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Strategic political segmentation - A new approach for a new era of political marketing
Gareth Smith Andy Hirst
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Gareth Smith Andy Hirst, (2001),"Strategic political segmentation - A new approach for a new era of political
marketing", European Journal of Marketing, Vol. 35 Iss 9/10 pp. 1058 - 1073
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European
Journal of Strategic political
Marketing
35,9/10
segmentation
A new approach for a new era of political
1058 marketing
Received June 2000
Revised January 2001
Gareth Smith and Andy Hirst
Loughborough University Business School, Loughborough,
Leicestershire, UK
Keywords Politics, Marketing, Market segmentation, Strategy
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Abstract This article begins by analysing developments in political segmentation over the last
decade. Using an appropriate database and statistical approach, segments of the British
electorate are identified. Conservative and Liberal Democrat segments are then analysed and
issues affecting their likely electoral performance discussed. The Labour segments split into
distinctive ``old'' and ``new'' Labour camps. As attitudes differ widely across these segments, the
two most different segments are targeted for further analysis. The issues which most
discriminate between these two Labour segments are highlighted and some suggestions
forwarded on how policies might be positioned for these disparate segments. The article concludes
by considering the stability of political segments over time. It also discusses the limits of strategic
segmentation in politics and identifies further research opportunities.
targeted (i.e. segments that are very disparate/small, etc. might be ignored or
given less attention). Third, a better understanding of the targeted segments is
required. From this better understanding, parties and their policies may be
positioned more effectively; some issues having greater resonance with some
segments than others. Then the appropriate marketing mix activity may be Strategic
formulated in terms of the actual policy/issues to highlight or downplay for a political
given segment, the way to communicate with them and so on. segmentation
The segmentation, targeting, and positioning (STP) approach (Figure 1)
promises better targeted policies towards identified and attractive segments.
However, the political market is different from the private sector business
market (Lock and Harris, 1996). Positioning in politics, for example, is not a 1061
value free activity. Edmund Burke (1774) told the electors of Bristol ``Your
representative owes you, not his industry only but his judgement; and he
betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion''. His point is a
strong, modern warning against any ``full-blown'' STP approach that elevates
public opinion over the views of elected representatives ± with all that this
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would entail on issues such as repatriation, asylum seekers, the death penalty
and so on. The question of how far the STP process ought to be applied in a
liberal democracy is not clear-cut therefore and will be returned to later.
Research methodology
As indicated in Table II, ``a priori'' and ``post hoc'' approaches are the two basic
methods available for segmentation research (Green et al., 1988; Myers, 1996).
A priori segmentation occurs when the researcher decides how the segments
will be formed prior to conducting the research (e.g. using voters with high,
medium or low levels of party loyalty as the pre-determined segments whose
views will be researched). Post hoc segmentation involves no pre-judgement of
the segment bases at the outset. Instead the segmentation is achieved using a
statistical technique which places respondents into groups with others who
have similar views/responses to questions asked.
According to seminal research in the area, segmentation for ``understanding
the market'' should involve many bases for segmentation (Wind, 1978). Given
that the position faced at the outset of this research was to understand the
segments that exist in the British political market, all of the possible generic
bases of segmenting (attitudinal, behavioural, geographic and demographic)
were used. Also, as there was no real theoretical guidance for deciding
Figure 1.
A strategic process for
segmenting political
markets: the STP
approach
European Features
Journal of
Marketing Annual longitudinal survey (since 1984)
35,9/10 1,355 respondents
46 attitudinal questions covering:
Economic issues/taxation
1062 Social services
The EU
Single currency
Transport/car usage
Environmental protection
The green belt
Job satisfaction
Work ethic
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Left-right perceptionsa
Authoritarian-litertarian perceptionsa
Importance of social class
Two specific voting/behavioural questions:
Likely voting intentions
Strength of party identification (partisans, sympathisers or residual identifiers)
Eight classificatory (geographic and demographic) questions:
Sex
Age
Income
Occupation
Social class
Education
Region
Table II. Marital status
The British social
attitudes database, Note: a Left-right and authoritarian-libertarian are derived variables from other attitudinal
1997 questions within the survey. See Appendix for details
appropriate segmentation bases at the outset, the logical approach was to adopt
a post hoc methodology involving no prior judgement from the researchers.
Once segments are better understood, specific bases may be chosen a priori
to investigate issues that arise (Wind 1978). Thus, post hoc followed by a priori
approach is used herein. First, a wide listing of segmentation bases are used in
a post hoc way to break the market down into its constituent segments. A priori
segmentation is then used to investigate those specific issues signalled by the
previous post hoc segmentation. This latter stage equates to a party manager
subjectively choosing to investigate further an ``attractive'' segment with a view
to developing a positioning strategy for it. This research process follows,
therefore, the STP process identified in Figure 1.
Sampling frame
The latest available data from the British Social Attitudes survey (just prior to
the 1997 election) was used to segment the political market. It was chosen
because of the quality of its data that seeks to ``monitor and explain changes in Strategic
the social and political climate'' (Jowell et al., 1999). The survey combines political
enduring social issues relevant to politics (such as the economy and social segmentation
services) with currently salient issues (such as the environment, transport
policy, etc.). It also contains information on the partisan allegiances of
respondents plus relevant demographics and social classificatory data. Table II
provides more detail of the database's content. 1063
Data reduction and segment evaluation
As the database is so large, the first step was to use principal component
analysis to reduce it to more manageable proportions. Due to missing data, the
final sample size had 500 usable cases. Principal component analysis using
Varimax rotation was conducted with a solution determined by eigenvalues
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greater than 1. The final rotated solution explained 63.1 per cent of the variance
in the data. The individual factors were examined to establish internal
consistency using Cronbach's coefficient alpha (Devellis, 1991). Factors that
exhibited both strong internal consistency (i.e. alphas between 0.65 and 0.95)
and substantive meaning were summated to produce a single variable, and
variables that did not, were kept as a single item to prevent any significant loss
of meaning. This left 16 variables that were then used to cluster respondents.
Examination of clusters led to a clear seven-cluster solution. The attitude
data plus an appraisal of party identification and other demographic and non-
parametric data was then used to describe the nature of the clusters. The
results are presented in Table III.
After pre-examining the univariate and bivariate statistics, multiple
discriminant analysis (MDA) was performed using all 16 variables to examine
two important Labour segments (combined number of cases = 120). A stepwise
approach was used because theory provided little guidance for model
specification (O'Gorman and Woolson, 1991). Typically MDA is performed
with a hold out sample to measure the stability of the coefficients produced.
The low variable to case ratio meant that an alternative approach was needed.
The stability of the coefficients was therefore determined by examining the
results of progressively smaller samples (Kohli, 1989). The stepwise procedure
found five variables to be significant at the 0.001 per cent level and, as can be
seen from the classification, the variables chosen through the stepwise MDA
correctly classified 95.6 per cent of cases, which is much higher than would be
expected by chance. When the analysis was conducted on smaller samples the
results remained consistent. Therefore we can be confident that: the coefficients
are stable; and the variables provide good predictive validity. The results of the
analysis are presented in Table IV.
Analysis of results
Stage one. Identifying the segments ± the magnificent seven
Table III provides a synopsis of the findings resulting from the factor and
cluster analysis.
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1064
35,9/10
Table III.
European
Journal of
Marketing
Political segments
Segment I II III IV V VI VII
Name ``Old Labour'' ``Feel Tory Labour ``Underwhelmed'' ``Light Green Champagne
Poor Gooders'' Mainstreamers Nationalists Loyals Lefties'' Socialists
Share of populace (%) 19 5 27 12 14% 15 10
Party share of segments
Conservative (%) 25 47 60 26 41 23 8
Labour (%) 69 35 30 58 54 59 72
Liberal Democrat (%) 6 18 10 15 4 18 20
Party identificationa Labour Conservative Conservative Labour Labour and Labour Labour
partisans partisans partisans and partisans Conservative partisans and partisans
sympathisers partisans and sympathisers
sympathisers and residual
identifiers
Attitudes
Right vs lefta Left wing ± ± Left wing ± Very left wing Very left wing
Libertarian vs authoritariana ± ± ± ± ± ± Libertarian
NHS (run well) No Yes Yes No No No No
Social class (more important) Yes ± No Yes ± No Yes
Performance of GB economy Poorly Very well Well ± ± Very well ±
Lower taxes (at expense of No ± No No ± Definitely not Definitely not
social services)
Increase tax to increase ± ± No No ± Yes Yes
services
Positive/negative about EU ± ± ± Negative ± ± Positive
Pound vs Euro Keep pound Keep pound Keep pound Keep pound Keep pound Keep pound Keep pound
Feel good factors
More prosperity ± Yes ± ± ± ± ±
Job satisfaction ± Yes ± ± ± ± Yes
(continued)
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Table III.
segmentation
Strategic
political
1065
European Old New
Journal of Labour Labour Predictive group
Discriminant variables Coefficient (mean) (mean) membership
Marketing
35,9/10 Control car usage 0.652 3.22 1.85 Old (%) New (%)
+ve or ±ve about EU 0.384 3.23 2.53 Old Labour 95.6 4.4
1066 Performance of economy 0.372 3.66 3.04 New Labour 4.3 95.7
Green belt protection 0.356 2.1 1.35 95.6% correctly classified
Lower taxes/worse social ±0.751 3.7 4.67
services
Summary statistics:
Eigenvalue = 2.365
Table IV. Wilks's lambda = 0.73
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The seven clusters/segments that resulted reflect the overall popularity of the
Labour party in the immediate run-up to the election. They are the clear leaders
in four segments (I, IV, VI and VII). By way of contrast, the Conservatives are
the main group in two (III and II). As with a similar analysis ten years ago,
(Smith and Saunders, 1990), Liberal Democrat problems are reflected in their
not ``owning'' any segments.
The Conservative position is an interesting one. Segment III is by far their
biggest segment. It also unites a wide range of Tory voters in terms of their
level of allegiance to the party. Both partisans and sympathisers are well
represented therein (see Appendix for definitions). Also, there is a notably wide
spread of income, education, occupation and region. Despite these differences,
the Tory voters in this segment are remarkably similar in not feeling very
strongly about any of the social and economic issues covered. It is for this
reason that they have been dubbed ``Tory Mainstreamers'' ± though ``middle of
the roaders'' would fit equally well. Interestingly, this segment shows
similarities with another segment, the ``Underwhelmed Loyalists'' (Segment V).
It too has a strong presence of partisan Conservatives and they similarly do not
feel strongly about the issues of the day. As Segment V also has a high number
of Labour loyalists it is possible that both segments are relatively apolitical
despite their partisanship. They may well reflect voting behaviour that is
habitual and historical, as typified by social class/family based voting (Butler
and Stokes, 1971). It is also tempting to interpret the Tory Mainstreamers'
moderation as a sign of resignation about the general election to come but this
would be pushing the data too far. It may be that there are other factors driving
behaviour in these segments that have not been identified from the data
collected.
The other Conservative segment (Segment II), whilst much smaller, is
dominated by Conservative partisans. As signified by the title allocated to
them, these ``feel gooders'' are happy about lots of things ± their job, the
increased prosperity of the country, the way the economy is performing. They Strategic
are even happy with the way the NHS is run. Their salaries are not great yet political
and their age suggests they are starting rather than finishing their careers. segmentation
Most of the Liberal Democrats' support (63 per cent) is in segments
dominated by Labour. Also, given the party's long-term commitment to
libertarianism and environmentalism, it must be of concern that they do not
perform better in the Labour Segments VI and VII, where these issues are seen 1067
as particularly important. In fact, their support is relatively uniformly spread
across all the segments, despite the marked differences between the segments.
It is interesting, for example, that the biggest single group of Liberal Democrat
voters is in the largest Conservative segment, the Tory Mainstreamers (i.e.
segment III). It may be that the party means many things to many people or
their supporters are voting against the other parties rather than for Liberal
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The two Labour segments that look the most different at a superficial level
of analysis are Segments I and VII (a fact confirmed in general terms by the
partitioning process in the cluster analysis ± those at the extreme ends being
the most different in their expressed attitudes). They are the two segments
most likely to pose problems for the party managers and, as such, they have
been chosen for further analysis. The choice is a managerial/a priori one
reflecting the likely information needed by party managers seeking to develop
a coherent positioning strategy across apparently disparate Labour segments.
issues may be used for both groups. With regard to the two environmental
issues where they differ, a strong message on environmental protection that
both groups are in favour of (as shown in the cluster analysis) might be
effective if it did not highlight the potentially divisive issues of car usage and
the green belt. Failing this, a more targeted approach using direct marketing
might be a viable way of talking to the two separately. With regard to their
differences about how well the economy is doing, the positioning decision is
straightforward. As the opposition party in the run-up to an election, a line
critical of Conservative economic management would suit both segments. With
regard to the EU issue, this was seen to be splitting the Conservative Party
more than the Labour party at the time. The obvious positioning strategy for
the two segments would therefore point out the opposition's divisions whilst
keeping Labour's own options as open as possible. Finally, the lowering taxes
versus improving other social services (such as pensions) would be an issue
that the Labour party would wish to keep separate, reflecting as it does the old
``tax and spend'' Labour image. In hindsight, one of Labour's great successes in
the 1997 election campaign was the fact that they managed to convince the
electorate that they would manage the economy prudently, not put up taxes
whilst prioritising the most needy in society ± a major positioning achievement.
Conclusions
This research has segmented the British political market into seven distinctive
groupings. The segments are understandable and offer an opportunity for each
party to communicate their policies more effectively to the electorate. It is also
possible to compare the segments from this research with those of a decade
ago. A study using an earlier British Social Attitudes database and the same
segmentation approach produced a six-cluster solution (Smith and Saunders,
1990). The fact that clear and understandable segments have been identified in
both studies lends weight to their validity. Also it is possible to compare and
contrast them to assess segment stability over time. Some differences are
readily observable, as one might expect given the changes to the political
landscape. Developments include a re-packaged and attractive opposition (New
European Labour), a divided government (the Conservatives over the EU), greater
Journal of cynicism towards politics generally, all set against a backdrop of reduced party
loyalty (Crewe, 1993). So, for example there are two radical left wing segments
Marketing (VI and VII) in this research compared to one a decade ago. However, there are
35,9/10 signs of segment stability as well with the ``Old Labour Poor'' (Segment I)
looking very similar to the ``Poor Outsiders'' segment of the previous research.
1070 Similarly, the ``Tory Mainstreamers'' of this study have similarities with the so-
called ``Hardcore Conservative Traditionalists'' of a decade ago. The
comparison therefore suggests change but with enduring segments. Certain
generic influences such as traditional conservatism and poverty will produce
segment stability over time. Other segments that are influenced by recent social
and political factors (e.g. a new left-of-centre offering) may well change from
election to election.
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The article has also considered the targeting process as applied to politics by
focusing on two disparate Labour segments. There are, however, numerous
other ways that might have been chosen for targeting segments. Obviously,
Conservative and Liberal Democrat party managers would be more interested
in targeting those segments where their support is strongest. Targeting
``competitor'' segments would also be possible and a potentially useful
approach. For example, the Conservatives might be particularly interested in
those Labour segments where anti-EU sentiment is strongest, with a view to
converting voters. It has already been noted that the Liberal Democrats might
be interested in those Labour segments (VI and VII) which show radical,
libertarian values. In addition, targeting segments by their relative
partisanship would be of interest to party managers of all persuasions. For
example, targeting those segments with high levels of other parties' ``residual
identifiers'' (i.e. weakly partisan voters) and finding out the issues that are most
important to them might well produce an electoral advantage. Each of these
targeting approaches presents, therefore, a new research avenue for marketing
academics and practitioners.
The successful use of the STP process to guide this research clearly shows
that it is possible to follow a strategic approach to market segmentation in
politics. Two segments were chosen deliberately because of their differences
and it was still possible to develop a positioning strategy that would be viable
for both, whilst not being contradictory. However, the danger remains that a
``full blown'' STP approach would push parties to be ``all things to all people''
resulting in them looking short-term and opportunistic in the eyes of the
electorate.
Accordingly, boundaries need to be set when using the STP approach within
politics. The enduring ideology of the three main parties (socialism,
conservatism and liberalism) offers the most likely safeguard against any
excess. The fragmentation of messages across segments that positioning might
encourage would be seen as lacking ideological consistency and credibility and
thus be rejected by voters (Butler and Collins, 1994).
Finally, it is worth noting that, although the research reported here focuses
on party politics in Britain, the methodology can be applied in a wider political
context. It will be relevant to any democratic process where two or more parties Strategic
or directly elected individuals (as in the case of presidential/London Mayoral/ political
local elections) are competing for the support of an identifiable group of segmentation
electors.
We started this article by introducing the concept of a strategic approach to
segmentation. Having identified the lack of any real sign of such a process
either in practice or from a theoretical perspective we have suggested a 1071
methodology to proceed and provided a worked example for a major political
party. Now, as ten years ago, it is clear that the pursuit of a competitive
advantage is going to force an ever-increasingly sophisticated marketing
approach in politics. Political parties will become better at positioning their
parties towards identified targeted segments with attractive policies. In 2010
we may well be confirming the presence of the strategic era of marketing
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