Presentation of Journal Paper

on
“Flood Frequency Analysis of River Subernarekha, India ,Using
Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution”

WATER RESOURCE ENGINEERING

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY , PATNA
Presented By:
Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 What is FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS ?

Flood: Situation having excessive Stage of a river

generally above Full River Level(FRL).

Frequency: Number of time that a given magnitude of event

may occur in a given Return Period.

Analysis: Procedure adopt for evaluation.

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 REASONS

 Estimation of Flow i.e. Possible Flood Magnitude.

 Safe design of Hydraulic Structures i.e. Dams, Culverts etc.

 More Reliable and Logical approach.

 Knowledge Flood insurance and Flood zoning.

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 Statistical Analysis

Annual Maximum Series Partial Duration Time Series

Series
One Discharge i.e. Peak per Year More than one Discharge/Year

N>20, AMS is adopted Used for Independent Event

N<5,PDS is adopted

Flow represented by Series of ordinates

at equally interval of Times.

Day unit is taken rather than month or

year.

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 Annual Maximum Series
Calculation of Frequency:

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
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AMS Continues…

Calculation of Flood Magnitude: xT  x  K X

XT = Desired Flood after T years.

X = Mean Flood in Flood Series
K = Frequency Factor
 X = Standard Deviation

Approaches:
1. Gumbel’s Method & Confidence Limits
2. Log Pearson Type III
3. Log Normal Method
4. Gamma Distribution
5. Extreme Value Distribution……..

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 Objectives
 To develop a Mathematical Model between Peak Flood
Discharge & Return Period from a given 6-hr UH.

 To estimate of Qp (Peak Flood Discharge) at any

desired value of T (Return Period).

Introduction
Peak Flood Magnitude is prerequisite for Planning ,Operation and Post
Commissioning of Hydraulic Structures.
Gumbel’s Distribution is adopted only because of Peak Flow Data are
Homogeneous & Independent hence lack long term trends, the river is less
regulated ,flow data cover a long record and is of good quality.
Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 Satellite Imageries of the Basin

Fig 2A: Subarnarekha Basin Fig 2B: FCC image

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
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Fig2C:
Subarnarekha
Drainage
Basin & Study
Site

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 Basin Information
Table A: SL Features Description
Basin No.
Information 1. Basin Extent 85° 8' to 87° 32' E
21° 15' to 23° 34' N

2. Area (Sq.km) 29,196 (as reported by CWC)

25,792.17 (Geographically calculated)
3. Mean Annual Rainfall 1458.61 (0.5° grid for 1971-2005)
(mm) 1383.35 (1° grid for 1969-2004)
4. Mean Maximum 31.46
Temperature (°C)
5. Mean Minimum 20.50
Temperature (°C)
6. Highest Elevation (m) 1166
7. Number of Sub Basins 1
Number of Watershed 45
Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
Data Collection: 6-h unit hydrograph for Kharkai Barrage Site was used. No
other datas (Qp ,Stream Order, Stream Density…) are presently
available.

Data Source: Irrigation International Building , Salt Lake, Kolkata, Govt. of

West Bengal.

Data Processing: D-hr UH nD hr UH

A computer Program has been derived for this purpose.

The Computer Output, UH for each duration is developed.

From UH, Qp and D has been indentified.

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 Gumbel’s Distribution in Kharkai Catchment
xT  x  k   X
XT = Desired Flood
y  yn
k t X = Mean Flood
sn K = Frequency Factor
T σ = Standard Deviation
yt  (ln(ln( )) Yt = Reduced Variate
T 1 Yn = Reduced Mean
Sn = Reduced SD

Data Input: Sample Size = 100

Mean of Series = 104.93 cumec
Standard Deviation = 140.0465 cumec
Return Period = 100 Yr
Interval Taken = 2.5yr

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
Data input Continues…

Fig: 4, Table- 1
Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
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 Table 1 Continues…

Sanjan Banerjee
Fig: 4A, Table- 1 M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 Comparison Between Field Value and Computed Value

Table 1A: Comparison chart

Return Period Computed Value Name Field Value
(Yr.) (Cumec) (Cumec)
1.Minimum 64.92
2.5 117.53
Discharge

2. 66.59
10 300.99

20 383.62 3. 68.34

50 491.45 98. 574.67

75 539.07 99. 657.5

100 572.68 100.Maximum 862.00

Discharge
Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 Confidence Limits
Table- 2 : Upper & Lower Bound Values

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
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Confidence Limit Continues…

Fig:5 – Variation of LBV & UBV

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
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 Comparison of Qp by Extreme Value Distribution & Empirical
Model (Published in IJCR, Vol-4, Issue, 04, pp-164, April, 2012 ) Developed by
Author
Table 3

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
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Table 3 Continues…

Goodness of FIT

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
Discussion: 1. Value of the Variate XT is unbounded. Variation of X1, XT

and X2 with T are truly convergent in nature.

2. Empirical model has been compared with the model

developed here by Gumbel’s method (Table 3).

3. Qp for a given Return Period (T) computed by two models

mentioned above do not vary too much

4. For a given Return Period (T) , Qp can be computed by any

of the two models, particularly at higher values of Return

Period (T).

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
Conclusion: 1. The entire water resource of river Subernarekha is largely
untapped. Hence, construction of hydraulic structures will be
helpful for resource generation also.

2. For any anticipated T, XT can readily be estimated from the

developed model as shown in the Figure-3 and corresponding
equation has also been furnished there.

3. The Stage (G), corresponding to XT can be estimated.These

Stages may be obtained from Stage-Discharge (G-Q) model.

4. If presently adopted Danger level for ‘Flood’ for the river

Subernarekha at the gauging site, is lower than the stage
computed from (G-Q) model, then there is no problem and
vice versa. Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004
 References

Journals:
1. Mukherjee, M.K.2013, ’Flood Frequency Analysis of River Subernarekha,
India, Using Gumbel’s extreme Value Distribution’, IJCER,Vol-3,Issue-7,pp-12-
18.

Online Sources:

1. http://www.india-wris.nrsc.gov.in/subarnarekhabasinreport.html

Sanjan Banerjee
M.Tech (WRE)
Roll-1625004