Promotion (in 1000's)

Cerelae Sales(in Consumer Trade

Month 1000's units) Promotion Promotion
Jan-14 10201 360 686 Sales(in 1000's)
Feb-14 7567 73 383
Mar-14 8815 647 389 Mean 9175.9583333
Apr-14 10306 574 402 Standard Error 419.69365829
May-14 8347 652 237 Median 8925.5
Jun-14 10453 911 643 Mode #N/A
Jul-14 7186 43 582 Standard Deviation 2907.7229591
Aug-14 7116 197 337 Sample Variance 8454852.8067
Sep-14 10240 45 1562 Kurtosis 0.9875030876
Oct-14 7914 0 1459 Skewness 0.8912793227
Nov-14 6762 0 451 Range 13875
Dec-14 3994 0 115 Minimum 3994
Jan-15 15106 2634 0 Maximum 17869
Feb-15 6323 254 472 Sum 440446
Mar-15 9344 0 1055 Count 48
Apr-15 9036 133 300
May-15 10667 106 778
Jun-15 9287 0 685
Jul-15 9943 0 1064
Aug-15 6083 0 68
Cerelae Sales (in 10
Sep-15 11626 1806 39 Cerelae Sales Volume (in 000's units) 19900
Oct-15 7346 589 166 17900
Nov-15 7569 73 401 15900
Dec-15 4387 28 532
13900
Jan-16 15737 2615 996
Feb-16 6492 211 804 11900
Mar-16 8762 27 825 9900
f(x) = 1.02328789762581 x − 34164.8
Apr-16 7515 48 226 7900 R² = 0.022504083425451
May-16 12678 0 870
5900
Jun-16 9117 67 652
Jul-16 11330 484 540 3900
Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15
Aug-16 6108 385 147
Month
Sep-16 13233 1613 47
Oct-16 8061 441 222
Nov-16 7690 48 441
Dec-16 6645 516 244
Jan-17 10922 1438 52
Feb-17 5942 101 35
Mar-17 14934 0 6754
Apr-17 10303 63 752
May-17 10876 1601 0
Jun-17 7682 854 0
Jul-17 10843 1514 68
Aug-17 5986 385 137
Sep-17 17869 29 7305
Oct-17 10108 174 565
Nov-17 9539 1125 566
Dec-17 6456 344 829
 Sales and Consumer Promotion o
30000

Cerelae Sales Volume in (000's units)

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
14 -1
4 14 1 5
-1
5 15 16 -1
6 16
a n- ay p- n- ay p- n- ay p-
J M S e Ja M S e J a
M S e

Month

Cerelae Sales(in 1000's units) Consum

relae Sales (in 1000's units) Sales and Trade Promotion ove
30000
Cerelae Sales Volume (in 000's units)

25000

20000

15000

2328789762581 x − 34164.8462896632 10000

2504083425451
5000

4 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 0

Jan-14May-14Sep-14 Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-1
Month
Month

Cerelae Sales(in 1000's units) Trad

Consumer Promotion over Time
0

Consumer Promotion (in $000's)

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000
5 15 6 6 16 7 7 17
-1 p- -1 -1 p- -1 -1 p-
ay S e J an ay S e J an ay S e
M M M
Month

ales(in 1000's units) Consumer Promotion

nd Trade Promotion over Time

0

2000
Trade Promotion in ($000's)

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000
5May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17

Month

e Sales(in 1000's units) Trade Promotion

 Cerelae Sales(in Month Consumer Trade
Month 1000's units) Trend Promotion Con(lag) Promotion Trade(lag)
Jan-14 10201 1 360 0 686 0
Feb-14 7567 2 73 360 383 686
Mar-14 8815 3 647 73 389 383
Apr-14 10306 4 574 647 402 389
May-14 8347 5 652 574 237 402
Jun-14 10453 6 911 652 643 237
Jul-14 7186 7 43 911 582 643
Aug-14 7116 8 197 43 337 582
Sep-14 10240 9 45 197 1562 337
Oct-14 7914 10 0 45 1459 1562
Nov-14 6762 11 0 0 451 1459
Dec-14 3994 12 0 0 115 451
Jan-15 15106 13 2634 0 0 115
Feb-15 6323 14 254 2634 472 0
Mar-15 9344 15 0 254 1055 472
Apr-15 9036 16 133 0 300 1055
May-15 10667 17 106 133 778 300
Jun-15 9287 18 0 106 685 778
Jul-15 9943 19 0 0 1064 685
Aug-15 6083 20 0 0 68 1064
Sep-15 11626 21 1806 0 39 68
Oct-15 7346 22 589 1806 166 39
Nov-15 7569 23 73 589 401 166
Dec-15 4387 24 28 73 532 401
Jan-16 15737 25 2615 28 996 532
Feb-16 6492 26 211 2615 804 996
Mar-16 8762 27 27 211 825 804
Apr-16 7515 28 48 27 226 825
May-16 12678 29 0 48 870 226
Jun-16 9117 30 67 0 652 870
Jul-16 11330 31 484 67 540 652
Aug-16 6108 32 385 484 147 540
Sep-16 13233 33 1613 385 47 147
Oct-16 8061 34 441 1613 222 47
Nov-16 7690 35 48 441 441 222
Dec-16 6645 36 516 48 244 441
Jan-17 10922 37 1438 516 52 244
Feb-17 5942 38 101 1438 35 52
Mar-17 14934 39 0 101 6754 35
Apr-17 10303 40 63 0 752 6754
May-17 10876 41 1601 63 0 752
Jun-17 7682 42 854 1601 0 0
Jul-17 10843 43 1514 854 68 0
Aug-17 5986 44 385 1514 137 68
Sep-17 17869 45 29 385 7305 137
Oct-17 10108 46 174 29 565 7305
Nov-17 9539 47 1125 174 566 565
Dec-17 6456 48 344 1125 829 566
344 829
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.874984159058287
R Square 0.765597278602938
Adjusted R Square 0.737692192722335
Standard Error 1489.21922516154
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 5 304231578.0919 60846315.618 27.435761419
Residual 42 93146503.82481 2217773.9006
Total 47 397378081.9167

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 7170.46990533372 486.6212485265 14.735217435 3.378487E-18
Month Trend -13.5058671686716 17.38385121776 -0.7769203153 0.4415597289
Consumer 2.94699374676315 0.35620146486 8.2733903071 2.331303E-10
Con(lag) -0.822086792615063 0.349997173486 -2.3488383761 0.0236123129
Trade 1.47627652773732 0.173410956846 8.5131675333 1.088506E-10
Trade(lag) 0.273163554544778 0.176443424734 1.5481651127 0.1290855528

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales(in 1000's) Residuals

1 9230.60748502758 970.3925149724
2 7815.44157770977 -248.44157771
3 9655.53813280303 -840.538132803
4 8975.85447934746 1330.145520653
5 9012.19195941964 -665.19195942
6 10252.1309866001 200.8690133999
7 7488.56560290692 -302.565602907
8 8264.11738260678 -1148.11738261
9 9417.58077548213 822.4192245179
10 9578.98625414701 -1664.98625415
11 8086.25170656869 -1324.25170657
12 7301.36806309915 -3307.3680631
13 14788.6889698878 317.3110301122
14 6261.35008599409 61.64991400591
15 8445.47678698742 898.5232130126
16 8077.39670732041 958.6032926796
17 8374.40616214846 2292.593837852
18 8063.99376321633 1223.006236784
19 8671.73368950464 1271.266310495
20 7291.38538788207 -1208.38538788
21 12285.2673077367 -659.267307737
22 7380.14667923528 -34.1466792353
23 7228.08842079481 340.9115792052
24 7763.75028046278 -3376.75028046
25 16131.8878763535 -394.887876354
26 6750.37330545429 -258.373305454
27 8149.4716429377 612.5283570623
28 7470.56340882302 44.43659117698
29 8085.43513385531 4592.564866145
30 8162.92705984539 954.0729401546
31 9098.3451439744 2231.654856026
32 7839.50570984592 -1731.50570985
33 11271.3138264615 1961.686173539
34 7025.44074365463 1035.559256345
35 7188.3602365727 501.6397634273
36 8646.12389486796 -2001.12389487
37 10627.7513297002 294.2486702998
38 5838.60669687395 103.393303126
39 16541.0427124483 -1607.04271245
40 9771.00242088683 531.9975791132
41 11488.4938650689 -612.493865069
42 7803.79518900853 -121.795189009
43 10449.7908326731 393.2091673269
44 6686.98994440584 -700.989944406
45 17153.2887283366 715.7112716634
46 9867.69241464696 240.307585353
47 10697.9289346168 -1158.92893462
48 7989.55030179864 -1533.5503018
 Cerelae Sales Actual V
19900

Cerelae Sales Volume (in 000's units)

17900

15900

13900

11900

9900

7900
Significance F
5900
3.1734955E-12
3900
Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-
Month

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

6188.42846748 8152.5113432 6188.4284675 8152.5113432
-48.587899236 21.576164898 -48.587899236 21.576164898
2.22815008801 3.6658374055 2.228150088 3.6658374055
-1.5284096845 -0.1157639008 -1.5284096845 -0.1157639008
1.12631904866 1.8262340068 1.1263190487 1.8262340068
-0.0829136925 0.6292408016 -0.0829136925 0.6292408016
relae Sales Actual Vs Forecast

Cerelae Sales Actual

Cerelae Sales Forecasted

14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17

Month
 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sales(in 1000's Month
Month units) Trend Jan Feb March April May June July August
Jan-14 10201 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-14 7567 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-14 8815 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Apr-14 10306 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
May-14 8347 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Jun-14 10453 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jul-14 7186 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Aug-14 7116 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Sep-14 10240 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-14 7914 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-14 6762 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-14 3994 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-15 15106 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-15 6323 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-15 9344 15 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Apr-15 9036 16 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
May-15 10667 17 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Jun-15 9287 18 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jul-15 9943 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Aug-15 6083 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Sep-15 11626 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-15 7346 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-15 7569 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-15 4387 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-16 15737 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-16 6492 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-16 8762 27 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Apr-16 7515 28 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
May-16 12678 29 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Jun-16 9117 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jul-16 11330 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Aug-16 6108 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Sep-16 13233 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-16 8061 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-16 7690 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-16 6645 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-17 10922 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-17 5942 38 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-17 14934 39 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Apr-17 10303 40 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
May-17 10876 41 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Jun-17 7682 42 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jul-17 10843 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Aug-17 5986 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Sep-17 17869 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-17 10108 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-17 9539 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-17 6456 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 9 10 11

September October November Consumer Con(lag) Trade Trade(lag)

0 0 0 360 0 686 0
0 0 0 73 360 383 686
0 0 0 647 73 389 383
0 0 0 574 647 402 389
0 0 0 652 574 237 402
0 0 0 911 652 643 237
0 0 0 43 911 582 643
0 0 0 197 43 337 582
1 0 0 45 197 1562 337
0 1 0 0 45 1459 1562
0 0 1 0 0 451 1459
0 0 0 0 0 115 451
0 0 0 2634 0 0 115
0 0 0 254 2634 472 0
0 0 0 0 254 1055 472
0 0 0 133 0 300 1055
0 0 0 106 133 778 300
0 0 0 0 106 685 778
0 0 0 0 0 1064 685
0 0 0 0 0 68 1064
1 0 0 1806 0 39 68
0 1 0 589 1806 166 39
0 0 1 73 589 401 166
0 0 0 28 73 532 401
0 0 0 2615 28 996 532
0 0 0 211 2615 804 996
0 0 0 27 211 825 804
0 0 0 48 27 226 825
0 0 0 0 48 870 226
0 0 0 67 0 652 870
0 0 0 484 67 540 652
0 0 0 385 484 147 540
1 0 0 1613 385 47 147
0 1 0 441 1613 222 47
0 0 1 48 441 441 222
0 0 0 516 48 244 441
0 0 0 1438 516 52 244
0 0 0 101 1438 35 52
0 0 0 0 101 6754 35
0 0 0 63 0 752 6754
0 0 0 1601 63 0 752
0 0 0 854 1601 0 0
0 0 0 1514 854 68 0
0 0 0 385 1514 137 68
1 0 0 29 385 7305 137
0 1 0 174 29 565 7305
0 0 1 1125 174 566 565
0 0 0 344 1125 829 566
344 829
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.960401240431198
R Square 0.922370542621785
Adjusted R Square 0.882303725910448
Standard Error 997.549333781847
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 16 366529837.0435 22908114.815 23.020809196
Residual 31 30848244.87319 995104.67333
Total 47 397378081.9167

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 4182.18120297905 595.5211502543 7.0227248876 6.953096E-08
Month Trend 16.7784438482239 13.3502276019 1.2567908465 0.218217053
Jan 4891.02464526147 921.001489941 5.3105501985 8.814637E-06
Feb 2696.71603587344 893.5271774835 3.0180570931 0.0050518677
March 3150.3543401875 771.4328716572 4.0837698988 0.0002892642
April 3781.35259043657 764.9235793449 4.9434383938 2.525606E-05
May 4591.96104811335 728.5867702714 6.3025589202 5.202951E-07
June 3591.66936954488 728.8938835935 4.9275614056 2.643095E-05
July 3982.03547247342 724.9850199088 5.4925762093 5.230298E-06
August 1429.17294269529 712.9950463297 2.0044640563 0.0538224448
September 4664.82767509591 825.0606688786 5.6539207976 3.294983E-06
October 2947.87635403639 814.8550599156 3.6176695698 0.0010437009
November 2310.63408991857 707.1169606904 3.2676830261 0.0026525719
Consumer 1.81373615961386 0.343352107607 5.2824378224 9.554901E-06
Con(lag) -0.823793497920244 0.338049054695 -2.4369051961 0.0207502118
Trade 1.13404255347932 0.144223625113 7.8630845161 7.10722E-09
Trade(lag) 0.110359183961283 0.145165791537 0.7602285827 0.4528614751

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales(in 1000's) Residuals

1 10520.8825012365 -319.882501237
2 7258.33590512948 308.6640948705
3 8979.63136539384 -164.631365394
 4 9037.5525603321 1268.447439668
5 9880.86545572257 -1533.86545572
6 9745.06600486352 707.9339951365
7 8340.15428206016 -1154.15428206
8 6513.86598508149 602.1340149185
9 10725.911194331 -485.911194331
10 9087.72041896512 -1173.72041897
11 7349.84541624677 -587.845416247
12 4563.7094147744 -569.709414774
13 14081.3979688459 1024.602031154
14 5939.88044898986 383.1195510101
15 8623.47308116857 720.5269188314
16 8929.8575093388 106.1424906612
17 10057.4601560032 609.5398439968
18 8851.21904526762 435.7809547324
19 9765.2244264842 177.7755735158
20 6141.46008801021 -58.4600880102
21 12526.6957872454 -900.695787245
22 7272.25793449703 73.74206550297
23 6998.97855926634 570.0214407337
24 5223.0762136769 -836.076213677
25 15400.7382530274 336.2617469726
26 6565.30307174621 -73.3030717462
27 8685.01786584231 76.98213415769
28 8845.48707623789 -1330.48707624
29 10232.733231893 2445.266768107
30 9234.1324455796 -117.13244558
31 10191.3397384615 1138.660261539
32 6674.13493197599 -566.134931976
33 12078.6162538801 1154.38374612
34 7428.547710618 632.452289382
35 7328.43973558788 361.5602644121
36 6007.92573515157 637.0742648484
37 11962.9812768902 -1040.98127689
38 6560.48057413445 -618.480574134
39 15566.8776875953 -632.877687595
40 10347.1028540912 -44.1028540912
41 12396.9411563813 -1520.94115638
42 8708.58250428926 -1026.58250429
43 11005.2815529942 -162.281552994
44 5963.53899493231 22.46100506769
45 17636.7767645436 232.2232354564
46 9640.47393591985 467.5260640801
47 9882.73628889903 -343.736288899
48 5687.28863639713 768.7113636029
 Cerelae Sa
19900

17900

Cereale Sales Volume (in 000's units)

15900

13900

11900

Significance F 9900
7.5352946E-13
7900

5900

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 3900

2967.60780942 5396.7545965 2967.6078094 5396.7545965 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15
-10.449524858 44.006412555 -10.449524858 44.006412555 Mont
3012.62972238 6769.4195681 3012.6297224 6769.4195681
874.355342675 4519.0767291 874.35534268 4519.0767291
1577.00662545 4723.7020549 1577.0066255 4723.7020549
2221.2806649 5341.424516 2221.2806649 5341.424516
3105.99853328 6077.9235629 3105.9985333 6077.9235629
2105.08049296 5078.2582461 2105.080493 5078.2582461
2503.41877593 5460.652169 2503.4187759 5460.652169
-24.990041508 2883.3359269 -24.990041508 2883.3359269
2982.10534683 6347.5500034 2982.1053468 6347.5500034
1285.96850247 4609.7842056 1285.9685025 4609.7842056
868.459540416 3752.8086394 868.45954042 3752.8086394
1.1134649193 2.5140073999 1.1134649193 2.5140073999
-1.5132490905 -0.1343379053 -1.5132490905 -0.1343379053
0.83989653077 1.4281885762 0.8398965308 1.4281885762
-0.1857083998 0.4064267678 -0.1857083998 0.4064267678
 Cerelae Sales Actual Vs Forecast

Cerelae Sales Actual

Cerelae Sales Forecast

n-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17
Month