FOREST ANALYSIS

Research Report
Presented by
Aarju Kumari (01) Nadeem Akhter (40)
Amal Jain (07) Slokarani Patel (67)
Aniket Swayam Subudhi (84)
Gaurab Biswas (25) Yash Parashrampuria (81)

QM-503
ASSIGNMENT
 Contents
Ra onale of Study-.................................................................................................................................. 2
Objec ves- .............................................................................................................................................. 5
Review of Literature- ..............................................................................................................................6
Research Design- ..................................................................................................................................... 9
Data Collec on and Sources- ................................................................................................................ 11
Analysis- ................................................................................................................................................ 12
Finding and Conclusion- ........................................................................................................................15
References- ........................................................................................................................................... 16

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 Rationale of Study-

Forests are the lungs of the environment. They pump huge amounts of oxygen in the
atmosphere which forms the basic need of almost all living forms on the earth. These forests
are depleting day-by-day with an alarming rate. Human intervention is causing degradation and
depletion of forests in many ways. Globally, every twenty minutes 1200 acres of forest are
destroyed. Forest degradation is characterized by a reduction in forest quality and biomass by
an opening up of the canopy. Change detection is the process of identifying change in the state
of an object or phenomenon by observing it at different times.

It is extremely essential to monitor forest cover changes and find remedial measures to control
deforestation after studying the reasons for forest cover depletion. Hence, detecting
deforestation and other types of Land Cover Change (LLC) and determining factors
contributing to it are important, as this could be a first step in controlling forest loss and is
necessary in comprehensive forest management planning and formulation of appropriate forest
policy.

Forest cover in hilly terrain is important from the ecological considerations. Recognizing this
fact, the National Forest Policy (1988) aims at maintaining two thirds of the geographical area
in hills of the country under forest and tree cover.

Deforestation:

Permanent removal of trees to make room for something besides forest. This can include
clearing the land for agriculture or grazing, or using the timber for fuel, construction or
manufacturing.

Reasons:

• Population
• Mining activities
• Road construction
• Natural Disasters
• Industrialisation

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 • Farming
• Grazing
• Production / Raw Materials
• Pollution
• Urbanization

Effects of deforestation:

• Loss of flora and fauna

• Global warming
• Greenhouse effects
• Landslides in high altitude areas
• Soil erosion
• Deregulation of water cycle
• Flooding
• Destruction of homelands

A rational incorporation of the research findings of scientific institutions into forest practice
significantly increases the health condition and resistance of forest stands, the stability and
sustainability of forest ecosystems and contributed to the conservation of forest
biodiversity.

A modern forest habitat classification system developed in the framework of these studies
is also of primary significance for the success of economic activities in forestry and for the
protection of valuable habitats. The studies enriched with the elements of forest genetics
and genetic engineering lead to, inter alia, the development of the rules of seed stand
selection, rules of seed and cone classification, as well as industry standards.

Nature conservation studies are exceptionally important today for the monitoring of natural
resources and determining the impact of forestry management on the size of these
resources, as well as for the development of the methods of protecting the existing
resources, while conducting forestry management. They also provide a scientific
framework for the restoration and reintroduction of endangered forest species. Forest
monitoring currently developed on the basis of a network of permanent observation plots

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(POPs), as well as studies related to carbon dioxide sequestration and forestry management
carried out by research institutions are of great practical significance for forestry.

Recent experiences and practice indicate the need to intensify the development of forest
sciences and forest knowledge by undertaking new long-term basic studies, particularly
those pertaining to the natural basis of forestry. Looking prospectively into the future of
the development of forest sciences, the focus should also be put on finding the ways of
using the achievements of all sciences for the conservation and shaping of forest
ecosystems in line with the current and future needs and scientific achievements in the
world.

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 Objectives-

The aim of this project is to study the trends in loss of forest cover and analyse spatially the
change in the forest cover in the study area.

The main objectives of this analysis are-

• To find the causal relationship between loss of forests due to the increase in population,
coal mined over the years and the increase in the length of roads from 1990 to 2016 in
India.
• To find how the forest covers are decreasing over time.
• To find the trends of the effect of independent variables.

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 Review of Literature-

1. Plantation Forestry in India, 2006

Presented by- Luna R.K

This articles describes the development of forestry in India. It also states the influence of forests
on climate. It also includes the aspects of planting, seed nursery, forest protection, waste land
and irrigated land, types of forest in India, environmental planning etc.

2. Fuelwood consumption and participation in community forestry in India, 2004

Presented by- Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay

This articles is all about a survey done on 524 villages in five states of India and analyzing the
sample survey data to fulfill the gap in community forestry. Management of forest is an
important issue for which decentralization is necessary keeping in mind the community
forestry. So the main objective of this article is to ensure who participates in community
forestry and how the participations impacts household fuel consumption.

3. Agro forestry in India, 2002

Presented by- KG Tejwani

This article present the traditional aspect of agro forestry in India. And how the social,
economic and agro ecological conditions affects the forestry. This agro forestry is well
practiced by farmers, graziers and forests dwellers which is viable and sustainable for the
environment. After introduction of ICRAF in 1978, the importance of this sector increased and
higher attention was paid.

4. Sustainable forest management

Presented by – Tajbar S. Rawat

This articles describes the approaches for sustainability on a pilot basis since 2002. This was
known as Bhopal- India process, which helped in achieving the goal for sustainability of
forestry. This explains how Forests enhance the quality of life by providing economical, socio-
cultural benefits to the community. The main aim of this article is achieving the goal of

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sustainability through capacity building with the help of forest resources keeping in mind the
present situation.

5. Conservation and management of tropical rainforests: an integrated approach to

sustainability, 2016

Presented by- Cabi

This articles is overview of the tropical rainforests, i.e. their conservation, management, etc. it
provides a great knowledge to one who studies about this rainforests. Issues such as biofuels,
carbon credits in respect to these forest and the inhabitant of these forest are mentioned. The
main focus is on south East Asian forest.

6. Long term response of forest productivity to climate change is mostly driven by change
in tree species composition, 2018

Presented by- Lorenz Fahse

This articles describes the effects of climate change on the functions of ecosystems. It also tells
the indirect impact of climate change on ecosystem on different species of plants community.
Same approach is used for analyzing the direct and indirect impact. Here the variables like
warmer conditions and drier conditions are taken which affects the diversity of trees.

7. Forest biomass Sustainability and availability, 2011

Presented by- K.E. Skog and J. A. Stanurf

This article is based on the supply of biomass for sustainable development of forest.
Sustainability here refers to use of resources without hampering the natural resources. It also
refers to maintenance of water supply, balance in biodiversity, carbon storage, etc. this also
focus on community development. This depends upon various conditions such as forest
condition, soil, biodiversity etc. it gives the benefit of understanding biological and ecological
limitations.

8. A quantitative Index of Forest Structural Sustainability, 2014

Presented by- Jonathan A. Cale

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This article tells the concept of the functions of the health of the forest i.e. ecosystem,
interactions, and values. The objective of this article is to find out the tree mortality with respect
to stability and composition of the forest. It also studies the gap between stable and unstable
forests. This approach provides base for making management decisions and rational decisions
and analysis of the changes in the structure and composition of the forest.

9. Forest sector sustainability communication in Europe: A systematic literature review

on the contents and gaps, 2017

Presented by- Anne Toppinen

The main purpose of this research is to find out the current condition of forest in enhancing
sustainability of the forest sector. So it was find out that the gap shows there is more need for
theoretical and empirical work on forest communication needs and image building.

10. Assessing Fire Risk in Forest Ranges of Guntur District, Andhra Pradesh: using
Integrated Remote Sensing and GIS 2012

Presented by- Srinivas K. Ravi Kumar

This articles main purpose is to study the area of Guntur District of Andhra Pradesh which are
affected by human activities and some natural causes which results in forest degradation. The
most important part is to understand the natural region for better management of natural
resources. Fire risk was more in this region. Therefore this research aim was to find out the fire
occurrence region the main reason of it by using remote sensing data and GIS. The variables
taken are slope, roads, villages, density. So that the risk associated with fire can be known and
preventive measures can be taken to avoid such dangers.

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 Research Design-

Objective:

To find the causal relationship between loss of forest due to increase in population, coal mines
& length of roads.

Type of Data:

The data we have chosen are continuous in nature as loss of forest has been taken as area per
hectare, population as in billion, coal mines as Million Ton & the length of roads in km.

• Dependent variable-

Loss of Primary Forest Area (Hectares)

• Independent variables-

Population

Coal mined (Million Tons)

Length of Roads (Kilometers)

As we want to conduct an analysis to find the relationship between these dependent &
independent variables mentioned above.

Definition of Population & Sample:

The population & sample taken is of the primary forest area available in India. Primary forest
area means a forest that has attained great age without any significant external disturbance &
there by showcases unique ecological features. The forest area is represented by hectare. Also
the time period through which distribution of data recorded is from 1990 to 2015.

Data Analysis:

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Methodology: We used the “Linear Regression” method to calculate the relationship between
these variables. Because, as both the dependent & independent variables are continuous in
nature.

Probable Outcomes:

Whether increase in population, coal mines & length of roads are affecting the forest area in
India. These three are affecting huge in the loss of forest & this scenario is increasing day by
day.

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 Data Collection and Sources-
• ceicdata.com

• data.worldbank.org

• rainforest.mongabay.com

• data.gov.in

The data has been collected from these sources because these are the most reliable sources of
data present online which are accessible to the public at large. The World Bank data site and
the Government data sites are one of the most reliable sources for data collection.

As all data sources were of secondary means, the official government data sites are always
considered to be the most accurate and hence, are preferred.

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 Analysis-

R square- 72.51% variation in dependent variable is explained by the independent variable or

the regression model.

Regression Summary

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.851569727
R Square 0.725171
Adjusted R
Square 0.687694318
Standard
Error 3102.380837
Observations 26

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
186238521. 19.3499254
Regression 3 558715563.2 1 4 0.00
9624766.85
Residual 22 211744870.9 8
Total 25 770460434

P value is 0.00. So, we can say that our null hypothesis (i.e. our independent variables doesn’t
have any significance impact over the dependent variables) is rejected and alternate hypothesis
is accepted (i.e. our independent variables have a significant impact on the dependent variables.
When P value is low, null hypothesis is rejected and when P value is high, null hypothesis is
accepted.

Here, significance F is 0.00. As we know, our model is fit, when it is less than 0.05. So, we can
conclude that our model is good.

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COEFFICIENT

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept -27552.93 14788.53568 -1.863127349 0.08
Population 0.50 2.56726E-05 2.164557786 0.04
Coal Mined
(Mil ton) 0.09 0.062276858 1.48371392 0.15
Length of
roads (km) 0.21 0.004886665 -2.033392551 0.05

The coefficients whose P value is less than or equal to 0.05, then only it will be included in the
model. Here, we have 3 variables namely population, coal mine and length of the road but only
two of them have a P value of less than or equal to 0.05 and one has a P value of 0.15.

One-unit change in population will lead to 0.50 unit increase in the loss of forest i.e., dependent
variable.

One-unit change in coal mined will lead to 0.09 unit increase in the loss of forest i.e., dependent
variable.

One-unit change in length of road will lead to 0.21 unit increase in the loss of forest i.e.,
dependent variable.

Relationship between Population & Loss of primary forest area:

Popula on Line Fit Plot

Loss of Primary forest area

40000
30000 Loss of Primary
(hectares)

20000 forest area

(hectares)
10000
Predicted Loss of
0
Primary forest area
0 2E+09
(hectares)
Popula on

The above graph depicts the relationship between Population and Loss of primary forest. We
can see that in most observations, actual value is equal to the predicted value

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Relationship between coal mine and loss of primary forest:

Coal Mined (Mil ton) Line Fit

Loss of Primary forest area

Plot
40000
(hectares)

Loss of Primary
20000 forest area
(hectares)
0
Predicted Loss of
0 200000 Primary forest area
Coal Mined (Mil ton) (hectares)

The above graph depicts the relationship between coal mined and loss of primary forest. We
can see that the actual and predicted value don’t have much significant difference.

TREND LINE OF LOSS OF PRIMARY FOREST:

CHANGE IN LOSS OF FOREST

35000

30000

25000
LOSS OF FOREST

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
2010
2011
2012
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

2013
2014
2015

YEARS

In the above graph, we can depict that from the year 1990 to 2001, there was no significant
change but from year 2002 onwards it started increasing tremendously. Between the year 2004-
2005 the graph was pretty consistent and then increased gradually. In the year 2007, it fell and
from the year 2009, it started increasing and ultimately it kept on increasing from the year
2013.

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 Finding and Conclusion-

From the data collected and after the analysis we can say that our model is fit. Since, the R^2
value is 0.7251 that clearly means the independent variables have a significant impact on the
dependent variables by 72.51%.

We found that null hypothesis is rejected, and alternative hypothesis is accepted as significance
F is less than 0.05 which is 0.00 in our case. According to the statisticians, if the significance
F is less than 0.05 we can conclude that model is fit.

In the analysis we can see that the coefficient that have an impact over the dependent variables
are population and length of road because they are less than or equal to 0.05, and coal mining
having less impact than the other two as its P-value is 0.15.

Hence, we can say that the forest area is affected from the taken independent variables which
are population, Coal mines and length of the roads.

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 References-

Websites-

• ceicdata.com
• data.worldbank.org
• rainforest.mongabay.com
• data.gov.in
• scholar.Google.com
• jgate.com

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