Agrarian Crisis in India: An Analysis
Agrarian Crisis in India: An Analysis
Agrarian distress remains one of the biggest challenges confronting the policy
makers in view of the fact that nearly 49 per cent of the workforce in the country
is engaged in agriculture, yet the real farm incomes have almost stagnated or
declined over the past two decades.
The growth rate of agriculture output has been decreasing in recent years;
and the relative contribution of agriculture to the GDP declining steadily. The
deceleration began from the early 1990s, and has become sharp over time. The
agricultural downfall has been reflected in performance of agriculture by crop
categories, trends in area cultivated, input use, capital stock, in and other aspects.
The country is slowly degrading from being a self-reliant country with a food
surplus to being a net importer of food. The alarm bells, however, are still to
register a drastic response. It is stated that agriculture is not seen as a profitable
activity any more, as the incomes derived from it do not suffice the expenditure
of the farmers. The government has made the agri-sector its main focus now,
rolling out reforms like e-NAM and the price deficiency payments scheme to
address farmer’s problems over lowering prices. The World Trade Organisation
(WTO) has permitted income support, and so the government has been able to
introduce income support schemes without any major scrutiny over ‘producer
support subsidy’, issues of overproduction continue to be a challenge. The
government’s agri-marketing reforms need to be foregrounded going beyond e-
NAM.
Since 2014, the budget allocation has been increased by the NDA
government to the agri-sector annually by giving out higher farm loans.
However, there has been no visible improvement in the livelihood of the
cultivators.
As per estimates of the NITI Aayog, the growth in real farm incomes
remains at around zero over the past two years, and prior to that, between 2011–
12 and 2015–16, real farm incomes had risen by less than half a per cent every
year.
Earlier, in 2016, the Economic Survey report showed that the average
income of a farming family in 17 states of India was a meagre ` 2,000 a year, or
less than ` 1,700 per month. The average farming family in India requires an
income of ` 1.5 lakh per year to come out of poverty, but unfortunately this
remains a far-fetched target. Moreover, it was reported by an ICRIER-IECD
study that farmers suffered a cumulative loss of ` 45 lakh crore between 2000–01
and 2016–17. The reason behind it was the denial of a fair price to farmers for
their produce. Several recent studies have pointed towards farm incomes falling
to the lowest level in 15 years as well as massive job losses for the rural farm and
non-farm workers.
——sidelight——
The country’s agrarian crisis has been reflected in the full-year GDP
estimates for 2018–19: the farm growth rate adjusted for inflation is the same as
the farm growth not adjusted for inflation—at 3.8 per cent. In other words,
income growth in the agricultural sector has been flat, as inflation in agricultural
produce is virtually zero.
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Even after putting in a lot of hard work and producing bumper harvests, the
plight of a farming family has only worsened owing to a number of factors
ranging from macroeconomic policies to diminishing returns. There was a failure
to recognise when the Green Revolution started giving diminishing returns and
suggest alternatives to tackle the situation. There is also the economic impact of
subsidies leading to indiscriminate use of inputs and causing strain on financial
resources that can be diverted to more productive purposes. So, the current
agricultural crisis can be attributed to a plethora of reasons: unviable agriculture,
poor returns to farmers, including denial of a fair price to farmers for their
produce, periodic very high spikes in prices of key commodities, shortcomings in
the MSP system, periodic excess of production which are dumped by the
roadside severely affecting several farmers and causing a huge burden on the
government, adverse terms of trade, rural indebtedness, the problem of
diminishing soil fertility, the sinking water table, and increasing costs in general
(the last three are a consequence of the Green Revolution). The factors
responsible for the farm crisis include dependence on climate and rainfall, high
import of agricultural goods, reduction in agricultural subsidies, conversion of
farm land for other uses, agricultural budget increases without relating them to
benefits on ground, etc. Agricultural distress has had an impact on the economy
as a whole affecting most of the people in one way or another, as it had affected
food supply, cost of living, health and nutrition, employment, land loss, forex
earnings, and so on.
————
Analysis
What to do?
* Underaking development of farmer-oriented policies, infrastructure, and
institutional mechanisms and to increase farm growth and farmers’ income
* Need for a competitive and stable market so that farmers can get better
prices for their produce
* Shift from cereal-centric policies to include focus on other crops and
proactive policy management
box closed
Role of Investment
While the terms of trade were adverse for agriculture, the problem was
further exacerbated by the decline in investment: public sector investment
between 2011–12 and 2016–17 declined to 0.4 per cent of the gross domestic
product (GDP), and private sector investment too dipped to 1.8 per cent in the
same period.
The agriculture sector is in dire need for reforms. But due to inherent policy
fault, the emphasis is on moving people out of agriculture to the urban centres,
which require cheap labour. The policy of allowing agricultural prices to remain
low to satisfy consumers and industry is a wrong approach. Food prices have a
46 per cent weight in the Consumer Price Index basket, which is India’s
benchmark inflation measure. In this scenario, farmers bear the brunt of low food
prices, while the rest of the population enjoy the benefits of low food inflation.
So, any policy intervention aimed at improving the terms of trade for agriculture
risks a political backlash due to inflation becoming higher so the government
does not want such a policy reform. But this stance has to change for the benefit
of the economy as a whole. Agriculture must be treated as an economic activity,
and this alone is capable of reviving the economy.
Income Support Considering the low level of income of an agricultural
household, it is a pertinent first step, though not sufficient, that some form of
income support is provided to farmers in addition to the other subsidies. Several
state governments are providing direct income support to farmers. Telangana
and Odisha have launched farm support schemes in 2018 the Rythu Bandhu
Scheme in (Telangana) and the Krushak Assistance for Livelihood and Income
Augmentation (KALIA) scheme in Odisha. Other states—West Bengal,
Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Haryana—pay directly to farmers,
some incorporating the allocation available under PM-Kisan.
———
While the government cannot revive food demand or prices globally, it can
certainly come up with long-term policies on exports and imports that would
help producers deal with non-tariff barriers.
Very little targets can be achieved by just increasing the Minimum Support
Price (MSP). There is a need to go beyond it and target subsidy policy.
The subsidy policy has been blamed for the demand-supply equation in
agriculture that is skewed against the producers. The demand curve is steep
while the supply curve is relatively flat. The market price is closer to the supply
curve, which leaves a huge consumer surplus (demand being much more,
meaning the people may be willing to pay more but do not) and little of profit. If
the demand line is flattened, the price is closer to demand, which means smaller
consumer surplus and higher profits for farmers. The subsidy policy has been
seen as contributing to this.
Subsidy Policy
The ill-advised subsidy policy of the government should be rationalised.
The current subsidy policy makes no discrimination whatsoever on the various
input subsidies to agriculture. This has led to injudicious decisions, for example,
subsidies have been given for paddy and cane in rainfed regions, such as free
electricity, which resulted in inappropriate crop choices. Moreover, when
everything from electricity, water, seeds, fertiliser, interest are given free of cost
or subsidised without taking into consideration the landholding or size, the end
result is similar cost structures for most suppliers. To overcome the problems
that have sprung up due to an indiscriminate subsidy policy, subsidies should be
rationalised by restricting them to only those holding 2–3 acres or to the first 2–3
acres only for even larger farmers. Direct Benefit Transfer can be a good
beginning in this direction. In this way, the larger units which lose a part of their
subsidies will find cultivation of traditional crops uncompetitive. As a result,
there would be diversification of crops. The larger landholder will diversify into
other commercial crops or crops for which there are no subsidies now so that
they do not suffer, in comparative terms, in relation to subsidy-supported small
or marginal farmers. This diversification is an important requirement for
increasing income of farmers as foodgrains production is in surplus.
It will also have a positive effect on government finances. It can reduce the
crops procured under MSP since the market prices would have substantially
enhanced the incomes of farmers. Poorer marginal sections could be covered
through higher public distribution system (PDS) subsidies.
However, this process of rationisation need not be done for all products. It
can begin with those where there are surplus buffer stocks. When prices of those
products rise, consumers will move on to other products diversifying their
consumption basket, and the prices of un-subsidised products will also start
rising.
But with BJP making cow slaughter a major poll plank to consolidate Hindu
votes, legal and extra-legal factors have disrupted this unorganised market.
Slaughter houses have been shut down in many places. Cattle traders have
become quite wary as they have been targeted with physical violence by people
even when they have not been involved in cattle trade for slaughter purposes.
With nobody ready to buy the unproductive cattle, they have been simply let
loose resulting in a large-scale increase in stray cattle menace causing crop-
destruction for farmers around the country. Farmers are forced to increase
vigilance in the fields to prevent the stray cattle from destroying their crops. This
entails either hiring extra labour or putting in extra labour oneself. Both ways,
this adds to the labour costs that have a significantly higher share in the A2+FL
measure of costs that has been used by the government to justify MSP mark-ups.
(The A2+FL formula takes into account actual cost plus imputed value of family
labour in the production of a crop.) Importantly, labour costs have a significantly
higher share than animal costs in the cost of cultivation and now, they have
increased at an even faster pace. There is no policy in place to deal with this—a
problem that will require significant resources to take care of the unwanted
cattle. But this issue has been ignored not just by the government but also others.
Role of Middlemen
The calls for breaking up of cartelisation of middlemen (to tackle the
agrarian crisis is naïve.) Removal of middlemen and reforming and Agricultural
Produce Market Committees (APMCs) may not address the issue of poor farm-
gate prices. The middlemen have an important role in terms of taking immediate
delivery of perishable produce, lending finance to farmers, storage, interacting
both ways with customers and markets and linking them, and inventory-
holding. Government agencies cannot perform these tasks as the middlemen do
for various reasons. Small farmers whose reach doesn’t extend beyond the
village boundaries cannot do the functions middlemen do for them.
Commercial banks must also pay more attention and invest more
manpower resources for dealing in rural and inclusive business.
Other Measures
To deal with the agrarian distress and resolve the plight of farmers by
stabilising farmers’ income and reducing climate-related vulnerability, there are
some focus areas identified by the National Innovations on Climate Resilient
Agriculture (NICRA) and Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)
studies:
These include—
The government should promote R&D with enhanced funding to the level
of 1 per cent of GDP. Methods of traditional farming like zero-budget natural
farming (ZBNF). The method promises to reduce input costs and restore soil
fertility. Zero-interest credit cards to small and marginal farmers with a
maximum ceiling can be an ideal solution to further expand credit growth.
Promotion of ancillary agricultural activities like agri-farming and bee-keeping
may diversify farm income. Interventions to make farmers more resilient to
climatic and price risks are needed. To leverage digital markets and the
monopoly of the APMC, agriware house grids may be set up as well as incentive-
based village storage systems along highways. Some kind of an organisation for
ushering in synergy in the context of drought-related management would bring
relief to farmers. For instance, there can be exclusive agency for reporting,
assessing, and streamlining the process of disaster-related claims—a matter that
has affected the financial condition of farmers.
A right combination of various policy initiatives for infra push along with
an innovative outlook can be the key to unlock the potential of agriculture, and
thereby resolve the crisis afflicting the sector for decades. The strategy being
adopted to tackle the situation may be on the right track, but its policy mix needs
to be fine-tuned.