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8
After mid-term Descriptive Statistics March 2020

Probability

Some Basic Concepts

Random Experiment (trail)

Is an activity having two or more different possible outcomes with uncertainty in
advance, as to which outcome prevails.

Sample space ( )
Is the set of all basic (elementary) outcomes.

Event
Is a subset of basic outcomes of a sample space.

Probability of an event ( )

i. The Classical Probability:

ii. Empirical (Statistical) probability: =relative frequency=

iii. The Subjective probability: Intuition, educated guesses, and estimates.

Complementary event
Consists of all outcomes of the experiment that do not result in event .

Events intersection ∩ or
If the two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then ∩ .

Events union ∪ or
Is the outcomes that element in or element in .

Probability postulates
1)
2) !, .
3) If ∩ ∅, then ∪ $ .
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Rules of the probability

Addition rule ∪ or

General rule Mutually

∪ $ ' ∩ ∪ $

Multiplication rule ∩ or

General rule Independent

∩ % / ∩ %

Given

Conditional probability

∩
/

Given

and are independent if

∩ %

or /

or /

Notes:

If A and B are mutually, then they are independent if one of them is an impossible.
If A and B are mutually and they are possible, then they are not independent.
If A or B are possible, and they are mutually, they may be independent or dependent.
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Example (1): In the experiment of tossing a die,

1- The sample space is: (!, ), *, +, ,, -.

* !
2- Let A = observe an odd number = {1, 3, 5}, and .
- )

+ )
3- Let B = observe a number >2, = {3, 4, 5, 6}, and - *
.

) !
4- Let C = observe a number ≤ 2, = {1, 2}, and 0 - *
.

) !
5- ∩ = {3, 5}, ∩ - *
.

6- ∩ 0 = { } = ∅, ∩0 , then B and C are mutually exclusive.

* !
7- {2, 4, 6}, .
- )

* + ) ,
8- ∪ $ ' ∩ $-'-
- -

+ ) -
∪0 $ 0 $- !
- -

∩ )⁄- ) !
9- /
+⁄- + )

∩ ) ⁄- )
/
* ⁄- *

10- A and B are independent, because:

! ! ) !
∩ *
, and % )
%* *
. Then ∩ % .

! !
Or / )
, and )
. Then / .

) )
Or / *
, and *
. Then / .
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Example (2): the following table represents the distribution of a group of employees
according to gender (M/F) and to opinion concerning the management’s new policy
(Agree/ Disagree/ No opinion).

Opinion
Agree (A) Disagree (D) No opinion (N) Total
Gender
M 28 20 12 60
F 12 20 8 40
Total 40 40 20 100

If one employee is selected at random:

1. What is the probability that he is a Male?
2. What is the probability that he is a Male or has No opinion?
3. What is the probability that he is a Male and disagree?
4. What is the probability that he is a Male given he disagree?
5. Are the two events of selecting a Male and someone with No opinion
independent? Why?
Answer:
-
1. 2 !
.-
- ) !) -3
2. 2 2∪ 2 $ ' 2∩ !
$! '! !
. -3
)
3. 2 4 2∩4 ! .)
2∩4 .) .)
4. 2⁄4 + .,
4 .+
!

5. 2 .- , .) , 2∩ . !)
.- % .) . !), 2 and are independent, because 2∩ 2 %

Another solution:
2∩ .!)
2⁄ .)
.-

2 .-
They are independent, because 2⁄ 2
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Example (4): Medical authorities claim that overweight persons have a great chance of
being diabetics. As support of this claim, the following joint probability table was released.

Weight status Normal weight Over weight

Slim persons Total
Diabetic status persons persons
Diabetic 0.02 0.14 0.44 0.60
Not diabetic 0.18 0.16 0.06 0.40
Total 0.20 0.30 0.50 1

Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen person:

a) Is diabetic,
b) Is diabetic OR overweight,
c) Is diabetic GIVEN THAT he is overweight,
d) Is diabetic GIVEN THAT he is not overweight.
Answer:
a) P (diabetic) = 0.60
b) P (diabetic OR overweight) = P(diabetic) + P(overweight) - P(diabetic ∩ overweight)
= 0.60+ 0.50 – 0.44 = 0.66
7 89:;<=9> ∩?@<A B.CC
c) P(diabetic / over )= 0.22
7 ?@<A B.DB
7 89:;<=9> ∩ F?= ?@<A B.BGHB.IC B.IK
d) P(diabetic / Not over) = 0.08
7 F?= ?@<A B.GBHB.JB B.DB

Theorems and Results

1. !'

2. ∅

3. ⊆ , N ≤

4. ≤ !, .
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H.W (8)

1) If P(A)= 0.4, P(B)= 0.5, P(A and B)= 0.1, find:

P(AUB), P(A/B), P(B/A)

2) If P(A and B)=0.2, P(A)=0.4 and P(B)=0.3, find P(AUB).

3) If A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A)= 0.3, P(B)= 0.45, find P(AUB).

4) If P(A)= 0.4, P(AUB)= 0.6, find P(B) if A and B are mutually exclusive.

5) If A and B are mutually exclusive, find P(B/A).

6) If P(A)= 1/3, P(B)= ¾, P(AUB)= ¼, find P(A/B).