MODULE 2 - Introduction To Measuring FDFI
MODULE 2 - Introduction To Measuring FDFI
Managing Risk
Easing Transactions
The financial system provides payment services that ease the exchange of
goods and services.
In the rest of this module, we will first focus on financial depth and
efficiency, which are traditional measures of financial development.
The aim of Activity 1.1 is to know how to use the global financial
development database. To do it, you will have to answer two questions by
using the last version of the GFDD data set that you can download from the
website of the Financial Development Report using the link in Step 1 of
Activity 1.1.
The first question is to find the value of two indicators, private credit
to GDP and stock market capitalization to GDP for two countries,
namely Germany and the US, in 2016.
The second question is to compare the indicators for Germany and US
and characterize the financial system in both countries by saying if
they are bank based or market oriented.
I'm supposing here that you have already downloaded the GFDD database
on your computer. To answer the first question, please open the Excel file,
July 2018 GFDD database and click on the top Definition and Sources.
Use the Find and Select option and search for private credit by deposit
money banks to GDP.
You will find that the indicator private credit deposit money banks to
GDP it associated with the code GFDD.DI.01
Then, go to the tab Data July 2018 and use again the Find and Select
option and search for code GFDDDI01.
You will find that the code GFDDDI01 is associated with the column
AV.
Use the Filter function to select the appropriate year and country.
Select 2016 for year, and Germany for country.
You will find the value of the private credit deposit money banks to
GDP in 2016 for Germany in line 4,118 and column AV.
And it corresponds to 75.78%.
By using the same procedure, we find that the private credit to GDP in
the USA is 51.8%.
The stock market capitalization to GDP in Germany is 49.05%. And the stock
market capitalization to GDP in the USA is 141.28%.
Let's now answer the second question of the type of financial system. We
can say that the size of the banking sector in Germany measured by private
trade to GDP is almost 50% bigger than the US. We can also say that the
size of the stock market in the US measured by the stock market
capitalization to GDP is almost three times bigger than Germany.
With regard to financial depth, the measure used most often in the finance
and growth literature is private credit to GDP.
Private credit to GDP is defined as domestic private credit by deposit money
banks (which includes commercial banks and other financial institutions that
accept deposits) divided by nominal GDP. The ratio excludes credit issued to
the public sector and by central banks.
Based on the table below, which region has the deepest banking sector
(based on average)? What region has the shallowest banking sector?
Private Credit in the Finance/Growth Literature
As you learned from the previous activity, high-income OECD regions have
the deepest banking sectors, and sub-Saharan Africa has the shallowest
banking sector. You may now be wondering...
Legal tradition
To develop the banking sector further, the country must have a well-
functioning legal and regulatory system, with well-protected property
rights, good accounting practices, good contract enforcement, and
protected creditor and shareholder rights
Quality of institutions
Financial systems must be well regulated and supervised in order to
maintain confidence in the system and allocate financial resources to
the most productive investments. Therefore, institutions that
effectively regulate and supervise their financial systems will certainly
help promote banking sector development.
Capital account openness
Klein and Olivei (2001) point out that, by opening capital accounts,
“subsidiaries or branches of foreign banks can enlarge the domestic
banking system, serve formerly neglected market niches, and
introduce financial innovation that broadens the scope of financial
services.” Furthermore, Chinn and Ito (2005) note that removing
capital controls would allow domestic and foreign investors to engage
in portfolio diversification. Capital cost would thereby be reduced,
making it increasingly available to borrowers. Empirical studies show
that some preconditions must be met in order for capital account
liberalization to impact bank development positively: a stable
macroeconomic environment, good quality institutions, and an
effective regulatory system.
Trade openness
By expanding opportunities and increasing competition, trade
openness contributes to financial sector development.
IS A HIGH VALUE OF PRIVATE CREDIT TO GDP PRODUCTIVE?
We must note that there is a large proportion of literature demonstrating
that financial development measured by private credit to GDP helps promote
economic development (Levine, 2005). These results have encouraged
countries to increase the sizes (depths) of their financial systems to boost
economic growth. The deeper the banking sector, the better the economy.
However, the 2008 global financial crisis has challenged these policies. And
more recently, Arcand et al. (2012) reexamined the financial depth and
growth nexus using more recent data and a nonlinear approach (to test
whether there is a threshold above which financial development no longer
has a positive effect on economic growth). Their results suggest that finance
begins negatively affecting output growth when credit to the private sector
reaches 100 percent of GDP.
There are other measures of banking sector depth besides private credit to
GDP. The GFDD provides three alternative banking sector measures besides
private credit to GDP:
1. Deposit money banks’ assets to GDP. The assets include claims on the
domestic real nonfinancial sector. The domestic real nonfinancial sector
contains central, state, and local governments, nonfinancial public
enterprises, and private sectors. This measure is generally considered more
comprehensive than private credit to GDP, as it includes not only credit to
private sector, but also credit to government.
2. Banking system liquid liabilities to GDP. Liquid liabilities are also
known as broad money or M3. Banking system liquid liabilities (M3) are the
sum of currency and deposits in the central bank (=M0), plus transferable
deposits and electronic currency (=M1), plus time and savings deposits,
foreign currency transferable deposits, certificates of deposit, and
repurchase agreements (=M2), plus travelers checks, foreign currency time
deposits, commercial paper, and shares of mutual funds or market funds
held by residents (=M3).
The measures of banking sector depth described so far have been widely
used to study the impact of financial development on economic growth and
inequality.
What exactly is the relationship between banking sector deepening and
inequality?
Income inequality is measured by the Gini coefficient, which is a relative
ratio of the areas on the Lorenz curve diagram. It is scaled from 0 to the
100th percentile. Zero percent represents a perfectly equal economy, in
which everyone has the same income level. One hundred percent represents
an extremely unequal economy, where one person receives all the income.
As you will see in the following figure, a higher level of financial depth is
associated with a decline in inequality.
Nonbanking Measures of Financial Depth
The GFDD also offers a vast array of nonbanking financial depth measures.
We can split the measures into two categories: the ones related to
nonbanking financial institutions and the ones related to capital
markets.
Let us put all of this into practice! The table below measures the size of the
financial market relative to the economy
The difference between the lending rate and deposit rate. The lending rate is
charged by banks on loans to private sectors.The deposit rate is offered by
commercial banks on three-month deposits. The higher this
indicator,thehigher the cost of banking intermediation. It is very close to the
NIM indicator.
Measures the operating cost incurred for each dollar of assets. A higher ratio
indicates higher expenses and lower efficiency.
In this video, let's review the main factors that impact net interest margin.
Let's start by the factor impacting negatively on the net interest margin.
Banking sector concentration, which is the share of assets of the three
largest banks, is significantly correlated with a smaller net interest margin.
Let us turn to the factors impacting positively on the net interest margin.
Overhead costs which are the average value of a bank's overhead cost as a
share of its total assets is found to be positively associated with net interest
margin, reflecting that banks tend to pass this cost onto their clients.
Credit risk, which is the share of NPL's provision is positively associated with
net interest margin, confirming that banks charge additional risk premium to
compensate for exposed credit risk, which is also consistent with previous
findings.
PROFITABILITY INDICATORS
As previously mentioned, profitability measures are also included in the
measures of efficiency. Click on each indicator for a more detailed
description
Bank return on assets after tax - Measures the commercial banks’ after-
tax incomes to yearly averaged total assets
Bank return on equity after tax- Measures the commercial banks’ after-
tax net incomes to yearly averaged equity.
Considering this, you may conclude that profitability is not a good proxy for
efficiency. A bank could be inefficient in good times, though still profitable.
The bank might oblige its customers to compensate for its higher operating
costs by imposing higher lending rates when the economy is booming, while
benefiting from higher revenues. In bad times, even if the bank is operating
at lower cost, reduced intermediation activity could lower bank revenue
below its operating costs.
Higher turnover means more market liquidity, which, in turn, allows the
market to be more efficient. Investopedia defines a stock market as liquid
when “its shares can be quickly bought and sold, and the trade has little
impact on the stock's price.”
Čihák et al. (2012) discuss other efficiency measures without including them
in the GFDD. Below are the two most important ones. Click to learn more.
Bid-ask spread
Difference between the highest price that a buyer is willing to pay for an
asset and lowest price that a seller is willing to accept.
The lower the spread the more liquid is the market and lower is the cost of
transacting in the market (higher efficiency).
It is based on the daily return data of the listed stocks, and helps to
determine barriers to efficiency in the market
The table below summarizes the results for the stock market turnover ratio
by region and income level. It shows a wide dispersion of stock market
turnover across countries and regions, as well as income groups:
The first public database to provide indicators for financial product and
service usage across economies is the Global Financial Inclusion Indicators
(Global Findex).
The Global Findex was launched in 2011, for 148 countries, with 60
indicators on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk.
The 2014 Global Findex provides 100 indicators for 143 countries. This
version provided more nuanced data on mobile payment.
The latest edition (2017) reflects progress in digital payment, government
policy, and a new generation of financial services accessed through mobiles
phones and the internet (fintech). It is available at
https://globalfindex.worldbank.org/node.
The Global Findex groups inclusion indicators into four broad categories:
Account ownership
Payment services
Use of account
Saving, credit and finncial resilence
This video, let's have a closer look at the account ownership indicators. The
figure shows that the share of adults worldwide with an account increased
from 51% in 2011 to 62% in 2014, and then to 69% in 2017. While growth
is generally much quicker in developing economies, it has been erratic
across countries.
In India, the share of adults with an account has more than doubled since
2011 to reach 80% in 2017. Why did this happen? India used biometric
identification cards to increase account opening. Mobile payment has had a
huge impact on financial inclusion in fragile and conflict affected economies.
Overall, account ownership is very low in these countries with only 27% of
adults reporting having an account in 2017.
In Cote d'Ivoire, or the Ivory Coast, 64% have a mobile account in 2017.
Algeria has a low overall rate of account ownership in 2017.In Algeria, 56%
of men have an account, but only 29% of women. This is pulling down the
overall rate to 43%.
Made or received digital payments in the past year -The percentage of respondents who
reported using mobile money, a debit or credit card, or a mobile phone to make a payment
from an account or reported using the internet to pay bills or make online purchases in the
past 12 months. This also includes respondents who reported paying bills, sending or
receiving remittances, receiving payments for agricultural products, receiving government
transfers, receiving wages, or receiving public sector pensions directly from or into financial
institution accounts, or through mobile money accounts, in the past 12 months.
Used a credit card in the past year-Respondents (percentage) who reported using their
own credit cards in the past 12 months
Used a debit card to make a purchase in the past year:Respondents (percentage) who
reported using their own debit cards directly to make purchases in the past 12 months.
Used a mobile phone or the internet to access an account in the past year-The
percentage of respondents who reported using a mobile phone or the internet to make a
payment/purchase or send/receive money through a financial institution account or by using
a mobile money service in the past 12 months
Used the internet to pay bills or to buy something online in the past year- The
percentage of respondents who reported using the internet to pay bills or make online
purchases in the past 12 months.
NO USE OF ACCOUNT
By exploring the Findex data, we can draw some interesting conclusions. For
example, account owners in China tend to make mobile payments through apps,
while Kenyans typically use mobile money accounts.
Globally, 20 percent of account owners reported having an inactive account. In
India, the share is 48 percent, the highest in the world. India has launched the
“Yojana program” to increase account ownership. The number of new accounts
added is 310 million, though most of them are inactive.
Saved any money in the past year -The percentage of respondents who reported
personally saving or setting aside any money for any reason, using any savings mode, in
the past 12 months.
Saved for old age-The percentage of respondents who reported saving or setting aside
any money in the past 12 months for old age.
Saved formally-The percentage of respondents who reported saving or setting aside any
money in a bank or other financial institution in the past 12 months.
Save semi formally-The percentage of respondents who reported saving or setting aside
any money in the past 12 months through a savings club or person outside the family.
BORROWING INDICATORS
Borrowed any money in the past year-The percentage of respondents who reported
borrowing any money (independently or jointly) for any reason, and from any source, in the
past 12 months
Able to raise emergency funds- The percentage of respondents who reported that, in
case of an emergency, it would be possible for them to gather 1/20 of the gross national
income (GNI) per capita in local currency within the next month.
ENTERPRISE SURVEY
Another financial inclusion database is the Enterprise Survey.
The World Bank defines the Enterprise Survey as “a firm-level survey of a
representative sample of an economy’s private sector. The surveys cover a broad
range of business environment topics including access to finance.”
The World Bank began conducting these surveys in 2002 and, to date, 135,000 firms
(manufacturing and service sectors are the primary business sectors of interest)
have been interviewed in 139 countries under the Global Methodology. More
detailed information about the Enterprise Survey methodology can be found here:
http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/methodology.
For most countries, Enterprise Surveys are performed approximately every 3–4
years. A list of current surveys and expected data delivery dates may be found here:
http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/methodology/current-projects.
You may read all of the reports by following this link:
http://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/enterprise_surveys/.
Here, we will present only the indicators that measure financial inclusion.
G20 FINANCIAL INCLUSION INDICATORS
The other database on financial inclusion is the G20 Financial Inclusion
Indicators, produced by the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI).
The GPFI is an inclusive platform for all G20 countries, interested non-G20
countries, and relevant stakeholders, designed to carry out work on financial
inclusion, including implementing the G20 Financial Inclusion Action Plan, endorsed
at the G20 Summit in Seoul (2012).
The GPFI developed the indicators, which were approved by G20 leaders in 2012.
Additional indicators, covering financial literacy and the use and quality of financial
services, were approved by the GPFI in 2013. In 2016, more indicators measuring
the use of digital payment and access to digital infrastructure were added. This
portal is managed by the World Bank’s Data Group. Through this portal, you can
find the most recent data on the G20 Financial Inclusion Indicators:
https://www.gpfi.org/news/g20-financial-inclusion-indicators.
As you may recall, financial inclusion covers three dimensions, and the G20
indicators are also grouped according to these dimensions:
(i) access to financial services;
(ii) usage of financial services; and
(iii) quality of products and service delivery.
Both supply- and demand-side data are combined to create a comprehensive
database.
The data comes from the World Bank Global Findex database, IMF Financial Access
Survey, Gallup World Poll, World Bank Enterprise Surveys, OECD National Financial
Literacy and Financial Inclusion Surveys, OECD Financing SMEs and Entrepreneurs
Scoreboard, World Bank Doing Business, World Bank Global Survey on Consumer
Protection and Financial Literacy, World Bank Financial Capability Surveys, and
World Bank Global Payments Systems Survey.
A glossary of indicator definitions can be downloaded from the GPFI data portal:
http://datatopics.worldbank.org/g20fidata/.
Introduction to FinStats
In order to gain a comprehensive understanding of your country’s degree of
financial development, you must compare the measures of financial depth,
efficiency, and inclusion to certain benchmarks or other financial sectors over time,
and relative to other countries. To that end, the World Bank has created FinStats
2019. In this section, we will learn how to use this tool.
FinStats has three components:
Benchmarking Methodology
Let us begin by presenting the benchmarking methodology before delving into
using FinStats.
The World Bank warns that, although statistical benchmarks account for country
differences and thus produce better benchmarks than simple country peers, users
should interpret the benchmarks with caution, because regressions do not address
the explanatory variables' endogeneity and do not include ALL structural factors.
Two factors determine a country’s level of financial development (benchmark):
economic and structural (or nonpolicy) factors, and policy factors.
Let us focus first on the economic and structural factors. These factors are external
to policy and include five types of variables, which are illustrated below, along with
simple explanations for why each variable is controlled.
Before delving into the policy factors, let us define the financial frontier (Barajas et
al., 2013).
we move to the right, the structural factor becomes more conducive to finance--
higher income, larger and more dense population, and lower degree of informality.
Thus, there is a positive relationship between structural factors and the level of
financial development vertical axis represented by the bold line in the graph
labeled the structural development line, which shows the expected amount of
financial development for given structural characteristics. We can compare two
countries, A and B, where B has a higher level of financial development. DB is
higher than DA. However, we also note that structural characteristics are much
more advantageous in B; structure B is higher than structure A. And therefore, B
will be expected to have higher financial development than A. SDB is higher than
SDA. In fact, while A is over performing relative to peers, B is underperforming and
is below the line.
In this video, I will demonstrate how to use the FinStats dashboard to conduct
benchmark analysis. FinStats is a ready-to-use financial indicator tool that allows
users to benchmark and compare financial sectors over time and relative to other
countries.
Benchmarking is a simple, standardized methodology that allows users to produce
financial benchmarks to assess the performance of individual countries based on a
broad regression framework. It is created to meet the needs of policymakers and
analysts in the financial sector engaged in diagnostic work.
Let's get started. The first step is the selection stage where you select a country,
indicators, and peer group countries. Let's select Turkey along with two indicators,
which are percentage of outstanding domestic public debt securities to GDP and
percentage of outstanding domestic private debt to GDP.
After selecting the country, five peer countries are automatically generated based
on GDP per capita, population size data indexes. Also, feel free to manually add up
to five additional countries of your choice in this section. The maximum you can
select in total is 10. And make sure to check the box next to the countries you want
to include as comparators. You can use the advanced peer group selection criteria
by clicking on this box.
You can restrict the countries in the selected pool by imposing constraints on
population size, GDP per capita, the region, and the income groups. The peer group
selection algorithm suggests the five closest countries that match the criteria you
set in the selection page in addition to the GDP per capita and population factors.
By default, the factors are given equal weight. But you can modify them here. We
can constrain the selection by choosing your region. For instance, Europe and
Central Asia. Then the algorithm suggests five peer countries, which in this case are
Russia, Romania, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Now, let's move on to the
second step by clicking the Overview Table.
FinStats provides a Summary Table and its associated charts on all 46 indicators for
the country of interest, including a set of benchmarks, such as the statistical,
regional, and income group benchmark and the observed values for the selected
peer countries for the latest available year.
For instance, take a look at the accounts per 1,000 adults at commercial banks.
Turkey is outperforming its peers and its expected regional and income group
median in 2017. The table is dynamic and automatically updates whenever the
selection is changed. By clicking the Overview Charts, we can see a different display
of the results. The next step is the Benchmark section, which gives detailed
historical data and charts for Turkey for selected indicators as well as multiple
comparators, which are regional average and median, average, median, and high-
income median, simple average for the peer group countries selected in step 1, and
the statistical benchmarks, which are the expected median and expected 25th and
75th percentile, which are calculated based on the country's structural
characteristics.
The Benchmark page provides tables and charts for Turkey using two financial
indicators compared to the benchmark of your choice, such as regional median,
peer group average, and expected median. Although great care was taken to
assemble the FinStats database from multiple primary sources, data are provided
on an as-is basis.
Now that you understand how to populate the statistical benchmark data using FinStats, it is time to
interpret the data using country examples.
Use FinStats as described in the previous unit to produce a chart illustrating Brazil’s
bank private credit to GDP. Based on the regional benchmark, what trends do you
observe in Brazil’s performance?
2. Use FinStats as described in the previous unit and produce a chart showing
domestic bank deposits to GDP for Argentina. What can you say on the
performance of the banking sector in Argentina by looking at expected percentiles?
Before reviewing the solution video below, state your observations in the
discussion post below.