Workshop 3
Workshop 3
Workshop: WEEK 3
Questions to be considered:
1
EXPECTED RETURN AND RISK
Any financial decision involves some type of risk.
Recently we are experiencing a volatile stock market
due the uncertainty in the Chinese economy. The stock
market is volatile and the stock price plunged worldwide.
For example, a company borrows money faces interest
rate risk, which may change due to change in monetary
policy.
2
(a) Measuring Expected Return and Risk for a
Single Asset
Table 1.1
Rate of
ABC share R
Year Return i Probability, ( Pi )
price
(%)
2010 5.32
2011 6.54 22.93 0.2
2012 8.45 29.20 0.3
2013 8.56 1.30 0.3
2014 9.53 11.33 0.1
2015 8.66 -9.13 0.1
Total 1.00
Where,
SPt ,i SPt 1,i Ct ,i
Ri Rate of return = 100%;
SP t 1,i
SPt ,i Price of the investment 'i' (e.g., share, bond etc.) at time t.
SPt 1,i Price of the investment 'i' (e.g., share, bond etc.) at time t-1.
Pi Probability of each return (total probability must be 1.00)
Ct ,i Dividend at time t for investment 'i'
(if divident is not given, consider it as zero)
Note: the probability of each return will follow a
probability distribution function (discrete or continuous-
for large number of observations)
3
Return is the financial outcome of an investment and
risk is the uncertainty associated with investment.
In general expected return on an investment can be
calculated as follows:
n
Expected return=E(R)= Ri Pi R1P1 R2P2 R3P3 .... RnPn
i 1
It is clear from the data that the investment return can
range from -9.13 to as high as 29.20. The spread of the
investment return is very high. This means that the
uncertainty of the return will also be high. There are
several measures of dispersion in statistics, such as:
Range, mean absolute deviation and the variance (also
coefficient of variation). Variance or standard deviation
(square root of variance) is the most accepted measure
of risk and calculated using the following formula:
n
Variance= = Ri E (R ) Pi
2 2
i 1
R1 E (R ) P1 R2 E (R ) P2 .. Rn E (R ) Pn
2 2 2
4
The calculation of expected return and the risk, i.e.
variance is given in table 1.2
Table 1.2
Year Rate of
Probability,
Return
Ri E (R )
2
Ri Pi Pi
Ri (%)
( Pi )
2011 22.93 0.2 4.59 16.10
2012 29.20 0.3 8.76 69.72
2013 1.30 0.3 0.39 48.07
2014 11.33 0.1 1.13 0.69
2015 -9.13 0.1 -0.91 53.31
Sum 1.00 E(R)=13.96 2 =187.89
5
Thus if the return to an asset is measured in percentage
terms, the standard deviation will also be measured as a
percent, whilst the variance will be expressed as
squared percent
Example:
Suppose we have the following discrete probability
distribution of returns on three different assets:
government bonds, ordinary shares of company A, and
ordinary shares of company B. Calculate the expected
returns and corresponding standard deviation for these
assets
For Bond:
EBond (R ) 9 (0.1) 8 (0.2) 6 (0.4) 4 (0.3) 6.1%
For Company A:
E A (R ) 2 (0.1) 3(0.2) 8 (0.4) 11(0.3) 6.9%
For Company B:
EB (R ) 3 (0.1) 2 (0.2) 9 (0.4) 13 (0.3) 7.6%
6
Bond 96.1 ( 0.1) (8 6.1) 2 ( 0.2 ) ( 6 6.1) 2 ( 0.4 ) ( 4 6.1) 2 ( 0.3)
2
2. 89 1.7%
CompanyA 26. 9 ( 0.1) ( 3 6. 9 ) 2 ( 0.2 ) (8 6. 9 ) 2 ( 0.4 ) (11 6. 9 ) 2 ( 0.3)
2
16. 49 4.06%
CompanyB 37.6 ( 0.1) ( 2 7.6 ) 2 ( 0.2 ) ( 9 7.6 ) 2 ( 0.4 ) (13 7.6 )2 ( 0.3)
2
27. 04 5.2%
7
The Coefficient of Variation of Returns
CV 100%
The coefficient of variation E ( R ) is a
measure of relative variability used to compare the
levels of risks associated with returns for different
assets.
8
As a more striking example suppose we have
Returns (%)
State of Nature Probability Company C Company D
shares shares
1 1/3 1 20
2 1/3 2 21
3 1/3 3 22
Mean 2 21
Std. Deviation 0.816 0.816
CV 0.408 0.039
9
Clearly if our time series of returns is reasonably long it
is unrealistic to assume that the distribution of returns
has not changed since the period of the first
observation. That is why we do not go far back into the
past when estimating return distribution parameters
from a sample.
1 n
Sample Average(mean ) r Ri
n i 1
n
1
Sample standard deviation of returns sr i
( n 1) i 1
( r r ) 2
10
Example:
Suppose we have observed the following realized
returns.
11
Standard Deviation (s):
(6.1 5.5)2 (6.4 5.5)2 (5.2 5.5)2 ( 4.3 5.5)2 (5 5.5)2 (6.0 5.5)2
sBond
5
0.64 0.8000%
Using same method, we get:
sCompanyA 1.9121%
sCompanyB 1.4805%
Coefficient of variation (CV):
0.8000
CVBond 100% 14.55%
5. 5
1.9121
CVCompanyA 100% 33.54%
5.7
1.4805
CVCompanyB 100% 23.50%
6. 3
s
Please Note that for sample data the CV= 100%
X
NOTE:
These calculations will be easier using scientific
calculator.
12
(All of these calculations can be performed efficiently
using built-in functions on calculators or in Excel)
13
It is generally assumed that investors are risk
averse.
Return
Risk-averse
Risk-indifferent
Risk-lover
Risk
x1 x2
Risk
14
2. Measuring Expected Return and Risk of a
Portfolio of Assets
15
For example, for a 2-asset portfolio (of assets 1 and
2) the (population) standard deviation of the
probability distribution of portfolio returns is given
by
where:
ρ1,2 (‘rho’) is the (population) correlation
coefficient of returns on assets 1 and 2. (The
sample or ‘historical’ correlation coefficient is
normally denoted r 1,2 ).
σ 1 is the standard deviation of returns to asset
1 (analogously for asset 2).
Cov (R 1 ,R 2 )
Population correlation coefficient=1,2
R1 R2
Cov (R 1 ,R 2 )
Sample correlation coefficient=r1,2
sR1 sR2
16
n
Cov (R1,R 2 ) (R1i R1 )(R 2 i R 2 )Pi ; when probability is given
i 1
1 N
Cov (R1,R 2 ) (R1i R1 )(R 2 i R 2 ); for population
N i 1
1 n
Cov (R1,R 2 ) (R1i R1 )(R2i R 2 ); for sample
n 1 i 1
17
If the correlation coefficient is -1, we have perfect
negative correlation (e.g. between two assets’
returns). If the correlation coefficient is 1, we have
perfect positive correlation. If the correlation
coefficient is 0, there is no linear relationship (even
approximate) between the two assets’ returns
(Illustrate as per diagrams below)
18
Example:
R2 R2
R1 R1
Example:
Given the previous sample of realized returns,
suppose that half of the value of an investor’s
portfolio is invested in bonds, a quarter in company
A shares and a quarter in company B shares.
Calculate the mean and standard deviation of this
portfolio. (5.75%, 0.6935%)
19
We have (w bonds=0 .5 , w A=0 . 25 , w B =0 . 25)
Year Rp
Rp
Sample mean of
(5.075 6.575 6.25 6.2 4.875 5.525) 6 5.75%
wBond rBond wA rA wB rB
0.5(5.5) 0.25(5.7) 0.25(6.3) 5.75%
Rp
Sample standard deviation of
(5 .075−5 .75 )2 +(6 .575−5. 75 )2 +. .. .. .+(5 . 525−5 .75 )2
√ 5
¿ 0 .6935 %
20
DIVERSIFICATION AND RISK
21
However it is not easy to find many assets whose
returns are perfectly negatively correlated or simply
negatively correlated. Most pairs of asset returns are
positively correlated with a correlation coefficient
between 0.5 and 0.7.
w
2
Rp 1 R1 w 2 R2 w1 R1 w 2 R2
If the correlation coefficient is equal to 1, various
Rp
combinations of the assets will yield a
between the σ ’s of the two assets (inclusive).
For, 1,2 1
Rp w12 R21 w 22 R2 2 2w1w 2 1,2 R1 R2 w12 R21 w 22 R2 2 2w1w 2 R1 R2
w
2
Rp 1 R1 w 2 R2 w1 R1 w 2 R2
less risky Rp most risky
If the correlation coefficient is equal to 0, various
Rp
combinations of the assets will yield a
between the σ ’s of the two assets (inclusive).
22
For, 1,2 0
Rp w12 R21 w 22 R2 2 2w1w 2 R1 R2 0
Example:
Year Bonds Shares return (%)
return (%)
Weight 60 %( w 0.6 ) 40 %( w 0.4 Portfolio
1 2
)
2007 6.10 3.90 5.22
2008 6.40 6.50 6.44
2009 5.20 7.40 6.08
2010 4.30 8.20 5.86
2011 5.00 6.00 5.40
23
2012 6.00 5.80 5.92
Expected return 5.50 6.30 5.82
Variance 0.64 2.19 0.96
Standard deviation 0.80 1.48 0.98
Correlation coefficient (r) 0.67
Textbook Diagram:
Total Portfolio
σ
Risk r p
σ2 Diversifiable risk
27
Corporate Financial Management
1. An individual is to receive $400 a year at the end of each year for the next ten years.
If the rate of interest is 8% p.a. compounded annually, what is the present value of this
annuity?
2. An individual has a water bill for $200 due to be paid today. The water company
charges interest at a rate of 15.6% per annum compounded weekly on overdue
amounts. Although the individual is unable to pay the complete bill today, he accepts
to pay his debt to the water company by making 4 equal weekly payments, with the
first payment to be made today. What should each weekly payment be (assuming
there are 52 weeks in a year)
3. A debt is being paid off with equal payments of $2,000 at the end of each quarter for
two years. If interest on the debt is charged at 8% per annum compounded quarterly,
calculate the principal outstanding (amount owing) when the fourth payment has just
been made.
4. A printing firm borrows $50,000 to purchase a new poster printing machine. Under
the loan agreement, the firm will make 12 equal monthly repayments with the first
repayment made 6 months after the loan amount is transferred to the firm’s bank
account. If the rate of interest charged on the loan is 12% per annum compounded
monthly, what amount will be each of the 12 monthly repayments?
5. A firm borrows $500,000 from a bank. Interest is charged on the loan at a rate of
12% per annum compounded quarterly.
(a) Suppose the firm agrees to pay back the loan by making 40 quarterly
payments over 10 years. Calculate the required quarterly payment if the
first payment is made one quarter after the loan amount is received by the
firm?
(b) Suppose instead that the firm agrees to pay back the loan by making 40
equal quarterly payments with the first payment made one year after the
loan amount is received by the firm. Calculate the quarterly payment in this
case.
28
7. In order to replace a large freezer system in the future, an abattoir plans to deposit 8
equal amounts into a fund at yearly intervals, with the first deposit made immediately,
so that the amount in the fund will be $50,000 in 8 years’ time.
(a) Assuming the fund earns 7% per annum compounded annually, calculate the
annual deposit amount.
(b) Suppose now that although the fund initially earns 7% per annum
compounded annually, after 3 years, i.e. just after the fourth deposit is made,
the interest rate unexpectedly falls to 6% per annum compounded annually. If
the firm changes its annual deposit to take account of the lower interest rate,
what will be the new annual deposit amount for the last 4 deposits?
(Students are strongly advised to draw a timeline when answering this
question, tutor will not be discussing this problem during the tutorial if
time is not available. This question will not be in the final examination)
8. Discussion question: (tutor will not be discussing this problem during the tutorial
this question will not be in the final examination):
A $50,000 loan is to be repaid by 8 quarterly repayments, with the first repayment
made one quarter after the loan amount is received by the borrower. The interest rate
is initially 12% p.a. compounded quarterly. After 12 months, however, the interest
rate unexpectedly decreases to 10% p.a. compounded quarterly. What will be the
quarterly repayments for the second year (i.e. the last 4 quarters), given that the term
of the loan remains unchanged?
29
MAIN POINTS
The expected or mean return to an asset is the weighted average of the
possible returns, where the weights are the probabilities of the
particular returns occurring.
A sample mean return to an asset is an estimate of the expected return.
Risk associated with the return to an asset is measured by the variance
or standard deviation of returns.
The ‘population’ standard deviation of returns can be calculated if the
probability distribution of returns is known, whilst the sample standard
deviation of returns is based on a sample of past returns.
The coefficient of variation of returns allows comparison of the relative
variability of returns to assets with different expected (or sample mean)
returns.
Investors are normally risk averse.
The return on a portfolio is the weighted sum of component asset
returns, with each weight given by the proportion of the portfolio’s value
accounted for by the particular asset.
The correlation coefficient between the returns to two assets represents
the degree of linear relationship between the assets’ returns.
Systematic risk represents variability of returns due to factors that
affect all risky assets.
Non-systematic risk represents variability of returns due to factors that
are unrelated to factors affecting all risky assets.
Portfolio diversification can in theory reduce a portfolio’s non-
systematic risk to zero and its systematic risk to that associated with
the market portfolio.
30