Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy

Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s

Response Strategy

Brig. (Retd.) Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,**

Umar Farooq Khan*** and Usama Nizamani****

Abstract
Lately, humanity has been witnessing the most difficult times in its
known history in shape of ‘COVID-19’. The entire spectrum of life
stands suspended and affected in terms of politics, economy,
society, psychology, etc. Against this backdrop, this paper analyses
the unprecedented changes wrought by the epidemic and examines
future trends that may become the ‘new normal’ in the post-
COVID-19 world. This is followed by the sociopolitical and
economic impact of the pandemic on Pakistan and the state’s
response is discussed. The study also looks at the different
opportunities and challenges that have risen for Pakistan as a
result of this virus coupled with policy recommendations for the
country to better cope with similar pandemics in the future.

Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Pakistan, Public Health, Governance.


The author is Acting President and Director Research at the Islamabad Policy
Research Institute (IPRI). He is also a PhD Scholar at the Peace and Conflict
Studies (PCS), Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS), National
University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Pakistan.
**
The author is Research Fellow at IPRI. He is pursuing PhD in International
Relations (IR) from the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University
(QAU), Pakistan.
***
The author is Assistant Research Officer at IPRI. He holds a Masters in
International Studies and Diplomacy from the School of Oriental and African
Studies (SOAS), University of London, UK.
****
The author is Junior Consultant at IPRI. He holds MPhil in Strategic Studies from
the National Defence University (NDU), Pakistan.

____________________________________

@ Islamabad Policy Research Institute.

JoCA  Vol. 4 (1&2): 29-50.

Journal of Current Affairs 29

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani

Introduction

C
OVID-19, known as Coronavirus, has caught the world unaware in
terms of healthcare preparedness and impact on daily lives. Global
powers like China and the United States (US) have dealt with the
pandemic differently. The impact on economic and social activities, coupled
with fear, has resulted in staggering losses to the global economy, whilst also
highlighting human security inadequacies and warped spending priorities of
the world. What started in the Chinese city of Wuhan in early December 2019
has now grown into a global health emergency spread to nearly every
country. According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, so far, the
disease has killed more than 655,500 people and infected more than 16
million.1

In Pakistan too, confirmed cases have been surging and by July 2,

2020, there were more than 217,809 confirmed COVID-19 cases, making the
country a global hotspot for the novel virus as it stands in the top twelve
countries with the most infected cases. Nearly half of the cases have been
reported from Punjab and Sindh alone, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and
Balochistan. The surge in the Coronavirus cases comes in the wake of the
federal government’s decision to ease lockdown, in the hope of saving an
already underperforming economy, and aiming to implement ‘smart
lockdown’, whereby specific areas are sealed in order to curb spread of the
virus. A logarithmic representation of the trajectory of COVID-19 cases in
Pakistan is shown in Figures 1 and 2:

1
“Timeline: How the New Coronavirus Spread,” Al Jazeera, accessed April 14,
2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-
spread-200126061554884.html.

30 Vol. 4, Nos. 1 & 2

 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy

Figure-1
COVID-19 Dashboard for Pakistan

Source: “COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
at Johns Hopkins University,” Coronavirus Resource Center, Johns Hopkins
University, accessed July 29, 2020, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

Figure-2
COVID-19 Outbreak Evolution in Pakistan

Source: “New Cases of COVID-19 in World Countries,” Coronavirus Resource Center,

Johns Hopkins University, accessed June 16, 2020,
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases.

Post-COVID-19 World Outlook

The outbreak of Coronavirus is an unprecedented event, which has and will
continue to have profound impact on how the world functions. While it is too early
to make definitive conclusions, following are some of the likely future trends:

Journal of Current Affairs 31

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
Decline in Globalisation

The pandemic may further diminish the support for globalisation, which was
already being eroded post-2016, after Brexit and ascendancy of Donald J.
Trump as the President of the US. It is less likely that the world would return
to the idea of mutually beneficial globalisation that defined the early period
of Twenty-first Century. Globalisation, in the form of increased travelling
and economic interdependence, has played a major role in the rapid spread
of the virus around the world. States may become insular in outlook, leading
‘to [possible] shifts in political and economic power in ways that will become
apparent only later.’2 But, it is still too early to say as ‘this is not yet the end
of an interconnected world. The pandemic itself is proof of our
interdependence.’3 For instance, the World Health Organization (WHO) was
able to timely ‘internationalize’ the spread of the virus by bringing it to the
global community’s attention,4 though Trump continues to hold it responsible
for late and inaccurate response. Unlike the past, China too alerted the
international community about the virus in a timely manner, which was
consistent with the 2007 revised requirements of the WHO. China also made
public the genome of the Coronavirus as early as January 9, 2020, which gave
a head start to the global experts to develop tests for the virus. 5

Acceleration in Government Intervention and Power Shift from West to

East
Looking at current trends such as travel bans, limited medicines, and
protectionism, the pandemic may strengthen the state and reinforce
nationalism. Governments have adopted emergency measures to manage

2
Johan Allen, Nicholas Burns, Laurie Garrett, Richard N. Haass, G. John Ikenberry,
Kishore Mahbubani, Shivshankar Menon, Robin Niblett, Joseph S. Nye Jr,
Shannon K. O’Neil, Kori Schake and Stephen M. Walt, “How the World Will
Look after the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Foreign Policy, March 20, 2020,
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/20/world-order-after-coroanvirus-pandemic/.
3
Ibid.
4
William J. Long, “Coronavirus Puts Systems for International Cooperation to the
Test,” United States Institute of Peace, March 30, 2020,
https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/03/coronavirus-puts-systems-international-
cooperation-test.
5
“Coronavirus: What Did China Do about Early Outbreak?” BBC News, June 9,
2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52573137.

32 Vol. 4, Nos. 1 & 2

 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy
the crisis, and many will be loath to relinquish their new powers when the
crisis is over. COVID-19 may also accelerate the shift in power and
influence from the West/Euro-Atlantic to the East. South Korea and
Singapore have responded well, and China has reacted effectively after its
early mistakes. The response in Europe and the US was slow and desultory
by comparison, further tarnishing the aura of the Western brand. 6 This
means that in future, citizens would rely more on national governments to
protect them against bio-threats/emergencies than international
help/guarantees. Also, there will be greater demand by the global
community to spend more on health at the national and international level.

Intensification of Sino-US Fallout

According to Jonathan Stromseth, great power rivalry and competition
between the US and China will continue. He observes that like the:

…previous plagues - including the influenza epidemic of

1918-1919 - did not end great power rivalry nor ushered in a
new era of global cooperation. The crisis will likely contribute
to the ongoing deterioration of Sino-American relations and
the weakening of European integration.7

This has been evident in the aftermath of the COVID-19 spread with
China resorting to damage control by sending medical supplies and teams
to Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa, with some terming its actions as
‘politics of generosity.’ 8 Furthermore, many Chinese Ambassadors were
summoned by their host countries with allegations of spreading false
information. On the other hand, the US has used the pandemic to put
renewed pressure on China for obfuscating facts about the spread of the
virus. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo scuttled a communiqué after
other world powers refused to use the term ‘Wuhan/Chinese Virus’ and

6
Allen et al., “How the World Will Look after the Coronavirus Pandemic.”
7
Ibid.
8
Jonathan Stromseth, “US-China Rivalry after COVID-19: Clues and Early
Indications from Southeast Asia,” (Blog) Brookings, May 14, 2020,
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/05/14/us-china-rivalry-
after-covid-19-clues-and-early-indications-from-southeast-asia/.

Journal of Current Affairs 33

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
stopping funding to the WHO for being easy on China. 9 With President
Trump in campaign mode for the upcoming presidential elections, it is most
likely that he will continue to up the ante against China to appease his
constituents.

Deterioration of Traditional Alliances and the US Role in Global Affairs

The pandemic may further deteriorate and even finish whatever was left of the
transatlantic relationship between the US and the European Union (EU). Since
the outbreak of the pandemic, there has been little to no cooperation between the
two sides. In fact, as mentioned above, the G-7 ended up not issuing a statement
because of Trump administration’s insistence on calling out the ‘Wuhan/Chinese
Virus.’ Even within the EU, there have been open complaints of lack of a
common EU strategy for the fight against the pandemic. The pandemic and the
lackluster role played by the US globally will significantly diminish its
credibility. Despite being the world’s greatest economic and military power, the
US was unable to play a leading role in setting the agenda on how to deal with
the spread of the virus, nationally and globally. In contrast, other smaller
countries like South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have been more effective in
their response. International cooperation may remain shaky too as the COVID-
19 pandemic has shown that global powers - China and the US - remain
economically interdependent and strategically competitive. This international
competition instead of cooperation would be the ‘new normal’ in post-COVID-
19 era. China-US cooperation and G-20’s response in a video summit in March
fell short of desired momentum, fuelling fears of de-globalisation and insularity.

Strengthening of China’s Role in Global Affairs

The COVID-19 pandemic may further strengthen and reinforce China’s

standing and leadership role in international affairs. As the US starts to lose its
credibility as a true global leader, China-centric globalisation might become
palatable for the world. A lot will depend on who comes out of the crisis as the
winner and with a vaccine to cure the world. Furthermore, even if China is able
to come out of this crisis, it will have to do some major damage control for

9
Stromseth, “US-China Rivalry after COVID-19.”

34 Vol. 4, Nos. 1 & 2

 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy
acting effectively at the start of the pandemic. In addition, a decisive factor
would be the state of the Chinese economy and how it fares in a decisively
dismal global economic outlook. Even though the Chinese economy was
slowing down even before the virus outbreak, the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) has projected a positive growth for China this year, which is a good
omen.10

Drastic Impact of COVID-19 on Global Energy

Energy politics and economic development might change significantly,

especially after the oil price crash and increased salience of alternative energy
solutions. According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the
global pandemic will have a shocking effect on all major energy fuels. The
lockdowns implemented around the world, after the outbreak of the virus, have
cut demand for all fuels, especially oil, used for transportation. Furthermore,
demand for energy is also down as most of the large industrial units, non-
essential businesses and other institutions have remained closed. According to
the report, as a result of the lockdowns worldwide, the global energy demand
has experienced a 6 per cent decline – seven times larger than the adverse effect
of the 2008 financial crisis.11

Impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan

Economic

As the global economy braces itself for a recession due to COVID-19, the
impact would be felt acutely by developing countries like Pakistan. Even
before the current pandemic, experts had warned that in Pakistan, the number
of people living under poverty would increase from 69 million in June 2018 to
87 million by June 2020, indicating a 26 per cent increase due to low economic

10
“After COVID-19: China’s Role in the World and U.S.-China Relations,” Council
on Foreign Relations, April 16, 2020, https://www.cfr.org/conference-calls/after-
covid-19-chinas-role-world-and-us-china-relations.
11
IEA, Global Energy Review 2020, report (Paris: International Energy Agency,
2020), https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-
2020?utm_campaign=IEA%20newsletters&utm_source=SendGrid&utm_medium
=Email.

Journal of Current Affairs 35

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
growth and double-digit inflation.12 New lending from the IMF, following the
G-20’s debt relief plan, may offer temporary reprieve, but both the present and
future are unequivocally dire, particularly for the poorest. In March 2020, the
federal and provincial governments had announced partial or complete
lockdowns. In economic terms, this meant that factories not producing
essential items were closed.
As far as unemployment is concerned, it is estimated that between 12.3
million and 18.5 million people will be unemployed due to the pandemic in
Pakistan. According to the Pakistan Workers’ Federation, more than half a
million workers in the garment and textile industry have lost their jobs in the
Punjab province alone.13 According to the IMF, Pakistan’s real Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by -1.5 per cent against the
original target of 3.3 for the current fiscal year (FY) and 2.0 per cent in 2021.14
Pakistan’s economy is expected to contract around 1.5 to 2 per cent in FY 2021
with 5 per cent loss of output in GDP.15 The World Bank (WB) and Asian
Development Bank’s (ADB) grant of USD 238 million,16 and USD 52 million17
respectively, and reprieve provided by the G-20 relief will be helpful in the
short to medium term.

Governance

12
Hafiz A. Pasha, “Rising Poverty,” Business Recorder, December 10, 2019,
https://www.brecorder.com/2019/12/10/551927/rising-poverty/.
13
“Pakistan: Workers Face Health, Economic Risks,” Human Rights Watch, April 1,
2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/01/pakistan-workers-face-health-
economic-risks.
14
International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook,” accessed April 14,
2020, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-
2020.
15
Sakib Sherani, “Evaluating the Response,” Dawn, April 24, 2020,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1551778/evaluating-the-response.
16
The World Bank, “World Bank Fast-Tracks Support for COVID-19 (Coronavirus)
Response to Pakistan,” press release, April 2, 2020,
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/04/02/world-bank-fast-
tracks-support-for-covid-19-coronavirus-response-to-pakistan.
17
Asian Development Bank, “ADB Repurposes $50 Million from Pakistan’s
National Disaster Risk Management Fund to Help Combat COVID-19 Pandemic,”
press release, April 9, 2020, https://www.adb.org/news/adb-repurposes-50-million-
pakistans-ndrmf-help-combat-covid-19.

36 Vol. 4, Nos. 1 & 2

 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy
The COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan and lack of a cohesive, well-coordinated
early response has reflected governance gaps in the face of an unprecedented
threat. From the very start, there has been a lack of coordination between the
federal and provincial governments, which has led to an inopportune blame
game between the federation and the provinces. Also, lack of involvement of
local governments has hampered outreach to communities for provision of
timely healthcare and relief. The government needs to display better
understanding of dangers of exponential spread of pandemic along with a
corresponding preventive strategy.

Religious

There is a need to take proper precautions while observing religious rituals.

One such precaution is to ban congregational prayers in mosques in order to
disallow large gatherings. Mosques have been shut down in a number of
Muslim countries including Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Pakistan, however, in
the beginning shied away from taking similar measures. Government officials
only banned congregational prayers on Fridays. It should be noted that various
meetings were held between government officials and religious leaders but to
no avail. It was difficult for the government to implement its policies in the
face of opposition from right wing/religious groups. Though, all prayers have
been allowed now with protective measures still the danger of transmission of
virus remains alive.

Social

The COVID-19 outbreak has exposed the high incidence of social

inequality in Pakistan. Government spending on health is 0.8 per cent of
GDP,18 while the WHO recommends a minimum spending of 6 per cent
of the GDP. 19 Unequal access to public goods is a major problem since

18
WHO, Primary Health Care Systems (PRIMASYS): Comprehensive Case Study
from Pakistan, report (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2017),
http://origin.who.int/alliance-hpsr/projects/AHPSR-PRIMASYS-Pakistan-
comprehensive-v2.pdf.
19
Ke Xu, Agnès Soucat, Joseph Kutzin, Andrew Siroka, Maria Aranguren Garcia,
Julien Dupuy, Natalja Eigo, Dongxue Li, Chandika Indikadahena, Hapsatou Touré,
Hélène Barroy and Gabriela Flores, Global Spending on Health: A World in
Transition (Global Report), report (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2019),

Journal of Current Affairs 37

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
the poor have far less access to quality healthcare, education and jobs,
hence, are more prone to the shocks of an unprecedented pandemic.
Pakistan’s ranking on the Human Development Index (HDI) is 152 out
189 (Figure 3):

Figure-3
HDI Trends for Pakistan, Bangladesh & Nepal, 1900-2018

Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 2019. Inequalities in Human Development in

the 21st Century, Country Profile: Pakistan, report (New York: United Nations
Development Programme, 2019),
http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/PAK.pdf.

COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan

https://www.who.int/health_financing/documents/health-expenditure-report-
2019/en/.

38 Vol. 4, Nos. 1 & 2

 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy

Challenges

Poor Health Sector Capacity

As mentioned earlier, the government, at present, is spending 0.8 per cent of
the GDP on health. There is a need of complete overhaul of the health sector
and capacity building of medical professionals. The tug-of-war between the
Pakistan Medical Commission and the newly restored Pakistan Medical and
Dental Commission (PMDC) has rendered oversight, of the health sector and
medical education, ineffective. A Charter of Public Health is needed in order
to ensure that successive governments do not jeopardise access to quality
public health in Pakistan.

Inability to Upscale Tests during the Lockdown

At the beginning of the outbreak, very few cases of COVID-19 were reported.
Pakistan struggled to carry out large testing of suspected patients. Many
countries have wrestled with the alternative of adopting general versus targeted
testing. However, it appears that adopting a massive testing strategy can prove
more effective in containing the rise of infections and in flattening the curve.
Previously, Pakistan was carrying out 68 tests per million of its population.20
However, as per the Government’s official web portal on COVID-19, Pakistan
upscaled its average testing from 5,892 tests between April 16 and 17, 2020 to
22,225 average tests conducted between June 25 and July 1, 2020.21

Disconnect between Federal and Provincial Governments

The COVID-19 crisis tested the post-18th Constitutional Amendment crisis
management ability of the state. There was palpable lack of coordination
between the provinces and the centre. In the beginning, absence of a
coherent strategy made it difficult to chart out coordinated activities to
contain the pandemic. This led to instances of uncoordinated initiatives by
the provinces and federal government. In early March, the Sindh
government initiated lockdown, quarantine and provision of medical

20
“Low Testing Rate Leaves Pakistan, India Blindfolded in Dealing with COVID-
19,” Express Tribune, April 3, 2020, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2190307/9-low-
testing-rate-leaves-pakistan-india-blindfolded-dealing-covid-19/.
21
“Covid-19,” Government of Pakistan, accessed June 12, 2020, http://covid.gov.pk/.

Journal of Current Affairs 39

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
services.22 On the capacity building front, the provinces were not provided
timely guidance and leverage to procure necessary critical care and personal
protective equipment for healthcare professionals. The availability of
updated data/statistics about health care facilities was also a weak area
where the federal government and provinces did not share essential
information with each other.

Digital Literacy and Divide

According to the 2019 annual report of Pakistan Telecommunication Authority
(PTA), Pakistan successfully increased its share of operational international
bandwidth from 220 Gbps in 2014 to 1.7 Tbps in 2018.23 Apart from this, the
country’s Internet subscription jumped to 76 million users of mobile
broadband, which makes it 35.90 per cent of the total population. Similarly,
the number of broadband subscribers increased to 36.86 per cent of population
(78 million users). Moreover, assembling and manufacturing of cell phones
and digital devices has also increased. Assembling operations were initiated in
2016 when 290,006 mobile devices were manufactured and assembled
annually.24 In 2019, more than 11.74 million mobile devices were assembled
and manufactured locally.25 This includes assembling of over 70,000, 4G-
enabled cell phones in 2019. This has also resulted in creation of approximately
3,200 jobs.26
However, the average cost of 1 GB of mobile data in Pakistan is USD
1.85, whereas, India offers it for USD 0.26.27 An additional challenge is access
and affordability of digital devices, particularly 3G and 4G-enabled devices.
After the COVID-19 pandemic when people were forced to stay home, the

22
Imran Ayub, “Sindh Response to Covid-19 Turns Tables on PPP Critics,” Dawn,
April 10, 2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1544066.
23
PTA, Annual Report 2019, report (Islamabad: Pakistan Telecommunication
Authority, 2019),
https://www.pta.gov.pk/assets/media/pta_ann_rep_2019_27032020.pdf.
24
Ibid.
25
Ibid.
26
Ibid.
27
“Worldwide Mobile Data Pricing League: The Cost of 1GB of Mobile Data in 230
Countries,” Cable, accessed June 19, 2020,
https://www.cable.co.uk/mobiles/worldwide-data-pricing/.

40 Vol. 4, Nos. 1 & 2

 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy
PTA reported 15 per cent increase in bandwidth consumption.28 By April,
nearly 85,000 Internet users used Zoom’s desktop version, while over 87,000
users logged into Netflix. Facebook’s usage increased by 6.4 per cent than pre-
lockdown days, while WhatsApp desktop usage grew by 23.5 per cent.29
Despite the surge in data consumption, Internet penetration in Pakistan is low.
More than 64 per cent of the population does not have access to broadband
internet or mobile broadband.
Unfortunately, digital literacy rates remain lopsided across the
country, as nearly half of country’s female population is illiterate (49.2 per
cent).30 The issue of literacy is closely linked to textual, technical and
conceptual literacy elements of Digital Literacy.31 The first two are linked with
how users interact with digital devices, and conceptual literacy relates with
purposeful use of the Internet. People with the weakest digital access have been
hit hard in the current pandemic. This is particularly true as students with no
Internet access and digital devices found themselves unable to continue their
educational activities. People living in rural areas and towns, particularly those
in middle age bracket, lack digital literacy and are more prone to economic
isolation. People also have little familiarity with use of digital platforms for e-
commerce and financial transactions. The lockdown severely hampered
people’s ability to continue transaction of goods and services as a result.
Relationship of this state of affairs remains closely linked with inability to have
access to digital devices and Internet. Access to financial services without
digital means has made life more difficult.

28
Ramsha Jahangir, “Social Media Outlets See Surge in Number of Pakistani Users,”
Dawn, April 14, 2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1548993.
29
Ibid.
30
Ministry of Finance, Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20 (Islamabad: Ministry of
Finance, Government of Pakistan, 2020),
http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_20/10_Education.pdf.
31
Usama Nizamani, “Internet Governance and Pakistan’s Digital Economy,” Journal
of Current Affairs 3, no. 2 (2019): 23-49 (40), http://ipripak.org/wp-
content/uploads/2019/08/Article-2_Usama-Nizamani_JoCA_3_2_ED-SSA-
UP.pdf. See also, Ravi Chhatpar and Robert Fabricant, “Internet Design for
Emerging Markets,” Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization 9, no. 3-
4 (2014): 113-121 (114), https://doi.org/10.1162/inov_a_00222.

Journal of Current Affairs 41

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
Exacerbation of Socioeconomic Conditions
The lower income stratum of society continues to face greater hardship due to
the lockdown. The government initiated disbursements of PKR 12,000 per
family to 12 million families under a total programme budget of PKR 144
billion.32 Out of this, almost 7 million families were new beneficiaries covered
under the COVID-19 Emergency Cash Programme.33 The Ministry of Poverty
Alleviation and Social Safety now plans to upscale this programme to PKR
203 billion in order to cover an additional 5 million families taking the tally of
beneficiary families to 17 million.34 However, if the downward trend of
COVID-19 cases is reversed due a second wave, the benefits of the package
may be insufficient to ameliorate the financial losses of impacted families. This
is also evident in cases where ‘smart lockdowns’ are being implemented in
certain clusters nationwide.
The Ministry of Finance has estimated that nearly 3 million jobs were
lost as of June 2020. As a result, the proportion of those living in poverty may
have increased from 24.3 per cent to 33.5 per cent.35 As per a media report by
Dawn, which cited the Economic Survey of 2019-20, with partial restrictions
in place nearly ‘1.4 million jobs will be lost,’ which constitutes ‘2.2 per cent
of the employed work force.’ In terms of wage losses, this will translate into
PKR 23.6 billion.36 If restrictions are moderate, unemployment may go up to
12.3 million, and consequent wage losses are likely to be approximately PKR
209.6 billion with unemployment of nearly 20 per cent of the work force.37
Under a complete lockdown, the unemployment figure may reach 18.53
million with wage losses amounting to an estimated PKR 315 billion, rendering
30 per cent of the labour force unemployed.38

32
Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division, Ehsaas Emergency Cash,
(Government of Pakistan, 2020).
33
Ibid.
34
“Ehsaas Programme Being Enhanced from Rs 144bn to Rs 203bn,” Dawn, July 17,
2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1569458.
35
Zubair Qureshi, “COVID-19:Pakistan Finance Ministry Reveals 3 Million Jobs
Have Been Lost,” Gulf News, June 5, 2020,
https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/covid-19pakistan-finance-ministry-
reveals-3-million-jobs-have-been-lost-1.71886956.
36
Bakhtawar Mian, “Covid-19 Restriction May Cause Loss of At Least 1.4 Million
Jobs,” Dawn, June 12, 2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1562985.
37
Ibid.
38
Ibid.

42 Vol. 4, Nos. 1 & 2

 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy
Corporations and services sector that were forced to keep their
business operations shut had to lay off their staff.39 Despite ordinances by
different provinces, it was hard for the government, in the absence of access to
financial assistance to labour, to ensure that staff was not laid off.

National Crisis Management Strategy

National emergency/crisis response institutions appeared dysfunctional at the
beginning of the crisis. The timely warning and desired preparation was found
wanting, chiefly due to effete and slow response by the National Disaster
Management Authority (NDMA) and Ministry of National Health Services,
Regulation and Coordination. There was no health risk assessment and
management entity/organisation within the Ministry. Due to lack of timely
sensitization, the sense of urgency in border control and capacity building of
hospitals was missing. The need for an updated national database for healthcare
infrastructure has emerged as a prime need. The NDMA, that was supposed to
act as the focal organisation for disaster response, had to be subsumed in a
hastily formed ‘National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC).’ A need
has emerged, therefore, of an organisation that can plan effectively for all
disasters in peacetime and be able to respond to emergencies in crisis
situations.

Shortcomings in Response
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the government was slow to
mitigate it,40 unlike the other countries like South Korea. Following are some
of the shortcomings that came to the fore in Pakistan’s response to the COVID-
19 pandemic:
 The Ministry of National Health Services, Regulation and
Coordination (MoNHSRC) failed to appreciate the nature and
magnitude of the threat unfolding in Wuhan, China. As experts,

39
Aamir Latif, “Millions of Pakistani Laborers Struggle Amid COVID-19
Lockdown,” Anadolu Agency, April 30, 2020, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-
pacific/millions-of-pakistani-laborers-struggle-amid-covid-19-lockdown/1824231.
40
Tariq Butt, “Belated Response to COVID-19 Costing Pakistan, Several Countries
Heavily,” News International, March 28, 2020,
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/635735-belated-response-to-covid-19-costing-
pakistan-several-countries-heavily.

Journal of Current Affairs 43

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
Ministry officials should have warned the government at the federal
and provincial levels well in time to take protective and preventive
measures. Apparently, there was no emergency/crisis response cell in
the Ministry that could have acted as a fulcrum for epidemic control
measures. A risk management strategy was conspicuous by its
absence.
 Due to a vacuum on disaster response at the federal level, there was
less than desired coordination between the NDMA and MoNHSRC.
As a result, the warnings for border control and stockpiling of essential
medical equipment for doctors and Intensive Care Units (ICUs) of
hospitals could not be sent in time. The acute shortage of Personal
Protective Equipment (PPE) and ventilators in hospitals emerged as
the Achilles’ heel of Pakistan’s healthcare system.
 As the threat of COVID-19 unfolded in China, no updated record of
essential equipment and capacity of hospitals was shared in time with
the relevant institutions to firm up response options.
 Had the NDMA and MoNHSRC been more proactive, the government
could have ensured better and timely border control and quarantine at
the Taftan border.
 Effective border control and management of pilgrims (excluding those
from Iran) could have prevented the spread.
 The government’s response towards religious congregations allowed
the Tablighi Jammat at Lahore to hold congregation in March despite
clear indications of health risk posed by a contagious virus. By the time
the government acted, the damage had already been done. Similarly,
guidelines for Friday prayers were given too late.
 Lack of an organised volunteer force also came to the fore when the
government decided to raise a ‘Tiger Force’ of volunteers to disburse
food aid to impoverished segments of population. Such a force should
ideally have been arranged out of peacetime trained volunteers on
Boy/Girl Scout lines.

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 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy

Opportunities
Following are some of the opportunities that Pakistan needs to capitalise on:

Regional Health Security

The COVID-19 pandemic has opened up the possibility of regional health
security cooperation in South Asia. Political differences need to be put aside to
forge a common and a synergetic regional response to future health
emergencies. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) needs to be reinvigorated to combat health and climate change-
induced crises.

Handling Clerics and Religious Affairs

The government needs to educate and impose rules-based discipline upon
the conduct of clerics and their proselytizing efforts. Regulation of the
organisation of Tablighis and imposition of curbs on congregations should
be enforced strictly after obtaining edicts from Saudi Arabia, Al-Azhar
University (Egypt), nationally renowned religious scholars and institutes
such as Islamic Ideological Council or through consultations organised by
the Ministry of Religious Affairs or parliamentary committees. The crisis
is an opportunity to make rigid religious attitudes more malleable and
rational.

Creation of Database of Wage Earners

An evident lapse that needs to be corrected is the government’s inability to
update the record of daily wage earners. As per local television media, many
wage earners in rural areas of Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa have not had access to rations or financial support from the
respective provincial or federal governments. The state should update its
record on wage earners by having a centralised digital database prepared
through joint efforts of the National Database and Registration Authority
(NADRA), Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and recently formed Ministry of
Poverty Alleviation.

Journal of Current Affairs 45

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
Indigenisation of Health Equipment
Critical importance should be given to indigenous manufacturing of
ventilators, radiology equipment, and PPEs. Special concessions for
manufacturing units in the under construction Special Economic Zones under
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) need to be provided.

Focus on Public Health

The current public health focus on sanitation needs to be used to strengthen
the national health infrastructure. There is a need to invest more on public
health, hygiene and medical facilities. The management structure at public
health institutions needs to become efficient and corporate- oriented in its
execution. Investment in adequate infrastructure building needs to take
place to cater for additional in-patient and surgical departments, including
placement of specialists at public hospitals at district and tehsil levels.
Quality assurance at public health units must be robust and stringent with
zero tolerance for violations. Developing a comprehensive public health
policy with focus on building up of industrial capacity can create dividends
for private investors to pour in resources and build indigenous industrial
capacity to cater for the local market and increase share of medical exports.

Prospects for Biotechnology and Biomedical Investment

There is scope for attracting investment in biotechnology and biomedicine in
Pakistan. This may lead to a gradual transition towards an innovation culture
in the country. Medicine, bioengineering and biosciences have the potential
to flourish given Pakistan’s strong human resources. For doing so, the
Foreign Office (FO), Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), Special
Plans Division (SPD), National University of Sciences and Technology
(NUST), NDMA, National Institute of Health (NIH), amongst others, need
to be consulted for devising a robust policy on an institutional setup to
encourage research and development culture in Pakistan. Vaccine research
for infectious diseases should be conducted under properly equipped
laboratories that meet biosafety levels 3 and 4 as per international standards.

Recommendations

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 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy
UN Resolution on Universal Access to COVID-19 Vaccine
The FO and its mission at the United Nations (UN) should push for global
cooperation for building capacity of all nations to combat health emergencies.
Diplomatic efforts at international level should put pressure on rich nations to
honour their financial commitments to the WHO. The multilateral fora should
try to make the COVID-19 vaccine accessible to developing countries.

Economic Package
The government, instead of focusing too much on stabilisation, needs to prop
up growth. There is a need to concentrate on protecting existing businesses and
household incomes from bankruptcy. In order to cover up an expected loss of
5 per cent of GDP due to contraction of the economy, the minimum size of the
government’s package should at least be 2.5-3 per cent of GDP. The
government should reduce vulnerable households’ monthly expenditures by
reducing General Sales Tax (GST), reducing monthly utility payments and
passing maximum benefit of petroleum prices to the people. The State Bank of
Pakistan (SBP) needs to provide a credit backstop/guarantee to lend on easy
terms to Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs).

COVID-19 and SAARC

SAARC should be reactivated as a central forum to forge common regional
response to health and climate change risks. A regional risk management
strategy must be formulated under SAARC’s aegis. This may help South
Asia in attaining its rightful share of aid from international institutions such
as WHO and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC).

Relaxation of Interest Rate

To spur economic growth and to offset the economic consequences of global
recession, the interest rate should be further reduced. This will lead to re-
energising economic activity to compensate losses incurred during the
lockdown. The interest rate has been cut down to 7 per cent by SBP.41

41
Ariba Shahid and Meiryum Ali, “Covid Cut: SBP Slashes Interest Rate to 7pc,”
Pakistan Today, June 25, 2020,
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/06/25/covid-cut-sbp-slashes-interest-rate-

Journal of Current Affairs 47

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
However, rates may need to be further slashed as means of providing additional
stimulus to the economy.

Industrial Automation
Assembly lines in factories may see a massive shift in favor of auto-bots
bringing down human intervention to a minimum as co-bots in the overall
supply chain. The government should encourage the private sector to adopt
automation of its assembly lines and design programmes to focus on
education/training of the youth for Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies.

Tax Holiday to New Businesses and Entrepreneurs

Pakistan should give a tax holiday to SMEs that offer employment to 5-15
people for six months/one year. This will allow the government to create
additional incentives and encourage new entrepreneurs.

Inviting Start-Up Initiatives in Biotech and Biomedicine Firms

Pakistan will need to enhance its allocation for Science and Technology that
stood at 0.00025 on Research and Development (R&D) in 2018.42 Although it
has now been enhanced 600 per cent under the present government, it still
stands at 0.15 per cent of the GDP. The government needs to allocate more
resources to R&D facilities. In 2018, Israel spent about 4.8 per cent of its GDP
on civilian R&D.43 Pakistan needs to scale up R&D share to at least 2.5 per
cent of its GDP in the next fiscal year.

Establishment of National, Provincial and District Health Organisations

to7pc/#:~:text=KARACHI%3A%20The%20State%20Bank%20of,points%20from
%208pc%20to%207pc.
42
Amin Yusufzai, “Pakistan Spends 0.00025 per cent of its GDP on Science and
Technology: Senate Committee,” ProPakistani, June 13, 2018,
https://propakistani.pk/2018/06/13/pakistan-spends-0-00025-of-its-gdp-on-science-
technology-senate-committee/.
43
“Israel’s Expenditure on Civilian R&D Rises 4.6 pct in 2018: Report,” Xinhua Net,
August 29, 2019, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-
08/29/c_138348662.htm.

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 Post-COVID-19 World and Pakistan’s Response Strategy
Overall national health spending should be increased from the current 0.8 per
cent of GDP to WHO’s recommended 6 per cent of GDP in phases. A National
Health Organisation (NHO) on the lines of WHO focusing on public health,
infectious diseases and pandemics may be created under which the provincial
chapters called Provincial Health Organisations (PHOs) are set up with the
lowest tiers deployed at districts level called District Health Organizations
(DHOs). The organisations should plan, monitor and implement public health
strategies.

Establishment of Prevention and Disease Control Centre (PDCC)

Pakistan should establish an autonomous Prevention and Disease Control
Centre (PDCC) dedicated to study of epidemiology, infectious diseases and
disease control/prevention. The Centre must be responsible for undertaking
and funding research, development, innovation and conception of policy for
health departments across the country. This may be achieved by decoupling
the area from NIH and placing it under the PDCC. The Centre should work
under the MoNHSRC as an autonomous institution, and engage with
multilateral institutions, keeping abreast of global research on disease
prevention and control.

Use of Modern Technology in Health Services

Modern technology like 5G Spectrum should be integrated with telemedicine
to enhance responsiveness and outreach of healthcare. This can be achieved by
earliest introduction and operationalisation of 5G technologies since it creates
low latency in operating and handling of equipment. Through such
technologies, doctors and radiologists could operate complex machinery
remotely bridging the healthcare divide between urban and rural centres.

Conclusion
While a certain degree of de-globalisation through stronger border controls and
focus on individual economies would be the new normal, the fundamentals of
global economic interdependence and geopolitical competition are likely to
remain the same as before. The common threat of COVID-19 to all nations,
regardless of economic and political strength, might act as a catalyst to find
common cures for future pandemics. Regional cooperation and joint strategies

Journal of Current Affairs 49

 Raashid Wali Janjua, Khalid Chandio,
Umar Farooq Khan & Usama Nizamani
for countering similar pandemics might be the unintended consequences of the
present scourge stalking mankind. Countries like Pakistan need to imbibe the
right lessons and recalibrate development spending to focus more on human
security. The outbreak of COVID-19 and the strict public measures taken by
governments, including that of the US and UK, show that a stronger case has
been made for government intervention in societal welfare in areas such as
healthcare.
The current crisis has also shown that there is a clear linkage between
the quality of health systems and the economy. The top three countries on the
Global Economic Sustainability Index (last calculated in 2014) were
Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea and all three countries shared one
common feature - they had the best performing healthcare systems. This
explains the reason why they managed the current crisis so effectively. This is
something that Pakistani policymakers need to be cognizant of.
The issues of urban versus rural living styles are also of importance. It
is worth highlighting that COVID-19 has spread more easily in tightly packed
metropolitan cities like New York and London. More than 40 per cent of
Pakistan’s population lives in urban cities with more people moving to urban
cities in search of better opportunities. This rural/urban migration demands
serious attention of urban policy planners at the national and provincial level.
Pakistan spends under 0.8 per cent of its GDP on healthcare which
leaves the country under-equipped and ill-prepared for any health crisis. The
government needs to improve health security of the people and make it a
priority in its policymaking to cope with future challenges and emergencies.
New and innovative strategies should be devised and implemented to offset
Pakistan’s resource-constrained environment. In this regard, the Local
Government (LG) set-up must be strengthened by holding free and fair local
elections in keeping with the provisions of the Constitution of Pakistan.
Given the global fallout of COVID-19, Pakistan should brace itself for
an economic downturn. In order to alleviate its negative impact, the
government should continue to rally international support for debt relief for
developing countries. 

50 Vol. 4, Nos. 1 & 2