Crash Course on Climate Change

The former chief of the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Command once called climate change our

country’s single biggest security threat.1 The world leader of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis,

put it this way: “The violence that exists in the human heart is also manifest in the symptoms of

illness that we see in the Earth.”2 Greta Thunberg described climate change as the largest crisis

humanity has ever faced.3 So, what is climate change? How does it work, and what caused it?

Why might it, as some popular media claims, be a lot worse than expected?

To understand the complexities of climate change, we must first understand the basics.

The root of climate change is a gas called carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is at the foundation of

many processes essential to life, and has been emitted naturally for millennia — for instance,

through humans breathing, plants decomposing, and releases from the oceans. Carbon dioxide

naturally cycles between the Earth’s land surface; soil; rocks; the oceans; and the atmosphere.

Carbon moves via a slow cycle and a fast cycle. The fast cycle occurs on an annual basis,

as plants on land and in the oceans use carbon for photosynthesis in order to grow. It is then

released through plant decay, decomposition, or burning, or through the respiration (breathing)

of animals that eat plants.4

The slow cycle moves carbon between ancient rocks, oceans, soil, and the atmosphere.

This happens over millions of years through a number of processes. Carbon dioxide dissolves in

— and ventilates out of — the ocean. Carbon in the atmosphere combines with water and falls to

the Earth’s surface as rain, which dissolves the rocks (a process called weathering). Volcanoes

1
From Bender, 2013
2
From Packett, 2015
3
From Nilsen, 2019
4
From Riebeek, 2011
release carbon to the atmosphere when they erupt.5 Without human interference, the carbon in

these rocks would leak slowly into the atmosphere through volcanic activity over millions of

years.

The rocks that store most of the Earth’s carbon originated millions of years ago. Between

280 and 360 million years ago, trees the size of houses and colossal ferns covered the planet, and

sheets of green algae blanketed the seas. This era was named the “Carboniferous Period” for its

abundance of carbon-rich plant life.6 However, because decomposers had not evolved yet, when

these plants died, they sunk to the bottom of swamps and oceans and remained there.7 As

millennia passed, more and more rock, sand, mud and clay was piled on top of these layers. The

land plants in swamps were squeezed so much that the water came out of them, and they turned

to a spongy material called peat, and then, millennia later, to coal.8 The marine algae and

microscopic marine organisms sunk to the bottom of the oceans, and were squeezed so much that

they were pushed upward and became trapped in reservoirs. These turned into oil and natural

gas.9

For millennia, most of these fossils remained underground and out of harm’s way.

Up until about 1750, carbon dioxide was not a problem because all of the CO2 that was

naturally released was absorbed by natural sources—mostly by the ocean, but also by trees and

soils.10 Thus, for millennia, the carbon cycle was in balance.

This all changed in around 1750, when Europe and the U.S. started to burn these

Carboniferous-era fossils to power machines for manufacturing and transportation.

5
From Shapley, 2010 & Riebeek, 2011
6
From Climate, 2017
7
From Jusay, Mayberry & Yu, 2011
8
From Rafferty, 2017
9
From Mac, 2016
10
From Lindsey, 2019
 By burning coal, oil, and natural gas, humans began releasing vast amounts of carbon —

carbon that took millions of years to accumulate — into the atmosphere. In other words, we

began to move carbon from the slow cycle to the fast cycle, emitting much more than natural

sources could absorb.

About 70 percent of our carbon emissions since the Industrial Revolution have come

from fossil fuels (i.e. from electricity and heat, agriculture, and transportation) while around 30

percent have come from deforestation.11 Deforestation has two major effects: first, releasing

carbon by cutting down trees, and second, removing trees, which suck carbon out of the

atmosphere through photosynthesis.

So, you might be wondering: how does all of this change our climate?

When certain gases are not absorbed by natural sources, they accumulate in the

atmosphere.

Normally, when the Sun’s radiation hits the Earth’s surface, a portion of it is reflected

back out to space. Some atmospheric gases — like oxygen — are transparent to both incoming

radiation from the Sun and outgoing radiation from the Earth’s surface. This means they do not

trap any of this radiation in the atmosphere, keeping the Earth’s energy balance stable.

However, “greenhouse gases” — like carbon dioxide and water vapor — work

differently. Although they are transparent to incoming solar radiation — letting energy in from

the sun — they absorb radiation from the Earth’s surface. Thus, they trap heat in the lower levels

of the atmosphere, warming the planet. This leads to what is called “the greenhouse effect,” the

primary cause for the planet-wide warming we are now witnessing.12

11
From Lallanilla, 2019
12
From Denchak, 2019
 There are currently more carbon dioxide molecules in the atmosphere (per million

molecules) than ever before in human history.13 By the end of this century, the world will likely

warm at least 2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) as a result, and probably more.

Why will we see this warming by the end of the century, and not immediately? It all goes

back to the oceans. To understand this, you must first know that cold, salty water is denser than

warm, less salty water. This difference in density drives an ocean “conveyor belt,” which

continually replaces deep ocean water with water from the surface, and replaces surface water

with water rising from deeper depths. Called the “thermohaline circulation,” this process is also

responsible for cold, salty water from the poles moving toward the tropics, and warm surface

waters from near the tropics moving toward the poles. Carbon dioxide is moved through the

oceans through this very mechanism.14 Because of how slow this circulation is, it takes a few

decades for carbon emitted by humans to reach the atmosphere.15 This paints a scary picture,

because it means that, even if we stopped emitting today, we would still be committed to decades

more warming from previous carbon emissions.

Different scientists predict different amounts of warming based on current trends. The

most knowledgeable group of experts — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

— has temperature predictions ranging from 1 to 5.4 degrees Celsius of warming (compared to

before the Industrial Revolution) by 2100. Most agree that the largest cause for uncertainty is not

the science of the natural world, but the unpredictability of human behavior.16 Whether we

drastically reduce our emissions or continue on our current trajectory will seal the fate of the

Earth.

13
From Freedman, 2013
14
From Rahmstorf, 2006
15
From Dahlman & Lindsey, 2018
16
From Kunreuther & Gupta, 2014
 Another cause for uncertainty in climate change predictions exists in “feedback loops.”

These are scenarios under which, after a certain threshold of warming, negative environmental

effects begin to spin out of control. One such feedback loop is the ice-albedo feedback. As

mentioned earlier, a fraction of incoming solar radiation is reflected back out to space. The

amount of radiation that is reflected is determined by how reflective the Earth’s surface is. White

objects reflect more energy, while dark objects absorb more. (If you’ve ever leaned against a

black car on a hot day, you’ve witnessed this first-hand.) The reflectivity of something is referred

to as its “albedo.” On a planetary scale, Earth’s albedo depends on clear/white masses like ice

caps, glaciers, and ice sheets. As climate change warms the Earth, masses of ice melt. As ice

melts, the Earth’s albedo decreases. Less energy is reflected, more is absorbed, the Earth warms

more, and the cycle repeats itself.17

Another feedback loop is the “permafrost-methane” feedback. Permafrost is ground

(including rocks and soil) that remains frozen year-round. Most is found in high-latitude regions

in and around the Arctic. Currently, the Arctic is warming more rapidly than any other region on

Earth. Thus, permafrost is thawing at unprecedented rates. When layers of permafrost thaw, this

wakes up microbes in the soil that decompose organic matter. This decomposition releases CO2

as well as methane, a greenhouse gas that has a warming potential around 30 times that of CO2.

As atmospheric CO2 and methane levels rise, the Earth will warm more, causing more

permafrost thawing, and so on. Scientists have historically underestimated the effects of

permafrost, and the IPCC only incorporated permafrost into its temperature projections a few

17
From Ahlenius, 2007
years ago.18 New research suggests that we will need to cut emissions eight years sooner than

IPCC models project just to account for permafrost thawing.19

Arguably the most important feedback loop relates to the stuff of life: water. A warmer

atmosphere can hold more water vapor. It’s a basic property of physics: the amount of water

vapour a given amount of air can hold is directly proportional to its temperature. Thus, an

atmosphere warmed by climate change is capable of holding more water vapour molecules. (This

is why climate change produces more extreme storms, as all that water is rained down in

catastrophic precipitation events.) But, as mentioned previously, water vapor itself is a

greenhouse gas. Water vapor itself traps heat in the atmosphere, causing warming. So, as the

atmosphere warms, it will be able to hold more water vapor, which will warm it even more.20

At this point, you may be wondering: is there reason for hope? Despair not. The nations

of the world have come together in the past to remedy a global environmental problem, and there

is no reason why we cannot do the same in the face of climate change. In the 1980s, scientists

discovered a gaping hole in the ozone layer of the Earth’s atmosphere that appeared over

Antarctica.

The ozone layer is found in the stratosphere, the layer of atmosphere located between 6

and 30 miles above Earth’s surface.21 It was depleted (creating the “ozone hole”) as a result of

three conditions: excess chlorine; cold temperatures; and sunlight.

Ozone levels rapidly decrease each year in August and September, so the ozone hole is at

its deepest between late September and early October. It appears over Antarctica because of the

extremely cold conditions in the polar stratosphere during the winter and spring months.22

18
From Leahy, 2019
19
From Fountain, 2017
20
From Hausfather, 2008
21
From Gleason, 2008
 At this point, you may be wondering, why does this hole in the ozone layer matter?

Ozone is a compound that is fundamentally important to life on Earth as we know it. It

protects organisms from the power of the sun’s ultraviolet (UV) rays, much like sunscreen.

Without the ozone layer, the sun’s radiation would damage the DNA of many animals and

plants, and many plants would die, which would cause the food chain to collapse.23 The bottom

line is: ozone is important.

In the late twentieth century, scientists traced ozone depletion to a number of products

that contained chemicals called “chlorofluorocarbons” (CFCs). They were mostly coolants in

refrigerants and air conditioners, foam-blowing agents, and aerosol sprays like hairsprays.24

In 1987, members of the U.N. ratified the Montreal Protocol, which would gradually

phase out all CFCs in the following few years. It was the first universally ratified treaty in U.N.

history. Ever since then, global CFC use has plummeted, and the ozone hole has been gradually

shrinking (although it may appear bigger or smaller during a given year because of temperature

fluctuations — recall that the ozone hole depends on cold temperatures to form).25 The ozone

layer is expected to have healed fully by 2060.26

As the Montreal Protocol demonstrates, the world’s nations are capable of banding

together to unify under a common rallying cry, in the name of environmental protection. Earth’s

most intelligent life is capable of facing the most foreboding existential threat it has ever had to

grapple with, of making sacrifices to ensure an inhabitable planet for our children. And our work

starts now.

22
From Solomon, 2004
23
From Dunbar, 2016
24
From Nunez, 2019
25
From Leahy, 2017
26
From Mosbergen, 2018
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