International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

ISSN: 1556-8318 (Print) 1556-8334 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ujst20

A research agenda for low carbon mobility: Issues

for ‘new world’ cities

Michelle Philp & Michael A P Taylor

To cite this article: Michelle Philp & Michael A P Taylor (2015): A research agenda for
low carbon mobility: Issues for ‘new world’ cities, International Journal of Sustainable
Transportation, DOI: 10.1080/15568318.2015.1106261

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2015.1106261

Accepted author version posted online: 16

Oct 2015.

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A research agenda for low carbon mobility: Issues for ‘new world’ cities

Michelle Philp and Michael A P Taylor

School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia

Corresponding Author Email: [email protected]

Received 31 March 2014; 21 September 2015; 25 September 2015

Abstract

Low carbon mobility (LCM) features strongly in debates about the sustainability of cities and
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their resilience in the face of demographic, economic and climate change. Transport is a major

source of carbon emissions and there are indications that these continue to increase, despite the

considerable recent advances in vehicle, engine and fuel technologies. Reducing carbon

emissions from transport may become more difficult, not easier. A particular issue relates to the

‘new world’ cities, typified by those of North America and Australasia, which largely developed

from the latter half of the nineteenth century onwards and whose transportation systems were

largely based around private vehicle ownership and usage. These cities are typically composed of

low density, dispersed suburbs, which are highly car dependent and resource and carbon

emission intensive. This paper develops a research agenda directed at determining and testing

policy and planning measures relevant to the quest for low carbon mobility in new world cities.

It suggests a rich agenda for essential research on LCM. Much of this agenda falls within the

realm of the integration of transport and land use, with attention to urban design details to

enhance the perceptions of and opportunities to use low carbon transport alternatives. Research

topics identified for LCM research include: (1) urban design and land use-transport integration

(LUTI), (2) low carbon mobility policies directed at achieving widespread, behaviour change, (3)

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opportunities for new technology and its application, including requirements for systems and

infrastructure, and (4) analysis and tools for informed decision making, including modelling,

measurement, visualisation and especially assessment.

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Introduction – Carbon, transport and urban precincts

Over 80 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions originate in urban areas (Grubler 1994, O’Meara,

1999), which occupy less than 2.4 per cent of the global land mass (Churkina 2008, Potere and

Schneider 2007). The global rate of migration towards cities is three times greater than the rate

of population growth (UN 2006). In 2007, for the first time in human history, more than half of

the world’s population was living in urban settings (UN 2007). Cities have been recognized as
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major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions (International Energy Agency 2008,

Grimm, Faeth and Golubiewski 2008), as well as a critical part of the solution in reducing these

emissions (Chavez and Ramaswami 2011). A particular issue relates to the ‘new world’ cities,

typified by those of North America and Australasia, which largely developed from the latter half

of the nineteenth century onwards and whose transportation systems were largely based around

private vehicle ownership and usage.

By way of example of new world urban development, Australian cities are typically composed of

low density, dispersed suburbs, which are highly car dependent. This is resource and carbon

emission intensive and therefore unsustainable in the long term (Rauland and Newman 2011).

Australia has one of the fastest growing populations for a developed country (Productivity

Commission 2010) and one of the highest per capita carbon and ecological footprints in the

world (Garnaut 2008, Global Footprint Network 2010), with most of the population growth

occurring in the major metropolitan areas such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. There is an

immediate need for Australia to transition its cities to a low carbon alternative with more

efficient form and function with respect to carbon emissions. A low carbon city must improve

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the energy efficiency of its buildings and transport system (Chavez and Ramaswami 2011). A

key aspect of this transition is transportation.

Transportation systems guide our mobility, that is, our ability to move from one place to another

in order to achieve our objectives. Transportation provides access to jobs, education and social

interactions, for example, all of which are fundamental to human development (Donoso,

Martinez and Zegras 2006).

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Urban form can have a significant effect on the carbon intensity of travel, with some urban forms

showing a greater capacity than others to reduce the rate of carbon emissions per capita. Newton

et al (2012) underscore the importance of integrated land use and transport planning for growing

cities, providing examples where transport planning and development planning have happened

independently resulting in reliance on private vehicles or excessive pressure on public transport

services. A major transformation in the way transport planning is carried out is required with a

new approach toward environmental and liveability aspects and a focus on achieving carbon

efficiency in transport and urban precincts (Hickman and Banister 2007).

Beyond reducing carbon emissions, changing the way we undertake urban and transport planning

offers the potential to generate other important long term benefits, such as open space

preservation, improved air quality and public health, and reduced infrastructure investments,

leading to improved quality-of-life in urban areas (Donoso, Martinez and Zegras 2006).

Transport is a major source of carbon emissions in Australia, accounting for about 15.3 per cent

of total GHG emissions in 2010 (DCCEE, 2012), 86 per cent of which came from road transport.

Passenger cars were the largest single source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road

transport. Analysis of the 2010 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory data indicates that urban

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transport accounted for some 73.6 per cent of the total road transport GHG emissions in

Australia, or some 51.3 Mt CO2-e per annum. Private car usage in urban areas was responsible

for 55.5 per cent (39.7 Mt CO2-e p.a.), i.e. 45.3 per cent of total transport GHG emissions and

7.3 per cent of total GHG emissions from all sectors as recorded in the 2010 National

Greenhouse Gas Inventory (DCCEE 2012). Figure 1 shows the contribution of the transport

sector to Australia’s GHG emissions, and the breakdown of the transport emissions into urban
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road transport emissions by vehicle type (PC = passenger car, LCV = light commercial vehicle,

HGV = heavy goods vehicle) and all other transport.

Lenzen and Dey (2003) indicated that about 15 per cent of total household GHG emissions were

attributable to the travel activities of the households. Further, GHG emissions from the transport

sector increased 32 per cent between 1990 and 2010, despite the considerable advances in

vehicle, engine and fuel technologies over that period. Passenger car usage in Australian cities is

thus a significant source of GHG emissions, and one that can be directly related to the shape and

form of the built environment.

Similar findings for other countries emerge from a scan of the international literature (e.g.

Banister et al 2011, Nakamura and Hayashi 2013). One reason for this increase in transport

emissions is the increase in travel that has occurred during the period. Reducing carbon

emissions from the transport sector is becoming more difficult, not easier.

Researching low carbon mobility (LCM)

There is an emerging international consensus that significant research on low carbon mobility

(LCM) is needed, largely because of the complexity of the topic. An optimum blend of

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technological development, infrastructure adjustment, innovative policy developments and

community behaviour change is required. Givoni and Banister (2013) identified three possible

ways to substantially reduce the carbon associated with mobility and transport, either

individually or in combination:

 to change social norms,

 to follow an economic growth model not coupled with transport volumes, and


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to switch to a different transport system.

Each of these areas requires substantial research in its own right, and then the optimum

combination needs to be explored. An initial indication was provided by Bristow et al (2008),

who compared transport policy settings and developments in the UK with the national targets for

carbon reduction to the year 2050. They concluded that even dramatic technological advances

would not meet those targets without considerable behavioural change. Santos, Behrendt and

Teytelboym (2010) considered a wide range of low carbon transport policy options, which they

grouped into three categories:

 physical policies, concerning infrastructure and service provision,

 soft policies, aimed at bringing about behavioural change, and

 knowledge policies, emphasising the role of investment in R&D for future sustainable

mobility.

They argued that policy integration was the key and that optimal blending of mutually

reinforcing policies was essential. Banister (2011) discussed the concept of the sustainable

mobility paradigm, which again required integrated, mutually supporting sets of policies.

Banister and his colleagues then suggested a possible policy framework for LCM systems

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(Banister et al, 2011) but this still required determination of relevant policies sets. A major

question is just what policies should be considered and how the policy settings can be optimised.

Nakamura and Hayashi (2013) reviewed international developments on LCM policies and

strategies and concluded that the specific development processes of individual cities significantly

affected the feasibility and effectiveness of different policies. This suggests that measures

specific to different types of cities and perhaps individual cities are required, hence the need for
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research on how to encourage, facilitate and implement low carbon mobility in the new world

cities in particular.

Vehicle technology and vehicle ownership/access to vehicles, emerge as particular areas of

concern for LCM, both in terms of actual carbon emissions and the propensity of people to use

private motor vehicle transport (e.g. see Brand et al 2013). Policy instruments that affect vehicle

selection and ownership, and vehicle usage are important concerns, especially with regard to

long term impacts (on government revenues in particular) and policy mixes.

Strategies to encourage, facilitate and maintain travel behaviour change are also important and

may take a variety of directions (Taylor 2007, Line, Chatterjee and Lyons 2012) depending on

the community or socio-demographic groups involved. Methods now exist for evaluating the

short to medium term effects of voluntary travel behaviour change programs, and the potential

for success of the programs is gaining better understanding (Zhang, Stopher and Halling 2013).

A particular area of research interest for the CRC is in the potential health co-benefits for LCM,

which is also the subject of international research (e.g. Mindell et al 2011, Mackett 2013).

Physical design of precincts is also recognised as a key area for LCM research, especially in

design for pedestrian movement and cycling to local facilities, and for access to public transport

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services. Dong, Dong and Wang (2011) describe the research issues well, in terms of ‘last mile’

movement, the access or feeder services to main line public transport.

A synthesis of research needs on low carbon mobility

Good planning practices with political will and institutional capability will allow low carbon

mobility to become a reality. To this end the authors undertook a synthesis of research needs to

indicate and map out the needs for LCM research, and to formulate a systematic research agenda
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on this broad topic. The study was part of a scoping research project for the Cooperative

Research Centre for Low Carbon Living (CRCLCL), to assist the centre in determining its

research priorities and program for the period 2014-2019.The synthesis involved reviews of

previous international and local research, and a research workshop designed to capture current

thinking by both researchers and practitioners. The workshop was held in October 2013.

Planning for personal mobility and the required transport infrastructure and service provision to

meet mobility needs is an important component of precinct design in the built environment.

Research issues flagged for the workshop included health co-benefits of active transport modes,

utilisation of electric vehicles, travel behaviour change programs, urban form and land use-

transport interaction, and travel substitution. These issues are best represented under the banner

of mobility, as a significant subset of human activity within the built environment, and so the

research agenda focuses on research needs for LCM with special reference to urban areas. Five

topics were identified for investigation:

 land use-transport integration and urban design,

 LCM policy and behaviour change,

 systems and infrastructure,

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 new technology and new approaches, and

 modelling, measuring and visualising.

The major outcome of the study was thus a research agenda for the area of LCM (Philp and

Taylor 2014), which serves to inform and guide research on planning for low carbon urban

developments and redevelopments where transport dimensions are of importance. The

research agenda includes precinct demand estimation and precinct design, technologies and
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systems for low carbon living, land use-transport interaction in urban design, and voluntary

behaviour change programs1. In addition, a set of research areas spanning the previously

defined research topics was identified.

Identifying Research Synergies

A review of the session summaries allowed several key research areas to be identified across the

research topics of importance in LCM. These areas can be summarised under the following

topics:

 data

 integration

 evaluation

 urban design and planning

 technology, and

 safety.

1
The outcome of the full study was reported to the CRCLCL as Philp and Taylor (2014), which is available for
download at the website, www.lowcarbonlivingcrc.com.au.

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Data

Data issues are a recurrent theme. Reliable data are essential in proving the value of low carbon

transport options, understanding why and how people travel in the manner that they do and

further identifying how to promote increased transition to low carbon transport options. Several

data issues are relevant to furthering research regarding low carbon mobility.

The first data issue relates to data collection. Developing a reliable, standardised method for
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travel data collection, employing a less resource intensive method than current techniques, was

identified as important in the future of LCM research.

Conversely, there is also a requirement to better understand the data that has already been

collected and realise its full potential application. For example, many travel behaviour studies

have been undertaken across Australia. A repository for travel data from these studies would be

useful to many researchers, and more in depth analyses across a wide number of studies may

allow new insight into travel behaviour. Using the data we have to its full capacity would reduce

the burden of new data collection. For instance, most major cities have substantial Household

Travel Survey (HTS) databases which include activity-travel diaries of individuals in

households. These data sets could be subject to more in depth analysis to indicate household

mobility patterns, e.g. as done for trip chaining by Primerano et al (2008). Perhaps even more

importantly, the extensive (longitudinal) data sets collected in evaluations of large scale travel

behaviour change programs, such as the Perth ‘Individual Marketing’ program and the Adelaide

‘Travelsmart’ program (Zhang, Stopher and Halling 2013) contain much in depth data on

personal mobility, attitudes to travel, and individual mobility trends over time, that have never

been fully analysed. In the Adelaide case several waves of data were collected from a survey

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panel over an eight year period. These data include household socio-demographics and travel

behaviour, the latter measured using GPS devices and thus providing a high level of detail and

accuracy about travel. The relationships between personal mobility and the usage of services and

facilities at different locations relative to place of residence could be explored in some detail

using these existing data sets, a most effective and efficient way to gain greater understanding of

behaviour and the opportunities for low carbon mobility policies and programs. This is an
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important area for future research by the CRC.

In addition, new data sources are emerging with the widespread implementation of new

technologies for transport services. For example, ‘smartcard’ fare payment systems for public

transport – as now operating in most of Australia’s capital cities – are providing an ongoing

source of data on public transport usage, collected routinely in the operations of the public

transport system. These data can be made suitable for research and investigation on travel

behaviour and the propensity to use public transport. With suitable research and development the

data can be linked to the socio-demographic and locational characteristics of the card users

(subject to necessary privacy constraints). Opportunities for research on the utility and

application of these data sets for information on access needs to public transport (and hence

precinct design) and on service provision in suburban areas need to be fully explored by the

CRC.

Modern advances in the use of stated preference (SP) methods and discrete choice modelling

(Hensher, Rose and Greene 2005, Rose et al 2008) and the coupling of advanced discrete choice

models with GIS analysis (Meng, Taylor and Scrafton 2015) are providing enhanced

opportunities for the exploration of the factors influencing people’s life style, location and travel

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decisions, the identification of relevant target groups in society (including geographical

locations), and the formulation of policies and plans to suit the needs of and influence specific

groups. Modern SP sampling and data collection methods offer far greater efficiency in new data

collection, and when coupled with advanced choice models offer powerful new tools for

informed policy and planning decisions.

Integration
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The research theme of integration relates to how low carbon mobility can be integrated into

existing infrastructure, behaviour, and policy making. These research areas are discussed below.

Integrating LCM and infrastructure

In order to successfully and efficiently transition to a low carbon transport future it is important

to consider how and where LCT technology can be integrated into existing supporting

infrastructure to improve low carbon mobility. Two examples are provided here from the

literature.

Singh and Strømman (2013) analysed the potential for reducing the global warming potential

from the passenger vehicle transport sector in Norway through the large scale transition to

electric vehicles. The potential benefit was found to be between three and fifteen per cent when

the complete life cycle of the vehicle type was considered. However, as hydropower, a low

carbon energy source, was the primary energy source for electric vehicles (EVs) in Norway, the

benefit was more pronounced. For countries such as Australia electricity used to charge EVs is

predominantly sourced from high carbon sources such as coal, gas or oil, perhaps significantly

reducing the potential benefits of EV transition. In these countries, an important consideration

for the transition towards LCM will be what can be done to integrate EVs with the existing

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infrastructure in order to maximise the potential benefits. Taylor et al (2010) analysed the

potential GHG impacts of EVs in Australia, accounting for the sources of electrical energy (i.e.

power generation technologies) in different states and regions, finding significant differences

across the nation depending on the source of the electrical energy.

Traut et al (2013) provide a second example regarding the interaction between LCM transport

options and infrastructure. Traut at al found one potentially significant limiting factor for any
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significant growth in Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV) numbers in the USA was the ability of

households to charge vehicles at home. Less than half of US vehicles have reliable access to a

dedicated off-street parking space at an owned residence where charging infrastructure could be

installed. This fact is important for two key reasons. Firstly, consumers were found to be less

likely to purchase PEVs if they do not have at home charging. Secondly, off-peak electric load

times take place overnight, so more people charging during the day if they have access at their

workplace will increase pressure on the existing electrical infrastructure.

Considering the best practice methods to allow the integration of LCM options within existing

infrastructure restraints will be important in the transition to a low carbon urban future.

Integrating LCM and travel behaviour

Givoni (2013) states high carbon mobility is more of a social problem than a technological one,

and so technology alone cannot fix it. As such we need to understand how and why people travel

in various ways and what is needed to transition to low carbon mobility options.

Public awareness and perception are two major barriers for the transition to low carbon transport.

Banister (2013) emphasises the need to understand the importance of time and how people want

to use time in travel compared to other activities. Aditjandra, Mulley and Nelson (2013) suggest

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residents have to be well informed of the available opportunities for them to pursue sustainable

travel choices. Hackbarth and Madlener (2013) found that despite the fact that most European

Union countries have implemented programs to accelerate the diffusion of alternative fuel

vehicles, predominantly electric vehicles, German car buyers are still very reluctant toward these

vehicle types. Jensen, Cherchi and Mabit (2013) investigated changes to individual preferences

and attitudes after individuals experienced an EV in their daily life. Whilst the results showed
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that individual preferences do change after exposure to the EV, driving range is a major concern.

One of the key findings of their study was that the concerns individuals had about driving range

were not due to misconceptions, but a true mismatch between the range they thought they

required in their daily life and what the EVs provide.

The future of low carbon mobility relies on determining how we go about breaking down

people’s perceptions, misconceptions and barriers to change.

Furthermore, traditional behavioural framework models may not provide the best fit for

behaviour related to low carbon transport options. Hensher, Greene and Chorus (2013) found

people’s behaviour with respect to decisions surrounding LCM options fit alternative

behavioural framework models better than those traditionally used. Alternative models may

provide a better predictive framework with respect to non-traditional transportation options.

Integrating LCM with policy making

Policy interventions are required in order to achieve a LCM future. The complex nature of the

interaction between transportation and other urban systems, and the life cycle of transport related

infrastructure means that traditional static planning practices may not achieve the desired

outcome for reducing carbon emissions. Ramjerdi and Fearnley (2014) highlight the importance

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of adaptive and flexible policy-making frameworks, favouring methods of dynamic planning

where decisions are made continuously and based on a steady flow of new information. A widely

popular and accepted trend found to increase the success of policy implementation is the

formulation of integrated policy packages, rather than policy measures that are considered and

deployed in isolation (May and Roberts 1995, Banister et al 2000, Feitelson 2003, OECD 2007,

Justen et al 2014a, Justen et al 2014b, Givoni et al 2013, Taeihagh, Bañares-Alcántra and Givoni
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2013). Justen et al. (2014a) supports the use of policy packaging where there is a lack of public

acceptability. For example, they discuss how urban road pricing schemes may be theoretically

effective in encouraging modal shift from private car travel to public transport, but generally

receive significant opposition from motorists. Policy packaging options to reduce opposition to

the scheme could include public transport improvements, or directing revenue from the scheme

to other road improvements.

However, it is not always clear what the ‘correct’ option is and which of methods and tools can

be used for which purpose and at what stage in the process of policymaking (Justen et al 2014b,

Ramjerdi and Fearnley 2014). Whitehead (2013) discussed an example from Stockholm, Sweden

where a congestion charging scheme was introduced with an exemption for low emission

vehicles, in conjunction with the introduction of financial incentives for the purchase of low

emission vehicles.

As the number of low emission vehicles increased, the effectiveness of the congestion reduction

charging was severely diminished. As such, the exemption policy was phased out less than 18

months after being introduced. Ramjerdi and Fearnley (2014) raise several questions with respect

to the uncertainties and risk with transportation policies, including:

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 what are the ‘correct’ sets of policies?

 how should the policies be phased in and out?

 how should the government address the choice among technologies?

 what are the variables/factors that need to be taken into consideration for decision

making?

 what is the right time to take a position on a necessary regulatory framework?

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Taeihagh, Bañares-Alcántra and Givoni (2014) developed a virtual environment for the

exploration and analysis of different configurations of policy measures in order to build and

assess alternative policy packages. Packages such as these and decision support systems are

required to assist policy makers to develop effective policies with respect to low carbon mobility.

Evaluation

A major concern raised throughout the workshop was the current focus on the economic side of

evaluation related to low carbon transport schemes. It was suggested in the workshop that based

on economic merits alone, LCM schemes often do not perform well enough to garner support to

be instituted. This opinion is also supported in current literature. Akyelken (2013) indicated that

the empirical evidence from past transport projects demonstrates how the lack of sustainability

elements in current project appraisal methods requires significant attention, and that the

application of existing assessment methods may yield misleading conclusions for future

developments.

Ramjerdi and Fearnley (2014) summarised the issues associated to taking a purely economic

perspective as being related to trying to distil the complexity of the transport system into

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relatively simple existing economic models, resulting in certain aspects being lost. Often it is the

societal and environmental costs and benefits that get lost in this process.

Recent research in New Zealand has shed some new light on this topic. Wedderburn (2013)

sought to provide decision makers with a robust basis for cost-benefit evaluation of measures to

improve the integration of public transport with walking and cycling. His study reviewed the

available international evidence on access to public transport, including analysis of trip chains
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from the New Zealand Household Travel Survey. This provided indications of the likely impacts

of improved access on mode choice and trip generation. A major output of the study was a

framework for the cost-benefit analysis of integrating public transport with walking and cycling.

Social inclusion and public health are two major benefits that could potentially outweigh the

results of purely economic assessments of low carbon transport schemes. For example, subsidies

for public transport might be disputed from an economic perspective, but may provide social

benefits, such as social inclusion and accessibility that can outweigh the loss of revenue (Justen

et al. 2014a). Active transportation modes such as walking and cycling are widely recognised for

their zero carbon impact and the co-benefits associated with them with regard to public health.

Many studies have investigated the impact of these transportation modes on public health (Giles-

Corti and Donovan 2002, Sallis et al 2004, Wen and Rissel 2008, Woodcock et al 2009,

Hickman 2013 and Philp et al 2015). The task remains to find an effective way to evaluate these

benefits.

Justen et al (2014b) found that monetising benefits for cost benefit analysis, or establishing

impact weightings for multiple criteria analysis, two methods traditionally used in the evaluation

of transport schemes, can be a source of conflictive debate and prove difficult where there is a

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lack of empirical evidence. Lopez-Ruiz et al (2013) attempted to explore the impacts and effects

that different urban measures may have in planning for transportation sustainability on a

European wide level. The major challenge attempted by the study was to clearly identify the

common elements in each planning measure in order to develop a general scoring template that

normalized scores coming from various sources.

GHG emissions are also a relevant externality in the transport sector, especially when evaluating
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LCM schemes. Nocera and Cavallaro (2014) found that feasibility assessments do not always

take these effects into account due to the difficulty and uncertainty in reliably estimating unitary

CO2. Future research needs to consider how to establish a framework for the evaluation of low

carbon mobility plans and furthermore be able to report this in terms of carbon metrics.

Urban Design and Planning

The travel decisions people make have been found to be significantly associated with built

environment factors such as density, location, mix of land uses and precinct design (Hickman

2013). Changes are starting to occur in the structure of cities, as the cities are reaching a limit to

car use growth and there are shifts away from traditional urban culture and economic paradigms

(Newman, Kenworthy and Glazebrook 2013). As such there exists the potential for urban design

and planning to play a major part in establishing a low carbon transport future. This is of especial

concern in the new world cities of Australasia and North America.

Many theories exist regarding the ideal layout for low carbon cities, however there has been

found to be a huge gap between theory and practice (Hickman 2013). The current understanding

is that urban form and layout set the ‘envelope of possibilities’ for travel, and residential layout

and supporting facilities have a complex relationship with resident attitudes, preferences and

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perceptions (Aditjandra, Mulley and Nelson 2013, Hickman 2013). The ‘compact city’ approach

attempts to bring activities closer to residents so that they can fulfil their needs and using low

carbon options such as active travel or public transport (Aditjandra, Mulley and Nelson 2013).

The problem exists in maintaining quality of life and space in high population density

environments, and what options for built environment interventions are available where high

density living is not feasible. Aditjandra, Mulley and Nelson 2013 found that the specific layout
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of towns and cities in a low carbon world was as yet unclear.

Research is required to establish the combination of factors in urban planning that are supportive

of low carbon transport modes and the built environment interventions that are capable of

achieving this in our future city structures.

Technology

Technological improvement of vehicles and the way they are operated is a direct way to reduce

the carbon emissions from the transport sector. However, are these technological advances

enough to negate the continued increase in the volume of vehicles on our roads? Radical

technological and operational innovation is required to increase efficiency, but the improvements

to carbon emissions will be generally limited to the long term due to consumer behaviour, fleet

turnover, physical infrastructure constraints, regulations and long term industry practices (Bishop

2013).

There are two general paths future innovations may take in order to realise a low carbon future:

(1) improvements of current technology focused on meeting current travel demands in alternative

ways, and (2) development of new technology that can change the ways in which future users,

owners and operators behave and value transport activities.

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Safety

Safety is an ongoing issue for all transportation modes. Commonly the move towards a low

carbon transportation future is visualised through zero carbon active transport styles such as

walking or cycling, or with low mass transportation modes such as e-bikes and smart car type

vehicles (Martens 2004, Tight et al 2011, Jones and Azevedo 2013, Jones et al 2013, Luo et al

2015). The safety concerns involved with these mode shifts is often involved with the interaction
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with traditional motor vehicles i.e. cars, truck and buses, where there is traditionally a high mass,

high speed relative to the low carbon alternatives (Wegman, Zhang and Dijkstra 2012, Schepers

et al 2014). Ideally there would exist a physical separation between these mode types, however

this is not always feasible and interactions between the traditional and low carbon transport

options will occur (Luo et al 2015). Effective methods to maintain public safety whilst using low

carbon transportation options is a significant research requirement for the future of LCM and

transportation in cities.

Future Research Priorities

As detailed earlier, the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (DCCEE, 2012) identifies transport

as a major contributor to carbon emissions in Australia, second only to electrical power

generation. Further, as discussed in the introduction, the significance of private car usage in areas

as the source of nearly half (45.3 per cent) of total transport GHG emissions in Australia clearly

indicates the importance of that activity in a carbon emissions reduction strategy2.

2
To reiterate, urban road transport is responsible for 7.3 per cent of Australia’s total GHG emissions from all sectors
as recorded in the 2010 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, with a total transport emissions output of 39.7 Mt CO2-
e p.a.

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The shape and form of our built environment along with lifestyle choices strongly influence the

use of the private car in urban areas. Newton and Newman (2013) addressed this issue in their

consideration of the carbon benefits that can accrue from more compact urban forms where

public and active transport modes can be of most benefit. They considered the need for urban

design innovation in Australia, largely focusing on energy demands in housing and transport, and

available alternative energy technologies and fuel types. The ‘post war’ suburbs, i.e. those areas
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of our cities first developed in the latter half of the twentieth century, which are heavily car

dependent, provide the most challenges in transitioning to lower carbon cities.

Newton and Newman (2013) developed a model framework for low carbon technology

interventions in urban and suburban forms of the built environment, based around the

consideration of appropriate low carbon technologies applied to housing and transport in

suburban and inner urban areas of our cities. This framework is presented in Figure 2 Given the

known trade-off between housing type and location, with resulting impacts on demand for

transport which are largely met at present by the private car for suburban locations, strategies to

reduce the carbon emissions of our cities need to be directed at providing substantial alternatives

to that mode, based around greater use of the active modes and public transport. To make this

direction feasible will require in depth consideration of built form, land use-transport interaction,

land use mixes, the location and intensity for services and facilities and the supporting

infrastructure, and precinct planning and design including the relationships between

neighbouring precincts and between precincts and major activity centres such as the central

business district.

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The Newton-Newman framework identifies key differences in consideration between higher

density urban regions and suburban developments. As such it provides an underlying blueprint

for studies concerned with reduced carbon emissions in Australian cities, and one that is capable

of extension to the new world cities more generally. In a subsequent paper Newton (2014)

stressed the need for urban precinct design assessment tools and clearly defined benchmarks for

low carbon urban developments, noting that variability in housing and transport attributes of
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different suburbs leads to variations in carbon emissions by as much as 50 per cent (see also

Newton et al 2012).

The significant contribution to carbon emissions by private car usage in urban areas suggests that

this is an area of particular scope for carbon reductions, and that precinct planning and design,

with the potential for redevelopment and reorganisation of activity-facility locations could play a

substantial role in this. A set of sensitivity tests were conducted using the data from the 2010

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, supported with other information from Australian

metropolitan travel demand (household travel survey) databases (e.g. BTS 2013), to provide

some broad indications of the potential reductions in carbon emissions from some different

planning initiatives.

An analysis of the 2010 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory data indicated that the average GHG

emission for all travel (driver and passenger) by private car in urban Australia was 212.2 g(CO2-

e)/person-km. Taylor et al (2010) indicated that a generic figure for per capita emissions by

public transport passengers in Australian cities is 124.1 g(CO2-e)/person-km. A ten per cent

switch of person-km by car to public transport could therefore yield a reduction in carbon

emissions of 0.78 Mt CO2-e p.a., based on the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory analysis. A

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more significant impact could be achieved by a reduction in average car trip length, for instance

a ten per cent reduction in car trip length in urban areas could yield a 2.78 Mt CO2-e p.a.

reduction – a more substantial result and one that may be easier to achieve given current travel

preferences (e.g. see McCarney (2013)).

This paper suggests a rich agenda for essential research on LCM. Much of this agenda falls

within the realm of the integration of transport and land use, with attention to urban design
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details to enhance the perceptions of and opportunities to use low carbon transport alternatives.

Research topics identified for LCM research are:

 urban design and land use-transport integration (LUTI)

 low carbon mobility policies and behaviour change

 opportunities for new technology and its application, including requirements for systems

and infrastructure, and

 analytical methods and tools for informed decision making, including modelling,

measurement and assessment, and visualisation.

The following functional areas span these research topics:

 data, with both availability and reliability of relevant data emerging as key concerns

 integration, enabling considerations of LCM in the context of infrastructure, behaviour,

and policy making

 evaluation, with the need to consider how LCM initiatives may be better considered

within existing evaluation frameworks (which may often seem biased towards short term

factors) and the development of new but still rigorous evaluation frameworks

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 urban planning and design, to seek better integration of land use and transport, through

factors including intensity, location and mix of land uses and precinct design, and

considering the potential wider benefits of integration (e.g. in public health and economic

productivity and well as environment)

 technology improvement, including the system wide impacts and consequences of the

adoption of new technology and implications for urban planning and impacts on
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congestion and the environment, and

 safety issues related to the wider adoption of more vulnerable transport modes (e.g.

walking and cycling).

Acknowledgement: the impetus for this study and the research funds to support it were provided

by the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Low Carbon Living

(www.lowcarbonlivingcrc.com.au). The CRC is part of the Australian Government’s ‘Business

Cooperative Research Centres Programme’ administered by the Commonwealth Department of

Industry and Science.

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GHG emissions in Australia (NGGI 2010)

0.9%

1.9%

4.0%
84.7% 15.3%

8.5%
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Non transport sources Urban PC Urban LCV Urban HGV All other transport

Figure 1: Contribution of passenger car usage in urban areas to Australia’s total GHG

emissions (PC = passenger car, LCV = light commercial vehicle, HGV = heavy goods

vehicle), derived from data in DCCEE (2012)

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Housing Transport

 Renewable energy  EVs, hybrid, hydrogen

Suburban technologies for individual vehicles and associated
buildings, e.g. solar PV infrastructure
 Precinct scale technologies  Active transport (walk, cycle)
 Smart buses

Built
Environment  Precinct scale low emission  Public transport
Fabric Urban energy technologies, e.g. co-  Active transport (walk, cycle)
generation, tri-generation  EVs, hybrid, hydrogen
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vehicles and associate

infrastructure

Low/Zero Carbon Technologies

Figure 2: The Newton-Newman model framework for low carbon technology interventions

in urban and suburban forms of the built environment [source: Newton and Newman,

2013]

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