Checkpoint 14.

2 | Math T P3

Checkpoint 14.2
1. (a) P (H ) = 0.3, P (T ) = 0.7
P (HH ) = 0.3  0.3 = 0.09

(b) P (HHT ) + P (HTH ) + p(THH )

= 3(0.3  0.3  0.7)
= 0.189

2. (a) P (A) = 0.7, P (B ) = 0.9

P (A  B ) = P (A ) P (B )
= 0.7  0.9
= 0.63

(b) P (A  B ) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A  B )
= 0.7 + 0.9 − 0.63
= 0.97

3. (a) P (A) = 0.8, P (B ) = 0.6, P (A  B ) = 0.7

P (A  B ) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A  B )
0.7 = 0.8 + 0.6 − P (A  B )
P (A  B ) = 0.8 + 0.6 − 0.7
= 0.7

(b) P (A'B') = P (A  B )'

= 1 − 0.7
= 0.3

4. (a) P (A ) = 0.6, P (B ) = 0.7, P (A B ) = 0.8

P (A  B ) = P (A B )P (B )
= 0.8  0.7
= 0.56

P (A  B)
P (B A) =
(b)
P (A)
0.56
=
0.6
= 0.933

(c) P (A  B ) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A  B )
= 0.6 + 0.7 − 0.56
= 0.74

1
 Checkpoint 14.2 | Math T P3

5. P (A ) = 0.3, P (B A ) = 0.8, P (A  B ) = 0.9

P (A  B ) = P (B A )P (A )
= 0.8  0.3
= 0.24
P (B ) = P (A  B ) − P (A ) + P (A  B )
= 0.9 − 0.3 + 0.24
= 0.84

6. (a) P (B ) = 0.4 , P (A' B ) = 0.8, P (B A') = 0.5

P (A B ) = 1 − 0.8 = 0.2
P (A  B ) = P (A B )P (B )
= 0.2  0.4
= 0.08

(b) P (A'B ) = P (A' B )P (B )

= 0.8  0.4
= 0.32
P (B  A') = P (B A')P (A')
0.32 = 0.5P (A')
P (A') = 0.64
P (A ) = 1 − 0.64 = 0.36
 P (A  B ) = 0.36 + 0.4 − 0.08
= 0.68

7. (a) 𝑃(𝐴𝑤𝑖𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴𝐻 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴𝐻 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴𝐻 ) + ⋯

1 1 3 1 5
= +( ) +( ) +⋯
2 2 2
1
2 2
= 2 =3
1
1 − (2)
𝑃(𝐵𝑤𝑖𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝐻 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝐻 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝐻 ) + ⋯
1 2 1 4 1 6
=( ) +( ) +( ) +⋯
2 2 2
1 2
(2) 1
= 2 =3
1
1−( )
2
2 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐴𝑤𝑖𝑛 ) = = 2 ( ) = 2𝑃(𝐵𝑤𝑖𝑛 ) (𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑛)
3 3

(b) Let 𝑥 = Probability of obtaining head

𝑃(𝐴𝑤𝑖𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴𝐻 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴𝐻 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴𝐻 ) + ⋯
= 𝑥 + (1 − 𝑥)2 𝑥 + (1 − 𝑥)4 𝑥 + ⋯
= 𝑥[1 + (1 − 𝑥)2 + (1 − 𝑥)4 + ⋯ ]
1
= 𝑥[ ]
1 − (1 − 𝑥)2
1
= 𝑥( )
1 − 1 + 2𝑥 − 𝑥 2
1
=
2−𝑥
2
 Checkpoint 14.2 | Math T P3

𝑃(𝐵𝑤𝑖𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝐻 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝐻 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝑇 𝐴 𝑇 𝐵𝐻 ) + ⋯

= 𝑥(1 − 𝑥) + (1 − 𝑥)3 𝑥 + (1 − 𝑥)5 𝑥 + ⋯
= 𝑥(1 − 𝑥)[1 + (1 − 𝑥)2 + (1 − 𝑥)4 + ⋯ ]
1
= 𝑥(1 − 𝑥) [ ]
1 − (1 − 𝑥)2
1
= 𝑥(1 − 𝑥) ( )
1 − 1 + 2𝑥 − 𝑥 2
1−𝑥
=
2−𝑥
𝑃(𝐴𝑤𝑖𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐵𝑤𝑖𝑛 )
1 1−𝑥
=
2−𝑥 2−𝑥
2 − 𝑥 = (1 − 𝑥)(2 − 𝑥)
2 − 𝑥 = 2 − 3𝑥 + 𝑥 2
𝑥 2 − 2𝑥 = 0
𝑥(𝑥 − 2) = 0
𝑥 = 0(omitted) 𝑜𝑟 𝑥 = 2

8. (a) P (D ) = 0.02
P (D' D' D' D' D' D' D' D' D' D') = 0.98 10 = 0.817

(b) p = 0.02, q = 0.98

p(x  1)
= P ( x = 0 ) + P ( x = 1)
= 10 C 0 (0.02)0 (0.98)10 + 10 C 1 (0.02)1 (0.98)9
= 0.8171 + 0.1667
= 0.984

9. (a) P(L M) = 0.9, P(M) = 0.4, P(L M') = 0.1

(b) P (L  M ) = P (L M )P (M )
= 0.9  0.4
= 0.36
P (L  M') = P (L M')P (M')
= 0.1  0.6
= 0.06
 P (L ) = P (L  M ) + P (L  M')
= 0.36 + 0.06
= 0.42
P (L  M ) 0.36
 P (M L ) = = = 0.857
P (L ) 0.42

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 Checkpoint 14.2 | Math T P3

10. P(F ) = 0.46, P(L M) = 0.05, P(L F ) = 0.02

P (M  L )
P (M L ) =
P (L )
0.54  0.05
=
(0.46  0.02) + (0.54  0.05)
0.027
=
0.0092 + 0.027
135
=
181
= 0.746

11. Let I = Ill person

D = Diagnosed positive with rare illness
P (D I ) = 0.98, P (D I') = 0.03, P (I ) = 0.001
P (I  D ) = P (D I )P (I ) = 0.98  0.001 = 0.00098
P (D  I') = P (D I')P (' I ) = 0.03  0.999 = 0.02997
P (D ) = P (I  D ) + P (D  I') = 0.00098 + 0.02997 = 0.03095
P (I  D ) 0.00098
 P (I D ) =
98
= = = 0.0317
P (D ) 0.03095 3095
Probability of being ill with the rare illness is just 3.2% even when a person is tested positive is a
surprise since the reliability of the test is high. The reason is the illness is rare so the probability of a
person who has the illness and tested positive is very small for the population.

12. (a) X = 6 : {(1,5), (2,4 ), (3,3), (4 ,2), (5,1)}

5
P(X = 6) =
36

(b) X  6 : {(1,6 ), (2,5), (2,6 ), (3,4 ), (3,5), (3,6 ), (4 ,3), (4 ,4 ), (4 ,5), (4 ,6 ), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4 ), (5,5), (5,6 ),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4 ), (6,5), (6,6 )}
21 7
P(X  6) = =
36 12

(c) X = 7 : {(1,6 ), (2,5), (3,4 ), (4 ,3), (5,2), (6,1)}

6 1
P ( X = 7) = =
36 6

13. (a) 1
P (A) = 2p, P (B ) = 3p 2 ,0  p 
2
P (A  B ) = P (A) P (B )
= 2 p  3p 2
= 6p 3

(b) 81
6p 3 =
500
81  1  3 3
p=3   = 0.027 = 0.3 =
500  6  10

4
 Checkpoint 14.2 | Math T P3

(c)  3  3
2
P (A ) = 2  = 0.6, P (B ) = 3  = 0.27
 10   10 
P (A'B )
P (A' B ) =
P (B )
P (A')P (B )
=
P (B )
= P (A')
= 1 − 0.6
= 0.4
2
=
5

14. (a) 0.75 0.75 27

P (SSS ) = 0.75   = = 0.0527
2 4 512

(b) P (SSS ') + P (SS ' S )

0.75  0.75   0.75  0.75
= 0.75   1 −  + 0.75   1 − 
2  4   2  2
= (0.75  0.375  0.8125) + (0.75  0.625  0.375)
= 0.2285 + 0.1758
= 0.404