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Hira Shakeel MGT 303 Homework 4 Zahra Azadi

This document contains the solutions to 5 questions regarding queueing theory, PERT analysis, and probability. Key details include: 1) The critical path for a network diagram has the lowest expected duration of 39.50 days and variance of 8.25. The probability of completing within the expected time is 0.113. 2) For two project paths, the path with lower variance of 0.67 is more likely to complete by the due date, with a probability of 0.99, than the path with variance of 3 and probability of 0.99. 3) For a construction project with expected duration of 21 months and variance of 4, the probability of completing in 17 months is 0.022

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209 views

Hira Shakeel MGT 303 Homework 4 Zahra Azadi

This document contains the solutions to 5 questions regarding queueing theory, PERT analysis, and probability. Key details include: 1) The critical path for a network diagram has the lowest expected duration of 39.50 days and variance of 8.25. The probability of completing within the expected time is 0.113. 2) For two project paths, the path with lower variance of 0.67 is more likely to complete by the due date, with a probability of 0.99, than the path with variance of 3 and probability of 0.99. 3) For a construction project with expected duration of 21 months and variance of 4, the probability of completing in 17 months is 0.022

Uploaded by

Hira Paracha
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Hira Shakeel

MGT 303 Homework 4


Zahra Azadi
Question 1
Immediate Most Expected Varianc
Activity Optimistic Pessimistic
Predecessor(s) likely Value e
A - 4 8 10 7.67 1.00
B A 2 8 24 9.67 13.44
C A 8 12 16 12.00 1.78
D A 4 6 10 6.33 1.00
E B 1 2 3 2.00 0.11
F E,C 6 8 20 9.67 5.44
G E,C 2 3 4 3.00 0.11
H F 2 2 2 2.00 0.00
I F 6 6 6 6.00 0.00
J D,G,H 4 6 12 6.67 1.78
K I,J 2 2 3 2.17 0.03
Standard
Paths Duration Variance
Deviation
ABEFHIK 39.17 20.03 4.48
ABEGJK 31.17 16.47 4.06
Critical
ACFHIK 39.50 8.25 2.87
Path
ACGJK 31.50 4.69 2.17
ADJK 22.83 3.81 1.95

c) Duration is 39.50
d) Variance is 8.25
e) Probability is NORM.DIST (-1.21,0,1,TRUE) = 0.11313945

NETWORK DIAGRAM

B E

F H I
A
C

G J

Question 2
Varianc
Activity a m b Expected Time
e
A 9 10 11 10 0.33
B 4 10 16 10 2.00
C 9 10 11 10 0.33
D 5 8 11 8 1.00

Paths Duration Variance


A-C 20 0.6666667 Critical Path
B-D 18 3

Probability (Duration of A-C <=


22) = NORM.DIST ( Z,0,1, TRUE)
0.99271713
Z= 22-20/SQRT(0.67)

Probability (Duration of B-D <=


22) = NORM.DIST ( Z,0,1, TRUE)
0.98953933
Z=22-
18/SQRT(3)

f) The path AC has smaller variance when compared


to path BD. Despite having lower expected time the probabilty
to complete the project is 0.98 which is less than the probability to complete
project along path AC. The project is only completed when all activities are completed.

Question 3

Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completion time for
the construction of a pleasure yacht is 21 months, and the project variance is 4.

a) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 17 months?

Z value = (17-21)/ SQRT(4) = -2

NORM.DIST (-2,0,1,TRUE) = 0.02275

b) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 20 months?


Z value = (20-21)/ SQRT(4) = -0.5

NORM.DIST (-0.5,0,1,TRUE) = 0.308

c) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months?

Z value = (23-21)/ SQRT(4) = 1

NORM.DIST (1,0,1,TRUE) = 0.84134

d) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 25 months?

Z value = (25-21)/ SQRT(4) = 2

NORM.DIST (2,0,1,TRUE) = 0.977

e) What do you observe comparing a, b, c, and d?

 The probability increases with increasing time. Hence delay is possible in the project.

Question 4 

Arrival rate = Lamda = 10 customers per hour, 1 Teller and 1 Server = C

Service rate  = 4 minutes per customer = 15 customers/hour

Utilization rate = chi = Lambda/Miu = 10/15 = 0.66667

Ls = Chi / (1-Chi) = 0.67/(1-0.67) = 2

Lq = Ls – Chi = 2 – 0.67 = 1.33

Ws = Ls/Lambda = 2/10 = 0.2

Wq = Lq/Lambda = 1.333333/10 = 0.1333333

 a) Average time in the line = Wq = A customer waits for 0.13 hours in the que

b) Average number in the line = Lq = 1.33 customers waiting in the queue

c) Average time in the system = Ws = 12 minutes on average in the system

d) Average number in the system = Ls = 2 customers in the system

f) After adding a second teller, number of servers = C = 2


f. a) Wq =QTPMMS_Wq(10,15,2) = 0.00833333 hours = 0.5 minutes 

f. b) Lq = QTPMMS_Lq(10,15,2) = 0.083

f. c) Ws = 4.5

f. d) QTPMMS_L(10,15,2) = 0.75

Question 5 

a) It took 33 seconds for 10 cars to pass

b) Average is 3.3 for each car to pass

c) It’s almost the same, 33/10 = 3.3, adding up each individual seconds and then averaging
them gives the same result.

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