PATTERNS OF SOCIAL CHANGE

1)   Linear models (aka evolutionary theories/models)

Change is cumulative, nonrepetitive, developmental, usually permanent (Tonnies
theory of change from gemeinschaft to gesellschaft);  2 or more stages;  view broad
historical pattern of change in human societies as involving transition from small,
undifferentiated societies with homogeneous culture to large societies with high
degree of structural differentiation and heterogeneous culture.  
Lenski’s macro stage theory or historical development of human societies:  caused by
innovations in the technology of economic production that produced ever larger surplus of
material resources
hunting and gathering
pastoral and horticultural
agricultural
industrial
Urbanization:  involves ancient process of interaction between cities and surrounding
countryside;  cities have 3 distinct characteristics of a marketplace (economic production),
of a centre of political and administrative authority (political power) and of urban
community (community conflict); 
ancient and medieval cities:  community conflict dealt with peasant tax and rent
revolts in countryside, competing elite groups and dynasties
commercial cities:  community conflict dealt with import-export taxes on trade,
competition between merchant families, wages & working conditions for craft
workers and seamen,
industrial cities:  community conflict from disadvantaged US farmers, urban
factory workers and industrialists
corporate cities:  decentralized industrial production and more service-based
economy, postwar 1950’s;  community conflict and popular protest was about
the urban community itself, about issues to do with urban decline, i.e. slums,
poverty, jobs, housing, crime and racial discrimination
 world cities:  global economy, international banking & trade, recent
decades;  community conflict deals with old residents and newer immigrant
communities, disparities in taxes and municipal services between political
jurisdictions, foreign investment and capital flight
 
2)   Cyclical models:  change is cyclical and repetitive; expressions history repeats itself and
from French plus ça change plus c’est the meme chose; classic rise and fall theories of
civilizations; argues important aspects of change are historically repetitive but what are these
important aspects – problem of selectivity.    E.g.:  some patterns of cyclical change: 
business cycles, families, college life.
Classic models: 
Pitirim Sorokin:  initially had moral cycles of recurring decadence - cycles of
idealism (e.g. Medieval Europe), and then hedonism and materialism (e.g.
contemporary Western societies) with transition periods (e.g. Rennaissance &
Reformation) blending the two in between;  
Cycles based on biological models of growth and decay, societies were
like organic systems;
Contemporary macro cyclical models: 
 political & economic cycles in US (Phillips):  pertains to inequality and
concentration of wealth;  characteristics – free market capitalist expansion and
extraordinary technological creativity, rags to riches myth renewal,
entrepreneurialism, public philosophy of laissez faire, tax cuts, lower inflation,
doubts about role of gov’t, depression in agriculture, strong financial markets,
increasing corporate restructuring, steady concentration of wealth;  e.g. Gilded
Age aka Gay 90's (1890s), Roaring Twenties followed by Great Depression;  
 
long cycles and global change:  
1. Kondratieff cycles of long wave cycles of expansion and contraction in
world economy approx. every 50 years (1830s, 1890s, 1930s, 1990s);  
2. Chirot’s theory:  repetitive cycles are embedded in longer term historical
eras;  had preindustrial cycles (premodern era) and now industrial cycles
(modern era)  – cycles begin with new technological invention applied to
production, new profits and economic growth then market saturation and
aging industries lead to economic crisis with high levels of unemployment,
political stress and social disruption, then development of new economic
technologies leads to economic expansion once again.  Describes 4
industrial cycles beginning with industrial revolution; now may be in
5th cycle (post-industrial). 
3)  Dialectical models
Contains elements of both cyclical and linear change, and thus change is spiral;
significant change takes place as an attempt to resolve the accumulation of
intolerable contradictions, the unraveling of stresses that are inherent in social
life;  short term repetitive change but with long term cumulative directional change;
processes of change persist but the contents of the processes are changing.   
Materialistic dialectic perspectives: 
Classic Marx
Contemporary - Immanuel Wallerstein:  3 contradictory modes of political and
economic organization:
1)  contradiction between older subsistence agriculture with its serfs and the newer
commercialized cash crop agriculture with its wage workers
 2)  contradiction between the older decentralized craft production and the newer
centralized factory system
 3)  the contradiction between the small market system of local trade with the vast
expansion of markets that attended the colonial expansion into the non-
European world
 Also developed World systems theory (stemming from dependency theory):  have
core, semiperiphery and periphery nations  (used to be referred to as 1st, 2nd,
& 3rd world), all at different levels of developement
Contradictions result from differential rates of change in various institutional
sectors of society, e.g. technology and production change more rapidly than
political and ideological superstructure, e.g. Ogburn's cultural lag theory
 Non-materialistic dialectic perspectives:
Contradictions are between structural characteristics and individual
aspirations/cultural themes (Aron) - common sources of inner contradictions in
contemporary capitalist societies:
1. egalitarian aspiration of people versus hierarchical structure and
organization of society thus dialectic of equality;  
2. individualism versus mass society thus dialectic of socialization;
3. high levels of affluence and national autonomy versus global
interdependency, thus dialectic of universality. 
  
Differences between the three models are units of analysis and levels of abstraction.  There
is yet to be a unified, integrated theory which provides a complete understanding of social
life where the relationship between equilibrium processes, cyclical processes and cumulative
processes is explained.