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SIE 321 Probabilistic Models in OR Homework 2: Problem 1

This document contains 5 problems regarding probabilistic models in operations research. Problem 1 asks to find the conditional probability of more heads than tails given the 6th toss is heads for a fair coin tossed 6 times. Problem 2 asks for the probability of getting a 6 on two dice given the sum is even. Problem 3 considers probabilities of digits occurring in certain positions for random tickets. Problem 4 considers winning probabilities against different opponent types in a chess tournament. Problem 5 involves default probabilities for a loan given a credit check result.

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128 views

SIE 321 Probabilistic Models in OR Homework 2: Problem 1

This document contains 5 problems regarding probabilistic models in operations research. Problem 1 asks to find the conditional probability of more heads than tails given the 6th toss is heads for a fair coin tossed 6 times. Problem 2 asks for the probability of getting a 6 on two dice given the sum is even. Problem 3 considers probabilities of digits occurring in certain positions for random tickets. Problem 4 considers winning probabilities against different opponent types in a chess tournament. Problem 5 involves default probabilities for a loan given a credit check result.

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sherryy619
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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SIE 321 Probabilistic Models in OR Homework 2

Problem 1. A fair coin is tossed consecutively 6 times. Find the conditional probability P(A | B), where
the events A and B are defined as

A = {more heads than tails came up}, B = {6th toss is a head}

Problem 2. Consider rolling a pair of dice once. What is the probability of getting 6, given that the
sum of the faces is an even number?

Problem 3. A box contains four tickets labeled 112, 121, 211, and 222. Choose one ticket at random
and consider events Ai = {1 occurs in i-th position}, i = 1, 2, 3.

(a) Are events A1 , A2 , and A3 pairwise independent?


(b) Are they mutually independent?

Problem 4. You enter a chess tournament where your probability of winning a game is 0.63 against
30% the players (call them type 1), 0.25 against other 10% of the players (call them type
2), and 0.12 against the remaining 60% players (call them type 3).

(a) You play a game against a randomly chosen opponent. What is the probability of
winning?
(b) Suppose that you were the winner of a game. What is the probability that your oppo-
nent was of type 3?

Problem 5. A customer has approached a bank for a loan. Without further information, the bank
believes there is a 8% chance that the customer will default on the loan. The bank can run
a credit check on the customer. The check will yield either a favorable or an unfavorable
report. From past experience, the bank believes that

1
P(favorable report being received | customer will default) = ,
40
and
96
P(favorable report | customer will not default) = .
100
If a favorable report is received, what is the probability that the customer will default on
the loan?

1
Solution keys for HW2
1. Solution:
0.5

2. Solution:
P(6 | even number) = 5/18

3. (a) yes
(b) no

4. (a) 0.286
(b) 0.252

5. 0.23%

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