Toms Slides
Toms Slides
TradeGuider U.S.
Mentorship Course
You all trade LIVE with an Infinity AT simulator in the live market.
Tom and I will be trading our live accounts – You can trade as one
group or individually, you decide.
Mentorship Sessions – Times
All times are CHICAGO CST
(pacific 2 hours behind / eastern 1 hour ahead)
Session 1 and 2 – Monday 6th August 1.00pm – 4.00pm
Session 3 and 4 – Tuesday 7th August 1.00pm – 4.00pm
Session 5 and 6 – Wednesday 8th August 1.00pm – 4.00pm
Session 7 and 8 – Thursday 9th August 1.00pm – 4.00pm
Session 9 and 10 – Friday 10th August 1.00pm - 4.00pm
Mentorship Objectives Europe session
• Better timing
• How to cut losing trades quickly and know why
• Learn to trade well for the sake of trading well
• Mental preparation
• Fewer but better trades
• How to deal with the delay on the daily data to set up for the next day.
• Proper stop placement.
• Highest probability entries
• Confidence in reading the market correctly
• Identifying accumulation and distribution
• Learning correct exits
• How to identify absorption volume
Mentorship Objectives
• How to identify when a stock is ready to short or go long.
• To re-enforcement of existing knowledge gained through books.
• Trade Management and Risk assessment
• Creating a Trading Plan
• Learn one VSA high probability VSA set up.
• Build a small account using good risk management.
• How to be the read background correctly.
• How to be a better, disciplined trader using risk management and VSA
system.
• How to maximize profits.
• How to identify a high probability VSA sequence.
Mentorship Objectives
• To learn all the VSA principles and then put them into context to
include background and trade set ups.
• To learn how to identify the highest probability low risk entries
using VSA.
• To learn how to clearly identify professional distribution and
accumulation and know where and when to take a trade.
• To learn how to identify market tops and bottoms.
• To understand the “Herd” and “Weak Holders” and how to avoid
becoming either of these!
• What is a “Shakeout” and how to recognize and profit from this
maneuver by professionals.
Mentorship Objectives Contd
• Understanding the “Upthrust” and where to place a trade after you
see this.
• To learn the significance of the range or spread on any individual
bar and how to put it in context with the background.
• Understand why the background is vital to placing a trade at the
right edge.
• To learn why multiple timeframes are important and how to choose
the right timeframe for your chosen market.
• Understanding what is a “Test” and the different types of “Tests”
that can be both bullish and bearish.
Chart Reading Mentorship
Objectives Contd
• To learn how to identify VSA patterns as they appear and be patient
to get the best entry. All VSA patterns seen in hindsight must have
been there as they unfolded.
• To get your questions answered about specific issues you are having
with your trading/investing and gain confidence in your chart
reading ability.
• To understand Supply and Demand and the effect the imbalance
has on the chart.
• To know the best place to put a stop loss, market order and buy/sell
order above or below price action.
• To learn from other like minded traders.
What Qualities Makes a Good
Trader and Investor
• Patience
• Timing
• Confidence
• Study
• Self Discipline
• Mastering VSA
• Do what the VSA Experts Do
• Desire / Will to win
• Focus
• Understanding the game with an open mind
What Qualities Makes a
Good Trader and Investor
• BELIEF!!
• Educated
• Has trading plan that works.
• Good risk management.
• Concentration.
• Independent in thought.
• Be contrarian / believe the charts.
• Coping with fear.
• Following the system that you are comfortable with.
• If you are wrong – CLOSE THE TRADE!!!
What is Volume Spread
Analysis
The Basic Concept
The Naked Chart
The Major VSA Patterns
VSA Signs Of
Weakness
With Trade Set Ups
Signs of Weakness
• Up bars, narrow or wide spread, close high, middle or low.
• Volume can be high or low.
• Narrow spread indicates supply.
• This supply “caps” any attempt to move up.
• Ultra high volume up bars (the classic trap of “Smart Money!!)
• Professionals have no interest in the upside – Low volume.
• Professionals are selling into the public buying – Higher volume.
• High + volume shows supply – public buying – smart money selling.
• Low – volume shows no interest from “Smart Money” so prices will
not go higher.
BEWARE OF ULTRA HIGH VOLUME UP
BARS – THEY ARE USUALLY WEAK
BARS DRIVEN BY NEWS
SOW – Principle 1 – The End Of A Rising Market
• Wait for the market to ROLL OVER, almost like the top
of a mushroom.
• We need to see a DOWNTREND forming. Look for the
market to make lower high’s on the price bar each day.
• As the market falls we wait for a NO DEMAND up bar,
an UPTHRUST on either high or low volume (which we
will explain shortly) that is the place to enter a short
position.
Mushrooming Over = Distribution
Chart 3
US Stock JPM -High Probability Short Entry – Chart 4
Tom Williams Simple Trending
System For Short Trading
• Identify a serious sign of weakness first, such as End of a Rising Market,
Buying Climax or Ultra High Volume or Low Volume Upthrusts. These
should be followed by NO DEMAND.
• Wait for at least 10 BARS IN ANY TIMEFRAME to see the result of the
weakness.
• In a strong downtrend we should see increasing volume (not excessive or
ultra high) on down bars and decreasing volume on up bars.
• In a downtrend you can allow for 2 up bars if they are on low volume.
Ignore level bars or near level bars, that is a bar that has closed at or near
the same price as previous bar.
• The end of the downtrend is often seen by two consecutive up bars
followed by a Test or No Supply down bar.
Identifying and Staying In a Downtrend – Chart 5
GBP/USD FOREX Trade Entry To Short
in a downtrend Chart 6
SOW – Principle 2 – No Demand at Market Top
• After you have seen this VSA set up which will often
mark a top you should wait for the market to trend
down, entering a short trade when you see a clear No
Demand Entry or Upthrust on either low or high volume
as the market trends down.
Before taking a short position
• Have you seen a rollover and is the market in early stages of downtrend
or still in an uptrend?
• Is the market falling with no professional support?
• Is the low of each bar lower than the previous bar? (you may allow 1 up
bar for every 2 down bars for a downtrend)
• Are you into fresh high ground when distribution starts?
• Is there a trading range to the left?
• Is there lots of GOOD NEWS about this particular market?
• Is the market in an overbought area of the trend channel?
• Is there End Of A Rising Market / Buying Climax in the background?
• Are you entering on a down bar – remember weakness appears on up
bars?
Commodity Futures Information
VSA Signs Of
Strength with
Trade Set Ups
Signs of Strength
• Down bars, narrow spread, close middle or low.
• Volume can be high or low.
• Narrow spread indicates no professional selling.
• This buying prevents any attempt to move down.
• Ultra high volume down bars (the classic trap of “Smart Money!!)
• Professionals have no interest in the downside – low volume.
• Professionals are buying into the public selling – Higher volume.
• High + volume shows demand – public selling – smart money
buying.
• Low – volume shows no interest to the downside from “Smart
Money” so prices will not go lower.
SOS – Principle 1 – Bottom Reversal
The Test. This is a very common Sign of Strength frequently seen just
before an up move. You must have strength in the background. A test is
doing exactly what is says, it is testing something, it is testing for supply.
Too much supply the market will fall, if there is no more supply the
market must go up. If there is still too much supply a test can fail and if
you see a failed test in a weak market it confirms that the market will
continue to fall. Tests need TWO BARS to confirm strength. A test can
FAIL so we wait for the next bar to be up to confirm strength but we
MUST have strength in the background. If you have weakness in the
background and you see a test and the next bar is DOWN, this is a
strong sign of additional weakness and is called a FAILED TEST.
US Stock Goldman Sachs –
The Test in a Bull Run – Chart 30
E-Mini S&P - The Test On Very Low Volume
Chart 31
UK Stock Barclays The
Test After Strength – Chart 32
UK Stock Barclays The Test After Strength - Entry Bars
Chart 33
Going Long AFTER you see a test