Digital Learning Compass: Distance Education Enrollment 2017
Digital Learning Compass: Distance Education Enrollment 2017
May 2017
Distance Enrollments
Understanding the Key Players – Change in the Top 50 Institutions 2012-15 .................. 29
Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 31
Tables ............................................................................................................................................................ 32
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1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Digital Learning Compass: Distance Education Enrollment Report 2017 is the first in a
series of publications from the new research partnership of the Babson Survey
Research Group, e-Literate, and WCET. This study takes a detailed look at the
trends and patterns of distance education enrollments among U.S. degree-granting
higher education institutions. Additional publications in the Digital Learning
Compass series will provide detailed examinations of multiple facets of U.S.
distance education.
The Digital Learning Compass partnership builds on the combined efforts of the
three partner organizations. The Babson Survey Research Group began its studies
in 2004 with support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. The Foundation
continued that commitment for eight years, supporting an independent study,
offering full privacy for all respondents, and providing free distribution of all report
publications. Most recently, we have partnered with both WCET and e-Literate, as
each of these organizations contributed to the report series.
The current approach expands on our prior partnership. The three organizations
now use a pooled approach to all data and analysis – we all use the same definitions
and criteria, and we all see each other’s work. Each Digital Learning Compass
publication has a single lead organization, with the others available to comment,
offer suggestions, and add their voice.
Digital Learning Compass wants to thank our current partners, the Online Learning
Consortium, Pearson, and Tyton Partners for contributing to our research and
their strong support for our efforts in making this transition.
This report was edited and reviewed by Nate Ralph and we thank him for his
suggestions, corrections, and careful attention to detail.
Finally, we need to thank those in the higher education community who have
continued to provide us with ideas and requests. These reports are the better
because of your input, and we hope you find them useful.
2
FOREWORD
This report marks the first in the new series of reports from Digital Learning
Compass on the state of distance education among U.S. institutions from Digital
Learning Compass. Digital Learning Compass is a research partnership composed
of the Babson Survey Research Group, e-Literate, and WCET.
Over the course of fourteen annual reports, we have seen the pattern of the
number of students taking at least one distance course show a steep rise over time.
More recently, there has been a decline in the percent of students studying at a
distance at for-profit institutions, while the overall numbers of distance student
have continued to grow.
This report relies on the National Center for Education Statistics’ Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) tracking of distance education. This
resource will now provide regular, comprehensive information on the extent and
role of online and distance education among U.S. institutions.
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Distance education continued its pattern of growth for yet another year. Fall 2015
saw more than 6 million students taking at least one distance course, having
increased by 3.9% over the previous year. This growth rate was higher than seen in
either of the two previous years.
In higher education, 29.7% of all students are taking at least one distance course.
The total distance enrollments are composed of 14.3% of students (2,902,756)
taking exclusively distance courses and 15.4% (3,119,349) who are taking a
combination of distance and non-distance courses. The vast majority (4,999,112,
or 83.0%) of distance students are studying at the undergraduate level.
Year-to-year changes in distance enrollments have been very uneven, with continued
steady growth for the public sector, greater levels of growth (albeit on a much
smaller base) for the private non-profit sector, and continuation of the decline in
total enrollments for the private for-profit sector for the third year in a row.
The large-scale trends show the growing importance of the private non-profits as a
key player in providing distance education. The top-level trends, however, do
mask the wide variety of changes happening across all of higher education. Even
though each of the three sectors grew at a different rate, the proportion of
institutions within each sector reporting increases was very similar; two-thirds of
the members of each sector reported more distance enrollments in 2015 than
2014. The large-scale declines in enrollments in the for-profit sector were driven
by substantial decreases among a few of the largest institutions, not by an overall
decline among most for-profit institutions.
4
The total number of students studying on campus (those not taking any distance
course or taking a combination of distance and non-distance courses) dropped by
almost one million (931,317) between 2012 and 2015. The largest declines came at
for-profit institutions, which saw a 31.4% drop, followed by 2-year public
institutions, which saw a 10.4% decrease.
5
DEFINITIONS
This report uses data collected under the U.S. Department of Education’s National
Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) Integrated Postsecondary Education Data
System (IPEDS) Fall Enrollment survey. Beginning with Fall 2012, the data includes
distance education enrollments.
Item Definition
Distance education A program for which all the required coursework for
program program completion is able to be completed via distance
education courses.
6
IPEDS collects distance education enrollments in two categories:
• “Some but not all” distance education: The student enrolled in a mix of
course modalities, including some distance education courses.
This report creates a third category – composed of the sum of “exclusively” and
“some but not all” distance education courses:
• "At least one" distance education course: A new data field created as the
sum of the above two categories. This category matches the historical data
reported prior to the fall of 2012, when the BSRG survey was the de facto
data available.
7
PATTERNS IN OVERALL ENROLLMENTS
Overall Higher Education Enrollments are Down
An understanding of the higher education context is important when examining the
patterns and trends for distance education enrollments. After years of growth in
the numbers of students enrolling in higher education, the industry is now facing a
very different situation: the total number of students enrolled has dropped in each
of the past three years.
There were 20,928,443 total students in fall 2012 at all levels enrolled across all
degree-granting institutions that were active and open to the public. Three years
later in the fall of 2015, this number had decreased by 662,076, or 3.2%, to
20,266,367. Overall enrollments decreased by 248,091 students from 2012 to
2013, by 171,822 from 2013 to 2014, and by a further 242,163 from 2014 to 2015.
This pattern represents a new set of conditions for higher education institutions;
the previous period of 2002 through 2012 averaged a 2.7% compound annual
growth rate for overall enrollments. For the first time in over a decade, higher
education institutions find themselves competing for a smaller pool of students.
8
Overall Enrollment Changes Have Been Uneven
Not all areas of higher education are feeling the same pinch. Graduate enrollments
actually grew, showing a small 1.0% gain over the three-year period.
Undergraduate enrollments at four-year institutions remained steady. The decline
stems from undergraduate enrollments at two-year institutions, where there was a
nearly 10% drop – down 688,887, or 9.5% between 2012 and 2015.
Based on data from fall 2015, the vast majority of all U.S. higher education students
attend public institutions. Public institutions represented 72.3% of all fall 2015
enrollments. Private non-profits represented 20.8%, while for-profit institutions
enrolled only 6.9% of all students. It’s important to keep the relative size of these
higher education sectors in mind when reviewing the following data on distance
education. Public institutions represent nearly three-quarters of enrollments, so
even a small percentage change in that sector can have a large impact on the totals.
6.9%
20.8%
Public
Private non-profit
Private for-profit
72.3%
9
Most Distance Enrollments are at Larger Institutions
Larger institutions make up a small portion of all active degree-granting institutions,
but command the lion’s share of student enrollments. Schools with 15,000 or more
total enrollments comprise only 7.1% of all institutions (341 of 4,836), yet they enroll
over nine million students (9,326,861, or 46.0% of all student enrollments).
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
9,326,861
4,000,000
3,000,000
4,586,969
2,000,000
3,608,498
1,000,000
1,236,336 1,507,703
0
Under 1,500 1,500 - 2,999 3,000 - 7,499 7,500 - 14,999 15,000 +
10
DISTANCE ENROLLMENTS
Distance Education Enrollment Growth is Increasing
Students who are taking at least one distance education course comprise 29.7% of
all higher education enrollments as of fall 2015. This share represents the total of
those who are taking all of their courses at a distance, and those who are taking a
combination of distance and non-distance courses. The proportion of the higher
education student body taking advantage of distance education courses has
increased each of the last three years. It stood at 25.9% in 2012, at 27.1% in 2013,
and at 28.3% in 2014.
To put these figures in context, the proportion of students taking at least one
online course for fall 2002 was under ten percent, at 9.6%1. This fraction has
grown as institutions introduced online programs and existing distance programs
grew their enrollments.
30.0%
25.0%
15.4%
14.2%
20.0% 14.1%
13.3%
Some Distance
10.0%
0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015
1
Allen, I.E. and Seaman, J, Grade Change: Tracking Online Education in the United States, Babson Survey Research Group, 2014
11
The number of students taking at least one distance education course increased
3.9% over the previous year, and grew by 11.0% in the three years since 2012. The
3.9% growth rate exceeds that observed between 2012 and 2013 (3.4%) and
between 2013 and 2014 (3.3%). The 6,022,105 total of distance education students
for 2015 includes 4,999,112 who are studying at the undergraduate level, and
1,022,993 who are studying at the graduate level.
6,000,000
1,022,993
961,741
905,274
5,000,000 865,912
4,000,000
Graduate
3,000,000 Undergraduate
4,833,989 4,999,112
4,559,494 4,706,277
2,000,000
1,000,000
-
2012 2013 2014 2015
The most recent growth rates are impressive, as they come at a time of decreasing
overall enrollments. That said, they remain well below the percentage growth
rates observed a decade ago when many institutions were first moving to embrace
distance learning. Year to year percentage increases from 2002 to 2012 were
typically in double digits, helped by the large numbers of institutions introducing
new programs, the growing of the overall student population, and the pent-up
demand by students for these types of programs. The smaller base numbers also
played a role, as the most recent increase would have translated to a double-digit
rate of growth if this same number of additional students had been added to the
base of distance students in 2003 or 2004.
12
Public Institutions Host Two-thirds of All Distance Learners
Among all students who were taking at least one distance course in fall 2015,
1,020,622 (17.8%) were at a private non-profit institution, 870,918 (14.5%) were at
a for-profit institution, and the vast majority, 4,080,565 (67.8%), were at a public
institution. Most distance enrollments at public institutions were at four-year
institutions, with 2,254,708 students (55.3%), while 1,825,857 (44.7%) enrolled at
two-year institutions. Thus, while the public perception has often equated distance
education with the for-profit sector of higher education, public institutions actually
command the market.
14.5%
17.8%
Public
Private non-profit
13
Changes in Distance Enrollments Have Been Uneven
For each one-year period (2012 to 2013, 2013 to 2014, and 2014 to 2015), the
number of distance students at public institutions has shown the greatest numeric
increase. For-profit institutions, by contrast, have seen their total distance
education enrollments decrease in each of these time periods. The net effect has
been an increase every year in the overall number of students taking at least one
distance course.
-100,000
-120,000
While the year-to-year increases in the number of distance students for the public
sector have always been the largest among the three sectors, the size of this
advantage has varied from year to year. Public institutions enjoyed their largest
enrollment gain advantage during the most recent period, with enrollment growth
close to 100,000 more than the increase among private non-profits. The growth
among the private non-profit sector has been very steady, with increases hovering
around 100,000 additional students each year. The for-profit sector had a
decrease in distance enrollments for each period, but these are very uneven, with
the largest drop coming in the most recent time period.
14
Private non-profit institutions have shown the largest percentage change in distance
student enrollments, with double-digit percentage increases for each time period.
The rate of growth among the public sector was lower than for the private non-
profits, but those non-profits began with a lower base. The public growth rate is
still higher than the overall level of growth for all distance education students. The
clear outlier here is the for-profit sector with decreases noted each year, the most
recent being -9.4%.
10.0%
5.4%
4.5%
5.0% 3.0%
0.0%
Public Private non-profit Private for-profit
-2.8%
-5.0%
-6.9%
-10.0%
-9.4%
-15.0%
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
The 2012 to 2015 growth represents 596,699 additional distance students in 2015
over the number in 2012. Comparing 2015 distance enrollments to data from
2012 highlights the great disparities by sector:
The for-profit sector fell to last place among sectors enrolling the most distance
education students. This is a remarkable outcome, considering the for-profit sector led
the private, non-profit sector by more than one-quarter million (297,521) enrollments
in 2012. In 2015, that difference is now 199,704 students in the other direction.
15
The declines among for-profit institutions have been overwhelmingly at the
undergraduate level; whereas private non-profits have shown substantial growth for
both undergraduate and graduate levels. The number of graduate students taking at
least one distance education course dropped by only a few thousand between 2012
and 2015 at four-year for-profit institutions, while their number at the
undergraduate level showed a decline of 177,735 students. Conversely, distance
enrollments at private non-profit institutions grew by a third in their graduate level
distance enrollments, and even more for their undergraduate distance students.
Distance - Distance -
Change 2012 to Percent Change undergraduate undergraduate
Sector of institution 2015 2012 to 2015 2012 2015
Public, 4-year or above 425,714 29.8% 1,428,051 1,853,765
Private non-profit, 4-year or above 197,739 41.7% 474,356 672,095
Private for-profit, 4-year or above (177,735) -22.7% 782,697 604,962
Public, 2-year (11,462) -0.6% 1,837,319 1,825,857
Private non-profit, 2-year 13,181 460.2% 2,864 16,045
Private for-profit, 2-year (7,819) -22.9% 34,207 26,388
Total 439,618 9.6% 4,559,494 4,999,112
Graduate Distance Enrollments – 2012-2015
All of these large-scale changes mask the variety of experiences happening at the
individual institutional level. The rapid growth for the total number of distance
enrollments in the non-profit sector, for example, does not mean that all such
institutions saw growth. Likewise, the decrease in the total number of distance
students among the for-profit sector does not translate to all for-profit institutions
losing distance enrollments.
16
Roughly two-thirds of institutions in all three sectors reported that their distance
enrollments increased between 2012 and 2015, with the remaining one-third
reporting a decrease. The private non-profit sector did have the greatest
proportion of institutions reporting growth, but at 68.0% this is not hugely different
from the rate for the other two sectors. The private for-profit sector, where the
overall number of distance students dropped every year between 2012 and 2015,
had nearly the same proportion of institutions (63.9%) reporting that their
enrollments grew. The proportion of for-profit institutions growing was actually
ever so slightly higher than that of public institutions. It is clear that the drop in
overall number of for-profit distance enrollments has been driven by large losses at
a small number of the very biggest institutions – not by an overall decrease across
the entire sector.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0% 10% 20%
Grew 30%
Steady 40%
Decrease50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Grew Steady Decrease
17
Distance Enrollments Are Concentrated in Relatively Few Institutions
This report examines data from all 4,836 degree-granting institutions that were
active and open to the public in the fall of 2015. Of these, 3,354 (69.3%)
institutions reported having at least one distance education student. The 6,022,105
distance education students are not equally distributed among all institutions.
Institutions
Top 1%
Top 2 to 5%
All others
18
Concentration of Distance Enrollments - 2015
Percentage of
Number of Percentage of Distance Distance
Institutions Institutions Enrollments Enrollments
9 0.19% 615,045 10.2%
47 1.0% 1,385,307 23.0%
235 5.0% 2,873,710 47.7%
471 10.0% 3,845,675 63.9%
3,354 69.3% 6,022,105 100.0%
4,836 100.0% 6,022,105 100.0%
19
Distance Enrollments Are Primarily Undergraduate
There are nearly five times as many undergraduate enrollments (4,999,112) as
graduate enrollments (1,022,993) among students taking at least one distance
education course. The proportion of undergraduates (83.0%) among students
taking at last one distance course is only slightly less than the proportion among
the overall higher education population (85.3%). The proportion of undergraduate
distance students is highest at public institutions (90.2%), a figure that exactly
matches the proportion of their overall student body that is made up of
undergraduates. Other types of institutions have a somewhat smaller proportion of
undergraduates among their distance students than their overall student body, with
for-profit institutions having 72.5% undergraduate among distance students, and
80.0% for the full student body. Similarly, private non-profit institutions have 64.3%
undergraduates among their distance students as compared to 69.8% overall.
90.0%
90.2% 90.2%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
72.5%
69.8%
60.0% 64.3%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Public Private non-profit Private for-profit
Distance Total
20
Students Taking Exclusively Distance Courses
Slightly less than one-half of students taking at least one distance course are taking
only distance courses (48.2%, or 2,902,756 out of 6,022,105). Approximately one-half
of these exclusively distance students are enrolled at public institutions, with the
remaining portion evenly spilt between non-profit and for-profit institutions. While
public institutions host the majority of exclusively distance students, they make up a
much smaller portion of their “at least one” distance enrollments than found at other
institution types. Only 35.7% of all distance students at public institutions are taking
exclusively distance courses. This compares to 64.7% at private non-profit
institutions and 86.5% at private for-profit institutions. Clearly both of the private
sectors have decided on an increased focus on the “fully” distance student.
90.0%
80.0% 86.5%
70.0%
60.0% 64.7%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0% 35.7%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Public Private non-profit Private for-profit
While both the private for-profit and the private non-profit sectors have larger
proportions of their students taking exclusively distance courses, the public sector
has a very large base of distance students, resulting in a population of about as
many exclusively distance students as the other two sectors combined. With over
4 million distance students, even a low percentage yields a sizable total.
21
NUMBER OF STUDENTS TAKING EXCLUSIVELY DISTANCE COURSES - 2015
1,600,000
1,400,000 1,456,696
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
753,346
600,000 692,714
400,000
200,000
0
Public Private non-profit Private for-profit
As has been the case with the other year-to-year comparisons of distance
enrollments, the pattern of change over time of exclusively distance student
enrollments is very different in the for-profit sector than in the other two sectors.
For-profit institutions lost students taking exclusively distance courses for each time
period examined, while public and private non-profit institutions had gains for each of
these periods. Both the public and private non-profit institutions gained over 200,000
such students between 2012 and 2015, while the private for-profits lost 174,553.
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
-
Public Private not-for-profit Private for-profit
22
The On-campus Student
The growth in the number of students who are taking only distance courses,
coupled with the overall decline in the overall number of students enrolled, has
resulted in far fewer students on campus in 2015 than in 2012. The total number
of students who are physically on campus (those not taking any distance course or
taking a combination of distance and non-distance courses) dropped by almost one
million students (931,317) over this time period.
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
Public Private not-for-profit Private for-profit
2012 2013 2014 2015
Private for-profit institutions began the period with less than a million total
students on campus (928,639 of their total of 1,856,538 students in fall 2012), and
had the largest percentage change, with a decrease of 31.4%. Public institutions
lost far more on-campus students (down 539,271 between 2012 and 2015), but
this is from a much larger base and represents only a 3.9% decrease.
23
The rate of decrease among for-profit institutions was similar for both the four-
year and two-year schools, with both reporting the same 31.4% decrease. The
picture is very different at public institutions, however, where four-year public
institutions remained relatively stable (a small percentage increase) but two-year
public institutions lost 10.4% of their on-campus enrollments.
Percent
Change 2012 Change 2012
Sector of institution to 2015 to 2015
Public, 4-year or above 101,445 1.3%
Private non-profit, 4-year or above (113,063) -3.1%
Private for-profit, 4-year or above (181,680) -31.4%
Public, 2-year (640,716) -10.4%
Private non-profit, 2-year 12,200 32.2%
Private for-profit, 2-year (109,503) -31.4%
Total (931,317) -5.1%
24
Understanding the Key Players – The Top 50 Institutions in 2012
To get a better understanding of the dynamics of the distance education market we
can examine the top players (by number of distance enrollments) in both 2012 and
2015. As noted above, distance enrollments are highly concentrated in a small
number of institutions, so while an examination of the top 50 institutions in any
given year reflects only one percent of all high education institutions, they do
represent over one-quarter of all distance enrollments.
The private for-profit institutions on the list are all very focused on distance
education: their distance enrollments represent 98.4% of their overall enrollments.
The private non-profit institutions are only slightly less focused on distance
education (83.8% of their enrollments are at a distance). Public institutions on the
list are very different, however. Among these 27 institutions, the distance
enrollments represent less than one half (46.2%) of their overall enrollments.
25
Top 50 Institutions by Number of Students Taking at Least One Distance Course - 2012
26
Understanding the key players – The Top 50 Institutions in 2015
A listing of the top 50 institutions by distance education enrollments in 2015
includes many of the same names as were present in 2013, with considerable
changes. Virtually all who remained on the list find themselves in a different
position than the one they were in 3 years earlier. Of the 50 schools with the
largest distance enrollments in 2012, 17 were replaced by faster growing
institutions in 2015.
Several of the largest enrollment institutions remained at the top of the list. The
University of Phoenix is number 1 on both lists (albeit with considerably lower
enrollments in 2015), and Liberty University has remained near the top, rising from
number 3 in 2012 to number 2 in 2015. Many of the other top institutions in 2015
came from much further down the list. Southern New Hampshire University
moved from number 50 in 2012 to number 4 in 2015, while Western Governors
University moved up from number 10 to number 2.
The number of public institutions on the top 50 list increased from 27 in 2012 to
30 in 2015, and the proportion of their students studying at a distance remained
the lowest of the three sectors (46.2% in both 2012 and 2015). The number of
private for-profit institutions on the list decreased by one from 13 to 12, and the
proportion of distance students remained very high, dropping from 98.4% in 2012
to 96.1% in 2015. The number of private non-profit institutions on the list
dropped by two, from 10 to 8, while the proportion distance education students
among these 8 institutions was 92.4%, up from the 83.8% figure in 2012.
27
Top 50 Institutions by Number of Students Taking at Least One Distance Course - 2015
2015
2015 Total Distance Percent
Rank Institution ST Enrollment Students Distance Control
1 University of Phoenix-Arizona AZ 165,743 162,003 97.7% Private for-profit
2 Liberty University VA 80,494 72,519 90.1% Private non-profit
3 Western Governors University UT 70,504 70,504 100.0% Private non-profit
4 Southern New Hampshire University NH 61,285 56,371 92.0% Private non-profit
5 Grand Canyon University AZ 69,444 54,543 78.5% Private for-profit
6 Walden University MN 52,799 52,799 100.0% Private for-profit
7 American Public University System WV 52,361 52,361 100.0% Private for-profit
8 University of Maryland-University College MD 50,248 48,677 96.9% Public
9 Kaplan University-Davenport Campus IA 45,355 45,268 99.8% Private for-profit
10 Excelsior College NY 43,123 43,123 100.0% Private non-profit
11 Ashford University CA 42,452 42,046 99.0% Private for-profit
12 Capella University MN 34,365 34,365 100.0% Private for-profit
13 Ivy Tech Community College IN 81,668 34,103 41.8% Public
14 Brigham Young University-Idaho ID 43,803 33,551 76.6% Private non-profit
15 University of Central Florida FL 62,953 33,034 52.5% Public
16 University of Florida FL 50,645 28,838 56.9% Public
17 Florida International University FL 49,782 26,341 52.9% Public
18 Arizona State University-Tempe AZ 51,984 22,809 43.9% Public
19 Colorado Technical University-Online CO 22,757 22,757 100.0% Private for-profit
20 Chamberlain College of Nursing-Illinois IL 23,250 22,114 95.1% Private for-profit
21 Lone Star College System TX 70,724 21,811 30.8% Public
22 University of South Florida-Main Campus FL 42,067 20,993 49.9% Public
23 Columbia Southern University AL 20,823 20,823 100.0% Private for-profit
24 DeVry University-Illinois IL 22,273 20,458 91.9% Private for-profit
25 Full Sail University FL 20,025 19,939 99.6% Private for-profit
26 Houston Community College TX 56,522 19,111 33.8% Public
27 Arizona State University-Skysong AZ 20,273 19,094 94.2% Public
28 The University of Texas at Arlington TX 41,988 17,541 41.8% Public
29 Valencia College FL 44,050 17,216 39.1% Public
30 American College of Financial Services PA 16,764 16,764 100.0% Private non-profit
31 St Petersburg College FL 31,767 16,501 51.9% Public
32 California State University-Northridge CA 41,548 16,130 38.8% Public
33 College of Southern Nevada NV 33,313 14,906 44.7% Public
34 Texas Tech University TX 35,859 14,826 41.3% Public
35 Pennsylvania State University-Main Campus PA 47,307 14,355 30.3% Public
36 University of Cincinnati-Main Campus OH 36,042 13,992 38.8% Public
37 Kent State University at Kent OH 30,067 13,754 45.7% Public
38 Northern Virginia Community College VA 52,078 13,421 25.8% Public
39 Utah State University UT 28,622 13,360 46.7% Public
40 Thomas Edison State University NJ 13,093 13,093 100.0% Public
41 University of Houston TX 42,704 12,961 30.4% Public
42 Florida State University FL 40,830 12,858 31.5% Public
43 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University FL 13,740 12,857 93.6% Private non-profit
44 University of Iowa IA 30,844 12,784 41.4% Public
45 Wilmington University DE 15,002 12,745 85.0% Private non-profit
46 University of North Texas TX 37,299 12,517 33.6% Public
47 University of Alabama at Birmingham AL 18,333 12,371 67.5% Public
48 North Carolina State University at Raleigh NC 34,015 12,321 36.2% Public
49 Cuyahoga Community College District OH 25,449 12,266 48.2% Public
50 Pennsylvania State University-World Campus PA 12,242 12,242 100.0% Public
28
Understanding the Key Players – Change in the Top 50 Institutions 2012-15
There are a variety of dynamics at play across the distance education universe with
different factors impacting the enrollment changes at different institutions. The
forces at work at the few very large private for-profit institutions are different
from those that are driving most other for-profit institutions. In 2015, after three
years, these top 50 institutions from 2012 reported only 1,338,514 distance
students, a decrease of 115,195 (or 7.9%) from their 2012 distance enrollments.
The pattern of change was extremely varied. Southern New Hampshire University
(a private non-profit) led the list with an increase of just under 400% (growing by
45,085 from 11,286 to 56,371). Four other institutions grew their distance
enrollments by more than 10,000 students during this period: Western Governors
University, Brigham Young University-Idaho, University of Central Florida, and
Grand Canyon University. The University of Maryland-University College and the
University of Florida each added over 5,000 distance students. The University of
South Florida-Main Campus and Valencia College did not reach the 5,000-student
mark but did grow their enrollments by nearly 25%.
On the other end of the scale were the University of Phoenix (down 93,343 from
256,346 to 162,003 for a 36.8% decline) and Ashford University (down 34,676 from
76,722 to 42,046 for a 45.2% decline). These two institutions, with a combined
loss of 129,019 distance students, account for more than the entire drop (115,195)
among these 50 institutions.
It is important to note, however, that these numbers are derived from IPEDS fall
enrollment data, which are not always an accurate reflection of the full nature of
enrollment changes. Thomas Edison State University is one such example. As an
institution without regular “fall” or “spring” terms, the normal IPEDS definitions
are not a good fit. The reported 2012 to 2015 decrease of 7,363 students reflects a
definitional change from an annual number in 2012 to a “fall only” number in 2015.
If the 2015 data had used the same approach as 2012 the decline would have been
a much smaller 1,773 students. Other changes in IPEDS reporting approaches (e.g.,
a multi-campus institution changing which campus they consider “home” for
distance students) can also result in reported counts that do not reflect actual
changes in enrollments.
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Distance Enrollment Change 2012 to 2015 - Top 50 Distance Enrollments 2012
Change
Institution ST 2012 2015 2012-15 Control
Southern New Hampshire University NH 11,286 56,371 45,085 Private non-profit
Western Governors University UT 41,369 70,504 29,135 Private non-profit
Brigham Young University-Idaho ID 11,763 33,551 21,788 Private non-profit
University of Central Florida FL 21,782 33,034 11,252 Public
Grand Canyon University AZ 44,006 54,543 10,537 Private for-profit
University of Maryland-University College MD 42,165 48,677 6,512 Public
University of Florida FL 23,180 28,838 5,658 Public
University of South Florida-Main Campus FL 16,241 20,993 4,752 Public
Excelsior College NY 39,728 43,123 3,395 Private non-profit
Valencia College FL 13,985 17,216 3,231 Public
Lone Star College System TX 18,602 21,811 3,209 Public
Walden University MN 50,209 52,799 2,590 Private for-profit
Liberty University VA 69,935 72,519 2,584 Private non-profit
College of Southern Nevada NV 13,270 14,906 1,636 Public
Houston Community College TX 17,524 19,111 1,587 Public
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University- FL 11,368 12,857 1,489 Private non-profit
Florida
WorldwideInternational University FL 25,028 26,341 1,313 Public
Pennsylvania State University-Main Campus PA 13,238 14,355 1,117 Public
Columbia Southern University AL 19,933 20,823 890 Private for-profit
Columbus State Community College OH 11,558 11,907 349 Public
Colorado Technical University-Online CO 22,608 22,757 149 Private for-profit
Cuyahoga Community College District OH 12,418 12,266 (152) Public
St Petersburg College FL 16,669 16,501 (168) Public
National University CA 12,775 12,116 (659) Private non-profit
Northern Arizona University AZ 12,544 11,769 (775) Public
Portland Community College OR 11,822 10,849 (973) Public
Kaplan University-Davenport Campus IA 46,374 45,268 (1,106) Private for-profit
DeVry University-Illinois IL 21,616 20,458 (1,158) Private for-profit
Capella University MN 35,754 34,365 (1,389) Private for-profit
South University Savannah Online GA 12,364 10,781 (1,583) Private for-profit
Columbia College MO 11,718 9,870 (1,848) Private non-profit
Tarrant County College District TX 12,290 10,377 (1,913) Public
American InterContinental University-Online IL 14,170 11,560 (2,610) Private for-profit
Nova Southeastern University FL 14,983 12,147 (2,836) Private non-profit
Tidewater Community College VA 13,164 9,989 (3,175) Public
Wake Technical Community College NC 11,853 8,642 (3,211) Public
Full Sail University FL 23,486 19,939 (3,547) Private for-profit
Rio Salado College AZ 16,902 12,092 (4,810) Public
Middle Tennessee State University TN 11,416 6,088 (5,328) Public
Northern Virginia Community College VA 19,152 13,421 (5,731) Public
American Public University System W 58,115 52,361 (5,754) Private for-profit
Troy University AL
V 15,444 8,824 (6,620) Public
Thomas Edison State University NJ 20,456 13,093 (7,363) Public
Ivy Tech Community College IN 42,821 34,103 (8,718) Public
Arizona State University-Tempe AZ 36,095 22,809 (13,286) Public
CUNY Borough of Manhattan Community NY 16,546 1,465 (15,081) Public
Pima Community College
College AZ 27,677 7,425 (20,252) Public
Everest University-South Orlando FL 33,239 8,851 (24,388) Private non-profit
Ashford University CA 76,722 42,046 (34,676) Private for-profit
University of Phoenix AZ 256,346 162,003 (94,343) Private for-profit
30
METHODOLOGY
The sample for this analysis is comprised of all active, degree-granting institutions
of higher education in the United States that are open to the public.
The enrollment data for this report uses information from the U.S. Department of
Education’s National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) database2. IPEDS is a national census
of postsecondary institutions in the U.S., which represents the most comprehensive
data available. Through the IPEDS Data Center, individuals can download data files
for one or more institutions with information from any of the IPEDS components or
download complete data files, produce reports, or create group statistics.
In February 2017, NCES released the fourth year of IPEDS Fall Enrollment data that
includes distance education enrollments. In addition, IPEDS data is occasionally
revised, and the enrollment data for fall 2014 represent one such revised data set.
The enrollment figures in this report use the recently released revised data for fall
2014 and will therefore vary slightly from those previously published, including
those in prior reports from the Digital Learning Compass members. Institutional
descriptive data for the current year also come from the National Center for
Educational Statistics’ IPEDS database.
The focus of this report is the distance education data that has been collected by
IPEDS for the fall 2012, fall 2013, fall 2014 and fall 2015 terms. IPEDS reporting
includes a number of other variables that describe the size, sector, and focus of
each institution of higher education. This data allows us to compare institutions
using a consistent set of definitions provided by the IPEDS survey.
Previous reports from the Babson Survey Research Group that predate IPEDS
distance education enrollment data used a somewhat different definition. The
BSRG measure of “online offerings” was defined as broadly as possible; any offering
of any length to any audience at any time. IPEDS takes a much narrower view. For
example, IPEDS counts undergraduate offerings for “a student enrolled in a 4- or 5-
year bachelor's degree program, an associate's degree program, or a vocational or
technical program below the baccalaureate.”3 Non-credit courses (e.g., courses for
continuing education units that are not credit-bearing, informational courses for
alumni, and non-credit MOOCs) do not qualify for the IPEDS definition.
2
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/DataFiles.aspx
3
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/glossary/?charindex=D
31
TABLES
Overall Higher Education Enrollment
32
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN TOTAL ENROLLMENT - DEGREE-GRANTING INSTITUTIONS - 2012-
2015
Percentage Change Change 2012 2012 2015
Level of institution 2012 - 2015 - 2015 Enrollment Enrollment
Undergraduate: 4 year school 0.0% 4,920 10,763,773 10,758,853
Undergraduate: 2 year school -9.5% 688,887 7,214,275 6,525,388
Graduate 1.1% -31,731 2,950,395 2,982,126
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Distance Enrollments
34
YEAR-TO-YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN DISTANCE ENROLLMENTS - DEGREE-GRANTING
INSTITUTIONS - 2012-2015
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Public 4.5% 3.0% 5.4%
Private non-profit 12.9% 11.4% 11.4%
Private for-profit -6.9% -2.8% -9.4%
35
NUMBER OF STUDENTS TAKING EXCLUSIVELY DISTANCE COURSES - 2012-2015
Control of institution 2012 2013 2014 2015
Public 1,231,816 1,282,687 1,378,395 1,456,696
Private not-for-profit 473,800 556,434 632,660 692,714
Private for-profit 927,899 862,563 844,143 753,346
Total 2,633,515 2,701,684 2,855,198 2,902,756
36