Travel Forecasting Process

Four Steps of Conventional

Transportation Modeling

09/18/2012 1
 Sequential Demand Forecasting Models

z As we discussed before that the transportation

planners develop different alternatives once the
planning process identifies the system deficiencies
or where improvements could be made.

z All of the alternatives should be tested against the

future travel demand to see how well they perform
to meet the stated goals and objectives.

z The sequential demand forecasting models are

such tools that help planners to predict the future
travel demand.

09/18/2012 2
 Sequential Demand Forecasting Models

z Travel demand is expressed as the number of

persons or vehicles per unit of time that can be
expected to travel on a given segment of a
transportation system under a set of given land-use,
socioeconomic, and environmental conditions.

z The forecasting models are called “sequential”

because they can be chained together in a
sequence- outputs of one model becomes inputs for
another model in the chain.

09/18/2012 3
 Sequential Demand Forecasting Models

z The following four steps need to be performed for travel

forecasting:
z Trip Generation
-- decision to travel for a specific purpose (eat lunch)
z Trip Distribution
-- choice of destination (a particular restaurant? The
nearest restaurant?)
z Mode Choice
-- choice of travel mode (by car)
z Network/Traffic Assignment
-- choice of route or path

09/18/2012 4
 Land Use and
Travel Forecasting Process Travel Characteristics

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Transit and Mode Choice

Highway System

Traffic Assignment

09/18/2012 5
 Factors Influencing Travel Demand

z Three factors affect the demand for urban

travel:

z Location and intensity of land use

z Socioeconomic characteristics of people living in the
area; and
z Extent, cost, and quality of available transportation
services.

09/18/2012 6
 Factors Influencing Travel Demand

z Land use characteristics are a primary

determinant of travel demand.
z The amount of traffic generated by a parcel
of land depends on how the land is used.
z For example, shopping centers, residential
complexes, and office buildings produce
different traffic generation patterns.

09/18/2012 7
 Factors Influencing Travel Demand

z Socioeconomic characteristics of the people

also influence the demand for transportation.
z Lifestyles and values affect how people use
their resources for transportation.
z For example, a residential area consisting of
high-income workers will generate more trips by
automobile per person than a residential area
populated primarily by low-income workers.

09/18/2012 8
 Factors Influencing Travel Demand

z The availability of transportation facilities and

services, referred to as the supply, also affects the
demand for travel.

z Travelers are sensitive to the level of service

provided by alternative transportation modes.

z When deciding whether to travel at all or which

mode to use, they consider attributes such as travel
time, cost, convenience, comfort, and safety.
09/18/2012 9
 Travel Analysis Zone (TAZ)

z Prior to the technical task of travel forecasting, the study

area must be divided into a set of traffic zones
(commonly known as “Traffic Analysis Zone”, or “Travel
Analysis Zone”, or “TAZ”) that form the basis for
analysis of travel movements. The selection of these
zones is usually based on the following criteria:
z Socioeconomic characteristics should be
homogeneous,
z Intrazonal trips should be minimized, and

z Physical, political, and historical boundaries should be

utilized where possible.
09/18/2012 10
 Travel Analysis Zone (TAZ)

09/18/2012 11
Model Step #1…

Trip
Generation
 Trip Generation

z Trip generation
is the process
of determining
the number of
trips that will
begin or end in
each traffic
zone within a 3-D diagram showing trip generation at
different zones
study area.
09/18/2012 13
 Trip Generation

z Since the trips are determined without regard to

destination, they are referred to as trip ends.
z Each trip has two ends, and they are described in
terms of trip purpose, or whether the trips are either
produced by a traffic zone or attracted to a traffic
zone.
z For example, a home-to-work trip would be
considered to have a trip end produced in the home
zone and attracted to the work zone.

09/18/2012 14
 Trip-End Definitions
Origin & Destination defined in terms of direction
Production & Attraction defined in terms of land use

Residential Residential

Nonresidential Nonresidential

Zone I Zone J
Two Trip ends: one origin Two Trip ends: one origin
and one destination, or and one destination, or
two productions two attractions

09/18/2012 15
 Trip Generation
z Trips are estimated by purpose (categories)
z Work
z School
z Shopping
z Social or recreational
z Others (medical)
z Travel behavior of trip-makers depends somewhat on trip
purpose
z Work trips
z regular
z Often during peak periods
z Usually same origin/destination
z School trips
z Regular
z Same origin/destination
z Shopping/recreational
09/18/2012 z Highly variable by origin and destination, number, and time of day 16
 Trip Generation
z The Aggregate (macro) Models
z The aggregate models consider zone to be the smallest
unit and calculate numbers of trips generated by each TAZ
based on the zonal population, average zonal income, etc.

z The Disaggregate (Micro) Models

z The disaggregate models consider a household (a
residential unit where usually a group of people live) to be
the smallest unit and calculate number of trips generated
by each household based on household income, number
of persons living in the household, etc.
z Trips generated at different types of households are then
combined to get the estimate of zonal trip generation.
09/18/2012 17
 Trip Generation
z The three most common mathematical
formulations of trip generation are:

z Regression models,
z Trip-rate analysis models, and

z Cross-classification models.

09/18/2012 18
 Trip Generation
Regression Models

z Regression is a statistical technique to

determine the relationship between different
variables.
z The variables are classified as dependent
variable and independent variable(s).
z The variable in the left hand side of the equation
is called the dependent variable and the
variable(s) in the right hand side of the equation
is(are) called the independent variable(s).
09/18/2012 19
 Trip Generation
Regression Models

z The regression equations are developed using data

collected from the field.
z For example, if we can collect data on number of trips
per day, number of persons, and number of autos for a
certain number of households, then the regression
equation could look like:
T = 0.82 + 1.3 P + 2.1 A
where
T = number of trips per household per day
P = number of persons per household
A = number of autos per household
09/18/2012 20
 Trip Generation
Regression Models
, Remember: the regression equation is NOT unique, the coefficients
of the independent variables vary for different sets of data.

# How to Use the Regression Equation?

z If a particular zone contains 250 households with an average of
4 persons and 2 autos for each household, and if the equation
we just saw is applicable for this zone, then the average number
of trips per day in that zone is:
Step 1 : Calculate the number of trips per household.
T = 0.82 + 1.3 P + 2.1 A
= 0.82 + 1.3(4) + 2.1( 2)
= 10.22 trips/household/day

Step 2 : Determine the number of trips in the entire zone.

N = T × (number of households)
09/18/2012 = 10.22 × 250 = 2555 trips/day 21
 Trip Generation
Regression Models
# How to Develop a Regression Equation?
z Suppose, the regression equation relating Y with X is as
follows: Y =a+b X
z Then, the coefficients “a” and “b” can be determined as
follows:
− −

∑ {( X − X )(Y − Y )
b= i
−
i
2

∑(X − X ) i

− −

a =Y−b X

where, X and Y are observations of X and Y, and

i i

− −

09/18/2012
X and Y are mean values of X and Y. 22
Trip Generation
Regression Models
# How to Develop a Regression Equation? (cont..)
z We now want to measure how good a relationship is there
between X and Y. This can be done by determining a statistic
which is called “Coefficient of Determination (R2)” as follows:
− 2

∑X −nX
2

R =b
2 2 i
− 2

∑ Y − nY
2

z R2 value closer to 1 indicates that there is a very good

relationship between Y and X.

z R2 value closer to 0 (zero) indicates that there is no

relationship between Y and X.
09/18/2012 23
Trip Generation
Regression Models
# How to Develop a Regression Equation? (cont..)

Example (Page 760 of TEXT Book)

¬ A land-use planner observed that in 5 zones of the city the
number of gas stations (Y) in relation to the population (X) in
1000s was as follows:

Y 2 7 3 5 8
X 1 5 3 2 4

Î Set up a linear equation connecting Y in terms of X, and

Î Determine R2.
09/18/2012 24
Trip Generation
Regression Models
Solution (see Page 760 of TEXT Book)

09/18/2012 25
Trip Generation
Regression Models
Solution (see Page 760 of TEXT Book)

Î Now we can determine the R2 value as follows:

− 2

∑X −nX
2

R =b
2 2 i
− 2

∑ Y − nY
2

We have, b = 1.30; ∑ X = 55 ; X = 3; n = 5;
2

∑ Y = 151 ; Y = 5
2

55 − 5( 3 ) 2

Then, R = (1 .30 )2
= 0 .65
2

151 − 5( 5 ) 2

09/18/2012 26
Trip Generation
Trip Rate Analysis Models
● Trip rate analysis models are
based on the determination of
the average trip production or
trip attraction rates associated
with the important trip
generators within the region.

● Trip rates for a large number

of different types of land uses
are presented in the Trip
Generation manual of the
Institute of Transportation
Engineers (ITE).

09/18/2012 27
Trip Generation
Trip Rate Analysis Models

HBW: Home Based Work

HBO: Home Based Other
NHB: Non Home Based

09/18/2012 28
Trip Generation
Trip Rate Analysis Models
EXAMPLE

For 100 employees in a retail shopping center,

calculate the total number of trips
Home-based work (HBW) =
100 employees x 1.7 trips/employee = 170
Home-based Other (HBO) =
100 employees x 10 trips/employee = 1,000
Non-home-based (NHB) =
100 employees x 5 trips/employee = 500

Total = 170 + 1000 + 500 = 1,670 daily trips

09/18/2012 29
Trip Generation
Cross-Classification Models
● Cross-Classification
Models (or Category
Analysis) models may be
thought of as extensions
of the simple trip-rate
models.

● Three to four explanatory

(independent) variables,
each broken into about
three discrete levels, are
usually sufficient.

09/18/2012 30
Model Step #2…

Trip
Distribution
Trip Distribution

● After the trip generation stage, the analyst knows the

number of trip productions and trip attractions that each
zone will have.

● But the analyst does not know (at trip generation

stage)

● Where do the attractions at each zone come from and where do

the productions of each zone go?
● What are the zone-to-zone travel volumes?

09/18/2012 32
Trip Distribution

● Trip distribution
procedures determine
where the trips produced
in each zone will go or
how they will be divided
among all other zones in
the study area.
● The output is a set of
tables (called “trip matrix”
or “O-D matrix”) that show
the travel flow between
each pair of zones.
Trips produced in Zone 2 are
distributed among other zones
09/18/2012 33
Trip Distribution

● There are several methods of trip distribution

analysis:
● Fratar method
● Intervening Opportunity model, and
● Gravity Model

● Among these three types of methods, the most

widely used trip distribution model is the gravity
model.
09/18/2012 34
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model

● The gravity model gets its name from the fact

that it is conceptually based on Newton’s law of
gravity, which states that the attractive force
between any two bodies is directly related to
their masses and inversely related to the
distance between them.

M M
F =k 1
2
2

r
09/18/2012 35
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model

● The application of this concept to trip distribution takes

the form P A
T =k
ij
i
c
j

W ij

● This equation states that the interchange volume

between a trip producing zone “i” and a trip attracting
zone “j” is directly proportional to the magnitude of the
trip productions of zone “i” and the trip attractions of
zone “j” and is inversely proportional to a function of the
impedance (usually the travel time between “i” and “j”)
Wij between the two zones.
09/18/2012 36
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
● It can be shown that the final form of the gravity model of trip
distribution is as follows:
P A F K
T = n
i j ij ij

∑A F K
ij

j ij ij
j =1

Where, Tij = number of trips produced in zone i and attracted to zone j

Pi = number of trips produced in zone i
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = friction factor for interchange ij (usually based on travel time)
Kij = socioeconomic characteristics of zones
i = origin zone
j = destination zone
n = number of zones in the study area

09/18/2012 37
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model

● The final form of the gravity model actually means that:

attractive ness and accessibil ity
characteri stics of
Trips between and = trips produced in ×
attractive ness and accessibil ity
characteri stics of all zones
in the area

¬ Zone j gets a proportion of zone i’s trip productions

according to its characteristics (can be viewed as the
strength of attraction) as compared to the characteristics
of all other zones in the study area.
09/18/2012 38
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
EXAMPLE (Page 517)
ÎWe need to distribute 602 work trip productions from
zone 3 to zones 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. the numbers of work
trip productions and attractions were determined in the
trip generation phase. Travel times and Fij values are
given.
Zone 1 2 3 4 5 Total

Trip production, Pi 0 102 602 715 397 1816

Trip attraction, Aj 1080 531 76 47 82 1816

09/18/2012 39
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Travel Time (min) Friction Factor, Fij

j 1 2 3 4 5 Travel Time Fij

(min)
i
5 45
3 20 7 5 10 25 7 29
10 18
20 6
25 4
9 Assume Kij values = 1

09/18/2012 40
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
SOLUTION
A F K P
i j ij ij
T =
Î We know: ij n
∑ A F K
j = 1 j ij ij

PAF K
Î Therefore, T = 3 1 31 31

AF K +AF K +AF K +AF K +AF K

31
1 31 31 2 32 32 3 33 33 4 34 34 5 35 35

602 × 1080× 6 × 1
=
1080× 6 × 1 + 531× 29 × 1 + 76 × 45 × 1 + 47 × 18 × 1 + 82 × 4 × 1
602 × 6480
=
6480 + 15399 + 3420 + 846 + 328
= 147 work trips
09/18/2012 41
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Î Similar calculations will show that:

T32 = 350; T33 = 78; T34 = 19; T35 = 8

T31 + T32 + T33 + T34 + T35 = 602 checked

Î The result can be presented as follows:

To Number of Work Trips

From 1 2 3 4 5 Total
3 147 350 78 19 8 602

09/18/2012 42
Trip Distribution
Calibration of Gravity Model

ƒ Gravity model is a logical way of distributing the trips

among various zones.
ƒ We have already seen that the gravity model can be
used to determine the interzonal trips among all the
TAZs for a certain study area.
ƒ However, at first, the numbers of the interzonal trips
calculated by the gravity model do not completely
match (or equal) with what were observed in the field.

09/18/2012 43
Trip Distribution
Calibration of Gravity Model
ƒ In most of the situations, after using the gravity model,
we find that while productions completely match with
the real zonal productions, the attractions of different
zones calculated by the gravity model do not match
with the real zonal attraction values (which were
estimated during the trip generation phase).
ƒ To overcome this problem, we need to make some
adjustments to the gravity model so that the model can
reproduce the numbers for the existing situation (i.e.,
the model values = field values).
ƒ This is called Calibration!

09/18/2012 44
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
EXAMPLE (Page 523)
Î A three-zone city has the following trips produced and
attracted at its zones:

ZONE 1 2 3 TOTAL

Production 700 200 0 900

(Pi)

Attraction 0 400 500 900

(Aj)

Continue……
09/18/2012 45
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
► The calibrated friction Travel Fij
factors and interzonal Time (min)
travel times are as
follows: 2 10
4 7
6 6
ÎDistribute the trips 8 5
between the zones,
assuming Kij = 1. Travel Times (min)
Dest. 1 2 3
Origin
1 2 4 6
2 4 2 8
3 6 8 2
09/18/2012 46
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
SOLUTION
First iteration
P A F K
We know: T =
ij n
i j ij ij

∑A F K
j =1
j ij ij

(700)(0)(10)
T1−1 = = 0 ; T1−2 = 338; T1−3 = 362
(0)(10) + (400)(7) + (500)(6)

(200)(0)(7)
T2−1 = = 0 ; T2−2 = 123; T2−3 = 77
(0)(7) + (400)(10) + (500)(5)

T3−1 = 0 ; T3−2 = 0 ; T3−3 = 0

09/18/2012 47
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Zone-to-Zone trips: first iteration

Dest. 1 2 3 Total
Origin
1 0 338 362 700
2 0 123 77 200
3 0 0 0 0
Total 0 461 439 900
Computed Aj 0 461 439 900
Given Aj 0 400 500 900

09/18/2012 NOT EQUAL 48

Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
ÎTherefore, further iterations are necessary using
adjusted zonal attraction values which can be
calculated as follows:

A jk = [ A j . A j ( K −1) ] / C j ( k −1)
Ajk = adjusted attraction for zone j, iteration k
Ajk = Aj when k=1
Cjk = actual attraction for zone j, iteration k
Aj = desired attraction for zone j
j = attraction zone number, j = 1,2,3,…
k = iteration number, k = 1,2,3,….
09/18/2012 49
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
ÎAdjusted attractions for
ƒ Zone 1: A1 = 0
ƒ Zone 2: A2 = (400)(400)/461 = 347
ƒ Zone 3: A3 = (500)(500)/439 = 569

(700)(0)(10)
T1−1 = = 0 ; T1−2 = 291 ; T1−3 = 409
(0)(10) + (347)(7) + (569)(6)

(200)(0)(7)
T2−1 = = 0 ; T2−2 = 110; T2−3 = 90
(0)(7) + (347)(10) + (569)(5)

T3−1 = 0 ; T3− 2 = 0 ; T3−3 = 0

09/18/2012 50
Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Zone-to-Zone trips: second iteration

Dest. 1 2 3 Total
Origin
1 0 291 409 700
2 0 110 90 200
3 0 0 0 0
Total 0 401 499 900
Computed Aj 0 401 499 900
Given Aj 0 400 500 900

09/18/2012 ALMOST EQUAL 51

Trip Distribution
Gravity Model

ƒ Further iterations are not necessary since the desired

productions and the zonal productions calculated by the
model are exactly same as well as the desired attractions
and the zonal attractions calculated by the model are
almost equal.

ƒ Since these calculations are done by computer software,

we usually set an acceptable limit of error (e.g., 1%, 2%,
etc.) for the convergence to stop the calculations.

ƒ The model becomes a calibrated model after the final

iteration.

09/18/2012 52
Model Step #3…

Mode Choice
Mode Choice
€ In this phase of travel-demand forecasting, we
analyze people’s decisions regarding mode of travel:

€ Auto
€ Bus
€ Train, etc.

€ In the flow-chart of the travel demand forecasting

process, mode choice comes after trip distribution.

09/18/2012 54
Mode Choice
€ However, mode choice analysis can be done at various point in
the forecasting process- during trip generation, after trip
generation but before trip distribution, and after trip distribution
phase.

€ The most common point is after trip distribution, because the

information on where the trips are going allows the mode choice
relationship to compare the alternative transportation services
competing for users.

€ Before we can predict how travel will be split among the modes
available to the users, we must analyze the factors that the affect
the choices that people make.

09/18/2012 55
Mode Choice
€ Three factors affect the mode choice of the travelers:

€ The characteristics of the trip maker (e.g., family

income, number of autos available, family size,
residential density)

€ The characteristics of the trip (e.g., trip distance,

time of travel)

€ The characteristics of the transportation system

(e.g., riding time, excess time)
09/18/2012 56
Mode Choice

● The mode choice models can be classified into three

broad categories:

● Direct Generation models (during trip

generation)

● Trip End models (after trip generation, before

trip distribution)

● Trip Interchange models (after trip distribution)

09/18/2012 57
Mode Choice
Direct Generation Models

‰ In direct generation models, transit trips are

generated directly, by estimating either total
person trips or auto driver trips.

‰ These mode choice models are developed during

the trip generation phase.

‰ This approach is generally appropriate to smaller

urban areas without major transit services.

09/18/2012 58
Mode Choice
Direct Generation Models

Direct generation works in a two mode situation:

generation of auto trips and transit trips
09/18/2012 59
Mode Choice
Trip End Models

‰ Trip end models are

developed using trip
generation models and
are based on land use
and socioeconomic
characteristics of the
zone.
‰ They do not, however,
incorporate the quality of
High income, 2+ auto ownership,
available transport transit usage is zero.
services.

09/18/2012 60
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

‰ Trip Interchange mode

choice models are
developed after trip
distribution phase.

ˆ They incorporate system level of service variables

such as
● Relative travel time
● Relative travel cost
● Economic status of traveler
● Relative travel service

09/18/2012 61
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

¬ Look at this mode

choice model:
ÎWhen auto in-vehicle
time is 15 min less than
transit in-vehicle time;
auto usage costs 25
cents more than transit
usage; excess time for
auto is 3 min more than
transit, then transit
usage is 37%.
Ref: FHWA/UMTA (1977)

09/18/2012 62
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

‰ This model is an
example of a family of
models using a logit
formulation.

‰ The term logit refers to

the S-shaped logit curve
used to fit the model
data.
09/18/2012 63
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

‰ The logit formulation is a share model (as was the

gravity model) that divides the person trips among
the various modes depending on each mode’s
relative desirability (utility) for any given trip.
‰ Modes are said to be more desirable if they are
faster, cheaper, or have other more favorable
features than competitive modes.
‰ The better a mode is, the more utility it has for the
potential traveler.

09/18/2012 64
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models
Utility and Disutility Functions

z Utility function: measures satisfaction derived from

choices
z Disutility function: represents generalized costs of
each choice
z Usually expressed as the linear weighted sum of the
independent variables of their transformation
V = a0 + a1X1 + a2X2 + ….. + arXr

V: utility derived from choice

Xr: attributes
ar: model parameters

09/18/2012 65
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

ƒ The Logit Model of mode choice is expressed

as follows:
V (i)
e
P= n

∑e
i
V (r )

r =1

ÎWhere,
Pi = probability of using mode i
V(i) = utility of mode i
V(r) = utility of mode r
n = number of modes in consideration
09/18/2012 66
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models
EXAMPLE

ƒ The calibrated utility functions for auto and transit

travel are:
Auto: Va = -0.3 – 0.04X – 0.1Y - 0.03C
Transit: Vt = -0.04X – 0.1Y – 0.03C
Where,
Vi = utility function of mode i
X = in-vehicle travel time (min)
Y = out-of-vehicle travel time (min)
C = ratio of cost of travel/income (cents/$)

09/18/2012 67
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

ƒ A traffic zone has the following characteristics:

Auto Travel Transit Travel

In-vehicle time (min) 15 40
Out-of-vehicle time (min) 5 10
Travel cost (cents) 300 75

ÔWhat is the probability that a person with an

income of $10,000 will travel by transit?
09/18/2012 68
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models
SOLUTION
ƒ The utility of using auto:
Va = -0.3 – 0.04 (15) – 0.1 (5) - 0.03 (300/10000)= -1.4
ƒ The utility of using transit:
Vt = -0.04 (40) – 0.1 (10) – 0.03 (300/10000) = -2.6

Î Then, the probability of the trip maker using transit is

Vt −2.6
e e
P= = = 0.23 or
e +e e +e −1.4 − 2.6
t Va Vt

09/18/2012 69
Model Step #4…
Traffic Assignment
(Route Choice)
Traffic Assignment

€ The fourth and the final step of the travel demand

forecasting process is Traffic Assignment.
€ The trip matrices (O-D) developed during generation,
distribution, and mode choice phases are used as
inputs for this step.
€ The outputs are the traffic volumes on the street
network of the study area.

09/18/2012 71
Traffic Assignment

• Traffic Assignment to
Network

09/18/2012 72
Traffic Assignment

‰ Traffic Assignment is the procedure by which the

planner predicts the paths the trips will use.
‰ For example, if a trip goes from a residential area to
the university area, the model predicts the specific
streets or transit routes to be used to complete that
trip.
‰ Traffic assignment process begins by constructing a
map representing the vehicle and transit networks in
the study area, because the model assigns traffic on
these networks.

09/18/2012 73
 Base Map of a City Traffic Assignment Network
Map for the same City

09/18/2012 74
Traffic Assignment

‰ There are mainly two types of traffic assignment

procedures
€All-or-Nothing assignment, and
€Capacity Restrained assignment
‰ Both of these assignment procedures consist of two
steps:
ƒ Determination of the minimum path
ƒ Assign/load trips onto the minimum path.
09/18/2012 75
Traffic Assignment
Determination of Minimum Path:

ƒ It is assumed that the travelers want to use the

minimum impedance route between two points.
ƒ Impedance can be time, distance, cost, etc.
ƒ The basic rule is that the “users choose the route
that minimizes their own travel time”.

09/18/2012 76
Traffic Assignment
Determination of Minimum Path (cont..):

Fig (a) shows a simple street network. The values within the
parentheses are the travel times on different links (roadway
sections).
Figure (b) shows the minimum paths from Node (intersection)
1. This type of diagram is also called “minimum tree” or
“skim tree”.
09/18/2012 77
Traffic Assignment
Assign/Load Trips onto the Minimum Path.

Person Trips vs. Vehicle Trips

ƒ Trip generation step calculates total person

trips
ƒ Trip assignment deals with volume not person
trips
ƒ Need to adjust person trips to reflect vehicle
trips
ƒ Understand units during trip generation phase

09/18/2012 78
Traffic Assignment
Assign/Load Trips onto the Minimum Path.

Person Trips vs. Vehicle Trips

z Usually adjusted by average auto occupancy (average

number of persons in a car).
Example:
If:
z average auto occupancy = 1.2
z number of person trips from zone 1 = 550

So:
Vehicle trips = 550 person trips/1.2 persons per vehicle =
458.33 vehicle trips

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Traffic Assignment
Assign/Load Trips onto the Minimum Path.

Time of Day Patterns

ƒ Trip generation usually based on 24-hour period

ƒ LOS calculations usually based on hourly time

period

ƒ Hour, particularly peak, is often of more interest

than daily

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Traffic Assignment
Assign/Load Trips onto the Minimum Path.

Time of Day Patterns

‰ Common time periods

z Morning peak

z Afternoon peak

z Off-peak

‰ Calculation of trips by time of day

z Use of factors (e.g., morning peak may be 11% of daily
traffic)
z Estimate trip generation by hour

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Traffic Assignment
All-or-Nothing Assignment

‰ All-or-Nothing assignment technique allocates

the entire volume interchanging between pairs of
zones to the minimum path calculated on the
basis of free-flow link impedances (usually travel
times).
‰ After all interchange volumes are assigned, the
flow on a particular link is computed by summing
all interzonal flows that happens to include that
link on their minimum paths.
‰ Let’s discuss the following EXAMPLE.

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All-or- Nothing Traffic Assignment

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

‰ We know that as flow increases toward capacity, the

average stream speed decreases from the free-flow
speed to the speed at capacity.
‰ In all-or-nothing assignment, the interzonal flows are
assigned to the minimum paths computed on the basis of
free-flow link impedances (usually travel times).
‰ But if the link flows were at the levels dictated by the
assignment (consider links 4-3, 3-4, 3-2, 4-1 of the
previous example), the link speeds would be lower and
the link travel times would be higher than those
corresponding to free-flow conditions.

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

‰ As a result, the minimum paths computed prior

to trip assignment may not be the minimum
paths after the trips are assigned.
‰ In capacity-restrained assignment technique, the
interzonal trips are assigned to the minimum
paths in increments and link travel times are
updated before each incremental loading of trips
onto the network.

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

‰ The travel time, TQ on a particular link at a traffic

flow, Q can be calculated using the following
equation developed by the Bureau of Public Roads:
⎡ ⎛ Q ⎞ ⎤
4

T = T ⎢ 1 + 0.15⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎥
⎢⎣ ⎝Q ⎠ ⎥⎦
Q 0
max

Where,
TQ = travel time at traffic flow Q
T0 = free-flow travel time
Q = link flow
Qmax = capacity of the link
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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

EXAMPLE
10 min
1 2

Zone 1 2 3 4
12
5 min

min 1 -- 300 500 200

6 min
2 200 -- 500 600
18
min
4 3 3 500 800 -- 400

9 min 4 400 500 600 --

Street Network Trip Matrix

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Find the Minimum Path and assign 50% trips:

0 10
150
1 2

10 0
100
1 2
250 + 100

4 250 3 300

5 14

Node 1
Node 2
4 3

12 6
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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Find the Minimum Path and assign 50% trips:

14 6

1 2 12
5

1 Node 4 2

250

200
250
4 3
250 +
9 0
200
4 3
Node 3 300
0 9

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Find the Link Volume after assigning 50% trips:

250
1 2

550
800 650

4 3

1000

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Calculate the new link travel times:

⎡ ⎛ Q ⎞ ⎤
4

T = T ⎢ 1 + 0.15⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎥
⎢⎣ ⎝Q ⎠ ⎥⎦
Q 0
max

Assuming capacity of each link to be 600 veh/hr,

t12 = 10[1+0.15(250/600)4] = 10.1 min.

Similarly, t13 = 18 min. t14 = 7.4 min.

t23 = 7.2 min. t24 = 13.3 min.
t34 = 19.4 min.
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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î At the beginning of 2nd Iteration, the network with travel

times is as follows:

10.1 min
1 2

13.3 min
7.4 min

7.2 min
18 min

4 3

19.4 min
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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Find the Minimum Path and assign the remaining 50% trips:

0 10.1
150 + 250
1 2

100

4 3
Node 1
7.4 17.3

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Find the Minimum Path and assign the remaining 50% trips:

10.1 0
100
1 2

300

4 3
Node 2
13.3 7.2

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Find the Minimum Path and assign the remaining 50% trips:

17.3 7.2
250

1 2

Node 3

4 3
200

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Find the Minimum Path and assign the remaining 50% trips:

7.4 13.3

1 Node 4 2

200
250

4 3

300

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

Î Find the Link Volume after assigning 100% trips:

250 + 750 = 1000

1 2
800 + 300 = 1100

650 + 1150 = 1800

550 + 550 = 1100

0+0=0

4 3

1000 + 500 = 1500

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Traffic Assignment
Capacity-Restrained Assignment

€ This example problem assigned 50% traffic in one increment.

€ This was done only to minimize the hand calculation efforts and
only to show how the capacity restrained method works.
€ In reality,
ƒ the total assignment is done in 4 or 5 increments (20% to
25% trips at a time), and
ƒ The street network consists of thousands of links and
hundreds of nodes.

Î We can easily imagine the massive computing efforts required

to solve real-world transport modeling problems.

Î Consequently, the calculations are never performed with hands

and sophisticated transport modeling software are available to
perform all the necessary calculations.

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