MMM Notes PDF
MMM Notes PDF
“Keep away from people who belittle your ambitions. Small people do
that, but the really great make you feel that you too can become great.”
Mark Twain.
Preliminary Notes 4
Homework Exercises 6
Exercise 1 6
Exercise 2 6
Exercise 3 6
Exercise 4 6
Exercise 5 6
Exercise 6 7
Exercise 7 7
Exercise 8 7
Exercise 9 7
Exercise 10 7
Exercise 11 7
Forex Market Sessions 8
Japan/Asia 8
European 8
US 8
What Is the Market Maker? 9
What Tools Does the Market Maker Have? 10
What Tools Do the Dealers and Brokers Have? 11
Chart Observations 12
Anatomy of The Asian Range Stop Hunt 12
Anatomy of an M and W Formation 14
Trapping Volume 16
The Wedge Redefined As a Volume Trapping Mechanism 17
Maintaining the Validity of Highs and Lows 18
False Support and Resistance Levels 19
The Anatomy of the Half Batman Pattern 19
Weekly Price Movements 20
The Three Day Cycle 22
Intraday Price Movements 23
The Accumulation Phase 24
The Stop Hunt – also defining the HOD / LOD 25
Other Behaviours at the HOD/LOD Reversal 27
The Extended Stop Hunt 28
The True Trend 29
The Opposite LOD /HOD and Reversal 30
A Return to Accumulation 30
Learning to Count 31
The Count of the 3 Day Cycle 31
The Count of the Intraday Cycle 33
Chart Setup 35
Candlestick Patterns 35
EMA's 38
Colour-Coded Sessions 40
Previous HOD/LOD Markers 41
ADR High and Low 41
Pivots 42
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RSI 44
TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) 45
Confluence of Signals 47
Trend Assessment 48
Basic Trend Analysis with All Information Available 48
Trading and Trade Setups 50
Components of a trading system 50
Rules To Profit 51
Fractional Disparity 52
Scanning View 53
Putting the Chart Together 54
Look for Strike Zones 55
A Suggested Routine 56
Market Timing 58
The Trading Zone 59
The Straightaway Trade 60
The 2nd leg M or W Setup 60
The 33 Trade 64
The Swing Trade 65
The New York City Reversal Trade 65
Reversal on the EMA 200 66
Summarise The Entries 66
Summarise the Exits 66
Risk Level 67
Stop Loss When Scaling in 67
Trailing Stops 67
Index 68
Notes 80
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PRELIMINARY NOTES
To successfully use the market maker method you need to begin to
understand the motivations and tools that the MM has. The sole goal of the
MM is to make a profit. The only tools at its disposal relate to manipulating
price.
Price is a reflection of the number of transactions and the price paid for
these transactions. A large number of transactions are required to shift the
price. The Forex market is said to trade $4,000,000,000,000 per day. The
bulk of the transactions are carried out by large institutions, not by small
traders. Therefore, the bulk of transactions made by small traders will be
made with larger institutions. This also means that a price is moved
predominantly as a result of what the large institutions are doing with
currency. Their ability to dominate the market is overwhelming. It costs
about 10,000 lots to move the market by one pip. MM’s have the ability to
move price at will retail traders do not. So for a retail trader to be truly
successful, they need to at least have a concept of this process so that they
understand what is happening and why. Even better, to be able to identify
the patterns and strategies that MM’s use to play the game and to the ‘piggy
back’ with them rather than attempt to trade against them.
In relation to learning and using this material, it involves changing the way
you think about the market and it will be necessary to do the homework,
absolutely essential to learn to spot the patterns. You won’t be able to see
them setting up if you can’t see them in hindsight. Even after you are
proficient, it will still be worthwhile going through setups on historical data
to ‘keep your eye in’.
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H O M E W O R K E X E R C I SE S
EXERCISE 1
Identify a peak formation high and a peak formation low. Then identify all
the features of the 3 tiered cycle within both on a 3 day and an intraday
cycle.
Understand that they will not all looked perfect but nonetheless there are
variations on the theme and being able to identify the variations is
fundamentally important.
EXERCISE 2
Examine one or more cycles and put yourself behind the screen. In other
words, imagine you are the market maker and what you would need to do
at different times to trap traders and book your own profit. You will need to
consider "where the money is", what might drive traders to behave in
certain ways and then consider the methods that have been put forward
including circular trading, stop hunting, testing patience, and so on.
EXERCISE 3
Choose a pair, one of the majors, go back and look at the course of 5 to 10
days of trading and try to identify the key features. The features need to
include:
EXERCISE 4
Make a list of all of the patterns, features and characteristics that have been
discussed. Create a definition or description for each of them.
EXERCISE 5
Find the expected high/low for the day on the 6 majors using Pivot
calculations.
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EXERCISE 6
Choose a pair and find and mark-up the divergence patterns using the RSI.
EXERCISE 7
Use TDI in the context of the MM pattern and mark up the entry and exit
signals based on TDI
EXERCISE 8
Find and identify examples of the Straightaway Trade. Mark them out,
particularly looking for previous trap moves and the levels.
EXERCISE 9
Describe the processes and patterns of a 24 hour trading cycle.
EXERCISE 10
Find stop hunts, M’s W’s, Trend Runs, MYC’s, 200 Bounce, Shark Fin
Long/Short on a single pair. If you can’t see it in hindsight, you will never
see it in foresight.
EXERCISE 11
Create a MMM Checklist that relates to the trades you will be looking for,
the specifics of your scanning, and how you will be taking those trades,
including money management, profit targets and so on.
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F O R E X M A R K E T S E S SI O N S
J A P A N /A S I A
00:30 - 07:00 GMT
EUROPEAN
07:30 - 13:00 GMT
US
13:30-20:30 GMT
Note 1. The equities open is at 9:30 AM ET and this is an important place to start looking for the NYC
reversal.
Note 2. The Gap time refers to a changeover period between markets and this is usually a quiet period
and represents a period when one markets office sets up plans with the opening markets office.
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W H A T I S T H E M A R KE T M A KE R ?
In trading currencies, market makers function as intermediaries in sales and
purchases between two parties and two currencies. For example a bank will
function as a market maker when it collects sellers of the US Dollar to then
sell to investors who have Euros in exchange. The value of each currency is
based on the current market value.
⋅ quick moves
⋅ spike candles
⋅ news releases
⋅ ‘inexplicable’ price behaviour.
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The only tools they have are to be able to buy or sell currency in different
volumes at different prices. By doing this strategically, they can:
While these price movements are used to trap traders into unfavourable
positions, they are not used 24 hours a day, but will be used more at certain
times. The patterns are most commonly observed in the following time
periods :
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Usually, trader’s transactions are dealt with ‘in house’ and never make it to
the interbank market so it is very easy for them to manipulate price to their
own advantage. They have a number of additional tools at their disposal
and include:
1. Requoting
2. Trigger all stops in a given price range (which is part of the dealers
functions in the MT4 platform)
3. Vary the spread (which is why scalping methods often fail) at times
when it is an advantage to them to do so.
4. Throw a price spike to take stops out, bear in mind that they know
where the stops are.
5. Target traders who are in margin trouble and move price against
their positions to “finish them off”. Again bear in mind that they
know who is in trouble because it is part of their backend platform.
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C H A R T O B SE R V A T I O N S
For example, the 1st push or candle may be a full 25 pips. At this point price
may be held for 3 or 4 candles taking a full hour. At this point it is pushed up
another 20 pip making a total of 45 pips from the top of the Asian range and
finally another 5 to 7 pip on top of that. The effect of each these moves as
follows:
1. Range traders who have taken short positions at the top of the Asian
range will have a stoploss somewhere between 25 and 50 pips from
this point. Therefore the initial 25 pip push will take-out the 1st of
the stops.
2. The 1st upward movement will begin to entice traders to take long
positions on the basis of a breakout trade.
3. This is accentuated by the following period of consolidation where
price is being held and traders will be expecting a continuation
pattern to develop.
4. It is further accentuated with the next 20 pip push further enticing
long positions as price has now been rising for an hour and a half.
5. The last 5 to 7 pip is about taking the last of the 50 pip stop loss’s
from the range traders. The last move is almost always just a tap,
identified as a pin. The main reason for this is that it costs money to
move the market and this is a cheaper option for the MM.
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The time gap between the 2 peaks of the M or W will usually last for
somewhere between 30 and 90 min (though occasionally longer). The
fastest occurs when the pattern is defined by a railroad track (in other words
15 min up followed by 15 min down). Longer periods are also common and
used to gradually accumulate more positions of traders who are enticed into
taking trades in the direction of the technical trend.
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TRAPPING VOLUME
At a peak formation low or a peak formation high, several spikes may appear
which are all apparently contained by a trend-line. But what is really
happening here? The MM is trapping volume and it is important to notice
that each subsequent spike it is not lower (or higher) than the previous so
that any new trades taken in the direction of the spike do not have an
opportunity to become profitable. They become trapped.
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In the example below, you can observe that on the lower boundary of the
wedge, the peaks become slightly higher each time it comes down to the
line. This has the effect of ensuring that none of the trades that are taken
short in these regions can turn a profit. Similarly, on the upper boundary of
the wedge, the same thing is happening with each of the peaks becoming
progressively lower and trapping the higher level longs and pulling them
down.
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Simply buy the Level III corrections and sell 3rd level rises.
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Each time price moves down a level they can be referred to as achieving or
making either a Level I, Level II or a Level III move.
Level I and Level II have relatively similar patterns of behaviour (1-2-3 stop
hunt). However Level III tends to be choppy with a wide range and
represents an area of profit-taking for the institutions and signifies the
beginning of an accumulation period for another cycle.
The reasons for this behaviour can be understood if you consider what
happens during the rundown:
1. On day one, you (the retail trader) are selling and the institution
buys from you.
2. On day two, you are selling and again the institution buys from you.
3. However, on day three the retail trader is again interested in selling
and the institution buys up heavily.
4. Now they move price up aggressively triggering stops and taking a
profit. (In effect, they are using a scaling-in method to book their
profit).
5. Following a Level III pullback price becomes choppy and continues
because of what happens with the trader’s psychological adaptation
to loss. After the market has run down for three days and traders
have taken losses, these individuals react by pulling away from the
market quite literally and having a few days off before coming back
to trade. During this period the market is choppy and relatively
stagnant until the traders have returned to play in the game again.
Also, it is again worth remembering that the patterns are similar in different
time frames. Additionally, the areas of reversal in both are often
synchronised so that they occur at the same time in different timeframes.
Using this knowledge it is possible to convert a spot trade into a swing trade
when you enter it from a peak formation high peak formation low. If you are
prepared to continue adding to your position as the trade progresses in your
direction, it is possible to make very large profits as the whole move might
be as much as 300-400 pip with numerous possibilities for supplementary
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entries. Another way of recalling this key issue is "The patterns are the same
no matter the timeframe".
So it is obviously important to count the levels so that you know what part
of the cycle price is in at the current time. Quite obviously if you are able to
enter a trade at these peak reversals then you are in a good situation to run
your trade for the full extent of its journey.
So, to win in the market you should only take a long position when the
LOD/HOD is clear. This is the only place that has a high level of certainty in
directional movement.
This includes looking for a midweek reversal which will generally correlate
with one or both of the intraday reversals.
With an awareness of the longer cycle and assuming you are in the correct
place within the cycle, it is possible to convert a spot trade to a swing trade
from one of the 3 day cycle peaks to the other given an appropriate entry.
This would involve going from one peak formation high to the next peak low
and may take several days.
This occurs because Bank A will buy a quantity of currency from Bank B [1].
This causes price to rise. This is followed by bank B selling the same
currency to Bank C [2]and this causes price to fall. This process goes around
in circles and so the price simply oscillates back and forth.
After a while, the range begins to widen [3]. This has the effect of triggering
pending orders placed by breakout traders. So positions become committed
and gradually accumulate as more and more traders begin to ‘take the bait’.
However, when they are triggered, price is quickly pulled away and they will
often be stopped out on the other side of the range which is also widening.
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T H E S T O P H U N T – A L S O D E F I N I N G T H E H OD / L OD
Sometime between 1 – 4am ET, they make a stop hunt. The stop hunt
involves a deliberate movement outside of the range to what will become
the high or low of the day. The move usually occurs in three pushes which
can be as simple as three candles though you will sometimes see a small
pause in the form of a pullback in the middle of this.
This is the preferred point of entry for most of these trades, particularly the
second leg of the M or W. It is relatively slow moving and so there should be
no reason to rush or impulsively take a trade.
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O T H E R B E H A V I O U R S A T T H E H OD /L OD R E V E R S A L
Market-makers induce traders to take the wrong direction by using sharp
and aggressive moves near the high or low of the day. One of the ways of
identifying that you are in the right place is that the market will seem to be
quiet, in consolidation and make a sharp move out of the range, faking "the
breakout".
If you were to take a trade in the area of the HOD/LOD you might notice that
price is moving around but your position changes little. If you are looking at
the price board you will see that it is "flickering red and blue" with lots of
changes suggesting that there is lots of activity but in fact there is little.
When you see this at the right time of the day, you know that the reversal is
imminent.
Another observation during this period is that the spread widens. This is
done so that a broader range of orders can be collected and accumulated
during this period, making it even more difficult for traders to take profit as
they are in a losing position right from the outset. The diagram below
demonstrates what happens to the spread during this period.
But these patterns do fail sometimes. This occurs when there has not been
enough volume to make it worth their while to take a reversal. In these
situations that price is moved to the next level to further induce positions to
be taken in the wrong direction, against what is to become true trend. This
is called the extended stop hunt.
Or
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Like before, this move will be in the 25 – 50 pip range and be comprised of 3
candles or pushes. But also like before this is not necessarily the case and
more or less are also possible. Again the trader must use their own
judgement and discretion.
Therefore, if you identify that after a period of time the stop hunt has not
led to a reversal then you should scratch trade. An appropriate period of
time is 2 hours following the 2nd leg of an M or W. It the trader has not
moved in the expected direction by this time, something is wrong and they
have not been able to build up enough volume to make it worthwhile to
reverse the market.
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This trend tends to move in three waves, the pause between each wave
representing a new opportunity to fake out traders by reversing direction
and then moving against them again. These pauses are often characterised
by sideways movement rather than a significant retracement though both
are possible
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T H E O P P O S I T E L OD /H O D A N D R E V E R S A L
Ultimately the opposite LOD/HOD will be reached and there will be another
reversal. This often occurs in the NY session, called the NYC Reversal Trade.
This trade is likely to return a smaller profit than the initial stop hunt
reversal trade though it is still worth taking particularly if you are not able to
enter a trade following the London open.
A RETURN TO ACCUMULATION
Once the reversal has occurred, price tends back toward the centre, often
not far from the starting point and recommences a new period of
accumulation to lead into the new Dharma period and tomorrow’s cycle.
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LEARNING TO COUNT
Understanding the count of the intraday pattern, the 3 day pattern, and the
weekly pattern is everything. If you understand these 3 things then you can
expect to be better than 90 or 95% accurate.
Market-makers form zones or levels to trap traders, hit stops and book
profits.
As a trader, your 1st job is to identify the zones, particularly the current
place in the cycle.
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During the consolidation they hit stops up, hit stops down and then
drop it again.
You should never trade against the Peak Formation out of Level I
Consolidation.
This is also the most common place for a Straight Away Trade to
develop because the market-makers already have what they need,
which is people trapped from the previous reversal.
Again, they hit the stops up, hit stops down and then drop price
again to Level III.
4 . L E V E L I II
Having reached Level III, the objective is a little different. Price will
be dropped in order to demonstrate further bearish movement by
satisfying various criteria of the traders. However, they then pull
away quickly, move price up and book a profit.
Level III will appear disorganised with price chopping back and forth,
usually within a wide range. If you are having difficulty identifying
what level you are currently in, then identify the last Level III and
this should give you a point of reference depending on whether or
not price has been coming to the Level III zone from above or below
and what has happened since.
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CHART SETUP
The method can be traded with little or no indicators on the chart. However
to make things easier a number of features and indicators can be added at
your discretion. These include:
1. Candlestick patterns
2. EMA’s 5/13/50/200
3. Colour-coded sessions
4. Yesterday's HOD/LOD marker
5. Pivots
6. TDI
7. MM level counts
1. SPIKE CANDLES
This description includes spike candles, "Empire State candles" and
oversized candles in a 15 min chart. These candles are designed to
"get you excited", trade emotionally, and encourage you to enter
the market. However, price is pulled back before the candle is
closed and those traders who entered on the excitement then find
themselves trapped.
These candles are most often seen in the 1st leg of a reversal set up.
But it is important to remember that price will almost always pull off
very quickly.
The other place that these candles are often seen is at Level III of
the three-day cycle.
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News spike candles should not be used as a point of entry. You will often
observe that a news spike candle pushes up very quickly and then down
quickly or vice versa. Those who straddle news spike candles will sometimes
find that it work when they try this on demo accounts however, when it is
used in a live market the entries are pushed to the outer extremities of the
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spikes ensuring that they obtain the worst possible fill. Then they quickly
pull back to the other side and will be stopped out. News candles are really
nothing more than a means for banks, brokers and dealers to grab your
money.
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E M A' S
Moving averages, when used in the appropriate way (i.e. in the context of
the market maker methodology) can give:
The specific EMA's used in Mauro's charts are the 5, 13, 50 and 200 bar
EMA's.
Note that the 200 EMA represents the 50 EMA on the next higher
timeframe. So, if you are examining the 15 min chart, the 200 EMA
represents the current trend on an hourly chart. In this way you can see the
hourly trend on a 15 min chart.
The 50 and 200 EMA's are used almost universally by institutions and are
even reported in public announcements. Crossovers of these EMA's can be
used as buy and sell signals.
The 5 and 13 EMA's happen to match up the TDI used by Mauro and provide
responsive signals. He notes however that any other rapidly moving pair of
EMA's would achieve the same goal.
The context of the EMA's is important. If you are in Level III the EMA's will
almost certainly be heading in the wrong direction. However, when a
reversal occurs, the EMA crossover will follow and this will provide a
confirmation of the direction that has been taken.
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Also, when the EMA's are spread out and Level III can be identified, it is
likely that the trend will be getting ready to collapse. The EMA's will follow
rather than lead.
It is very important that you accept and understand that no indicator will
have the ability to identify when a trade should be entered. The pattern and
the count remain the most important features. In fact, many people who
use this method do not use the indicators at all. Identifying the count and
the patterns is central and is enough to trade successfully.
An exception exists though, if you are having difficulty identifying the count
on a price chart because there is too much noise, then using a rapid EMA
such as the EMA-5, can show the patterns quite clearly.
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C O L O U R -C O D E D S E S S I O N S
Two boxes can be drawn.
The 1st is drawn around the Asian session and simply denotes the area of
consolidation that is expected during this period. It does not mean that a
range can only be broken outside of this box. It does not mean that you
should not identify smaller ranges that occur during this period. It is just a
guide.
The 2nd is a smaller box and highlights a time when there is a high
probability of the midsession reversal (the New York Reversal). It starts at
the beginning of the NY open and runs for about 3 hours.
If this period also encases the ADR high or low then the likelihood of reversal
in or around this area is even more likely. However, as before this is not the
only place that reversals can occur and should be treated as a guide only.
During this period, it is most important that you maintain "the count"
because this will be a key feature telling you whether or not a reversal is
likely.
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P R E V I O U S H O D /L O D M A R K E R S
The high and low prices from the previous day were used by the market
maker to trap volume. It is therefore significant to know how price acts at
these levels the following day. These levels will often line up with other
support and resistance zones.
When this occurs, it is not uncommon to see price approach the line, and
"throw a spike" over the line. At other times price might approach but not
quite reach the previous high or low. This tells you that the current price is
already on the correct side. You will therefore expect the price to "bounce
down” or “bounce up" as the case may be. This will most often occur
around the time of the London open. You should recall that this is likely to
be part of the market makers aim of keeping traders trapped. If they've
already made a high for instance, and there are positions trapped here then
they will not want to push price above it again but will then approach it,
perhaps even spike with an enlarged spread and pull away again.
So this becomes another piece of the puzzle to help identify where the
"strike zones" are likely to be.
AD R H I G H A N D L O W
The ADR is normally plotted as an oscillator. It is however difficult to read in
this format and Mauro has produced a version which is read on the price
chart and provides a high and low value.
Understanding the ADR and where the high and low targets might be on the
basis of the ADR can help to determine areas where reversals might be likely
to occur.
As with other indicators the real strengths of the ADR occurs when its values
coincide with other indicators being used. These would particularly include
the pivot point or with a 50 or 200 moving average.
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PIVOTS
Pivot points are a widely available indicator that provide a "grid" based on
the previous day's range. As a grid, they can provide a clue about where
today's high or low might sit. As with other indicators, their strength really
appears when there is a confluence of signals.
In effect, the pivot levels are a grid of the ADR because they are based on
the high, low, and close of the previous day's candle.
So, if the previous day's candle was red then this indicates that today might
be an M1/M3 day. (This means that price will move between the M1 and
M3 pivots)
Alternately, if the previous day's candle was green then this indicates that
the day might be an M2/M4 day. (This means that price will move between
the M2 and M4 pivots).
Not surprisingly, when you consider these points on your charts you will
often find that they are located 25 to 50 points above or below the Asian
range.
Similarly, if you are able to enter a trade at the HOD then it is possible that a
reasonable target may be at the M1 or M2. This can help when you are
following the trend and trying to avoid early exits on pullbacks. Note that
understanding the count is probably more effective but the pivots provide
further confirmation.
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There are some situations where pivots are inaccurate. If the previous day's
range has been unusually large or unusually small then their predictive value
is poor.
As with all the indicators, the trader has to act as a filter and be able to
interpret that filter in the context of information being provided by the
other indicators. And, be aware that the price action or chart patterns
override everything else. The indicators are only there to provide a guide.
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RS I
The RSI:
1. Is based on the close and does not tend to react to price spikes.
2. Helps to confirm shift in momentum. This is further demonstrated
by crossover of the EMA 50 and this is a significant confirmation
when you have seen the reversal (e.g. via an M pattern).
3. The crossing of its baseline represents a cross shift in momentum.
So this pattern confirms what you are seeing on the price and on the
EMA's.
4. The overbought and oversold conditions of the RSI are seen at the
extremes. When this occurs, in the right context of course, then you
will be expecting to see M or W formations in the RSI itself.
5. Is also excellent for spotting divergence. This means that when the
market maker is throwing an extra spike to entice traders to
continue further into that direction, the RSI filters this out because it
is based on the close. Consequently, a trend line on the price may
show an increasing movement because it is based on the highs,
while the RSI may be flat or even reducing. This is the divergence.
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TD I ( T R A D E R S D Y N A M I C I N D E X )
The TDI is an improved version of the RSI and is really a hybrid of a number
of different indicators. It incorporates a number of lines:
1. They act as support and resistance lines based on the close which is
much stronger
2. When the bands re-contain the RSI line after breakout, it is a sign of
weakening and an impending reversal. This represents a stop hunt.
3. When viewed in the proper context, they can identify stop hunts,
entries and exits
3. Scaling-in positions
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CONFLUENCE OF SIGNALS
Some patterns and signals when seen in combination provide very high
probability setups. Overall though you must consider:
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T R E N D A S SE S SM E N T
There are 2 types of trend in the market place. There is the MM Trend, or
the True Trend and the Technical Trend.
The true trend is set by the market maker and can be reversed at any time.
Understanding this key issue in important because it allows you to be free of
the trend bias that tends to keep people locked into wanting to trade in a
fixed or single direction. The trend can move in both directions, and as the
MM’s can change the trend at will, so should you.
Identifying where you are in the count will help project the next move. It is
important not to become married to this projection, because the MM is
more than capable of changing trend several times in a short period of time.
These moves will often have other roles with regard to triggering stops and
having traders enter on the basis of a technical trend while the True Trend
turns out to be different.
The hourly chart will often remove some of the noise created by the faster
15 min chart and can be useful to review the trend. A 4 hourly chart will
often highlight the peak formation highs and lows even more clearly as a pin
bar or a RRT formation. But a daily chart is too slow to identify the patterns
use fully.
If you identify areas where the patterns all line up, for example, a 4 hourly
pin bar, with an hourly RRT and a 15 min W/M then the indications are very
strong for a reversal at this point.
The intraday trend usually lines up with the higher time frames. It typically
begins at the stop hunt (except in a straightaway when it starts out of the
Asian session).
While trading the intraday Sessions it is still important to step back and look
at the bigger picture. For example, if, on the three-day cycle you are at a
Level III move then you will expect the charts to demonstrate a Technical
Trend. However because of the position in the cycle, you also know that the
trend should be coming to an end and a collapse and reversal is imminent.
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MMM Notes
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MMM Notes
C O M P ON E N T S OF A T R A D I N G S Y S T E M
The 1st thing to consider is that you must have a reason for entering the
market. Essentially this involves:
1. A setup and in this case will include understanding where the level
count is, and what your assessment of true trend direction is going
to be.
2. There must be a signal present for entering or staying out
1. A stop hunt usually in the form of a pin formation to the high or the
low
2. The development of W or M
Once you understand how the market is structured there are really only four
trades that you should be looking for. These trades are better than 90%
accurate and can provide enormous success.
When looking for the setups it is important that the setups are clear to you
and well-defined. If they do not present themselves then the object of the
exercise is to move on and come back tomorrow.
So when you "turn up to the office" every day the general plan will be to:
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MMM Notes
RU LE S TO PROFIT
1. Stop trading every day.
2. Show up every day, but if there is no set up then there is no trade.
3. Learn to become highly selective
4. Trading hours should be from the end of the Asian session and into
the London open for 4 hours. Then take a break. Then look for
reversal setups at the opening of the US session for 2 - 4 hours.
5. Always enter positions in their consolidation levels where possible.
This should be done when there have been a number of signals or
triggers at a time when you believe the HOD or LOD has been or is
forming. If you do not, if you take trades after price has begun
moving, then you are effectively chasing the trade which has a
negative effect on the size of your stoploss, and therefore the size of
your trade and therefore profitability.
6. Ensure that you only trade on the basis of closed candles, preferably
with multiple confirmations.
7. Only take trades at the peak formation highs and lows on the
intraday cycle. This will be an even stronger signal if it also lines up
with a peak formation high or low in the three-day cycle.
8. Rather than aiming to make many pips per day to achieve your
income targets, use a method which is highly reliable and ramp up
your contract size.
Why did we become traders? For time, freedom and leverage. "But
because we sucked out it we lost sight of what we were supposed to be
doing". Because you are trying to be highly selective you don't have to be in
front of your computer all the time. Instead, be selective and therefore
more focused on what you're looking for. When you're learning, aim to
make 50 pips per day.
Remember if you make 50 pips per day and are trading 1 lot, you will make
$500 and if you are trading 10 lots you will make $5,000. But if you make 50
pips per day and are trading 50 lots you make $25,000. If you are confident
with your setups and your level of accuracy you can afford to trade heavily.
Most people only trade smaller sizes because they are only guessing at the
direction the trade is going to travel in.
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MMM Notes
F R A C T I ON A L D I S P A R I T Y
Looking at a collection of one hour charts allows you to examine what level
each of the pairs is in and to understand interactions between the pairs.
For example:
1. Consider the commodities pairs (AUD, CAD), and as they get to Level
III they will be choppy.
2. At the same time EUR, GBP & CHF will be at Level II.
3. So while they are rising toward Level III and the commodity pairs are
holding their crosses will be handled.
4. So, if AUD goes to Level III and is in a choppy period, it means that
AUDEUR, AUDJPY, AUDCHF are being worked. These could be
better options to look for a clean setup.
These observations are not essential for understanding this model, or for
making a profit. But it can explain why you might sometimes take a trade
with reasonable criteria and it doesn't seem to move. At these times, you
will often be able to observe the movement in the cross pairs.
Also, it can give you an edge if you are trading one pair, for example EURUSD
and it drops rapidly, perhaps not providing an entry opportunity. The
expectation then will be that it will take 1 - 2 candles for this to have a ripple
effect into one of its cross pairs, for example EURGBP.
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MMM Notes
SCANNING VIEW
Use a 1 hourly chart to quickly scan a number of currencies so that you can
ascertain what level you are at in the three-day cycle and what your
expectations are for the next intraday cycle.
You can set up an “Intraday Directional Matrix” which aims to cover the
necessary review data quickly before you start scanning for specific setups.
The matrix would include the following data:
Go through each of the pairs you are scanning, and cross off those that do
not seem interesting, the others move on to more details intraday analysis.
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MMM Notes
So after you have asked these questions, you need to make an assessment
about where you think the market is going and how you intend to take
advantage of this.
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MMM Notes
L OO K F O R S T R I K E Z ON E S
A strike zone is an area where price will find intraday support or resistance.
It therefore becomes a place where there are possible setups and exits.
They tend to be areas where there are multiple things coming together,
providing a confluence of signals.
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MMM Notes
A S U G G E S T E D R OU T I N E
The 1st thing you should do when you come to the office is check the news.
The best place to do this is at Forex Factory. Be aware that news disrupts
the technicals and should be avoided while learning. Also be aware that
news can be used to help the MM achieve their targets. It is therefore
better to avoid being in a trade while there is news on the horizon, though
once you're more experienced you'll be able to identify News setups.
As a trader your job is to identify the condition and apply the appropriate
action. The market has only 3 conditions. They are:
It is important to have a routine when you examine your chart and take
trades. The following is a suggested routine:
1. Before you hit the 15 min trading window look at the hourly chart
and verify the count and particularly observe the high or low prices.
2. In a 15 min trading window perform an intraday level count
3. Wait for or look for a channel of less than 50 Pip in the Asian range
or similar
4. Wait for or identify price moving out of this range using 3 swipes
5. Look for evidence of an M or W formation that take somewhere
between 30 to 90 min to develop
6. For additional confirmation, look for evidence that it is supported or
resisted by pivots, ADR, high low, EMA's.
7. Pull the trigger; place the stop (and the target if you plan to use a
fixed target).
8. Plan for additional entries and pull the trigger when the relevant
criteria have been met. These entries may be taken from TDI
triggers
9. As the trade progresses, continue to count and try to stay with the
trade while the count remains valid. When there is evidence that
the move has reached Level III and shows choppy behaviour or a
new reversal pattern, exit trade.
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MMM Notes
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MMM Notes
MARK ET TIMING
The best times of the day to trade are:
The best times a week to trade are related to the 3 day or weekly cycle.
Observe that the cycle starts on Sunday and you are going to expect the
midweek reversal to occur on Tuesday through Wednesday so the most
profitable days are likely to be Wednesday, Thursday, Friday (ET)
Whenever there is a US holiday expect the Asian session to be bigger and for
this to be the active session.
Most of the time, if you take only the best setups you will only have 2 to 3
trades per week. However, if you load those trades, then you can expect to
be very profitable
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MMM Notes
This represents the area of circular trading and matches with the
expected cycle.
2. The trading zone is set 25 to 50 pips higher (or lower) than the
Asian range.
The reason for this placement is that most people put their stops 25
to 50 pips behind the trades. In pairs that do not move quite as
quickly (CAD) the range is often smaller, conversely, in pairs where
price movement is more volatile (eg GBPJPY) the range is larger.
If there has not been an adequate accumulation of positions then
price may be shifted 25 pips or higher again in order to gain a
greater accumulation of positions.
3. Setups occur in the last hour of the Asian range or the first 2 - 3
hours of the European session.
This setup can occur earlier or later than these times and discretion
and judgement is required when deciding to take these trades or
not. Essentially, if the setup occurs you can trade it provided the
central features are there.
50 pips
25 pips
Accumulation Area
-25 pips
-50 pips
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MMM Notes
T H E S T R A I GH T A W A Y T R A D E
This is the most difficult trade to recognise contemporaneously. In a
Straight-Away trade the trapped move is made in the previous day or the
previous session. Leading up to non-farm payroll a trap move might occur as
much as 2 days earlier followed by extended consolidation.
So when the consolidation concludes price moves into the true trend
without a stop hunt. It is the stop hunt that we usually use to identify the
strike zone.
The key to identifying it is looking for some of the other features including:
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MMM Notes
The setup should be scratched if more than 2 hours passes between the
time the trade is taken on the 2nd leg and when price should move away. If
it has not moved within this period time and become profitable then there is
something else going on and it becomes less safe. Scratch the trade.
When this happens it is usually because there has been inadequate volume
built up and it suggests that the market will move further away from the
Asian range and go through the process again. In this situation, it is likely to
move another 25 or so pip, again a standard distance for a stoploss attached
to short positions that had already commenced on the M pattern.
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MMM Notes
If this happens, then waiting until the next level and going through the
process again is all that is required. So the small loss that might be taken on
the 1st attempt will be made up the 2nd. Occasionally this will happen a 3rd
time but this is less common.
There are some other facts that make it helpful to trade this setup better.
These include:
1. Being aware that all 3 levels do not necessarily present every day.
2. Level I and Level II average about 75 pips from peak formation high
or low to the consolidation at the end of the day.
3. You will not be able to deal from the absolute bottom or top, so you
must add 10 to 15 pips to stoploss and profit targets to account for
this.
4. You must include the spread and slippage of 5 pips on average per
pair.
1. The close of the candle that defines the 2nd leg of the M/W
represents the entry price for the trade.
2. 7 Pip above or below the 1st leg (or the 2nd leg if it happens to be
more extreme) represents the stop loss of trade.
3. An initial profit target would be set about 50 Pip from the open.
Depending on what level you are in and what part of the three-day
cycle you are in, letting the trade run further can be possible. In
these cases it makes sense to move the stop behind the last
consolidation zone once it has moved into the next zone.
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MMM Notes
STOPLOSS PLACEMENT
Stoploss placement would ideally be above the 1st swing high after the push
out of the consolidation range. This is important because it is not
uncommon or infrequent for there to be a 3rd swipe at the HOD or LOD.
If your stoploss has been hit it does not mean that the pattern necessarily
fails and you should not "go on vacation". In most cases it means that there
was not an adequate accumulation of positions at this level and the MM
decided to move 25 Pip further away to entice more and more traders to
take this direction. So the strategy on the 1st failure would simply be to wait
for price to move another 25 Pip or so further away, develop another
reversal pattern and then re-enter the trade when you see the setup
recurring.
If you do happen to be going the wrong way (i.e. against the true trend)
then it is worth recalling that if the ADR is about of 150 pip, and you know
that the market moves in 3 levels then even if you continue to enter in the
wrong direction with your signal you will eventually fall into the right trade.
This will still be profitable provided you have a tight stoploss and still
maintain a 50 Pip minimum target. This will be accentuated if you scale into
a position so that the initial stop loss is relatively small compared to the
overall scaled in position.
If you take an entry on the 1st leg of the M or W then there is an increased
likelihood that the HOD or LOD will be retested. In these situations, it is
sometimes seen that the 2nd leg will spike above the 1st leg HOD or LOD
and this needs to account for.
For this reason the stop loss will be placed further away and the stoploss of
23 Pip has been found to be effective in these situations. This allows for a
15 Pip needle or spike past the 1st leg high or low as well as a spread and
several pips of safety margin on top.
As already noted this is the much safer entry. It provides a high degree of
confirmation that the setup is correct and is required in order to take
multiple contracts with little or no drawdown.
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MMM Notes
T H E 33 T R A D E
The 33 Trade refers to having a 3 level rise over 3 days in combination with a
Level III rise on an intraday chart. If this is identified it is a strong sell signal.
In these areas, it is possible that the final consolidation will last longer than
usual and that the day will close at or near the high. These observations
provide additional evidence that a reversal is imminent rather than
suggesting that the trade is invalid.
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MMM Notes
One of the keys to this approach is to not have the stop loss too close to the
current price as follows:
1. Most often it occurs during the 1st 3 hours of the New York session
(from 8 AM ET).
2. Price will be at level III
3. The HOD and LOD have already formed
4. Price has met or exceeded the ADR
5. Price has pulled away from the moving averages
6. Price forms a candlestick reversal pattern
7. Upon the trade open the RSI/TDI confirmation should appear
8. Profit target is the EMA 50 or the middle of the range
9. You are likely get 40 to 50 pips or less
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MMM Notes
R E V E R S A L O N T H E EMA 200
The pattern, the M or W, occur right on the EMA200. If this happens, the
underlying trade has a very high likelihood of success.
1. M and W Reversals
2. Straightaway Trades
3. 33 Trade
4. Swing Trade
5. Hold the Mayo – 200 Bounce
6. 5/13 Crossover
7. Pins and Spike candles
8. Pivot Level Holds or Rejects
9. 3 Level Rise/Drop
10. Shark Fin
11. Half a Batman
12. Divergence
13. Stop Hunt
14. Hourly Close
S U M M A R I S E T HE E X I T S
The exits would be more or less the same as listed above, at the opposite
side.
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MMM Notes
RISK LEVEL
When you are learning, the aim is to take a 1 – 3% risk per trade, but when
you are proficient (hitting 9 – 10), then increase the per trade risk to 5% of
your account balance.
S T OP L O S S W H E N S C A L I N G I N
Assume that you scale in the following ratio – 5:4:3:2:1
If you have a good setup, it provides a safer way of gaining profit, you have
to identify only one setup rather than many and you simply capitalise on
good trade rather than trying to take numerous trades of mediocre quality.
If you have multiple orders on and you can identify that you have the
midweek reversal, consider holding the trade and converting it to a swing
trade for 2 more days. If you have moved the Stop Loss to BE or better
already, you can’t lose, but if it goes for 200 pip then you will make this on
each of the orders – it will be very profitable.
TRAILING STOPS
If you want to use a trailing stop at any time because can’t stay with the
trade, then set it to 32 pips, this seems to provide the best results for getting
50 pip targets.
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MMM Notes
INDEX
1
H
1 pip movement, 4
HOD/LOD Markers, 39
Hold the Mayo, 66
A Homework Exercises, 6
ADR High and Low, 39 Ecercise 6, 7
Exercise 1, 6
Exercise 10, 7
C Exercise 11, 7
Candlestick Patterns, 33 Exercise 2, 6
Chart Observations, 12 Exercise 3, 6
3 Day Cycle, 2, 20 Exercise 4, 6
False S&R, 18 Exercise 5, 6
Half Batman, 18 Exercise 8, 7
Hi Lo, 17 Exercise 9, 7
M & W, 14
Stop Hunt, 12 I
Trapping Volume, 15
Wedges, 16 Intraday Patterns, 22
Weekly, 2, 19 Accumulation, 22
Chart Setup, 33 Extended Stop Hunt, 26
Colour-Coded Sessions, 38 HOD/LOD Other Behaviour, 25
Components of a Trading System, 49 LOD/HOD, 23
Counting, 30 Stop Hunt, 2, 23, 26, 65, 66
3 Day Cycle, 30 The NY Reversal, 2, 28
Intraday, 32 True Trend, 27
Level I, 31
Level II, 31 M
Level III, 31
M or W Setup, 61
Peak Formation High, 31
Market Maker, 9
Peak Low, 32
ADR, 10
As Intermediary, 9
D IMF, 10
Dealers and Brokers, 11 Objectives, 9
Times, 10
Tools, 10
E Traps, 10
EMA's, 36
P
F Pivots, 40
Forex Daily Volume, 4 Price, 4
Forex Market Sessions, 8
European, 8 R
High Low Reset, 8
Japan/Asia, 8 Risk, 67
US, 8 RSI, 42
S
Scanning View, 52
68 | P a g e
MMM Notes
Stoploss, 63
T
Straightaway, 59
Strike Zones, 54 The 33, 64
Swing Trade, 65 Trading Zone, 58
Trend Assessment, 47
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MMM Notes
P E R S O N A L O B SE R V A TI O N S
T H E PT I N D I C A T O R O N A 5 M I N U T E C H A R T
The PT stop dots when used on a 5 minute chart will almost always be
against the true trend at the time of entry. However, it should change very
soon after.
Also, once it has changed bias is with the True Trend, then it is likely to
remain synchronous for the duration of the trade.
So the trade should only be exited if price has moved to a LIII and shown
evidence of reversal or, … if the PT changes bias before this has occurred.
T H E 250T C H A R T
The 250T chart can be a good place to take additional entries, waiting for
price to cross to the correct side of the rapid smoothed TMA provided that
the EMA-50 is heading the same direction. If the EMA is against the planned
movement, withhold additional entries until it is.
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MMM Notes
SUMMARY QUIZ
1. W H A T I S TH E M A R K E T M A KE R ?
2. W H A T A R E T H E MM’ S M O TI V A T I O N S ?
In many respects market maker is like any other trader. The primary
motivation is to make a profit from the market. Like most large
companies that aim to make a profit, this may be at the expense of
others in the marketplace.
Nonetheless, this is the market maker did not exist and did not take
an active role in the market it is likely that there would not be
enough price movement to make it worthwhile to trade. The
market maker is an essential element.
3. W H A T T O O L S D O E S T H E MM H AV E TO W O R K T H E M A R KE T ?
The market maker has very limited tools in reality. They are quite
simply to buy and sell in quantities and prices geared towards
moving the overall market price. This movement is then aimed
towards enticing other market players to buy or sell at prices that
will be advantageous to the market maker will be advantageous to
the market maker when they deliberately move price back in the
opposite direction.
4. W H A T I S TH E A N AT O M Y O F T H E A SI A N R A N G E S T O P H UN T ?
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MMM Notes
5. W H A T I S T H E P U R P O SE , I N MM T E R M S , O F A N D M O R W
FORMATION?
the 1st leg of the M encourages traders to take positions in line with
the technical trend. It usually involves 3 swipes which is a
psychological tool to help encourage traders to believe that this is
the correct direction.
At the peak of the 1st leg, price is pulled away which has 2 effects.
The 1st is that with the benefit of a spiking candle encourages other
traders to take short positions against the technical trend. The 2nd
is that some of the traders who had been induced is taking long
positions after the 3rd candle will be stopped out at a lower price.
Price is then pulled back down. All the long positions will be
stopped out a lower price (which books a further profit for the
market maker). Prices that allowed to move in the direction of the
"true trend" which is directed/managed by the market maker.
6. H O W D O E S TH E MM T R AP V O LUM E ?
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MMM Notes
The market maker traps volume by moving price in such a way that
it encourages traders to move in a fixed direction but then pulls
price away so that they are not in a winning position. Further
volume can be trapped by re-approaching the peak of these prices.
The prices are not exceeded however because this would give an
opportunity for retail traders to book a profit or escape from the
trade at breakeven. With ghostly
7. W H A T I S T H E I M P O R T A N C E O F M A I N T A I N I N G T H E VA LI D I TY
OF HIGHS AND LOWS?
If you have identified the HOD or the LOD correctly then provided
price stays within these parameters (i.e. low the HOD or above the
LOD) the trade remains valid.
If the HOD and LOD are broken however the trade taken on this
basis becomes invalid.
8. W H A T A R E F A L SE S UP P O R T A N D R E SI S TA N C E LE V E L S ?
9. W H A T I S A H A LF B A T M A N P A TT E R N ?
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MMM Notes
11. D E SC R I BE T H E 3 D A Y C Y C LE .
The three day cycle is similar to the weekly cycle in some ways
though it is probably better structured. It involves moving through
three levels. It starts from a Peak Formation Low (LFH), which is also
the end of the previous cycle. It then has a Level I rise and stalls in
consolidation for a period. It then makes another push, the Level II
rise ?????????????????????????????
12. D E SC R I BE T H E I N TR A D A Y P R I C E C Y C LE .
13. W H A T I S TH E A C C U M U L A T I O N P H A SE ?
14. W H A T I S T H E S T O P H U N T A N D H O W D O E S IT R E LA T E T O T H E
HOD/LOD?
15. W H A T O T H E R P R I C E B E H A V I O U R S AR E SE E N A R O U N D T H E
HOD/LOD R E V E R SA L ?
16. W H A T I S A N E X TE N D E D S T O P H U N T A N D W H Y D O E S I T
O C C UR ?
17. W H A T I S TH E T R U E T R E N D AN D H O W D O E S I T D I F F E R F R O M
THE TECHNICAL TREND?
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MMM Notes
18. W H A T U S UA L LY H A P P E N S W H E N P R I C E M O V E S F R O M T H E
L O N D O N HOD/LOD I N T O TH E NY SE S S I O N ?
19. H O W D O E S T H E D A Y U S U A L LY E N D AN D W H E R E D O E S I T
O F TE N E N D ?
20. W H A T D O E S “ M AI N T AI N I N G TH E C O UN T M E A N ?
21. I S T H E R E A R E LA TI O N S H I P B E T W E E N T H E I N TR AD A Y C O UN T
A N D T H E M U LT I D AY C O U N T ?
22. W H A T I S A P E AK F O R M A T I O N H I G H O R A P E A K F O R M A TI O N
LO W ?
23. D E SC R I BE T H E C H A R A C TE R I S T I C S O F L E V E L I AN D T H E
R E LA TE D C O N S O L I D A T I O N .
24. D E SC R I BE T H E C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S O F L E V E L II A N D T H E
R E LA TE D C O N S O L I D A T I O N .
25. D E SC R I BE T H E C H A R A C T E R I S TI C S O F L E V E L III A N D T H E
R E LA TE D C O N S O L I D A T I O N .
26. W H A T C A N D LE ST I C K P A T T E R N S M I G H T B E U S E F U L A N D I N
W H A T C O N T E XT ?
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MMM Notes
27. D E SC R I BE T H E EMA’ S U SE D A N D H O W TH E Y A R E T O B E U SE D .
28. W H Y U SE TI M E BO X E S ?
30. W H A T I S TH E ADR H I G H / L O W A N D H O W A R E T H E Y U SE D ?
31. H O W A R E P I V O T S U SE D ?
32. W H A T I S TH E RSI A N D H O W I S I T U SE D ?
33. W H A T I S TH E TDI A N D H O W I S I T U SE D ?
34. W H A T I S M E A N T B Y A “ C O N F LUE N C E O F S I G N A L S ”?
35. D E SC R I BE T H E P R O C E S S O F T R E N D A S SE S SM E N T .
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MMM Notes
36. W H A T A R E T H E C O M P O N E N T S O F A T R A D I N G SY S TE M ?
37. W H A T O T H E R ‘ R U LE S ’ C A N B E A P P L I E D TO M A X I M I S E P R O F I T ?
38. W H A T I S F R A C T I O N A L D I SP AR I T Y ?
39. H O W SH O U LD Y O U S C A N T H E C H A R TS ?
40. D E SC R I BE A M O R E D E T AI L E D V I E W O F C H AR T E X A M IN A T I O N ?
41. W H A T A R E T H E S T R I KE Z O N E S , A N D H O W D O Y O U U S E T H E M ?
42. D E SC R I BE H O W TH E C H A R T S W I L L BE SE T UP .
43. D E SC R I BE A R O U T I N E F O R A S S E S SI N G TH E C H AR T S .
44. D E SC R I BE A R O UT I N E F O R A S SE S S I N G E A C H C H A R T A N D T H E
CHAR TS OVERALL.
45. W H A T A R E T H E B E S T T I M E S TO A C H I E V E T R A D AB LE SE T UP S
A N D W H A T T Y P E S O F S E T U P S S H O U LD B E I D E N T I F I E D I N
THEM?
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MMM Notes
46. D E SC R I BE T H E 2 N D L E G M O R W S E T UP .
47. D E SC R I BE T H E N E W Y O R K R E VE R SA L T R A D E
48. D E SC R I BE T H E 200 B O UN C E T R A D E
49. D E SC R I BE T H E S T R AI G H T A W A Y T R A D E .
50. D E SC R I BE T H E 33 T R A D E
51. D E SC R I BE T H E S W IN G T R A D E
52. W H A T S T O P L O S S S H O U LD B E U S E D I F Y O U T A K E A 1 S T LE G
TRADE?
53. W H A T S T O P L O S S SH O U LD B E U SE D I F Y O U TA K E A 2 N D L E G
TRADE?
54. H O W SH O U LD P Y R A M I D P O SI T I O N S A D D E D ?
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55. H O W W IL L S T O P LO S S E S BE M O V E D W H E N Y O U A D D T O T H E
P O S I TI O N ?
56. O N C E T H E T R AD E H A S B E E N T AK E N , H O W W I L L I T BE
M A N A G E D A N D W H E N W I L L I T BE C LO S E D .
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