Module Code: 2000EXQ

New York City’s Climate Change: The Science and Symptoms

Climate Change Risk Assessment & associated Mitigations

Evidence Analyses posing Risks & Opportunities within a 60 year Projection

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Climate Change: The Science and the Symptoms (New York City)
1.0 Introduction
Climate change is a continuous and evolving problem which necessitates the implementation
of pragmatic uncompromising elucidations for effective resolution attainment. Modern day
life has erected substantial ‘environmental repercussions’ in the form of Greenhouse Gases
via the use of organic fossil fuels to generate the necessity of convenient and applicable
energy globally.
2.0 Executive Summary
The report will discuss the impact of GHG induced climate change to financial sectors,
resulting in fossil fuel divestment which cascades through businesses, industry operations and
essential services centralized in NYC. Meticulous deliberations affecting implementing and
enforcement of Government (Executive Order #24., 2009) Legislation to reduce CO2
emittance via ‘carbon pricing’. The Insurance sectors ability to coordinate accurate threat
profiles on increasingly high-risk regions and stock price fluctuations for those with short or
long tail acquisition asset books of varying exposures.
3.0 Current and Future Weather Profile (NPCC3)
The NPCC3’s 67% central heat range for
2080 is projected between a 4 – 7 degree F
increases in average temperature, making
the anticipated climate more identical to
Arkansas (Figure 1). Heat implications are
currently increasing energy demand, NPCC
predicts the number of days above 90
degrees F will quadruple by 2080 which
could cause ‘minority communities’
(Coburn et al., 2006) to become
disproportionately susceptible in events that
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cause electricity ‘brownouts’ from mass AC usage. (Torrejon., 2019) Increasing resilience to
current and future hostile conditions is imperative to reducing vulnerability by introducing
more capable ‘cooling centres’, ‘cool roofs’ and ‘Be-a-buddy’ Climate Mobilization Act
mandated by Building Resilience Against Climate Effect Program (BRACE) which
collectively mitigates heat-related morbidity and mortality, food & water insecurity, water-
borne disease, allergies, and exacerbation of cardiovascular impacts (AHVCC).

According to New York City Panel on Climate Change, NYC is highly susceptible to risks
posed by sea-level rise. West Artic Ice Sheet melts encouraged by ‘expansive’ warmer ocean
water help enclose NYC on three fronts of Hudson River which is estimated to rise by 39
inches by 2080 says mid-range percentile alignments. (ARIM; 2015) Low laying Staten
Island, Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan are vulnerable with coastal residence and business
enterprises exposed with ‘LiDAR’ 2017 elevation model mapping topography data’s
illuminating emphasis. Hurricane Sandy produced $32.8 billion in damages, two day closure
of New York Stock Exchange and flooding of NYC subways system with several road access
tunnels included which insinuates future
trepidation of associated instances. The intricate
network of underground rail is at risk of
inundation which previously in 2012 caused $5
Billion in damages to penetrate deep inland
networks nearly 20 feet below ground with
mean sea level at 10 inches above JFK airport.
(Schlanger., 2019)
Modelling shows anticipation of precipitation
of 15% by the 2080’s, predominantly in the
North East County which ideally holds the
minority of the state’s populous. The majority
of incremental rain increases will occur
throughout the winter and spring months,
earlier snow melting from intensified heat will
lead to enhanced evaporation and dry soil
throughout summer and fall which will affect
already mynute agricultural contributions.
(Schulz., 2015) Spatial analysis is implemented to climate data, environmental research
figures, determinations of socio-economic segments, locational hazards, and specified
industry infrastructure to better comprehend the fragility ‘hotspots’ via multiple overlapping
GIS data inputs both locally and globally. (Solecki., 2019) These software implementations
help impoverished demographics become recognised. The reoccurring evaporation
intensification will lead to atmospheric warming and humidity to uptick rainfall dynamics
which contributes of urban sea breeze, and pressure system exchanges. The ‘Clausius–
Clapeyron’ dynamic entails how warmer biosphere with elevated ratios of “water vapor to air
at saturation; this is likely to increase rates of heavy downpours with climate change”
(Trenberth et al., 2003).
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The Northeast of America is regarded as high-risk from storm surges, but with NPCC
continuous broad assessments among Federal and Regional partners will collaborate through
monitoring systems to exact trends, impacts, vulnerability and adaptive measures to invoke
strategic mitigation investment. Art deGaetano of Cornell University "Subway tunnels get
affected, airports - both LaGuardia and Kennedy sit right at sea level - and when you are
talking about the lowest areas of the city you are talking about the business districts."
(Goldenberg., 2011)
Using ‘synthetic storms’ researches are able to identify future behaviours based on models
fed by air temperature, humidity, sea surface temperature, wind velocity and pressure fields.
Key indicators suggest that storms landing on the North East will be increasing in quantity
and size. However, a natural compensation will divert the ‘storm tracks’ on a congruent
latitude offshore of New York but could result in a brief ‘pinnacle window’ before eventual
trajectory divergence. (Field et al., 2012)
Air pollution remains a general
public health risk PM2.5 and
SO2 that caused 2000 deaths
according to NYC Mayor’s
Office. PM attributing to
respiratory disease most often in
low-income communities which
causes immense disparity among
those affected but is being
mitigated under the (Air Code),
enforced commercially under
(DEP).

4.0 Key Risks and Opportunities

Wallstreet Financial Business is the pinnacle
Gross Domestic Product contributor of NYC,
located in lower Manhattan where the home to
both mammoth financial markets (New York
Stock Exchange & NASDAQ). JPMorgan
Chase with $75bn at the forefront of
aggressive expansion among powerful
financial institutes that heavily invest in
expansive fracking, Artic oil, coal mining
operations and exploration for ultra-deep-water
oil and gas prospects. (Greenfield., 2019)
These investments are met with precaution due
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to policy makers facing immense pressure to enforce the acceleration of decarbonization,

identifiable in ‘carbon pricing’ regulated in the aligned capital marketplace. (Carr., 2019) The
immediate trouble with a ‘cap-the-market’ is essentially a potential to enact a “Minsky
Moment” throughout the financial infrastructures, encouraging the decline of Carbon
associated mutual funds, stocks, loans, bonds, commodities pricing and pension funds. Head
of International Bank Supervision Sarah observed, “A climate Minsky moment was possible,
in which losses could be as high as $20tn.” (Breeden., 2019) In part due to bank-hydrocarbon
business mortgages being pegged at rates in ‘Reserve Based Lending’ approaches such that
require prepaid holdings using anticipation forecasts of returns to ensure ‘satisfactory’
repayment. RBL must be closely coordinated ‘borrowing capacity’ in this case due to
‘transitional risk’ on final product pricing volatility with potential to change investment
patterns, leaving ‘stranded assets’ for reintegrating in cash-flow projections. (Cunningham.,
2016) A potential opportunity for the banks in the

Insurance and Property are joined elements, and both collapse individually, the risk is always
considerably larger for those responsible under legal contract to reimburse. Providing a
unique perspective on the climate challenge to industry, because not only will insurance
companies be weary of ‘physical changes’ in environment but are compelled to price
‘volatility’. (Oldridge., 2019) The prominent and immediate risks are increase severity in
weather events on NYC, in the form of floods, extreme precipitation, heatwaves and rising
sea levels. Weather events have the potential to contribute in a multitude of sectors which
complicates obsolete modelling, using only historical losses is the ‘benchmark’ throughout
insurance and becoming less relevant progressively as a multitude of interpreting factors are
overlooked. Premiums rise with uncertainty, leaving policies unaffordable which shows as
85% of U.S homeowners are without flood insurance with 50% of those considered
vulnerable. (Wolfe., 2016) Along with divestment in fossil fuels, companies are instead
opportunistically investing in “Green Bonds” working as a fixed-income instrument
specifically earmarked to progress eco-friendly ventures to substitute heavy carbon balance
sheets. NYC insurers are remapping with FEMA, taking advantage of hex grid analysis to
approximate climate events that give them leverage to either decline or ‘cede’ in industry
from New Jersey to Long Island. Flood Insurance is
mandate with Federally backed mortgages as the state
disassociates itself from collective risks. However
Principal and Actuary Milliman Nancy Watkins
“Reinsurance companies want the risk, they have been
the leaders, and have been running around trying to sell
flood reinsurance for four or five years.” Without any
occurrence the insurance market becomes soft (without
demand), post events the market solidifies which permit
flexibility to impose stringent underwriting criteria and
limited policy releases. Skilled underwriting can
proactively arrange an opportunity to execute well
allocated risk pools with policy makers to ensure
coverage, with a contribution to enhance resilience and
solution management in communities. Using a
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sustainable business strategy preforming a supporting role in ‘phasing out’ carbon subsidies
in exchange for integrating a road map to engage with cleaner energy policies, systems,
markets and renewable energy initiatives. Lastly insurance companies have the opportunity to
expand product lines with ‘Parametric Coverage’ under a trigger initiation index that
indemnifies a loss to a particular set of constraint which doesn’t leave the insurance as
exposed to any one catastrophic event because of detailed involvedness and diversity of
interests covered. Clyde & Co described this protection gap without loss adjustment as” an
elegant solution for risk-transfer concerns.” (Moorcraft., 2018)

Retail is reliant on location such as the famous ‘Fifth Avenue, Orchard Street, Aurthur
Avenue in Bronx and Queens Boulevard. The industry having dynamic overhauls from in
store shopping transition to E-commerce, with an array of new start-ups capitalising on the
convenience opportunity. The main risk in retail are losses in public capital spending,
enforced major changes in supply chain, inventory sustainability and carbon budgets
lifecycles. Modern retail businesses are implementing ‘circular economy’ tactics as opposed
to linear to help elongate recyclable resources to maximise value, recover and regenerate
goods or materials at the foot of service life. There is an opportunity to make product in a
sustainable fashion, low-carbon transport, sustainable materials and improving general
consumer awareness collectively as a key ‘social responsibility’. (Seferian., 2019)
Sustainable models would contribute to 380 million jobs by 2030, using ‘Secondary
Materials and Recycling Textiles’ processes to reduce land fill usage from unnecessary
waste. Research from the Environmental Protection Agency has found “Americans annually
dispose of 70 pounds of clothing”, with 85% ending up in toxic landfills. In the event such as
ongoing storm surges that are anticipated to transpire in future for NYC, consumers will
prioritize safety and wellbeing than merchandise. However, ‘weather adjusted sales’ can
provide a window of opportunity to optimise necessity of consumer. According to Lazio et all
(2001), “weather accounts for 3.4% of sales variations”. This could motivate retailers to cater
future product line in relativity to upcoming weather events to better align production
activities to precise sales forecasting. (Murray et al., 2010)
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5.0 Mitigation in New York City

Mitigation Policies are in place to reduce the risk associated with carbon intensive
contributions to global warming, which often include sustainable practices such as energy
efficiency, fossil fuel phase out operations and legislation.
"Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in
changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise,
and in changes in some climate extremes.” (Khoroshunova., 2014)
Mitigation policies are in place to control and prevent a continuation of poor practices with
heavy environmental repercussions. The state of New York is implementing a large emphasis
on the ‘skyscraper’ emissions, requiring as slash in acceptable rate of emittance to any
building over 25,000 sq ft with a 40% undercut project for 2030.The renouncing of fossil fuel
advertising will soon be in affect a climate change begins to urge attention. The ‘Green New
Deal’ climate mobilization Act is focusing on the inequality of differencing social capacities,
using spatial pattern analysis, case studies in socially and economically disadvantages
communities and incorporating collaborative equality efforts to reduce affected populous
with ‘top- bottom approach’. (Deas et al., 2017)
These changes will be implemented on the retail and service markets heavily including the
health care service, hotels and educational facilities to essentially obligate a specific
standardization responsibly. The implementation of Bill: Int 1318 intends to require an
assessment of feasibility for either retrofitting or replacing coal fire power plants with
renewable energy source with the capacity for battery storage capabilities in 2025. Finally, as
previously discussed there is a plan under Bill: Int 276 & 1032 to convert residential roofs to
solar or ‘cool roofs’ to mitigate the warming climate in congested city spaces. These elements
will help to improve the structure and sustainability of the City to accommodate their tourist
capacity, aid sustainable outcome and developed positive protocol going forward into
continued financial dominance with a hopeful ecological attribution.
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