Solutions to Exercise 4

Marvin Rausand
Email: [email protected]

2008-09-16

Problem 3.6
(a) The structure function for the reliability block diagram is derived by straight-
forward calculation:

φ(x) = (x 1  x 2  x 3 )(x 4  x 5 )
= [(x 1 + x 2 − x 1 x 2 )  x 3 ](x 4 + x 5 − x 4 x 5 )
= (x 1 + x 2 + x 3 − x 1 x 2 − x 1 x 3 − x 2 x 3 + x 1 x 2 x 3 )(x 4 + x 5 − x 4 x 5 )
= x1 x4 + x1 x5 + x2 x4 + x2 x5 + x3 x4 + x3 x5 − x1 x2 x4 − x1 x2 x5
−x 1 x 3 x 4 − x 1 x 3 x 5 − x 1 x 4 x 5 − x 2 x 3 x 4 − x 2 x 3 x 5 − x 2 x 4 x 5
−x 3 x 4 x 5 + x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 + x 1 x 2 x 3 x 5 + x 1 x 2 x 4 x 5 + x 1 x 3 x 4 x 5
+x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 − x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5

(b) The block diagram has the following path and cut sets:

Path sets Cut sets

Non-minimal Minimal Non-minimal Minimal
{x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 } {x1 , x4 } {x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 } {x1 , x2 , x3 }
{x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 } {x1 , x5 } {x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 } {x4 , x5 }
{x1 , x2 , x3 , x5 } {x2 , x4 } {x1 , x2 , x3 , x5 }
{x1 , x2 , x4 , x5 } {x2 , x5 } {x1 , x2 , x4 , x5 }
{x1 , x3 , x4 , x5 } {x3 , x4 } {x1 , x3 , x4 , x5 }
{x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 } {x3 , x5 } {x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 }
{x1 , x2 , x4 } {x1 , x4 , x5 }
{x1 , x2 , x5 } {x2 , x4 , x5 }
{x1 , x3 , x4 } {x3 , x4 , x5 }
{x1 , x3 , x5 }
{x2 , x3 , x4 }
{x2 , x3 , x5 }
{x1 , x4 , x5 }
{x2 , x4 , x5 }
{x3 , x4 , x5 }

1
(c) Considering the system as a parallel structure of the minimal path series
structures, the structure function is derived by:

6
φ(x) = ρ j (x)
j =1
= (x 1 x 4 )  (x 1 x 5 )  (x 2 x 4 )  (x 2 x 5 )  (x 3 x 4 )  (x 3 x 5 )
= (x 1 x 4 + x 1 x 5 − x 1 x 4 x 5 )  (x 2 x 4 + x 2 x 5 − x 2 x 4 x 5 )
 (x 3 x 4 + x 3 x 5 − x 3 x 4 x 5 )
= (x 1 x 4 + x 1 x 5 − x 1 x 4 x 5 + x 2 x 4 + x 2 x 5 − x 2 x 4 x 5 − x 1 x 2 x 4
−(x 1(x 2( x(
x 4( 5 +( x 2(
x 1( x 4(x(5 −(x 1(x 2( x(
x 4( 5 − x1 x2 x5
+(x 1( x 4(
x 2( (
x5 + x1 x2 x4 x5 +( x 1( x 4(
x 2( (
x5 −( x 2(
x 1( x 4(x(5)
 (x 3 x 4 + x 3 x 5 − x 3 x 4 x 5 )
= x1 x4 + x1 x5 − x1 x4 x5 + x2 x4 + x2 x5 − x2 x4 x5 − x1 x2 x4
−x 1 x 2 x 5 + x 1 x 2 x 4 x 5 + x 3 x 4 + x 3 x 5 − x 3 x 4 x 5 − x 1 x 3 x 4
−(
x 1(x 3(x 4(x(5 +(x 1(x 3( x(
x 4( 5 −( x 4(
x 3(
x 1( x(5 − x1 x3 x5
+(
x 1(x 3( ( (
x4 x5 + x1 x3 x4 x5 +( x 3(
x 1( ( (
x4 x5 −( x 1(x 3(x 4(x(5
−x 2 x 3 x 4 − ( x 3(
x 2( ((
x4 x5 +( x 2(x 3( (
(
x4 x5 −( x 3(
x 2( (
x4 x5(

−x 2 x 3 x 5 + ( x 3(x 4((
x5 + x2 x3 x4 x5 +( x 3(x 4(x( x 4(
x 3( x(
x 2( x 2( 5 −( x 2( 5
+x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 + (
x 1(x 2(x 3( x(
x 4( − ( ( (+ x x (
(
5 (1(2 3 4 5 (1(2 3 4 5
x x x x x x (
x (
x(

+x 1 x 2 x 3 x 5 − (
x 1( ( ( ((
x2 x3 x4 x5 − x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 −( x 1(x 2( x(
x 4(
x 3( 5
+(
x 1(x 2( ( (
x3 x4 x5(

= x1 x4 + x1 x5 + x2 x4 + x2 x5 + x3 x4 + x3 x5 − x1 x2 x4 − x1 x2 x5
−x 1 x 3 x 4 − x 1 x 3 x 5 − x 1 x 4 x 5 − x 2 x 3 x 4 − x 2 x 3 x 5 − x 2 x 4 x 5
−x 3 x 4 x 5 + x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 + x 1 x 2 x 3 x 5 + x 1 x 2 x 4 x 5 + x 1 x 3 x 4 x 5
+x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 − x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5

(d) Considering the system as a series structure of the minimal cut parallel
structures, the structure function is derived by:

2
φ(x) = κ j (x) = (x 1  x 2  x 3 ) (x 4  x 5 )
j =1
= [(x 1 + x 2 − x 1 x 2 )  x 3 ] (x 4 + x 5 − x 4 x 5 )
= (x 1 + x 2 − x 1 x 2 + x 3 − x 1 x 3 − x 2 x 3 + x 1 x 2 x 3 )(x 4 + x 5 − x 4 x 5 )
= x1 x4 + x1 x5 + x2 x4 + x2 x5 + x3 x4 + x3 x5 − x1 x2 x4 − x1 x2 x5
−x 1 x 3 x 4 − x 1 x 3 x 5 − x 1 x 4 x 5 − x 2 x 3 x 4 − x 2 x 3 x 5 − x 2 x 4 x 5
−x 3 x 4 x 5 + x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 + x 1 x 2 x 3 x 5 + x 1 x 2 x 4 x 5 + x 1 x 3 x 4 x 5
+x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 − x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5

(e) The structure function can be obtained by “direct approach”, by using the

2
 fact that the system may be considered as a parallel structure of the mini-
mal path series structures, or by using the fact that the system may be con-
sidered as a series structure of the minimal cut parallel structures. These
approaches are always equivalent. It is seen from (a), (c), and (d) above
that all approaches yield the same structure function.

Problem 3.7
When x 1 = 1 there is a connection between the endpoints, regardless of the value
of x i , i = 1. This implies that the lower 1-block can be removed without chang-
ing the systems structure function. This results in two 2-blocks in series, which
means that one of them can be removed. The resulting simplified block diagram
is illustrated in Figure 1.

3
2
4

Figure 1: Simplified reliability block diagram – Problem 3.7

The system structure function is calculated as:

φ(x) = x 1  [x 2 (x 3  x 4 )]
= x 1  [x 2 (x 3 + x 4 − x 3 x 4 )]
= x 1  (x 2 x 3 + x 2 x 4 − x 2 x 3 x 4 )
= x1 + x2 x3 + x2 x4 − x2 x3 x4 − x1 x2 x3 − x1 x2 x4 + x1 x2 x3 x4

Problem 3.13
By pivotal decomposition (see page 136 in the book) we get

φ(x) ≡ x i φ(1i , x) + (1 − x i )φ(0i , x)

This problem can be solved in several ways. We may use pivotal decomposition
on component 3 and thereafter on component 4, or we may consider compo-
nents 3 and 4 as a module I . Module I is a parallel structure of components 3
and 4 with structure function (state variable)

x I = x3  x4 = x3 + x4 − x3 x4

The resulting structure, with module I as a ‘supercomponent’ is now a standard

bridge structure, and we can use pivotal decomposition on ‘component’ I

φ(x) = x I φ(1I , x) + (1 − x I )φ(0I , x)

3
The solution is similar to Example 3.9 in the book, and we get

φ(1I , x) = (x 1  x 2 )(x 5  x 6 ) = (x 1 + x 2 − x 1 x 2 )(x 5 + x 6 − x 5 x 6 )

and

φ(10 , x) = x 1 x 5  x 2 x 6 = x 1 x 5 + x 2 x 6 − x 1 x 2 x 5 x 6

The structure function of the system is therefore:

φ(x) = (x 3 + x 4 − x 3 x 4 )(x 1 + x 2 − x 1 x 2 )(x 5 + x 6 − x 5 x 6 )

+(1 − (x 3 + x 4 − x 3 x 4 ))(x 1 x 5 + x 2 x 6 − x 1 x 2 x 5 x 6 )

Problem 4.5
At least one of the components must survive in order for the system to survive.
Using

Pr(At least one component survives) = 1 − Pr(All components fail)

we get the following inequality:


n
RS = 1 − (1 − R i ) ≥ 0.99, R i = R = 0.65 ∀ i
i =1

Solving for n:

1 − (1 − R)n ≥ 0.99
n ln(1 − R) ≤ ln(0.01)
ln(0.01) ln(0.01)
n ≥ = = 4.39
ln(1 − R) ln(0.35)
Since n must be an integer, at least 5 components are required.

Problem 4.6
(a) The two systems are parallel structures of two or three series structures
(branches), each consisting of a pump and a filter. The availability for one
branch is

p = 0.968 · 0.992 = 0.960

Let X denote the number of branches that function. The random variable
X has a binomial distribution (n, p). The probability that at least k com-
ponents are functioning in a system of n independent components is
 
n n
Pr(X ≥ k) = p x (1 − p)n−x
x=k x

4
 For system 1, the probability that both branches are available is

Pr(X ≥ 2, n = 2) = 0.9602
= 0.922

Whereas for system 2 we get

 
3 3 x
Pr(X ≥ 2, n = 3) = p (1 − p)3−x
x=2 x
   
3 2 1 3 3
= p (1 − p) + p
2 3
= 3p 2 − 2p 3 = 0.995

(b) The expected daily cost for system 1 is

E (Cost of system 1) = 10 000 · [1 − Pr(X ≥ 2)] + 2 · (15 + 60) = 929

The expected daily cost for system 2 is

E (Cost of system 2) = 10 000 · [1 − Pr(X ≥ 2)] + 3 · (15 + 60) = 271

System 2 has the lowest cost and is therefore the preferred choice.