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Tutorial Exercise On Forecasting

This document contains 3 problems related to forecasting techniques for engineering and society coursework. Problem 1 involves calculating 3-month and 4-month moving averages of demand data and forecasting the 16th month. Problem 2 involves plotting production data over time, determining a linear trend equation, and calculating specific data points. Problem 3 involves forecasting monthly labor needs using various techniques like moving averages, naive method, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing, and recommending the best technique based on accuracy metrics.

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Shavin Chand
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83 views

Tutorial Exercise On Forecasting

This document contains 3 problems related to forecasting techniques for engineering and society coursework. Problem 1 involves calculating 3-month and 4-month moving averages of demand data and forecasting the 16th month. Problem 2 involves plotting production data over time, determining a linear trend equation, and calculating specific data points. Problem 3 involves forecasting monthly labor needs using various techniques like moving averages, naive method, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing, and recommending the best technique based on accuracy metrics.

Uploaded by

Shavin Chand
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PEB 702 Engineering & Society

Semester 1 2020

Tutorial Exercises

Individual Submission

Due: 9 May 2020

Problem 1. The demand for an item is observed for 15 months and recorded
below:

Month Actual Demand 3monthly moving 4 monthly moving


average average
1 280
2 288
3 266
4 295
5 302
6 310
7 303
8 328
9 309
10 315
11 320
12 332
13 310
14 308
15 320
16 ?

Requirements:

1. Calculate 3 monthly and 4 monthly moving averages


2. What is the forecast for the month 16th for each.
3. Graph and compare the 3 forecast (actual demand, 3montly and 4 monthly
averages)
Problem 2. (5 marks). Annual productions of mechanical casings by Company
Duterte since 1997 are as follows: (marks)

Year Time (X) Production ,(000) (Y)


1998 1 4
1999 2 8
2000 3 5
2001 4 8
2002 5 11
2003 6 9
2004 7 11
2005 8 14

Requirements:

a) Plot the production data.


b) Determine the linear trend equation.
c) Determine the points of the line for 1998 & 2004. Connect the 2 points to arrive at
the line.

Problem 3.
Problem 2: Sofitel Hotels forecasts monthly labor needs. Given the following
monthly labor figures.
Requirements: (30 marks), 5 marks @.
a) Make a forecast for June using a 3 –period moving average and a 5-period
moving average.

Month Actual Value 3Period 5-Period Naïve Weighted Exponential


Moving Moving Method Moving smoothing
average Average averages α=.0.2
Wts:
0.5,0.3,0.
2
January 32
February 41
March 38
April 39
May 43
June

b) What would be the forecast for June using Naïve Method?


c) If the actual labor figure for June turns out to be 45, what would be the forecast
for July using each of these models? 3 months moving average and 5 months
moving average.
d) Compute for a monthly forecast for April to June using a 3 month weighted
moving average. Use weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2 with heavier weights on the more
recent months.
e) Forecast for July using exponential smoothing: alpha(α) is 0.2 and forecast for
February was 32.
f) Compute for the MAD s for all the methods. recommend for the best result.
g) What is the regressed value for Month JULY?

End

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