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CHAP3.0 - STA116 - Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distribution - Part3

The document discusses the Poisson distribution, which models the number of events occurring in a fixed period of time when the probability of each event is independent. It provides the formula for the Poisson probability distribution and explains how to calculate the mean and variance. Examples are given to demonstrate how to compute probabilities using the Poisson formula or probability tables. The document also discusses approximating the binomial distribution with the Poisson distribution when certain conditions are met.

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Ay Sy
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238 views

CHAP3.0 - STA116 - Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distribution - Part3

The document discusses the Poisson distribution, which models the number of events occurring in a fixed period of time when the probability of each event is independent. It provides the formula for the Poisson probability distribution and explains how to calculate the mean and variance. Examples are given to demonstrate how to compute probabilities using the Poisson formula or probability tables. The document also discusses approximating the binomial distribution with the Poisson distribution when certain conditions are met.

Uploaded by

Ay Sy
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CHAPTER 3

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES


& PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
STA116 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Part 3

Session 2 2019/2020
#hapuscovid19
#covidiots
#stayhome

adiHAKIMtalib
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• A discrete probability distribution that is useful when n is large and p is small and
when the independent variables occur over a period of time is called the Poisson
distribution
• The Poisson distribution can also be used when a density of items is distributed
over a given area or volume
For example:
- The number of plants growing per acre
- The number of defects in a given length of videotape
- The number of misprints on a page of book
- The number of customers entering a post office in a given day
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• Poisson probability distribution is given by
𝒆−𝝀 𝝀𝒙
𝑷 𝑿; 𝝀 = 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒙 = 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, . . . .
𝒙!
Where;
λ = Greek letter, lambda is a mean number of occurrences per unit (time, volume, area, etc.)
e = a constant approximately equal to 2.7183
round the answer to 4 decimal places
• The mean, μ of a variable that has binomial distribution can be found by using
the following formula
μ=λ
• Variance, 𝛔2 is
𝛔2 = λ
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• Example 1:
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page manuscript,
find the probability that a given page contains
a. exactly 3 errors.
In this case; x = 3 and λ = 200/500 = 0.4, hence
X ~ Po (0.4)
2.7183−0.4 0.43
P(X = 3) =
3!
P(X = 3) = 0.0072
Thus, there is less than a 1% chance that any given page will contains exactly 3
errors
COMPUTING PROBABILITY BY USING TABLE
• Computing probability by using the Poisson formula can be quite tedious at times, so
tables have been developed for selected values of λ = m.
• Table 2 gives the Cumulative Poisson Probabilities
Consider
X ~ Po (0.5), using Cumulative Poisson
Probabilities table, find:
• P(X ≥ 2) = 0.0902
• P(X > 2) = P(X ≥ 3) = 0.0144
• P(X ≤ 2) = P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 3)
• P(X ≤ 2) = 1 – 0.0144
• P(X ≤ 2) = 0.9856
• P(X < 2) = P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 2)
• P(X < 2) = 1 – 0.0902
• P(X < 2) = 0.9098
EXAMPLE
• Example 2:
The number of accidents occurring in a factory in a week follows Poisson distribution
with mean 2.8. Find the probability
a. No accident occur in 1 week
In this case; x = 0 and λ = 2.8, hence
X ~ Po (2.8)
2.7183−2.8 2.80
P(X = 0) =
0!
P(X = 0) = 0.0608
Thus, there is 6.08% chance that no accident occur in 1 week
b. More than 3 accidents in 1 week
In this case; refer table for x = 4 and λ = 2.8, hence
P(X > 3) = P(X ≥ 4) = 0.3081
Thus, there is 30.81% chance that there will be more than 3 accidents occur in 1week
EXAMPLE
• Example 2 (cont.):
c. Less than 3 accidents in 1 week
= P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 3)
= 1 – 0.5305
= 0.4695
Thus, there is 46.95% chance that there will be less than 3 accidents occur in 1
week
d. More than 3 accidents in 2 weeks
In this case; refer table for x = 4 and λ = 2.8(2) = 5.6, hence
X ~ Po (5.6)
P(X > 3) = P(X ≥ 4) = 0.8094
Thus, there is 80.94% chance that there will be more than 3 accidents occur in 2
weeks
EXAMPLE
• Example 3:
Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the
probability that tourist will see fewer than four lions on the nest 1-day safari?
In this case; x = 0 , 1, 2 and 3 with λ = 5, hence
X ~ Po (5)
P(X < 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)
or by referring Table 2 for Cumulative Poisson Probabilities
P(X < 4) = P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 4)
P(X < 4) = 1 – 0.7350
P(X < 4) = 0.2650
POISSON APPROXIMATION
• The Poisson distribution can be used to approximate the Binomial distribution
• If X ~ Bin (n, p) with n > 30 and p < 0.10, then X can be approximate by a Poisson
distribution with mean, λ = np and therefore, X ~ Po (np) for X = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . .
• Mean, μ = λ = np and variance, 𝛔2 = λ = np

• Example 4:
If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are left-handed, find
the probability that exactly 5 people there are left-handed.
since n = 200 > 30 and p = 0.02 < 0.10, this Binomial distribution can be approximate by using
Poisson distribution, hence
X ~ Po (4)
P(X = 5) = (2.7183)-4(4)5 / 5!
P(X = 5) = 0.1563

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