Step 1.

Specify the Measurement Process and

Equation
Before beginning to calculating uncertainty, the first part of your plan should be to identify
the measurement process

How to Specify the Measurement Process

To specify the measurement process, follow the instructions below:

1. What am I measuring?
2. How will I measure it?
3. Select the measurement method or procedure to be used.
4. Select the equipment that will be used (e.g. min and max) of my measurement
capability?
5. Select the desired range of the measurement function.
6. Determine the test-points to be evaluated.

Once specified, you can move on to the next step.

Step 2: Identify and Characterize the Uncertainty

Sources
Now the next step is to identify the factors that influence uncertainty in measurement results.

Finding Sources of Uncertainty

Finding sources of uncertainty can be difficult. It is the most time-consuming process when
evaluating measurement uncertainty.

How to Find Sources of Uncertainty

To find sources of uncertainty for your analysis, follow steps listed below:

1. Evaluate the test method, calibration procedure, or measurement process.

2. Evaluate the measurement equations (if available).
3. Evaluate the equipment, reference standards, and reagents.
4. Identify the minimum required sources of uncertainty.
5. Research various sources of information.
6. Consult an expert. 

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Best Places to Find Sources of Uncertainty
When you need to find sources of uncertainty, it helps to have a list of available resources.

Below is a list of places, including links, that you can use to help you find sources of
uncertainty.

1. Manufacturer Manuals
2. Manufacturer Datasheets
3. Technical Notes & Guides
4. Conference Papers
5. Textbooks

Step 3. Quantify the Magnitude of Uncertainty

Components
Before calculating measurement uncertainty, you must first determine the magnitude of each
contributing factor. 

How to Quantify Uncertainty

To quantify uncertainty, you need to follow the four steps below:

1. Collect Information and Data

2. Evaluate and Select the Right Data
3. Analyse the Data
4. Quantify Uncertainty Components
Collect Information and Data

Information and data could be collected from the following:

a. Last 3 Calibration Reports

b. Repeatability and Reproducibility Studies
c. Method or Procedure
d. Experiment Results
e. Manufacture Manuals and Specifications
f. Technical Documents and Guides
g. Published papers, studies, journal articles, etc.

Using the items in the list above, you should be able determine how much uncertainty is
contributed from each source.

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Evaluate Information and Select the Right Data

Now you need to evaluate the information that you have and find data that you will use for
estimating uncertainty. You need to find data related to your uncertainty analysis and
eliminate the rest.

This should include information and data related to your:

a. measurement function,
b. measurement range, and
c. test-point.
Analyse the Data

Then, analyse the data that you have using appropriate methods of analysis to find the
magnitude of each uncertainty component. Choose methods that are appropriate for the
data you are analysing.

Quantify Uncertainty Components

Use your results to quantify each uncertainty component and add the values to your
uncertainty budget.

You can add the uncertainty and unit of measurement directly into your uncertainty budget.
Or, you can add uncertainties, their unit of measurement, and a sensitivity coefficient to your
uncertainty budgets. The option is yours.

Adding detailed notes to your uncertainty budgets will help you remember how you did it and
why.

Sources of Uncertainty
Here is my list of the minimum recommended sources of uncertainty to include in every
uncertainty budget.

1. Repeatability
2. Reproducibility
3. Stability
4. Bias
5. Drift
6. Resolution
7. Reference Standard Uncertainty
8. Reference Standard Stability
9. Other Significant Contributors

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Repeatability

Repeatability is an evaluation of the variability in your measurement process under similar

conditions.

How to Calculate Repeatability

Follow these instructions to calculate repeatability:

1. Repeat a measurement ‘n’ number of times

2. Record the results of each measurement.
3. Calculate the standard deviation.
Reproducibility

Reproducibility is an evaluation of the variability in your measurement process under

different conditions.

How to Calculate Reproducibility

Follow these instructions to calculate reproducibility:

1. Perform a Repeatability Test.

2. Calculate the mean of average.
3. Change a variable and repeat the Repeatability Test
4. Calculate the mean or average.
5. Calculate the standard deviation of the test averages.
Stability

Stability is an evaluation of the variability in your measurement process over time.

How to Calculate Stability

Follow these instructions to calculate stability:

1. Review your last 3 calibration reports.

2. Record the results from each calibration report.
3. Calculate the standard deviation of the calibration results.
Error

Error is the average of readings minus the certified valuein your measurement process.

How to Calculate Error

Follow these instructions to calculate bias:

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 1. Review your certified value.
2. Calculate the average
3. Calculate the difference.
Drift

Drift is an evaluation of the systematic change in your measurement process or system over
time.

How to Calculate Drift

Follow these instructions to calculate drift:

1. Review your last 3 calibration reports.

2. Record the results from each calibration report.
3. Record the date each calibration was performed.
4. Calculate the average daily drift rate.
5. Multiply the average daily drift rate by your calibration interval (in days).
Resolution

Resolution is an evaluation of the smallest incremental change observed in your

measurement process or system.

How to Find Resolution

Follow these instructions to find resolution:

1. Look at your measurement system or equipment.

2. Find the least significant digit.
3. Observe the smallest incremental change.
Reference Standard Uncertainty

Reference Standard Uncertainty is the traceable uncertainty associated with calibration of

equipment or reference materials used in your measurement process.

How to Calculate Reference Standard Uncertainty

Follow these instructions to find reference standard uncertainty:

1. Review your latest calibration report.

2. Find the reported estimate of measurement uncertainty.
Reference Standard Stability

Reference Standard Stability is an evaluation of the variability in your Reference Standard

Uncertainty over time.

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How to Calculate Reference Standard Stability

Follow these instructions to calculate reference standard stability:

1. Review your last 3 calibration reports.

2. Record the uncertainty estimate from each calibration report.
3. Calculate the standard deviation.
Other Significant Contributors

Make sure to include any other significant contributors to measurement uncertainty. A

significant contributor is considered a source of uncertainty that contributes 5% or more to
the total combined standard uncertainty.

Step 4: Characterize Sources of Uncertainty

Your next step will be to characterize each factor by uncertainty type and probability
distribution.

How to Characterize Sources of Uncertainty

To characterize your sources of uncertainty, perform the following tasks below:

1. Categorize each source of uncertainty: Type A or Type B

2. Assign a probability distribution to each uncertainty component.
Uncertainty Types
The first step to characterizing your uncertainty components is to categorize them as either
Type A or Type B.

Type A Uncertainty

Type A uncertainty is an “evaluation of a component of measurement uncertainty

determined by a statistical analysis of measured quantity values obtained under defined
measurement conditions.” 

Type B Uncertainty

Type B uncertainty is an “evaluation of a component of measurement uncertainty determined

by means other than a Type A evaluation of measurement uncertainty.” 

How to Pick an Uncertainty Type

uncertainty estimates using statistics (from repeated readings) is Type A & uncertainty
estimates from any other information, i.e., from past experience of the measurements, from

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calibration certificates, manufacturer’s specifications, from calculations or from scientific
evaluation is Type B.

Probability Distributions
This is an important step because the probability distribution that you select will determine
how your source of uncertainty is converted to a standard deviation in the next step.
Although there are many different types of probability distributions that you can choose from,
the Normal (i.e. Gaussian) and Rectangular (i.e. Uniform) distributions are the most commonly
used.

Probability Distributions for Estimating Uncertainty

Some of the most common probability distributions used to estimate uncertainty are;

 Normal (i.e. Gaussian) Distribution

 Rectangular (i.e. Uniform) Distribution
 Triangular Distribution
 Log-Normal Distribution
 Quadratic Distribution
 U-shaped Distribution
 Rayleigh Distribution

Use the chart below to help you select the appropriate probability distribution.

To assign the appropriate distribution, consider how to characterize the data set for each
source of uncertainty.

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If you evaluated Type A uncertainty data, calibration results, or used an accuracy specification,
you most likely want to assign a Normal distribution.

If you evaluated resolution, environmental or physical influences, you may want to use a
rectangular distribution.

If you are not sure what distribution you should use, then it is typically less risk to assign a
rectangular distribution.

Step 5: Convert Uncertainty Components to

Standard Deviation Equivalents
Once you select a probability distribution, you can identify the equation needed to convert
each uncertainty contributor to a standard deviation equivalent. This will reduce each source
of uncertainty to a 1-sigma level (i.e. 68.27% confidence), so you can properly combine them.

How to Convert Uncertainty to Standard Deviations

To convert uncertainty components to standard deviations, follow the steps listed below:

1. Assign a probability distribution to each source of uncertainty,

2. Find the divisor for the selected probability distribution,
3. Divide each source of uncertainty by it’s respective divisor.

Refer to the chart below to find the divisor associated with the probability distribution.

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Next, divide your uncertainty components by the appropriate divisor to convert them to a
standard uncertainty. Afterward, all of your contributors should be on the same confidence
level (i.e. 1-sigma or 68.27%) and equivalent to a standard deviation.

What Divisor to Use to Convert Uncertainty

To convert uncertainty to standard deviations, it is best to understand more about
probabilities distributions and their associated divisors.

Normal Distribution

If you select a Normal distribution, then you will divide your uncertainty by it’s associated
coverage factor, k.

Take a closer look at the sources of uncertainty that you are evaluating to determine what
coverage factor you should use. Typically, your contributors will have a confidence level of
68%, 95.45%, or 99%. Respectively, this means that you will use a divisor of 1, 2, or 2.576.

Rectangular Distribution

If you select a Rectangular distribution, then you will divide your uncertainty component by
the square root of 3 or 1.7321

U-Shaped Distribution

If you select a U-shaped distribution, then you will divide your uncertainty component by the
square root of 2 or 1.4142

Triangular Distribution

If you select a Triangular distribution, then you will divide your uncertainty component by the
square root of 6 or 2.4495

Quadratic Distribution

If you select a Quadratic distribution, then you will divide your uncertainty component by the
square root of 5 or 2.2361

Log-Normal Distribution

If you select a Log-Normal distribution, then you will divide your uncertainty component by
2.3750

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Rayleigh Distribution

If you select a Rayleigh distribution, then you will divide your uncertainty component by
2.4477

Handling Components With Different Units of Measurement

The most important thing to remember when converting uncertainty to standard deviation
equivalents is to make sure all the standard deviations are in the same units of measurement.

This is critical before calculating the combined uncertainty. Otherwise, your estimated
uncertainty will not be correct.

You cannot combine uncertainties with different units of measurement (without the
use of sensitivity coefficients).

If you have contributors with different units of measurement, you will need to use sensitivity
coefficients to convert them to units of measurement that match the measurement result or
a term relative to the measurement result (e.g. percent). This is a mistake many people make
when estimating uncertainty of measurement. So, make sure to check for this before you
calculate the combined standard uncertainty.

Step 6: Calculate the Combined Uncertainty

After converting your uncertainty sources to standard deviation equivalents, it is time to
calculate the combined uncertainty using the root sum of squares.

How to Calculate the Combined Uncertainty

To calculate the combined standard uncertainty, simply following these instructions:

1. Square the value of each uncertainty component,

2. Add together all the results in step 1,
3. Calculate the square root of the result in step 2.
4. To summarize the instructions above, simply square the value of each uncertainty
source. Next, add them all together to calculate the sum (i.e. the sum of squares). Then,
calculate the square-root of the summed value (i.e. the root sum of squares). The result
will be your combined standard uncertainty.
5. After you complete this process, you will have the combined standard uncertainty at a
1-sigma level (i.e. 68.27% confidence) characterized by a Normal distribution as per the
Central Limit Theorem.

Central Limit Theorem

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When you combine uncertainty sources, you are also combining their probability
distributions.

According to the Central Limit Theorem, the sum of the set of independent random variables
(i.e. uncertainty sources) will approach a normal distribution regardless of the individual
variable’s distribution.

Therefore, the probability distribution associated with your combined uncertainty will now be
normal.

Root Sum of Squares Method

If you are a more visual learner, like me, take a look at the process below to see if it makes
more sense.

Below, you will see the equation for calculating the combined uncertainty.

Where,
u1 = uncertainty of 1st component
u2 = uncertainty of 2nd component

Step 7. Calculate the Expanded Uncertainty

In this second last step, you are going to learn how to calculate the expanded uncertainty to a
95% confidence interval. To do this, you will need to select a coverage factor and multiply it by
the calculated combined uncertainty.

Look at the image below to see the normal probability distribution when you expand your
uncertainty to 2-sigma or 95.45% confidence.

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How to Calculate the Expanded Uncertainty

To calculate the expanded measurement uncertainty, just follow these steps:

1. Calculate the Combined Uncertainty,

2. Calculate the Effective Degrees of Freedom to,
3. Find a coverage factor (k) from the student T distribution table and
4. Multiply the combined uncertainty by the coverage factor.

The result will be the expanded uncertainty and if you use a coverage factor of 2 or 1.96, you
will expand uncertainty to a 95% confidence level.

Check out the simplified equation below for calculating the expanded uncertainty.

Where,
EU – Expanded Uncertainty
k – Coverage Factor
CU – Combined Uncertainty

In the next section, you will learn some options for selecting a coverage factor.

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Selecting a Coverage Factor
The coverage factor is the multiplier that you will use to expand uncertainty to a 95%
confidence interval. However, you have some options. You can use:

a. k=2 for a 95.45% confidence interval,

b. k=1.96 for a 95% confidence interval, or
c. The Student’s T table to find your coverage factor (k).
Calculating the Expanded Uncertainty
After finding your coverage factor (k), calculate the expanded uncertainty by multiplying the
coverage factor and the combined standard uncertainty. Use the formula below for guidance. 

The result is the expanded uncertainty (i.e. U). This is your uncertainty in measurement
estimated to a 95% confidence interval.

Step 8. Evaluate Uncertainty for Appropriateness

Once you have calculated the expanded uncertainty, it is best to evaluate your uncertainty
estimate for appropriateness. Essentially, you want to make sure that your measurement
uncertainty estimate adequately represents your measurement process and is not
overestimated or underestimated.

How to Evaluate Your Uncertainty Budget

To evaluate your expanded measurement uncertainty estimates, use one or more of the
following methods listed below. Then, determine if your expanded uncertainty is reasonable
and appropriate.

Evaluate the Significance of Uncertainty Contributors

For this evaluation, calculate the significance of each source of uncertainty and analyse how
much it influences your total measurement uncertainty. Double-check uncertainty
components with excessively large and small percentages to verify their value is correct.

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THE END

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