Date of Valuation: Default Assumptions
Date of Valuation: Default Assumptions
Company name Amazon There should be a check against the iteration box. If th
Numbers from your base year below ( in consistent units)
This year Last year
Country of incorporation United States
Industry (US) Retail (General)
Industry (Global) Retail (General) Last 10K Years since last 10K
Revenues $ 208,125.00 $ 177,866.00 0.5
Operating income or EBIT $ 7,385.00 $ 4,106.00 0.5
Interest expense $ 1,239.00 $ 848.00
Book value of equity $ 34,995.00 $ 27,709.00
Book value of debt $ 27,050.00 $ 24,473.00
Do you have R&D expenses to capitalize? Yes If you want to capitalize R&D, you have to input the
Do you have operating lease commitments? Yes If you have operating leases, please enter your lease c
Cash and Marketable Securities $ 27,050.00 $ 30,986.00
Cross holdings and other non-operating assets $ - $ -
Minority interests $ - $ -
Number of shares outstanding = 497.00
Current stock price = $ 1,970.19
Effective tax rate = 20.20%
Marginal tax rate = 24.00%
The value drivers below:
Compounded annual revenue growth rate over next 5 ye 15.00% Growth Lever
Target pre-tax operating margin (EBIT as % of sales in 12.50% Profitability Lever
Year of convergence 5.00 Speed of convergence level
Sales to capital ratio (for computing reinvestment) = 5.95 Efficency of Growth Lever
Market numbers
Riskfree rate 3.00%
Initial cost of capital = 7.97%
Other inputs
Do you have employee options outstanding? No
Number of options outstanding = 21.65
Average strike price = $61.13
Average maturity = 5.97
Standard deviation on stock price = 30.00%
Default assumptions.
In stable growth, I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (riskfree rate + 4.5%)
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Mature companies generally see their risk levels appr
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 = 7.50% Though some sectors, even in stable growth, may hav
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10. I am assuming that whatever competitive
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Mature companies find it difficult to generate returns
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 1 10% But there are significant exceptions among companies
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure over the foreseeable future.
Do you want to override this assumption = No Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they
If yes, enter the probability of failure = 20% Tough to estimate but a key input.
What do you want to tie your proceeds in failure to? V B: Book value of capital, V= Estimated fair value for
Enter the distress proceeds as percentage of book or fair 50% This can be zero, if the assets will be worth nothing if
I will assume that your effective tax rate will adjust to your marginal tax rate by your terminal year. If you override this assumption, I will l
Do you want to override this assumption = No
I will assume that you have no losses carried forward from prior years ( NOL) coming into the valuation. If you have a money losing compa
Do you want to override this assumption = No Check the financial statements.
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into yea $250.00 An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even afte
I will assume that the growth rate in perpetuity will be equal to the risk free rate. This allows for both valuation consistency and prevents "im
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the growth rate in perpetuity 1.00% This can be negative, if you feel the company will dec
I have assumed that none of the cash is trapped (in foreign countries) and that there is no additional tax liability coming due and that cash is a neutral ass
Do you want to override this assumption No
If yes, enter trapped cash (if taxes) or entire balance (if mistru $140,000.00 Cash that is trapped in foreign markets (and subject to add
& Average tax rate of the foreign markets where the cash is t 15% Additional tax rate due on trapped cash or discount being a
run this spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
k against the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
w ( in consistent units)
ze R&D, you have to input the numbers into the R&D worksheet.
ases, please enter your lease commitments in the lease worksheet below and I will convert to debt
Computed numbers: Here is what your company's numbers look like, relative to industry.
If you are not working in US dollars, you should add the inflation differential to the industry averages.
Company Industry (US dat Industry (Global data)
Revenue growth in the most recent year = 36.92% 2.08% 3.69%
Pre-tax operating margin in the most recent year 7.71% 4.21% 4.12%
Sales to capital ratio in most recent year = 5.95 3.67 2.62
Return on invested capital in most recent year= 15.24% 11.90% 8.34%
Standard deviation in stock prices = 49.94% 30.61%
Cost of capital = 6.61% 7.76%
Valuation Output Feedback (for you to use to fine tune your inputs, if you want)
Revenues in year 10, based on your revenue growth = $ 626,134
Pre-tax Operating Income in year 10, based on your operating m $ 78,267
Return on invested capital in year 10, based on your sales/capital 38.18%
Check the Diagnostics worksheet for more details.
mpanies fail, especially if they have trouble raising cash. Many distressed companies fail, because they have trouble making debt payments.
you feel the company will decline (and disappear) after growth is done. If you let it exceed the risk free rate, you are on your own in uncharted territory.
due and that cash is a neutral asset.
eign markets (and subject to additoinal tax) or cash that is being discounted by the market (because of management mistrust)
trapped cash or discount being applied to cash balance because of mistrust.
debt payments.
own in uncharted territory.
Base year 1 2 3 4 5
Revenue growth rate 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00%
Revenues ### ### ### ### ### ###
EBIT (Operating) mar 7.71% 8.67% 9.63% 10.59% 11.54% 12.50%
EBIT (Operating inc $16,053.98 $20,753.26 $26,501.10 $33,506.35 $42,016.89 $52,326.71
Tax rate 20.20% 20.20% 20.20% 20.20% 20.20% 20.20%
EBIT(1-t) $12,810.28 $16,560.07 $21,146.57 $26,736.41 $33,527.41 $41,754.13
- Reinvestment $ 5,249.25 $ 6,036.64 $ 6,942.13 $ 7,983.45 $ 9,180.97
FCFF $11,310.82 $15,109.93 $19,794.28 $25,543.95 $32,573.16
NOL $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Implied variables
Sales to capital ratio 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95
Invested capital $ 84,043 $ 89,292 $ 95,329 $ 102,271 $ 110,254 $ 119,435
ROIC 15.24% 18.55% 22.18% 26.14% 30.41% 34.96%
6 7 8 9 10 Terminal year Check these revenues against
12.60% 10.20% 7.80% 5.40% 3.00% 3.00% a. Overall market size
### ### ### ### ### ### b. Largest companies in this market
12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50%
$58,919.88 $64,929.71 $69,994.23 $73,773.91 $75,987.13 $78,266.74 $ 62,212.76 This is is how much your
grew over the ten-year p
20.96% 21.72% 22.48% 23.24% 24.00% 24.00%
$46,567.95 $50,825.05 $54,258.14 $56,628.13 $57,750.22 $59,482.73
$ 8,868.82 $ 8,084.14 $ 6,812.55 $ 5,084.26 $ 2,977.12 $17,844.82 $ 85,064.15 This is how much capita
invested over the ten ye
$37,699.13 $42,740.91 $47,445.59 $51,543.87 $54,773.10 $41,637.91
$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
After year 10
5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95
$ 128,304 $ 136,388 $ 143,201 $ 148,285 $ 151,262
36.30% 37.27% 37.89% 38.19% 38.18% 10.00%
10 against
orksheet)
lower (raise) your sales to capital ratio
10 against
orksheet)
The Assumptions
Base year Years 1-5 Years 6-10 After year 10
Revenues (a) $ 208,125 15.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Link to story
Expanding into new businessses
Economies of scale and pricing
power increase margins
Converging on a global tax rate oTie each assumption to the part of your story
Big payoffs from investing in that relates to it.
technology and content
The last man standing…
Low debt & diverse business mix
FCFF
$ 11,311
$ 15,110
These are the numbers that come from your
$ 19,794
assumptions. The revenues over time reflect
$ 25,544 your revenue growth, the operating margins
$ 32,573 evolve towards your target margin and your tax
$ 37,699 rate will change, if you have set it to. The
$ 42,741 reinvestment is estimated using the sales to
$ 47,446 capital ratio for the first 10 years and based on
a reinvestment rate in stable growth (g/ ROC).
$ 51,544
$ 54,773
$ 41,638
$1,970.19
64.56%
Revenue Pre-Tax Pre-Tax After-Tax
Year Revenues Growth Operating Operating NOL Taxes Operating
Rate Margin Income Income
Traling 12 mo ### 7.71% $ 16,053.98 $ - $ 3,243.70 $ 12,810.28
1 ### 15.00% 8.67% $ 20,753.26 $ - $ 4,193.18 $ 16,560.07
2 ### 15.00% 9.63% $ 26,501.10 $ - $ 5,354.53 $ 21,146.57
3 ### 15.00% 10.59% $ 33,506.35 $ - $ 6,769.94 $ 26,736.41
4 ### 15.00% 11.54% $ 42,016.89 $ - $ 8,489.49 $ 33,527.41
5 ### 15.00% 12.50% $ 52,326.71 $ - $ 10,572.58 $ 41,754.13
6 ### 12.60% 12.50% $ 58,919.88 $ - $ 12,351.94 $ 46,567.95
7 ### 10.20% 12.50% $ 64,929.71 $ - $ 14,104.66 $ 50,825.05
8 ### 7.80% 12.50% $ 69,994.23 $ - $ 15,736.08 $ 54,258.14
9 ### 5.40% 12.50% $ 73,773.91 $ - $ 17,145.79 $ 56,628.13
10 ### 3.00% 12.50% $ 75,987.13 $ - $ 18,236.91 $ 57,750.22
Pre-Tax After-Tax
Year Beta Cost of Cost of Tax Savings Cost of Debt Ratio Cost of
Equity Capital
Debt Debt
1 7.97%
2 7.97%
3 7.97%
4 7.97%
5 7.97%
6 7.88%
7 7.78%
8 7.69%
9 7.59%
10 7.50%
Cumulated
Year Cost of Cost of FCFF Terminal Present
Capital Value Value
Capital
1 7.97% 1.0797 $ 11,310.82 $ 10,475.89
2 7.97% 1.1658 $ 15,109.93 $ 12,961.53
3 7.97% 1.2587 $ 19,794.28 $ 15,726.44
4 7.97% 1.3590 $ 25,543.95 $ 18,796.44
5 7.97% 1.4673 $ 32,573.16 $ 22,199.56
6 7.88% 1.5829 $ 37,699.13 $ 23,817.21
7 7.78% 1.7060 $ 42,740.91 $ 25,052.85
8 7.69% 1.8372 $ 47,445.59 $ 25,825.10
9 7.59% 1.9767 $ 51,543.87 $ 26,075.64
10 7.50% 2.1250 $ 54,773.10 $925,286.85 $461,213.74
Value of operating assets = $642,144.42
Valuing Options or Warrants
Enter the current stock price = $ 1,970.19
Enter the strike price on the option = $ 61.13
Enter the expiration of the option = 5.97
Enter the standard deviation in stock pr 30.00% (volatility)
Enter the annualized dividend yield on 0.00%
Enter the treasury bond rate = 3.00%
Enter the number of warrants (options) 21.65
Enter the number of shares outstanding 497.00
d1 = 5.34715115
N (d1) = 1
d2 = 4.61414365
N (d2) = 0.99999803
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expenses 2 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = ### The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 16085.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 12540.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 22620.00 1.00 22620.00
-1 16085.00 0.50 8042.50 $ 8,042.50
-2 12540.00 0.00 0.00 $ 6,270.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Research Asset = $30,662.50 ###
Adjustment to Operating Income = $8,307.50 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to reported EBIT)
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $1,994
adjustments to operating income, net
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 4.13% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the synthetic rating estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 esti 5 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year CommitmentPresent Value
1 $ 2,427.00 $ 2,330.74
2 $ 2,376.00 $ 2,191.26
3 $ 2,258.00 $ 1,999.84
4 $ 2,039.00 $ 1,734.26
5 $ 1,813.00 $ 1,480.88
6 and beyond $ 2,387.00 $ 8,648.22 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = ###
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $ 1,838.52 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $361.48 ! Add this amount to pre-tax operating income
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = ### ! Add this amount to debt
Adjustment to Depreciation = $1,838.52
em.
Debt
Book Value of Straight Debt = $ 27,050.00
Interest Expense on Debt = $ 1,239.00
Average Maturity = 3
Approach for estimating pre-tax cost of debt Synthetic rating
If direct input, input the pre-tax cost of debt 3.500%
If actual rating, input the rating Aa2/AA
If synethetic rating, input the type of compan 1
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 4.13%
Tax Rate = 24%
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = ###
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $ -
Value of Debt in Operating leases = ###
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $ -
Levered Beta for equity = 0.98
Equity Debt Preferred Stock Capital
Market Value $ 979,184.43 ### $ - ###
Weight in Cost of Capital 95.53% 4.47% 0.00% 100.00%
Cost of Component 8.20% 3.14% 7.14% 7.97%
Operating Countries ERP calculator
Country Revenues ERP Weight Weighted ERP
United States of Amer 120486 5.08% 67.74% 3.44%
Germany 16951 5.08% 9.53% 0.48%
United Kingdom 11372 5.65% 6.39% 0.36% The last two rows in each of country/reg
is set aside for your input to provide you
Japan 11907 5.89% 6.69% 0.39% some numbers directly. For instance, a
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% company that breaks its revenues down
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% then puts the rest into "Rest of the Wo
"Rest of the World" in one of these t
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% equity risk premium for the rest of the w
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% do that is to go into the country equity r
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% and change the GDP for the three coun
for to zero and compute the global wei
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% the remaining countries. With the regio
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% use the last two rows to enter the data f
(usually the domestic country) that mig
0.00% 0.00%
the rest of the revenues are broken dow
Rest of the World 17150 6.21% 9.64% 0.60% look up the ERP for the country in the c
Total 177866 100.00% 5.28%
Operating Regions ERP calculator
Region Revenues ERP Weight Weighted ERP
Africa & Mid East 0 8.11% 0.00% 0.0000%
Australia, NZ & Cana 7440 5.08% 7.34% 0.3732%
Latin America & Caribbean 8.75% 0.00% 0.0000%
Japan 0 5.89% 0.00% 0.0000%
US 0 5.08% 0.00% 0.0000%
Europe 6.01% 0.00% 0.0000%
Emerging Markets 0 7.14% 0.00% 0.0000%
Small Asia (No India, 93864 6.93% 92.66% 6.4177%
North America 5.08% 0.00% 0.0000%
0.00% 0.0000%
0.00% 0.0000%
Total 101304 100.00% 6.7909%
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com
For large manufacturing firms
If interest coverage ratio is
> ≤ to Rating is Spread is
-100000 0.199999 D2/D 18.60%
0.2 0.649999 Caa/CCC 13.95%
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 10.63%
0.8 1.249999 C2/C 8.64%
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 4.37%
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 3.57%
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 2.98%
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 2.38%
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 1.98%
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 1.27%
3 4.249999 A3/A- 1.13%
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 0.99%
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 0.90%
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 0.72%
8.50 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.54%
$75,872.00
$2,404.00
$24,171.00
$276.00
ailing 12 month
Yes/No Book or Market ValuERP choices Cost of debt Synthetic rati Beta
Yes B Will input Direct input 1 Direct input
No V Country of incorporatioSynthetic rati 2 Single Business(US)
Operating countries Actual rating Single Business(Global)
Operating regions Multibusiness(US)
Multibusiness(Global)