QUESTION 1

“I’d like to negotiate the bottom line only, but that’s a dream. We’ll probably negotiate the
raw materials, the man-hours and the learning curve, the overhead rate, and finally the profit
percentage. Hopefully, we can do it in that order.” If so much variability (uncertainty) was on
man-hours, discuss an appropriate time estimating approach using an example.

There are eight types of time estimating approaches that can be used to estimate time on
projects which are the following techniques below:

1) Expert judgment
2) Bottom-up estimating
3) Top-down estimating
4) Analogous estimating
5) Parametric estimating
6) Three-point estimating
7) Data analysis
8) Decision making

1) Expert judgment 
Expert Judgment is an approach where judgment is provided based upon previous
experiences, which can be known from a set of specific criteria or expertise that has been
gathered in a specific area during time spent on an application or particular discipline. This
expert judgment can also be provided by a group of expertise or only personnel who have
specialized in a certain field and has the necessary skills and experience to advise on the
time required to complete certain activities.

2) Bottom-up e

After reviewing these approaches, we have determined that the three-point estimating
approach is most effective for project management by using this technique it can provide a
graphical display of the projects activities that will help the project managers understand the
relationship amongst the activities and determine their activity durations and inputs.

The three-point estimating approach is an estimate which uses three figures by utilizing an
optimistic, most likely and pessimistic time estimate for each activity and is based on either
previous experience or best assumptions. By utilizing the three-point system there is
distribution formulas which estimate the time required for activities. The most popular
formula’s is the triangular distribution or the PERT formula. For effective project
management we use the technique with the PERT formula to estimate the duration of
activities.

What the PERT technique does is manage the probabilities of durations for activities. As Gus
said in the case study “We’ll probably negotiate the raw materials, the man-hours and the
learning curve, the overhead rate, and finally the profit percentage.” Which means that the
PERT technique could be used in his case as he is also measuring what he could “probably
negotiate” the outcomes that the company wants to achieve, and since he is relying on
probabilities the PERT formula can best be used to calculate his uncertainties.

The PERT technique can then be applied by using the following formula to estimate activity
durations (te):

Where (a) in the formula is known as the optimistic time which is the minimum possible time
an activity can take to be achieved. The most likely or probable time (m) in the formula is the
best estimate of time that will be required to achieve the activity. The pessimistic time (b) in
the formula is the maximum possible time and activity can take to be accomplished. The
expected time (te) is then calculated using the PERT formula which then becomes the best
estimate of time which will be required to achieve an activity, by assuming everything goes
normally as planned by taking the optimistic, most probable and pessimistic times into
consideration. The PERT formula calculates the weighted average estimate of time by using
this simple formula it does exactly that by calculating the average time for each activity.

Expected Time = (Optimistic + 4 x Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6

QUESTION 2

For the case study above, Create a PERT schedule with the key activities for the $20 million
contract negotiation project. There should be between 6 to 10 activities identified from the
case study. Additional relevant activities may be included. Create an AON network diagram
and find the critical path using slack once estimated activity time is established.

 Create AON network diagram

After identifying the activities from the case study, all the activities were tabulated in
sequence with all their expected activity durations based on previous negotiation experience
the predecessors were also tabulated where the predecessors are the activities that must be
completed before the next activity begins. The expected durations which is in the last column
is then calculated utilizing the PERT formula which calculates the best time duration for each
activity. Where (te) is the expected completion time, (a) is the optimistic time, (m) the most
probable time and (b) the pessimistic time, the formula is applied for each activity to
determine the expected completion time.

Expected Time = (Optimistic + 4 x Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6

Table 1: Input information for AON network diagram

 The information in table 1 is then utilized to create an activity of node (AON) network
diagram which will be a graphical representation of the activities in logical order with the
duration also shown.

Figure 1: AON network diagram

Once the activity on node network diagram

is created, we then are able to work out

and develop the critical path. The figure
3 below shows the configuration of the
activity on node method for working out the critical path there are various processes and
formulas that need to be applied. The durations which were calculated using PERT are now
used to calculate the start and finish times of each activity using the forward and backward
pass method to determine the earliest start, earliest finish, latest finish and latest start.

Early Early
Start (ES)   Finish (EF)
Activity Duration
Late Late
Start (LS) Float  Finish (LF)
Figure 2: Activity on node configuration diagram
The forward pass is used to calculate the early start and early finish time on each activity and
the backward pass calculates the late finish and late start. By applying the following rules
below, we can determine these activity times for each activity.

Forward Pass Rules Backward Pass Rules

Activity on Start node – Early start time ES=0 For the last activity the following applies:
Late Finish (LF) = Early Finish (EF)
Early start time is the Maximum Time of LF time is the Minimum Time of predecessor’s
predecessor’s ES = Max (Early finish time) LF = Min Late start (LS of predecessors)
EF time is calculated by using the following LS time is calculated by using the following
formula (EF = ES + Duration) formula (LS=LF - Duration)
Table 2: Forward and Backward Pass application rules
The forward and backward pass is then carried out on each activity on the network diagram to
determine all the activities durations on the activity that is completed. Once the network
diagram has been drawn with the durations estimated using the PERT method, and the ES,
EF, LS and LF durations have been worked out by using the forward and backward pass the
critical path of the negotiation process can be worked out.

The critical path can be calculated by using two ways. The first way is by adding all the
durations on simple pathways which can mostly be used on simple network diagrams, the
pathway with the longest network will become the critical path. The second way is by
calculating the slack from the network diagram which we use a simple formula which is the
slack is equal to the last start (LS) minus the early start (ES) or the late finish (LF) minus the
early finish (EF).

To calculate the critical path both methods will be done to determine the correctness of the
critical path.

Method 1: longest path method

Path 1: A-B-C-F-H-J-K Length = 0+1+2+2+3+3+0 = 11 days

Path 2: A-B-D-F-H-J-K Length = 0+1+1+2+3+3+0 = 10 days
Path 3: A-B-E-G-I-J-K Length = 0+1+1+1+2+3+0 = 8 days

Method 2: Calculating slack on each activity

The slack is calculated for each activity and is shown in red under the float on the network
diagram below.

Fig 2: AON network diagram

showing critical path

By using both methods it is proven

that the critical path is path 1 which is A-B-
C-F-H-J-K.
QUESTION 3

Analyse the various types of Gantt charts Gus bell and Jeff can use to schedule preparations
for the above negotiation.

 Description of a Gantt chart

 Various types of Gantt charts

The Gantt chart provides a standard graphical representation by scheduling information, it

does this by listing all their relevant activities in a logical sequence with their durations and
key dates to assist project managers in controlling their key activities down to the various
levels required in order to make any project a success, it is therefore critical to map and track
all the relevant information on the Gantt Chart to assist in that regard.

In the [ CITATION Pro17 \l 7177 ] Gantt chart is defined as a bar chart of schedule information
where the activities are listed on the vertical axis, dates are shown on the horizontal axis and
activity durations are shown as the horizontal bars placed according to start and finish dates.
This tracking system is very simple and easy to understand and any project manager can
simply track and manage the effects of activities on the project if one can understand the
simple trend of the Gantt chart the success of achieving activity success should be found
distinctively.

The figure 5. below shows a simple Gantt chart for constructing an RDP house in a rural
community the Gantt chartt shows the activities, dates and tracking chart for the construction
the house this simple chart gives a graphical depiction of what is required and when key dates
are to be met in order to deliver the house the owner and when the house can be handed over
to the owner. There are however four variations of the Gantt chart which will be discussed
further.

Figure 5: Simple Gantt chart for the construction of an RDP house.

 The four types of variations of the Gantt chart are the following:

1) Revised Gantt Chart

2) Rolling Gantt Chart
3) Trend Gantt Chart
4) Logic Gantt Chart

1) Revised Gantt Chart

The revised Gantt chart is a tracking sheet that allows us to make further changes and updates
to the baseline programme as the project progresses through its stages of completions.
According to[ CITATION Pro17 \l 7177 ] the Gantt chart was originally designed as a planning
and controlling tool where the actual progress of the project is marked up against the original
plan. For tracking the progress, the progress bars are drawn above, inside or below the original
activity bar in order to measure the progress this will give an indication to the project managers
if the activities are running ahead or behind its schedule and where more controls will be
required.

For the Gantt chart to be effective the baseline plan needs to be completed and fixed into
position, where the only changes can be those done if there is a change in the scope of works
required by the client. Once the baseline plan is complete in order to revise the Gantt chart the
project manager will need to set up a progress reporting sheet which is shown on the following
table 3 the progress tracking needs to be done as the project progresses and must be reported
next to a work breakdown structure number or activity number, the start and finish dates must
also be shown to clearly show whether the activity has started or finished.

PROGRESS REPORTING SHEET

Project RDP House Report Date: 30/05/2020  
Activity Percentage Remaining
WBS Description Start Date Finish Date
Number Complete Duration
1 1 Dig Foundations 20/04/2020  24/04/2020 50% 2 days
2 2 Pour Concrete     0%  
3 3 Construct Walls 27/04/2020  14/05/2020 75% 1 day
4 4 Install Doors     0%  
5 5 Install Roof 15/05/2020  21/05/2020 25% 3 days
6 6 Finishes     0%  
Table 3: Progress reporting data capture template
 Once all this information has been reported on the progress report the project manager can
draw the revised Gantt chart using the remaining duration as the Gantt chart works on a time
scale schedule and not a percentage complete scale as the percentage complete does not give
a direct indication of when an activity will be completed or is running behind schedule.
Figure 6 shows the revised Gantt chart with the progress drawn in yellow up to the timenow
line. The progress tracking shows that activity 1 has a remaining duration of one week and is
ahead which means that no control is required on this activity. Activity 3 has a remaining
duration of 2 weeks and also required no control as the activity is on time. Activity 5 however
needs control as it shows that the activity is one week behind schedule therefore this activity
needs to speed up to progress in order to finish the activity on time and this can be achieved
by allocating more resources from other activities in order to the achieve this.

Figure 6: Revised Gantt Chart – the Gantt chart shows progress to

the timenow line.

The revised Gantt chart is easy to understand as it clearly indicates progress to date against
the original baseline Gantt chart and it also provides access to access on the controls required
to achieve activity success. Progress trends can also be marked up by showing the progress
on the Gantt chart and the tracking can assist the project manager in controlling the project
and bring activities back on track to achieve success as any disruptions on key dates due to
delays and all this information can be clearly tracked on the revised Gantt chart as it allows
the project manager to make changes and additions as the project progresses.

2) Rolling Horizon Gantt Chart

 The rolling horizon Gantt chart or rolling wave Gantt chart According to[ CITATION Pro17 \l
7177 ] this Gantt chart is a simplified version of the Gantt chart that focuses on the activities
that are currently working or will be working in the next few weeks. This chart therefore
focuses on a short period ahead during the life cycle of activities.

This short period of time can be between two or three weeks ahead for the activities being
worked on, and four weeks ahead for ensuring all the pre-planning measures are in place.
The Gantt chart in Figure 7 can be completed by preparing a planning template which
includes the scope of work broken down into more simple activities and can be marked by
hand on the original Gantt chart which will give the project manager clear indication of
progress.

Activity Description Mon 1 Tue 2 Wed 3 Thu 4 Fri 5 Sat 6 Sun 7 Mon 8 Tue 9 Wed 10
Excavate Foundations
Fix Reinforcing
Fix Shuttering
Concrete Foundation

Figure 7: Rolling Horizon Gantt chart – the chart shows how a Gantt chart can be marked by
hand for the next two or three weeks.

The main objective will be on what can be done, instead of what s shown on the original Gantt
chart, this type of activity tracking should be very accurate as it is captured on the latest
activity information and drawn up by personnel who is working directly with the activity and
its progress. It is also very quick to access and it only includes the relevant information on the
current activities that are currently being carried out.

3) Trend Gantt Chart

The progress trend Gantt chart can enable a project manager to determine the direction and
trend the project is at a glance by marking the progress weekly or monthly. This will assist
the project manager to determine which of the activities are behind and which are ahead of
schedule. In order to limit the number of activities the trend Gantt chart can be drawn at
hammock level.

According to [ CITATION Bur19 \l 7177 ] a hammock or summary activity is used to gather

together a number of sub-activities into one master activity, which becomes a useful
technique for layering or rolling up the entire projects schedule. The Gantt chart with
 hammock activities will assist the project manager by providing him with more detail on each
activity this will also assist him greatly as one can track the progress of each activity.

RDP HOUSE CONSTRUCTION

Mon Tue Wed Thu Sun Mon Tue Wed
Activity Description 1 2 3 4
Fri 5 Sat 6
7 8 9 10

1000 Foundations                    
1001 Set out Foundation                    
1002 Excavate Foundation                    
1003 Cast Concrete Foundation                    
2000 Construct Walls                    
3000 Install Roof                    

Figure 8: Hammock Gantt Chart – shows the hammock activity bar drawn in blue from start
of the earliest activity to the end of the latest activity; the subactivities are shown in green.

The level of detail on this Gantt chart can be seen to assist the project manager as this
technique is a fundamental feature for tracking the project planning and for controlling the
activities this detailed level does not need to be shown to client but is beneficial to the project
team in order to track the progress as each activity is being completed.

4) Logic Gantt Chart

The logic Gantt chart shows the logical relationship between activities and is shown clearly
and in detail on the Gantt chart format. Due to the logic Gantt chart showing the relationship
of activities it is also known as the linked Gantt chart since all the activities are linked to one
another. This Gantt chart can only be used on modest sized project as is it not as effective on
larger projects because

This Gantt chart illustrates the logical relationships of activities explicitly in Gantt chart
format. This Gantt chart is very appropriate for modest sized projects. The logic Gantt chart is
also known as a linked Gantt chart. This chart is not effective on larger projects because of the
sear number of activities on large projects. Too many activities will result in the chart
becoming much cluttered and its use will not be as effective in such a scenario. It uses the
QUESTION 4

With the aid of an example, critically discuss how making cost and schedule trade-offs may
accelerate project duration.

QUESTION 5

With the aid of an example, critically discuss how performing activities in parallel may
accelerate project duration.