FINAL PROJECT 

Changing Patterns of Rainfall

Submitted to:
Ma’am Kanwal Naseem

Submitted by:
 Rameen Mahmood
Hamna Amer
Nimra Shakil
Maida Rouf
Aruba Anwar

 Submitted On:
Date: 20th April, 2020

Course Title:
 Climatology

Semester:
8
 Changing Rain of Patterns
Introduction:
Climate change is change in weather pattern for a significantly long period. One of the major
impacts of climate change is variation in rainfall pattern which directly or indirectly affects
the regional water sources which are rain recharged. Rainfall‐induced landslide triggering is
associated with rainwater infiltration that may load and weaken soil mantle and lead to abrupt
soil mass release.

Temporal rainfall patterns may affect the infiltration process and control landslide dynamics
and hazard evolution. The effects of rainfall temporal patterns of similar durations and total
amounts on landslide dynamics are investigated by forcing a catchment scale landslide hydro
mechanical triggering model with artificial rainfall time series with different timing and
magnitudes of peak intensity. With identical duration and total amount, rainfall patterns with
early peak intensity promote landslide activity compared with late peak intensity. High peak
rainfall intensities reduce total rainwater infiltration and thus hinder landslide triggering
relative to more uniform rainfall time series

Amazon:
The Amazon is the largest tropical forest on Earth, containing an estimated 25% of global
biodiversity and accounting for 15% of global photosynthesis. Understanding how the region
will respond to climate change is central to making long‐term predictions for regional carbon
and water cycles, and this knowledge will inform rainforest management practices in the
twenty‐first century. Precipitation and its influence on seasonal soil moisture storage are
therefore critical to rainforest health, but rainfall is widely predicted to decrease over the
Amazon and increase over the Andes in realistic simulations of the twenty‐first century from
the Climate Model Intercomparison Project

Source: The Amazon rainforest.

Changing Rain and Snow Patterns As temperatures rise and the air becomes warm, more
moisture evaporates from land and water into the atmosphere. More moisture in the air
generally means we can expect more rain and snow (called precipitation) and more heavy
downpours.

Source: Changing Rainfall patterns

As temperatures rise and the air becomes warmer, more moisture evaporates from land and
water into the atmosphere. More moisture in the air generally means we can expect more rain
and snow (called precipitation) and more heavy downpours. But this extra precipitation is not
spread evenly around the globe, and some places might actually get less precipitation than
they used to get. That's because climate change causes shifts in air and ocean currents, which
can change weather patterns.

Climate models predict that the addition of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere will shift
precipitation in two main ways. The first shift is in a strengthening of existing precipitation
patterns. This is commonly called "wet get wetter, dry get drier."

The second shift is a change in storm tracks, which should move away from the equator and
toward the poles as atmospheric circulation changes.

Precipitation is the general term for rainfall, snowfall and other forms of frozen or liquid
water falling from clouds. Precipitation is intermittent, and the character of the precipitation
when it occurs depends greatly on temperature and the weather situation. The latter
determines the supply of moisture through winds and surface evaporation, and how it is
gathered together in storms as clouds. Precipitation forms as water vapor condenses, usually
in rising air that expands and hence cools. The upward motion comes from air rising over
mountains, warm air riding over cooler air (warm front), colder air pushing under warmer air
(cold front), convection from local heating of the surface, and other weather and cloud
systems. Hence, changes in any of these aspects alter precipitation. As precipitation maps
tend to be spotty, overall trends in precipitation are indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity
Index, which is a measure of soil moisture using precipitation and crude estimates of changes
in evaporation.

The Indian and Pakistan monsoon typically hits the subcontinent in June and continues till
September. The Western Ghats, Western Coastal Plains, and parts of Deccan Plateau are
covered during this period. A second round of rain hits the country from October to
December. Parts of southern India, the Eastern Ghats and parts of the Deccan Plateau benefit
during these months.

However, not all regions receive the same amount of rainfall. The direction and speed of
moisture-laden winds, their moisture content, pressure conditions, cyclonic depression (not
always turning into a cyclone), and direction of relief winds determine the rainfall received in
every region. Any major changes in these conditions affect not only our ecology, but also our
economy which still depends on agricultural production.

Source: Climate Change

● Why and how are rainfall patterns changing?
As a result of global warming, the world’s climate is changing and its effect is being felt the
world over. And one of the most important parameters of climate is rainfall. Just as there is a
direct relationship between climate and agriculture, so is there one between rainfall and
agriculture. So when rainfall patterns change, its effect is directly felt on cropping patterns
worldwide. Again, as a result of depletion of the ozone layer, there will be more heat trapping
gases in the atmosphere, which, according to climate models, will shift rainfall/precipitation
patterns in two major ways. The first shift is in strengthening the current patterns, which
means the wet regions would get wetter and dry regions would get drier. This is because
warmer air as a result global warming traps more water vapor, and scientists predict that this
additional water will fall in the already wet parts of the earth. The second shift is due to
changes in atmospheric circulation, because of which storm tracks [the narrow zones in seas
and oceans along which storms travel, driven by prevailing winds] would move away from
the equator and towards the poles.

A consequence of increased heating from the human-induced enhanced greenhouse effect is

increased evaporation, provided that adequate surface moisture is available. Hence, surface
moisture effectively acts as an ‘air conditioner’, as heat used for evaporation acts to moisten
the air rather than warm it. An observed consequence of this is that summers often tend to be
either warm and dry or cool and wet. In the areas of eastern North and South America where
it has become wetter, temperatures have therefore increased less than elsewhere. Over
northern continents in winter, however, more precipitation is associated with higher
temperatures, as the water holding capacity of the atmosphere increases in the warmer
conditions. However, in these regions, where precipitation has generally increased somewhat,
increases in temperatures have increased drying, making the precipitation changes less
evident

As climate changes, several direct influences alter precipitation amount, intensity, frequency
and type. Warming accelerates land surface drying and increases the potential incidence and
severity of droughts, which has been observed in many places worldwide

However, a well-established physical law (the Clausius-Clapeyron relation) determines that

the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1°C rise in
temperature

Observations of trends in relative humidity are uncertain but suggest that it has remained
about the same overall, from the surface throughout the troposphere, and hence increased
temperatures will have resulted in increased water vapors. Over the 20th century, based on
changes in sea surface temperatures, it is estimated that atmospheric water vapors increased
by about 5% in the atmosphere over the oceans. Because precipitation comes mainly from
weather systems that feed on the water vapors stored in the atmosphere, this has generally
increased precipitation intensity and the risk of heavy rain and snow events.

Basic theory, climate model simulations and empirical evidence all confirm that warmer
climates, owing to increased water vapors, lead to more intense precipitation events
The warmer climate therefore increases risks of both drought − where it is not raining − and
floods − where it is − but at different times and/or places. For instance, the summer of 2002
in Europe brought widespread floods but was followed a year later in 2003 by record-
breaking heat waves and drought. The distribution and timing of floods and droughts is most
profoundly affected by the cycle of El Niño events, particularly in the tropics and over much
of the mid-latitudes of Pacific-rim countries

Local and regional changes in the character of precipitation also depend a great deal on
atmospheric circulation patterns determined by El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO; a measure of westerly wind strength over the North Atlantic in winter) and other
patterns of variability. Some of these observed circulation changes are associated with
climate change. An associated shift in the storm track makes some regions wetter and some −
often nearby − drier, making for complex patterns of change. For instance, in the European
sector a more positive NAO in the 1990s led to wetter conditions in northern Europe and
drier conditions over the Mediterranean and northern African regions

Source: Climate Change & its impact on our water resource

● What's happening now?

On average, the world is already getting more precipitation now than it did 100 years ago: 6
percent more in the United States and nearly 2 percent more worldwide.

The effects vary by region, though. For example, states in the Northeast are getting more
precipitation than they used to get, but Hawaii is getting less.
 ● What will happen in the future?
Precipitation is expected to increase in higher latitudes and decrease in areas closer to the
Equator. The northern United States will become wetter while the South, particularly the
Southwest, will become drier.

● Why does it matter?

Too little or too much water can be a problem. In many places, people depend on rain and
snowmelt to fill lakes and streams and provide a source of water for drinking, watering crops,
and other uses. However, heavy rain can cause flooding.

The major effects of changing rain and snow patterns on people and the environment:

Source: National Climate Assessment

● Agriculture
● Water Supplies
● Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems
● Forests
● Recreation
 Source: Major effect of changing rain and snow pattern

Agriculture

Source: Global food crops at risk from changing rainfall patterns

The crops that we grow for food need specific conditions to thrive, including the right
temperature and enough water. A changing climate could have both positive and negative
effects on crops. For example, the northern parts of the United States have generally cool
temperatures, so warmer weather could help certain crops grow. In southern areas where
temperatures are already hot, even more heat could hurt crop growth. Global climate change
will also affect agriculture and food supply in many other ways.

The industrial model that dominates our nation’s agriculture, a model that neglects soils,
reduces diversity, and relies too heavily on fertilizers and pesticides makes farms susceptible
to climate impacts in several ways.

The combination of advancing climate change and an already-vulnerable industrial system is

a perfect storm that threatens farmer’s livelihoods and our food supply. The good news is that
there are tools in the form of science based farming practices that can buffer farmers from
climate damage and help make their operations more resilient and sustainable for the long
term. But farmers face many obstacles to changing practices, so it’s critical that policy
makers shift federal agriculture investments to support and accelerate this transition.

Rainfall patterns have already begun shifting across the country, and such changes are
expected to intensify over the coming years. This is likely to mean more intense periods of
heavy rain and longer dry periods, even within the same regions.

Projected increase in maximum daily precipitation between now and 2090 according to the
RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 climate change scenarios. Intense rainfall events, and the flooding that
often follows them, will become more common.

Source: EPA report

What's at stake?
Crop Losses
Climate change could make it too hot to grow certain crops, and droughts caused by climate
change could reduce the amount of water available for irrigation. Climate change is also
likely to cause stronger storms and more floods, which can damage crops. Higher
temperatures and changing rainfall patterns could help some kinds of weeds and pests to
spread to new areas. If the global temperature rises an additional 3.6°F, U.S. corn production
is expected to decrease by 10 to 30 percent.

What can people do about it?

Farmers may be able to prepare for climate change by planting crops during different times of
the year, or by planting crops that can survive better in hot and dry conditions.

Water Supplies

Source: Climate Change & Water

Climate change is affecting where, when, and how much water is available for people to use.
Many parts of the world already have very little water, and climate change could make this
problem worse. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increasing droughts
will affect the amount of water in lakes, rivers, and streams, as well as the amount of water
that seeps into the ground to replenish groundwater.
What's at stake?

Public Water Supplies

In 2007, a major drought hit the southeastern United States. Lake Lanier, which is the main
source of drinking water for the Atlanta area, was reduced to record–low water levels. People
had to use less water in their homes and businesses and make other changes, such as not
watering their lawns.

What can people do about it?

As climate change continues, people might have to prepare for water shortages by using less
water.
Lakes, Rivers, and Streams
Many places rely on snowmelt to fill the lakes, rivers, and streams that help keep drinking
water reservoirs full and provide water to irrigate crops. For example, many parts of the
western United States depend on water from the Colorado River, which is fed by melting
snowpack in the Rocky Mountains. Less snowpack and earlier snowmelt will reduce the
amount of water flowing into the Colorado and other rivers.

What can people do about it?

Communities might have to find new sources of water to support their needs. People might
also have to adapt by using less water.

Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems

Most plants and animals live in areas with very specific climate conditions, such as
temperature and rainfall patterns, that enable them to thrive. Any change in the climate of an
area can affect the plants and animals living there, as well as the makeup of the entire
ecosystem. Some species are already responding to a warmer climate by moving to cooler
locations. For example, some North American animals and plants are moving farther north or
to higher elevations to find suitable places to live. Climate change also alters the life cycles of
plants and animals. For example, as temperatures get warmer, many plants are starting to
grow and bloom earlier in the spring and survive longer into the fall. Some animals are
waking from hibernation sooner or migrating at different times, too.
What's at stake?

Disappearing Habitats
As the Earth gets warmer, plants and animals that need to live in cold places, like on
mountaintops or in the Arctic, might not have a suitable place to live. If the Earth keeps
getting warmer, up to one–fourth of all the plants and animals on Earth could become extinct
within 100 years. Every plant and animal plays a role in the ecosystem (for example, as a
source of food, a predator, a pollinator, a source of shelter), so losing one species can affect
many others.

What can people do about it?

Just like people, plants and animals will have to adapt to climate change. Many types of birds
in North America are already migrating further north as the temperature warms. People can
help these animals adapt by protecting and preserving their habitats.

What's at stake?

Coral Reefs
Coral reefs are created in shallow tropical waters by millions of tiny animals called corals.
Each coral makes a skeleton for itself, and over time, these skeletons build up to create coral
reefs, which provide habitat for lots of fish and other ocean creatures. Warmer water has
already caused coral bleaching (a type of damage to corals) in many parts of the world. By
2050, live corals could become rare in tropical and sub-tropical reefs due to the combined
effects of warmer water and increased ocean acidity caused by more carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. The loss of coral reefs will reduce habitats for many other sea creatures, and it
will disrupt the food web that connects all the living things in the ocean.

What can people do about it?

To help give coral reefs a better chance of surviving the effects of climate change, swimmers,
boaters, and divers should treat these fragile ecosystems with care. People can also support
groups working to protect coral reefs.

Forests
Forests provide homes for many kinds of plants and animals. They also protect water quality,
offer opportunities for recreation, and provide people with wood. Forests are sensitive to
many effects of climate change, including shifting weather patterns, drought, wildfires, and
 the spread of pests like the mountain pine beetle. Unlike some animals, trees can't just get
move and when the temperature gets too hot or other conditions change.

Source: Human impact on the environment

What's at stake?

Wildfires
Wildfires are already common in the forests and grasslands of the western United States. As
the Earth gets warmer and droughts increase, wildfires are expected to occur more often and
be more destructive. Wildfires do occur naturally, but the extremely dry conditions resulting
from droughts allow fires to start more easily, spread faster, and burn longer. In fact, if the
Earth gets just 3.6°F warmer, we can expect wildfires in the western United States to burn
four times more land than they do now. Fires don't just change the landscape; they also
threaten people's homes and lives.

What can people do about it?

As the climate continues to change, people will have to prepare for the risk of increasing
wildfires by becoming more aware of the danger, taking extra precautions to prevent fires,
not building in fire-prone areas, and being ready to manage fires when they do occur.

Recreation
In addition to causing all sorts of problems, such as heat waves, droughts, and coastline
damage, warmer temperatures could also affect people's jobs, recreational activities, and
hobbies. For example, in areas that usually experience cold winters, warmer temperatures
could reduce opportunities for skiing, ice fishing, and other winter sports. Also, rising sea
level could wash away beaches.

What's at stake?
Ski Season
As air temperatures continue to rise, ski season won't last as long. Places that are used to
getting lots of snow might get more rain instead. Some ski resorts might have to close
because of climate change. There may be shorter seasons for other cold weather activities,
like outdoor ice skating, snowmobiling, and ice fishing.

What can people do about it?

Owners of ski resorts and other businesses (such as hotels and restaurants) that depend on
winter sports can take steps to prepare for a shorter or less profitable winter season. For
example, some ski resorts have added activities like golf and mountain biking to make money
during other parts of the year.

What's at stake?

Beaches
Higher sea level will mean less space at the beach. A combination of stronger storms and sea
level rise could increase the rate of erosion along the coast, and some beaches could
disappear altogether.

What can people do about it?

People already add sand to certain beaches to replace sand that has washed away. In the
future, people might have to replenish beach sand more often, but this will cost more money.
In other places, people might choose to build sea walls or other structures to protect the shore
from erosion. Ideally, these projects will be planned carefully to prevent them from damaging
important habitats for plants and animals.
Conclusion:
Human-induced climate change has contributed to changing patterns of extreme weather
across the globe, from longer and hotter heat waves to heavier rains. From a broad
perspective, all weather events are now connected to climate change. While natural
variability continues to play a key role in extreme weather, climate change has shifted the
odds and changed the natural limits, making certain types of extreme weather more frequent
and more intense. While our understanding of how climate change affects extreme weather is
still developing, evidence suggests that extreme weather may be affected even more than
anticipated. Extreme weather is on the rise, and the indications are that it will continue to
increase, in both predictable and unpredictable ways.

In conclusion to the effects of climate change on different things, we will need a mix of
adaptation and mitigation measures to meet the challenge of climate change, but this is
hampered by a lack of information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Even the most
stringent mitigation efforts cannot avoid some impacts of climate change over the next few
decades. Indeed, we are beginning to see these impacts now. This makes adaptation essential,
particularly in addressing near-term impacts. However, unmitigated climate change would, in
the long term, be likely to exceed our capacity to adapt.

It is essential, then, to develop a portfolio or mix of strategies that includes mitigation,

adaptation, technological development (to enhance both adaptation and mitigation) and
research (on climate science, impacts, adaptation and mitigation). But analysis of the benefits
of various mixes of strategy is severely restricted at present by lack of information on
potential costs of impacts, by lack of comparable information on the damage that could be
avoided by adaptation and, especially, by lack of understanding of how these impacts will
vary under different socio-economic development pathways. It is important that these gaps in
our knowledge are filled quickly.

Climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector is considered a striking strategy to

manage the impacts of climate change. Climate change is likely to contribute substantially to
food insecurity in the future, by increasing food prices, and reducing food production. Food
may become more expensive as climate change mitigation efforts increase energy prices.
In addition, extreme weather events, associated with climate change may cause sudden
reductions in agricultural productivity, leading to rapid price increases
Agriculture productivity is affected rainfall pattern along with the variation in temperature. In
Pakistan it is projected with 1°C rise in temperature will cause (6–9%) decline in wheat
productivity.
Studies have revealed that increasing temperature along with the changing rainfall pattern
have a substantial impact on food production. A recent study also anticipates that wheat
production in South Asia will decline 50% by the year 2050, which is almost equal to 7% of
global crop production.
Climate change also have significant impact on water supplies with changes, precipitation
and the hydrological cycle, affecting surface water availability, as well as soil moisture
and groundwater recharge. The growing uncertainty of surface water availability and
increasing levels of water pollution and water diversions threaten to disrupt social and
economic development in many areas as well as the health of ecosystems.
Groundwater resources can, in many instances, supplement surface water, particularly as a
source of drinking water. However, in many cases, these aquifers are being tapped at an
unsustainable rate or affected by pollution. More attention should be paid
to sustainable management of non-renewable groundwater.
Many traditional practices are being refined (e.g. rainwater harvesting), while more recent
advances (e.g. artificial recharge, desalination and water reuse) are being developed further.
More support needs to be given to policy options, such as demand management, which stress
more efficient use of water resources, as well as to technical solutions on the supply side.
The projected increased variability in the availability and distribution of freshwater resources
demands political commitment to supporting and advancing technology for the collection and
analysis of hydrological data. More up-to-date information will enable policy-makers to make
better informed decisions regarding water resources management.
The health of many forest ecosystems is already affected by climate change, and the impact is
likely to accelerate, with local and global negative consequences that will likely outweigh
growth increases linked to climate change. Adaptation is possible, but it is essential to plan
and act soon to avert the most detrimental impacts and capture the opportunities. Awareness
of actual and potential impacts from climate change, assessment of uncertainties and
inclusion of risks should form the backbone of adaptation policies in forest management
planning. The main challenge may be to promote planned adaptation in the absence of
immediate crisis, especially when planned adaptation means reducing the potential long-term
gains that would be realized in the absence of climate change. Reactive adaptation may be the
most natural option but will hurt forests and society in the long term.
Climate change highlights more clearly than ever the need to tackle global issues in a
multispectral manner and necessitates collaboration among countries. Regional and national
institutions responsible for forest stewardship and management are stepping up collaboration
on this issue. Specialized institutions and governance mechanisms are slowly taking shape as
the scale of the challenge and the consequences of not tackling it globally become clear.

The Climate Change has its effects on Recreation and Tourism. Outdoor recreation is
extremely dependent on the natural resource base and the weather. The resource base
determines what kind of activities take place - for example, without water people cannot go
swimming or sailing- while the weather determines when the activity will take place.
Recreational choices are not only affected by the weather but also by socio-economic factors
such as cultural norms, levels of disposable income, school/other holidays, the attractions
present and the attractions offered elsewhere.

REFERENCES:
https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange//kids/impacts/effects/recreation.html

https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/precipitation-change

https://www.climatecommunication.org/new/features/extreme-weather/references/

http://www.fao.org/3/i0670e02.htm#:~:text=CONCLUSIONS,increases%20linked%20to%20climate
%20change.

https://public.wmo.int/en/bulletin/key-ipcc-conclusions-climate-change-impacts-and-adaptations

https://www.greenfacts.org/en/water-resources/l-3/7-protecting-water-
resources.htm#:~:text=Climate%20change%20is%20having%20a,soil%20moisture%20and
%20groundwater%20recharge.
Plagiarism report