IFM Excel File 07092020
IFM Excel File 07092020
4
Computation of Equity Risk Premium and Country Risk Premium (for investi
US Treasury securities
US Corporate Bonds
US Equities
India Sovereign Bonds
India Corporate Bonds
Indian Equities
um (for investing in Equity markets)
6.00%
6.50%
0.50%
2.44% Corporate Bond yield - Soverign Bond yield (for similar maturities)
2.11%
17.36%
12.91%
1.34
3.28%
9.28%
6.00%
3.28%
24.28%
15%
9.28%
ilar maturities)
Index
What are Eurobonds?
Example
Company that issued Euro bonds XYZ Ltd
Head quarters USA
Which country the bonds are issued Australia
In which currency the bonds were issued Canadian dollars
What are Rupee Denominated Bonds (RDB) also called Masala Bonds?
Example
Company that issued Masala bonds XYZ Ltd
Head quarters India
Which country the bonds are issued Anywhere outside India
In which currency the bonds were issued USD
Interest and Principal to be repaid in INR
A Eurobond is a debt instrument that's denominated in a currency other than
currency of the country or market in which it is issued.
utside India
Index Sheet
Cost 85%
Exch rate 5%
Sales in INR
Cost 81%
Profit margin 19%
porters selling at the same price to US importers
Scenario 1
India China
100 100 USD
75 7 CNY
6375 595
15% 1125 105 15%
to US importers
Useful
Links
USD/ INR
EUR/ USD
GBP/ USD
481.892 Mar 13, 2020
337.24 2018-19
517.52 2018-19
-180.28 2018-19
-0.618 2018-19
30.712 2018-19
10.416 2018-19
70.601 2018-19
130.423 31-Mar-19
6600 Avg in 2019
110 April 2019
75.79
1.0846
1.2453
Index Sheet
STEPS
Borrow USD today
Buy INR at spot rate today using USD
Deposit today INR for 1 year
Buy USD at 1 year USD/ INR forward rate today @
Take INR deposit on maturity - 1 year later (maturity value)
Take delivery of USD - 1year later honoring the forward contract by giving INR
Use USD to repay the USD borrowed 1 year back with interest
Take arbitrage profit
10000 INR
132.45 USD
132.45 USD
80 INR
133.7748 USD
10702 INR
10600 INR
102 INR
1000 USD
75500 INR
75500 INR
78 USD
80030 INR
1026 USD
1010 USD
16 USD
10000 JPY
93.02326 USD
93.02326 USD
93.95349 USD
10100 JPY
10000 JPY
100 JPY
Index Sheet
Depreciation
Outflows :
Tax differential
Initial capital invested - 1,303,318
- 1,303,318
Discounting factor 1
Present value - 1,303,318
NPV (USD '000s) 4,458,335
IRR (%) Err:523
Particulars 0
Inflows:
Interest income
Dividend income
Depreciation
Outflows:
Tax differential
Initial capital invested - 1,303,318
Amount in Rs
512,099,770 628,906,745
the parent in $:
1 2 3 4
- - - -
0.7937 0.6299 0.4999 0.3968
- - - -
8/9/2021
5 1000000
8%
2200 5,000,000.00 400000
300000 4,000,000.00 320000
660,000,000 3,000,000.00 240000
2,000,000.00 160000
1,049.40 1,000,000.00 80000
314,820,000 0
29,282,000
10,000,000
354,102,000
305,898,000
80,000
305,818,000
146,792,640
159,025,360
159,025,360
43.5
3,655,755
3,655,755.40
Interest Income
19,318,369
40,609,290
36,421,925
20,457,392
-
116,806,975
2,685,218 43.5
11,772,409
1,549,973
-320,152
15,687,447
0.3149
4,939,688
the end of the project:
annually:
Borrowi Borrowin
ng cost g cost
pa pa
U Ltd USA 9% Australia 8%
A Ltd USA 10% Australia 7%
Exchange rate of USD / AUD 2
2 AUD
-2 AUD
1 USD
Int paid on AUD borr AUD -0.14 0.14 AUD
-0.09 USD
Int paid on AUD borr AUD -0.14 0.14 AUD
-0.09 USD
Int paid on AUD borr AUD -0.14 0.14 AUD
-0.09 USD
Int paid on AUD borr AUD -0.14 0.14 AUD
-0.09 USD
Int paid on AUD borr AUD -0.14 0.14 AUD
-0.09 USD
2 AUD
-1 USD
-2 AUD
Ltd, an Australian Company, has to pay 10% to borrow in the US. A Ltd can borrow in
ralia. U Ltd will be doing business in Australia and needs AUD,
needs USD. The exchange rate is 2 AUD/USD.
s AUD 2.0 Million. They decide to borrow the funds locally and swap the borrowed fu
e cash flows for this swap.
U Ltd CFs
The important thing to note from the above is that, for arriving at the implied
MM rates of CAD and USD, you are only using the spot CAD/USD rate and the
rates and no where the forward rates for CAD / USD
So for doing the above, you need to borrow in USD toay in USD MM and inve
CAD MM to meet the import requirements 3 months from now
Today
Borrow DC now Importer
Convert to FC How many USD do you require?
Invest FC When do you need?
Use FC on maturity for Import
Repay DC with int Rate of interest for USD for abo
Check the DC outflow with
forward rate outflow Rate of interest for INR for the
Forward Market
USD / INR 1 year forward rate
Today
Exporter
How many USD are you going to
When are you likely to receive?
Forward Market
USD / INR 1 year forward rate
64.69
4%
26-Sep-20
1,000,000 USD
1 year from now
3.00% p.a
6.50% p.a
1,000,000
67.2776
67,277,600 INR outflow for the importer one year from now using forw
r
64.25
26-Sep-20
10,000,000 USD
1 year from now
3.00% p.a
6.50% p.a
9,708,738 Buy USD of this amount using the borrowed amount
623,786,408 Invest this amount for one year at INR interest rate
664,332,524 Realise this INR at the end of one year using money market
67.2776
672,776,000 INR inflow for the exporter one year from now using forwar
rowed amount
from now using money market
interest rate
Arbitrage Problem
Spot 1.03
Forward 1.07
Act like
an
fwd prm 3.88% importer
Ann fwd 7.77%
INR 7%
$ 5%
Annual 1
Half yearl 2 Act like
an
Quarterly 4 exporter
Monthly 12
Think like who ever would be losing in the
forward market, if they cover, compared to
money market difference
-31098
Index Sheet
A U.S. firm holds an asset in France and faces the following scenari
State 1 State 2 State 3
Probability 25% 25% 25%
Spot rate $1.20/€ $1.10/€ $1.00/€
P* € 1,500 € 1,400 € 1,300
P $1,800 $1,540 $1,300
In the above table, P* is the euro price of the asset held by the U.S
(a) Compute the exchange exposure faced by the U.S. firm.
(b) What is the variance of the dollar price of this asset if the U.S. fi
(c) If the U.S. firm hedges against this exposure using the forward c
Solution
Probability 25% 25% 25%
Spot rate (EUR/USD) 1.2 1.1 1
Asset price in Euro 1500 1400 1300
Asset price in USD 1800 1540 1300
Exp Values
25%
0.9 1.05 0.0125 Variance of spot rate
1200 1350
1080 1430 72100 Variance of land price in USD
SD 10
Variance 100
lar value of the hedged position?
spot rate
the dollar value of the hedged position (error term in the regression equation)
uncertainty
regression equation)
Index Sheet
Exposure Coefficient
Suppose that you hold a piece of land in the City of London that you
U.S. resident, you are concerned with the dollar value of the land. A
booms in the future, the land will be worth £2,000 and one British p
British economy slows down, on the other hand, the land will be wo
will be stronger, i.e., $1.50/£. You feel that the British economy will
probability and a slow-down with a 40% probability.
(a) Estimate your exposure b to the exchange risk.
(b) Compute the variance of the dollar value of your property that is
uncertainty.
(c) Discuss how you can hedge your exchange risk exposure and also
hedging.
Exposure
(a) coefficient -5500 GBP
Variance of the
dollar value of the
property that is
attributable to
exchange rate
(b) uncertainty : 72600 USD
Variance of the
dollar value of
unhedged position : 72600 USD
Variance of the
dollar value of the
hedged position 0
and Price
ng GBP 5500 in the forward market.
Index Sheet
10000000 USD
5.00% 10.0%
h Flows
INR CFs for the USD CFs for the Actual Spot
investor investor rates
- 600,000,000 - 10,000,000 60
60,000,000 952,381 62.7
60,000,000 907,029 64.8
60,000,000 863,838 68.2
60,000,000 822,702 69
60,000,000 783,526 67
600,000,000 7,462,154 65
USD return
4.01% for the
investor
USD CFs for the
investor
- 10,000,000
956,938
925,926
879,765
869,565
895,522
9,230,769
7.76%
Index Sheet
1,000,000
tely liquid
Euro / CZK 30
Euro / INR 90
33333
3,000,000
Index Sheet
Benchmark case
GBP/ USD 1.6
No. of Units sold 50000
Price per unit 1000 GBP
Sales 50,000,000
Variable costs per unit 650 32,500,000
Fixed overhead costs 4,000,000
Depreciation allowances 1,000,000
Net profit before tax 12,500,000
Income tax 50% 6,250,000
Profit after tax 6,250,000
Operating cash flow in GBP 7,250,000
Operating cash flow in USD 11,600,000
CASE 1
GBP depreciates
No other changes
GBP/ USD 1.4
No. of Units sold 50000
Price per unit 1000 GBP
Sales 50,000,000
Variable costs per unit 696 34,785,714
Fixed overhead costs 4,000,000
Depreciation allowances 1,000,000
Net profit before tax 10,214,286
Income tax 50% 5,107,143
Profit after tax 5,107,143
Operating cash flow in GBP 6,107,143
Operating cash flow in USD 8,550,000
CASE 2
GBP depreciates; Dollar value of unit price is maintained assuming t
GBP/ USD 1.4
No. of Units sold 50000
Price per unit 1,143
Sales 57,142,857
Variable costs per unit 696 34,785,714
Fixed overhead costs 4,000,000
Depreciation allowances 1,000,000
Net profit before tax 17,357,143
Income tax 50% 8,678,571
Profit after tax 8,678,571
Operating cash flow in GBP 9,678,571
Operating cash flow in USD 13,550,000
Variable costs 330 GBP
512 USD
CASE 3
GBP depreciates
Sales volume, selling price and the prices of both locally sourced and
Assumption : Selling price and price of locally sourced inputs increas
Units sold due to elastic demand for its products
Inflation 8%
GBP/ USD 1.4
No. of Units sold 40000
Price per unit 1080 GBP
Sales 43,200,000
Variable costs per unit 722 28,884,571
Fixed overhead costs 4,000,000
Depreciation allowances 1,000,000
Net profit before tax 9,315,429
Income tax 50% 4,657,714
Profit after tax 4,657,714
Operating cash flow in GBP 5,657,714
Operating cash flow in USD 7,920,800
1,600 USD
1,600 USD
locally sourced inputs
imported inputs
1,512 USD
Case 2 Case 3
1.4 1.4
696 722
1,143 1080
50000 40000
9,678,571 5,657,714
13,550,000 7,920,800
38,684,957 22,613,713
5,567,208 - 10,504,036
16.8% -31.7%