BALAKOT – AN OSINT ANALYSIS

By Sqn Ldr Sameer Joshi (Retd)

 JeM CAMP: JABBA TOP, BALAKOT, PAKISTAN

BALAKOT
PAKISTAN

JeM CAMP,
JABBA TOP

POK
IAF TARGETS: JABBA TOP, BALAKOT - 26 FEB 19

TARGET – 1
MUJAHID HOSTEL

NOT A TARGET
SEMINARY

TARGET – 3
TRAINER’s ACCO

TARGET – 2
YOUNG TRAINEE HOSTEL
Image - DigitalGlobe
 POST STRIKE OSINT DAMAGE ASSESMENT

TARGET – 2
YOUNG TRAINEE HOSTEL
Patch Repair Smudge Clearly visible
Enlarged View
Enlarged View

TARGET – 3
TRAINER’s ACCO
Elaborate Patch Repair Visible

Image - DigitalGlobe
 POST STRIKE OSINT DAMAGE ASSESMENT

TARGET – 1
MUJAHID HOSTEL
3 x Entry Marks visible

Image - DigitalGlobe
PAK ARMY ISPR DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN KICKS IN
 PAK ARMY ISPR DECEPTION No. 1
FAKE EXPLOSIONS OUTSIDE THE CAMP TO INDICATE MISS
 ACTUAL TARGET

JeM CAMP, JABBA TOP

1 FAKE

2 FAKE

CONTROLLED EXPLOSIONS OUTSIDE

FAKE 3 THE CAMP
TO INDICATE MISS BY IAF BOMBS
 3 x FAKE EXPLOSIONS OUTSIDE THE CAMP TO INDICATE MISS
CRATER OF A HIGH EXPLOSIVE EXPLOSION PAK ARMY USED HIGH EXPLOSIVE
MUNITION TO CARRY OUT
CONTROLLED EXPLOSIONS
“IAF USED PENETRATOR VERSION, NOT HIGH
EXPLOSIVE VERSION OF Spice2000 BOMBS TO
AVOID COLLATERAL DAMAGE ”

NO DEPTH BALAKOT
CRATER FROM A
PENETRATOR WARHEAD

DEPTH

SYRIA – RUSSIAN AIR FORCE BUNKER

BUSTING PENETRATOR BOMB
 PAK ARMY ISPR DECEPTION No. 2
REPAIR THE DAMAGE & COVER THE ENTRY HOLES
TARGET – 1
MUJAHID HOSTEL
NO Entry Marks visible

POST STRIKE ROOF REPAIRED

27 FEB 19 8 MARCH 19
Image - DigitalGlobe Image – Sentinal Multiband
 WHY NO BUILDING COLLAPSE?
Spice 2000 penetrator version is a Low Net Explosive Qty (NEQ) Bomb
 WHY NO BUILDING COLLAPSE?
Spice Low Net Explosive Qty (NEQ) warhead kills by overpressure and incendiary
effects in confined space without possible collapse of a structure

ISRAELI SPICE
BOMB ATTACK ON
IRANIAN FACILITY
IN SYRIA

Damage by
pressure wave,
shrapnel and
fire effects

Structure Intact
 PAK ARMY ISPR DECEPTION No. 3
ENGAGE FOREIGN MEDIA TO RATIFY BOMB MISS
 WHY THE FOREIGN MEDIA IS WRONG!
o NO KNOWLEDGE OF IAF’s DESIGNATED MEAN POINT OF IMPACT (DMPI)s

o ALL ASSUMED THAT THE TARGET WAS THE ‘BIG WHITE BUILDING’ SEMINARY
MOSQUE, WHICH WAS NOT TARGETED AT ALL

o LOOKING FOR TELL TALE EVIDENCE OF A LARGE EXPLOSION - NO KNOWLEDGE OF

Spice2000 PENETRATOR VERSION, WHICH DID NOT COLLAPSE A BUILDING

o ASSUMED IAF WOULD HAVE USED THE STANDARD SRTM DIGITAL ELEVATION MAP
(DEM) DATA WHICH HAS ERRORS, POSSIBLE LEADING TO THE BOMB MISS

o FIXATED ON FAKE EXPLOSIONS CARRIED OUT BY THE PAK ARMY, IN LINE WITH THE
ISPR NARRATIVE

o NOT ALL NECESSARILIY HAD THE RIGHT RESOLUTION (PLANET LABS SATELLITE) TO PICK
UP THE ENTRY HOLES IN THE ROOFS (50cm AND BELOW)

o THE FOREIGN MEDIA ASSESMENT GIVES INCORRECT LAUNCH DIRECTIONS

 PAK ARMY ISPR DECEPTION No. 4
43 DAYS POST STRIKE, DG ISPR TAKES INDEPENDENT
OBSERVERS TO JABBA TOP TO SHOW FAKE BOMB
EXPLOSIONS OUTSIDE THE CAMP AND NO DAMAGE AT
THE SEMINARY
 43 DAYS LATER, DG ISPR TOOK THE OBSERVERS TO
THE SEMINARY – WHICH WAS NEVER TARGETED

TARGETED BUILDINGS
NOT SHOWN

TOOK 43 DAYS TO REPAIR

DAMAGE & SANTIZE THE CAMP
PAKISTAN AIR FORCE RIPOSTE
‘OPERATION SWIFT RETORT’
27 FEBRUARY 2019
 OPERATION SWIFT RETORT
1 . DEMONSTRATE ‘PERCEPTIBLE TACTICAL BRILLIANCE’ OF THE PAF IN A
BOLD OPERATION — RESTORING THE MEASURE OF HONOUR LOST DUE TO
THE INDIAN STRIKES A DAY PRIOR IN PUBLIC PERCEPTION

2 . SEIZE THE MILITARY INITIATIVE BACK FROM THE IAF — NOT LETTING INDIA
EXPLOIT THE NEW NORMAL

3 . HIGHLIGHT — THAT THE FORCES ARE IN BALANCE AND THE LIBERTY OF
ATTACKING AT WILL WITHOUT REPERCUSSIONS FOR INDIA IS NOT AN OPTION

4 . AIM FOR A QUICK OUTCOME WITHIN AN ESTABLISHED TIME FRAME —

 AVOIDING ESCALATION BEYOND THE PERCEIVED COMBAT THRESHOLD OF AN
ALL-OUT WAR

5.  PRESERVE — ITS FORCE LEVELS AT ALL COSTS

 OPERATION SWIFT RETORT
PHASE – 1 : FIGHTER SWEEPS
8 x JF-17 Vs 2 x Mirage 2000
8 x PAF F-16s VS 2 x IAF Su-30MKIs

SU-30MKI
RAJOURI

AMRAAM Firings by PAF

F-16s
OPERATION SWIFT RETORT

PHASE – 2: STRIKE
 OPERATION SWIFT RETORT

PHASE – 3: BARRIER CAP

Wg Cdr Abhinandan
IAF RADAR PICTURE SHOWS ONE PAF AIRCRAFT
BLIP VANISHING
TWO DIFFERENT AIRCRAFT CRASHES VISUALLY SEEN
FROM INDIAN ARMY POSTS ACROSS LoC

IA POSTS
DG ISPR GIVES BIRTH TO THE LEGEND
OF THE ‘DOOSRA BANDA’

ON A RARE
OCCASSION, THE DG
ISPR
SPEAKS THE TRUTH,
REVEALS THE
PRESENCE OF A
SECOND PILOT.
IMRAN KHAN
CONFIRMS SAME
 DG ISPR FLIP-FLOPS ON 27 FEB 2019

1. THERE WAS AN INDIAN PILOT IN PAK ARMY’S CUSTODY, TWO AT LARGE

2. A SECOND PILOT CAPTURED, TAKEN TO THE PAK ARMY COMBINED

MILITARY HOSPITAL (CMH)

3. THE SECOND PILOT IN THE CMH DIED

4. IN EVENING, IT WAS CONFIRMED THAT ABHINANDAN WAS NOW, THE

ONLY INDIAN PILOT IN PAK CUSTODY

5. NO F-16 OF THE PAKISTAN AIR FORCE WAS USED IN THE AERIAL CLASH
THAT DAY, SO NO QUESTION OF ANY BEING SHOT DOWN BY THE IAF.

“DOOSRA BANDA HAMARE

KABZE MEIN HAI, USKO
PAKAD LIYA HAI”
THE DG ISPR UNKNOWINGLY CONFIRMED THAT THE PAF HAD ALSO
LOST AN AIRCRAT IN PoK THAT DAY, SINCE IAF HAD ONLY LOST ABHINANDAN

IAF HAD THE FOLLOWING AS PROOF END OF THE DAY ON 27 FEB 19 TO

CLAIM A PAF AIRCRAFT –

• A PAF RADAR BLIP VANISHING FROM SCOPE

• VISUAL SIGHTINGS BY INDIAN ARMY OF 2 DIFFERENT CRASHES AT 2

DIFFERENT LOCATIONS

• R/T INTERCEPT OF PAF UNITS HAVING CAPTURED 2 DIFFERENT

PILOTS

• R/T INTERCEPT OF A SEARCH & RESCUE HELICOPTER IN THE AREA

WHERE ONE OF THE SIGHTING OF CRASH WAS MADE

• IAF HAD ONLY LOST ONE AIRCRAFT WITH ONE PILOT

 WHERE IS THE GUN CAMERA EVIDENCE
THAT
A PAF JET WAS SHOT DOWN?

YES – THERE IS VIDEO EVIDENCE OF

A PAF JET WENT DOWN ON 27 FEB 19

THREE CRUCIAL VIDEOS OVER PoK CAPTURE AND REVEAL

THAT THE LEGEND OF THE ‘DOOSRA BANDA’ IS TRUE.
TWO DIFFERENT AIRCRAFT HAVE CRASHED IN
GEOGRAPHICALLY APART LOCATIONS
IAF MiG – 21 CRASH IN PoK NEAR HORAN KOTLA
PAF AIRCRAFT CRASH IN PoK NEAR NEAR KOTLI
(Viewed From Khuiratta)
DISTINCT TWO DIFFERENT CRASHES WITH PARACHUTES SEEN

IAF AIRCRAFT PAF AIRCRAFT

EJECTION LOCATIONS MATCH WITH INDIAN ARMY VISUAL SIGHTINGS

PAF jet

Indian Army Posts

MiG-21
FINAL CRASH OF THE PAF JET SEEN FROM J&K
FINAL CRASH OF THE PAF JET SEEN FROM J&K
FINAL CRASH OF THE PAF JET SEEN INSIDE PoK
FINAL CRASH OF THE PAF JET SEEN INSIDE PoK
THE FINAL CRASH AS SEEN FROM FROM INDIA & PoK
VIDEO EVIDENCE SHOWS TWO DIFFERENT AIRCRAFT
CRASHING IN PoK
AT TWO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS

IF IAF LOST ONE AIRCRAFT,

WHO LOST THE OTHER?
 ‘OPERATION SWIFT RETORT’
GAINS & LOSSES
• A VASTLY SUPERIOR FORCE OF 22 F-16s and JF-17s WAS CHECKMATED BY A
SMALLER IAF COMPONENT OF 8 SU-30MKI, Mirage 2000 and MiG-21s

• THE PAF FIRED 6 MISSILES AGAINST INDIAN AIRCRAFT, ONLY ONE HIT
(ABHINANDAN). IAF SU-30MKIs DISPLAYED SUPERB TACTICAL MANEUVERING TO
DEFEAT AMRAAM MISSILES

• IAF SU-30MKIs BREACHED SAFETY BARRIERS IN AN ATTEMPT TO LAUNCH AAMs

AGAINST PAF F-16s

• PAF HAVE CLAIMED TO HAVE SHOT DOWN AN IAF SU-30MKI

• PAF STRIKE LAUNCHED 11 STAND OFF WEAPONS. THE WEAPONS MISSED BY A

MARGIN OF 100m ERROR to 1500m ERROR

• PAF COUND NOT STOP COUNTERATTACK BY IAF MiG-21s ACROSS the LOC

• WG CDR ABHINANDAN FIRED A R-73 AAM AT A PAF JET

 ‘OPERATION SWIFT RETORT’
GAINS & LOSSES (Cont..)

• THERE ARE CLEAR CRASH VIDEOS OF TWO AIRCRAFT IN PoK ON 27 FEB 19

• IAF LOST ONE MiG-21 to an AMRAAM FIRED BY THE PAF

• PAF LOST ONE JET OVER PoK

• IAF CONFIRMED THE LOSS OF THE PAF JET AS A F-16 THROUGH ELECTRONIC
SIGNATURES

• THE KILL HAS BEEN AWARDED TO WG CDR ABHINANDAN SINCE HE WAS THE
ONLY IAF AIRCRAFT NEAR THE VICNITY OF THE PAF JET LOST