Multi-Period Excess Earnings Method

Southeast Chapter of Business Appraisers

September 19-20, 2014

Presented By:
Bob Morrison, ASA BV/IA
Morrison Valuation & Forensic Services, LLC

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 “In God we trust.
All others must bring data.”
-W. Edwards Deming

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 Objectives
• Understand premise of MPEEM
• Identify assets for which MPEEM may apply
• Identify key assumptions and inputs
• Understand the attrition analysis
• Understand role of contributory assets
• Identify an appropriate discount rate
• Understand the purpose of the
IRR/WACC/WARA reconciliation

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 Premise

• Start with the income from all assets

combined
• Peel back the income from all other assets
leaving only income generated by the
subject asset
• Value the residual or “excess” earnings
• Original model developed in the 1920s

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 Applicable Assets

• PIGA: Primary income generating asset

• Dual PIGAs:
Technology
Existing                    New
Customers 
New          Existing

and/or  Customers
Customers

Technology

Technology Goodwill

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 Dual PIGAs
• Use of simultaneous MPEEMs should be
avoided (SEC & TAF Working Group)
• Alternative valuation methods
– Revenue/income split
– Relief from royalty
– Cost approach
– With and without

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 Key Assumptions and Inputs
• Projected revenue from acquired asset
• Attrition rate
• Profitability of the asset
• Contributory asset charges
• Life of the asset
• Discount rate

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 Projected Revenue
• Base year revenue
• What growth rate to use: different than the
consolidated growth rate?
• May require stratification (customer mix or
product mix)

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 Attrition
• Loss of customers over time
• Constant attrition rate method (CAM)
– Likelihood of loss is independent of the age of
the relationship
• Variable attrition rate method (VAM)
– Likelihood of loss is age-dependent
– More rigorous analysis
• Challenge: Data

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 Attrition
• Factors that affect attrition
– Length of relationship
– Switching costs
– Porter’s Five Forces
• Product/service differentiation; substitutes
• Competitive rivalry
• Barriers to entry
• Customers’ bargaining power
• Suppliers’ bargaining power

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 Attrition
• Attrition rate considerations
– Basis: dollars or number of customers?
– Historical experience versus market participant
expectations
• Grouping of customers
– Age of relationship
– Annual revenues
– Type of product/service

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 Attrition
• Attrition rate calculations – CAM
Historical Revenue by Customer
TTM ‐4 TTM ‐3 TTM ‐2 TTM ‐1 TTM
Customer 1 $     1,000  $     1,100  $     1,210  $       500 
Customer 2 100  50  50 
Customer 3 250  250  250  ‐
Customer 4 200  210  220 
Customer 5 250  200  150  100  50 
Customer 6 500  400 
Customer 7 250  500  750  1,000  1,250 
Customer 8 300  250  300  300 
Customer 9 250  250  250  250  250 
Customer 10 500  600  700 

Total revenues $     2,000  $     2,700  $     3,610  $    3,460  $    3,220 

yr/yr growth 35.0% 33.7% ‐4.2% ‐6.9%
CAGR to 20x5 12.6% 6.0% ‐5.6% ‐6.9%
Customer count 5  7  9  8  9 

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 Attrition
• Attrition rate calculations – CAM
Historical Revenue by Customer
Retained # of Customers
20x1
TTM ‐4, ‐3 20x2
TTM ‐3, ‐2 20x3
TTM ‐2, ‐1 20x4
TTM ‐1, TTM 20x5
TTM ‐4, TTM
Customer 1 $     1,000  1 $     1,100  1 $     1,210  1 $       500  0 0
Customer 2 0 100  1 50  0 0 50  0
Customer 3 250  1 250  1 250  0 0 ‐ 0
Customer 4 0 0 200  1 210  1 220  0
Customer 5 250  1 200  1 150  1 100  1 50  1
Customer 6 0 0 0 500  1 400  0
Customer 7 250  1 500  1 750  1 1,000  1 1,250  1
Customer 8 0 300  1 250  1 300  1 300  0
Customer 9 250  1 250  1 250  1 250  1 250  1
Customer 10 0 0 500  1 600  1 700  0

Total revenues
Total retained customers $     2,000  5 $     2,700  7 $     3,610  7 $    3,460  7 $    3,220  3
yr/yr growth
% retained customers 100% 35.0%
100% 33.7%
78% ‐4.2%
88% ‐6.9%
33%
CAGR to 20x5
Compounded annual attrition rate 12.6% 6.0% ‐5.6% ‐6.9% 12%
Customer count
Compounded annual retention rate 5  7  9  8  9  88%

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 Attrition
• Attrition rate calculations – CAM
Historical Revenue by Customer
Retained # of Customers
20x1
20x1‐20x2 Retained Customer Revenues
20x2
20x2‐20x3 20x3
20x3‐20x4 20x4
20x4‐20x5 20x5
20x1‐20x5
Customer 1 TTM ‐4, ‐3 1 $     1,100 
$     1,000  TTM ‐3, ‐2 1 $     1,210 
TTM ‐2, ‐1 1 $       500 
TTM ‐1, TTM0 TTM ‐4, TTM0
Customer 1
Customer 2 $     1,000  0 $     1,100 
100  1 $     1,210 
50  0 $         ‐ 0 $         ‐50  0
Customer 2
Customer 3 ‐
250  100 
250  1 ‐
250  ‐ ‐‐
1 0 0 0
Customer 3
Customer 4 250  250  ‐
200  1 ‐
210  1 ‐
220  0
0 0
Customer 4 ‐ ‐ 200  210  ‐
Customer 5 250  1 200  1 150  1 100  1 50  1
Customer 5 250  200  150  100  50 
Customer 6 0 0 0 500  1 400  0
Customer 6 ‐ ‐ ‐ 500  ‐
Customer 7 250  1 500  1 750  1 1,000  1 1,250  1
Customer 7 250  500  750  1,000  1,250 
Customer 8 0 300  1 250  1 300  1 300  0
Customer 8 ‐ 300  250  300  ‐
Customer 9 250  1 250  1 250  1 250  1 250  1
Customer 9 250  250  250  250  250 
Customer 10 0 0 500  600  700  0
Customer 10 ‐ ‐ 500  1 600  1 ‐

Total revenues
Total retained customers
Total retained customers $     2,000 
$     2,000  $     2,700  7 $     3,310 
5 $     2,700  $     3,610  7 $    2,960 
$    3,460  7 $    1,550 
$    3,220  3
yr/yr growth
% retained customers
% retained customer revenue 100% 35.0%
100% 33.7%
78%
92% ‐4.2%
88%
86% ‐6.9%
33%
78%
CAGR to 20x5
Compounded annual attrition rate 12.6% 6.0% ‐5.6% ‐6.9% 6%
12%
Customer count
Compounded annual retention rate
Compounded annual retention rate 5  7  9  8  9  94%
88%

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 Attrition
• Attrition rate calculations – VAM
– Exponential distributions
– Weibull distributions
– Iowa curves
– Requires a significant amount of data to be
valid

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 Profitability of the Asset
• Realistically, rarely does the subject asset
have the exact same profitability as the
business enterprise
• New customer acquisition costs vs. existing
customer retention costs
– Marketing costs
– Use of assets
– Management attention

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 Contributory Assets
• Typical contributory assets
– Operating working capital
– Tangible assets
– Identifiable intangible assets
– Workforce in place
• Contributory asset charges
– Return of vs. return on assets
– Loads the subject asset’s income with cost for
use of the other assets
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 Contributory Assets
• Calculation of contributory asset charge
TTM TTM +1 TTM +2 TTM +3 TTM +4 TTM +5

Total projected revenue $     3,220  $     3,542  $     3,808  $    3,998  $    4,198  $    4,324 

yr/yr growth 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0%

Acquired customer revenues $     3,220  $     3,381  $     3,516  $    3,621  $    3,730  $    3,842 

yr/yr growth 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Retained customers and revenue (mid year) 94.0% 82.7% 72.8% 64.1% 56.4%

Revenue from acquired customers $     3,178  $     2,908  $    2,636  $    2,391  $    2,167 

% of total revenue 89.7% 76.4% 65.9% 57.0% 50.1%

Fixed asset contributory charges (return on):
Beginning balance $        345  $        350  $       355  $       360  $      365 
Capital expenditures 70  70  70  70  70 
Economic depreciation (65) (65) (65) (65) (65)
Ending balance $        350  $        355  $       360  $       365  $      370 

Average balance $        348  $        353  $       358  $       363  $      368 

Contributing asset cost of capital 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Return on 100% of contributing  asset $          17  $          18  $         18  $         18  $        18 

% of contributing assets used by subject asset 89.7% 76.4% 65.9% 57.0% 50.1%

Contributory asset charge $          15  $          14  $         12  $         10  $          9 

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 Contributory Assets
• Life of the asset – how many periods
Total  Revenue from 
Projected  Acquired 
Revenue Customers %
TTM +1 $     3,542  $     3,178  89.7%
TTM +2 3,808  2,908  76.4%
TTM +3 3,998  2,636  65.9%
TTM +4 4,198  2,391  57.0%
TTM +5 4,324  2,167  50.1%
TTM +6 4,454  1,963  44.1%
TTM +7 4,588  1,271  27.7%
TTM +8 4,726  1,015  21.5%
TTM +9 4,868  811  16.7%
TTM +10 5,014  646  12.9%
TTM +11 5,164  585  11.3%
TTM +12 5,319  531  10.0%
TTM +13 5,479  481  8.8%
TTM +14 5,643  437  7.7%
TTM +15 5,812  397  6.8%
TTM +16 5,986  360  6.0%
TTM +17 6,166  325  5.3%

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 Discount Rate
• Earnings versus cash flow
• Asset/risk hierarchy

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 Discount Rate
• Asset/Risk Hierarchy
Net Assets Invested Capital
0% 0%
NWC Debt
Asset Required Return

Tangible

Cost of Capital
Assets

Identifiable 
Intangible Equity
Assets

Residual
40% 40%

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 Discount Rate
• Asset/Risk Hierarchy
0% 0%
Asset Required Return

Subject Asset?
Subject Asset?

Cost of Capital
WARA = WACC

40% 40%

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 Discount Rate
• Risk in the customer relationship asset
– Low switching costs
– Low product/service differentiation
– Low barriers to entry
– High customer purchasing power
– Customer concentration
– High competitive rivalry

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 IRR/WACC/WARA Recon
• IRR Cash flows
• WACC Capital
• WARA Assets

• Why is reconcilliation important?

– May highlight asset cost of capital issues
– May highlight allocation issues

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IRR/WACC/WARA Reconciliation
• First reconcile IRR and WACC
– IRR is rate that equates purchase consideration
with the market participant’s (MP) view of
expected cash flows
– WACC is MP’s view of the subject company’s
WACC

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IRR/WACC/WARA Reconciliation
• If IRR > WACC
– Optimistic cash flows
– Unique synergies in cash flows
– Bargain purchase
– Inadequate risk assessment in WACC
• If WACC > IRR
– Opposite to above

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IRR/WACC/WARA Reconciliation
• Fair (market) value: IRR = WACC = WARA
• What happens when WARA < WACC?
• What happens when WARA > WACC?

• Reconciliation of IRR/WACC to WARA is

iterative…

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 IRR/WACC/WARA Reconciliation
Weighted 
Fair (Market)  Return on 
Value % of Total Return on Asset Asset

Operating working capital $        500  12.0% 3.0% 0.36%

Tangible assets 1,000  24.1% 8.0% 1.93%
Customer relationships 1,500  36.1% 20.0% 7.22%
Trade name 50  1.2% 20.0% 0.24%
Workforce 100  2.4% 20.0% 0.48%
Subtotal 3,150  10.23%
SOLVE
Goodwill 1,000  24.1% 40.5% 9.77% (20.00% ‐ 10.23%)

Total assets $     4,150  100.0% 20.00%

WACC = IRR 20.00%
Cost of equity 25.00%
Cost of debt 3.00%

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 IRR/WACC/WARA Reconciliation
Weighted 
Fair (Market)  Return on 
Value % of Total Return on Asset Asset

Operating working capital $        500  12.0% 3.0% 0.36%

Tangible assets 1,000  24.1% 8.0% 1.93%
Customer relationships 1,500  36.1% 22.0% 7.94%
Trade name 50  1.2% 20.0% 0.24%
Workforce 100  2.4% 20.0% 0.48%
Subtotal 3,150  10.95%
SOLVE
Goodwill 1,000  24.1% 37.6% 9.75% (20.00% ‐ 10.95%)

Total assets $     4,150  100.0% 20.00%

WACC = IRR 20.00%
Cost of equity 25.00%
Cost of debt 3.00%

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 Excess Earnings
TTM +1 TTM +2 TTM +3 TTM +4 TTM +5

Total customer revenues $     3,542  $     3,808  $    3,998  $    4,198  $    4,324 

Acquired customer revenues $     3,381  $     3,516  $    3,621  $    3,730  $    3,842 

Retention rate 60.0% 80.0% 48.0% 28.8% 17.3% 10.4%

Revenue from acquired customers $     2,705  $     1,688  $    1,043  $       645  $      400 

% of total revenue 76.4% 44.3% 26.1% 15.4% 9.3%

Gross profit 15.0% $        406  $       253  $       156  $         97  $        60 

Operating costs 5.0% (135) (84) (52) (32) (20)
Trade name 2.0% (54) (34) (21) (13) (8)
Depreciation (50) (29) (17) (10) (6)

EBIT $         167  $         106  $         66  $         42  $        26 

Taxes 40.0% (67) (42) (26) (17) (10)

NOPAT $         100  $         64  $         40  $         25  $        16 

Contributory asset charges:
Working capital (10) (6) (4) (2) (1)
Fixed assets (13) (8) (5) (3) (2)
Non‐compete (8) (4) ‐ ‐ ‐
Workforce (5) (3) (2) (1) (1)

Excess earnings $          64  $         43  $         29  $           19  $          12 

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 Resources
• Identification of Contributory Assets and Calculation of
Economic Rents: Toolkit. The Appraisal Foundation, 2010.
• Best Practices for Valuations in Financial Reporting:
Intangible Asset Working Group – Contributory Assets. The
Appraisal Foundation, 2010.
• ASA BV301: Valuation of Intangible Assets. American
Society of Appraisers.
• ASA BV302: Special Topics in the Valuation of Intangible
Assets. American Society of Appraisers.

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 Objectives
• Understand premise of MPEEM
• Identify assets for which MPEEM may apply
• Identify key assumptions and inputs
• Understand the attrition analysis
• Understand role of contributory assets
• Identify an appropriate discount rate
• Understand the purpose of the
IRR/WACC/WARA reconciliation

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 MPEEM
QUESTIONS?
Bob Morrison, ASA BV/IA
407.770.1281
[email protected]
@MorrisonVFS

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