The Digital Revolu�on and

Sustainable Development:
Opportuni�es and
Challenges

Report prepared by
The World in 2050 ini�a�ve
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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First published in July 2019

Recommended citation:
TWI2050 - The World in 2050 (2019). The Digital Revolution and Sustainable Development: Opportunities and
Challenges. Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. www.twi2050.org

Available at: pure.iiasa.ac.at/15913/

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 The Digital Revolution and
Sustainable Development:
Opportunities and Challenges

Report prepared by
The World in 2050 initiative

Authors
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Dirk Messner, Caroline Zimm, Geoff Clarke, Johan Rockström,
Ana Paula Aguiar, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Lorenza Campagnolo, Ilan Chabay, David Collste,
Luis Comolli, Luis Gomez-Echeverri, Anne Goujon, Arnulf Grubler, Reiner Jung, Miho Kamei,
George Kamiya, Elmar Kriegler, Michael Kuhn, Julia Leininger, Charles Martin-Shields,
Beatriz Mayor-Rodriguez, Jerry Miller, Apollonia Miola, Keywan Riahi, Maria Schewenius,
Jörn Schmidt, Kristina Skierka, Odirilwe Selomane, Uno Svedin, Paul Yillia

Contributors
Tateo Arimoto, Bill Colglazier, Arthur Contejean, Ines Dombrowsky, Tanvi Jaluka,
Hermann Lotze-Campen, Kris Murray, Michel Noussan, Mihail C. Roco, Lucilla Spini,
Mark Stoeckle, Sander van der Leuw, Detlef van Vuuren, Eric Zusman
Foreword
The Digital Revolution, including technologies such as virtual and augmented reality, additive manufacturing or
3D-printing, (general purpose) artificial intelligence, or the Internet of Things, has entered the public discourse
in many countries. Looking back, it is almost impossible to believe that digitalization is barely featured in the
2030 Agenda or the Paris Agreement. It is increasingly clear that digital changes, we refer to them as the Digital
Revolution, are becoming a key driving force in societal transformation. The transformation towards sustainability
for all must be harmonized with the threats, opportunities and dynamics of the Digital Revolution, the goals of
the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement. At the same time, the digital transformation will radically alter all
dimensions of global societies and economies and will therefore change the interpretation of the sustainability
paradigm itself. Digitalization is not only an ‘instrument’ to resolve sustainability challenges, it is also fundamental
as a driver of disruptive change.
This report that focuses on the Digital Revolution is the second one by The World in 2050 (TWI2050) that
was established by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and other partners to provide
scientific foundations for the 2030 Agenda. This report is based on the voluntary and collaborative effort of 45
authors and contributors from about 20 institutions, and some 100 independent experts from academia, business,
government, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations from all the regions of the world, who met
four times at IIASA to develop science-based strategies and pathways toward achieving the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs). Presentations of the TWI2050 approach and work have been made at many international meetings
such as the United Nations Science, Technology and Innovation Forums and the United Nations High-level Political
Forums.
In 2018, the first report by TWI2050 on Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals identified
Six Exemplary Transformations needed to achieve the SDGs and long-term sustainability to 2050 and beyond: i)
Human Capacity & Demography; ii) Consumption & Production; iii) Decarbonization & Energy, iv) Food, Biosphere
& Water; v) Smart Cities and vi) Digital Revolution.
The focus of this report is the Sixth Transformation, The Digital Revolution. Although it is arguably the single
greatest enabler of sustainable development, it has, in the past, helped create many negative externalities like
transgression of planetary boundaries. Progress on the SDGs will be facilitated if we can build and implement
detailed science, technology and innovation (STI) roadmaps at all levels that range from local to global. STI is a
forceful driver of change connected to all 17 SDGs. The Digital Revolution provides entirely new and enhanced
capacities and thus serves as a major force in shaping both the systemic context of transformative change and
future solutions; at the same time it potentially carries strong societal disruptive power if not handled with caution,
care, and innovativeness.
This report assesses all the positive potential benefits digitalization brings to sustainable development for all.
It also highlights the potential negative impacts and challenges going forward, particularly for those impacted
by the ‘digital divide’ that excludes primarily people left behind during the Industrial Revolution like the billion
that go hungry every night and the billion who do not have access to electricity. The report outlines the necessary
preconditions for a successful digital transformation, including prosperity, social inclusion, environmental
sustainability and good governance. Importantly it outlines some of the dramatic social implications associated
with an increasingly digital future. It also covers a topic that so far has not been sufficiently dealt with in the
cross-over discussions between sustainability and the Digital Revolution, that is, the considerations about related
governance aspects.
Completion of this report has involved voluntary and sustained contributions from many colleagues around
the world. Special thanks and gratitude go to all contributing institutions that provided personal and institutional
support throughout. We are especially grateful for the contribution and support of the IIASA team that has provided
substantial in-kind support and vision needed to conduct an initiative of this magnitude. Special thanks go to
my IIASA colleagues Caroline Zimm and Pat Wagner for coordinating and managing TWI2050, to all authors and
contributors without whose knowledge and dedication this report would not have been possible.

iii
 The publication of this report in July 2019 and its launch during the United Nations High-level Political Forum is
timely. TWI2050 outlines nine key considerations on the linkages between the digital and sustainability revolutions
– both positive and negative – and the critical issues that need to be addressed to maximize the opportunities and
minimize the risks of digitalization to a sustainable future. It is my belief that this report will provide policy and
decision makers around the world with invaluable new knowledge to inform action and commitment towards
achieving the SDGs in a new era. I hope it will be a roadmap toward a sustainable future in the Digital Anthropocene
and will divert from the alternatives that transcend the planetary boundaries and leave billions behind.

Nebojsa Nakicenovic
TWI2050 Executive Director

iv
Table of Contents
Key Considerations: Digitalization and Sustainability in the Anthropocene 7

1. Six Fundamental Transformations for a Sustainable Future for All 17

2. Report Outline 19

3. The Digital Revolution 19

4. Preconditions for a Sustainable Digital Revolution 23

4.1 Prosperity 24
4.2 Social Inclusion – Overcoming the Digital Divide 25
4.3 Environmentally Oriented Sustainability 28
4.4 Inclusive Good Governance and Peace 29

5. Digitalization and Sustainable Development 33

5.1 A Systems View 33
5.2 Human Capacity & Demography 33
5.2.1 Health 33
5.2.2 Education 38
5.2.3 Gender Equality and Empowerment 42
5.3 Consumption & Production 44
5.3.1 Additive Manufacturing 46
5.3.2 Financial Services 48
5.3.3 The Future of Work 51
5.4 Decarbonization & Energy 53
5.4.1 Energy Systems 53
5.4.2 Climate 57
5.5 Food, Biosphere & Water 59
5.5.1 Agriculture and Food Systems 59
5.5.2 Forest Conservation and Restoration 61
5.5.3 The Digital Ocean 64
5.5.4 Water 66
5.6 Smart Cities 69
5.6.1 Mobility 69
5.6.2 Smart Spaces, Buildings, and Homes 73

6. Governing the Transformation toward Sustainability in the Digital Age 77

Abbreviations 83

References 85

Authors and Contributors 93

Partnering Organizations 95

v
Key Considerations: Digitalization and Sustainability in the Anthropocene

“It seems probable that once the machine thinking method had started,
it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers. They would be
able to converse with each other to sharpen their wits. At some stage
therefore, we should have to expect the machines to take control.”
Alan Turing during a lecture on 15 May 1951 broadcast by the BBC

Key Considerations:
Digitalization and Sustainability in
the Anthropocene
The predicament of humankind is to achieve a sustainable future for all within a safe and just operating space of
a stable Earth system. There is significant inequality between and within societies, with billions left behind and
overwhelming evidence of rising global risks due to ever-increasing human pressures on the planet. Ensuring
future sustainability for all will require socioeconomic development that improves human wellbeing while
preserving the resilience of the Earth’s system within planetary boundaries (Rockström et al., 2009; Steffen et al.,
2015; TWI2050, 2018).
In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (UN, 2015a), which provides
an aspirational narrative and an actionable agenda to be achieved by 2030. The Agenda includes 17 Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets for realizing the desired future for human development. It specifies
far-reaching, time-bound, and often quantified objectives based on a comprehensive consultation among nations
and civil society. For the first time, a world development agenda has been adopted that integrates ambitious goals
for inclusive social and economic development for all with the parallel aim of achieving global environmental
targets for land, oceans, freshwater, biodiversity, and climate, and, thereby, the protection of the global commons
(Nakicenovic et al., 2016). The Agenda essentially presents a roadmap for redefining sustainable development as
a people and planet agenda – a prosperous and fair world within planetary boundaries. Together with the 2015
Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015), which commits all signatories to a long-term target of keeping global warming
to “well below 2°C” and if possible below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as well as the 2015 Addis Ababa Action
Agenda (UN, 2015b), the 2030 Agenda recognizes the necessity of attaining inclusive and fair social, economic, and
technological development with adequate finance within the safe operating space of a stable and resilient climate
and other Earth systems.
The Digital Revolution, including virtual and augmented reality (virtual reality and AR), additive manufacturing
(AM), (general purpose) artificial intelligence (AI), deep learning, robotics, big data, Internet of Things (IoT),
and automated decision-making systems, has entered the public discourse in many countries. Looking back, it is
almost impossible to believe that digitalization is barely featured in the 2030 Agenda1 or the Paris Agreement. It is
increasingly clear that digital changes are becoming a key driving force in societal transformation (Domingos, 2015;
Schwab, 2016; Tegmark, 2017; Craglia et al, 2018). The transformation toward sustainability must be harmonized
with the threats, opportunities, and dynamics of the Digital Revolution, and the goals of the 2030 Agenda and the
Paris Agreement (WBGU, 2018; Villani, 2018; TWI2050, 2018). At the same time, the digital transformation will
radically alter all dimensions of global societies and economies, and it will, therefore, change the interpretation of
the sustainability paradigm itself. Digitalization is not only an “instrument” for resolving sustainability challenges,
it is also a fundamental driver of disruptive, multiscalar change. The Digital Age can be characterized by three
major dynamics, as illustrated in Figure 1.

1 While some individual technologies, foremost telecommunication technologies (e.g., mobile phones or the Internet)
are mentioned within the SDGs, the overall impact of digitalization is not covered, except for one reference to the digital
divide in para. 15 (UN, 2015): “The spread of information and communications technology and global interconnectedness
has great potential to accelerate human progress, to bridge the digital divide and to develop knowledge societies, as does
scientific and technological innovation across areas as diverse as medicine and energy.”

7
 Key Considerations

Figure 1. Three possible dynamics of the Digital Age. The chart shows the positive case of the dynamics being
successfully diffused through goals and governance. All three are already emerging in parallel, albeit with different
levels of intensity, so there is no strict chronological sequence involved. Each dynamic consists of multiple pathways
that follow different technology trajectories. The name given to each dynamic reflects the priorities for action
required in each case. For illustrative purposes, we show a simplified version that does not cover all emerging
technology clusters and possible pathways. Source: Adapted from WBGU (2019).

Here we outline nine key considerations on the links – both positive and negative – between the digital and
sustainability revolutions, and the critical issues that need to be addressed to maximize the opportunities and
minimize the risks of digitalization for a sustainable future.
1. Digitalization from the perspective of human history – a new era is emerging. Homo sapiens is a young
species that emerged over 250,000 years ago. Our species experienced a first cognitive revolution 70,000 years
ago when fictive, complex languages emerged. Complex language distinguishes us from all other species. It has
helped us learn and accumulate knowledge based on communication and to combine our own perceptions
of the world with the perspectives of many others. This revolution triggered an unprecedented capability to
accumulate knowledge, to cooperate, to develop shared intentionalities, and to build highly complex social
systems – from small groups in the Stone Age, to the first larger cities some 5,000 years ago, to the globalized
economic, technological, and social systems of the world we live in today. Language, communication, cognition,
and cooperation capabilities are the starting point of the cultural evolution of our species (Messner & Weinlich,
2016).
Accumulation of knowledge and intelligence is a major common asset of humanity and it is truly renewable.
Over the last 10,000 years, humanity has moved through two fundamental civilizational phases. The Holocene
period, which began after the last Ice Age (some 10,000 years ago), was characterized by a long sequence of
warm years, relatively calm conditions, and a stable climate. During this period, the Neolithic Revolution led to
the cultivation of plants and domestication of animals, which in turn resulted in the emergence of villages, the
first small-scale societies, and early civilizations.
Two hundred years ago, the Industrial Revolution radically changed humanity through an explosive
accumulation of knowledge. The invention of machine-supported and labor-saving work enhanced manual
skills and capacities, resulting in a hundredfold increase in productivity through, for example, technological
innovations, the uptake of fossil fuels, steam, steel, and mechanization. The Industrial Revolution resulted in
a globally connected economy, an emerging global society, globally networked infrastructure and mobility,
vast increases in productivity, and – for some of the global population – significant wealth creation. At the
same time, the Industrial Revolution also resulted in unequal distribution patterns and major Earth-system
changes that have become real threats to human civilization. Humans have caused a very rapid and dramatic
transformation of environmental conditions, threatening a dramatic departure from the Holocene conditions
that were so favorable for human development. This emerging new era in Earth’s history has been termed the
Anthropocene (Crutzen & Stroemer, 2000).
The Digital Revolution, which began in the 1950s and is currently accelerating exponentially, marks a third
civilizational revolution. Digitalization is a powerful multiplier of trans-scalar economic, social, and cultural

8
 Key Considerations

connectivity, merging physical and virtual realities. Even more importantly, it is characterized by the creation
of technical systems (e.g., artificial intelligence and deep learning) with cognitive capabilities that already
enhance human cognition, and will eventually complement, sometimes replace, or perhaps eventually far
surpass human cognitive capabilities, at least in certain functional areas. Recently, real numbers emerged
spontaneously without being explicitly programmed to do so in a “biologically inspired deep neural network
that was merely trained on visual object recognition. This performance showed all the characteristics of human
and animal number discriminations as predicted by the Weber-Fechner law” (Nasr et al., 2019).
Sustainability transformations need to be developed, implemented, and rethought in this newly configured
context of the Digital Age, which we might call the Digital Anthropocene (WBGU, 2019). What are the key
elements for describing the opportunities, turbulences, and challenges ahead, and how can humanity render
the Digital Anthropocene an era of sustainability for all?
2. Digital technologies can enable a disruptive revolution toward a Sustainable Anthropocene. The previous
TWI2050 report and many studies (Acatech, 2015, 2016; TWI2050, 2018) show that digital technologies can, at
a much faster rate than ever before, help (as enablers) decarbonization across all sectors (e.g., energy, mobility,
and industry), and promote circular and shared economies, dematerialization, resource and energy efficiency
and sufficiency, the monitoring and conservation of ecological and other Earth systems, the protection of the
global commons, and sustainable behaviors. However, this is not an automatic process and will not happen
by itself. In fact, until now, the opposite has generally been the case: the digital transitions of recent decades
have perpetuated, or even triggered, resource and greenhouse-gas-intensive growth patterns. Technology has
not yet been mobilized toward sustainability transformations. Therefore, a radical reversal of current trends
is needed to reduce the disruptive potentials of digitalization and create pathways toward sustainability. The
report TWI2050 (2018) (see Box 1) highlights Six Fundamental Transformations (Figure 2) needed to achieve
the 17 SDGs and long-term sustainability for all: (i) Human Capacity & Demography; (ii) Consumption &
Production; (iii) Decarbonization & Energy; (iv) Food, Biosphere & Water; (v) Smart Cities; and (vi) the Digital
Revolution (see section 1).
Since many transformations toward sustainable development will take a long time to run their course, the
SDGs should be regarded as mid-points toward achieving sustainable development by 2050 and beyond. There
is an urgent need for corresponding regulatory policies, incentives, and shifts in perspectives, which currently
only exist in a small number of sectors and a few countries. We propose Six Essential Mechanisms that can
link digital dynamics with sustainability strategies to enable the Six Fundamental Transformations: (i) shifting
innovation vision and patterns by creating sustainable digitalization perspectives in the science, research, and
R&D communities; (ii) mobilizing market forces by getting the prices right, for example, through carbon pricing
and ecological tax reforms that incentivize the mobilization of digital innovations in support of sustainable
solutions; (iii) helping to shift markets and planning processes in a sustainable direction by using digitalization to
visualize and establish transformation roadmaps that include sharper definitions of clear goals and milestones
for energy, mobility, land use systems, cities, and industrial sectors; (iv) investing in digital modernization
programs at the state level to massively increase digital knowledge in public institutions in order to build
governance capacities in the Digital Anthropocene; (v) transforming sustainability research by supporting and
scaling up strong networks with the digital research communities; and (vi) creating dialogue structures with
the private sector, civil society, science, and the state to develop joint perspectives on institutional, social, and
normative guardrails in the Digital Anthropocene.
3. Governance is urgently needed – the disruptive dynamics of digitalization are challenging the absorptive
capacities of our societies, possibly multiplying the already alarming trends of eroding social cohesion.
If not shaped appropriately and geared to the 17 SDGs of the 2030 Agenda and the associated Six Fundamental
Transformations, digitalization could magnify already existing problems in many societies. We see four major
challenges or “slippery slopes”: (i) inequalities (e.g., in the labor market, in education systems, and in the
division of labor at the international level) and dissipative forces within society could further increase; (ii)
economic, and by extension political, power could become even more concentrated (consider, for example, the
significance of the “big five” – Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft for digital transformation); (iii) data
sovereignty and civic rights could be restricted further and the monitoring of citizens and consumers (“social
scoring”) stepped up, especially in authoritarian societies and irresponsible companies; and (iv) governance
capacities of public organizations could erode further, since, for example, it is already very difficult to regulate
big digital business and essentially impossible in virtual environments, particularly because digital knowledge
is still very limited in most governments and public institutions.

9
 Key Considerations

Figure 2. TWI2050 focuses on Six Transformations that capture much of the global, regional, and local dynamics and
encompass major drivers of future changes: (i) Human Capacity & Demography; (ii) Consumption & Production;
(iii) Decarbonization & Energy; (iv) Food, Biosphere & Water; (v) Smart Cities; and (vi) the Digital Revolution.
Together, they provide a people-centered perspective, enabling the building of local, national, and global societies
and economies that secure the wealth creation, poverty reduction, fair distribution, and inclusiveness necessary
for human prosperity. They are necessary and potentially sufficient to achieve the SDGs if addressed holistically
and in unison. Source: TWI2050 (2018).

Box 1. The World in 2050 Initiative (www.TWI2050.org)

Today, no science-based pathways have been developed for successfully achieving all the SDGs simultaneously.
The global transformations necessary to achieve the SDGs urgently need a robust scientific foundation and fact-
based way forward. The World in 2050 (TWI2050) is a global multiyear, multi-stakeholder, interdisciplinary
research initiative designed to help address these issues. TWI2050 is a partnership between science and policy
that aims not only to contribute to this understanding, but also to develop science-based transformational and
equitable pathways to sustainable development that can provide much-needed information and guidance for
policymakers responsible for the implementation of the SDGs, such as the UN High-level Political Forum on
Sustainable Development.
Using an integrated and systemic approach, TWI2050 addresses the full spectrum of transformational
challenges related to achieving the 17 SDGs. It seeks to avoid potential conflicts among them, to reap the
benefits of potential synergies, and to reach the just and safe target space for people and planet by 2050 and
beyond. This approach is the first goal-based, multi-model quantitative and qualitative integrated analysis that
encompasses the full set of SDGs. The successful identification of sustainable development pathways (SDPs)
requires a comprehensive, robust approach that spans disciplines and methodologies, and that can deal with
non-linearity. The consortium under the umbrella of the TWI2050 initiative has been put together to reflect
these necessary competencies. A core strength that sets TWI2050 apart from other initiatives contributing to
scientific knowledge creation for the SDGs is its competence in Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and
pathway development. However, to best tackle sustainable development challenges in the 2030 timeframe
and beyond, TWI2050 seeks to further deepen and better integrate knowledge and analytical capacity across
social, political, technical, and Earth systems.
A starting point for analyzing pathways toward goals is to establish an agreed framework. TWI2050
proposes an overarching framing narrative and quantitative and time-bound targets and indicators that set the
outer boundary conditions for the transformation of the world between now and 2050 through the SDGs and
the Paris Agreement. The objective is to mobilize the international research community to explore multiple

10
 Key Considerations

SDPs by applying backcasting analyses of how to achieve the goals in the framing narrative at multiple scales.
At an overarching level, the objective is to achieve all SDGs by 2030, and by 2050 to continue meeting all SDGs
in an evolving prosperous and just world for all while stabilizing the Earth system within planetary boundaries
and remaining cognizant of the dynamics of Earth and human systems on a longer time horizon to 2100.
The TWI2050 framework (Figure 3) includes qualitative and quantitative elements and consists of the
following: (i) a broad transformational narrative; (ii) targets and indicators for 2030 and 2050; and (iii)
specific SDPs that include quantitative elements based on modeling approaches (TWI2050, 2018). These
are paired with governance elements that induce the transformations and are thus an integral part of the
overall framework. There can be many alternative pathways that explore branching points, lock-ins, resilience,
inclusiveness, cooperation, and differing transformational dynamics. The TWI2050 framework is designed
to allow modeling and analytical groups to identify and explore a portfolio of measures needed to achieve
all SDGs, and to jointly account for synergies and trade-off. With such common goals and agreed common
assumptions, the framework facilitates comparison between results.

Figure 3. An illustration of the TWI2050 conceptual framework. Two sets of science-based, normative targets
provide boundaries for the transformation toward a sustainable future. The first are symbolized by the SDGs
for 2030 and the second for 2050 and beyond, and symbolizes the achievement of a just and equitable future
for all on a resilient planet. The gray band illustrates the overarching narrative that indicates how the future is
connected to the present. The narrative is about what needs to change to achieve the transformation toward
sustainability by ‘backcasting’ from the normative targets. Also shown are alternative SDPs that provide model-
based quantifications of the transformational changes. They can be interpreted as alternative realizations of
the overarching narrative. Source: TWI2050 (2018).

At the same time, digitalization could also help to tackle these four slippery slopes. There are, however, very few
instances of successful processes for shaping and governing digitalization around the world. The key question is
whether digitalization in its current form is amenable to “social steering” without new governance and policies.
Accelerated technological developments threaten to overwhelm citizens, institutions and governments alike.
4. The Digital Revolution opens new doors to a quantum leap of human civilization – the post-2030 Agenda
era is already starting. Development pathways will encounter uncertainties, deep and digitally driven societal
and economic reconfigurations, and lock-ins that will emerge over the next decade. Policymakers, researchers,
companies, and civil society actors must intensify their efforts to understand and explain the multiple effects
of digital change and to anticipate far-reaching structural change so that they can create a basis for shaping the
digitalization process and gearing it toward sustainability transformations. Digital disruption is locking us into
new economic, societal, and cultural realities and challenges. Virtual reality, artificial intelligence, deep learning,
big data, and games are increasingly being used in planning and scenario-building processes, improving our
cognitive capacity to understand the implications of decisions in complex socioecological systems and the

11
 Key Considerations

multiple perspectives that can guide better decisions. These are powerful tools for supporting transformation
processes.
Autonomous technical and decision-making systems, based on learning machines and general purpose artificial
intelligence, will fundamentally transform all areas of society and the economy in the near future (Acatech, 2015;
Barrat, 2013; Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2014; Schwab, 2016; Bughin et al., 2017; Tegmark, 2017; Villani, 2018,
DiPLo, 2019). By processing enormous volumes of data, artificial-intelligence-based devices and machinery
will steer production processes, traffic, and financial flows, revolutionize medical diagnostics and treatments,
change the way insurance companies make decisions, generate behavioral forecasts for individuals and groups
(Domingos, 2015), and make decision documents available to parliaments and governments. The evolution of
Human intelligence has had no rival since Homo sapiens emerged. Now it is being supplemented by artificial
intelligence, which, in some areas at least, is far superior to human analytical capabilities. Linking human and
artificial intelligence and creating “meaningful artificial intelligence” geared to the goals of sustainable human
development (Villani, 2018) is set to become a major task for humanity in the first half of the 21st century.
The next decades will be characterized by numerous digitally driven, deep structural changes and related
uncertainties.
Sustainability pathways need to be developed, shaped, and governed within the context of deep societal
transitions and high degrees of uncertainty. Asking the right questions is important. How can we reduce the
error rate of (globally) connected and increasingly self-organizing technical infrastructure and make it more
robust? How can our legal systems and institutions keep pace with accelerated technological change? How
can the unintended effects of private investment in the development of self-learning technical systems and
virtual environments be understood by citizens and governments, and be geared to, and shaped in accordance
with, our standards systems? How can prosperity be multiplied through automation, while simultaneously
observing the principle of leaving no one behind? What are the implications of the technological revolution for
the poorest developing countries (Tegmark, 2017)? And even more far-reaching questions: Where is the line
when it comes to using technology to alter, improve, and manipulate people’s cognitive, physical and emotional
capacities? What ethical guardrails should be put in place in the discussion about the transformation of humans
and human enhancement (WBGU, 2019) and autonomous systems (e.g., IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of
Autonomous and Intelligent systems2)? Which tasks can intelligent machines manage better than humans
(Gluckmann and Kristiann, 2018)? Where and how should human judgement play a role? How will machine
learning transform (democratic) human decision making? How can we avoid creating digital, self-organizing
systems and networks, with potential control over human behavior, that could be misused by powerful actors
(Renn, 2019; WBGU, 2019)? These questions, all of which relate to still unknown territory, are not described
in the 2030 Agenda; however, they illustrate the magnitude of the formative tasks associated with the digital
transformation in the context of building a sustainable global society.
Based on a comprehensive assessment of digital dynamics, the German Advisory Council on Global Change
(WBGU, 2019) identifies seven major digital tipping points that are related to the four slippery slopes outlined
above. These tipping points reflect characteristics of our current societies, but they also take into consideration
the digitally driven and deep configurations of our economic, social, political, and cultural systems over the
next 10–30 years, and they identify possible developments that will potentially destabilize our societies: (i)
exceeding planetary boundaries and triggering tipping points in the Earth system based on digitally driven
resource- and emission-intensive growth patterns that are not redirected toward sustainability by political
guardrails; (ii) disempowerment of individuals, including fundamental threats to privacy and citizen rights,
comprehensive digital surveillance of people, and digitally empowered authoritarianism or totalitarianism; (iii)
undermining of democracy and inclusiveness by normatively and institutionally automated decision-making
systems, which are already being used in a growing number of areas, especially in the digitalized private sector;
(iv) national, regional, and even global dominance of private companies, undermining democratic control
and driven by further data-based power concentration; (v) disruptions of labor markets by comprehensive
automatization – raising concerns that human labor is becoming irrelevant for the economy; (vi) deep division of
the global society resulting from digital opportunities mainly being mobilized by a transnational elite; and (vii)
uncontrolled human-enhancement or artificial evolution methods that will lead to large-scale transformation
of humanity.
5. The paradox of the Digital Anthropocene: digitalization is creating essential preconditions for the Six
Fundamental Transformations toward sustainability and is also endangering them. Beyond the uncertainties
and possible societal tipping points of the Digital Anthropocene, there are unprecedented digital opportunities
and digital game changers that can make the transformations toward sustainability happen. First, technologically,
2 https://ethicsinaction.ieee.org

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 Key Considerations

the shift from linear to circular economies is now within reach. We could decouple wealth creation from
resource consumption, emissions, and ecosystem degradation. Comprehensive monitoring of the planet is
becoming possible and could help to conserve and protect global ecosystems.
Second, knowledge breakthroughs and explosions offer unprecedented new potential for humanity, provided
that the digitalization process and associated technologies (e.g., new composite materials, nanotechnology
and nanobiotechnology, genetic engineering, synthetic biology, biomimetics, quantum computing, additive
manufacturing, and human enhancement) are shaped appropriately. Artificial intelligence, deep learning, and
big data will also transform science and open new doors to a next phase of human civilization. Virtual access
to the most advanced global knowledge about humanity and the planet could be used to achieve a fair, decent,
and safe future for everyone.
Third, digital dynamics could enable cultural, institutional, and behavioral innovations. Transnational
communication networks could help to build a networked global society, transnational governance
mechanisms, global common goods perspectives, cultures of global cooperation, and transnational identities,
and they might create new (sub-)cultures. Virtual networks of people from around the globe might improve our
understanding of cultural diversity. Virtual realities will enable humans to “visit,” understand, enjoy, and “feel”
global ecosystems without long-distance travel. In parallel, new options are quickly expanding for democracy-
promoting mechanisms through the use of digitalized “voting” procedures, including online checks for local
decision making about practical but important governance issues related to transformation and reform
preferences (Ekenberg et al., 2017). These emerging innovations present potentially positive characteristics of
a new age of humanity.
The printing press, which from an artificial intelligence perspective may appear to be a rather small step in
human development, was the innovation that enabled the Enlightenment, scientific investigation, democracy,
and the Industrial Revolution. Might we see a new kind of Enlightenment as a result of combining artificial
and human intelligence with human empathy, intentionality, and social intelligence? How can we exploit the
potential of digitalization and the associated wealth of new knowledge in order to tackle the major challenges
facing humanity in the 21st century, while avoiding the daunting risks of accelerated technological changes
running out of control? These questions make clear that fundamental transformations in our systems of
education and global knowledge transfer are urgently needed.
6. Human enhancement and augmentation leading to a transformation of Homo sapiens into Homo digitalis
– the uncertain future of our species. Digital technologies and their convergence will certainly enhance and
augment human physical and cognitive capabilities. Human performance has improved enormously over the
last century, with unprecedented achievements in health, sports and knowledge. The human life span, which
has doubled over the last century, could further increase, perhaps without limits, through digital enhancement
and augmentation. The use of artificial organs and limbs will undergo a quantum leap, as will completely new
enhancements such as exoskeletons and physical augmentation.
The major challenge will certainly be cognitive enhancements. The Internet and mobile applications already
provide important enhancements to our cognitive capabilities, and they constitute a kind of external memory
and knowledge depositories. The danger is, of course, a misuse and diffusion of alternative realities that in the
future may be fundamentally enhanced by virtual realities. The loss of privacy and control of one’s data and
personality are already a challenge, but they may pose a huge danger to democracies and free-thinking people in
the future should new bionic and human-enhancement systems fall into the wrong hands or undergo evolution
beyond human control. The loss of control and the impossibility of social steering might be the biggest dangers
of the Digital Anthropocene.
Nevertheless, digitalization offers incredible possibilities for freeing humanity from physical toil and for
augmenting and enhancing cognitive and physical capabilities. The old science fiction vision of machines making
machines is a reality today, but machines controlling humans rather than enhancing and augmenting them is
a real danger. The future is open, but the direction of change is unknown. Steering change and possibilities
toward the Sustainable Anthropocene for all must, therefore, become the highest priority.
7. Understanding and overcoming the “retarding moments” (WBGU 2019) of innovation breakthrough.
Historically, large-scale, fundamental, and disruptive technological innovations often resulted in societal and
economic turbulence, or even crises, backlashes, or conflicts, before societies learned to mobilize their welfare
potential (TWI2050, 2018).
Again, the printing press (between 1452 and 1456, the 42-line Gutenberg Bible was published, marking the
invention of the press) was obviously a crucial precondition for the Age of Enlightenment, the emergence of

13
 Key Considerations

science, and industrialization; however, initially the large-scale diffusion of printed leaflets was directed to
sow hatred, paving the way for the disastrous Thirty Years’ War in Europe. Industrialization had the potential
to create unknown wealth for many people. But it initially resulted in large-scale exploitation, social conflicts,
and class struggles, before (albeit after two world wars) industrial and market mechanisms were embedded
in democratic institutional structures and welfare state mechanisms, helping to mobilize the welfare potential
of industrialization for many people and nations (primarily in Western countries). However, the democratic
welfare state itself, although solving the social and power challenges of the past, created new, unforeseen crises.
The great industrial acceleration produced the Era of the Anthropocene, with the transcendence of planetary
boundaries leading to tipping points in the Earth’s ecological system.
The challenge in the present era of digitalization is to resolve the immense sustainability problems of the Digital
Anthropocene, while at the same time understanding the newly emerging challenges of artificial intelligence,
automated decision-making processes, and virtual spaces. How far can humanity go with human enhancement
and augmentation? How can we interact productively, constructively, and “humanly” with artificial intelligence?
How can we keep democratic control over the waves of technological change that are still poorly understood?
How can we protect citizen rights, human rights, and individual rights in an age of big data analysis and global
communication networks? Where digital advances meet authoritarian governments or powerful business
actors, democracy and civil rights are at stake. The scale of these challenges is large: How can we learn to
overcome the historical law of “retarding moments” of radical and disruptive technological innovations, without
experiencing deep crises in the first place?
8. Building responsible knowledge societies capable of taking action toward sustainability in the Digital
Age. There is no silver bullet to shape and govern the Digital Revolution toward sustainability, because the
future is inherently indeterminate. The challenge is to build resilient, adaptive, creative, knowledgeable, and
inclusive “Responsibility Societies” (WBGU, 2019). We will be able to exploit the opportunities of digitalization,
virtual realities, and artificial intelligence, and to curb their potential risks and link the digital and the
sustainability transformations, only if the digital and sustainability research communities converge. However,
such a convergence is still a long way off. Connecting the greatest innovative dynamics in human history with
the major transformation toward sustainability, in order to stabilize the planet and enable a good life for 9–10
billion people in the 21st century, will require tremendous efforts, swift actions, institutional changes, huge
investments, patience, and a clear normative framework.
The following cornerstones create an interdependent system architecture that will help to manage the
harmonization of the digital and the sustainability transformations:
1. Education: People need to be enabled to understand and shape the emerging digital shifts.
2. Science: New knowledge networks must create transformative knowledge to integrate digital and
sustainability-oriented transformations, avoid the digital tipping points, and build normative frameworks
for the epoch of convergence between human and machine intelligence.
3. Modernizing states: Public institutions are not at all prepared to comprehend and govern digital dynamics.
Large-scale modernization and educational programs are necessary in this regard.
4. Experimental spaces: Learning-by-doing and using is the main principle of technology and institutional
diffusion, especially during the early innovation phases. Creative spaces need to be established to nurture
fast learning and should include the possibility for “crazy ideas and start-ups” to gain ground.
5. Global governance: The Digital Revolution has global impacts on how alliances are built. Modernizing the
UN, for example, will be shaped by the Digital Age.
6. “New Humanism” (WBGU, 2019): The 2030 Agenda can be seen as the new “social contract” for the world,
transforming our values and visions of the future beyond 2030 and toward sustainability for all. This implies
new normative goals for the future of the people and the planet, new development models detached from
materialism and negative externalities for the environment and the Earth’s system, and new normative
guardrails for all.
9. The need for urgency from a 2030 Agenda perspective- only 10 years to 2030. There are only 10 years to go
to mobilize and leverage the digital opportunities to build sustainable societies. Trend reversal is urgent as the
world is at a crossroads. We have only 10 years to learn how to manage and positively use the societal impacts of
digitalization and artificial intelligence, to merge virtual and physical spaces and realities, and to avoid further
erosion of social cohesion. If we do not manage to get the two fundamentals right – that is, digitalized green
economies, and stable, equitable, open digitalized societies – the world will run into a serious impasse instead
of developing further sustainability transformations. And if that happens, the window of transformation toward

14
 Key Considerations

a Sustainable Anthropocene would be closed. Time is a very precious and scarce resource that must be used
wisely.
Clearly there are many societal challenges associated with increasing digitalization, which, if not managed
carefully and thoughtfully, have the potential for a significant counter-revolution. However, it is equally clear that
advances in technology offer huge societal benefits, as long as they are explicitly directed toward a sustainable
future. The potential for huge progress in education, health, equity, and prosperity, while reducing environmental
degradation, is undeniable (as explored in the examples throughout this report). Moreover, there will be societal
impacts brought about by significant changes to how and where we live and work, how we spend our increased
leisure time, and how we interact with other members of our immediate, local, and broader communities. Ensuring
that these impacts are positive is imperative.
Societies, and their governments, are at a critical crossroad. We face decisions about the type of future we want –
assuming, of course, that the current trends can be managed or regulated at all, with the present pace of innovation
creating new tools and techniques well ahead of the creation of guiding norms and policy, in fact ahead of any
public awareness about them. In the absence of a thoroughly examined, deliberate path for the introduction of
new technologies, the consequences to the public good and to natural resources are often confronted only after the
fact. Frequently, these consequences are confronted only when the damage is large enough and cannot be ignored,
and when the public feels deceived. However, the Digital Revolution can help provide the tools to inform the public
about the positive attributes of new technologies and to engage their support up front. While public support is
essential for the realization of the full potential of new technologies, public concerns will place constraints on the
realization of their full commercial and financial potential.

15
1. Six Fundamental Transformations for a Sustainable Future for All

1
Six Fundamental Transformations
for a Sustainable Future for All
The transformations to a sustainable future for all will require unprecedented governance efforts, and
imply deep structural changes, profound reforms of each implies deep societal, cultural, and normative
institutions, shifting mental maps and norms, changing dynamics of change.
patterns of human behavior, widespread awareness
The Six Transformations are not intended to be
raising and mobilization, the adoption of a complex
a new clustering of the 17 SDGs nor to be a “reduced
adaptive systems approach to sustainability issues,
form” of the SDGs and their 169 targets. Rather, they
and unprecedented problem solving. As transformative
are intended to describe systemic and integrative
change is needed, transformative governance is
changes that are related to all SDGs, as illustrated in
required as well.
Figure 2. Rather than being merely interlinked and
In view of the complexity and breadth of the changes interdependent with all the SDGs, they are arguably
occurring, and those to be expected, it is essential that at the center of the great transformation toward
we begin an effort to move beyond the sectorial and sustainability and fundamental in “turning the tide” of
fragmented approach adopted by much sustainability change.
research thus far. Rather than only investigate the
separate roles of water, or food, or energy, or even Why these Six Fundamental
the water-food-energy nexus, we should design an Transformations?
approach that aims at truly integrating all possible
affected domains, focuses on trade-offs and co- Principally, the Six Transformations provide a people-
benefits, and generally takes a holistic perspective that centered perspective: their objective is to build local,
is at the core of the 2030 Agenda. Another synergetic national, and global societies and economies that secure
approach of the 2030 Agenda strives to harness wealth creation, poverty reduction, fair distribution,
science, technology, and innovation to accelerate and inclusiveness necessary for human prosperity in
progress. The Digital Revolution is at the center of the any society and any region of the world. While these
perspectives of science, technology, and innovation. objectives may be pursued differently in different
The holistic approach implies that the full complexity contexts, there are some domains of action which
of the dynamics involved in each domain of social, appear to be universal. These domains include: (i)
social-environmental, and social-environmental- institutions that enable and improve human capacities
technological interaction – from the basic values and and capabilities by ensuring access to education and
world view of individual societies and cultures, to their health care, fair labor markets, the universal rule
ways of interacting, their institutions, their governance, of law, and the means to manage aging societies; (ii)
and so forth – will be given space to be played out, and the essential and strategic infrastructure of any local,
that there will be room for a wide range of aspects national, or global economy and society, such as energy,
about the characteristics of both present and future food systems, cities, settlements, and mobility systems;
societies to be considered. (iii) production and consumption systems where deep
transformations need to take place to create wealth
To move in that direction (at least for the moment, as and ensure a good work-life balance; and (iv) science,
we are still not able to deal with the full complexity of the technology, and innovation that are essential for further
total systems involved), the authors of TWI2050 (2018) progress toward achieving the SDGs (Box 2).
have focused on Six Fundamental Transformations
that capture much of the global, regional, and local The Six Transformations nicely capture these
dynamics. They encompass the major drivers of future domains of action that allow the achievement of human
changes, yet they also reduce the complexity of the 17 wellbeing in all its dimensions. There are, however,
SDGs. The Six Fundamental Transformations are: (i) further arguments for the selection of precisely these
Human Capacity & Demography; (ii) Consumption & Six Transformations. All of them are associated with
Production; (iii) Decarbonization & Energy; (iv) Food, powerful dynamics that can result in very different
Biosphere & Water; (v) Smart Cities; and (vi) the Digital development outcomes for humanity – both positive
Revolution. and negative. At the same time, all these processes
take place in systems whose evolution depends on
Arguably, the Six Fundamental Transformations are governance, values, policy tools, and so on; that is,
necessary to achieve the SDGs by 2030, and to achieve these processes can be managed, and the outcomes
sustainability by 2050 and beyond. Each transformation

17
1 Six Fundamental Transformations

depend on choices made by humans. Moreover, as the SDGs, they also provide an entry point for achieving all
Six Transformations interact essentially with all the the SDGs in a manageable way.

Box 2. Key Messages of the Six Transformations1

Substantial advances in human capacity are needed through further improvements in education and
health care. Education and health are instrumental for enabling people to live self-determined lives, find
decent work, and generate income to sustain themselves, but also to undertake climate change mitigation
and deal with environmental problems. The ambitions go hand-in-hand with the goals to end poverty in all its
forms and to reduce global inequality.
Responsible consumption and production cut across several of the other transformations, allowing
us to do more with less. Evidence shows that it is possible to reduce consumption of resources considerably
by taking a more service and circular economy-oriented approach with respect to mobility, housing, food
systems, and other sectors of our economies. Reductions in demand leverage the potential of large savings at
different stages of the supply chain.
It is possible to decarbonize the energy system while providing clean and affordable energy for
all. Pathway analysis shows that energy efficiency, increasing the share of renewable energy, electrification,
and carbon capture and storage all play a key role in fully decarbonizing the energy system by 2050, while
providing access to modern energy for all. Achieving the Paris Agreement is still possible but only if combined
with a focus on a broader set of SDGs.
Achieving access to nutritional food and clean water for all while protecting the biosphere and the
oceans requires more efficient and sustainable food systems. It is possible to meet the needs of a growing
world population while at the same time limiting the food system’s environmental impacts by combinations
of increasing agricultural productivity, reduction of waste and losses, and moves toward a less meat-intensive
diet. The highest priority is to provide healthy and affordable food for all and thereby to eradicate hunger.
Heathy diets and lifestyles are also essential for reducing global obesity levels.
Transforming our cities will benefit most of the world’s population. Pathways show that by 2050
around two thirds of the human population will live in urban areas. Sustainable cities are characterized
by high connectivity and “smart” infrastructure, enabling high-quality services with a low environmental
footprint. Transforming slums into decent housing is feasible, and in a way that has low energy and material
requirements. Good city design, sustainable lifestyles, empowered local actors, and participatory approaches
that avoid one-size-fits-all solutions are needed to achieve this transformation to sustainable cities.
Science, technology and innovations are a powerful driver, but the direction of change needs
to support sustainable development. The Digital Revolution symbolizes the convergence of innovative
technologies, many of which currently make ambiguous contributions to sustainable development,
simultaneously supporting and threatening the ability to achieve the SDGs. There is an urgent need to bring
the sustainability and the digital and technology communities together to align the direction of change with the
2030 Agenda and a sustainable future beyond. It is also necessary to implement forward-looking roadmaps and
governance structures that allow the mitigation of potential trade-offs of the revolution in science, technology,
and innovation, particularly in relation to this revolution’s impact on work, social cohesion, and human dignity.

1 Full descriptions of the Six Fundamental Transformations can be found in TWI2050 (2018), www.twi2050.org.

18
2. Report Outline

2
Report Outline
The focus of this report is on the sixth transformation: bring to sustainable development. It also highlights
the Digital Revolution. Although the Digital Revolution the potential negative impacts and challenges going
is arguably the single greatest enabler of sustainable forward, particularly for those impacted by the “digital
development, it has the potential also to create many divide”, most notably the poor in the developing world.
negative externalities, such as the further transgression Moreover, it outlines the necessary preconditions for a
of planetary boundaries. Progress on the SDGs will successful digital transformation; these preconditions
be facilitated if we can build and implement detailed include prosperity, social inclusion, environmental
roadmaps for science, technology, and innovation, at sustainability, and good governance. Importantly, this
levels that range from the local to the global (Colglazier, report sets out some of the dramatic social implications
2018). Science, technology, and innovation are forceful associated with an increasingly digital future. It
drivers of changes connected to all the SDGs, especially covers a topic that has hitherto not been sufficiently
at this point in history. The Digital Revolution has an dealt with in debates about sustainability and the
ongoing and twofold major impact: it provides entirely Digital Revolution. In particular, the consideration of
new capacities, thus serving as a major force in shaping governance has yet to be fully addressed. The policies,
both the systemic context and future solutions; at institutions, and governance arrangements necessary
the same time, it has the potential for strong societal for achieving sustainable development have yet to be
disruption if not handled carefully and cautiously. created and promoted.
This report does not simply point out all the
positive potential benefits that digitalization can
3. The Digital Revolution

3
The Digital Revolution
The Digital Revolution can facilitate sustainable Yet there are also clear dangers and downsides
development through ongoing advances in areas such to the Digital Revolution, including the loss of jobs,
as artificial intelligence, connectivity (the Internet inequality (Figure 4), and the further shift of income
of Things), digitization of information, additive from labor to capital. With automation and advances
manufacturing (such as 3D printing), virtual or in artificial intelligence and robotics, many more
augmented reality, machine learning, blockchain, workers, even those who are highly skilled, may find
robotics, quantum computing, and synthetic biology. their jobs and earnings under threat. While new jobs
As in the Industrial Revolution, where explosive might replace old ones, the new jobs may come with
development was initiated through the convergence of lower real earnings and worse working conditions.
steel, steam and railways, coal, and new manufacturing The fears about increasing inequalities have given rise
processes for textiles and other goods, so the to renewed interest in a guaranteed minimum income.
convergence of these new digital technologies could
The concern about growing inequalities reflects
be even more profound. The Industrial Revolution
the current dominance of a handful of technology
resulted in great winners and losers; the same could be
companies, such as the “big five” (Amazon, Apple,
the case for the Digital Revolution.
Facebook, Google, and Microsoft) or their Chinese
Technological change plays a key role in long-term counterparts (e.g., Alibaba and SinaWeibo). The same
social transformations. With the advent of “knowledge applies to specific sectors, such as agriculture and food
societies”, many current technological transitions favor systems, which are currently dominated by a few giant
non-material and shared benefits that support human companies. This leads to concerns about if (and how)
wellbeing. new technologies could be appropriated by different
actors, or about whether the Digital Revolution will
The Digital Revolution is already reshaping work,
reinforce the concentration of resources, wealth,
leisure, behavior, education, and governance. In
and power. For instance, in agricultural production,
general, these contributions can have positive impacts
land concentration in the hands of large industrial
on labor, energy, resources, and carbon productivity,
agribusiness companies can be detrimental to small
and they can lower production costs, expand access to
farmers.
services, and dematerialize production.

19
3 The Digital Revolution

Figure 4. Penetration rates of novel information and communication technologies (ICT), such as mobiles and the
Internet, have shown fast growth rates. They now reach more people than previous technologies such as fixed-
landline phones. Inequalities persist: World averages are shown as solid lines, and the averages of least developed
countries (LDC) are given as dashed lines, showing that inequalities persist. Source: Data from ITU (2018).

There are several other perceived threats from the firms, stock markets), and in our societies (in courts,
Digital Revolution. Digital identities can be stolen, or parliaments, health-care organizations, and security
artificial identities can be created. Digital information organizations such as the police and military). All of
can be leaked, especially with the diffusion of 3D printing these have the potential to complement, substitute, and
where complete information about manufacturing challenge human-driven decision-making processes.
is stored digitally and could be used to circumvent We need to learn to manage and control the next
export and import barriers by manufacturing locally. generations of artificial intelligence, machine learning,
Governments and private businesses can invade privacy and (semi-)autonomous technical systems, and to align
and monitor individuals against their will or without them with our normative settings. Moreover, the digital
their knowledge. A few digital portals may use their transformation will redefine our concept of ourselves
advantages in amassing big data to gain a dominant as humans. In the Anthropocene, humans became the
monopoly position in their respective markets (e.g., main drivers of Earth-system changes. In the Digital
e-commerce, digital advertising, social media, cloud Anthropocene, humans will also start to transform
services). Cyberattacks or cyberwarfare can interrupt themselves, enhancing cognitive and brain capacities.
or degrade private and public service delivery. Social Humanity is moving toward new civilizational
media can be manipulated, undermining democratic thresholds. Super-intelligent machines might even
processes. The personal use of online technologies develop “lives of their own”, with the capacity to
can be addictive and cause the onset of depressive enhance humans, but also to harm them.
disorders. Special dangers relate to advanced
To capture the benefits of the Digital Revolution
weaponry. The most fundamental question is whether
while avoiding the many potential downsides, the
the Digital Revolution, as a self-evolving evolutionary
digital transformation requires a comprehensive set
process that has generated huge global monopolies, is
of regulatory and normative frameworks, physical
even amenable to “social steering”.
infrastructure, and digital systems. An essential priority
The Digital Revolution will have even deeper impacts should be to develop roadmaps for science, technology,
on our societies, creating new sustainability-related and innovation to better understand the potential
concerns. General purpose artificial intelligence and benefits and dangers of digitalization (Colglazier,
other digital technologies will be increasingly used in 2018). The principles of a digital transformation that
decision-making processes embedded in devices (like will advance sustainable development have yet to be
self-driving cars), in our economies (in banks, trading

20
 The Digital Revolution 3

deeply explored, but some of the likely priorities and transformation of society toward a sustainable future
example measures are shown in Table 1. can be identified (Figure 5). While technological
change will always occur, a high level of uncertainty
Research is needed to further the understanding of
will remain about the direction it will take and about
technology systems. By studying the patterns, drivers,
which parts of technological innovation packages will
constraints, and impacts of technological change,
succeed, for what purposes, and in whose interests.
viable options and policies that will accelerate the

Table 1. Principles for digital transformation

Principles for digital Example measures

transformation
Enabling digital infrastructure, • Universal access to high-quality, low-cost mobile broadband
further expansion, and innovations
Online services • Online governance to support public services and participation
• Online finance and payments to facilitate trade and business services
• Regulatory security for online identity and privacy
• Online national systems (or “platforms”) for health care and education
Digital systems to increase efficiency • Smart grids and Internet of Things for sustainable cities
of resource use
Analytical packages for exploration • Income redistribution to address income inequalities arising from digital
and monitoring scale-up
• Tax and regulatory systems to avoid monopolization of Internet services
• Democratic oversight of cutting-edge technologies (biotech, nanotech,
artificial intelligence, big data, autonomous systems)
• Universal access to high-quality, low-cost mobile broadband education
to avoid new digital divides and to develop capacities for sustainable
digitalization
• Aligning the emerging digital technologies and infrastructures with human
norms and the paradigm of sustainable development

Figure 5. Future diffusion of exemplary and enabling digital infrastructures and technologies. By 2030, most of
these networks, including the average of all, will exceed 50% diffusion, or the inflection point, meaning that the
increase until then would be exponential. This illustrates the possibility of a very vigorous growth of digitalization
in the world along with the emergence of new activities and behaviors. The opportunities and potential dangers
are high and related to all SDGs. Source: Saniee et al. (2017).

21
 4. Preconditions for a Sustainable Digital Revolution

4
Preconditions for a Sustainable
Digital Revolution
The SDGs define sustainable development as a world concerning the key issues of our times. This has created
in which all nations enjoy economic prosperity, a new “social contract” for the world.
achieve social inclusion, and ensure environmental
The universality of the SDGs is unique, not only in
sustainability. These economic, social, and
establishing a moral standard for social inclusion and
environmental goals are sometimes called the “triple
the right to decent lives for all, but also in underscoring
bottom line” (Elkington, 1994). The 2030 Agenda
the obligation of all nations to collaborate to meet
emphasizes that human, economic, social, and
global environmental targets, such as those of the Paris
environmental development must be underpinned
Agreement on limiting climate change. Because human
by good governance and global cooperation, often
activity has most probably already transgressed several
called the fourth pillar of sustainable development
indicators of a planetary safe space, all countries in the
(Figure 6). Each of the 17 SDGs contributes to these
world must seriously face the need to bear their fair
four dimensions of prosperity, social inclusion,
share of responsibility to achieve the globally agreed
environmental sustainability, and inclusive governance.
SDG targets.
These SDGs are “universal”, in the sense that they
For the Digital Revolution to play a positive role
apply to all nations and to all people within those
in deliberately and constructively supporting the
nations. They are also “holistic”, in that all 17 SDGs must
sustainable development agenda, it, too, must operate
be achieved in unison. In the oft-repeated language of
within the preconditions and aims of prosperity, social
the 2030 Agenda, no one (and no nation, region, or
inclusion, environmental sustainability, and inclusive
SDG) should be left behind. The 17 SDGs are meant to
governance.
serve the task of providing a general and holistic frame
for globally agreed goals and management directions

Figure 6. The SDGs represent a triple bottom line that can be illustrated as interconnected circles of people, planet,
and prosperity. Governance is crucial to governing the process. Source: Adapted from Stone (2017).

23
4 Preconditions for Sustainability

4.1 Prosperity condition. Governments struggle to address these

issues as the linear one-way use without recycling
The Digital Revolution clearly has the potential to has been their modus operandi for the past 200 years.
drive global economic growth and improve human Simple pieces of legislation such as the “right to repair”,
wellbeing, which, if shared equitably across the globe, which is designed to overturn companies’ monopoly
could lead to increased prosperity for all. However, the on repair and to tackle planned obsolescence, seem
major risk to such an outcome is the dramatic impact almost impossible to enact, even in the most liberal
of digitalization on the nature and future of work. democracies. Fortunately, some major technology
Although, historically, technology has created more companies are becoming increasingly aware of
jobs than it has displaced (Stewart et al., 2015) and is the potential problems. For example, Fairphone,1
responsible for enormous productivity growth, there a Dutch social enterprise that developed the first
is no guarantee that this trend will continue in the modular phone to promote a more circular economy,
future. Even if it does, it is likely that some will be left aims to develop smartphones that are designed and
behind, especially those in low-skilled employment. produced with minimal environmental impact. A more
Understanding what to do about those left behind modest approach is by Apple, which has developed a
by economic progress is becoming a pressing matter disassembly robot for mobile phones (Figure 7).
for policymakers. In the USA, the “last-mile” jobs are
already occupied disproportionally by workers without Moving to a circular economy may go some way to
a college education, and it seems that there is no land alleviate the loss of jobs brought about by increasing
of opportunity without a high level of education (Free digitalization, as new jobs are created in growing “green
exchange, 2019). There is no clear immediate solution, industries” (Jensen-Cormier et al., 2018), particularly
and many countries are currently grappling with this in the developing world (OECD, 2012).
problem, particularly in the developing world, which is
likely to be most impacted. It will require a systems-
wide holistic approach that takes into consideration 1 https://www.fairphone.com/en/
developments across the Six Transformations for
sustainable development with a special focus on
education and human capacity.
Perhaps equally important is that it is increasingly
clear that continued uneven and persistent economic
growth is unsustainable in the long term, both
environmentally and socially. We need to move from a
planned obsolescence economic model of “take, make
and dispose”, in which most of the world’s resources
are wasted and end up in landfill, to a circular economy
based on the closed-loop principles of recovery, reuse,
repair, and remanufacture, thereby increasing resource
productivity.
Unfortunately, to date, most digital technologies
seem to boost economic processes and do not yet have
a sufficient emphasis on reuse of products and material
(i.e., the circular economy). Part of the problem lies in
the rapid pace of technological development. Increasing
computing power, at cheaper cost, has enabled
manufacturers to cram ever more features into devices
while maintaining prices and profitability. Coupled
with enormous marketing campaigns, the “upgrade
era” has materialized to the point where consumers
are purchasing new “replacement” products on ever
shortening timescales, while old ones are discarded
with a very limited degree of recycling. Although some
of the products being replaced may be truly obsolete,
many offer the same functionality as the new version. It
is estimated that in the UK four times as many phones
languish unused as are currently in use (Benton et Figure 7. Apple has a new iPhone-destroying robot
al., 2015), and in Germany over 30% of household called Daisy that can disassemble 200 phones in an
appliances disposed of in 2012 were still in working hour. Source: Courtesy of Apple Inc.

24
 Preconditions for Sustainability 4

4.2 Social Inclusion – Overcoming the • Disparities between technology providers and
users (nations, communities, companies, citizens).
Digital Divide
Digitalization brings the promise of social, political,
Digital technologies have spread rapidly in much
and financial inclusion – but this promise can only
of the world. They can be a powerful influence in
materialize if the technologies reach those who are
helping to overcome social inequalities, but they are
currently left behind. The recently published book,
also characterized by inequalities themselves. Large
Weapons of Math Destruction (O’Neil, 2016), warns of
disparities in access to, usage of, and skills relevant for
the dangers of algorithms and how they essentially
digital technologies exist, which are summarized as the
contribute to leaving people behind. Patterns of
“digital divide”. Even more importantly, gaps also exist
inequalities (in relation to, for example, gender,
in the broader development benefits from using digital
geography, race, disability, age, and class) will continue
technologies. Digital technologies have often boosted
to be challenges in the digital era unless they are
growth, expanded opportunities, and improved service
actively addressed. Future and further digitalization
delivery, yet their aggregate impact has fallen short of
may, if not managed well, exacerbate already present
being inclusive and is thus unevenly distributed.
divides; however, if well managed, it can connect people
The digital divide relates to a range of deep and societies and facilitate inclusion without borders.
inequalities, often relevant at different scales both
On a global level, digital divides are predominantly
within countries (between social groups, age groups,
linked to access. Many of the access divides relate to the
genders, urban and rural areas) and across countries.
physical reality: around half of the world’s population
Inequalities pertain to:
still lack Internet access (Figure 8) and a billion do
• Access to, and use of, digital technologies not even have access to electricity, a huge barrier to
(including relevant skill sets, education, quality, and digitalization. This does not account for discrepancies
affordability of technologies or services); in reliability, affordability, and the quality/quantity of
• Impacts on the economy through productivity gains, service use. However, digital technologies, such as the
changes in industries, job losses, etc. (related to Internet or smart mobile phones, diffuse more rapidly
dividends from digital technologies and services); than some basic technologies, such as improved
• Concentration of knowledge, power, and revenue sanitation or electricity (Figure 9). Leapfrogging in
regarding the development and ownership of developing countries has been mentioned many times,
hardware, software, and data;

Figure 8. The Internet remains unavailable, inaccessible, and unaffordable to most of the world’s population.
Note: High-speed Internet (broadband) includes the total number of fixed-line broadband subscriptions (such
as DSL, cable modems, fiber optics), and the total number of 4G/LTE mobile subscriptions, minus a correcting
factor to allow for those who have both types of access. 4G = fourth generation; DSL = digital subscriber line; ICT
= information and communication technology; LTE = long-term evolution. Source: World Bank (2016), CC BY 3.0.

25
4 Preconditions for Sustainability

Figure 9. Digital technologies are spreading rapidly in developing countries. Technology diffusion comparison:
Diffusion of cell phones vs. toilets for OECD countries (solid) and non-OECD countries (dashed). Data source:
World Bank WDI, CC BY. Source: Model fit and graphic courtesy of Arnulf Grubler, IIASA.

as fixed-line telephony never reached as many homes Internet access can enable information access and
as mobile phones do today. provide new avenues and opportunities for doing
things differently. A much-used example of how
Digitalization can also bridge divides. A recent study
digitalization can enable financial inclusion is the
by the World Bank (2016) has shown that Internet
Kenyan mobile phone-based money transfer system
access is more evenly spread than income (Figure 10),
M-Pesa.2 Because M-Pesa works on older cell phones,
while economic disparities remain large and pervasive,
individuals can easily transfer money without having
even across generations (Figure 11).
to go to the bank or have Internet access. Similarly,
Internet access can remove the barrier of geographic there are several services in South Africa (e.g., eWallet3)
access, opening up access to information sources in which allow people without bank accounts access to
faraway places. However, access to these resources finances whether or not they have Internet access.
may still be prevented by the lack of electricity Digital IDs provide identification and related services
access, Internet costs, journal paywalls, language, and rights to people previously excluded; an example
and other conditions unrelated to the availability of is the Aadhaar4 program in India.
information itself. Open source encyclopedias such as
Internet access can also be beneficial for spreading
Wikipedia and free courses further ensure the spread
norms and values in line with the notions of human
of information in the digitalized world. If the current
rights, including that everyone should have their
trends of electricity and Internet access continue, the
basic needs met and the right to human development
proportion of people with access to the Internet will
in line with the capabilities framework (Nussbaum
continue to grow over the next 10 to 15 years to reach
& Sen, 1993). Norms and values can be spread via
almost full coverage around 2030.
the Internet, social media, and television. These can
Another aspect of digitalization and Internet access provide information about the use of, and access to,
is the spread of the use of social media and the changes family planning utilities, and they can facilitate sexual
in social interactions. Social media can function as and reproductive health and rights. New access to
enablers for social movements to take root. There are, media can also challenge traditional gender norms.
however, downsides of this as social media may drive
There may, however, be conflicts between modern
people to uniformity and limit a healthy diversity
and traditionally held views of society. Such conflicts
of perspectives reaching everyone, creating “echo
may harm social inclusion. There is a risk of cultural
chambers” in which people only hear information
globalization, often referred to as westernization
agreeable to their standpoints. The development of
or Americanization, whereby Western cultures and
echo chambers may harm a well-informed public
cultural expressions dominate and kill diversity
debate. Social media usage may also reinforce the
and local traditions. This may, for example, lead to
increase of mental disorders. Is has been shown
that limiting social media platform usage decreases
2 https://www.mpesa.in/portal/
loneliness and depression (Hunt et al., 2018).
3 https://www.fnb.co.za/send-money/eWallet.html
4 https://uidai.gov.in/

26
 Preconditions for Sustainability 4

Figure 10. The Internet (panel b) is more evenly spread than income (panel a). Note: Countries’ sizes are rescaled
in proportion to national income and Internet population. The darker the shade, the higher the national income
(panel a; GDP at market exchange rates) and the higher the Internet population (panel b). Source: World Bank
(2016), CC BY 3.0.

unhealthy food preferences that are not appropriate to nations benefit from digital technologies, policies need
the local conditions, or to destructive consumerism. to be targeted in areas strongly related to education.
Policymakers should focus their efforts on ensuring
Achieving a basic level of literacy and numeracy
access for all to hardware and software, which will
universally was an objective of the Millennium
require investment in infrastructure and open source
Development Goals (MDGs). The SDGs move to
applications.
broader goals in educational attainment, skills, and
equal opportunities. The Digital Revolution within For digital technologies to benefit everyone
contemporary and future society means that (evolving) everywhere, it is necessary to close the remaining
digital literacy and access to digital technologies are digital divide, especially in Internet access. But greater
essential. As digital technologies become ever more digital adoption and access will not be enough to
embedded in everyday life – and increasingly taken generate digital dividends. To get the most out of the
for granted by those with relevant technologies, skills Digital Revolution, countries also need to work on the
and understanding – so the exclusion of the digitally “analog complements”. This will involve strengthening
illiterate deepens. Such exclusion is a major policy regulations and policies so that there is competition
concern in all countries. among businesses, adapting workers’ skills to the
demands of the new economy, and ensuring that
The digital divide reveals a tendency for the most
institutions are accountable. Examples include access
privileged to enhance their advantage and leave others
to and quality of educational opportunities, investment
behind. To ensure that individuals, communities, and
in the new roles and skill sets of teachers, promotion of

27
4 Preconditions for Sustainability

Figure 11. Great Gatsby Curve. Source: Corak (2013).

life-long learning, use of digital technologies to enhance resources, particularly of relatively rare resources
citizenship and support, and the encouragement required in the manufacture of these devices. In
and direction of research and development of digital addition, digital devices require increases ofor their
technologies. manufacture and operation, and they contribute to the
growing problem of e-waste.
4.3 Environmentally Oriented Mobile device penetration has gone from zero to
Sustainability over seven billion5 (ITU, 2018) in less than 30 years,
The relationship between technology and with an additional 250 million other connected
environmental sustainability has a checkered history. devices (e.g., cars, appliances). This enormous increase
Some argue that the rapid, essentially unchecked, in consumerism places additional stresses on the
adoption of technology over the last 200 years has environment. A recent report (The Shift Project, 2018)
led to unprecedented environmental degradation, has estimated that the percentage share of global
unsustainable resource extraction, increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from digital
pollution, climate change, and loss of biodiversity and technologies will rise from 2.5% in 2013 to 4% in 2020
accompanying ecosystem services, to the point where and 8% in 2025, primarily due to increases in energy
we are rapidly reducing the ability of Earth systems to consumption over this period. However, it has been
cope – that is, we are nearing the planetary boundaries. shown that if new, highly efficient technologies can be
The Anthropocene is typified by rapid technological used to substitute existing low-efficiency technologies,
advancement. then the carbon and energy and cost savings could be
significant (Grubler et al., 2018).
At the same time, advances in technology and
digitalization have the potential (as explored in detail There is clearly a trade-off between increasing
below) to drive society toward a sustainable future, digitalization and environmental sustainability that
but only if this can be done sustainably and within needs to be carefully managed. Unfortunately, the
planetary boundaries. For example, electric vehicles speed of the Digital Revolution is such that it seems
offer enormous potential to improve mobility, reduce that regulators cannot keep pace. Policies are created
harmful emissions and pollution, and mitigate climate and frequently enacted after the fact rather than before.
change, but not if the electricity required to power To ensure sustainable management of digitalization,
them comes from unsustainable power generation,
such as coal. The almost universal and rapid uptake
of digital devices, together with their relatively short 5 In 2018, there were 107 mobile phone subscriptions
half-lives, risks accelerating the depletion of the Earth’s per 100 inhabitants worldwide, showing the inequality of
distribution (ITU, 2018).

28
 Preconditions for Sustainability 4

efforts should be made to design and implement new time making best use of digital tools to do so. Table 2
approaches in the governance sphere. summarizes the necessary governance reforms for the
transformation to sustainability. The reforms remain
These opposite tendencies of technological change
the same as those in TWI2050 (2018), in particular
present a paradox: technology is a source of human
the call for (i) flexible but stable institutions, and (ii)
suffering and environmental damage, yet it is also
multilateral institutions that are capable of governing
a potential solution to the challenge of achieving
transnational dynamics. As we will see below, it will
sustainability for all. This is another predicament of
be crucial to govern peaceful and human relationships
the Digital Anthropocene.
between states, firms, and people.
4.4 Inclusive Good Governance and Digitalization and new technologies present
Peace significant opportunities for governments,
communities, and the private sector to come together
Peace and good, inclusive governance are necessary to achieve the SDGs. Policymakers must, however,
preconditions for sustainable human development remember that managing collective goods is at root
(TWI2050, 2018, chapter 5). However, the digital a political, rather than a technological, task. This is
transformation shapes governance systems around the crucial for getting the best out of digitalization. The
world and impacts peace. Answers to the question of risks of bringing digital technologies into contested
how political actors can shape digitalization toward governance spaces are great. Technology is an amplifier
a “New Humanism” (WBGU, 2019) and peace are of human intent (Toyama, 2011). It tends to magnify
urgently needed. The digital transformation challenges existing inequalities and is not a solution to collective
the global and political orders as we know them. It also problems that are socio-political and political-
introduces new forms of warfare, such as cyberwars or economic at heart. However, there are many ways that
drone wars. Still, states and societies need flexible and data and technology can be used for good as long as
capable political institutions and systems that address inclusive governance and democratic participation
these political and security challenges while at the same are at the heart of digital endeavors. Technology has

Table 2. Governance reforms needed for the transformation to sustainability. Source: Adapted from TWI2050
(2018).

Problems to solve Reforms needed

Sustainability transformation as a Six normative innovations:
civilizational challenge 1. Earth-system responsibility
2. global commons perspective – transnational fairness and justice
3. anticipate environmental impacts of decisions for many generations to
come
4. learn to shape deep technological change, driven by artificial intelligence,
virtual realities, and automated technical systems, toward sustainability
5. create guardrails for “human enhancement”, protect people from digital
authoritarianism, build social contracts for a “New Humanism”
6. culture of global cooperation and norm diffusion through transnational
governance
Digital transformation as a Establish governance systems that regulate data control and access, and hold
civilizational challenge private and public actors accountable for the “New Humanism”
Flexible but stable institutions Network governance fostering interplay between formal institutions and
needed governance networks
Overcoming institutional, political, Building transformative alliances across sectors and public spheres (state,
and sectorial path dependencies market, and civil society) from local to global
Integrated policymaking across Polycentric, multiscalar governance and integrated management
borders and sectors, and SDGs
Deep transformations require broad Invest in drivers of motivational change:
public legitimacy 1. normative triggers: How can we accept that?
2. demonstrating success
3. attractive future narratives
Dysfunctional and weak Reinforce multilateral cooperation; strengthen autonomy of international
international organizations organizations

29
4 Preconditions for Sustainability

politics, reflecting our values back to us at the speed technological means, it is therefore important for
of computing. Bringing inclusive and democratic policymakers to understand the role of data in the
governance to the implementation of digital services valuation of modern technology firms. Data has inherent
to meet the Agenda 2030 goals can bring significant value (Akred & Samani, 2018), largely for advertising,
benefits to humanity. and firms like Google and Facebook have maximized
the ways that Internet-based technology collects
To begin to assess the role that technology can
user data. User data is so valuable that there are even
play in meeting the SDGs, it is crucial to bear in mind
arguments that there should be ways to make firms
that technology is not an ontological artefact that
pay users for using their data for revenue generation
influences global politics beyond the scope of human
(Zhu Scott, 2018). This has profound implications for
processes. In his seminal article “Do Artefacts Have
allowing private technology firms to intervene in public
Politics?”, Langdon Winner (1980) explained how the
processes. When a city collects data on its residents,
integration of new technologies into socio-political
the data collection is paid for with tax dollars, and
and political-economic systems is reflexive: the human
those tax dollars represent a fiscal contract between
systems of governance reflect the preferences of the
the residents and city government that the data will be
public, and thus the technologies that are selected to
used for public benefit. When Google collects residents’
support public service provision take on those political
data in a proposed smart city, they are responsive to
features. In some cases, technologies map onto a
shareholders, and that data must be used to maximize
community’s existing internal sociological structures,
private value – public benefits and efficiencies are not
while in other cases the integration of a new technology
guaranteed. This tension is happening in real time with
into a social or administrative system is dependent
Google’s Sidewalk Lab’s proposed Quayside smart city
on external intervention. In the 21st century, with
in Toronto, as a lack of transparency and data privacy
digitalization relying so heavily on privately owned
concerns have led to citizen pushback against the
systems and software, the nature of the organization
proposal (Canon, 2018; Kofman, 2018).
of the interface between governance, politics, and
technology will be crucial for creating systems that From a software perspective, the push for open
benefit both communities and technology providers. source is positive but must be balanced against the
Mutual benefits and maintenance of collective goods costs to human resources and quality control. Free
are far from guaranteed when involving private sector and open source software (FOSS) has advantages over
actors in critical social processes, and the use of open proprietary packages on the acquisition side: it is
source systems is not a silver bullet for solving the free, and the code can be replicated publicly, so there
tensions between private profits and public benefit. is a level of transparency about what a government is
Inclusive, and to some extent democratic, governance using to manage its computing infrastructure. Linux
is necessary if digital technology is to serve as more Foundation (2017) outlines a set of challenges that
than a way for private enterprise to extract value from any organization, including governments, needs to
collective goods. The effective integration of digital be prepared for when making the switch to a FOSS
technologies into the solutions to massive collective platform. The biggest challenge is human resources:
challenges comes with its own complex governance Do organizations have the necessary software
and political challenges. development and quality control competences among
their staff to ensure that the software meets the needs
The distribution of collective goods, whether they
of the organization? In many cases this can mean having
are education (Box 3), energy, water, or infrastructure,
someone with the technical knowledge to evaluate
is an inherently political process. What we hope to
dozens of interrelated platforms, since a single FOSS
achieve with digitalization is increased efficiency in
implementation could require integrating software
the provision of these goods, and, as an outcome of this
from multiple sources.
efficiency, more equitable access to the best of these
collective goods. Digitalization comes with a wrinkle Technical knowledge feeds into the next challenge
that makes governance of the digital commons even governance organizations face with FOSS, which
more complex: Technology firms are also competing is quality control. Communities of users generally
for contracts and data, which are the lifeblood of maintain FOSS software; because of this, it is important
their revenue and profit streams. Thus, there is a to make sure that software meets an organization’s
tension between whether a technology firm is truly quality, security, and usability needs. Some FOSS
committed to supporting access to public goods, or if it packages are serious professional endeavors, while
is participating in the provision of public goods merely others are amateur efforts designed to meet someone’s
as a way to gain access to the data that underpins a specific needs. Finally, organizations will need to
firm’s value. fundamentally rethink contracting and acquisition of
information technology services because there is no
Before attempting to square the challenges
centralized customer service center for FOSS. It offers
associated with public resource distribution through
a number of opportunities for governments who want

30
 Preconditions for Sustainability 4

to implement flexible, distributed digital platforms for the political and budgeting changes that come with
meeting different components of the 2030 Agenda, effective FOSS implementation.
but these opportunities need to be balanced with

Box 3. Private versus Public Goods in the Education Sector

Education (see 6.1.2) is a good example of a sector where the tension between public good and private benefit
exists at multiple levels. Education aims to educate active citizens, to develop skills that can be used in the
economy, and to enable social mobility; the first two of these represent collective goods, whereas the third
is a private good (Labaree, 1997). Increasingly, the social mobility component of education has come to the
fore, making education a commodity that individuals seek as the collective goods of active citizenship and skill
building have taken a back seat (ibid.).
With this dynamic in the background, policymakers must be careful to understand how digitalization, far
from expanding the collective benefits of education, can magnify the commodification of education. Knowing
that self-betterment is a key driver of modern education, where do Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) fit
into the notion of education as a public good? Firms like Coursera,1 Udacity,2 and Khan Academy3 represent
some of the largest MOOC providers, operating in both for-profit and non-profit modes. While these firms
provide a wide range of courses, including many backed by world-class universities, there is a risk that they are
directly promoting the private good of self-betterment as the primary purpose of education. They do not offer
courses on local or national politics, nor do they aim to produce more engaged citizens. For example, the skills
courses offered by Udacity are entirely oriented toward the computing and software industries.
Digitalization of education sharpens the utopian vision of access to education resources for everyone, yet
this vision runs up against the economy of providing these services for “free”. Universities pay to have their
content hosted on Coursera’s platform, and students pay for access to courses on Udacity that prepare them
for a specific industry. The social aspects of learning risk being lost, and the firms that provide these platforms
do not have a responsibility to students in the way that a tax-funded school system does.

1 https://www.coursera.org/
2 https://eu.udacity.com/
3 https://www.khanacademy.org/

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5. Digitalization and Sustainable Development

5
Digitalization and Sustainable
Development
5.1 A Systems View of some of the dramatic changes expected as a result
of digitalization and its impact on the sustainable
The 2030 Agenda is holistic, with deep and complex development agenda. Hopefully, when reading these
interactions across the SDGs and their targets. The stories, the deep interconnections between the various
17 SDGs are integrated and complementary, and they topics will become clear, highlighting the need to
need to be addressed in unison. A focus on individual address the Digital Revolution in a systemic manner. For
or selected SDGs – whether during policy analysis or example, improvements in education brought about by
implementation – comes with the dangers of adverse digitalization will have significant impacts on people’s
side effects related to other SDGs or of missing out on health and wellbeing, how and where they live and
potential synergies and resulting multiple co-benefits. work, their prosperity, how much energy they consume,
A holistic systems perspective helps to prevent lock-ins their mobility, their consumption patterns, and even
and mobilizes opportunities to accelerate and leverage their attitudes, behaviors, and social interactions. All of
the transformation toward sustainable development. these changes affect how we produce our food, provide
The convergence of knowledge, technology, and services, build infrastructure, and so on. Therefore, it is
society must be considered to ensure solutions for neither possible nor desirable to think in terms of the
the SDGs (Roco & Bainbridge, 2013). It also enables impact on education alone – or, indeed, on any other
the exploration of multiple possible implementation single driver of change.
pathways. Similarly, the Six Transformations are not
intended to be viewed as separate domains but rather Although some topics (e.g., poverty) are not
as parts of a highly interconnected system: changes in covered explicitly, it should be evident from the other
one domain will inevitably result in changes, to varying topics (e.g., education, health, agriculture) how digital
degrees, in all the others. Although not arbitrary technology impacts the relevant interconnected SDGs.
designations, the Six Transformations attempt to
simplify the complex nature of the sustainability agenda 5.2 Human Capacity & Demography
by making it more understandable and tractable.
5.2.1 Health
Similarly, the Digital Revolution should not be
Technologies have always played an important role
viewed as being outside, or separate from, the other
in health systems. In particular, imaging technologies,
five transformations. It is deeply embedded within
from x-rays and computed tomography scans (formerly
all of them (as highlighted in the examples that
known as a computerized axial tomography, CAT)
follow), and, as one of the Six Transformations, it is
to nuclear-magnetic resonance (NMR) scans, have
arguably a key driver in achieving a sustainable future
improved diagnostics and led to a major reduction
for all. However, digitalization is not a single entity
in invasive procedures. These technologies are
or technology; rather, it is a highly interconnected
rapidly becoming portable and personal; for example,
system in itself. It represents the convergence and
ultrasound technology is available via smartphone,
interplay of many fields, such as computer science,
offering huge potential in the developing world (e.g.,
engineering, informatics, mathematics, biotechnology,
Butterfly Network1). Digital medicine involves new
nanotechnology, and manufacturing. To reap the
revolutionary technologies and algorithms, combining
potential benefits of digitalization for sustainable
the fields of traditional medicine, computer science,
development will require continued developments
robotics, and applied mathematics. Recent trends range
across all these domains, as well as in other disciplines,
from new technologies and business models to mobile
the social sciences foremost among them.
health, telemedicine, 3D printing, robotic surgery,
In this chapter, we present a series of vignettes genetic sequencing, biotechnology and synthetic
that serve as examples of the opportunities and biology, genetic profiling, personalized medicine, gene
challenges the Digital Revolution presents across therapy, computer-assisted diagnoses, and virtual
selected elements of this interconnected system. For reality (Figure 12).
simplicity, these vignettes are presented under the
With the rapid global uptake of smartphones and
transformation framework. The selected stories are
fitness trackers, people can easily monitor many
not intended to be comprehensive, exhaustive, or
aspects of their health in real time. They can count
overly analytical; rather, they provide an overview
1 https://www.butterflynetwork.com/

33
5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

Box 4. Narrative for 2050: Human Capacity & Demography, Education, Health, Aging, Labor
Markets, Gender, Inequalities
Premature causes of death decline rapidly for all through the provision of universal preventive and curative
medical care. Improvements in health care lead to increased life expectancies which by mid-century are globally
comparable to those in the developed world today. Investment in education increases dramatically with a
special focus on girls in the developing world, such that enrollment levels are achieved that lead to universal
attainment of primary and secondary education levels for girls as well as boys. As knowledge societies spread
worldwide, tertiary education includes most people and secondary becomes universal. This contributes to
a demographic transition toward slower global population growth, with the result the world’s population is
less than nine billion by 2050 and will decrease to current levels by the end of the century (Lutz et al., 2018;
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, 2018). Slower population growth has led to
gradual healthy aging, with one fifth of the population above the age of 65 years in 2050. New employment
demand arises in the health, education, research, and social sectors. The Digital Revolution places a significant
demand on high educational attainments and skills and offers improved care of the elderly beyond enhanced
and universal health care.

steps, track calorific intake and expenditure, monitor delivery of medicaments by drones) will help overcome
heart rate and sugar levels, and even take rudimentary the shortage of qualified health professionals, and
electrocardiograms. This has enabled people to keep reduce travel and waiting times for patients, resulting
track, and take control, of these health parameters, and in large savings for the health system.
it has led to an increase in people’s motivation to stay fit
and healthy. Numerous examples have been reported Advances are also being made in the incorporation
of how these new mobile technologies have saved lives. of telehealth technologies in the home. For example,
connected health monitoring systems can send real-
Telemedicine has the potential to reduce time information and data about the state of the
inequalities in access to modern medicine and medical patient via smartphone, delivering constant updates to
practitioners in many parts of the world, particularly their doctor. These can be analyzed and sent back to
in remote communities (Bradford et al., 2016). For the patient who has not even left the room. Doctors are
example, a “self-service” telehealth clinic was recently even implanting monitors/sensors within hip and knee
opened in a remote outback community (population of implants to measure pressure, blood flow, and more, all
12) in Australia, enabling patients to be seen remotely in real time without any action on the patient’s part.
by a health professional and to have access to routine Cisco (Cisco Spark and Cisco Extended care services) is
medicines when doctors and nurses are unavailable building these services in homes (Sprinkle, 2017).
(Briggs, 2019). Telemedicine (with, for example, the

Figure 12. The story of digital health: Technologies comprising the Digital and Genomic Revolutions. Source: Paul
Sonnier (https://storyofdigitalhealth.com/).

34
 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

Cars are already being equipped with mobile the surgeon’s capabilities and offers an alternative to
phones that can report the degree of injury in case of open surgery.
accident and alert emergency services, which can not
Virtual reality will become an essential component
only save lives but also improve automotive design to
of digital medicine. Doctors and medical students are
prevent accidents in similar situations in the future. In
already being taught about virtual objects, and they
addition, the high level of “self-awareness” of vehicles
take part in live surgery via virtual-reality headsets.
through sensors and high-computing power will
Nurses learn how to deal with patients in virtual
facilitate accident avoidance and early warning in case
environments. A dentist can train his or her skills on
of health issues that some passengers might face.
virtual-reality models. Virtual therapies against phobias
3D printing is rapidly becoming a reality for and paranoia, as well as rehabilitation applications, are
producing personalized prosthesis, such as artificial already being tested.
joints, limbs, and dental enhancements, at increasingly
Gene therapy offers enormous potential for
reduced costs. Advances are also being made in the
personalized medicine. Since the elucidation of
printing of living tissue and organs. Researchers
the structure of DNA in 1953, rapid advances in
recently announced the world’s first 3D-printed heart
biotechnology have led to the point where it is now
using human tissue (Noor et al., 2019). The industry
possible to manipulate and edit individual genes. The
generally assumes that entire organs for surgery will
first human genome took 13 years to sequence at a cost
be available in 10 to 20 years. This will essentially
of almost US$3 billion (NIH, 2019). It is now possible
overcome rejection complications and virtually
to get the same information in under a day at a cost
eliminate the need for animal experimentation.
of less than US$1,000 (NIH, 2019). It is becoming
Robots are increasingly being used during surgical increasingly commonplace for a cancer patient’s tumor
procedures. At present this involves a surgeon cells to be sequenced to identify specific mutations
“directing” a robot to perform the surgery, although that can be specifically targeted for individualized
advances are being made toward fully autonomous treatment. Gene therapy has the potential to eliminate
surgical robots. In the USA, 90% of prostate surgeries most genetic metabolic diseases. However, it is, of
are performed using robots (Navaratnam et al., 2018). course, accompanied by significant ethical challenges.
An excellent example is robotic-assisted surgery with Genome editing represents one of the most promising
the da Vinci® Surgical System developed by Intuitive areas of biotechnology, with the potential to produce
Surgical (Figure 13). The system allows surgeons to transformative breakthroughs in both human
perform complex surgical procedures with precision, health and agriculture (Biotechnology Inovation
accuracy, and minimal invasiveness. Robotic-assisted Organization, 2019). The US National Academy of
surgery and anesthesia enables surgeons to perform Sciences recommends the implementation of safety
delicate and complex operations with only a few and ethical regulations as the best strategy to avoid the
incisions. The system thereby advances and expands loss of public trust, and thus to preserve the potential

Figure 13. (Left) A da Vinci Surgical System at Addenbrooke’s Treatment Centre during the 2015 Cambridge
Science Festival. Source: Cmglee – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.
php?curid=39154360.
(Right) The surgeon console of a da Vinci Surgical System at Addenbrooke’s Treatment Centre during the 2015
Cambridge Science Festival. Source: Cmglee – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.
php?curid=39437443.

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

of the technology to benefit humanity (NAS, 2017). The Access to advanced (personalized) treatments
outline proposed by Royal Society (2012) under the also raises important governance issues. Many such
concept of “intelligent openness” provides a roadmap treatments are likely to be very costly in their application
for the changes needed to make science and technology or their development. If such treatments are developed
more open toward leveraging the involvement of an or provided through private for-profit companies,
informed public. there is a need to ensure access to all through universal
health insurance or public provision without curbing
Computer modeling and big data are increasingly
the incentives for innovation (for some discussion, see
used for drug discovery, which, together with advances
Kwon & Jung, 2018). Given that these technologies are
in synthetic biology, offer the possibility not only
predominantly developed within advanced economies,
of discovering new therapies and pharmaceuticals,
issues of patenting and licensing arise at a global level,
but also of making them personalized and cheap
just as they have done for advanced pharmaceuticals
to manufacture. Machine learning and artificial
(e.g., Outterson, 2005).
intelligence will result in better, personalized disease
diagnoses. Computers are already being used in image A prerequisite of digital medicine is that a patient’s
analysis of x-rays and in biopsy scans for breast and health records need to be stored and to be accessible
ovarian cancers, with accuracy rates greater than 98% across the health system. Therefore, it is not surprising
(Griffin et al., 2009). In the near future, doctors will be that cyber security is becoming a major challenge with
able to input a patient’s symptoms and test results into the rapid development and diffusion of digital medicine.
a computer which will return the most likely diagnosis There has recently been several data breaches and,
based on machine learning from large patient data unfortunately, the health-care industry was a major
sets. Taken together, these technologies will have a target. According to the Identity Theft Resource
significant impact on the global health system both for Center Data Breach Report of 2017, health care is the
patients and for providers. This will undoubtedly lead second biggest in contributing to data breaches, with
to better health outcomes and improvements in human 334 events in 2017; it has the third highest number
wellbeing and quality of life (Collins, 2010; Jackson & of exposed records among industries; and it was hit
Chester, 2015). However, this revolution is not without hardest by hacking, skimming and phishing attacks
risk (Antoñanzas et al., 2015) (Box 5). (ITRC, 2018).
While universal access to digital technology and In many cases, patients are now choosing to leave
data is clearly a prerequisite for the medical benefits health-care providers that have failed to protect their
from digitalization to materialize, this alone is not data, or they have chosen not to have their health records
sufficient unless people also have the knowledge and digitized. Of particular concern is the use of a person’s
skills necessary for understanding basic processes and health record by third-party external entities to deny
determinants of health as well as the consequences of people basic services, such as insurance or employment.
health-related behaviors. Otherwise, people provided These issues highlight just how critical compliance
with health indicators (e.g., heart rate, body mass and security are to the health-care sector. Quite apart
index, steps taken, blood pressure) may put their from the risk of illicit access and use of health-related
health at risk by engaging in biased behaviors (e.g., by information, people also need to be enabled to assess
undertaking excessive exercise to improve on certain the consequences and risks involved in voluntary (and
indicators, biasing their nutrition in an unfavorable legal) sharing of their health-related information. For
way, or focusing exclusively on the available indicators instance, health insurers are legally entitled to acquire
and neglecting other aspects of their health) or even in genetic information upon the underwriting of contracts
harmful behaviors (e.g., by following “false” information in some countries, which exposes an individual to the
about the effectiveness or risk of certain treatments). risk of obtaining an unfavorable insurance contract or,
There is much evidence that the educated are behaving indeed, no insurance at all. It is therefore important
considerably more effectively in respect to their health for people to understand at the point of obtaining and
(e.g., Avitabile et al., 2011; Hernandez et al., 2018; collecting information about their own health what
Lange, 2011). General and health-specific education risks are involved in the availability of personal health
is also important when it comes to enabling access to information. This presupposes a certain degree of
and compliance with advanced and typically complex education and awareness. Further challenges arise in
medical treatments such as personalized medicine or the drawing up of regulations that balance individual,
robotic surgery (Fiva, et al. 2014; Frankovic & Kuhn, corporate, and governments’ interests regarding the
2019; Glied & Lleras-Muney, 2008; Phelan & Link, access and use of health-care information (Hoy & Ruse,
2005). In summary, digitalization may well empower 2005; Miller & Tucker, 2017; Zick et al., 2005).
people to improve their health through behavioral
changes or access to highly effective treatments;
however, it can only act as a lever to the extent that
individuals are sufficiently educated.

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

Box 5. Human Enhancement

In the hugely popular 1970s science fiction action television series
The Six Million Dollar Man and The Bionic Woman, the protagonists,
following near fatal injuries, are given superhuman powers in the
form of bionic limbs and organs. Perhaps surprisingly, some 40
years later such human enhancement is more akin to science fact
than science fiction. Human performance has improved enormously
over the last century with unprecedented achievements in sports
and knowledge. Digital technologies and their convergence are
at a stage when they are already enhancing and augmenting
human physical and cognitive capabilities. The first artificial heart
pacemaker was implanted into a patient in the late 1950s, and it
is estimated that 1.4 million pacemakers will be in operation by
2023 (Statista, 2019). Digital cochlear implants that allow deaf
people to hear are routine procedures, and bionic limbs controlled
by a patient’s own brain are being trialed. New artificial joints,
such as hips and knees, contain motion sensors that can monitor
performance and detect falls. An “artificial pancreas” that both
monitors and controls insulin levels in diabetics will be widely
available within the next two years (Bekiari et al., 2018). Neural
implants are allowing patients to bypass “conventional” neural Figure 14. Are human robots the
pathways and control artificial limbs and peripheral devices by future? Source: Franck V. on Unsplash.
thought alone.
To date, the application of such digital technologies has primarily been to “correct” some form of physical
or mental impairment. However, the future use of such artificial organs and limbs will undergo a quantum
leap that will lead to new physical enhancements and augmentation, allowing the human life span, which
has doubled over the last century, to further increase, perhaps without limits. Some “biohackers” are already
experimenting with digital implants that enable them to open doors and cars remotely or to control Internet-
of-Things devices (Melendez, 2016).
The major challenge will certainly be cognitive enhancements. Advances in neurotechnology will be a game
changer that poses a number of ethical issues (Müller & Rotter, 2017; Prensky, 2009). According to market
research firm SharpBrains (2019), there has been a 500% increase in passive neurotechnology patents filed
in the USA in recent years. The Internet and mobile applications already provide important enhancements of
our cognitive capabilities by providing a kind of external memory and knowledge depository (Massachusetts
Institute of Technology’s Media Labs already offers a course on cognitive enhancement that explores how future
personal digital devices may help with issues such as attention, motivation, behavior change, memory, and
emotional regulation). US company NeuroSky1 has developed a mobile electroencephalography (EEG) headset
that passively reads brainwaves and interacts with a number health, education, and gaming applications.
The danger is, of course, a misuse and diffusion of alternative realities that in the future may be fundamentally
enhanced by virtual and enhanced realities. The loss of privacy and control of one’s data and personality are
already a challenge, but they may become huge dangers for democracies and free-thinking people should
new bionic and human-enhancement systems fall into the wrong hands or undergo evolution beyond human
control. Losing control, and the impossibility of social steering, might be one of the biggest threats posed by
the Digital Anthropocene.
Nevertheless, digitalization offers incredible possibilities for freeing humanity from physical toil, and for
augmenting and enhancing cognitive and physical capabilities. We are rapidly approaching the age of trans-
or post-humanism, in which the demarcation between “human” and “cyborg” (Clynes & Kline, 1960) will
increasingly become blurred. The old science fiction dream of machines making machines is a reality today,
but machines controlling humans rather than enhancing and augmenting them is a real danger. The future is
open, but the direction of change is unknown, so it must become the highest priority for change to be steered
toward the Sustainable Anthropocene for all.

1 https://store.neurosky.com/pages/mindwave

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

5.2.2 Education education, particularly for girls and women, has been
shown to have enormous spin-off benefits for society
Over the coming decades, arguably one of the biggest
and human capacity, including increased economic
impacts of digitalization will be felt in the area of
growth (Lutz et al., 2008), improved skills, innovation
education. Beginning with the pioneering use of
and increased labor productivity (Cuaresma et al.,
shortwave radio in the 1950s by Australia’s School
2014), reduced income inequality (Abdullah et al.,
of the Air program to deliver lessons to students
2015), reductions in population growth (Lutz & KC,
living in remote areas (Hanson, 2010), technology
2011), improved nutrition and health outcomes (Lutz
has played an important and ever-increasing role in
& KC, 2011), increased life expectancy (Lutz & Kebede
education. Today, the modern classroom, at least in
2018), reduced vulnerability to natural disasters
the developed world, sees individual students working
(Muttarak & Lutz, 2014), greater adaptability to climate
in “connected workspaces” with smart whiteboards,
change (Lutz et al., 2014), promotion of democracy
individual devices (laptops and tablets), and access to
and good governance (Fortunato & Panizza, 2015),
seemingly unlimited sources of information. Ever more
and greater environmental awareness and outcomes
higher education institutions livestream lectures and
(UNESCO, 2016).
offer entire courses online. The rise of Massive Open
Online Courses (MOOCs) has made higher education Digitalization of education will radically change
courses from some of the world’s most prestigious how course content and curricula are developed
institutions accessible to anybody in the world with a and delivered to students. With the growing digital
reasonable Internet connection, although with caveats awareness and competence of children, even those
(Box 3). Increasingly, virtual reality will allow students of pre-school age, curricula will need to reflect this
to experience field excursions and gain practical technologically competent society to ensure students
experience without ever leaving the classroom or their remain engaged in learning. The potential for greater
home (Figure 15). Students have access to “personal” flexibility, standardization, and even globalization
tutors 24 hours a day anywhere in the world through of curricula will increase equitability and provide
Internet platforms such as chegg.com. Textbooks, greater choice. No longer will the best outcomes be
school libraries, and even attendance at centralized provided by the “best schools”; there is no reason why
campuses are in rapid decline. an engineer from sub-Saharan Africa will be any less
competent than one from the USA or Japan. Students
The Digital Revolution in education will clearly
will be able to pick and choose among course subjects
increase access to quality education worldwide in
on offer and personalize their education to meet their
line with the objective of SDG 4 to “ensure inclusive
needs and aspirations, learning at their own pace and
and equitable quality education and promote life-long
competencies. Costs for delivering quality education
learning opportunities for all.” However, for this to be
outcomes should be drastically reduced as expensive
achieved, the necessary infrastructure of broadband
infrastructure will no longer be required. It is estimated
and energy must be concomitantly delivered in the
that e-learning alone could result in cost savings of
developing world and remote areas. Sustainable future
US$1.2 billion per year by 2030 due to a decrease
education scenarios reflect such advances (Figure 16).
in spending by students (GeSI & Accenture, 2015).
Sustainable education will also provide co-benefits
Technologies such as telepresence will enable students
across many of the other 17 SDGs (for review, see
to participate in classes from home or elsewhere.
Bengtsson et al., 2018), as increasing access to quality
Collaborative learning among students across the globe
will become increasingly commonplace, increasing
students’ exposure to different cultures and societies.
Platforms such as Microsoft’s Skype in the Classroom,2
a free online education community that already reaches
more than 1.5 million teachers in 256 countries and 66
languages, with an active 800,000 teachers each month
offering live classroom-to-classroom connections,
guest speakers, lessons, and virtual field trips.
The impact on teachers will be profound; they
will require a radically different skill set to be able
to deliver engaging “lessons” via new technologies.
There are approximately 80 million teachers
worldwide today (Roser, 2019), many of whom have
no formal pedagogical training, and the vast majority
have no experience or expertise in information and
Figure 15. Virtual reality as educational tool. Source: communication technologies (ICT). To realize the
STEMShare NSW on Unsplash. 2 www.skypeintheclassroom.com

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

Figure 16. About 80% of the global population over the age of 15 have at least primary education, up from just
over 56% in 1970 and 43% in 1950. Three SSP projections are shown: SSP1 is an ambitious pathway and a proxy
for a sustainable development pathway (SDP). SSP2 is the trend scenario. In SSP1 and SSP2, the historical trend
continues toward almost universal primary education, but the SDP calls for universal secondary education. SSP3
portrays little improvement. The share of the world’s population over 15 years of age with at least a secondary
education attainment has doubled from some 30% to 60%. SSP1 portrays a significant acceleration reaching
over 85% by mid-century. SSP3 portrays a deterioration leading to higher birth rates and global population. Most
importantly, post-secondary attainment increases in SSP1 and nearly stagnates in SSP3. Even in SSP1, the mid-
century level is just over 30% and not that much different from secondary education attainment in 1970. This is a
huge challenge for knowledge societies in times of digitalization. SDP would definitely need a higher educational
attainment if no one is to be left behind. Source: Data from Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human
Capital (2018) and Lutz et al. (2018).

potential of the continuing digitalization of education, activities. “Schools” may become community-based
it is imperative that students and teachers improve shared learning spaces where students interact to
their levels of computer literacy. share learning experiences.
The increasing digitalization of education will also It is estimated that over 264 million school-aged
impact the structure of our cities and social interactions. children are not receiving education, with most of
As education is increasingly delivered remotely so that these in Africa (UNESCO, 2017). Globally, almost 70
students learn from home, either individually or via million teachers will need to be recruited by 2030 to
“virtual classrooms”, the need for centralized campuses achieve SDG 4, with 17 million of them required in sub-
and associated infrastructure will diminish. Transport Saharan Africa based on existing methods of delivering
needs and patterns will change with an estimated education (UNESCO, 2017). Technological advances
saving of 5 billion liters of fuel and mitigation of 0.1 in the delivery of classes may dramatically reduce
GtCO2e (one billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) the number of new teachers required, thus allowing
per year (GeSI & Accenture, 2015). However, the loss investment in improved delivery infrastructure.
of neighborhood schools and “college towns” may Providing access to education through technology
impact the sense of community, increasing isolation will prove pivotal in the developing world, where
among students through a lack of face-to-face personal access to schools and quality teachers is particularly
interaction. This may not be a problem for the new problematic. Providing situations where children can
digital generation for which most social interaction is learn in their own homes in their own time overcomes
online through social media. Unfortunately, this will the problems of having children attend school during
not reduce bullying, peer pressure, or social exclusion, prescribed times at prescribed places, resulting in less
as these will simply transfer from the physical interference in daily routines and reduced costs. This
world to cyberspace where it is more persistent and will require the necessary infrastructure investments
anonymous, as is becoming increasingly evident today. to ensure adequate and reliable high-speed broadband
More opportunities for physical social interaction Internet (>50 Mbits per second) and access to
will need to be provided at the community level to electricity.
reflect cultural habits, such as through sport or other

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

Box 6. Digital Games in Education for a Sustainability Transformation

Games, whether digital or analog, are structured experiences for playing. Digitalization is advancing games
through a quantum leap in creativity of virtual spaces for players. Play is a critical component of learning and
inspiration at all ages, not only for its intrinsic motivation of fun, but also for allowing experimentation with
less risk and fear of failure. Games provide opportunities to introduce crucial information and concepts for
sustainability in non-didactic, developmentally and culturally appropriate ways (Vervoort, 2019), and they
can also serve as valuable boundary objects to facilitate dialogue among actors with diverse levels of power,
knowledge, and resources in conflict situations (Li et al., 2015). Narrative-driven role-playing games can also
be designed to engage players and develop awareness of and empathy with others living in very different
contexts and cultures (Mendler de Suarez et al., 2012). Games can become a bridge between, on the one hand,
the social affordances of personal presence and face-to-face contact, and, on the other, digital representations
as avatars. Playing the game may then help develop a sense of the kinship of interdependence among people
and with the environment. There are at least three parallel and complementary strands of digital games:
1. In one strand, games are platforms for experimentation with scenarios that are tuned to a certain subset
of parameters critical to the functioning and dynamics of the scenario; that is, they are safe, experimental
spaces for (often technocratic) problem solving. This type of experimentation is a fertile ground for collecting
and analyzing data on decision making, similar to decision theaters. This is usually most effective if the users
(e.g., policymakers, planners, and engineers) come to the experimentation with experience and questions.
2. The second strand consists of games or exhibition pieces designed primarily to engage non-experts and
experts alike with memorable, easily accessible experiences that stimulate curiosity and facilitate engagement
with a very limited set of core ideas about aspects of sustainable social-ecological systems. In this approach, the
model behind the game is intentionally very simple and focuses both on illuminating the few ideas essential for
a basic understanding and on stimulating questions and interest. This can be done in dynamic, surprising (often
cognitively dissonant), and multisensory memorable ways. The game or exhibit, which could be purely virtual,
purely physical, or mixed reality, is an environment that quickly engages and inspires users as they encounter
instantiations of core ideas in ways that are readily graspable. On an elementary level of content, it can also
function as a problem-solving playground and as a boundary object for stimulating inquiry and dialogue.
Games exist that allow coupling of virtual or mixed reality landscapes between different locations; such games
engage people in different contexts and locations in open dialogue on specific aspects of sustainability and on
the decision-making process in complex socioecological systems. Two examples of mixed reality games are
shown in Figure 17 (Kreyon City) and Figure 18 (Energy Transition Game).
3. A sustainability game could engage many people over an extended time in a massive multiplayer online
role-playing game (MMORG). It would be a narrative-driven role-playing adventure game related to the
urgent and critical challenges of transforming societies at multiple scales and governance levels toward more

Figure 17. Kreyon City augmented reality game prototype, Rome 2017. Source: Ilan Chabay (2015).

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

Figure 18. Baden-Württemberg Stiftung “Expedition N” traveling exhibition on the energy transition, designed
by Ilan Chabay and Ortwin Renn, and visited by 700,000 people from 2010 to 2018. Source: Ilan Chabay (2017).

sustainable pathways. Players would endeavor to achieve futures appropriate to local and regional contexts
and cultures. It would be based on a large number of stories, some professionally written and others crowd
sourced, from many different sources, contexts, and cultures. The stories would be woven together in a vast
landscape. Successful completion of the separate quests in the stories would require learning (in easily
digestible chunks) and using local knowledge and norms. The player can use the increasing knowledge,
reputation, and resources gained in quests to influence and impact his or her game-world encounters. The
idea takes much from MMORG “dungeons and dragons” games, but with real-world political, economic, and
social challenges that would need to be addressed by negotiation and problem solving. Players would have to
acquire resources, reputation, and influence, rather than increasingly powerful swords and sorcery. Individual
players could freely navigate in the virtual landscape, while also being part of a large, changing, and diverse
group of players continually acting in local stories, accumulating resources, and building supportive social
movements to influence a transformation to sustainable futures in the game world. Players could also work
on virtual construction efforts to build installations or facilities (e.g., distributed renewable energy, sanitation,
food production). A major challenge in developing the game would be to create an overarching architecture
that weaves the separate strands of the stories into a coherent fabric leading toward global sustainability (i.e.,
a virtual representation of the daunting challenge of dealing with the conflicting interactions and trade-offs in
the SDGs). The player enters the game without necessarily having any knowledge of the relationship between
the strands or the underlying narrative of social movements toward sustainable futures in multiple contexts
and cultures. The overarching architecture only slowly becomes apparent during the pursuit of the many
possible story quests and dialogues with other human avatars and non-player characters. Most players would
not initially become involved in the game for the purpose of learning about the complex challenges of global
change. Nonetheless, raising awareness of and interest in these challenges and the need for sustainability
would be the intended outcomes of engaging players over an extended period of time.

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

To take advantage of the enormous benefits offered hygiene (SDG 6), and employment (SDG 8). Women and
by this new education revolution, policymakers need to girls are most prone to poverty (SDG 1), hunger (SDG
ensure that all students and institutions have equitable 2), lack of clean energy access (SDG 7), and climate
access to these new technologies, particularly in impacts (SDG 13).
the developing world, where advances in access to
Women and girls face barriers to digital inclusion
education will arguably have the greatest impact. The
that reflect the gender inequality in the physical world
prospect of only the wealthiest schools and students
in access to education, careers, and opportunities
able to access this transformation must be avoided at
(Figure 19). Technology can be an enabler of inclusion,
all costs. Education can be the great “social equalizer”
but if the environment (economic, political, social)
with the right policy frameworks and investments.
is still discriminatory, women and girls may not be
Internet access can remove the barrier of geographic
better off. The public sector should lead the way with
access, opening up information sources in faraway
suitable policies. The private sector (e.g., information
places. However, access to these resources may still
and telecommunication companies, banks, health
be prevented by limited access to electricity and the
providers) also has a responsibility – as well as a
Internet, the costs of the Internet, journal paywalls,
business interest, given the size of the untapped market
and other conditions unrelated to the availability of
– in creating better digital products, services, and
information itself. Open source encyclopedias such as
opportunities specifically targeted to, and addressing,
Wikipedia3 and free courses further ensure the spread
women’s constraints, needs, and ambitions. The private
of information in the digitalized world.
sector must help create an enabling environment for
The Digital Revolution could also provide new women’s and girls’ empowerment.
means of public engagement and participation in
For digitalization to become a true enabler of
policy design aimed at guidance and regulation of new
women’s empowerment, institutes and public offices
technologies (Box 6). Virtual and augmented reality
must supplement efforts to reduce underlying systemic
and games are increasingly being used in scenario-
inequalities, particularly in four areas: (i) in educating
building processes, improving our cognitive capacity
girls equally in digital technology so that they have
to understand not only the implications of decisions in
equal access to a digital career (Outlay et al., 2017); (ii)
complex social-ecological systems, but also the multiple
in providing safe spaces accessible to girls and women
perspectives that guide better decisions. This can be a
(De Pauw, 2011); (iii) in teaching awareness of and
powerful tool for supporting transformation processes.
protecting girls and women from digital violence, such
The power of virtual reality to bridge between groups
as online harassment (Livingstone & Bulger, 2014);
and tell narratives for audiences that otherwise would
and (iv) encouraging women to become designers
have been difficult to reach has been shown by, for
and creators of technology (e.g., mobile financial
example, Voices of the favela.4 This interactive virtual
technology) that could be better targeted at improving
reality experience enabled local inhabitants to talk
their own lives, especially for those suffering abject
about their lives in the favela, with their presentations
poverty (Plan International, 2018). Again, the private
reaching international experts at high-level events in
sector plays a crucial role in designing, developing,
other countries in Latin America and Europe. A well-
and offering products and services that enable gender
informed and educated public could facilitate the
equality. Although many of these initiatives, at first
adoption of new technologies with key roles in the
glance, focus on women and girls, men and boys
transformation toward sustainability.
have crucial roles to play in creating more equitable
5.2.3 Gender Equality and Empowerment societies.

“Achiev[ing] gender equality and empower[ing] The current discourse on the Digital Revolution
all women and girls” (SDG 5) will support overall and gender often focuses on inequalities or gaps
development. Any progress in the empowerment of relating to access to, usage of, or skills needed for
women, specifically facilitated through the Digital novel technologies. The Digital Revolution provides
Revolution, impacts the other five Fundamental a plethora of opportunities to empower women.
Transformations and 17 SDGs. For example, if we were TWI2050 is going beyond the dominating discourse
to improve women’s access to sexual and reproductive on “digital gender divide and gender skill gap”, which
health, rights, and services, this would also reduce reflects the extensive gender-related inequalities that
maternal mortality, help end communicable diseases currently exist (Hilbert, 2011). In line with the SDGs,
such as HIV and AIDS, and slow population growth TWI2050 envisions a world of equal opportunities.
(SDG 3). When women and girls have autonomy and This translates to overcoming existing inequalities in
relevant information conducive to their health, there education, health, economy, rights, and participation.
are positive effects on education (SDG 4), sanitation and With regards to education, the contribution of
3 www.wikipedia.com digitalization for women’s empowerment relates to
4 https://scenethere.com/home/voices-of-the-favela/ (i) technologies as a means of increasing the access to

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

Figure 19. Gender gap in mobile Internet use in low- and middle-income countries, by region. Base: total
population. Source: GSMA (2019).

information and high-quality education, and (ii) relevant Feroz et al. (2017) provide examples of pregnant
education for the Digital Revolution (see 5.2.2). In both, women receiving regular advice and reminders about
there lies a chance of empowering women. Applying pregnancy care and scheduled antenatal visits through
new technologies to formal and informal learning can their mobile phones in Ghana, Tanzania, and other
improve access to education in remote areas through African countries. Reproductive technologies (such
online courses. Such distance education will support as period tracking apps, in vitro fertilization, and egg-
and enhance the training of women and girls who are freezing) enable women to take control of their fertility,
not participating in formal education. Another aspect of thereby allowing them to choose if and when to have
empowerment is related to the skill sets necessary for children. This has direct implications for their ongoing
the Digital Revolution. Providing women with relevant health, education, and employment, as well as for
training strengthens their employability and financial overall population growth. Women, especially pregnant
and social independence. There are several examples women, are underrepresented as patients in medical
of such initiatives, such as Change is Made with Code,5 research. Increasing the collection and availability of
CodersTrust,6 or GirlsGoIT.7 data on gender and sex differences in health services,
treatment, and products may improve research and the
As with education, digitalization can spur
creation of products and services for women.
improvements in health (see 5.2.1), particularly in
remote areas, by providing information and (mobile) The Digital Revolution enhances women’s economic
health services targeted at women. While digital empowerment by streamlining production in, and
technologies can be supportive, policies need to allow management of, small to medium-sized enterprises, and
for the equal, accessible, and full dissemination of by creating business and employment opportunities
information relating to sexual and reproductive health. for women as owners or managers of information
Such information and services will include sexual and and communication projects. This can lead to greater
reproductive rights, which are at the heart of gender economic independence, increased self-esteem, greater
empowerment and closely related to fertility rates. respect from others, and more decision-making power
5 https://www.madewithcode.com/projects/change within the household. For example, the digital space in
6 https://www.coderstrust.com/ conflict-affected countries can be much safer than the
workplace in more traditional jobs. The same applies
7 https://girlsgoit.org/

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

for women as customers of products and services. Yet, not facilitated by traditional avenues. This helps to
the Digital Revolution and its impacts on the job market bring neglected issues (including social taboos like
also impact women. According to a recent study on the female genital mutilation) into the public arena.
US labor market, although women make up only 47% of The most prominent example has probably been
the labor force, they perform 58% of the jobs at highest the #MeToo movement against sexual harassment
risk because of automation (Hegewisch et al., 2019). and assault. Digital technologies also help overcome
This could hamper women’s economic advancement. social norms that limit freedom to form associations,
Digital financial services, on the other hand, accelerate participate in formal governance structures, and
financial inclusion. They offer a solution to the gender access public information. They can support the
gap in account ownership, and they increase the voices of marginalized women. Women can use digital
volume and value of transactions in formal financial technologies to express themselves publicly, access
activities (e.g., digital platforms enable crowdfunding uncensored information, and form virtual networks,
for female entrepreneurs). With their financial power including for campaign purposes.
often lagging behind men’s, women are using their
At the same time, technologies can also be used to
accounts less and have less experience with and trust
control women. For example, in line with local laws and
in traditional financial institutions. Digital services
practices, an app exists in Saudi Arabia (Absher) that
might help overcome these obstacles.
enables male guardians to track the whereabouts of
In developing countries, one in two women lack an their female dependents. Although it has been argued
official identity and women are 50% more likely than that this defies women empowerment, it has also
men to not have an official identification (ID4D, 2019). been suggested that the app has increased women’s
Digital technologies and e-governance can facilitate mobility (Bennet, 2019): previously men would just
the provision of identities, with their related benefits prevent women from leaving the home, but the app
and access to public and social services (e.g., India’s makes men more comfortable with women traveling
Aahar program8). Official identities also bring citizen because they know where they are. The issues of data
rights, empowering women to participate in politics protection and surveillance are of relevance to any of
and elections. Digital technologies are already being the above-mentioned opportunities offered by digital
deployed to advance women’s rights, and we can build technologies in relation to gender empowerment. This
on these developments. Examples include mobile phone is not unique to technologies supporting networking
apps that allows users to report unsafe spaces (e.g., and information flow in support of women’s rights. It
data collection, safety buttons, helplines) and tools that lies in the hands of policymakers to provide an enabling
provide access to relevant information (e.g., domestic regulatory framework.
violence laws, women’s rights, support contacts and
groups). Apps can enhance women’s networking for 5.3 Consumption & Production
business purposes and social organizing, strengthen The Digital Revolution offers huge potential to make
women’s participation in the political process, support accessible many services in a much more resource-
the work of female officials, and increase women’s efficient manner (Figure 20).
access to government and its services (e.g., social
payments, rations, pensions). The largest transformative impacts of digitalization
on consumption and production arise from two trends:
Digital technologies (e.g., online petitioning and
social media campaigning) facilitate the establishment 1. (Near) zero marginal costs of transactions, that is,
of alternative organizations such as non-governmental an additional unit of consumption (e.g., a video or
organizations (NGOs) to address issues that are music streaming and download) can be provided at
practically zero cost, thus increasing affordability
8 https://uidai.gov.in/

Box 7. Narrative for 2050: Consumption & Production, Resource Use, Circular Economy, Sufficiency,
Pollution
By 2050, the consumption and production of goods and services has moved toward a sustainable pattern.
Consumption patterns are driven by changes in technology and behavior, and they are based on a sense of
shared responsibility. There is predominant demand for the sustainable use of resources with reduced waste,
pollution, and environmental degradation. On the production side, industry is highly automated and organized
by a mixture of hubs and distributed elements. In the transition period, this can be facilitated by, for example,
additive (3D) manufacturing. Production systems are more localized and self-sufficient, and operate, to a large
extent, circularly with full recycling and reuse. Large cost reductions, and changes in regulations and behavior,
lead to massive improvements in efficiency and uptake of zero-carbon energy systems.

44
 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

Figure 20. The rapid progress of information and telecommunication technologies could be an indication of the
path-breaking potential of next-generation digital technologies and their clustering in new activities and associated
behaviors. A smartphone needs between 2.2 Watts in standby to some 5 Watts in use, while the numerous
devices portrayed in the figure that it replaces need up to a hundred times more power. There is about a factor
25 reduction of embedded energy required to produce the devices and a proportional reduction in emissions.
Bundling of services from various devices in the smartphone can be regarded as an example of the power of the
Digital Revolution and its huge potential to increase resource efficiencies through new technologies and behaviors.
Source: Nuno Bento, based on data in Grubler et al. (2018) and visualization of Tupy (2012).

for poorer segments of society. Hence, there is As the experience of digitalized services improves,
interest in substituting current dominant, resource- the services foster increasing use of leisure time for
intensive, physical products and services with dematerialized and digital entertainment services that
digital, “virtual” services as the main element of a range from globally connected computer games to
strategy toward “dematerialization”. home entertainment services and the creation of virtual
2. The possibility of matching supply and demand in reality and society. These activities may substitute
real time through digital coordination platforms many of the current energy-intensive recreational
offers vast potential for better asset utilization and activities, thus contributing to the transformation
improved quality of service. This is, in essence, the toward virtual consumption patterns.
underlying principle of the “sharing economy” in
The dematerialization potential of virtual
which the traditional model of service provision is
consumption is vast, and there are countless possible
shifted from “ownership” to “usership” of devices
virtual services, but the widespread adoption of such
that provide consumer services (e.g., cars in ride-
services may also imply fundamental societal risks. If
sharing services). “Just-in-time” service provision
not managed appropriately, digitalization may lead to
models can also make traditional differentiation
power accumulation through centralized data control,
between, for example, “public” (large volume, low
increasing the risk of information control and mass
cost, schedule-based, fixed access and delivery
manipulation.
stations) and “private” (low volume, high cost,
flexible timing and delivery points) transport The positive impacts of digitalization on the SDGs
increasingly blurred if not obsolete. can be summarized as follows: better and lower cost
services improve access and affordability and hence
The Digital Revolution may be critical for reducing
contribute toward reduction of poverty and inequality.
energy and material needs through substitution
Better asset utilization and virtualization increase
of “real” services by virtual or digitalized services.
resource efficiency and can reduce the resource and
Examples of such services are the rapid adoption of
ecological footprint of human activities, thus positively
virtual communication, meeting services, and tele-
contributing to a range of SDGs.
conferencing, which have the potential to replace a large
fraction of current fuel consumption for long-distance Potential negative effects can be grouped into four
and carbon-intensive business travel (worldwide, one clusters:
of the fastest growing energy services).

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

1. Lack of access to digital infrastructure and services imagination. The flexibility in design and physical
compounds the negative impacts of the digital properties not previously possible mean that there’s
divide, potentially opening up a digital consumption a range of practical applications and uses (SPI Lasers,
divide. For example, someone who does not own a 2019). During the last decade, additive manufacturing
smartphone could no longer use public transport has expanded to include applications in many areas
options organized under a pervasive shared of our lives. From prototyping and tooling to direct
mobility model. part manufacturing in industrial sectors such as
2. Big data applications centered on private architecture, pharmaceuticals, dentistry, aerospace,
consumption and services raise data privacy vehicles, furniture, and jewelry, new and innovative
concerns and present risks of social control by applications are constantly being developed. In
governments and/or large multinational firms. Also, addition, additive manufacturing has revolutionized
the fundamental nature of network externalities the design and manufacturing – from consumer goods
(benefits grow exponentially with the degree of produced in small batches to large-scale manufacture
interconnectedness and information sharing) (Metal AM, 2019). AM has several advantages over
almost automatically lead to natural monopolies. conventional manufacturing, including reductions in
3. Cost reductions in services could lead to “take- lead time, reduction of scrap materials, lower inventory
back” (or economic “rebound”) effects in which costs, less manufacturing complexity, reduced floor
cost savings lead to further increases in the same or space, and the ability to deliver manufactured pieces
substitute demands. For example, cost reductions with complex shapes and geometries. It can yield
from shared mobility models for urban commuting significant energy and resource savings (IEA, 2017).
to work could lead to increased demands for (long- The applications are vast, and they include exceedingly
distance) recreational travel trips on weekends and concerning developments: such as guns that can be
during holidays. printed at home, and it may be even possible one day to
4. Negative impacts on employment: Better asset print weapons of mass destruction (Metal AM, 2019).
utilization in a sharing economy and increasing
Additive manufacturing uses computer-aided-
virtualization, despite reducing resource use and
design (CAD) software or 3D-object scanners to control
waste, will impact manufacturing through lower
hardware that deposits material, layer upon layer, with
demand for devices, vehicles, and physical goods,
exceedingly high precision. Other advantages are the
and hence negatively impact employment. Moreover,
extensive flexibility of printing directly from a CAD
increasing digitalization of service provision, such
model without the need for any additional tools. This
as autonomous vehicles in public transport fleets,
results in the ability to produce complex geometric
reduces the need for human labor, again negatively
designs. An example of applications that tap the full
impacting employment. Concerns are also voiced
potential of additive manufacturing precision and
that continued digitalization in manufacturing
flexibility are dental restorations (see 5.2.1). Already,
could render the traditional comparative advantage
3D printers produce everything from prosthetic hands,
of emerging economies in manufacturing (lower
heart valves, and engine parts, to basketball shoes and
labor costs) increasingly obsolete. This could lead
fancy chocolates.
to a relocation of industrial and manufacturing
activities back to industrialized countries, or it could Another high-value application of additive
create an additional entry barrier for resource- manufacturing is in aerospace. The CFM (a joint
based economies that currently benefit from the venture between GE Aviation and Safran Aircraft
international division of labor in their efforts to Engines) LEAP jet engine9 is an epiphany of
industrialize. disruption. It uses AM to achieve huge improvements
in performance and reduction of materials use. For
Neither positive nor negative impacts of
example, the nozzle turbine is 25% lighter and five
digitalization on consumption and production are
times more durable than conventionally manufactured
preordained. Public policy is instrumental, particularly
parts. It was essentially impossible to produce the
in the early formative phase of the development of
nozzle by conventional manufacturing (Kellner,
new technologies and business models, in terms
2017). As a result, it is hardly surprising that other
of regulating standards, data access and privacy,
organizations, like Aerojet Rocketdyne and the Chinese
monopolies/competition, and, above all, infrastructure
People’s Liberation Army, are already using additive
development and assuring equitable access.
manufacturing to print sophisticated metal parts for
5.3.1 Additive Manufacturing jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and fighter
aircraft (Kaelin, 2013; Kellner, 2017; Zaleski, 2015).
Additive manufacturing (AM, also known as 3D The impacts of selected additive manufacturing
printing) was initially seen as a process for concept lightweight metallic manufacturing of components in
modeling and rapid prototyping. Being able to “print”
weird and wonderful projects has captured the public’s 9 https://www.cfmaeroengines.com/engines/leap/

46
 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

the US aircraft fleet are truly disruptive. Under different puzzle, one of the hardest parts is simply getting all
adoption scenarios to 2050, 9% to 17% of total typical the necessary pieces (Kroenig, 2010). Attempts to
aircraft mass could be replaced by lighter additive buy or build these items – such as the components of
manufacturing components. If fully adopted by 2050, a gas centrifuge – are beset with obstacles and set off
this could, in relation to the US aircraft fleet, lead to alarm bells that alert the international community to
annual reductions of metal demand by nearly 20,000 the existence of a covert weapons program. However,
tons and of overall fuel use by up to 6.4% (IEA, 2017). additive manufacturing and the right digital build files
would enable a country or a clandestine organization
Like many disruptive technologies, however,
to print many of the specialized components for a
additive manufacturing has a dark side. The case in
nuclear program quickly, with little technical skill, and
point here is 3D-printed guns (Figure 21). Most (in)
at low cost. Moreover, hiding such a program would
famous is the Liberator gun with parts that can, in
be much easier than under traditional manufacturing
principle, be printed at home with low-cost printers
methods, rendering obsolete many of the international
(Greenberg, 2013). One can simply print a gun and fire
community’s tools for spotting illicit nuclear activity.
away. The only non-plastic components of the weapon
Fortunately, the proliferation potential of additive
are the firing pin (a standard metal nail) and a piece of
manufacturing has not yet fully materialized.
steel, weighing less than 200 grams, whose function is
to make the gun detectable by a metal detector. This As with any technological advance, new possibilities
part can be removed if the gun is intended for illegal come with new perils. Because of the digital nature
purposes. Also, the guns do not have serial numbers, of additive manufacturing, hackers could infiltrate
making them, to all intents and purposes, “ghost guns”. digital blueprints, resulting in a new kind of threat:
Police are concerned that plastic guns allow evidence cyber sabotage in the physical world. Experts have
to be more easily destroyed than is the case with estimated that 3D printers might produce only 5%
conventional guns. At the same time, however, printed of all consumer goods in the coming years, yet it is
guns may be more dangerous for their users than for possible that it could be more like 90% (Johnston et
those targeted. Ironically, the potential threat level of al., 2018). Millions of jobs could hang in the balance. A
printed guns could be much higher in places with strict recent analysis by the World Economic Forum (Rodrik,
gun control. 2018), has estimated that 3D printing, robotics, and
other advanced technologies could contribute to a loss
An even greater and potentially cataclysmic threat
of five million jobs from major economies in the next
is that additive manufacturing could challenge major
five years. But other studies (Garrett, 2014; Gebler et
control mechanisms for inhibiting nuclear proliferation.
al., 2014) have concluded that 3D printing could be
Additive manufacturing will make it easier for countries
part of a new Industrial Revolution 4.0 or society 5.0,
to acquire nuclear weapons, providing a way to print
eliminating the advantage of cheap labor in such places
pieces of the nuclear jigsaw puzzle indigenously before
as China, bringing production back to the USA, and
anyone notices and making it more difficult for the
completely reimagining the concept of international
international community to detect and stop them.
trade as most things could be manufactured locally.
If building the bomb is like solving a giant jigsaw

Figure 21. 3D-printed products. From left to right: robot printing continuous tracks. Source CuriosityII - Own
work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=37221284; 3D-printed miniature
turbine from Rapid 2006 in Chicago, Illinois. Source: Bcn0209 at English Wikipedia, - “snapshot of an image I took.”
Transferred from Wikipedia to Commons by Calliopejen1 using CommonsHelper, Public Domain, https://commons.
wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=16958731; side view of Defense Distributed “Liberator” 3D-printed hand gun.
Source: NotLessOrEqual – Own work, CC0 1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=59334489.

47
5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

5.3.2 Financial Services access to and inclusion in financial services (UNSGSA

et al., 2018).
The implications of digitalization in the financial sector
seem to be enormous. In 1914, economist William The World Energy Forum and Deloitte identified
Scott defined the four main services that commercial 11 disrupting clusters of innovations related to
banks had to offer as (i) safekeeping of money and digitalization. These innovations will exert pressure
other valuables, (ii) payments, (iii) loans, and (iv) on the traditional financial services model in the near
investments (Scott, 1914). Apart from the addition future (McWaters, 2015) (Figure 22).
of insurance, these services have remained mostly In line with other industry studies, consumers
unchanged (McWaters, 2015; UNSGSA, Better Than will continue to need financial services, but they will
Cash Alliance, UNCDF, & World Bank, 2018), but the embrace less localized and decentralized solutions
methods and customer expectations of delivering (PWC, 2016). The sharing economy is foreseen to
them have profoundly changed and are continuing to become embedded in financial products, including
undergo change. The locality and physical reality of peer-to-peer lending, and cashless and payment-
financial services have been transformed: in developed integrated services (such as Uber and Amazon).
countries, digital distribution of data and networked
systems driven by convenience and cost reduction are Traditionally, banking systems were largely
prevalent (de Almeida, Fazendeiro, & Inácio, 2018), impenetrable for new entrants. With the digital
and in developing countries there has been increasing transformation, small and agile new suppliers have

Figure 22. Disruptive innovation clusters in the six key financial services. Source: McWaters (2015).

48
 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

appeared in large numbers, and incumbents are The current transformations of infrastructure will
losing leverage unless they adapt to the new financial become the norm. Many banks already use cloud-based
ecosystem (McWaters, 2016). Financial technology software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications for non-core
(FinTech) disruptors are usually fast-moving, processes, but shortly these will be the main (or only)
responsive start-up companies that generally focus on a platforms for all business activities. On the customer
particular innovative technology or process. They have side, mobile and online services will become the norm.
been invading various services, from mobile payments Globally, mobile accounts have reached half a billion
to insurance, and have more than tripled annual global people, 277 million of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa
investments in the last five years (PWC, 2016). The (Lashitew et al., 2019). In light of this, cyber security
banking industry has recently seen the introduction becomes a critical threat to be overcome.
of numerous online only or direct banks (e.g., N2610),
The digital financial transformation can contribute
many of which offer worldwide access.
to the development of a financial inclusion regime.
Data and analysis are becoming key to revenues and Mobile money in Kenya has become a key part of the
profitability. Customer intelligence based on big data, economy (Box 8), and 70% of the adult population
but then translated to tailored services, is predicted in Kenya use mobile money services (Lashitew et al.,
to shape the future of service requirements. Financial 2019). The online banking services far outnumber
services and technology companies use artificial the traditional banking access in many developing
intelligence to explore social and emotional intelligence, countries.
natural language processing, logical reasoning, pattern
Financial inclusion means that formal financial
assessment, sensors, mobility, navigation, and more.
services (e.g., savings, payment services, loans, and
The services created are expected to substitute the
insurance) become easily accessible for all consumers
traditional bank cashier to supply a more personalized
(GFPI, 2011). However, the current level of access is
treatment.
still limited, even if it is growing. Financial exclusion
largely affects the poor, but even the middle classes
10 https://www.n26.com/en-us/ in developing countries, amounting to 45% of adults

Box 8. Kenya: A Digital Revolution Success Story

Kenya has become one of the digital leaders in Africa in a relatively short period of time. Its success is due
to many years of consistent support by the Kenyan government and a determined strategy that has included
programs to help its population become digital-ready as well as investments in infrastructure. The percentage
of the population with access to the Internet is higher in Kenya than in other African countries. It also has the
highest use of mobile phones for financial and other transactions (Banga & te Velde, 2018). This is even more
extraordinary given that in 1982 the Kenyan government banned the use of computers in public offices to
prevent the new technologies from eliminating the need for secretarial jobs. Today, Kenya includes programs
to address the Digital Revolution as one of its development pillars in its 2030 Vision (Ndemo & Weiss, 2016).
Kenya is an example of a developing economy where the Digital Revolution has thrived. In the services
sector, digitalization has helped to create new jobs, particularly in the provision of financial services. M-Pesa,
the mobile based transfer facility established in Kenya in 2007, has revolutionized the financial services
industry not only in Africa but also in many developing countries across the world. Digitalization has also
helped to increase labor productivity in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, especially in the production
of machinery, in electronics, and in the transport sector; rapid advances are also being made in the chemicals,
plastics, and rubber industries (Banga & te Velde, 2018).
The success of Kenya is due to a combination of factors that helped the Digital Revolution take hold. One
of the most important was a five-point policy that consisted of (i) programs dedicated to the development
of the information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure; (ii) creation of relevant content
that supported the development of Kenya; (iii) a focus on creating the appropriate skills and building human
resource capacity; (iv) promotion of entrepreneurship, start-ups, and public–private partnerships; and (v)
a program dedicated to the creation of jobs for Kenyan youth. This last point was particularly important
given Kenya’s high rate of youth unemployment. Another key factor was the impact that the first fiber optic
cable, which was introduced in the Eastern Seaboard of Africa, had on lowering the cost of communications.
This helped to mainstream Internet access in universities and start-up hubs that were created at subsidized
rates. The success of M-Pesa, particularly its increase in subscribers, was helped by this development. Finally,
the important development of the Kenya Open Data Initiative supported the creation of new apps and new
entrepreneurs (Ndemo & Weiss, 2016).

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

Figure 23. Financially excluded population worldwide. Source: Asli et al. (2018), CC BY 3.0.

(or nearly two billion people), do not have a financial 11). Cities are congested and people in cities waste time
account at all (Manyika et al., 2016) (Figure 23). in administrative tasks. Electronic solutions can reduce
participation time, and cash collection dependency
Financial inclusion helps create the conditions
can increase flexibility of collecting and paying fees
that ultimately bring many of the SDGs within reach
and dues (UNSGSA et al., 2018). In particular, public
(UNSGSA et al., 2018).
services, such as transportation, can benefit from
When people are included in the financial system, time and cost savings. In Colombia, for example,
they have increased chances to move out of poverty, smart public transport transit cards increased the use
for example through access to business or education of public transport by 56% in one year. In Sweden,
investment opportunities (Klapper et al., 2016). Digital digital congestion charges in Stockholm reduced traffic
financial services help families save money and cope volume by 22% in a few weeks and congestion by 30–
with risks and shocks. Businesses can have access to 50%. In addition, government transfers through digital
innovative rating systems and expand access to low- services reduce operational costs. For example, in India,
cost loans. Payments via digital services increase a switch from cash to smart cards reduced requested
fairness through their transparency (e.g., reduction in bribes by officials by 47%. Governments can capture
bribes; Muralidharan et al., 2016) and by making sure about 20% of leakages when using digital payments,
the salary reaches those who have actually worked alternative data sources, and advanced analytics. This
for it. For example, in Burkina Faso, savings are three amounts to a trillion dollars of savings (UNSGSA et al.,
times more common among those with mobile money 2018).
than those without (Ky et al., 2017).
One of the most disruptive digital technologies
Financial inclusion can help increase access to to impact the financial sector in recent times has
faster, safer, more efficient, and cheaper payments for been cryptocurrencies. Digital currencies and other
farmers, thus contributing to a reduction in hunger innovations in payment systems could increase the
(UNSGSA et al., 2018). Access to credit to invest in speed of domestic and cross-border transactions,
improved production (agricultural or industrial), as reduce transaction costs, and eventually broaden access
well as access to insurance, can better secure earnings to the financial system for poor and rural households.
(UN Global Compact & KPMG, 2016). In a recent article, CBInsights (2018) identified six key
While rural areas can be better connected by using areas where blockchain could disrupt the financial
digital services, cities face different challenges (SDG services sector:

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

1. Payments: by establishing a decentralized ledger then, during the Industrial Revolution, the secondary
for payments (e.g., Bitcoin), blockchain technology sector (manufacturing) attracted more and more
could facilitate faster payments at lower fees than workers, offering higher productivity and less exposure
banks; to weather-related agricultural yield fluctuations.
2. Clearance and settlement systems: distributed Over the last century, we have seen a transition from
ledgers can reduce operational costs and bring us manufacturing to the tertiary sector (services). This
closer to real-time transactions between financial transition, often referred to as deindustrialization, has
institutions; resulted from growing automation of manufacturing
3. Fundraising: Initial Coin Offerings are experimenting activities, increased wealth, and new needs for
with a new model of financing that unbundles immaterial goods to improve human welfare.
access to capital from traditional capital-raising Deindustrialization has been apparent even in low-
services and firms; income developing countries (with the exception of
4. Securities: by tokenizing traditional securities, such Asia), where it has been driven not by rising incomes or
as stocks, bonds, and alternative assets – and placing technological changes within a country’s borders, but
them on public blockchains – blockchain technology by, among other things, technological changes taking
could create more efficient, interoperable capital place elsewhere and affecting these countries through
markets; globalization and trade (Rodrik, 2016).
5. Loans and credit: by removing the need for
In the future, technological change and digital
gatekeepers in the loan and credit industry,
transformation will certainly improve productivity in
blockchain technology can provide lower interest
these sectors. However, there will also be structural
rates and make it more secure to borrow money;
implications for occupations and working hours.
6. Trade finance: by replacing the cumbersome,
Exponentially increasing computing power and
paper-heavy bills of lading in the trade finance
machine learning will give rise to autonomous machines
industry, blockchain technology can create more
with cognitive and decision-making abilities, which
transparency, security, and trust among trade
will have a disruptive impact on the workplace. On one
parties.
the hand, these developments will help to automatize a
Digitalization has already had a significant impact significant portion of daily working routines, providing
on global stock markets. In 2010, high-frequency and workers with more free time, increasing the wellbeing
algorithm trade accounted for 60–70% of trading in of the labor force, and creating more consumption
the USA. By 2017, J.P. Morgan reported that traditional of recreational services. On the other hand, many
traders represented a mere 10% of trading volume. low-skill jobs in the primary, secondary, and tertiary
More recently, machine learning and artificial sectors may become redundant in a future where
intelligence have entered the sector. In 2017, Wall Street artificial intelligence will effectively replace humans
had its first fully artificial-intelligence-powered Equity in performing cognitive tasks and some decision-
Trading Fund (ETF). In the first week of operations, making routines in the workplace. Some predict the
it outperformed the S&P 500 index. Remarkably, by disappearance of hundreds of millions of jobs. Robotics
August 2018 its shares rose by 20%. ETF operates and artificial intelligence alone could take away some
on the premise of IBM Watson, a supercomputer that 800 million jobs by 2030, with many of these in
processes and analyzes news and reports relating to emerging and developing countries (Manyika et al.,
6,000 American companies. Additionally, Watson’s 2017). The number of industrial robots is increasing
continual learning capabilities allows it to examine its rapidly across the world (Figure 24).
own performance; hence, the algorithm can learn from
Work plays an important role in providing individual
its mistakes (e.g., unprofitable transactions) to make
income, identity, societal status, and meaning. It is,
better decisions in the future (Zamagna, 2018). One of
therefore, critically important to address the risk of
the fastest growing technologies is “robo-advice”, which
an increasing number of workers being replaced by
uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to
machines, especially if opportunities to pursue other
“replace” traditional financial advisers in the provision
meaningful and income-generating occupations are
of investment advice to consumers. According to the
not offered. There is a danger that many workers will
World Bank, the value of assets under robo-advice
be displaced, and that only highly educated, well-to-
management was greater than US$400 billion in 2018
do professionals, and those in “last-mile” jobs, will be
and is expected to grow to almost US$1.5 trillion by
secure in their occupations (Free exchange, 2019).
2023.
Some argue that the focus should not be so much on
5.3.3 The Future of Work the loss of jobs (most jobs cannot be fully automated)
but on the transformation of jobs to the point of not
Throughout human history, there have been being recognizable (Fleming, 2019). Consequently,
fundamental shifts in the nature of work. At first, the it will be important to reinvent and reengineer jobs
primary sector (agriculture) occupied most people; to benefit society. Learning the dynamics of these

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

Figure 24. Estimated worldwide operational stock and supply of industrial robots since 2009, with a forecast for
2018–2021. Source: Data from IFR (2019).

transformations is key to enabling policy and decision incomes at home; the know-how for manufacturing is
makers to design coping and adaptation strategies also relatively easy to transfer across borders (including
that minimize the negative impact of the workplace from rich to poor countries); and manufacturing, in
transformation. Norway is a good example where the most cases, does not make immense demands on
risk of automation is said to be among the lowest in the skills (Rodrik, 2018). The new technologies change
OECD (Arntz et al., 2016). One reason for this is that this traditional model significantly in several ways,
Norway is more advanced than most in automation, so including in terms of skills required and the ease (or
many jobs have already been transformed to contain not) of know-how transfer. Developing countries face
a greater social component (Nedelkoska & Quintini, greater challenges when it comes to designing and
2018). implementing strategies to cope with these changes.
Historically, many economic sectors have become The literature suggests that the jobs most
obsolete, creating temporary unemployment that is vulnerable to being taken over by machines are low-
then absorbed by the rise of new sectors (Frankel, skill jobs centered on routine tasks (Acemoglu & Autor,
1955). The Digital Revolution will accelerate a decline 2011). Such jobs are prominent in the mobility sector
in low-skill jobs across sectors that is unlikely to (threatened by autonomous vehicles), on the office
be quickly absorbed by the market. This calls for floor (threatened by automatized decision making,
governance and forward-looking policies to buffer the such as for administrative and accounting tasks), and
impact of the digital transformation on the workplace in households (threatened by further automatization
and steer it in the direction of achieving SDG 8 (decent of household tasks). Up to half of all jobs are at risk of
work for all). An obvious response is to boost workers’ automatization in some mature economies (Frey et al.,
skills through education, but this faces challenges as 2016), and around two thirds in developing economies
it (i) takes time to retrain humans to fit the changed (World Bank, 2016). But the impact could be even more
reality of the workplace, (ii) requires substantial public far reaching, with machines taking over some high-
investment at a time when public finances are severely skill jobs centered on analytic and diagnostic tasks.
constrained by large debt burdens, and (iii) is subject This could, for example, include occupations such as
to uncertainty about what skills will still be in demand brokers, pharmacists, programmers, and data analysts.
in a world where many cognitive and decision tasks are
At the other end of the spectrum, jobs that require
being performed by machines.
perception and manipulation, creativity, inspiration,
The decline of low-skill jobs and their replacement and emotional bonding seem to be most secure (Frey
by automation across many sectors has some additional et al., 2016). Examples are teachers, nurses, social
consequences for many developing countries. The workers, scientists, actors, entertainers, politicians,
traditional development model which these countries civil society agents, managers, and leaders. Currently,
have used as an engine for growth is based on the those jobs constitute only a small fraction of the
following: cheap labor means that manufacturing and workforce. Therefore, it will likely be necessary to
domestic output is competitive and can easily be traded broaden our concept of contractual work to include
across borders, so it is not inhibited by demand and activities like child raising, care giving, community

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services, and voluntary social work. Such occupations downsides will have major impacts on inequality and
are deeply human in nature and so are unlikely to be social stability. With more research and more literature
taken over by machines; even if these occupations are focusing on what developing countries need to do to
assisted by machines (e.g., in care-giving occupations), face the huge challenges of tapping into this new
humans will likely continue to play the central role. revolution, some of the dire predictions will hopefully
These activities have always provided critical meaning give way to more optimistic prognoses. An increasingly
to individuals and are of high value to society, but they large body of literature focusing on the positive agenda
are mostly not rewarded as contractual work and of developing countries is starting to appear. A report
are still discounted with regard to societal status (in by the World Bank (2016) presents a cautiously
contrast to their societal value). optimistic outlook on the digital transformation and
the potential benefits for developing countries, but
The creation of a new service sector, remunerating
it also highlights the stark reality. According to this
voluntary, care-giving, and social work according to
report, the broader development benefits from the
their societal value could absorb redundant workers
Digital Revolution are far from being realized. This
from other shrinking sectors. It might also offer these
is an understatement. Some six billion people do not
newly absorbed workers an even greater sense of
have the high-speed Internet access required to benefit
identity, meaning, and belonging, in line with SDG 8.
from the digital transformation (see 4.2). For most of
However, it would require a substantial redistribution
the world’s population, Internet access is unaffordable
of economic income from other sectors to these
and inaccessible. Moreover, the necessary investment
activities, and it is likely that this would have to be
in infrastructure is currently beyond the means of
organized by governments or other public institutions.
many developing countries. And the governance that is
Therefore, it would require changing the capitalist
required to tap into this digital world with appropriate
economic model, which relies on private ownership
policies and regulations is often weak.
of production and private consumption. This could be
aided by the overall increase in wealth generation due
to expected large productivity gains from deploying
5.4 Decarbonization & Energy
autonomous machines. The key will be to channel some 5.4.1 Energy Systems
of this additional wealth to public rather than private
ownership, and to use it to fund the new service sector Energy systems have been decarbonizing since
as well as education and life-long learning. Policy the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The
proposals like a robot tax have already been developed replacement of traditional energy sources by coal
that aim to achieve this goal. eventually improved the overall efficiency of the
system and reduced carbon intensity (coal has less
In one way or another, most countries are becoming carbon than biomass per unit energy). Further
increasingly aware of the challenges and potential evolution toward oil and gas reduced yet again the
benefits of the Digital Revolution. Many are designing carbon intensity of energy, and the current rapid
strategies to mitigate the negative effects while also penetration of renewables, together with nuclear and
reaping the benefits of these new technologies. But large hydropower, contribute toward decarbonization.
many developing countries need support in order For example, natural gas has half the emissions of coal.
not to be excluded or marginalized from this great Thus, the trend is clear, although it is not fast enough to
transformation. Failure to address the potential

Box 9. Narrative for 2050: Decarbonization & Energy, Energy Access, Efficiency, Electrification,
Decent Services
The world has largely decarbonized, and this has been accompanied by universal access to clean, affordable
modern energy services. The seeds of this transition can be seen in rapid technology development and
new behaviors in key sectors, such as renewable energy, electric mobility, and zero-energy buildings. By
2030, greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by half compared to 2020, as all nations start to follow deep
decarbonization pathways toward net-zero emissions. Focus is on the provision of clean and environmentally
sustainable energy services, whereby energy supply is a combination of both centralized and decentralized
systems, with high energy efficiency standards being the norm everywhere. Together with behavioral change
and technological innovation, this leads to reduced energy demand and large savings on the energy supply
side. Moreover, there are reinforcing feedback loops enabled by government incentives and other dynamics;
for example, there is huge investment in sustainable, resilient, and efficient infrastructure, and there are
technological breakthroughs and cost decreases, sector coupling and digitalization, and lifestyle changes and
energy self-sufficiency.

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offset increases in demand. As a result, there have been Digital energy services could also allow consumers to
ever-growing greenhouse gas emissions. become more active participants in the energy system
(see section 5.5.2 on smart meters and devices). Smart
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased last
and positive-energy buildings would essentially not
year by more than 2%, which is in line with the
require any net energy from the grid (see section 5.5.2).
historical average rate during the past century and a
half. Decarbonization is comparatively slow at about In industry, many companies have a long history
0.3% per year. To meet the Paris Agreement and SDG of using digital technologies to improve safety and
7 targets, both efficiency and decarbonization have increase production. Further cost-effective energy
to increase rapidly. By mid-century, the global energy savings can be achieved through advanced process
system should be completely decarbonized, but this controls, and by coupling smart sensors and data
will require the share of renewables to double by 2030 analytics to predict equipment failure. Machine
while emissions halve. This all requires herculean learning, 3D printing, and connectivity could have even
efforts. Increasing the share of renewables, as well as greater impacts (see section 5.3).
nuclear energy in countries where it is acceptable, are
The oil and gas industries have long used digital
further steps in the right direction as they reduce the
technologies, notably in upstream processes, and
carbon intensity of energy.
significant potential remains for digitalization to
Furthermore, a shift toward renewables is also further enhance operations. Widespread use of digital
a shift toward smaller units, with large possibilities technologies could decrease production costs between
for technological learning and price reductions 10% and 20%, including through advanced processing
along the experience curves. For example, the cost of of seismic data, the use of sensors, enhanced reservoir
photovoltaics has declined by two orders of magnitude, modeling, and improved three-dimensional steering
and wind is today often the cleanest source of energy. for drilling (IEA, 2017; Odintsova et al., 2018).
Smaller units and decentralization need a higher degree
In the coal industry, digital technologies are
of interconnectedness of the system through electric
increasingly being used in geological modeling, process
(and gas) grids, together with rapid deployment of
optimization, automation, predictive maintenance, and
smart systems and digitalization. Electric mobility and
improvements to worker health and safety. However,
ever more efficient houses and industrial processes are
the overall impact of digitalization may be more modest
furthering this trend toward digitalization.
than in other sectors because deep decarbonization
Consequently, the energy sector has been an early would marginalize coal use without carbon capture
adopter of information technology systems, notably and storage (GEA, 2012).
in oil and gas, electricity, and heavy industry. Today,
In the power sector, digitalization has the potential
digital technologies can be found in all energy demand
to save around US$80  billion per year, or about 5%
and supply, helping to improve the safety, productivity,
of total annual power generation costs (IEA, 2017).
accessibility, and sustainability of energy systems
Digital technologies can help to reduce operating and
worldwide. Rapid advances in data, analytics, and
maintenance costs, improve power plant and network
connectivity are accelerating the digitalization of
efficiency, reduce unplanned outages and downtime,
energy, opening the door to new models of producing
and extend the operational lifetime of assets.
and consuming energy, while also raising new security
and privacy risks (IEA, 2017). Digitalization could fundamentally transform the
energy system by breaking down boundaries between
Transport is becoming increasingly electrified,
energy sectors, increasing flexibility, and enabling
smarter, and more connected, improving safety and
integration across systems. The electricity sector is at
efficiency. Digitalization could have its biggest impact
the heart of this transformation, because digitalization
on transport (see section 5.5.1), where connectivity
is blurring the distinction between generation and
and automation (alongside further electrification
consumption (Figure 25). Digitalization enables four
and shared vehicle use) could dramatically reshape
interrelated opportunities: (i) smart demand response
mobility by complementing public transport systems.
and increased system flexibility; (ii) greater integration
The overall net impacts on energy use are highly
of variable renewables; (iii) smart charging of electric
uncertain, because they hinge on the interplay between
vehicles to provide further grid flexibility; and (iv)
technology, policy, and behavior.
better coordination of distributed energy resources
In buildings, digitalization could cut energy use (e.g., rooftop solar photovoltaic panels and storage)
by about 10% by using real-time data to improve (IEA, 2017). Further examples are given in Box 10.
operational efficiency (IEA, 2017). For example, smart
However, the information and communications
thermostats can anticipate the behavior of occupants
technologies that make all these benefits possible also
(based on past experience) and use real-time weather
require ever more energy. As billions of new devices
forecasts to better predict heating and cooling needs.
become connected over the coming years, they will

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Figure 25. Possible steps in the digital transformation of the electricity system. The deployment of digital
technologies is creating a more interconnected and responsive electricity system, with the potential to help
increase flexibility, efficiency, and reliability. Source: IEA (2017).

Box 10. Digitalization, decentralization and open data can transform the power sector
By leveraging digitalization and data analytics to integrate decentralized renewable energy technologies,
utilities have new alternatives to grid extension, faulty transformers, and unprofitable connections. By
encouraging collaboration with decentralized renewable energy companies, utilities can find more cost-
effective ways of leveraging smart meters, storage, and distributed generation to enable reliable, affordable,
and universal energy access.
Based on policy targets and regulations, traditional energy planning often relies on expensive consulting
firms to conduct baseline studies of energy use, load forecasting, and generation requirements for future use.
This old style of energy planning for 10 – 20-year timelines forecasts future demand as well as how demand
will be met by central grids for the already connected. Moreover, this consultant-based approach is often led by
technical institutions and consultancies using a variety of software tools and proprietary data sets, tools, and
data that the governments who commission the work may not own or have the capacity to use.
Digitalization enables integrated planning that is dynamic, open, data-driven, and optimized to deliver
least-cost, fastest-path universal energy access. Affordable low- or no-cost modern tools (including the World
Bank’s Electrification Pathways, the University of California at Berkeley’s Grid Access Planning model, or the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Reference Electrification Model) use publicly available data to evaluate
the least-cost means for a regional or national power system to meet demand by concurrently modeling
generation, transmission, distribution, investments, and operational costs. Not only are these approaches
faster and more cost effective to execute, grid access planning analysis suggests that an electrification strategy
that fully integrates decentralized renewable energy technologies creates savings of 15% to 20%, compared to
traditional grid extension models, to supply the same number of customers.
Just as traditional planning tools must be adapted to meet the needs of low-energy-access countries,
traditional electrical grids and business models must evolve to deliver sustainable, universal and affordable
energy to all. Currently, most sub-Saharan African countries suffer grid inefficiencies that affect billions of
people every day, including transmission and distribution losses as high as 50% and service interruptions of
more than 500 hours per year. Altogether, hundreds of millions who are currently connected to power grids
fail to have reliable energy access.
Thanks to digitalization and decentralization, traditional utilities do not need to solve these problems
alone. Today, comparatively inexpensive next-generation-related digitized technologies, such as integrated
smart meters, predictive tools like Gridwatch (which uses cell phone charging outages to predict transmission
failure), and remote monitoring systems can help create an intelligent network that taps mini-grids or
networked rooftop systems to deal with distribution issues, transmission outages, and demand response.
Switch, sectionalizer, and recloser automatization in medium voltage networks can drastically reduce the

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duration and extension of outages by isolating the fault and restoring the system. Integrated DRE technologies
can improve the reliability of connections, reduce grid losses, and improve power quality and overall utility
performance, while simultaneously creating sustainable businesses on both sides of the wires.
To achieve this, a process that guarantees system-level coordination between energy sources, such as
a distributed system operator, can orchestrate the interaction between the physical grid, the distributed
resources, customers, third-party providers, and the transactions between them. Technology platforms that
enable data harmonization in the digital environment are needed. The management of this amount, and type,
of information will require high privacy and security standards; most likely, it will involve anonymizing and
sharing customer data between solar-home systems, mini-grid and grid systems, while also maintaining
alignment with General Data Protection Regulations.
Digitalization, decentralization, and open data do not mean that national grids will be going out of business
any time soon; rather, there are numerous new business opportunities that include use fees for sub-concessions,
shared incentives for new connections, and reduction of capital expenditures by relying on decentralized
renewable energy technologies for network support. There is a new future for national grids in countries with
low energy access: these grids can act as “base stations” in a network of networks that can interconnect many
points of generation, storage, and consumption necessary for providing universal energy access. By engaging
directly with the companies that provide the digital, decentralized, and data-driven technology, utilities can
help identify the critical path technology, processes, and regulatory interventions needed to transform their
national energy systems into robust networks that deliver reliable, affordable, and universal access for all.

require electricity and will drive growth in demand and processes producing and using vast volumes of
for – – and energy use by – – data centers and data data, questions remain around how best to balance
transmission network services. Data centers and the risks and opportunities of data-driven solutions.
networks together account for around 2% of global Digitalizing traditional energy infrastructure will
electricity use. Sustained gains in energy efficiency require careful management, given the inherent limits
could keep demand growth largely in check over to interoperability.
the next few years (IEA, 2018a), and they may even
Policy and market design are vital to steering
decrease energy use through efficiency gains of
digitally enhanced energy systems onto efficient,
new devices (Grubler et al., 2018). Over the longer
secure, accessible, and sustainable development
term, information and communication energy use is
pathways. For example, digitalization can assist in
uncertain. Clear policies and standards need to offset
providing electricity to the roughly one billion people
the historical tendency of demand growth resulting
who still lack access to it (IEA, 2018b). New digital
from efficiency improvements. Clearly, demand
tools can promote sustainability; for example, satellites
growth arising from the efficiency of new devices and
can verify greenhouse gas emissions, and devices can
equipment is desirable for decent access to energy
track air pollution at the neighborhood level.
services in the developing parts of the world (GEA,
2012). While there is no simple roadmap to show how an
increasingly digitalized energy world will look in the
Although digitalization can bring many positive
future, the IEA (2017) outlines 10 “no-regrets” policy
benefits, it can also make energy systems more
actions that governments can take to prepare:
vulnerable to cyberattacks. Cyberattacks are becoming
easier and cheaper to organize, and the growth of 1. Build digital expertise within their staff
the Internet of Things is increasing the “cyber-attack 2. Ensure appropriate access to timely, robust, and
surface” in energy systems. Privacy and data ownership verifiable data
are also major concerns for consumers, especially 3. Build flexibility into policies to accommodate new
as more detailed data are collected from a growing technologies and developments
number of connected devices and appliances. At the 4. Experiment, including through “learning-by-doing”
same time, aggregated and anonymized individual pilot projects
energy use data can improve understanding of energy 5. Participate in broader inter-agency discussions on
systems, such as load profiles, and help lower costs for digitalization
individual consumers. 6. Focus on the broader, overall system benefits
7. Monitor the energy impacts of digitalization on
All energy sector stakeholders have a role to play
overall energy demand
in enhancing the digital resilience and security of an
8. Incorporate digital resilience by design into
increasingly connected energy system. With solutions
research, development, and product manufacturing

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9. Provide a level playing field to allow a variety of The widespread deployment of sensor technologies
companies to compete and serve consumers better is increasing the volume of data available for analysis.
10. Learn from others, including both positive case In a recent review paper on big data and climate change,
studies and more cautionary tales. Hassani, et al. (2019) produced a framework for how
big data can be, and is being, used in climate change
5.4.2 Climate studies (Figure 26). They see the primary roles for big
Clearly, the impact of the Digital Revolution on the data as observation and monitoring, understanding,
energy, transport, and production and consumption predicting, and optimizing. Analyzing such large data
sectors could have significant positive consequences sets is computationally complex and demanding.
for climate change mitigation. Reduced greenhouse As the volume of data increases exponentially, the
gas emissions from a more efficient and increasingly need for concomitant advances in data storage and
renewables-based energy sector, rising uptake of computational architecture and power cannot be
electric vehicles, and a more efficient and less wasteful underestimated (Fan et al., 2014).
manufacturing sector will go a long way to ensuring Blockchain is an emerging digital technology
an increasingly decarbonized world, as called for by platform that offers a promising contribution to climate
the SDGs and the Paris Agreement. Similarly, a more action. In a recent report, Navigating Blockchain and
technology-driven, intensified, high-yielding, and Climate Action, the Climate Ledger Initiative (CLI, 2019)
efficient agriculture and land use sector, with improved identified three areas where blockchain technologies
water management, will help reduce emissions. Smart could play a role: (i) next-generation registries and
buildings, infrastructure, and cities will significantly tracking systems, as the decentralized nature of the
decrease energy demand and associated climate Paris Agreement and its governance structure requires
impacts. new approaches to registries and tracking systems
One of the most significant advances technology to handle heterogeneous rulesets for accounting and
has brought to climate science and climate change reporting and to enable trusted, networked carbon
mitigation is the development of advanced sensor markets; (ii) digitizing measurement, reporting, and
technologies. Access to accurate, real-time, and precise verification, facilitating access to carbon markets or
location environmental data is critical for both climate other results-based finance schemes, and transforming
monitoring and mitigation efforts. Smart sensors are corporate supply chains toward more transparency
becoming ubiquitous in almost every sector relevant and accuracy on climate and sustainability impacts of
for climate change: they can measure CO2 and methane goods produced and sourced; and (iii) decentralized
emissions from the energy and agricultural sectors, access to clean energy and finance, with blockchain
and pollution from the manufacturing and transport systems emerging as the backbone of new decentralized
sectors. In a recent landmark study, researchers, using markets for clean energy empowering individual
a range of advanced sensor technologies mounted “prosumers” to produce and store their own renewable
on drones, aircraft, and cars, measured methane energy and trade with their neighbors.
emissions from the USA oil and gas industry supply The Digital Revolution has enormous capacity to
chain, finding that emissions were ~60% higher educate and influence the public on issues related
than the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to climate change. The power of the Internet, and
estimates (Alvarez et al., 2018). The authors stated: particularly social media, to mobilize citizens is already
“These data, and the methodology used to obtain them, clearly evident. This power is increasingly being used
could improve and verify international inventories of by governments, businesses, and special interest
greenhouse gases and provide a better understanding groups to “nudge” citizens and consumers to change
of mitigation efforts outlined by the Paris Agreement.” their behaviors. While this has considerable upsides by
They added: “Substantial emissions reductions are encouraging people to be more sustainable and “climate
feasible through rapid detection of the root causes of aware”, especially when it comes to understanding the
high emissions and deployment of less failure-prone impact of their behavior and consumption patterns
systems.” Advanced satellite technologies are also on the environment, there are associated problems
playing a role in climate monitoring. The initial Landsat due to the spread of misinformation or increased
program (with Landsat 9 due for deployment in 2020) consumerism.
monitors a range of climate-related activities, such
as glacier and ice sheet melt, wildfires, deforestation, Although the Digital Revolution undoubtedly
urbanization, and so on. Methane-SAT, due for launch has the potential to provide huge climate benefits as
in 2021, is designed to continuously map and precisely outlined above, there is also a potential downside.
measure methane emissions almost anywhere on the With more than 25 billion connected devices in 2019
planet, making it possible to “see” emissions in places (Abdelmohsen et al., 2015), growing to an estimated
that are difficult to track today. 75 billion by 2025 (Figure 27), the increasing energy
demands of digitalization cannot be overlooked.

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

Figure 26. Framework of big data in climate change studies. Source: Adapted from Hassani et al. (2019).

Figure 27. Expected number of connected devices to the Internet. The data are obtained from recent reports
developed by Cisco and Ericsson. The reports discuss the expected growth in the number of connected devices by
2020 due to the introduction of the machine-to-machine market. Source: Abdelmohsen et al. (2015), https://arxiv.
org/abs/1506.06216.

Overall, the digital economy is estimated to account Stabilizing the climate in accordance with the Paris
for about 7% of the world’s electricity consumption, Agreement presents a major challenge, because it
and this is forecast to rise to 12% by 2020, with a means that all emissions need to decline to net-zero
projected annual growth rate of 7% (Morley et al., by mid-century. But even this would not be enough,
2018). The energy consumption of the Bitcoin network as the world has already gone beyond 1°C increase
already exceeds that of some countries (de Vries, in global mean temperature compared to the pre-
2018). Although some have argued that increasing industrial period. So, there is only 0.5°C to go to the
digitalization may be unsustainable from an energy, Paris temperature limit, meaning that some net-
and hence climate, perspective (Røpke, 2012), others negative emissions will be needed beyond 2050 when
have emphasized that energy efficiencies and low net-zero would be achieved. Afforestation and carbon
energy demand resulting from digitalization can help capture and storage in conjunction with sustainable
achieve the Paris climate targets (Grubler et al., 2018). biomass are possibilities to achieve negative emissions
(namely, resulting in net removal of carbon from the
atmosphere). Digitalization can play a key role in this

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Box 11. Narrative for 2050: Food, Biosphere & Water, Sustainable Intensification, Biodiversity,
Forests, Oceans, Healthy Diets, Nutrients
The 2050 vision requires the sustainable use of land that provides sufficient and healthy food for all and
supports global biodiversity. By 2030, global agricultural productivity is increased through sustainable
intensification of the agricultural sector with the adoption of agro-ecologic elements and better functioning of
agriculture markets. At the same time, food waste and loss are significantly reduced. The agricultural demands
for freshwater are also reduced, and the expansion of agricultural land has halted to preserve remaining
biodiversity and enhance the resilience of carbon sinks. Improved management of artificial fertilizers greatly
reduces nutrient pollution of marine and freshwater ecosystems. Hunger and malnutrition are eliminated,
and there is year-round universal access to clean, safe, and nutritious food. Worldwide, diets are significantly
healthier, implying reduced reliance on meat. This means that food production has changed its resource base
to some extent by 2030 and more distinctly by 2050. With new innovative approaches, the agro-structure
changes so that it is no longer as resource intensive as it is today. Food waste and food loss can be significantly
reduced through more localized distribution. Fish stocks and other marine resources are sustainably managed,
and levels of marine pollution significantly reduced, with improvements to the health of marine ecosystems.
Taken together, these changes have allowed biodiversity loss to be dramatically reduced and often brought to a
definite halt. Food systems and other anthropogenic land and marine use serves to store carbon and enhance
biodiversity.

direction, as discussed in the next section on food, management. This allows farmers to optimize
biosphere, and water. returns while minimizing resource inputs. GPS-
enabled autonomous farm machinery can operate
5.5 Food, Biosphere & Water 24/7, reducing labor inputs and minimizing planting
and harvesting costs, and even determining optimal
5.5.1 Agriculture and Food Systems harvest conditions based on plant characteristics
One of the greatest challenges of the sustainable measured in the field. Smart sensors, often using drone
development agenda is how to feed a growing technology, can measure soil and plant characteristics
population without additional environmental (moisture content, nutrient loads, organic matter,
degradation and deforestation, while maintaining trace elements), thereby enabling more efficient use of
biodiversity, ecosystem services, and water resources, fertilizers, pesticides, and water.
and providing climate mitigation through the provision However, precision agriculture does not call into
of carbon sinks. question pesticide and herbicide use. It works by
Agriculture clearly needs to become more efficient refining current practices and does not encourage
in new and sustainably “smart” ways. At the same the exploration of alternatives. This is what scientists
time, food waste needs to be minimized or eliminated. call “technological lock-in” (Reboud & Bohan, 2019).
In affluent societies especially, food waste is a major It does not prepare us for farming that incorporates
challenge. Roughly one third of the food produced new, more ecological or sustainable practices, nor for
in the world for human consumption every year, the development of more sustainable systems richer in
amounting to approximately 1.3 billion tons, gets lost biodiversity and higher in resilience.
or wasted. Industrialized and developing countries A variety of biodiversity-based land management
dissipate roughly the same quantities of food (670 and techniques can be used in “working lands,” including
630 million tons respectively). Food losses and waste agroforestry, silvopasture, diversified farming, and
amount to roughly US$680 billion in industrialized ecosystem-based forest management, to ensure
countries and US$310 billion in developing countries. sustainable production of food and fiber (Kremen
Every year, consumers in rich countries waste almost & Merenlender, 2018). The Digital Revolution can
as much food (222 million tons) as the entire net food leverage these approaches. Measurements of system
production of sub-Saharan Africa (230 million tons; performance across all the dimensions of sustainability
see Gustavsson et al., 2011). would enable the transition to holistic agriculture
Technology-driven precision agriculture, which (Figure 28). The Digital Revolution can enable us
combines geomorphology, satellite imagery, global to appreciate aspects of a system that we know are
positioning, and smart sensors, enables enormous important, but which we currently do not properly
efficiency and productivity increases. Taken together, recognize and value but definitely would once they are
these technologies provide farmers with a decision gone (Reboud & Bohan, 2019).
support system, based in real time, for whole farm

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Figure 28. Digital technologies can support citizen science for SDG monitoring and implementation. Earth
observation and land use validation apps help investigate and reduce the uncertainties in global land cover data
via in situ volunteered geographical data collection through crowdsourcing. From left to right: “Help science by
sorting pictures in Picture Pile”. Source: www.geo-wiki.org; “Select the land cover type for a point in FotoQuest
Go”. Source: www.fotoquest-go.org; “Find your perfect spot with City Oases”. Source: www.cityoases.eu.

Development of higher yielding, pest-resistant plant These tools have revolutionized biological science
varieties that are suited to a wide range of environmental and there are no visible limits to their full potential.
conditions will be required. The role of biotechnology They are likely to transform genetically modified
in crop development has been the subject of debate, organisms and create new organisms with heritable
and widespread moratoria, for decades. Digitalization traits that nature would have never been able to
technologies will further escalate the controversies produce. These tools could enable us to cure cancer
with the emergence of synthetic biology. However, it is and to create laboratory plants and animals. They
hard to imagine a scenario in which these genetically could transform traditional agriculture, create new
modified crops do not in one form or another become laboratory farming practices, and help find new
part of the solution. Yet, it is equally hard to imagine ways to leverage sustainable agriculture, even if they
a scenario in which these genetically modified crops are not “organic” or “ecological” in the strict sense,
have not been tested in new forms to counterbalance by leveraging our capacity to enhance the natural
various risks. In this way, totally new techno-bio- biodiversity of ecosystems with hybrid approaches.
social-cultural solutions will need to be developed; at
Fully automated high-intensity glasshouse
the same time, societal acceptance of these solutions
agriculture has been shown to dramatically increase
will need to be secured in order for these innovations
crop yields while decreasing water, pesticide, and
to be implemented.
fertilizer use (on a per kilogram produced basis; see, e.g.,
A possibly more acceptable future approach utilizes Smith, 2011). However, they are big energy consumers,
synthetic biology and targeted genetic technologies, which calls for large efficiency improvements.
such as CRISPR-enabled gene editing (clustered-
Arguably, the world could feed the projected
regularly-interspaced-short-palindromic-repeats
population without radical changes to current
technology is a simple, powerful tool for editing
agricultural practices if food waste can be minimized
genomes). This could transform traditional agriculture,
or eliminated. Digital technologies will contribute to
create new laboratory farming practices, and help find
minimizing these losses through increased efficiencies
new ways to leverage complementary agro-ecological
in supply chains, better shipping and transit systems,
approaches (Batra, 2018; Biotechnology Inovation
and improved refrigeration. Even simple technologies,
Organization, 2019; Mackelprang, 2018).

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such as mobile apps (e.g., Flashfood,11 Food Rescue 5.5.2 Forest Conservation and Restoration
US,12 No Food Waste13) can facilitate more efficient
Forests play an important role in the provision of
distribution of food to those in need, ensuring that food
ecosystem services and the mitigation of climate change.
that would otherwise be wasted can play a significant
Significantly, more forest cover is lost through clearing
role.
for agriculture than from forest harvesting for timber.
Advances in food manufacturing, through 3D printing It is hoped that the further development of synthetic
and “artificial” synthetic foodstuffs, has the potential building materials and paper will reduce the demand
to relieve pressure on conventional agriculture, on forest products, and intensification of agriculture
particularly large-scale animal grazing. Biorefineries should reduce the rates of forest clearing, while novel
already exist for the manufacture of meat and vegetable technologies support monitoring and protection of
substitutes. Overcoming the public perception of quality forest areas. One of the roles of the emerging Digital
and health risks of these alternative food sources will Revolution is to conserve and restore nature; this will
be a challenge. “Vertical farms” or “city lab farms” are involve leveraging the value of standing forests in the
part of the Digital Revolution, since they are built on face of other economic uses, such as agriculture (Nobre
highly automated computer-controlled platforms and et al., 2016; Watson et al., 2018).
use LED lightening, automated irrigation, temperature
For example, an innovative program is already
controls, monitoring, and nutrients administration
under discussion in the Brazilian Amazon to apply
(Crawford, 2018). The produce is close to consumers,
new high tech to the industrial use of biodiversity.
long-distance transport is avoided, and carbon
The “Amazonia Third Way/Amazonia 4.0” (Nobre
emissions reduced, and they also avoid the drawbacks
et al., 2016) aims at developing a socially inclusive,
caused by pest controls, nitrification byproducts
biodiversity-driven “green economy” by harnessing
(nitrates and nitrous oxides), and stormwater runoff.
nature’s value through physical, digital, and biological
Urban lab farms also increase the natural capital of
technologies. Such technologies increasingly and
cities. Although they will never substitute farming,
profitably harness biological and biomimetic assets
such farms could provide a significant contribution.
across many industries, from pharmaceuticals to
Moreover, they would certainly contribute to making
energy, food, cosmetics, materials, and mobility. A key
cities more diverse, interesting, and greener; if city lab
component of this program is the “Amazonian Creative
farms team up with schools, they could also enrich the
Labs,”16 which is designed to generate sustainable
educational curricula through introductory courses in
high-tech solutions, in collaboration with Amazonian
biology and agriculture. However, a cautious view is
people and based on their eco-systemic resources.
that lab farms will never be able to provide a significant
The objective is to enable leapfrogging from extractive
amount of food. They are expensive to build, use a lot
and low-income, low-value-added agriculture models
of energy for lighting and climate control, and are more
to state-of-the-art solutions that add value to existing
expensive than standard farming (Foley, 2018).
biodiversity-based value chains by exploring new
Technology can also enhance food traceability, models, including those involving high-end genomics.
strengthening the role of certification and agreements The success of such initiatives could contribute to
that aim for environmentally and socially just several SDGs, provide value for the standing forest, and
agricultural production and waste management.14 The benefit the local economy.
Digital Revolution can enable a just transformation
The Digital Revolution could also help the diffusion
of agricultural and food systems, ending the frequent
of knowledge about established and very successful
trend of extreme land concentration in the hands of
restoration projects, such as the Instituto Terra17 and
a few actors. It could enhance governments and the
the Working Landscapes (Kremen & Merenlender,
capacity of NGOs’ extension and outreach programs
2018) initiatives. Biodiversity-based land management
to reach multiple scales of farming and agroforestry
practices are more knowledge than technology
activities. To help such programs, digitalization can
intensive. They are well adapted to empower local
disseminate information and provide support networks
communities to manage their natural resources
with access to advice and knowledge-intensive inputs.
(Kremen & Merenlender, 2018). The impact could
The use of networking, virtual and augmented realities
be high across regions where the full transition to
(Bailenson, 2018), and games15 could make a significant
industrial clearing and exploitation of forests has
contribute to this (see also Box 6).
not yet happened, as well as in regions where the
consequences of unsustainable exploitation have
11 https://www.flashfood.com/ manifested and restoration offers a solution. In addition
12 https://foodrescue.us
13 https://www.nofoodwaste.in/ 16 https://believe.earth/en/carlos-nobre-the-
14 https://trase.earth/ amazonian-intelligence/
15 https://gamesforsustainability.org/ 17 http://www.institutoterra.org/eng/index.php

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to the ecological impact of sustainable practices, these exciting yet different possibilities for natural resource
initiatives can provide employment. management.
Other digital technologies that are emerging as Augmented reality technologies, especially light
potentially useful tools for management of natural detection and ranging (LiDAR), are bridging the gap
resources include those of extended reality (XR), which between the global scale of climate change and the
is an umbrella concept encompassing technologies of local scale at which the changes in the biosphere can
varying degrees of immersion, such as augmented reality be measured. Laser scanning data is processed to
and virtual reality. The technologies themselves are render 3D reconstructions of topography, terrain, and
not new, but their popularity has grown exponentially vegetation structure. Global trends can be correlated
since virtual reality (VR) went mainstream in 2016. with observed changes in biodiversity at the scale
Somewhat slower to take off, augmented reality (AR) where it matters (typically a resolution of 5 meters)
is expected to be the dominating extended reality throughout landscapes. An early study demonstrated
technology from the 2020s. The two technologies offer

Figure 29. Differences in microclimate conditions across a gradient in forest structure. (A) Principal components
analysis (PCA) showing how vegetation structure metrics differ between mature/old-growth forest sites and
plantations. The ellipses represent 68% of the data, assuming a normal distribution in each category (plantation
and mature/old-growth). (B) Three-dimensional LiDAR-generated images of plantation forests [(i) side view; (ii)
overhead view] and old-growth forests [(iii) side view; (iv) overhead view] at the Andrews Forest. (C and D)
Results from generalized linear mixed models show the modeled relationship between forest structure [PC1, the
first component of a PCA on forest structure variables (A)] and the residuals from an elevation-only model of mean
monthly maximum from April to June (C) and mean monthly minimum from April to June (D) after accounting
for the effects of elevation. Closed circles represent 2012 and open circles represent 2013. Maximum monthly
temperatures (C) decreased by 2.5°C (95% confidence interval, 1.7° to 3.2°C) and observed minimum temperatures
(D) increased by 0.7°C (0.3° to 1.1°C) across the observed structure gradient from plantation to old-growth forest.
Source: Frey et al. (2016).

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that individual LiDAR metrics effectively distinguished types of virtual reality experiences, such as different
between plantation sites and mature, old-growth production formats and degrees of interactivity, have
forest sites (Frey et al., 2016), mapping the topography different impacts on the viewer. Moreover, only a limited
and vegetation structure in a way that correlates with number of studies have been undertaken to understand
microclimate conditions (Figure 29). LiDAR provides the lasting effects of virtual reality experiences in
data to compute 3D reconstructions of the surface of general and on natural resource management in
the Earth, enabling the characterization of habitats, particular. Possible applications are virtual tourism
water cycles, carbon cycles, and changes in biodiversity. in parks, and the promotion of knowledge about
This precise information enables us to build three- nature and wild animals, thereby avoiding the carbon
dimensional time-dependent analyses and forecasts emissions of long-distance travel.
of physical parameters using models built from first
In augmented reality, digital 3D objects are added
principles, and to model the surface of the Earth as
to real-time video renders and presented on devices
a system linked to climate and oceans. As oceans
such as mobile phones or tablets. By being presented
have traditionally been of critical national security
on a screen, augmented reality invites real-time, onsite
importance for geopolitical and commercial reasons,
dialogues. The 3D elements can be triggered by a
the deployment of advanced digital technologies has
designated real-world landscape, either indoors or
been more integrated and coherent than in agriculture
outdoors, or by props such as mats. The technology can
and ecology. We discuss this further in the next section
thus be useful for creating and communicating visions
as a case study.
of partially or fully imagined areas or elements. An
In virtual reality, the use of a headset, often early example of using augmented reality technology
accompanied by headphones, immerses the user fully for visualizing environmental data was presented by
in the visual presentation, which can be in the form Ghadirian and Bishop (2002). In more recent examples,
of video, photos or computer-generated imagery augmented reality has been used to educate people on
(CGI). Virtual reality has been found to elicit feelings the importance of animal conservation and on park
of empathy in the viewers (Herrera et al., 2018), to landscapes. In the continued development of AR, and
facilitate learning (Bailenson, 2018), and to impact indeed virtual reality, we may see how applications
behaviors (Bailey et al., 2015). However, different become better connected to other digital elements,

Table 3. Novel developments in ocean technology

Observation technology • automated observations of subsurface ocean temperature, salinity,

currents, and increasingly biochemical parameters by the ARGO system*
autonomous and automatic underwater vehicles to observe seafloors,
underwater structures, and lifeforms
• new hydroacoustic and optical sensors increase the ability to automatically
observe phyto-, zooplankton, and fish
• platooning and swarms of autonomous underwater vehicles
• space-based remote observation of these parameters and others (e.g.,
surface waves) on rapid time scales
Computer-based modeling, • three-dimensional time-dependent analyses and forecasts of physical
analysis, and exploration parameters using models built from first principles
• analyses and forecasts of biogeochemical parameters (e.g., phytoplankton)
using emerging observational capabilities combined with physical
parameters listed above
• immersive and 3D visualization for computer-aided exploration
Assistive methods and tools • specialized languages for modeling and automatic code generation allow
for model and analysis integration of knowledge across different disciplines
implementation • automation and documentation of scientific workflows through executable
notebooks support the digitalization of workflows
Data lifecycle support • decentralized cloud data storage
infrastructure and methods • digitalization of data processing and storage to foster traceability of
scientific results
• adoption of FAIR principles** improve access to and rescue of scientific data
*Broad-scale global array of temperature/salinity profiling floats, known as ARGO: http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/About_
Argo.html.
**https://www.go-fair.org/fair-principles/

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such as sensors, to enable analysis and visualization of store shelves, a large and growing fraction of which
real-time data. arrive from far flung corners of the globe.
The Digital Revolution in information and Immersive computer-aided exploration enables
communication technology could help provide the exploration of underwater habitats and the seafloors.
tools to inform the public about the positive attributes This exploration is interactively augmented by
of new technologies and to engage their support ex contextualized information, like salinity and
ante. Information and communication technology can temperature, providing underwater access to more
underpin the proper identification and traceability of scientists (Figure 30). Immersive technology, such as
products, whether produced by traditional farming, 3D and 2D graphics, supports education, outreach,
novel high-tech and hybrid sustainable practices, and consulting, provides customized and interactive
or organic methods. A well-informed public could visualizations for stakeholders to support the
shift consumption choices toward new, high-tech, understanding of natural processes, and accelerates
low-impact or sustainable production, which would their decision making by enabling instant feedback on
decrease our industrial footprint. their scenarios.

5.5.3 The Digital Ocean Software engineering methods help scientists keep
track of the codes and code changes in their models
The ocean, long a mysterious and foreboding realm, is and analyses. This supports the quality, reuse, and
becoming ever more transparent and accessible with integration of the models, which in turn enables users
the advent of digitalization. This trend promises great to reduce costs and reaction times when confronted
advantages for society, as well as associated challenges. by new challenges because they are able to provide
Notable developments are listed in Table 3 (see also on-time assessments and solutions (Figure 31).
Figure 30). Automation and documentation of scientific workflows
These developments in digitalization have direct complement this advantage, because executable
practical application in science, economics, and notebooks, like Jupyter, make scientific work more
education, such as for ship routing and the associated transparent and transferable. This has two major
impacts on the economics of the marine transportation benefits: (i) it improves acceptance of results in the
system. Greater efficiencies in this arena will community and beyond, and (ii) it reduces the time it
increasingly be reflected in the prices of products on takes to apply specific workflows to new data. These

Figure 30. Coastal Intelligence: Digital acquisition of data on many ocean variables with advanced approaches.
Source: NOAA (www.oceanservice.noaa.gov).

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

Figure 31. Digitized open science processes and workflows. Source: Tine Pape/©EXC The Future Ocean.

methods therefore support the proliferation of science- reuse data, reexamine findings, and show when and
based forecasting systems. how data was modified. This limits fraud and, therefore,
increases confidence in observation data and results.
Efforts around the data lifecycle and the adoption of
the FAIR principles support the decentralized storage Other developments include the rapidly improving
of research data and the accessibility of data from any ability to forecast fish behavior and abundance. This
research computer. The lifecycle enables scientists to has positive implications for efficient management of

Figure 32. Marine environmental DNA (eDNA) sampled in adjacent ocean and bay habitats shows that DNA stays
close to where the species are. Source: Graphic courtsey Mark Stoeckle, The Rockefeller University (https://phe.
rockefeller.edu/barcode/blog/nycnj-aquatic-vertebrate-edna-project/).

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fisheries and oceans, which also greatly improves the and use of hypersonic torpedo-like devices is in its
ability to protect sensitive bycatch species like marine infancy, but it parallels the development of controllable
mammals, sharks, and seabirds. However, the potential missiles decades ago, with all of the concomitant issues
for illegal exploitation of such improved abilities leads of governance and social acceptability. Dimensions
to questions of governance. The downside is a higher of concern include maritime safety issues and
risk of over-exploitation of the sea and accelerated fish cybersecurity, as ships are increasingly networked or
depletion. autonomous and automatized, which increases their
susceptibility to hacking.
Emerging digital technologies promise to bring
additional dimensions. DNA barcoding has been shown A final example of broad impacts emerging from
to be capable of identifying fish sold in restaurants the digitalization of the ocean comes from space-
and thus to expose fraudulent substitution of less based remote sensing of ocean salinity. Although still
expensive species or the sale of restricted species. in its infancy, time-delayed significant correlation
This same capability can be used to identify sea food, between patterns of high salinity in the ocean basins
which is wasted, thereby providing information useful and increased rainfall over land has been observed.
for optimizing the supply chain. Further, emerging This leads to the possibility of significantly improved
environmental DNA analysis techniques promise seasonal climate forecasts, which in turn have
to detect the presence and absence of fish and other implications for agriculture, severe weather, and related
species based on tissue shed as fish swim through economic factors (Schmitt, 2017). More real-time
the water, and this may lead to remote sensing of fish information regarding fish species, fishing practices,
abundance (Figure 32). The advent of space-based and sustainability may help consumers makes choices
radars holds the promise of tracking ships engaging that reinforce the SDGs (see sections 5.3.1).
in illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, even
when ship operators turn off mandatory automated 5.5.4 Water
identification systems. All of these have immediate The deployment of digital technologies has the potential
and emerging implications for global food security to deliver significant outcomes in the water sector.
and promise to bring objective information to bear on Virtual representation of the water system will enable
governance of the high seas. situational awareness or near-real-time surface water
As nations increasingly compete for resources flow and quality monitoring, as well as monitoring of
(e.g., minerals, oil, fish) and rights (e.g., passage) in a groundwater levels (recharge vs. abstractions) and
changing world, national security is also affected by the quality assessment and control. These benefits promise
increasingly transparent digital ocean. For example, solutions to many of the challenges and environmental
nations large and small operate fleets of submarines externalities faced by the sector (Figure 33). The water
to patrol regions of economic interest, and these sector still lags behind other industries in integrating
operations are increasingly dependent on advanced new, smart technologies in the water ecosystem. But
digital depictions of the environment. The deployment digitalization is expected to increase with the adoption

Figure 33. Maps of (a) turbidity (water clarity), (b) dissolved organic carbon, and (c) chlorophyll-a in the San
Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary’s Grizzly Bay and Suisun Marsh in April 2014, derived from remote-sensing reflectance
data from NASA’s airborne Portable Remote Imaging Spectrometer (PRISM) instrument. Source: NASA/JPL-Caltech
(2016).

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of advanced technological capabilities, improvements Risk analysis and disaster preparedness are
in the collection capabilities of information from also areas on the rise. Water utilities and municipal
remote devices, and developments in correlating that authorities are exploring new ways to become more
information across diverse systems. resilient (Figure 34). For example, IBM has partnered
with the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)
Digitalization has the power to help water and
to publish a Disaster Resiliency Scorecard,18 which
wastewater utilities address many of the challenges
over 200 cities worldwide have used to assess several
they face. This includes extending the life of aging assets;
aspects critical to timely and efficient anticipation,
reducing leakages, attacks, or other abnormalities in
mitigation, preparation, and recovery in relation to
the distribution network; improving water quality
the effects of a hazard. This initiative covers policy and
monitoring, service levels, and reliability of supply;
planning, and the engineering, organizational, financial,
promoting water conservation; and increasing revenue
social, and environmental aspects of disaster resilience.
through operational efficiencies. Successes can be
Information flows between actors and within actor
recorded in improvements in event response times,
networks, both in top-down (through early warning
increases in work reutilization, and even reductions
systems) and bottom-up (through citizen science
in energy use across the water treatment and
and citizen observatories) directions, have proven
distribution network. Another likely area of progress
critical to speed up responses across all phases of the
in the foreseeable future is video imaging and pattern
disaster risk cycle (preparedness, mitigation, recovery)
recognition enabled by cognitive or augmented
(Buytaert et al., 2014). Digitalization and information
technologies. These technologies will be particularly
technologies are already playing, and will increasingly
applicable to real-time water quality monitoring,
play, an essential role in enabling real-time information
leak detection, and asset assessment management
flows and early warning to reduce impacts from water-
in general. The wealth of data will enable service
related risks and to build resilience and adaptation to
providers to use predictive analytics to spot problems
climate change (Giordano et al., 2017).
and proactively send crews out to prevent or solve
problems, such as by replacing water distribution lines Private sector infrastructure delivery is a promising
long before small leaks become catastrophic events. space to examine best practices and lessons learned.
In this area, advances in the energy sector are worthy
Digitalization will improve wastewater treatment
of replication. Water utilities can benefit from the
and reuse, distinguishing between green, blue, and
lessons learned and the established best practices. The
gray water, and understanding sources and types of
potential for leapfrogging is real, given that technology
pollution. In apartment houses, digitalization could
support the proliferation of onsite treatment, reuse of
wastewater – especially in new high-rise buildings – 18 https://www.unisdr.org/campaign/resilientcities/
and gray water recycling. home/toolkit

Figure 34. Advanced weather and channel flow data shared via instant communications between water
management agencies is critical to California’s Central Valley during an active flood season. Source: US Army Corps
of Engineers (2013).

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has evolved and prices for smart devices have decreased to keep up with the talent demands resulting from
while their functionality has increased. digitalization. This will continue to be a challenge in
countries where literacy levels are still very low and
Green innovation in agriculture is another emerging
the capacity of most people to make informed choices
area in which digitalization is making huge progress.
from smart devices is still largely inadequate. In Africa,
From a water perspective, weather data can be used
for example, the development of smart cities will
to predict the amount of rain, so farmers can better
hinge on technological readiness, and on the human
manage the application of farm chemicals to minimize
and institutional capacity of its cities to produce and
pollution of aquifers and surface water systems used
handle big data. In more advanced societies, customer
as drinking-water sources. Meanwhile, smart meters,
expectations around sustainability are driving
onsite and remote sensors, and satellite data connected
behavioral changes in traditional utility practices.
to mobile devices allow for real-time monitoring of crop
In some places, civil society (consumers) already
water requirements and optimal irrigation demands.
participates in water conservation and wastewater
On the supply side, remote tele-control systems and
reuse. It can be expected that, as utilities digitize,
efficient irrigation technologies enable farmers to
more can be expected from civil society in the areas of
control and optimize the quantity and timing of water
innovation and smarter decision making about the use
application, while minimizing the energy consumption
and reuse of water.
trade-offs of pressurized irrigation in both rural and
urban agricultural settings (Germer et al., 2011; Ruiz- Despite anticipation of the many promising
Garcia et al., 2009). applications of digital data, the challenges are still very
real. In particular, the reluctance of public institutions
In addition, the application of blockchain technology
to address concerns about data security is a problem.
is another promising area. For instance, blockchain could
Cybersecurity is already a concern today and the risk
mediate competing demands on water (households,
is increasing. Historically, the water utility control
industry, energy generation, agriculture, nature)
systems were not designed with security in mind, so
to avoid overuse, and the application of blockchain
network intrusion is also an increasing concern. There
credits for proving efficiency measures could address
are threats to the critical control systems, especially
the problem of drought. If utilities can prove that they
those that control water flows, such as treatment
are being more efficient, they could earn blockchain
works and dams.
credits. This could create a market with the shifting
of water and drought situations, thereby effecting real But perhaps the real challenge over the coming
change in behaviors because there will be a monetary decades for utilities lies in setting the foundation for
reward for greater efficiency. utilities to begin applying data science and augmented
intelligence techniques to tangible business problems.
Digitalization will strengthen the participation of
The water sector still lags behind others, especially the
local communities in improving water and wastewater
infrastructure sectors such as energy, transport, and
management. But the Digital Revolution will continue
buildings, in integrating new, smart technologies into
to place a significant demand on high educational
the whole water ecosystem. In many African countries,
attainments and skills. Utilities, government agencies,
new technologies like augmented intelligence, cloud
and local administrative authorities will struggle

Box 12. Narrative for 2050: Smart Cities, Decent Housing, Mobility, Sustainable Infrastructure,
Pollution
By mid-century, cities neutralize their carbon footprints through recycling and “urban mining”. Cities are a
combination of compact mixed-use areas of living and working spaces, and they are environmentally and
socially safe. Digital progress has changed the nature of urbanization, with more people in remote locations
able to connect to the dynamism offered by cities, leading to increased integration of the urban hinterland
(Svedin & Liljenström, 2018). The interplay between what is today regarded as “urban” and what is not
(sometimes referred to as “rural”) will have to become more systemically strengthened and, in many places,
merged as vast regional “agglomerations” of patches that combine urban and rural functions over a large area
(Svedin & Liljenström, 2018). Previously “informal” settlements and slums are now livable settlements. Global
and regional hubs are more connected, and the earlier tendencies of tele-connections between major mega-
cities will have grown and consolidated in many ways that were not even envisaged around 2020. Housing
is no longer considered a purely private shelter; rather, it has become an essential component of a larger
social system giving people better opportunities to connect with each other. Transport solutions are more
integrated, systemic, autonomous, emissions-free, and shared. Longer-distance travel is undertaken largely by
a combination of fast rail, magnetic levitation transport, and low- or zero-emission aircraft.

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computing, and sensor technology are beyond the reach board power needs. Great improvements have been
of many water and wastewater utilities, which are still made with regards to regulations of air pollutants and
caught up in collecting and analyzing information in greenhouse gas emissions.
reports that are usually presented on paper.
In most countries, the substitution of the horse and
carriage for cars lasted about 30 years. The process
5.6 Smart Cities was essentially completed in the USA by the 1930s, and
5.6.1 Mobility in most other industrialized countries soon thereafter.
Most developed economies now have car ownership
The major change in individual transport during the rates of close to one car for every two people. This is
Industrial Revolution was the replacement of the horse not the case in many developing parts of the world
and carriage by motor vehicles. The other fundamental where the process is often incomplete and ongoing.
change was the invention of the elevator, which made
dense city centers possible. Initially requiring “drivers,” Globally, there were an estimated 1.37 billion
elevators later became the first “self-navigating” vehicles in operation (VIO) in 2017, a 4.1% increase
vehicles in response to a passenger’s floor choice. from 2016 (Wards, 2017). Much of the recent growth
came in developing regions where a rising middle class
In the case of automobiles, many propulsion expanded the market (Figure 35). While the accelerated
technologies initially competed, ranging from steam growth of China’s new-vehicle sales tempered in 2017,
and electricity with on-board storage, to the internal rising demand for used vehicles there helped keep
combustion engine. The first vehicles resembled the VIO growth above 11% at a total of 215.6 million.
carriages, but within a decade radical divergence had Though still at a high of almost 6 persons-per-vehicle
occurred. Cars became made from steel, and eventually ratio compared to 5.5 on average for the world. At the
the chassis was replaced by a unit body. Innovation current growth rate, there will be some 3.4 billion
continued, including automatic transmission, electronic VIO by 2030 globally for an estimated population of
engines and car management, active emissions controls, about 8.5 billion people (Lutz et al., 2018), which is
and many safety features, such as seat belts, crash zones, very close to one car per two people. With the current
and air bags. Many creature comforts were introduced, technology, this would imply an increase of fuel needs
including power steering and braking, air conditioning, as well as negative environmental externalities such
entertainment systems, navigation, Internet, power as air pollution by a factor of 2.4 compared to today.
windows, and seats. Although the efficiency of the Congestion and the need for parking spaces need
vehicles improved, fuel consumption improvements to be considered, as too should the risk that many
were modest because of increased weight and on-

Figure 35. Motorization rates for 2015 and increase since 2005 across regions worldwide. Source: OICA.

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settlements will become environments for cars rather three decades. Artificial intelligence, big data, and
than for people. Already the parking area in Los additive manufacturing could combine to enable
Angeles is greater than the total land area of New York autonomous driving vehicles, provided that the
(Woods Bagot 2018). At the same time, congestion and necessary underlying infrastructure, institutional, legal,
pollution problems may limit the increase of vehicles in and regulatory processes are in place. Autonomous
the next decade. vehicles need to be able to deal with all possible
contingencies by communicating among themselves,
Electric and plug-in hybrid cars and buses are a
with information exchanged with the infrastructure,
great hope for reducing the environmental impacts
manufacturers, services such as the police, and, of
of vehicles – assuming, of course, that the required
course, with the passengers. This will require big data
electricity is sustainably produced without air
and immense computing power to ensure that quick
pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. In 2016, the
decisions are made in difficult situations. Current
share of electric vehicles (EVs) in new sales globally
prototypes and cars on the road can master many of
reached 1% for the first time, and it passed the 2%
these challenges, but they are not yet fully autonomous
mark in 2018. This translates to a stock of above
as they require a driver behind the wheel when critical
three million cars or 0.4% of the total stock (Bunsen
situations occur. It would be a quantum leap to achieve
et al., 2018). Hydrogen propulsion also offers great
full autonomy for vehicles without human intervention
potential for reducing emissions, although the industry
in difficult situations. It is estimated that an autonomous
is in its infancy. It might be more promising for trucks
vehicle would generate four terabytes of data in an hour
than for cars, mainly due to the high cost of fuel cells.
and a half, the average daily time of a car in operation
Infrastructure needs to be built up and costs need to be
(Winter, 2017). For example, BMW has announced
lowered in the hydrogen supply chain to make this fuel
development of a digital platform for autonomous
source attractive.
vehicles with storage capacity of 230 petabytes (BMW
Several countries and regions have effective Group, 2019). The emergence of autonomous vehicles
incentives for increasing the fleet of zero-emissions would bring back some of the intelligence of the horse
vehicles. In Norway, for example, 40% of new vehicles that was lost when they were substituted by cars –
are electric or hybrid (Bunsen et al., 2018). Some of the namely, horses can go home alone! The introduction
incentives include rebates on new purchases, waivers of self-navigating vehicles should unfold with a focus
from congestion and road taxes, free charging, lower on the opportunity this new technology presents to
parking charges, and the right to use the “fast” lanes improve public welfare and safety, and it should come
reserved for public transport or multiple occupancy with an awareness that realization of the opportunities
vehicles. depends on positive public engagement. In Japan, for
There are indications that attitudes toward zero- example, autonomous driving is expected to play a
emissions vehicles are changing. This is illustrated by major role in the design of mobility systems in an aging
the fact that virtually every manufacturer has electric society by local governments, railway companies and
and plug-in hybrid vehicles in their development car makers and information-technology companies.
programs. A recent survey indicates that most A very simplified thought experiment: Current
consumers are willing to pay more for alternative vehicles achieve average speeds of some 50 kilometers
propulsion vehicles, with improved fuel consumption per hour and are used on average for about one
cited as the main reason for considering a battery- hour each day. This means that 1.4 billion VIO travel
electric or plug-in hybrid vehicle. Significantly, 80% of about 70 billion kilometers per day. In contrast, an
people aged 18–34 say they would pay more for a vehicle autonomous vehicle could be operated closer to 24/7
that is powered by something other than a traditional rather than for one hour per day. If the productive
internal combustion engine. Those with only high- driving, namely with passengers, is 10 hours per
school education or below were less willing (49%) day, then there would be 10 times fewer vehicles. In
than people with an undergraduate degree (71%) or a other words, 140 million vehicles would provide the
graduate degree (85%) to pay more for an alternative same service (provided that private car ownership
propulsion vehicle (Jolley, s.a.). In other words, the is substituted by shared autonomous vehicles). So,
better educated and the younger the individual, the instead of producing about 100 million vehicles a year,
more likely it is that he or she would purchase a zero- as the industry does today, only about 10 million cars
emissions vehicle. This is an early indication that the would be produced. This would decrease materials use
replacement of conventional by zero-emissions vehicle by a factor of 10, congestion and the need for parking
could be at least as swift as the replacement of horses, places would be drastically reduced, and, importantly,
meaning that by 2050 most vehicles in urban and peri- it would almost eliminate road accidents and deaths
urban areas would be zero emissions. (Figure 36). However, this would result in drastic
This, or even more pervasive revolutionary changes to the automotive industry, which currently
developments in mobility, could occur over the next accounts for approximately 3.5% of US GDP and over

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

Figure 36. Impact of comprehensive urban shared mobility on vehicle fleets, congestion, mobility costs, and
emissions in four example cities, based on detailed big data simulations of trip patterns and an agent-based model
of shared mobility coordination. Source: ITF (2019).

20% of all industry revenue in Germany, where nearly implemented quickly, using existing vehicle fleets. It
800,000 people constitute the automotive workforce also offers a particularly attractive option to improve
(GTAI, 2018). transport options and accessibility for traditionally
underserved and disadvantaged segments of society
Shared mobility models (e.g., Uber, Lyft, Didi
(low-income households without cars, residents
Chuxing, 99, Careem, Curb), particularly for private
of peripheral city suburbs with inadequate public
passenger transport, have become ubiquitous from
transport service), and it constitutes an attractive,
California to New Delhi, challenging both traditional
cheap, and convenient alternative to individual car use
(high-cost) taxi services and public transport. These
in densely populated urban areas.
mobility service business models can be extended
into a single comprehensive urban transport service The demand for conventional vehicles is likely to
platform that integrates public and private transport, decline in mature markets as younger generations show
as well as all urban transport vehicles, including buses, much less interest in driving themselves, as indicated
cars, scooters, and bicycles (but not high-capacity rail- in ever lower numbers of driver licenses being issued.
based systems, such as light rail or metros). ICT could For example, in Stockholm only 10% of 18-year-
provide consumer information to strengthen the range olds hold a driver’s license (Aretun & Nordbakke,
of available choices and influence consumer decisions 2014), and there has been a 40% reduction in license
(see section 5.6). applications in the USA. Thus, the transition toward
self-navigating vehicles would start with increasing
The OECD International Transport Forum (2019)
demand for collective transport mass-transit systems.
has conducted a number of detailed big data simulation
Many manufacturers are responding to the these
studies for four test cities to explore the feasibility and
shared-ownership trends by providing flexible vehicle
impacts of a comprehensive urban shared mobility
rental arrangements in urban areas. This kind of
model in which all trips are provided by an integrated
radical transformation implies a fundamental change
shared mobility service via a shared taxi and taxi
in vehicle ownership toward shared on-demand
bus fleet. The conclusions from these agent-based
vehicles. This could be in the form of service-company
simulation models are stark. All urban mobility can be
ownership of vehicles like taxis and other commercial
provided at any time and for any trip patterns with only a
vehicle fleets. This is a powerful trend reflected in the
small percentage of the existing vehicle fleet, drastically
market valuation of mobility companies. For example,
reducing traffic congestion, energy use, and mobility
whereas BMW is valued at below US$50 billion, Uber is
costs, while simultaneously lowering emissions even
valued at over US$80 billion, which is about the same
with continued reliance on conventional (internal
as the valuation of Volkswagen (Kenwell, 2019).
combustion) vehicle technology. A particular appeal
of this shared urban mobility option is that it can be

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New business models are likely to emerge. It is challenge is that the current battery technology cannot
also important to note that the tendency of individual produce full power for the eight minutes required
choice in family transportation has to be included in to reach cruise altitude. Thus, designers are using
the assessment of the aggregated urban situation. In hydrogen fuel cells to augment battery power. On
emerging markets, the demand for passenger vehicles landing, some energy is recuperated so that batteries
is growing and will drive overall sector demand in the recharge. With this innovation, electric aircraft could
coming decades. Another innovative possibility is three- serve to bring passengers to hub airports. Even long-
dimensional elevators (based on magnetic levitation; range aircraft can be fueled by hydrogen, reducing CO2
see Ackermann, 2014) as an extension of subways and emissions to zero, assuming the source of energy is
other forms of integrated and shared mobility; such an carbon free. Some of the most visionary designs include
innovation could have important implications for how Progress Eagle by Oscar Vin͂ als,20 which combines a
future cities are built. number of advanced technologies to provide long-
range travel. It includes solar cells, hydrogen turbines
Today, drones are already self-navigating with
for takeoff, and a large ducted fan propeller for electric
minimal “flying” instructions required from the
drive in cruise and for recuperation on landing. About
operator. In fact, they have many features of autonomous
40% of the technology required to build the aircraft
vehicles in that they monitor their environment to
exists today, and the remaining gap could be closed
avoid collisions and choose appropriate flight paths
within a decade or two (Viñals, 2014).
consistent with operator instructions, local regulations,
and avoidance of danger zones such as airports. There Perhaps the most attractive option for long-
are many drones in design to autonomously carry distance travel is magnetic levitation (maglev). Such
passengers. Recent initiatives include the plan to take advanced trains are already in service, for example,
passengers to and from an airport via drone, which from Shanghai airport to the city. Japan, which has a
Frankfurt and Dubai airports hope to realize within a dense network of high-speed trains called Shinkansen
decade (Chen, 2019). (Figure 37), is building a maglev train from Tokyo
to Nagoya. A complementary development is the
Electric aircraft are a complementary development.
Hyperloop,21 a proposed mode of passenger and freight
Small, four-passenger electric planes can be purchased
today (e.g., from Pipistrel19), and manufacturers and 20 https://www.behance.net/gallery/20804291/
designers are working on larger versions. A major AWWAQG-Progress-Eagle-Quantum-Airplane
21 https://hyperloop-one.com/
19 https://www.pipistrel-aircraft.com/

Figure 37. Top: Maglev train in operation, Japan. Source: Courtsey of JR Tokai. Bottom: Chūō Shinkansen. Yellow
line Chūō Shinkansen. Route proposed by JR Central. Light yellow line Chūō Shinkansen route detail is undecided.
Red line Yamanashi Test Track. Source: Hisagi - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/
index.php?curid=15456682.

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

transportation using maglev technology in evacuated fuel resources in 2015 (World Bank, 2019). To achieve
tunnels to reduce friction and achieve velocities a net-zero-energy or plus-energy building, it will be
comparable to those of aircraft. necessary to combine energy efficiency measures and
the adoption of renewable energy technologies.
In a possibly shared economy of the future,
sustainable mobility can become a reality, with The Digital Revolution leads to further new
integrated mobility and transport systems that include materials and technological solutions that have the
self-navigating vehicles working like swarms to provide potential to improve internal conditions and to reduce
flexible, efficient, fast, and zero-emissions services. the negative impacts of buildings on the environment.
Such systems may include three-dimensional maglev Smart homes make use of digital tools, technology,
elevators, maglev trains, self-navigating cars, drones and information (IEA, 2017). Equipment and building
and aircraft, all of them electric. During the Industrial parts have advanced features of their own, as well as
Revolution, the emergence of railways provided interconnectivity to improve their operation. Smart
infrastructure for emerging urban settlements homes have a system of sensors to monitor variables
that evolved along metro lines. Later, the pervasive like temperature and occupancy, and they enable
diffusion of automobiles did the same for newer urban settings to be adjusted accordingly. The system can
settlements. It is quite possible that the advanced, work with or without a connection with the outside
self-navigating, and organizing mobility and transport world, and it can function with or without human
systems of the future will do the same for emerging intervention.
urban centers for the seven or more billion people
The global number of connected homes has been
living in cities around the world in the second half of
growing and is projected to increase steadily. According
the century (GEA, 2012).
to Strategy Analytics, a big data analyst think tank,
5.6.2 Smart Spaces, Buildings, and Homes the penetration of smart homes is expected to grow
worldwide from 4% in 2013 to 12% in 2019, and in the
The Industrial Revolution had a major impact on USA from 13% in 2013 to 38% in 2019 (Ablondi, 2014).
buildings as well as on cities and the landscape. The According to their data, there were already 172 million
growth in productivity and focused production resulted smart homes in 2016 globally, which is expected to
in lower opportunities (and wages) in agriculture, grow to over 300 million in 2020 (Strategy Analytics,
while it increased opportunities in the cities, resulting 2019). Behind this trend, the penetration of connected
in migration and sprawling urbanization. This further smart home appliances is projected to multiply six
impacted on culture and society. times between 2017 and 2030, from around one billion
The Industrial Revolution created new and to over six billion (Figure 38).
abundant building materials, including cast iron, Integration of “smartness” into homes is best done
steel, and glass, enabling the construction of large and at the construction stage; however, new construction is
numerous buildings and city structures in a short time. below 1% of existing stocks per year in Europe. A focus
Technological innovations, especially the elevator, on deep renovation could provide a tipping point, and
allowed a decoupling from structural constraints, and it might reduce the need for new constructions. The
the concept of space more closely followed function, issue with costs is even more prominent in the Global
leading to vertical growth (Corbusier, 1922). Cities South, where most new buildings will be built, and
changed their skylines dramatically. The city function where decent housing is an issue in itself, with all the
was changing and enlarging, which created new social related environmental impacts. Additionally, there is a
classes. Medieval cities had focused on protection and major disconnect in the longevity of smart devices and
featured strong external walls, whereas modern cities technologies (in the order of three to five years) and
are open and connected. Districts and neighborhoods that of the buildings themselves (50–100 years), which
underwent transition; although slums and wealthy may require continual retrofitting of new technologies
areas were still separate, working-class districts and devices as they become obsolete. Harnessing the
emerged. As there was no public transport, the benefits of connectivity requires more than technology.
industrial workers lived close to industries, giving rise
to workers’ cities. With the growth of wealth, employers Today’s buildings can adapt to their external
built houses for workers (a worker who sleeps better, conditions, utilize natural daylight, and adjust
works better). ventilation to regulate the internal conditions and
optimize overall energy demand. Building energy
Buildings were responsible for 32% of global final management systems (BEMS) can enormously increase
energy consumption in 2010, which was approximately the efficiency of energy use in buildings. Recently
117 exajoules and 51% of global electricity consumption BEMS has been combined with Building Information
(Lucon et al., 2014). Energy is used in buildings mainly Modelling (BIM) systems, which control all systematic
for heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, and appliances. life cycle information of buildings. BEMS can optimize
Approximately 80% of this energy came from fossil the effective energy use within whole combinations

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5 Digitalization and Sustainable Development

Figure 38. Home connectivity in recent years, in the near future, and in 2030. Panel (a) shows the growth of the
number of smart homes, and the distribution among world regions and major economies; panel (b) presents the
expected growth in smart home appliances. Source: Data from Strategy Analytics (2019).

of systems (e.g., onsite renewable production, natural balanced with renewable energy generation. Building
ventilation, personal energy consumption patterns, information may be linked with large public data
and building mixed-use). sources in a timely manner to balance regional energy
Progressive sustainable construction incorporates demands with onsite renewable energy production.
various sustainability aspects. These buildings By integrating smart buildings and renewable energy
integrate thermal sustainability and all other services production, the smart grid concept is expected to create
of a building, using closed material reuse or recycling a fundamental efficiency and reliability improvements
systems for water, wastewater, food waste, and for the whole built environment. Automated control
construction materials (Ertsey & Medgyasszay, 2017). systems can optimize energy demand and network
They may even be self-sufficient, such as the Net-Zero availability, delivering energy more effectively and
Projects by EPA (2018). Digitalization ensures that enabling consumers to actively participate in the
energy is consumed when and where it is needed, and electricity market (Kolokotsa, 2016). Smart metering
it enables peak demand management, while predicting, technology can support the delivery of intelligent
measuring, monitoring, and reacting to what is services for households and building users. These data,
happening within or around the house (IEA, 2017). as well as other energy and climate data, are used to
analyze the complex relationship between energy
In addition to offering more comfort, smart homes consumption and variables such as temperature, solar
increase health protection and security, and they are radiation, and occupant behavior (Jain et al., 2014).
the source of huge amounts of data. Understanding However, to achieve this implementation, community
personal energy consumption patterns within buildings governance and partnership are critical to ensuring
can support projections in energy demand, which can be that large-scale network systems are built and that the

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 Digitalization and Sustainable Development 5

maximum potential of integrated sustainable actions depending on the situation. This may fundamentally
in a community are realized (e.g., Figure 39). However, change the value of land and property. Such multi-use
the issues of privacy and illicit access to personal date shared spaces can dramatically reduce use of resources,
constitute a major challenge to the diffusion of smart energy, and materials; it can also lower transport costs
and interconnected buildings. and overcome location-specific constraints.
Increasingly, homes are becoming much more than Such high levels of connectivity within homes
places for sleeping. Advances in computational design do not come without significant risks, such as the
technologies have promoted the concept of flexible potential for cascading or systemic failures, or loss of
spaces over conventional spaces (e.g., offices, single-use systems control. Critically, increasing connectedness
buildings). The Digital Revolution may accelerate more increases the potential for malicious hacking.
“anonymous” shared spaces, which simply provide Beyond connectivity, digitalization also impacts the
basic facility infrastructure that can be adapted for a construction of buildings. Figure 40 shows a residential
number of different users (including anonymous users) building that was “printed”.

Figure 39. Smart Cities of the future. Source: Graphic courtesy Miho Kamei.

Figure 40. The first residential building in Europe printed with a 3D construction printer. Yaroslavl (Russia).
Source: AMT-SPETSAVIA Group (Russia) – www.specavia.pro, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/
index.php?curid=74334750.

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6. Governing the Transformation toward Sustainability in the Digital Age

6
Governing the Transformation
toward Sustainability in the
Digital Age
The Digital Revolution has already begun the process A compelling example of the importance of public
of transforming humans into Homo digitalis, and it perceptions and opinions in the context of the SDGs is
is a major determining factor in how we will live and the current relative lack of action on reducing carbon
interact. Clearly there are many societal challenges dioxide emissions toward zero. This is a herculean
associated with increasing digitalization. If not task that will require halving emissions every decade
managed carefully and thoughtfully, these challenges from now on (Rockström et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018). The
could lead to a significant counter-revolution – that biggest obstacle to the introduction of a carbon tax is
is, a direction of development opposite that required public perception and acceptance. A diligent and open
to achieve the 17 SDGs. The hugely popular Netflix discussion with the public could be the decisive step
series Black Mirror, which depicts a technology-driven that provides a solution to the problem, clarifying the
dystopia, is not necessarily that unbelievable given public’s favored options (Carattini et al., 2019). However,
the seemingly unregulated current evolution of digital there are new contemporary social movements that are
technologies. rapidly building a global force in favor of strong political
action to tackle climate change issues, as evidenced by
However, it is equally clear that advances in
the recent school strikes (often associated with the
technology offer huge societal benefits, if explicitly
16-year-old Swedish campaigner, Greta Thunberg), and
directed toward a sustainable future for all. The
these have expanded to all continents and attracted a
potential for major progress in education, health,
million activist followers.
equity, and prosperity, as well as the reduction of
environmental degradation and of the damage to The simplest of the new technologies that will
essential Earth-system functions, is undeniable cause disruptions in the very near future may be
(as explored with many examples in chapter 6). In autonomous vehicles (AV), which are a mere step
addition, there will be societal impacts brought about away. Their introduction should take note that “if
by significant changes of to our lifestyles, work, leisure, commonsense protections are not in place to govern
and interaction with other members of our immediate, AV development, and problems occur, the public will
local, and broader communities. reject autonomous vehicles, and the opportunity this
new technology presents to improve public safety will
Societies and their governments are standing at a
be lost” (Claybrook & Kildare, 2018). This is a simple
critical crossroads that mark the type of future we want.
but very powerful argument, which should be applied
Of course, it is possible that the current trends cannot
and extended to innovation and technology in general.
be managed or regulated at all, given that the vigorous
pace of innovation is creating new tools and techniques The creation of ever more powerful technologies with
well ahead of the creation of guiding norms and policy ever less intuitive consequences may, if left unchecked,
– – and, indeed, well ahead of public awareness about aggregate in problems that the public will vehemently
the implications of the innovations. In the absence regard as unacceptable. A public that feels cheated and
of a thoroughly examined, deliberate path for the used through the adoption of technologies will respond
introduction of new technologies, the consequences like postmodern critics of science: in terms of power,
to the public good, global commons, and other natural the status quo, relativism, and alternative truths. The
resources are often confronted after the fact. By that Digital Revolution could provide new means of public
time, the damage is already so large that it cannot be engagement and participation in new technologies.
ignored, which leaves the public feeling deceived.
Governing the digital transformation is a challenge
However, the Digital Revolution could help provide the
because the “ship has to be built while being on sea.”
tools to inform the public about the positive attributes
We do not have a clear picture what a digitalized world
of new technologies and to engage their support up
will look like. Simple and small governance innovations
front as the technology improves and spreads. While
might help, but they will not be enough. We identify a set
public support is essential for the realization of the
of guiding principles for governing the transformation
full potential of new technologies, public concerns will
toward sustainability in the Digital Age:
constrain the realization of their full commercial and
financial deployment.

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6 Governing the Transformation

Creating the missing links between digitalization impossible. Artificial intelligence could be integrated
and wealth creation: The mobilization of the enormous as a new actor as part of a governance system.
potential for a digital sustainability transformation is
Fifth, sustainability and digitalization researchers
not a matter of course. Digitalization has worked in
have hitherto operated in separate silos. It is imperative
recent decades more as an accelerator of economic
to improve collaboration and integration, so that there
processes that are still predominantly based on fossil
is a holistic perspective from which to gain knowledge
energy and resource extraction. The production and
about transformation pathways toward digital,
operation of short-lived electronic devices alone is a
sustainable societies.
key driver of energy and resource use. For example,
a smartphone contains almost all chemical elements, Sixth, we need to support dialogue networks
so recycling is important but resource intensive. A that connect business, government, civil society, and
trend reversal is required. Without politically designed science. These networks will enable the goals, limits,
course corrections toward sustainability, the dynamic and normative framework conditions of a digital,
of unrestrained digitalization threatens to drive sustainability society to be negotiated. This will require
the world further into a hyper-consumer society, policymakers, researchers, companies, and civil society
thus jeopardizing the success of the sustainability actors to multiply their efforts to understand and
transformation. Digital upheavals can also compound explain the effects of digital change. These networks
many social problems, such as inequalities or the will span national and established transnational
erosion of state control. borders, because digitalization and data do not stop at
any borders.
However, if course corrections succeed, then the
disruptive impact of digitalization can be leveraged These six mechanisms are fundamental, necessary
to accelerate and enhance the sustainability conditions for enabling and accelerating the
transformation. Digitalization can then advance the sustainability dynamics in the Six Transformations
decarbonization of energy and mobility systems, (Figure 41).
the comprehensive circular economy, resource To accelerate processes of change as initiated
and energy efficiency and sufficiency, sustainable by the implementation of the six mechanisms, we
urban transformation, and ecosystem monitoring suggest creating spaces for local experiments. These
and protection. There is a need for corresponding labs of innovations would demonstrate how digital
and commensurate policies, which at present exist dynamics can foster sustainability transformations:
only in a small number of sectors and a limited cities implementing shared mobility systems in order
number of countries. Six key mechanisms can help to reduce the number of cars could be supported;
create the “missing links” between digitalization and regions starting to build fully circular production and
sustainability. consumption chains could get access to favorable
First, by systematically integrating sustainability finance; universities, aiming at systematically
requirements into their research and innovation integrating research on sustainability, artificial
processes, pioneers in digitalization research could help intelligence, automated decision-making systems, and
to develop mission statements of digital sustainability. virtual spaces, should be promoted. Investing in the
power of creativity, innovation, and experiments could
Second, fair pricing of greenhouse gas emissions
help pave the way to sustainable digital societies.
and green levies and tariffs need to be geared to the
consumption of natural resources rather than to labor. Developing normative and institutional
Currently, it is the latter that is the foremost source of innovations and guardrails for sustainable digital
taxation. Tax reform could be a powerful way of driving societies: Governing digital disruptions is not only
digital innovation toward sustainability. about some good policies to link economic development
pathways with digital innovations. In the 21st century,
Third, markets could be shaped by clear government
digitalization will change the basic structures of our
sustainability goals, as well as sectorial and regional
societies as fundamentally as the Industrial Revolution
transition roadmaps. This could incentivize and
led to deep transformations in the 19th century. A new
mobilize digital technologies and their disruptive
society is emerging, and even a new era of humanity:
potential to implement sustainability transformations
the Digital Anthropocene. We demonstrated that
with appropriate time urgency.
digitalization could multiply “slippery slopes,” which
Fourth, significant state modernization programs are already threatening many societies: economic and
need to be launched to rapidly increase the digital political power concentration; multiple inequalities;
skills of public institutions and their ability to connect privacy and citizen rights under stress; and governance
with sustainability transformations. Without digital capacities of nation states eroding. The impacts of
skills, a responsible approach to the digital changes is digitalization on labor markets could be huge.

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 Governing the Transformation 6

Figure 41. TWI2050 focuses on Six Transformations that capture much of the global, regional, and local dynamics
and encompass major drivers of future changes: (i) Human Capacity & Demography; (ii) Consumption & Production;
(iii) Decarbonization & Energy; (iv) Food, Biosphere & Water; (v) Smart Cities; and (vi) the Digital Revolution.
Together, they provide a people-centered perspective, enabling the building of local, national, and global societies
and economies that secure the wealth creation, poverty reduction, fair distribution, and inclusiveness necessary
for human prosperity. They are necessary and potentially sufficient to achieve the SDGs if addressed holistically
and in unison. Source: TWI2050 (2018).

Against this background, it will be critical to balance who was both an economist and a moral philosopher,
digitalization and social cohesion. But the drivers of argued in his Wealth of Nations (1776) that markets,
change will produce even more fundamental shifts: technological revolutions, and deep changes within
automated decision making or supporting systems will, societies could only work without destabilizing societal
based on big data analysis, penetrate courts, health systems if the autonomy of markets is constrained
systems, parliaments, private businesses, military by society’s norms and values. Unless digital change
organizations, police, and universities. How will we is embedded in strong systems of values and norms,
balance deliberation between humans, as a basic the dystopian potential of digitalization will prevail.
pillar of all our societies and the international system, Therefore, normative guardrails for the Digital Age
with artificial intelligence and deep-learning-driven need to be developed (WBGU, 2019). The analysis
decision-making systems? What does all this mean for of trends of digitalization demonstrates that their
the future of democracy? Where digital monitoring impacts move into new societal territories, and this is
and tracing technologies meet authoritarian regimes, something that is still not covered by the 2030 Agenda.
democracy and freedom are at stake. Human TWI2050 therefore suggests the initiation of local,
transformation, human enhancement, and ever deeper national, and global dialogues on appropriate norms
interactions between humans and technical systems and values for the Digital Anthropocene.
will rapidly develop further. Human integrity and
Learning from Adam Smith’s knowledge on the
dignity need to be reinvented against the background
normative foundations of societies is important, but
of these fundamental developments.
it is not enough. Karl Polanyi, as well as Max Weber
At the same time, there are many opportunities, and other thinkers, agreed with Adam Smith, but
as discussed in this report: revolutionary health they took a vital further step. Norms can only be
innovations will emerge; people around the globe can successfully anchored in societies and protected from
now interact, learn, and cooperate in virtual spaces; powerful interest groups if institutions are created
and there is likely to be a huge explosion of knowledge. that can deal with the changes and steer individual and
In this era of transformative change and disruption, we collective action into corridors agreed on by society.
should learn from Adam Smith and Karl Polanyi. Smith, Institutional innovations and guardrails are needed to

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6 Governing the Transformation

develop pathways toward a sustainable digital future.

supporting systems toward sustainability, and to
Our message is: digitalization is not only a process of
understand deep digital transformations and their
accelerating technological change, but a civilizational
societal impacts, new research communities have to be
shift requiring deep normative and institutional
developed.
innovations and guardrails.
Second, we need to change the narrative about
Investing in future-oriented science and
“governing the digital transformation” by enabling
education: In times of deep changes and uncertainties,
innovative research that departs from the analysis of
science could help to generate future-oriented
challenges and threats of technological developments,
knowledge about possible pathways toward sustainable
and instead focuses on new ideas and solutions – that
digital societies. Science policy could support four
is, we need to create a positive narrative of synergies of
major contributions of science to a sustainable
suitability for all (Box 13).
digitalization. First, just as climate and Earth-system
research was brought together with social sciences Third, research communities should interact
and economics four decades ago to form sustainability systematically with the private sector, civil society, and
sciences, the challenge now is to build bridges between political decision makers at all levels. Transdisciplinary
the sustainability sciences and digitalization-oriented research and dialogues would help to develop joint
research (Figure 42). To shape artificial intelligence, perspectives, democratically accepted heuristics, and
virtual realities, automated decision making, and mental maps of what sustainable digital societies could

Figure 42. More integrative science is needed to cover advances in digital technologies (e.g., artificial intelligence)
and the interconnections of digital technologies with sustainability. Computer sciences are lagging when it comes
to their role in sustainability (panel a), while artificial intelligence is not yet a topic of interest to disciplines outside
computer science (panel b). Combining the search terms “sustainability” and “artificial intelligence” reveals that
computer science and engineering are ahead of the social and environmental sciences in their research output
level by a factor of 100 (panel c). Source: Data from SCOPUS.

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 Governing the Transformation 6

Box 13. Data Trusts: An Agreement between Citizens, Governments and Firms for Data Use
Private firms are not, by nature, providers of collective goods in the way that governments are, which is a
problem if the focus is on bringing digital technology solutions to the massive governance challenges that must
be addressed in the 2030 Agenda. This does not mean that digital technologies cannot play a role in helping
solve these problems; it does mean that managing the politics of technology and data will play a key role in the
effective digitalization of the 2030 Agenda. Regulating the use of data is an important starting point, since user
data is central to the participation of Internet firms in governance processes. In the years since the 2016 US
election, there has been increased scrutiny and public debate about how social media and Internet platforms
manage user data. The revelations about Facebook selling user data to firms like Cambridge Analytica, and the
ways that state actors can use psychometric data to target batches of users with tailored posts, pose significant
challenges to good, inclusive governance and political participation.
One promising approach to reestablishing trust between users, software firms, and governments is the
establishment of data trusts. Although the concept is still being debated, there are some generally agreed
features of what constitutes a data trust. In the context of data used in smart city applications, data trusts can
take the form of a fiduciary trust between citizens, government, and data firms (Wylie & McDonald, 2018).
These kinds of fiduciary agreements give all parties input into how data are used in different jurisdictions. The
agreements are flexible, and they prevent data capture by private actors who answer to shareholders. This
can create an ethical, transparent mechanism for storing and using sensitive data, like medical information,
for activities, such as developing artificial intelligence and machine learning tools for public health, which
is currently being explored by the National Health Service in the UK (Mehonic, 2018). As noted, data trusts
are still a concept that is being developed, and different governance entities have different definitions and
approaches to understanding them. The OECD takes a local-level view on what constitutes a data trust,
embedding the process that determines data-sharing rules at the community level, with the communities then
determining among themselves the data-sharing rules across jurisdictions (Hardinges, 2018). Although not all
data requires something like a trust or fiduciary arrangement, trusts can go a long way toward establishing
transparency and trust between citizens, governments, and firms about what constitutes appropriate, ethical
use of data for.

and should look like. Currently, digital innovations are the breakthrough and impacts of a communication
mainly driven by private R&D investments. To develop revolution (the printing press); and (iii) a cultural
societal perspectives on sustainable futures, public and religious transformation (the Reformation).
R&D investments are instrumental. These three shifts revolutionized European societies.
Something similar is happening now at the beginning
Fourth, fundamental and basic research should be
of the Digital Age. First, the Digital Age is producing
complemented by research investments in real-world
a new virtual, global, just-in-time communication
experiments (future labs) that aim to build rapidly
revolution. Second, the Digital Anthropocene will
sustainable digital mobility, as well as urban, energy,
trigger new world views, redefining our perceptions of
and educational systems.
humans, of intelligence, of boundaries between humans
Fifth, research and knowledge hubs on sustainable and technical systems, of science, and of the planet.
digitalization should be created and significantly Third, we will also probably see profound cultural
strengthened in the Global South to ensure that transformations. We suggest, therefore, that we should
developing countries can also become drivers of start developing a “New Humanism” (WBGU, 2019) for
transformations toward sustainable digital societies. the Digital Anthropocene as a tool that might help to
Beyond science, comprehensive education on avoid the dystopian potentials of digitalization.
sustainability is a precondition for enabling the next
Some elements, ingredients, and starting points
generations to understand and shape the dynamics of
of a New Humanism have been discussed in this
fundamental change.
report: knowledge expansion will open new doors
Creating attractive narratives and visions to to economic, social, and cultural innovations; digital
shape the future: a New Humanism (WBGU, 2019) technologies will enable transnational communication
for the 21st century: The Renaissance, which built and learning; virtual spaces will support the creation
bridges between the Middle Ages and the Ages of of transnational networks and communities. All this
Enlightenment and the Industrial Age, was characterized could foster a culture of global cooperation, of global
by three major revolutions or transformations: (i) the world views, and of humans as a community of destiny.
emergence of a new world view (Copernicus); (ii) Furthermore, given the digital technologies that enable

81
6 Governing the Transformation

us to monitor, analyze, and understand the Earth of responsibility for Earth-system stability and a
system as never before, it could also lead to a global healthy planet? Can a global commons perspective –
environmental consciousness. on climate issues, the oceans, global land use, as well
as on financial markets and international security
The New Humanism should defend the basic values
networks – gain in importance? Can humans learn to
of the Enlightenment (i.e., human dignity, human rights,
be embedded in their local and national communities
freedom, equity, rule of law, democracy) and embark on
while at the same time identifying themselves as global
a renewed understanding of humanism in the Digital
citizens? Can all of this be leveraged by the global
Anthropocene, taking on board perspectives that have
communication revolution and the unprecedentedly
been neglected or not taken seriously during the last
dense transnational networks of people? How can we
three centuries. The following questions might indicate
govern beyond borders more effectively and establish
some significant dimensions of a renewed concept of
a transnational governance system? And last, but not
humanism in the 21st century. How could we mobilize
least: How are we going to define the future of humans,
the potentials of human emotions, empathy, care,
now that we are becoming equipped with technologies
and solidarity to go beyond our cognitive capacities?
that allow for different types of human enhancement
Can artificial intelligence help us to understand and
or even artificial evolution?
better use our social intelligence as a key competitive
advantage and a major cornerstone of societal These reflections about a New Humanism open the
progress? Can we complement our understanding door to renewed thinking about sustainability in the
of individual freedom with a stronger emphasis Digital Anthropocene. Keeping in mind the image of us
on humans as social beings who are embedded in having to build the ship while at sea, we end the report
communities and societies? Can we develop further with these open questions and invite researchers,
our thinking on the importance of social cohesion and political decision makers, private businesses, and
equity for human wellbeing? Can digital innovations civil society to gather and invest in finding answers to
help us to readjust the relationship between humanity these questions so as to ensure that we find a pathway
and the planet? Can we develop a global culture toward a sustainable future for all.

82
Abbreviations

Abbreviations
AI Artificial intelligence
AIS Automated identification systems
AM Additive manufacturing
AR Augmented reality
AV Autonomous vehicles
BEMS Building energy management system
BIM Building Information Modelling
CAD Computer-aided-design
CGI Computer-generated imagery
DRE Decentralized renewable energy
DSO Distributed system operator
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
ETF Equity trading fund
FOSS Free and open source software
GAP Grid access planning
GHG Greenhouse gas
IAM Integrated assessment modeling
ICT Information and communication technologies
IUU Illegal, unreported, unregulated
IoT Internet of Things
LDC Least developed countries
LiDAR Light detection and ranging
MMORG Massive multiplayer online role-playing game
MOOC Massive open online courses
NMR Nuclear-magnetic resonance
PCA Principal components analysis
REM Reference electrification model
SaaS Software-as-a-service
SDG Sustainable development goals
SDP Sustainable Development Pathway
SHS Solar-home systems
STI Science, technology, and innovation
TWI2050 The World in 2050 Initiative
VIO Vehicles in operation
VR Virtual reality
XR Extended reality

83
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Authors and Contributors

Authors
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Dirk Messner, Institute for Environment and Human Security of United Nations University (UNU-EHS), Germany
Caroline Zimm, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Geoff Clarke, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Australia
Johan Rockström, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association,
Germany and Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC) | Stockholm University (SU), Sweden
Ana Paula Aguiar, Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC) | Stockholm University (SU), Sweden
Benigna Boza-Kiss, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Lorenza Campagnolo, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy
Ilan Chabay, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), Germany
David Collste, Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC) | Stockholm University (SU), Sweden
Luis Comolli, Independent Researcher, Italy
Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Anne Goujon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Reiner Jung, Christian-Albrechts University Kiel (CAU), Germany
Miho Kamei, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan
George Kamiya, International Energy Agency (IEA), France
Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association,
Germany
Michael Kuhn, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Julia Leininger, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik - German Development Institute (DIE-GDI), Germany
Charles Martin-Shields, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik - German Development Institute (DIE-GDI),
Germany
Beatriz Mayor-Rodriguez, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Jerry Miller, Science for Decisions, United States
Apollonia Miola, European Commission, JRC, Italy
Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Maria Schewenius, Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC) | Stockholm University (SU), Sweden
Jörn Schmidt, Christian-Albrechts University Kiel (CAU), Germany
Odirilwe Selomane, Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC) | Stockholm University (SU), Sweden
Kristina Skierka, Power For All, United States
Uno Svedin, Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC) | Stockholm University (SU), Sweden
Paul Yillia, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

93
 Contributors
Tateo Arimoto, Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and GRIPS (National Graduate Institute for Policy
Studies), Japan
Bill Colglazier, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), United States
Arthur Contejean, International Energy Agency (IEA), France
Ines Dombrowsky, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik - German Development Institute (DIE-GDI),
Germany
Tanvi Jaluka, Independent Expert, United States
Hermann Lotze-Campen, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz
Association, Germany
Kris Murray, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
Michel Noussan, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Italy
Mihail C. Roco, National Science Foundation (NSF), United States
Lucilla Spini, International Science Council (ISC), France
Mark Stoeckle, The Rockefeller University, United States
Sander van der Leuw, Arizona State University (ASU) and Santa Fe Institute (SFI), United States
Detlef van Vuuren, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and Utrecht University, Department of
Geosciences, Netherlands
Eric Zusman, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan

94
Partnering Organizations

Partnering and Contributing

Organizations
Alpen-Adria University (AAU)
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (AIMES)
Arizona Statue University (ASU)
Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG)
Australian National University (ANU)
Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES)
Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais ligado ao Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia,
Inovações e Comunicações (CEMADEM)
Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS)
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
Christian-Albrechts University Kiel (CAU)
Climate Center Service Germany (GERICS)
Columbia University, Earth Institute
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)
Conservation International
Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik - German Development Institute (DIE-GDI)
Earth League
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) 
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Energy Planning Program (COPPE)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI)
Future Earth
Future Ocean
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz)
Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Global Science Technology and Innovation Conferences (G-STIC)
GRIPS (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)
Imperial College London
Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)
Institute for Environment and Human Security of United Nations University (UNU-EHS)
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Institute for Social Ecology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

95
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
International Energy Agency (IEA)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
International Science Council (ISC)
Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)
Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
(PNNL)
Korea University (KU)
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
Millennium Institute
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Power for All
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Oxford University, Environmental Change Institute (ECI)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen (RWTH)
The Rockefeller University
Science for Decisions
Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC) | Stockholm University (SU)
Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)
Sustainable Development Goals Center for Africa
Stakeholder Forum
SwedBio – A Programme at Stockholm Resilience Centre
Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS)
Tsinghua University
University of Washington
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA)
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Université Catholique de Louvain
University of Sussex
US National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
US National Science Foundation (NSF)
Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek (VITO)
World Bank
World Wildlife Fund (WWF)

96
1. A new era in human history is emerging! A�er Neolithic
and Industrial, the Digital Revolu�on is the next era!
2. Digital technologies can enable a disrup�ve revolu�on
toward a Sustainable Anthropocene!
3. Governance is urgently needed! The disrup�ve
dynamics of digitaliza�on are challenging the
absorp�ve capaci�es of our socie�es and threaten to
erode social cohesion.
4. The Digital Revolu�on opens the door to a quantum
leap for human civiliza�on!
5. We need to resolve the paradox of the Digital
Anthropocene: Digitaliza�on is crea�ng the essen�al
precondi�ons for TWI2050 Six Fundamental
Transforma�ons toward sustainability, yet it is also
endangering them!
6. Human enhancement and augmenta�on present an
uncertain future for our species! Homo sapiens is being
transformed into Homo digitalis.
7. We need to understand and overcome the “retarding
moments” of innova�on breakthrough!
8. We need to build responsible knowledge socie�es
capable of moving toward sustainability in the Digital
Age!
9. The clock is �cking toward 2030 – we have only 10
years to meet our Sustainable Development Goals!