DROUGHT INDEX

 Percent of Normal Precipitation:

Index name: Percent of Normal Precipitation.

Ease of use: Green.

Origins: The percentage of any quantity is a simple statistical

formulation. The exact origin or first use is not known in describing
precipitation anomalies.

Characteristics: Simple calculation that can be used to compare any

time period for any location. Can be computed on daily, weekly,
monthly, seasonal and annual timescales, which will suit many users
needs. Calculated by dividing actual precipitation by normal
precipitation for the time being considered and multiplying by 100.

Input parameters: Precipitation values suitable for the timescale being

calculated. It is ideal to have at least 30 years’ worth of data for
calculation of the normal period.

Applications: Can be used for identifying and various impacts

of droughts.

Strengths: A popular method that is quick and easy to calculate with

basic mathematics.

Weaknesses: Establishing the normal for an area is a calculation that

some users could confuse with mean or average precipitation. It is hard
to compare different climate regimes with each other, especially those
with defined wet and dry seasons.
  Standardized Precipitation Index:
Index name: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).

Ease of use: Green.

Origins: The result of research and work done in 1992 at Colorado State
University, United States, by McKee et al. The outcome of their work
was first presented at the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, held
in January 1993. The basis of the index is that it builds upon the
relationships of drought to frequency, duration and timescales.

In 2009, WMO recommended SPI as the main meteorological drought

index that countries should use to monitor and follow drought
conditions (Hayes, 2011). By identifying SPI as an index for broad use,
WMO provided direction for countries trying to establish a level of
drought early warning.

Characteristics: Uses historical precipitation records for any location to

develop a probability of precipitation that can be computed at any
number of timescales, from 1 month to 48 months or longer. As with
other climatic indicators, the time series of data used to calculate SPI
does not need to be of a specific length. Guttman (1998, 1999) noted
that if additional data are present in a long time series, the results of
the probability distribution will be more robust because more samples
of extreme wet and extreme dry events are included.

SPI has an intensity scale in which both positive and negative values are
calculated, which correlate directly to wet and dry events. For drought,
there is great interest in the ‘tails’ of the precipitation distribution, and
especially in the extreme dry events, which are the events considered
to be rare based upon the climate of the region being investigated.
Drought events are indicated when the results of SPI, for whichever
timescale is being investigated, become continuously negative and
reach a value of -1. The drought event is considered to be ongoing until
SPI reaches a value of 0. McKee et al. (1993) stated that drought begins
at an SPI of -1 or less, but there is no standard in place, as some
researchers will choose a threshold that is less than 0, but not quite -1,
while others will initially classify drought at values less than -1.

Owing to the utility and flexibility of SPI, it can be calculated with data
missing from the period of record for a location. Ideally, the time series
should be as complete as possible, but SPI calculations will provide a
‘null’ value if there are insufficient data to calculate a value, and SPI will
begin calculating output again as data become available. SPI is typically
calculated for timescales of up to 24 months, and the flexibility of the
index allows for multiple applications addressing events that affect
agriculture, water resources and other sectors.

Input parameters: Precipitation. Most users apply SPI using monthly

datasets, but the computer programs have the flexibility to produce
results when using daily and weekly values. The methodology of SPI
does not change based upon using daily, weekly or monthly data.

Applications: The ability of SPI to be calculated at various timescales

allows for multiple applications. Depending on the drought impact in
question, SPI values for 3 months or less might be useful for basic
drought monitoring, values for 6 months or less for monitoring
agricultural impacts and values for 12 months or longer for hydrological
impacts. SPI can also be calculated on gridded precipitation datasets,
which allows for a wider scope of users than those just working with
station-based data.

Strengths: Using precipitation data only is the greatest strength of SPI,

as it makes it very easy to use and calculate. SPI is applicable in all
climate regimes, and SPI values for very different climates can be
compared. The ability of SPI to be computed for short periods of
record that contain missing data is also valuable for those regions that
may be data-poor or lacking long-term, cohesive datasets. The program
used to calculate SPI is easy to use and readily available.
NDMC provides a program for use on personal computers that has
been distributed to more than 200 countries around the world. The
ability to be calculated over multiple timescales also allows SPI to have
a wide breadth of application. Many articles relating to SPI are available
in the science literature, giving novice users a multitude of resources to
rely on for assistance.

Weaknesses: With precipitation as the only input, SPI is deficient when

accounting for the temperature component, which is important to the
overall water balance and water use of a region. This drawback can
make it more difficult to compare events of similar SPI values but
different temperature scenarios. The flexibility of SPI to be calculated
for short periods of record, or on data that contain many missing
values, can also lead to misuse of the output, as the program will
provide output for whatever input is provided. SPI assumes a prior
distribution, which may not be appropriate in all environments,
particularly when examining short-duration events or entry into, or exit
out of, drought. There are many versions of SPI available, implemented
within various computing software packages other than that found in
the source code distributed by NDMC. It is important to check the
integrity of these algorithms and the consistency of output with the
published versions.

 Palmer Drought Severity Index:

Index name: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI).

Ease of use: Yellow.

Origins: Developed in the 1960s as one of the first attempts to identify
droughts using more than just precipitation data. Palmer was tasked
with developing a method to incorporate temperature and
precipitation data with water balance information to identify droughts
in crop-producing regions of the United States. For many years, PDSI
was the only operational drought index, and it is still very popular
around the world.

Characteristics: Calculated using monthly temperature and

precipitation data along with information on the water-holding capacity
of soils. It takes into account moisture received (precipitation) as well
as moisture stored in the soil, accounting for the potential loss of
moisture due to temperature influences.

Input parameters: Monthly temperature and precipitation data.

Information on the water-holding capacity of soils can be used, but
defaults are also available. A serially complete record of temperature
and precipitation is required.

Applications: Developed mainly as a way to identify droughts affecting

agriculture, it has also been used for identifying and monitoring
droughts associated with other types of impacts. With the longevity of
PDSI, there are numerous examples of its use over the years.

Strengths: Used around the world, and the code and output are widely
available. Scientific literature contains numerous papers related to
PSDI. The use of soil data and a total water balance methodology makes
it quite robust for identifying drought.

Weaknesses: The need for serially complete data may cause problems.
PDSI has a timescale of approximately nine months, which leads to a lag
in identifying drought conditions based upon simplification of the soil
moisture component within the calculations. This lag may be up to
several months, which is a drawback when trying to identify a rapidly
emerging drought situation. Seasonal issues also exist, as the PDSI does
not handle frozen precipitation or frozen soils well.

 Surface Water Supply Index:

Index name: Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI).

Ease of use: Yellow.

Origins: Developed by Shafer and Dezman in 1982 to directly address

some of the limitations identified in PDSI.

Characteristics: Takes into account the work done by Palmer with PDSI
but adds additional information including water supply data (snow
accumulation, snowmelt and runoff, and reservoir data), and is
calculated at the basin level. SWSI identifies the approximate frequency
of mild drought occurrence at 26%–50%, moderate drought occurrence
at 14%–26%, and severe drought occurrence at 2%–14%. Extreme
drought occurs approximately less than 2% of the time.

Input parameters: Reservoir storage, streamflow, snowpack and

precipitation.

Applications: Used to identify drought conditions associated with

hydrological fluctuations.

Strengths: Taking into account the full water resources of a basin

provides a good indication of the overall hydrological health of
a particular basin or region.

Weaknesses: As data sources change or additional data are included,

the entire index has to undergo a recalculation to account for these
changes in the inputs, making it difficult to construct a homogeneous
time series. Since calculations may vary between basins, it is difficult to
compare basins or homogeneous regions.
  Reclamation Drought Index:
Index name: Reclamation Drought Index (RDI).

Ease of use: Red.

Origins: The United States Bureau of Reclamation developed this

drought index in the mid-1990s as a method to trigger drought
emergency relief funds associated with public lands.

Characteristics: Developed to define drought severity as well as

duration and can also be used to predict the onset and end of drought
periods. It has both wet and dry scales and is calculated at the river
basin level, in a similar way to the Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI).
RDI has water-demand and temperature components, which allow for
the inclusion of evaporation into the index.

Input parameters: Monthly precipitation, snowpack, reservoir levels,

streamflow and temperature.

Applications: Used mainly to monitor water supply for a river basin.

Strengths: Very specific to each basin. Unlike SWSI, it accounts for

temperature effects on climate. Wet and dry scales allow for
monitoring of wet and dry conditions.

Weaknesses: Calculations are made for individual basins, so

comparisons are hard to make. Having all the inputs in an operational
setting may cause delays in the production of data.

 Deciles:
Index name: Deciles.

Ease of use: Green.

Origins: A simple mathematical approach described by Gibbs and
Maher in 1967 through their work with the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology.

Characteristics: Using the entire period of record of precipitation data

for a location, the frequency and distribution of precipitation
are ranked. The first decile is composed of the rainfall amounts in
which the lowest 10% of the values are not exceeded, and the fifth
decile is the median. A wet scale is also available. Daily, weekly,
monthly, seasonal and annual values can all be considered in the
methodology, as it is flexible when current data are compared to the
historical record for any given period.

Input parameters: Precipitation only, and the timescale considered is

flexible.

Applications: With the ability to look at different timescales and time

steps, deciles can be used in meteorological, agricultural and
hydrological drought situations.

Strengths: With a single variable being considered, the methodology is

simple and flexible for many situations. Using clearly defined
thresholds, the current data are put into a historical context and
drought status can be recognized. Useful in both wet and dry situations.

Weaknesses: As with other indicators that use only precipitation, the

impacts of temperatures and other variables are not considered
during the development of drought. A long record period provides the
best results because many wet and dry periods will be included in the
distribution.