Home and Personal Care - The Brightest Spark in The India Story!
Home and Personal Care - The Brightest Spark in The India Story!
May 2013
Executive Summary
India has favorable • The $33.4 billion Indian FMCG market has been divided for a long time between the organized sector and
demographic trends unorganized sector. Unlike the US market for FMCG which is mainly dominated by a handful of global players,
India remains highly fragmented with roughly half the market going to unbranded, unpackaged home made
and is positioned at an
products
early stage of
development both for • The companies in the sector have also outperformed the overall economy, which can be analyzed by comparing
the companies and the the returns of BSE FMCG index which has beaten all investor expectations both on account of top line and
consumers in the bottom line over the past several quarters
FMCG space
• The sector is getting further buoyancy through the growing middle class whose incomes are rising and where
people are willing to spend on goods designed to improve lifestyle
• But at the same time a near saturation and cut throat competition prevailing in urban India has led many
producers of FMCG products to chalk out bold new strategies for targeting rural consumers in a big way
• The overall industry in India is expected to witness a robust growth of 18% over the next 4-5 years and emerge
as a sector which will claim the biggest component of consumer expenditure in near future, as per
ASSOCHAM’s Eco Pulse Study, 2013
• The opportunity for growth in sale of FMCG products in India continues to be large, given that per capita
consumption in India is lower than in most of the emerging markets
• In the future, demand in the Indian FMCG industry will be primarily driven in the sub-segments of Home care
and Personal care which we will cover in this report
• In addition to the evergreen Food & Beverages category, the Home and Personal care segments have seen a
pick-up in M&A activity in the recent past and many PE investors are also showing keen interest in investing in
the growing personal and home-care brands
• Entry of new foreign players and increase in stake by existing foreign players in their domestic Indian
subsidiaries is a trend that will continue to pick up steam
2
Buying the Indian Story
-Why Invest in India?
- Outperformer : FMCG Sector in India
3
Why Invest in India ? (1/2)
Key Advantage
Among the Asian Tigers, India Stands Tall GDP per Capita (US$)
Increasing Working Age Population GDP Income Tripled Over the Past Decade
Source : Data as on May 2011 by United Nations World Population Prospect, IMF Data as on Oct 8, 2012 , KKR_Insights , Nov 2012
4
Why Invest in India ? (2/2)
Low Per Capita Consumption presents growth Opportunities
Bath & Shower – Per Capita Consumption Hair Care – Per Capita Consumption
Oral Care – Per Capita Consumption Skin Care – Per Capita Consumption
5
What makes India distinct from its Peers?
• India’s young and burgeoning working age population is a • 100+ Indian companies have market capitalization of more than
competitive edge that sets Asia’s third largest economy apart from US$ 1billion and over a 1000 Indian companies have received
other countries across the world foreign institutional investments
• Its workforce, those between 15 and 64, is expected to rise from • 125 Fortune 500 companies have a Research and Development
almost 64 percent of its population in 2009 to 67 percent in 2020. base in India
Meanwhile, China's is expected to start declining from 2014
resulting in a labor shortfall by 2050 • 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software
• India’s long term growth relies on two factors: demographics and development to India
rising wealth. Its population of 1.2billion will reach 1.7billion in 2050
• The country is also marked with great diversity of
resources, preferences, climate, literacy and political miscellany
6
Increasing Rural Wealth
Case study of an Indian Village : Self Sustaining Change – Productivity creates jobs
Automated factory in the nearby town
1
Mograram village in MP: 600
households relying on a few
2 (Indore, MP) , efficient manufacturing
process, economies of scale,
tailors/ stitching jobs at home
generating jobs
With increasing wage/ prosperity, villagers
switch to readymade garments, packaged
foods, electronic items, etc.
Households free up
5 productive time, focus on
other activities Jobs (Skilled)
Worker wages
Efficiency
4 More Jobs
Some jobs return back to Sales of LCVs 3 Employment Opportunities
: also created in allied
the village in retail Rural-urban economy activities like packaging and
distribution, repair services transportation
integration
Contrary to popular belief that growth in rural areas is driven by unrestrained government spending, we believe the changes are already
showing signs of being self sustaining. The above diagram tracks changes in two simple activities : tailoring clothes and making clothes
“The self-sustaining cycle of job creation”
Source : Credit Suisse research, March 2013
7
Why Invest in the FMCG Sector in India (1/2)
Outperformer Segment in India
• The Indian Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector has been booming for the last several years and has given steady returns to
its investors despite an overall slowdown in the economy
• Rise in rural non-agricultural income and benefits from government welfare programmes contributes to the top-line growth for FMCG
companies in India
• The BSE FMCG Index is currently not cheap. It is trading at a P/E multiple of 37.19x as compared to the Sensex which is currently valued
around 17x
Source : Sector Indices are taken as on December 2012, the multiples for BSE FMCG Index and BSE Index are based on TTM as on 18th April 2013
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Why Invest in the FMCG Sector in India (2/2)
Market Dynamics
The FMCG sector is • The FMCG sector in India is growing due to increasing awareness and penetration of mass communication
the cornerstone of the into rural areas. This leads to rural tastes converging onto urban lines, which in turn is resulting in a huge
surge in the demand for many personal use products in rural areas
Indian economy. It
touches every aspect • As per the recent scenario we feel that the product categories that are expected to see the most attractive
of human life growth are the packaged food category, detergents, hair care products, cosmetics, toiletries and edible oil
• To capitalize on this current growth many FMCG companies (Indian and MNCs) are trying to increase their
presence in various sub-segments of the FMCG space. These companies are continuously trying to navigate
to new growth areas to avoid stagnation in one sub-segment and also fighting tough competition at the same
time
The key to success • In order to keep the momentum going, most Indian FMCG companies scout for acquisitions of proven & well-
are building a brand established brands to capture market share and avoid launching of new products which may or may not get
and a strong market recognition
distribution network
• In a recent development a major FMCG giant Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL), which is owned by the
British-Dutch company Unilever, who controls ~52% majority stake in HUL is looking to raise its current stake
to 75% at a 20% premium to the current share price and at a P/E multiple of ~34x (HUL dominates the Indian
FMCG market will almost 50% market share in all the sub-segments where it plays)
• The announcement of the HUL transaction brings to light the fact that the Indian growth story still remains the
most attractive opportunity for foreign players who are eyeing presence in the emerging market
• Amid the recent gloomy scenario of the Indian economy, most of the FMCG companies have bucked the
trend by posting stellar top line growth driven by sustained volumes. Major companies like
Marico, Emami, Dabur and Hindustan Uniliver Limited (HUL) have recorded 17%, 15%, 12% and 10%
volume growth respectively during the forth quarter of FY12-13
• The sector has not seen any sign of a slowdown in the demand. In fact, demand for FMCG products both in
urban and rural India has shown a marked increase sequentially
9
FMCG Industry in India
-Industry Overview
10
FMCG Industry in India
Overview
Industry Overview Growth2 (INR in Billions)
• Lifestyle and premium range products are the current hot target
Tobacco product segments among Indian FMCG Players
12% Food and
Beverages
• An increasing number of companies are using the strategy of
Personal Care 50%
26%
backward integration for increasing their profit margins
11
FMCG Industry in India
Market Dynamics
Growth Drivers Selected FMCG Trends in India
Paras Pharma A
2012 Marico (Personal Care 136 100% 3.3x Sales Align • Create strong distribution networks and
Brands) skills to deliver to the last mile
Partnerships
Temasek
2012
through Godrej
136 4.9% 9xEBITDA • Enter into partnerships that help you reach
Baytree Consumer Ltd
your market, such as those which could
Investment
explore new market opportunities
12
Current Opportunities
Where will $$$ be made?
• In our view, Skin care, Home insecticides, Hair oils and the Shampoo categories have the highest growth potential for the next three to five
years in India
• Also categories with lower monthly penetration levels have strong growth potential provided the category relevance is not decreasing
(e.g., toothpowders and talcum powders where consumers are structurally moving away from the category to higher value-added categories like
toothpaste and deodorants)
• Overall the home and personal care industry has high growth potential because the gap of per capita consumption between India and other
emerging markets are the widest and consumers are becoming more and more self conscious
• Smaller categories like face wash, deodorants, premium skin lightning cream, hand wash and fabric conditioners are seeing explosive growth due
to rising awareness on cleanliness and looking good
13
Industry Analysis
-Global HPC Industry
-Personal Care Industry in India
-Home Care Industry in India
14
Global Home and Personal Care (HPC) Industry
$70
$63 50%
43%
45%
$60
$50 40%
35%
Amount in Billion
$50
$40 $40 30%
$37
$40
$33 23%
25% 20%
$30 20%
$21 $20 15% 10%
$20
10%
4%
$10 5%
0%
$0
Paper Hair Care Baby Care Oral Care Bath & Women's Grooming & Deodrants Hair Care Sun Care Skin Care Colour Fragrances
Products Shower Care Shaving
Cosmetics
Home Care ~$159 billion Others ~$213 billion
$77
$80 60%
$70 51%
Amount in Billion
$60 50%
$50
40% 34%
$40
$30 $20 30%
$17 $14
$20
$9 $9
$10 $5 $4 $4 20% 15%
$0
10%
0%
Sauces, Dressings & Pet Care Consumer Health
Source: Goldman Sachs, Dec 2012
Cond
15
Indian
26%
• The Personal care market in India can be segmented into Skin- 2.8
Care, Hair-Care, Oral-Care including other smaller segments 2.4
Skin Cream Shampoo Toothpaste Baby Oils Deodorants Deodorants Colour Skin Care Hair Care Bath and Oral Care
Cosmetics Shower
Urban Rural
1. Morgan Stanley „India Consumer & Retail‟, Feb 2013
2. Spark Capital “Indian FMCG Sector”, June 2011
16
Personal Care Industry in India (2/3)
Segment Overview
Skin Care - Overview Key Skin Care Companies (2011)
Bath & Shower - Overview Key Bath & Shower Companies (2011)
• The bath and shower market in India includes bar soap, body
wash, shower gel and talcum powder Total Market Size $ ~2.8 billion
• Total Bath and Shower market size is estimated at $2.8 billion ITC Others
4% 15%
• Hindustan Unilever holds 50% market share in the segment Nirma
followed by Godrej Consumer Products with 10% 4%
Wipro HUL
50%
• The segment has grown at a CAGR of 8.7% from 2000-12 8%
Reckitt
Benckiser
9% GCPL
10%
17
Personal Care Industry in India (3/3)
Segment Overview
Hair Care - Overview Key Hair Care Companies (2011)
• The hair-care market in India is estimated at $2.4 billion Total Market Size $ ~2.4 billion
HUL
19%
18
10%
• The home care market in India is estimated at ~$3.8billion Market Size in 2011 : $3.4 Billions
• The household care segment can be further divided into the Market Size in 2006 : $2.5 Billions
2629
following sub-segments:
Air Care, Dish-Washing, Toilet Cleaner, Laundry
Care, Polishes, Insecticide, Surface Care etc. 1730 2006
2011
• This industry segment is a volume driven market with low
margins and is marked with stiff competition 433 609
197 343 260
157
• Laundry care (detergents and bar) dominates the segment and is
marked by high penetration in both Rural and Urban India
Laundry Care Insecticide Dishwashing Others
CAGR 8.73% 7.06% 11.73% 10.62%
Others in 2011 ( in $millions):- AirCare(30), Polishes(57), Surface Care(111), Toilet
Care(62)
Others
59% 19%
HUL
32%
SC Johnson
4%
Godrej
17% 18% 16% 6%
Jyothi
2% 2% 6% Rohit
Nirma Surfactants
6% 10%
Laundry-Detergent Laundary-Bar Dishwashing Floor Cleaner Toilet Cleaner P&G
Reckitt
8%
Urban Penetration Rural Penetration Benckiser
9%
1. Morgan Stanley „India Consumer & Retail‟ , Feb 2013
2. Spark Capital “Indian FMCG Sector”, June 2011
3. Euromonitor “Home Care in India”, Sept. 2012
19
10%
Segment Overview
• Moderate levels
of competition • Intensely
Competitive • Limited • Intensely
• Intensely competitive competitive
Environment Competition competitive
• Limited
Differentiation
• Products suited
• Product being • Developing
for cars are most
Outlook in positioned as • Significant category with
popular and tend
necessity, potential • Mass product modest potential for
inflationary to be least
seeking to opportunity growth expected significant growth
scenario affected in
preserve remains as consumer
inflationary
volumes evolves
environments
• Mass product,
• Low category volume
broad set of
growth in detergents • Mass product with
Opportunity offerings including,
• Niche product • Mass Product • Potential for low current
available coils electric
expansion in ancillary penetration
machines and
products
aerosols
20
Future of the HPC Industry in India
Where is the action going to be?
Entry of New Players in HPC Increasing M&A Activity Rising Interest of Private
Categories Equity Investors
• In the past many international brands • The sector has been witnessing a surge in • Given the overall growth dynamics of the
have entered India and have built very M&A transactions in recent years. We will industry, high margins, good cash flow
successful businesses continue to see both Domestic Acquisitions and low leverage business
as well foreign players entering India via models, FMCG companies continue to be
• There is still a huge opportunity for with M&A route in the next few years very attractive for PE players
reputed Japanese, Chinese, European
and American cosmetic brands with a • Recently the parent company of HUL • The recent investment in CavinKare by
differentiated product positioning to (Unilever Limited) decided to raise its stake ChrysCapital is a testament to the fact of
enter the market in HUL (Indian subsidiary) to 75%. This growing PE interest in the sector. It is
trend can be followed by other global giants believed that ChrysCapital bought a 10%
such as Nestle and Colgate as well, as stake for ~Rs 250 crores, valuing the
growth in their home markets slows down overall business at Rs 2,500 (implied
sales multiple of 2.27x)
“Despite the rich current valuations, the FMCG sector will continue to see an uptick in M&A, Capital Raising
and Indian Entry by foreign companies. Those companies that are able to develop a good brand, a well
spread-out geographical footprint / distribution network & have a reasonable market share will become
HOT targets and will be able to command valuations and terms.”
21
How is the FMCG Industry Trading?
22
Common Stock Comparison (1/2)
USD in Millions
Sales EBITDA Net Income
Company
Share Market
Name 2012 2013 2014E 2012 2013 2014E 2012 2013 2014E
Price Cap Net Debt EV
$8.57 $18,531.74 ($682.51) $17,849.23 $4,226.52 $4,964.95 $5,581.94 $640.49 $773.19 $944.93 $513.09 $704.00 $663.03
14.33 4,875.95 237.05 5,113.01 891.89 1,175.01 1,389.52 155.07 186.65 243.87 133.61 146.37 166.03
2.52 4,391.84 27.43 4,419.27 971.44 1,135.54 1,357.68 162.74 189.34 234.20 118.57 140.78 171.91
25.70 3,495.13 (56.95) 3,438.18 495.18 566.16 674.36 106.37 122.51 148.98 82.09 99.63 114.01
3.91 2,522.69 81.91 2,604.60 736.96 845.05 1,032.92 87.30 115.06 144.61 58.30 72.78 92.90
11.05 1,671.71 (44.34) 1,627.38 267.24 312.40 378.13 51.26 82.62 78.47 47.59 57.87 69.54
4.04 595.81 (62.50) 533.31 86.83 111.55 141.19 21.44 31.72 40.38 22.08 30.55 37.84
7.94 310.16 (24.01) 286.15 60.71 76.54 93.84 14.17 17.98 22.52 12.44 14.89 18.24
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Common Stock Comparison (2/2)
USD in Millions
EBITDA Margin PAT Margin EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E
Company
Name 2012 2013 2014E 2012 2013 2014E 2012 2013 2014E 2012 2013 2014E 2012 2013 2014E
15.15% 15.57% 16.93% 12.14% 14.18% 11.88% 4.22x 3.60x 3.20x 27.87x 23.09x 18.89x 36.12x 26.32x 27.95x
17.39% 15.88% 17.55% 14.98% 12.46% 11.95% 5.73 4.35 3.68 32.97 27.39 20.97 36.49 33.31 29.37
16.75% 16.67% 17.25% 12.21% 12.40% 12.66% 4.55 3.89 3.26 27.16 23.34 18.87 37.04 31.20 25.55
21.48% 21.64% 22.09% 16.58% 17.60% 16.91% 6.94 6.07 5.10 32.32 28.07 23.08 42.58 35.08 30.66
11.85% 13.62% 14.00% 7.91% 8.61% 8.99% 3.53 3.08 2.52 29.84 22.64 18.01 43.27 34.66 27.15
19.18% 26.45% 20.75% 17.81% 18.52% 18.39% 6.09 5.21 4.30 31.75 19.70 20.74 35.13 28.89 24.04
24.69% 28.44% 28.60% 25.43% 27.39% 26.80% 6.14 4.78 3.78 24.88 16.81 13.21 26.99 19.50 15.75
23.35% 23.49% 24.00% 20.50% 19.46% 19.44% 4.71 3.74 3.05 20.19 15.91 12.70 24.93 20.83 17.01
Mean 18.73% 20.22% 20.15% 15.94% 16.33% 15.88% 5.24x 4.34x 3.61x 28.37x 22.12x 18.31x 35.32x 28.72x 24.68x
Median 18.28% 19.16% 19.15% 15.78% 15.89% 14.78% 5.22 4.12 3.47 28.85 22.86 18.88 36.31 30.04 26.35
Maximum 24.69% 28.44% 28.60% 25.43% 27.39% 26.80% 6.94 6.07 5.10 32.97 28.07 23.08 43.27 35.08 30.66
Minimum 11.85% 13.62% 14.00% 7.91% 8.61% 8.99% 3.53 3.08 2.52 20.19 15.91 12.70 24.93 19.50 15.75
Source : Company Filings, Bombay Stock Exchange
* Net Income margin is higher than EBITDA margin due to $6.8million of non-operating income being excluded from EBITDA and included in Net Income
Note : 1. Market Data as of 31st March 2013 2. Exchange Rate USD-INR = 54.38
3. Non- Operating income has been excluded from EBITDA and included in Net Income 4. Exceptional items have not been adjusted
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How Dinodia Capital Advisors can help
Our Offerings
With our deep understanding of the FMCG industry and our professional network, we can help you:
Indentify categories which have high growth opportunities and companies within those
Bring strategic and financial investors to your FMCG business (Domestic and International)
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