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Civ 2

- The document discusses various statistics related to testing, cases, and mortality rates for COVID-19. It notes that most countries have only tested 1.4% of their populations and many early cases went undetected. Estimates suggest the basic reproduction number for the virus is between 1.4-5.7. As of early May 2020, there have been over 3.7 million confirmed cases and 263,000 deaths globally from COVID-19. Mortality rates vary significantly by region and country.

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waseem555
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33 views

Civ 2

- The document discusses various statistics related to testing, cases, and mortality rates for COVID-19. It notes that most countries have only tested 1.4% of their populations and many early cases went undetected. Estimates suggest the basic reproduction number for the virus is between 1.4-5.7. As of early May 2020, there have been over 3.7 million confirmed cases and 263,000 deaths globally from COVID-19. Mortality rates vary significantly by region and country.

Uploaded by

waseem555
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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ses refers to the number

of people who have been tested for COVID-19, and whose test has been confirmed positive according to
official protocols.[344] As of 29 April, the countries that made public their testing data have on average performed
a number of tests equal to only 1.4 per cent of their population, while no country has tested samples equal to
more than 14 per cent of its population.[345] Many countries, early on, had official policies to not test those with
only mild symptoms.[346][347] An analysis of the early phase of the outbreak up to 23 January estimated 86 per
cent of COVID-19 infections had not been detected, and that these undocumented infections were the source
for 79 per cent of documented cases.[348] Several other studies, using a variety of methods, have estimated that
numbers of infections in many countries are likely to be considerably greater than the reported cases.[349][350]
On 9 April 2020, preliminary results found that 15 per cent of people tested in Gangelt, the centre of a major
infection cluster in Germany, tested positive for antibodies.[351] Screening for COVID-19 in pregnant women in
New York City, and blood donors in the Netherlands, has also found rates of positive antibody tests that may
indicate more infections than reported.[352][353] However, such antibody surveys can be unreliable due to a
selection bias in who volunteers to take the tests, and due to false positives. Some results (such as the
Gangelt study) have received substantial press coverage without first passing through peer review.[354]
Analysis by age in China indicates that a relatively low proportion of cases occur in individuals under 20.[355] It is
not clear whether this is because young people are actually less likely to be infected, or less likely to develop
serious symptoms and seek medical attention and be tested.[356]
Initial estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in January were between 1.4 and 2.5,
[357]
 but a subsequent analysis has concluded that it may be about 5.7 (with a 95 percent confidence interval of
3.8 to 8.9).[358]


[359]
Total confirmed cases of COVID-19 per million people
 

Epidemic curve of COVID-19 by date of report


 

Semi-log graph showing the total (cumulative) number of confirmed cases from the first reported date for the ten
[360]
most affected countries
 

Semi-log plot of daily new cases of Covid-19 (three-day average) in the world and top five countries (mean with
deaths)
 

Semi-log plot of cases in some countries with high growth rates (post-China) with three-day projections based
on the exponential growth rates
 

[361]
Daily confirmed cases per million by country
 

[362]
Linear plot of worldwide COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths
 

[363]
COVID-19 total cases per 100 000 population from selected countries

Deaths
Main article: Mortality due to COVID-19
Further information: List of deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019
Deceased in a 53-foot 'mobile morgue' outside a hospital in Hackensack, New Jersey, United States on 27 April
Most people who contract COVID-19 recover. For those who do not, the time between the onset of symptoms
and death ranges between 6 and 41 days, typically about 14 days.[364] As of 6 May 2020, approximately
263,000[5] deaths had been attributed to COVID-19. In China, as of 5 February, about 80 per cent of deaths
were recorded in those aged over 60, and 75 per cent had pre-existing health conditions including
cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.[365]
The first confirmed death was in Wuhan on 9 January 2020.[366] The first death outside China occurred on
1 February in the Philippines,[367] and the first death outside Asia was in France on 14 February.[368]
Official deaths from the COVID-19 generally refer to people who died after testing positive according to official
protocols. This may ignore deaths of people who die without testing, e.g. at home or in nursing homes.
[369]
 Conversely, deaths of people who had underlying conditions may lead to overcounting.[370] Comparison of
statistics for deaths for all causes versus the seasonal average indicates excess mortality in many countries.[371]
[372]
 In the worst affected areas, mortality has been several times higher than average. In New York City, deaths
have been four times higher than average, in Paris twice as high, and in many European countries deaths
have been on average 20 to 30 per cent higher than normal.[371] This excess mortality may include deaths due
to strained healthcare systems and bans on elective surgery.[373]
Several measures are commonly used to quantify mortality.[374] These numbers vary by region and over time,
and are influenced by the volume of testing, healthcare system quality, treatment options, time since initial
outbreak, and population characteristics, such as age, sex, and overall health.[375] Some countries (like Belgium)
include deaths from suspected cases of COVID-19, whether or not the person was tested, resulting in higher
numbers when compared to countries that include only test-confirmed cases.[376]
The death-to-case ratio reflects the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 divided by the number of
diagnosed cases within a given time interval. Based on Johns Hopkins University statistics, the global death-to-
case ratio is 7.0 per cent (263,068 deaths for 3,744,585 cases) as of 6 May 2020.[5] The number varies by
region.[377]

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