Larsen & Toubro: On Track
Larsen & Toubro: On Track
18 October 2010
1500
1. Post-goodwill amortisation and pre-exceptional items year to Mar, fully diluted
Accounting standard: Local GAAP
Source: Company data, RBS forecasts
1000
500
2Q earnings in-line adjusted for one offs
LART.BO Sensex L&T reported 2Q11 sales of Rs93.3bn (up 17.8% yoy) ahead of our expectations driven by
strong growth in its core E&C business. Margins remained flat yoy, slightly below our
Market capitalisation expectations, as lower manufacturing costs (as a percentage of net sales) offset higher staff
Rs1.20t (US$27.07bn)
costs and other expenses. Reported profit came in at Rs6.9bn (up Rs25.5%yoy). Adjusting
Average (12M) daily turnover
Rs2650.40m (US$57.70m) for one offs in other expenses, other income and interest (cRs500m), profit was in line with
Sector: BBG AP Eng & Mach
our estimates. Order inflow remained strong at Rs204.6bn (up 11.4% yoy); while the order
RIC: LART.BO, LT IN backlog stood at Rs1.154tn (up 41.4% yoy).
Priced Rs1988.60 at close 15 Oct 2010.
Source: Bloomberg
Comfortably placed on FY11 inflow guidance; execution cycle is lengthening
We believe the company is comfortably placed to meet its FY11 inflow guidance of Rs87bn
(up 25% yoy), given order inflows of Rs360bn in 1H11 (up 29% yoy) and with projects like
the cRs120bn Hyderabad metro order (for which L&T is the lowest bidder). The current order
book (at Rs1.15trn) is at an all time high. However, the inflow is being skewed gradually
towards the power sector and large orders, which will lengthen the execution cycle for the
company. Execution time for the current order book is 27 months as compared to 22 months
one year ago.
Macro outlook remains exciting, but medium-term return ratios could be subdued
The macro outlook for L&T remains exciting, in our view, given the strong pipeline of projects
in the infrastructure space. This is positive for the company not only as an engineering
Researched by contractor, but also as an asset owner and developer. However, while the company does not
RBS Equities (India) Limited
need immediate funding, it may have to shore up its balance sheet as it wins more such
Institutional Team projects. This may lead to continued fund raising, which might dampen return ratios in the
medium term until projects start yielding cash flows. This, in our view, will limit valuation
Mafatlal Chambers – C Wing, Ground
Floor, N.M. Joshi Marg, Lower Parel (E), upside. We roll forward our DCF valuation of the standalone business by a quarter, which
Mumbai 400 013, India. Tel : +91 022 takes our target price to Rs1,928. We maintain our Hold rating on the stock.
6754 8411 Fax : +91 022 6754 8420
L&T reported 2Q11 earnings in line with our estimates adjusted for one offs. We believe
that the company is well placed to meet its FY11 revenue and order inflow guidance as
execution and order flow pick up in 2H11. Hold maintained.
L&T reported 2Q11 sales of Rs93.3bn (up 17.8% yoy) driven by strong growth in its core E&C
business. Margins remained flat yoy, as lower manufacturing costs (as % of net sales) offset
higher staff costs and other expenses (other expenses included exchange related losses
cRs600m) during the quarter. Other income saw a sharp jump during the quarter to Rs3.8bn (up
80.5% yoy) but included one off income of Rs700m due to the sale of its Satyam stake and other
assets. Interest costs also increased during the quarter to Rs1.9bn (up 53% yoy) but included a
R320m one-off related to employee provident funds. Higher-than-anticipated other income meant
that profit for the quarter came in at Rs6.9bn (up Rs25.5% yoy).However, adjusting for one offs in
other expenses, other income and interest (cRs500m), profit was Rs6.54bn, up 18% yoy. Order
inflow for the quarter remained strong at Rs204.6bn (up 11.4% yoy); while the order backlog stood
at Rs1.154tn (up 41.4% yoy).
1,400,000 300,000
1,200,000
250,000
1,000,000
200,000
800,000
150,000
600,000
100,000
400,000
50,000
200,000
0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
Revenues were lower-than-expected in 1Q11 but picked up in 2Q11 reflecting the nature of the
business. We expect revenues to pick up further in 2H11 and the company to largely meet its
FY11 revenue guidance. However, we expect margins to contract by about 100bp in 2H11 on a
yoy basis, as metal prices rise.
16% 78%
14% 77%
12% 76%
10% 75%
8% 74%
6% 73%
4% 72%
2% 71%
0% 70%
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
Segment PBIT
E&C 9002 6939 29.7% 17169 13931 23.2%
E&E 868 1060 -18.1% 1606 1740 -7.7%
Machinery & Ind products 1156 928 24.5% 2286 1882 21.5%
Others 172 176 -2.2% 507 218 132.6%
Total 11198 9103 23.0% 21567 17770 21.4%
Less: Net Interest 1901 1310 45.1% 3324 2406 38.2%
Unallocable Income 1438 825 74.3% 2317 12052 -80.8%
Others 0 108 -100.0% 52 193 -73.2%
PBT 10735 8511 26.1% 20508 27223 -24.7%
Capital Employed
E&C 73342 71078 3.2% 73342 71078 3.2%
E&E 11571 11301 2.4% 11571 11301 2.4%
Machinery & Ind products 2723 1935 40.7% 2723 1935 40.7%
Others 2228 1680 32.6% 2228 1680 32.6%
Total 89864 85993 4.5% 89864 85993 4.5%
Unallocable Capital Employed 187628 132307 41.8% 187628 132307 41.8%
Total Capital Employed 277492 218300 27.1% 277492 218300 27.1%
PBIT Margins
E&C 11.2% 10.1% 111bp 11.7% 10.4% 134bp
E&E 12.9% 15.0% -206bp 11.3% 13.6% -223bp
Machinery & Ind products 16.6% 18.2% -166bp 18.3% 19.9% -154bp
Others 10.8% 19.1% -832bp 18.0% 12.9% 512bp
Total 11.7% 11.1% 59bp 12.3% 11.2% 103bp
Source: Company data
We have updated our valuations for L&T’s subsidiaries as per the latest balance sheet. We value
L&T IDPL at 1.5x total equity invested, which we believe is fair as some of its projects have
started generating cash flows and the pipeline of projects is strong. We continue to value InfoTech
at 11x FY11F PE based on the average valuation for mid-tier Indian IT companies under our
coverage. We also continue to value L&T Finance at 1.5x FY11F P/B, given its average RoE of
15% for the past four years and the fact that it has strong growth plans.
3,000 3,000
2,500 2,500
2,000 2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
0
0 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10
L&T (EV/EBITDA 8 x)
LT PER (15X) PER (25X) PER (35 X) (EV/EBITDA 15 x) (EV/EBITDA 25 x)
Balance sheet
Performance FY09A FY10A FY11F FY12F FY13F FY11F FY12F FY13F FY11F FY12F FY13F
Sales growth (%) 35.7 9.12 19.1 30.2 12.8 25.9 16.5 10.1 16.2 16.5 16.2
EBITDA growth (%) 32.1 22.8 18.6 25.0 20.9 32.9 16.0 7.46 1.11 14.8 18.3
EBIT growth (%) 31.1 21.7 18.4 25.6 21.4 35.3 16.2 7.28 0.53 14.9 18.7
Normalised EPS growth (%) 34.3 14.6 22.1 28.8 21.7 34.1 16.9 12.9 -2.23 14.2 17.7
EBITDA margin (%) 11.6 13.0 12.9 12.4 13.3 20.1 20.0 19.5 8.31 8.18 8.33
EBIT margin (%) 10.7 11.9 11.8 11.4 12.3 19.0 18.9 18.4 7.88 7.77 7.94
Net profit margin (%) 7.98 8.44 8.65 8.56 9.23 14.0 14.0 14.4 6.29 6.16 6.24
Return on avg assets (%) 9.44 8.35 8.39 8.80 9.03 10.8 10.4 9.93 9.55 9.05 9.05
Return on avg equity (%) 24.6 20.3 19.3 21.2 21.8 31.7 29.0 26.1 28.6 26.3 25.3
ROIC (%) 29.8 21.4 21.7 24.1 24.4 86.0 72.4 73.9 66.1 48.0 47.1
ROIC - WACC (%) 19.1 10.7 11.0 13.5 13.7 74.9 61.3 62.7 54.8 36.6 35.7
year to Mar year to Mar year to Mar
Valuation
EV/sales (x) 3.56 3.16 2.64 2.02 1.76 2.71 2.21 1.90 1.33 1.13 0.95
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.8 24.3 20.4 16.3 13.2 13.5 11.1 9.74 16.0 13.8 11.4
EV/EBITDA @ tgt price (x) 29.8 23.6 19.7 15.8 12.8 16.2 13.4 11.9 11.1 9.52 7.82
EV/EBIT (x) 33.4 26.6 22.3 17.7 14.3 14.3 11.7 10.3 16.9 14.5 12.0
EV/invested capital (x) 8.75 7.27 6.40 5.32 4.71 8.91 8.07 7.10 7.04 5.76 4.77
Price/book value (x) 9.56 6.55 5.65 4.78 4.03 6.01 4.74 3.83 5.66 4.62 3.78
Equity FCF yield (%) -1.34 3.00 2.85 2.44 4.44 2.23 4.28 4.49 1.16 3.76 4.50
Normalised PE (x) 44.0 38.4 31.4 24.4 20.1 21.4 18.3 16.2 22.1 19.3 16.4
Norm PE @tgt price (x) 42.7 37.2 30.5 23.7 19.4 25.2 21.6 19.1 15.6 13.7 11.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.51 0.63 0.70 0.78 0.93 0.79 0.87 0.95 0.94 1.02 1.07
year to Mar year to Mar year to Mar
Per share data FY09A FY10A FY11F FY12F FY13F Solvency FY09A FY10A FY11F FY12F FY13F
Tot adj dil sh, ave (m) 598.9 603.2 603.2 603.2 603.2 Net debt to equity (%) 7.23 -14.2 -16.2 -14.6 -20.2
Reported EPS (INR) 58.1 72.5 65.6 81.5 99.1 Net debt to tot ass (%) 2.49 -5.55 -6.26 -5.49 -7.93
Normalised EPS (INR) 45.2 51.8 63.3 81.5 99.1 Net debt to EBITDA 0.23 -0.54 -0.60 -0.51 -0.70
Dividend per share (INR) 10.2 12.5 14.0 15.4 18.6 Current ratio (x) 1.34 1.38 1.42 1.40 1.46
Equity FCF per share (INR) -26.6 59.7 56.6 48.5 88.3 Operating CF int cov (x) -2.60 -12.5 -8.93 -9.01 -12.8
Book value per sh (INR) 208.0 303.6 352.0 415.8 493.7 Dividend cover (x) 3.78 3.15 3.95 3.57 4.47
year to Mar year to Mar
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is the largest engineering and construction conglomerate in India. The company also has 140
business interests in electrical equipment, construction equipment, information technology, defence equipment 130
and equipment leasing. Until FY04, L&T was the largest manufacturer of cement in India, before it sold off its 120
cement business to Grasim Industries. Recently, L&T partnered with global power equipment major Mitsubishi 110
Heavy to manufacture main plant power-generation equipment with supercritical technology. L&T derives business 100
mainly from capex in infrastructure and industry.
90
80
70
Oct Feb May Sep Dec Apr Aug Nov Mar Jul Oct
07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 10 10 10
Strengths 4
FIIs Custodians
Dominant player in India's non-power engineering and construction businesses, with a diversified customer base. 17% 4% Domestic
Institution
Experienced in handling large projects and has superior project-execution skills. 37%
Weaknesses 2
Non -
The company is predominantly a domestic play, but it needs to expand its foothold in global EPC projects. Institution
42%
Opportunities 5
The thrust by the Government of India in terms of infrastructure development provides new opportunities for the Source: Bombay Stock Exchange
company, such as turnkey solutions. Rising oil prices open capex opportunities in refining and infrastructure
construction projects in Gulf countries.
Market data
Threats 1
Headquarters
Any slowdown in infrastructure development and the investment upcycle would likely hamper the company. Any Larsen & Toubro Ltd, L&T House, Ballard
adverse change in government policies would also likely have an effect. Estate, Mumbai - 400001, India
Website
Scoring range is 1-5 (high score is good)
www.larsentoubro.com
Shares in issue
602.2m
Freefloat
100%
Majority shareholders
Life Insurance Corporation of India (19%), L&T
Employee Welfare Trust (12%), UTI MF (9%)
The macro picture for India has been constructive recently, with GDP and industrial production tracking in line with 170
expectations, while portfolio allocators continue to favour the market for its domestic consumption orientation. 160
However, these positives have already been priced in and we believe risks are rising from the increasing double 150
130
The country view is set in consultation with the relevant company analyst but is the ultimate responsibility of the Strategy Team.
120
110
100
90
Oct Feb May Sep Jan May Aug Dec Mar Jul Oct
07 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10
MarketIndex
Supplier power 3- 30
RM suppliers have a negligible impact on the company. However, L&T is exposed to increases in the prices of key 25
raw materials such as steel, cement, etc.
20
Barriers to entry 4+ 15
High, as the project nature of business calls for experience in diverse end-user sectors and strong execution skills. 10
Customer power 1+ 5
Emergence of newer companies has given customers more choice. However, for specific projects, customers may 0
have to turn to L&T. Buy Hold Sell
Substitute products 2+
Source: Bloomberg
There are substitutes in individual sectors, such as power, construction etc, but none with experience as diverse
as L&T's.
Rivalry 1-
Larsen & Toubro does face some rivalry. Rivals in individual sectors include BHEL in power, HCC in construction
etc.
Scoring range 1-5 (high score is good) Plus = getting better Minus = getting worse
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