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2 Climatic Change and Variability

Climatic Change and Variability

LINDA O. MEARNS
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric
Research*, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA

2.1 Introduction
With the acceptance of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 1997, possible
climatic change due to anthropogenic pollution of the atmosphere in the
21st century became a higher profile global issue than ever before. Fears,
uncertainties and confusion regarding necessary adjustments in environmental
and economic policy in order to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols have intensified. These fears and uncertainties have complicated
scientific discussion on the effect of increased greenhouse gases on the climate
and on how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a globally effective and
equitable way. Moreover, the political posturing and strategizing of special
interest groups in both developed and developing countries has sometimes led
to the obfuscation of the issue. Hence, misinformation about the science of
climatic change is often presented. Also, the media has a tendency to produce
so-called ‘balanced’ news reports using representatives of two different sides
of a question, with the comparative scientific merits of each side’s arguments
being largely unknown. This leads to much confusion for those interested and
engaged in research into global climatic change.
These confusions and debates are particularly compelling in the arena of
global climatic change and its relation to agriculture, because agricultural
activities relate to and interact with so many different aspects of the climatic
change issue (Rosenzweig and Hillel, 1998). Agricultural activities contribute
significantly to the production of greenhouse gases, such as methane (CH4)
and nitrous oxide (N2O) (see Chapter 3, this volume). In fact, agricultural
activities account for 20% of the current increase in radiative forcing of the

*
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science
Foundation.
CAB International 2000. Climate Change and Global Crop Productivity
(eds K.R. Reddy and H.F. Hodges) 7

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8 L.O. Mearns

climate system (Rosenberg et al., 1998). Agricultural enterprise is a human-

managed system with a fundamental biophysical base, and this complexity
makes the task of discerning effects of climatic change difficult.
As a biophysical system dependent on climatic resources, agriculture
can be affected through changes in crop yields and production. The positive
fertilization effect of increased CO2 on agricultural crops could have a
beneficial effect on some crops, particularly the C3 species (see Chapter 4, this
volume). Since application of technology (e.g. new cultivars and pesticides,
irrigation, and herbicide application) is such an important factor in agriculture,
there is much discussion and debate about how successfully agriculture
(regionally and globally) can adapt to whatever climatic changes may occur
(Easterling, 1996; Reilly, 1996; Rosenzweig and Hillel, 1998).
This chapter reviews the science regarding climatic change induced by
greenhouse gases. The fundamental physical climatic processes of such
change, the current trends in the climate record, the climate-modelling
tools used to study climatic change and results of relevant climate modelling
experiments are reviewed. The most up-to-date information on what is now
known and understood about climatic change is provided. Several of the more
controversial issues in the climatic change debate are also discussed. The
chapter begins with a brief review of past climatic changes to put the present
climate in a broad perspective.

2.2 Past Climate Change

2.2.1 Distant past – millions to thousands of years before present (BP)

Climatic change occurs on diverse scales of time and space. The largest
changes have occurred on the same time scale as that of drifting continents.
However, large variations, such as interglacial periods that have marked the
climate record during the past 3 million years or so, occurred in cycles that
lasted tens to hundreds of thousands of years (Fig. 2.1a) (Schneider et al.,
1990). Thus, climatic change is the normal state of affairs for the earth/
atmosphere system. This suggests that the notion of a stable, stationary climate
is an erroneous concept, while that of ‘unceasing climatic change’ may be a
more useful mental model by which to analyse the earth’s climate resources
through time.
Climates of the past billion years have been about 13°C warmer to 5°C
cooler than the current climate (Schneider et al., 1990). Prominent in earth’s
recent history have been the 100,000-year Pleistocene glacial/interglacial
cycles when climate was cooler than at present (Fig. 2.1a). Global temperature
varied by about 5°C through the ice age cycles. Some local temperature
changes through these cycles were as great as 10–15°C in high latitude regions.
During the last major glaciation, ice sheets covered much of North America
and northern Europe, and sea level averaged 120 m below current values.
Since the last glaciation, there have been relatively small changes of prob-
ably less than 2°C (compared with the current global mean temperature) in

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Climatic Change and Variability 9

Fig. 2.1. Schematic diagrams of global temperature variations since the Pleistocene
on three time-scales: (a) the last million years; (b) the last 10,000 years; and (c) the
last 1000 years. The dotted line nominally represents conditions near the beginning
of the 20th century. Each unit on the x-axis of all three panels represents 1°C.
(Source: Folland et al., 1990. Reprinted with permission of Hadley Centre for Climate
Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, UK.)

global average temperatures. During the mid-Holocene epoch between 4000

and 6000 years BP, however, temperatures rose significantly, particularly dur-
ing the summer in the northern hemisphere (Fig. 2.1b) (Folland et al., 1990).

2.2.2 Recent past – medieval optimum and the Little Ice Age

Fluctuations in the distant past are important for analysing the various causes
of climatic fluctuations, but substantial fluctuations within recent human
history (Fig. 2.1c) are more compelling for humans. For example, the so-called

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medieval optimum occurred from about the 10th to early 12th centuries. There
is evidence that western Europe, Iceland and Greenland were exceptionally
warm, with mean summer temperatures that were more than 1°C higher than
current ones. In western and central Europe, vineyards extended as much as
5 degrees latitude farther north than today (Gribbin and Lamb, 1978). Not all
regions experienced greater warmth; China, for example, was considerably
colder in winter.
The most notable fluctuation in historical times was that known as the
Little Ice Age, which lasted roughly from 1450 to the mid-19th century. earth’s
average temperature at one point was 1°C less than that of today (Fig. 2.1c)
(Lamb, 1982). The effects of the Little Ice Age on everyday life are well
documented: the freezing over of the river Thames in London; the freezing of
New York harbour, which allowed citizens of New York to walk to Staten
Island; abandonment of settlements in Iceland and Greenland; and crop
failures in Scotland (Parry, 1978).
While there has been wide speculation on the cause or causes of the Little
Ice Age (e.g. increased volcanism, reduced solar activity), there is no definitive
explanation. This fluctuation is significant because it ended before the heavy
industrialization of the late 19th century began, and is thus believed to be
largely free of human causes. Some have argued that the increased global
temperature that has been observed in the 20th century represents a ‘recovery’
from the Little Ice Age. However, without a definitive cause for the coolness of
the Little Ice Age, the concept of a recovery from that anomalous cold period
remains dubious.

2.3 20th Century Climate

Considerable effort has been expended to analyse the current historical climate
record over the past 150 years in order to establish whether there are any
trends that could be attributed to greenhouse gas warming. For example, a
number of global data sets of near-surface temperature have been developed
and analysed (Nicholls et al., 1996). These data sets have been carefully
corrected for errors or bias due to urban heat-island effects, non-
homogeneities (such as instrument or location change) and changes in bucket
types used to measure sea surface temperatures. One of the most carefully
constructed data sets (Jones et al., 1994, 1999) indicates there has been a 0.3°C
to 0.6°C warming of the earth’s surface since the late 19th century (Fig. 2.2).
This trend continued through 1998. The global average temperature from
January to December 1998, was the warmest on record for the period
1880–1998 (National Climate Data Center web site, www.ncdc.noaa.gov).
Specifically, the global average temperature for January until June 1998, was
0.6°C higher than the 1961–1990 global mean temperature. However, the
distinct warming has not been regionally homogeneous, since some regions
have experienced cooling during the 20th century.
The diurnal temperature range has primarily decreased in most regions,
indicating that minimum temperatures have warmed more than maximum

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Climatic Change and Variability 11

Fig. 2.2. Estimated changes in annual global-mean temperatures (thin line) and
carbon dioxide (thick line) over the past 138 years relative to the 1961–1990 average
(horizontal solid line). Earlier values for carbon dioxide are from ice cores (dashed
line), and for 1959–1996 from direct measurements made at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
The scale for carbon dioxide is in parts per million (ppmv) relative to a mean of
333.7 ppmv. (Source: Hurrell, 1998.)

temperatures, or that cloudiness has increased in these areas (Karl et al., 1993,
1996). A cooling of the lower stratosphere by 0.6°C has also occurred since
1979.
Sea level has increased on average between 10 and 25 cm over the past
100 years (Nicholls et al., 1996). This rise is related to the increase in near-
surface temperatures, which has caused thermal expansion of the oceans
and melting of glaciers and ice caps. Thermal expansion of the oceans has
contributed between 2 and 7 cm to the total increase in sea level.
There has also been a small increase in global average precipitation over
land during the 20th century (Dai et al., 1997). Recent investigations indicate
that this mean increase has mainly influenced heavy precipitation rates
(Groisman et al., 1999). Since the late 1970s, there have been increases in the
percentage of the globe experiencing extreme drought or severe moisture
surplus (Dai et al., 1998).
Many of the global climatic changes are analysed from the point of view of
expected combinations of changes to different variables known as fingerprints.
For example, the combination of cooling of the stratosphere, warming of
the surface temperature and increased global mean precipitation is expected
from increased greenhouse gas-induced climate change. These anticipated
combinations of changes and their spatial patterns are based on our under-
standing of the physics of the earth/ocean/atmosphere system and results from
climate models (Santer et al., 1996). Fingerprinting will be discussed further in
section 2.6.4 on climate models.
In the 1990s, remotely sensed temperature data of the lower troposphere
(700 millibar [mbar] height, about 2.5 km) have been analysed to compare

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12 L.O. Mearns

trends with those from surface observation stations. This has led to a debate
regarding the robustness of results from surface observations compared with
remotely sensed data (Christy and Spencer, 1995; Hurrell and Trenberth, 1997,
1998). For example, Christy and Spencer used data from the microwave sound-
ing units (MSU) on board the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) polar orbiting satellites and investigated the time series from 1979 to
1995. They found a slight global cooling of –0.04°C over this time period.
According to surface observations, the temperature has increased since 1979
by 0.14°C. This putative discrepancy has been used to question the surface
temperature record and to provide evidence that global warming is not
occurring.
The intense political debates concerning global warming tend to polarize
results from scientific research on the subject and result in oversimplification of
the methods/techniques and research results. In fact, the differences in these
global mean trends can largely be explained based on the differences in the
physical quantities being measured (Hurrell, 1998). The MSU measures lower
tropospheric temperatures at an altitude of about 2.5 km, whereas the surface
measurements are made on land at a screen height of about 2 m. Differences
in the thermal characteristics of land and ocean affect the relative correlations
of temperature with altitude. Over the ocean, the sea surface temperatures will
not necessarily be highly correlated with temperatures at 700 mbar heights.
These and other issues, such as the myriad technical difficulties associated
with using remotely sensed data to establish trends (Hurrell, 1998; Hurrell and
Trenberth, 1998; Kerr, 1998), suggest that the intense debate is more political
than scientific.

2.4 Role of Greenhouse Gases

2.4.1 The greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect is a natural feature of the climate system. In fact,

without the atmosphere (and hence the greenhouse effect), the earth’s average
temperature would be approximately 33°C colder than it is currently. The
earth/atmosphere system balances absorption of solar radiation with emission
of longwave (infrared) radiation to space. The earth’s surface primarily absorbs
most of the shortwave solar radiation from the sun, but it also reradiates some
of this radiation as longwave radiation (Fig. 2.3). Energy is lost before reaching
the surface of the earth through reflection from clouds and aerosols in the
atmosphere. Little is directly absorbed by the atmosphere, which is relatively
transparent to shortwave radiation. Also, an average of about 30% is reflected
off the earth’s surface.
The atmosphere is more efficient at absorbing longwave radiation, which
is then both emitted upward toward space and downward toward the earth.
This downward emission serves to heat the earth further. This further warming
by reradiated longwave radiation from the atmosphere is known as the
greenhouse effect. The amount of longwave radiation that is absorbed and

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Climatic Change and Variability 13

Fig. 2.3. The earth’s radiation and energy balance. The net incoming radiation of 342 W m−2
is partially reflected by clouds and the atmosphere, or at the surface. Some of the heat
absorbed at the earth’s surface is returned to the atmosphere as sensible and latent heat. The
remainder is radiated as thermal infrared radiation and most of that is absorbed by the
atmosphere, which in turn emits radiation both up and down; this produces the greenhouse
effect. (Source: Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997.)

then reradiated downward is a function of the constituents of the atmosphere.

Certain gases in the atmosphere are particularly good at absorbing longwave
radiation and are known as the greenhouse gases. These include water
vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), some chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (see Chapter 3, this volume).
If the make-up of the atmosphere changes and the result is an increase in
concentrations of the greenhouse gases, then more of the infrared radiation
from earth will be absorbed by the atmosphere and then reradiated back to
earth. This changes the radiative forcing of the climate system and results in
increased temperature of the earth’s surface. Such perturbations in the
radiation balance of the earth system are known as changes in the radiative
forcing, and the factors that affect this balance are known as radiative forcing
agents (Shine et al., 1990). One of the ways in which the effect of greenhouse
gases is measured is by determining their radiative forcing. This can be viewed
as a measure of their relative ability to alter the climate.

2.4.2 Current concentrations of greenhouse gases

This section discusses the major greenhouse gases and their relative contrib-
ution to the current radiative forcing of the atmosphere (Fig. 2.4), compared

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Fig. 2.4. Estimates of global and annual average radiative forcing (W m−2)
attributable to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the solar flux from
1850–1990. The height of a rectangular bar indicates either the best or mid-range
estimate of the forcing; the vertical lines in the bars represent the uncertainty range.
(Source: Schimel et al., 1996.)

with pre-industrial times (1850). Because of human activities, atmospheric

concentrations of greenhouse gases (except water vapour) have increased
considerably since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Sources of these
gases include fossil fuel burning, tropical deforestation, biomass burning,
chemical industrial activities, and agricultural activities.
Carbon dioxide is the must abundant of the greenhouse gases. Concen-
trations of CO2 [CO2] have increased from about 280 parts per million by
volume (ppmv) in the pre-industrial period to 358 ppmv in 1995, with a rate of
increase of 1.6 ppmv per year (Fig. 2.2). The concentration by mid-1998 was
368 ppmv. Major sources of CO2 emissions include burning of fossil fuels and
production of cement. Tropical deforestation contributes to [CO2] increase by
removing vegetation, which is one of the major sinks of CO2 (Weubbles and
Rosenberg, 1998).
On a per molecule basis, methane is a more effective greenhouse gas
than CO2. The current globally averaged concentration is 1.72 ppmv and
is increasing at the rate of 1% per year. For reasons that are not com-
pletely understood, the rate of increase in methane concentration decreased
in the early 1990s, but has returned to a higher level of increase in the past

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Climatic Change and Variability 15

few years. Methane is produced in rice culture, ruminant fermentation,

landfills, and through losses during gas production and distribution and coal
mining.
Nitrous oxide is even more efficient than methane in absorbing longwave
radiation. Its mean concentration in 1990 was about 311 parts per billion by
volume (ppbv) and has been increasing by about 0.2–0.3% per year. Its
pre-industrial level was about 275 ppbv. Sources of the increase include
fertilized soils that are used for crop production, biomass burning, industrial
processes and feed lots. Hence, this is the greenhouse gas, along with
methane, that is most strongly associated with agricultural activities (Schimel
et al., 1996; see also Chapter 3, this volume).
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are inordinately efficient greenhouse gases
with a relatively long lifetime of about 100 years. Used primarily as propellants
and refrigerants, they are perhaps better known for their role in the destruction
of ozone in the stratosphere rather than as greenhouse gases. The CFCs 11
and 12 currently have the largest concentrations in the atmosphere (0.27
and 0.50 ppbv, respectively). Their concentrations have increased, but at a
diminishing rate in the later 1990s. However, these and other CFCs accounted
for 15% of the increase in radiative forcing since 1900 and contributed nearly
25% of the increased forcing in the 1980s (Houghton et al., 1990). The
continued phasing out of CFCs, as per the Montreal Protocol, indicates that
these will become less significant greenhouse gases over time. They are being
replaced by halogenated hydrocarbons (HCFCs), which, although still having
some capacity as greenhouse gases, have less capacity than the CFCs they are
replacing. Whether or not these changes are significant in the future depends
on how large their emissions become.
The depletion of stratospheric ozone has been a problem because it has
allowed increased ultraviolet radiation to reach the earth’s surface. However,
the increase in tropospheric ozone is also problematic, since tropospheric
ozone acts as a greenhouse gas and is also a pollutant that affects humans,
plants and animals. Tropospheric ozone contributed more than N2O to the
positive forcing of the climate system during the 20th century.
The relative contribution of these different gases to the change in radiative
forcing from pre-industrial times to the present, as well as that of some other
external forcing agents, such as variations in solar activity, is presented in
Fig. 2.4. Clearly, the largest contributor to the positive forcing has been the
increase in greenhouse gases. In order of importance, they are CO2, CH4, the
halocarbons and N2O (see Chapters 12 and 18, this volume).

2.4.3 Feedback to natural greenhouse gases (water vapour)

The most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is water vapour, but
humans are not directly increasing its amount. However, it is anticipated that
atmospheric increases in other greenhouse gases will lead to global warming,
which will in turn lead to increased water vapour in the atmosphere because
of increased evaporative capacity. Therefore, increase in water vapour is

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viewed as a feedback from the increases in the anthropogenically produced

greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O and CFCs, rather than as an anthropo-
genically generated greenhouse gas.

2.4.4 Future increases in greenhouse gases

There is no doubt that there have been significant and even alarming increases
in greenhouse gas concentrations. How they may change in the future is
highly uncertain, and this is one of the most difficult problems in studying
possible future climatic change, because changes in these gases greatly
depend upon changes in the future economic and political activities of all
nations. This is particularly true of those countries or regions, such as the USA,
western Europe and China, that are or will be largely responsible for most of
the future emissions of these gases. Predicting economic and environmental
policy development on a global scale is a most daunting task.
Numerous scenarios of possible future increases of greenhouse gases have
been constructed. They are based on different assumptions of future human
activities, such as economic growth, technological advances, and human
responses to environmental or socioeconomic constraints (Jager, 1988;
Houghton et al., 1990, 1992, 1996; German Bundestag Enquête Commission,
1991). Thus, it should be understood that these scenarios of future greenhouse
gas emissions are highly uncertain and become more so as the length of time
of the projection increases.
Four scenarios were developed for the first Report of the Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Houghton et al., 1990). These
scenarios assumed identical population increases and economic development
scenarios, but different technological development and environmental
controls. Individual scenarios using changes in concentrations of CO2, CH4,
N2O and CFCs were developed. The scenarios varied from Business as Usual
(BAU) with very little environmental control to scenario C with high levels of
controls. The rate of increase of greenhouse gases decreased with increasing
environmental control.
The IPCC 1992 Supplement (Houghton et al., 1992) provided a more
detailed set of scenarios that have been frequently used in a number of global
change contexts. Six alternative scenarios (IS92a–f) to the year 2100 were
constructed based on different quantitative assumptions about population
growth, economic growth and energy supplies within different world sectors,
i.e. developing and developed countries (Fig. 2.5a). The IS92a and IS92b
scenarios were more or less updates of the scenarios presented in the 1990
IPCC report (Houghton et al., 1990) and form ‘middle-of-the-road’ projections
(Leggett et al., 1992). The other scenarios assumed rates of change in
emissions of greenhouse gases that encompassed a large total range. For
example, gigatons (109 tons) of carbon (GtC) emitted by 2100 ranged from
4.6 (IS92c) to 35.8 (IS92e) and significantly departed from an actual 1990
value of 7.4 GtC year−1. The IS92a ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenario assumed an
emission of 20.3 GtC year−1 (Fig. 2.5a).

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Climatic Change and Variability 17

Fig. 2.5. (a) Total anthropogenic CO2 emissions under the IS92 emission scenarios; (b) the
resulting atmospheric CO2 concentrations using a carbon cycle model. (Source: Houghton
et al., 1996.)

When given a particular quantity of emissions, the calculation of future

concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is determined by
modelling the processes that transform and remove the relevant gases from the
atmosphere. Future concentrations of CO2, for example, are quantified using
carbon cycle models that simulate exchange of CO2 among atmosphere,
oceans and biosphere. The CO2 concentrations corresponding to the emissions
scenarios listed above range from about 480 ppmv to well over 1000 ppmv,
with about 710 ppmv for IS92a (Fig. 2.5b).

2.5 Anthropogenic Aerosol Effects

2.5.1 Physical processes and current distributions

In recent years the potentially countervailing influence of aerosol forcing to

increased greenhouse gas forcing on the atmosphere has become a new focus
of attention (Wigley, 1989; Houghton et al., 1990). Aerosols are solid or liquid
particles in the size range of 0.001 to 10 µm. Aerosols in the atmosphere
influence the radiation balance of the earth directly, through scattering and
absorption, and indirectly, by altering cloud properties. They affect the size,
number and chemical composition of cloud droplets. When the number of
aerosol particles increases, the number of cloud droplets increases, resulting in
a higher cloud albedo and subsequent greater reflectivity.
Tropospheric aerosols result from combustion of fossil fuels, biomass
burning and other activities and have led to a globally averaged direct negative
radiative forcing (i.e. cooling effect) of about −0.5 W m−2 (Fig. 2.4) (Schimel
et al., 1996). The indirect effect of aerosols is more difficult to quantify. Note,
however, that there is some positive forcing from black soot aerosols that
directly absorb solar radiation (Fig. 2.4). An important difference between
aerosol and greenhouse gas effects is that the former is heterogeneously

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distributed through the atmosphere, and thus has important local or regional
effects. Aerosols are also much more short-lived in the atmosphere; thus, their
concentrations respond relatively quickly to changes in emissions of these sub-
stances. They are predominantly found in the lower 2 km of the atmosphere.
The major concentrations of sulphate aerosols are found over the eastern half
of the USA, Europe and eastern China. These correspond to regions of intense
industrial activity (Houghton et al., 1995).

2.5.2 Future concentrations

Again, it is not easy to predict with any certainty what the level of aerosol
emissions will be in the 21st century. To make any predictions, many
assumptions must be made about future activity of regional economies and
the availability and attractiveness of alternatives to burning fossil fuels, etc.
The IPCC 1992 scenarios (Houghton et al., 1992) included emission levels of
aerosols for the future that were based on a number of economic, political and
resource availability assumptions, as discussed above.
There has been recent new thinking on future levels of aerosol emissions.
Now it is anticipated that aerosol emissions worldwide will continue to
increase into the early part of the 21st century, but there will be regional shifts
in the emissions. The largest current emissions are centred over the USA and
Europe, but this distribution will shift because of larger emissions from China.
However, by the middle of the 21st century it is widely assumed that aerosol
emissions will decrease. Given the short lifetime of aerosols in the atmosphere,
they may be much less significant in a longer time frame of climate change
than was thought 5 years ago (S. Smith, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, 1998, personal communication). More details on new emissions
scenarios are provided in section 2.7.

2.6 Future Climate Change

2.6.1 Description of climate models – general circulation models (GCMs)

Much of our knowledge of future climate change comes from climate model
experiments. Climate models are complex three-dimensional mathematical
representations of the processes responsible for climate. These processes
include complex interactions among atmosphere, land surface, oceans and
sea ice. Climate models simulate the global distributions of variables such
as temperature, wind, cloudiness and rainfall. Major climate processes
represented in most state-of-the-art climate models are shown in Fig. 2.6. The
equations describing the behaviour of the atmosphere are solved on a
three-dimensional grid representing the surface of the earth and the vertical
height of the atmosphere. The spatial resolution at which a model is config-
ured is an important aspect of how well the model can reproduce the actual
climate of the earth.

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Fig. 2.6. Schematic illustration of the components of the coupled atmosphere/earth/ocean

system. (Source: Cubasch and Cess, 1990.)

2.6.2 Climate model development

(a) History of GCM development

Climate models have developed considerably over the past few decades
(Mearns, 1990). The earliest experiments that evaluated effects of increased
greenhouse gases using climate models were performed in the 1960s and
1970s. General circulation models (GCMs) at that time were simple. They used
very rudimentary geometric sectors to represent land masses and simple
oceans. The oceans, which were referred to as swamp oceans, effectively
consisted of a wet surface with zero heat capacity and essentially acted only as
an evaporating surface (Manabe and Wetherald, 1975, 1980).
In the early and mid-1980s, climate models that included more realistic
geography were developed. Mixed-layer oceans, which were usually about
50 m deep and included estimates of evaporation from their surface and heat
diffusion throughout their depth, became the standard ocean model coupled
to the atmospheric models (Washington and Meehl, 1984; Schlesinger and
Mitchell, 1987). The inclusion of a mixed-layer ocean also allowed the annual
seasonal cycle of solar radiation to be included. Climate modellers continued
to develop better parameterizations for atmospheric processes, such as cloud
formation and precipitation. The land surface, however, still was crudely
represented. Soil moisture dynamics were handled via the simplified bucket
approach in which the soil is assigned a certain field capacity (i.e. size of the
bucket). When field capacity was exceeded, runoff would occur. Evaporation
of soil water (water in the bucket) occurred at diminishing rates as the amount

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of water in the bucket decreased. Horizontal resolutions of these climate

models were typically between 5 and 8 degrees (Schlesinger and Mitchell,
1987).
By the mid 1980s, more attention was directed toward improving the
overly simplified surface of the earth. Several research groups (Dickinson
et al., 1986; Sellers et al., 1986) developed sophisticated surface packages that
included vegetation/atmosphere interactions and more realistic soil moisture
representation. At the same time, the spatial resolution of the atmospheric
modelling further increased, and other parameterizations for processes such as
cloud formation and precipitation were also further improved (Mitchell et al.,
1990).
Since the late 1980s, atmospheric models have been coupled with
three-dimensional dynamic ocean models, which allows for much more
realistic modelling of interannual variability and longer-term variability of the
coupled system. The ocean models allow for detailed modelling of horizontal
and vertical heat transport within the ocean (Stouffer et al., 1989; Washington
and Meehl, 1989).
In the 1990s, the spatial resolutions of the atmospheric and oceanic
components of models have been greatly improved. A relatively standard
resolution of about 250–300 km (2.8 degrees) for the atmosphere and of about
100–200 km (1 or 2 degrees) for the ocean is used (Johns et al., 1997; Boville
and Gent, 1998). Another important new improvement is the coupling of
atmospheric and oceanic models without using flux adjustment. Previously
this adjustment was necessary to avoid coupled models drifting away from the
observed climate. However, the result of the flux adjustment was that the
models were less physically based, and their responses under perturbed
conditions were somewhat constrained (Gates et al., 1992). The most recent
coupled models have largely resolved the problem, partially by increasing
their resolution, and no flux adjustment is necessary (Gregory and Mitchell,
1997; Boville and Gent, 1998).
It is important to note that climate models are computationally quite
expensive, i.e. they require large amounts of computer time. Computer power
has increased tremendously over the past few years; however, the computer
time required by the models has also increased because of the increasing
sophistication of the modelling of various aspects of the climate system
and the increased spatial resolution. Giorgi and Mearns (1991), for example,
calculated the amount of computer time required to run the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model (CCM1) on the
Cray X-MP, a state-of-the-art computer at the time. At a resolution of
4.5 degrees by 7.5 degrees, 1 cpu (central processing unit) minute was
required to simulate 1 day of the global model run. To run the same model at a
resolution of 0.3 degrees by 0.3 degrees would have required 3000 cpu
minutes. This meant that it would have taken 2 days of computing time to
simulate one actual day of climate with the CCM1. Computer power increases
have kept pace with climate model developments throughout the 1990s, but
power still remains a limitation for performing multi-ensemble, transient runs
with fully coupled atmosphere/ocean models.

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As climate models have improved with more detailed modelling of

important processes and increasing spatial resolution, their ability to repro-
duce faithfully the current climate has improved significantly. The models
can now represent most of the features of the current climate on a large
regional or continental scale. The distributions of pressure, temperature, wind,
precipitation and ocean currents are well represented in time (seasonally) and
space. However, at spatial scales of less than several hundred kilometres,
the models still can produce errors as large as 4 or 5°C in monthly average
temperature and as large as 150% in precipitation (Risbey and Stone, 1996;
Kittel et al., 1998; Doherty and Mearns, 1999).

(b) Higher resolution models – regional climate models

Over the past 10 years, the technique of nesting higher resolution regional
climate models within GCMs has evolved to increase the spatial resolution of
the models over a region of interest (Giorgi and Mearns, 1991; McGregor,
1997). The basic strategy is to rely on the GCM to simulate the large-scale
atmospheric circulation and the regional model to simulate sub-GCM-scale
distributions of climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature and winds.
The GCM provides the initial and lateral boundary conditions for driving the
regional climate model. In numerous experiments, models for such regions as
the continental USA, Europe, Australia and China have been driven by ambient
and doubled CO2 output from GCMs. The spatial pattern of changed climate,
particularly changes in precipitation, simulated by these regional models
often departs significantly from the more general pattern over the same region
simulated by the GCM (Giorgi et al., 1994; Jones et al., 1997; Laprise et al.,
1998; Machenhauer et al., 2000). The regional model is able to provide more
detailed results because the spatial resolution is in the order of tens of
kilometres, whereas the GCM scale is an order of magnitude coarser. This
method, while often producing better simulations of the regional climate, is
still dependent on the quality of the information provided by the GCM.
It is likely that the best regional climate simulations eventually will be per-
formed by global models run at high spatial resolutions (tens of kilometres). In
the meantime, the regional modelling approach affords climate scientists the
opportunity to obtain greater insight into possible details of climatic change on
a regional scale. It also provides researchers assessing the impact of climate
with high-resolution scenarios of climatic change to use as input in models of
climate impact, such as crop models. For example, Mearns et al. (1999, 2000)
have used results from recent regional climate simulations over the USA to
study the effect of the scale of climatic change scenarios on crop production in
the Great Plains.

2.6.3 Climatic change experiments with climate models

To simulate possible future climatic change, climate models are run using
changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (and aerosols) which
then affect the radiative forcing within the models. In the early to mid-1980s,

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experiments were primarily conducted using doubled [CO2] with climate

models that possessed relatively simple mixed-layer oceans (described above).
In general, control runs of 10–20 years duration were produced. In the climate
change experiments, the amount of CO2 was instantaneously doubled, and the
climate model was run until it reached equilibrium in relation to the new
forcing (Schlesinger and Mitchell, 1987).
In the late 1980s, coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation models
(AOGCMs) that used evolving changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations
were used to simulate the response of the earth/atmosphere system over time.
In these experiments, time-varying forcing by CO2 and other greenhouse gases
on a yearly basis was used, and the transient response of the climate was
analysed. These first-generation experiments were still run at relatively coarse
spatial resolutions of about 5 degrees latitude and longitude (Stouffer et al.,
1989; Washington and Meehl, 1989; Cubasch et al., 1992; Manabe et al., 1992).
Results from these early runs indicated that the time evolving response could
result in some patterns of climatic change different from those which resulted
from equilibrium experiments. For example, initial cooling in the North
Atlantic and off the coast of Antarctica was a common feature of these
experiments (Stouffer et al., 1989). These differences were a direct effect of the
dynamic response of the ocean model to the change in radiative forcing.
More recent experiments have included detailed radiative models for each
greenhouse gas and the effects of sulphate aerosols. These simulations with
coupled models have been run at much higher spatial resolutions (e.g.
2.8 degrees) and have incorporated effects of increases in greenhouse gases
including direct (and sometimes indirect) aerosol effects (Bengtsson, 1997;
Johns et al., 1997; Meehl et al., 1996; Boer et al., 2000a). However, in this
generation of runs, the aerosol effect was highly parameterized: surface albedo
was changed to simulate the direct effect, and cloud albedo was altered to
simulate the indirect effect (Meehl et al., 1996). By including the effects of
aerosols, patterns distinct from those produced by greenhouse gases alone
emerge.

2.6.4 Most recent results of climate models

A great deal of progress in the development of knowledge of climate and in

the ability to model the climate system has occurred in the past 10 years.
However, some of the fundamental statements made in the first IPCC report
(Houghton et al., 1990) still hold today. It is still considered likely that the
doubled greenhouse gas equilibrium response of global surface temperature
ranges from 1.5 to 4.5°C. It is also now inevitable that [CO2] doubling will be
surpassed.

(a) Summary results from IPCC 1995

To analyse climatic responses to a range of different scenarios of concen-
trations of emissions of greenhouse gas and aerosol amounts, simple (and
comparatively less expensive) upwelling diffusion energy balance climate

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models are often used (Wigley and Raper, 1992). These models provide the
mean global temperature response to the transient greenhouse gas and aerosol
scenarios. Another factor considered is a range of model sensitivity. Climate
model sensitivity is the equilibrium global mean warming per unit radiation
forcing, usually expressed as the global mean warming simulated by the model
for a doubling of [CO2]. For the 1995 IPCC report (Houghton et al., 1996),
model sensitivities of 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5°C were used in conjunction with the
emission scenarios from IPCC 1992 to provide a range of estimated global
mean temperature for 2100. Across the three model sensitivities and the range
of 1992 emission scenarios, the projected increase in global mean temperature
by 2100 ranged from 0.9 to 3.5°C (Kattenberg et al., 1996). Results based on a
climate sensitivity of 2.5°C (medium range value) for all the scenarios are
presented in Fig. 2.7. Any of these estimated rates of warming would be the
greatest to occur in the past 10,000 years. Note also that all the scenarios
showed warming even though the cooling effects of aerosols were accounted
for in the simulations. Changes in sea level, based on the full range of climate
models (energy balance and AOGCMs) and full range of 1992 scenarios,
ranged between 13 and 94 cm (Warrick et al., 1996). For the ‘middle-of-
the-road’ IS92a scenario, the increase is projected to be about 50 cm, with a
range from 20 to 86 cm.
There were regional differences in the various climate model runs, but
some points of similarity occurred in all transient coupled model simulations,
with and without aerosol effects. These included: (i) greater surface warming
of land than of oceans; (ii) minimum warming around Antarctica and the
northern Atlantic; (iii) maximum warming in high northern latitudes in late

Fig. 2.7. Projected global mean surface temperature changes from 1990 to 2100 for
the full set of IS92 emission scenarios. A climate sensitivity of 2.5°C is assumed.
(Source: Houghton et al., 1996.)

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autumn and winter associated with reduced sea ice and snow cover; (iv)
decreased diurnal temperature range over land in most seasons and most
regions; (v) enhanced global mean hydrological cycle; and (vi) increased
precipitation in high latitudes (Kattenberg et al., 1996).
There were some important regional differences between the transient
CO2-only runs and those using increased CO2 plus aerosols. For example,
Mitchell et al. (1995) found that Asian monsoon rainfall increased in the
CO2-only run, but decreased in the CO2 plus aerosols run. Also, precipitation
decreased in southern Europe in the elevated CO2-only case, but increased in
the CO2 plus aerosols run. This particular climate model did not include the
indirect aerosols effect.

(b) Detection and attribution – the IPCC 1995 debate

Important issues in the effort to understand present and future climate are
those of attribution and detection. The chapter dedicated to this topic in the
IPCC 1995 volume (Santer et al., 1996) inspired intense debate between
the ‘naysayers’ on the issue of climate change and those scientists who
participated in the IPCC process (Moss and Schneider, 1996). Detection, in the
present context, refers to the detection of statistically significant changes in
the global climate system. Attribution refers to determining the cause for
these changes as at least partially anthropogenic. Thus, the combined goal of
these two endeavours is to determine if there have been significant human-
caused changes in the climate system, particularly during the 20th century.
However, it is important to understand that both these concepts are inherently
probabilistic in nature; i.e. there are no clearcut yes or no answers (Santer
et al., 1996).
Detection initially involved looking at one time series of one variable (e.g.
global mean temperature). The purpose was to detect a signal of global
warming by statistically separating out the natural variability in the time series
from the possible anthropogenically generated variability. This is a difficult
problem, given the high natural variability (on various time scales) of the
climate system. Often this separation is aided by the use of climate model
results in which only the natural variability is being modelled.
More recent work in detection and attribution has focused on examining
patterns of change in temperature across many points on the earth’s
surface, through the various vertical heights of the atmosphere, or using a
combination of both (three-dimensional analysis). The most sophisticated
detection/attribution investigation involves patterns of multiple variables (e.g.
temperature and precipitation). Santer et al. (1996) provides an excellent
review of the work performed in this important and complex research area.
Establishing the detectability of human-induced global climatic change signifi-
cantly changes the perception of the climatic change problem, particularly by
policy makers. In the IPCC 1995 chapter, a statement was made for the first
time that global warming due to anthropogenic pollution of the atmosphere is
most likely occurring.
Some of the strongest evidence for this in IPCC 1995 was from multivariate
detection studies. These compared observed three-dimensional temperature

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patterns with the patterns found in AOGCM model runs that took into account
20th century historical changes in both CO2 and sulphate aerosols. Often,
comparisons of the relative strength of statistical agreement between
observations and climate model runs with CO2-only forcing were made against
those with both CO2 and aerosol forcing. In general, agreement was strongest
between observations and climate model results with both forcings. The
chapter concludes with the statement, ‘The body of statistical evidence when
examined in the context of our physical understanding of the climate system,
now points towards a discernible human influence on global climate’ (Santer
et al., 1996, p. 439).
When the IPCC 1995 report appeared, numerous editorials and opinion
pieces alleged that more conservative statements in the chapter had been
inappropriately changed by the lead authors after the final wording had been
approved (e.g. F. Seitz, Wall Street Journal, 12 June 1996). These accusations
were made without full knowledge of the carefully constructed approval
procedures for the final IPCC document. A flurry of counter-editorials
appeared (e.g. Bolin et al., Wall Street Journal, 25 June 1996) defending the
authors of the chapter, and the debate eventually subsided by autumn.
However, by this time numerous scientists, policy makers, national politicians
and world leaders had become involved.
Work in detection/attribution has continued to move forward since the
IPCC 1995 report (Santer et al., 1997). For example, Wigley et al. (1998)
demonstrated that the serial correlation structure of observed temperature data
was much stronger than that in two state-of-the-art climate models that did
not account for increases in CO2 or changes in aerosols. As climate models
and observations continue to improve, and understanding of the external
radiative forcing of the climate system increases, higher levels of detection and
attribution will be obtained.

(c) Since IPCC 1995

Since the IPCC 1995 report, more coupled-climate runs have been performed
with higher resolution models, and with both direct and indirect aerosol
effects. Moreover, more physically based modelling of aerosol effects in the
atmosphere is under way (Feichter et al., 1997; Qian and Giorgi, 1999; J. Kiehl,
1998, personal communication).
In the current National Assessment Program in the USA, two of the most
recent modelling transient experiments to the year 2100 are being used – that
of the Canadian model CGCMI (Reader and Boer, 1998; Boer et al., 2000b) and
the British HADCM2 (Johns et al., 1997; Mitchell and Johns, 1997). In the
HADCM2 run, regional climate changes over the USA show that temperature
increases in the order of 5°C in winter and 3°C in summer are expected to
occur by 2060. The CGCMI model projects a 4–7°C greater warming over
North America by 2060 than does the HADCM2. The problem still remains
that the models do not always agree on the specific regional climate changes.
For example, the CGCMI model predicts precipitation decreases in the south-
eastern USA in the summer, while the HADCM2 model predicts increases
(Doherty and Mearns, 1999).

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2.6.5 Changes in climate variability

The discussions above have focused on changes in average climate conditions.

However, under some new mean climate state, there will continue to be vari-
ability on various time scales around that mean. It is likely that the variability
will also change as the mean climate state changes. The issue of change
in variability in concert with change in mean conditions is a particularly
important one from the perspective of impacts. It is well known that changes
in variability can be equal to or more important than changes in the mean to
many resource systems, such as agriculture. Semenov and Barrow (1997) and
Mearns et al. (1997) have demonstrated that crop models are affected by
changes in both the mean and variance of climate time series.
One of the important specific ways that changes in both climate mean and
variability affect resource systems is the effect they have on changes in the
frequency of extreme events (Mearns et al., 1984). The effect of temperature
and precipitation extremes on various agricultural crops has been investigated
(Raper and Kramer, 1983; Acock and Acock, 1993). In essence, changes in
variability have a greater effect on changes in the frequency of climatic
extremes than do changes in the mean (Katz and Brown, 1992). However, it is
the combination of the two types of changes that is most important. Hence, we
need to understand how climatic variability (on various time scales) might
change in a world warmed by greenhouse gases.

(a) Interannual time scale

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can roughly be characterized as
an irregular oscillation of the coupled atmosphere/ocean system in the tropical
Pacific, is associated with significant precipitation anomalies in the tropics and
beyond (Kiladis and Diaz, 1989). These anomalous patterns have had serious
impacts on human society worldwide (Glantz, 1996). Because ENSO events
are the most important source of interannual climatic variability, the accuracy
with which climate models reproduce the intensity and occurrence of such
events and how well they ‘predict’ changes in them under conditions of global
warming is of great importance.
Climate models are now becoming sophisticated enough to simulate
correctly processes responsible for climatic variability on interannual to
decadal time scales. Most state-of-the-art AOGCMs simulate ENSO-like
behaviour to some degree, but the simulation is often weaker than the
observed events (Knutson and Manabe, 1994; Roeckner et al., 1996; Meehl and
Arblaster, 1998).
ENSO events continue to occur under increased CO2 conditions. Tett
(1995) found no major changes in the frequency of El Niño events in his
examination of the Hadley Centre (HADCM) coupled-transient run. Knutson
and Manabe (1994), analysing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL) AOGCM, found decreased amplitude in the Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI) in a transient 4 × [CO2] experiment. They emphasized that their results
were from a coupled model, the ocean component of which had a rather
coarse resolution. Thus, this model may not realistically simulate coupled

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ocean/atmosphere responses in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Knutson et al.

(1997) also found decreased amplitude of ENSO, but found no change in the
frequency of El Niño/La Niña events with increasing concentrations of
atmospheric CO2. Newer coupled model runs with higher resolution provide
better simulations of ENSO events (Roeckner et al., 1996; Meehl and Arblaster,
1998), but they provide no definitive picture of how ENSO may change. Thus,
predicting change in ENSO events in a world warmed by greenhouse gases is
still open to speculation.

(b) Higher frequency variability changes

Compared with change in ENSO events, there have been clearer signals in
climate models relating to how certain aspects of daily climate may change (for
reviews of earlier results, see Mearns, 1992, 1993). The clearest indications
from climate model experiments using increased greenhouse gas are
decreased daily variability of winter temperature in northern mid-latitude
climates and increased variability of daily precipitation (Gregory and Mitchell,
1995; Mearns et al., 1995a,b; Kattenberg et al., 1996). Changes in frequency
and intensity of precipitation have been highly variable in climate models and
are closely associated with the change in mean daily precipitation. However,
Hennessy et al. (1997) found that greater intensity of precipitation occurred in
many areas in two equilibrium runs of models with mixed-layer oceans. Often
this was associated with an increased contribution of convective rainfall vs.
non-convective rainfall. Zwiers and Kharin (1998) found precipitation
extremes increased almost everywhere over the globe.
Other types of extremes have also been investigated. For example,
Knutson et al. (1998) found intensification of hurricanes and tropical storms in
the GFDL climate model. There are indications that increases in extremes of
such variables as temperature and precipitation are likely. However, because
climate models still cannot resolve all processes that are responsible for
extreme events, all the results reported above should be interpreted cautiously.

2.7 The IPCC Third Assessment Report

New scenarios of future emissions of the various greenhouse gases and
aerosols are currently being developed by Working Group III for the IPCC
Third Assessment Report to be completed in 2001. Preliminary estimates that
will be used in the newest climate model simulations have been made
(H. Pitcher, Energy Modeling Forum Workshop, August 1998, Snowmass, Col-
orado; Nakicenovic, 2000).
These scenarios are formed differently from those of 1992. Basically,
narrative story lines that include key scenario characteristics have been
developed to describe a short history of a possible future development. The
narratives explore what might happen if political, economic, technical and
social development took particular alternative directions. From these
narratives, quantifications are developed for the major factors that will
influence emissions. These factors include population growth, gross domestic

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product and cumulative resource use. Four different macro-regions are

considered: countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EEFSU),
Asia, and the rest of the world (ROW). The first two macro-regions represent
developed countries, and the latter two represent developing countries.
Interactions among industrialized and developing countries are particularly
considered. There is neither a ‘best guess’ scenario (i.e. no probabilities are
given for the four scenarios) nor an extreme ‘disaster’ one.
Scenario A1 describes a world with very rapid economic growth, low
population growth, and rapid introduction of new and efficient technology.
Scenario A2 describes a highly heterogeneous world with high population
growth and less concern for rapid economic growth. Scenario B1 characterizes
a convergent world with rapid change in economic structures, introduction of
clean technologies, rapid technological development, and concern for global
equity and environmental and social sustainability. Scenario B2 describes
another heterogeneous world with less rapid and more diverse technological
change. Scenario B1 has the lowest increase in total emissions of carbon by
2100; Scenario A1 has the highest. Scenarios A2 and B2 attain similar
mid-range levels of carbon emissions by 2100. In all of these scenarios,
sulphate aerosols are assumed to start decreasing before 2040, and in most of
them, to start decreasing before 2030. All aerosols emission scenarios are
considerably lower than the IS92a one. Aerosols essentially become relatively
minor forcing factors by the end of the 21st century. These changes suggest
less extreme scenarios than those of IS92. There still remains a set of scenarios
based on the underlying economic and political assumptions, but the outer
boundaries are narrower than those in earlier reports. Within the coming year,
major climate modelling groups will use these emissions scenarios (once they
are converted into concentrations) to generate new projections of climatic
change to the year 2100.

2.8 Concluding Remarks

What do we need to know? When will we know more? When will we know
enough? These are the kinds of questions often posed by the media to
scientists who study future climatic change, and which often receive less than
definitive answers.
It is probably disappointing to many scientists in agricultural and climatic
change research fields that we still know so little about future climate.
However, uncertainties about future climate are associated with uncertainties
regarding emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and these are in turn
strongly associated with uncertainties regarding the economics and politics of
most countries in the world. Thus, it is easy to see why there is such lack of
predictability. Perhaps more discouraging is that there is still so much
uncertainty about regional changes of climate and a lack of agreement among
the results from climate models on regional scales when given a particular
scenario of future emissions.

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Climatic Change and Variability 29

Even this latter uncertainty need not have such a daunting effect on our
ability to cope with climatic change. We are learning more and more every
day. With each new generation of climate model, new insights are gained into
how the physical processes in the climate system work. Moreover, the
agreement between observations and climate models improves as the climate
models become better able to account for major forcings that have driven the
climate system in the 20th century (Mitchell et al., 1995). We may never know
enough to determine 100 years in advance precisely how precipitation will
change in eastern Kansas or southern Italy, but many scientists and policy
makers feel we know enough now to implement global policies to limit the
production of greenhouse gases. Indeed, the acceptance of the Kyoto Accords
is a most compelling indication that imperfect knowledge of the future does
not preclude taking judicious action to responsibly control the future of our
environment.

References
Acock, B. and Acock, M.C. (1993) Modeling approaches for predicting crop ecosystem
responses to climate change. In: Buxton, D.R., Shibles, R., Forsberg, R.A., Blad,
B.L., Asay, K.H., Paulsen, G.M. and Wilson, R.F. (eds) International Crop Science I.
Crop Science Society of America, Madison, Wisconsin, pp. 299–306.
Bengtsson, L. (1997) A numerical simulation of anthropogenic climate change. Ambio
26, 58–65.
Boer, G.J., Flato, G., Reader, M.C. and Ramsden, D. (2000a) A transient climate change
simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and
comparison with the instrumental record for the 20th century. Climate Dynamics
(in press).
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