EMERGENCY SIMULATION: STATE OF THE ART AND FUTURE

RESEARCH GUIDELINES

Francesco Longo
Modeling and Simulation Center – Laboratory of Enterprise Solutions (MSC-LES)
M&SNet Center at Mechanical Department, University of Calabria,
87036 Rende (CS) Italy
[email protected]

Abstract Historically the most suitable way to come up

Emergency simulation has received increasing with solutions to solve problems in real-world
attention in recent years (above all after 9/11) complex systems is a modeling & simulation
and several research works (including (M&S) based approach. Indications of
quantitative models, advanced methodologies simulation in terms of imitation of reality can
and tools) have been developed and proposed. be found throughout our history (from the
Since 2006, Emergency Simulation has very ancient Egypt culture to the Roman
become one of the most important Empire with the imitation of epic battles),
tracks/workshop of the Summer Computer only during the last century and thanks to the
Simulation Conference, SCSC, part of the unstoppable growth of digital computers, has
International Simulation Multiconference, simulation become a critical enabling
ISMC. Prior to 2006, specific tracks on technology for many scientific disciplines and
homeland security were often included in the social sciences. We note that the USA has
SCSC. The time seems right for presenting a recently recognized Modeling & Simulation as
review of the articles (mostly submitted to the a National Critical Technology for the security
Emergency Track at SCSC but also including and prosperity of the United States (the House
additional relevant articles) that address the Resolution 487).
use of simulation for emergency situations, In Banks (1998), simulation is defined as the
including, among others, disaster management imitation of the operations of a real-world
and evacuation problems (both on large and system over the time that involves the creation
small scales). To this end, we provide a of an “artificial history” of the real-system.
comprehensive overview of the main scientific According to Oren and Longo (2008)
approaches proposed (in the two areas simulation is used for two different but
indicated above) by researchers and equally important categories of usages: (i)
simulation experts. The overview in each area training and (ii) performing experiments.
is presented through a detailed description of When the “artificial history” of the system is
the research work on which it is based. used with the aim of improving the
competence on the operations of the real-
Introduction world system (and gaining knowledge about
The complexity of most of real-world systems it), then simulation is used for training
is very much related to their stochastic nature purposes. To this end, training of personnel
as well as to the interactions (at different for operations can be achieved by using virtual
levels) among their main factors and variables. simulation, constructive simulation and live
Although traditional methodologies (i.e. simulation (Kelly and Phillips). When the
analytical approaches and models) contribute “artificial history” of the real world system is
confidence and knowledge about a real-world used with the aim of performing experiments
system they provide theoretical solutions than simulation is a powerful problem solving
whose validity is very much dependent on methodology and decision support tool for
initial (and usually restrictive) assumptions. carrying out what-if analysis, evaluating
different alternatives, designing and managing
complex systems.

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In recent years, M&S has been extensively actors and information flows) and optimize
used for supporting both training and the coordination of the major emergency
experimental analysis in emergency scenarios. services. These tools are mainly based on
Topics of interest include, among others, Modeling & Simulation and are used (at
disasters management and evacuation different levels and with different modalities)
problems both on large and small scale. Since both for supporting operators and personnel
2006 an Emergency Simulation training and for the estimation of the impact of
track/workshop has been part of the SCS the disaster.
Summer Computer Simulation Conference Ontology is a suitable way for a formal
(SCSC), contributing interesting papers and representation of a disaster. An example of
providing an ideal framework for researchers ontology for representing disasters and their
and simulationists from all over the world effects and for improving simulations ability
working in this specific sector. to come up with more accurate plans for
Therefore the aim of this article is to provide emergency situations (disasters mitigation) is
the reader with a synthetic but useful literature proposed by Joshi et al. (2007). The approach
review in the Emergency Simulation area proposed by authors to model disasters
based on both the best papers submitted to the domains is based on a Web Ontology
Emergency Simulation track/workshop of the Language (OWL).
SCSC and other relevant research works. Formal representations of disasters are the
In the sequel a brief overview of the article is first steps toward the development of decision
reported. Section 2 reports on the international support tools to be used for estimating the
state of the art on the use of Emergency impact of different types of disasters and
Simulation for disaster management; the first mitigating their effects both in terms of human
part of section 3 provides a literature review life loses and damages to various
on large scale evacuation simulation models; infrastructures. However, as pointed out by
the second part presents an analogous Dudenhoeffer et al (2007), an additional
literature review on small scale evacuation aspect to be necessarily considered for
simulation models. Finally last section gives disasters management and effects mitigation is
conclusions and future research guidelines. the correct understanding of the
interdependency and vulnerabilities to the
Emergency Simulation for disasters critical portions of critical infrastructures or
management operations (the authors clearly show the need
According to the American Heritage of understanding the interdependency among
dictionary, a disaster is an event occurring critical infrastructures by used an architecture,
suddenly and causing great loss of life, called CIMS, Critical Infrastructure Modeling
damage or hardship. Similarly the Merriam- System, developed at Idaho National
Webster defines the disaster as a sudden Laboratory). Interdependency and
calamitous event bringing great damage, loss, vulnerability of critical infrastructures (in
or destruction. As matter of fact, disasters are particular supply chains) in terms resilience
unexpected events (i.e. terrorist attacks, (capability to quickly react to unforeseen and
hurricanes, fires, accidents, etc.) that bring, as catastrophic events) is also presented in Longo
consequence, unknown situations. During the and Oren (2008).
last decades severe disasters have struck The correct description of disasters domain in
violently different countries. Hurricanes like terms of concepts and object and their
Katrina, the 9/11 terrorist attacks (as well as properties and relations, the interdependency
London and Madrid bombs) are some of the among critical infrastructures involved in a
most significant disasters that have caused disaster, have to be regarded as basis for M&S
huge damages in terms of both lives of people support and planning tools for both training
and infrastructures and systems (i.e. and experimental analysis in emergency
transportations, telecommunications, etc.). scenarios. In the sequel, some relevant articles
Reduction of human life loses and economic that propose the use of simulation for both
and financial damages are the major drivers personnel training and disaster scenario
for developing tools able to model correctly a analysis are described.
disaster scenario (considering all the involved

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Kanala et al. (2008) presents a prototype of realistically simulates the radiological
web-based tool based on M&S to be used by environment.
responders for scenario analysis and Others research work directly considers the
emergency services planning. Guimarans et al. impact of disasters on specific infrastructures
(2006) focus their attention on the or systems. Bruzzone et al. (2006)
coordination and planning of the three major demonstrate the potentials of M&S as a
emergency services (Police service, Medical support tool for evaluating the impact of huge
service and Fire service) in road accidents. disasters (e.g., a Katrina style hurricane) or on
They propose a software architecture (based transportation systems in a large region (e.g., a
on simulation and combined with optimization state). The authors conduct some preliminary
algorithms) for the design of real-time analysis to correlate the alert level to the time
decision support tools to be used for the requested by refugees to reach their
coordination of the emergency services. In destination (defined as readiness). Arslan
addition to optimization algorithms, (2009) describes the application of a Tactic
Simulation is often used in combination with Nuclear Biological Chemical Attack
gaming technology; the integration of Simulation (TNBCAS) software devoted to
simulation and gaming can effectively support simulate nuclear, biological and chemical
disasters management. As stated by Jain et al. (NBC) contamination and propagation within
(2007), one of the major challenging problems a typical NBC attack scenario with respect to
in the case of integration of simulation and the atmospheric conditions and geographical
gaming is the effort required for building a characteristics. The author provides a brief
standard; to this end the authors present a very description of the simulation software
interesting architecture (to define the scope of potentials (including contamination and
simulation and gaming modules) and a diffusion models, damage assessment and
conceptual model (for organizing data software graphic user interface).
required for simulation). Finally we note the critical role played by
When simulation is combined with gaming Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in
technologies and 3D virtual environments, developing tools for disaster management.
then, in most of the cases tools developed are They are currently used as support tools, for
used for personnel training in case of many purposes (i.e. logistics planning,
emergency. Didderen et al. (2009) present a resources mapping and distribution, various
TM
training system (NIFV-ADMS ) for training information sources, etc.) and in different
of team in case of emergency. The training types of disasters. To cite just few works as
system, based on virtual simulation, has been application examples, Al-Hanbali et al. (2006)
jointly developed by the Netherlands Institute and Chang and Hsueh (2007) use GIS system
for Safety (NIFV) and ETC Simulation, USA. for two different purposes. Al-Hanbali et al.
NIFV-ADMSTM is able to reproduce (in a (2006) develop a GIS combined with a
virtual environment) different types of Hospital Mapping Software both to provide
incidents/disasters (i.e. hazardous materials users for the most common functionalities of
incidents, cars incidents, fires in both GIS databases and to analyse the actual
domestic and industrial locations, etc.). A hospital distribution in Amman city (in order
scenarios generator provides trainees with a to improve service coverage). Chang and
number of different unexpected and unknown Hsueh (2007) develop a GIS able to estimate
situations; different emergency responses are rescue demand in case of flood emergency and
available (fire brigade, polices, EMR, etc.). A provide the user with the information about
specific example of first responders training rescue supply (initial data are obtained from
(related to a well define type of disaster) by aby GIS-based disaster prediction subsystem
using M&S combined with 3D video game and rescue resource subsystem).
engine is briefly presented by Sanders and
Rhodes (2007). The authors consider as Large Scale and Small Scale Evacuation
disaster a radiological emergency and use a Simulation Models
validated engineering model, developed at the The need for large scale evacuation is mostly
Oako Ridge National Laboratory, that due to emergencies that involves civilians in
case of announced or happened disasters. A

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review of methodologies used in existing proved to be a useful tool to improve
large-scale simulation evacuation models and evacuation operation efficiency. Russo and
decision support systems is given by Pham et Vitetta (2008) aim at constructing a prototype
al. (2008). The authors review 11 models laboratory system of models for public
according to their first publication date. administration where evacuation models and
Further details of model reviewed in Pham et procedures can be implemented. Such a
al. (2008) are reported in Table 1. In addition prototype will provide public administration
to the evacuation models proposed in Table 1, with guidelines for planning and managing
a number of research works have been evacuation in an urban system under
proposed; most of them propose a M&S based emergency conditions. Oleson and Kaup
approach and deal with scheduling problems, (2006) discuss a general procedure for
evaluation of evacuation time and evacuation implementing a crowd based social potential
control and management. model. The procedure is based on the
Dixit and Radwan (2008) deal with the accomplishment of the following six phases:
optimal scheduling problems for evacuation
orders.
Model Name Year Usage Authors
NETVAC1 1982 Network Emergency Evacuation model based on a Sheffi et al.
simulator capable of estimating traffic patterns and
evacuation time on road network surrounding nuclear
power plants
CLEAR 1983 Calculates Logical Evacuation and Response model is McLean et al.
based on a microscopic simulator for evaluating
network evacuation time during a nuclear emergency
NESSY-IV 1983 Net Structure Analyzing System IV model based on a Hiramatsu
macroscopic simulator is suitable for small area and
works properly for earthquake emergencies
I-DYNEV 1980 Interactive Dynamic Network Evacuation model is Lieberman
used for emergency planning and evacuation in case
of nuclear power plant incidents
MASSVAC 1985 Mass Evacuation model is a simulation tool for the Hobeika and Jamei; Hobeika and Kim
assessment and analysis of urban area evacuation
plans.
TEVACS 1990 Transportation Evacuation System model is used for Han
emergency management and evacuation is case of
nuclear incidents. It is based on an advanced version
of the NETVAC1 simulator
REMS 1991 Regional Evacuation Modeling System model is a Tufekci and Kisko
decision support tool mainly used for traffic control
and management in case of emergencies
TEDSS 1994 Transportation Evacuation Decision Support System Hobeika
is based on MASSVAC model and used for traffic
management and evaluation of evacuation time for
nuclear power plants in Virginia
OREMS 1994 Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System is used for Rathi and Solanki; Rathi
emergency management in large scale evacuation
process and integrates a fortran based simulator, an
advanced graphic user interface and a Geographic
Information Systems
CEMPS 1996 Configurable Emergency Management and Pidd et al.
Planning System combines a discrete event
simulation model and a Geographic Informative
System to support evacuation planning
management.
D4S2 2007 Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Simulation Wu et al.
System combine san ARENA simulation model
with a GIS and SQLServer database to simulate
evacuation process and resources deployment.
Table 1 – A summary of the evacuation models reviewed in Pham et al. (2008)

A real time decision support system based on (environment, expectations, influences, model
simulation and optimization algorithms has choice, forces and force weights) and outlines

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a set of guidelines for building and testing been developed by using the object-oriented
new social potential models along with simulation tool eM-Plant.
modifications to existing models. Filippoupolitis and Gelembe (2009) develop a
Kaup et al. (2006) present a simulation model decision support system for disaster
for emergency planning and crowd management in buildings. In particular the
management purposes. In particular, the authors propose the use of a system that
model aims at simulating crowd behavior provides movement decision support to
under both panic and non-panic conditions evacuees by directing them through the
both in a constrained (room) and shortest or less hazardous routes to the exit.
unconstrained (outside) environment. The system operates in a distributed manner,
Perumalla and Beckerman (2007) propose an and computes the best evacuation routes in
analysis approach to large-scale vehicular real-time while a hazard is spreading inside
network simulations. In particular the authors the building.
first develop an analysis methodology that Ekizoglu (2009) develops and use a Simulex
could be used to solve the problem of models for analyzing the emergency
presenting usable metrics to the decision evacuation problem within the Istanbul
makers and to track the refinement of Technical University. Several evacuation
simulation result quality across multiple runs scenarios have been tested and compared in
and then apply this methodology to the terms of evacuation times.
evacuation phenomenon by developing Kobes et al. (2009) address the possibility
simplified models and observing the using virtual reality for studying human
evacuation time distributions. behavior in fires. In particular, they develop a
Small scale evacuations mainly deal with the research tool (BART, Behavioral Assessment
evacuation of people and goods from small and Research Tool) whose main aim is to
areas (i.e. buildings) in case of emergency (i.e. generate the information that fire safety
fires, bombs, etc.). Needless to say, as in the engineers need for the design of a safe
case of large scale evacuation models, most of building that complies with actual human
the proposed approaches are based on M&S behavior in fires.
(also combined with optimization algorithms)
and aim at improving the evacuation Conclusions
efficiency in terms of evacuation times, A complete survey of all significant research
assessment and analysis of evacuation plans, work developed in the Emergency Simulation
routes/path optimization. Specific studies also area is beyond the scope of this article.
focus on human behavior during evacuation. Nevertheless the literature review provided
In the sequel, some of the research works should help the reader to better understand
submitted and presented at the Emergency how Modeling & Simulation can be profitably
Simulation Track (part of the SCSC) are used for preventing disasters, mitigating their
briefly described. effects, controlling and managing emergencies
Filippoupolitis et al. (2008) address the and improving evacuation efficiency on both
building evacuation optimization problem by large and small scale. Additional efforts are
developing an agent-oriented Distributed still required to put together ideas for better
Building Evacuation Simulator (DBES). The use and integration (i.e. standardization) of
DBES is integrated with a wireless sensor M&S, 3D virtual environments (gaming
network which offers a closed loop technologies), artificial intelligence techniques
representation of the evacuation procedure, and Geographic Informative Systems.
including the sensed data and the emergency To this end, the Society for Computer
decision making. Simulation International (SCS) is strongly
Su et al. (2008) develop a discrete-event promoting research in this specific area within
computer simulation model for assessing the International Simulation Multi-conference,
evacuation programs and provide a ISMC. The ISMC 2010, that will be held next
comprehensive idea of evacuation plans for July in Ottawa (Canada), will include, not
hospital buildings in the event of a possible only an Emergency Simulation Track (as part
bomb threat. In particular, a simulation model of the Summer Computer Simulation
for the hospital building located in Taipei has Conference, http://www.msc-

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les.org/Conf/SCSC2010/emergency/), but also Chang M.-S. and Hsueh C.-F., (2007).
a conference on International Cooperation on Developing Geographic Information
Crises and Risky Enterprises (ICCRE, part of System for Flood Emergency Logistics
the Grand Challenges in Modeling & Planning. Proceedings of the Summer
Simulation, http://www.msc- Computer Simulation Conference. San
les.org/Conf/SCSC2010/GCMS). Together the Diego, California, USA, pp. 652-659.
Emergency Simulation track and the ICREE Didderen, E., Van Wijngaarden, M., Kobes,
conference will provide a unique framework M., (2009). Emergency Team Training in
for scientists, researchers and simulationists in Virtual Reality. An Evaluation of the
which to discuss M&S decision support Design Process and of the Performances
systems for major emergencies as well as of NIFV-ADMSTM in Training Sessions.
promising trends and innovative solutions for Proceedings of the SimTecT Confernce,
emergency simulation. Adelaide, Australia. ISBN 0 9775257 6 7
Dixit V.V. and Radwan E., (2008). Optimal
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 U.S. Department Of Energy, Washington, Biography
DC. Francesco Longo received his PhD in
Rathi, A. K., and R. S. Solanki. 1993. Mechanical Engineering from the University
“Simulation of Traffic Flow during of Calabria; he is currently an Assistant
Emergency Evacuations: A Professor and Director of the Modelling &
Microcomputer Based Modeling Simulation Center, Laboratory of Enterprise
System.” Contract No. DE-AC05 Solutions (MSC-LES). His research interests
84OR21400. U.S. Department Of include modelling and simulation for training
Energy, Washington, DC. procedures in complex environments, supply
Russo F. and Vitetta A., (2008). A chain management and security. He has
methodology for evacuation design for published more than 80 papers in international
urban areas: theoretical aspects and journals and conferences.
experimentation. Proceedings of the He is Associate Editor and Guest Editor of
Summer Computer Simulation Simulation: Transactions of the SCS. He is
Conference. Edinburgh, Scotland, pp. 1- Guest Editor of the International Journal of
14. Simulation and Process Modelling. He is
Sanders R. L. and Rhodes G. S., (2007). A Editor-in-Chief of the SCS M&S Newsletter
Simulation Learning Approach to and he has extensively supported the
Training First Responders for organisation of international conferences as
Radiological Emergencies. Proceedings General co-Chair, Program Co-Chair and
of the Summer Computer Simulation Track Chair (MAS, EMSS, I3M, SCSC, etc.).
Conference. San Diego, California, USA.
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Conference. Edinburgh, Scotland, pp.
205-212.
Summary of H. Res 487, Recognizing
Modeling & Simulation as a National
Critical Technology. Rep. J. Randy
Forbes (VA-04) and Rep. Solomon Ortiz
(TX-27). Available at:
http://www.scs.org/newsletters/2010-
01/index_file/Files/MSResolution487.pdf
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2007 Environmental Systems Research
Institute International User Conference
Proceedings, San Diego, CA.

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