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Modules Thinking Electrons:

Modeling People & Categorical
and Linear Models

 8/10 puntos obtenidos ( 80%)

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1. 
Think about all of the methods we have covered that allow us to
model agents. Which of the following CAN be true? You may select
more than one.

Rational behavior can be a simple rule.

Respuesta incorrecta 

See 5.2, "Rational Actor Models"

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See 5.2, "Rational Actor Models"

A person can be a rational actor and altruistic.

Respuesta correcta 
See 5.2, "Rational Actor Models"

A simple rule can be exploited.

Respuesta correcta 
See 5.4, "Rule Based Models"

A rational rule can include a behavioral bias.

Respuesta correcta 
See 5.3, "Behavioral Models"

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2. 
The State of Minnesota Veteran's Administration is pushing for a
bill to make contributions by military personnel to their retirement
funds be automatic. If the bill passes, contributions will occur
automatically unless the military member checks a box asking for
the money in salary instead. The governor is against the bill, saying
it will have no eᴄect. What type of model is the governor most likely
using?

Rational Model

Behavioral Model

Rule Based Model

Respuesta incorrecta 
A Rule Based Model could mean that the proposed bill has
no eᴄect. But it can go either way; military members could
act according to a rule that says "always check the box", or,

on the other hand, a rule that says "never check the box".
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3. 
Imagine that you're a contestant on a game show in which you
must answer multiple-choice questions. Your current winnings are
$20,000. A question comes up that will double your winnings if you
answer correctly - taking you to $40,000 - or reduce your winnings
to nothing if you answer incorrectly. You may do one of two things:
take your $20,000 and walk away; or answer the question and end
up with either $0 or $40,000. You reason that you have a 60%
chance of answering the question correctly. However, you decide to
walk away instead of answering. What type of bias does this choice
represent?

Prospect Theory

Respuesta correcta 
Correct. Prospect Theory tells us that when we're talking
about gains - as opposed to losses - we tend to be "risk
averse".

Status Quo Bias

Hyperbolic Discounting

Base Rate Bias

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4. 
Alicia is a rational actor. She's in a market with 20 buyers and 20
sellers of corn. All of the other buyers and sellers are zero-
intelligence agents.

Assume that Alicia is a buyer. If Alicia has a relatively high value,

which of the following scenarios is true?

Alicia bids higher than her true value.

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Alicia will probably have the lowest bid among buyers.

Alicia bids signiᴄcantly less than her true value.

Respuesta correcta 
Right. Alicia is surrounded by zero-intelligence sellers, and
she can take advantage of their naivety.

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5. 
If you are a rational person playing a "race to the bottom" game,
how should you react to the addition of more people whom you
know to be irrational?

Do nothing diᴄerent; there is still only one rational

choice.

Shade your answer in the direction of a less rational

response.

Respuesta correcta 
Right. More irrational players, the more we need to shade
toward an irrational answer - assuming we are acting
rationally.

Abandon the rational approach and make a random

guess.

Shade your answer a bit closer to the rational response.

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6. 

You have the following data on the number of dishes of ice cream
that 4 people eat in a month:
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Alice: 12

Baruk: 12

Carlos: 6

Daria: 14

You create two categories based on gender: Daria and Alice in one,
and Carlos and Baruk in the other. You make predictions based on
these categories. How much of the variation can you explain based
on these categories, i.e. what's your R-squared? Write your answer
as a number between 0 and 1 to the hundredths place (like this:
0.XX). Write only your ᴄnal answer

0.44

Respuesta correcta 
The original mean is 11.

Step 1: Calculate the variation without categories:

1 + 1 + 25 + 9 = 36 .

Step 2: Now we calculate within categories:

For the women, the mean is 13 and the variation is

1+1 = 2

For the men, the mean is 9 and the variation is 9 + 9 = 18

(Remember, to ᴄnd variation we square the distance from
the mean).

Step 3: Find the total variation within groups:

2 + 18 = 20 .

The original variation was 36, so we have explained 16.

Step 4: Finally, calculate the R-squared value:

16
= 0.44
36

[See 6.2, "Categorical Models"]

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7. 
A student, Samuel, speculates that exam scores may be linearly
related to hours spent studying. Samuel collects ᴄve data points,
(X,Y), where X represents hours studied and Y represents exam
score -- Ricardo: (2,45); Janette: (4,80); Calvin: (7,95), Edith: (3,55);
Joachim: (1,30). The mean score is 61. Samuel uses the equation
Y = 20X to represent the data. Calculate the R-squared value of

this line. Assuming that an R-squared value less than 0.4 is "poor", a
value between 0.4 and 0.8 is "fair", and a value above 0.8 is "good",
how well does this line Y=20X represent the data?

Not enough information

Poor

Respuesta correcta 
Step 1: Calculate the total variation: For Ricardo, (2,45):
. Repeat this step for each student, then
2
(45 − 61) = 256

sum all results.

You should get 2,770

Step 2: Calculate how much of the variation is accounted

for by the line Y=20X: For Ricardo, (2,45): 20 ∗ 2 = 40 ;
. Repeat this step for each student, then
2
(40 − 45) = 25

sum all results.

You should get 2,175

Step 3: Calculate the R-squared value:

2,175
1− = 0.215
2,770

Step 4: Compare to our criteria:

0.215 < 0.4

Therefore, the line Y = 20X is a "poor" representation of the

data.

[See 6.3, "Linear Models"]

Fair
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Fair

Good

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8. 
Let's assume that temperature in the State of Michigan increases
linearly between January and June. We'll assign each day between
January 1st and June 30th a number, such that January 1st=1,
January 2nd=2.....July 1st=151. The following ᴄve data points (X,Y)
were collected, where X represents the day and Y represents the
temperature that day in degrees Fahrenheit: (1,5); (25,15); (46,22);
(76,32); (140, 77). Which line better represents the data: Y=0.6X or
Y=0.5X? In other words, which of these lines has the greater R-
squared value?

Y=0.6X

Y=0.5X

Respuesta correcta 
See the explanation for question 6 for help with calculating
R-squared values.

Once you do the math, you should ᴄnd that Y=0.5X has an
R-squared value of .964 and that Y=0.6X has an R-squared
value of about 0.909.

Therefore, the line Y=0.5X has the greater R-squared value.

[See 6.4, "Fitting Lines to Data"]

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9. 

Larry has a multiple-variable equation that explains "points scored"

in a soccer match as a linear function of passing skill, shooting skill
and player compatibility. Each of these three variables is ranked on
a scale from 1 to 10. As a team improves in one of these three
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respects, their score will increase. Let's assume that the equation is
precisely: Points Scored = 0.18(Passing Skill)+0.25(Shooting
Skill)+0.12(Compatibility). MT United is a new soccer team using
Larry's model to maximize points scored. Should they focus most of
their practice on passing, shooting or player compatibility?

Passing

Defense

Shooting

Respuesta correcta 
This is a Big Coeᴆcient question. Since shooting has the
biggest coeᴆcient, MT United should spend most of their
time on shooting practice.

[See 6.7, "The Big Coeᴆcient vs. The New Reality"]

Compatibility

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10. 
In the previous question, we assumed that points scored in a
soccer match was a linear function: Points Scored =
0.18(Passing)+0.25(Shooting)+0.12(Compatibility), with each
variable measured on a scale of 1 to 10. Imagine that all teams
begin by using this equation. Suddenly "Team A" (passing=7;
shooting=6; compatibility=6) BEATS "Team B" (passing=9;
shooting=8; compatibility=7). How might this outcome be possible?

Team A had a larger value in the Big Coeᴆcient of

shooting, and therefore scored more points overall.

Team A invested in a 'New Reality' that also focused on

defensive skills. This allowed them to decrease the score
diᴄerential enough to win.

Respuesta correcta 
Team A could have invested in a New Rreality that also
focused on defense, which could have changed how the
game was being played in this league.

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The other two options are false: if Team B had better

oᴄense and defense, there is no explanation as to how they
were defeated; also, Team B is better at shooting than team
1 (8>6), so big coeᴆcients cannot account for Team A's win.

[See 6.7, "The Big Coeᴆcient vs. The New Reality"]

Team B invested in defensive skills, making them

superior both oᴄensively and defensively.

  

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