Illustrate Permutation Of Objects

What is Permutation?
A permutation is an arrangement, or listing, of objects in which the order is important.
In previous lessons, we looked at examples of the number of permutations of n things taken n at
a time. Permutation is used when we are counting without replacement and the order matters. If
the order does not matter then we can use combinations.

A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects, with regard to the order of the

arrangement.

For example, suppose we have a set of three letters: A, B, and C. We might ask how many
ways we can arrange 2 letters from that set. Each possible arrangement would be an example of
a permutation. The complete list of possible permutations would be: AB, AC, BA, BC, CA, and CB.

When they refer to permutations, statisticians use a specific terminology. They describe
permutations as n distinct objects taken r at a time. Translation: n refers to the number of
objects from which the permutation is formed; and r refers to the number of objects used to form
the permutation. Consider the example from the previous paragraph. The permutation was
formed from 3 letters (A, B, and C), so n = 3; and the permutation consisted of 2 letters, so r = 2.

Computing the number of permutations. The number of permutations of n objects taken r

at a time is

nPr = n(n - 1)(n - 2) ... (n - r + 1) = n! / (n - r)!

Note the distinction between a permutation and a combination . A combination focuses on

the selection of objects without regard to the order in which they are selected. A permutation, in
contrast, focuses on the arrangement of objects with regard to the order in which they are
arranged. Thus, the letters AB and BA represent two different permutations, because the order is
different. However, they represent only 1 combination; because order is not important in a
combination.

Example 1

Consider arranging 3 letters: A, B, C. How many ways can this be done?

The possible permutations are

ABC, ACB,
BAC, BCA,
CAB, CBA.

Hence, there are six distinct arrangements.

Example 2

In how many ways can 4 different resistors be arranged in series?

[This is very similar to the first Example on this page.]

Since there are 4 objects, the number of ways is

4! = 24 ways
 Derives Formula In Finding The Number Of
Permutation Of N Object Taken R At A Time

What is the Permutation Formula?

In general P(n, r) means that the number of permutations of n things taken r at a time. We
can either use reasoning to solve these types of permutation problems or we can use the
permutation formula.

The formula for permutation is

Example:

A license plate begins with three letters. If the possible letters are A, B, C, D and E, how many
different permutations of these letters can be made if no letter is used more than once?

Solution:

Using reasoning:

For the first letter, there are 5 possible choices. After that letter is chosen, there are 4 possible
choices. Finally, there are 3 possible choices.

5 × 4 × 3 = 60

Using the permutation formula:

The problem involves 5 things (A, B, C, D, E) taken 3 at a time.

There are 60 different permutations for the license plate.

Permutations
There are basically two types of permutation:

 Repetition is Allowed: such as the lock above. It could be "333".

 No Repetition: for example the first three people in a running race. You can't be
first and second.

1. Permutations with Repetition

These are the easiest to calculate.

When a thing has n different types ... we have n choices each time!

For example: choosing 3 of those things, the permutations are:

 n×n×n
(n multiplied 3 times)

More generally: choosing r of something that has n different types, the permutations are:

n × n × ...  (r times)

(In other words, there are n possibilities for the first choice, THEN there are n possibilites for the
second choice, and so on, multplying each time.)

Which is easier to write down using an  exponent  of r:

n × n × ... (r times) = nr

Example: in the lock above, there are 10 numbers to choose from (0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) and we
choose 3 of them:

10 × 10 × ... (3 times) = 103 = 1,000 permutations

So, the formula is simply:

nr

where n is the number of things to

choose from,
and we choose r of them,
repetition is allowed,
and order matters.

2. Permutations without Repetition

In this case, we have to reduce the number of available choices each time.

Example: what order could 16 pool balls be in?

After choosing, say, number "14" we can't choose it again.

So, our first choice has 16 possibilites, and our next choice has 15 possibilities, then 14, 13, 12,
11, ... etc. And the total permutations are:

16 × 15 × 14 × 13 × ... = 20,922,789,888,000

But maybe we don't want to choose them all, just 3 of them, and that is then:

16 × 15 × 14 = 3,360

In other words, there are 3,360 different ways that 3 pool balls could be arranged out of 16 balls.

Without repetition our choices get reduced each time.

But how do we write that mathematically? Answer: we use the " factorial function "

The factorial function (symbol: !) just means to multiply a series of

descending natural numbers. Examples:

 4! = 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24
 7! = 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5,040
 1! = 1
 Note: it is generally agreed that 0! = 1. It may seem funny that multiplying no
numbers together gets us 1, but it helps simplify a lot of equations.

So, when we want to select all of the billiard balls the permutations are:

16! = 20,922,789,888,000

But when we want to select just 3 we don't want to multiply after 14. How do we do that? There is
a neat trick: we divide by 13!

16 × 15 × 14 × 13 × 12 ...13 × 12 ...  =  16 × 15 × 14

That was neat. The 13 × 12 × ... etc gets "cancelled out", leaving only 16 × 15 × 14.

The formula is written:

n!(n − r)!

where n is the number of things to

choose from,
and we choose r of them,
no repetitions,
order matters.

Example Our "order of 3 out of 16 pool balls example" is:

16 20,922,789,888,
16!
! 000
=
= =
3,360
(16- 13
6,227,020,800
3)! !

(which is just the same as: 16 × 15 × 14 = 3,360)

Example: How many ways can first and second place be awarded to 10 people?

10 3,628,8
10!
! 00
=
= =
90
(10-
8! 40,320
2)!

(which is just the same as: 10 × 9 = 90)

Notation
Instead of writing the whole formula, people use different notations such as these:

Example: P(10,2) = 90

Solving Problems Involving Permutation

How to use the Permutation Formula to solve word problems?

Example:

In how many ways can a president, a treasurer and a secretary be chosen from among 7
candidates?
 Solution:

Using reasoning:

For the first position, there are 7 possible choices. After that candidate is chosen, there
are 6 possible choices. Finally, there are 5 possible choices.

7 × 6 × 5 = 210

Using permutation formula:

The problem involves 7 candidates taken 3 at a time.

There are 210 possible ways to choose a president, a

treasurer and a secretary be chosen from among 7
candidates

Example:

A zip code contains 5 digits. How many different zip codes can be made with the digits 0–
9 if no digit is used more than once and the first digit is not 0?

Solution:

Using reasoning:

For the first position, there are 9 possible choices (since 0 is not allowed). After that
number is chosen, there are 9 possible choices (since 0 is now allowed). Then, there are
8 possible choices, 7 possible choices and 6 possible choices.

9 × 9 × 8 × 7 × 6 = 27,216

Using permutation formula:

We can’t include the first digit in the formula because 0 is not allowed.

For the first position, there are 9 possible choices (since 0 is not allowed). For the next 4
positions, we are selecting from 9 digits.

Example: Find the number of words, with or without meaning, that can be formed with
the letters of the word ‘CHAIR’.

Solution:
‘CHAIR’ contains 5 letters.

Therefore, the number of words that can be formed with these 5 letters = 5! = 5*4*3*2*1
= 120.

Example: Find the number of words, with or without meaning, that can be formed with
the letters of the word ‘INDIA’.

Solution:
The word ‘INDIA’ contains 5 letters and ‘I’ comes twice.

When a letter occurs more than once in a word, we divide the factorial of the number of
all letters in the word by the number of occurrences of each letter.
 Therefore, the number of words formed by ‘INDIA’ = 5!/2! = 60.

Example:Find the number of words, with or without meaning, that can be formed with
the letters of the word ‘SWIMMING?

Solution:

The word ‘SWIMMING contains 8 letters. Of which, I occurs twice and M occurs twice.

Therefore, the number of words formed by this word = 8! / (2!*2!) = 10080.

Illustrate Combination Of Objects

A combination is a selection of all or part of a set of objects, without regard to the order
in which objects are selected.

For example, suppose we have a set of three letters: A, B, and C. We might ask how
many ways we can select 2 letters from that set. Each possible selection would be an
example of a combination. The complete list of possible selections would be: AB, AC, and
BC.

Computing the number of combinations. The number of Combinations of n objects

taken r at a time is:

n Cr = n(n - 1)(n - 2) ... (n - r + 1)/r! = n! / r!(n - r)! = nPr / r!

Note that AB and BA are considered to be one combination, because the order in which
objects are selected does not matter. This is the key distinction between a combination
and a permutation. A combination focuses on the selection of objects without regard to
the order in which they are selected. A permutation, in contrast, focuses on the
arrangement of objects with regard to the order in which they are arranged.

Combinations
There are also two types of combinations (remember the order does not matter now):

 Repetition is Allowed: such as coins in your pocket (5,5,5,10,10)

 No Repetition: such as lottery numbers (2,14,15,27,30,33)

1. Combinations with Repetition

Actually, these are the hardest to explain, so we will come back to this later.

2. Combinations without Repetition

This is how  lotteries  work. The numbers are drawn one at a time, and if we have the lucky numbers (no
matter what order) we win!
 The easiest way to explain it is to:

 assume that the order does matter (ie permutations),

 then alter it so the order does not matter.

Going back to our pool ball example, let's say we just want to know which 3 pool balls are chosen, not the
order.

We already know that 3 out of 16 gave us 3,360 permutations.

But many of those are the same to us now, because we don't care what order!

For example, let us say balls 1, 2 and 3 are chosen. These are the possibilites:

Order does matter Order doesn't matter

1 2 3
1 3 2
2 1 3
123
2 3 1
3 1 2
3 2 1

So, the permutations have 6 times as many possibilites.

In fact there is an easy way to work out how many ways "1 2 3" could be placed in order, and we have already
talked about it. The answer is:

3! = 3 × 2 × 1 = 6

(Another example: 4 things can be placed in 4! = 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24 different ways, try it for yourself!)

So we adjust our permutations formula to reduce it by how many ways the objects could be in order
(because we aren't interested in their order any more):

That formula is so important it is often just written in big parentheses like this:

where n is the number of things to

choose from,
and we choose r of them,
no repetition,
order doesn't matter.

It is often called "n choose r" (such as "16 choose 3")

And is also known as the  Binomial Coefficient .

Notation
As well as the "big parentheses", people also use these notations:

Just remember the formula:

 n!r!(n − r)!
Example: Pool Balls (without order)

So, our pool ball example (now without order) is:

16!3!(16−3)! = 16!3! × 13!
= 20,922,789,888,0006 × 6,227,020,800

= 560

Or we could do it this way:

16×15×143×2×1 = 33606 = 560

It is interesting to also note how this formula is nice and symmetrical:

In other words choosing 3 balls out of 16, or choosing 13 balls out of 16 have the same number of
combinations.

16!3!(16−3)! = 16!13!(16−13)! = 16!3! × 13! = 560

Differentiates Permutation And Combination Of

N Objects

Permutation:

A selection of objects in which the order of the objects matters.

Example: The permutations of the letters in the set {a, b, c} are:

abc acb
bac bca
cab cba

A formula for the number of possible permutations of k objects from a set of n. This is usually
written nPk .

Formula:

Combination

The number of possible combination of r objects from a set on n objects.

Read aloud — n choose r.

 Formula :

Note:

where nPr is the formula for permutations of n objects taken r at a time.

After knowing the basic definition and formulas we can remember the difference in the following
easy way :

Permutation sounds complicated — hence remember it like this that every detail matters . Jimmy ,
Jolly and Marshal are different from Jolly , Marshal and Jimmy .Combinations on the other hands
are easy going — Jimmy , Jolly and Marshal is same as Jolly , Marshal and Jimmy.

Hence , Permutation is used for lists (order matters) and Combination for groups (order doesn’t
matter) .

Famous joke for the difference is : A “combination lock” should really be called a “permutation
lock”. The order you put in the numbers of lock matters. For example a true “combination lock”
would accept both 17–01–24 and 24–17–01 as correct.

Conclusion

The combination expression is a permutation (the number of ways to get x occurances of the
selected event )relationship divided by x! (number of different orders in which x event could be
chosen assuming all are distinguishable ).

What's the Difference?

In English we use the word "combination" loosely, without thinking if the order of things is important. In other
words:

"My fruit salad is a combination of apples, grapes and bananas" We don't care what order the fruits
are in, they could also be "bananas, grapes and apples" or "grapes, apples and bananas", its the same fruit
salad.

"The combination to the safe is 472". Now we do care about the order. "724" won't work, nor will "247". It
has to be exactly 4-7-2.

So, in Mathematics we use more precise language:

 When the order doesn't matter, it is a Combination.

 When the order does matter it is a Permutation.

 In other words:

A Permutation is an ordered Combination.

So, we should really call this a

"Permutation Lock"!

Derives Formula For Finding Number Of Combination

Of N Objects Taken r At a Time
Combination Formula

: A combination is the choice of r things from a set of n things without replacement. Order does
not matter in combination.

nCr=n!/(n−r)!r!=nPr/r!

 Number of combinations of n distinct things taking r at a time is  nCr

No. of ways to select first object from n distinct objects: n ways
No. of ways to select second object from (n-1) distinct objects: (n-1) ways
No. of ways to select third object from (n-2) distinct objects: (n-2) ways
No. of ways to select fourth object from (n-3) distinct objects: (n-3) ways
No. of ways to select rth object from (n-(r-1)) distinct objects: (n-(r-1)) ways
Completing selection r things of the original set of n things creates an ordered sub-
set of r elements.
∴ the number of ways to make a selection of r elements of the original set of n elements is n  (n  –
1) (n – 2) (n-3) . . . (n – (r  – 1)) or n  (n  – 1) (n  – 2) … (n  – r  + 1)
Let us consider the ordered sub-set of r elements and all its permutations. The total number of all
permutations of this sub-set is equal to r!  because r objects in every combination can be
rearranged in r! ways.
Hence, the total number of permutations of n different things taken r at a time is nCr ×r! On the
other hand, it is nPr.

nPr=nCr×r!

nCr=nPr/r!=n!/(n−r)!r!

Pascal's Triangle
 We can also use  Pascal's Triangle  to find the values. Go down to row "n" (the top row is 0), and then along
"r" places and the value there is our answer. Here is an extract showing row 16:

1 14 91 364 ...
1 15 105 455 1365 ...
1 16 120 560 1820 4368 ...

1. Combinations with Repetition

OK, now we can tackle this one ...

Let us say there are five flavors of icecream: banana, chocolate, lemon, strawberry and vanilla.

We can have three scoops. How many variations will there be?

Let's use letters for the flavors: {b, c, l, s, v}. Example selections include

 {c, c, c} (3 scoops of chocolate)

 {b, l, v} (one each of banana, lemon and vanilla)
 {b, v, v} (one of banana, two of vanilla)

(And just to be clear: There are n=5 things to choose from, and we choose r=3 of them.
Order does not matter, and we can repeat!)

Now, I can't describe directly to you how to calculate this, but I can show you a special technique that lets
you work it out.

Think about the ice cream being in boxes, we could say "move past the first box, then take 3
scoops, then move along 3 more boxes to the end" and we will have 3 scoops of chocolate!

So it is like we are ordering a robot to get our ice cream, but it doesn't change anything, we still get what we
want.

We can write this down as   (arrow means move, circle means scoop).

In fact the three examples above can be written like this:

{c, c, c} (3 scoops of chocolate):

{b, l, v} (one each of banana, lemon and vanilla):

{b, v, v} (one of banana, two of vanilla):

OK, so instead of worrying about different flavors, we have a simpler question: "how many different ways can
we arrange arrows and circles?"

Notice that there are always 3 circles (3 scoops of ice cream) and 4 arrows (we need to move 4 times to go
from the 1st to 5th container).

So (being general here) there are r + (n−1) positions, and we want to choose r of them to have circles.

This is like saying "we have r + (n−1) pool balls and want to choose r of them". In other words it is now like
the pool balls question, but with slightly changed numbers. And we can write it like this:

where n is the number of things to

choose from,
 and we choose r of them
repetition allowed,
order doesn't matter.

Interestingly, we can look at the arrows instead of the circles, and say "we have r + (n−1) positions and want
to choose (n−1) of them to have arrows", and the answer is the same:

So, what about our example, what is the answer?

(3+5−1 504
7!
)! 0
=
= =
35
3! 3! 6×2
(5−1)! ×4! 4

There are 35 ways of having 3 scoops from five flavors of icecream.

Solving Problems involving Permutation and

Combination
IN PERMUTATION:

Example : How many 2 digit numbers can you make using the digits 1, 2, 3 and 4 without
repeating the digits?
This time we want to use 2 digits at the time to make 2 digit numbers.
For the first digit we have 4 choices and for the second digit we have 3 choices (4 - 1
used already). Using the counting principle, the number of 2 digit numbers that we can
make using 4 digits is given by
4 × 3 = 12

The above problem is that of arranging 2 digits out of 4 in a specific order. This is also
called permutating.
The most important idea in permutations is that order is important. When you use the
digits 3 and 4 to make a number, the number 34 and 43 are different hence the order of
the digits 3 and 4 is important.
In general permutating r (2 digit in the above example) items out of a set of n (4 digits in
the above example) items is written as n P r and the formula is given by

n  P r = n! / (n - r)!

Example : Calculate
4 P 2

6 P 5

4 P 4

Solution:
4 P 2 = 4! / (4 - 2)! = 24/2 = 12

6  P  5 = 6! / (6 - 5)! = 6×5×4×3×2×1 / 1! = 720

4  P 4  = 4! / (4 - 4)! = 4! / 0! = 4! = 4×3×2×1 = 24 (We now understand the need to define
0! = 1)
 Example : How many 3 letter words can we make with the letters in the word LOVE?
Solution: There are 4 letters in the word love and making making 3 letter words is
similar to arranging these 3 letters and order is important since LOV and VOL are
different words because of the order of the same letters L, O and V. Hence it is a
permutation problem. The number of words is given by
4 P 3 = 4! / (4 - 3)! = 24

IN COMBINATION:

Example : How many lines can you draw using 3 non collinear (not in a single line) points
A, B and C on a plane?

Solution:
You need two points to draw a line. The order is not important. Line AB is the same as
line BA. The problem is to select 2 points out of 3 to draw different lines. If we proceed
as we did with permutations, we get the following pairs of points to draw lines.
AB , AC
BA , BC
CA , CB
There is a problem: line AB is the same as line BA, same for lines AC and CA and BC and
CB.
The lines are: AB, BC and AC ; 3 lines only.
So in fact we can draw 3 lines and not 6 and that's because in this problem the order of
the points A, B and C is not important.
This is a combination problem: combining 2 items out of 3 and is written as follows:

 C r = n! / [ (n - r)! r! ]
n

The number of combinations is equal to the number of permuations divided by r! to

eliminates those counted more than once because the order is not important.

Example : Calculate
3 C 2

5 C 5

Solution:
3 C 2 = 3! / [ (3 - 2)!2! ] = 6 / [1 × 2] = 3 (problem of points and lines solved above in

example 6)
5 C 5 = 5! / [(5 - 5)!5! ] = 5! / [0!5!] = 5! / [1 × 5!] = 1 (there is only one way to select

(without order) 5 items from 5 items and to select all of them once!)
Example 8:We need to form a 5 a side team in a class of 12 students. How many different
teams can be formed?
Solution:
There is nothing that indicates that the order in which the team members are selected is
imoportant and therefore it is a combination problem. Hence the number of teams is
given by
12 C 5 = 12! / [ (12 - 5)!5! ] = 792

Illustrates Events, Union And Intersection Of Events

An event is something that has happened and is always associated with an

experiment.

For Example: if we are performing the experiment of throwing a dice then there can be
 numerous events associated with it, one of which can be the number on top be a

multiple of 3.

There are different operations performed on events. Union is one of them. As the name

implies union means joining of two things irrespective of their individual behavior.  The

union of two events gives us a compound event.

Union of events simply mean the condition of occurrence of wither of the events. It is not

necessary that all events must hold true. The condition of at least one holds. More than

one or even all events under the union operation can be true simultaneously.

Formula
Suppose A and B are two events associated with a random experiment. Then the union
of A and B is represented by A ∪∪ B.

The probability of union of two events is given by:

P(A∪B)P(A∪B)  =  P(A)+P(B)P(A)+P(B)  –  P(A∩B)P(A∩B)

Here, P (A) is the probability of event A, P (B) is the probability of event

B.Also,  P(A∩B)P(A∩B)  is the probability of the intersection of events A and B.

When A and BA and B are two independent or mutually exclusive events that is the

occurrence of event AA does not affect the occurrence of event B at all, in such a
case, P(A∩B)P(A∩B) = 0 and hence we have,

P(A∪B)P(A∪B) = P(A)+P(B)P(A)+P(B)

If we have more than two independent events say A, B & C, then in that case the union
probability is given by:

P(A∪B∪C)P(A∪B∪C) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)P(A)+P(B)+P(C)

If AB and CAB and C are not independent or mutually exclusive then the union

probability is given by:

P(A∪B∪C)P(A∪B∪C) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)P(A)+P(B)+P(C) – P(A∩B)–P(B∩C)–P(A∩C)P(A∩B)–
P(B∩C)–P(A∩C)

- P(A∩B∩C)P(A∩B∩C)

Examples
Some examples are illustrated on union of events:
Example 1: Consider the experiment of rolling a dice. Find the probability of getting an
even number of a number that is multiple of 3.

Solution:

Here S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, so n (S) = 6

 Let A be the event of getting an even number. So A = {2, 4, 6}.
→n(A)→n(A) = 3
Hence we have P(A)P(A) = 3636
Let B be the event of getting a number that is multiple of 3. So B = {3, 6}
→n(B)→n(B) = 2
Hence we have P(B)P(B) = 2626
We can clearly see that the events are not mutually exclusive.
That is A∩BA∩B = {6}, => n(A∩B)n(A∩B) = 1 => P(A∩B)P(A∩B) = 1616
Thus the compound probability is given by:
P(A∩B)P(A∩B) = P(A)+P(B)–P(A∩B)P(A)+P(B)–P(A∩B) = 3636 + 2626 - 1616 = 4646 = 2323
Example 2: Christ rolled a fair die and wished to find the probability of "the number that
turns up is odd or divisible by 5".
From the sample space, Let A be the event "an odd number turns up" and the B is the
event "the number that turns up is divisible by 5
".
Solution: Sample space for a die is: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
From the given statement: A = {1, 3, 5} and B = {5}.
Let M = The number that turns up is odd or divisible by 5
So M = A ∪∪ B = {1, 3, 5}and P(M) = P(A ∪∪ B) = n(A∪B)n(S)n(A∪B)n(S) = 3636 = 1212  = 0.5

Probability Of The Intersection Of Events

To calculate the probability of the intersection of events, we first have to verify
whether they are dependent or independent.

The probability of the intersection of independent events is:

P(A∩B)= P(A)xP(B)
The probability of the intersection of dependent events is:
P(A∩B)= P(A/B)xP(B)

Let's note that when the events are independent, P(A/B)xP(A) , then the second
formula in fact is always true.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

KEY POINTS

 Probability is a number that can be assigned to outcomes and events. It always is

greater than or equal to zero, and less than or equal to one.
 The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes must equal 11.
 If two events have no outcomes in common, the probability that one or the other
occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities.
 The probability that an event does not occur is 11 minus the probability that the
event does occur.
 Two events AA and BB are independent if knowing that one occurs does not
change the probability that the other occurs.
 KEY TERMS

 experiment: Something that is done that produces measurable results, called

outcomes.
 outcome: One of the individual results that can occur in an experiment.
 event: A subset of the sample space.
 sample space: The set of all outcomes of an experiment.

Illustrates The Probability Of A Union Of Two

Events
We are often interested in finding the probability that one of multiple events occurs.
Suppose we are playing a card game, and we will win if the next card drawn is either a
heart or a king. We would be interested in finding the probability of the next card being
a heart or a king. The union of two events  E and F, written E∪F, is the event that
occurs if either or both events occur.

P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E∩F)
Suppose the spinner in Figure 2 is spun. We want to find the probability of spinning
orange or spinning a b

There are a total of 6 sections, and 3 of them are orange. So the probability of spinning orange is
3/6=1/2.  There are a total of 6 sections, and 2 of them have a b. So the probability of spinning
a b is 2/6=1/3. If we added these two probabilities, we would be counting the sector that is both
orange and a b twice. To find the probability of spinning an orange or a b, we need to subtract
the probability that the sector is both orange and has a b.

1/2+1/3+-1/6=2/3

The probability of spinning orange or a b is 2/3.

A GENERAL NOTE: PROBABILITY OF THE UNION

OF TWO EVENTS
The probability of the union of two events E and  F  (written E U F) equals the sum of the
probability of E and the probability of F minus the probability of E and F occurring together
( which is called the intersection of E and F and is written as E∩F)

P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E∩F)
 Illustrate Mutually Exclusive Events
If two events are mutually exclusive, it means that they cannot occur at the same time. For
example, the two possible outcomes of a coin flip are mutually exclusive; when you flip a coin, it
cannot land both heads and tails simultaneously. By contrast, rain and sunshine are not mutually
exclusive; while rare, it is possible to have a sunshower, when it rains while the sun still shines.

Examples with playing cards

Let’s look at a few examples of mutual exclusivity involving playing cards. If we have a single
standard deck of 52 cards, which of the following pairs of events are mutually exclusive?

A) Drawing a red card or drawing a king

B) Drawing a red card or drawing a club
C) Drawing a black card or drawing a spade
D) Drawing a black card or drawing an ace

The correct answer is B). Drawing a red card and drawing a club
cannot occur at the same time, because all clubs are black; therefore, the outcomes drawing a
red card and drawing a club are mutually exclusive.
The other scenarios are not mutually exclusive, because the two characteristics listed can occur
together.
 A) a card can be both red and a king (the king of hearts or the king of
diamonds)
 C) a card can be both black and a spade (all spades in the deck are black)
 D) a card can be both black and an ace (the ace of spades or the ace of clubs).

Independent and Dependent of Events

What is a Dependent Event?
When two events are dependent events, one event influences the probability of another
event. A dependent event is an event that relies on another event to happen first.
Dependent events in probability are no different from dependent events in real life: If
you want to attend a concert, it might depend on whether you get overtime at work; if
you want to visit family out of the country next month, it depends on whether or not you
can get a passport in time. More formally, we say that when two events are dependent,
the occurrence of one event influences the probability of another event.
Simple examples of dependent events:
 Robbing a bank and going to jail
 Not paying your power bill on time and having your power cut off.
 Boarding a plane first and finding a good seat.
 Parking illegally and getting a parking ticket. Parking illegally increases your odds
of getting a ticket.

 Buying ten lottery tickets and winning the lottery. The more tickets you buy, the
greater your odds of winning.
 Driving a car and getting in a traffic accident.

What is an Independent Event?

An independent event is an event that has no connection to another event’s chances of
happening (or not happening). In other words, the event has no effect on
the probability of another event occurring. Independent events in probability are no
 different from independent events in real life. Where you work has no effect on what
color car you drive. Buying a lottery ticket has no effect on having a child with blue eyes.
When two events are independent, one event does not influence the probability of
another event.

Simple examples of independent events:

 Owning a dog and growing your own herb garden.
 Paying off your mortgage early and owning a Chevy Cavalier.
 Winning the lottery and running out of milk.
 Buying a lottery ticket and finding a penny on the floor (your odds of finding a
penny does not depend on you buying a lottery ticket).
 Taking a cab home and finding your favorite movie on cable.
 Getting a parking ticket and playing craps at the casino.

Independent Events
Events can be " Independent ", meaning each event is not affected by any other events.

Example: Tossing a coin.

Each toss of a coin is a perfect isolated thing.

What it did in the past will not affect the current toss.

The chance is simply 1-in-2, or 50%, just like ANY toss of the coin.

So each toss is an Independent Event.

Dependent Events
But events can also be "dependent" ... which means they can be affected by previous
events ...

Example: Marbles in a Bag

2 blue and 3 red marbles are in a bag.

What are the chances of getting a blue marble?

The chance is 2 in 5

But after taking one out the chances change!

So the next time:

if we got a red marble before, then the chance of a blue marble next is 2 in 4

if we got a blue marble before, then the chance of a blue marble next is 1 in 4

This is because we are removing marbles from the bag.

 So the next event depends on what happened in the previous event, and is
called dependent.

Replacement
Note: if we replace the marbles in the bag each time, then the chances do not change
and the events are  independent :

 With Replacement: the events are Independent (the chances don't change)

 Without Replacement: the events are Dependent (the chances change)
Dependent events are what we look at here.

Tree Diagram
A  Tree Diagram : is a wonderful way to picture what is going on, so let's build one for
our marbles example.

There is a 2/5 chance of pulling out a Blue marble, and a 3/5 chance for Red:

We can go one step further and see what happens when we pick a second marble.

If a blue marble was selected first there is now a 1/4 chance of getting a blue marble and
a 3/4 chance of getting a red marble.

If a red marble was selected first there is now a 2/4 chance of getting a blue marble and
a 2/4 chance of getting a red marble.

Now we can answer questions like "What are the chances of drawing 2 blue marbles?"
Answer: it is a 2/5 chance followed by a 1/4 chance:

Did you see how we multiplied the chances? And got 1/10 as a result.
The chances of drawing 2 blue marbles is 1/10

Notation
We love notation in mathematics! It means we can then use the power of algebra to play
around with the ideas. So here is the notation for probability:

P(A) means "Probability Of Event A"

In our marbles example Event A is "get a Blue Marble first" with a probability of 2/5:

P(A) = 2/5

And Event B is "get a Blue Marble second" ... but for that we have 2 choices:

 If we got a Blue Marble first the chance is now 1/4

 If we got a Red Marble first the chance is now 2/4
So we have to say which one we want, and use the symbol "|" to mean "given":

P(B|A) means "Event B given Event A"

In other words, event A has already happened, now what is the chance of event B?

P(B|A) is also called the "Conditional Probability" of B given A.

And in our case:

P(B|A) = 1/4

So the probability of getting 2 blue marbles is:

 And we write it as

"Probability of event A and event B equals

the probability of event A times the probability of event B given event A"

Let's do the next example using only notation:

Example: Drawing 2 Kings from a Deck

Event A is drawing a King first, and Event B is drawing a King second.

For the first card the chance of drawing a King is 4 out of 52 (there are 4 Kings in a deck
of 52 cards):

P(A) = 4/52

But after removing a King from the deck the probability of the 2nd card drawn
is less likely to be a King (only 3 of the 51 cards left are Kings):

P(B|A) = 3/51

And so:

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A) = (4/52) x (3/51) = 12/2652 = 1/221

So the chance of getting 2 Kings is 1 in 221, or about 0.5%

Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B is the probability that the event will occur given the
knowledge that an event A has already occurred. This probability is written P(B|A), notation for
the probability of B given A. In the case where events A and B are independent (where event A has no
effect on the probability of event B), the conditional probability of event B given event A is simply the
probability of event B, that is P(B).

If events A and B are not independent, then the probability of the intersection of A and B (the

probability that both events occur) is defined by
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A).

From this definition, the conditional probability P(B|A) is easily obtained by dividing by P(A):

Examples

In a card game, suppose a player needs to draw two cards of the same suit in order to win. Of the 52
cards, there are 13 cards in each suit. Suppose first the player draws a heart. Now the player wishes to
draw a second heart. Since one heart has already been chosen, there are now 12 hearts remaining in a
deck of 51 cards. So the conditional probability P(Draw second heart|First card a heart) = 12/51.

Suppose an individual applying to a college determines that he has an 80% chance of being accepted,
and he knows that dormitory housing will only be provided for 60% of all of the accepted students.
The chance of the student being accepted and receiving dormitory housing is defined by
P(Accepted and Dormitory Housing) = P(Dormitory Housing|Accepted)P(Accepted) = (0.60)*(0.80)
= 0.48.

To calculate the probability of the intersection of more than two events, the conditional
probabilities of all of the preceding events must be considered. In the case of three events, A, B,
and C, the probability of the intersection P(A and B and C) = P(A)P(B|A)P(C|A and B).

Consider the college applicant who has determined that he has 0.80 probability of acceptance and that
only 60% of the accepted students will receive dormitory housing. Of the accepted students who
receive dormitory housing, 80% will have at least one roommate. The probability of being
accepted and receiving dormitory housing and having no roommates is calculated by:
P(Accepted and Dormitory Housing and No Roommates) = P(Accepted)P(Dormitory Housing|
Accepted)P(No Roomates|Dormitory Housing and Accepted) = (0.80)*(0.60)*(0.20) = 0.096. The
student has about a 10% chance of receiving a single room at the college.

Another important method for calculating conditional probabilities is given by Bayes's formula. The
formula is based on the expression P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|Ac)P(Ac), which simply states that the
probability of event B is the sum of the conditional probabilities of event B given that event A has or
has not occurred. For independent events A and B, this is equal to P(B)P(A) + P(B)P(Ac) = P(B)(P(A)
+ P(Ac)) = P(B)(1) = P(B), since the probability of an event and its complement must always sum to
1. Bayes's formula is defined as follows: