PROBABILITY GUIDE

TO
GAMBLING

The Mathematics of Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat,


∏
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Cătălin Bărboianu
 Cătălin Bărboianu INFAROM Publishing
PO Box 1 – 230 Pure and applied mathematics
Craiova, Romania [email protected]
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ISBN 973-87520-3-5
Publisher: INFAROM
Author and translator: Cătălin Bărboianu
Correction Editor: Sara M. Stohl

Copyright © INFAROM 2006

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or
part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting,
reuse of tables, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other
way, and storage in data banks.
Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the
provisions of Copyright Laws and permission for use must always be obtained
from INFAROM.
 Contents
Introduction ....................................................................... 5
Probability Theory Basics ................................................ 17
Fundamental notions ........................................................ 18
Sets ................................................................................ 18
Functions ....................................................................... 20
Boole algebras ............................................................... 23
Sequences of real numbers. Limit ................................. 25
Series of real numbers ................................................... 31
Measure theory basics ...................................................... 33
Sequences of sets .......................................................... 34
Tribes. Borel sets. Measurable space ............................ 35
Measure ......................................................................... 39
Field of events. Probability .............................................. 42
Probability on a finite field of events ............................ 49
Properties of probability ................................................ 53
Probability σ-field ......................................................... 59
Independent events. Conditional probability ................ 61
Total probability formula. Bayes’s theorem ................. 63
Law of large numbers ................................................... 64
Discrete random variables ............................................. 66
Distribution function .................................................. 69
Discrete classical probability distributions ................ 70
Bernoulli scheme ..................................................... 70
Poisson scheme ....................................................... 72
Polynomial scheme ................................................. 74
Scheme of nonreturned ball .................................... 75
Combinatorics ................................................................... 79
Permutations ..................................................................... 79
Arrangements ................................................................... 80
Combinations ................................................................... 81
The Mathematics of Games of Chance ........................... 83
Experiments, events, probability fields ............................ 84
Probability calculus .......................................................... 92
Odds and probability ........................................................ 95
Combinations ................................................................... 96
Expectation ....................................................................... 97
 Relative frequency. Law of Large Numbers .................... 100
Relativity of probability results ........................................ 104
The Guide of Numerical Results ...................................... 109
Dice .................................................................................. 110
Two dice ........................................................................ 110
Three dice ...................................................................... 113
Slots ................................................................................. 117
Three reels ..................................................................... 117
Four reels ....................................................................... 119
Roulette ........................................................................... 125
Baccarat .......................................................................... 139
Blackjack ......................................................................... 171
Classical Poker ............................................................... 193
Initial probabilities on the first card distribution for
your own hand ..................................................................... 197
Prediction probabilities after the first card distribution
and before the second, for your own hand .......................... 206
Prediction probabilities for opponents’ hands .............. 231
Texas Hold’em Poker ..................................................... 241
Immediate odds ............................................................. 245
Preflop odds ............................................................... 245
Flop odds .................................................................... 255
Turn odds ................................................................... 267
Other odds .................................................................. 268
Opponents’ hands probabilities ..................................... 272
Lottery ............................................................................. 275
The 6/49 system ............................................................ 276
The 5/40 system ............................................................ 280
Enhancing the winning probability ............................... 283
Compound variants ....................................................... 286
Reduced schemes .......................................................... 287
Sport Bets ........................................................................ 289
The Probability-based Strategy ....................................... 297
References ........................................................................... 315