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Active Tectonics: Impact on Society (1986)
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ISBN 978-0-309-03638-2 | DOI 10.17226/624
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Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
Washington, D.C. 1986
National Research Council
Geophysics Research Forum
Geophysics Study Committee
STUDIES IN GEOPHYSICS
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Active Tectonics
Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources
i
Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
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ii
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Cons titution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are
drawn from the Councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of
the committee responsible for this report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of
members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and
technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with gen-
eral policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit,
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administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were estab-
lished in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences.
The Geophysics Study Committee is pleased to acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation, the Defense Advanced Research Proj-
ects Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey,
and the Department of Energy (Grant #DE-FGO2–82ER12018) for the conduct of this study.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Active tectonics.
(Studies in geophysics)
Includes index.
1. Geology, Structural—Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Geophysics Research Forum (U.S.) Geophysics Study Committee. II. Series.
QE601.A25 1986 551.8 85–32026
ISBN 0-309-03638-0
Printed in the United States of America
National Academy Press
The National Academy Press was created by the National Academy of Sciences to publish the reports issued by the Academy and by the National Acad-
emy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council, all operating under the charter granted to the National Academy of
Sciences by the Congress of the United States.
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iii
Panel on Active Tectonics
ROBERT E. WALLACE, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, Chairman
CLARENCE R.ALLEN, California Institute of Technology
LARRY D. BROWN, Cornell University
LLOYD S.CLUFF, Pacific Gas & Electric
BRUCE M. CROWE, Los Alamos National Laboratory
JOHN C.CROWELL, University of California, Santa Barbara
EDWARD A.KELLER, University of California, Santa Barbara
KENNET H R.LAJOIE, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park
LARRY MAYER , Miami University
DAVID NASH, University of Cincinnati
DONALD W.PETERSON, U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver
KENNET H L.PIERCE, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver
ST ANLEY A.SCHUMM, Colorado State University
DAVID P.SCHWARTZ, Woodward-Clyde Consultants
D. BURT ON SLEMMONS, University of Nevada, Reno
ART HUR G. SYLVEST ER, University of California, Santa Barbara
WAYNE THAT CHER, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park
ROBERT S.YEATS, Oregon State University
Staff
THOMAS M.USSELMAN
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iv
Geophysics Study Committee
ART HUR E. MAXWELL , The University of Texas at Austin, Chairman
†ALLEN F.AGNEW , Geological Consultant,Corvallis, Oregon
†RICHARD A.ANTHES, National Center for Atmospheric Research
*COLIN BULL, Mercer Island, Washington
GORDON P.EATON, Texas A&M University
DEVRIE S.INTRILIGATOR, Carmel Research Center
*NICHOLAS C.MATALAS, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston
J. MURRAY MITCHELL, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
*V.RAMA MURT HY, University of Minnesota
†RICHARD J.O'CONNELL, Harvard University
†MARTIN WALT, Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Inc.
FERRIS WEBST ER, University of Delaware
Liaison Representatives
RALPH ALEWINE, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
BRUCE B.HANSHAW , U.S. Geological Survey, Reston
GEORGE A.KOLST AD, Department of Energy
MICHAEL MAYHEW, National Science Foundation
NED OSTENSO, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SHELBY TILFORD, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Staff
THOMAS M.USSELMAN
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†Terms began July 1, 1985.
*Terms ended June 30, 1985.
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Geophysics Research Forum
DON L.ANDERSON, California Institute of Technology, Chairman
ST ANLEY I. AUERBACH, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
JOHN J .BOLAND , The Johns Hopkins University
THOMAS M. DONAHUE, University of Michigan
CHARLES L.DRAKE , Dartmouth College
PETER S.EAGLESON , Massachusetts Institute of Technology
W. GARY ERNST, University of California, Los Angeles
JOHN D.HAUN, Evergreen, Colorado
WILLIAM W. HAY, University of Colorado
CHARLES L.HOSLER, Pennsylvania State University
DEVRIE S.INTRILIGATOR, Carmel Research Center
KEIT H A. KVENVOLDEN , U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park
C.GORDON LITTLE , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
CHARLES J .MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey
ART HUR E. MAXWELL , The University of Texas at Austin
FRANK B.McDONALD, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
WALT ER H. MUNK, University of California, San Diego
J ACK E.OLIVER, Cornell University
EUGENE N.PARKER, The University of Chicago
FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University
HOWARD J.PINCUS, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee
PAUL W. POMEROY, Rondout Associates, Inc.
RICHARD H.RAPP, The Ohio State University
ROGER R. REVELLE, University of California, San Diego
VERNER E.SUOMI, University of Wisconsin, Madison
FERRIS WEBST ER, University of Delaware
GUNTER E.WELLER, University of Alaska
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Staff
Ex Officio
Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
JOHN D.BOSSLER,
ROBERT K. CRANE,
PEMBROKE J.HART
Dartmouth College
ROBERT HOFSTADTER, Stanford University
National Geodetic Survey
FRANK D. DRAKE, University of California, Santa Cruz
Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
vi
Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
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vii
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources
HERBERT FRIEDMAN, National Research Council, Chairman
CLARENCE R.ALLEN, California Institute of Technology
THOMAS D. BARROW, Standard Oil Company, Ohio (Retired)
ELKAN R. BLOUT , Harvard Medical School
BERNARD F. BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GEORGE F.CARRIER, Harvard University
CHARLES L.DRAKE , Dartmouth College
MILDRED S.DRESSELHAUS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOSEPH L.FISHER , Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia
JAMES C.FLET CHER , University of Pittsburgh
WILLIAM A.FOWLER, California Institute of Technology
GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory
EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
MARY L.GOOD, Signal Research Center
J.ROSS MacDONALD, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
THOMAS F.MALONE, Saint Joseph College
CHARLES J .MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey
PERRY L.McCART Y, Stanford University
WILLIAM D.PHILLIPS, Mallinckrodt, Inc.
ROBERT E.SIEVERS , Harvard School of Public Health
JOHN D.SPENGLER , Harvard School of Public Health
GEORGE W.WET HERILL, Carnegie Institution of Washington
IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER , IBM Corporation
RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director
LAWRENCE E.M cCRAY, Associate Executive Director
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viii
Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
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STUDIES IN GEOPHYSICS* ix
Studies in Geophysics*
ENERGY AND CLIMATE
Roger R.Revelle, panel chairman, 1977, 158 pp.
CLIMATE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, AND WATER SUPPLY
James R.Wallis, panel chairman, 1977, 132 pp.
ESTUARIES, GEOPHYSICS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Charles B.Officer, panel chairman, 1977, 127 pp.
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND MAGNETOSPHERE
Francis S.Johnson, panel chairman, 1977, 169 pp.
GEOPHYSICAL PREDICTIONS
Helmut E.Landsberg, panel chairman, 1978, 215 pp.
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON GEOPHYSICS
Homer E.Newell, panel chairman, 1979, 121 pp.
CONTINENTAL TECTONICS
B.Clark Burchfiel, Jack E.Oliver, and Leon T.Silver, panel co-chairmen, 1980, 197 pp.
MINERAL RESOURCES: GENETIC UNDERSTANDING FOR PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
Paul B.Barton, Jr., panel chairman, 1981, 118 pp.
SCIENTIFIC BASIS OF WATER-RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Myron B.Fiering, panel chairman, 1982, 127 pp.
SOLAR VARIABILITY, WEATHER, AND CLIMATE
John A.Eddy, panel chairman, 1982, 106 pp.
CLIMATE IN EARTH HISTORY
Wolfgang H.Berger and John C.Crowell, panel co-chairmen, 1982, 197 pp.
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH ON ESTUARIES: THE IMPORTANCE OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY
APPROACH
Charles B.Officer and L.Eugene Cronin, panel co-chairmen, 1983, 79 pp.
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*Published to date.
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Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
STUDIES IN GEOPHYSICS*
ACTIVE TECTONICS
GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION
Robert E.Wallace, panel chairman, 1986, 266 pp.
John D.Bredehoeft, panel chairman, 1984, 179 pp.
Francis R.Boyd, Jr., panel chairman, 1984, 176 pp.
EXPLOSIVE VOLCANISM: INCEPTION, EVOLUTION, AND HAZARDS
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x
Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
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PREFACE xi
Preface
This study is part of a series of Studies in Geophysics that have been undertaken for the Geophysics Research Forum
by the Geophysics Study Committee. One purpose of each study is to provide assessments from the scientific community to
aid policymakers in decisions on societal problems that involve geophysics. An important part of such assessments is an
evaluation of the adequacy of current geophysical knowledge and the appropriateness of current research programs as a
source of information required for those decisions.
This study on active tectonics was initiated by the Geophysics Study Committee and the Geophysics Research Forum
in consultation with the liaison representatives of the agencies that support the Geophysics Study Committee, relevant
committees and boards within the National Research Council, and members of the scientific community.
The study addresses our current scientific understanding of active tectonics—particularly the patterns and rates of
ongoing tectonic processes. Many of these processes cannot be described reasonably using the limited instrumental or
historical records; however, most can be described adequately for practical purposes using the geologic record of the past
500,000 years. A program of fundamental research focusing especially on Quaternary tectonic geology and
geomorphology, paleoseismology, neotectonics, and geodesy is recommended to better understand ongoing, active tectonic
processes.
The preliminary scientific findings of the authored background chapters were presented at an American Geophysical
Union symposium in San Francisco in December 1983. In completing their chapters, the authors had the benefit of
discussion at this symposium as well as the comments of several scientific referees. Ultimate responsibility for the
individual chapters, however, rests with their authors.
The Overview of the study summarizes the highlights of the chapters and formulates conclusions and
recommendations. In preparing the Overview, the panel chairman and the Geophysics Study Committee had the benefit of
meetings that took place at the symposium and of the comments of the panel of authors and other referees. Responsibility
for the Overview rests with the Geophysics Study Committee and the chairman of the panel.
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CONTENTS xiii
Contents
Overview and Recommendations 3
1. Active Tectonics Along the Western Continental Margin of the Conterminous United States 20
John C.Crowell
2. Epeirogenic and Intraplate Movements 30
Larry D.Brown and Robert E.Reilinger
3. Evaluation of Active Faulting and Associated Hazards 45
D.Burton Slemmons and Craig M.Depolo
4. Active Faults Related to Folding 63
Robert S.Yeats
5. Alluvial River Response to Active Tectonics 80
Stanley A.Schumm
6. Coastal Tectonics 95
Kenneth R.Lajoie
7. Tectonic Geomorphology of Escarpments and Mountain Fronts 125
Larry Mayer
8. Investigation of Active Tectonics: Use of Surficial Earth Processes 136
Edward A.Keller
9. Seismological and Paleoseismological Techniques of Research in Active Tectonics 148
Clarence R.Allen
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CONTENTS xiv
10. Geodetic Measurement of Active-Tectonic Processes 155
Wayne Thatcher
11. Near-Field Tectonic Geodesy 164
Arthur G.Sylvester
12. Morphologic Dating and Modeling Degradation of Fault Scarps 181
David B.Nash
13. Dating Methods 195
Kenneth L.Pierce
14. Seismic Hazards: New Trends in Analysis Using Geologic Data 215
David P.Schwartz and Kevin J.Coppersmith
15. Volcanoes: Tectonic Setting and Impact on Society 231
Donald W.Peterson
16. Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste 247
Bruce M.Crowe
Index 261
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Active Tectonics
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 3
Overview and Recommendations
Ninety-two thousand people were killed in the Tambora, Indonesia, eruption of 1815; over 820,000 were killed in the
Sian, China, earthquake of 1556; 240,000 were killed by the earthquake of 1976 at Tangshan, China; and about 6000 were
killed in the 1985 earthquake in Mexico City. Less spectacular, but economically serious, are the effects of slower tectonic
processes or tectonic events of smaller amplitude that can, for example, disrupt river channels or warp coastlines and
harbors. Only the most stable blocks of the Earth's crust provide suitable long-term repositories for the disposal of
radioactive waste, yet almost no region is completely free of tectonic changes over millenia. Thus, the evaluation of active
tectonic processes is critical to many of mankind's activities, so that hazards can be minimized and structures can be sited
and constructed in ways that serve their functions most effectively, economically, and safely.
To fully evaluate ongoing tectonic activity and its associated hazards requires knowledge of the rates, styles, and
patterns of tectonic processes. Many of these processes cannot be described reasonably using the limited instrumental or
historical records; however, most can be described adequately for practical purposes using the geologic record of the past
500,000 yr.
In the following discussion active tectonics is defined as tectonic movements that are expected to occur within a future
time span of concern to society, and the significance of active tectonism to society is of special concern. The entire range of
geology, geophysics, and geodesy is, to some extent, pertinent to this topic; but the needs for useful forecasts of tectonic
activity, so that actions may be taken to mitigate hazards, call for special attention to ongoing tectonic activity, its rates,
styles, and patterns. The question of what constitutes ongoing is itself addressed because the patterns of activity leading to
some catastrophic events cannot necessarily be delineated by a few-year-long data base or even by all of recorded history.
For example, some of the largest earthquakes that have occurred were generated along segments of great faults that are now
seismically very quiet. In some places, the historical seismic record suggests, inaccurately, an inverse pattern of what the
long-term geologic record demonstrates.
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4
Understanding the period from the present to about 500,000 yr ago (the late Quaternary) forms the best basis for
analyzing active tectonics of concern to society. To study this period of time calls for a special mix of geologic,
seismological, geophysical, and geodetic techniques, many of which need major research efforts to achieve their full
potential. Some of the most critical needs are highlighted in this Overview. Detailed discussions of recent advances in
understanding active tectonic processes and their rates appear in the authored chapters that follow this Overview.
Many research programs that can provide background for the study of active tectonics have been considered in earlier
reviews by the National Research Council, including such reports as Geophysical Predictions (1978), Earthquake Research
for the Safer Siting of Critical Facilities (1980), Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation—Toward a Strategy (1981),
Effective Use of Earthquake Data (1983), Seismographic Networks: Problems and Outlook for the 1980s (1983), Explosive
Volcanism: Inception, Evolution, and Hazards (1984), and Seismological Studies of the Continental Lithosphere (1984).
Research needs in, for example, seismological and geodetic techniques of importance to active tectonics are well
formulated in these documents. The present study makes no attempt to review all these previous analyses but builds on them
and specifically endorses some previous recommendations. For the most part, the previous reports have not addressed the
premodern part of the time frame of the past few hundred thousand years, which must be understood to evaluate ongoing
tectonic activity fully.
Some potentially powerful techniques that should be developed by accelerated research are considered in this study.
The recently emerging subdiscipline of paleoseismology—in which geologic techniques are used to identify and evaluate
prehistoric earthquakes—has provided some of the most important recent advances in earthquake prediction. Similar
techniques have also permitted evaluation of seismic hazards for urban areas and for critical facilities such as dams and
nuclear reactors. Essential to such geologic research and evaluations are the ages of geologic units. Only by having the
geologic history calibrated by known dates can we calibrate the (1) recurrence intervals of earthquakes and volcanic
eruptions and (2) continuing rates and changes of rates of all tectonic processes. The determination of rates of processes and
means of dating materials of late Quaternary age (past 500,000 yr) thus are considered of high priority for research
attention.
Among other facets of geology that have been underused in studying active tectonics is geomorphology. Landforms
are everywhere; they are extremely sensitive to active tectonics; and geomorphic analysis has the potential for providing
insights into active tectonic rates, styles, and patterns of deformation available through almost no other approach. Serious
efforts are needed to accelerate research in quantitative geomorphology.
The need is recognized for improving geodetic measurements of active tectonics through new land-based instruments,
such as two-color laser distance-measuring devices, and space-related techniques, such as the Global Positioning System
(GPS). Regional seismic networks are considered essential to track the patterns of ongoing strain release, to assist in
mapping the activity of faults, and to assist in tracking the movement of magmas under volcanoes. Rapid data gathering,
processing, and analyses are imperative. Great volumes of data from regional seismic networks and a variety of strain
meters and geodetic networks must be handled quickly if useful forecasts (with lead times up to a few weeks) of
earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides are to be made successfully.
In summary, this study addresses tectonic processes, their rates, and methods of identifying and evaluating active
tectonics by analysis of events, especially in the time frame from the present to about 500,000 yr ago. Except for brief
comments, the socioeconomic and engineering accommodations for coping with the problems created by
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5
active tectonic processes are not addressed; they are in the domain of other specialists and other reports.
ACTIVE TECTONICS
In the earth sciences “tectonics” refers to the deformational structures and architecture of the outer parts of the Earth
and to the evolution of these features through time. Examples include folds, warpings and tiltings of crustal blocks, and
displacement on faults. In this study we define “active tectonics” as “tectonic movements that are expected to occur within a
future time span of concern to society.”
This definition of active tectonics has evolved from the many definitions of active fault that have been used in the
past. The lack of agreement on a single definition of an active fault has caused confusion and attendant engineering, social,
and legal difficulties. Many of the definitions inappropriately have mixed elements including criteria for identifying faults,
criteria for estimating degree of activity, and value judgments about the level of activity that constitutes acceptable risk to
mankind.
The terms active faults and active tectonics imply that events are currently happening, but here the term currently is
ambiguous. The present is a moving instant that progresses ever forward in time. To most people currently very likely is
thought of in minutes, or at most in years, whereas to a geologist a time sample that appropriately represents currently or
present might span many thousands of years. Focusing the definition of active tectonics on the future avoids selecting a
single period of time to represent the present and emphasizes the prediction of future tectonic events, which has the greatest
potential benefit in guiding hazard-reduction actions.
The frequency of occurrence of specific faulting events has been incorporated in some definitions of active faults.
Thus, various public agencies define an active fault as having had displacements (a) in 10,000 yr, (b) in 35,000 yr, (c) in
150,000 yr, or (d) twice in 500,000 yr. Such definitions have come to carry legal significance, and the great range in time
frame has caused confusion. The differences reflected in these definitions relate principally to the degree of activity and to
the levels of risk that are acceptable to various agencies. A far less confusing approach is to simplify the definition itself, to
describe the rates of processes separately from the processes themselves, and to judge what risk is acceptable to society
separately from the description of processes and their rates.
Geologists, geophysicists, and geodesists can identify the geologic structures and can describe and evaluate the degree
of activity and the patterns of activity. It is the role of engineers to try to accommodate and minimize the deleterious effects
of tectonic activity; policymakers must decide whether the rates of processes and engineering accommodations of those
processes result in an acceptable situation or level of risk.
TECTONIC PROCESSES
Tectonic deformation may occur as broad warping of the Earth's surface, termed epeirogeny, to produce or reshape the
larger features of continents and ocean basins, or it may be orogenic, that is, in more localized regions and belts to form
mountain chains. The vertical movements of epeirogeny may result in plateaus and basins, whereas the more complex
deformational processes of orogeny, or mountain building, include, for example, folding, faulting, plastic deformation,
plutonism, and volcanism.
The styles and rates of tectonic processes range widely; the most active and complex tend to occur along the margins
of lithospheric plates. The continental margin of western North America, where the Pacific, North American, and Juan de
Fuca-Gorda plates join, exemplifies the complexity that can exist at such boundaries. Strike slip predominates where the
Pacific and North American plates are in contact in Califor
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6
nia; convergence and subduction occur where the oceanic Juan de Fuca-Gorda plates slide beneath the continental North
American plate in Oregon and Washington; and, where the three join at the Mendocino triple junction, several directions
and rates of plate motion must be accommodated in a complex geometric pattern. The oblique relative movements of the
Pacific and North American plates farther south in Mexico result in the shifting of Baja California northwestward away from
continental Mexico. A similar pattern of crustal extension is present across the intraplate Basin and Range province.
Examples of epeirogenic movements include the broad uplift of the Colorado Plateau, the Monroe Uplift across the
lower Mississippi River Valley, the isostatic rebound of the Canadian and Scandinavian shields following deglaciation, and
the depression of parts of the East Coast of North America.
Active orogenic movements are well characterized by active faulting and active folding. Major strike-slip faults, such
as the San Andreas Fault system in California, disrupt the landscape by offsetting streams, sedimentary basins, and
mountain masses. The lateral movements are almost always accompanied by at least some vertical movement of crustal
blocks. Irregularities in the fault trend, or on the fault surface, cause local rotation of stress; crustal blocks may be forced
upward or downward—generally with the vertical movement accommodated along either reverse or normal faults—or the
blocks may be rotated between branches of a fault.
Extension of the Earth's crust dominates in some provinces, and, as in the Basin and Range province of the western
United States, extension is accompanied by vertical adjustments of range-sized blocks under the influence of gravity.
Horsts and grabens develop as individual crustal blocks rise or drop, or the range blocks tilt so that one edge drops
downward while the other edge rises.
Many ranges along plate boundaries are the products of folding of stratified sediments. Folding generally represents
processes of crustal shortening; crustal shortening also may involve the thrusting of one block over or under another, along
relatively gently inclined faults.
Where crustal plates collide rather than slide laterally past one another, the oceanic plate tends to slide beneath the
continental plate in a process known as subduction, although not uncommonly part of an oceanic plate rises and slides over
the continental plate (obduction). During collision with the Asiatic crustal plate, the Indian subcontinental plate has been
thrust perhaps more than a thousand kilometers beneath the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau.
Many smaller crustal blocks, or microplates, have collided with and have been accreted to the major continental
plates. Investigations during the past decade suggest that some microplates have migrated at rates of tens of centimeters per
year and have traveled across several tens of degrees of latitude. Such mobility of the Earth's crust is an important aspect of
active tectonics.
In the overall crustal shortening process, large thrust faults emerge from the lower crust and flatten as they near the
surface so that slabs of crust kilometers thick move tens of kilometers over underlying parts of the crust. In addition, large
slabs (kilometers thick) of the Earth's crust may slide or glide off regionally uplifted terranes under the influence of gravity
or as the result of widespread crustal stretching. Surfaces of decoupling or detachment along which sliding takes place may
involve tens of thousands of square kilometers, and the scale of folds and faults in the deformed plate above this
detachment surface may be complex and measured in tens of kilometers. Growth faults, which are similarly gravity driven,
can produce hazardous ruptures both at the surface and at depth. It is difficult to distinguish between those structures driven
by gravity from those resulting from either shortening or stretching of the upper mantle and lower crust, and the distinction
in places is moot.
Other gravity-driven movements of smaller masses of Earth materials are initiated in
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7
regions of high relief, including, for example, landslides, debris flows, and mud flows, as well as volcanic-related lava
flows, ash flows, and lahars. Even though such movements of masses result from active tectonism and may constitute
severe hazards, they are considered to be secondary to the more fundamental active tectonic processes and thus are not
discussed extensively in this study.
RATES OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC AND GEOMORPHIC PROCESSES
Even the most stable intracontinental and intraoceanic basin areas of the Earth's surface are constantly changing,
although at rates difficult to detect by classical geodetic techniques. But along the margins of continents and ocean basins
where plates of the Earth's crust collide or interact, the rates can be rapid and even catastrophic and, for volcanic eruption,
explosive.
Explosive rates are represented by such dramatic volcanic eruptions of historical times as Tambora (1815) and
Krakatau (1883), in Indonesia, Mount St. Helens, Washington (1980), and El Chichon, Mexico (1982). Along great faults
lateral displacements of about 10 m, along tens of kilometers of fault length, have occurred abruptly and suddenly to
generate great earthquakes. Eyewitnesses of the 1983 Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake reported that a meter-high scarp
formed in less than a second. Laboratory and field analyses show that fault ruptures propagate at rates of 2–3 km/sec.
Longer-term average rates of processes are exemplified by as much as 10 cm per year of relative motion between the
major plates of the Earth's crust. Geodetic nets a few tens of kilometers wide across the plate-bounding San Andreas Fault
in California show relative motion of up to 3.5 cm/yr; this rate is confirmed close to the fault using creepmeters spanning
only a few tens of meters across creeping segments of the fault. This rate contrasts with a rate of between 5.5 and 6 cm/yr
for the relative plate motion between the North American and Pacific plates, as determined from the rate of seafloor
spreading calculated from the positions of the magnetic stripes that lie symmetrically on the two sides of the East Pacific
Rise. The difference of 2 to 2.5 cm/yr between the rate of motion on the fault and that of the plates is distributed across the
western part of the North American continent, possibly affecting areas as far inland as 1000 km.
Vertical displacements of the Earth's crust can involve a sudden uplift of as much as 10 m, as occurred at Montague
Island during the Alaskan earthquake of 1964. In the active regions of the Great Basin province of the western United
States, average vertical displacement rates of mountain blocks relative to basin blocks not uncommonly have been as high
as several tenths of a millimeter per year for several millions of years. In Japan, near the Kozo-Matsuda Fault, average
displacement rates as high as 5 mm/yr over thousands of years are recorded. Although the centers of continents are
generally thought to be relatively stable, average uplift rates may range from 0.01 to 1.0 mm/yr for several tens of
thousands of years. Uplift rates on the Monroe Uplift, in the Mississippi Valley, for example, have been of this general
rate. It is estimated that the crest of the Ventura anticline in southern California has been rising at a rate of about 10–15
mm/yr for a few hundred thousand years.
Optimism about improving our capability of making meaningful short-term predictions of volcanic eruptions and
developing methods to predict earthquakes is predicated primarily on improving our ability to measure and to recognize
significant changes in rates of deformation. Among the signals used for successful prediction of eruptions at Mount St.
Helens were increases in the rate of displacement of the surface of the new lava dome and the rate of thrusting on the crater
floor adjacent to the lava dome (Figure 1). Increased rates of tilt of the flanks of Kilauea volcano in Hawaii have been
recognized for several decades as indicators of magmatic filling of shallow reservoirs and impending eruptions of the
volcano. Interpretations of increased seismicity—
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 8
a manifestation of strain release—have played a key role in successful predictions of volcanic eruptions in Hawaii,
Washington State, and elsewhere.
FIGURE 1 Prediction of eruptions. More than a dozen eruptions have been successfully predicted at Mount St. Helens,
Washington. One of the important data sets for the predictions is the rate of thrusting in the floor of the crater adjacent to the
lava dome. The crater formed during the explosive eruption of 1980 and the lava dome that subsequently developed are shown
in this photograph of April 17, 1981. The graph shows contraction across a thrust fault on the crater floor prior to the
September 1981 eruption. The black rectangle is the period within which the eruption was predicted to occur. The prediction
was made at the arrow, and the eruption occurred at the vertical dashed line [graph from D.A.Swanson, T.J.Casadevall,
D.Dzurisin, S.D.Malone, C.G.Newhall, and C.S.Weaver (1983), Science 221, 1369–1376; photograph by R.E.Wallace, U.S.
Geological Survey].
The concept that elastic strain must accumulate in brittle rock before rupture occurs is the underlying rationale for
earthquake prediction. Changes in the rate and patterns of strain just before rupture that are seen in laboratory experiments
suggest that marked changes—either decreases or increases in rates of strain or in sense of strain—may signal an impending
rupture and earthquake. A 2-yr halt in fault creep at one point on the Calaveras Fault prior to the Coyote Lake earthquake
of 1979 in central California may have been a precursor to that earthquake. Regional tilts of land surfaces in Japan before
the 1964 Niigata earthquake may represent the type of strain to be expected, but questions have been raised about older
surveys and their adequacy for accurately recording such changes. However, few, if any, recognized changes that have been
documented are widely acknowledged as having been clear premonitory signals for earthquakes.
Tectonic rates are reflected in rates and patterns of geomorphic processes and forms. For example, fault-generated
range fronts on which displacement rates average tenths of a millimeter per year for a million or more years are
characterized by low sinuosity of the topographic boundary between the range and basin and by faceted spurs. The range
margin sinuosity increases with slower rates, and the pattern of faceted spurs gives way to more highly dissected and less
planar landforms along range fronts.
The rates of geomorphic processes range dramatically from climate to climate, and different processes may be
dominant in each. For example, fluvial processes are dominant in semiarid areas, whereas wind action may be dominant in
arid regions and mass movement in some humid or tropical regions. In humid climates the potential for sediment
production could be great, but vegetation reduces erosion rates. These and other
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 9
processes of erosion, such as aeolian, raindrop impact, ice, and geochemical processes, interact in different climates to
affect collectively the overall degradation and destruction of landforms constructed by tectonic processes.
Slopes of fault scarps or wave-cut cliffs may be modified rapidly by gravitational processes. The near-vertical free
face of a few-meter-high scarp may disappear within a few hundred years, as material falls off the steep face to rest at the
angle of repose in a debris slope covering the free face. The scarp later becomes modified by downslope movement of
material according to a diffusion model, which operates at slower and slower rates. However in a desert climate, a meter-
high fault scarp may be clearly recognizable for a hundred thousand years.
TECHNIQUES FOR EVALUATING ACTIVE TECTONICS
The entire range of geologic, geophysical, and geodetic techniques may have a bearing on evaluating active tectonics,
but for studying ongoing processes some are more useful than others.
The period of past behavior of tectonic movements that is significant to predict future movements may range from
days to thousands, or even millions, of years. In general, however, the predictive value of events of the past decreases with
age, but the length of time analyzed must be sufficiently long to sample adequately a particular series of events, changes in
rates of events, or changes in patterns of tectonics. For example, large intraplate earthquakes generally recur on a given
fault at intervals of several thousands of years, and, thus, an estimate of earthquake potential based on only a century or two
of recorded history may mistakenly suggest quiescence in regions that hold the most severe threat of great earthquakes.
Each sample interval of time provides different insight into tectonic processes. Repeated geodetic measurements made over
days or decades provide details of tectonism unidentifiable in most geologic studies, but only from the longer-term geologic
record can many tectonic movements be identified and their rates determined.
In regard to active tectonics, the segment of the future of greatest concern to mankind generally is only the next few
years to few decades, although for safe disposal of some radioactive waste the period is thousands or tens of thousands of
years.
Events of the past 100,000 to 200,000 yr, and especially of the past 10,000 to 20,000 yr, are particularly significant as a
basis for predicting future trends. Geodetic techniques can be used to identify and quantify very recent historical tectonism,
and real-time geology and geophysics have already been used to provide predictions of specific future events. Some of the
greatest successes have been achieved in predicting eruptions of volcanoes. The basic physical and chemical models that
can be translated into geophysical, geochemical, and geologic predictions are in the process of rapid evolution, and many
advances seem to be just over the horizon.
Though this emphasis is on events of late Quaternary time, we do not exclude significant evidence about tectonic
history and processes obtainable from longer periods of geologic time, for example, the past few million years, or latest
Neogene and Quaternary time. Neotectonics, which pertains to the tectonics of this longer period of time, is the focus of the
Neotectonic Map Project under the Geological Society of America's Decade of North American Geology (DNAG) project.
For this review, neotectonics is distinct from active tectonics but is recognized as providing an important set of data.
Even the longer record cannot be ignored, because to a large extent those structures that originated in Mesozoic and
Tertiary time greatly influence the patterns of Quaternary structures. Paleozoic and older structures have less influence.
Stress orientations may have changed, but during any period of strain the prefractured nature of the Earth's crust and other
anisotropism affect the response of the crust. Furthermore, the tectonics of old features now inactive can cast light on those
currently active.
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 10
A strategy for geodetic monitoring of active tectonics was concisely presented in Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic
Deformation—Toward a Strategy (1981), and a few highlights of that study serve to indicate the suggested types of
problems, monitoring techniques, and evaluation procedures.
Questions exist, for example, about the relationship between the Chandler wobble of the Earth and earthquakes and
whether major earthquakes cause a discernible change in the polar path. Up to a point, classical astronomical observations
can be used to study such problems. However, improved geodetic space techniques such as very-long-baseline radio
interferometry and satellite laser ranging are rapidly advancing our understanding of plate motions; such observational
techniques are beginning to allow the direct measurement of present-day plate motion. Such studies can cast light on the
rheological properties of the asthenosphere, its viscosity, and whether gross strain is rather more impulsive than
continuous. Regional strain measurements are currently made by laser-ranging techniques in which measurements are
infrequent. By employing two-color laser-ranging techniques, corrections for atmospheric conditions are made
automatically in data processing and very frequent observations are practical. Small trilateration nets, level lines, and
stretched-wire creepmeters spanning only a few tens of meters are used for studying localized deformation along faults.
Tiltmeters, linear strain meters, and volumetric strain meters are among instruments currently used to study tectonic strain.
The precision required is of the order of a few parts in ten million, but some measurements of the order of a few parts in a
billion or smaller are desirable. Most instruments do not have, or barely have, such capabilities. Noise near the Earth's
surface, furthermore, exacerbates the problem of recognizing tectonic signals of such small size. Long-term stability of
instruments is a special problem.
The historical record prior to modern instrumentation can provide important insight into longer-term rates and patterns
of volcanism, earthquakes, and crustal deformation. In an area of active uplift in Iran, for example, a canal built 1700 yr ago
has cut down about 5 m below its original bed, indicating an uplift rate of about 2 mm/yr. In western North American, the
historical record of earthquakes is not even 200 years long, but in China it is almost 4000 yr long, although reasonably
complete for only about 1000 yr. Similarly there is a historical record of volcanism that is useful as a measure of the
frequency and characteristics of eruptions.
Because of low rates of tectonic strain accumulation in many places, the periods of time represented even by recorded
history do not adequately sample longer-term trends and cycles. The historically most inactive sections of great faults,
indeed, may be candidates for generating the largest future earthquakes. Geologic techniques provide the only means to
sample sufficiently long time spans during which many rates and patterns of tectonic processes must be analyzed.
The stratigraphic record contains clear physical evidence of past events. In Japan, for example, bountiful evidence of
complex volcanism is preserved by layer upon layer of volcanic ash, breccias, and lava flows. Furthermore, abundant
tephra layers—each of which has a distinctive chemical and mineralogic characteristic and was deposited within a few days
or weeks—over large areas provide distinctive time markers that permit many local and regional tectonic events to be
analyzed in the context of a time frame.
Stratigraphic relations along active faults may reveal a sequence of successive offsets and deposition of sediments that
permit the reconstruction of the history of faulting, the recurrence intervals, and size of faulting events. Sedimentary
structures such as sand blows, clastic dikes, and deformed beds related to liquefaction may reveal the history of strong
ground shaking and add to the evidence of prehistoric earthquakes. Repeated deposition of colluvial wedges along the bases
of fault scarps creates unique stratigraphic relations from which an interpretation of the paleoseismological record can be
derived.
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 11
Analysis of gross stratigraphy—the composition of the lithologic units and the deformation of beds—can indicate
whether rates of uplift nearby were rapid or slow, whether volcanic arcs were nearby, or whether terranes that contributed
clasts to the sediments had later moved away. At small scales, as in excavations dug across active faults, the sequence of
sedimentation and faulting can be analyzed to determine how often large prehistoric earthquakes occurred. The patterns and
rates of silting of rivers are extremely sensitive to tectonic changes.
Landforms, created by the competition between tectonic constructional and erosional destructional processes, contain
abundant evidence of active tectonics. Classical geomorphology, however, has concentrated primarily on descriptions of
landforms, and process and stages of erosion were stated in only generalized terms. In the past decade or so, quantitative,
process-oriented geomorphology has been directed toward problems of active tectonics. Studies of marine terraces, river
geomorphology, fault scarps, and eruptive volcanic features have demonstrated a rich and readily available source of
information about active tectonics recorded in landforms. Coseismically uplifted marine terraces may provide evidence of
prehistoric earthquakes. Direct measurement of fault-scarp morphology, for example, when analyzed according to an
error-function solution of a diffusion model, can approximate the date of a great prehistoric earthquake. From such
analysis, the pattern and recurrence interval of large earthquakes can be determined even where average recurrence
intervals are measured in thousands of years. In summary, as more research is carried out on the effect of active tectonics
on landforms, geomorphology can become one of the most powerful tools for evaluating active tectonics.
Clearly, tectonic processes are complex, often nonuniform, and the emphasis given here on predicting future tectonic
activity introduces the important problem of how best to state the likelihood of future events. A variety of formal
mathematical methods is currently available for expressing probability, but further study is warranted into techniques of
conveying to both lay and technical audiences the likelihood and consequences of complex tectonic activity.
Applications of such techniques as described above have recently led to some new insights about active tectonics. The
findings described below, furthermore, indicate some areas of research that are worthy of further attention.
• Individual or groups of large prehistoric earthquakes can be clearly identified by geologic means, such as by
microstratigraphy and microgeomorphology. The research efforts so directed are now termed paleoseismology. By
such methods the long-term patterns and timing of some great earthquakes have been analyzed.
• Coherence of signals among gravitational changes, lateral changes, and vertical changes confirm that tectonic
changes on a time scale of months or years are real and are amenable to analysis. From such studies the normal
dynamic behavior of the Earth's crust may be determined, and the predictive value of unusual changes can be
assessed.
• A variety of active-tectonic realms of diverse sizes has been recognized and defined; each realm is characterized by
distinctive patterns and rates of deformation. Such analysis provides a basis for zonation to assist in the reduction
of geologic hazards.
• Folding can be an important active-tectonic process. In the past, folding has been ignored to a large extent in
active-tectonic studies even though a rich and voluminous mass of information about folding has been in existence
for a long time in the classical tectonic literature. Further analysis will permit evaluation of the strain budget, that
is, the distribution of strain, between faulting and folding.
• Some well-known physical models such as the diffusion or heat-flow model have been applied successfully to the
analysis of geomorphic processes.
• Determining the distribution of microseismicity has proven to be one of the best
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 12
techniques for defining the pattern of active faulting. Such studies can “paint” the three-dimensional time-space
relation and show how strain is propagated. Additionally, digitally recorded data from broadband, wide dynamic-
range seismometers have permitted greatly improved analysis of the faulting process.
• Broad vertical changes in elevation that occur on an historical time scale, within what are generally thought of as
stable intracontinental regions, have been found to affect dramatically the regimes of major rivers, bank stability
and silting, and navigation and flood control.
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
Only when an infrequent paroxysm of the Earth's crust occurs in the form of an earthquake, volcanic eruption, or
landslide is the dynamic nature of the Earth's crust brought clearly to public attention. Largely unnoticed are slower
movements of the Earth's crust, which, nevertheless, are costly in terms of engineering countermeasures required or the
constraints that are placed on land uses. The demands for safety and continuity of service required of modern-day critical
facilities, such as nuclear reactors, large dams, and structures for defense, require a knowledge of the Earth's crust well
beyond the current state of geophysical and geologic information. As a result, costly mistakes have been made, and high-
priority programs have been delayed or canceled. Without a doubt the future will call for more such uses in projects having
even greater sophistication, greater potential hazard, and more complex interactions with the environment.
The Tragedy of Ignorance
For the want of information about active tectonics, numerous mistakes and extremely costly delays or cancellations of
major engineering projects have resulted. A few case histories will serve as examples.
In the early 1960s, the Pacific Gas and Electric Company began to develop a site for a nuclear reactor at Bodega Bay
in northern California. The first site selected was astride the part of the San Andreas Fault that caused the great San
Francisco earthquake of 1906. Soon, however, it became recognized that the fault might pose problems, and the site was
moved a few kilometers west, but still near the fault zone. During the excavation of the giant pit (Figure 2) that was to
contain the reactor, faults were found and concern was raised that movement on these secondary faults might rupture the
reactor and cause a major disaster.
At that time, and to a major extent even today, the geologic and geophysical communities simply had no scientifically
based answers to such fundamental questions as: Will the next rupture recur on the 1906 break of the San Andreas Fault, or
will it occur on some other fault branch or strand within the kilometer-wide fault zone? How much displacement can be
expected on branch faults and parallel faults at distances of several kilometers from the main break? How does a history of
one displacement in 10,000 or 35,000 yr on a branch fault factor into a calculation of probability of a future displacement
on that branch fault?
In 1969 the Bodega Bay nuclear reactor project was canceled after several years of acrimonious debate, because no
one had the needed scientific information with which to assess the stability of the site. As a result millions of dollars were
spent unproductively. The lack of understanding of active tectonics has caused problems in the development of similar
facilities.
As an additional example, in 1979 the building of a large thin-arch dam at Auburn, California, in the foothills of the
Sierra Nevada was stopped. Although much had been learned about earthquake hazards in the ensuing years since the
Bodega Bay nuclear
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 13
reactor project was canceled, data about the earthquake and fault-displacement potential of the Sierra Nevada foothills belt
were almost nonexistent.
FIGURE 2 Wasted effort! Excavation at Bodega Bay, California, for a proposed nuclear reactor began in the early 1960s. The
San Andreas Fault lies under Bodega Bay in the background, and branch faults were found in the excavation. Concern over
faulting events that might rupture the reactor caused cancellation of the project. Because of the infancy of the science of
faulting and relation to earthquakes, scientists could not agree on the probability of a faulting event or the size of such an event
under the site (photograph by R.E. Wallace, U.S. Geological Survey).
A team of earth-science consultants studied the problem for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and estimated that
several inches of displacement along the fault was very possible within the lifetime of the dam. Government geologists,
serving in a review capacity, estimated that 3 feet of displacement might occur on the faults during an earthquake. Clearly,
there was no satisfactory scientific basis for agreement on the exact amount of displacement to be expected, but both
groups of specialists did agree that fault displacement during the lifetime of the dam must be considered a distinct
possibility. After review of the fault data and the engineering characteristics of the dam, officials of the U.S. Bureau of
Reclamation concluded that even the smaller estimated displacement would exceed the accommodation capabilities of the
dam as planned. After 10 yr of preliminary site development at a cost of over $200 million, the project was halted
(Figure 3).
Benefits from Understanding
The veil of ignorance, at least with regard to earthquake hazards in the United States, has been rolled back to some
extent as a result of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, which formally began in 1977. Fundamental
studies of volcanic processes at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, similarly, have resulted in practical guidelines for
reducing the hazards of volcanic eruption. Examples of successes can serve to illustrate the kinds of benefits that are likely
to accrue from long-term fundamental research in active tectonics.
On October 28, 1983, an earthquake of magnitude 7.3 occurred in central Idaho. A spectacular fault scarp 36 km long
formed along the west flank of the Lost River Range, a typical Basin and Range fault-block mountain (Figure 4).
Significantly the 1983 rupture occurred exactly where it was expected in that it replicated a fault displacement of
similar size that occurred in late Holocene time, possibly within the last 5000 yr. Only in the past decade had the tendency
been demonstrated
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 14
clearly that historical breaks occur along the traces of Holocene breaks. The fault along the Lost River Range had been
studied in 1977 to evaluate the earthquake hazards at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), and Holocene
displacement had been identified. As a result of correctly anticipating the location and size of the 1983 earthquake,
automatic shut-off systems functioned effectively at INEL and closed down nuclear reactors, and a potentially hazardous
situation was countered.
An impact on policy and decision making that can result when a significant new set of data and some basic
understanding about active tectonics replace almost total ignorance can be illustrated by discoveries of the late 1970s and
early 1980s in the Mississippi Valley. There, until about 1981–1982, the causative structures of the great New Madrid
earthquakes of 1811–1812 were mysteries. As a result, in planning an engineering project, the earthquakes were considered
random events that could occur anywhere over a vast area of the midcontinent. A combination of geophysical explorations
including
FIGURE 3 Canceled! After years of site preparation the thin-arch dam planned near Auburn, California, was canceled because
faults of the Foothills Fault zone were found to cut the rocks under the foundation. Analyses indicated the possibility of
displacements too large to be accommodated by the planned design of the dam. Almost nothing was known about the Foothills
Fault zone before the dam was started (photograph courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation).
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 15
gravity, magnetic, and seismic reflection techniques revealed a buried but clearly definable rift zone (Figure 5). Faults of
the rift zone were shown to be ancient geologic features that originated as extensional features but that were being
reactivated by compressional stresses in the current tectonic regime. Geologic studies suggested a recurrence period of
600–1000 yr for such great earthquakes.
FIGURE 4 Faulting site predicted. The vertical bare slope is the fault scarp that formed during the 1983 earthquake at Borah
Peak, Idaho. An older, degraded scarp is represented by the more gradual slope between the man's feet and the top of the
vertical scarp. Analysis of the slope of the older scarp and microstratigraphy exposed in 1977 in a trench through this site
indicated previous displacement on the fault within the past several thousand years (Holocene time). Recently gained
understanding of fault behavior strongly indicated that such Holocene fault scarps are candidate sites for future displacement,
and this theory was confirmed here. As a result of the studies, nuclear reactors at the nearby Idaho National Engineering
Laboratory were equipped with automatic shut-off systems that functioned successfully during the earthquake (photograph by
R.E.Wallace, U.S. Geological Survey).
Although much is yet to be learned, the structures of the rift zone that caused the 1811–1812 earthquakes, and which
will likely generate future earthquakes, now are clearly recognizable. Thus, potential future earthquakes to be accounted for
in the design of engineering projects need not be considered possible everywhere in the mid-continent; engineering designs
can be much more realistic and cost-effective, and regional planning can be conceived on a more rational basis.
Much of the central part of the United States has been considered to be free of major earthquake hazards. Surprisingly,
however, in a seismically very quiet part of central Oklahoma, the Meers Fault has recently been discovered to have had
displacement of several meters in Holocene time, presumably accompanied by one or more major earthquakes
[M.C.Gilbert, Earthquake Notes 55(1), 1–3 (1985)]. A remarkably fresh fault scarp is still preserved, and the last event may
have occurred within the past few thousand years. The discovery raises the question as to how many other unidentified
active faults exist in seismically quiet regions of intracontinental regions. Newly developed methods in paleoseismology
now permit investigation of this question.
Socioeconomic Measures
Measures to counter the effects of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and slower forms of tectonic deformation fall into
four categories: engineering accommodations, sensible
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 16
use of the land, event prediction, and disaster preparedness. Engineering design and construction of structures to resist
earthquake shaking, offset by faulting, and differential settlement can greatly reduce the hazard of structural collapse.
Planning the use of land so that structures, especially those for dense occupancy, are not built astride active faults or in the
potential paths of volcanic lava flows or lahars is prudent and effective, and yet such obvious methods of reducing hazards
commonly have been ignored.
FIGURE 5 Causative structures revealed. Until various geophysical techniques were brought to bear in the search for
possible buried faults that could have caused the great 1811–1812 earthquakes, similar earthquakes were presumed to be
possible over a vast area of the Mississippi Valley. As a result, concern was raised about major engineering projects. This map
of the second vertical derivation of the total magnetic-field intensity reveals a northeast-trending magnetic feature that is
interpreted as a completely masked graben. Historical seismicity has been concentrated within the graben, and thus the rift
structure is presumed to be responsible for the generation or control of seismicity. [Figure from T.G.Hildenbrand, M.F.Kane,
and J.D.Hendricks (1982), Magnetic basement in the upper Mississippi Embayment region—A preliminary report, in
Investigations of the New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake Region, U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Paper 1236-E, pp. 38–53.]
In many states and countries, building codes and standards are followed to some extent, but in practice the craftsman
or builder, through ignorance or neglect, too often fails to incorporate the specified design features in the final structure.
Simple factors such as the lime content of mortar and the proper wetting of bricks before application of mortar in masonry
construction greatly affect the strength of buildings. Special studies are required when building near active faults in
California. Disaster plans for responding to potential hazards from volcanic eruptions have been prepared in California,
Washington, Japan, and Italy, among others.
Successful prediction of at least a few dozen volcanic eruptions undoubtedly has reduced the hazard to life and
property. Among damaging earthquakes for which claims of prediction have been made, only the Haicheng, China,
earthquake of 1974 seems to be widely credited by the scientific community as having had a valid scientific basis. For the
first time in the United States, a long-term earthquake prediction was reviewed and approved as scientifically valid by both
the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council and the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council. The
prediction was announced officially by the Director, U.S. Geological Survey, on April 5, 1985, and the announcement
stated that “an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 to 6 is likely to occur in the Parkfield, California, area within the next several
years (1985–1993)….”
Identification of the most stable tectonic blocks and prediction of the degree of stability, or lack of active tectonism,
have been even more difficult than predicting tectonic events. Few methods of analysis and little understanding of the
long-term processes are at hand.
The past two decades have seen a major acceleration in disaster preparedness. One example is the Southern California
Earthquake Preparedness Project, which was
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 17
started in 1980 under joint state and federal support. Preliminary prototype response plans have been completed for an
industry, a county, a large city, and a small city. Elements of the prototype plan include, for example, voluntary self-help,
communications, special problems of schools, law enforcement, and concerns of financial institutions. An early
requirement for the project was an accurate scenario of the tectonic process, in this case the detailed effects of a major
earthquake when it happened and the likely content of an earthquake prediction if it were made. These needs could be
fulfilled only poorly or not at all because of the state of earthquake science. All administrative, societal, economic, and
other steps to cope with the impact of active-tectonic processes hinge on understanding those processes and the rates at
which they operate.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RESEARCH PRIORITIES AND ACTIONS
A program of fundamental research focusing especially on Quaternary tectonic geology and geomorphology,
paleoseismology, neotectonics, and geodesy is recommended to better understand ongoing, active-tectonic processes.
Capability should be developed to assess the potential for, or to predict, tectonic activities up to several thousand years in
the future. To accomplish these goals, special attention should be given to the following research areas that constitute
especially powerful techniques or gaps or areas of weakness within the complex matrix of scientific disciplines needed.
We stress strongly, however, that the priorities given here are predicated on the existence of a healthy level of
fundamental research in related, broad subjects including understanding the continental lithosphere, plate tectonics,
energetics of tectonic processes, seismology, and volcanism. Other National Research Council reports have already
addressed many of these topics.
Research Priorities
• Dating Techniques: The greatest need is for data and models concerning the rates of active-tectonic processes.
Public-policy decisions, for example, about what levels of earth-hazard risks are acceptable, rest largely on
evaluations of the rates (and the variability of rates) of processes, the frequency of events, and the prediction of
when hazards might become critical. To this end, new and improved techniques of dating materials and events of
Quaternary age are needed. For example, thermoluminescence, uranium trend, beryllium-10, aluminum-26, and
soil development are among two dozen or more potentially useful dating techniques currently being investigated
as alternatives to the more widely used techniques, including radiocarbon dating. Tandem accelerator mass
spectrometry may permit several of these new techniques to become practical and may improve the usefulness of
older techniques. The breadth of applicability and precision of each technique need improvement.
• Tectonic Geomorphology: Research in tectonic geomorphology aimed at documenting rates, styles, and patterns of
movements is recommended as one of the potentially most effective means of analyzing ongoing tectonic
processes. Research in quantitative geomorphology is especially important.
• Geodesy: Research using geodetic techniques should be expanded to delineate the patterns and scales of ongoing
deformation. We endorse the recommendations in the 1981 report Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation
—Toward a Strategy by the Committee on Geodesy/Committee on Seismology. Techniques described in that
report range from ground techniques using strain meters and laser-ranging devices to space techniques using
very-long-baseline radio interferometry (VLBI) and the Global Positioning System (GPS).
• Paleoseismology: Because major tectonic processes such as those manifested by seismicity are commonly grossly
misrepresented by the historical time sample, pa
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 18
leoseismic techniques should be furthered. Physical exploration, such as trenching to expose and permit
microstratigraphic analysis in critical places, and geomorphic techniques aimed at paleoseismology are of high
priority.
• Real-Time Geology: Recording, processing, and interpreting of geologic changes in a time frame of seconds to
weeks—which can be termed “real-time geology”—are needed for the development of short-term predictive
capability. Special instrumentation, automation, and rapid computer processing of data are required. A far more
detailed understanding than currently exists of certain real-time Earth processes is needed.
• Probability Studies: Methods for expressing the probability of future tectonic activity need much improvement.
Incomplete data and debatable interpretations of data will continue to be a problem, and yet both conclusions and
uncertainties must be communicated as precisely as possible within the technical community as well as to
nontechnical decision makers.
Recommendations for Specific Actions
In order to advance these research areas of high priority, the following institutional considerations and technical
approaches are emphasized:
• Research in dating techniques suitable for analysis of Quaternary geology should be (a) recognized as a high
priority for support by funding groups—both governmental and private and (b) encouraged through workshops and
symposia under the auspices of professional societies.
• Studies of Quaternary geology useful in analyzing active tectonics should be more effectively integrated into the
earth-science curricula of universities. Special attention should be given to tectonic geomorphology including the
observational, experimental, and quantitative-theoretical elements.
• Emphasis should be given to research programs that employ geodesy to analyze the dynamic as well as the static
features of the Earth's crust.
• Clear and specific identity should be given to research concerning Quaternary structures, processes, and rates of
processes.
• Research programs to develop short-term (up to a few weeks) predictive capabilities for active tectonics, along
with the ability for rapid data analysis, should be established or accelerated by those federal and state agencies
responsible for issuing geologic hazard warnings. To this end, regional seismic networks and systems for
monitoring strain and stress in real time are critical.
• Preplanning is needed to assure the effective study of events of opportunity. The observation of volcanic
eruptions, earthquakes, or landslides while they are occurring can reveal facts about Earth processes unavailable at
any other time. For example, recording of strong ground motion during an earthquake, measurement of changes in
pore pressure during a landslide, or the changes in composition of gases during volcanic eruptions can be carried
out only at specific critical moments.
• The continuity of carefully selected programs aimed at gathering long-term baseline data with temporal
significance is desirable.
• The importance of regional seismic networks to the study of active tectonics should be considered and should
continue to be evaluated by the appropriate institutions.
• Wider use of trenches, tunnels, drill holes, and other artificial excavations to reveal structural and age relations of
tectonic units is desirable. Instrumentation of tunnels and boreholes, furthermore, can avoid spurious signals
(noise) found near the Earth's surface and thus permit recording of smaller signals significant to active tectonics.
• The further and more complete use of aerial photography and remote sensing at
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OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 19
many scales and in many radiation bands can reveal or clarify geomorphic and geologic relations otherwise
unavailable. Side-looking radar, which permits illumination of the landscape from angles impossible by natural
sunlight, can enhance selected geomorphic and tectonic trends. New, sophisticated technology, such as used in the
airborne profiling of terrain (APT) system, may provide previously unobtainable data on geodetic and geophysical
changes that are a direct reflection of active tectonics.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
U.S. Program for the Geodynamics Project: Scope and Objectives, U.S. Geodynamics Committee, National Research Council, National Academy of
Sciences, Washington, D.C., 235 pp., 1973.
Predicting Earthquakes, Committee on Seismology, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 62 pp., 1976.
Trends and Opportunities in Seismology, Committee on Seismology, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 158
pp., 1977.
Earthquake Hazards Reduction: Issues for an Implementation Plan, Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President,
Washington, D.C., 230 pp., 1978.
Geophysical Predictions, Geophysics Study Committee, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 215 pp., 1978.
An Assessment of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California Earthquake: Findings and Actions Taken, Federal Emergency
Management Agency, Washington, D.C., 59 pp., 1980.
Continental Tectonics, Geophysics Study Committee, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 197 pp., 1980.
Earthquake Research for the Safer Siting of Critical Facilities, Committee on Seismology, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences,
Washington, D.C., 49 pp., 1980.
Dynamics and Evolution of the Lithosphere: The Framework for Earth Resources and the Reduction of Hazards, Inter-Union Commission on the
Lithosphere, International Council of Scientific Unions, 62 pp., 1981.
Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation—Toward a Strategy, Committee on Geodesy/Committee on Seismology, National Research Council,
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 109 pp., 1981.
Goals and Tasks of the Landslide Part of a Ground-Failure Hazards Reduction Program, U.S. Geological Survey, 49 pp., 1982.
Effective Use of Earthquake Data, Committee on Seismology, National Resource Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 51 pp., 1983.
The Lithosphere, Report of a Workshop, U.S. Geodynamics Committee, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 84 pp.,
1983.
Multidisciplinary Use of the Very Long Baseline Array, Board on Physics and Astronomy, National Research Council, National Academy Press,
Washington, D.C., 202 pp., 1983.
Opportunities for Research in the Geological Sciences, Board on Earth Sciences, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington,
D.C., 95 pp., 1983.
Seismographic Networks: Problems and Outlook for the 1980s, Committee on Seismology, National Research Council, National Academy Press,
Washington, D.C., 62 pp., 1983.
Explosive Volcanism: Inception, Evolution, and Hazards, Geophysics Study Committee, National Research Council, National Academy Press,
Washington, D.C., 176 pp., 1984.
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program: Overview, M.L.Schnell and D.G.Heard, eds., U.S. Geological Survey Circular 918, 65 pp., 1984.
Seismological Studies of the Continental Lithosphere, Committee on Seismology, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington,
D.C., 144 pp., 1984.
Geodesy: A Look to the Future, Committee on Geodesy, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 179 pp., 1985.
Safety of Dams: Flood and Earthquake Criteria, Water Science and Technology Board, National Research Council, National Academy Press,
Washington, D.C., 321 pp., 1985.
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ACTIVE TECTONICS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL MARGIN OF THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES 20
1
Active Tectonics Along the Western Continental Margin of the
Conterminous United States
JOHN C.CROWELL
University of California, Santa Barbara
ABSTRACT
Active-tectonic deformation along the continental margins of Baja California, California, Oregon, and Washington is the result
of crustal mobility at the joining of the North American, Pacific, and Juan de Fuca lithospheric plates. South of the Mendocino
triple junction, strike slip predominates along a broad and braided system of both major and minor faults with a roughly
northwesterly strike. Blocks between faults are warped, folded, uplifted, depressed, and rotated as shown by deformed
erosional surfaces and stratigraphic markers, by geodetic and geophysical measurements, and by earthquakes. On the
southeast, this wide transform belt merges with the divergent boundary at the head of the Gulf of California. Farther to the
northwest, the belt joins the convergent plate margin near Cape Mendocino. On northwestward, vertical tectonic movements
predominate.
Geophysical, geologic, and geomorphic investigations of the coastal belt extending from the deep Pacific Ocean on the west to
well within the continental cordillera on the east are revealing much concerning the manner of deformation along such a wide
plate boundary. Data come both from intensive study of local sites, including those for engineering projects, and from broader
regional studies. Melded results from many types of investigation, skillfully summarized on special maps depicting tectonic
behavior, will aid in evaluating sites for construction projects and will contribute to basic tectonic understanding. Toward these
ends, stimulation is needed to coordinate symbiosis among all geoscientists, ranging from engineering geologists to global
tectonicists.
INTRODUCTION
The western margin of North America is technically active. Here rugged mountains and deep valleys are associated
with earthquakes and ground warping, which attest to the mobility of the crust. This is the belt where giant lithospheric
plates meet—the North American plate on the east and the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates on the west. This mobility is
measured and documented by employing many approaches, some instrumental and others through geomorphic and
geologic mapping, which are described elsewhere in this volume. In this short paper I review briefly the nature of the
crustal deformation taking place at present and back into the geologic past for the past half-million years or so along the
western continental margin.
Studies of crustal deformation are important in that they provide information useful in the siting and design
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ACTIVE TECTONICS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL MARGIN OF THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES 21
of critical engineering structures. But they also reveal much concerning the nature of crustal deformation and contribute to
our understanding of the strength of the crust and the way structural flaws or ancient weak zones influence where faulting
and folding take place. Local studies reveal the style, rates, episodicity, or clustering of deformational events. They
document the style and distribution of strain features such as faults, folds, warpings, rotations, translations, and
earthquakes. This information needs then to be dovetailed with regional investigations focused on arriving at better plate-
tectonic generalizations. The latter research aids in arriving at improved geologic models, and these in turn will aid in
understanding what is controlling deformation at local sites. To the extent that the models are applicable they will aid in
extrapolating concepts to regions where engineering structures are needed and planned but where direct information on
active deformation is missing because of the piecemeal and incomplete nature of the pertinent geologic record.
The question arises: How far back into the geologic past are deformational data useful in understanding the ongoing
flexings and breakings of the crust that affect human enterprises? A first answer to this question is: as far back as the
deformational style and strain pattern are essentially the same as those operating today. Except within limited areas, the
plate-tectonic control of deformation has been the same during the past million years or so. The limited areas where strain
patterns and styles of deformation have changed significantly are at plate boundaries, and especially at junctures such as
near the Mendocino triple junction. Locally within major plates, as along braided fault zones, deformation styles evolve
through time but across limited areas.
ACTIVE-TECTONIC REALMS OF CALIFORNIA, OREGON, AND WASHINGTON
In general, the active-tectonic realms correspond to the physiographic provinces of the western conterminous United
States because tectonic activity is primarily responsible for mountains and valleys, the shape of coastlines, and the
boundaries of regions such as the Basin and Range province. An active tectonic realm is, therefore, defined as a region
where the tectonic deformation in progress at present and for the past half million years or so has the same style and
pattern. This means that the orientation of folds and faults undergoing growth and the locations and type of earthquakes and
volcanic centers are nearly the same throughout the realm. Several maps have already been published that show features
such as earthquake distribution, stress patterns, and elevation changes (e.g., Buchanan-Banks et al., 1978; Zoback and
Zoback, 1980, 1981; Sbar, 1982; Gable and Hatton, 1983). The boundaries between some realms are sharp, but most are
transitional. In addition, the concept involves scale. In working with an area the size of a city or county, small difference
may be significant and may warrant separation into different subrealms. When dealing with a region as large as the three
Pacific Coast states and adjacent portions of Baja California and British Columbia, however, generalizations are
appropriate and local differences are smoothed.
In Figure 1.1, only the main provinces are demarcated. They are described briefly from south to north because of the
convenience of picturing the sliding of western North America obliquely away from the divergent plate boundary in the
Gulf of California. The main splintered boundary is the San Andreas transform system, upon which most of this sliding
takes place. The Basin and Range physiographic province is primarily a broad region of stretching in this scheme and is the
region north of the Mendocino triple junction where oblique plate convergence is taking place. The floor of the Pacific
Ocean west of northernmost California, Oregon, and Washington is both moving relatively northwestward with respect to
the continent (Pacific plate) and also eastward beneath it (Juan de Fuca plate). All these movements are relative, however,
with respect to the North American lithospheric plate, which is by no means fixed. For example, as the Atlantic Ocean
widens, North America may be viewed as moving relatively westward.
Gulf of California
The peninsula of Baja California, as it moves northwestward, is in the process of being rifted from the mainland of
Mexico, thereby opening the Gulf of California. The crust flooring the Gulf is expanding as new seafloor is formed at depth
along a series of spreading segments defined by a pattern of oblique transform faults (Figure 1.1). The peninsula broke
away from the Mexican mainland on the east about 4 million years (m.y.) ago (Larson et al., 1968; Moore and Buffington,
1968), and the spreading process is still continuing. This movement pattern results in several superimposed styles at a local
scale within the region: strike-slip displacements near the major transform faults, sagging and warping over pull-apart
basins where the rift floor is stretching, and downslope displacements along the margins of the Gulf of California where
high-standing terrain of the old continent is relatively unsupported at the edge of the rift.
The Salton Trough lies at the northwestern end of the
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between realms are transitional. Base map modified from Drummond et al. (1981).
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ACTIVE TECTONICS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL MARGIN OF THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES
FIGURE 1.1 Map showing active-tectonic realms along the western margin of the conterminous United States. Boundaries
22
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ACTIVE TECTONICS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL MARGIN OF THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES 23
Gulf of California rift and reflects transition into the San Andreas transform system (Crowell and Sylvester, 1979;
Crowell, 1981; Johnson et al., 1982). Within this region several complex fault zones (Elsinore, San Jacinto, and San
Andreas), characterized by braided slices, extend northwestward from spreading centers within the head of the Gulf.
Crustal blocks and slices within and between these fault zones rise and sink (“porpoise structure”) as lithospheric
displacements continue; some mountain blocks move upward and now stand high as the result of squeezing and shortening,
whereas, not far away, other sectors are depressed to form basinal receptacles for sediments washed in from adjacent
highlands. Even alluvial surfaces formed but a few millenia ago are warped and disturbed in this tectonically active region.
Such a pattern of deformation is shown by earthquakes, geodetic measurements, and the interpretation of landforms (Sharp
et al., 1972; Keller et al., 1982). The crustal deformation to be expected beneath a local site the size of a few city blocks—
an area appropriate for most engineering structures—will therefore depend critically on exactly where it is sited in such a
region.
Baja California Peninsula and Peninsular Ranges
West of the Gulf of California lies the peninsula of Baja California and its northwestern extension into southern
California constituting the Peninsular Ranges (Gastil et al., 1981). This is primarily a region of deeply eroded basement
rocks, broken into only a few long slices that are tipped westward. Compared with most of California the region is
relatively intact and stable, except for belts along the major fault zones such as the Elsinore and San Jacinto. Its western
margin is transitional into the California Borderland province along splays of the Newport-Inglewood Fault zone, which
parallels the present shoreline just offshore. The northwestern margin of the Peninsular Ranges borders one of California's
most complex tectonic regions, a region abutting the Transverse Ranges. Here, bordering the Los Angeles Basin, Miocene
and more recent crustal extensions and rotation of blocks have not yet been completely investigated. It is a region where at
places folds are currently forming and faults are actively displacing alluvial surfaces (Harding, 1976). In rough terms, the
northwestern margin of the Peninsular Ranges block is being forced into the Transverse Ranges as it is carried
northwestward during the opening of the Gulf of California.
California Borderland
The topography of the seafloor to the west of southern California and the northern part of the Baja California
Peninsula is characterized by basins and ranges (Moore, 1969; Howell and Vedder, 1981). Some of the ranges are
surmounted by islands, others reach up to near sea level to form shoals. Many of the ranges are bordered by long, straight,
discontinuous fault scarps as shown by subsea topography and the linear arrangement of earthquake epicenters. The region
is one where the topography reflects the structure closely: the subsea mountains, formed mainly in post-mid-Miocene
times, have been only slightly eroded. Basins, on the other hand, are being infilled by turbidity currents that are bringing
sediment down submarine canyons from source areas on land well to the east. The flat floors of basins have been smoothed
by sedimentation processes.
Transverse Ranges
One of the most active regions tectonically in western North America lies athwart the northwestern trend of mountain
ranges fringing the continent and is appropriately named the Transverse Ranges. To the southeast the Peninsular Ranges
parallel the trend of the continental margin, and to the northwest so do the Coast Ranges, Great Valley of California, and
the Sierra Nevada.
In this east-west trending province, marine terraces near the city of Ventura, for example, are moving upward at rates
of as much as 7.5 mm per year (Lajoie et al., 1982). In the same region, strata laid down at marine depths of several
thousand feet only a half-million years ago are now warped and uplifted well above sea level and are deeply eroded (Yeats,
1977). The region, which extends both east and west of the Big Bend in the San Andreas Fault system, is one where
different parts have had different tectonic histories during the past million years or so (Jahns, 1973; Allen, 1981; Crowell,
1982; Yeats, 1983). Some faults root at depths where earthquakes originate, others are related to sliding of beds across each
other during folding and are relatively shallow and not so likely to generate dangerous earthquakes. The region also
includes the area of the enigmatic Palmdale Bulge, where geodetic measurements show either general uplift during the last
few decades or episodic uplift, although the interpretation of the measurements is controversial (Castle et al., 1976; Jackson
and Lee, 1979; Mark et al., 1981; Strange, 1981, 1984; Stein, 1984). Moreover, the Transverse Ranges and parts of
bordering realms include tectonic blocks that have been rotated clockwise during Miocene
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ACTIVE TECTONICS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL MARGIN OF THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES 24
times (Luyendyk et al., 1980). Although these tectonic rotations are not known to be going on today, they have contributed
to the heterogeneity of the bedrock, and so affect strain patterns now under development.
The San Fernando earthquake of February 9, 1971, was located within the Transverse Ranges on a fault dipping
northward beneath the San Gabriel Mountains (Grantz et al., 1971; Oakeshott, 1975a). The fault was one of many known to
have broken young deposits and with fault landforms along it, such as the Raymond, Cucamonga, Sierra Madre, San
Andreas, and San Jacinto. But it was not known beforehand that this fault, nor the segment where the ground was broken,
was most likely to be the site of a disruptive earthquake. Most of the active faults in this region, and elsewhere around the
Los Angeles metropolitan region, have now been demarcated, but tectonic understanding has not yet progressed far enough
for geoscientists to pinpoint with confidence which fault is most likely to break next. Faults known to be recently active are
most likely to rupture again, but more research to learn which are the most dangerous is required.
The geologic situation in the vicinity of the San Fernando earthquake serves to illustrate problems in appraising future
earthquake hazards. Young and datable sedimentary deposits, such as alluvium and terrace deposits, are needed to ascertain
the time of movement of tectonic features that disrupt them. Faults are commonly known to be active where they cut
deposits only a few thousand years old. Faults are suspected of being active where the youngest strata or geomorphic
features cut are several tens of thousand or a hundred thousand years old. In the absence of datable young beds that are
clearly cut by faults or warped and distorted by folding, there is at present no satisfactory way to determine whether a fault
should be labeled as active and is likely to break again in the near future. Many faults are mappable in older rocks, but they
may have been formed by geologically ancient deformations under tectonic regimes and stress situations long abandoned.
The difficulties are illustrated in Figure 1.2, a cross section through the region of the San Fernando earthquake and
extending northeastward into ancient rocks, including those of Precambrian age. Along the edge of the valley, transected
young deposits prove that the faulting is young, but faults within the higher mountains underlain only by basement rocks
may have been active at intervals any time since the rocks were consolidated over a billion years ago. These ancient rocks
have also been tilted and folded as shown by layering in igneous rocks formed by settling of crystals on the flat floor of a
magma chamber in Precambrian time. Whether the tilting of the layering, which was originally nearly horizontal, took
place not long after crystallization or but recently cannot be determined from examining local outcrops. Regional
understanding of the tectonic history, however, may provide a basis for useful inferences.
FIGURE 1.2 Geologic cross section through the hypocenter of the San Fernando earthquake of February 9, 1971. Refer to text
for discussion. Modified from Oakeshott (1975b, Fig. 4).
That the basement rocks in this region have been folded and displaced recently is also shown by the shape of the
unconformity between young deposits and the basement (Figure 1.2; Oakeshott, 1975b). The syncline beneath the San
Fernando earthquake fault is accompanied by an anticline above it, even though along the plane of the cross section there
are no outcrops of the unconformity for about 8 km northward. The folded unconformity, dated as young because the
deposits just above it are geologically young, proves that the latest deformation of the basement block took place in recent
times. But this interpretation does not preclude many other deformational events, including several episodes of folding and
faulting in the geologically remote past. During the earthquake the San Gabriel Fault did not rupture the ground surface so
far as is known; this major ancient fault was ignored in the modern stress regime. Old faults may well become reactivated if
they are oriented so that the resolved shear stress on them is sufficient for slip within the present-day tectonic situation. For
this reason it is desirable for investigators to learn as much as they can concerning the style of deformation so that they can
advance reasonable inferences concerning which faults are dangerous. Models of crustal structure and behavior that are
well substantiated may be helpful in this task.
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California Coast Ranges
Northwest of the Transverse Ranges, and reaching into the area near the Mendocino triple junction, are several low
but rugged ranges interspersed with long intermontane valleys. The region constitutes the Coast Ranges. They break off
sharply both at the shoreline on the west and with the topographically flat Great Valley on the east. Throughout the
mountain belt, the ranges are uplifted and deformed as shown by warped young terraces and surfaces (Buchanan-Banks et
al., 1978; Page, 1981). The Coast Ranges are also constructed of ancient rocks that have been involved in a complicated
history through geologic time. For example, many of the older strata were formed at a convergent tectonic boundary
between lithospheric plates coming in against the continent from Pacific regions. Many faults in such areas have moved
again and again, and some may now be active, although it is difficult to document the timing of the most recent
displacements owing to the paucity of young offset strata.
The stretch of the San Andreas Fault through the central Coast Ranges is straight and constitutes the near-surface
boundary between the lithospheric plates. Activity along it is shown in two ways. First, it is the locus of continuous slow
creep, and, second, from time to time noticeable earthquakes take place upon it, such as the Parkfield earthquake of 1966
(Brown et al., 1967). The reach of the fault subject to creep and frequent small earthquakes extends on northwestward from
near the town of Parkfield into the San Francisco Bay area. This is the part of the fault system that is under close watch
instrumentally by the U.S. Geological Survey. Seismographs and instruments of other types are monitoring the behavior of
the walls on either side of the fault in a search for premonitory changes in strain, tilt, magnetism, electrical field, the depth
and character of small earthquakes, and the gas contents and water levels in wells (Raleigh et al., 1982). When a major
earthquake occurs along this segment of the San Andreas, geoscientists hope to have gathered many kinds of information
pertinent to understanding when, where, and why the earthquake happened.
The Coalinga earthquake of May 1983 took place in the central California Coast Ranges, with its epicenter near their
margin with the Great Valley and about 30 km from the San Andreas Fault (Eaton et al., 1983; Namson et al., 1983;
Wentworth et al., 1983). Although the tectonic setting of the earthquake is still under study, it appears that relatively rigid
crustal layers are deforming differently from those at depth. The occurrence of the earthquake at distance from the San
Andreas Fault attests to the mobility of a broad belt near the lithospheric plate boundary and also that geologists have much
to learn concerning its dynamics.
To the south of Parkfield the fault last ruptured during the Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857, one of the strongest
earthquakes in California recorded history (Sieh, 1978a,b). This earthquake displaced ground features about 30 feet right
laterally along the fault from the southernmost Coast Ranges, through the Big Bend region of the San Andreas Fault and the
central Tranverse Ranges, to the vicinity of the city of San Bernardino.
Within the San Francisco Bay region elongate crustal blocks are separated by several major faults of the San Andreas
transform system, such as the San Gregorio, San Andreas (proper), Hayward, and Calaveras (Crowell, 1976; Page, 1981,
1982). These faults are neither exactly parallel to each other nor to the direction of movement between the Pacific and
North American lithospheric plates. Where the faults diverge or converge in map view, blocks between them may be either
squeezed or stretched. Where they are stretched, the terrain sags to form valleys and sedimentary basins, and where
squeezed, terrain rises to make mountains. San Francisco Bay itself may well owe its origin to the sagging of the block
between the San Andreas and Hayward Faults so that ocean waters from the Pacific are able to flood eastward upon the
continent. In this region, terrains between major faults are undergoing deformation as shown by out-of-place old-erosional
surfaces—some have been much uplifted and dissected; others, such as marine terraces, are now depressed far below the
levels where they were formed (Atwater et al., 1977). Soft mélanges of the ancient Franciscan Complex stand high and are
prone to severe landsliding. The region as a whole is undergoing deformation, but deformation is even more concentrated
along the major fault zones (Brabb and Hanna, 1981; Prescott et al., 1981).
North of San Francisco Bay several terrains between discontinuous active faults are recognized (Herd, 1978; Fox,
1983). Shear stress between the two lithospheric plates is apparently spread across a region running through broad lowlands
near the city of Santa Rosa. The belt of displacements includes the San Andreas Fault on the west and extends well to the
east into the high Coast Ranges, roughly on line northwestward from the active Calaveras and Concord Faults. This region
is one where the active plate boundary is broad and diffuse and where crustal slices within it also show “porpoise
structure.” Geologic mapping with an emphasis on documenting recent deformation is hampered in the northern California
Coast Ranges by widespread dense forests and brush, steep terrain subject to landsliding, and the paucity of datable young
rocks.
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Me ndocino Triple Junction
The region onshore from the Mendocino triple junction, where the the Juan de Fuca, Pacific, and North American
lithospheric plates meet, is complex tectonically (Atwater, 1970). It lies transitionally between terrains on the south
undergoing transform displacements and those to the north undergoing oblique convergence. Moreover, the relative
movement between the major plates is carrying the triple junction slowly northwestward relative to the continent on the
east, so that through time, transform-belt tectonic features are being overprinted on those formed under a regime of oblique
convergence. Investigation of a few patches of Quaternary strata show both folding and faulting. In fact, wrench faulting
forming ahead of the arrival of the San Andreas transform system is recognized 120 km north of the triple junction (Kelsey
and Cashman, 1983).
Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges
From the Mendocino triple junction, coastal mountain ranges extend on northward from within California through
Oregon and Washington. Farther inland in Oregon lies the Willamette Valley and still farther eastward the Cascade Range.
Active volcanoes surmount the Cascade Range, including Mount St. Helens (Lipman and Mullineaux, 1981), and are
inferred to be the consequence of subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath the continent. The belt of active volcanoes
extends from Mount Lassen on the south, onshore to the southeast from the Mendocino triple junction, through Mount
Shasta, and on northward through both Oregon and Washington and southernmost British Columbia. Along this trend,
active deformation associated with volcanism therefore also requires evaluation, but the volcanic belt lies well to the east of
the coastline.
Along the coast, uplifted marine terraces attest to vertical tectonic movements, but active-tectonic investigations are
sparse. The coastal ranges, including the Olympic Mountains in Washington, were uplifted beginning in Pliocene time and
are still rising (Snavely and Wagner, 1963; Gable and Hatton, 1983). Fault scarps of Quaternary age have been identified on
the southeastern part of the Olympic Peninsula (Wilson et al., 1979) and on the seafloor (Snavely et al., 1980).
Earthquakes, such as those near Mount Rainier in 1973 and 1974 (Crosson and Frank, 1975; Crosson and Lin, 1975), and
geodetic measurements prove recent deformation (Ando and Balazs, 1979). Investigations stimulated by the 1980 eruption
of Mount St. Helens are adding much to understanding of the tectonics of the region (e.g., Weaver and Smith, 1983).
In northwestern Washington the tectonic style of active deformation changes gradually from one of oblique
convergence to one of transform displacements associated with the Queen Charlotte Fault zone. This zone, which lies off
the coast of British Columbia, forms the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates northwest of the Juan de
Fuca Rise. The transition zone lies inboard primarily of the fragmented Juan de Fuca plate (Figure 1.1; Clowes et al.;
1983). High river terraces and upland surfaces of Quaternary age attest to active uplift in the Coast Mountains of British
Columbia, inferred to be due chiefly to vertical expansion after heating of a thick crustal slab; this active uplift is
documented by the unroofing and setting of fission-track dates (Parrish, 1983). Active tectonics in this region appear to be
the consequence of isostatic adjustments to a previous history of oblique subduction that has thickened the crustal slab.
Other Active-Tectonic Realms
Several other provinces lie to the east of the coastal belt and locally display active deformation but are not dealt with in
detail here (Figure 1.1). They include the Great Valley of California, the Willamette-Puget Sound Lowlands of Oregon and
Washington, Sierra Nevada, Cascade Ranges, and Basin and Range province. In fact, from a global viewpoint, the whole of
western North America constitutes the deformed margin of the North American plate (Atwater, 1970). The eastern edge of
this belt corresponds to the abrupt eastern escarpment of the Rocky Mountains where they meet the Great Plains. The
relatively stable craton lies still farther east and underlies the middle of the continent.
DISCUSSION
These brief descriptions of active-tectonic realms along the Pacific Coast emphasize the mobility of the region.
Earthquakes, geodetic surveys, other geophysical measurements of several types, geomorphic studies, and geologic
observations document irregular ground movement both vertically and horizontally. Many small areas the size of cities
have been intensively studied, so that their deformational history is well known, but these areas are scattered and unevenly
distributed. In addition, the kind and quality of data documenting active deformation is unsatisfactorily variable.
Documentation of recent deformation from earthquakes and from most geophysical measurements deals with the
present and the past few decades only. It does not span time intervals long enough to reveal an understanding of average
conditions—the time sampling is
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ACTIVE TECTONICS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL MARGIN OF THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES 27
just too short (Allen, 1975). Therefore basic documentation of recent deformation is lacking both areally and temporally.
The former can be remedied only in part by adding many instruments throughout a region. Despite the huge cost, only
short-time-span information can result.
However, widespread studies in tectonic geomorphology—locally quantified by appropriate regional studies involving
geophysical measurements and isotopic and soil dating—will add useful information on averages over several millenia.
Investigations of these sorts have been most fruitful in local areas, especially around San Francisco Bay and in the Santa
Barbara-Ventura regions (Atwater et al., 1977; Keller et al., 1982; Lajoie et al., 1982; Yeats, 1983). These types of study
need to be extended throughout the coastal belt wherever there are young datable strata to work with. By means of such
investigations, deformational histories extending back into geologic time for tens of thousands of years will provide better
understanding of the episodicity or continuity of rates of uplift, sinking, warping, folding, and faulting.
A long look at the late Cenozoic geologic history of the tectonically mobile belt shows that activity along major fault
strands of the San Andreas Fault system, for example, has switched from fault to fault (Crowell, 1979). Studies of critical
areas using geomorphic data should aid in understanding the timing of these switchings. They will also help in
characterizing the style and timing of crustal movements on slices within fault zones themselves.
Vast proportions of the mobile belt extending inland from the Pacific Coast are not continuously underlain by young
datable strata or datable geomorphic surfaces and so do not lend themselves to geomorphic or geologic study aimed at
demarcating episodes of active deformation through time. Documentation of deformation in such regions will therefore
always be piecemeal and incomplete. Many of these intervening regions are underlain by older rocks deformed many times
through the geologic ages. Tectonic overprinting of one style on another makes it difficult to separate the results of those
crustal movements now under way from the results of ancient ones. Conclusions concerning deformation in these regions
will therefore have to come largely from extrapolation from where data are available to intervening areas where there are
none. These extrapolations need to be based on understanding of the regional tectonic behavior and on well-constrained
tectonic models. With this information in hand we may be able to place geophysical instruments, such as strain gauges, at
critical locations where they can provide warnings of impending earthquakes.
The classification of active-tectonic realms in this brief paper is built on the plate-tectonic concept, and much local
research at present is striving to add details to this concept and to improve models. In fact, maps at scales ranging from
local areas to large regions, showing the style of active deformation, will provide a useful way to synthesize and portray
data from both observations and models. More subsurface data are also needed to improve the models. Much crustal
extension and shortening prevails in the upper few tens of kilometers of the crust. Profiles using the reflection seismograph
will be especially helpful in outlining the structure at depth, including the position and character of décollement zones. The
fine structure and behavior of small crustal units or blocks in three dimensions is not yet fully melded into global plate-
tectonic theory.
Progress in tectonic understanding will be strongly accelerated if there is better coordination among many types of
geoscientist whose professional focus initially differs widely. Local studies by engineering geologists will improve
understanding of the way small sectors behave through time. They reveal the style, rates, episodicity, or clustering of
deformational events, that is, they reveal the strain pattern under development in limited areas. Investigations undertaken to
evaluate the safety and suitability of sites for major engineering structures such as high-rise buildings, nuclear power
plants, bridges, tunnels, and dams provide examples of such local studies. Data and inferences from these investigations
will add significantly to tectonic models, which in turn will aid in extrapolating to areas where active-tectonic data are
sparse or lacking. All geoscientists need to find ways to stimulate coordination leading to mutual symbiosis.
During the decades ahead geoscientists foresee a marked improvement in the applicability of tectonic models, thanks
to the integration of data from local detailed studies, both geologic and geophysical. Geoscientists are challenged to
monitor these local studies and strive to place them into a regional synthesis. Both data and inferences can be depicted on
maps and diagrams that are especially designed to show and discriminate between basic information and interpretation and
to show active-tectonic realms more satisfactorily. Science and society will both benefit significantly.
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ACTIVE TECTONICS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL MARGIN OF THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES 29
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 30
2
Epeirogenic and Intraplate Movements
LARRY D.BROWN
Cornell University
ROBERT E.REILINGER*
Air Force Geophysics Laboratory
ABSTRACT
Major deformations of the Earth's surface are largely consistent with the tenets of plate tectonics, which predict that such
activity should be focused at the various boundaries along which massive lithospheric plates collide, pull apart, or slide past
one another. Yet crustal deformations also occur well into the interior of these plates. Some may represent the “distributed”
effects of distant plate boundaries, as, for example, the earthquakes of the intermontane western United States. Some, such as
the geodetically observed uplift over a deep magma chamber in the Rio Grande rift of New Mexico, may correspond to
incipient formation of a new plate boundary. Others, like the subtle, broad uplifts and subsidences in the nominally “stable”
cratonic interiors, are much more puzzling. Such motions often appear estranged, if not divorced, from accepted plate-tectonic
processes. Postglacial rebound, a well-known phenomenon in portions of North America and Europe, also appears to be an
inadequate explanation for many observations.
Understanding contemporary motions of plate interiors is often hindered by the paucity and uncertain accuracy of relevant
geophysical and geodetic observations. Yet intraplate tectonics constitutes more than a scientific enigma. Even seemingly slow
vertical motions may threaten river courses or seafront properties on socially relevant time scales, and the subtle strains
accumulating elsewhere may portend future earthquakes or volcanoes in the least predictable places.
INTRODUCTION
Even a cursory glance at global earthquake activity makes clear that much of the world's tectonic activity is
concentrated in relatively narrow belts (Figure 2.1). According to the theory of plate tectonics, these earthquake belts, and
the similar patterns of volcanic activity, mark the currently active boundaries between large, lithospheric plates that are
moving relative to one another (e.g., Dewey, 1975). The Pacific “Ring-of-Fire,” for example, is associated primarily with
subduction of the lithospheric plates carrying the Pacific Ocean beneath other plates carrying Asia, North America, and
South America. In the United States, the San Andreas Fault is considered a classic example of active tectonics associated
with two plates (Pacific and North America) sliding past one another.
However, plate boundaries are far from being the
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*Robert E.Reilinger is now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 31
whole story as far as active tectonics is concerned. In many parts of the world, within both ocean basins as well as
continental interiors, there are concentrations of earthquake and volcanic activity that seem divorced from plate-tectonic
precepts. Hawaii is a dramatic example. The volcanoes of the Hawaiian Islands-Emperor Seamount chain are generally
believed to result from upwelling of magmas from a source beneath the Pacific lithospheric plate. Although the geometry
of the volcanic chain appears to be due to the motion of this plate over the underlying mantle “hot spot,” the hot spot itself
is arguably a phenomenon independent from the overlying global plate framework.
FIGURE 2.1 Global seismicity. Earthquakes tend to be concentrated along relatively narrow belts that define the boundaries of
active lithospheric plates. However, some earthquakes also occur well within the plates thus defined. Examples include
southeast Asia and the intermontane western United States (after Barazangi and Dorman, 1968).
Regions such as southeast Asia and the western United States, where plate boundaries cut into continents, seem
especially prone to intraplate tectonics. The volcanic and seismic activity in such areas is conspicuous (Figure 2.1) and
often dramatic (Figure 2.2). The semantics of whether tectonic activity in such areas should be be considered truly
intraplate or treated as some kind of distributed effect of a distant plate boundary largely begs the issue. Regardless of
nomenclature, the fundamental causes of many such phenomena remain unclear, and their place in the plate-tectonic
framework unresolved.
The ancient Precambrian cores of the world's continents contain special problems for understanding active tectonics.
Although the most obvious manifestations of contemporary tectonics, such as seismicity, are decidedly less pronounced
than along the plate boundaries, or even in the geologically younger intraplate regions, earthquakes do occur in the craton
and near its periphery. In the United States, two of the most destructive earthquakes in history occurred not along the San
Andreas Fault but in the nominally “stable” eastern United States near New Madrid, Missouri, in 1811–1812, and near
Charleston, South Carolina, in 1886. Seismicity continues in many parts of the eastern United States, and faults of relatively
recent geologic vintage have been identified (York and Oliver, 1976).
That parts of the cratonic interior are tectonically active in the present time should perhaps not be surprising in view of
the geologic record. Features such as the Michigan Basin and the Adirondack Dome (Figure 2.3) are incontrovertible
evidence that the cratons were subject to major vertical motions in the past that lack a clear connection to the plate-tectonic
scenarios of those times. Geologic strata attest to many gentle inundations and uplifts of the interior platforms that reflect
relative mo
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 32
tion of land and sea (Sloss, 1963), motions that are usually referred to as epeirogenic to distinguish them from the more
severe forms of deformation associated with mountain building. Geodetic surveys over the cratons of North America and
Eurasia appear to indicate that these regions are still going up and down at remarkable rates, although the significance of
some of these observations is obscured by an ongoing debate over their accuracy.
FIGURE 2.2 Faulting associated with the 1944 Dixie Valley, Nevada, earthquake (from Stewart, 1980).
Any consideration of the active deformation of intraplate interiors must, of course, recognize the importance of
vertical motions associated with the retreat of the ice sheets since the last major continental glaciation. Studies of the
contemporary uplift of Fennoscandia as documented by leveling observations and tilted beach terraces are now classic
(e.g., Niskanen, 1939). The effects of postglacial rebound are not restricted to areas in proximity to the former ice sheets
but are global in extent and of particular importance in coastal areas.
In the following discussion, we outline some of the evidence for active tectonics in intraplate areas, review some of the
obstacles to our fuller understanding of their causes, and assess their potential impact on society.
EARTHQUAKE DEFORMATION
While the underlying causes of intraplate earthquakes remain problematical, some are clearly associated with large
and, in some cases, destructive surface movements. Such earthquakes are not limited to continental areas (Wiens and Stein,
1984). Surface faulting is but one of the more obvious expressions of earthquake deformation (Figure 2.2). In some cases,
geodetic measurements delineate more subtle patterns of motion. It is reasonable to assume, and the limited evidence
available suggests, that intraplate earthquakes are characterized by a deformation cycle with preseismic, coseismic,
postseismic, and interseismic phases similar to that inferred for interplate events (Thatcher, Chapter 10, this volume).
Coseismic, and to a lesser extent, postseismic deformation have been documented by geodetic measurements for a number
of intraplate earthquakes in the United States (Table 2.1). Movements of several centimeters are common, and several
meters are possible. Undoubtedly similar movements have accompanied other intraplate events both in the United States
and elsewhere but have gone undetected owing to the lack of appropriately timed or spaced observations.
Where sufficiently detailed geodetic observations are available, coseismic movements are roughly consistent with the
deformation predicted by simple dislocation theory (e.g., Savage and Hastie, 1966). Intraplate postseismic deformation has
been attributed to afterslip on the earthquake fault (e.g., Savage and Church, 1974) or to subsequent viscoelastic relaxation
(Koseluk and Bischke, 1981).
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 33
FIGURE 2.3 The Adirondack Dome (Courtesy Land Care, Inc., Boonville, New York). Plate interiors often contain isolated
geologic structures that are difficult to relate to ancient plate boundaries. The Michigan Basin is another classic example.
TABLE 2.1 Vertical Deformation Associated with U.S. Intraplate Earthquakes
Earthquake Magnitude Coseismic Postseismic References
Amplitude Extent, km Amplitude Extent, km
Hebgen Lake, 7.5 6 m (15 cm) 20×50 (80×140) 30 cm (7 cm)a 100 (40)a Myers and
Montana (1959) Hamilton, 1964
Savage and Hastie,
1966
Reilinger et al.,
1977
Reilinger, 1985
Savage et al., 1985
Borah Peak, Idaho 7.3 1.5 m 50 Stein and
(1983) Barrientos, 1985
Dixie Valley, Nevada 7.1 1.5 m (1–2 m)a 10 7.5 cm 8 Savage and Hastie,
(1954) 1966
Savage and Church,
1974
Valentine, Texas 6.4 10 cm 50 Ni et al., 1981
(1931)
Yellowstone Park, 6 10 cm Pitt et al., 1979
Wyoming (1975)
Oroville, California 5.7 10 cm 15 Savage et al., 1977
(1975)
aHorizontal movement, 1971–1984.
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 34
Preseismic deformation, with its obvious implications for prediction, has proven elusive to capture in the more active
interplate zones (e.g., Thatcher, 1981), so it is not surprising that it has not yet been unambiguously observed in the
intraplate environment. Measurement of coseismic and postseismic deformation is guided by the known time and location
of a specific earthquake. In contrast, preseismic motion is likely to be observed more by chance than design, as when
repeated geodetic surveys, often carried out for other reasons, happen to cover the location of and a time interval
immediately preceding some later earthquake.
Interseismic deformation, the slow buildup of strain during the time periods between earthquakes, is difficult to
measure for similar reasons, but also because it accumulates at rates much slower than the other deformation phases. In his
review of evidence for horizontal strain accumulation from geodetic measurements, Savage (1983) found significant strain
rates in a number of areas, including the Watsatch Fault near Salt Lake City, Utah, the area near Hebgen Lake, Montana,
the main seismic belt of western Nevada, and the Seattle, Washington, area. Some of these deformations may well reflect
the secular accumulation of interseismic strain.
Earthquakes in the stable interior pose a special problem. It has proven extremely difficult to associate intraplate
earthquakes, even large ones, with specific faults in areas like the eastern United States. The easternmost example of
Table 2.1 is that of inferred coseismic deformation associated with the 1931 Valentine, Texas, earthquake, which is
arguably still within the seismic regime of the active Rio Grande rift system (Ni et al., 1981). Although Schilt and
Reilinger (1981) reported some curious vertical motions near the New Madrid seismic zone that may be earthquake related,
the connection remains speculative. Aggarwal and Sykes (1978) related low-level seismicity in the New York area to the
Ramapo Fault, while recent studies near Charleston (Talwani et al., 1984) may have identified subsurface faulting
associated with the major nineteenth century earthquake there. Zoback et al. (1980) found
FIGURE 2.4 Damage caused by the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake [from U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Paper 1028
(1977)]. The historical record makes clear that earthquakes are a threat even in the nominally “stable” interior.
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 35
evidence of surprisingly large horizontal strains in southeastern New York, which may reflect ongoing ductile deformation
at depth. However, an examination of the limited number of horizontal resurveys in other areas of the eastern United States
associated with seismicity failed to detect any significant motion (Krueger et al., 1983).
FIGURE 2.5 Area affected by the 1886 Charleston earthquake compared with other major U.S. earthquakes (modified after
Rankin, 1977). Earthquakes in the eastern United States are felt over a larger area than an equivalent-sized earthquake in the
west owing to more efficient propagation of seismic energy. Intensities are given using the Modified Mercali scale.
This paucity of surface manifestation, together with the comparatively low recurrence rate of earthquakes and
relatively short historic record, makes seismic-hazard mapping an especially difficult endeavor in the stable interior. Yet
earthquake hazard can by no means be neglected in these areas. Major earthquakes in the New Madrid, Missouri, area in
1811–1812 and near Charleston, South Carolina (Figure 2.4), are well-known testaments to the uncertain vulnerability of
major population centers in such nominally quiescent regions (Sykes, 1978). Potential seismic hazard in the stable interior
is exacerbated by the more efficient transmission of seismic energy. An earthquake in the eastern United States is likely to
be felt over or damage a much larger area than an equivalent earthquake along the San Andreas Fault, for example
(Figure 2.5). Mitigating hazards from earthquakes in the stable interior remains one of least tractable yet most important
problems in contemporary tectonics.
MAGMA INFLATION
Another dramatic demonstration of intraplate tectonics are the oceanic volcanic chains such as Hawaii, which
unequivocably confirm that not all volcanoes lie over subduction zones. Movements associated with such volcanoes have
been closely monitored for some time (e.g., Wilson, 1935) and are generally thought to reflect the episodic inflation and
deflation (eruption) of subsurface magma chambers (e.g., Decker, 1969). Observations of ground motion near volcanoes,
together with attendant seismic activity, have proven to be effective predictors for future eruptions.
Somewhat less well known, perhaps, are other results that suggest subsurface magma injection in areas of not-so-
recent volcanism. One example of surface deformation attributed to magma at depth comes from the Rio Grande rift of
central New Mexico. A variety of geophysical measurements near Socorro, New Mexico, indicate the existence of a thin,
but extensive, mid-crustal magma layer (Sanford et al., 1977). Precise leveling over this magma body indicates vertical
uplift of about 15 cm over a 40-yr period (Reilinger and Oliver, 1976). Recent measurements indicate (Figure 2.6) that the
cen
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FIGURE 2.6 Uplift in central New Mexico measured by repeated leveling (Larsen et al., 1985). This movement is attributed to
inflation of a mid-crustal magma body. This inflation may also be responsible for seismicity of this area.
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 36
tral uplift over the magma chamber is flanked by a zone of subsidence, the overall pattern suggesting withdrawal of magma
from one reservoir and injection into another (Larsen et al., 1985). An intriguing aspect of this uplift is that it occurs in an
area where there have been no historical eruptions, although volcanic rocks in the rift attest to such activity as recently as
100,000 yr ago (Lipman and Mehnert, 1975). Whether this ground motion portends some future eruption or is part of some
normal cycle of magma transfer at depth with little chance of breaking out at the surface has yet to be ascertained.
Geodetic observations have been linked to possible intracrustal magmatism in other parts of the Rio Grande rift (e.g.,
Reilinger et al., 1979), in Yellowstone National Park (Pelton and Smith, 1982), and, most recently, near Mammoth Lakes in
eastern California (Savage and Clark, 1982; Castle et al., 1984). In the latter example, changes in elevation and horizontal
strain have been interpreted to indicate magmatic resurgence of the Long Valley caldera by inflation of an approximately
10-km-deep magma chamber. This inflation may be responsible for a series of four magnitude-6 earthquakes in the area in
1980. Because there have been several explosive eruptions and extrusion of rhyolite domes in this area during the past 400
yr, and because Long Valley is less than 200 miles from major cities like Sacramento and San Francisco, deformation and
seismic activity are being monitored in order to predict possible future activity.
The local and regional doming near Yellowstone is difficult to relate to standard plate-boundary processes. Magma
injection is thought to result from a “hot spot” that can be traced into the North American continent along the Snake River
Plain (e.g., Suppe et al., 1975). In this sense it is clearly an intraplate phenomena. On the other hand, it could be argued
that the apparent magma uplifts near Mammoth Lakes and in the Rio Grande rift really represent plate-boundary processes.
The former may be a relict of the subduction-related volcanism, which for the most part ceased when the West Coast
converted from a convergent to a strike-slip margin. Likewise the New Mexico activity could well represent the beginnings
of a new plate boundary, a rift that may evolve into a new ocean basin by splitting off the southwestern United States.
Semantics notwithstanding, such examples must be considered in order to understand intraplate phenomena. After all,
neither lies upon a currently active plate boundary per se. More to the point, the geologic processes that they represent may
well pertain to other “intraplate” phenomena whose association with similarly defunct or precursor boundaries is simply
not yet so apparent.
CRUSTAL LOADING
Contemporary deformation of the stable interior is virtually synonymous in many minds with postglacial rebound. The
broad doming of recently deglaciated parts of North America and Scandinavia has long been documented by geologic
studies of warped beach terraces and geodetic measurements of continued uplift (Figure 2.7). This motion is perhaps the
best understood, geomechanically speaking, of any type of intraplate deformation, although controversy still revolves
around distinguishing those possible deep-earth rheologies that are most consistent with the observed rebound effects (e.g.,
Kaula, 1980).
An important aspect of recent studies of postglacial phenomena, especially sea-level changes, is that this is a global
phenomenon, not restricted to the immediate area of glacial retreat. Concepts such as the collapse of a peripheral bulge
(e.g., Walcott, 1972) have been re
FIGURE 2.7 Postglacial rebound of Fennoscandia (Balling, 1980). Contours represent uplift in millimeters per year measured
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by precise leveling.
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 37
fined to predict a complex pattern of relative motion of land and sea the world over (e.g., Clark, 1980).
A persistent suspicion is that the stresses associated with postglacial rebound may be sufficient to trigger seismic
activity in deglaciated regions (e.g., Stephansson and Carlsson, 1980). However, the correlation between rebound and
earthquakes seems tenuous at best.
Land uplift following glacial unloading has also been reported on a more local scale. Hicks and Shofnos (1965)
correlated an anomalous drop in sea level in southeastern Alaska with recent retreat of a small ice sheet. The rate of this
local land uplift is on the order of 4 mm/yr.
Ice is not the only crustal load capable of driving surface deformation. Crittenden (1963), for example, reported both
geologic (deformed shorelines) and leveling evidence of continued local uplift in the area of former Lake Bonneville. This
rebound is inferred to follow the removal of the water load associated with climatic changes in postpluvial periods.
Depression of the land surface by filling of new reservoirs is well known (e.g., Longwell, 1960). Holzer (1979) even
reported evidence that drawdown of aquifers in southern Arizona has been followed by a rebound effect. In addition,
Opdyke et al. (1984) attributed post-Pleistocene uplift in northern Florida to crustal unloading associated with limestone
dissolution in Karst areas.
Redistribution of crustal loads by erosion, sedimentation, and faulting is fundamental in geology. Sedimentary infilling
clearly augments thermal subsidence to form some of our major basins (e.g., Sleep, 1971), and the importance of crustal
loading by thrust sheets is being recognized as a major factor in the formation and evolution of foreland basins and
basement arches (Quinlan and Beaumont, 1984). Perhaps a contemporary example is found in the south central United
States, where leveling results (Figure 2.8) have been interpreted to show uplift of a forebulge associated with sedimentary
loading of the Mississippi delta (Jurkowski et al., 1984; Nunn, 1985).
EPEIROGENY
Sedimentary strata that overlie large areas of the stable interiors like the central United States and eastern Europe
record a history of broad upwarping and downwarping relative to sea level (e.g., King, 1977). In some cases, large basins
or domes have formed, apparently unrelated—except by age—with distant plate boundaries. Formation of these relatively
gentle tectonic features is called epeirogeny, a term that still carries an aura of mystery. Indeed, there is no widespread
agreement on what causes these interior motions.
One of the most surprising results to arise from the analyses of precise leveling data is that many of these platform
areas seem still to be going up or down at geologically rapid rates. For example, a map of vertical crustal motion in eastern
Europe (Figure 2.9) published not long ago shows parts of the Russian platform going up and down at differential rates of
several millimeters per year. Leveling in the eastern United States (Figure 2.10) likewise seems to suggest that vertical
neotectonic motion is the norm, not the exception, in these areas, in spite of a long-term geologic record of relative
tranquillity (e.g., Brown and Oliver, 1976). Although some of these apparent motions may be remnants of postglacial
rebound, as in the Baltic Shield or the Great Lakes area of the United States, most lack a clear-cut neotectonic explanation.
However, before ascribing these motions to some new, unheralded form of intraplate tectonics, it is important to
recognize that there are major outstanding questions about the accuracy of the geodetic measurements on which most such
studies are based. Recent work has shown, for example, that systematic errors are more serious than previously thought and
that apparent changes in elevation once believed to be neotectonic in origin are now perceived by some to be artifacts of
observational errors (Strange, 1981).
Unfortunately, assessing the influence of geodetic errors on estimates of vertical crustal motion in areas like eastern
North America is still in an early stage, and initial results are too few and inconclusive (e.g., Fadaie and Brown, 1984). Yet
even a cursory glance at Figure 2.10 provides grounds for skepticism. In this figure are two independent estimates of
crustal motion, one based on water level and leveling in southeastern Canada and one based on leveling and sea-level data
for the eastern United States. Although the rates are similar, these estimates show a disturbing degree of inconsistency
where they join along the United States-Canada border. Until these data sets are reduced jointly and uniformly it is perhaps
unfair to expect complete agreement; yet, the question remains as to whether some of these patterns are more the result of
statistical smearing of unrecognized and inadequately treated systematic errors than real ground motion.
A prominent trend of the map in Figure 2.10 is the apparent uplift of the Appalachians relative to the coastal regions
and interior plains. Yet this relict mountain belt is generally thought to have last been active over 200 m.y. ago (Williams
and Hatcher, 1983). Since certain types of leveling error are known to correlate with height, is the Appalachian “uplift”
really the accumulation of such errors? Is the similarly inferred con
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Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
(after Mescherikov, 1973).
EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS
forebulge-type response to sediment loading of the Mississippi delta (Jurkowski et al., 1984).
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FIGURE 2.9 Contemporary vertical crustal motion (millimeters per year) of eastern Europe inferred from precise releveling
FIGURE 2.8 Arching of the Gulf Coastal Plain north of New Orleans indicated by precise leveling data. This arching may be a
38
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 39
temporary uparching of the Adirondack Dome in New York State (Isachsen, 1975) likewise suspect, or are real and
important neotectonic motions being revealed?
FIGURE 2.10 Apparent vertical motion (millimeters per year) of the eastern United States from precise releveling (Eastern
United States results from unpublished map by G.Jurkowski; Great Lakes and Canadian results from Vanicek and Nagy,
1980). Some of these patterns have been questioned because of uncertainties about the accuracy of the geodetic measurements
on which they are based.
Until thorough error analyses are completed, proper reservations about the reality of significant neotectonic motion in
at least parts of the stable interiors seem warranted. However, evidence for neotectonic motion in such areas does not hinge
solely on geodetic data. Holocene motions along the East Coast have been inferred from tilted beach terraces (Winker and
Howard, 1977) and from submarine geomorphology (Officer and Drake, 1981). Adams (1980) has even attempted to
correlate the relatively detailed changes in river drainage in the deep interior of the United States to contemporary tilts
indicated by leveling. Anderson et al. (1984) cited a correlation between patterns of modern subsidence indicated by
leveling and post-Pleistocene deformation of wave-cut terraces near Eastport, Maine. Albeit many, if not all, of these
inferences of motion could be challenged to some degree, the issue of neotectonics of the interior remains unresolved. In
fact it is the continuing uncertainty about what is really going up and down in many parts of the interior that constitutes
perhaps the dominant problem of active intraplate tectonics.
DISCUSSION
Although intraplate motions are remote almost by definition from plate boundaries, it does not necessarily follow that
they are unrelated to plate-boundary forces. The concept that lithospheric plates are rigid is a first-order treatment at best,
and the geologic record is replete with evidence that interiors respond and deform to the actions at their edges. The tectonic
collage that is now southeast Asia, formed by the collision of the Indian subcontinent into the Asian underbelly, is elegant
proof that plate-boundary forces exert an influence hundreds of kilometers into the interior (e.g., Molnar and Tapponnier,
1978).
Some of the intraplate stress patterns mapped by Zoback and Zoback (1980) for the United States (Figure 2.11)
suggest affinities with activity at boundaries of the North American plate. The extensional stresses of the Basin and Range,
for example, have been interpreted as distributed shear from the San Andreas Fault system (Atwater, 1970). East-west
compression of the eastern United States has been argued to reflect plate-driving forces (Sbar and Sykes, 1973), although
other explanations have also been discussed (Zoback and Zoback, 1980, 1981). Yet neither intraplate stress patterns nor
seismicity are by any means simple, and the link, if any, to distant plate boundaries is more often obscure than not.
One possible reason for complexity in intraplate tectonics is reactivation, i.e., the concept that present tectonics is
guided by crustal heterogeneities formed during much earlier times. Woollard's (1958) appeal to reactivation of older
geologic structures as an explanation of eastern United States seismicity has been echoed in various guises ever since.
Sykes (1978) surveyed an array of evidence suggesting that intraplate neotectonics is influenced by structures inherited from
earlier times, when plate boundaries may have been more directly involved (Figure 2.12). For example, Zoback et al.
(1980) reported seismic reflection data that documents continued Cenozoic motion on Cretaceous faults in the Mississippi
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Valley region. Ancient crustal flaws may well serve to guide and focus plate-boundary forces in locally diverse, perhaps
destructive ways, although the mechanics of this process are not completely understood (e.g., Zoback et al., 1980).
However, reactivation is at best only part of the picture for active tectonics in intraplate regions. Postglacial rebound is
another, and hot spots are undoubtedly a
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 40
third. None of these, however, seems to explain all the observations, such as the geodetic indications of contemporary
intraplate ups and downs or geologic structures like the Michigan Basin. Although some of the geodetic evidence may be
open to doubt, the geologic record is unequivocal. Thus the question remains as to whether there exist heretofore
unrecognized mechanisms of intraplate deformation. Menard (1973), for example, postulated the existence of
asthenospheric bumps to explain anomalous ocean-floor bathymetry. Jacoby (1972) looked to densification of the mantle
due to magma separation as a possible means of inducing vertical motion by increasing continental buoyancy. McKenzie
(1984) considered the intrusion of magma into the lower crust as another means of driving vertical motion. These and other
possibilities deserve critical consideration and testing with observations.
One of the problems with geodetic indications of vertical movement within plates has to do with their apparent rates,
typically on the order of a few millimeters per year (Figures 2.9 and 2.10). Although these would seem to be minute
motions, they are extremely large from the geologic perspective. One millimeter per year corresponds to 1 km every million
years. For comparison, rates of contemporary erosion in intraplate areas are usually estimated to be at least an order of
magnitude less (Schumm, 1963). If such rates were sustained, we should expect imposing mountain ranges to be thrown up
within relatively short periods, geologically speaking. That we do not see such topography leads to the argument that these
motions are oscillatory or episodic, so that there is no net accumulation of relief. In some respects, such an explanation
seems a bit ad hoc, and skeptics might infer that the inconsistency between some geodetically measured rates and the more
subdued geologic record is further reason to question the accuracy of the former. However, it should be remembered that
rates of vertical motion on the order of a few millimeters per year are much smaller that the commonly accepted rates of a
few centimeters per year for the hori
FIGURE 2.11 State of stress in the United States (Zoback and Zoback, 1980).
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 41
zontal motions associated with plate tectonics (Minster and Jordan, 1978). Moreover, the geologic record is full of cyclicity
(Vail et al., 1977).
FIGURE 2.12 Intraplate tectonics may be influenced by inherited tectonic structures. In this example, relict transform faults
left behind from the opening of the Atlantic may serve as weaknesses that concentrate modern intraplate stresses, thus
constituting potential foci of seismic activity (Sykes, 1978).
SOCIAL IMPACT
The social ramifications of contemporary intraplate deformations are various. Some are relatively obvious: co-seismic
deformations can damage nearby structures and disrupt or sever support services such as water or communication lines.
Other types of deformation may have more subtle impact. The apparently slow vertical motions in the stable interior may
yet be significant in planning long-term engineering projects. For example, a differential rate of only a centimeter per year
will accumulate to a meter in a century. In a coastal region, a meter change in average elevation can translate into major
shifts in effective shoreline positions, positions that have fundamental economic and legal significance (Bossler, 1984).
Intraplate deformation can also have indirect significance. For example, movements that precede and are related to
earthquakes clearly have value in prediction. Generally speaking, to the extent that intraplate motions provide clues for our
understanding of the state and evolution of stress in plate interiors, they are potentially critical guides for mitigating hazards
from more obvious phenomena such as earthquakes and volcanoes.
NEEDS AND TRENDS
Current understanding of the active tectonics in intraplate regions is mixed. On the one hand, broad concepts have
been developed for areas like Hawaii (hot spots), Scandinavia (postglacial rebound), the Basin and Range of the western
United States (distributed shear), and southeast Asia (India as a rigid indentor) that provide useful frameworks for
monitoring, relating, and mitigating hazards from specific phenomena like earthquakes or volcanoes. Yet observations from
other areas, such as the eastern United States, remain difficult to relate to any encompassing tectonic theory.
Although much has been learned about intraplate phenomena, basic questions remain. How are stresses in the plate
interior related to forces at plate boundaries? To what extent are contemporary tectonics influenced by pre-existing
structures? How accurate are the geodetic measurements that are often our primary source of information on contemporary
deformations in such areas? How do we recognize the influence of subtle levels of active tectonics in the geologic
(geomorphic) record? What are the best observational strategies for monitoring motions in areas of varying degrees of
tectonic activity? What is an appropriate level of effort for tectonic investigations in intraplate areas in relation to the more
active interplate zones?
It is easy to become complacent on the issue of intraplate tectonics. After all, damaging earthquakes are usually few
and far between, and the secular motions seem too slow to warrant much concern, even if they prove to be real and not
artifacts of measurement error. However, the relatively low frequency with which intraplate events seem to affect our lives
does not alter the fact that they can have and will continue to have major economic and social impact. There is more than
sufficient reason to justify efforts to fill our considerable gaps in understanding intraplate motions.
Future progress in studying intraplate tectonics requires many things. Many areas of the United States lack any
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geodetic resurveys with which to estimate contemporary deformation. This is especially true of horizontal measurements
outside the well-known seismic zones of the western United States. Issues of accuracy in geodetic measurements must be
satisfactorily resolved. Monitor
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EPEIROGENIC AND INTRAPLATE MOVEMENTS 42
ing programs that most effectively address issues of contemporary dynamics must be designed and funded at an adequate
level. Furthermore, it must be recognized that these monitoring programs must be long term. New technologies must be
brought to bear and integrated with conventional techniques. And certainly more research is needed to integrate and cross-
calibrate seismologic, geodetic, and geomorphic measures of active tectonics to broaden our base of observations.
In many respects these demands are being addressed. For example, the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Geodetic Survey (NGS), and others have been developing and/or
applying new techniques such as very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI), satellite laser ranging (SLR), and the Global
Positioning System (GPS) to monitoring crustal deformations (e.g., Coates et al., 1985). The NGS has made an important
effort to develop new corrections for geodetic leveling (e.g., Holdahl, 1981), and research has become much more
meticulous as far as evaluating the accuracy of measurements (Jackson et al., 1980). Yet much remains to be done. Funding
agencies and investigators alike must realize that proper resolution of critical issues concerning active tectonics of plate
interiors will require a long-term commitment because of the very nature of the processes involved.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Contribution No. 6 from the Institute for the Study of the Continents.
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 45
3
Evaluation of Active Faulting and Associated Hazards
D.BURTON SLEMMONS and CRAIG M.DEPOLO
University of Nevada, Reno
ABSTRACT
Active faulting is a geologic hazard with a causative relation to earthquakes and associated strong ground motion, surface
faulting, tectonic deformation, landslides and rockfalls, liquefaction, tsunamis, and seiches. Plate-tectonic models for the
Earth's crust show that most active faults occur near plate boundaries, and research has been concentrated in interplate regions.
Intraplate regions have less fault activity and represent a potential hazard that only recently has been recognized. Faults are
delineated by geologic, remote-sensing, seismic reflection, gravity, magnetic, and trenching methods. Fault activity is assessed
using geologic, geomorphic, geodetic, and seismologic data. Correlations of fault length, displacement, and area with
earthquake magnitude are utilized to assess earthquake hazards of faults and form the principal data for risk analysis.
Estimation of earthquake recurrence rates and characterization of fault behavior provide additional input data for risk analysis.
Recent attention has been focused on the character of subduction in the northwestern United States. An absence of large
seismic events along this convergent zone has led to the speculation that the zone is aseismic. Recent studies indicate,
however, that if this is true, this zone may be unique when compared with other subduction zones of the world. Ongoing
studies are trying to determine if this region has had large earthquakes in the geologic past. The recent discovery of the active
geomorphic features along the Meers Fault in Oklahoma has prompted studies of this and adjoining regions.
INTRODUCTION
The assessment of earthquake hazards involves consideration of earthquake magnitude, intensity, frequency, recency
of the last event, probability of occurrence, and human experience and values.
The appraisal of earthquake potential is feasible because historical data show a good correlation between earthquake
size and the fault rupture parameters of length, maximum displacement, and fault rupture area. Most earthquakes have
proportional tectonic effects, with earthquakes of below magnitude 6 having fault ruptures of up to 10-km length and a few
centimeters maximum displacement, but magnitude 8+ earthquakes have up to 400-km length and 10 m of displacement.
This relation also can be used for paleoseismicity evaluations to infer from prehistorical evidence the potential size of
future activity on the same fault segments.
The historical record of worldwide earthquakes
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 46
shows an excellent spatial correlation with plate-tectonic movements. Most of the historical or geologically young fault
ruptures are located on or near boundaries between plates and microplates.
Importance to Society
Most evaluations of active faults are conducted at or near plate boundaries, where consideration of design, siting,
zoning, communication, and response to earthquake hazards is necessary for all types of major engineering structures in
order to reduce potential loss of life, injury, or property damage. The seismic motion or deformation effects on facilities
such as nuclear generators, dams, communication centers, and other lifelines is critical because of great potential harm to
society.
The importance of earthquake evaluation in intraplate regions has been recognized recently. In the intraplate region
east of the Rocky Mountains, earthquakes affect larger areas than in the western United States. Although intraplate
earthquakes are more infrequent and unexpected, the impact of earthquakes on society can be greater than is generally
perceived because of the large affected areas and greater population density in the eastern United States.
Difficulties in Making Evaluations
The evaluation of faults, particularly assessment of their seismic potential, is often difficult because of the following
factors: poor conditions of surface exposure (concealment by bodies of water or young sediments); plastic deformation of
near-surface materials; transitional or branching rupture character; detachment, décollement, or listric faulting of shallow
materials; conflicting or incomplete geologic, seismologic, or geophysical observations; incomplete bases for analysis; and
basic assumptions about activity or nonactivity of faults. These factors have led to smaller, shorter, more discontinuous
expression of surface faulting parameters in almost one-fourth of the historical examples of surface faulting in North
America.
Approach for Earthquake Evaluation
Two approaches for earthquake-hazard assessment have been used in the United States. The western United States is
dominated by active-tectonic processes and many active faults. Those faults with proper orientations or connections to plate
boundaries may be active and can be evaluated by methods that are discussed in this paper. Faults within this region are
commonly assumed to be active unless there are contrary data.
In the central and eastern United States—in intraplate regions east of the Rocky Mountains—most faults are inactive
and rarely have the potential for being sources of damaging and hazardous earthquakes. Earthquakes of these zones may
not show characteristics typical of active faults, with lower magnitudes (commonly less than 5.75 or 6), and may be
assumed to have random or “floating” epicenters within a province. Man's structures may need to be designed
conservatively for the largest historical earthquake of the region or province or may be designed conservatively for a higher
magnitude or intensity. Most faults for such regions are commonly assumed, or may appear to be inactive, although the
Meers Fault (Oklahoma) and the scarp at Reelfoot Lake (near New Madrid, Missouri) suggest that some faults of central
United States may be active, and deterministic assessments should be used.
Many different disciplines are used for studying active faults. Some of these are shown in Figure 3.1 in a time
perspective.
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FIGURE 3.1 Time relations of different disciplines associated with active faulting. (From Kasahara, 1981.)
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 47
SEISMOGENIC MODEL
Earthquakes are generally assumed to be elastic waves radiating out from a rupture in the Earth that slips suddenly and
generally in a brittle manner. Most evaluations of the potential for surface faulting and earthquakes assume that earthquakes
of above magnitude MS=6 are by brittle failure and are represented by fault-rupture parameters. This simple model is
effective for many examples of surface faulting, particularly for faults with moderate to steep dips and with good surface
exposure. The release of energy is a function of fault rupture parameters and is also affected by the elastic rebound of the
strained volume of rock, associated folding (King and Stein, 1983; Hill, 1984; Molinari, 1984), detachment faulting
(Hardyman, 1978; Berberian, 1982), fault type and attitude (low-angle thrust faults), and surface exposure.
HAZARDS RELATED TO FAULTS
Earthquake and Ground Motion
Perhaps the best-known hazards of active faulting are the destructive effects of earthquake shaking, often called
“strong ground motion.” Sudden movement along a fault or fault zone radiates elastic waves that are generally strongest
near the causative fault and taper off or attenuate away from the fault. Strong ground motion is the single largest natural
factor in causing earthquake damage, including loss of life and property, failure of structures, disruption of utilities, and
numerous secondary effects such as landsliding and liquefaction.
The characteristics and intensity of strong ground motion at different sites usually varies with a number of factors,
including earthquake size, attentuation, and local ground response. Variation of strong ground motion with distance from a
causative fault has been one of the most discussed factors, based on many analyses of strong-motion records from
historical earthquakes and various theoretical considerations. Recent studies by McGarr (1984) show that the intensity of
strong ground motion may vary with the type of motion along a fault (e.g., reverse motion versus normal motion). Details
of the geometry of fault zones can have a large influence on strong ground motion. Local areas where the fault is not so free
to slide concentrate stress (Bakun et al., 1980, 1984; Aki, 1984); when these places are broken and the stress is released a
large amount of high-frequency energy is generated resulting in high-frequency ground motion.
Source directivity, a phenomenon involving the propagating fault rupture and its relationship with the elastic waves
being radiated, can have a pronounced effect on the frequency and amplitudes of the radiating waves and should be
addressed for sites near the causative fault (Singh, 1981). Other factors such as the radiated wave's travel path
characteristics (Singh, 1981), topographic effects at a site (Davis and West, 1973), and site materials and geology (Rogers
et al., 1983) can also affect strong ground motion. Many siting and design studies use a sophisticated approach to strong
ground motion estimation involving the combined expertise of the seismologist, the geologist, and the engineer for
deterministic and probabilistic studies.
The effect of strong ground motion is incorporated into building codes and may influence zoning (Berg, 1983).
Geotechnical studies of soils as well as geologic and seismologic fault studies are vital to this ground motion potential
assessment.
Surface Rupture
One of the most direct hazards (effects) of active faulting is displacement or offset at the foundation of a structure
(Swiger, 1978). Ruptures can occur suddenly during earthquakes or slowly or gradually by creep. Three main types of fault
movements associated with a faulting event are primary, secondary, and sympathetic movements. A primary rupture occurs
along the main fault responsible for the earthquake and can be estimated from observations and regression analyses
(Slemmons, 1982b; Bonilla et al., 1984) of historical earthquakes and fault displacement. These are commonly based on
rupture length or maximum displacement; actual observed effects can be reduced by drag and distributed rupture, plastic
failure, detachment, and other causes.
The construction of some brittle structures may not tolerate even small fault rupturing. The proposed Auburn Dam in
California was in advanced stages of site preparation when the possibility of fault displacement of about 15 cm in the
foundation was estimated by Woodward-Clyde Consultants (1977). The consultants and a special review panel essentially
concurred that, although the recurrence interval was very long, the maximum expected ground displacement of about 15 cm
could occur with an associated earthquake of magnitude 6.5. The concrete double arch dam could not accommodate this
large a foundation displacement, and the proposed dam was abandoned as inappropriate for the site even though $200
million was spent for site preparation.
Secondary ruptures are those that occur along branch faults and other faults subordinate to the principal fault trace.
These faults locally accommodate deformation
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 48
from the main fault and generally have lesser displacements. Bonilla (1970) showed that secondary rupture displacements
decrease with increasing distance from the fault.
Sympathetic offsets occur when strain release along the main fault or vibratory ground motion disturbs the state of
stress of another fault, causing it to undergo displacement. During the 1968 Borrego Mountain earthquake, sympathetic
displacement occurred on three faults, the Imperial, Superstition Hills, and San Andreas. Investigations by Allen et al.
(1972) reported sympathetic offsets of 1- to 2.5-cm right-lateral displacement and that the longest of these ruptures was 30
km long and 50 km from the epicenter.
Surface displacement can occur gradually in areas of tectonic creep and nontectonic fluid withdrawal. In California,
several faults are undergoing tectonic creep, with a maximum reported creep of 3.2 cm/yr along the San Andreas Fault in
San Benito County (Burford and Harsh, 1980).
Tectonic Deformation
Tectonic deformation refers to areal or regional deformation that may or may not be associated with moderate or large
earthquakes. Dramatic effects of tectonic deformation have been noted by observing the vertical displacement and tilting of
shorelines during the 1964 Alaskan earthquake, which shows evidence of land movement relative to sea level. An area of
south central Alaska, of probably over 110,000 mi2 of land and sea bottom, was affected by warping, horizontal distortion,
and faulting (Plafker, 1972). The upper growth limit of barnacles showed a maximum of 37.8 feet of vertical displacement
when the pre-earthquake and post-earthquake shorelines at Montague Island were compared (Plafker, 1972). In the Kodiak
Islands, a maximum subsidence of 6.3 feet of the shoreline was recorded (Plafker, 1972). Plafker commented, “Regional
uplift and subsidence occurred mainly in two nearly parallel elongate zones, together about 600 miles long and as much as
250 miles wide, that lie along the continental margin.” Earth movements, detected by geodetic measurements, were
recorded after the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake (ML=6.5). These measurements showed the mountains to the
northeast of the causative fault shifted upward as much as 2 m and horizontally as much as 2 m (Savage et al., 1975).
Folds and large crustal uplifts and tilts have generally been assumed to be aseismic and to represent gradual plastic
failure. Recent activity at Coalinga, California, has shown that this, however, is not always the case. The damaging 1983
Coalinga earthquake (MS=6.6) occurred in an area where active faults and large-magnitude earthquakes were previously
unrecognized. Post-earthquake investigations concluded that no surficial faulting accompanied the earthquake (Clark et al.,
1984). Studies by King and Stein (1983) showed that uplifted Holocene terraces on the main fold associated with the
earthquake could be identified and are consistent with the regional deformation accompanying the earthquake (Stein,
1983). Other earthquakes that were associated with folding and compressional regimes are the 1978 Tabas-e-Golshan, Iran,
earthquake (MS= 7.5) and the 1980 El Asnam, Algeria, earthquake (MS= 7.25).
The relationships recognized at Coalinga have led to a re-examination of major folds of the California Coast and
Transverse Ranges and adjustment of seismic design of nearby major engineering structures. Yeats (1982) suggested that
surface faults along anticlines may be weakly seismic or low-shake faults. These faults, also called flexural-slip faults, are
thought to be related to the folding structure, with displacement occurring along bedding planes of the units being folded
(see Yeats, Chapter 4, this volume). Hill (1984) suggested that some of the Coalinga earthquakes may be related to
flexural-slip events. Late Quaternary fault scarps are associated with the Toppenish anticline of the Yakima fold belt in
Washington (Campbell and Bentley, 1981), but whether these are seismogenic has not been resolved.
Criteria for discriminating between seismogenic and aseismic geologic structures have yet to be developed for
evaluating folds or areas actively undergoing tectonic deformation. Resolution of these issues is important for seismic
evaluation of many engineering structures in areas with Late Cenozoic folding. Tectonic tilting or warping must also be
considered for level or gradient-sensitive structures, such as aqueducts in Owens Valley and also on the western edge of the
San Joaquin Valley.
Secondary Effects
Secondary effects associated with earthquakes include landslides and rockfalls, liquefaction, seiches, and tsunamis.
These effects can cause severe and widespread damage; although the effects may be severest in the epicentral region, they
may extend out to distances of as much as 1000 km. Landslides are often induced by earthquake shaking. The scale of these
features can vary from slides a few meters long to slides kilometers in length. During the 1976 Guatemalan earthquake (MS=
7.5) over 10,000 landslides were generated in an area of 16,000 km2 (Harp et al., 1981). One of the most notable slides
occurred in Peru in 1970, where a large, seismi
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 49
cally induced landslide originating 130 km from the earthquake claimed at least 18,000 and possibly as many as 25,000
lives (Gere and Shah, 1984). Splashes or waves caused by landslides may also have extensive effects; the 1958 earthquake
induced a landslide into Lituya Bay, which caused a giant wave reaching 1720 ft above sea level (Miller, 1960).
Liquefaction is a phenomenon in which near-surface water-saturated sediments are shaken, lowering their rigid
strength and behaving as a semiliquid material. Structures such as buildings and pipelines built on ground that liquifies can
tilt or sink or may be moved as the ground flows. This phenomenon has been noted in many earthquakes including classic
effects of large apartment houses tilting in Niigata, Japan, during the June 1964 earthquake and spectacular effects during
the March 1964 earthquake at Turnagain Heights and Valdez Harbor, Alaska. Liquefaction effects can be predicted in a
gross way using simple linear diagrams (Youd, 1978) or more precisely with sophisticated computer models for specific
sites (Youd et al., 1978).
A seiche is a wave set up in a body of water in response to earthquake waves and also can occur great distances from
the earthquake source. The danger of seiche is temporary flooding of areas near lakes and reservoirs and overtopping of
dams. During the 1954 Dixie Valley-Fairview Park, Nevada, earthquakes, a seiche was set up in a covered water reservoir
in Sacramento, California, 300 km away, damaging support pillars, concrete walls, and gunite panels (Steinbugge and
Moran, 1957).
Large ocean waves created by uplift or downdropping of the seafloor during an earthquake are called tsunamis.
Tsunamis can move hundreds of kilometers per hour and destroy facilities and structures along the coast, thousands of
kilometers from the earthquake. Warnings are issued when there is a large earthquake in oceanic areas, which allows
coastal residents to go to safety on higher ground until the tsunami danger has passed.
Detailed observations and investigations of secondary effects have led to the understanding, prediction, and mitigation
of these effects in many areas. Today, secondary effects can often be identified and risks assessed thanks to geologic,
geophysical, and engineering laboratory and field studies.
TECTONIC SETTING
Plate-Tectonic Relationships
Plate-tectonic concepts are accepted by most earth scientists as a working model of the crustal behavior of the Earth.
This model suggests that the Earth's surface is composed of several large plates and numerous smaller plates that are slowly
moving and rotating with respect to each other. Since this behavior is dynamic, faulting, earthquake activity, and rates of
fault slip and folding are closely related to the rate of movement between plates. Most seismic activity occurs along plate
boundaries, areas known as interplate areas. Intraplate areas are areas within plates and have less seismic activity and lower
rates of tectonic activity than interplate areas. Closer inspection of interplate regions reveals smaller “microplate” tectonic
domains characterized by a particular faulting style, such as the Basin and Range province in the western United States.
Interplate Regions
These regions have many active faults with a potential for future displacements and associated earthquake activity.
The methods described in this chapter are especially appropriate for many faults in these regions. There is a great range in
rates of fault activity with recurrence intervals that range from decades to hundreds of thousand years. Additionally, the
plate and microplate boundaries vary from sharp and narrow to broad (“soft”) zones that may extend hundreds to thousands
of kilometers from the main boundary, including most of the western United States, although there are “islands” of inactive
subplates within this region and variations in rate of activity within active provinces. Wallace and Whitney (1984)
described an example of variable rates of tectonic activity within the Great Basin province. Complete evaluations of a fault
are needed to assess the following characteristics: seismogenic character, segmentation, recurrence interval and slip rate,
recency of fault activity, and the relation to the site or area being evaluated.
The maximum magnitude of earthquakes varies with seismotectonic province or fault and includes a range in values
for each type of plate boundary. The maximum historical values include Mw (moment magnitude) values of over 9 for some
subduction zones, MS (surface wave) magnitudes of up to about 8.3 for strike-slip faults, and MS magnitudes of up to about
7.5 or 8 for extensional zones.
Intraplate Regions
Seismic hazard evaluation of intraplate regions has evolved rapidly in the last few years, although processes will
become more refined and better understood. Rates of activity are generally orders of magnitude lower within intraplate
areas as compared with interplate areas. The low rates of faulting and warping and sub
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 50
dued geomorphic expression of deformation may be due to broad basinal or domal uplift. These lower tectonic rates are
generally accompanied by less earthquake activity than for interplate regions. In general this has caused more focus and
awareness of earthquake hazard in interplate regions and less concern in the intraplate regions. An excellent summary of
intraplate seismicity (and other intraplate tectonism) is given by Sykes (1978), who noted that intraplate seismicity appears
to be localized along pre-existing zones of crustal weakness. Seismicity in the eastern United States within the North
American plate exemplifies this concept.
Seismic activity in the New Madrid area, where the large earthquakes of 1811 and 1812 occurred, appears to be
localized along a pre-existing rift structure in the continent (Sykes, 1978). Although at the time the rift was formed the
continent was under extension in that region, recent activity appears to be related to compression. This change in stress
regime shows how a pre-existing structure (e.g., rift) can be reactivated in later, different strain episodes. The crustal
weakness appears to be the locus of earthquake-related strain release. The 1886 Charleston earthquake was located in a
Paleozoic orogenic belt, an inactive or relic interplate region on the eastern edge of the continent. Low seismicity and cover
of young sediments has not allowed the tectonics and source zones of the Charleston earthquake to be understood as well as
in the New Madrid area.
The Meers Fault of Oklahoma is another example of reactivation of an ancient geologic structure. The Meers Fault, a
segment of the Frontal Fault zone, was formed about 500 m.y. ago as part of the southern Oklahoma rift. During a later
orogeny it underwent extensive compressional (reverse) as well as left-lateral displacement. Studies of the Meers Fault show
that the fault is currently active and has a dominant lateral component (Ramelli and Slemmons, 1985; Slemmons et al.,
1985).
The potential size of intraplate earthquakes, although they are infrequent, is great. The New Madrid, Missouri,
earthquakes of 1811 and 1812 are estimated to have MS magnitudes of over 8; the Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake
of 1886 was about MS=7. The recently discovered Meers Fault has characteristic features that suggest MS=6.5 to 7.5
earthquakes in the late Quaternary (Slemmons et al., 1985).
IDENTIFICATION AND DELINEATION OF ACTIVE FAULTS
Geologic Methods
Many active faults are poorly delineated on most pre-1950 geologic, structural, or tectonic maps. These commonly
emphasize ancient and inactive tectonic features rather than neotectonic structures. Recognition and detailed mapping of
historical and Quaternary faults in many zones of neotectonic activity, particularly at or near plate boundaries, have led to
recent improvements in the delineation of active faults. In addition, the possible reactivation of intraplate faults such as the
Meers Fault has emphasized the need to re-examine other faults and folds in central and eastern United States.
Remote-Sensing Methods
Remote-sensing methods can be effective in detecting, delineating, and describing the character of active faults and
neotectonic features. The most effective methods accentuate fault scarps by employing imaging techniques using special
illumination angles, wavelengths, or stereographic effects. Some of the methods for earthquake-hazard analysis are
summarized by Glass and Slemmons (1978), but newer equipment and methods and rapid developments in analytical
techniques require continued adaptation of many of these concepts. Examples of instrumental and structural analysis are in
Williams (1983) in the section on geological applications, and for applications in nuclear power-plant site investigations in
McEldowney and Pascucci (1979).
Low Sun angle and radar imagery methods are especially effective in detecting and delineating active faults and folds.
Special low-Sun angle photography of faults can have the advantages of relatively low cost and appropriate scale and
optimum shadowing or highlighting of scarps by selection of solar azimuth and altitude. Since this is the most effective
single method of assessment of active faults, it is one of the most widely used methods for aerial photography and
reconnaissance (Glass and Slemmons, 1978). Radar imagery of some areas is available at much higher cost and on smaller
scales, may have the advantages of some ground penetration in arid regions, and can be taken at any azimuth, time of day
or night, and in cloud or fog cover.
Recent studies using ground penetrating radar for fault trace identification have been very successful. Black et al.
(1983) studied an area along the San Andreas Fault zone that has been extensively trenched and found good correlation of
the ground penetrating radar records and the trench logs. Bilham and Seeber (1985) used subsurface radar profiling to
detect colluvial wedges associated with former movements along the Lost River Fault and wide zones of faulting along the
San Andreas Fault system. As this method is refined it will become an even more powerful method of fault detection and
delineation.
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 51
Geophysical Methods
Observations of seismicity can sometimes help to delineate active faults. Persistent alignments of seismicity, especially
at the ends of identified faults, can occasionally be considered seismic sources or seismogenic extensions of a fault. Many
active faults have associated seismicity, including the Calaveras, Hayward, and central San Andreas Fault zones of central
California, which, however, may only indicate the creeping segments of these faults. Other sections of the San Andreas
Fault system that are not currently creeping are not clearly delineated by small earthquakes. Areas of relatively high
seismicity may warrant examination for active faults.
In the eastern United States, alignments of high seismicity such as near New Madrid are associated active subsurface
faults. Other major basement faults are associated with seismicity and may be active (Gordon, 1985); these also could be
examined.
Seismic reflection techniques can help to delineate subsurface faults in sedimentary basins, both on land and beneath
lakes and oceans. These techniques are used for recent fault detection and delineation studies, particularly in offshore
California (Greene et al., 1973) and along the central California coastal margin near the Hosgri Fault (Crouch et al., 1984)
near Point Conception (Pipkin and Ploessel, 1985), and in the offshore zone of deformation between the Inglewood Fault
and Rose Canyon Fault (San Diego). Seismic reflection profiling by the Consortium for Continental Reflection Profiling
(COCORP) has revealed the down-dip nature of many faults and a major detachment surface under the Sevier Desert of
Utah (Allmendinger et al., 1983).
Gravity methods are most effective for studying fault zones where a strong density contrast exists between materials
on either side of the fault. This situation occurs along faults where basement rocks are displaced against sediments or fault
offsets in basins where the thickness of sediment differs across the fault. These methods are especially effective for regions
of extensional faulting. Zoback (1983) used gravity techniques to delineate the geometry of range bounding normal faults in
the Basin and Range province along the Wasatch Fault zone in Utah.
Application of surface magnetic and aeromagnetic survey methods for evaluation of active faults is discussed by Cluff
et al. (1972), Krinitzsky (1974), and Sherard et al. (1974). These methods can be used to detect and delineate faults
concealed by recent sediments and provide a relatively inexpensive method of contouring the thickness of basin fill. Smith
(1967) located intra-basin, largely concealed, major fault grabens within the Dixie Valley graben using aeromagnetic
methods. Some of these graben boundary faults were also accurately delineated by the faulting of the 1954 Dixie Valley
earthquake. Smith provided a detailed outline for applying magnetic methods to the Basin and Range province with
normal- and oblique-slip faults.
Bailey (1974) used a magnetometer to determine the surface fault location of the Chabot Fault, California, where
anomalous drops in magnetism suggested locations of fracturing and subsequent leaching related to faulting. The eastern
limit of the Chabot Fault zone was identified so that buildings could be sited to avoid potential surface rupture. Similar
applications may be useful in defining active faults that are concealed by young alluvium or bodies of water.
Exploratory Methods
Exploratory methods for fault assessment advocated by Louderback (1950) were little used until the late 1960s when
they assumed an important role in fault evaluations to assess such features as for activity, age dating, paleorupture and
liquefaction events, slip direction, recurrence intervals, and slip rates. An adequate exploratory trenching and borehole
program is critical in evaluation of active faults and is a major part of both domestic and foreign assessments. Specific
applications to fault assessment are included in Taylor and Cluff (1973). The use of trenching as an exploratory method for
nuclear power plant siting is discussed in Hatheway and Leighton (1979).
DETERMINATION OF FAULT ACTIVITY
Definition of Activity
Before 1950, most geologists did not distinguish between inactive faults and those with a potential for renewed
displacements and associated earthquake activity, yet this is a critical part of man's planning and design. Slemmons (1982a)
listed over 30 definitions for “active” or “capable” faults of which only three were made before 1950. No definition for
active faults is universally accepted, although two elements are present in most definitions: (1) the potential or probability
of future displacements in the present tectonic setting and (2) the time of most recent displacement (e.g., historical,
Holocene, Quaternary, or “in the present seismotectonic regime”). The first element, potential, is critical to all assessments
for larger earthquakes; the second, recency, relates indirectly to rate of activity, which provides a more quantitative measure
of degree of fault activity. Fault activity can also be classified by fault slip rate. Figure 3.2 shows the general relationships
between
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 52
three factors: (1) the time since the last event or recurrence interval, (2) the surface wave magnitude, and (3) fault slip rate.
This figure also shows the general geomorphic expression for each interval of fault slip rates, although such factors as
climate, time since the last event, variations in fault slip rate, or noncharacteristic activity can affect the landforms. Cluff
and Cluff (1984) noted that the common current use of “active” and “inactive” can be a scientific oversimplification that
may lead to improper siting or design of engineered structures. Use of quantitative measures for degree of activity, such as
fault slip rate and recurrence interval with probabilities and variance, can lead to deterministic values providing meaningful
numbers for analysis by probabilistic methods.
Geologic Indicators
One of the most convincing arguments or evidence of fault activity is the cross-cutting or non-cross-cutting
relationship with a datable unit. If Holocene activity is the criterion for activity, then a Holocene age unit crossing the fault
could be an ideal location for a trench site. If the unit is offset, then the age of the unit and the amount of offset can be used
to estimate a slip rate and a recurrence interval if the nature of characteristic earthquake is known. A wide variety of types
of Holocene deposits have been used for evaluation of fault activity, most commonly alluvial and volcanic deposits.
Deposits are dated by carbon-14 radiometric methods, tephrochronology, soil development, fossil stratigraphy, and many
other techniques. Pierce (Chapter 13, this volume) presents a good summary and review of Quaternary dating methods.
Exposures of faulted units may be found in stream cuts and landslide scars or in road cuts or other man-made excavations.
To prove whether a fault or strand of a fault system is active, a trench may be dug at the proposed site and the geologic
units and soils inspected for faults. If no demonstrated fault activity has taken place in these geologic units within the
defined “active” fault period, the proposed structure can be considered reasonably safe from damage from surface faulting.
The structural aspects of young geologic units adjacent to faults may also provide information about activity of a fault.
Adjacent units may be brecciated and shattered, have open fissures, be tilted or warped, or have secondary effects of
faulting and liquefaction effects (e.g., sand boils and sand dikes). In a detailed study of a fault, the youthful geologic units
should be described, delineated, and inspected for evidence of young faulting.
Geomorphic Indicators
The freshness of appearance and type of geomorphic expression of faults is related to the age of faulting (Matsuda,
1975; Slemmons, 1977, 1982a; Wallace, 1977, 1978). Geomorphic investigations into faulting are relatively easy and can
yield considerable information. Many landforms such as depressions and sag ponds, open rifts, and prominent high-angle
scarps suggest youthfulness and further help to identify the active traces or strands of faults zones (Figure 3.3).
A geomorphic investigation begins with examination of aerial photographs or an aerial reconnaissance. Overview of
the geomorphology allows delineation of key lo
FIGURE 3.2 Relation between time or recurrence interval between earthquakes, earthquake magnitude, and slip rate across the
fault zone. This chart assumes that most of the energy is released by seismogenic rather than aseismic activity and that the
average displacement is one half the maximum. [Modified from Matsuda (1975) and Slemmons (1977).]
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cations for ground investigations. Low-Sun-angle techniques for reconnaissance or photography have been extremely
useful in detecting subtle geomorphic features that would have otherwise been missed (Glass and Slemmons, 1978), such
as in cities where geomorphic expression of scarps may have been smoothed out or altered, but general elevation
differences still exist.
FIGURE 3.3 Geomorphic features related to active faulting.
Key areas found through geomorphic investigation are often used as sites for further geologic investigations as
exploratory trenching. Geomorphic investigations form a large part of the data base used in paleoseismic investigations.
Freshness and continuity of geomorphic expression in space strongly suggest a surface rupture created during one event or
over multiple events closely spaced in time.
Recently there have been numerous efforts to quantify the degree of degradation of fault scarps relative to age (see
Chapters 7, 8, and 12, this volume).
Geodetic Indicators
Recognition of activity along some faults is possible by repeated geodetic surveys. Geodetic methods are capable of
detecting and measuring tectonic strain of regions or across active faults. Reduction of the geodetic data permits
determination of rate and direction of ground movement. The data provide another measure of fault displacement, both
seismic or aseismic, and can assist in locating active branch faults or focus on areas of current movement within complex
zones of faulting. Sylvester (Chapter 11, this volume) presents several methods of near-field geodetics including level
lines, alignment surveys, trilateration, triangulation, and creepmeters. Regional geodetic leveling and trilateration surveys
are made to monitor regional strain accumulation and release (Prescott et al., 1979; Vanicek et al., 1980).
Advances using satellite geodesy, e.g., the Navstar Global Positioning System (GPS), offer surveying techniques with a
precision superior to classic surveying at one-twentieth the cost (Kerr, 1985).
Seismologic Indicators
Detailed studies of earthquake epicentral and hypocentral distributions of many fault zones can indicate the activity,
continuity, location, dip and strike, seismogenic depth, and possible stress regime of the fault zone. However, this is often a
difficult task. The quality of seismic data must be scrutinized and understood. The best-quality data come from dense
seismometer networks that are limited to a few areas and are often temporary. Quarry blasts and possible geothermal,
volcanic, and reservoir-induced seismicity must be separated from fault-related seismicity and can be analyzed as an
additional seismic hazard. The remainder may be a well-defined zone of activity or a diffuse pattern of distributed activity.
Well-defined zones of activity are common in aftershock areas and along creeping sections of faults. Diffuse patterns are
harder to interpret but at least indicate that some strain is taking place in the area. A diffuse pattern of historical
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EVALUATION OF ACTIVE FAULTING AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS 54
seismicity suggests a maximum historic earthquake (for the area including the fault) and warrants further investigation of
faulting in the area.
Earthquake activity along a fault zone clearly indicates that the fault zone is active at least at seismogenic depths.
However, the type of activity needs to be evaluated to assess the hazard and risk. A fault that slips aseismically represents a
different type of risk than a fault that slips with large rupture events. Adjoining sections of the same fault may behave
differently and, for example, the San Andreas Fault between Parkfield and San Juan Bautista appears to be characterized by
creep and frequent lower magnitude (less than 6) earthquakes, whereas the adjoining section to the south has abrupt brittle
failures, about 150-yr recurrence intervals, and up to magnitude 8.3 earthquakes.
Rates of Activity
Rates of activity may be learned from the study of geomorphic features (Matsuda, 1975); faults with high slip rate
have abundant and well-developed landforms and steep scarps (Wallace, 1977; Hanks et al., 1984; Chapters 7, 12, and 14,
this volume). The interrelationships of time between characteristic earthquakes (the recurrence interval), fault slip rate, and
earthquake magnitude are shown in Figure 3.2. Slip rates presented in this figure are based on average displacement, which
is more likely to be measured during field studies, rather than maximum displacement. We have assumed that the average
displacement is one-half the maximum displacement.
EARTHQUAKE SIZE AND ACTIVE FAULT PARAMETERS
Earthquake Magnitude s and Moment Magnitude
Earthquake magnitude scales are one of the most important earthquake size source parameters used today in
seismology and active-tectonic studies. Magnitude scales have different forms such as local magnitude (ML), surface-wave
magnitude (MS), body-wave magnitude (M b), and coda-duration magnitude (M c) (Kanamori, 1977; Bath, 1981; Chung and
Bernreuter, 1981). These different forms were originally created to accommodate different kinds of seismic networks (e.g.,
near field versus far field) in the magnitude determination of earthquakes. One of the principal differences between the
magnitude scales is the period of the wave measured. This difference of measured frequency arises from the variety of
instrument responses of seismometers used and the changing frequency spectrum of the waves reaching seismometers at
various distances from the earthquake sources. The local magnitude scale was introduced by C.F.Richter for earthquakes in
southern California with epicentral distances of 600 km or less and focal depths of 15 km or less. Both ML and Mb are
determined from the amplitude of waves with a period of about 1 sec, and the values of these magnitudes are thought to
saturate at about magnitude 7.25 (Chung and Bernreuter, 1981). Thus, as the rupture gets larger in area from that of a
magnitude 7.25 earthquake, the values of ML and Mb increase very little and do not represent the entire energy released from
the earthquake.
The surface wave magnitude is suitable for global distances and is measured at periods near 20 sec. The MS scale
saturates at about magnitude 8.6 (Chung and Bernreuter, 1981).
Another useful seismic estimate of earthquake size, the seismic moment (M0), is defined as the product of the rupture
area (A), the average displacement of the rupture (D), and the shear modulus (µ) along the rupture (Brune, 1968),
Hanks and Kanamori (1979) developed a moment magnitude scale (M w) based on seismic moment, where
The moment magnitude is an important scale because it relates directly with the physical properties of the rupture and
does not, by definition, saturate.
Earthquake size is one of the most important factors in seismic-hazard analysis and can be estimated using specific
fault parameters. When using magnitude data, it is important to understand the characteristics of the scale being used, such
as saturation, and to understand the quality or range in errors and uncertainties of the data used for the magnitude estimate.
Fault Rupture Parameters and Earthquake Size
Tocher (1958) recognized that there was a good relationship in large historical earthquakes between size or magnitude
and the logarithmic parameters of total surface rupture length, maximum displacement, or length times maximum
displacement. Subsequent reports by Iida (1959, 1965), Bonilla (1967, 1970), and Bonilla and Buchanan (1970) refined the
original linear regressions. Bonilla with his colleagues (Bonilla and Buchanan, 1970; Mark, 1977; Mark and Bonilla, 1977)
and Slemmons (1977) added new data points and rejected poor data, improved magnitude values and statistical practices,
and scrutinized the quality of field measurements of faulting parameters. More compatible linear regres
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sions with lower standard deviations and better fit were obtained by Slemmons (1982b) and using more sophisticated
magnitude values and statistical methods by Bonilla et al. (1984). Where there is good field expression of the length and/or
maximum displacement from geomorphic expression of fault scarps, or where these parameters can be measured from
soil-stratigraphic relations, it is possible to infer the approximate magnitude of paleoseismic events. These correlations
between fault parameters and earthquake magnitude have been made for siting and engineering design of vital structures in
many parts of the world for diverse tectonic settings, including extensional areas such as the Basin and Range province
(Wallace, 1977, 1978; Cluff et al., 1980; Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984) and regions of strike-slip faulting (Sieh, 1984;
Sieh and Jahns, 1984) and for thrust faulting in regions with compressional tectonics (Woodward-Clyde Consultants,
1984). An application to intraplate locations is shown by the left-oblique faulting of the Meers Fault zone in Oklahoma.
There a 26- to 38-km-long fault scarp can be mapped. Using correlations of length to MS magnitude, the scarp can be
inferred to have formed during prehistoric earthquakes of between 6.5 to 7.5 magnitude (Slemmons et al., 1985). This
paleoseismic evidence is especially important since no historical earthquakes have been recorded in the area. Elsewhere in
this zone a general alignment of epicenters of small earthquakes has been noted (Gordon, 1985).
In summary, active fault parameters such as length and displacement can be used to estimate earthquake magnitudes
through the regression formula presented by Slemmons (1982b) or Bonilla et al. (1984), and the parameters can be used
directly in a moment magnitude calculation. An example of these correlations is shown in Figure 3.4.
Segme ntation
The segmentation of fault systems involves the identification of individual fault segments that appear to have
continuity, character, and orientation; these suggest that a segment will rupture as a unit (Slemmons, 1982b). Individual
fault segments have different characteristics relative to adjacent segments or are separated from adjacent segments by
identifiable discontinuities.
Figure 3.5 illustrates the concept that fault zones rupture in segments with an example from Turkey. During the period
1939 to 1967, the North Anatolian Fault system ruptured as segments and not as a single through-going event.
The delineation of segments involves the identification of discontinuities in the fault system. Discontinuities can be
divided into two categories, geometric and inhomogeneous; these categories are borrowed from seismologists who have
used these terms for asperities and barriers (Aki, 1984). Examples of geometric discontinuities include fault intersections,
such as branch faults or cross-fault terminations; fault-zone features, such as en echelon segments, separations, and changes
in attitude; and fault terminations. Inhomogeneous discontinuities include variations in fault width, local stress regimes, and
rates of displacement.
FIGURE 3.4 Relationship between earthquake magnitude (MS ) and maximum displacement for strike-slip faults. (From
Slemmons, 1982b.)
Segall and Pollard (1980), acknowledging that fault traces consist of numerous discrete segments, have developed a
two-dimensional mathematical solution for nonintersecting cracks. Their solution describes the mechanical behavior of
left-stepping versus right-stepping en echelon cracks in a right lateral stress regime. Segall and Pollard state, “for right
lateral shear and left-stepping cracks, normal tractions on the overlapping crack ends increase and inhibit frictional sliding,
whereas for right-stepping cracks, normal tractions decrease and facilitate sliding.” Bakun et al. (1980) studied the
seismicity and behavior of the San Andreas Fault zone in central California where strain release is characterized by creep
and moderate earthquakes. In their analysis, they modeled fault segments in an en echelon fashion (Figure 3.6). Behavior of
these segments was as would be pre
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dicted by Segall and Pollard's model, strengthening the idea that fault systems behave in a segmented manner.
FIGURE 3.5 Sequence of faulting along the North Anatolian Fault zone, Turkey, for the period 1939–1983. (Modified from
Ambraseys, 1978.)
If the discontinuities are large enough, segmentation of a fault system may be intuitively easy (e.g., a 10-km en
echelon step appears to be a substantial discontinuity with a good chance of stopping a rupture). In less clear cases of
discontinuities, several lines of geologic, seismologic, and geometric evidence must be gathered to suggest or substantiate
the existence of the discontinuity. An understanding and delineation of the entire earthquake history of a fault can be used
as relatively strong evidence of segmentation. Once convinced that a particular segmentation is reasonable, various
approaches including correlation with faulting parameters can be used to estimate earthquake magnitudes. Schwartz and
Coppersmith (1984; Chapter 14, this volume) suggested examples of fault zones for which the segmentation model may be
applicable.
EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE ESTIMATION
Recurrence Models
Earthquake recurrence intervals can vary markedly from fault to fault. Historical seismicity of the Parkfield segment
of the San Andreas Fault system suggests a recurrence rate of 21±4 yr (Bakun and McEvilly, 1984), whereas soils and
trenching data suggest to Machette (1978) that the County Dump Fault in New Mexico has a recurrence interval of 90,000
to 190,000 yr. As pointed out by Wallace (1970) and Schwartz and Coppersmith (1984; Chapter 14, this volume), the slip
rate of a fault directly affects recurrence rates.
Various models have been used to explain earthquake recurrence, including the time-predictable (Shimazaki and
Nakata, 1980; Bufe et al., 1977), slip-predictable (Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980), and the periodical model (Bakun and
McEvilly, 1984).
Recurrence Data
Wallace (1970) discussed recurrence for the San Andreas Fault. Subsequent refinements in dating, exploratory
trenching, geomorphic expression, and low-Sun-angle aerial reconnaissance or photography have greatly expanded
knowledge of faulting recurrence, paleoseismicity, and scarp morphologic change. These new methods are critical to active
fault evaluations and timing and probability analyses.
Studies determining paleoseismic history have been conducted recently at Pallett Creek (Sieh, 1984) and Wallace
Creek (Sieh and Jahns, 1984) and at Cajon Pass (Weldon and Sieh, 1985) along the San Andreas Fault zone. Cross-cutting
relationships and radiocarbon dates
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limit the ages of the prehistoric ruptures, and can be used to determine a local recurrence interval and slip rate for the fault.
Although the 1886 Charleston earthquakes apparently did not rupture the ground surface, preventing a direct analysis of
recurrence rate, studies of liquefaction-related sand blows in the Charleston area by Obermeier et al. (1985) suggest at least
two prehistoric events occurred that may be used to establish the recurrence interval of large earthquakes for the area.
Thatcher (1984) noted examples in which geodetic measurements may also lead to recurrence estimates.
Seismic Gaps
Mogi (1979) pointed out that the term “seismic gap” has been used to describe two different phenomena. Mogi termed a
seismic gap of the first kind as a gap in the spatial distribution of rupture zones of the largest earthquakes in a seismic belt. A
second kind of seismic gap is a gap in the seismicity of smaller-magnitude earthquakes before larger earthquakes.
FIGURE 3.6 (Top) Schematic fault model structure. Interior of the smooth, continuous, nearly planar segments are creeping
patches (C). Stuck patches are classified as pinned (P), unpinned (U), or bent (B) if they occur at a left-stepping offset, a right-
stepping offset, or a change in strike, respectively. (Bottom) Specific model for the Bear Valley-Limekiln Road section of the
San Andreas Fault in central California. (From Bakun et al., 1980.)
Wallace (1981) described seismic gaps as active-tectonic zones between recently active fault segments with high
potential for reactivation in the near future. Wallace and Whitney (1984) examined the paleoseismic history of three
segments of the Central Nevada Seismic Belt—the Dixie Valley Fault segment, the Stillwater Fault segment, and the
Pleasant Valley Fault zone segment. They found that scarps 104 to 105 yr of age and approximately Holocene age (less than
104 yr) are present in places along all three segments. However, within historical time, only the Pleasant Valley faults in
1915 and the Dixie Valley faults in 1954 ruptured. Within the intervening Stillwater seismic gap there are no free faces
preserved on Holocene scarps, indicating that they are probably older than 300 yr. Wallace and Whitney (1984) commented
that “the Stillwater gap is a likely site for future major faulting, but the low level of seismicity in the gap area suggests that
the next major earthquake is not imminent.”
Other fault systems where seismic gaps of the first kind have been identified are plate boundary systems. McCann et
al. (1979) conducted a comprehensive study of large earthquakes and seismic gaps along major plate boundaries. Figure 3.7
shows large earthquakes and seismic gaps along the major plate boundaries near Alaska. The second type of seismic gap
applies mainly to the earthquake prediction and management.
CASE STUDIES
Character of the Subduction in Northweste rn United States—Seismic or Aseismic?
Several lines of evidence suggest the Juan de Fuca and Gorda plates are being subducted underneath the North
American plate in the northwestern United States. These include (1) the Cascade Range, an active andesitic chain of
volcanoes; (2) seismicity related to the Benioff-Wadati zone (Smith and Knapp, 1980; Cockerham, 1984; Tabor and Smith,
1985); (3) geodetic deformation consistent with subduction (Ando and Balazs, 1979; Savage et al., 1981); and (4)
deformation of marine terraces consistent with subduction (Adams, 1984). Although active subduction seems clear, this
system has been relatively aseismic with respect to great subduction-zone earthquakes. Subduction is either proceeding with
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relatively little coupling with the overriding plate and thus large elastic strains are not being stored, or the subducting Juan
de Fuca/Gorda plate is strongly coupled with the overriding plate, producing conditions in which a large earthquake could
occur in the future and the historical period is a period between
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earthquakes (Ando and Balazs, 1979; Weaver and Smith, 1983; Adams, 1984).
FIGURE 3.7 Recent large earthquakes along the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone. Areas along this zone that have not ruptured
are considered seismic gaps and may be the locations of future large earthquakes. (From McCann et al., 1979.)
Recent studies have been undertaken to assess the seismic potential associated with subduction in this region (Heaton
and Kanamori, 1984; Adams, 1984). Heaton and Kanamori examined the seismic coupling process and compared the Juan
de Fuca subduction zone with subduction of other young oceanic plates. In particular, they compared convergence rates,
ages of lithosphere, presence of active back-arc basins, depth of oceanic trench, dip of the Benioff-Wadati zone, topography
of the subducted slab, and seismic quiescence. Present-day convergence across the Juan de Fuca subduction zone has been
estimated as 3 to 4 cm/yr, a moderate rate for subduction zones. The age of the subducted slab has been estimated at 10 to
15 m.y., a relatively young lithospheric plate (Heaton and Kanamori, 1984). They associated the young buoyant crust with
strong coupling with the overriding plate; and when rates of plate movement and the age of ocean floor are used (Ruff and
Kanamori, 1980), they estimated a maximum moment magnitude of Mw=8.3±0.5. They also proposed that other parameters
such as the dip of the Benioff-Wadati zone (10 to 15° beneath Puget Sound), topography of the subducted slab, absence of a
back-arc basin, and depth of trench suggest strong coupling of the plates. In their worst-case model of strong coupling, the
Juan de Fuca subduction zone could rupture in one event (approximately 600 km by 200 km; convergence rate=4 cm/yr),
with an estimated maximum moment magnitude of Mw =9.0.
Heaton and Kanamori (1984) commented, “this 500-km gap in seismic activity is one of the most remarkable to be
found anywhere in the Circum-Pacific belt,” and “if slip is occurring aseismically on the shallow part of the subduction
zone, then this particular example would have to be considered unique.” They concluded, “that there is sufficient evidence
to warrant further study of the possibility of a great subduction zone earthquake in the Pacific Northwest.”
Adams (1984) suggested types of geologic investigations of paleoseismic activity that could help resolve the seismic
hazard. A possible example is Sims's (1975) study of disturbances of glacio-lacustrine deposits in the western Puget Sound
area, which considered 14 disturbed zones in the 40,000-yr-old sediments to be caused by earthquakes. Such evidence
needs to be verified as truly seismogenic, synchronous with earthquakes, and distributed over a larger part of the Pacific
Northwest.
Definitive studies have yet to resolve the issue of whether this Benioff-Wadati zone is seismogenic or aseismic.
Resolution is important to future building, siting, design, and zoning within Washington and Oregon. Many existing
engineered structures may have inadequate design for earthquakes of magnitude 7.5, 8.0, or 8.5.
Implications of the Meers Fault, Oklahoma
The Meers Fault (Figure 3.8) is a relatively short fault of about 75-km length in the Frontal Fault zone between the
Amarillo-Wichita Uplift and the Anadarko Basin. It was previously recognized to be a major ancient fault with about 3 km
of total vertical component of offset in a zone of faults that has a total, mainly Paleozoic, offset of over 10 km. Gilbert
(1983) recognized that
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this fault showed well-defined steep scarps suggesting late Quaternary to prehistorical activity with earthquakes of
magnitude 6 to 7. This statement was unexpected, as this area has no historical seismicity and is almost 600 km east of the
nearest recognized Quaternary faults of the Rio Grande-Rocky Mountain Belt. Previous seismic assessments of earthquake
risk assumed that maximum future earthquakes would be of magnitude 5.5 or less, the maximum historical earthquake
within the region. As noted by Kerr (1985), this area would have been an ideal one for vital engineering structures, because
the fault appeared to be inactive and not a seismic threat. Studies by Ramelli and Slemmons (1985) and Tilford and Westen
(1985) confirmed that there is a young fault scarp of about 26- to 28-km length along part of the Meers Fault zone. Ramelli
and Slemmons subsequently identified another scarp that extends the main scarp for a total length of about 38 km. The
compound scarp of 5-m height developed from repeated surface fault offsets. Donovan (1985), Kerr (1985), Slemmons et
al. (1985), and other workers also showed that the fault also had a left-lateral component. Past offsets were at least 1 or 2 m
per event. These data suggest that past offsets were accompanied by earthquakes of surface wave magnitude of 6.5 to 7.5.
The Holocene activity is confirmed by radiometric dating (Madole and Meyer, 1985) and youthful scarp morphology
(Ramelli and Slemmons, 1985). The lack of significant historical seismicity is indicated by Gordon (1985), Gordon and
Dewey (1985), and Lawson (1985), although Gordon recognized a general epicentral alignment with the Wichita-Ouachita
zone, with left-lateral focal mechanisms in this trend.
FIGURE 3.8 Aerial view of the late Holocene Meers Fault in Oklahoma. The fault scarp is about 5 m high and shows left-
lateral offset of drainage lines and ridges.
This unexpected young fault leads to the speculation that there are possible connections between the Frontal Fault
zone and the Mississippi trend of epicenters in the New Madrid, Missouri, area (with short zones of surface faulting in
1811–1812). Further connections were suggested by Hinze et al. (1980, 1985) between the New Madrid area and the east-
west trending zone of faults in the complex group of faults in the Cottage Grove-Moorman Syncline-Rough Creek-
Kentucky River Fault zone. Pleistocene fault activity along the Kentucky River Fault zone has been suggested by
VanArsdale and Sergeant (1985). They examined trenches in the Plio-Pleistocene terrace deposits along the Kentucky
River Fault zone and found the deposits folded, faulted, and injected with clay dikes. These connections suggest a possible
extensive Quaternary breakup of the midcontinental region along reactivated faults; a potential for high-magnitude
earthquakes may be present. In addition it indicates the need for more studies of tectonic activity in Central and Eastern
United States and the reassessment of the current rationale for evaluating earthquake activity in this intraplate region.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Much of the research that contributed to this paper is related to special studies for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
Commission. We gratefully acknowledge their support and encouragement. We are especially grateful to Jim Lienkaemper
of the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park; his careful and perceptive review led to many discussions and beneficial
changes in the paper. Barbara Matz of the Mackay School of Mines provided
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both word processing and editorial assistance. We also benefitted from technical and editorial comments from Steve
Brocoum, Tom Usselman, David R.Slemmons, Sunny Meriweather, and Hank Ohlin.
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 63
4
Active Faults Related to Folding
ROBERT S.YEATS
Oregon State University
ABSTRACT
Active convergent zones contain fold-and-thrust belts that deform a sedimentary wedge by low-angle thrusting and flexural-slip
folding over a subjacent, more rigid basement. Flexural-slip faults form by bedding slip during flexural-slip folding and are
observed when unconformably overlying deposits are deformed by renewed folding. These faults are upthrown toward
synclinal axes and die out in fold hinges. Bending-moment faults are produced because the convex side of a folded layer is
lengthened normal to the fold axis and placed in tension, forming normal faults and extension fractures, whereas the concave
side is shortened and placed in compression, forming reverse faults. Neither class of fault is likely to extend downward to rocks
of such high strength that enough elastic strain energy could be stored to produce a large earthquake when released suddenly.
However, all known historical examples are coseismic, and age relations on such second-order faults may apply to subjacent
first-order seismogenic faults. Some folds such as Anticline Ridge at Coalinga, California, apparently are surface expressions
of buried seismogenic faults. Regionally, fold-and-thrust belts may be modeled by the snow plow model of Davis et al. (1983)
if the slope of the upper and lower boundaries of the forward-tapering wedge, the coefficients of basal and internal friction, and
the ratio of pore pressure to hydrostatic pressure are known. This model implies that the deformation migrates toward the
margin of the thrust belt such that youngest structures are at the edge; and pore pressures within individual folds, even those
back from the edge, probably exceed hydrostatic.
INTRODUCTION
Folds and low-angle thrust faults are an important component of ancient mountain belts. Thus it is surprising that they
are not more widely reported in the literature on active tectonics. Part of the reason for this is that mountain belts
characterize zones of plate convergence, and most of these zones comprise the accretionary wedges confronting island arcs
and are, accordingly, offshore. The southern margin of the convergence zone of southern Asia extending west from the
Himalaya to the Zagros Mountains is perhaps the most notable exception on land.
Most of the literature on active tectonics deals with zones of strike slip: the San Andreas Fault system of California,
the Alpine Fault system of New Zealand, and the North Anatolian Fault system of Turkey, among others. Yet even in these
zones, there are smaller regions dominated by tectonic convergence: the Transverse Ranges of California and the ranges
and basins of the
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 64
northwestern South Island and central Otago, New Zealand, for example. Both the full-scale convergence zones, such as the
Himalaya, and the zones subordinate to transform faulting, such as the Transverse Ranges, contain examples of active folds
and low-angle thrust faults, and future research is likely to discover that active folds and thrust faults are as widespread in
the active convergent zones as they are in extinct mountain belts. This chapter reviews the state of knowledge of structures
related to folding in light of their impact on society.
MECHANICAL BACKGROUND
The mechanical properties of fold-and-thrust belts were considered by Elliott (1976) and Chapple (1978), building on
the earlier work of Hubbert and Rubey (1959). Chapple (1978) noted that fold-and-thrust belts, whether on land or
offshore, should show (1) a basal surface of décollement below which there is little or no deformation; (2) an overall shape
in cross section of a wedge tapering toward the edge of the mountain belt with its base, the basal décollement, sloping
toward the interior of the mountain belt; and (3) extensive horizontal contraction in the tapered wedge above the basal
décollement. Davis et al. (1983) considered the mechanics of a fold-and-thrust wedge to be analogous to that of the wedge
of snow that forms ahead of the blade of a moving snow plow. The snow deforms until the wedge attains a critical taper,
then slides stably, growing as new snow is accreted at the front of the wedge. Parameters essential to an understanding of
the mechanics of a fold-and-thrust wedge include the angle of topographic slope of the wedge toward the frontal edge of the
deformed belt, the angle of rearward slope of the basal décollement, the coefficient of internal friction within the wedge, the
coefficient of sliding friction on the base (about 0.85 according to Byerlee, 1978), and the ratio of pore fluid pressure to the
vertical stress imposed by overburden (Ȝ). Davis et al. (1983) applied their mechanical model to the active fold-and-thrust
belt of western Taiwan, where extensive subsurface information is available, and they determined the critical parameters to
be angle of forward topographic slope 2.9±0.3°, rearward slope of the décollement 6°, and Ȝ equal to 0.7. The fold-and-
thrust wedge is above sea level, and the topography is at steady state: thickening of the wedge by contractile tectonics is
balanced by erosion, which proceeds at a rate of 5 to 6 mm/yr (Li, 1976; Suppe, 1981). The model is sensitive to the nature
of material comprising the décollement, where it is assumed that essentially pure frictional sliding occurs. However,
evaporites characterize the fold-and-thrust wedges of the Zagros Mountains (Stöcklin, 1968) and the Salt Range of Pakistan
(Seeber et al., 1981), and these may yield plastically rather than by pressure-dependent Coulomb friction. The snowplow
model has two important implications for active tectonics: (1) the age of deformation should migrate outward toward the
front of the wedge, and (2) rocks within the wedge are near the point of critical failure and are likely to exhibit pore
pressures greater than hydrostatic.
Yeats et al. (1981) pointed out that faults that do not extend downward into rocks of high strength will not be expected
to produce large-amplitude ground acceleration that is due to seismic shaking because such rocks under near-surface
confining pressures are not capable of storing enough elastic strain energy to generate a large earthquake when that strain
energy is released instantaneously. Because fold-and-thrust belts terminate downward at a basal décollement over an
undeformed rigid basement, the question of their seismotectonic signature is an important one. Where the décollement
contains rocks of such low strength that deformation may occur plastically under low confining pressure, as in the Zagros
Mountains and the Pakistan Salt Range, internal deformation is probably not accompanied by large earthquakes (Berberian,
1981; Seeber et al., 1981; Seeber, 1983). In the thinner portions of fold-and-thrust wedges, the rocks are probably not under
sufficient confining pressure to possess much shear strength, even though they behave according to Coulomb friction laws.
However, in the thicker portions of wedges, the earthquake potential is not so clear. Seeber et al. (1981) suggested that the
greatest earthquakes of the Indian Himalaya occur in front of the range in the Ganges foredeep, even though this area has
been characterized by low instrumental seismicity in recent years. The large isoseismal areas of these earthquakes and lack
of surface rupture in great historical earthquakes of the Ganges flood plain suggest that a large part of the décollement
surface moves as a blind thrust, producing a detachment earthquake. The 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska, earthquake
also may be of detachment type (Seeber et al., 1981).
FLEXURAL-SLIP FAULTS
General Statement
Most folds characteristic of foreland fold-and-thrust belts form by flexural slip. A stack of stiff beds alternating with
thin, less stiff layers is end-loaded, and these beds buckle by slip on inherently weaker bedding surfaces separating stiffer
beds (Ramsay, 1967, pp. 392–393). Slickensides on these weak surfaces are perpendic
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 65
ular to the fold axis. Thickness of individual competent beds remains constant from hinge to limbs of folds. Rock layers are
flexed, and upper layers slip over underlying layers toward anticlinal hinges and away from synclinal hinges. Slip is zero at
fold hinges. On the limbs of the fold, the amount of slip on bedding faults depends on the maximum dip of the limbs and
the thickness of each flexed layer. Because such bedding faults, called flexural-slip faults by Yeats et al. (1981), do not
produce stratigraphic separation, they are not likely to be recognized unless there is a sequence overlying the flexural-slip
fold with angular unconformity, and continued folding causes displacement of these younger deposits. Such deposits are
cut by faults that are parallel to bedding in the folded sequence and upthrown toward the subjacent synclinal axis. The
younger deposits are likely to be tilted toward the synclinal axis so that their dip is in the same direction as that in the
subjacent, more strongly folded beds. Because flexural-slip faults remain in bedding, they do not extend to depths greater
than the amplitude of the flexural-slip fold. Furthermore, displacement vanishes in the axis of the syncline where the faulted
bedding plane is deepest. Beds at these depths, which would in most cases not exceed a few kilometers, are likely to have
shear strength too low under such low confining pressures for bedding faults to generate large earthquakes, particularly in
view of the fact that such faults form along the structurally weakest layers.
Gre y-Inangahua Basin, New Zealand
Flexural-slip faulting was first described (although not named) by Suggate (1957) and Young (1963) in the Grey-
Inangahua Basin of the northwestern South Island, New Zealand (Figure 4.1). The Grey-Inangahua Basin is a northeast-
trending structural depression filled with Cenozoic strata resting with angular unconformity on a terrane consisting of
Mesozoic and older rocks, including granitic basement. The Cenozoic strata are folded asymmetrically on the west side of
the basin against the Paparoa Range. The folded strata are overlain with angular unconformity by glacial outwash gravels
that form prominent surfaces above present river level. South of Giles Creek, one of these surfaces is cut by faults parallel
to bedding in subjacent strata and upthrown toward the subjacent synclinal axis (Suggate, 1957). The surface is also tilted
toward the synclinal axis (shown diagrammatically in Figure 4.2).
A terrace riser cuts across the faults, and the fault scarps are higher on the more elevated terrace surface (Suggate,
1957; Yeats, in press; Figure 4.2). The changes in scarp height may be explained using Lensen's (1968) reasoning at Branch
River, New Zealand. Faulting occurred after the outwash stream had abandoned the terrace surface southwest of the terrace
riser and while it still flowed across the lower terrace surface to the northeast. Further erosion removed the fault scarps
northeast of the terrace riser where the stream still flowed but preserved the scarps on the abandoned, higher surface to the
southwest. Renewed faulting occurred after the stream had abandoned the outwash surface altogether. The scarps northeast
of the terrace riser reflect only the later faulting whereas the scarps southwest of the terrace riser reflect both episodes of
faulting.
FIGURE 4.1 Tectonic map of the Buller region, South Island, New Zealand. Heavy lines are faults with bar and ball on
downthrown side. Arrows on monoclines point to downwarped side. Short heavy lines show flexural-slip fault sets in Grey-
Inangahua Basin: BB, Blackball; BR, Big River; GC, Giles Creek; RC, Rough Creek (active in 1968); RO, Rotokohu (active in
1968); IF, Inangahua (active in 1968).
Transverse Ranges, California
Flexural-slip faulting is also documented in the Ventura Basin, California, northeast of Santa Paula, where Pliocene-
Pleistocene strata are strongly folded and locally overturned on the north flank of the Santa Clara syncline and are overlain
the authoritative version for attribution.
by alluvial fans derived from mountains to the north (Figure 4.3) (Keller et al., 1982; Rockwell, 1983). Surfaces of these
fans are tilted toward the Santa Clara synclinal axis and are cut by faults that are parallel to bedding in the subjacent,
strongly folded
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 66
strata and are upthrown toward the synclinal axis. The faults show normal separation where the subjacent bedding is
overturned and reverse separation where bedding is upright (Figure 4.3). Fan emplacement during tilting resulted in a cycle
starting with fan deposition, then tilting followed by fan entrenchment, then deposition of a new fan surface, which was
itself subsequently tilted. Seven geomorphic surfaces ranging in age from present day to an estimated 120,000 yr are
recognized by Keller et al. (1982) and Rockwell (1983) on the basis of degree of soil development calibrated in part by 14C
dates and on the amount of tectonic deformation. Four of the older surfaces show increasing tilt and scarp height with
increasing age.
FIGURE 4.2 Block diagram showing relations at Giles Creek, South Island, New Zealand. Outwash gravels overlie steeply
dipping strata on limb of syncline in which synclinal axis is southeast of diagram. Gravels are tilted toward synclinal axis.
Bedding-plane (flexural-slip) faults propagate upward through gravels and appear as scarps facing away from synclinal axis.
Fault scarps are higher on high side of terrace riser, indicating that some faulting occurred after outwash drainage had
abandoned the high side of the terrace riser but still occupied the low side. Additional faulting occurred after the drainage had
abandoned the terrace altogether. Fault scarp A faces up the depositional slope and is ungullied, indicating that it formed so
suddenly that the rills occupying old outwash channels were ponded at base of scarp. Fault scarp B also formed
instantaneously, but it is small enough that rill drainage was maintained across it, thereby gullying the scarp.
Other examples of flexural-slip faulting in the Transverse Ranges are recognized in the Oakview area of the Ventura
Basin (Keller et al., 1982) and Point Conception, west of Santa Barbara, California (Cluff et al., 1981).
Shinano River, Niigata Prefecture, Japan
Active folding has been recognized in Japan for many years (Otuka, 1942), and attempts have been made to compare
rates of folding of river terraces with rates of folding of subjacent strata (Sugimura, 1967; Kaizuka, 1967; Nakamura and
Ota, 1969). The most extensively documented active folds occur in central Japan along the Shinano River (Ota, 1969),
which flows northward across folded strata of the Pliocene-Pleistocene Uonuma Group. These folds are overlain with
angular unconformity by fluvial terraces that are themselves folded. Strike faults cut the terraces at Yamamoto-yama (cross
section 6 of Figure 6 of Ota, 1969) and northwest of Ojiya town (cross section 7 of Figure 6 of Ota, 1969). At Yamamoto-
yama, Ota observed that the faults are upthrown in the direction of the synclinal axis of the folded Uonuma Group and of
the oldest fluvial terrace. In a recent visit to the area with the author, she confirmed that the terrace remnants between the
strike faults slope toward the synclinal axis, indicating that the faults are probably flexural-slip faults.
The early work northwest of Ojiya town had suggested that the strike faults there are downthrown toward the
synclinal axis. However, Ota and Suzuki (1979) described a new quarry exposure near Katakai, which exposed the faulted
terrace and the underlying Uonuma Group (Figure 4.4). Four faults parallel to bedding in the Uonuma Group cut the
overlying terrace and are upthrown toward the synclinal axis. In the quarry exposure, the steeply dipping Uonuma Group
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FIGURE 4.3 Diagrammatic cross section across north flank of Santa Clara syncline east of Santa Paula, Ventura Basin,
California. Flexural-slip faults have normal separation where subjacent strata are overturned, reverse separation where
subjacent strata are upright. Older fan has more separation and tilt than younger fan. Modified from Yeats et al. (1981) and
Keller et al. (1982). No vertical exaggeration. Inset: OT, Orcutt-Timber Canyon flexural-slip faults; OV, Oakview flexural-slip
faults.
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 67
consists of fine-grained nonmarine strata with two interbeds of conglomerate. Two of the four faults occur at the contact
between a gravel interbed and the finer grained strata, suggesting that the faults are localized by lithology contrasts in the
underlying, folded strata.
FIGURE 4.4 Quarry exposure of tilted and faulted Shinano River stream terrace unconformably overlying steeply dipping
Uonuma Group near Katakai, Niigata Prefecture, Japan. Two faults in gravel (F1 and F2) are propagated upward into terrace
material from contacts between conglomerate and fine-grained strata of Uonuma group (from Ota and Suzuki, 1979).
Examples of Coseismic Flexural-Slip Faulting
There are no known examples of flexural-slip faults formed by aseismic creep. However, there are examples of such
faults accompanying earthquakes at Lompoc, California; El Asnam, Algeria; and possibly Inangahua, New Zealand. On
April 7, 1981, an earthquake of ML= 2.5 in a diatomite quarry near Lompoc, California, produced a zone of reverse fault
scarps at least 575 m long, with the fault plane formed in clay interbeds in diatomite and diatomaceous shale on the north
flank of a syncline (Yerkes et al., 1983). Maximum net slip was 25 cm, with maximum dip slip of 23 cm and right-lateral
strike slip of 9 cm. The earthquake is best explained by removal of diatomite during quarrying under conditions in which
maximum principal compressive stress is horizontal and normal to the synclinal axis. Removal of overburden increased the
shear stress on the bedding plane enough to cause the earthquake 2 yr after the end of quarrying (Yerkes et al., 1983).
FIGURE 4.5 Diagrammatic cross section of coseismic flexural-slip faulting at Kef el Mes, El Asnam earthquake, 1980, after
Philip and Meghraoui (1983). Earthquake-generating reverse fault at A; earthquake-generated faults at B produced by renewed
folding of syncline.
The El Asnam, Algeria, earthquake reactivated a reverse fault and was accompanied by extensive internal deformation
of the rocks adjacent to the surface trace of this fault (Philip and Meghraoui, 1983). At Kef el Mes, near the northeastern
limit of 1980 surface rupture, the reverse fault was accompanied by renewed flexural-slip folding of Pliocene strata in an
adjacent syncline (Figure 4.5). Flexural-slip faulting on bedding planes produced fault scarps that produced displacement in
an opposite sense to that on the main fault.
The Inangahua, New Zealand, earthquake of May 24, 1968, was apparently generated on the Inangahua reverse fault,
which joins the Glasgow Fault to the northeast (Figure 4.1; Lensen and Suggate, 1968; Lensen and Otway, 1971; Nathan,
1978a). The Rotokohu and Rough Creek Faults were formed during this earthquake by slip parallel to bedding on the north
flank of a syncline in folded Neogene strata, producing scarps in late Pleistocene outwash gravels that overlie the folded
strata unconformably (Lensen and Otway, 1971). Vertical leveling profiles across the Rotokohu Fault also showed this
displacement (Boyes, 1971). Lensen (1976) later used the surface faulting accompanying the Inangahua earthquake to
classify faults as earthquake-generating (Inangahua) and earthquake-generated (Rotokohu and Rough Creek). However,
the Rotokohu and Rough Creek Faults are parallel to a sharp linear gradient in isostatic gravity anomalies (Anderson,
1979), and they may be the surface expression of a structure involv
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 68
ing basement rocks rather than faults produced by flexural-slip folding.
Field evidence suggests that at least the larger flexural-slip faults at Giles Creek and Blackball in the Grey-Inangahua
Basin are coseismic (Yeats, in press). The flexural-slip faults at both these localities face west, up the depositional slope of
the outwash surfaces that they cut (Figure 4.2). The surface at Giles Creek is grooved by braided channels that formerly
carried outwash gravels from glaciers on the east side of the Paparoa Range. After abandonment of the outwash surface, the
braided channels remained, but they now carry only the runoff derived from the surface itself whereas formerly they carried
detritus from the Paparoa Range. Most of the west-facing fault scarps are ungullied, even though they are very old; the
faults cut surfaces more than 100,000 yr old (Suggate, 1965; Nathan, 1978b; R.P. Suggate, New Zealand Geological
Survey, personal communication, 1984), but they do not cut an outwash surface at Blackball considered to be 18,000 to
23,000 yr old (Nathan, 1978b; Suggate, 1965; Suggate and Moar, 1970).
The ungullied west-facing scarps at Giles Creek are in contrast to extensively gullied east-facing scarps on the same
surface, scarps presumably related to range-front faulting (Yeats, in press). Rill drainage down the old outwash channels
dissects the scarps that face east, down the depositional slope, but collects at the base of the west-facing scarps, forming
small bogs or small streams that drain parallel to the scarp and off the surface. The only west-facing scarps that are gullied
are those in which scarp heights are relatively low, such as the southern parts of scarps B and D of Suggate (1957) and
scarp C of Young (1963). If the west-facing scarps had formed by aseismic creep on flexural-slip faults, the rill drainage
should have been able to maintain itself across the slowly rising fault scarps (Figure 4.2), just as it does when scarp height
is very low. However, the drainage is blocked by the scarps, suggesting that the scarps formed suddenly, accompanying an
earthquake. To be ungullied by the drainage, a scarp must appear instantaneously and must be high enough that the former
drainage, even at maximum stream flow, is unable to overtop the new scarp. The flexural-slip fault scarps northeast of
Santa Paula, California, face up the depositional slope of the fans that they cut (Figure 4.3), but the high initial slope of the
fan surface and the high-volume stream flow under the occasional torrential rainfall experienced in southern California
result in gullying of the newly formed scarps, even if they do form suddenly.
BENDING-MOMENT FAULTS
Deformation of a flexed layer can be treated as bending an elastic plate around a fold axis. If the plate is bent by equal
and opposite moments applied at its ends, the convex side is lengthened and placed in tension, and the concave side is
shortened and placed in compression (Figure 4.6; cf. photoelastic experiments of Currie et al., 1962). The compression and
tension of the sides are produced by a couple or bending moment (Johnson, 1970, pp. 41–50). Between that portion of the
plate in compression and that portion in tension, there is a neutral surface on which there is neither compression nor tension
(Figure 4.6). The strain within a bent plate is approximately proportional to the distance from the neutral surface and
inversely proportional to the radius of curvature of the plate.
On the convex surface, the minimum principal compressive stress (ı3) is tangent to the plate surface but perpendicular
to the axis of bending, whereas on the concave surface, the maximum principal compressive stress (ı1) has this orientation.
If the neutral surface is located at the center of the plate, the deviatoric stress (ı1íı3) is zero at the neutral surface and
maximum at the convex and concave surfaces. If the beam is structurally isotropic and homogeneous, and folding is
upright, initial rupture above the yield stress will be by extension fractures or normal faults at the convex surface and by
reverse faults at the concave surface (Figure 4.6). These faults are small scale because they extend to no greater depth than
the neutral surface of the flexed plate. Such faults should not be capable of large earthquakes if the flexed plate is a
sedimentary bed of low strength and the radius of curvature of the flexure is relatively small.
The importance of bending-moment faults in seismic-risk evaluations is in the fact that these faults are likely to
FIGURE 4.6 Bending moment faults developed on the concave and convex sides of a flexed layer. Faults should occur on both
upper and lower surfaces, but they have only been observed on upper surface.
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 69
be encountered in trenches across scarps suspected of being faults. The trench is dug with the strategy of encountering late
Quaternary deposits cut by a suspected fault. To be recognized as bending-moment faults, fault displacement must be
normal on the convex side of a fold and reverse on the concave side. Two examples from trench investigations follow.
The Ventura Fault in the Ventura Basin of California forms a linear, south-facing scarp that trends eastward along the
foot of the hills bordering the city of Ventura on the north (Sarna-Wojcicki et al., 1976). In east Ventura, the scarp diverges
from the foothills and maintains an easterly strike whereas the edge of the hills trends more to the east-northeast
(Figure 4.7). In this area, the surface of the Harmon alluvial fan is cut by a south-facing scarp attributed to the Ventura
Fault. The scarp forms the boundary between an uplifted bench of older deformed deposits on the north and young
undeformed sediments on the south (Sarna-Wojcicki et al., 1976). The seismotectonic setting of this fault in a region of
north-south horizontal contraction predicts that it should have reverse displacement. However, two trenches across the
Ventura scarp (Figure 4.7) show several normal faults that offset all but latest Holocene sediments (Sarna-Wojcicki et al.,
1976; Gardner and Stahl, 1977). The normal faults are concentrated in the flexed region and are interpreted as bending-
moment faults. These faults are secondary features apparently produced by displacement on the subjacent Ventura Fault.
Age of youngest sediments displaced by the normal faults can be assumed to date the latest movement on the Ventura
Fault, but the orientation and sense of displacement on these normal faults cannot be extrapolated to infer sense of
displacement on the Ventura Fault.
In the city of Camarillo, south of Ventura, trenches dug by Geotechnical Consultants, Inc., across a linear, south-facing
scarp (Gardner, 1982) were dug to shed light on late Quaternary movement history of the Camarillo Fault, a north-side-up
member of the Simi reverse-fault system (Figure 4.8). The trenches (Figure 4.8) revealed an increase in south dip northward
toward the scarp, but instead of a high-angle reverse fault dipping north, a low-angle, north-dipping reverse fault and a set
of high-angle, south-dipping reverse faults were found. These faults are interpreted as being produced by bending moment
on the concave side of a monoclinal bend in Quaternary sediments that are either draped over a buried fault or are part of a
pressure ridge. This interpretation makes it unlikely that the faults exposed in the trenches are seismogenic, and it also
implies that the trenches provide no evidence about whether the Camarillo Fault itself is seismogenic. As in the case of the
Ventura Fault, the youngest sediments warped across the scarp or cut by bending-moment faults can be assumed to have
been deposited prior to latest movement on the subjacent Camarillo Fault.
Bending-moment faults are also found at Toppenish Ridge, an east-trending anticline in Miocene basalts and
Quaternary sediments in south-central Washington State (Campbell and Bentley, 1981; Figure 4.9). On the north side of
Toppenish Ridge, surface ruptures near the hinge of the overturned Satus Peak anticline in basalt cut late Quaternary
alluvium and landslide material. These ruptures were interpreted by Campbell and Bentley (1981) as related to bending
moment in the hinge of the fold. The hinge of the overturned syncline immediately to the north is characterized by thrust
faults that cut Quaternary alluvium. Campbell and Bentley (1981) interpreted these as the surface expression of a
décollement thrust (Mill Creek thrust) passing underneath the anticline. I consider it to be more likely that they are due to
bending moment on the concave side of the syncline.
Finally, Philip and Meghraoui (1983) present evidence that normal faulting on the hanging wall of the 1980 El Asnam
thrust fault (Figure 4.10) is produced by bending moment as the strata in the hanging wall are folded. These are called
“extrados fractures” by Philip and Meghraoui (1983). In addition to normal faults, tension cracks appear close to the surface
with edges vertically offset and with dip-slip slickensides. Two cases are presented. Where thrusting is dip-slip (Figure
4.10A and 4.10B), normal faults are parallel to the thrust fault trace and to the anticlinal axis. Where thrusting is oblique-
slip (Figure 4.10C and 4.10D), the normal-fault grabens develop at an angle to the thrust fault trace and the anticlinal axis.
In plan view, they resemble pull-apart basins. The extension is due not only to anticlinal bending but also to left-oblique
slip in the hanging wall. As in the case of the bedding-slip faults at Kef el Mes, these faults are low-seismic although they
are coseismic—that is, they are part of the deformation accompanying a major thrust-fault earthquake, but they themselves
do not deform strata that are strong enough to store much elastic strain energy.
FOLDS RELATED TO FAULTING
The discussion above has concentrated on faults that are by-products of folding. They are near-surface structures,
hence they are small scale and unlikely to generate large earthquakes. However, the flexural-slip and bending-moment
faults at El Asnam accompanied the 1980 earthquake (Philip and Meghraoui, 1983). They accompanied near-surface
folding that was itself a by-product
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 70
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FIGURE 4.7 Sketches of two trenches across Ventura Fault simplified from Sarna-Wojcicki et al. (1976) and Geotechnical
Consultants, Inc. Ventura Fault is expressed as a flexure with slopes and dips steeper than areas to the north and south.
Hospital trench has vertical exaggeration ×2; reservoir trench has no vertical exaggeration. In both trenches, fractures are
concentrated where strata are flexed. Most fractures are normal faults or soil-filled extension fractures, as would be expected if
fractures are related to bending moment.
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 71
FIGURE 4.8 A and B, Simplified sketches of trenches across Camarillo Fault, after D.A.Gardner (1982; unpublished technical
reports by Geotechnical Consultants, Inc.). No vertical exaggeration. C, Topography of ridge in downtown Camarillo from
U.S. Geological Survey Camarillo 7 1/2-minute quadrangle, locating two trenches. Camarillo Fault is presumed to control steep
south flank of this ridge. D, Sketch of presumed relation between bending-moment faults in trenches and subjacent Camarillo
Fault.
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 72
of a deep-seated left-lateral reverse fault that generated the 1980 mainshock (Philip and Meghraoui, 1983) (Fault A of
Figure 4.5). In a similar fashion, the folds generating the flexural-slip faults in the Grey-Inangahua Basin, New Zealand,
may themselves be related to deep-seated reverse faulting at the margin of the Paparoa Range (Figure 4.1). The
seismogenic Newport-Inglewood Fault in the Los Angeles Basin, California, is for the most part not exposed at the surface.
The fault cuts basement rocks, but the fault zone is expressed at the surface as en echelon anticlines formed as pressure
ridges along the fault (Barrows, 1974; Yeats et al., 1981). Near Ventura, California, the Montalvo Mounds are late
Quaternary anticlinal ridges that mark the surface expression of the Oak Ridge high-angle reverse fault that does not itself
reach the surface (Yeats et al., 1981).
FIGURE 4.9 Tectonic sketch and diagrammatic cross section of Satus Peak anticline at Toppenish Ridge, Washington, redrawn
and modified from Campbell and Bentley (1981). Sawteeth mark the hanging-wall side of reverse faults; ticks mark the
hanging-wall side of assumed normal faults.
The May 1983 earthquake at Coalinga, California (MS=6.5), did not rupture the ground surface (although one
aftershock did) but instead augmented a fold at Anticline Ridge, as based on geodetic data (Stein and King, 1984).
Deformation of the stream bed of Los Gatos Creek, an antecedent stream that cuts across the
FIGURE 4.10 Coseismic bending-moment faults associated with 1980 El Asnam earthquake, after Philip and Meghraoui
(1983). Displacement on the main seismogenic thrust fault was accompanied by anticlinal folding in the hanging wall, which
was itself accompanied by grabens along the anticlinal crest. These grabens are parallel to the anticlinal crest (A, B) or oblique
to the anticlinal crest and stepped right where thrusting had a left-slip component (C, D). Map symbols: 1, normal fault; 2,
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tensile crack; 3, en echelon cracks; 4, thrust faults and pressure ridges; 5, attitude of dipping bed; 6, attitude of horizontal bed.
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 73
anticline, and an alluvial fan surface indicates that folding similar to the 1983 event has been taking place for the past 2500
to 10,000 yr at a rate of surface uplift of 1 to 4 mm/yr. The folding resembles that of subjacent strata and indicates that the
folding may have been taking place for at least the past 2 m.y. Stein and King (1984) modeled the folding as having been
generated by a reverse fault with a slip rate of 3 to 12 mm/yr based on the deformation of Los Gatos Creek and 1 to 4 mm/
yr based on the deformation of underlying strata. Folding is coseismic with an average recurrence interval of earthquakes
the size of the 1983 event of 200 to 1500 yr (Stein and King, 1984). In dissent, Hill (1984) noted the failure of the 1983
aftershocks to define a subsurface fault plane. Focal mechanisms of 10 earthquakes at Coalinga have nodal planes that are
parallel to folded bedding at the epicenter of each event, leading Hill (1984) to suggest that the Coalinga earthquake was
produced by deep-seated flexural-slip folding.
ACTIVE TECTONICS OF ON-LAND FOLD-AND-THRUST BELTS
Flexural-slip faults and bending-moment faults are secondary features related to flexural-slip folding, which itself
characterizes foreland fold-and-thrust belts. Davis et al. (1983) developed their mechanical model from a study of western
Taiwan (cf. Suppe and Wittke, 1977; Suppe and Namson, 1979; Suppe, 1980a,b, 1981; Namson, 1982). The active-tectonic
setting of fold-and-thrust belts is illustrated in this paper by a discussion of the active foreland thrust belt of northern
Pakistan and India, part of the Himalayan convergence zone between the Indian and Eurasian plates, and the central
Ventura Basin of California, where the convergence zone is limited in length, apparently controlled by the big bend of the
San Andreas Fault. These two regions offer the possibility of determining rates of convergence directly from the geologic
record.
Active foreland thrusting occurs on a continental scale in the foothills of the Himalaya as the Indian shield is
overridden by its own northern margin in a series of south-verging thrusts (Yeats and Lawrence, 1984). The Precambrian
Indian shield slopes gently northward beneath the Indo-Ganges floodplain and is overlain by flat-lying molasse deposits
(Siwalik Group), which are older versions of the modern drainage system (Figure 4.11). In India, the alluvial plain consists
of a northern domain in which large rivers break out of the mountains and flow south across broad distributary fans, a
central domain in which the south-flowing streams merge with the east-southeastward flow of the main Ganges River and
flow parallel to the Himalayan front, and a southern domain in which small-volume rivers flow northward from the Indian
shield into the Ganges (Geddes, 1961; Figure 4.11A). The depositional axes of Pleistocene and older Siwalik molasse
basins are parallel to the Ganges River but north of it; the older the molasse, the farther north its depositional axis
(Acharyya and Ray, 1982). The molasse basins are forced southward owing to the southward advance of Himalayan thrust
sheets such that it may be possible at a given site to progress upsection from southerly, shield-derived sediments to
northerly, Himalaya-derived sediments (Figure 4.11B; Tandon, 1976; Parkesh et al., 1980) and finally to the appearance of
the thrust sheets themselves. Lyon-Caen and Molnar (1985) suggested that the age of the basal molasse sediments overlying
the Indian Shield decreases southward at a rate of 10–15 mm/yr.
Active faults are found in the interior of the Himalaya of Nepal and India as well as the southern mountain front, but
only the mountain-front fault (Himalayan Frontal thrust) shows north-over-south thrusting (Nakata, 1972, 1982; Nakata et
al., 1984). Major thrusting in the Kathmandu intermontane basin predates deposition of the Lukundol Formation, which is
Pliocene in age as based on magnetostratigraphy and vertebrate fossils (Yoshida and Igarashi, 1984; M.Yoshida, personal
communication, 1984).
The southward advance of décollement thrusting may be better calibrated in northern Pakistan (Figure 4.12) where the
molasse basin is wider and subsurface evidence more abundant. New thrusts appear within the previously undeformed
foreland sediments resting on top of the northward-sloping Indian shield. The Salt Range overrides its own fan material and
alluvium along the newest thrust—the Salt Range thrust of late Quaternary age—and most of the major deformation is
younger than 0.4 m.y. ago (Ma) (Yeats et al., 1984; Point A, Figure 4.12). Farther north, near Rawalpindi, major
deformation is dated as between 1.9 and 2.1 Ma on the basis of molasse deposits calibrated by magnetostratigraphy and
tephrochronology above and below the major angular unconformity (Raynolds and Johnson, in press) (point B,
Figure 4.12), and the Soan syncline began to control deposition about 3 Ma (Raynolds, 1980). The distance between points A
and B projected perpendicular to strike is 100 km, and the age difference between the end of deposition of subsequently
deformed molasse deposits at the two points (2.1–0.4 Ma) is 1.7 m.y., a rate of southward migration of deformation of 60
mm/yr. Farther north, at the southern edge of the Peshawar Basin (point C, Figure 4.12), major thrusting predates
deposition of nonmarine deposits as old as 2.8 Ma as dated by magnetostratigraphy and tephrochronology (Burbank, 1983;
Burbank and Tahirkheli, 1985; Yeats and Hussain, 1985). The distance between points B and C projected perpendicular to
strike is 70 km, and
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 74
the age difference between the oldest deposits after major deformation at the two points (2.8–1.9 Ma) is 0.9 m.y., a
southward younging of 78 mm/yr. Those rates imply that new thrusts appear and propagate in the previously undeformed
molasse basin at rates higher than the convergence between the Indian and Eurasian plates.
FIGURE 4.11 A, Typical profile of the Himalayan thrust front and molasse sediments controlled by it. The Himalaya
undergoes uplift as a consequence of foreland thrusting, shedding sediments into the flanking molasse basin. These side
tributaries are collected by a master stream (Indus, Jhelum, Ganges) flowing parallel to mountain front. Tributaries on the south
are derived from Indian shield. B, Southward migration of deformation front and sedimentary facies boundaries of molasse due
to advancing foreland thrust sheets, compared to plate convergence rate. Depocenters and facies migrate south at 30 mm/yr
(Raynolds, 1980), basal molasse sediments become younger southward at 10–15 mm/yr (Lyon-Caen and Molnar, 1985), and
deformation as dated by angular unconformities migrates south at a poorly controlled rate of 60–78 mm/yr.
FIGURE 4.12 Tectonic map of southern margin of Himalaya in northern Pakistan. Intermontane basins are shaded. Points A,
B, and C are localities where age of major deformation may be dated; see text. Sawteeth mark late Quaternary thrusts; arrows
mark late Quaternary strike-slip fault.
Southward migration of the Siwalik foredeep in the Jhelum re-entrant, eastern Potwar Plateau, as based on southward
progradation of conglomerate facies (Raynolds, 1980), takes place at a rate of 30 mm/yr. This progradation was influenced
by increased uplift rates in the source areas as well as southward advance of Himalayan thrust sheets, so the rate of advance
of thrust sheets would be less than 30 mm/yr. These rates may be compared with the northward motion of the Indian plate
with respect to Eurasia of 40 mm/yr at the western end of the Himalaya to 65 mm/yr at the eastern end (Minster and
Jordan, 1978). Either most of the conver
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 75
gence between Eurasia and India is being accommodated at the southern margin of the thrust belt rather than being more
uniformly distributed between the thrusts at the southern margin and more interior and more poorly dated thrust zones, such
as the Main Central Thrust, or southward propagation of thrusts takes place faster than the rate of plate convergence. The
rate of underthrusting of India beneath the Himalaya is 18 mm/yr based on data from large earthquakes since the year 1900
(Molnar and Deng, 1984), suggesting that only part of the Indian-Eurasian convergence is being taken up within the
Himalaya, with the remainder being taken up by escape-block tectonics farther north.
The Transverse Ranges of California are controlled by north-south contractile tectonics related to the big bend in the
San Andreas Fault. In the Ventura Basin, continuous sedimentation throughout most of Quaternary time was strongly
influenced by contractile tectonics. These sediments have been age-calibrated by tephrochronology, magnetostratigraphy,
and radiometric dating (Izett et al., 1974; Blackie and Yeats, 1976; Lajoie et al., 1979, 1982; Liddicoat and Opdyke, 1981).
Based on this calibration and on the construction of balanced cross sections across the Ventura Basin, the rate of
convergence of the northern edge of the Ventura Basin against its southern edge is 23 mm/yr over the past 0.2 m.y. at
Ventura (Yeats, 1983), over half the northsouth component of Pacific-American plate motion in this area, which is 42 mm/
yr (Bird and Rosenstock, 1984). Most of this shortening occurred across the Ventura Avenue anticline and the adjacent
syncline to the north (Yeats, 1982).
The Ventura Avenue anticline contains a giant oil field with more than 1460 wells, resulting in an extensive, detailed
data set on its internal structure (Figure 4.13). Prior to formation of the anticline, the Taylor low-angle thrust fault set began
to form 1.3 Ma along a weak layer in the Pliocene turbidite sequence, moved up a 45° ramp, and stopped motion about 0.65
Ma. Maximum net slip rate was 2.8 mm/yr to the southeast (Yeats, 1983). Following the end of deposition of nonmarine
coarse-grained strata of the San Pedro Formation about 0.2 Ma, the anticline began to buckle. The Ventura River was
antecedent to this buckle, and uplift of the crest of the fold is calibrated by deformed river terraces that have been dated by
14C, with age extrapolations beyond the limits of 14C dating based on a soils chronosequence (Keller et al., 1982;
Rockwell, 1983). Uplift rates on the anticlinal crest were 4.3 to 5.2 mm/yr for the last 29,600 yr, 10.5 to 11.5 mm/yr from
80,000 to 29,600 yr ago, and 15 to 16 mm/yr from 200,000 to 80,000 yr ago (Keller et al., 1982). Rockwell (1983)
demonstrated that a rootless buckle fold formed by end loading would undergo rapid displacement normal to its loading
direction early in its formation, and this displacement would slow down as the fold became more fully developed
[Rockwell, 1983; Yeats, 1983; cf. theoretical considerations by Currie et al. (1962) and Adams (1984)]. The fold is still
under high horizontal stress because it is overpressured, with the ratio of fluid pressure to overburden pressure increasing
from 0.55 to 0.8 as radius of curvature decreases from 300 to 30 m in the core of the fold (Yeats, 1983).
If the fold is still undergoing contraction as uplift of its crest continues at a decreasing rate, how is this contraction
being accommodated? The limbs may still be steepening, but an alternative way to accommodate contraction may be the
Ventura Fault (Figure 4.7). The south-facing fault scarp occurs at the sharp boundary between flat-lying strata of the Santa
Clara syncline and south-dipping strata of the south flank of the Ventura Avenue anticline. This sharp boundary dips 45°
north to depths of several kilometers and is planar, and it is assumed that this boundary is the Ventura Fault at depth
(Figures 4.7 and 4.13). It is younger than most of the folding because it is planar, in contrast to other reverse faults that
curve over the crest of the anticline and, therefore, formed as low-angle thrusts during the early stages of folding
(Figure 4.13). Although the fault scarp is linear and well documented, subsurface well correlations indicate little or no
stratigraphic separation across the fault. As shown in Figures 8, 10, and 11 of Yeats (1982), horizons can be correlated
across the fault with a sharp change in dip, but no displacement. This led me to propose earlier that the Ventura Fault
formed by bending moment (Yeats, 1982), a conclusion that is probably wrong. My present view is that the fault formed so
recently that it has not had time to accumulate enough displacement to be documented without ambiguity in the subsurface.
The evidence for this is the planar nature of the boundary between flat-lying and steeply dipping strata. The Ventura
Avenue fold may have acquired a configuration that is stable to continued horizontal stress if there is a zone south of the
fold along which further displacement may take place. If displacement occurs by southward sliding of the Pliocene-
Pleistocene turbidite sequence over a subjacent Miocene ductile sequence, this displacement may break through to the
surface as the Ventura Fault, as illustrated in the inset to Figure 4.13.
SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF ACTIVE FAULTS AND FOLDS
Yeats et al. (1981) suggested that flexural-slip faults of the Ventura Basin would cause ground-rupture prob
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 76
lems, but would not result in large earthquakes with major seismic shaking. These faults curve into bedding in flexural-slip
folds, and they do not extend downward into rocks of such high strength that sudden release of stored elastic strain energy
would cause a large earthquake. The 1981 Lompoc earthquake showed that flexural-slip faults are not aseismic, and Yeats
(1982) referred to them as low-shake faults. Bending-moment faults are also low-shake faults, as are at least some thrust
faults involving only the sedimentary cover.
FIGURE 4.13 North-south cross section across Ventura Avenue anticline near Ventura River, showing the 6553 m deep test
well, Shell-Taylor 653 (T-653). In inset: ORF, Oak Ridge Fault; RMF, Red Mountain Fault; VA, Ventura Avenue anticline;
VF, Ventura Fault. Oak View terrace dated as 32,000 yr before present.
But all known historical examples of bending-moment and flexural-slip faults accompany earthquakes, so if they are
low-seismic, they are also coseismic. There are no known examples of flexural-slip faults forming by creep. The Giles
Creek, New Zealand, flexural-slip faults show evidence of at least two episodes of faulting within a few thousand years,
then no evidence of additional faulting in the last 20,000 yr, despite the fact that the Grey-Inangahua Basin where they
occur produced a large earthquake in 1968. Flexural-slip faults (and perhaps bending-moment faults as well) that cut late
Quaternary deposits may be used to monitor the recurrence of stick-slip faulting on subjacent seismogenic faults that may
not cut late Quaternary deposits. The relations between coseismic flexural-slip and bending-moment faults to the
seismogenic El Asnam thrust are instructive to this point. The flexural-slip faults northeast of Santa Paula, California, may
provide information about movement on the nearby San Cayetano Fault (Figure 4.3), and the flexural-slip faults in the
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Grey-Inangahua Basin may document displacement on seismogenic reverse faults bounding the basin on the west. Finally,
the coseismic growth of the Anticline Ridge anticline during the 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake may provide
information on the recurrence interval of a subjacent seismogenic reverse fault.
An implication of the mechanical model of Davis et al. (1983) is that folds in active fold-and-thrust belts are likely to
be overpressured, and Davis et al. (1983) summarize evidence that overpressured folds exist in subaerial fold-and-thrust
belts in Taiwan and the Himalaya and in submarine accretionary wedges adjacent to the Middle America, Aleutian, and
eastern Caribbean trenches and off the coasts of Oregon and the Pakistani Makran. The Ventura Avenue anticline, in a
somewhat similar contractile environment, is perhaps the most extensively documented overpressured structure in the
world. Future oil exploration in active fold-and-thrust belts offshore and onshore should expect overpressured reservoirs
and adopt necessary techniques to prevent blowouts.
Another implication of the model of Davis et al. (1983) is that folds migrate out toward the edge of the
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ACTIVE FAULTS RELATED TO FOLDING 77
fold belt, and therefore the most frontal folds and thrusts are most likely to be still growing. Accordingly, ground rupture is
most likely in these frontal structures and less likely in those structures farther back. However, even these more internal
structures are likely to be overpressured, and changes of fluid pressure due to water flooding may produce failure, because
the tapered wedge is assumed to be on the verge of shear failure throughout (Davis et al., 1983).
Where the basal décollement in fold-and-thrust wedges is composed of material that deforms plastically, displacement
may not be accompanied by large earthquakes. Where the basal décollement yields by Coulomb friction, its ability to
produce large earthquakes may depend on the thickness of the wedge. Where the wedge is thick, very large earthquakes
may occur (Seeber et al.,1981).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
My work has been supported principally by contracts from the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program of the U.S.
Geological Survey. Work in New Zealand was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, by Grant INT-82–19897 from the
National Science Foundation, and by Oregon State University. Work in Pakistan was supported by Grant INT-81–18403
from the National Science Foundation, and my visit to Japan was sponsored by Grant EAR-83–18194 from the National
Science Foundation. R.P.Suggate reviewed an early draft to the paper.
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 80
5
Alluvial River Response to Active Tectonics
STANLEY A.SCHUMM
Colorado State University
ABSTRACT
Alluvial rivers are influenced by changes of valley floor slope, and therefore deformation of the valley floor by active tectonics
can cause pattern change, aggradation, and degradation.
Canals have been abandoned owing to uplift in Iran, and major floods and avulsive shift of the Indus River has been attributed
to earthquake-generated dams and tilting of the Indus Valley. Streams crossing the Monroe uplift in Louisiana and the Wiggins
uplift in Mississippi show pattern, gradient, and depth changes that indicate that these uplifts are active. The Mississippi River
shows effects of the Lake County and Monroe uplifts.
Slow deformation of a valley floor will eventually affect channel stability. This poses hazards to structures on or near the river
banks as well as to bridges and pipeline and powerline crossings. Navigation may be impaired, and the variability of overbank
flooding along the river can cause legal problems.
INTRODUCTION
Alluvial rivers, those that flow between banks and on a bed composed of sediment that is transported by the river, are
sensitive to changes of sediment load, water discharge, and variations of valley floor slope (Schumm, 1977). Therefore, in
addition to the dramatic effects when stream channels and terraces are offset along faults (Wallace, 1967; Stevens, 1974),
other more subtle effects should be recognizable when deformation is vertical, slower, and aseismic.
Many of the major rivers of the world follow structural lows and major geofracture systems (Potter, 1978). In fact,
Melton (1959) suspected that streams that have adjusted to tectonic activity are numerous, and the lower Mississippi River
and Rio Grande are clearly in areas of structural instability as are the lower Amazon, Niger, Tigrus, Euphrates, Rhine, and
Indus, among others. The high discharge of these rivers should permit them to maintain their courses in spite of active
tectonics. However, large rivers, because of their low gradients, may, in fact, be the most significantly affected by the
minor changes in slope caused by active deformation.
In spite of the practical significance of active tectonics, only a few investigators have considered its effects on alluvial
rivers (Tator, 1958; Schumm, 1972, 1977; Adams, 1980; Russ, 1982; Burnett and Schumm, 1983). It is possible that this
situation exists because variations of channel morphology and behavior can also be attributed to downstream variations of
discharge and to the quantity and type of sediment load; therefore, the effects of active tectonics are difficult to detect. In ad
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 81
dition, the attention of geomorphologists and photogeologists generally has been concentrated on the identification of
geologic structures that are assumed to be quiescent (Howard, 1967; Ollier, 1981, p. 180) rather than on the effect of
ongoing deformation on alluvial channels. Nevertheless, geomorphologists working in petroleum exploration, e.g.,
DeBlieux (1951, 1962) and Tator (1958), indicated that fluvial anomalies, such as local development of meanders or a
braided pattern, local widening or narrowing of channels, anomalous ponds, marshes or alluvial fills, variations of levee
width or discontinuous levees, and any anomalous curve or turn, are possible indicators of active tectonics. In addition,
active tectonics can produce nickpoints, convexities or concavities of the longitudinal profile, channel depth variations,
and, of course, either aggradation or degradation.
Another problem is that active tectonics takes several forms. Deformation can be along faults (shear, normal, or
reverse in a downstream sense) or pairs of faults (horst and graben). These faults should have the same effect as a
monocline, dome, or basin. In addition to local structural features, the entire valley may be tilted upstream, downstream, or
laterally. The possibilities are great, but, in reality, the primary effect of tectonics will be local steepening or reduction of
gradient or cross-valley tilting.
In addition to these primary influences on channel and valley gradient and configuration, there will be secondary
effects, as the rivers respond to the changed gradient (aggradation or degradation), and there will be tertiary effects, as
decreased or increased sediment loads influence reaches downstream of the deformed reach and as aggradation or
degradation in the deformed reach progresses upstream. In addition to tectonic effects, there can be similar influences as a
result of differential compaction of sediments (draping) over buried topographic highs.
TECTONIC EFFECTS
Where tectonism has been persistent for long periods of time active deformation will produce a channel response that
will be superimposed on the long-term tectonic effects. Major valley deformation or total disruption of the river system can
be the result of long-term tectonism.
Valley Change
The most commonly cited evidence for deformation is the warping of alluvial terraces in a valley. If the deformation
has persisted the oldest terrace is the most deformed by uplift (convex) or subsidence (concave), and it will show the
greatest offset by faulting (Machida, 1960; Zuchiewicz, 1979, 1980). Where there has been uplift or subsidence, terraces
are warped upward or downward, and the extent of the displacement can be determined by comparison with the
longitudinal profile of the present river if, indeed, the river has adjusted to the past deformation. Machida (1960) assumed
that the longitudinal profile of a terrace is described by a negative exponential function in a downstream direction and that
deviations from this curve indicate deformation. Valley-floor deformation can also be indicated by depth to bedrock.
Alluvium will be thickest over downfaulted or downfolded zones and thinnest over areas of uplift (Kowalski and
Radzikowska, 1968).
River Changes
When uplift is too rapid to be accommodated by a river there will be disruption of the drainage pattern (Sparling,
1967; Twidale, 1971, pp. 133–136; Ollier, 1981). For example, Freund et al. (1968) have evidence that movement along the
Dead Sea rift in Israel disrupted streams that formerly drained from Jordan and crossed what is now the Dead Sea Valley to
the Mediterranean Sea. Portions of the channels of these rivers are now displaced about 43 km as a result of movement
along the boundary faults of the Dead Sea rift. The Murray River on the Riverine Plain near Echuca (Victoria, Australia) is
an impressive example of channel modification by tectonic activity (Bowler and Harford, 1966). The Cadell Fault block
has converted the Murray River from a single channel to an anastomosing system of channels that surround the obstruction.
The abandoned segment of the Murray River is preserved on the dipslope of the fault block. A particularly active tectonic
area is the eastern side of the East African rift valley near Lake Victoria. Doornkamp and Temple (1966) described the
formation of lakes in some valleys, as a result of gradient reduction, and this could be the first stage of drainage disruption.
In many cases, incising channels will encounter resistant strata, which may retard or prevent the maintenance of an
antecedent condition. Incised meander patterns can also indicate deformation because the alluvial river pattern is affected
by the deformation before it becomes fixed by incision into bedrock (Gardner, 1975).
EVIDENCE FOR ACTIVE TECTONICS
The preceding discussion reviews evidence for past deformation but not necessarily for active tectonics. Modern river
and valley-floor morphology and geodetic
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 82
surveys provide the best geomorphic evidence of ongoing deformation.
In those areas where the rate of deformation is low, active tectonics is reflected by geomorphic features that react to
small changes of slope, for example, the gradient of terraces and stream channels and meander characteristics (Radulescu,
1962; Neef, 1966). One of the most sensitive indicators of change is the valley-floor profile and longitudinal profile of the
stream (Bendefy et al., 1967; Zuchiewicz, 1979).
Degradation and aggradation can be evidence of active tectonics, and these processes will be accompanied by changes
of channel morphology (depth and width) as the channel incises or as it aggrades. Therefore, progressive changes of
thalweg or water-surface elevation can provide information on vertical changes of the channel. When a long gaging-station
record is available, it can be used to determine water-surface change with time. When the gage height or water-surface
elevation for a specific discharge [e.g., 100 cubic feet/second (cfs)] is plotted against time, any rise or fall of the specific
gage height indicates a change of either channel capacity (area) or elevation (see Figure 5.16 below). For example, on the
axis of an active uplift both the river bottom and water surface at a given discharge should be lowered, as the channel
scours in response to increased slope (Volkov et al., 1967). When the water surface and river bottom rise through time,
either very rapid uplift or a decrease of channel capacity by aggradation can be the cause.
Channe l Patterns
Stream patterns are sensitive indicators of valley-slope change (Schumm, 1972, 1977; Schumm et al., 1972). Adams
(1980) demonstrated a relation between measured tilt rates and downstream changes of sinuosity for the Mississippi River
between St. Louis and Cairo and for the lower Missouri River. That is, in order to maintain a constant gradient a river that
is being steepened by a downstream tilt will increase its sinuosity, whereas a reduction of valley slope will lead to a
reduction of sinuosity. However, Twidale (1966) reported that both the Flinders and Leichardt Rivers have changed to a
braided pattern as a result of the steepening of their gradient by the Selwyn Upwarp in northern Queensland.
Another cause of meander growth and river shift is the lateral or transverse tilting of the valley. In general, a river
should shift in a downtilt or a downslope direction and concentrate its attack on the valley side that has been downtilted
(Cotton, 1941). Nanson (1980) showed that the south-flowing Beatton River in British Columbia is affected by isostatic tilt
to the east, which caused a deviation from the normal downstream migration of the meanders. The tilting has augmented
the easterly directed flow velocities, thereby resulting in an easterly bias to channel migration. However, although meander
loops tend to migrate toward the east, frequent channel cutoffs leave the channel close to the west wall of the valley. The
Beatton River is confined within a valley and is not free to shift laterally for an appreciable distance. This is unlike the
situation on the Hungarian Plain, where the Tiza River has shifted laterally for long distances, as a result of deformation of
the surface of the plain (Mike, 1975).
River Types
It is not possible to predict consistently the pattern and channel changes because different types of alluvial channel
will respond differently to active tectonics; therefore, the characteristics of alluvial channels must be reviewed before their
potential response can be evaluated. This can best be done by discussing a simple classification of alluvial channels that is
based on type of sediment load (bed load, mixed load, suspended load) and pattern (Figure 5.1).
Five basic channel patterns exist (Figure 5.1). These are straight channels with either migrating sand waves (pattern 1)
or with a sinuous thalweg and alternate bars (pattern 2). There are two types of meandering channels, a highly sinuous
channel of equal width (pattern 3a) and channels that are wider at bends than in crossings (pattern 3b). The meandering-
braided transition
FIGURE 5.1 Channel classification based on pattern and type of sediment load with associated variables and relative stability
indicated. From Schumm (1981).
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 83
(pattern 4) and a typical braided-stream (pattern 5) complete the sequence. The relative stability of these channels in terms
of their normal erosional activity and the shape and gradient of the channels, as related to relative sediment size, load,
velocity of flow, and stream power, are also indicated on Figure 5.1. It has been possible to develop these patterns
experimentally by varying the gradient, sediment load, stream power, and type of sediment load transported by the channel
(Schumm and Khan, 1972).
The range of channels from straight through braided forms a continuum (Figure 5.1), but experimental work and field
studies have indicated that the pattern changes between braided, meandering, and straight occur at river-pattern thresholds
(Figure 5.2). The pattern change takes place at critical ranges of valley slope, stream power, and sediment load (Schumm
and Khan, 1972).
Observed rivers can be placed within the five general categories. However, within the meandering stream group there
is considerable range of sinuosity (1.25 to 3.0), which is the ratio of channel length to valley length. In addition, in the
braided-stream category there are bar-braided and island-braided channels. Islands are vegetated bars. There are also
multiple channel patterns termed anastomosing, anastomosed, or anabranch channels (Schumm, 1977, p. 155; Smith and
Smith, 1980). In fact, it has been suggested that 14 channel patterns can be recognized (Figure 5.3).
Experimental studies and field observations confirm that a change of valley-floor slope will cause a change of channel
pattern and dimensions. The change will differ, however, depending on (1) where the channel lies on a plot such as that of
Figure 5.2, (2) the type of channel (Figures 5.1 and 5.3), and (3) the amount and rate of deformation.
FIGURE 5.2 Relation between valley (flume) slope and sinuosity (channel length/valley slope or valley slope/channel slope)
during experiments at constant discharge. Sediment load, stream power, and velocity increase with slope, and a similar relation
can be developed with these variables. From Schumm and Khan (1972).
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FIGURE 5.3 The range of alluvial channel patterns for the three channel types shown in Figure 5.1. A, Bed-load channel
patterns; B, mixed-load channel patterns; C, suspended-load channel patterns. From Schumm (1981).
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 84
Slight increases of valley slope will shift river patterns from left to right on Figures 5.2 and 5.3, as the river adjusts its
gradient by pattern change. With greater changes of valley slope, incision may produce sufficient sediment to cause a
change from one type of channel to another with a metamorphosis of a mixed-load channel to bed-load channel
(Figure 5.3). In addition, significant reductions of slope or greatly increased sediment loads will produce aggradation and
very likely a braided channel, as a result of sediment deposition.
Braided channels are the result of high bed-load transport on steep gradients or of deposition. Therefore, a braided
channel can be in equilibrium or unstable. The anastomosing pattern (pattern 14 of Figure 5.3) is still an enigma. It may be a
relatively steep gradient suspended-load channel analogous to the bed-load and mixed-load braided channels (Figure 5.3),
or it may be the suspended-load equivalent of the unstable braided channel that forms where overbank flow produces
multiple channels in a valley.
In an effort to determine the effects of active tectonics on alluvial channels experimental studies were performed by
Ouchi (1983, 1985) and Jin (1984) in a large flume (8.5 m×2.4 m), the center section of which could be raised or lowered
by hydraulic jacks. Figure 5.4 summarizes the results for braided and meandering channels during uplift and downwarping.
Because the braided channel could not change its pattern, as a result of uplift, it degraded forming terraces. The sediment
produced by the incision caused aggradation downstream, and the reduced gradient upstream also caused aggradation.
During downwarping the experimental braided channel degraded in the upper steepened reach, and it aggraded
downstream. Adjustment was much slower during subsidence because during uplift channel incision is concentrated in a
channel, whereas adjustment by aggradation requires deposition not only in the channel but over the valley floor. The
aggradation in zones B and C reduced downstream sediment loads and induced degradation in zone D (Figure 5.4).
Adjustment of the meandering channel was as expected with increased overbank flooding upstream and an increase of
sinuosity on the steeper reaches during uplift. Jin's (1984) results also show clearly the meandering-channel response to
uplift (Figure 5.5).
Note that in each case (Figure 5.4) the secondary response to the primary deformation causes tertiary effects in zones A
and D both upstream and downstream of the zones of deformation (B and C). Figure 5.4 is presented to illustrate the
complexity of the channel response to active tectonics. In each case if the experiment had continued without further
deformation there would be additional channel adjustment. For example, in the uplift experiments degradation, which was
concentrated at the axis of uplift (Figure 5.4), would have extended upstream to at least the boundary between zones A and
B.
FIGURE 5.4 Effect of uplift and subsidence on braided and meandering experimental channels. Zones of active deformation
(B, C) are separated by the axis of deformation. Zone A upstream and Zone D downstream from the zones of active
deformation show tertiary effects of valley slope change. The position of the descriptive term indicates generally where the
process or channel form is present. Modified from Ouchi (1983).
Alluvial channels are sensitive indicators of change. However, they adjust to changes of hydrology and sediment load
as well as to active tectonics. Therefore, it may be difficult to determine the cause of channel change because man's
activities and climatic variations both act to alter discharge and sediment load during historic time. Channel pattern change
alone is not sufficient evidence for active tectonics, rather it is one bit of
FIGURE 5.5 Meandering channel pattern change, as a result of uplift in center of figure. A shows meandering channel
developed after 400-h run time, B shows effect of uplift on this 3.5-m reach of experimental channel after an additional 100 h.
Upstream reach shows evidence of overbank flooding, development of multiple channels, and aggradation. Downstream reach
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shows increase of meander amplitude, wavelength, and sinuosity as well as degradation and a cutoff. Flow is from left to right.
Stippled pattern represents sand on floodplain. Vertical-line pattern represents silt and clay deposits on floodplain. From Jin
(1984).
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 85
evidence that must be supported with other morphologic evidence of aggradation, degradation, or survey data. In many
areas the evidence will be circumstantial. Nevertheless, anomalous reaches that are not related to artificial controls or to
tributary influences may reasonably be assumed to be the result of active tectonics.
EXAMPLES
Examples from the Near East, Pakistan, and the lower Mississippi Valley illustrate the impact of active tectonics on
the effective utilization of rivers and canals.
Near East
Where man has built long-lasting structures, active-tectonic effects are recorded by displacement of these features. For
example, in the southeastern corner of Iran, the Shaurn anticline forms a range of low hills. Folding began in late Pliocene,
and it still continues (Ambraseys, 1978). In the first or second century A.D. two canals were cut across the anticline in
order to lead water from a canal system on the northeast flank to the more extensive and fertile plains on the southwest.
These channels afford a unique opportunity for measuring the uplift of the anticlines since the canals were built. One canal
still carries water, but, where it crosses the anticline it has cut down about 3.5 m below its original bed. The other canal has
been abandoned. An accurate survey along its alignment shows that, along the anticlinal axis, the bed of the canal has risen
at an average rate of approximately 1 m per century (Lees, 1955).
In the Tigrus and Euphrates Valley, where there is active tectonics (Lees, 1955; Adams, 1965; Mirjayar, 1966), canals
have also been abandoned. They show reversed gradients and incision.
Indus Valley
There are numerous active faults in the Indus Valley (Kazmi, 1979). The most spectacular effect of active faulting is
due to the Rann of Cutch Fault zone in the lower Indus Valley. In 1819 a severe earthquake resulted in the 6-m uplift of a
16-km-wide and 81-km-long tract of alluvial land. This feature was locally known as Alah Bund (Oldham, 1926), and it
blocked an eastern branch of the Indus River. The channel at that time was dry, but flow was re-established during a flood
in 1828.
Lyell (1857, p. 462) stated that “for several years after the convulsion of 1819, the course of the Indus was very
unsettled, and at length, in 1826, the river threw a vast body of water into its eastern arm, forcing its way in a more direct
course to the sea, burst through all the artificial barriers that had been thrown across the channel, and at length cut right
through the Alah Bund.” For discussion of recent history of the Indus see Holmes (1968), and for an interesting hypothesis
concerning the decline of an Indus civilization see Dales (1966), who suggested that one ancient Indus valley city
(Mohenjodaro) was flooded as a result of major tectonic activity forming a dam in the Indus Valley. This is possible as a
result of valley-floor warping, but not as the result of a major natural alluvial dam (Lambrick, 1967). Finally, the westward
shift of the Indus River during the last few thousand years suggests major avulsive changes owing to westward tilting of the
Indus River valley (Wilhelmy, 1969).
Mississippi Valley
Lake County Uplift The great 1811–1812 earthquakes near New Madrid, Missouri, have created considerable concern
about the possibility of a recurrence. Therefore, extensive studies have been carried out in this area, and the literature
relating to the geophysics and geology of the Mississippi Embayment between Memphis and Cairo is abundant (McKeown
and Pakiser, 1982).
The area of deformation near New Madrid is referred to as the Lake County Uplift (Figure 5.6). The surface of the
uplift is as much as 10 m above the general level of the Mississippi River Valley. The deformed area has a maximum length
of about 50 km and a maximum width of about 23 km. Its relief is uneven, and the surface is dominated by two elongated
bulges.
The Lake County Uplift consists of part of four different geomorphic surfaces, the modern Mississippi meander belt
and three separate Mississippi River braided-stream terraces. Lateral migration of the Mississippi River during and
following the most active periods of deformation has eroded a considerable amount of the uplifted surface. During great
floods of the past, the as yet uneroded portions of the Lake County Uplift existed as islands on the Mississippi River
alluvial plain.
Russ (1982) cited the following evidence of active deformation of the Lake County Uplift: (1) profiles of the Lake
County Uplift reveal that the structure is significantly higher than the natural occurring landforms of the modern meander
belt (Figure 5.7A); (2) the longitudinal profiles of abandoned river channels and natural levees have been significantly
warped, some to the extent that the original river flow direction has been reversed; (3) the modern floodplain is also warped
(Figure 5.7B); and (4) the Reelfoot scarp vertically offsets abandoned Mississippi River channels, which once flowed
across the area.
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A, Natural-levee profile and low-water profiles; B, floodplain profile. From Russ (1982).
FIGURE 5.6 Map of New Madrid region showing the Lake County Uplift. From Russ (1982).
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FIGURE 5.7 Longitudinal profiles between Mississippi River miles 845 to 930. Locations are shown on Figures 5.6 and 5.8.
86
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 87
An examination of Figure 5.7 reveals that all the profiles have a similar shape, suggesting that they may be the result
of the same events. The profiles are convex upward, a configuration that is commonly associated with uplift, and Russ
(1982) concluded that this shape may be due to recent and even current deformation. Russ also stated that several aspects
of the meander pattern of the Mississippi River suggest control by tectonic processes. Above the uplift axis, between Cairo,
Illinois, and Hickman, Kentucky, the river is currently relatively straight. From Hickman south to Arkansas, however, it is
sinuous (Figure 5.8). It is possible that the river straightened its course to increase its gradient in an area where tilting is
reducing it, whereas downstream the high sinuosity reflects steepening (Figures 5.2 and 5.3). The river is constrained by the
topographically high Sikeston Ridge to the north and the Tiptonville Dome to the south.
The position of the Mississippi River course within its meander belt also suggests the possibility of tectonic influence.
Between Cairo, Illinois, and Hickman, Kentucky, and in general between Blytheville, Arkansas, and Memphis, Tennessee,
the river flows along the eastern edge of its meander belt (Figure 5.8). However, between Hickman and Blytheville the
river shifts to the west. It is conceivable that the river has been deflected to the west as a result of the uplift. However, old
maps indicate that the position of the river in 1765 is similar to that of today. Thus, any significant tectonic deflection must
have occurred before 1765.
FIGURE 5.8 Map of Mississippi Valley between Memphis, Tennessee, and Cairo, Illinois.
The effect of the New Madrid earthquake on the Mississippi River provides an extreme example of the tertiary effects
of active tectonics on a major river during a long period of time. For example, Walters and Simons (1984) studied the
history of the river, and they summarized as follows: From 1765 to the winter of 1811–1812 the lower Mississippi was a
graded river, and there were four neck cutoffs during that period. Beginning on December 16, 1811, and continuing
intermittently through February 1812, the New Madrid earthquake shocks caused bank caving, which introduced
tremendous quantities of sediment into the channel. The most severe caving occurred in the reach from the confluence of
the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers to below Blytheville, Arkansas (Figure 5.8). The increased sediment load caused excessive
shoaling, enlargement of islands, and at some locations new islands and point bars were formed. During the years following
the earthquake (1818–1874), the sediment began to move gradually downstream. This increase in sediment load caused
reduction in meandering, and the number of cutoffs doubled. From 1875 to 1932 the number of neck cutoffs decreased.
Above Osceola the introduction of sediment was almost instantaneous, and the response was the formation of a wider
aggrading channel. Below Osceola the response was a steepening of the gradient by meander cutoffs and sinuosity
reduction.
From the examination of gaging-station records and especially specific-gage relations, Walters and Simons (1984)
concluded that the lower Mississippi River channel from above New Madrid, Missouri, to Red River Landing, Louisiana,
was aggrading after about 1880, perhaps as a result of the sediment introduced by the New Madrid earthquakes.
Monroe Uplift The Monroe Uplift, the extent of which is defined by deformed Cretaceous and Tertiary strata, is a
dome approximately 120 km in diameter. It is situated mostly in northeastern Louisiana (Figure 5.9), but it extends into
southeastern Arkansas and west central Mississippi (Wang, 1952). Its eastern-most extension includes the Mississippi
River between Greenville and Vicksburg.
Geologic evidence that the Monroe Uplift was active since the Tertiary has been presented by several authors. Veatch
(1906) discussed the existence of two active linear structures, which pass through the uplift. He further claimed that recent
movement along the west end of the flexure has resulted in the formation of a series of shoals
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on the Sabine and Angelina Rivers and swamping of an area in the Angelina River Valley in eastern Texas.
FIGURE 5.9 Index map showing location of Monroe (M) and Wiggins (W) Uplifts.
FIGURE 5.10 Index map of Monroe Uplift. From Burnett and Schumm (1983).
The uplift consists of the Boeuf and Tensas Basins as well as Macon Ridge and the Mississippi River from mile 450 to
530. The basins are composed of large back-swamp areas crossed by several old Arkansas River channels with well-
developed natural levees. Macon Ridge in the center of the uplift is composed of five mid-Wisconsin glacial outwash
terraces (Saucier and Fleetwood, 1970), which form a narrow, north-south trending, elongated area of high ground.
Several streams—Ouachita River, Bayou Bartholomew, Boeuf River, Big-Colewa Creek, Bayou Macon, and Deer
Creek (Figure 5.10)—that cross the Monroe Uplift in northeastern Louisiana and generally parallel the Mississippi River
were studied by Burnett (1982). They flow generally to the southwest across the uplift, and they locally occupy old
abandoned courses of the Arkansas River.
The Mississippi River has a highly irregular thalweg profile through the Monroe Uplift (Winkley, 1980). The thalweg
slope is significantly reduced or even reversed in part of the uplift zone. At river mile 485, the mean thalweg slope is
í0.00004, but it increases downstream to +0.0001. This suggests that deformation is occurring and that it is affecting a
major river.
Evidence of recent surface movement on the Monroe Uplift is indicated by precise geodetic surveys. The geodetic
surveys do not cross the uplift axis, but they suggest uplift of the southern part of the area between 1934 and 1966 (Burnett,
1982). The longitudinal profiles of Pleistocene and Holocene terraces show convexities, which are due to uplift. If the
Monroe Uplift is still active today, the modern stream and valley-floor profiles should exhibit the effects of the uplift
the authoritative version for attribution.
similar to those shown by terrace profiles. Indeed, valley profiles of the Monroe Uplift streams shows an obvious zone of
upward convexity (Figure 5.11).
Comparing the amounts of vertical deformation of the terraces and floodplains in the Monroe Uplift area to their ages
of formation provides a means of estimating contemporary rates of uplift in this area. By this method, the convexity in the
oldest and highest Macon Ridge terrace profile (Qtb1) indicates that about 3.8 m of vertical deformation has occurred at the
uplift axis since this terrace was formed (Figure 5.11). Saucier (1970) estimated the age of this terrace to be 33,000 yr old.
Therefore, the maximum rate of uplift is estimated to be about 1.0 mm per year during the last 33,000 yr. For the other
profiles the rates vary from 0.01 to 1.4 mm/yr.
Sinuosity for the five rivers is plotted with reference to
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 89
the position of the uplift axis (Figure 5.12). In each case sinuosity increases as the axis is approached or crossed. Where
sinuosity is high above the axis, there is a decrease of sinuosity as the axis is approached (Bayou Bartholomew). The results
are as suggested by Figures 5.2 and 5.3.
FIGURE 5.11 Longitudinal valley profiles of streams crossing the Monroe Uplift, and Macon Ridge, which is a remnant of a
Pleistocene Mississippi River terrace. From Burnett and Schumm (1983).
To examine the variability of the channel-bed elevation and also changes in the bank height along the streams that
cross the Monroe Uplift, channel thalweg elevations were plotted in relation to the valley distance along Boeuf River and
Big Colewa Creek (Figure 5.13). These projected channel profiles are not affected by changes in sinuosity because the
thalweg elevation (or low water elevation) at a given location is plotted with reference to valley distance rather than
channel distance (Burnett, 1982).
In Figure 5.13, the difference in the elevation of the projected channel profile and that of the valley profile at a given
location represents the depth of the channel below the valley surface at that location. The reaches with large differences in
elevation between the valley surface and channel (high banks) are those where the channel has downcut or degraded. Also,
where average bank height is small the channel has not degraded, or it has, in fact, aggraded. The projected channel profiles
do not parallel the valley profiles, indicating that varying amounts of degradation or aggradation have occurred along the
channel. The Boeuf River has apparently compensated for the uplift, but the Big Colewa Creek profile contains a major
convexity (Figure 5.13). At the axis of the uplift and in the downvalley zone of the uplift, the average bank heights are, in
general, high (11 to 13 m for the Boeuf River and 6 m for Big Colewa Creek). These observations indicate that degradation
has occurred at and below the uplift axis, but above the axis
FIGURE 5.13 Valley and projected-channel profiles of
FIGURE 5.12 Variations of sinuosity along six streams
Boeuf River and Big Colewa Creek. From Burnett (1982).
crossing the Monroe Uplift. Distance above and below
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uplift axis is shown. Downstream is to the right. Arrows
indicate axis of uplift, and cross hatching shows zones of
modern uplift. From Burnett (1982).
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 90
degradation has yet to affect the profile of Big Colewa Creek.
FIGURE 5.15 Vertical benchmark movement along a
National Geodetic Survey route between Jackson,
Mississippi, and New Orleans, Louisiana. From Brown and
Oliver (1976) with permission of the American
Geophysical Union.
FIGURE 5.14 Effect of Monroe Uplift on Big Colewa
Creek. A, Change of channel depth. Three reaches show
different degrees of response to uplift. B, Change of
channel gradient and slope of valley floor. C, Change of
sinuosity. From Burnett and Schumm (1983).
The Big Colewa Creek channel can be used to summarize the effect of uplift on an alluvial channel. It can be divided
into three zones of activity along its valley (Figure 5.14A). The lower zone, from the mouth to valley km 32, has a high
average bank height of about 6 m. The middle zone, from valley km 32 to 65, shows a clear upstream decrease in the
average bank height from 6 to 2 m. The upper zone, above valley km 65, has a constant low average bank height of 2 m.
Degradation may have occurred in the lower zone, whereas entrenchment is still in progress in the middle zone, and in the
upper zone entrenchment has not yet occurred.
Figure 5.14B shows changes in valley slope and channel thalweg slope with valley distance. The valley slope remains
high from the mouth to valley km 40, and then it suddenly decreases. The break in slope, at valley km 40, defines the
apparent location of the uplift axis. The thalweg slope is high from the mouth to valley km 55, and then it also suddenly
decreases. The fact that the two curves do not coincide suggests that the channel has incised through the axis of uplift.
Sinuosity is approximately 1.2 in the upstream stretch of Big Colewa Creek (Figure 5.14C). Downstream between
valley km 50 and 55, sinuosity increases to about 1.7, and then it gradually decreases to 1.5 at the mouth.
In summary, numerous relations between the morphology of the streams and terraces and the underlying Cretaceous
and Tertiary structures of the Monroe Uplift indicate that the area is still active tectonically. The patterns of changes and the
present stream morphology provide information on the response of streams to active uplift within their valleys.
Wiggins Uplift In contrast to the Monroe Uplift, active displacement of the Wiggins Uplift (Figure 5.9) is clearly
displayed by geodetic surveys (Figure 5.15). Bogue Homo Creek is analogous to Big Colewa Creek in this area, and it
displays similar morphologic differences. Above the axis of uplift the channel is anastomosing, and the main channel is
relatively straight. Immediately below the axis the channel has incised below the former floodplain to form a low terrace,
and sinuosity is higher. Numerous cutoffs have occurred, and locally braided reaches have developed as a result of
increased sediment loads resulting from incision.
A gaging station on Tallahala Creek provides evidence of channel incision at an average rate of 12 mm/yr since 1940
(Figure 5.16). This is three times the rate of measured uplift; however, a channel probably adjusts episodically to
continuous uplift (Ouchi, 1983).
A factor that makes comparison of channel behavior
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 91
difficult is the size or the energy of the channel. Small channels such as Big Colewa Creek and Bogue Homo Creek have
been unable to keep pace and incise across the uplift axis. Streams of intermediate size such as Tallahala Creek have incised
across the axis, but their long profile still shows a convexity. Large rivers such as the Pearl River (19,900 km3) have been
able to keep pace with the uplift, and its projected-channel profile is relatively straight, although terraces and the valley
floor are deformed (Figure 5.17). Above the axis of uplift the Pearl River is not anastomosing, but it has developed a new
floodplain below the axis of uplift, and the former floodplain is a low terrace.
FIGURE 5.16 Specific gage plot for Tallahala River near Runnels-town, Mississippi. The water-surface elevation was
determined for a specific discharge of 78 cfs for each year of record. This discharge is base flow and reflects change of bed
elevation. From Burnett and Schumm (1983).
Changes of channel morphology can frequently be attributed to tributary contributions of water discharge and
sediment load, but on the Monroe and Wiggins Uplifts, the patterns of channel change are related to active tectonic
deformation of the alluvial valley of streams crossing the uplifts (Burnett, 1982).
FIGURE 5.17 Longitudinal profiles of terraces and floodplain and a projected-channel profile of the Pearl River, a major river
crossing the Wiggins Uplift. A projected-channel profile is a plot of channel-bed elevation against valley distance, which
eliminates the effect of sinuosity of the channel long profile. From Burnett and Schumm (1983).
Mississippi River In the preceding discussion of the Mississippi River Valley, three areas of active tectonics have been
identified, the Lake County Uplift, the Monroe Uplift, and the Wiggins Uplift. Russ (1982) demonstrated an effect of the
Lake County Uplift on the Mississippi River gradient and pattern. Maps (Fisk, 1944) of the old Mississippi River meander
courses show that the Mississippi River has maintained very high sinuosity values in this area during the last 2000 to 6000
yr (Figure 5.18).
Winkley (1980) discussed the possible effects of the Monroe Uplift on the past and present morphology of the
Mississippi River in the vicinity of Greenville Bridge (mile 531.3), where the Monroe Uplift has exposed Tertiary bedrock
in the Mississippi River channel near Greenville. Meander loops have grown and cut off at the same location several times,
and the sinuosity has been consistently high near Greenville (Figure 5.18). In this sinuous zone, the Mississippi River has
shifted laterally across the Yazoo Clay, being unable to cut through it. Watson et al. (1984) suggested that the Wiggins
Uplift has increased sinuosity farther south near Natchez (Figure 5.18).
As the average slope of the Mississippi River low-water surface is about 56 mm per river kilometer, with even slow
uplift rates of from 3 to 5 mm/yr the effects on this great river can be significant. Studies are under way to determine the
extent of the effects of active tectonics on this major commercial artery. Obviously if there is a significant influence on the
river, it will have implications for navigation, flood control, and the taxpayer.
SIGNIFICANCE
Some alluvial rivers are currently adjusting to active tectonics, and this must be considered as an additional
explanation for river instability. Furthermore, geomorphic studies provide independent support for the results of the
National Geodetic Survey resurveys because river response to uplift conforms to that expected from field and experimental
studies of river morphology elsewhere.
As noted above, active tectonics can be responsible for aggradation, degradation, channel avulsion, and pattern
change, both downstream and upstream of the deformed reach. Therefore, the net result of active tectonics is unstable river
the authoritative version for attribution.
reaches that are characterized by incision, deposition, bank erosion, meander cutoffs, or the development of meandering,
braided, or anastomosing patterns (Figure 5.4).
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FIGURE 5.18 Variations of Mississippi River sinuosity below Cairo, Illinois, as determined from maps prepared in 1764,
1820–1830, 1881–1893, and 1930–1932. Note consistently high values of sinuosity in reaches affected by Lake County Uplift
(Cairo, Illinois-Caruthersville, Missouri); Monroe Uplift (Greenville, Mississippi); and Wiggins Uplift (?) below Natchez,
Mississippi. From Schumm et al. (1982).
Navigation can be affected by aggradation and the development of bars. Bank erosion, incision, and pattern change can
impact riparian use and cause loss of valuable structures (bridges, loading docks) as well as agricultural land and homes.
The frequency of overbank flooding will be increased in reaches of aggradation and reduced gradient. Changes in the
frequency of overbank flooding through a zone of active tectonics will change the position of “ordinary high water,” which
is usually a legal boundary, and this may lead to confusion and litigation concerning the location of the river bank.
If rivers are affected by active tectonics then obviously canals will be. Canals are usually constructed to carry
relatively clear water on gentle slopes. As in the Middle East, a slight warping can seriously affect the efficiency of the
canal (Leary et al., 1981).
The evidence of river response to active tectonics can be used to evaluate the tectonic stability of hazardous waste-
disposal sites. For example, in addition to the criteria presented earlier, studies of salt domes in eastern Texas suggest that
the Oakwood Salt Dome may be active because channels on the central dome are incised up to 4 m, and there are three
abandoned channel reaches that suggest lateral movement of the channels away from the dome (Collins et al., 1981).
Furthermore, as in the past, fluvial evidence can be used to identify those areas most favorable for exploration for gas and
oil. The geomorphic techniques can be used to aid in planning geophysical surveys and the selection of drilling sites.
Active tectonics in some areas has had a disastrous effect. Earthquakes in the upper Indus Basin have triggered
massive landslides that impounded vast amounts of water that eventually overtopped the natural dam and caused
catastrophic flooding downstream. In addition, valley-floor deformation could lead to major avulsive shifts of a river. The
effects discussed herein are primarily related to aseismic deformation, but it is this slow deformation that has been ignored
when river behavior is studied. Clearly more detailed studies of the effects of active tectonics on alluvial rivers are needed
to establish the within-channel hydraulic changes that can be expected and the engineering response that is required to
mitigate the detrimental effects on river stability and use.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The field work was carried out by Adam Burnett in Louisiana and Mississippi and was performed under research
grants from the National Science Foundation (EAR-7727573) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Potamology
Division, Vicksburg. I thank Larry Lattman and David Russ for their helpful reviews.
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ALLUVIAL RIVER RESPONSE TO ACTIVE TECTONICS 94
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COASTAL TECTONICS 95
6
Coastal Tectonics
KENNETH R.LAJOIE
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park
INTRODUCTION
Between one-third and one-half of the Earth's marine coastlines lie along or near tectonically and seismically active
plate boundaries (Inman and Nordstrom, 1971). Many of the world's major population centers lie along these active
coastlines and, therefore, are vulnerable to adverse impacts of large earthquakes. Fortunately, there has been remarkable
progress over the past two decades in the field of coastal tectonics, the study of recent crustal deformation and
paleoseismicity in coastal regions. Of particular importance is progress in establishing earthquake recurrence, dating recent
fault activity, and measuring rates of recent crustal deformation, all of which are crucial in determining earthquake
potential and assessing seismic hazards and risk. Much of the recent progress in coastal tectonics stems directly from the
development of new dating techniques that have led to a better understanding of Quaternary [past 2 million years (m.y.)]
sea-level fluctuations and their relationship to marine strandlines (abandoned or relict marine shorelines), which are among
the most numerous and widespread tectonic markers in the Quaternary geomorphic record (Figures 6.1, 6.2, and 6.3).
Sea level is the common and unifying element of coastal tectonics. Present sea level, the universal datum for
measuring elevation, is the most convenient reference for detecting ongoing vertical crustal movement and assessing
short-term tectonic stability in coastal areas. Accordingly, coastal tectonics often includes analysis of tide-gauge data
(Figure 6.4) and other historical and archeological information that might reveal apparent sea-level changes. Past sea levels
derived from the geologic record comprise a composite datum for measuring long-term crustal movement. Consequently,
coastal tectonics also includes mapping and dating marine strandlines and separating the vertical crustal movements from
the past sea-level fluctuations they si
FIGURE 6.1 Emergent marine strandlines form steplike terraces on the Palos Verdes Peninsula of southern California. These
and similar strandlines on technically active coastlines record both crustal uplift and major glacio-eustatic sea-level fluctuations
(see Figure 6.6). The lowest strandline terrace is about 100 ka and the highest is about 1000 ka. The highest point on the
peninsula is about 450 m above sea level. Modified from Davidson (1889).
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COASTAL TECTONICS 96
multaneously record. Because marine strandlines are the physical records of past sea levels, the study of sea-level history is
an integral part of coastal tectonics.
Time-transgressive sequences of displaced and deformed Pleistocene [2 m.y. to 10,000 yr (10 ka) ago] marine
strandlines document patterns of and, where dated, yield rates of continual, long-term crustal deformation (Figures 6.1 and
6.2). Sequences of emergent Holocene (past 10 ka) strandlines (Figure 6.3), which occur only along the most rapidly
uplifting coastlines, commonly record abrupt coseismic uplift events of 1–15 m (see Figures 6.25–6.28 below) that
cumulatively comprise the long-term deformation recorded by Pleistocene strandlines. Consequently, sequences of
Holocene strandlines often record past earthquakes and, where dated, yield earthquake periodicity and provide a means of
forecasting future seismic events. In many areas, apparent sea-level changes documented by tide-gauge records (Figure 6.4)
or subtle shifts in the location of the modern shoreline reflect ongoing vertical crustal movement. Frequently, this
movement is opposite in sense to long-term trends and, therefore, may represent postearthquake crustal relaxation or pre-
earthquake strain accumulation.
Coastal tectonics includes the study of both onshore (emergent) and offshore (submergent) marine strandlines and
structural features. However, offshore coastal tectonics is a highly specialized field and is beyond the scope of this brief
review, which focuses mainly on the formation and deformation of emergent marine strandlines and stresses their
importance in determining the style and measuring the rates of recent crustal deformation, especially in highly active
coastal regions. Most examples of strandline displacement and deformation cited in this review reflect sustained tectonic
processes, but a few, included mainly for comparative purposes, reflect transitory volcanic and glacio-isostatic crustal
deformation.
COASTAL MORPHOLOGY AND TECTONIC SETTING
On global and regional scales coastal morphology correlates closely with tectonic setting (Inman and Nordstrom,
1971). The greatest geomorphic contrast is between the subdued coastlines along passive continental margins and the
rugged coastlines along convergent plate boundaries. Along most coastlines modern (active) coastal landforms are similar
to their Pleistocene counterparts, which suggests that current tectonic and coastal processes have been fairly uniform over
considerable periods of time.
Most exposed coastlines along passive continental
FIGURE 6.2 Cross-sectional profiles of emergent Pleistocene strandline terraces.
A, Erosional strandlines near Santa Cruz, California. Solid line is existing topographic profile. Dashed line represents original
profile of each strandline terrace, which consists of a relict wave-cut platform backed by a relict sea cliff. The intersection of
the platform and the sea cliff is the shoreline angle, which closely approximates the paleoshoreline. Seaward thinning wedges
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of alluvial sediment derived from the degrading sea cliffs overlie the wave-cut platforms. A 120-ka strandline was removed
from this section when the next lower (104 ka) platform was cut; the 120-ka strandline occurs a few kilometers north of this
site and is projected onto this cross section. The three lowest strandlines were dated by paleontological, amino acid, and
geomorphic techniques. The average uplift rate (0.35 m/ka) was derived from the vertical displacement (28 m) of the 82-ka
strandline. The three highest strandlines were dated by extrapolation of this uplift rate and by numerical analysis of the
progressively gentler slopes of successively higher (older) relict sea cliffs. Modified from Hanks et al. (1984).
B, Depositional strandline terraces on the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea. Each platform is a relict coral reef. U-series
dates on fossil corals from these strandlines yield a history of glacio-eustatic fluctuations that serves as a tectonic datum for
measuring vertical tectonic movements on other coastlines throughout the world (see Figure 6.6). The maximum average uplift
rate of 4 m/ka on the Huon Peninsula was derived from the maximum vertical displacement (500 m) of the 120-ka strandline.
Note that the three lowest strandlines on the Santa Cruz coastline correlate with the three highest strandlines in this sequence.
Modified from Chappell (1974a).
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COASTAL TECTONICS 97
margins consist of broad coastal plains bordered offshore by wide continental shelves and gentle continental slopes. These
relatively stable coastlines are characterized by depositional landforms such as broad sandy beaches and offshore barrier
bars and at low latitudes by broad coral reefs. The southeast coast of North America and the northeast coast of Australia are
typical passive-margin coastlines with low-to-moderate topographic relief and subdued depositional landforms. Much of
the former is bordered offshore by barrier bars (Oaks and Du Bar, 1974), and most of the latter by extensive coral reefs
(Hopley, 1983).
FIGURE 6.3 Cross-sectional profiles of Holocene
strandlines.
A, Erosional terraces on the Boso Peninsula of Honshu,
Japan. These strandlines, unlike their Pleistocene
counterparts, represent periodic coseismic uplift events,
not sea-level fluctuations (see Figures 6.7, 6.25, 6.26, 6.27,
and 6.28). The lowest platform (IV) records uplift that
accompanied two major earthquakes in 1703 and 1923, and FIGURE 6.4 Tide-gauge records.
the three highest strandlines were dated by radiocarbon
A, San Francisco, California—the secular drift of this
analysis of fossil shells. The average uplift rate is 3.9 m/ka
record (~2 mm/yr) is similar to that found in other parts of
(see Figure 6.25). Modified from Matsuda et al. (1978).
the world and, therefore, probably represents eustatic rise
B, Depositional strandlines (beach ridges) at Te Araroa on in sea level.
North Island, New Zealand. Each ridge most likely B, Juneau, Alaska—the extreme apparent drop in sea-level
represents a storm event not a coseismic uplift event. If represents crustal uplift due to either tectonic uplift or
uplift events are recorded in this sequence of strandlines, residual glacio-eustatic rebound.
they are indistinguishable from storm events. The average C, Mississippi delta—the apparent rise in sea-level
uplift rate derived from the highest beach ridge (6 ka) is 1
represents subsidence due to sediment compaction and
m/ka. Modified from Garrick (1979).
isostatic adjustments of the crust to the sediment load of
the Mississippi delta. The eustatic rise (2 mm/yr) was
subtracted from the relative rates to obtain the uplift and
subsidence rates. Modified from Hicks and Crosby (1974).
Long-term tectonic stability along most passive-margin coastlines is expressed stratigraphically by undeformed
continental and marine sediments that underlie flat coastal plains and continental shelves and geomorphically by broad
accretionary strandline terraces that consist of subdued beach ridges separated by abandoned tidal flats (Oaks and Du Bar,
1974). However, rapid sediment accumulation, such as at the mouth of a large river, may isostatically depress an otherwise
stable passive-margin coastline (Figure 6.4C) (Fisk and McFarlan, 1955; Hicks and Crosby, 1974). Also, occasional large
earthquakes, such as the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, seismic event on the Atlantic coast of North America (Hays and
Gori, 1983), indicate that passive continental margins are not completely aseismic, even though there is little stratigraphic
or geomorphic evidence in these areas of recent, near-surface crustal deformation.
In contrast to the subdued coastlines along passive plate boundaries, most coastlines along or near active continental
margins consist of coastal hills or mountains bordered offshore by narrow continental shelves and
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COASTAL TECTONICS 98
deep submarine trenches, particularly in the circum-Pacific region. These tectonically active coastlines are characterized by
rugged erosional landforms such as steep sea cliffs and rocky headlands, islands and sea stacks. However, at low latitudes
coral reefs commonly form narrow depositional platforms even along rugged coastlines (Figure 6.2B)(Chappell, 1974a).
The mountainous west coast of South America is an active-tectonic coastline that geomorphically reflects regional crustal
uplift and subsidence related to rapid plate convergence and resultant subduction along the offshore Peru-Chile Trench
(Plafker, 1972). The hilly-to-mountainous coast of California in western North America is an active-tectonic coastline that
geomorphically reflects slower regional uplift and local basin subsidence related to oblique plate convergence and resultant
large-scale, right-lateral displacement across the San Andreas Fault system.
Long-term crustal instability along most active-tectonic coastlines is expressed stratigraphically by folded and faulted
marine sediments that fill youthful structural basins and geomorphically by narrow uplifted and deformed Pleistocene
strandline terraces that notch steep coastal slopes (Figures 6.1 and 6.2). Short-term instability along extremely active
coastlines is expressed geomorphically by emergent Holocene strandline terraces (Figure 6.3) and by dramatic changes in
the location and configuration of modern shorelines that result from rapid vertical crustal movements (Figure 6.4). Most of
the Earth's seismicity occurs along or near active-tectonic coastlines (Tarr, 1974), and many large earthquakes in these
areas are recorded geomorphically by emergent Holocene strandline terraces (Figure 6.3A; also see Figures 6.25–6.28
below).
The subdued coastlines bordering the shallow epicontinental seas in North America (Hudson Bay) and Fennoscandia
(Bay of Bothnia) are exceptions to the general rule that coastal regions undergoing rapid crustal deformation are
characterized by marked topographic relief. However, the rapid crustal uplift recorded so dramatically by sequences of
highly emergent Holocene strandlines in these recently deglaciated areas reflects transitory isostatic rebound (see
Figure 6.10 below) not sustained tectonic deformation.
MARINE STRANDLINES
Marine strandlines are the geological and historical records of former sea levels. In the geologic record marine
strandlines are the depositional and erosional remains of abandoned marine shorelines (Figures 6.1, 6.2 and 6.3), and in the
historical record they are most commonly tide-gauge measurements (Figure 6.4) or high-water marks on man-made coastal
structures.
A strandline, or a sequence of strandlines, is a relative sea-level record that potentially represents both real and
apparent sea-level changes (Figure 6.5):
(6.1)
Real sea-level changes are absolute vertical movements of the ocean's surface and may be local to worldwide in
extent; if worldwide, they are called eustatic changes.
FIGURE 6.5 Relative, apparent, and real sea-level changes.
A, Late Pleistocene.
B, Holocene.
All sea-level records (strandlines or tide-gauge measurements) are relative, which means they potentially represent both
apparent and real sea-level changes (relative=real +apparent). Apparent sea-level changes are the inverse of the vertical
crustal (or ground) movements that produce them and, therefore, are the focus of all coastal tectonic studies. The apparent sea-
level history is obtained by algebraically or graphically subtracting the real sea-level history from the relative record of marine
strandlines. In effect, the real sea-level history is a composite tectonic datum. The real sea-level history is obtained by
subtracting apparent sea level changes from a relative sea-level record. In this case, the uplifting coastline is a moving sea-
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level datum. E is the present elevation of a strandline; e is the original elevation of a strandline; D is the vertical displacement
(D=Eíe); A is the age of a strandline; R is the crustal displacement rate (R=D/A).
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COASTAL TECTONICS 99
Quaternary sea-level history was characterized by periodic eustatic fluctuations of 100–150 m caused by the advance and
retreat of continental glaciers. Apparent sea-level changes are not real but result from and are the inverse of vertical ground
movements. Consequently, apparent sea-level changes are only local or regional in extent.
FIGURE 6.6 Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations and origin of emergent Pleistocene strandlines. Emergent strandlines
simultaneously record tectonic uplift and major sea-level highstands. The rising coastline is a moving strip chart on which sea-
level highstands are recorded sequentially as strandlines whose ages increase with elevation. The slope (R) of the diagonal line
connecting each highstand to the elevation of its strandline is the average uplift rate. If the uplift rate was constant, the uplift
lines for all strandlines are parallel. Strandlines formed during lowstands are usually destroyed by subsequent sea-level
fluctuations and rarely appear in the emergent geologic record. Strandlines younger than 60 ka appear above sea level only
where the uplift rate is greater than 1 m/ka. The sea-level fluctuation curve was derived from a sequence of U-series dated
coral-reef strandlines on the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea (Figure 6.2B) by subtracting tectonic uplift from the relative
strandline record (Figure 6.5A). Sea-level curve modified from Chappell (1983); oxygen-isotope stages (1–9) from deep-sea
cores (Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973).
The primary task in coastal tectonics is separating the apparent component from the real component of a relative sea-
level record. This is done graphically or algebraically by subtracting the real sea-level history from a relative sea-level
record:
(6.2)
In effect, the real sea-level history is a fluctuating tectonic datum to which each strandline (tectonic marker) must be
correlated by age (Figures 6.5, 6.6, and 6.7).
The real sea-level history is obtained by subtracting apparent sea-level changes (the inverse of vertical crustal
movements) from a detailed and well-dated relative sea-level record (Figure 6.5):
(6.3)
In this case, the tectonic history is an absolute sea-level datum and can be either moving or stationary. A rapidly and
steadily rising coastline is the best datum for measuring major, long-term sea-level fluctuations (Figures 6.5A and 6.6)
(Chappell, 1983), whereas a stable coastline is the best datum for measuring minor, short-term sea-level changes (Figures
6.5B and 6.7) (Bloom, 1970; Scholl et al., 1970). Generally, the greatest uncertainties in most long-term sea-level histories
derived from strandline data stem from the simplifying assumption of constant uplift. However, on a tilted coastline where
Pleistocene strandlines converge, constant long-term uplift at a particular locality can be demonstrated empirically
(Chappell, 1983). The greatest uncertainties in short-term sea-level histories stem from the assumption of coastal stability.
Where short-term stability at a coastal locality cannot be demonstrated by independent geodetic data, subtle sea-level
changes can be expressed in only relative terms. An additional complication is
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FIGURE 6.7 Holocene sea-level changes and origin of emergent Holocene strandlines. In contrast to Pleistocene strandlines,
emergent Holocene strandlines represent discrete uplift events or storm events, not sea-level fluctuations. The highest
strandline correlates with the tangent point at the sea-level inflection between 7 ka and 5 ka BP. All lower strandlines represent
two paleoshorelines, one occupied during the transgressive phase and one during the regressive phase (see Figure 6.5B for
relative sea-level changes). The sea-level curve is general and may vary slightly from region to region owing to minor geoidal
distortions.
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COASTAL TECTONICS 100
that different measurement techniques (e.g., geodetic, tide gauge) occasionally yield conflicting results for short-term sea-
level changes (Brown, 1978).
Pleistocene Strandlines
Along steep coastal slopes in uplifting areas Pleistocene strandlines occur most commonly as narrow (<1 km), steplike
terraces within a few hundred meters above present sea level. Consequently, a vertical sequence of uplifted strandline
terraces resembles a flight of stairs (Figures 6.1 and 6.2). Each strandline terrace consists of a virtually horizontal erosional
or depositional platform backed by a steep sea cliff along its landward margin. The shoreline angle, the intersection of the
relict platform and sea cliff, closely approximates the location and elevation of the abandoned marine shoreline and is the
linear structural marker depicted on most longitudinal profiles of deformed strandlines (for examples see Figures 6.8A, 6.13,
6.17, 6.20, and 6.21). The shoreline platform, also referred to as the terrace platform, is the planar tectonic marker depicted
on most cross-sectional profiles and detailed isobase maps of deformed strandlines (Figures 6.2 and 6.3A; also see Figures
6.19 and 6.21 below).
Commonly, a thin (1–3 m) veneer of shallow-water sand, gravel, and cobbles, which locally contains fossil marine
shells used for dating, overlies the terrace platform. Where subaerial slope degradation is rapid, a seaward-thinning prism
of alluvium derived from upland streams and abandoned sea cliffs overlies the platform and its associated marine sediments
and buries the shoreline angle (Figure 6.2A). In these areas the geomorphic expression of successively higher (older)
Pleistocene strandline terraces is progressively subdued, and the position and configuration of both the shoreline angle and
the terrace platform must be derived from borehole or shallow seismic data (see Figure 6.21 below) (Bradley and Griggs,
1976; Lajoie et al., 1979b). However, in some areas the progressively greater degradation of successively older relict sea
cliffs provides a means of dating emergent strandlines (Figure 6.2A) (Hanks et al., 1984). Along gentle coastal slopes in
slowly uplifting areas emergent strandlines commonly consist of broad (1–10 km) terrace platforms backed by low sea
cliffs obscured by relict beach ridges and dune fields (Hoyt and Hails, 1974; Lajoie et al., 1979a).
A general consensus has developed over the past two decades that a flight of emergent Pleistocene strandlines is the
geologic record of periodic glacio-eustatic sea-level highstands superimposed on a rising coastline (Figure 6.6) (Broecker
et al., 1968; Mesolella et al., 1969; Matthews, 1973). In this model, a rising coastal land-mass is a moving strip chart on
which brief sea-level highstands were successively recorded as depositional or erosional strandlines. Strandlines also
formed during sea-level lowstands (Emery, 1958; Lewis, 1971a,b, 1974; Ridlon, 1972), but along uplifting coastlines most
of these strandlines were destroyed by wave erosion during subsequent sea-level fluctuations and, therefore, rarely appear
in the emergent marine record (Figure 6.6). An important exception is found in the deeply incised sequence of emergent
strandline terraces on the Huon Peninsula of Papua New Guinea, where sea-level lowstands are recorded as deltaic
accumulations preserved beneath a protective cover of coral reefs deposited during subsequent sea-level highstands
(Chappell, 1974a, 1983). Along many subsiding coastlines, strandlines formed during sea-level lowstands probably
dominate the submergent geomorphic record but are difficult to distinguish from strandlines formed during highstands
(Moore and Fornari, 1984).
The most detailed tectonic datum for deriving uplift from emergent Pleistocene strandlines on coastlines throughout
the world is the paleosea-level curve obtained by subtracting well-documented constant tectonic uplift from the relative
sea-level record of emergent coral-reef strandlines on the Huon Peninsula of Papua New Guinea (Figures 6.2B and 6.6)
(Veeh and Chappell, 1970; Bloom et al., 1974; Chappell, 1983). There, uranium-series dates on fossil corals yield a
paleosea-level curve back to about 340 ka before present (BP) that agrees with longer, but less detailed, sea-level curves
derived from emergent coral-reef strandlines on the island of Barbados in the West Indies (Broecker et al., 1968; Mesolella
et al., 1969; Matthews, 1973; Bloom et al., 1974; Bender et al., 1979) and from oxygen-isotope data from deep-sea cores
(Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973). The uplift rate (maximum 4.0 m/ka) of the Huon Peninsula was derived from the elevation
of the prominent 120-ka strandline that formed 2–10 m above present sea level during the last major interglacial sea-level
highstand (Thurber et al., 1965; Veeh, 1966; Ku et al., 1974; Neumann and Moore, 1975; Marshall and Thom, 1976;
Stearns, 1976; Harmon et al., 1978; Shubert and Szabo, 1978; Szabo et al., 1978; Szabo, 1979). The most important
features of the New Guinea paleosea-level curve as a tectonic datum are the periodic interglacial highstands at
approximately 100 ka intervals and the successively lower interstadial highstands at approximately 20 ka intervals over the
past 120 ka. Virtually all Pleistocene strandlines along emergent coastlines throughout the world were formed during these
brief paleosea-level highstands. The longer paleosea-level records on Barbados and in the deep-sea cores indicate that the
main 100-ka cycle of interglacial high
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COASTAL TECTONICS 101
stands extends back to at least 700 ka (Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973; Bender et al., 1979).
Morner (1976, 1983) argued that no locally derived Pleistocene sea-level curve should be used as a worldwide tectonic
datum because the sea surface, an approximate geoid or equipotential gravitational surface, is grossly distorted by
gravitational fluctuations on a time scale of 10–100 ka. If correct, this supposition implies that major, glacially induced
changes in ocean volume were expressed by neither synchronous nor uniform sea-level fluctuations. However, similar
absolute ages of Pleistocene strandlines on emergent coastlines throughout the world and, more importantly, similar
elevations of sea-level highstands on several independently derived late Pleistocene sea-level curves demonstrate that,
within reasonable margins of uncertainty (±5 ka and ±10 m; Stearns, 1976, 1984; Harmon et al., 1979; Chappell, 1983),
major sea-level fluctuations were synchronous and relatively uniform over at least the past 300 ka, and most likely muc h
longer (Veeh and Valentine, 1967; Bloom et al., 1974; Konishi et al., 1974; Ku and Kern, 1974; Moore and Samayajulu,
1974; Chappell and Veeh, 1978; Harmon et al., 1978; Marshall and Launay, 1978; Bender et al., 1979; Dodge et al., 1983;
Ward, 1985; also see references on elevation of 120-ka highstand in preceding paragraph). Also, reasonable graphical
correlations of undated strandline sequences in Japan (see Figure 6.14 below) (Miyoshi, 1983), New Zealand (W.Bull,
University of Arizona, personal communication, 1983), and California (Hanks et al., 1984) with 120-ka to 40-ka highstands
on the New Guinea paleosea-level curve indicate that strandlines from all four areas were synchronous and had a common
datum. An apparent exception is found along the southeast Atlantic coast of North America, where the ages, but not the
relative heights, of late Pleistocene highstands agree with paleosea-level data from New Guinea and other parts of the world
(Belknap, 1979; Cronin et al., 1981). However, the discrepancies of 20–30 m found along this passive continental margin
may represent subtle tectonic or isostatic crustal movements not regional sea-level variations. In any event, although rapid
geoidal distortion is a potential problem that requires further investigation, most existing data indicate that geoidal
distortion could not have been significant over late Pleistocene time. Consequently, there is no compelling reason not to use
the New Guinea sea-level curve worldwide as a first-order tectonic datum, at least over the past 120 ka.
Because virtually all emergent Pleistocene strandlines were formed during sea-level highstands (Figure 6.6), the task
of dating a particular strandline is reduced to correlating it with a specific peak on the New Guinea paleosea-level curve
using one or more absolute (isotopic) or relative (geomorphic, paleontologic, and chemical) dating techniques (Chappell
and Veeh, 1978; Kennedy et al., 1982; Sutherland, 1983; Hanks et al., 1984). Uranium-series analyses of fossil corals yield
the most reliable absolute dates for Pleistocene strandlines (Broecker and Bender, 1973; Harmon et al., 1979), but because
fossil corals are virtually restricted to tropical latitudes, less-reliable dating techniques must be used at higher latitudes.
Frequently, only one or two Pleistocene strandlines in an emergent sequence can be dated independently, but the ages
of other strandlines can be inferred from the resultant uplift rate (Chappell and Veeh, 1978; Hanks et al., 1984; Ward,
1985). Occasionally, an entire sequence of undated late Pleistocene strandlines can be correlated with the paleosea-level
curve by trial and error if different, but constant, uplift rates are assumed; the best graphical correlation of strandline
elevations and paleosea-level highstands simultaneously yields the most reasonable uplift rate and strandline ages (see
Figure 6.6). In effect, the uplift rate itself is a useful dating tool, even if not independently derived. However, in some
complexly deformed coastal areas no strandlines can be dated confidently using this graphical technique (Weber, 1983),
which suggests that the uplift rate varied with time. Generally, for strandlines dated between 700 ka and 200 ka BP by
either absolute or relative techniques the uncertainty in correlation with the Pleistocene paleosea-level curve is at least one
major glacioeustatic cycle (±100 ka), and for strandline dated between 120 ka and 30 ka the uncertainty is commonly one
minor cycle (±20 ka) (Harmon et al., 1979; Stearns, 1984).
The best-preserved and most reliably dated Pleistocene strandlines along most emergent coastlines correlate with the
120-ka, 104-ka, and 82-ka sea-level highstands (see Figure 6.11B below). These three highstands correlate with deep-sea
oxygen-isotope substages 5e, 5c, and 5a, respectively (Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973; Chappell, 1983), and their strandlines
are often referred to by these alphanumeric designations. Strandlines that correlate with younger (lower) highstands appear
in the emergent geologic record only where uplift rates are sufficiently high (>0.3–1.0 m/ka) to elevate them above present
sea level (Figure 6.6). Along most erosional coastlines some emergent Pleistocene strandlines are missing or are laterally
discontinuous owing to sea-cliff retreat during the formation of younger strandlines (see Figures 6.17B and 6.20A below).
Generally, strandlines older than 400 ka are poorly preserved owing to subaerial slope degradation and stream incision;
exceptions are found on stable or slowly rising coastlines where strandlines as old as 2.4 m.y. are commonly preserved
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COASTAL TECTONICS 102
(Ward, 1985). In areas of rapid uplift (greater than 4 m/ka), subaerial erosional processes are greatly accelerated and
strandlines older than 120 ka are rarely preserved. However, in areas of rapid uplift the fine structure of late Pleistocene
sea-level history is most clearly and completely recorded by strandlines younger than 120 ka (Chappell, 1983).
Holocene Strandlines
Radiocarbon dates on fossil wood, peat, and shell from sedimentary deposits on continental shelves and in shallow
coastal embayments throughout the world indicate that sea level stood about 100–150 m below its present position during
the last glacial maximum between 20 ka and 15 ka BP, and then rose rapidly to within 4–6 m of its present position by
about 7–5 ka BP as the major ice sheets retreated at the end of Pleistocene time (Bloom, 1977). Although sea-level changes
over the past 5 ka may have varied regionally owing to minor geoidal distortion and hydro-isostatic crustal loading (Clark
et al., 1978), the most reliable data indicate that sea level has not fluctuated significantly (±2 m), nor has it been higher than
its present position, over this period of time (Figure 6.7) (Thom et al., 1969; Bloom, 1970; Scholl et al., 1970; Omoto,
1979; Faure et al., 1980; Thom and Roy, 1983; Sneh and Klein, 1984; Gibb, in press). Consequently, Holocene strandlines,
unlike Pleistocene strandlines, do not represent eustatic sea-level fluctuations but rather episodic crustal movements or
major storm events. However, the highest strandlines in most Holocene strandline sequences usually represent the sudden
and drastic decrease in postglacial sea-level rise between 7 ka and 5 ka BP (Figure 6.7). Along erosional coastlines
emergent Holocene strandlines form and survive only where crustal uplift is sufficiently rapid (>1–2 m/ka) to offset the
destructive effects of subsequent wave erosion. However, along prograding coastlines depositional strandlines survive even
where there is little or no crustal uplift (Figure 6.3B) (Schofield, 1973, Garrick, 1979).
Most emergent Holocene strandlines of both erosional and depositional origin are similar in configuration to their
Pleistocene counterparts but usually are smaller in scale, finer in geomorphic expression, and better preserved (Figure 6.3).
Also, because of their relatively youthful age, most Holocene strandlines lie within tens rather than hundreds of meters
above present sea level, even along the most rapidly uplifting coastlines. In protected embayments and near the mouths of
large streams and rivers, Holocene strandlines commonly consist of bouldery to sandy beach ridges that are relatively
imprecise paleosea-level indicators (Figure 6.3B) (Schofield, 1973; Garrick, 1979). However, along many wave-resistant
coastlines with small tidal ranges (less than 1 m) emergent Holocene strandlines consist of horizontal solution notches and
faint waterlines on rocks and sea cliffs that are extremely precise paleosea-level indicators (Machida et al., 1976; Pirazzoli
et al., 1982). Along some recently uplifted coastlines, strandlines consist of horizontal bands of fossil intertidal sessile
organisms such as barnacles, which are also precise paleosea-level indicators (Sawamura, 1953) even in areas with large
tidal ranges (Plafker, 1965). In the historical record, emergent Holocene strandlines most commonly consist of points on
tide-gauge records (Figures 6.4 and 6.9B) (Hicks and Crosby, 1974; Berrino et al., in press), but in a few areas they consist
of waterlines and burrows of intertidal organisms on recently uplifted or down-dropped man-made coastal structures (see
Figure 6.9A below) (Grant, 1970; Flemming, 1972; Berrino et al., in press).
Along many rapidly uplifting coastlines, prehistoric Holocene strandlines are similar to strandlines produced by
abrupt vertical crustal movements associated with major historical earthquakes (Sugimura and Naruse, 1954; Plafker, 1965;
Wellman, 1969; Matsuda et al., 1978). This similarity suggests that all emergent Holocene strandlines are of coseismic
origin. However, along stable or steadily uplifting coastlines, both erosional and depositional strandlines probably form
during infrequent major storms (Schofield, 1973; Garrick 1979; Hillaire-Marcel, 1980). A major uncertainty in deriving a
history of paleoseismicity from a sequence of emergent Holocene strandlines is that coseismic and storm-produced
strandlines may be indistinguishable. Consequently, if coseismic and storm-produced strandlines occur together (Sandweiss
and Rollins, 1981; Lajoie et al., 1982a), the number of past earthquakes could be overestimated from the geologic record.
On the other hand, wave erosion may remove coseismic strandlines from the geologic record (see Figure 6.27B below)
(Plafker et al., 1981), in which case the number of earthquakes represented by a sequence of emergent Holocene strandlines
could be underestimated.
Because of minor regional or subregional geoidal distortions, local hydro-isostatic adjustments, variable
oceanographic conditions (currents, water temperature, salinity), and climatic fluctuations, there is probably no locally
derived late Holocene sea-level curve that can be used as a precise universal tectonic datum for measuring minor (less than 2
m) vertical crustal movements (Clark et al., 1978; Newman et al., 1978). At best, a locally derived curve is a regional
tectonic datum. However, data from coastlines throughout the world indicate that relative sea-level changes greater than
2–4 m over the past 6 ka are either apparent (caused by tectonic and isostatic crustal movements or sediment
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COASTAL TECTONICS 103
compaction) or spurious (caused by reworking or contamination of dated fossil materials), not real. Therefore, present sea-
level or a generalized sea-level curve (Figure 6.7) is often used as an approximate tectonic datum for measuring late
Holocene crustal movements, especially where rates of deformation are very high (see Figures 6.25, 6.26, and 6.27 below)
(Matsuda et al., 1978; Plafker and Rubin, 1978; Plafker et al., 1981).
Most Holocene strandlines in the geologic record are dated directly or indirectly by radiocarbon techniques. However,
the sudden and drastic decrease in the sea-level rise between 7 ka and 5 ka BP occasionally leads to incorrect or misleading
radiocarbon dates on fossil materials (particularly marine shells) from emergent Holocene strandlines. This potential
problem exists because all but the highest strandline in a sequence of emergent Holocene strandlines represent two
different paleoshorelines—a transgressive shoreline older than about 6 ka and a regressive shoreline younger than 6 ka
(Figure 6.7). Consequently, marine shells deposited on the older, transgressive shoreline could be reworked into sediments
deposited on the younger, regressive shoreline.
On the other hand, the two-part configuration of the Holocene sea-level curve provides an independent means of
approximating the ages of emergent Holocene strandlines and deriving minimum uplift rates. On a plot of strandline
elevation versus sea-level history (Figure 6.7), the straight line connecting the elevation of the highest strandline on the
vertical axis and the tangent point at the break on the sea-level curve represents the average uplift since that strandline
formed. The coordinates of the tangent point are the tentative age and original elevation of the highest strandline, and the
slope of the line is the tentative average uplift rate. If constant uplift is assumed, interpolation of the uplift rate yields age
estimates for any lower strandlines (see Figure 6.28 below) (Wellman, 1969). Because the highest Holocene strandline on
most coastlines represents the break in sea-level rise, its age is usually between 7 ka and 5 ka, depending on the uplift rate;
because the break is rounded, the age of the highest strandline increases from 5 ka to 7 ka as the uplift rate increases.
However, if subsequent cliff erosion destroyed the 7–5-ka strandline, the highest surviving strandline would be somewhat
younger. Obviously, other dating techniques are needed to test for this possibility.
STRANDLINE DISPLACEMENT AND DEFORMATION
Regional patterns of vertical strandline displacement (uplift or subsidence) and deformation (folding and faulting)
commonly reflect primary tectonic processes (subduction and rifting) related directly to horizontal plate motions. Important
exceptions are found in the northernmost continental areas of North America and Europe where regional patterns of latest
Pleistocene and Holocene strandline displacement reflect major but transitory isostatic responses of the crust and mantle to
geologically recent glacial unloading.
Local patterns of strandline displacement and deformation generally involve minor tectonic structures (folds, faults,
horsts, and grabens) that reflect secondary tectonic processes related to subregional stress patterns. Available data indicate
that most secondary and some primary tectonic deformation recorded by marine strandlines extends no farther than a few
tens of kilometers inland from the coastline. In many areas, vertical ground displacements on a local scale also reflect
nontectonic processes such as volcanic tumescence (Kaizuka et al., 1983; Berrino et al., in press), isostatic adjustments due
to sediment accumulation (Fisk and McFarlan, 1955), and sediment compaction due to natural processes (Atwater et al.,
1977) or fluid extraction (Poland, 1971; Buchanan-Banks et al., 1975). In many cases, especially those involving minor
vertical displacements, it is difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish tectonic from nontectonic apparent sea-level changes.
It is noteworthy that on both local and regional scales sequences of marine (and lacustrine) strandlines constitute the
longest and most detailed and areally extensive records of late Quaternary crustal deformation. Indeed, the magnitudes and
rates of tectonic, isostatic, and volcanic processes derived from deformed and displaced strandlines are commonly used as
references for comparing and interpreting tectonic data from less complete or shorter records in other geological
environments.
Vertical Displacement
Because marine strandlines define horizontal lines and planes (where curved or closed), they record vertical crustal
displacements (uplift or subsidence) more clearly than horizontal displacements. Net vertical displacement (D) is the
difference between the present elevation (E) and the original elevation (e) of a strandline and is also the product of the
strandline's age (A) and the average displacement rate (R) (Figure 6.5):
(6.4)
The average displacement rate (R) is the displacement (D; Eíe) of a strandline divided by its age (A):
(6.5)
An isobase is a locus of points on a planar tectonic marker (a marine platform or a plane defined by a curved or closed
strandline) along which the vertical
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COASTAL TECTONICS 104
displacement rate (R) is equal (see Figures 6.12, 6.15A, 6.16A, 6.18, and 6.21 below). The history of vertical crustal
displacements at a coastal locality is derived graphically by plotting the displacement (D) of each independently dated
strandline as a function of its age (A) (Figure 6.5). The resultant locus of points is the apparent sea-level history, which, as
stated previously, is the inverse of the displacement history. If this locus of points defines a straight line, the displacement
rate (R), which is the inverse of the slope of the line, was constant. If it does not define a straight line, the displacement rate
was variable (see Figures 6.9A and 6.10B below). Commonly, only one strandline in a sequence can be dated
independently, and, therefore, only an average displacement rate can be derived from a relative sea-level record.
A plot of strandline elevation (E) as a function of age (A) yields the relative sea-level history, which is the inverse of
the approximate displacement history where vertical displacements are large compared to sea-level changes. Frequently,
uplift histories based on highly emergent Holocene strandlines (see Figures 6.25, 6.26, and 6.27 below) or very old
Pleistocene strandlines (Bender et al., 1979) are approximated by relative sea-level curves. In other words, present sea
level can be used as an approximate datum.
The presence of emergent marine strandlines along most active-tectonic coastlines suggests that crustal uplift is more
common than subsidence. However, subsidence is probably underestimated merely because most geologic evidence for
downward crustal movements is buried in sedimentary basins (Atwater et al., 1977) or is submerged offshore (Lewis,
1974). Many studies of long-term crustal movements in coastal areas focus on uplift mainly because the emergent
strandline record is better exposed and easier to interpret than the submergent record.
Most long-term crustal movements recorded by marine strandlines reflect sustained tectonic deformation along active
plate boundaries, but the most rapid known rates of vertical crustal displacement reflect transitory volcanic tumescence and
glacio-isostatic rebound. Both processes are noteworthy primarily for comparative purposes, but also because they are,
themselves, related to tectonic processes in various ways.
Volcanic Displacements The highest known rates of sustained vertical ground displacement exceed 100 mm/ yr and
are recorded by marine strandlines on the flanks of active insular and coastal volcanoes. For example, on the island of Iwo
Jima, the tip of a large volcano in the western Pacific Ocean, radiometrically and historically dated emergent strandlines
yield an average uplift rate of 200 mm/yr over the past 800 yr (Figure 6.8) (Kaizuka et al., 1983). However, tide-gauge data
suggest that uplift rates on the island probably fluctuated between 100 and 800 mm/yr over this period of time
(Figure 6.8B), during which only minor phreatic eruptions are known to have occurred (Corwin and Foster, 1959).
FIGURE 6.8 Recent volcanic uplift of Iwo Jima, a volcanic island 1200 km south of Tokyo, Japan.
A, Longitudinal strandline profiles. The strandline labeled 1779 was the active shoreline mapped in 1779 by the crew of the
English explorer, Captain Cook. The age and maximum elevation of this strandline yield an average uplift rate of 200 mm/yr,
which is similar to the rate of 170–240 mm/yr derived from radiocarbon dates of 0.5–0.7 ka on the 110-m strandline. The
well-defined strandlines were formed by wave action during brief pauses in uplift or during periodic storms.
B, Average uplift rates derived from 110-m (0.5–0.7 ka) and 40-m (0.2 ka) strandlines. Tide-gauge data record variable uplift
that reached 800 mm/yr over the past 80 yr. Both modified from Kaizuka et al. (1983).
An even longer record of vertical ground displacements related to volcanic processes is found in the Phlegraean Fields
caldera on the Mediterranean coast near Naples, Italy, where historically dated strandlines on man-made structures
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document alternating subsidence and uplift that averaged 12 mm/yr over the past 2 ka (Figure 6.9) (Berrino et al., in press).
However, uplift and subsidence exceeded 150 mm/yr for a few decades before and after a minor eruption in A.D. 1538.
Tide-
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COASTAL TECTONICS 105
gauge records at Pozzuoli, a coastal suburb of Naples, yield uplift rates of 350 and 500 mm/yr for two brief periods between
1970 and 1983 (Figure 6.9B), which suggests that another eruption is imminent. However, the data from Iwo Jima indicate
that rapid uplift and even short surges of extremely rapid uplift are not by themselves definite indicators of imminent
eruption.
Glacio-Isostatic Displacements Highly emergent latest Pleistocene and Holocene marine (and lacustrine) strandlines in
the deglaciated areas of northern North America and Europe record the highest known rates of regional vertical crustal
displacement (Figure 6.10). Around Hudson Bay in Canada (Farrand and Gajda, 1962; Andrews, 1970; Peltier and
Andrews, 1983) and the Gulf of Bothnia in Fennoscandia (Lundqvist, 1965; Donner, 1965, 1980), which were the regions
of thickest ice accumulation during the last major glacial advance, rates of postglacial isostatic rebound reached 100 m/ka
(100 mm/yr) between 13 ka and 7 ka BP and decreased quasi-exponentially to the present rates of 6–9 mm/yr (Barnett,
1966; Balling, 1980). Even these rates of residual glacio-isostatic rebound are extremely high compared with most rates of
vertical tectonic displacement. Along the margins of these deglaciated areas, Holocene strandlines and tide-gauge data
record complex histories of rapid subsidence as well as uplift, which probably reflect the collapse and inward migration of a
crustal forebulge peripheral to the retreating ice front (Grant, 1980; Morner, 1980; Clague et al., 1982).
FIGURE 6.10 Postglacial isostatic rebound curves derived
FIGURE 6.9 Recent volcanic displacements at Pozzuoli, a
from dated marine and lacustrine strandlines.
coastal suburb of Naples, Italy, in the Phlegraean Fields
A, Relative sea-level changes (minimum apparent sea-
caldera.
level changes), Gulf of Bothnia, Scandinavia. Modified
A, Vertical displacement based on historical data such as
from Lundqvist (1965).
water marks on Roman buildings. Mount Nuovo, a small
B, Apparent sea-level changes, Hudson Bay, North
cinder cone nearby, erupted in A.D. 1538, about 40 yr
America. Modified from Farrand and Gajda (1962).
after the uplift rate increased from 10 mm/yr to about 100
In both areas crustal movement is the inverse of the
mm/yr. The general subsidence that followed this small
curves. Regional crustal uplift exceeded 100 m/ka shortly
eruption has now reversed.
after deglaciation in both areas.
B, Tide-gauge data at Pozzuoli Harbor from 1970 to 1983.
During two brief periods (1970–1973 and 1982–1983)
uplift reached 800 mm/ yr. Because of this rapid uplift,
increased fumerole activity, and ground cracking, parts of
Pozzuoli have been evacuated in anticipation of another
eruption. Modified from Berrino et al. (in press).
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COASTAL TECTONICS 106
In some deglaciated areas rapid vertical crustal movements recorded by strandlines probably reflect tectonic as well as
isostatic processes (Grant, 1970; Mathews et al., 1970; Clague et al., 1982; Anderson et al., 1984), and in a few areas the
two processes apparently interact. For example, in western Scotland successively older emergent Holocene strandlines are
offset progressively greater amounts across a series of local vertical faults (Sissons and Cornish, 1982), which indicates
that the rate of glacio-isostatic rebound differed on either side of each fault. Also, in both North America and Europe,
concentrations of recent seismic activity are closely associated with residual glacio-isostatic adjustments (Oliver et al.,
1970; Morner, 1978, 1980; Thompson et al., 1983; Anderson et al., 1984). Apparently, even residual isostatic movements
trigger earthquakes along zones of crustal weakness, even in areas of relative tectonic stability. Rapid glacio-isostatic
displacements are also important in a general tectonic context because they yield valuable information on the strength of the
Earth's crust and the visco-elastic properties of the underlying mantle (Walcott, 1970; Peltier and Andrews, 1983).
Tectonic Displacements In marked contrast to the extremely rapid rates of volcanic and glacio-isostatic crustal
displacement (>100 m/ka), the highest known rates of sustained vertical tectonic displacement recorded by marine
strandlines are only 4 to 10 m/ka (Figure 6.11). Furthermore, these rapid displacement rates are recorded only by Holocene
and latest Pleistocene strandlines, which suggests that they are of fairly limited duration. Also, virtually all rapid tectonic
displacements recorded by marine strandlines occur along the axes of youthful anticlines above thrust-type faults in
compressional tectonic regimes. Consequently, rapid vertical displacements of tectonic origin mainly reflect secondary
deformation and are of limited importance in studies of regional crustal movements. However, because these rapid
displacements are usually produced by episodic coseismic uplift events that are sufficiently large (1–15 m) to be expressed
in the geologic record as emergent Holocene strandlines, they are extremely important in studies of paleoseismicity (see
Figures 6.25–6.28 below). The episodic nature of rapid displacements recorded by marine strandlines suggests that maybe
all tectonic deformation occurs in discrete increments. If this model is correct, these increments are too small or too
infrequent at low deformation rates to be clearly expressed or preserved in the long-term geologic record.
Data from emergent Pleistocene strandlines throughout the world indicate that most rates of long-term tectonic uplift
are less than 2 m/ka (Figure 6.11B), even along rapidly converging plate boundaries. Evidently,
FIGURE 6.11 Rates of vertical crustal displacement (uplift only).
A, Holocene: IJ, Iwo Jima, volcanic uplift included for comparative purposes (Kaizuka et al., 1983); CR, Crete (Angelier,
1979); Z, Zagros (Vita-Finzi, 1979); B, Bahrein (Ridley and Seeley, 1979); MI, Middleton Island (Plafker and Rubin, 1978);
IC, Icy Cape (Plafker et al., 1981); M, Makran (Page et al., 1979); T, Turakirae (Wellman, 1969); BP, Boso Peninsula
(Matsuda et al., 1978; MF, Miller Flat; OH, Ocean House; V, Ventura; (Lajoie et al., 1982a, 1983); O, Osado, K, Kosado
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(Tamura, 1979); MP, Muroto Peninsula (Kanaya, 1978); KJ, Kikai Jima (Nakata et al., 1978).
B, Pleistocene: NZ, New Zealand (Wellman, 1979); V, Ventura (Lajoie et al., 1982b); A, Arauco (Kaizuka et al., 1973); HP,
Huon Peninsula (Chappell, 1983); W, Wairarapa (Gahni, 1978); KJ, Kikai Jima (Konishi et al., 1974); MV, Muroto
(Yoshikawa et al., 1964); O, Osado; K, Kosado (Tamura, 1979); HMB, Half Moon Bay (Lajoie et al., 1979b); SC, Santa Cruz
(Hanks et al., 1984); RI, Royalty Islands (Marshall and Launay, 1978); TA, Taaanaki (Pillans, 1983); T, Timor; AT, Atauro
(Chappell and Veeh, 1978); H, Haiti (Dodge et al., 1983); B, Barbados (Bender et al., 1979); AH, Arroyo Hondo; CO, Cojo;
Al, Algeria; IV, Isla Vista; SM, Santa Monica (Lajoie and Sarna-Wojcicki, 1982); PL, Point Loma (Ku and Kern, 1974); J,
Jamaica (Moore and Samayajulu, 1974); BA, Bahamas (Neumann and Moore, 1975); Y, Yucatan (Szabo et al., 1978); BE,
Bermuda (Harmon et al., 1979, 1981); Q, Queensland (Ward, 1985).
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COASTAL TECTONICS 107
in most areas isostatic adjustments are sufficiently rapid to compensate for (and thus prevent) higher rates of vertical
crustal movement on a regional scale.
Although most short-term, vertical tectonic displacements recorded by Holocene marine strandlines are episodic or
otherwise variable (see Figures 6.25–6.28 below) (Matsuda et al., 1978; Plafker and Rubin, 1978; Plafker et al., 1981),
most average, long-term displacements recorded by Pleistocene strandlines appear to be relatively constant, at least over the
past 100–500 ka (Bloom et al., 1974; Konishi et al., 1974; Moore and Samayajulu, 1974; Chappell and Veeh, 1978; Bender
et al., 1979; Harmon et al., 1981; Dodge et al., 1983; Chappell, 1983; Hanks et al., 1984). Along some slowly uplifting
coastlines, strandline data indicate that vertical displacement was fairly constant over the past 2–2.5 m.y. (Ward, 1985).
Constant uplift can be demonstrated by comparing actual strandline elevations with those predicted by assuming constant
uplift and using the New Guinea sea-level curve as a tectonic datum. Close agreement supports both the assumption of
constant uplift and, of course, the assumption that the sea-level curve was a common tectonic datum.
Along a few coastlines, strandline data indicate that long-term tectonic uplift was clearly variable. For example, in the
Christchurch area on the island of Barbados radiometrically dated Pleistocene strandlines yield an average uplift rate of 0.5
m/ka between 300 ka and 200 ka BP, and a lower rate of 0.3 m/ka after 200 ka BP (Bender et al., 1979). Interestingly, in
the nearby Saint George's Valley area uplift was relatively constant and averaged 0.3 m/ka over the past 640 ka.
Where data from marine strandlines and other tectonic markers are sufficiently abundant, regional compilations of
vertical crustal movements provide valuable insights into both local and regional tectonic processes. Regional data are
most conveniently and clearly expressed planimetrically by isobases (Figure 6.12) (Research Group for Quaternary
Tectonics Map of Japan, 1969; Dambara, 1971; Wellman, 1979). Not surprisingly, most long-term regional isobases closely
mimic general topographic contours, which simply means that the highest uplift rates occur in mountainous areas and the
lowest rates or subsidence occur in low-lying regions. Usually, short-term isobases derived from historical information
(tide-gauge and geodetic data) agree with longer-term isobases derived from geologic information, but locally short-term
and long-term displacement rates differ drastically or the sense of displacement is reversed. For example, along the
coastlines of northern California, Oregon, and Washington, net (long-term) displacement rates derived from Pleistocene
strandlines are very low (0–0.5 m/ka; derived from dates given in Kennedy et al., 1982), but short-term rates derived from
tide-gauge data locally reach 3 mm/yr (3 m/ ka) (Hicks and Crosby, 1974). Some differences and reversals between short-
term and long-term displacement rates probably represent pre-earthquake strain accumulation (Matsuda, 1976) or
postearthquake crustal relaxation and, therefore, are important in determining earthquake potential (Thatcher, 1984). On the
Muroto Peninsula of Shikoku, Japan, the 120-ka and 6-ka strandlines yield similar long-term uplift rates of 1.7 and 2.0 ka,
respectively (Yoshikawa et al., 1974) (see Figure 6.16A below), whereas episodic uplift associated with earthquakes over
the past 300 yr averaged 12.5 mm/yr (see Figure 6.26A below). Geodetic and tide-gauge data show that the peninsula
actually subsided between these coseismic uplift events (see Figure 6.16B below).
FIGURE 6.12 Isobase map of South Island, New Zealand, summarizing uplift data from marine strandlines and other vertically
displaced geomorphic features. An isobase is a locus of points along which the uplift rate was equal. Isobases of South Island
generally mimic topographic contours. Modified from Wellman (1979).
Tilt
Crustal tilt (T) is the differential vertical displacement (DIíDII) of a horizontal tectonic marker (strandline or platform)
divided by the horizontal distance (d) between any two observation points (I and II)
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COASTAL TECTONICS 108
along a coastline. The resultant dimensionless ratio is, of course, the tangent of the tilt angle (ș):
(6.6)
The tilt rate (R) is the tilt (T) divided by the age (A) of the marker:
(6.7)
Even minor crustal tilt is clearly expressed in the longitudinal and cross-sectional profiles of marine strandlines. If the
profiles of two or more tilted strandlines are parallel (Figure 6.13A), the differential vertical displacement took place at the
time or after the youngest strandline formed. If the profiles converge (Figures 6.13B and 6.13C), which is the most common
case, the differential displacement was progressive and took place over the period of time during which the strandlines
formed.
If the tilt rate is constant, the geometric relationships of converging strandline profiles (Figures 6.13B and 6.13C)
provide a useful means of correlating Pleistocene strandlines from widely separated areas, even where no independent age
data are available. The algebraic expression relating the present elevation (E1) of one strandline to the present elevation (E2)
of a second strandline at the same coastal locality is
(6.8)
where the first constant (A 1/A2) is the ratio of the strandline ages, and the second constant [(A1/A2) e2í e1] is the
difference between the original strandline elevations (e1 and e2). This equation defines a straight line generated by
graphically plotting the elevation of the first strandline (E1) as a function of the elevation of the second (E 2) at two or more
localities along a tilted coastline or from different coastlines with different uplift rates (Figure 6.14). The first constant (A1/A2)
is the slope of the line, and the second constant [(A1/A 2) e2íe1] is its intercept on the vertical axis. The numerical values of
these two constants are unique for any pair of Pleistocene strandlines and remain fixed regardless of the differential uplift
rates. Therefore, the graphically derived values for these constants can be used to correlate undated strandline pairs from
widely separated areas, such as from one island to another (Figure 6.14) (Miyoshi, 1983). These graphical correlations are
possible only if the strandline pairs had common datums and were synchronous, and furthermore, only if the tilt rate at each
locality was constant (but not necessarily equal). Consequently, Holocene strandlines cannot be correlated using this
graphical technique because they are not necessarily synchronous along different coastlines.
Along straight coastlines, emergent strandlines are
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FIGURE 6.13 Tilted longitudinal profiles of emergent marine strandlines.
A, Parallel Holocene strandlines on Ogi Peninsula of Sado Island, Japan. The lowest strandline was formed by differential
uplift associated with a large earthquake in 1802. The 6-ka strandline is parallel to this historical strandline, which indicates
that no other tilt event has occurred in the past 6 ka. The 2 m separating these strandlines probably represents either gradual or
abrupt uplift after 6 ka BP but before 1802. See Figure 6.24 for location. From data in Ota et al. (1976).
B, Converging Pleistocene strandlines on the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea (see Figure 6.2B for cross-sectional profile).
These converging strandlines record continual tilt over the past 120 ka. Ages are U-series dates on fossil corals. Minor
irregularities in vertical spacing represent local variations in tilt rate. Modified from Chappell (1974b).
C, Converging Pleistocene strandlines near Point Año Nuevo on the central California coastline. Modified from Lajoie et al.
(1979b).
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COASTAL TECTONICS 109
linear tectonic markers that record components of crustal tilt parallel to the shoreline. One of the best examples of tilt along a
straight coastline is found on the Huon Peninsula of Papua New Guinea where the converging longitudinal profiles of six
coral-reef strandlines record continual northwestward tilt of a large structural block over late Pleistocene time (Figure 6.13B)
(Chappell, 1974b). There, as in other areas (Figure 6.13C) (Lajoie et al., 1979b), minor irregularities in the converging
profiles of Pleistocene strandlines reflect slight variations in the patterns and rates of long-term differential uplift.
FIGURE 6.14 Correlation of Pleistocene strandlines by graphical techniques. The elevation of one strandline (E1 ) is related to
the elevation of a second strandline (E2) at the same locality by the general equation E1=(A1 /A2)E2í[(A1/A2) e2íe1]. The
constants (A1/A2 ) and [(A1/A2) e2íe1] are unique for any pair of late Pleistocene strandlines and, therefore, can be used as a
means of correlating strandline pairs from widely separated areas. The general equation (here simplified to Y=Ax+B) defines a
straight line generated by plotting the elevation of one strandline (E1 ) as a function of the elevation a second (E2); the strandline
pairs must be from localities with different but constant uplift rates, such as along a tilted coastline (Figure 6.13B), or on
widely separated islands.
A, A plot of elevations of dated strandlines (60 ka, 82 ka, 104 ka, and 120 ka) from different parts of the world illustrate the
relationship.
B, Undated strandline pairs (I and S; II and S) from throughout the Japanese archipelago. The constants for the two plots
indicate that the S, I, and II strandlines correlate with the 120-ka, 80-ka, and 60-ka strandlines, respectively. Modified from
Miyoshi (1983).
Along straight, curved, and irregular coastlines, marine platforms are planar and virtually horizontal structural markers
that record the actual direction of local tilt. In some areas progressively greater slopes of successively higher (older) marine
platforms clearly record continual crustal tilt in both seaward and landward directions (Bradley and Griggs, 1976; Sarna-
Wojcicki et al., 1976; Gahni, 1978; Pillans, 1983).
Along irregular coastlines, curved or closed strandlines around small coastal embayments, peninsulas, or islands
define broad planes that also record crustal tilt on a local, but slightly larger, scale (Figures 6.15 and 6.16A) (Ota, 1964,
1975; Tamura, 1979). A particularly instructive example of tilt is found on the Muroto Peninsula of southeast Shikoku,
Japan, where structural contours on the planes defined by 120-ka and 6-ka strandlines yield similar rates of landward
(northward) tilt of 6.1×10í5/ka and 5.5×10í5/ka, respectively (Figure 6.16) (Yoshikawa et al., 1964; Kanaya, 1978).
Significant landward tilt of the peninsula accompanied the 1947 Nankai earthquake, which suggests that long-term tilt in
that area is episodic, not continuous. Gradual short-term seaward tilt documented by geodetic and tide-gauge data prior to
the 1947 seismic event (Figure 6.16B) (Yoshikawa et al., 1964) probably reflected pre-earthquake strain accumulation
(1984).
Synchronous strandlines on widely separated islands or on distant parts of deeply embayed coastlines define areally
extensive planes that record crustal tilt on a regional scale. For example, two planes defined by the 120-ka and 6-ka
the authoritative version for attribution.
strandlines on numerous islands of the Ryukyu archipelago in southern Japan may record general eastward tilt over an area
of 100,000 km2 (Konishi et al., 1974; Ota and Hori, 1980).
Folds
Folds are merely compound tilts and, therefore, are similarly expressed by emergent marine strandlines in the coastal
geologic record (Figures 6.17 and 6.18). In some areas folds expressed by deformed strandlines occur
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COASTAL TECTONICS 110
FIGURE 6.16 Tilted strandlines on the Muroto Peninsula,
Japan.
A, Isobases on 6-ka strandline reveal short-term northward
(landward) tilt of peninsula at the rate of 5.5×10í5/ka,
which is similar to the long-term rate derived from the
120-ka strandline but much lower than the 5.3×10í4 /ka rate
preduced by historical earthquakes. Note—data points
occur only along coastlines; isobases interpolated across
inland areas.
B, Geodetic data show that significant landward tilt
accompanied the 1947 Nankai earthquake. This coseismic
FIGURE 6.15 Tilted strandlines on Sado Island, Japan. movement indicates that tilt in this area is episodic not
A, Isobases defined by 120-ka and 6-ka strandlines reveal continuous. Gradual southward (seaward) tilt documented
continuous southeastward tilt of two structural blocks by geodetic data prior to the 1947 earthquake probably
(Osado and Kosado) that constitute the island. Note—data reflected pre-earthquake strain accumulation. See
points occur only along coastlines; isobases interpolated Figure 6.24 for location. Modified from Yoshikawa et al.
across inland areas. (1964) and Kanaya (1978).
B, Longitudinal profiles of Pleistocene and Holocene
strandlines also reveal continual tilt. The strandline data
indicate that the tilt rates of the two blocks have been
constant but significantly different. If the fault separating
the two parts of the island is vertical, the 120-ka strandline
is offset about 75 m and the 6-ka strandline is offset about 4
m, which yield similar average slip rates of 0.6 m/ka and
0.7 m/ka, respectively. See Figure 6.24 for location.
Modified from Tamura (1979).
above and closely mimic tighter bedrock structures, which indicates that strandline deformation represents the most
recent increment of long-term crustal movement (Figures 6.17A and 6.18B) (Wellman, 1971a,b; Gahni, 1978; Lajoie et al.,
1982b). In many areas, however, folded strandlines are not associated with obvious bedrock structures and, therefore, are
the only clear evidence for recent crustal folding (Figure 6.17B; also see Figure 6.21 below) (Plafker, 1972; Kaizuka et al.,
1973; Lajoie et al., 1979a). In either case, progressively tighter folds in successively older strandlines reflect continual
differential crustal movement (Figure 6.17). Along
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COASTAL TECTONICS 111
some highly active coastlines coseismic strandlines are warped into progressively tighter folds (Figure 6.17A) (Wellman,
1971a,b; Kaizuka et al., 1973; Gahni, 1978), which suggests that tectonic folding, like uplift and tilt, is incremental, not
continuous.
FIGURE 6.17 Crustal folds recorded by strandlines and illustrated by profiles.
A, Longitudinal profiles of Holocene strandlines on Wairarapa coast of North Island, New Zealand, reveal tight folds clearly
expressed in underlying Tertiary rocks. Each strandline is probably of coseismic origin, which indicates that folding was
incremental not continuous. Highest (6 ka) strandline dated by graphical techniques. Modified from Wellman (1971b).
B, Longitudinal profiles of Pleistocene strandlines along the Arauco coast of Chile reveal a broad warp not expressed in
bedrock units but generally expressed in the generalized skyline profile of the local mountain range. Age of lowest strandline
estimated to be 120 ka. Modified from Kaizuka et al. (1973).
C, Profiles of historical coseismic strandlines reveal broad crustal warps in the Gulf of Alaska (1964) and on the Chilean coast
(1960). These profiles are not continuous but are defined by numerous points on highly irregular coastlines. See Figure 6.18A
for isobase map of warp in Gulf of Alaska. Modified from Plafker (1972).
On local to regional scales, vertical displacement data from deformed marine strandlines are conveniently summarized
as structural contours and isobases that express folds planimetrically (Figure 6.18; also see Figure 6.21 below). Structural
contours and standard isobases depict deformation of a single tectonic marker (Figure 6.18A; also see Figure 6.21A
below), whereas integrated isobases depict deformation normalized from two or more tectonic markers of different ages
(Figure 6.18B) (Gahni, 1978).
Isobases on the surface defined by the 1964 strandline in the Gulf of Alaska (Figure 6.18A) reveal broad, gentle warps
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produced by coseismic crustal deformation over an area of 200,000 km2 (Plafker, 1965). These isobases indicate that during
the great 1964 earthquake an area of 60,000 km2 was uplifted an average of 1–2 m and was tilted northward; maximum
uplift was 3–10 m above local, north-dipping secondary faults (Figure 6.17C) (Plafker and Rubin, 1978). The isobases also
show that an area of 110,000 km2 north of the uplifted zone subsided a maximum of 2 m during the earthquake. The pattern
of coseismic crustal warping associated with the earthquake is similar to the general pattern of long-term deformation
documented by older Holocene strandlines. However, drowned vegetation in the uplifted area south of the epicenteral
region documents subsidence during the 1.4 ka prior to the earthquake (Plafker and Rubin, 1978). This subsidence was
probably pre-earthquake strain accumulation above the interplate megathrust on which the slip occurred.
The general pattern of coseismic uplift and subsidence that accompanied the 1964 earthquake in the Gulf of Alaska is
similar to the pattern of crustal defor
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COASTAL TECTONICS 112
mation that accompanied the great 1960 megathrust earthquake in coastal Chile (Figure 6.17C) (Plafker and Savage, 1970;
Plafker, 1972). These two well-documented examples of coseismic crustal deformation suggest that broad warping
(subsidence as well as uplift) in the overthrust plate is characteristic of great megathrust earthquakes. It is noteworthy that
the subtle coseismic crustal deformation expressed by vertically displaced strandlines in both Alaska and Chile would not
have been recorded in such great detail nor over such large areas in noncoastal regions, nor even along coastlines without
deep embayments and offshore islands.
An interesting contrast to the broad, regional warps depicted by isobases on the coseismic strandline in the Gulf of
Alaska is found in the tight, local folds and related faults depicted by integrated isobases on Pleistocene and Holocene
strandlines along the Wairarapa Coast of North Island, New Zealand (Figure 6.18B). The former reflect primary crustal
deformation near the leading edge of a major overthrust plate (Plafker, 1972), and the latter reflect intense secondary
deformation due to rapid crustal shortening within an accretionary prism in a similar tectonic setting (Gahni, 1978; Cole
and Lewis, 1981).
An interesting aspect of crustal folds, which commonly is ignored or misunderstood in tectonic studies, is that the rate
of vertical displacement along the axis of a fold and the rate of tilt along its limbs both decrease as the fold matures. If this
apparent decrease in crustal deformation is documented by successively older strandlines, it could be misinterpreted as a
reduction in local or regional tectonic strain.
Vertical Fault Movement
Because marine platforms and strandlines are virtually horizontal structural markers, they record vertical fault
movement more clearly than lateral movement. Often, vertical discontinuities in cross-sectional profiles of platforms
(Figure 6.19) (Ota, 1975; Lajoie et al., 1979b; Dames and Moore Consultants, 1981; Sarna-Wojcicki et al., 1986) and in
longitudinal profiles of strandlines (Figures 6.15B and 6.20) (Yoshikawa et al., 1964; Ota, 1975; Lajoie et al., 1979a,b;
Tamura, 1979; Sissons and Cornish, 1982; Pillans, 1983) express even minor vertical fault movements, even where there is
no other evidence of fault activity. Jogs in isobases and structural contours on marine platforms also express vertical fault
movements and, where aligned, define local fault traces (Figures 6.12, 6.18B, and 6.21A) (Gahni, 1978; Lajoie et al.,
1979b). However, not all vertical offsets of marine strandlines and platforms doc
FIGURE 6.18 Crustal folds recorded by strandlines and
illustrated by isobases. An isobase is a locus of points
along which the rate of vertical crustal movement is equal.
A, 1964 strandline records subtle crustal warps associated
with large megathrust earthquake in Gulf of Alaska. See
Figure 6.17C for profile of warped surface. Modified from
Plafker (1972).
B, Integrated isobases on 100-ka surface of the Wairarapa
coast of North Island, New Zealand. Elevation data from
120-ka and 80-ka strandlines normalized to 100-ka
surface. Complex folds and faults revealed by these
isobases mimic structures in Tertiary bedrock. Intense
folding is due to crustal shortening in sedimentary prism at
leading edge of overthrust plate. Modified from Gahni
(1978).
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COASTAL TECTONICS 113
ument fault movement. Some, especially along steep coastal slopes, represent large, block-type slope failures.
FIGURE 6.20 Vertical component of fault displacement
recorded by offsets in longitudinal profiles of marine
strandlines.
FIGURE 6.19 Vertical component of fault displacement A, Progressively greater vertical offset of successively
recorded by offsets in cross-sectional profiles of marine older marine strandlines documents continual fault activity
strandlines. over at least the past 700 ka on the Taranaki coast of North
A, Wave-cut platform and overlying marine (Qtm) and Island, New Zealand. Strandline ages (81–596 ka) derived
alluvial (Qal) sediment offset about 1 m across a minor from tephrochronology, amino-acid data, and uplift rates.
bedding-plane fault near Point Conception in southern Modified from Pillans (1983).
California. Platform dated at 82 ka by graphical and B, Vertical offset of 40-ka strandline across Red Mountain
amino-acid techniques. Overlying terrace cover may be as thrust fault (RMTF) near Ventura, California. Strandline
young as latest Pleistocene or early Holocene. Modified age based on amino-acid data from fossil shells. Modified
from Dames and Moore consultants (1981) and Lajoie and from Lajoie et al. (1982b).
Sarna-Wojcicki (1982).
B, 40-ka wave-cut platform and overlying marine
sediment offset 45 m across Javon Canyon fault (JCF) near
Ventura, California, yields a long-term displacement rate
of 1.1 m/ka. A stream-cut platform graded to a 3.5-ka
marine strandline is offset 4 m across the same fault, which
yields a similar short-term displacement rate of 1.2 m/ka.
See Figure 6.22A for coseismic slip events on this fault.
Modified from Sarna-Wojcicki et al. (1986).
Along many coastlines marine strandlines and platforms provide relative age control for recent fault activity. If a
wave-cut strandline truncates a bedrock fault, the latest movement on the fault is, of course, older than the strandline.
Conversely, if a strandline is offset across a fault, the latest movement is younger (Figures 6.15 through 6.21). Both the U.S
Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of California Public Utilities Commission use relative strandline-fault
relationships indirectly to define active faults in their assessment of seismic hazards to critical engineered structures in
coastal regions. Both agencies consider a fault potentially active if it has moved in the past 100 ka. This somewhat arbitrary
age is used specifically because the 120-ka to 82-ka strandlines are the most prominent and most accurately dated tectonic
markers along most coastlines.
Where dated, faulted strandlines also yield rates of fault movement. The offset of a strandline or platform divided by
its age is, of course, the average slip rate since the strandline formed. In some areas, progressively greater offsets of
successively older strandlines document continual fault activity and yield long-term average slip rates (Figures 6.15B, 6.19B,
and 6.20) (Sissons and Cornish, 1982; Pillans, 1983; Sarna-Wojcicki et al., 1986). For example, on Sado Island off the
west coast of Honshu, Japan, vertical discontinuities in the profiles of five Pleistocene and Holocene strandlines record
continuous differential movement across the steeply dipping fault that separates the two mountainous parts of the
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COASTAL TECTONICS 114
island (Figure 6.15) (Tamura, 1979). If this fault is vertical, the 120-ka strandline is offset about 75 m, which yields a
long-term slip rate of 0.6 m/ka. The 6-ka strandline is offset about 4 m, which yields a similar short-term slip rate of 0.7
m/ka. Another excellent example of continuous fault slip recorded by progressively greater offset of successively older
marine strandlines is found near the town of Ventura on the southern California coastline (Figure 6.19B) (Sarna-Wojcicki
et al., 1986). There, the wave-cut platform of the 40-ka strandline (Kennedy et al., 1982) is vertically offset about 45 m
across a high-angle reverse fault, which yields an average slip rate of 1.1 m/ka. Nearby, a stream-cut platform graded to an
emergent 3.5-ka strandline is offset 4 m across the same fault, which yields a similar shorter-term slip rate of 1.2 m/ka.
FIGURE 6.21 Closely related folding and faulting
recorded by deformed 82-ka strandline at Half Moon Bay,
California. Structural contours on wave-cut platform
depict drag folds that plunge obliquely into and away from
the vertical fault plane. Orientation of folds indicates
predominant right-lateral fault movement, which is
consistent with regional fault movements. Longitudinal
profiles of strandline and faulted platform record gentle
warps and vertical offset across fault. Shoreline angle of
strandline does not intersect fault plane so local slip vector
and slip rate are not known. Vertical separation of wave-
cut platform across fault revealed by platform profiles on
fault plane (dotted lines; E, east; W, west). Structural
contours derived mainly from shallow borehole and FIGURE 6.22 Coseismic slip events on faults recorded by
seismic refraction data. Modified from Lajoie et al. scarp-derived talus.
(1979b). A, Stream-cut platform graded to 3.5-ka marine strandline
offset 4 m across Javon Canyon fault near Ventura,
California (see Figure 6.19B). At least five discrete slip
events (0.5–1.4 m) are recorded by lenses of scarp-derived
talus preserved below the upthrown block. If these slip
events are coseismic, the average earthquake recurrence
interval for this fault is about 700 yr. Modified from
Sarna-Wojcicki et al. (1986).
B, Vertical component of fault displacement recorded by
offset of 104-ka wave-cut platform at Point Año Nuevo,
California. At least nine discrete slip events are recorded
by lenses of scarp-derived talus and faulted sediment
preserved on the wave-cut platform beneath the upthrown
block. If slip events are coseismic, the average earthquake
recurrence interval is about 12 ka. It should be stressed,
however, that average recurrence intervals have little
meaning if total fault movement occurred during a short
period of time (dotted line). Independently derived ages
for each event are needed to resolve this potentially serious
problem. Modified from Weber and Cotton (1981).
If the size of an average coseismic slip event is assumed or is known from a historical seismic event, it can be divided
into the slip rate to yield the average earthquake recurrence interval. However, where discrete slip events are recorded
geologically, earthquake recurrence can be determined more directly. For example, lenses of scarp-derived Holocene talus
preserved beneath the upthrown block of the high-angle reverse fault near Ventura, California (Figure 6.19B), record at
least five discrete slip events during the past 3.5 ka (Figure 6.22A) (Sarna-Wojcicki et al., 1986). If these slip events were
the authoritative version for attribution.
of coseismic origin, the average vertical displacement was 0.8 m and the average earthquake recurrence interval was 700
yr.
An even longer history of discrete slip events is recorded where a 104-ka marine platform is offset across a strand of a
complex fault zone at Point Año Nuevo about 100 km south of San Francisco on the central California coastline (Lajoie et
al., 1979b). This wave-cut platform
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COASTAL TECTONICS 115
is offset 5.5 m (dip-slip component), which yields an average long-term slip rate of 0.05 m/ka. More importantly, however,
scarp-derived talus that accumulated on the marine platform below the periodically rejuvinated fault scarp records at least
nine slip events over the past 104 ka (Figure 6.22B) (Weber and Cotton, 1981). If coseismic, these slip events, which
averaged 0.6 m, yield an average earthquake recurrence interval of about 12 ka. It should be stressed, however, that if total
fault movement was restricted to relatively short periods of time (Figure 6.22B), average recurrence intervals are of little
use in predicting the time of the next event. Each event must be dated independently to make meaningful predictions of
future events.
Lateral Fault Movement
As indicated previously, lateral fault movement is rarely recorded by marine strandlines, even where strandlines
clearly cross active strike-slip faults. Usually, the amount of offset is ambiguous because of irregularities in or poor
preservation of the paleoshoreline. For example, at Point Año Nuevo on the central California coastline, two Pleistocene
strandlines that cross a major right-lateral fault system appear to be offset across several fault strands (Weber and Lajoie,
1977; Weber and Cotton, 1981). However, because these strandlines must be projected considerable distances (up to 1.0
km) at low angles across some of the fault strands, the individual and cumulative offsets of each strandline are too uncertain
to yield meaningful rates of lateral fault movement.
In some areas, the sense but not the amount of lateral fault movement is expressed by the orientation of drag folds
recorded by marine strandlines. For example, the 82-ka strandline at Half Moon Bay about 60 km northwest of Point Año
Nuevo on the central California coastline records broad crustal warps on both sides of a major fault strand within the
coastal fault system (Figure 6.21) (Lajoie et al., 1979b; Kennedy et al., 1981). Structural contours on the warped wave-cut
platform define a broad syncline that plunges obliquely into the vertical fault plane from the east and a broad anticline that
plunges away from the fault plane to the west. These structural relationships suggest that the syncline and anticline are drag
folds related to right-lateral fault movement, which is consistent with regional fault movements. Unfortunately, the
strandline of this deformed marine platform does not intersect the fault plane and, therefore, neither the local slip vector nor
the slip rate is known. However, where latest Pleistocene stream courses cross the warped marine terrace northeast of the
fault they are deflected toward the axis of the syncline (Figure 6.21), which suggests that fault movement and related
crustal warping were continual over the past 82 ka.
COSEISMIC UPLIFT AND EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE
In several seismically active coastal areas historical coseismic uplift has produced conspicuous emergent marine
strandlines 1–15 m above sea level. The best documented examples of historical coseismic strandlines are found in Japan
(Sugimura and Naruse, 1954; Nakamura et al., 1965; Ota et al., 1976; Matsuda et al., 1978; Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980),
New Zealand (Wellman, 1969; Stevens, 1973), Alaska (Plafker, 1965, 1972), Chile (Plafker and Rubin, 1967; Plafker and
Savage, 1970; Plafker, 1972), and Iran (Page et al., 1979). The historical coseismic strandlines in these areas suggest that
similar higher (older) Holocene strandlines in these and other active-tectonic areas are also of earthquake origin. If this
interpretation is correct, a sequence of emergent Holocene strandlines is a physical record of past earthquakes from which
it should be possible to predict the size and date of the next seismic event.
If the average uplift rate is constant, coseismic uplift events may follow a time-predictable or displacement-predictable
pattern (Figure 6.23) (Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980). In a time-predictable pattern the time between events is proportional to
the size of the preceding event, and, therefore, the date, but not the size, of the next event can be predicted. In a
displacement-predictable pattern the time between events is proportional to the size of the succeeding event, and the size of
the next event can be predicted for any future date, but that date cannot be predicted. Of course, if the period and size of
uplift events are regular, both can be predicted for the next event. In practice, however, strandline elevations and dates are
usually too variable or imprecise to fit any pattern exactly, and, therefore, only average displacements and recurrence
intervals can be derived from sequences of emergent Holocene strandlines. In some cases, the uplift rate is so variable that
no reasonable predictions can be made.
A few examples of coseismic uplift from Japan, Alaska, and New Zealand illustrate some of the possibilities and
limitations in deriving detailed seismic histories from sequences of emergent Holocene strandlines.
Japan
The Japanese archipelago, which lies along the leading, overthrust margin of the Eurasian tectonic plate in the western
Pacific Ocean, is one of the most seismically
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COASTAL TECTONICS 116
active areas on Earth (Tarr, 1974). Great intraplate megathrust earthquakes occur along the major subduction zone that
forms the eastern boundary of the archipelago, and smaller, but still potentially destructive, interplate earthquakes occur
along its complexly faulted eastern boundary. Particularly good examples of coseismic strandlines are found on the Boso
Peninsula, the Muroto Peninsula, and Kikai Island along the overthrust Pacific Coast and on Awashima Island and the Ogi
Peninsula of Sado Island along the block-faulted Japan Sea Coast (Figure 6.24).
FIGURE 6.24 Generalized tectonic map of Japan showing
locations of emergent marine strandlines produced by
historical coseismic uplift. O, Ogi Peninsula of Sado
Island, 1802 earthquake (see Figure 6.13A for strandline
profiles and Figures 6.15A and 6.24 for location); A,
FIGURE 6.23 Theoretical patterns of coseismic uplift (or Awashima Island, 1964 Niigata earthquake; B, Boso
fault movement). Peninsula, 1703 and 1923 Kanto earthquakes (see
A, If average uplift rate is constant, the incremental Figure 6.25 for uplift history); M, Muroto Peninsula, 1707,
coseismic uplift events may follow either a time- 1855, and 1947 Nankaido earthquakes (see Figure 6.26A
predictable or a displacement-predictable pattern. In a for uplift history; see Figure 6.16 for strandline and
time-predictable pattern the time between events (T) is geodetic data); K, Kikai Jima, no historical coseismic
proportional to the size of the preceding displacement strandlines, but see Figure 6.26B for Holocene uplift
(PD). In this case, the time, but not the size, of the next history.
event can be predicted. In a displacement-predictable
pattern the time between events is proportional to the size
of the succeeding displacement (SD). In this case, the size
of the next event can be predicted for any future date,
which cannot be predicted. In practice, strandline
elevations and ages are usually too uncertain to reveal
precise patterns of uplift. Modified from Shimazaki and
Nakata (1980).
B, If a displaced marker (e.g., wave-cut platform) is dated
but individual events are not dated independently, their
intervals and age ranges can be estimated from the average
displacement rate. However, if total displacement is highly
irregular (dotted line), average displacement intervals,
rates, and age values are meaningless. Independent ages of
events are needed to establish displacement pattern.
Four emergent Holocene strandlines (Numa I-IV) form prominent terraces around the southern tip of the Boso
Peninsula about 80 km south of Tokyo (Figures 6.3A, 6.24, and 6.25) (Sugimura and Naruse, 1954; Matsuda et al., 1978).
Isobases on the planes defined by these curved strandlines reveal progressive uplift and northward tilt of the southernmost
part of the peninsula. Radiocarbon dates on fossil shells from the three highest strandlines (Numa I-III terraces) yield an
average uplift rate of 3.9 m/ka (Figure 6.25A). The lowest major strandline (Numa IV or Genroku terrace) at 5 m and a
minor strandline at 1.0 m were formed by uplift during the great Kanto earthquakes of 1703 and 1923, respectively. The
ages and vertical distances between successively higher pairs of dated strandlines yield an average uplift per event of about 6 m
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and an average recurrence interval of about 1.5 ka. More importantly, however, the uplift and age data appear to follow a
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COASTAL TECTONICS 117
time-predictable pattern. After being corrected for probable postearthquake subsidence (currently 1–2 mm/yr), the
strandline data from the Boso Peninsula indicate that the next uplift event similar to the combined 1703 and 1923 events
will occur in 0.8–1.3 ka (Figure 6.25B). Other workers (Nakata et al., 1980; and Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980; Yonekura
and Shimazaki, 1980) also studied the emergent Holocene strandlines on the Boso Peninsula and reached similar
conclusions. However, some of these workers (Yonekura and Shimazaki, 1980) suggested that the largest uplift events may
have accompanied moderate-sized earthquakes on steep, secondary faults within the overthrust plate of the Sagami
subduction zone and that the smallest uplift events may have accompanied larger earthquakes on the main but more gently
dipping thrust fault. If this interpretation is correct, the 1703 Kanto earthquake may have been smaller than the 1923 event,
even though the relative coseismic uplift would suggest otherwise. Interestingly, at Oiso, a densely populated suburb of
Tokyo, about 70 km northwest of the Boso Peninsula, the sum of the uplifts that accompanied the 1703 and 1923
earthquakes is less than the uplift required to maintain the long-term uplift rate derived from older strandlines. This
relationship suggests that the next uplift event in the Oiso area is overdue. Consequently, the Oiso area may currently be at
greater seismic risk than the southern Boso Peninsula (Matsuda et al., 1978).
FIGURE 6.26 Coseismic uplift on Muroto Peninsula and
Kikai Jima, Japan.
A, Historical coseismic strandlines at Murotsu Harbor.
Uplift events appear to follow a time-predictable pattern
and yield an average short-term uplift rate of 12.5 mm/yr,
which is about six times higher than the long-term rate of
1.7–2.0 m/ka derived from 6-ka and 120-ka strandlines. If
the short-term rate prevails, the next coseismic event
should occur in the year 2040. If the long-term rate
prevails, the next event (or sequence of closely spaced
events) will not occur for another 3 ka. (See Figure 6.16
for more uplift data.)
B, Radiocarbon-dated strandlines on Kikai Island, Japan,
appear to follow a time-predictable pattern. If correct, a
FIGURE 6.25 Coseismic uplift, Boso Peninsula, Japan. large coseismic uplift event should have occurred between
A, Average uplift appears to be constant, and coseismic 1400 and 1600. There is no geologic or historical evidence
uplift events appear to follow a time-predictable pattern. for such an event, so the area may be overdue for a large
B, Uplift pattern indicates that the next event (or sequence earthquake. Modified from Shimazaki and Nakata (1980).
of events) will occur in A.D. 3000. Interearthquake See Figure 6.24 for locations.
subsidence (strain accumulation) from geodetic data is
incorporated into prediction model. See Figure 6.24 for
location and Figure 6.3A for profile of strandlines.
Modified from Matsuda et al. (1978).
At Murotsu harbor on the southern tip of the Muroto Peninsula on the island of Shikoku (Figure 6.24), the uplifts
associated with the great Nankaido earthquakes of 1707 (1.8 m), 1855 (1.2 m), and 1947 (1.2 m) were determined by
primitive but reasonably accurate harbor soundings and by a vertically displaced strandline defined by barnacles (Figures
6.16 and 6.26A) (Sawamura, 1953; Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980). These historical data yield a constant short-term uplift
rate of 12.5 mm/yr, which is about six times higher than the
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COASTAL TECTONICS 118
long-term rate of 1.7–2.0 m/ka derived from the 6-ka and 120-ka strandlines (Yoshikawa et al., 1964; Kanaya, 1978). If the
exceptionally high uplift rate produced by historical coseismic events is maintained, the next large earthquake should occur
in 2040 (Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980). However, if the long-term rate prevails, which seems more likely, the next event, or a
series of closely spaced events, should not occur for another 3 ka. Tide-gauge and geodetic data from central Japan, which
reveal the spatial and temporal patterns of interearthquake crustal deformation between the 1855 and 1947 events, indicate
that because of the nonlinearity of strain buildup and the significant permanent deformation, simple recurrence calculations
from strandline data may overestimate the true interval between major earthquakes by a factor of 2–3 in the Nankai area
(Thatcher, 1984). On the other hand, the three closely spaced historical uplift events on the Muroto Peninsula and the two
closely spaced events on the Boso Peninsula suggest that the large vertical spacing between emergent Holocene strandlines
in these and possibly other areas may represent multiple, not single, earthquakes. If this interpretation is correct,
earthquakes at a particular locality on a convergent plate boundary may occur in relatively tight clusters separated by
considerable periods of time (1–3 ka), in which case the date of the next event would be difficult if not impossible to
predict.
On Kikai Island, the easternmost island in the Ryukyu archipelago of southern Japan, radiocarbon dates of fossil
corals from four Holocene strandlines yield a uniform uplift rate of 1.8 m/ka over the past 6 ka and indicate that coseismic
uplift followed a time-predictable pattern (Figures 6.24 and 6.26B) (Nakata et al., 1978, 1979; Shimazaki and Nakata,
1980). If the time-predictable model is correct, there should have been a large earthquake between A.D. 1400 and 1600.
The lack of historical or geological evidence for an earthquake of this age suggests that Kikai Island, like the Oiso area near
Tokyo, is overdue for a major earthquake (Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980).
Two very different earthquake recurrence intervals are recorded by emergent Holocene strandlines on Sado and
Awashima Islands in the intensely faulted area off the west coast of central Honshu, the largest Japanese island
(Figure 6.24). Seven emergent Pleistocene and Holocene strandlines occur on the Ogi Peninsula, the southernmost tip of
Sado Island (Figure 6.15A) (Ota et al., 1976). The lowest (2 m) strandline was formed by uplift during a major earthquake
in 1802 (Figure 6.13A). This strandline and the next higher (4 m) 6-ka strandline are both tilted northward about 2.5×10í2,
which indicates that the 1802 event was the only tilt event in the past 6 ka. The uniform difference of 2 m between these
two strandlines is ascribed to a 2-m highstand of sea level at about 6 ka BP (Ota et al., 1976). A more likely explanation is
that the area was uplifted uniformly after 6 ka BP but before the 1802 tilt event. In any case, dividing the coseismic tilt
produced in 1802 into the long-term tilt rate derived from the 120-ka strandline yields a recurrence interval for seismic
events of 5–9 ka, which is consistent with the >6-ka interval documented by the two lowest strandlines.
At Awashima, which lies about 70 km northeast of Sado Island (Figure 6.24), tilted strandlines yield a much shorter
recurrence interval (Nakamura et al., 1965). Awashima was uplifted a maximum of 1.8 m and tilted northward about
2.4×10í4 during the 1964 Niigata earthquake. The long-term tilt rate derived from the 82-ka strandline at 50–70 m above
sea level is 4.3×10 í4/ka. Dividing this tilt rate by the 1964 tilt yields an average recurrence interval of about 1.5 ka. The
different earthquake recurrence intervals for the faults near the Ogi Peninsula and Awashima Island demonstrate that
similar faults within the same tectonic province can have very different displacement histories.
Alaska
The narrow zone comprising the Aleutian archipelago and the south coast of mainland Alaska lies along the overthrust
margin of the North American tectonic plate in the north Pacific Ocean. At numerous localities in this seismically active
area, great interplate megathrust earthquakes are recorded by emergent Holocene and historical strandlines.
On Middleton Island (Figure 6.18A) emergent Holocene strandlines record six coseismic uplift events over the past 4.5
ka (Figure 6.27A) (Plafker and Rubin, 1967, 1978). The lowest strandline at 3.5 m above sea level was produced by uplift
associated with the great 1964 earthquake in southern Alaska. Radiocarbon dates on peat and wood from the wave-cut
platforms of the five highest strandlines indicate that the time interval between uplift events increased gradually from about
0.5 ka to 1.4 ka and that the uplift rate decreased from 14 m/ka to 5.6 m/ka. If the island subsided slightly between major
earthquakes, the uplift that accompanied each earthquake was greater than the vertical spacing between strandlines. It is not
clear if the uplift events, which ranged from 7–12 m and averaged about 9 m, followed a displacement-predictable or a
time-predictable pattern, but it is obvious that the 3.5-m uplift associated with the 1964 earthquake was not sufficiently
large to maintain even the diminishing uplift rate (Figure 6.27A). In effect, at least half of the stress accumulated since the
formation of the second lowest strandline at
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COASTAL TECTONICS 119
about 1.4 ka BP has yet to be released. Consequently, if the Holocene trend continues, coseismic uplift at least as large as
the 1964 event should occur on Middleton Island sometime in the near future (Plafker and Rubin, 1978).
FIGURE 6.27 Coseismic uplift, Gulf of Alaska.
A, Radiocarbon-dated and historical coseismic strandlines on Middleton Island, Alaska. Average uplift rate is decreasing and
interval between events is increasing while the size of each event has remained fairly constant. Average uplift is 0.95 m/ka. The
1964 coseismic uplift did not bring the island up to the long-term rate, which suggests that another event is due in the near
future. Present sea level used as tectonic datum. Modified from Plafker and Rubin (1978).
B, Radiocarbon-dated coseismic strandlines at Icy Cape (about 300 km east of Middleton Island on the Alaska mainland) yield a
fairly constant uplift of about 1 m/ka. Uplift events appear to follow a time-predictable pattern. If this pattern continues, the
next event is due in the near future. Modified from Plafker et al. (1981). See Figures 6.17C and 6.18A for 1964 coseismic
strandline deformation.
The focal region of the 1964 Alaskan earthquake lies north and west of Middleton Island (Figure 6.18A), and a
seismic gap lies to the east. Consequently, the next uplift event to affect the island may accompany a megathrust earthquake
in the area of the seismic gap, possibly on the submarine Pamplona Fault (Plafker and Rubin, 1978). This interpretation is
supported by data from Icy Cape, a broad sedimentary headland about 300 km east of Middleton Island on the Alaska
mainland and within the area of the seismic gap. There, depositional strandlines dated at 4.9 ka, 2.4 ka, and 1.3 ka BP by
radiocarbon techniques record at least three uplift events that followed a time-predictable pattern over the past 5 ka
(Figure 6.27B) (Plafker et al., 1981). The lowest (1.3 ka) strandline may have been formed during the same seismic event
that produced the second lowest strandline dated at 1.35 ka on Middleton Island (Figure 6.27A). If the 1.2–1.3-ka time span
between strandlines at Icy Cape is the recurrence interval for the area of the present seismic gap, the next uplift event is
overdue. Presumably, this event would make up some or all of the apparent deficiency in uplift on Middleton Island. An
interesting aspect of the strandline sequence at Icy Cape is that the vertical distance between the 4.9-ka and 2.4-ka
strandlines is 27 m (Figure 6.27B), which seems too large for a single uplift event. If uplift averaged 10–15 m per event, a
14-m uplift at about 3.8 ka BP may not have been recorded or its strandline may have been destroyed by subsequent wave
erosion (Plafker et al., 1981).
New Ze aland
The large southwest Pacific islands of New Zealand straddle the convergent boundary between the Australia-India
tectonic plate to the west and the Pacific plate to the east. Northeast of the islands, the Australia-India plate is being thrust
the authoritative version for attribution.
eastward over the Pacific plate, and southwest of the islands the relationship is reversed. The islands themselves are a
manifestation of the uplift along the transition between the two opposing subduction zones on the same interplate boundary
(Walcott, 1984). Within this complex structural area both interplate and intraplate earthquakes are common. At several
localities, especially along the southeast coast of North Island, large earthquakes are recorded by emergent Holocene
strandlines.
At least five coseismic uplift events are recorded by six
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COASTAL TECTONICS 120
bouldery beach ridges up to 27 m above sea level on the rapidly uplifting coastline at Turakirae Head, the southernmost tip
of North Island (Figure 6.28) (Wellman, 1969; Stevens, 1973). The two lowest strandlines at 7 and 3 m above sea level,
which were formed during historical earthquakes in 1460 and 1855, respectively, appear to record regional northwestward
tilt across the entire southern tip of the island, whereas the four highest strandlines appear to record intense crustal warping
between two local faults parallel to the offshore subduction zone (Wellman, 1969). However, all six strandlines may reflect
regional tilt (Stevens, 1973). In either case, the five coseismic uplift events represented by these strandlines range from 2.5
to 9 m, and average 5.4 m (Figure 6.28). An assumption of constant uplift yields tentative ages for the four highest
strandlines and also yields an average uplift rate of about 4 m/ka (see Figure 6.7) (Wellman, 1969). These graphically
derived dates appear to indicate that uplift events follow a time-predictable pattern, which would indicate that the next
event should occur in about 500 yr (Wellman, 1969). However, the pattern of uplift is inherent in the assumption of
constant uplift—it is not independently demonstrated. Consequently, no firm estimate for the date of the next coseismic
uplift event can be made.
FIGURE 6.28 Coseismic Holocene strandlines at Turakirae Head, North Island, New Zealand. Highest (6 ka) strandline dated
by graphical techniques (see Figures 6.5B and 6.7) assuming constant uplift rate (4 m/ka). Rate interpolated to estimate ages of
lower strandlines. If uplift follows a time-predictable pattern, the next event should occur in 0.5 ka. It should be stressed,
however, that these strandlines must be dated independently to demonstrate constant uplift and the time-predictable pattern.
Modified from Wellman (1969).
The often disparate and inconclusive estimates of past and future seismic events derived from sequences of emergent
Holocene strandlines in the three areas discussed here (Japan, Alaska, and New Zealand) illustrate many of the difficulties
encountered in interpreting even excellent historical and geological strandline data. However, in spite of these difficulties
sequences of coseismic strandlines are among the most complete records of past earthquakes and in many coastal areas
provide extremely valuable insights into the distribution of earthquakes in both space and time.
FUTURE RESEARCH
This brief review of coastal tectonics illustrates the breadth and scope of neotectonic deformation and seismic history
that can be derived from the study of marine strandlines, which so conspicuously record the dynamic interaction between
the fluctuating sea level and mobile tectonic plates along many of the world's active coastlines. Without sea-level changes,
discrete strandlines would not be produced and the long-term record of Pleistocene crustal movements in coastal areas
would be extremely difficult if not impossible to extract from a relative sea-level record. Conversely, without vertical
crustal movements, a detailed history of sea-level fluctuations would be virtually impossible to reconstruct. As our
understanding of this complex interaction increases we discover new problems that require the reinterpretation of existing
data and the acquisition of new, more precise information. It should be stressed, however, that even at our present level of
understanding the uncertainties inherent in extracting past crustal movements and seismic histories from relative sea-level
records are far outweighed by the wealth of useful information obtained.
Following is a list of some of the most pressing problems and needs that must be addressed if we are to progress in the
new and rapidly evolving field of coastal tectonics.
• Theoretical models relating sea-level changes and vertical crustal movements should be developed. General
relationships are expressed by Eqs. (6.1) and (6.8) and Figures 6.5, 6.6, and 6.7. Theoretical models will provide a
framework in which tectonic and sea-level data can be interpreted and evaluated. They will also provide graphical
and mathematical means of correlating and dating strandlines. Models will also provide a coherent framework for
compiling and comparing strandline data from different areas.
• The resolution of existing radiometric, chemical, and paleontologic dating techniques should be im
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COASTAL TECTONICS 121
proved and the ranges of these techniques extended. New dating techniques should be developed, especially for
the period between 100–1000 ka BP.
• Both Pleistocene and Holocene (including historical) strandlines on many more coastlines throughout the world
should be mapped and dated. Particular attention should be paid to precise ages and elevations. These data are
needed to resolve potentially serious problems of geoidal distortion and regional hydro-isostatic crustal
movements. If geoidal distortion is significant on a time scale of 10–100 ka, regional sea-level curves should be
developed as tectonic datums. If geoidal distortion is relatively insignificant, its magnitude will help to establish
uncertainty limits for rates of crustal deformation. In short, both Pleistocene and Holocene sea-level curves should
be improved to provide more accurate estimates of tectonic deformation.
• More effective tide-gauge stations and geodetic networks to monitor ongoing crustal movements and regional
sea-level changes should be developed. Particular care should be taken in comparing data from these two sources
and from other historical and geological sources.
• Detailed studies of coseismic strandlines on rapidly deforming coastlines should be undertaken to establish
patterns of paleoseismicity. Particular attention should be placed on precise dating.
• Existing data on the age and elevation of coastlines throughout the world should be compiled to establish regional
patterns of crustal deformation and sea-level change.
• Submerged strandlines should be mapped and dated. New techniques for conducting these difficult and expensive
investigations should be developed.
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 125
7
Tectonic Geomorphology of Escarpments and Mountain Fronts
LARRY MAYER
Miami University
ABSTRACT
The morphology of fault-generated mountain fronts and escarpments can indicate relative tectonic activity. Fault slip rates can
be estimated using erosion rates or dated landform elements. The use of landforms to solve for the timing and magnitude of
tectonic perturbations is analogous to an inverse problem where given a landform morphology one must solve for the variables
that caused or affected it. Models that predict the rate of landform evolution can be used to solve for the ages of uplifts when
properly calibrated with independent age determinations. Basalt flows or air fall tuffs are useful for establishing a denudation
chronology and permit erosion rates to be calculated. Future research should develop additional relations among tectonics and
landforms rendering the solution to this inverse problem as unique as possible.
INTRODUCTION
Tectonic geomorphology is the study of landforms that result from tectonism and the interaction between tectonic and
geomorphic processes. Tectonic geomorphologic studies constrain solutions to an inverse problem: given selected
morphologic attributes of tectonic landforms, can one determine the corresponding tectonic history; or similarly, given
information about the tectonic history, can one determine how landforms will evolve? Studies of tectonic geomorphology
can discern the nature, timing, and distribution of faulting and seismicity that have occurred over tens of thousands of
years, and in the case of mountain fronts and escarpments, an order of magnitude longer. Instrumental recordings of seismic
data are available for a very short time; historical records of earthquakes are also useful. Studies of paleoseismicity, which
is past seismicity based on interpretation of small-scale geomorphic or stratigraphic features, enable scientists to determine
the past behavior of seismogenic structures and, hence, better evaluate the risk to society resulting from future earthquakes.
The length of time a landform records depends on its survival time, or how rapidly the landform evolves.
Two types of landform that have long survival times are escarpments and mountain fronts. Other tectonic landforms
may have considerably shorter survival times. The relation among the different types of tectonic records is illustrated in
Figure 7.1. The precision of the record is inversely proportional to the length of record so that as the time recorded
increases we cannot be certain about short-term variations in uplift. In addition, each type of record measures the uplift
history of a landform differently. This difference is sometimes expressed by different average uplift rates, which are
calculated by
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 126
dividing the total (cumulative) uplift by the period of record. The variation of uplift rate estimates reflects short-term
tectonic fluctuations that may be superimposed on long-term trends. Thus, long-term averages of past uplift rates serve to
constrain forecasts of uplift. How mountain fronts and escarpments evolve and several methods for their use in tectonic
geomorphology are discussed below.
FIGURE 7.1 Graphs showing hypothetical uplift history by plotting cumulative uplift versus the length of record. Mountain
fronts record long periods of time, whereas fault scarps and historical earthquake data record progressively shorter time
periods. The circle-in-square on the mountain fronts graph outlines the time period shown on the fault scarp graph. Likewise,
the circle on the fault scarps graph indicates the time period covered by the historical earthquakes graph.
The most popular early attempt to relate landform morphology with tectonics was William Morris Davis' cycle of
erosion. Davis (1899) envisioned a closed geomorphic system where, following a pulse of rapid uplift, landforms evolved
through a sequence of characteristic landforms. Each landform assemblage in the Davisian sequence of “youth,”
“maturity,” and “old age” stages differed morphologically from the others. Davis' cycle of erosion was highly intuitive and
logical but suffered under the blow of equifinality. In other words it was possible to produce the landform assemblages in
each stage by variables other than sequential denudation following rapid uplift. For example, rock types and geologic
structure differ from area to area, and the effectiveness of erosional geomorphic processes also varies; yet these differences
were not accounted for in the cycle of erosion. Despite the shortcomings of the Davisian scheme, the basic concept of
landform adjustment following tectonism remains intact. The controversy surrounding the Davisian cycle of erosion may
have provided the impetus for quantitative field investigations, the key to unraveling landform history.
Recent studies (Bull and McFadden, 1977; Wallace, 1977, 1978; Bucknam and Anderson, 1979) have examined the
interaction of tectonics and landforms using an empirical approach. In these studies dating or determining rates of change
of a landform or landform assemblage is an ultimate goal on which tectonic interpretations may be based. Data that allow
the rates of landform change to be estimated can be used to determine how landforms may respond to tectonic
perturbations. Hillslopes can result from tectonism such as faulting, and, therefore, hillslope evolution and slope processes
are fundamental to understanding how erosion and tectonics interact to produce any given landform.
SLOPES
Slopes are basic landform elements that are naturally combined to form landform assemblages. Hillslopes are that
portion of the sloping landscape within a drainage basin that contribute sediment (by several transport processes) and
runoff to streams. Slope systems denote landform assemblages that operate or evolve as an integrated package of surficial
processes and are commonly delineated by their topographic expression.
Equilibrium in slope systems can refer either to slope
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forms that tend to persist over time or to conditions where the rate at which regolith or soil develops is balanced by the rate
of soil removal. In the latter context, equilibrium slopes are suggested by field observations that show soil (sensu lato)
thickness to be relatively constant over a slope. Constant soil thickness requires a balance between production of soil by
weathering and its removal by erosion. Departures from this balance are either tipped toward erosion or weathering, and the
resulting slopes are termed, respectively, weathering-limited and transport-limited slopes (Young, 1972).
Weathering-limited slopes denote a condition where the rate of soil removal exceeds that of soil production. Bare rock
slopes are an example of a weathering-limited slope. Transport-limited slopes refer to a condition where the rate of soil
production does not limit the rate of soil removal. A valley-side slope cut by drainages on the erodible materials of
“badlands” is an example of a transport-limited slope.
As a slope erodes, its forms may change. Four types of slope evolution that describe some common patterns of slope
change are decline, replacement, retreat, and rounding. Each type of slope evolution is the geometric result of the
distribution of net erosion along a slope. During the history of some slopes, more than one type of slope evolution can take
place. The relation between slope evolution and erosion can be described using a mass-flux diagram (Figure 7.2). Mass flux
is a rate of material movement per unit of slope area and is analogous to the concept of erodibility.
A mass-flux diagram illustrates the position on a slope where either erosion or deposition is most efficient. Slope
decline is important in areas with stable base-level and mature topography. Though characterized by erosion throughout the
length of the slope, decline results from more effective erosion near the upper portions adjacent to the drainage divides. The
situation of parallel retreat occurs when erosion is constant along a slope and therefore vertical lowering of the slope occurs
everywhere at the same rate. Parallel retreat is common, but not restricted to, areas where the upper surface is protected from
erosion by a resistant cap rock. Slope replacement describes the replacement of the original slope by one controlled by
deposition. Material eroded from the escarpment is deposited at the base of the slope and accumulates at a slope less steep
than the original escarpment. With time, the depositional slope replaces the original slope.
FIGURE 7.2 Mass-flux diagram illustrating the differences in slope models in terms of how erosion or deposition is distributed
along the profile. The solid lines mark the initial condition, and the dotted lines indicate profile change after some time. On the
lower portion of the figure, white areas of the profile indicate erosion while the dark areas (for rounding and replacement)
indicate deposition.
Slope rounding describes a symmetric erosion-deposition feature of some slopes that decreases the curvature all along a
slope. Fault scarps in alluvium show this form of evolution. Other models of slope evolution can be envisioned by relating
the amount of material eroded on a slope to some morphologic factor such as slope gradient or slope curvature. Slope
rounding and decline are similar except for the deposition that is found in slope-rounding evolution. In addition, as a slope
evolves, the dominant pattern of evolution may change. For example, a slope may initially change by slope replacement and
later by some other evolutionary type. In the case of fault scarps formed in alluvium, early slope development is
characterized by slope replacement and later by slope rounding (see Nash, Chapter 12, this volume).
FAULT-GENERATED MOUNTAIN FRONTS
The Basin and Range physiographic province of the United States is characterized by fault-bounded mountain blocks.
These mountains, formed where faults displaced the topographic surface, are termed fault-generated mountains
(Figure 7.3). The morphology of mountain fronts is strongly affected by the width of the range. The range width determines
the maximum possible drainage basin size that can develop. As virtually all of the area within the mountain block is sloping
(i.e., draining), drainage basins fill all available space. For a given mountain range, larger watersheds that tend to have a
characteristic shape also have a regular spacing along the mountain front. The spacing depends on basin shape. Regular
spacing of basins measured as a ratio between the distances of the basin mouths along the range front to length of the basin
was noted by Wallace (1978).
Drainage basin characteristics within the mountain range, primarily shape and size, affect the morphology of the
mountain front and how that front may evolve. Large circular watersheds do not effectively fill space at
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 128
the mountain front and therefore, depending on other factors, may allow for extensive triangular facets (Figure 7.4). In
some instances, triangular facets represent the eroded plane of faulting at the mountain front, and the existence of facets
indicates that sufficient time to obliterate them has not elapsed.
FIGURE 7.3 Idealized fault-bounded mountain front and related terminology.
The overall morphology of typical Basin and Range mountain blocks reflects their integrated erosional-tectonic
history. Because a lag time exists between the time of faulting at the structural front and transmission of this base-level
perturbation upstream, the tectonic history may be reflected differently in different parts of the drainage basin. For this
reason, morphologic studies have emphasized the geomorphic features near the mountain front.
Several morphologic features of mountain blocks may reflect recent tectonism. Bull and McFadden (1977) suggested
that the sinuosity of a mountain front is related to the time elapsed since active high-angle faulting ceased (see Keller,
Chapter 8, this volume). Linear or curvilinear mountain fronts have low sinuosity and may represent recent fault
movement, while mountain fronts deeply embayed by pediments have high sinuosity and may represent tectonic quiescence
or rock control.
FIGURE 7.4 Relation between basin shape and morphology of the mountain front.
A maximum limit on sinuosity is achieved where the spur ridges separating adjacent drainage basins are not eroded
away. This relation is shown schematically in Figure 7.5. Using simple geometric shapes for hypothetical pediment
embayments one can show that the maximum possible sinuosity is dependent on drainage-basin spacing. Given a
drainage-basin spacing and given the constraint that the spur ridges do not erode back, sinuosity increases as erosion
progresses, and, therefore, sinuosity increases with time. Unfortunately, the constraint that spur ridges do not erode is not
valid. Spur ridges do erode but at rates that are much slower than the stream erodes it valley. With decreasing stream length
and, hence, decreasing mountain width, the rate of stream valley erosion may approach that of the spur ridges. Thus for
narrow ranges, sinuosity may be low and practically independent of time since faulting. In general, sinuosity is dependent
on basin spacing, time, and range width.
Stream valley erosion, and particularly the morphology of a stream valley in cross section, has also been proposed as a
tool in interpreting tectonic activity. Bull and McFadden (1977) suggested that the width of the valley floor near the
mountain front is a useful index that measures effectiveness of stream downcutting (see Keller, Chapter 8, this volume).
Bull and McFadden suggested that a simple ratio of valley floor width to average height of the adjacent divides be used as
this index and demonstrated statistically significant variation in the ratio for different tectonic settings.
Stream-valley morphology affords a fruitful ap
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FIGURE 7.5 Hypothetical mountain front used to derive a relation among sinuosity, range width, and basin spacing. In this
derivation it is assumed that the spur ridges do not erode back. Different geometric shapes for the embayment can be used but
show a similar linear relationship between sinuosity and basin spacing.
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 129
proach to tectonic history based on several geomorphic postulates proposed in the context of Basin and Range
physiography. First, streams downcut in response to vertical uplift, and downcutting becomes less important as the stream
gradient readjusts to the new lowered base level. Second, when the mode of erosion of the valley-side slopes is dominated
by slope retreat, then morphology of the stream valley is related to both the rate of stream downcutting and the rate of slope
retreat. This concept is illustrated on Figure 7.6 and simply states that the volume of material removed when a stream valley
is formed is related to both stream and hillslope erosional processes and that the resultant valley depends on the relative
rates of the two processes.
FIGURE 7.6 Conceptual representation of valley erosion. The relative rates of two processes, stream downcutting and slope
recession, determine the morphology of the resultant valley.
Morphologic descriptions of stream valleys, within the context of the specific postulates noted above, can then be used
to make some meaningful interpretation. A simple scheme for describing stream-valley morphology is shown on Figure 7.7.
The V ratio incorporates information about shape of the valley that can, in turn, be related to vertical uplift. V ratios near 1
indicate a U-shaped valley. Ratios greater than 1 indicate a valley much wider than deep, whereas very small ratios
represent active downcutting that is common for streams flowing in V-shaped valleys.
FIGURE 7.7 A numerical index of valley morphology can
be calculated by comparing the area of the actual valley
cross section with the area of a semicircle with radius FIGURE 7.8 Comparison between generalized valley
equal to the height of the adjacent drainage divide. morphologies and their associated V ratios. The V ratio is
defined on Figure 7.7. Larger ratios indicate that slope
recession is more important than stream downcutting and,
depending on the actual rates, may indicate tectonic
quiescence.
V ratios, shown in Figure 7.8, are not unique. The same V ratio may describe valleys with different morphology;
however, these ratios are generally comparable when the valley depths are about equal between groups or are normalized
for valley depth. Larger V ratios may indicate relatively less active vertical tectonism.
FAULT-GENERATED ESCARPMENTS
Fault-generated escarpments are characterized by a cliff or free face and an associated talus slope. Rock materials fall
off the free face and accumulate on the talus slope. Free-face slope angles are commonly greater than 40°, whereas the
angles on the talus slopes are largely controlled by the angle of repose of the materials comprising the talus. Some
escarpments show a slope-replacement mode of evolution (Figures 7.9 and 7.10), while others show slope retreat.
The location of drainage divides with respect to the cliff face in large part determines the morphologic evolution or
escarpments. The spatial relationships be
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 130
tween drainage networks, discharge, and the escarpment physically limit such morphologic characteristics as linearity,
hypsometry, and dissection. Where an escarpment is also a drainage divide (Figure 7.11) there is a tendency toward
maintaining linearity and also for a slope-retreat mode of escarpment evolution. The Mogollon Rim in central Arizona is an
example of a high escarpment that is also a drainage divide (Figure 7.11), separating flow onto the Colorado Plateau from
flow into the Basin and Range province. The Hurricane Cliffs are another example where linearity is maintained to some
extent by the coincidence of drainage divide and escarpment. The Grand Wash Cliffs, in contrast, are deeply embayed
(Figure 7.12). This is due in part to their antiquity, but also because the main drainage divide did not coincide with the
escarpment. Significant drainages cut the Grand Wash Cliffs, the largest of which is the Colorado River.
FIGURE 7.9 The 1887 rupture along the Pitaycachi Fault scarp in Sonora, Mexico, that shows the early stages of profile
evolution to be characterized by slope replacement.
Streams flowing across fault-generated escarpments erode valley embayments. Many of the embayments in their most
simplified planimetric form resemble triangular cuts into the uplifted escarpment. We can consider the embayment length
(the distance upstream from escarpment front to the head of the embayment) to be the height of the triangle and the width
of the embayment at the escarpment front to be the base of the triangle. The geometry of these embayments is dependent on
the size of the stream in the valley. The relationship between stream length and embayment length is linear. For
embayments eroded into cliffs around the Grand Canyon, embayment length is proportional to the length of the stream.
These relations imply that the regression line relating stream length and embayment length for an escarpment has temporal
significance and can be used for relative dating of escarpments. Older escarpments should plot above younger escarpments,
all else being comparable.
Another factor influencing the geometry of escarpment embayments is the rate of slope retreat. The more rapid the
slope retreat relative to headward advance of the embayment, the wider the embayment mouth. Because the embayment's
length and width dimensions grow at different rates, the resulting geometry can be referred to as anisometric and, where
well described by
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 131
a power function, as allometric. The allometric characteristics of embayment growth may permit morphology-derived
dating of certain fault-generated escarpments. In any event, the width of the embayment mouth of larger streams, it seems
reasonable to assume, is a function of time.
FIGURE 7.10 The Vermillion Cliffs in northern Arizona is at this locale characterized by slope replacement. The talus slope
consists of debris that forms at the expense of the cliff face.
FIGURE 7.11 Profiles of two escarpments. The one on the left has drainage over the escarpment face, a situation that promotes
dissection of the escarpment. The profile on the right shows that the escarpment and the drainage divide are one and the same, a
situation that promotes linearity regardless of age.
RATES OF GEOMORPHIC PROCESSES
Rates of stream downcutting, escarpment retreat, pedimentation, and other geomorphic processes permit estimates of
the rates of tectonic processes such as vertical uplift. Pediments, for example, are bedrock surfaces formed by erosion of a
mountain block that gently slope toward the basin and commonly are covered by some
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS
south and eastern portions of the photo are tributaries to the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon.
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FIGURE 7.12 Computer-enhanced topographic image of the Shivwitz Plateau in northwestern Arizona. North is at top of
photo. The north-south trending upper Grand Wash Cliffs shows deep embayment by streams traversing. The canyons in the
132
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 133
thickness of gravel (Figure 7.13). They form only under conditions where the rate of piedmont erosion is greater than
the rate of uplift across a range-bounding fault. Where rock control is not a factor, pediments represent a period of tectonic
inactivity and thus are binary in nature. Pediment widths are dependent on the time since active faulting along the range
front and also on drainage basin slope and length. Estimates of pedimentation rates are generally in the range of 300–1000 m
per million years (m.y.) (Young and Brennan, 1974; Wallace 1978). A pediment 2 km wide may therefore represent a
period of tectonic quiescence that lasted greater than 2 m.y. Pediments that form in conjunction with cliff retreat from
fault-generated escarpments can be used in an analogous fashion.
Basalt flows and volcanic ash deposits provide an unique opportunity to determine the ages of tectonic events and the
rates of geomorphic processes. They can preserve a datum that records previous river levels or a prefaulting topography.
For example, if a basalt flowed down a river channel and subsequent tectonically induced entrenchment results in
topographic inversion with the old channel preserved by the basalt, then the amount and geometry of downcutting can be
determined (Figure 7.14).
The Grand Wash in northwestern Arizona is an example of topographic inversion (Figure 7.15). Basalts flowed down
the Grand Wash valley about 7 m.y. ago (Hamblin et al., 1981). Base-level fall, perhaps related to the downcutting by the
Colorado River, resulted in entrenchment. When downcutting by large streams is caused by tectonic uplift, the total amount
of downcutting approaches the total amount of uplift. Because a former river level is both preserved and dated by basalt
flows, average downcutting rates can be calculated, which turn out to be 26 m/m.y. for the Grand Wash (Hamblin et al.,
1981). Similar calculations indicate that the Hurricane fault, near the town of Hurricane, Utah, has a minimum vertical slip
rate of 300 m/m.y. for the last 0.3 m.y.
The amount of downcutting, however, decreases upstream from the base-level fall. Rice (1980), using four dated
basalt flows, estimated a 95 m/m.y. average downcutting rate of the Little Colorado River over the past 2.5 m.y.
Alternatively, if an area containing basalt flows has
FIGURE 7.13 Pediment surface in the Mohave Desert of California exposing bedrock. The pediment-mountain front junction
is abrupt and characterized by a sharp break in slope.
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 134
been tectonically warped or tilted, the basalts may record irregularities, anomalous gradients, or gradient reversals. Classic
examples of basalt-filled channels being used as long-term tiltmeters can be found in studies of late Cenozoic tectonism in
the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California (Bateman and Wahrhaftig, 1966). Use of volcanic ashes to date erosional or
depositional surfaces are also abundant (Young and Brennan, 1974). Field relations using dated basalts have supported
tectonic geomorphologic inference regarding classical geomorphic problems including the development of the western
margin of the Colorado Plateau and the evolution of the Grand Canyon (McKee and McKee, 1972; Hamblin et al., 1981).
FIGURE 7.14 Profile of stream channel showing the relation between the present channel and portions of an older channel
preserved by basalt flows. Downcutting induced by faulting has left the older channel remnants much higher than the present
channel.
DISCUSSION
The tectonic geomorphology of fault-generated topographic fronts can be used to describe long-term tectonic
FIGURE 7.15 Aerial oblique view looking north at Grand Wash. The Virgin Mountains are located at the northernmost part of
the photograph. The flat-topped mesas are capped by basalt flows that record a time when the base level in Grand Wash was
much higher. The basalt flows provide a chronostratigraphic datum that can be used to calculate average rates of stream
downcutting and make inferences about tectonic uplift.
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TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ESCARPMENTS AND MOUNTAIN FRONTS 135
history. Forecasting tectonic activity requires a long record, and therefore the tectonic geomorphology of landforms with
long survival times will be an important ingredient in estimating tectonic hazards. Rates of geomorphic processes such as
pedimentation or stream downcutting can act as a clock that starts ticking following the formation of a tectonic landform.
Present limited knowledge of these rates suggests that during periods of active faulting in the Basin and Range province,
fault-slip rates of about 0.1–1 m per 10,000 yr or greater are needed to generate high topographic escarpments, and these
periods of active faulting may last on the order of a million years.
The Hurricane escarpment, in southern Utah, for example, was formed by an average fault-slip rate of 3 m per 10,000
yr. Landforms, such as scarps, produced by slip rates less than 1 m per 100,000 yr may be sufficiently obliterated by
erosion to preclude the accumulation of relief across a mountain front. Relations between the recurrence interval of
ground-rupturing earthquakes and mountain front development need closer study. Many of the methods described above
can be easily used and rapidly applied, and, therefore, regional studies are both possible and desirable. The need for more
data on geomorphic rates is a limiting factor on the interpretation of such analyses, and therefore Quaternary dating is a
corequisite for continued research in the field of tectonic geomorphology.
REFERENCES
Bateman, P.C., and C.Wahrhaftig (1966). Geology of the Sierra Nevada, in Geology of Northern California, California Division of Mines and Geology
Bull. 190, pp. 107–172.
Bucknam, R.C., and R. E.Anderson (1979). Estimation of fault scarp ages from a scarp-height—slope angle relationship, Geology 7, 11–14.
Bull, W.B., and L.D.McFadden (1977). Tectonic geomorphology north and south of the Garlock Fault, California, in Geomorphology in Arid Regions:
Annual Binghamton Conference, D.O. Doehring, ed., State University of New York at Binghamton, pp. 115–136.
Davis, W.M. (1899). The geographical cycle, J. Geogr. 14, 481.
Hamblin, W.K., P.E.Damon, and W.B.Bull (1981). Estimates of vertical crustal strain rates along the western margins of the Colorado Plateau, Geology
9, 293–298.
McKee, E.D., and E.H.McKee (1972). Pliocene uplift of the Grand Canyon region—a time of drainage adjustment, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 83, 1923–1932.
Rice, R.J. (1980). Rates of erosion in the Little Colorado valley, Arizona, in Timescales in Geomorphology, R.A.Cullingford et al., eds., John Wiley, New
York, pp. 317–331.
Wallace, R.E. (1977). Profiles and ages of young fault scarps in northcentral Nevada, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 88, 107–172.
Wallace, R.E. (1978). Geometry and rates of change of fault- generated range-fronts, north- central Nevada, J. Res. U.S. Geol. Surv. 6, 637–650.
Young, A. (1972). Slopes, Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh/London, 288 pp.
Young, R.A., and W.J.Brennen (1974). Peach Springs Tuff—its bearing on the structural evolution of the Colorado Plateau and development of Cenozoic
drainage in Mohave county, Arizona, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 85, 83–90.
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INVESTIGATION OF ACTIVE TECTONICS: USE OF SURFICIAL EARTH PROCESSES 136
8
Investigation of Active Tectonics: Use of Surficial Earth Processes
EDWARD A.KELLER
University of California, Santa Barbara
ABSTRACT
Evaluation of landforms, soils, and deposits formed by active tectonics is providing basic data necessary for long-term
earthquake prediction, seismic-hazard evaluation, and probabilistic seismic-risk assessment.
Investigation of active tectonics based on geomorphic techniques varies from regional reconnaissance work to detailed, site-
specific, process-response study. Geomorphic indices and landform assemblages are useful in regional evaluation to identify
relative tectonic activity and sites where rates of active-tectonic processes may be evaluated. Process-response studies involve
coupling of geologic and geomorphic processes with responses of the landscape. Such an approach involves study of faulted
Holocene (less than 10,000-yr-old) deposits; faulted landforms such as offset streams, alluvial fans, marine terraces, river
terraces, and glacial moraines; and change in fault-scarp morphology with time.
Rates of active-tectonic processes may be calculated from geomorphic evaluation, provided deformation of a specific
landscape feature is measured and chronology of the deformed feature is established. It is usually easier to identify and
measure deformation of features than establish chronology, and even if rates of tectonic deformation can be established,
evaluation of their significance may be difficult because they often vary in time and space owing to geologic constraints. For
examples, slip rates may vary along different segments of the same fault owing to changes in tectonic framework, and rates of
uplift of terraces or other landforms may change through time as a function of mechanics of deformation.
INTRODUCTION
Understanding and long-term prediction of earthquakes associated with active tectonics has experienced remarkable
progress in recent years through the study of near-surface processes (geomorphology). Studies of geologically young (less
than 10,000-yr-old) and slightly older (less than 125,000-yr-old) landforms, soils, and deposits are providing basic data
necessary for long-term earthquake prediction, seismic-hazard evaluation, and probabilistic seismic-risk assessment. A
large number of faults capable of producing damaging earthquakes have been identified and evaluated to determine rates of
movement and potential earthquake hazard. For a few faults, including the San Andreas Fault north of Los Angeles,
California, and the Wasatch Fault near Salt Lake City, Utah, recurrence intervals of recent (prehistoric) earthquakes have
been determined (Allen, 1983).
Information concerning rates of movement along
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faults, potential earthquake hazard, and recurrence of large earthquakes obtained from quantitative field studies in
geomorphology is extremely useful in long-term (tens to hundreds of years) land-use planning, a goal of which is
earthquake-hazard reduction. Specifically, studies of active faults are providing critical information necessary for
residential and commercial zoning near active faults; establishing building codes; and planning for large dams, nuclear
power plants, liquified natural gas facilities, and other critical facilities.
Geomorphic evaluation of active tectonics has taken two approaches depending on whether reconnaissance
information or detailed evaluation is desired. Reconnaissance work to identify areas where active tectonics is particularly
significant generally involves the use of geomorphic indices (sensitive to rock resistance, climatic change, or tectonic
processes) or assemblages of landforms produced or modified by active-tectonic processes. Detailed, site-specific study of
active tectonics often involves evaluation of process-response models that attempt to explore relations between landforms,
earth materials, geomorphic processes, and active tectonics integrated through time. The concept of time or chronology is
introduced here because without establishment of a reliable chronology, process-response models will not yield rates of
faulting and recurrence intervals of damaging earthquakes that are necessary in evaluating seismic risk. Much of the
remainder of this paper will emphasize these points: use of geomorphic indices in reconnaissance studies of active
tectonism; landform assemblages as indicators of active tectonism; and use of process-response models in establishing
relations between landforms, earth materials, geomorphic processes, and tectonic processes for devising rates of active
tectonics. Figure 8.1 summarizes the two main approaches to studying geomorphologic indicators of active tectonics and
use to society.
FIGURE 8.1 Active tectonics and geomorphology: data input, output, and use to society.
GEOMORPHIC INDICES AND ACTIVE TECTONICS
Geomorphic indices are useful tools in evaluating active tectonics because they quickly provide insight concerning
specific areas or sites in a region that is adjusting to relatively rapid rates of active-tectonic deformation. Indices that have
been most successful are related to erosional and depositional processes associated with fluvial (river) systems. The best
known of these are the stream-gradient index (SL index) developed by Hack (1973), the mountain-front sinuosity (Smf
index) developed by Bull (1977a, 1978), and the ratio of valley-floor width to valley height (Vf index) also developed by
Bull (1977a, 1978).
Stream-Gradient Index
The stream-gradient index (Hack, 1973), later applied to the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California by Keller
(1977), is defined as
(8.1)
where SL is the stream-gradient index, ǻH/ǻL is the local gradient of the stream reach where the index is computed (ǻH
is the drop in elevation of the reach and ǻL is the length of the reach), and L is the total channel length from the drainage
divide to the center of the reach, measured along the channel.
The SL index is crudely related to the available stream power, defined as the product of water discharge and water-
surface slope, and thus reflects the ability of the stream to transport its load. The index is a surrogate for stream power
because the upstream channel length is proportional to bankfull discharge and the slope of the water surface is
approximated by the slope of the channel bed.
The stream-gradient index is particularly sensitive to changes in slope and thus is a valuable tool in evaluating active
tectonics with a strong vertical component of deformation. However, the index is also sensitive to rock resistance (resistant
rock produces a steep channel slope), and differentiating between effects of tectonics and rock resistance may be difficult.
That is, values of the index are high in areas where the rocks are particularly resistant or where active tectonics has resulted
in vertical deformation at the Earth's surface. Therefore, anomalously high SL indices in rocks of low or uniform resistance
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is a possible indicator of active tectonics. Figure 8.2 shows stream-gradient indices for the San Ga
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briel Mountains in southern California. Areas of anomalously high indices are located along the southern and eastern fronts
of the range. Although it was previously known that rates of uplift were relatively high in these areas, the indices verified
this and also delineated an area of unusually high indices near the location of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. Thus a
regional evaluation of the San Gabriel Mountains suggests that detailed studies along the southern and eastern fronts of the
range as well as near San Fernando have the best chance of yielding rates of vertical tectonics (uplift), slip rates along
active faults, and recurrence intervals of damaging earthquakes. Areas where stream-gradient indices are relatively low are
associated with two general conditions: areas where soft sedimentary rocks are abundant and along major strike-slip faults
(the San Andreas and San Gabriel Faults) where horizontal movement has crushed the rocks producing zones low in
resistance to erosion.
FIGURE 8.2 Stream gradient (SL) indices for the San Gabriel Mountains, California. See text for explanation.
The SL index over a region can be computed from small-scale topographic maps. The index could also be computed
from analyses of elevational data stored in computer systems. Therefore, in theory, large regions may be evaluated quickly,
although interpretation of the index will remain crude because it may be difficult to separate effects of rock resistance from
active tectonics. Nevertheless, the SL index is a valuable reconnaissance tool useful in isolating smaller areas for detailed
work.
Mountain-Front Sinuosity
Mountain-front sinuosity (Smf) is defined as
(8.2)
where Lmf is the length of mountain front along the mountain-piedmont (foot of mountain) junction and Ls is the
straight-line length of the front. The Smf index reflects a balance between the tendency of streams and slope processes to
produce an irregular (sinuous) mountain front and vertical active tectonics that tends to produce a prominent straight front
(Bull and McFadden, 1977). Thus, mountain fronts associated with active uplift are relatively straight, but if the rate of
uplift is reduced or ceases, erosional processes will begin to form a sinuous front that becomes more irregular with time.
Mountain-front sinuosity was used by Bull and McFadden (1977) to evaluate the marked contrast in tectonic activity
north and south of the Garlock Fault in California. North of the fault the values of Smf are low, suggesting active tectonics,
whereas south of the fault the Smf values suggest relative tectonic stability.
Rockwell and Keller (in press) used mountain-front sinuosity in the Ventura Basin, southern California, where Smf
values vary from about 1 to 3. Low sinuosity (1.01 to 1.14), characteristic of technically active fronts, can be maintained in
the Ventura area if a threshold rate of uplift greater than 0.4 mm/yr is maintained.
Mountain-front sinuosity, like the stream-gradient
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index, is a valuable reconnaissance tool when evaluating effects of active vertical tectonics. The Smf index is particularly
attractive because it can be quickly and easily measured from aerial photographs, satellite or other high-altitude imagery, or
topographic maps.
Ratio of Valley-Floor Width to Valley Height
The ratio of the width of valley floor to valley height Vf may be expressed by
(8.3)
where Vfw is the width of valley floor, Eld and Erd are the respective elevations of the left and right valley divides, and
Esc is the elevation of the valley floor (Bull and McFadden, 1977). In determining Vf, the data are measured at a given
distance up from the mountain front. The index reflects differences between broad-floored canyons with relatively high
values of Vf and V-shaped canyons with relatively low values. Comparison of Vf values measured from valleys emerging
from different mountain fronts or different parts of the same front provides an indication of whether the streams are actively
downcutting (forming V-shaped valleys with low Vf) in response to active tectonics or are being eroded laterally (forming
broad valleys with high Vf) in response to relative stability of the front.
The Vf index was tested by Bull and McFadden (1977) for mountain fronts north and south of the Garlock Fault. They
found that values of the index varied from 0.05 to 4.7, with the lower values being derived from valleys north of the fault
where mountain fronts are tectonically active. The index was also tested by Rockwell and Keller (in press) for mountain
fronts near Ventura, California, where Vf ratios show similar trends to that established by Bull and McFadden—being
lower for relatively active fronts than for fronts with lesser rates of uplift.
TECTONIC GEOMORPHOLOGY AND LANDFORM ASSEMBLAGE
A genetic classification of landforms is possible because different geomorphic processes tend to produce a
characteristic assemblage of landforms. For example, the discussion of geomorphic indices suggested that active vertical
tectonics tends to produce straight mountain fronts with V-shaped canyons and streams with relatively steep gradients for a
particular rock type. On a more local scale, as for example along a specific mountain front or fault zone, active tectonics
often modifies or produces characteristic landform assemblages. For example, alluvial fans have a variable morphology
somewhat dependent on tectonic processes, and active strike-slip faulting produces a specific set of tectonic landforms. A
tacit assumption in the evaluation of landform assemblages produced by active tectonics is that the more pristine or fresh
appearing the landforms are, the younger the tectonics is assumed to be. Discussion of alluvial-fan morphology and tectonic
activity as well as the assemblage of landforms associated with strike-slip faulting will illustrate the above concepts.
Alluvial Fans
An alluvial fan is the end point of an erosional-depositional system in which sediment eroded from a mountain source
is transported to the mountain front. There it is deposited as a cone or fan-shaped body of fluvial and/or debris-flow
deposits (Bull, 1977b). The stream is the connecting link between the erosional and depositional parts of the system (Bull,
1977b) and therefore has a significant influence on the morphology of the alluvial fan. Radial profiles for most fans are
composed of several segments, which together are gently concave. Breaks in slope mark boundaries between segments, and
younger segments may be identified from older ones based on relative soil profile development, weathering of alluvial
clasts, dissection of the surface by small streams, and development of desert varnish [see Bull (1964, 1977b) for a more
detailed discussion of segmented alluvial fans].
Alluvial-fan morphology is an indicator of active tectonics because the fan form reflects varying rates of tectonic
processes such as uplift of the source mountain along a range-bounding fault or tilting of the fan surface. When the rate of
uplift of the mountain front is high relative to rate of stream-channel downcutting in the mountain and to fan deposition,
then fanhead deposition tends to occur, and the youngest fan segment is near the apex of the fan. If the rate of uplift of the
mountain front is less than or equal to the rate of downcutting of the stream in the mountain, then fanhead trenching occurs
and deposition is shifted downfan. Younger fan segments will then be found well away from the mountain front (Figure 8.3
shows these two conditions). Change in sediment or water yield may also cause fanhead trenching, but this tends to be
temporary if mountain-front uplift persists (Bull, 1964).
The above model of segmented alluvial fans relative to active tectonics has been successfully tested for alluvial fans in
Death Valley, California (Hooke, 1972). Hooke found that eastward tilting and normal faulting produced segmented
alluvial fans. On the east side of
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the valley alluvial fans are relatively small and steep, and active normal faulting produces a straight mountain front with
young fan segments being deposited on fanhead areas. On the west side of the valley alluvial fans are larger, not so steep,
and not so influenced by mountain-front uplift. Lesser uplift and eastward tilting of the fans has shifted to the locus of fan
deposition downfan; fanhead trenching occurs, and the younger fan segments are located well away from the fan apex. A
similar tendency was noticed for alluvial fans in the Ventura, California, area that are being tilted basinward by active
tectonics (Rockwell and Keller, in press). As with the geomorphic indices, the study of alluvial fans provides
reconnaissance information concerning relative rates of active tectonics.
FIGURE 8.5 Sketch map of offset alluvial fan along the
San Andreas Fault in the Indio Hills, California. Modified
from Keller et al. (1982a).
FIGURE 8.3 Alluvial fan morphology: (A) deposition
adjacent to mountain front and (B) deposition shifted
downfan as a result of fanhead entrenchment. See text for
further explanation. From Bull (1977b).
Landform Assemblage: Strike-Slip Faulting
Active strike-slip faulting produces a characteristic assemblage of landforms including linear valleys, offset or
deflected streams, shutter ridges, sags, pressure ridges, benches, scarps, and small horst and grabens known as
microtopography (see Figure 8.4, opposite page). Figure 8.5 shows fault-related landforms associated with an offset
alluvial fan located along the San Andreas Fault in the Indio Hills of southern California. The fan is offset about 700 m, and
making an assumption concerning the age of the fan from soils (Keller et al., 1982a) the slip rate for this part of the San
Andreas Fault is at least 1 cm/yr and probably closer to 3 cm/yr. Small streams at the upper part of the fan are offset
several meters, suggesting that tectonic creep or moderate to large earthquakes have occurred in the past few thousand
years. There have been no large earthquakes along the southern part of the fault in historical time (several hundred years),
but the geomorphology in the fault
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zone suggests that earthquakes are likely to be generated there in the future.
FIGURE 8.4 Assemblage of landforms associated with active strike-slip faulting. Modified from Wesson et al. (1975).
Active strike-slip faulting in the offshore southern California continental borderland also has distinctive geomorphic
expression characterized by linear troughs, sags, tectonic benches, fault scarps, and offset or deflected channels associated
with submarine fans. A recent study of the San Clemente Fault zone (Legg and Luyendyk, 1982), utilizing topographic data
from Seabeam surveys, demonstrated that the data base and resolution is now sufficient to begin studying submarine-
tectonic geomorphology to improve mapping of active faults and to evaluate long-term earthquake hazard. Figure 8.6
shows topography and tectonic landforms associated with the San Clemente Fault zone (M.R.Legg, University of
California, San Diego, personal communication, 1983).
Many of the topographic features associated with active strike-slip faulting such as sags, pressure ridges, and fault
scarps can be explained by simple shear that produces contraction and extension as illustrated on Figure 8.7 (Wilcox et al.,
1973; Sylvester and Smith, 1976). Others are better explained by extension or contraction associated with releasing or
constraining bends or steps of fault traces as illustrated on Figure 8.8 (Crowell, 1974; Dibblee, 1977).
PROCESS-RESPONSE MODELS: RATES OF ACTIVE TECTONICS
Process-response models in active tectonics are broadly defined to include the investigation of earth ma
FIGURE 8.6 Sketch map of part of the San Clemente Fault zone. Data are from Seabeam survey. Courtesy of Mark R.Legg,
University of California, San Diego.
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terials, landforms, and late Pleistocene-Holocene chronology, the purpose of which is to derive rates of active tectonics (slip
rates on faults, rates of uplift or subsidence, and recurrence intervals of damaging earthquakes). Such investigations have
been very successful in recent years and are providing basic data necessary for long-term (tens to hundreds of years)
earthquake prediction. Examples include (1) paleoseismic construetion (occurrence and recurrence intervals of prehistoric
earthquakes) obtained from studying faulted Holocene-alluvial sequences of stream, marsh, lake, or landslide deposits
(Clark et al., 1972; Sieh, 1978; Davis, 1981; Rust, 1982); (2) paleoseismic construction based on fault-scarp morphology
change with time (Wallace, 1977; Bucknam and Anderson, 1979; Nash, Chapter 11, this volume); and (3) rates of uplift,
slip rates on active faults, and/or recurrence intervals of assumed earthquakes based on chronology and offset of landforms
such as alluvial fans (Keller et al., 1982a), marine terraces (Matsuda et al, 1978; Lajoie et al., 1979, 1982; Keller et al.,
1982b), offset streams (Sharp, 1981; Sieh, 1981), and glacial deposits (Schubert, 1982).
FIGURE 8.7 Simple shear associated with strike-slip faulting produces preferred orientation of fractures, faults and folds (A)
as well as extensional and contractional landforms (B). Figure modified from Wilcox et al. (1973), Sylvester and Smith
(1976), and Keller et al. (1982a).
Fault-Scarp Morphology
Slope morphology of scarps produced by faulting is a successful geomorphic indicator of active tectonics. Figure 8.9
shows generalized slope elements associated with a fault scarp. All the elements shown need not be present for a particular
scarp, and because slopes are dynamic changing landforms, the dominance of one element relative to others changes with
time. Table 8.1 and Figure 8.10 summarize form-process relationships for fault-scarp morphology change with time as
discussed by Wallace (1977) for the Great Basin area in Nevada. Wallace was able to develop the chronology shown on
Figure 8.10 and Table 8.1 by studying fault scarps that truncate 14C-dated shorelines of Pleistocene Lake Lahontan, are
associated with volcanic ash of known age, were produced by known earthquakes, or can be dated by tree rings
(dendrochronology).
Recurrent displacement along the same fault line produces a composite fault scarp. Wallace (1977) stated that multiple
displacements on a compound fault scarp
FIGURE 8.8 Pressure ridges and sags associated with restraining and releasing bends and/or steps along strike-slip faults.
Modified after Crowell (1974) and Dibblee (1977).
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can be recognized by sharp breaks in slope on the scarp, benches or terraces associated with small channels that have
eroded through the fault scarp, knickpoints (short vertical or steep sections) in channels that cross the scarp, scarp height
that exceeds that likely produced by a single event, and progressive displacement (older material has been displaced more
than younger material).
FIGURE 8.9 Basic slope elements that may be present on a
fault scarp. After Wallace (1977).
FIGURE 8.10 Change in slope elements (fault-scarp
morphology) with time for fault-scarp degradation in the
Great Basin area of Nevada. After Wallace (1977).
Change in fault-scarp morphology with time is being treated quantitatively. Bucknam and Anderson (1979) developed
relations between scarp height and scarp-slope angle for fault scarps in Utah with estimated ages ranging from 1000 to
100,000 yr (Figure 8.11). Their studies verify Wallace's (1977) conclusion that with
TABLE 8.1 Fault Scarp-Slope Morphologya
Slope Element Morphology Process (Formation and/or Comments and General
Modification Chronology
Crest Top of fault scarp (break in slope); Produced by faulting; modified by Becomes rounded after free face
initially sharp, becomes rounded weathering, mass wasting disappears; usually rounded after
with time about 10,000 yr
Free Face Straight segment; initially 45° to Produced by faulting; modified by Dominant element for 100 year or
overhanging weathering, gullying, mass wasting; so; disappears after about 1000–
eventually buried from below by 2000 yr
accumulation of debris
Debris Slope Straight segment; at angle of repose Accumulation of material that has Is dominant element after about
of material usually 30° to 38° fallen down from the free face 100 yr, remains dominant until
about 100,000 yr, disappears at
about 1,000,000 yr
Wash Slope Straight to gently concave segment; Fluvial erosion and deposition; Is developed by 100 yr, significant
overlaps the debris slope; slope deposition of wedge or fan of by 1000 yr, and dominant by
angle generally 3° to 15° alluvium near toe of the slope; some 100,000 yr
gullying
Toe Base of fault scarp (break) in slope) Fluvial erosion and deposition; More prominent in young fault
slope; may be initially sharp, but owing to change in process/form scarps or where wash slope is not
with time may become from upslope element (free face, present; on scarps older than about
indeterminate as grades into original debris slope, or wash slope) to 12,000 yr. the basal slope break is
slope original surface below the fault- sharper than the crestal slope
scarp slope break
a
After Wallace (1977) for fault scarps in the Great Basin.
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time the angle of a scarp degrades to a lower-slope angle. For example, for a 3-m-high scarp (shown on Figure 8.11), as the
scarp-slope angle decreases from 28° to 10° the scarp age increases from 1000 to 100,000 yr. In theory, once fault-scarp
degradation curves, such as those on Figure 8.11, are derived for an area, the investigator can assign estimated ages to fault
scarps of known height and slope angle and estimate the earthquake hazard and history. However, care must be taken in
making paleoseismic statements because (1) the initial scarp from a single event may vary with materials composing the
scarp and local change in pattern of fault displacement, e.g., multiple, composite-overlapping rupture versus single rupture
scarps (A.J.Crone, U.S. Geological Survey, personal communication); and (2) temporal and spatial variations in climate
may produce a variable fault-scarp morphology.
FIGURE 8.11 Relationship between fault-scarp height and scarp-slope angle from scarps ranging in age from 103 and 105 yr.
After Bucknam and Anderson (1979).
Faulted Holocene Deposits
Erosional and depositional processes produce stream, marsh, lake, and landslide deposits that, when faulted, may
produce valuable information concerning slip rates, rates of uplift or subsidence, and paleoseismicity. Two examples from
the San Andreas Fault system in southern California are the Coyote Creek Fault—part of the San Jacinto Fault zone (a
major branch of the San Andreas Fault)—and the San Andreas Fault at Pallett Creek (Sieh, 1978).
Holocene paleoseismicity on the Coyote Creek Fault was determined by evaluating progressive vertical displacement
of lake deposits. Clark et al. (1972) and Sharp (1981) estimated that the recurrence interval for earthquakes similar to the
April 9, 1968, Borrego Mountain earthquake (M=6.7) varies from 50 to several hundred years. The slip rate for the fault is
also variable, being 1 to 5 mm/yr for Holocene (less than 10,000 yr) offsets and as high as 8 to 12 mm/yr for a mid-
Pleistocene (about 700,000 yr) offset.
Geomorphic investigation of the San Andreas Fault north of Los Angeles has helped answer an important question for
understanding the earthquake hazard—how often do large earthquakes occur? Data from Pallett Creek, 55 km northeast of
Los Angeles (Sieh, 1978) and two other sites up to 125 km northwest of Pallett Creek (Davis, 1981; Rust, 1982) suggest
that three large prehistoric earthquakes since the sixteenth century may be correlated over a long (125 km) segment of the
fault. Sieh (1978) believed that evidence from faulted peat deposits at Pallett Creek (dated by 14C) suggest that there may
have been 12 large earthquakes in the past 1700 yr. One of these was historical (1857) and 11 were prehistoric, suggesting
an average recurrence interval of 145 yr. However, the length of time between such events may vary from as short as 50 yr
to as long as 250 yr (Sieh, 1978). Using the most recent five events, which are well dated and established, the average
recurrence interval is about 200 yr (K.E.Sieh, California Institute of Technology, personal communication, 1984).
Paleoseismic construction of this segment of the San Andreas Fault, known as the “Big Bend,” is providing data useful in
long-term earthquake prediction.
Faulted Landforms
Evaluation of faulted landforms (especially those with multiple displacements) including stream channels, river
terraces, marine terraces, and glacial moraines is helping answer fundamental questions concerning active tectonics. Some
of these questions are: (1) Are rates of faulting constant through time? (2) Which faults produce the greatest earthquake
hazard? (3) Are historical rates of faulting, based on first-order leveling, verified in the recent geologic record? (4) What is
the potential for seismic shaking or ground rupture at a particular site? (5) What is the likely displacement per event and
recurrence interval of earthquakes for specific active faults?
Study of a series of marine terraces (Matsuda et al., 1978) south of Tokyo, Japan—believed to have been produced by a
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series of sudden uplifts during large earthquakes—suggest that there have been four great
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FIGURE 8.12 Faulted terraces of the Ventura River near Oak View, California.
(M greater than 8) earthquakes in the last 6000 yr with an average recurrence interval of 1500 yr. The investigators
also located an area where they believe a large earthquake is likely in the relatively near future. They base their long-term
prediction on the fact that the area near the expected epicenter may be a seismic gap, identified by a local uplift rate that is
less than the regional average during the last several thousand years.
Investigation of faulted terraces in New Zealand, Japan, and the United States are yielding estimates of slip rates and
recurrence intervals of potential earthquakes. A flight of seven terraces of the Waiohine River, New Zealand, have been
progressively offset during the late Pleistocene and Holocene along the Wairarapa Fault (Lensen and Vella, 1971). Making
assumptions concerning the chronology the investigators concluded that the horizontal slip rate for the fault is 3.4 to 6
mm/yr, and assuming a 3-m horizontal displacement per earthquake event, a recurrence interval of 500 to 900 yr is
obtained. A similar study of a flight of nine terraces of the Kiso River, Japan—progressively displaced (left-lateral) by the
Alter Fault—is presented by Yoshikawa et al. (1981). A 14C date of about 27,000 yr for a terrace with measured horizontal
and vertical displacement of 140 and 28 m, respectively, provides a slip rate of about 5 and 1 mm/yr, respectively.
Assuming a 8-m displacement per event (based on an M=8.4 earthquake in 1891 on a similar fault 60 km to the east) yields a
recurrence interval of 1600 yr for a similar event on the Alter Fault. As a final example of river terraces, investigation of
several late Pleistocene-Holocene terraces of the Ventura River near Oak View, California (Keller et al., 1982b), displaced
by flexural-slip faulting (Figure 8.12), yields slip rates that vary from about 0.3 to 1.1 mm/yr. The important aspect of the
study was the recognition that the faults produce a ground-rupture hazard rather than seismic-shaking hazard (Yeats et al.,
1981; Yeats, Chapter 4, this volume). Assuming a slip event of 25 cm (similar to a flexural-slip event near Lompoc,
California, in 1981 that produced a 570-m rupture surface and an M=2.5 earthquake (Yerkes et al., 1981), the recurrence
interval would vary from 250 to 750 yr.
Offset stream channels and glacial moraines are also yielding slip rates for active faults. Sieh (1981) and Sieh and
Jahns (1984) estimated from offset stream channels of Wallace Creek along the south-central part of the San Andreas Fault
(Figure 8.13) that the slip rate during the latest Pleistocene and Holocene has been about 30 to 40 mm/yr. Finally, Schubert
(1982) reported an estimated range of slip rate (3 to 14 mm/yr) for the right-lateral Bocono Fault in western Venezuela. His
estimate was based on several measured offsets (60 to 260 m) of
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FIGURE 8.13 Channel offset along the San Andreas Fault. See text for explanation. After Sieh (1981).
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lateral moraines with an estimated age of 18,000 yr based on palynological, sedimentological, and 14C methods.
TABLE 8.2 Uplift and Tilting of Bedrock and River Terraces over the Ventura Avenue Anticline
Geomorphic Surface Present Height Potential Range Uplift Minimum Possible
Designation Age (yr)a Sea Level (m)b above Ventura River Rate to Present (mm/yr) Uplift Rate to Present
(m)c d (mm/yr)e
Q5a 15,800±210 í110 30.5±10 5.5±4.2 1.9±0.7
Q5a-b 20,040±590 í90 85.3±10 6.6±2.9 4.3±0.5
Q5b 29,700±1250 í41 120±10 4.8±1.2 4.1±0.5
Q6a 38,000±1500 í38 175±10 5.1±1.0 4.7±0.4
Q6c 80,000 or 105,000 í13 625±100 7.1±2.1 7.1±2.0
Bedrock 200,000 Present 2720±200 13.6±1.0 (minimum) 13.6±1.0
aBased on 14C and amino acid racemization chronology (Lajoie et al., 1982).
b AfterLajoie et al. (1979).
cProjected to the axis of the anticline.
d Assumes complete range of possible adjustment of Ventura River to lower sea level.
eAssumes no adjustment of Ventura River to lower sea level.
RATES, DATES, AND TECTONIC FRAMEWORK: SELECTED OBSERVATIONS RELATIVE TO
SOCIETAL NEEDS
Tectonic geomorphology, defined as the application of geomorphic principles to tectonic problems, is significant to
society when rates and dates of tectonic events provide the data framework useful in long-term earthquake prediction and
land-use planning to reduce the earthquake hazard. Important considerations in developing rates of active tectonics based
on geomorphic evaluation are measurement of deformation associated with past tectonic events (such as offset streams,
glacial moraines, alluvial deposits, or other features), development of the late Pleistocene to Holocene chronology to derive
rates (defined as the ratio of measured deformation to the appropriate time interval), and interpretation of rates of active
tectonics that often vary significantly owing to geologic constraints.
The most reliable rates of past tectonic events are derived from well-constrained, measured deformation and
chronology. However, it is often easier to measure deformation than to establish the necessary chronology. Methods of
establishing chronology are discussed by Pierce (Chapter 13, this volume).
The use of soil geomorphology in establishing late Pleistocene-Holocene chronology is emerging as a powerful tool in
deriving rates of active tectonic deformation (see, e.g., Keller et al., 1982a,b; Dembroff, 1982; Rockwell, 1983; Rockwell
et al., 1984). The basic idea is to produce a soil chronosequence, defined as a series of soils arranged from youngest to
oldest for an area. Relative chronology is based on physical and chemical properties of the soils, and absolute chronology is
provided by 14C dates and other methods discussed by Pierce (Chapter 13, this volume). Once the chronosequence is
established, it may be applied over a large area independent of further absolute dates at sites where deformation is
measured; that advantage is the real power of the soil chronosequence.
Rates of active-tectonic deformation must be carefully interpreted because they may vary in time and space owing to
geologic constraints such as style of faulting and mechanics of folding. For example, slip rates of flexural-slip faulting near
Oak View, California, vary from about 0.3 to 1.1 mm/yr as a function of fault location in a syncline and/or mechanics of
folding (Keller et al., 1982b; Rockwell, 1983; and Rockwell et al., 1984), and rate of uplift associated with folding of the
Ventura Avenue anticline has decreased from over 10 mm/yr in mid-Pleistocene time to about 5 mm/yr during the late
Pleistocene and Holocene (Table 8.2), as a function of mechanics of folding (Keller et al. 1982b; Dembroff, 1982;
Rockwell, 1983). Thus, there is not necessarily a direct relationship between rate of fault displacement or uplift and
earthquake hazard. Understanding the tectonic framework and geologic constraints is necessary to make such a
determination.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Reviews of the manuscript and suggestions for improvement by W.B.Bull and J.G.Dennis are appreciated.
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INVESTIGATION OF ACTIVE TECTONICS: USE OF SURFICIAL EARTH PROCESSES 147
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Volcanoes, and Engineering, Menlo Park, Calif., 188 pp.
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Univ. Calif., Santa Barbara, 122 pp.
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San Diego State University, pp. 3–15.
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Geophys. Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 181–207.
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Sylvester, A.G., and R.R.Smith (1976). Tectonic transpression and basement-controlled deformation in San Andreas Fault zone, Salton Trough,
California, Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 60, 2081–2102.
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Bay Region, R.D.Borchardt, ed., U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Paper 941A, pp. 5–30.
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Soc. Am. Bull. 92, 189–196.
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the authoritative version for attribution.
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SEISMOLOGICAL AND PALEOSEISMOLOGICAL TECHNIQUES OF RESEARCH IN ACTIVE TECTONICS 148
9
Seismological and Paleoseismological Techniques of Research in
Active Tectonics
CLARENCE R.ALLEN
California Institute of Technology
ABSTRACT
Classical seismological techniques such as earthquake hypocentral locations and focal-mechanism studies continue to play an
important role in the understanding of active-tectonic processes, but newer techniques such as seismic tomography and the
determination of earthquake source parameters are being increasingly utilized. The most spectacular recent progress, however,
seems to have been in the area of paleoseismicity and slip-rate studies, where documentation of the ages and displacements of
various young geologic features has had great impact on both the understanding of contemporary tectonic processes and on
seismic-hazard evaluation. Critical future research needs in seismological and paleoseismological areas include (1) improved
local seismic networks, (2) implementation of new worldwide networks utilizing broadband digital recording, (3) increased
numbers of strong-motion seismometers in earthquake-prone areas, (4) better understanding of soil development and
deformation, (5) improved techniques for absolute age dating of alluvial materials, (6) increased understanding of the rates and
nature of modification of surficial neotectonic features such as fault scarps, and (7) continued vigorous field studies of active
tectonic processes associated with contemporary large earthquakes.
The study of contemporary and recent earthquakes represents perhaps the major contribution to the understanding of
tectonic processes active in the world today. This is not to belittle studies of active folding and warping or of active
volcanism, but significant tectonic changes occur so rapidly, dramatically, and over such wide areas during large
earthquakes that they seem to represent the most rewarding laboratory for the study of active-tectonic processes. And large
earthquakes are of relatively frequent occurrence on a worldwide basis, so that abundant research opportunities exist.
Many of the classical seismological techniques have been—and continue to be—so fundamental to studies of active
tectonics that they hardly need discussion. Among these are (1) hypocentral locations of earthquakes, (2) earthquake focal
mechanisms, (3) statistical studies of earthquake occurrences, and (4) studies of crustal structure. Indeed, many of the most
important ideas of active plate-tectonic processes, such as the transform-fault and subduction-zone concepts, have stemmed
directly from studies of earthquake locations and focal mechanisms (e.g., Isacks et al., 1968). Detailed studies of aftershock
patterns of major earth
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quakes have been critical in developing an understanding the fracture process, and dense seismographic coverage has
allowed locations of microearthquakes, sometimes to within a few meters, which in turn permits portrayal of minute details
of fault geometry—a geometry that generally turns out to be far more complex than we had ever imagined (e.g., Johnson
and Hill, 1982; Reasenberg and Ellsworth, 1982).
But certainly many of the exciting new tectonic implications are coming from those types of relatively new
seismological techniques that shed light on the nature and mechanics of the fracture process. An example is the now-
widespread use of seismic moment and moment magnitude (e.g., Hanks and Kanamori, 1979), which have a direct tie-in to
physical parameters at the earthquake source, such as stress drop, amount of slip, and area of the broken fault surface. The
use of such concepts is now widespread in regional syntheses of active-tectonic processes (e.g., Wesnousky et al., 1982;
Molnar and Deng, 1984). Still more recent is the introduction of tomographic techniques to seismology (e.g., Anderson and
Dziewonski, 1984), in which vast amounts of seismic data are synthesized to reveal heretofore unknown details of three-
dimensional crustal structure, which may be very relevant to ongoing tectonic processes (e.g., Humphreys et al., 1984).
Increased use of such techniques, together with new broadband and digitally recording seismic instruments (e.g.,
Alexander, 1983) and dramatically improved data-analysis techniques, is literally revolutionizing the field of seismology.
And strong-motion seismology, traditionally visualized as being within the exclusive area of earthquake engineering, is
having a rebirth as an interdisciplinary field with surprisingly wide impact in our efforts to understand active tectonic
processes close to the center of an earthquake—in the so-called “near field” (e.g., Hanks and McGuire, 1981; Aki, 1982;
Hartzell and Helmberger, 1982).
One of the most significant results of recent seismological and geologic studies of contemporary earthquakes is the
determination that they are far more different from one to another in their mechanical parameters than we had ever thought.
Although this is not particularly good news to those scientists attempting to find methods to predict earthquakes, it surely
means that we are gaining a far better understanding of the varied and complex nature of contemporary tectonic processes.
We now recognize, for example, that earthquake rupture and associated deformation take place at widely varying rates and
that the rupture process, particularly during large earthquakes, is by no means smoothly continuous (e.g., Aki, 1979;
Hartzell and Heaton, 1983).
In the author's opinion, however, the most spectacular progress in studies of active-tectonic processes in the past few
years has not been in seismology, but instead in the area of paleoseismology, where, in essence, a new research field has
been born. Paleoseismology is the study of prehistoric earthquakes based on interpretation of the geologic record that these
earthquakes have left behind (e.g., Wallace, 1981). Critical in developing this field have been (1) the recognition that
“fossil earthquakes” do indeed leave telltale signs in the geologic column and (2) improved techniques for the absolute age
dating of the affected rocks. Thus, it is not now uncommon to identify the specific dates of major earthquakes along a fault
over the past few thousands of years, permitting a far better quantitative understanding of the local earthquake hazard than
has ever been possible before, albeit on a probabilistic basis (e.g., Tanna Fault Trenching Research Group, 1983; Sieh,
1984).
Along with developments in paleoseismology, major advances in our understanding of slip rates on faults have also
occurred. Although both fields involve the establishment of time intervals during which tectonic events have taken place, it
is important to recognize the distinction: paleoseismology involves the establishment of dates of individual earthquakes or
earthquake sequences, whereas slip-rate studies establish only average rates of deformation. Further assumptions in both
are necessary to estimate seismic hazard (e.g., Wesnousky et al., 1984; Youngs and Coppersmith, 1985). Both are
important in the understanding of active-tectonic processes.
Slip-rate determination on faults are usually made by observing the offset of features of relatively recent and known
ages. Thus the slip rate of the San Andreas Fault of California has been determined by observing the offsets of numerous
geologic features such as Holocene stream channels (e.g., Wallace, 1968; Sieh and Jahns, 1984). Offsets of late Pleistocene
glacial moraines have permitted the assignment of slip rates to the Bocono Fault of Venezuela (Schubert, 1982), the Tuco
Fault of Peru (Yonekura et al., 1979), and the Fairweather Fault of Alaska (Plafker et al., 1978). Offset and deformed river
terrace deposits have been used extensively along the Alpine Fault system of New Zealand (e.g., Lensen and Vella, 1971;
Adams, 1980), the Median Tectonic Line of Japan (e.g., Okada, 1980), and faults of the Transverse Ranges in California
(e.g., Rockwell et al., 1984). Other youthful geologic features that are often offset and can sometimes be dated include soils
(e.g., Machette, 1978; Borchardt et al., 1980; Schlemon, 1985), young volcanic rocks (e.g., Roquemore, 1980), offset beach
deposits (e.g., Carver, 1970), and offset
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landslide deposits (e.g., Sieh, 1978a). Rates of erosional degradation of fault scarps have been used to put limits on slip
rates (e.g., Wallace, 1977; Bucknam and Anderson, 1979), and theoretical studies of this phenomenon appear particularly
promising (e.g., Nash, 1980; Colman and Watson, 1983; Hanks et al., 1984). Estimated rates of river entrenchment
associated with regional uplift have also been used to put limits on slip rates on individual faults within the uplifted area
(e.g., Allen et al., 1984). Other examples of slip-rate determinations and recurrence intervals between major earthquakes
have been summarized by Sieh (1981).
As opposed to slip-rate determinations, paleoseismological techniques must utilize geologic features associated with
individual past earthquakes, which is a task that usually constitutes a greater challenge to the geologist. Furthermore, good
exposures are almost always critical, which typically implies excavating trenches across the fault under investigation.
Among the features that have been used to identify individual paleo-earthquakes from exposures on trench walls are the
following:
1. Identification of a fault that can be shown to break older strata but which is, in turn, erosionally truncated and
buried by unbroken younger strata that had not yet been deposited at the time of the earthquake (Figure 9.1a ),
thus bracketing the time interval within which the earthquake must have occurred (e.g., Clark, et al., 1972;
Sieh, 1978b).
2. Identification of buried sand-blow deposits or injected sand dikes resulting from soil liquefaction during heavy
shaking (Figure 9.1b), usually close to or along the causative fault (e.g., Sieh, 1978b). Such deposits appear to
be the only remaining near-surface evidence of the two great historical earthquakes in the eastern United
States—the 1811–1812 events near New Madrid, Missouri (Russ, 1979) and the 1886 earthquake at
Charleston, South Carolina (Talwani and Cox, 1985). These localities are particularly important to understand,
inasmuch as similar deposits elsewhere may be the only surficial geologic clue to eastern U.S. paleoseismicity
—and therefore to regional seismic hazard evaluation.
3. Closely related to liquefaction is the phenomenon of intense “rumpling” of newly deposited water-laid
sediments (Figure 9.1c), associated with heavy localized shaking, which has also been used as an indication of
paleoseismicity (e.g., Sims, 1975; Reches and Hoexter, 1981).
4. Identification of a fault scarp that was subsequently buried by younger unbroken deposits (Figure 9.1d) (e.g.,
Sieh, 1978b).
5. Closely related to 4, identification of a buried landslide feature or a colluvial apron derived from an eroding
fault scarp (Figure 9.1e) (e.g., Swan et al., 1980).
FIGURE 9.1 Sketch diagrams of cross sections of geologic relations that might result from individual paleo-earthquakes. See
text for explanation.
6. Identification of a crevice associated with surficial fault movement that was later filled in by surficial materials
(Figure 9.1f) (e.g., Allen et al., 1984).
Although each of the above techniques applies ideally to a single paleo-earthquake, as illustrated by the examples in
Figure 9.1, a number of repeated earthquakes are likely to be represented in a given exposure, so that the resulting geologic
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relationships can become exceedingly complex; relationships resulting from one earthquake are modified by subsequent
earthquakes along the same fault. Trenches only 5 m deep across the San Andreas Fault in southern California, for
example, reveal evidence of 12 individual great earthquakes on the fault within the past 2000 years (Sieh, 1978b, 1984).
One might ask how exposures of fault offsets on vertical trench walls can display evidence of displacements along faults
such as the San Andreas that have had predominantly horizontal displacements. It turns out that
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even strike-slip faults usually have small components of vertical displacements, which tend faithfully to repeat themselves
from earthquake to earthquake at a given locality (Allen, 1981). Thus vertical trench walls normally display consistent
offsets of strata even along predominantly strike-slip faults. Evidence for the actual amount of strike-slip displacement
during individual paleo-earthquakes can sometimes be obtained from horizontal excavations that reveal stream
paleochannels or other offset linear features within the displaced strata (e.g., Sieh, 1984).
In all these paleoseismological techniques, optimal bracketing of the time of the earthquake requires dating of (1) the
oldest unbroken postearthquake strata and (2) the youngest deformed pre-earthquake strata. Unfortunately, the probability
is small of this being practical in any individual exposure. That is, the chances are slim of finding a locality where one of
these unique geologic situations can be observed and where the adjacent rocks can be radiometrically or otherwise dated.
Thus, it is not surprising that many, if not most, trenches excavated for paleoseismological studies have turned out to be
inconclusive. But those that have been successful, such as along the San Andreas Fault of California (e.g., Sieh, 1984), the
Wasatch Fault of Utah (e.g., Swan et al., 1980), and the Tanna Fault of Japan (Tanna Fault Trenching Research Group,
1983) have had profound implications in terms of seismic-hazard evaluation and the understanding of active-tectonic
processes. In commencing a paleoseismological investigation, therefore, one must be aware that the chances of immediate
success are not high, and numerous trenches and considerable perseverance are usually called for. It should also be pointed
out that many practical difficulties face one attempting to excavate trenches across faults, such as the problems of shallow
groundwater, absence of visible stratigraphy, property ownership complications, legally mandated safety precautions,
access for equipment, and cost.
In addition to geologic relations that might be observed in excavated trench walls, several other types of geologic
relation can be related to individual paleo-earthquakes. Along a strike-slip fault, for example, if abandoned offset stream
channels are spaced periodically with respect to their former headwaters (e.g., three abandoned channels laterally offset 10,
20, and 30 m from their former source across the fault) (Figure 9.2), one might conclude that each progressive offset was
caused by an individual earthquake with 10 m of displacement, and dating of related alluvium or terrace deposits might
permit age assignments to the individual earthquakes (e.g., Sieh and Jahns, 1984). Or in the case of raised marine wave-cut
benches, arguments can often be made that individual benches are related to abrupt uplifts during individual earthquakes,
such as has been well documented from the long historical records in Japan (e.g., Matsuda et al., 1978) and has been
important in quantifying seismic hazard in Alaska (e.g., Plafker and Rubin, 1978).
FIGURE 9.2 Sketch of map of offset stream channels that might result from repeated strike-slip displacements during
individual paleo-earthquakes.
In most paleoseismological investigations, it is necessarily assumed that surficial fault displacement and/or heavy
shaking has been limited to infrequent large earthquakes and that moderate-sized earthquakes or continuous fault slippage
have not occurred during most of the time interval between the large events. The justification for this assumption lies in the
increasing evidence that a given fault at a given locality is in fact typified by a “characteristic earthquake,” so that
earthquakes of comparable magnitudes tend to repeat one another faithfully and periodically (Schwartz and Coppersmith,
1984). Although relatively continuous fault slippage (or fault “creep”) is common during aftershock sequences, continuous
fault creep on a long-term basis has been identified only along limited parts of the San Andreas Fault in California (Schulz
et al., 1982; Louie et al., 1985) and at one locality along the North Anatolian Fault of Turkey (Aytun, 1982). It does not
appear to be as widespread a phenomenon as was postulated when continuous creep was first discovered on the San
Andreas Fault only 25 years ago (Steinbrugge et al., 1960), which is encouraging from the point of view of
paleoseismological investigations.
What are our seismological and paleoseismological needs, if researches in these fields are to continue to move
vigorously forward? In the area of seismology, a number of important needs can be pointed out.
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SEISMOLOGICAL AND PALEOSEISMOLOGICAL TECHNIQUES OF RESEARCH IN ACTIVE TECTONICS 152
1. Dense local seismographic networks, together with computerized data-analysis facilities, are absolutely
essential if detailed studies of earthquake-related active tectonics are to be carried out in a given area. Ideally,
the distance between seismometers should be roughly comparable to the average depth of earthquakes in the
area if good hypocentral locations (including focal depth) are to be obtained.
2. Modern techniques of seismic analysis, particularly as related to the understanding of fault mechanics, are
increasingly dependent on improved instrumentation, such as wideband, digitally recording seismometers.
Particularly for the studies of worldwide large earthquakes, which represent our best “window” to
contemporary tectonic processes, it is essential that support be obtained and continued for the proposed new
Global Seismographic Network (NRC Committee on Seismology, 1983; Incorporated Research Institutes for
Seismology, 1984), which will effectively replace the 23-year-old World Wide Standardized Seismographic
Network, which has served its purpose well but is now clearly outmoded.
3. Every effort should be made to increase the number of strong-motion accelerographs in areas—anywhere in the
world—where large earthquakes are most likely to occur (NRC Committee on Earthquake Enginering
Research, 1982). Despite the many years of recording, engineers and seismologists have obtained very few
records of the actual ground motion in the close vicinity of a truly great earthquake, and thus we are still
deficient in our knowledge of active-tectonic processes in the “near field” of such an event.
In the area of paleoseismology, perhaps our greatest need is simply for more trenches across active faults where
significant results might be obtained. But it is also critical that we improve our basic understanding in several of the
following areas:
1. Soils are among the geologic features most often disturbed by faulting and earthquakes, but our knowledge of
the ages of soils and their rates of development in different climatic environments leaves much to be desired.
Furthermore, slow gravity-induced downhill movements of soils (soil “creep”), even on very gentle slopes, can
sometimes cause numerous deformational features remarkably similar in appearance to those due to sudden
earthquake movements; a better understanding of this phenomenon is important.
2. The most common problem in paleoseismological investigations is that of dating the strata involved,
particularly those of an alluvial nature that still defy most of the traditional methods of absolute age dating.
Carbon-14 dating, for example, requires the collection of organic materials that are typically rare in alluvial
deposits. Improved geochemical techniques of dating young materials are critical, as well as the further
development of other promising techniques such as those based on paleomagnetism.
3. Insofar as many prehistoric earthquakes have been associated with the formation of geomorphic features such
as fault scarps that are still preserved on the landscape, an improved understanding of the erosional degradation
of such features is important if we are to understand their ages of formation. Recent research work in
quantitative geomorphology (e.g., Hanks et al., 1984) has been encouraging in this regard and deserves
continued vigorous support.
4. Detailed field studies of recent earthquakes, such as the 1980 Algerian disaster (e.g., Philip and Meghraoui,
1983), indicate that many types of surficial deformation other than primary fault scarps may occur in the
epicentral area. These features, too, may become buried in the geologic section and be recognizable at a later
date, so it is important to understand their origins and possible mechanisms of preservation. Only by studying
contemporary earthquakes in the field in great detail will we learn to recognize what is important in identifying
and interpreting “fossil” earthquakes.
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 155
10
Geodetic Measurement of Active-Tectonic Processes
WAYNE THATCHER
U.S. Geological Survey
ABSTRACT
Repeated geodetic measurements are sufficiently precise to detect the growth of mountains, the relative movements of the
great lithospheric plates, and present-day rates of fault slip and earthquake strain accumulation. The cyclic buildup and release
of strain across major faults can be monitored over the short term (years or less) using precise modern techniques, and longer-
term movements can frequently be determined by utilizing the historical record of measurements, which in many active regions
extend back into the late nineteenth century. Since about 1970, annual laser-ranging surveys in the western United States and
Alaska have delineated the pattern and current rates of deformation in these seismically active regions and have begun to
provide accurate fault-slip rates to compare with late Holocene geologic estimates. The imperfect balance between interseismic
strain buildup and coseismic strain release introduces a component of permanent deformation into the earthquake cycle that
under favorable conditions can be estimated geodetically, providing another link between present-day movements and those
preserved in the recent geologic record. Examples include tectonically elevated former shorelines related to great interplate-
thrust earthquakes and deformed river profiles observed in intraplate reverse-faulting environments. Despite the relative
uniformity of longer-term deformation rates, accumulating evidence indicates considerable short-term irregularity, at least in
some regions. Perhaps the best documented example comes from southern California, where rapid, correlated changes among
gravity, elevation, and horizontal strain measurements have recently been observed.
INTRODUCTION
The principle of uniformitarianism leads us to expect that tectonic movements that have occurred in the geologically
recent past are taking place at present, and with sufficiently accurate measurements this activity should be observable
today. The often spectacular surface deformation that accompanies major earthquakes is readily visible, and precise
techniques are not needed for its detection. Most surface movements are, however, more subtle. Typical rates of
deformation in tectonically active regions are a few parts in ten million per year (0.1 ppm/yr or 0.1 µrad/yr). To monitor
these faint motions closely, geodetic techniques must measure changes in line length and surface tilt or angular changes
between survey monuments to a precision comparable with these annual increments. This capability is within the range of
modern methods, and although ear
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 156
lier measurements are less precise, deformation rates of this order, averaged over periods of a decade or longer, are readily
obtainable from the earlier historical data.
Because of their high precision and generally wide areal extent (~10 km aperture or greater), geodetic observations
made at the Earth's surface provide a measure of the deformation actually occurring at the depths where damaging
earthquakes originate (about 20 km or less). Regions of tectonic deformation are invariably seismically active, and it is
convenient to characterize the alternating periods of slow aseismic deformation and abrupt earthquake strain release in
terms of a simple, repetitive sequence—the seismic deformation cycle. Figure 10.1 shows both the idealized model of the
cycle first suggested by Reid (1910) and the more refined one accepted today. Both are considerably simplified, showing
the time history of cumulative deformation of a single point or localized region, ignoring spatial variations in movement
history, and smoothing out temporal fluctuations in deformation rate.
Reid's elastic rebound theory, based on his studies of geodetic measurements related to the great 1906 San Francisco
earthquake, postulates that earthquakes represent the release of accumulated elastic strains, and Reid assumed that a major
earthquake would not recur until all strains released by the preceding event had reaccumulated [Figure 10.1(a)]. However,
geologic field observations certainly demonstrate that not all crustal deformation is elastic and recoverable; indeed, in some
seismically active regions inelastic processes such as folding and metamorphic deformation may pre-dominate. As
Figure 10.1(b) shows, the existence of a significant component of permanent deformation notably modifies the cycle. Rapid
postearthquake deformation, which can persist from years to decades following major events, introduces additional
complexity into the simple cycle visualized by Reid.
FIGURE 10.1 Simplified forms of the earthquake deformation cycle. Cumulative deformation (e.g., strain, tilt, ground
displacement) measured at the Earth's surface is plotted as a function of time. Step offsets correspond to the occurrence times
of major earthquakes. Dashed lines give failure level, constant in the idealized cycle (a), and (b) varying with time when the
effects of permanent inelastic deformation are included.
Thus, in the modern view the complete cycle consists of the coseismic deformation that accompanies the earthquake
itself, the postseismic transient movements that follow it, and the relatively steady interseismic motions that comprise the
majority of the cycle. Permanent deformation results if the interearthquake strain buildup is not exactly balanced at all
points by the coseismic strain release. Where permanent movements have been documented, it has been shown that the
coseismic offset can either locally exceed the accumulated interearthquake straining or be less than this amount; both cases
are illustrated in Figure 10.1(b).
Geodetic measurements are then capable of delineating major features of the earthquake deformation cycle and closely
monitoring current movement patterns. Historical surveys, which typically have repeat times of decades or longer, sample
long portions of the cycle, record coseismic and postseismic movements related to past great earthquakes, and provide
estimates of the permanent deformation component of the cycle. Modern observations have been most useful in
determining interseismic movement rates with high accuracy and refined temporal resolution and are beginning to provide
precise estimates of present-day fault slip rates and evidence for hitherto unsuspected short-term irregularities in
deformation rate. The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate these capabilities with examples drawn from recent work,
especially emphasizing the relation between the geodetic results and those obtained using the geologic measures of
deformation and deformation rate discussed elsewhere in this volume.
PRESENT-DAY DEFORMATION RATES
Rates of deformation have been obtained for much of the seismically active western United States and parts of Alaska;
these results have recently been summarized by Savage (1983). In addition, extensive geodetic surveys in active regions
elsewhere in the world, notably Japan and New Zealand, have been used to determine patterns and rates of contemporary
deformation in tectonic environments similar to those found in this country.
Because of California's high seismicity and population density, intensive measurement efforts are concentrated there.
Some typical results, from a laser-ranging (trilateration) network in the southern San Francisco Bay area, are illustrated in
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Figure 10.2. The network
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 157
contains 43 lines whose lengths have been measured roughly annually since 1970; the precision of each measurement
depends on line length but averages about 3 parts in 107. The line length changes during 1970–1980 have been analyzed by
Prescott et al. (1981), who determined the average displacement rate of each station relative to a fixed center of mass of the
network as a whole.
FIGURE 10.2 (A) Stations and lines observed in the southern San Francisco Bay region. Active faults are shown for reference.
(B) Displacement rates parallel to N 35° W plotted versus distance normal to strike of San Andreas Fault. (C) Schematic
interpretation of (B). Solid curve was drawn for 12 mm/yr slip below 7 km on the San Andreas Fault, 6 mm/yr rigid-block slip
on the Hayward Fault, and 6 mm/yr rigid-block slip on the Calaveras Fault. Half of Calaveras fault slip was distributed over 5-
km-wide zone. Dashed line is displacement field that would be observed if motion were distributed uniformly. From Prescott
et al. (1981), with permission of the American Geophysical Union.
Figure 10.2(B) shows the displacement rate components parallel to the San Andreas Fault plotted versus distance from
the fault, and Figure 10.2(C) is a schematic interpretation of this result. Clear offsets occur across the Hayward and
Calaveras Faults, and their magnitudes agree well with observed creep rates obtained independently from small-aperture
arrays and wire extensometers that span each of these faults (see Sylvester, Chapter 11, this volume, for discussion of these
measurement methods).
The displacement-rate profile across the San Andreas Fault is more interesting. The absence of any discontinuity at the
fault trace indicates that the San Andreas is locked at the surface; increasing movement rates away from the fault suggest
that it is freely slipping below some locking depth, D. A simple calculation shows that for such a model the deep slip rate is
12±4 mm/yr and D=7 km. This same fault slipped 2 to 3 m from the surface to depths of 5 to 10 km at the time of the great
1906 San Francisco earthquake (Thatcher, 1975), and the current deformation pattern represents strain buildup leading to
the repeat of a large or great earthquake like the 1906 shock. If slip rates inferred for the past decade are representative of
the long-term rate, and if coseismic offsets of 2 to 3 m per event are typical of this segment of the San Andreas Fault, then
the average recurrence interval for such events is 170 to 250 yr.
Geologic data independently support the geodetic results. Although direct evidence is lacking on occurrence times and
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offsets of past events, measures of late Holocene slip rate confirm the value obtained from geodetic measurements. Dated
offsets of late Holocene geomorphic features that cross the San Andreas Fault near Crystal Springs Reservoir, 40 km
northwest of the geodetic network shown in Figure 10.2(A), yield a slip rate of 12 mm/yr over the last 1130±160 yr (Hall,
1984).
Geodetic estimates of slip rate have been obtained for several other segments of the San Andreas system (see
Table 10.1), and more will become available in the future. Several of those listed in Table 10.1 are only approximate and
are subject to a number of caveats: often the entire deformation zone of a single fault is not spanned, subsidiary subparallel
faults may contribute to observed movements, and deformation rates (see below) may vary notably over time scales of a few
years or less.
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 158
TABLE 10.1 Geodetic Estimates of Slip Rate on San Andreas Fault System
Location Rate (mm/yr) Reference
San Francisco 12±4 Prescott et al. (1981)
Central California 38±5 Thatcher (1979)
Carrizo Plain 32 King et al. (1983)
“Big Bend” Region 25 McGarr et al. (1982)
Nonetheless, geodetic measurements can, under favorable conditions, provide accurate estimates of contemporary
rates of fault slip. The geodetic estimates complement those obtained by geologic methods. When both are available, late
Quaternary or Holocene estimates can be compared with present-day values. When, owing to vagaries of erosion and
nondeposition, suitable geomorphic features are absent, geodetic measurements can provide needed constraints.
SOCIETAL IMPACT, AN EXAMPLE
Networks similar to those in the San Francisco Bay area are located at over 30 other sites elsewhere in California and
the western United States, and results from 9 of these are summarized in Figure 10.3.
The strain field obtained for the Seattle network is of special interest because of the light it sheds on interaction
between the North American and Juan de Fuca plates (J.F., Figure 10.3). The most important feature of the deformation
within this net is the orientation of the direction of maximum compressive strain. Elsewhere along the Pacific coast of
North America the compressive strain axis is oriented roughly north-south. Near Seattle, however, it is directed N 70° E,
close to the expected convergence direction of N 50° E between the Juan de Fuca and North American plates (Riddihough,
1977). The most straightforward interpretation of this result (Savage et al., 1981) is that the convergent boundary between
these two plates is now locked and that current deformation near Seattle represents the accumulation of elastic strains that
will eventually be released by the occurrence of a great subduction-zone earthquake off the coast of Washington.
Comparison of the seismicity distribution and plate-tectonic setting of the Pacific Northwest with other subduction
zones supports this interpretation, since tectonically similar regions elsewhere accommodate plate convergence by periodic
great earthquakes rather than by aseismic subduction (Heaton and Kanamori, 1984). No great earthquake has been recorded
off the Washington coast, and the hypothesis that subduction occurs seismically will not be proven until one does.
Nonetheless, the arguments favoring this interpretation have had an important impact on land-use planning and have proven
sufficiently compelling to effect a major re-evaluation of the seismic hazard that a major subduction-zone earthquake would
pose for critical facilities located in the region.
FIGURE 10.3 Location of trilateration networks in western United States and the principal strain rates measured in each.
Shown beneath the network name are the time interval covered, the direction of maximum extension, and the principal strain
rates (in strain/year). Also shown in the southwest corner of Canada is one triangulation network with the principal deviatoric
strain rates measured there. The plate boundaries along the Pacific coast are indicated by the usual symbols (ridge by double
line, trench by hachured line, and transform by dashed line). The Juan de Fuca plate is identified by initials J.F. From Savage
(1983), copyright Annual Reviews, Inc.
IRREGULARITIES IN DEFORMATION RATE
The largest variations in movement rate occur during the postseismic phase of the seismic deformation cycle, and once
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these transients have died out the measured strain rates are, as a rule, at least roughly constant. This constancy is
demonstrated by comparisons between historical and modern data, and precise measurements of the past decade also show
that year-to-year variations in rate are generally small. Nonetheless, survey-to-survey rate fluctuations nominally above
random measurement errors do occur, and in a few cases the variation in deformation rate appears to be quite large.
One of the better documented examples of this kind
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 159
comes from southern California, where overlapping observations using three independent measurement systems have been
made since 1977 (Jachens et al., 1983). The location of each of these geodetic networks is shown in Figure 10.4. Precise
relative gravity measurements have been made twice annually using sets of three to five gravimeters; in each case
observations are referenced to a base station located at Riverside (solid dot, Figure 10.4). Elevation differences have been
measured annually by leveling surveys carried out over five routes 30 to 100 km long. The horizontal strain field has been
monitored by annual surveys of seven trilateration (laser-ranging) networks.
These measurements overlap in three different localities, results for which are shown in Figure 10.5. Four independent
parameters are needed to construct this figure; two of them are determined from the data, and two are arbitrary and may be
adjusted to improve the match between the three measurement types. The two arbitrary parameters are the absolute levels
of two of the time histories relative to the third at each locality. The two constrained parameters are determined from
temporally coincident or nearly coincident observations. Comparing changes in gravity with changes in areal strain at all
localities establishes a common linear scale factor relating the two (0.05 ppm/µgal), and a similar factor relates gravity and
elevation changes (í0.2 µgal/ mm). The gravity/areal strain relation is the better determined because more data
comparisons are available. However, the coefficient relating gravity and elevation changes agrees with independent
determinations obtained using coseismic data from several large earthquakes.
FIGURE 10.4 Index map showing locations of gravity stations, leveling lines, and trilateration networks in southern California
that have been surveyed repeatedly during the past 5 to 10 yr. Shaded areas of trilateration networks are local nets used in this
study. From Jachens et al. (1983), copyright 1983 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
FIGURE 10.5 Temporal changes in gravity (įg), elevation (įe), and areal strain (įǻ) measurements from three areas of
southern California. Error bars on the gravity data represent 1 standard error, and those on elevation and strain data represent 1
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standard deviation. Dashed lines connect gravity data. From Jachens et al. (1983), copyright 1983 by the American Association
for the Advancement of Science.
Despite several significant disagreements, the accord among the three independent measurements is rather good.
Although the 5-yr record is insufficient to establish a long-term trend in these parameters, departures from uniformity are
striking and survey-to-survey fluctuations are large. While other data (e.g., Langbein et al., 1982) exhibit similar short-term
variability, not enough measurements of comparable precision and redundancy yet exist to decide clearly whether the
irregularities shown in Figure 10.5 are relatively common or extremely rare. Nonetheless, it appears that at least in
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 160
some regions a relatively long record is needed to determine representative interseismic movement rates, and caution is
thus required in extrapolating a few years of measurements, however precise, to the long term.
PERMANENT DEFORMATION
Deformed late Quaternary and Holocene structural features are common in seismically active regions. Frequently this
permanent deformation is crudely similar to the pattern of coseismic movements observed in historical earthquakes,
indicating that the two deformation processes are related and showing that at least in some regions strain accumulation and
release are not in perfect balance. Here, two examples are used to demonstrate this imbalance and to illustrate the several
links that connect the geologic and geodetic records.
The 1983 Coalinga earthquake (M=6.5) occurred on a fault lying beneath Anticline Ridge, one of a series of active
Quaternary structures that borders the San Joaquin Valley and lies 40 to 80 km east of the San Andreas Fault in central
California (Figure 10.6). Seasonal streams that existed prior to the initiation of folding and uplift cross the growing
anticlinal structures, and this active tectonism has apparently altered their channels and deformed their streambeds (King
and Stein, 1983). Alluvial-fan surfaces that flank Los Gatos Creek where it crosses the southeastern end of Anticline Ridge
are about 10 m higher than fan surfaces both upstream and downstream of this region. The streambed profile itself mimics
this behavior, but with smaller departures from an inferred undisturbed gradient [Figure 10.7(A)]. King and Stein concluded
that both profiles depart from their equilibrium shapes because of recent uplift of Anticline Ridge. However, deposition
may also contribute to the profile changes, since a tectonic shallowing of stream gradient will decrease flow velocity and
encourage local deposition. If so, this could explain why the maximum fan height is displaced upstream about 3 km from
where the inferred crest of Anticline Ridge crosses Los Gatos Creek (R.S.Stein, U.S. Geological Survey, personal
communication, 1984). Detrital charcoal dated at 2550±130 yr BP provides a maximum terrace uplift rate (ignoring
deposition) of 4 mm/yr.
Leveling surveys show that in 1983, 0.5 m of coseismic uplift took place near the top of Anticline Ridge, and smaller
amounts of subsidence occurred to the southwest [Figure 10.7(B)]. No surface faulting associated with the mainshock was
observed. As Figure 10.7(B) shows, the pattern of inferred uplift along the
FIGURE 10.6 Simplified map of the surface deposits in the epicentral region of the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake. The
approximate surface projection of a fault plane for the earthquake consistent with the seismic and geodetic data is shown. The
present river courses are shown by solid lines, and old river courses are shown by dashed lines. A dotted line indicates the
course of the geodetic traverse. Note that the width of the structure where it is crossed by the geodetic line is about twice the
width of the structure crossed by Los Gatos Creek. From King and Stein (1983).
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 161
stream course is sufficiently similar to the coseismic movements of 1983 to indicate a relation between the two. Of course,
the interseismic phase of the cycle will also contribute to observed movements, and erosion and deposition will further
modify any tectonically developed topography. However, neither the interseismic movement pattern nor the recurrence
interval for 1983-type events is known, and consequently no further constraints on the deformation cycle can be extracted
from the available data.
FIGURE 10.8 Location map of southwest Japan. Inset
shows plate-tectonic setting. Arrows at Nankai Trough
give relative motion of Philippine Sea with respect to
Eurasian plate. Rectangles are surface projections of
coseismic fault planes of 1944 and 1946 earthquakes, and
solid dots with arrows show epicentral locations slip
vectors for these two earthquakes. Heavy lines on trench-
FIGURE 10.7 (A) River terrace and river bed profiles for
facing coastlines locate uplifted late Quaternary marine
Los Gatos Creek. All the points except those marked by
terraces, and solid line with arrows identifies the Median
triangles, which were measured in the field, are taken from
Tectonic Line (M.T.L.), an active right-lateral strike-slip
the 7.5ƍ topographic maps. The profiles follow the courses
fault. Dashed lines denote leveling routes, and solid
of the river except for some of the extreme meanders
triangles locate tidal gauge stations. From Thatcher
where the profile follows a direct route. (B) Terrace uplift
(1984), with permission of the American Geophysical
for Los Gatos Creek, taken from (A) above is indicated by
Union.
solid line, and a profile extrapolated to the position of the
leveling route is indicated by the dotted line. The 1983
earthquake uplift is shown in the lower frame, with uplift
projected perpendicular to fault strike. After King and
Stein (1983).
Both the geodetic and geologic records are more complete for the great plate-boundary earthquakes of southwest
Japan. The regional tectonic setting is illustrated in Figure 10.8. The Philippine Sea plate underthrusts the Eurasian plate
along the Nankai Trough, and a great earthquake occurred along this boundary in 1946. A previous great shock ruptured
this same segment of plate boundary in 1854, and historical records indicate an average recurrence interval of 117 years for
the past six events on this segment of the Nankai Trough (Ando, 1975).
An extensive leveling network on the island of Shikoku and adjacent Honshu has been surveyed five times or more
since about 1890, and numerous tidal gauge stations provide independent constraints on the vertical movement history of
the region. In all, the geodetic record is about 90 years long, samples all parts of the deformation cycle, and has a duration
comparable with the time interval between the past two events. Although this measurement interval does overlap two
adjacent cycles, a single complete cycle can be synthesized provided the last two are similar. Two lines of evidence support
the validity of this assumption: (1) the 1854 and 1946 earthquakes are of comparable size, and (2) the current (~1970–
1980) patterns and rates of deformation are ap
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 162
preaching those measured during ~1890–1930, a somewhat later stage of the preceding movement cycle [see
Figure 10.9(C)].
FIGURE 10.9 (A) Summary of observed vertical movements plotted versus distance from Nankai Trough. Solid line shows
coseismic movements due to 1946 earthquake, and dashed line shows cumulative deformation inferred for one complete
movement cycle. Dotted portions of both curves indicate interpolation across the Inland Sea. (B) Cumulative vertical
displacement in millimeters (scale at left), west coast of Muroto Promontory, and marine terrace height in meters (scale at
right), both plotted versus distance from Nankai Trough. (C) Synthesized deformation cycle for southeast Shikoku, showing
cumulative tilt changes versus time since 1946 Nankaido earthquake. Pre-1946 data (open circles) have been extrapolated to
post-1946 time interval. Inferred movements are indicated by dashed lines. From Thatcher (1984), with permission of the
American Geophysical Union.
The cumulative vertical movements during 1890–1980 are thus representative of the permanent deformation per cycle
and Figure 10.9(A) compares these displacements with the coseismic movements of 1946. The two deformation patterns
resemble each other, with uplift nearest the Nankai Trough and subsidence further inland. The cumulative movements are
also qualitatively consistent with the deformation and areal distribution of late Quaternary-raised shorelines on the southern
coasts of Kii Peninsula and Shikoku. Figure 10.9(B) compares the cumulative level changes near southeast Shikoku
(Muroto Point) with the heights of a well-preserved marine terrace cut during the last interglacial period and subsequently
uplifted tectonically. Although the tilt directions agree, the rates of movement do not. Maximum uplift rates during the past
120,000 yr average 1.5 mm/yr, whereas those since 1890 are three times larger. Tilt rates disagree by comparable amounts,
and discrepancies elsewhere are even larger. For example, near the tip of Kii Peninsula cumulative post-1890 uplift is
comparable with that measured near Muroto Point, but the S-terrace height is only about 60 m above current sea level.
Farther inland, geologically recent submergence is suggested by the indented character of the coastlines. However, no
geologic estimates of subsidence rates are available to compare with the post-1890 value of 3 to 4 mm/yr.
In Figure 10.9(C) the near-trench tilt history for a single deformation cycle has been synthesized from available
leveling data. The leveling route, in southeast Shikoku, is the same as that used in Figure 10.9(B), and the results of five
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different surveys have been employed in the reconstruction. The similarity of recent (1964–1980) tilt rates with those
obtained prior to 1946 is quite evident, and in Figure 10.9(C) the pre-1946 data have been extrapolated to the current
movement cycle. The synthesized cycle is quite similar to the idealized one illustrated in Figure 10.1(B) and clearly
exhibits the main elements of the cycle: the postseismic transient, the relatively steady interseismic phase of the cycle, and
the significant component of permanent deformation.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
During the next decade, full implementation of highly accurate extraterrestrial geodetic surveying methods will have
an important impact on crustal deformation measurements in active regions. Satellites of the Global Positioning System
(GPS) now being deployed in very well-determined orbits by the U.S. Department of Defense are of particular interest. By
rang
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENT OF ACTIVE-TECTONIC PROCESSES 163
ing to these satellites from the Earth's surface it is anticipated that relative horizontal and vertical positions can be
determined within a few centimeters (NRC Panel on Crustal Movement Measurements, 1981). Furthermore, this precision
can be obtained at large station separations (hundreds of kilometers), adjacent stations need not themselves be intervisible,
and measurements can be made even in overcast conditions.
The precision of GPS measurements degrades for intercontinental station separations (~1000–10,000 km). However,
other extraterrestrial surveying methods such as Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Satellite Laser Ranging
(SLR) are expected to be capable of measuring relative positions over these longer ranges to 3 cm or better (NRC Panel on
Crustal Movement Measurements, 1981).
Relative to conventional geodetic methods, the most important feature of the new space techniques is the capability
for measuring long ranges with high precision. Thus, for station separations greater than about 100 km, GPS methods are
expected to become more accurate than land-based surveying. VLBI or SLR measurements over intercontinental baselines
will then be capable of resolving relative movements of the Earth's major tectonic plates, and GPS networks with station
separations of about 100 km can be used to outline the broad-scale deformation patterns in intracontinental active regions
like the western United States and central Asia.
Depending on their ultimately achievable accuracy and measurement costs, extraterrestrial methods may also be
competitive with land-based surveying over shorter ranges as well. In remote and inhospitable environments, where clear
sighting conditions are rare and station intervisibility is difficult to obtain, GPS methods may also prove to be more feasible
and cost-effective than conventional techniques.
Geodetic observations provide a direct measure of strain changes occurring at seismogenic depths, and as a result they
will play an important role in determining the degree to which large, destructive earthquakes are predictable. In recent years
geodetic monitoring has been intensified in areas of identified high seismic potential both in the United States and
elsewhere. Further detailed monitoring can be anticipated in the future. Most of this work comprises annual surveys, but in
several parts of California monthly and weekly surveys are now being carried out as well (Langbein et al., 1982; Prescott
and Savage, 1984). With a long record of frequent measurements, the patterns and rates of interseismic movement will be
outlined in considerable detail. The typical variability of these patterns and rates as a function of time will be determined as
well. Eventually, large earthquakes will occur in these closely studied regions. When these events take place, the
accumulated data should be sufficient to determine precisely whether diagnostic crustal movement anomalies preceded
their occurrence.
REFERENCES
Ando, M. (1975). Source mechanism and tectonic significance of historical earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, Japan, Tectonophysics 27, 119–140.
Hall, N.T., (1984). Holocene history of the San Andreas Fault between Crystal Springs Reservoir and San Andreas Dam, San Mateo County, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am. 74, 281–299.
Heaton, T.H., and H.Kanamori (1984). Seismic potential associated with subduction in the northwestern United States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 74, 933–
942.
Jachens, R.C., W.Thatcher, C.W.Roberts, and R.S.Stein (1983). Correlation of changes in gravity, elevation and strain in southern California, Science
219, 1215–1217.
King, G., and R.Stein (1983). Surface folding, river terrace deformation rate and earthquake repeat time in a reverse faulting environment: The Coalinga,
California earthquake of May 1983, in The 1983 Coalinga, California, Earthquake, J.H.Bennett and R.W. Sherburne, eds., Calif. Div. Mines and
Geol. Spec. Publ. 66, Sacramento, Calif., pp. 261–274.
King, N.E., G.Gu, and W.H.Prescott (1983). Strain accumulation on the San Andreas Fault south of Parkfield, California, 1970–1983, EOS 64, 841.
Langbein, J.O., M.F.Linker, A.McGarr, and L.E.Slater (1982). Observations of strain accumulation across the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale,
California, with a two- color geodimeter, Science 218, 1217–1219.
McGarr, A., M.D.Zoback, and T.C.Hanks (1982). Implications of an elastic analysis of in situ stress measurements near the San Andreas Fault, J.
Geophys. Res. 87, 7797–7806.
NRC Panel on Crustal Movement Measurements (1981). Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation—Toward a Strategy, National Academy Press,
Washington, D.C., 109 pp.
Prescott, W.H., and J.C.Savage (1984). Frequent geodolite distance measurements and the detection of temporal variations in strain accumulation, J.
Geophys. Res. 89.
Prescott, W.H., M.Lisowski, and J.C.Savage (1981). Geodetic measurement of crustal deformation on the San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaveras Faults
near San Francisco, California, J. Geophys. Res. 86, 10853–10869.
Reid, H.F. (1910). Permanent displacements of the ground, in The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906, Report of the State Earthquake Investigation
Commission, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C., Vol. 2, pp. 16–28.
Riddihough, R.P. (1977). A model for recent plate interactions off Canada's west coast, Can. J. Earth Sci. 14, 384–396.
Savage, J.C. (1983). Strain accumulation in western United States, Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 11, 11–43.
Savage, J.C., M.Lisowski, and W.H.Prescott (1981). Geodetic strain measurements in Washington, J. Geophys. Res. 86, 4929–4940.
Thatcher, W. (1975). Strain accumulation and release mechanism of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, J. Geophys. Res. 80, 4862–4872.
Thatcher, W. (1979). Systematic inversion of geodetic data in central California, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 2283–2295.
Thatcher, W. (1984). The earthquake deformation cycle at the Nankai Trough, Southwest Japan, J. Geophys. Res. 89, 3087–3101.
the authoritative version for attribution.
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NEAR- FIELD TECTONIC GEODESY 164
11
Near-Field Tectonic Geodesy
ARTHUR G.SYLVESTER
University of California, Santa Barbara
ABSTRACT
Fault movements may be monitored by precise surveying of closely spaced arrays of permanent bench marks within 1 km of a
fault. The geodetic data may complement data from tiltmeters and creepmeters as well as data from large aperature trilateration
or triangulation arrays. If resurveys are temporally fortuitous, preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic movement data are
obtained.
Closely spaced, linear arrays of nails in pavement across active faults provide a quick, simple, and inexpensive way to locate
and measure horizontal displacement across narrow, well-defined zones of faulting.
Small-aperature trilateration and alignment arrays document horizontal creep across faults of the San Andreas system,
especially in central California, where as much as 32 mm/yr right slip has taken place for more than two decades. Small-
aperature triangulation arrays have also identified horizontal creep on faults elsewhere in California at rates of up to 5 mm/yr.
Short level lines may detect height changes of 0.5 mm. Crustal tilt may be measured to about 0.5 µrad if special attention is
paid to type and stability of bench marks. Thus, Chinese precise leveling has documented several centimeters of vertical
movement within a few hundred meters of faults a few days before surface rupture; 14-cm vertical afterslip was measured in
the 10 weeks following the 1979 Imperial, California, earthquake; and 35 mm/yr nontectonic subsidence has occurred across a
fault in Fremont Valley, California, for at least the last 9 yr.
Spirit-level optical tilt of triangular arrays of bench marks (dry-tilt) yields tilt data to a precision of about 1 µrad sufficient to
document major movement, especially near volcanoes. From 10s to 1000s of microradians of tilt occurred over a few days or
weeks prior to eruptions of the Kilauea and Mount St. Helens volcanoes.
INTRODUCTION
Only a short while ago tectonic movements of the Earth's crust were generally considered to be too slow to be
observed in a lifetime, and long periods of inactivity were believed to be punctuated only at the most inconvenient times
and places for man by surficial fault ruptures accompanying large, infrequent earthquakes. To be sure, Reid (1910)
estimated a steady movement rate of the Farallan Islands relative to Mount Hamilton, California, at about 5 cm/yr from
1850 to 1905, and in 1938 Icelanders commenced geodetic measurements to observe tectonic movements in the
neovolcanic zone of north Iceland (Niemczyk, 1943). However, the discov
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NEAR- FIELD TECTONIC GEODESY 165
ery in 1960 of aseismic slip on the central segment of the San Andreas Fault, manifested by offset buildings, irrigation
ditches, and vineyard rows (Steinbrugge et al., 1960), changed many of our notions about fault mechanics, because here
was an example of a geologic process occurring at rates measureable on a human time scale.
Because the movements seemed to be limited to a zone only a few meters wide, Tocher and his colleagues (Tocher et
al., 1968; Nason and Tocher, 1970) initiated a variety of small-scale geodetic and instrumental studies to measure these
minor, but significant movements close to the fault. Monitoring of several faults, chiefly in California but also in New
Zealand (Lensen and Suggate, 1969) led to the equally surprising discoveries of minor fault movements that preceded
earthquakes (Allen and Smith, 1966), that followed earthquakes (Smith and Wyss, 1968; Wallace and Roth, 1968), and that
were triggered by earthquakes (Allen et al., 1972). In all cases the surficial displacements were confined to narrow zones
less than 100 m wide along the fault. Although the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey (now the National Geodetic Survey)
has conducted near-field triangulation monitoring of faults since about 1900 (Meade, 1971), several investigators including
C.R.Allen, R.O.Burford, G.J.Lensen, R.D.Nason, J.C.Savage, A.G. Sylvester, and D.Tocher devised and initiated a variety
of new near-field geodetic and instrumental techniques in the late 1960s and 1970s to determine the extent and rate of
creep, whether creep may occur on other faults or on other kinds of faults, about the timing and magnitude of preseismic
slip, the amount and duration of postseismic slip, and the significance of dynamically triggered slip.
These small movements, now found to measure from 1 to 30 mm/yr, have an impact on society as can be demonstrated
by damage to buildings, streets, and subsurface pipelines in the town of Hollister, California, insofar as preseismic slip may
provide information leading to the prediction of earthquakes and to the extent that earthquakes on a known active fault may
trigger equal or greater movement on other faults presumed to be inactive. At the very least, understanding these
movements may provide greater insight into earthquake mechanisms, knowledge of which will be requisite for eventual
prediction of earthquakes.
CREEP, AFTERSLIP, AND DYNAMICALLY TRIGGERED SLIP
It is useful to discuss briefly a preferred nomenclature for minor fault slip of very different origin, because ambiguities
arise when the term “creep” is simply used for all these kinds of fault slip (Table 11.1).
TABLE 11.1 Earthquake Mechanics of Minor Movements
Movement Rate References
Tectonic
creep 1–30 mm/yr Steinbrugge et al. (1960)
preseismic slip 1-? mm/yr Allen and Smith (1966)
coseismic slip 1 to thousands of mm Many authors
dynamically triggered slip 1–30 mm Allen et al. (1972)
afterslip 1–300 mm/yr Allen and Smith (1966)
Nontectonic subsidence 1–35 mm/yr Many authors
The great difference among these terms is illustrated in Figure 11.1, which shows the magnitude of slip as a function
of time. Creep is aseismic fault slip: it may be stable and continuous or temporally and spatially episodic (Yamashita and
Burford, 1973; King et al., 1973; Nason et al., 1974; Evans et al., 1981), and the long-term rate may vary before or after
earthquakes along the creeping fault segment (Nason and Tocher, 1971; Burford et al., 1973). Fault creep precedes some
earthquakes, as is summarized by Mjachkin et al. (1972), Scholz et al. (1973), and Whitcomb et al. (1973), and offers the
hope that near-field geodetic observations
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FIGURE 11.1 Types of tectonic creep.
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may be one of the effective methods for earthquake prediction. The tectonic significance of creep is still a topic of debate:
some investigators believe that creep relieves sufficient buildup of stress so that large earthquakes are precluded in a
creeping segment of a fault (Brown and Wallace, 1968; Prescott and Lisowski, 1983), and that notion seems to have gained
support by great accumulation of strain data over the last decade (Langbein, 1981). Alternatively, creep is postulated to be
the first step in progressive failure leading to a major earthquake (Nason, 1973).
TABLE 11.2 Near-Field Tectonic Geodesy
Motion/Technique Measured Changes Typical Aperture Required Precision Frequency of Resurvey
Horizontal
alignment Deflection 100 m +1 mm Months
triangulation Angles 1000 m +5 mm Months to years
trilateration Lengths 1000 m +5 mm Months to years
Vertical
precise leveling Heights 1000 m +1 mm Months
Tilt
precise leveling Heights 500 m +1 µrad Months
dry tilt Heights 40 m +10 µrad Months to years
Afterslip is fault slip that occurs in the days, weeks, or even months following the main earthquake. Most reported
(Nakamura and Tsuneishi, 1967; Ambrayses, 1970) and documented instances of significant afterslip are for strike-slip
faults. The principal characteristic of afterslip is that the slip rate decreases logarithmically (Smith and Wyss, 1968;
Wallace and Roth, 1968; Sylvester and Pollard, 1975; Bucknam et al., 1978; Cohn et al., 1982; Harsh, 1982). The
magnitude of displacement may equal or exceed the coseismic slip, as has been observed in strike-slip earthquakes (Smith
and Wyss, 1968; Burford, 1972; Bucknam et al., 1978; Sharp and Lienkaemper, 1982), but in other kinds of earthquakes it
is small relative to the coseismic slip (Lensen and Suggate, 1968; Lensen and Otway, 1971; Sylvester and Pollard, 1975;
Stein and Thatcher, 1981). Whether afterslip is truly aseismic has not been clearly established, although Stein and Lisowski
(1983) found that afterslip following the 1979 Homestead Valley, California, earthquake (ML=5.8) was much greater than
the summed M0 of the aftershocks, and they concluded that the afterslip, which constituted about 10 percent of the seismic
slip, was aseismic.
Dynamically triggered slip is coseismic slip on a fault or faults outside the epicentral area of the main shock. The
phenomenon has been documented in moderate earthquakes in the Salton Trough, where up to 30 mm slip was found on
faults as far as 40 km from the causative fault and epicenter (Allen et al., 1972; Fuis, 1982; Sieh, 1982). Ambiguities
inevitably arise in the definition, however, such as in cases of the May 1983 Coalinga (ML=6.7) earthquake where
aftershocks and surface ruptures occurred on faults distant from and not be
FIGURE 11.2 Offset of line of nails across San Andreas Fault near San Juan Bautista. Line was originally straight in 1967.
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lieved to be directly related to the fault that caused the main earthquake (Hart and McJunkin, 1983; Stein, 1983). Some of
the myriad of surface ruptures produced in the 1971 San Fernando (ML=6.4) earthquake may have been dynamically
triggered.
METHODS, TECHNIQUES, AND RESULTS
Geodesists have classically documented the direction and magnitude of small crustal movements by repeated surveys
of arrays of bench marks and by comparing changes in line lengths, angles, or heights among bench marks between an
initial and a subsequent survey. If a surveying array covers a large area, then accumulated survey errors may yield changes
of position that are nearly equal in magnitude to the actual movement. Thus the advantage of small fault-crossing networks
is that they may yield more accurate displacement data; and because of their small size, they may be resurveyed more
quickly and frequently, providing thereby, more nearly continuous sampling of movement (Table 11.2).
In the appraisal of fault movements, we wish to know where the movement occurs, which way the fault blocks move
relative to each other, how much the offset is, and when it happens. Geologic rates of crustal movement and empirical
determination of historic rates of fault displacements from progressive offset of cultural features show that a precision of at
least 1 part per million is required to document ongoing tectonic movements in near-field geodetic work (NRC Panel on
Recent Crustal Movements, 1981). That means reproducible resolution of at least 1 mm is generally necessary. At these
high levels of precision, the question of bench-mark stability (Karcz et al., 1976; Savage et al., 1979b; Sylvester, 1983,
1984) also clouds interpretations of tectonic movements, because any small shift of a point that is assumed to be fixed or
stable will yield systematic changes in other points that are not necessarily real.
All near-field geodetic arrays must be resurveyed periodically to establish bench mark and background and secular
noise. Soviet scientists have found that earth background noise may be very unstable for a variety of known and unknown
reasons; therefore, many repeated surveys are needed to characterize background noise (Nersesov, 1984). Out of several
bench-mark stations, only a few may be good and reliable, but which ones can only be determined by observing them. Both
the Soviet and Chinese experiences show that networks of instruments, especially a wide range of observations, together
with good communication among participating scientists, are absolutely essential if earthquakes are ever to be predicted
(Mei, 1984; Nersesov, 1984).
FIGURE 11.3 Alignment array across Nadeau branch of San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, California. E and W are wing
stations, IP is the instrument point for the theodolite.
Horizontal Movements
Alignment Arrays Perhaps the simplest and cheapest measurement technique for horizontal movements is to establish a
line of nails in street pavement across a fault (Figure 11.2) and to measure their deflection over time relative to one or
several arbitrarily fixed points (Rogers and Nason, 1971). If fault slip is discovered, then more expensive and rigorous
techniques may be employed for more complete documentation of the spatial and temporal character of the movement.
Typically nail lines, or “nail files” as they have come to be called (Louie et al., 1985), contain from 10 to 50 nails in a line
as long as 100 m established perpendicular to the fault strike. The position of each nail can be measured to within 1 mm
with precision calipers relative to a straight line of sight provided by a theodolite.
Alignment arrays are also measured by triangulation. Using a theodolite, angles are turned from reference targets in
directions parallel to the fault to nails driven into a line of utility poles, fences, or trees with a precision of 1 mm (Keller et
al., 1978; Aytun, 1980; Louie et al., 1985). These kinds of arrays range in length from 100 to 500 m, are nearly
perpendicular to the fault, and contain at least three points on each side of the fault (Figure 11.3). Their chief disadvantage
is that their substandard bench marks will inevitably yield substandard results and thus limit their eventual utility for both
coseismic and long-term changes.
Alignment arrays established by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for more rigorous and precise determination of
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creep involve triangulation with a theodolite to specially designed targets placed above class B rod
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marks (Floyd, 1978) and yield a precision of 0.5 mm (Burford and Harsh, 1980). The USGS arrays were established in
1967–1974 along the creeping segment of the San Andreas Fault in central California to define the width of the creep zone
more clearly as well as the variability of creep along strike. The arrays have about 15 bench marks in a line from 30 to 220 m
long across the strike of the fault.
FIGURE 11.4 Doubly braced quadrilateral across the San Andreas Fault at Pallett Creek near Palmdale, California.
Trilateration The position of bench marks in closed arrays across faults (Figure 11.4) may be precisely determined by
triangulation (e.g., Meade, 1971; Lensen and Otway, 1971; Henneberg, 1978, 1983) or trilateration. The former is tedious
and time-consuming and still requires that a length be directly measured with high precision if displacements are to be
resolved. More commonly, an array consisting of four bench marks—a quadrilateral—is established across a fault
(Figure 11.4), and the lengths of each side and both diagonals are measured with an Invar tape or an electronic distance
meter (EDM) with which a precision of 1 ppm is routinely achieved. Line lengths for EDM arrays range from 50 to 3000
m, depending on the topography and
FIGURE 11.5 Locations of University of California, Santa Barbara, leveling arrays in central and southern California relative
to major faults.
Key to Figure 11.5: Locations of UCSB Level Lines
(1) San Juan Bautista (8) SNORT (14) Grapevine (20) San Fernando (26) Anza
(2) McGee Creek (9) Airfield (15) Mesa Valley Farm (21) Una Lake (27) Pinyon Flat
(3) Fish Lake Valley (10) Duravan Ranch (16) JM Quarry (22) Llano (28) Painted Canyon
(4) Triangle Spring (11) Wallace Creek (17) Santa Barbara (23) Big Rock Springs (29) Arroyo Seco
(5) Sewage Plant (12) Camp Dix (18) Jameson Lake (24) Pallett Creek (30) Santa Anita Canyon
(6) Artist's Drive (13) Caballo (19) Santa Cruz Island (25) Dalton Canyon (31) Parkfield
(7) Shorty's Well (32) Koehn Lake
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the apparent width of the fault zone. The dimensions of taped quadrilaterals are smaller, from 1 to 50 m.
Horizontal displacements of bench marks are measured by resurveys of the array, and single bench-mark
displacement-rate vectors and their standard deviations are computed from a variation of coordinates adjustment using all
line-length change-rates and their standard deviations (Lisowski and Prescott, 1981).
The small-aperature trilateration studies complement creepmeter, strainmeter, alignment array, and broad-scale
geodolite measurements (e.g., Savage et al., 1979a) to show that (1) the creep rate in the central segment of the San
Andreas Fault varies stepwise from less than 1 mm/yr at each end of the fault segment to 30 mm/ yr at the center (Lisowski
and Prescott, 1981); (2) the width of the main zone of slip is generally less than 70 m (Burford and Harsh, 1980); (3)
episodic creep occurs in the Salton Trough at rates ranging from 1 to 10 mm/yr (Keller et al., 1978; Louie et al., 1985),
although the infrequency of surveys there does not clearly show whether the fault slip is dynamically triggered or is truly
tectonic creep (Goulty et al., 1978); and (4) creep has been observed outside of California only on the North Anatolian
Fault in eastern Turkey, where dextral creep of 10 mm/yr has taken place during the 10 years of geodetic monitoring
(Aytun, 1980).
Vertical Movements
Precise leveling is the most common method used to detect and document vertical crustal movements over periods of
days to decades, because when compared with currently available alternatives, leveling is more stable over longer periods
of time and long distances and is less costly and more accurate over short and moderate distances (Brown and Reilinger,
1980). If repeated sufficiently frequently, precise leveling may aid other geophysical techniques for earthquake prediction,
as has been demonstrated in China (Tanaka, 1978; Mei, 1984; Zhu et al., 1984). Preseismic fault offsets of 1- to 4-mm
amplitude and from 50 to 200 km from the epicentral area were observed in the year prior to each of four M= 7+
earthquakes in China (Zhang and Fu, 1981).
Tryggvason (1968) was one of the first to establish and frequently resurvey short leveling arrays of closely spaced
bench marks to study small vertical fault movements in detail, although the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey established
lines of closely spaced bench marks across the southern San Andreas Fault in the 1930s. A few lines, with only three or
four bench marks in 1 or 2 km, were also established across the Atwater and Wairau Faults in New Zealand in 1930
(Mackie, 1971).
Because so few investigators are involved in this kind of work, it is instructive to outline the procedures and
techniques employed in our studies of near-field tectonic strain. Following Tryggvason's (1968) example and since 1970,
my students and I have established a variety of fault-crossing leveling arrays across strike-slip, normal, reverse, and thrust
faults throughout southern and central California (Figure 11.5) to document in time and space the vertical movements that
occur near different kinds of faults and to understand tectonic processes leading to, and following, fault rupture. For
example, our straight-line array at San Juan Bautista (Figure 11.6) measures vertical separation across the San Andreas
Fault (Figure 11.7), where horizontal creep is monitored by creepmeters (Sylvester et al., 1980); our W-shaped array in the
Garlock area northeast of the Mojave Desert (Figure 11.8) monitors nontectonic fault slip caused by groundwater
withdrawal (Sylvester, 1982; Holzer, 1984) and in 9 years shows a constant height change across the fault of 35 mm/yr
(Figure 11.9); straight lines across the Punchbowl Fault at Pallett Creek and across the Pleito Fault at Grapevine
(Figure 11.10) measure movement across reverse and thrust faults (Figure 11.11); an irregular-
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FIGURE 11.6 Site map for level line across San Andreas Fault at San Juan Bautista. SJN1 and XSJ2 are locations of the U.S.
Geological Survey creepmeters for measurement of horizontal movement.
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NEAR- FIELD TECTONIC GEODESY 170
shaped array at Anza (Figure 11.12) detects minor vertical movements across a narrow, well-defined rift zone of the San
Jacinto Fault (Figure 11.13); a closed quadrilateral across the San Andreas Fault at Wallace Creek (Figure 11.14) provides
us two measurements of vertical offset across the fault as well as of the tilt of the fault blocks; lines in Death Valley and
Long Valley are across youthful, normal faults; and the quadrilateral at the Pinyon Flat Geophysical Observatory
(Figure 11.15) provides geodetic control for arrays of long-base fluid tiltmeters and other strain-measurement devices
(Sylvester and Jackson, 1982; Sylvester, 1984).
FIGURE 11.7 Height change data across San Andreas
Fault at San Juan Bautista, 1975–1983. Bench mark 7328
is arbitrarily held fixed.
FIGURE 11.8 Site map of W-shaped leveling array across
subsidence fault in Fremont Valley, California.
We choose our surveying sites where geomorphic evidence shows that significant vertical movements have occurred
in the recent geologic past, and we rely on other investigators to provide medium-range precursory information that
identifies faults that may be in the preparation stages for a major earthquake. Then we establish arrays in the target area and
resurvey them as frequently as possible and practical.
Like other investigators (e.g., Sharp and Lienkaemper, 1982), our procedure is to repeat precise leveling surveys of
arrays of permanent bench marks established across active and potentially active faults. Comparison of surveys reveals
height changes that then may be related spatially to surface faults and temporally to occurrences of earthquakes.
All our leveling arrays are relatively short—line lengths range from 200 to 2600 m and contain as many as 70 bench
marks. Geometry of arrays is generally dictated by the terrain and property access and includes L-, Z-, W-, and closed,
quadrilateral-shaped arrays (Sylvester, 1982). Some of the straight-line segments across faults are also aligned with a
theodolite to document horizontal movement. Many of the fault-crossing arrays are quadrilateral-shaped to determine the
tilt of each fault block independently by analyzing L-shaped subsets of bench marks (Figure 11.14).
Following Tryggvason (1968) and our accumulated
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experience, most turning points in our level are permanent bench marks no more than 40 m apart throughout the line, and
permanently marked instrument points are exactly midway between bench marks. The relatively short, balanced sights
minimize systematic errors from refraction and collimation, respectively, and assure that the rod images are sufficiently
large to be read accurately. Our leveling is always double-run using a shaded precision automatic level and strut-supported
Invar leveling rods. The same rod is always placed on the same bench mark in each successive survey, and our rods are
annually calibrated every 10 cm along their entire length.
FIGURE 11.9 Height change data for subsidence fault at Duravan Range, Mojave Desert. Bench mark RRT is arbitrarily held
constant.
Perhaps because only a few investigators have been leveling in the near field for a short time in limited parts of the
world, few reports of significant results are available in contrast to those from broad-scale leveling. A review of vertical
preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic slip associated with U.S. earthquakes is given by Reilinger and Brown (1981).
Vertical afterslip was indicated but not authenticated in two New Zealand earthquakes—the Murchison earthquake of 1929
(Henderson, 1937) and the Napier earthquake of 1931 (Henderson, 1933). Otherwise vertical afterslip has been documented
in only four earthquakes. Sylvester and Pollard (1975) found that afterslip amounted to less than 1 percent of the coseismic
vertical separation in the year following the 1971 San Fernando (M=6.4) earthquake; Sharp and Lienkaemper (1982) found
that 14-cm afterslip, nearly equal to the coseismic slip of 16 cm, occurred in the 10 weeks following the 1979 Imperial
Valley (M=6.5) earthquake; afterslip following the Alaskan (M=8.3) earthquake of 1964 reached 0.55 m over 10 years
(Brown et al., 1977; Prescott and Lisowski, 1977); Lensen and Suggate (1968) measured 12 mm of vertical afterslip in 2
months across the Inangahua Fault (New Zealand) after about 1 m of vertical separation in the 1968 Inangahua (M=7)
earthquake. Near-field leveling revealed 54 µrad of crustal tilt 6 months before the Imperial Valley earthquake (Sharp and
Lienkaemper, 1982), and significant tilt has also occurred before some Chinese earthquakes (Mei, 1984; Zhu et al., 1984).
Previous reports of regional tilt before Japanese earthquakes have been attributed to refraction errors in the leveling (Mogi,
1984).
Vertical movement across normal faults of the Asal-Ghoubbet rift, Dijoubti, East Africa, is regarded as aseismic creep
by Ruegg et al. (1984), but vertical creep has not been observed elsewhere in spite of specific searches for it, especially in
California (Sylvester, 1982).
CRUSTAL TILT
Tilt of the Earth's surface has been observed prior to earthquakes by broad-scale leveling (e.g., Bendefy,
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1958, 1965) and by near-field leveling (Sharp and Lienkaemper, 1982; Mei, 1984; Zhu et al., 1984). Broad-scale leveling
has also demonstrated recent influx of magma into the crust in the Yellowstone area (Pelton and Smith, 1982); beneath
Long Valley caldera in eastern California (Savage and Clark, 1982); beneath Mount Etna (Murray and Guest, 1982); and in
the rift zone of northern Iceland (Björnsson et al., 1979). Magmatic inflation of volcanoes has been geodetically monitored
for many years at Kilauea and Mauna Loa Volcanoes on Hawaii (Kinoshita et al., 1974; Decker et al., 1983) and more
recently at Mount St. Helens (Chadwick et al., 1983).
FIGURE 11.10 Site map of level line across Pleito thrust fault near townsite of Grapevine, California.
One of the small-scale, geodetic methods for monitoring fairly large tilt is spirit-level optical tilting (Kinoshita et al.,
1974) or dry-tilt as it is popularly termed. The dry-tilt method determines tilt of a plane defined by three or more bench
marks by measuring height differences among the bench marks between two separate surveys (Sylvester, 1978; Yamashita,
1981). Both in our work and in Hawaii a shaded precision level is erected at the center of an array of at least three
permanent bench marks on each of which three precise Invar leveling rods are erected simultaneously (Figure 11.16). We
take care to choose sites for dry tilt that are reasonably flat; that have radial symmetry; and that are not near oil and water
wells, landslides, or recently imposed construction loads such as bridges, buildings, and land fills. In our experience, the
noisiest data are obtained from tilt sites on ridge crests and forested areas on bedrock, whereas data showing least noise are
obtained from sites on wide open flats underlain by relatively thick deposits of alluvium.
In Hawaii the dry-tilt measurements complement those of borehole tiltmeters, and short-base (3 m) and long-base (50
m) water-tube tiltmeters. With superior equipment in good adjustment, with careful attention to detail, and with rigorous
systematic measurement procedure, a resolution of from 2 to 3 µrad has been achieved in Hawaii as shown in comparative
tests with the 50-m water-tube tiltmeter. In general, however, resolution of tilt with three point arrays ranges from 5 to 10
µrad (Isacks et al., 1978; Björnsson et al., 1979; Savage et al., 1979b; Decker et al., 1983; Otway et al., 1984). Therefore,
the dry-tilt method is best suited for monitoring large and fairly rapid tilts, from tens to hundreds of microradians per day
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which may be expected to accompany magmatic inflation of volcanoes (Dzurisin et al., 1982a,b; 1983; Fiske and Shepard,
1982; Chadwick et al., 1983). For more precise determination of tectonic tilt, long L- and T-shaped and closed arrays of
bench marks having apertures of from 500 to 1000 m $
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are necessary (Savage et al., 1979b). With such figures it is possible to achieve resolution approaching 0.5 µrad (Sylvester
and Jackson, 1982).
FIGURE 11.11 Height change data cross the Pleito thrust fault, 1980–1983. Bench mark 1 is arbitrarily held fixed.
PROBLEMS
Although there is a fairly voluminous literature on the origin of creep and related minor fault movements, systematic
near-field geodetic measurements of these movements have proceeded only about two decades—now only beginning to be a
significant length of time. Thus it is imperative that this time base of data be lengthened to obtain empirical data to answer
and refine earlier answers to the following questions.
FIGURE 11.12 Site map of irregular leveling array across San Jacinto Fault near Anza, California.
Creep
(1) Why, with but the exception of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey (Aytun, 1980), is creep restricted to the
central and southern segments of the San Andreas Fault? Is it because the fault is relatively straight and
parallel to the lithospheric plate motion, that in its central segment it juxtaposes relatively weak, serpentine-
bearing rocks as several authors have maintained?
(2) Why is vertical creep so uncommon? Is it simply because the search has not been sufficiently broad in scope
and duration? Or are there more fundamental tectonic reasons?
(3) How does creep relate to the earthquake mechanism? Is it a safety valve that periodically releases stress, thus
precluding great earthquakes as many authors believe? Or is creep a form of long-term, preseismic slip for a
truly great earthquake?
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FIGURE 11.13 Height changes of bench marks across San Jacinto Fault near Anza, California, 1981–1983. Bench mark 1 is
arbitrarily held fixed.
Preseismic Slip
Leveling evidence for vertical preseismic slip is generally sparse and ambiguous (Reilinger and Brown, 1981), but
some fundamental questions arise.
(1) Does preseismic slip occur only on faults that are-also characterized by creep?
(2) Does discrete vertical preseismic slip occur, or are preseismic movements typified only by bending, warping,
or tilt?
(3) What is the temporal relation of onset and duration of creep to the impending main earthquake?
Afterslip
(1) Is afterslip truly aseismic, or is it caused incrementally by aftershocks? Continuously recording creepmeters
may study this question, but the full range of the movement zone generally needs to be covered geodetically.
(2) Is significant afterslip restricted to strike-slip earthquakes? Afterslip is nearly equal to coseismic slip in strike-
slip earthquakes, but less than 5 percent of coseismic movement in normal and reverse fault earthquakes. Why?
(3) Just what is the mechanism for afterslip? Some authors (e.g., Rundle and Jackson, 1977; Wahr and Wyss,
1980) maintain that it is a viscoelastic relaxation phenomenon, others regard afterslip as a quasi-static
relaxation of stress changes (Matsu'ura and Iwasaki, 1983), while still others (e.g., Burford, 1972) regard
afterslip as time-delayed propagation from bedrock offset through overlying cover rocks. The latter view is
questioned (Sylvester and Pollard, 1975; Bucknam et al., 1978), but more observations and measurements are
clearly needed.
Dynamically Triggered Slip
(1) Does dynamically triggered slip represent release of a fraction of stored elastic strain energy along a given
fault, or is it just a manifestation of jiggling of two fault blocks caused by shaking? A related question is how
can quite small slips (1 to 30 mm) occur over such long (22 km) fault segments (Fuis, 1982; Sieh, 1982)?
(2) Why isn't dynamically triggered slip more common and widespread? Perhaps it is, but because of general
preoccupation with the main fault rupture, seldom are careful investigations made of nearby faults. Certainly
attention must be paid to surrounding faults following moderate and large earthquakes just to increase the base
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of data from the two clear examples at hand.
(3) Does dynamically triggered slip occur along segments of faults destined to be the loci of earthquakes in the
near future? Thus, is dynamically triggered slip a
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Carizzo Plain, California.
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FIGURE 11.14 Site map of closed leveling array across the San Andreas Fault near Wallace Creek,
175
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form of precursory slip as suggested by Sieh (1982) from a limited base of observations? To date, dynamically triggered
slip has been documented for only the Salton Trough of southern California. Is its identification there a
function of good exposure, many postseismic investigations, and instrumental coverage? Or is it a function of
the tectonics? Here, too, the data base must be increased considerably.
FIGURE 11.15 Site map of closed leveling array at Pinyon Flat Geophysical Observatory near Palm Springs, California. From
Sylvester (1984) with permission of the American Geophysical Union.
CONCLUSIONS
Near-field tectonic geodesy has been instrumental in documentation of minor fault movements that follow earthquakes
together with those that are aseismic and coseismic. Although continuously recording instruments such as creepmeters,
strainmeters, and tiltmeters provide important time-history data, geodetic informa
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NEAR- FIELD TECTONIC GEODESY 177
tion is required to know where to establish instruments in the first place, to provide a spatial range of observations
intermediate between broad-range geodesy and the instruments, and to maintain a monitoring capability over periods of
time far longer than are feasible or economic for continuous instrumental coverage.
Owing to the high degree of precision required for near-field measurements, careful attention must be paid to the kind
and method of emplacement of bench marks. They must be made to have a half-life of at least 50 yr and should have
secular movements of no more than about 0.25 mm.
In most cases, investigations seem to have required about 10 yr from the time of establishment of a given geodetic
array to first publication of significant results. Such a length of time is probably necessary to quantify the noise—including
bench-mark motions, survey errors, and Earth noise in the particular arrays, methods, and part of the world. Thus near-field
geodetic studies are necessarily, or at least typically, long term, and agencies and institutions that provide initial support
must realize the nature of the long-term commitment here to investigate a geologic phenomenon on a human time scale. It
cannot be guaranteed that the Earth will cooperate and yield significant results in the course of a grant or contract period or
soon enough to provide grist for a series of publications that will assist in promotion for a young assistant professor.
The Earth moves, often slowly and inexorably. To study these movements carefully requires time, patience, and not a
little luck. To understand these movements requires long-time series of data—more than exist today.
FIGURE 11.16 Diagrammatic representation of dry-tilt array.
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NEAR- FIELD TECTONIC GEODESY 180
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 181
12
Morphologic Dating and Modeling Degradation of Fault Scarps
DAVID B.NASH
University of Cincinnati
ABSTRACT
The pattern of degradation observed on some scarps formed by normal, range-front faulting of alluvial fan surfaces may be
accurately modeled, and, when properly calibrated, these models provide a means for determining the ages of some scarps
(morphologic dating). Two different degradation patterns are observed: some scarps recline, becoming more rounded with
time, whereas others retreat with little or no decrease in gradient. Scarps that recline are generally covered with soil or loosened
debris and are termed transport-limited because more loosened debris is produced than the transport processes are capable of
removing. Retreating scarps are generally stripped bare of debris and are termed loosening-limited because debris is carried
away as rapidly as it is loosened from the surface. These two different modes of degradation require two fundamentally
different models.
Morphologic dating matches the observed morphology of a degraded scarp with that predicted by the appropriate calibrated
model. The accuracy of the age calculated for a fault scarp is dependent on the accuracy of the calibration and the accuracy of
the initial morphology assumed for the scarp prior to degradation (potentially complex for fault scarps). Despite some
limitations, morphologic dating provides a means for dating fault scarps and other scarps resulting from active tectonism.
INTRODUCTION
Most geologists have their first, and generally last, exposure to the subject of hillslope degradation in a discussion of
landscape evolution during their introductory physical geology course. In that discussion, it is questioned whether
hillslopes slowly progress through a series of evolutionary forms as they degrade as suggested by Davis (1899) or fairly
rapidly reach an equilibrium form dependent on underlying structure as suggested by Hack (1960). It is further questioned,
if hillslopes do in fact evolve slowly with time, what is that pattern of evolution? Do hillslopes retreat retaining a steep
gradient as suggested by Bryan (1922) and King (1953) or progressively decrease in gradient, becoming more rounded as
suggested by Davis (1899) and, to some extent, by Penck (1953)? Unfortunately, these diametrically opposed theories of
hillslope degradation and the often acrimonious debates over the relative merits of each have convinced many geologists
that little is known about the degradation of hillslopes.
Within the past 15 years, great progress has been made in our understanding of hillslopes. Much of this progress
resulted from careful study of the degradation
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 182
processes active on hillslopes summarized in several excellent books, including those by Brunsden (1971), Carson and
Kirkby (1972), and Young (1972), as well as by the rediscovery and popularization by Schumm and Mosley (1973) of
several classic but generally forgotten works. Enough is now known about these processes that analytical modeling of the
degradation of hillslopes has become possible. Two of these models have been tested and found to be sufficiently accurate
for some hillslopes to be dated (morphologic dating) by matching their observed profile with that predicted by the properly
calibrated model.
The hillslopes that will be modeled here are assumed to be closed systems, isolated from the surrounding landscape.
Although this assumption is not valid for all hillslopes, it is appropriate for some. Scarps bounded by horizontal or gently
inclined bases and crests, such as fault scarps produced by normal faulting, of alluvial fans, abandoned fluvial cutbanks
(terrace scarps), and abandoned wave-cut bluffs, on which debris derived from the scarp face accumulates at its base (i.e.,
debris is not removed by fluvial or wave undercutting) and where degradation is by soil creep or by the raveling of sand and
gravel may be modeled as a closed system.
OBSERVED PATTERNS OF HILLSLOPE DEGRADATION
The degradation of most natural, vegetated hillslopes is extremely slow and difficult to observe directly, and the
pattern of degradation observed on more rapidly eroding, man-made slopes, such as slag heaps and tailing piles, is not
necessarily the same as on natural hillslopes. The degradation of natural hillslopes, however, may be observed indirectly by
comparing the morphology of a series of different aged hillslopes assumed to have had the same initial morphology. This
approach was probably first used by Savigear (1952), who studied differences in morphology among a series of coastal
cliffs isolated from wave undercutting by the progressive lateral growth of a protective beach.
In similar studies, Welch (1970) documented the change in scarp morphology with time from observations of active
and abandoned wave-cut bluffs along the north shore of Lake Erie, and Brunsden and Kesel (1973) presented differences
between active and abandoned cut-banks along the Mississippi River. Nash (1980b) compared the morphology of wave-cut
bluffs abandoned 10,500 yr before present (BP) and 4000 yr BP along the shore of Lake Michigan with that of nearby,
actively forming wave-cut bluffs underlain by the same material (Figure 12.1). A pattern of degradation similar to that
observed by Savigear (1952), Welch (1970), and Brunsden and Kesel (1973) is observed on the Lake Michigan bluffs—
modern bluffs have a nearly horizontal crest and base separated from a straight, steeply inclined midsection by a sharp
crestal convexity and basal concavity (Figure 12.2a). The midsection gradient of the 4000-yr-old bluff has decreased
slightly from that of the modern bluff, and the crestal convexity and basal concavity of the profile have become more
rounded. This pattern of degradation is more pronounced on the 10,500-yr-old bluffs. These hillslopes appear to have
reclined with age, but did they also retreat?
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FIGURE 12.1 Profiles of modern, wave-cut bluffs similar to bluffs abandoned 4000 and 10,500 yr BP along the shores of Lake
Michigan. All bluffs are underlain by a similar sandy morainal material.
Some fault scarps near the town of West Yellowstone in southwest Montana apparently did not retreat. In 1959 the
Yellowstone earthquake occurred close to the town of West Yellowstone, Montana, forming numerous scarps in the
overlying obsidian sand and gravel deposit. These scarps have a morphology similar to the
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 183
modern wave-cut bluffs along the shores of Lake Michigan—straight midsections separated from gently inclined crests and
bases by sharp crestal convexities and basal concavities (Figure 12.2a). Many of the 1959 scarps are superimposed on much
older scarps produced by prehistoric earthquakes. These older scarps have a more rounded crestal convexity and basal
concavity and lower midsection gradient than the modern scarps, indicating a pattern of degradation similar to that of the
abandoned wave-cut bluffs along the shores of Lake Michigan (Figure 12.1). The 1959 scarps are generally located near the
center of the midsection of the prehistoric scarp (Figure 12.3), suggesting that little retreat of the older scarp has occurred.
FIGURE 12.2 a, Profile of a scarp with a simple initial morphology: a straight base and crest inclined at the same angle, ș, and a
straight midsection at the angle of repose of the underlying debris, Į, the initial excess midsection slope angle is defined as the
angle by which the initial midsection exceeds ș. The scarp offset, H, is the perpendicular distance separating the parallel crest
and base, b, With time, the curvature of the crestal convexity and basal concavity decrease on transport-limited hillslopes. The
degraded excess midsection slope angle, ȕ, is defined as the angle by which the degraded midsection exceeds ș. The initial
angle of the crest and base, ș, and H may be determined by analysis of the profile beyond the limits of the basal concavity and
crestal convexity. From Nash (1984), reprinted from the Bulletin of the Geological Society of America, with permission.
Scarp recline and rounding without significant retreat is fundamentally different from the pattern of scarp degradation
reported by King (1953), Hamblin (1976), and Anderson (1977). King (1953) observed that the maximum gradient on
hillslopes underlain by the same material is frequently the same on large, and presumably young, as on small, and
presumably old, hillslopes and suggested that this demonstrates that once a stable angle has been reached, hillslopes no
longer recline but retreat parallel to themselves. He further observed that the Drakensberg escarpment in Natal, South
Africa, has “retreated back over 100 miles since the late Mesozoic and is still wall-like and over 4000 feet high.” Hamblin
(1976) and Anderson (1977) found evidence for scarp retreat in their investigations of a flight of faceted spurs above the
Wasatch Fault near Salt Lake City, Utah. They suggested that the accordance in the elevations of these facets (Figure 12.4)
indicates that the facets are remnants of once continuous scarps formed by past movements of the Wasatch Fault and
concluded that the scarps have retreated significantly [Hamblin (1976) suggested that modest recline of the scarp face also
occurred].
On a much smaller scale, a similar pattern of nearly parallel retreat may be observed on rapidly degrading, natural and
man-made scarps underlain by cohesionless sands and gravels. Oversteepened walls of borrow pits in the obsidian sand and
gravel deposit overlying the West Yellowstone area are observed to retreat back at a high angle, progressively burying their
base with loosened debris (Figure 12.5). Similarly, scarps produced by normal faulting of the same material during the 1959
earthquake were observed by Wallace (1980) to have retreated, progressively burying their base with an accumulation of
debris loosened from the scarp face. Following the usage of Wallace (1980), these retreating, oversteepened scarp faces
underlain by cohesionless material will be referred to as free faces.
It is no wonder then that a controversy exists as to whether degrading hillslopes retreat or recline; there can be little
doubt that both patterns of degradation may be observed. Why do some hillslopes recline with progressive rounding of
their crestal convexity and basal concavity while others are apparently able to retreat considerable distances with little
change in the morphology of their profiles?
LOOSENING-LIMITED AND TRANSPORT-LIMITED HILLSLOPES
In his classic study of the geology of the Henry Mountains, Gilbert (1877) offered an explanation for why the summit
of Mount Ellen is gently rounded while the summit of nearby Mount Holmes is precipitously steep and jagged despite the
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fact each is underlain by similar trachyte dikes. He observed that the summit of Mount Ellen is sufficiently high to be
vegetated while the 2500
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 184
feet lower summit of Mount Holmes is too hot and dry to support continuous vegetation and thus has bare rock slopes. He
further observed:
…vegetation favors the disintegration of rocks and retards the transportation of disintegrated material. Where vegetation is
profuse there is always an excess of material awaiting transportation, and the limit to the rate of erosion comes to be merely the
limit to the rate of transportation. And since the diversity of rock texture, such as hardness and softness, affect only the rate of
disintegration (weathering and corraision) and not rate of transportation, these diversities do not affect the rate of erosion in
regions of profuse vegetation and do not produce corresponding diversities of form.
On the other hand, where vegetation is scant or absent, transportation and corraision are favored while weathering is retarded.
There is no accumulation of disintegrated material. The rate of erosion is limited by the rate of weathering, and that varies with
the diversity of rock texture. The soft are eaten away faster than the hard; and the structure is embodied in the topographic
forms.
This basic dichotomy between bare and debris mantled hillslopes has been largely overlooked by subsequent hillslope
researchers until it was noted by Schumm (1956) in his study of the degradation of badland slopes. Schumm observed that
creep-dominated slopes, those with a continuous cover of loosened debris, recline and become more rounded with time,
whereas wash-dominated hillslopes, those on which wash processes sweep the surface bare of loosened debris, retreat with
time. More recently Carson and Kirkby (1972) termed these two fundamentally different hillslope types transport-limited
(hillslopes on which more loosened debris is available for removal than the transport processes are capable of removing)
and weathering-limited (hillslopes on which the transport processes remove all debris as rapidly as it is loosened). Debris
need not necessarily be loosened from the hillslope surface by weathering; sand and gravel are detached from the surface
of the free face (Figure 12.5) by evaporation of pore water and by raveling. Because these are not weathering processes, the
term loosening-limited will be used here instead of weathering-limited for hillslopes on which debris is removed as rapidly
as it is loosened from the slope surface.
Both loosening-limited and transport-limited hillslopes can occur in all climates; transport-limited hillslopes,
however, are more common on unconsolidated or weakly consolidated materials in humid-temperate climates with
continuous vegetative cover, whereas loosening-limited hillslopes are more common on
FIGURE 12.3 The scarps formed during the 1959 West Yellowstone earthquake (indicated by the arrow) are generally found
superimposed on the center of much older scarps indicating that little or no retreat of the older scarps has occurred (photo by
J.R.Stacey, U.S. Geological Survey).
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 185
weathering-resistant rocks and in arid to semiarid regions with insufficient moisture to support a continuous vegetative
cover. As will be discussed, loosening-limited hillslopes degrade by retreat, whereas transport-limited hillslopes degrade by
recline and rounding. It is interesting to note that the advocates of parallel retreat, such as Bryan (1922) and King (1953),
worked primarily in arid and semiarid regions, whereas the most notable proponent of hillslope recline, Davis (1899),
worked primarily in temperate-humid regions.
FIGURE 12.4 Flights of faceted spurs along the western front of the Wasatch Range. These facets are thought by Hamblin
(1976) and Anderson (1977) to have formed by retreat of scarps produced by multiple movements of the Wasatch Fault (photo
courtesy of W.K.Hamblin, Brigham Young University).
MODELING THE DEGRADATION OF TRANSPORT-LIMITED HILLSLOPES
The following model for describing the degradation of transport-limited hillslopes is not new; it has been proposed by
many researchers including Culling (1960), Souchez (1964), Hirano (1968, 1975), and Pollack (1968). The model,
sometimes termed the diffusion model of hillslope degradation, is based on the assumption that the volumetric rate at which
debris moves downslope at a particular point on a hillslope profile is proportional to the gradient of the profile at that point.
Although several transport mechanisms have been proposed for such debris transport, the most probable is soil creep
(Culling 1963, 1965; Nash, 1980a).
Debris Transport by Creep
The slow, steady downslope creep of material on transport-limited hillslopes is thought by many to result from
alternate expansion and contraction within the de
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 186
bris mantle. This expansion and contraction may be the result of heating and cooling (Davison, 1888) or hydration and
dehydration (Fleming, 1972) or freezing and thawing of pore water. If expansion occurs by heaving perpendicular to the
slope surface and contraction by vertical dropping of the surface, a net downslope displacement of the debris cover results,
which is proportional to the sine of the slope angle of the surface (Figure 12.6a). If the amount of expansion and contraction
of the debris mantle is uniform throughout its thickness, the upward and downward displacement of debris decreases
linearly with depth, and, therefore, the downslope movement of debris resulting from a single expansion and contraction
episode will also decrease linearly with depth (Figure 12.6b). The depth to which an expansion and contraction cycle
penetrates into the debris mantle, however, is highly variable. A light rain or light freeze may penetrate a few centimeters
beneath the surface, but it will take the rarer, heavier rain or severe freeze to penetrate to greater depths. Thus we would
expect the actual displacement profile within the debris mantle to reflect both the linear decrease in displacement with depth
resulting from a single expansion-
FIGURE 12.5 Walls of borrow pit in the obsidian sand and FIGURE 12.6 a, Downslope creep caused by expansion of
gravel deposit overlying the West Yellowstone Basin, the debris mantle perpendicular to the surface followed by
Montana. The loosening-limited free face of the wall is vertical contraction. Alternate heating and cooling,
observed to retreat, progressively burying its base with freezing and thawing, or wetting and drying are thought to
debris. From Nash (1984), reprinted from the Bulletin of produce such creep, b, For a single episode of expansion
the Geological Society of America, with permission. and contraction, the displacement of soil downslope
decreases linearly with depth (no displacement will occur
beyond the depth of penetration of the expansion-
contraction cycle). c, The frequency with which an
expansion-contraction episode penetrates into the surface
decreases rapidly with depth. When the linear downslope
displacement of debris resulting from a single expansion-
contraction episode is combined with the decreasing
frequency of occurrence of penetration with depth, it
produces a concave-downslope displacement profile after
many episodes. This displacement profile has been
observed in several field studies.
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 187
contraction episode and the decreasing frequency of penetration at greater depths to produce a concave-downslope
displacement profile (Figure 12.6c). This prediction is verified by several field studies of creep displacement summarized
by Carson and Kirkby (1972).
If the depth of penetration is uniform over the hillslope surface during a single expansion-contraction event then the
volumetric, downslope flux of debris, q, per unit length of contour at a point on a transport-limited hillslope will be
proportional to the sine of the slope angle (ȥ) at that point, or
(12.1)
where c is the coefficient of proportionality. Debris will seldom remain on slopes steeper than 30°, so little error is
introduced by assuming that q at a point on a transport-limited hillslope is proportional to the tangent of the local slope
angle, or
(12.2)
in two spatial dimensions, where x is the horizontal and y is the vertical coordinate of the point. Field studies by
Schumm (1967) and others verify that the observed creep rate may be described by Eq. (12.2).
Downslope Conservation of the Debris Flux
A hillslope profile may be thought of as a series of linear segments each receiving debris at its upslope end and
discharging debris at its downslope end. If more debris enters a segment than leaves, conservation of mass requires that the
debris within the segment must increase, resulting in an increase in the elevation of the segment (Figure 12.7a).
Conversely, if more debris leaves than enters a segment, its elevation must decrease (Figure 12.7b). Thus the downslope
change in the debris flux, q, determines the change in elevation at a point on a hillslope. Debris will accumulate and the
elevation will increase where q decreases downslope, such as at basal concavities. Debris will be depleted and the elevation
will decrease where q increases downslope. In spatial dimension, x, the change in elevation, y, with time, t, on a hillslope
profile is therefore equal to the downslope divergence of the debris flux, or
(12.3)
This equation predicts the pattern of degradation shown in Figure 12.8; the gradient of the midsection decreases and
the curvatures of the basal concavity and crestal convexity decrease (become more rounded) with time.
Equation (12.3) is not appropriate for loosening-limited slopes because the transportational processes are capable of
sweeping the slope surface completely clear of debris, nor is it appropriate for all transport-limited hillslopes. Although Eq.
(12.2) is probably appropriate for describing raindrop-induced, surficial creep on bare sand (e.g., Savat and DePloey,
1968), it is probably not appropriate for wash erosion on transport-limited hillslopes (such erosion is rarely effective on
continuously vegetated hillslopes underlain by cohesionless sands and gravels).
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FIGURE 12.7 Conservation of debris on a transport-limited hillslope, a, If the debris flux entering a hillslope segment, qu,
exceeds the flux leaving q1, there will be a net accumulation of debris within the segment and its elevation will increase with
time. b, If ql exceeds qu, there will be a net depletion of debris within the segment and its elevation will decrease with time.
Nash (1980b, 1984) demonstrated that Eq. (12.3) fits the pattern of degradation observed on abandoned wave-cut
bluffs along the shore of Lake Michigan (Figure 12.1) and on fluvial terrace scarps along the Madison River near West
Yellowstone (Figure 12.9). Hanks et al. (1984) fit the pattern of degradation observed on Lake Bonneville scarps and a
fault scarps near Drum Mountain, Utah, abandoned sea cliffs along the Califor
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 188
nia coast near Santa Cruz, and fault scarps near the Fish Spring Range, the Oquirrh Mountains, and the Sheeprock
Mountains, Utah, with the pattern of degradation predicted by Eq. (12.3). Hanks and Wallace (in press) demonstrate that
the degradation pattern observed on shoreline scarps formed by Lake Lahontan in western Nevada may be closely modeled
with Eq. (12.3). The model also predicts that the degradation of a transport-limited scarp is not accompanied by retreat,
which would explain why the scarps formed during the 1959 West Yellowstone earthquake are generally located near the
center of much older scarps formed by previous offsets of the same fault (Figure 12.3). The model also successfully
predicts the inverse relationship between scarp height and the slope angle documented by Bucknam and Anderson (1979) in a
study of a degraded fault scarp near Drum Mountain, Utah (Nash, 1980b; Colman and Watson, 1983; Hanks et al., 1984;
Hanks and Wallace, in press).
FIGURE 12.8 Model for the degradation of a transport-limited hillslope. The crestal convexity and basal concavity become
more rounded and the midsection reclines.
MODELING THE DEGRADATION OF LOOSENING-LIMITED HILLSLOPES
Loosening of Debris from a Bare Scarp Face
Numerous researchers believe that a uniform thickness of material is loosened from the surface of a uniformly inclined
scarp face underlain by homogeneous material during a given unit of time. Penck (1953) suggested the following:
…On a slope of uniform gradient and equal exposure, a profile of reduction is formed which shows everywhere the same
development and the same thickness. In the same time that the uppermost horizon of that profile has taken to acquire the
mobility necessary for migration, a rock layer of the same thickness throughout has become reduced. At the close of a further
equal interval of time, a further layer of rock, again of the same thickness and of equal thickness at every part of the slope,
passes over into the reduced form.
Removal of a uniform thickness of loosened debris from the scarp face results in parallel retreat with no rounding of
the crestal convexity or basal concavity. The pattern of degradation, however, is dependent on whether the loosened debris
accumulates at the base of the scarp or is removed.
Accumulation of a Basal Debris Apron
As long as debris is swept clear of the base of a scarp, the scarp retreats parallel to itself. This process may be observed
on active fluvial cut-banks and wave-cut bluffs. When undercutting ceases and debris is no longer removed, an apron of
debris inclined at a characteristic angle of repose will progressively grow, ultimately burying the retreating scarp face.
The first analytical model of parallel retreat with accumulation of a basal debris apron was formulated by Fisher
(1866) to describe the degradation of coastal chalk cliffs. Fisher's model assumed a vertical scarp face and a horizontal
crest and base. Lehmann (1933) modified the model to permit the treatment of nonvertical scarp faces and to allow for
changes in volume of the debris as it moves from the scarp face to the debris apron. The model was further modified by
Nash (1981a) to permit the treatment of scarps with nonhorizontal crests and bases. The pattern of degradation predicted by
this model is shown in Figure 12.10. Note that the model predicts the development of an uneroded, parabolic core of debris
beneath the debris apron. Immediately adjacent to the base of the retreating scarp face, the surface of the uneroded core of
material is thinly buried and nearly parallel to the overlying surface of the debris apron.
The predicted pattern of degradation of the scarp face is nearly identical to that documented by Wallace (1980) for
scarps formed during the 1959 Yellowstone earthquake (Figure 12.11). It can also be used to explain the origin of the flight
of faceted spurs along along the Wasatch Front above the Wasatch Fault noted by Hamblin (1976) and Anderson (1977)
(Figures 12.4 and 12.12) and to provide a possible explanation for the origin of pediment surfaces. Pediments are bare or
thinly veneered bedrock surfaces frequently found at the bases of loosening-limited ranges (Cooke and Warren, 1973). In
numerous areas where the retreating face has been completely or extensively removed and the alluvial cover has been
completely stripped away, the pediment
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 189
surface is observed to have a parabolic shape. In fact, Fisher (1866) proposed the model to explain the origin of what he
terms “parabolic noses” of chalk at the base of the chalk cliffs along the English coast. He suggested that the noses formed
beneath a debris apron that was able to accumulate at the base of the retreating cliff during a prehistoric period of lower sea
level. The subsequent rise of the sea to its present level removed the basal debris apron, exposing the uneroded chalk nose.
FIGURE 12.9 Comparison of the profiles measured on terrace scarps above the Madison river near West Yellowstone,
Montana (solid lines), with the profiles predicted by the degradation model for transport-limited hillslopes (crosses). From
Nash (1984), reprinted from the Bulletin of the Geological Society of America, with permission.
USING THE HILLSLOPE DEGRADATION MODELS TO DATE SIMPLE FAULT SCARPS
Both the transport-limited and the weathering-limited hillslope models offer a means for morphologic dating of some
prehistoric fault scarps. Before this can be done, the initial morphology of a scarp must be accurately estimated and the
models must be calibrated. Neither of these tasks is simple, nor are they even possi
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 190
ble in many cases. Although dating can be performed on several different types of scarp underlain by different kinds of
materials, the following discussion of fault scarp dating is limited primarily to scarps produced by normal faulting of
relatively cohesionless alluvium such as those produced by range-front faulting of alluvial fans in the Basin and Range
region of the western United States. The initial morphology of such scarps can be quite complex. Frequently the fault
surface will splay close to the ground surface to produce an assemblage of smaller scarps rather than producing a single
scarp. Repeated faulting often superimposes younger scarps on much older ones. The initial morphology of these complex
scarps is difficult or impossible to determine with an accuracy sufficient to permit morphologic dating. Nash (1984)
suggested that independent geologic evidence (e.g., from trenching) be used to determine whether a scarp had a complex
initial morphology and, if so, to reject it for morphologic dating. The analysis below is for simple scarps. Recently,
however, Hanks et al. (1984) have proposed a method for dating more complex scarps produced by repeated fault
movements.
FIGURE 12.10 Model for retreating, loosening-limited scarp. The retreating free face is progressively buried by a basal apron
of debris shed from its surface.
FIGURE 12.11 Comparison of the profile of a scarp produced by the 1959 West Yellowstone earthquake with its profile
observed 20 years later. The free face of the retreating scarp is nearly buried (compare with Figure 12.10). (Photo courtesy of
R.E.Wallace, U.S. Geological Survey.)
FIGURE 12.12 If a basal debris apron is not allowed to accumulate, the free face can retreat great distances. Subsequent
movements of the fault may produce a new scarp before the older scarp is eliminated (compare with Figure 12.4).
Initial Morphology of Fault Scarps
It is assumed here that the initial morphology consists of a single scarp that offsets a straight crest and base inclined at
the prefaulting slope of the fan surface (Figure 12.2a). Scarps formed by normal faulting of cohesionless sands and gravels
result from active Rankine failure producing failure planes inclined at 45+ĭ/2 to the horizontal. ĭ, the angle of internal
friction, generally varies from 30° to 35° so initial scarp angles range from 60° to 62°. Theoretically, for a purely
cohesionless material, a slope cannot exceed ĭ (Carson, 1977), therefore, the initial fault scarp should rapidly recline to ĭ. A
rapid recline to ĭ, however, is frequently not observed on normal fault scarps underlain by “cohesionless” sands and
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gravels, probably because of a weak, ephemeral cohesion among grains resulting from pore water in capillary tension and
from minute amounts of cementing at contact points between grains. Instead, a loosening-limited free face is produced that
retreats, progressively burying its base with debris. The time necessary for the retreating free face to be completely buried,
producing a continuous debris apron that at ĭ, varies with
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 191
the height of the scarp, the type of material, and the climate. Wallace (1980) found that the free face of most of the fault
scarps produced by the 1959 earthquake in West Yellowstone are now nearly buried. On the other hand, the free face of the
scarp produced by faulting during the 1915 Pleasant Valley, Nevada, earthquake is still clearly visible, and Wallace (1977)
estimated that 300 yr will be required for it to be completely buried. The time necessary for the complete burial of the
retreating free face may be from seconds to centuries but is probably most often on the order of decades.
FIGURE 12.13 Scarps produced by normal faulting of alluvial fans degrade in two stages. In the first, the loosening-limited
free face retreats. After the free face has been buried, the second, transport-limited stage of degradation begins.
Degradation thus proceeds in two stages. During the first stage, the retreating free face may be described with the
loosening-limited model. The second stage begins when the free face has been completely buried by the debris apron.
Subsequent degradation of this apron may be described with the transport-limited model (Figure 12.13). Although the scarp
retreats during the first stage, the center of the initial free face and the center of the debris apron that it produces are nearly
the same, so that future movements of the fault will nearly bisect the debris apron (Figures 12.10 and 12.3).
Morphologic Dating of Loosening-Limited Scarps
Dating of fault scarps in the initial loosening-limited stage of degradation is simple in principle but difficult in
practice: the distance that the free face has retreated from the fault is divided by the rate of scarp retreat. The accuracy of
the calculated age is dependent on the accuracy of the retreat rate used, which varies not only from scarp to scarp but also
along a given scarp face. The average retreat rate of the free faces resulting from the 1959 Yellowstone earthquake derived
from data presented by Wallace (1980) is about 7–8 cm/yr, which is intermediate to the values derived from Wallace's
(1977) study of scarps in north central Nevada: a slower, 2 cm/yr for the 1915 Pleasant Valley scarp and a faster 10 cm/yr
for the nearby scarp produced by the 1954 Dixie Valley earthquake. A large variation in the retreat rate along the Pleasant
Valley scarp is quite evident; in some locations the free face is still standing immediately adjacent to a fresh-appearing
basal graben, while nearby it has been completely buried. Retreat rates are probably a function of variations in the cohesion
of the alluvium and of the climate. It is also likely that rate of retreat varies over relatively short periods of time (a great
deal of retreat may occur during a particularly severe storm). Despite these limitations, when the effects that underlying
material and climate have on retreat rates are understood well enough to permit accurate calibration of the loosening-limited
model, it is likely that relatively accurate dates may be derived for some fault scarps in the first, retreating stage of
degradation.
Morphologic Dating of Transport-Limited Scarps
With the burial of the free face by the basal debris apron, the scarp becomes transport-limited and dating must be
based on Eq. (12.3). The first technique proposed for such dating (Nash, 1980a) uses the relationship between scarp height
and rate of degradation to date the Drum Mountain, Utah, fault scarp observed by Bucknam and Anderson (1979). The
method requires that a scarp of known age be located nearby and that both are underlain by the same material and show a
continuous range of heights along their length. These requirements greatly limit the applicability of the technique. More
flexible methods have subsequently been proposed by Nash (1981b), Colman and Watson (1983), and Hanks et al. (1984).
The Nash (1981b) method is presented here, but all techniques based on Eq. (12.3) will yield similar ages for a given scarp.
As it enters the second, rounding stage of degradation, the scarp is assumed to have a straight midsection at the angle
of repose of the underlying debris, ĭ, separating a straight base and crest equally inclined at an angle of ș, the original
slope of the faulted fan surface (Figure 12.2a). The scarp offset, H, is defined as the perpendicular distance separating the
crest, and base and the initial excess midsection slope angle, Į, is defined as the angle by which the midsection slope angle
exceeds ș (so ĭ=Į+ș). As it degrades, the crestal convexity and basal concavity of the scarp become more rounded but ș
may still be observed beyond the extent of this rounding
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 192
and thus H may still be measured from the degraded profile (Figure 12.2b). The midsection of the degraded profile is
defined as the straight inflection segment separating the basal concavity from the crestal convexity. The degraded excess
midsection slope angle, ȕ, is defined as the angle by which the inclination of the degraded midsection exceeds ș.
For hillslopes with horizontal crests and bases (i.e., ș=0, a definite relationship exists among H, c, Į, ȕ, and t, the
elapsed time since the initiation of the second stage of scarp degradation. A single value of tan Į/tan ȕ is the unique result
of a single value of (tc/H2) tan2 Į: (Nash, 1984). This relationship (Figure 12.14) may be used as the basis for morphologic
dating. Although the relationship breaks down for hillslopes with steeply inlined crests and bases (ș>20°), negligible errors
(less than 2 percent in the calculated value of t) result from using the following dating procedure on scarps on which ș<10°
and where Į+ș<35°. According to Figure 12.14, one-quarter as much time is required for a scarp to degrade from Į to ȕ if c
is quadrupled or if H is halved. To date a scarp, H, ȕ+ș, and ș are measured from a profile of the scarp, and Į+ș is found
indirectly by measuring the angle of repose, ĭ, of the underlying debris, tan Į/tan ȕ is calculated and the corresponding
value of (tc/H2) tan2 Į is taken from Figure 12.14. This value of (tc/H2) tan2 Į is multiplied by H2 and divided by tan2 Į to
yield tc. If t is known then c may be calculated. If c has been calculated for a nearby scarp of known age or has been
derived by some other means, t may be calculated. Because the time required for completion of the first, loosening-limited
stage of degradation is relatively short (rarely more than a few centuries), t is generally assumed to be equal to the total age
of the scarp.
The accuracy of t is dependent on the validity of assuming that a scarp had an initial morphology similar to that shown
in Figure 12.2a and on the accuracy of c. Calculated values of c vary widely: 12×10í3 m2/yr for wave-cut bluffs underlain
by sandy morainal material in Michigan (Nash, 1980b); 2×10í3 m2/yr for fluvial terrace scarps underlain by cohesionless
obsidian sand and gravel near West Yellowstone, Montana; to a minimum of (0.9–1.0)×10í3 m2/yr calculated for the Lake
Bonneville scarps by Colman and Watson (1983) and Hanks et al. (1984). [Hanks et al. (1984) also proposed that 1
m2/1000 yr be termed a G.K.G. in recognition of G.K.Gilbert's contribution to the study of hillslopes.] Pierce and Colman
(in press) observe a correlation between scarp aspect and c and also find a disturbing relationship between c and scarp
height. It is likely that c is a function of underlying material, climate, and scarp aspect and thus is highly site specific. The
identical values for c determined by Hanks and Wallace (in press) for the Lake Bonneville and Lake Lahontan shoreline
scarps, however, suggest that a value of c=(1.0–1.1)×10í3 m2/yr may be appropriate for many scarps underlain by alluvium
in the Basin and Range province. Ideally, the value used for c should be derived from a nearby scarp of known age,
underlain by the same material, and having the same aspect as the scarp to be dated. It is assumed that c does not change
with time—questionable given the extent to which Holocene climatic conditions differed from those of the Pleistocene.
Pre-Holocene dates are thus suspect, and it is possible that the moderation of climate during the xerotherm 4000 yr BP may
have been sufficient to have changed c significantly.
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FIGURE 12.14 The relationship among initial excess midsection slope angle,; degraded excess midsection slope angle, ȕ; scarp
offset, H; c; and elapsed time since the start of the second stage of scarp degradation, t. This relationship forms the basis of the
morphologic dating technique used here for dating transport-limited scarps. From Nash (1984), reprinted from the Bulletin of
the Geological Society of America, with permission.
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 193
Given the simple initial scarp morphology shown in Figure 12.2a, Eq. (12.3) predicts that curvature of the crestal
convexity and basal concavity should be identical at any future time. If a significant asymmetry of the crestal convexity and
basal concavity is observed, dating should be attempted with great caution [slope wash processes probably cannot be
modeled with Eq. (12.3) and are likely to produce a profile with a more rounded basal concavity than crestal convexity].
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
Although the validity of the models for loosening-limited and transport-limited hillslopes is fairly well established and
accepted, widespread application of the models for morphologic dating of fault scarps is hampered by the lack of a means
for accurately calibrating either model for a particular site. Both c and the rate of retreat of a free face are probably a
function of factors such as climate, underlying material, and scarp aspect and therefore are highly site specific. Currently,
both parameters must be determined from a nearby scarp having the same aspect and underlain by the same material as the
scarp to be dated (generally such a scarp will not be available). If the effects of climate, material, and aspect on the retreat
rate and c could be determined accurately, however, appropriate values for either parameter could be estimated by
measurement of these factors. To determine these effects, retreat and rounding rates must be found for a large number of
dated transport- and loosening-limited hillslopes in various climates, with a variety of aspects and underlying materials.
The study of initial scarp morphology and rates of retreat of the free face would be helped considerably if a continuous
set of photogrammetric quality stereo images were taken at ground level along each scarp immediately after faulting and at
10-yr intervals thereafter. This set of imagery would also permit future investigators to make measurements of morphologic
parameters not considered by the initial investigators.
CONCLUSIONS
Degradation of scarps formed by normal faulting of alluvial fan surfaces occurs in two stages. In the first, the steep,
loosening-limited free face retreats back, progressively burying itself with a basal apron of debris. The second stage of
degradation begins when the free face is completely buried by debris to yield a midsection uniformly inclined at the angle
of repose of the debris. Degradation of this transport-limited scarp proceeds by progressive rounding of the basal concavity
and crestal convexity and recline of the midsection gradient. Both the parallel retreat of the free face in the first stage and
the rounding of the scarp in the second stage can be described by two simple models. If the initial morphology of the scarp
can be accurately estimated and if the models are properly calibrated, they can be used to date a scarp in either stage of
degradation.
The applicability of morphologic dating is limited by the need to recalibrate the models for each scarp to be dated,
currently only possible by analysis of a nearby similar scarp of known age. With additional investigation, it is likely that the
influence that climate, underlying material, and aspect have on c and on the rate of retreat will be known with sufficient
accuracy that the models can be calibrated directly from measurements of these factors.
Morphologic dating is not applicable to all scarps formed by normal faulting of alluvial fans. Degradation by slope
wash cannot be described with either model, so dating of wash eroded scarps should probably be avoided (such scarps will
often have a more rounded basal concavity than crestal convexity). It is also likely that the pre-Holocene climate was
sufficiently different from the present that c was also different, making pre-Holocene dates suspect. Morphologic dating
should not be applied to fault scarps that cannot be assumed to have had a simple initial morphology comprising an equally
inclined crest and base separated by a straight midsection. Despite these limitations, morphologic dating, when used with
considerable care, should prove itself to be a valuable tool for determining the deformational history of areas of active
tectonism.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
My research in the area of morphologic dating of fault scarps was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey,
Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, under Contract 14–03–0001–19109. Arvid M.Johnson and Thomas C.Hanks are
thanked for their critical reviews of this manuscript. Rebecca Chavlot-Talmon is thanked for her assistance with the
drafting.
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24, 83–101.
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Brunsden, D., and R.H.Kesel (1973). Slope development on a Mississippi River bluff in historic time, J. Geol. 81, 576–597.
Bryan, K. (1922). Erosion and sedimentation in the Papago Country, Arizona, U.S. Geol. Surv. Bull. 730-B, 19–90.
the authoritative version for attribution.
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MORPHOLOGIC DATING AND MODELING DEGRADATION OF FAULT SCARPS 194
Bucknam, R.C., and R.E.Anderson (1979). Estimation of fault-scarp ages from a scarp-height- slope-angle relationship, Geology 7, 11–14.
Carson, M.A. (1977). Angles of repose, angles of shearing resistance and angles of talus slopes, Earth Surface Processes 2, 363–380.
Carson, M.A., and M.J.Kirkby (1972). Hillslope Form and Processes, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 475 pp.
Colman, S.M., and K.Watson (1983). Ages estimated from a diffusion equation model for scarp degradation, Science 221, 263–265.
Cooke, A.V., and A.Warren (1973). Geomorphology in Deserts, University of California Press, Berkeley, 394 pp.
Culling, W.E.H. (1960). Analytical theory of erosion, J. Geol. 68, 336–344.
Culling, W.E.H. (1963). Soil creep and the development of hillside slopes, J. Geol. 71, 127–161.
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Davis, W.M. (1899). The geographical cycle, Geogr. J. 14, 481–504.
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Hack, J.T. (1960). Interpretation of erosional topography in humid regions, Am. J. Sci. 258A, 80–97.
Hamblin, W.K. (1976). Patterns of displacement along the Wasatch Fault, Geology 4, 619–622.
Hanks, T.C., and R.E.Wallace (in press). Morphological analysis of Lake Lahontan shoreline and beachfront fault scarps, Pershing County, Nevada.
Hanks, T.C., R.C.Bucknam, K.R.Lajoie, and R.E.Wallace (1984). Modification of wave-cut and fault- controlled landforms, J. Geophys. Res. 89, 5771–
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19109, 132 pp.
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Schumm, S.A. (1956). The role of creep and rainwash on the retreat of badland slopes, Am. J. Sci. 254, 693–706.
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NOTE: A BASIC language computer program (for an IBM PC) has been developed by the author for the morphologic
dating of transport-limited scarps. Copies of the program are available without cost. Send the author a self-addressed,
stamped envelope for details (Department of Geology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221).
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DATING METHODS 195
13
Dating Methods
KENNETH L.PIERCE
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver
ABSTRACT
Geologic assessment of active tectonism depends on two key measures: the age and the amount of deformation of a given
stratigraphic unit. The amount of deformation can normally be measured with greater accuracy than the age. Adequate age
control is thus a limiting factor in studies of active tectonism.
About 26 dating techniques can be applied to dating deposits and deformation of late Cenozoic age (past few million years).
These techniques can be grouped as numerical, relative dating, and correlation. Numerical techniques are best, but datable
materials are often lacking, and in these cases age estimation must be made using relative-dating or correlation techniques.
Relative-dating techniques are nearly always applicable but are not precise and require calibration. Correlation techniques are
locally useful and depend on recognition of an event whose age is known, such as a volcanic eruption or a paleomagnetic
reversal.
Geologic studies of active tectonism are greatly aided by definition and time calibration of local stratigraphic sequences.
Because all dating techniques may be subject to considerable error, reliability should be assessed by stratigraphic consistency
between results of different dating methods or of the same method. Numerical ages may have large, nonanalytical errors. For
example, radiocarbon dating is one of the most useful techniques in the 0–50-ka range (ka= thousand years old), but
contamination can result in dates as young as 15 ka for deposits that should be isotopically dead (>40–70 ka).
Improvements in our ability to date active tectonism and define its rates will come from continued refinement of established
techniques, such as carbon-14 dating, and development of experimental techniques, of which thermolumineseence seems to
offer special promise. Experimental isotopic-dating techniques such as 10Be, 36Cl, and 26Al also offer potential for dating
faulting and other deformation. However, refinement of relative-dating techniques, such as soil development, rock weathering,
and progressive landform modification are likely, because of their general applicability, to provide much of the needed age
control.
For a given fault or other feature of active tectonism, deformation rates need to be determined over different time spans to
recognize any variations in deformation rate and how attempts at prediction of future deformation may relate to these
variations. If grouping of faulting events has occurred, hazard assessment based on deformation rates depends on the
combination of the pattern of deformation and the time window of observation.
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DATING METHODS 196
INTRODUCTION
Dating is a critical tool in the assessment of active tectonism. The two primary measures of active tectonism are the
age and the amount of deformation of a stratigraphic unit, which together define rates of deformation. Although slip or
other deformation rates may vary through time, such rates are still one of the most useful measures of active tectonism
(Slemmons, 1977).
Dating of active tectonism is commonly accomplished by dating surficial or volcanic deposits. In addition to dating
conventional stratigraphic units, materials such as calcite infillings may be deposited in a fault plane and dating of these
infillings used to determine the history of faulting. With either conventional stratigraphic units or materials infilling a fault
zone, if the material is unbroken its age provides a minimum age for the last faulting; and if it is broken, it provides a
maximum age for the last faulting. Although individual fault offsets obviously occur in jumps, the overall slip rate can be
determined from the amount of offset, especially for multiple events, divided by the geologic time interval involved.
In the past few decades, our ability to date geologically young deformation and associated deposits has improved
greatly. In this time, dozens of dating techniques (Tables 13.1 and 13.2) have been either developed or greatly refined. As
few as 10 yr ago, estimates of the age of Quaternary deposits were commonly in error by severalfold, and it was not
uncommon for age estimates to have been off by a factor of 10. Although we have recently learned much about the ages of
young deposits and deformation, we still have a long way to go, for one of the greatest constraints in our understanding
active tectonism is accurate and reliable dating in order to define rates of past deformation and times of past earthquakes
(Allen, Chapter 9, this volume).
An appreciation of the amount of dating control needed is illustrated in Figure 13.1, which shows one model of fault
activity through time. Predictions based on such a model require multiple dates to determine (1) the slope of the line shown
as “accumulation rate,” (2) the interval between fault movements, and (3) the time since the last movement. To define a
fault history involving multiple events, at least one age is needed to define each event. This kind of model depends on the
assumption of a constant accumulation or slip rate; dating control spanning different time intervals is needed to know if the
assumption of a constant slip rate is warranted.
More than one age determination is required to establish reliable age control. Numerical ages are preferred, but
relative-dating and correlation methods are important because they can provide age control in the absence of numerical
techniques, or they can be used to evaluate the numerical ages, which can be subject to large nonanalytical errors. Surficial
geologic studies and local time-calibrated stratigraphies are vital in the study of active tectonism, both to provide dating
control and to evaluate the reliability of specific age estimates for tectonic events.
FIGURE 13.1 Diagram of the earthquake-generation process of Cluff et al. (1980) showing importance of time (horizontal
scale) in earthquake history and prediction. In order to predict the time of a future earthquake based on this model, note how
much dating control is needed to define holding time, accumulation rate (similar to slip rate), and elapsed time, even for this
example in which accumulation rate is assumed to be constant.
OVERVIEW OF DATING METHODS
About 26 different dating methods can be used in dating active tectonism. Table 13.1 categorizes these methods as
primarily numerical, relative dating, or correlation (Table 13.1). The numerical methods are based on processes that do not
require further calibration. Relative-dating methods are applied to a local sequence of deposits that differ in age but are
similar in other characteristics, such as a sequence of glacial moraines or a flight of alluvial terrace deposits. Relative-dating
methods provide information on the magnitude of age differences between stratigraphic units. If calibrated, relative-dating
methods can be used to estimate numerical ages. This normally requires calibration by numerical methods and an
understanding of the process being measured and its relevant history (e.g., temperature, precipitation). The correlation
the authoritative version for attribution.
methods do not directly yield a numerical age, but if a feature can be correlated with an event whose age is known, such as a
volcanic ash
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DATING METHODS 197
eruption or a paleomagnetic reversal, precise age control can be obtained.
TABLE 13.1 Classification of Methods Applicable to Dating Active Tectonisma
Numerical Methods Relative Dating Correlation Methods
Methods
1. Annual 2. Radiometric 3. Other Radiologic 4. Simple 5. Complex 6. Correlation
Process Processes
1. Historical 4. Carbon-14 8. Uranium trend 11. Amino-acid 15. Soil 21. Stratigraphy
records 5. Uranium 9. Thermoluminescence racemization development 22.
2. Dendrocronology series and electron-spin 12. Obsidian 16. Rock and Tephrochronology
3. Varves 6. Potassium- resonance hydration mineral 23. Paleomagnetism
argon 10. Cosmogenic 13. Tephra weathering 24. Fossils and
7. Fission isotopes other than hydration 17. Progressive artifacts
track carbon-14 (10Be, 36Cl, 14. landform 25. Stable isotopes
26 Al, and others) Lichenometry modification 26. Tektites and
18. Deposition microtektites
rate
19.
Geomorphic
position and
incision rate
20.
Deformation
rate
aAll methods listed are briefly described in Table 13.2. Methods given in italics are discussed in the text.
A dating technique, whether it be primarily a numerical, relative-dating, or correlation method, may be converted to
the other two categories of methods (Table 13.1). For example, the relative-dating methods of amino-acid racemization or
soil development can also serve either as local correlation techniques or, if calibrated by numerical dating, as numerical
techniques.
Table 13.2 briefly summarizes 26 different dating methods noting their general applicability to studies of active
tectonism, the age range of each method and the optimum accuracy within parts of this age range, and the basis of the
method and the key problems in its use. The six columns (Table 13.1) are discussed in the next six sections. Beyond those
given in Table 13.2, the criteria for selecting individual methods for discussion include at least two of the following: (1) the
method is particularly applicable to dating active tectonics, (2) the method provides a good illustration of the six general
categories (columns of Table 13.1), and (3) the method has complexities or problems that merit discussion.
After this manuscript was completed, two books on Quaternary dating methods became available (Mahaney, 1984;
Rutter, 1985). The reader interested in more extensive description and references to the literature may wish to consult these
books.
ANNUAL METHODS
Annual methods (Table 13.1, column 1), generally accurate to the nearest year, provide the most precise dating of
active tectonism. But excepting varve chronology, annual methods span too short a time interval to assess active tectonism,
particularly in the western hemisphere. Only limited use has been made of dendrochronology and varve chronology.
In the western hemisphere, historical records of faulting are restricted to about 200 yr (Bonilla, 1967). Based on the
long historical records of seismicity from China (3000 yr) and Japan and the Middle East (2000 yr), Allen (1975, p. 1041)
concluded that historical seismicity there shows “surprisingly large long-term temporal and spatial variations. The very
short historical record in North America should, therefore, be used with extreme caution in estimating possible future
seismic activity. The geologic history of late Quaternary faulting is the most promising source of statistics on frequency and
location of large shocks.”
RADIOMETRIC METHODS
Because radiometric methods (Table 13.1, column 2) yield accurate numerical ages, samples for such dating are
searched for in geologic studies of active tectonism. In many cases datable materials cannot be found. Additionally,
radiometric methods may be subject to major errors and should be evaluated in their geologic context by other methods
that, although not as precise, will normally be a valid indicator of the general age.
Carbon-14 Dating
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Carbon-14 dating is generally the most precise and applicable numerical method for dating prehistoric faulting.
Indeed, the chronology of the late Quaternary and particularly the Holocene (past 10 ka) is based on this method (for
review, see Grootes, 1983). The analytical uncertainty is generally less than a few percent.
Two applications of carbon-14 dating to active tec
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DATING METHODS
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DATING METHODS
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DATING METHODS 200
tonism illustrate powerful applications of this method. Along the San Andreas Fault 55 km northeast of Los Angeles
at Pallet Creek, about 50 carbon-14 ages date 11 episodes of faulting in the 1700 yr prior to the 1857 historical rupture and
define an average recurrence interval of about 145 yr (Figure 13.2; Sieh, 1984). For the south Boso Peninsula of Japan,
carbon-14 dating defines four stepwise uplifts of land relative to sea level in the last 7000 yr (Figure 13.3). Shimazaki and
Nakata (1980) concluded that the offset history supports a time-predictable recurrence model; that is, the larger the amount
of the coseismic slip, the longer the interval before the next earthquake (Figure 13.3).
Carbon-14 ages may be in error by much more than the analytical uncertainty. Because of the extensive use of
carbon-14 dating in studies of active tectonism, consideration should be given to the following three types of carbon-14
dating problems.
Fluctuations in Atmospheric Carbon-14 Based on carbon-14 dating of tree rings whose absolute age is known,
carbon-14 ages deviate from actual ages by amounts that are significant for some tectonic studies. For example, in the
interval from 5000 to 8000 yr ago, carbon-14 ages are about 500–900 yr too young (Klein et al., 1982). In the late
Holocene, fluctuations in atmospheric carbon-14 introduce significant uncertainty in dating tectonic events (Figure 13.4).
For example, a carbon-14 age of 150+20 ya (years before AD 1950) only defines an age in the interval from 0 to 295
calendar years before AD 1950 (Klein et al., 1982, Table 2).
Contamination with Old Carbon Independent of the age of the sample, the effect of contamination with old carbon is
constant (Figure 13.5, upper left half). Regardless of whether a sample is 1 or 30 ka, incorporation of 10 percent “dead”
carbon will make ages 800 yr too
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DATING METHODS 201
old. Old carbon may contaminate a sample in two ways. First, detrital carbon, such as that from coal of pre-Quaternary age
which contains no carbon-14 or that from humic soil material which may have an age of several thousand years, may be
incorporated in a sample. Second, plants and animals living underwater can incorporate lower activity carbon from CO2 in
the water either because the water is old or because it has bicarbonate from old rocks. For marine mollusks from the North
Atlantic, the age of CO2 in ocean water increases ages by 400 to 750 yr (Mangerud and Gulleksen, 1975).
FIGURE 13.2 Ages of faulting events (letters) on San Andreas Fault at Pallet Creek (from Sieh, 1984). Ages are based on
about 50 carbon-14 dates and detailed trench mapping.
Contamination with Young Carbon Contamination with recent carbon can alter ages greatly. Samples whose ages are
beyond the range of carbon dating (>75 ka) that are contaminated with only half a percent of recent carbon will yield an age
of about 40 ka (Figure 13.5, lower right half). Even the most exacting of analyses can be in error: a carbon-14 enrichment
age of 71 ka (representing only 0.014 percent of the original carbon-14 activity) was thought to date the Salmon Springs
glaciation of northwest Washington State (Stuiver et al., 1978) until associated ash deposits were fission-track dated at 700
and 800 ka (Easterbrook et al., 1981).
Contamination with younger carbon may be responsible for many of the finite carbon-14 ages in the 20- to 70-ka
range. Contamination of carbon samples with recent carbon produces effects that are not generally appreciated
(Figure 13.5). Examination of this nonlinear effect also should provide a caution about assuming that “consistency” in age
results necessarily is an argument for the validity of carbon-14 ages. For example, the consistency of many dates falling in
the 25- to 40-ka range may only reflect contamination of samples older than about 50 ka with the equivalent of 0.5–2
percent of recent carbon (Figure 13.5). Several hundred carbon dates in the 25- to 40-ka range have been obtained from
coastal deposits in the eastern United States. Many researchers (referenced in Bloom, 1983) have concluded that these
samples date a mid-Wisconsin high stand of sea level, in part based on the apparent “consistency” of a large number of
dates in this age range. After thorough analysis of this problem, Bloom (1983, pp. 215–218) concluded that these ages are
invalid. Amino-acid racemization studies on mollusks asssociated with samples yielding caron-14 dates in the 25- to 40-ka
range also indicate that the carbon-14 dates are erroneously young (Belknap, 1984).
Samples may be contaminated by in situ additions of younger carbon. Soil carbonate, mollusks, or corals are
particularly susceptible to addition of young carbon, especially when subject to repeated wetting or drying. Contamination
by microorganisms incorporating young carbon may occur either before or after a sample has been collected. Marine cores
stored for 5 yr were found to be contaminated by enough terrestrial bacteria to account for 5–10 percent contamination with
modern carbon (Geyh et al., 1974). In-place contamination of samples is not well studied, but it may be possible if
microbial activity consumes CO2 from air or from water with a higher carbon-14 activity than the age of the
sample. For example, methanogens participate in terminal stages of the degradation of organic matter, living on and
presumably incorporating carbon dioxide and hydrogen produced by anaerobic bacteria into their tissue (see Maugh, 1977).
Extra care should be taken in order to minimize contamination with recent organic material during sampling and
sample preparation. In addition, samples should be examined for visible contamination, particularly by roots. Removing
modern roots will not, of course, remove contamination caused by older, largely decayed roots. Common sample
pretreatment before carbon-14 dating removes base-soluble fulvic acids and acid-soluble humic acids, leaving a residue
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called
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DATING METHODS 202
humin or humate. Such pretreatment is commonly employed, but it does not remove all forms of contamination by younger
carbon. For example, dating studies by Goh et al. (1977) have obtained ages as young as 17,750±2050 ya on humin from
deposits whose “best” carbon-14 ages are more than 40,600 ya.
FIGURE 13.3 Four stepwise uplifts of the coast of the southern Boso Peninsula, Japan, determined by about 25 carbon-14
dates (from Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980). The open, half-closed, and closed circles indicate samples from above, near, and
below the former sea level, respectively. Lower part of figure shows cumulative uplift versus time; line through corners of
stairstep plot shows that uplift, inferred to be caused by coseismic faulting, conforms to a time-predictable model.
FIGURE 13.4 Carbon-14 age as a function of dendrochronological age for the past 1000 yr (from Stuiver, 1982). Note
deviations from concordance line that have a 100–200-yr period.
Uranium-Series Dating
The 230Th/234U disequilibrium method is the most commonly used dating technique of the many based on the
radioactive decay series of uranium (Table 13.2; Ivanovich and Harmon, 1982). Because uranium is
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DATING METHODS 203
much more soluble than thorium, materials precipitated from solution such as corals, mollusks, calcic soils, carbonate
deposits in caves and fault zones, and fossil bones are greatly enriched in uranium with respect to thorium. This provides a
system in which radioactive growth of 230Th is a function of time until it reaches a steady-state relation with its parent 234U.
The most reliable application of the method is to pure cave carbonate and to samples of corals in which the original
aragonite is unaltered. For the time interval of 50 ka to about 300 ka, age control for deformation of coastal areas is largely
based on uranium-series dating of corals.
FIGURE 13.5 Unequal effects of contamination with recent and dead carbon on carbon-14 ages (from Grootes, 1983). For
contamination with dead carbon (shaded area), effect is a simple ratio. But for samples with true ages older than a few tens of
thousands of years, the apparent age can be dictated by only small amounts of contamination with recent carbon.
For corals and cave deposits, uranium is incorporated in the sample at the time of deposition and, under appropriate
conditions, the sample acts as a closed system with respect to uranium. Dating problems generally result from migration of
uranium after initial deposition or contamination with thorium in detrital material at the time of deposition. Living mollusk
shells or bones contain only about a tenth of the uranium that becomes incorporated after burial. If ages are calculated on
the basis of a closed system, the uranium in the sample should ideally have been introduced in a time interval that is short
relative to the age of the sample, and none of this secondary uranium should have been leached away. If uranium is
incorporated at later times in the history of the sample, the apparent Th/U age is too young. Conversely, if uranium is
leached during the later history of a sample, the apparent Th/U age is too old. Kaufman et al. (1971) concluded that for
samples of known age, 230Th/234U dating of mollusks gave ages within their analytical uncertainty no more than half the
time.
For active tectonism in semiarid and drier areas, 230Th/234U dating of carbonate may date fault movements. Soils may
contain carbonate coats on the undersides of stones that can date faulted alluvial surfaces. Along the Arco fault scarp in
central Idaho, a surface vertically offset about 19 m by faulting has 1-cm-thick carbonate coats that can be subdivided into
outer, middle, and inner parts (Pierce, 1985). Analyses of both the soluble (carbonate) and insoluble (detrital residue)
fractions from these layers yield ages as shown in Figure 13.6
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DATING METHODS 204
(Szabo and Rosholt, 1982). These ages are stratigraphically consistent and indicate a time span of 160 ka for 19 m of offset
and a long-term slip rate of about 1 m/ka.
FIGURE 13.6 Three stratigraphically consistent 230Th/234U ages from a stratified carbonate coat. This plot of age versus
thickness defines an age of about 160 ka for an alluvial fan surface offset about 19 m along the same range-front fault, but 50
km south of the part offset during the 1983 Borah Peak earthquake, central Idaho. 230Th/234U isochron ages from Szabo and
Rosholt (1982, Figure 10.5) are plotted at midpoint of sampled layer. The carbonate coats form on the underside of stones in
the soil on an alluvial fan.
Potassium-Argon Dating
The potassium-argon (K-Ar) method is limited in its applicability to dating active tectonics by its primary use with
igneous rocks and general lack of resolving power for rocks younger than a few tens of thousands of years. Nevertheless,
most of the correlation methods (Table 13.1, column 6) and calibration of many of the relative-dating methods (Table 13.1,
columns 4 and 5) depend on K-Ar dating for their age control. More important to the study of active tectonism, both the
paleomagnetic time scale, which was critical in establishing the theory of plate tectonics, and the relative rates of plate
motions are largely based on K-Ar dating.
Fission-Track Dating
Fission-track dating is generally limited to rhyolitic volcanic rocks older than about 100 ka and is commonly better
than the K-Ar method for dating volcanic ash.
Fission-track dating can also be used in areas of high relief and rapid uplift to estimate long-term rates of uplift.
Because fission tracks in apatite anneal if warmer than about 120°C, fission-track dating of apatite determines the time a
rock has been below this temperature and consequently at relatively shallow depths. If the geothermal gradient is known,
the rate of uplift and erosion of a mountainous area can thereby be determined. Using this method, Naeser et al. (1983)
estimated that the late Cenozoic rate of uplift of the Wasatch Mountains has averaged 0.4 m/ka over the past 10 Ma (million
years).
OTHER RADIOLOGIC METHODS
Other radiologic methods (Table 13.1, column 3) involve radioactive processes but may also depend on other
nonradioactive processes that must be either estimated or accounted for by calibration using other numerical methods.
The rmoluminescence (TL) and Electron-Spin-Resonance (ESR) Dating
Thermoluminescence (TL) dating (Wintle and Huntley, 1982) may be widely applicable to dating active tectonics, but
the method has been used rarely in the United States. Owing to the effects of radiation, many minerals emit light when
progressively heated, and the changing intensity of light emission yields a glow curve. A starting point for buildup of TL
can be the time of crystallization of carbonate in a soil, the growth of a shell, the firing of a ceramic, the eruption of a lava
flow, or the time of burial after exposure to sunlight. The glow curve becomes stronger the greater and longer the radiation
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exposure. The flux of radiation is related to the modern content of uranium, thorium, and potassium. The response of the
dosimeter grains is calibrated by artificial irradiation (alpha, beta, and gamma) and measurement of the induced glow
curves. Several hours of exposure to sunlight “zeros” the TL in grains of quartz and feldspar, which are nearly ubiquitous in
surficial deposits. Thus, many surficial deposits offset by faulting are potentially datable by TL.
Because water adsorbs some of the gamma radiation, the amount of water present over the history of the sample needs
to be measured or estimated and its effect on the in situ sample calculated. Also, radiogenic isotopes
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DATING METHODS 205
are assumed not to have been added to or leached from the sample. Wintle and Huntley (1982) listed criteria for evaluating
TL dates of sediment and discussed problems that merit further research.
TL dating of loesses has yielded reasonable results. Late Pleistocene loess in Germany yielded TL ages that are
stratigraphically consistent and concordant with carbon-14 ages of an associated ash (Wintle and Brunnacker, 1982;
Figure 13.7).
Electron spin resonance (ESR) dating is similar to TL dating in that a mineral acts as a dosimeter for local radiation,
but differs in the feature measured and the method of measurement. ESR dating of corals from marine terraces of Japan
yielded results in good agreement with carbon-14 (2–4 ka) and 230Th/234U (40–>200 ka) dating (Ikeya and Ohmura, 1983).
FIGURE 13.7 Thermoluminescence (TL) dating of loess deposits in West Germany showing that the TL ages are both
stratigraphically consistent and concordant with existing carbon-14 ages on the volcanic ash that was dated elsewhere (redrawn
from Wintle and Brunnacker, 1982).
Uranium-Trend Dating
Uranium-trend dating is an isochron-type method for dating Quaternary sediments and soils (Rosholt, 1980; Szabo and
Rosholt, 1982). Rather than requiring a closed system as do most uranium-series methods, this method depends on a flux of
uranium (mostly 238U) through sediments and the consequent embedding of recoil products 234U and 230Th in the
sediments. The method can be used on almost all sedimentary materials and has produced generally reasonable ages
(Rosholt, 1980). The calibration of the method initially depended on ages determined by other methods, but ages can now
be calculated using the established calibration. The method is expensive, requiring determination of 238U, 234U, 230Th, and
232Th for five or more samples from a given deposit. Although widely applicable, the method has so far experienced limited
use because of its newness, complexity, and cost.
Cosmogenic Isotopes Other Than Carbon-14
Similar to carbon-14, several other radiogenic isotopes are generated by cosmic-ray bombardment and may be useful
in tectonic studies. Dating rationales exist for 32Si, 41Ca, 36Cl, 26Al, 10Be, 129I, and 53Mn, which are analyzed by accelerator
mass spectrometry (half-lives given in Table 13.2).
Beryllium-10 is produced by cosmic-ray bombardment and is carried to the Earth's surface by rain and dust. Pavich et
al. (1984) showed that 10Be is adsorbed onto clays in soils and systematically increases in abundance with soil age for at
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least the first 100 ka of soil development. More research is needed to evaluate this method for dating surface and buried
soils.
RELATIVE-DATING METHODS, SIMPLE PROCESS
These methods (Table 13.1, column 4) do not depend on radiogenic processes but are based on relatively simple
chemical or biological processes whose rates are related to controlling variables such as temperature and chemical
composition or species effects.
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DATING METHODS 206
Obsidian-Hydration Dating
Obsidian hydration has been used to date the last two glaciations in the Rocky Mountain region (Pierce et al., 1976). If
temperature and chemical composition are constant, hydration thickness increases proportional to the square root of time.
Figure 13.8 shows the increase in hydration with time as determined by the hydration thicknesses of two K-Ar-dated
rhyolite flows and carbon-14-dated recessional deposits. The deposits of the next to last, or Bull Lake, glaciation date at
about 140 ka (Pierce et al., 1976). This age for the Bull Lake glaciation is about 5 times older than the age considered
correct 20 yr ago. The importance of the dating at West Yellowstone to studies of active tectonism is that these ages can be
inferred for many deposits throughout the western United States if they can be correlated with those at West Yellowstone
on the basis of criteria such as soil development, morphologic changes, and weathering rinds (see Figure 13.9).
FIGURE 13.8 Obsidian-hydration dating of the Pinedale and Bull Lake Glaciations near West Yellowstone, Montana (from
Pierce et al., 1976). Dashed line shows increase in hydration thickness with age based on hydration thickness measured on
deposits dated by K-Ar or 14C methods. Above histograms, short lines with dots are means and standard deviations of
hydration-thickness measurements, some of which are offset (small arrows) to account for small temperature differences
between localities.
Amino Acid Racemization
Amino acid racemization (and epimerization) has provided important age information for deciphering late Quaternary
deformation along the West Coast of the United States (Lajoie, Chapter 6, this volume). Because racemization rates for a
given species depend on temperature and a kinetic model (Wehmiller, 1982), the method works best if calibrated by
numerical methods. On the California coast, uranium-series dating of corals has provided a few calibration points, but even
with this calibration the amino acid ratios on mollusk samples did not allow distinction between three global sea-level
culminations known from elsewhere to date at about 80, 95, and 125 ka. The problem of distinguishing these three high-sea
stands has been resolved by combined studies using amino acid and uranium-series dating, temperature gradients along the
coast, and paleontological identification of cool (oxygen isotope substages 5a or b) and warm (substage 5e) faunas (Lajoie,
Chapter 6, this volume).
RELATIVE-DATING METHODS, COMPLEX PROCESSES
This group of dating methods includes some of the most widely applicable methods (Table 13.1, column 5).
Numerical ages can be empirically estimated by these methods. Rigorous evaluation of these complex methods would
require modeling of each process and quantification of their relative effects. Nevertheless empirical quantification has been
done, and some age estimates based on these methods (Table 13.1, column 4) may be more reliable than, if not so precise
as, some carbon-14 ages.
Rock and Mineral Weathering
Rock and mineral weathering (Table 13.1, column 5) includes such relative-dating techniques as mineral grain
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etching, seismic velocities in weathered stones, pitting on stone surfaces, and weathering rinds.
Weathering rinds on basaltic and andesitic stones from the B horizons of soils have yielded age information on middle
and late Quaternary deposits at seven different areas in the western United States (Figure 13.9; Colman and Pierce, 1981).
Multiple measurements of rind thicknesses from a given stratigraphic unit are consistent; and, for a succession of deposits,
rind
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DATING METHODS 207
thickness increases with stratigraphic age. Local calibration by numerical dating indicates that rind thicknesses increase
logarithmically with time. Based on a logarithmic increase in rind thickness and on the assumption that deposits with a
certain relative moraine form and degree of soil development correlate with deposits of the Bull Lake glaciation at West
Yellowstone (oxygen-isotope stage 6), ages can be estimated for all the deposits in seven glacial successions in the western
United States. Deposits representing isotope stages 2 and 6 apparently are present in all areas sampled, but moraines
representing stages 3 and 4 were apparently obliterated in many areas by glaciation during stage 2 (Figure 13.9).
FIGURE 13.9 Use of weathering rinds to date and correlate glacial deposits in seven areas in the western United States. As
shown by decreasing curvature of lines, rind thickness is assumed to increase logarithmically with time (from Colman and
Pierce, 1984). Open circles are for deposits independently dated at West Yellowstone and for deposits correlated on basis of
soils and other criteria with 140,000-yr-old deposits at West Yellowstone. Solid circles are for other glacial deposits plotted on
the appropriate curve according to their rind thickness.
Recent developments in the study of desert varnish suggest that systematic changes in varnish properties, such as
decreasing ratios of leachable cations to manganese, occur with time (Dorn, 1983). With local calibration, age estimates on
faults in desert environments may be obtained by this method.
Soil Development
On land, soil development is nearly always pertinent to estimating the age of deformation. Soil development is a
function of climate, parent material, organisms, topography, and time. If all the factors other than time can be held
constant, the effect of time on soil development can be isolated and used to calibrate soil development with time at other
sites.
Recently, Harden (1982) devised the soil “Profile Development Index” based on quantification of standard field
descriptions of soils, including such features as color, clay content, texture, and soil-horizon thickness. Each of 10 or so
soil properties is objectively quantified for each soil horizon on a scale that goes from zero to the maximum observed
development. For the Merced, California, area, an individual soil property such as rubification (reddening and brightening
of soil colors) shows a progressive increase with time from 100 yr to more than 1 m.y. (rubification, Figure 13.10A). The
Profile Development Index (Figure 13.10B) combines several soil properties such as texture, pH, dry consistence, and soil
structure and shows the cumulative effect of the development of many soil properties with time. Dating by this soil Profile
Development Index is improved by using only soil properties that show the highest correlation with age (see Index of four
best properties, Harden and Taylor, 1983).
Although calibration of soil Profile Development Index with age is best restricted to local areas where climate and
parent material are the same, soils from four different areas of the United States appear to show similar Profile
Development Index values with increasing age (Figure 13.10C). The soil Profile Development Index should prove useful in
estimating ages of deformation, for it is based on readily describable field properties, provides an objective numerical basis
for comparison between soils, and eliminates the need for subjective estimates of a soil's “development.”
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DATING METHODS 208
FIGURE 13.10 Increase in soil development with time (from Harden, 1982; Harden and Taylor, 1983). A, one soil property
(rubification) in Merced, California, area. B, Soil Profile Index based on multiple properties in Merced area. C, Soil Profile
Index for climatically different areas. Numbers indicate the number of points that plot in one place.
Some individual soil properties can be measured to estimate age. Such properties include increases in clay (Levine and
Ciolkosz, 1983; Reheis, 1984; Pierce, 1979), secondary carbonate (Machette, 1978), secondary gypsum (Reheis, 1984), and
secondary iron oxides (McFadden, 1982) as well as major-element chemistry (Harden and Taylor, 1983, Reheis, 1984).
These measurements of changes are for an individual process and are like the simple-process, relative-dating methods
(Table 13.1, column 4) but are discussed here because they are a component of soil development.
On the downwind and downthrown side of a fault offsetting a flat, former basin floor of the Rio Grande rift, New
Mexico, fault movements were rapidly followed by deposition of eolian sand. During stable periods, five different calcic
soils developed on these eolian sands and were subsequently buried (Figure 13.11). The time taken to form each soil is
based on the total pedogenic CaCO3 (g/cm2-soil column) divided by the accumulation rate of pedogenic CaCO3 determined
from the 500-ka surface soil on the upthrown side of the fault. The deposit thickness indicates fault offset, whereas the
amount of pedogenic CaCO3 indicates the interval between fault episodes (Figure 13.11). The deformation history inferred
from this information (Figure 13.12) shows an apparently decelerating rate of faulting.
Progressive Landform Modification
Recognition of active tectonism commonly depends on detection of landforms created or modified by deformation,
which is the subject area of tectonic geomorphology. To the trained eye, tectonic landforms tell much about the degree of
tectonic activity, and new quantitative methods are making tectonic geomorphology a more exact science (Keller, Chapter 8,
this volume). The effects may be subtle, such as alterations of river courses and gradients (Schumm, Chapter 5, this
volume) or dramatic, such as bold, mountain-front escarpments (Keller, Chapter 8, this volume).
Geomorphic modification of fault scarps is particularly important to studies of active tectonism (Wallace, 1977; Nash,
Chapter 12, this volume; Keller, Chapter 8, this volume). As with soils, the environmental variables such as lithology,
climate, and vegetation need to be held constant or accounted for otherwise.
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DATING METHODS 209
FIGURE 13.11 Dating of fault-related buried soils based on the accumulation of carbonate in calcic soils near Albuquerque,
New Mexico (from Machette, 1978).
CORRELATION METHODS
If a feature can be correlated with an event of known age, reliable and precise age control can be obtained. Methods
such as those listed in Table 13.1 (column 6) may provide accurate numerical dates or exact correlation between deformed
areas.
Stratigraphy
Stratigraphy, including lithologic characteristics and the sequence of units, is basic to understanding the history of
active tectonism. In surficial geology, the sequence of units may not be based on superposition but on geomorphic relations
such as a sequence of successively lower and younger stream terraces. The origin of deposits also may be important in
understanding the stratigraphy of surficial deposits. If the age of a unit can be determined in one place, that age can be
applied to correlative units or be used to provide age constraints for sequentially younger or older units. Many surficial
geologic units are causally related to the cycles of climatic change that characterize the Quaternary, such as successions of
glacial till, sequences of loess separated by buried soils, and sequences of marine or alluvial terraces.
Numerical dating control is normally obtainable only at scattered localities, and extension of this dating control to sites
of deformation depends on stratigraphic correlation over distances of tens to even hundreds of kilometers. The age of
stratigraphic units in Quaternary geologic successions is the subject of much current research. Such research addresses
many unresolved dating problems, results in new and commonly significantly revised ages, and leads to development of
new strategies for obtaining ages. Studies centered on stratigraphy offer the best method to check a given dating technique
through comparison with other age information from related stratigraphic units. Thus, although laboratory and numerical
analyses are important in obtaining ages, stratigraphic work based on field studies is fundamental
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FIGURE 13.12 Fault offset versus time as determined by accumulation of soil carbonate in buried soils near Albuquerque, New
Mexico (drawn from data in Machette, 1978).
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DATING METHODS 210
in judging the reliability of these ages and relating ages to deformation of stratigraphic units.
Tephrochronology
A volcanic ash can provide a time-parallel marker whose age is as accurate as the best dating either at any of its
occurrences or of the correlative volcanic rocks in its source area. Recognition of a given ash bed should be based on
multiple criteria, especially the petrography and chemistry of the glass and phenocrysts, as well as stratigraphy,
paleomagnetism, paleontology, and radiometric dating (Westgate and Gorton, 1981). Tephrochronology has proved of
great value in dating active tectonics. For example, in southern California deposits containing the 0.7-Ma Bishop ash are
laterally offset about 6.6 km on the San Jacinto Fault (Sharp, 1981), and deposits containing 0.6-, 0.7-, and 1.2-Ma volcanic
ashes are uplifted and tilted along the Ventura Fault (Yeats, Chapter 4, this volume). Tephrochronology is also important in
calibrating other relative-dating and correlation methods, such as soil development, uranium-trend dating, amino-acid
racemization, thermoluminescence dating, and dating of faunal boundaries. These calibrated methods can then, in turn, be
used to date active tectonism.
Improvements in tephrochronology have led to major revisions in Quaternary stratigraphy and age assignments. In the
1960s, the Pearlette ash (known present distribution from California to Iowa) was considered to be of a single age, and the
stratigraphy and paleontology of older Quaternary deposits all the way from the midcontinent to the Rocky Mountains were
founded on the assumption that the Pearlette ash represented one eruption of late Kansan age. Careful petrographic and
chemical study of the Pearlette ash has shown that it actually includes ashes from three different and distinct eruptions from
the Yellowstone area that differ in age by a factor of 3 (Huckleberry Ridge ash, 2 Ma; Mesa Falls ash, 1.2 Ma; and Lava
Creek ash, 0.6 Ma; Izett, 1981).
Pale omagnetism
The orientation of the Earth's magnetic field is recorded by the orientation of magnetic minerals at the time of
deposition of many fine-grained sedimentary deposits. Dating control can be obtained if the paleomagnetic record
determined from a sequence of late Cenozoic sediments or volcanic rocks can be correlated with the established
paleomagnetic polarity time scale (Mankinen and Dalrymple, 1979; see Barendregt, 1981, for a review). For example, the
change from the Matuyama Reversed-Polarity Chron to the present Brunhes Normal-Polarity Chron occurred about 730 ka.
This change provides a global datum for the assessment of long-term tectonic rates and calibration of relative-dating
methods.
The established polarity time scale also dates the age of the ocean floor outward from the ocean-ridge spreading
centers. The rates of movement of crustal plates away from these spreading centers is based on the age and width of the
normal and reversed polarity stripes of the ocean floors.
Within the Brunhes Normal-Polarity Chron, potential age control may be provided excursions or reversed-polarity
subchrons that lasted a few thousand years; about five such events have been suggested. In addition, secular variation in the
geomagnetic field with periodicities of thousands to tens of thousands of years may provide a basis for local correlation and
dating. The record of secular variation is best studied in lacustrine and other environments of continuous fine-grained
sediment deposition. Such sediment dated by paleomagnetic criteria may also record sediment deformation associated with
nearby earthquakes.
Fossils and Artifacts
Fossils have been of limited value in dating young deposits because the amount of Quaternary evolutionary change
has been small. Some organisms, such as the rapidly evolving microtine rodents, do show several changes each million
years and can therefore be of great value in estimating long-term deformation rates. An example of dating active tectonics
comes from east of San Francisco Bay where the Verona Fault offsets Livermore Gravel and is mapped within 60 m of the
General Electric Test Reactor at Vallecitos (Herd, 1977). The age of this faulted gravel was poorly known until it was dated
using small mammal faunas as about 500 ka (C.A.Repenning, U.S. Geological Survey, personnal communication, 1984).
The cyclic climatic changes of the Quaternary Period resulted in cyclic changes in plant and animal populations. Such
plant or animal changes also provide a basis for dating active tectonism. For example, pollen assemblages representing
climate considerably colder than at present may be used to infer a pre-Holocene age (>10 ka).
WHY DATING SPANNING DIFFERENT TIME INTERVALS IS NEEDED
Geologic prediction of future deformation requires enough dating control to understand if and how deformation has
changed through time. For most active tec
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DATING METHODS 211
tonism, we know little about whether strain rates are uniform through time. Even with the simplifying assumption that
strain and long-term slip rates are uniform, a fault scarp with evidence of recent movement can yield dramatically different
predictions: (1) if the slip rate is fast, future movements are likely soon, or (2) if the slip rate is slow, future movements are
unlikely soon.
Spreading rates at oceanic ridges and movement rates of crustal plates appear to be rather constant over the planning
intervals of concern to man and his activities. Consequently, constant strain rates may be appropriate for some major
tectonic features. For many individual faults, however, this assumption is probably not valid. Even for some faults in the
boundary zone between crustal plates, slip rates have changed greatly. On the San Jacinto Fault southeast of Los Angeles,
the slip rate for the past 730 ka has averaged about 9 mm/yr, whereas the rate between 0.4 and 6 ka averaged about one-
fifth that (Table 13.3; Sharp, 1981). These large differences in rate may have resulted from differential movements between
the Pacific and American plates being localized at times on the San Jacinto Fault and at other times on the nearby San
Andreas Fault (Sharp, 1981).
On a fault in the Rio Grande rift near Albuquerque, New Mexico, the rates of deformation have decelerated over the
last 400 ka. Recurrence intervals on this fault are quite long, averaging more than 100 ka (Figure 13.12 ).
For the total Basin and Range province encompassing the 700-km distance between the crests of the Wasatch
Mountains of Utah and the Sierra Nevada of California, the overall rate of extension may be relatively constant. But
Holocene and historical activity in the Basin and Range is spatially clustered in zones. Holocene tectonic events (Ms about 7
or larger) define an eastern and western zone; these zones are separated by a zone about 300-km wide encompassing the
Nevada-Utah border in which no late Quaternary scarps are recognized (Wallace, 1981).
Grouping of events in time may also occur. Some segments of the Wasatch Fault zone have had three or more
Holocene (last 10 ka) offsets and exhibit slip rates during the Holocene of 1.3+0.1 m/ka, yet other sections of the Wasatch
Fault zone have not been active in the Holocene (Schwartz et al., 1983). In addition, based on fission-track annealing ages,
the uplift rate of the Wasatch Mountains for the past 10 Ma has been about one-third the Holocene rate, or about 0.4 m/ka
(Naeser et al., 1983). Work in progress on deposits as old as 250 ka sheds light on the meaning of these rates (Machette,
1984). As dated by calcic-soil development, the slip rate has been on the order of 1 m/ka during the last 5 ka; this rate
appears to have been more than 5 times greater than that over the past 250 ka, suggesting variable slip rates and temporal
grouping of fault offsets (Machette, 1984).
TABLE 13.3 Variable Slip Rates Through Time, San Jacinto Fault, Southern California (from Sharp, 1981)
Time Interval Slip Rate (mm/yr) Change in Slip Rate Through Time
0–400 3.9±1.1 Twofold increase
400–6000 1.7±0.3 Fivefold decrease
0–730,000
Rates of fault slip or other deformation are dependent on both the deformation pattern through time and the time
window of observation. To illustrate this point, Figure 13.13 shows the effect of short, medium, and long time windows on
the slip rates for five patterns of deformation: accelerating, constant, decelerating, episodic-quiescent, and episodic-active.
For convenience, the deformation patterns are shown as systematic, and the deformation rates are arbitrarily set at 1 for the
longest interval. Depending on the time window, deformation rates for each pattern may differ by more than an order of
magnitude. Also, although the long-term rate is arbitrarily set at 1, the short interval has rates that differ by more than 2
orders of magnitude (Figure 13.13B),
Deformation rates determined for differing time intervals will contribute to an understanding of deformation patterns
through time in different tectonic settings. Few fault histories such as those shown by Figures 13.2, 13.3, and 13.12 have
been determined. Deformation histories like that shown by lines for episodic-active and episodic-quiescent (Figure 13.13)
have not been well documented, but, as discussed previously, some evidence suggests that these patterns of deformation
have occurred.
Only by understanding the history of a fault can we better understand what can be expected in the future.
Consequently, the deformation history needs to be defined by multiple dates. The simplifying assumption that tectonic
events such as rates of faulting or rates of uplift are constant may be useful as a first approximation, but this assumption
may be quite misleading in some tectonic environments. Few fault histories are well enough dated to know in what cases
the assumption of constant slip rate is valid and in what cases it is not. By detailed documentation, we can construct
predictive models appropriate to a given tectonic setting. If movements on a given fault are grouped in time, or if faults in
an area alternate in activity, concepts such as constant
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DATING METHODS 212
slip rate or constant recurrence intervals would be, of course, quite misleading.
FIGURE 13.13 A, five patterns of fault offset versus time. B, contrasting slip rates for these five patterns over short, medium,
and long intervals of time. Slip rates are in arbitrary distance/time units, and long-term deformation for all patterns has been
arbitrarily set at 1.
Thus, sufficient dating related to deformation histories is required to understand the character of faulting in different
tectonic settings and thereby to anticipate more intelligently the future deformation over time intervals of concern to man.
Dating of a single fault history without concern for related faults may be examining too small a component, for relatively
constant tectonic activity may be unevenly distributed among a group of faults.
The definition of rates and knowledge of the constancy or variation of these rates through time permit quantitative
ranking of tectonic activity, both for the purposes of scientific understanding and hazard assessment.
DATING METHODS IN FUTURE RESEARCH ON ACTIVE TECTONISM
All the dating methods discussed (Tables 13.1 and 13.2) have importance to studies of active tectonism. In the last
decade, much improvement, refinement, and evaluation of the reliability of these methods have been associated with
studies of active tectonism.
Because experimental methods such as 36Cl and 26Al are numerical and based on radioactive decay, some may
consider such methods the most promising for future advances. But such methods also involve assumptions concerning
nonradiometric processes—one assumes that the isotope measured both accumulated at a known rate and no subsequent
leaching has occurred. These nonradiometric factors are difficult to evaluate rigorously and have similarities with, for
example, the extremely complex process of soil development. For example, 10Be accumulation in soils is influenced by the
clays in the soil, which generally increase in quality and may change mineralogically as the soil develops. The recent
quantification of soil development using the Profile Development Index, as well as analyses of changes in individual soil
components such as soil carbonate or clay, can provide useful but not precise dating control; soil development is nearly
always applicable to the dating of active tectonism.
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DATING METHODS 213
Because of their nearly universal applicability, thermoluminescence and uranium-trend dating of sediments are
promising methods for dating deformation, especially in the 104- to 106-yr range. Compared to this potential, research by
laboratories on these methods and application to active tectonics have been limited.
Carbon-14 dating is the most important method in the range of about 30,000 yr to the present. Research using current
methods of organic chemistry may help to resolve problems with the method and the mechanisms of contamination. Even
before sample collection, microbes may have lived in organic material and incorporated younger carbon from the
surrounding water or air. Important carbon-14 samples might be quantitatively examined for such microbes and other
potential contaminants to estimate the importance of their effect, as was done by Geyh et al. (1974).
Carbon-14 dating using accelerator mass spectrometry permits the dating of milligram-sized samples (Grootes, 1983).
If only small samples are present, this offers obvious advantages, but contamination within, for example, an individual
grain of charcoal, may still be present. Special organic concentrates in combination with accelerator dating may offer real
improvements. For example, a whale bone sample from northern Alaska has been carbon-14 dated, but considerable
question remains about the reliability of the ages (D.L. Carter, USGS, personnal communication, 1984). Because one amino
acid is common in bone but not in the likely contaminating materials, dating of this aminoacid sample may provide a
reliable carbon-14 age. The amino acid concentrate will be small, requiring dating by accelerator mass spectrometry.
In the quest for better dating of active tectonism, the importance of local, time-calibrated stratigraphies should not be
underestimated. Datable materials are commonly not found where a given stratigraphic unit is offset but may be found
elsewhere in that stratigraphic unit. Because the stratigraphy of many Quaternary deposits reflects the cycles of climatic
changes, the ages of faulted or uplifted datums can be inferred if relations between stratigraphic units and climatic cycles
are known. Study of active tectonism and Quaternary stratigraphy should proceed together also because evidence of
tectonism and climatic change is commonly similar. For example, gravel deposition may result from uplift, from climatic
change, or from both uplift and climatic change.
In conclusion, knowledge of active tectonism of a given area progresses as both the amount and age of deformation are
determined. Such knowledge commonly develops by documenting first the age and amount of the most recent movement;
second, the history of the last several movements; third, deformation over contrasting time intervals, including long
intervals; and last, the relation between the dated deformations on associated faults.
Dating control is commonly the limiting factor in understanding active tectonism. Normally, several dating methods
need to be used because of (1) the limited range of a given technique, (2) the presence of appropriate materials, and (3) the
need to check the reliability of any given dating technique by using another method. For studies of a fault segment, for
example, dating control for Holocene activity can be determined by carbon-14, and studies of surface and buried soils can
be made to provide dating control in the 104- to 105-yr range as well as to provide a check on the reasonableness of the
carbon-14 dates. Tables 13.1 and 13.2 list 26 methods. Development or refinement of the methods, particularly those listed
in columns 3 to 6 of Table 13.1, has advanced greatly in the past decade, in part because of the impetus to date active
tectonics. With continued effort, comparable advances are possible in the future.
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SEISMIC HAZARDS: NEW TRENDS IN ANALYSIS USING GEOLOGIC DATA 215
14
Seismic Hazards: New Trends in Analysis Using Geologic Data
DAVID P.SCHWARTZ and KEVIN J.COPPERSMITH*
Woodward-Clyde Consultants
INTRODUCTION
Where? When? How large? These are the most frequently asked questions in evaluating seismic hazards. The ability to
answer these, whether estimating a maximum earthquake, the amount of potential surface displacement on an active fault,
or the probability of exceeding a particular level of ground motion, rests on the ability to recognize and characterize seismic
sources Seismic source characterization is the quantification of the size(s) of earthquakes that a fault can produce and the
distribution of these earthquakes in space and time. As such, source characterization provides the basis for evaluating the
long-term seismic potential at particular sites of interest.
In the late 1960s and early 1970s—largely in response to expansion of nuclear power plant siting and the issuance of a
code of federal regulations by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission referred to as Appendix A, 10CFR100—the need to
characterize the earthquake potential of individual faults for seismic design took on greater importance. Appendix A
established deterministic procedures for assessing the seismic hazard at nuclear power plant sites. Bonilla and Buchanan
(1970), using data from historical surface-faulting earthquakes, developed a set of statistical correlations relating
earthquake magnitude to surface rupture length and to surface displacement. These relationships, which have been refined
and updated (Slemmons, 1977; Bonilla et al., 1984) along with the relationship between fault area and magnitude (Wyss,
1979) and seismic moment and moment magnitude (Hanks and Kanamori, 1979), have served as the basis for selecting
maximum earthquakes in a wide variety of design situations (Schwartz et al., 1984). A related concept that developed at
about the same time and that has also seen widespread use is the idea that a seismic source can produce two types of
earthquakes, a “maximum credible” event or simply a “maximum” earthquake, which is the largest conceivable, and a
“maximum probable” event, which is smaller and more frequent.
It is clear that the correlations between earthquake magnitude and fault parameters can provide reasonable estimates of
the magnitude or surface displacement associated with future earthquakes on a fault when appropriate values for the
parameters are used. However, in applying these correlations to actual siting situations, there is often much uncertainty, and
there has frequently been great controversy, in the selection of the parameters used. Perhaps no better example can be found
than the diversity of conclusions regarding the seismic design parameters for the proposed Auburn Dam on the American
River east of Sacramento, California. Reports on these were issued by the U.S. Bureau
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*David P.Schwartz's present address is U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California; Kevin J.Coppersmith's present address is
Geomatrix Consultants, San Francisco, California.
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of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey, Woodward-Clyde Consultants, and five additional independent consultants to
the Bureau of Reclamation. Estimates of the magnitude of the maximum earthquake on a fault in the vicinity of the dam
ranged from 6.0 to 7.0; the closest approach of the source of the maximum earthquake ranged from less than 0.8 to 8 km;
estimates of the focal depth of the maximum event varied from 5 to 10 km; the amount of the surface displacement
expected during the maximum event varied from 25 cm to 3 m; and estimates of the recurrence interval of the maximum
earthquake ranged from 10,000 to 85,000 yr. Characteristics of expectable faulting within the dam foundation similarly had a
wide range of estimated values: the maximum earthquake was 5.0 to 7.0; displacement per event was less than 2.5 cm to 1
m; and the recurrence interval of an event in the foundation was 260,000 to about 1,000,000 yr. This clearly illustrates the
differences in perception among the various consultants or groups regarding both the physical basis for quantifying a
particular fault parameter and the general understanding of fault behavior.
During the past 10 yr the integration of geologic, seismologic, and geophysical information has led to a much better,
though still far from complete, understanding of the relationships between faults and earthquakes in space and time.
Geologic studies, especially a few highly focused fault-specific studies, have shown that individual past large-magnitude
earthquakes can be recognized in the geologic record and that the timing between events can be measured. Such
investigations of prehistoric earthquakes have developed into a formal discipline called paleoseismology (Wallace, 1981).
Additionally, they have yielded information on fault slip rate, the amount of displacement during individual events, and the
elapsed time since the most recent event. These data can be used in a number of different ways and have led to the
development of new approaches to quantifying seismic hazards. Specifically, they have allowed us to begin to develop
models of fault zone segmentation, which can be used to evaluate both the size and potential location of future earthquakes
on a fault zone, and also earthquake recurrence models, which provide information on the frequency of different size
earthquakes on a fault. At the same time, significant advances have been made in developing earthquake hazard models
that use probabilistic approaches. These are particularly suited to incorporating the uncertainties in seismic source
characterization and our evolving understanding of the earthquake process.
In the present paper we discuss new trends in seismic hazard analysis using geologic data, with special emphasis on
fault-zone segmentation and recurrence models and the way in which they provide a basis for evaluating long-term
earthquake potential.
THE GEOLOGIC DATA BASE
Figure 14.1 is a schematic diagram showing the types of geologic data that can be obtained for individual faults and
the applications of each to the evaluation of seismic hazards.
Slip Rate
Slip rate is the net tectonic displacement on a fault during a measurable period of time. In recent years a great deal of
emphasis has been placed on obtaining sliprate data, and published rates are available for many faults. Slip rates are an
expression of the long term, or average, activity of a fault. In a general way, they can be used as an index to compare the
relative activity of faults. Slip rates are not necessarily a direct expression of earthquake potential. Although faults with
high slip rates generally generate large-magnitude earthquakes, those with low slip rates may do the same, but with longer
periods of time between events. Slip rates reflect the rate of strain energy release on a fault, which can be expressed as
seismic moment. Because of this they are now being used to estimate earthquake recurrence on individual faults, especially
in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses.
FIGURE 14.1 Relationship between geologic data and aspects of seismic hazard evaluation.
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Recurrence Intervals
A recurrence interval is the time period between successive geologically recognizable earthquakes. The excavation of
trenches across faults has proven to be a tremendously successful technique for exposing stratigraphic and structural
evidence of past individual earthquakes in the geologic record. The recognition of geomorphic features such as tectonic
terraces and individual stream offsets, morphometric analysis of fault scarps, and evidence of past liquefaction also provide
direct information on the number of past events for many faults. Where datable material is found, the actual intervals
between successive events can be determined, although in many cases only average recurrence intervals can be estimated.
Data on recurrence intervals can be combined with information on displacement during each event to develop fault-specific
recurrence models.
Elapsed Time
Elapsed time is the amount of time that has passed since the most recent large earthquake on a fault. Many faults have
experienced repeated late Pleistocene and Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes but have not ruptured historically. With
trenching and geomorphic analysis it is possible to identify and estimate the timing of the most recent event. Information on
elapsed time is desirable because, when combined with data on recurrence intervals, it provides the basis for calculating
real-time probabilities of the occurrence of future events on a fault. Differences in the timing of the most recent surface
rupture along the length of a fault zone are also extremely useful in identifying segments that may behave independently.
Displacement per Event
Displacement per event is the amount of coseismic slip that occurs at the surface during an individual earthquake.
Geologic studies are providing this information for past earthquakes and assume that the measured displacement occurred
coseismically, that is, simultaneously with seismic rupture rather than (to any significant extent) during a period of
postseismic adjustment called afterslip. Displacements may be obtained, for example, from measurements of displaced
stratigraphic horizons; the thickness of colluvial wedges observed in trenches, stream offsets, the heights of tectonic
terraces on the upthrown side of faults; and inflections in fault scarp profiles. Displacement reflects the energy associated
with an earthquake; displacement data can be used as input for calculating maximum earthquakes. Because the amount of
coseismic slip generally varies in some systematic way along the length of a surface rupture, care must be taken to evaluate
the degree to which a particular displacement value reflects a minimum, maximum, or average displacement for that event.
Displacement per event data for repeated earthquakes at a point on a fault coupled with the timing of the events provide a
basis for formulating recurrence models.
Fault Geometry
The geometry of a fault is defined by its surface orientation, its dip, and its down-dip extent. For many faults, and
particularly dip-slip faults, changes in the strike of the fault at the surface, especially when coupled with major changes in
lithology, may aid in assessing the location of fault segment boundaries. For strike-slip faults dips are generally vertical,
but for dip-slip faults the dip at depth may vary considerably from the surface dip. Some normal faults may decrease in dip
with depth (become listric), whereas seismogenic thrust or reverse faults often steepen with depth. Seismic reflection data
and seismicity data such as focal mechanisms can provide constraints on dip. The thickness of the seismogenic or brittle
crust in a region determined from the depth distribution of seismicity also places constraints on the down-dip extent of the
part of a fault that exhibits brittle behavior. Fault dip and down-dip seismogenic extent define fault width, which, along
with fault length, are the key parameters for quantifying the fault area that is used to estimate magnitude and seismic
moment.
FAULT-ZONE SEGMENTATION
The Concept
In evaluating the hazard posed by a specific fault or seismic source zone, a major concern is the location of future
events on that zone. It is commonly observed that long fault zones do not rupture along their entire length during a single
earthquake. Therefore, to what degree is the location of rupture random, or are there physical controls in the fault zone that
define the location and extent of rupture and divide the zone into segments? If a zone is segmented, how long can segments
persist as discrete units without overlap of rupture during successive faulting events? Even more importantly, can segments
be recognized on the basis of geologic, seismologic, and geophysical data? Answers to these questions have the potential to
provide new insights into understanding rupture propagation and also to provide a physical basis
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for evaluating where along a fault the next rupture may occur. In addition, the ability to identify potential rupture segments
places constraints on fault rupture length, which is a major geometric parameter used in the estimation of maximum
earthquake magnitude. Inherent in the concept of segmentation is the idea of persistent barriers (Aki, 1979, 1984) that
control rupture propagation.
Examples of Segmentation
Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah The Wasatch is a 370-km-long normal-slip fault that has not had a historical surface-
faulting earthquake. Based on historical surface ruptures on normal faults in the Great Basin, which have ranged in length
from about 35 to 65 km, only a part of the Wasatch Fault zone will be expected to rupture in future earthquakes with
lengths comparable to the historical examples. A segmentation model for the Wasatch Fault zone (Schwartz and
Coppersmith, 1984) is shown on Figure 14.2. Each Wasatch segment is identified using surface fault geometry, fault scarp
morphology, slip rate, timing of the most recent and prior events, gravity data, and geodetic data. From north to south, the
length and orientation of the segments are (1) Collinston segment, 30 km, N20°W; (2) Ogden segment, 70 km, N10°W; (3)
Salt Lake City segment, 35 km, convex east N20°E to N30°W; (4) Provo segment, 55 km, N25°W; (5) Nephi segment, 35
km, N11°E; and (6) Levan segment, 40 km, convex west. The Collinston segment has had no identifiable surface faulting
during the past 13,500 yr. The Ogden segment has experienced multiple displacements, including two within the past 1580
14C yr before present (BP) and with the most recent of these within the past 500 yr. The Salt Lake City and Provo segments
have each had repeated Holocene events; the timing of the most recent event along the Salt Lake City segment is not
known, and the youngest event on the Provo segment appears to have occurred more than 1000 yr ago. Along the Nephi
segment one event has occurred within the past 1100 14C yr BP and possibly as recently as 300 yr ago; two earlier events
occurred on this segment between 4580 and 3640 14C yr BP, and this event occurred less than 1750 14C yr BP.
The proposed segment boundaries may represent structurally complex transition zones ranging from a few to more
than 10 km across. To varying degrees, boundaries selected on the basis of paleoseismic and geomorphic observations are
coincident with changes in the surface trend of the fault zone; major salients in the range front; intersecting east-west or
northeast structural trends observed in the bedrock geology of the Wasatch Range; cross faults and transverse structural
trends interpreted from gravity data (Zoback, 1983); and geodetic changes (Snay et al., 1984). Smith and Bruhn (1984)
showed a strong spatial correlation between segment boundaries and the margins of major thrust faults of Late Jurassic to
Early Tertiary age.
FIGURE 14.2 Segmentation model for the Wasatch Fault zone, Utah. Stippled bands define segment boundaries (modified from
Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984).
Oued Fodda Fault, Algeria An excellent example of fault-zone segmentation is provided by the Oued Fodda Fault,
which produced the El Asnam, Algeria, earthquake (MS=7.3) of October 10, 1980. Yielding et al. (1981) and King and
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Yielding (1984) described this earthquake in terms of fault geometry and rupture propagation and termination. Basic
features of the surface rupture and segmentation are shown in Figure 14.3. Thirty kilometers of coseismic surface faulting
occurred on a northeast trending thrust fault, with secondary normal faulting on the upper plate. This rupture is
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composed of three distinct segments, referred to as A, B, and C. The southern segment contains two smaller segments, A1
and A2. Local and teleseismic data showed that the earthquake occurred at a depth of 10 to 15 km and was a complex
rupture event. The main shock nucleated at the southwest end of segment A and propagated 12 km northeast, where a
second rupture of equal seismic moment occurred and ruptured 12 km further northeast; a smaller third rupture occurred
and propagated along segment C. Geologically, coseismic surface displacement during the 1980 earthquake decreases at
each segment boundary, the strikes of the segments differ, and there is a gap in the main thrust rupture and an en echelon
step between southern and central segments. There are also differences in long-term deformation along each as expressed
by the degree of development of folds on the hanging wall of the thrust. A well-developed anticline with an amplitude of
more than 200 m occurs along segment B, the amplitude of the anticline decreases to less than 100 m along A2, and the
amplitude along A1 is less than 30 m before the anticline dies out toward the south end of segment. The slip distribution
from the 1980 earthquake corresponds closely with the observed differences in the amount of long-term deformation. The
average net slip in 1980 was greatest on segment B, decreased along A2, and decreased again along A1. Aftershocks show
that strike-slip faulting normal to the trend of the surface rupture occurs at the segment boundaries, specifically between A1
and A2, and between A and B. In addition, aftershocks indicate differences in dip between segments, with segment A
having a steeper dip than segment B. Based on these observations, Yielding et al. (1981) and King and Yielding (1984)
concluded that the 1980 displacement pattern was similar to past surface ruptures and that features of fault geometry and
barriers that control the nucleation and propagation of rupture on this fault have persisted through geologic time.
FIGURE 14.3 Map showing coseismic surface rupture from the 1980 El Asnam, Algeria, earthquake and the segmentation
model for the Oued Fodda fault (modified from King and Yielding, 1984). Fault segments A, B, and C are defined by
differences in geomorphic expression, seismicity, coseismic slip, geometry, and long-term rates of deformation.
Lost River Fault Zone, Idaho Surface faulting associated with the October 28, 1983, Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake
(MS=7.3) on the Lost River Fault zone provides another example for examining segmentation. The Lost River Fault is a
normal-slip fault zone that extends for approximately 140 km from Arco to Challis. In 1983 it ruptured along 36 km of its
length (Crone and Machette, 1984). Scott et al. (1985) suggested that the zone may be composed of five or six segments
characterized by different geomorphic expression, structural relief, and timing of most recent displacement. The
segmentation model for the fault zone is shown on Figure 14.4. At the southern end of the 1983 rupture zone, where surface
rupture initiated, a 25-cm-high scarp that formed in 1983 is coincident with a fault scarp of approximately the same height
that defines the pre-1983 event of this location. South of this point the strike of the range front changes sharply, transverse
faults occur in the bedrock of the range, and a set of higher fault scarps
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along which there was no slip in 1983 can be traced southward. These observations suggest that rupture may have initiated
at the same point during the past two events and that a segment boundary occurs at the location of rupture initiation. Crone
and Machette (1984) also suggested that a subsegment boundary may occur in association with a complex zone of bedrock
structure near the northern end of the 1983 surface rupture.
FIGURE 14.4 Segmentation model for the Lost River Fault zone, Idaho (modified from Scott et al., 1985).
San Andreas Fault Zone, California The San Andreas Fault zone also provides an example for evaluating
segmentation, primarily because most of the fault has ruptured in historical time and the amount and extent of slip are
known. Allen (1968) recognized differences in the historical behavior of various parts of the San Andreas Fault zone and
identified four segments (Figure 14.5): a northern segment that was the location of the 1906 rupture, a central segment that
is currently creeping and has been the location of repeated moderate earthquakes during this century, a south-central
segment that was the location of the 1857 rupture, and a southern segment that has not generated large earthquakes during
the historical period.
Recently developed historical and paleoseismicity data, particularly recurrence data developed from trenching studies
and data on displacement per event gathered at different points along the zone (Sieh, 1978, 1984; Bakun and McEvilly,
1984; Hall, 1984; Sieh and Jahns, 1984), indicate that long-term differences in the behavior of individual segments do
occur and that such behavior has remained relatively constant during the past few thousand years. This strongly suggests
that the
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historically defined segments have persisted as distinct units through at least the past several seismic cycles (Schwartz and
Coppersmith, 1984).
FIGURE 14.5 Segmentation model for San Andreas Fault zone, California. The northern segment ruptured in 1906; the central
segment has been the location of repeated moderate earthquakes during this century and is currently creeping; the south-central
segment ruptured in 1857; and the southern segment has not generated large historical earthquakes.
Segmentation and Seismic Hazard Assessment
Fault segmentation occurs on a variety of scales. Segments may represent the cumulative coseismic rupture during a
single event on a long fault and be many tens of kilometers in length, they may represent a part of the rupture associated
with an individual faulting event and be only a few kilometers long, or they may represent local inhomogeneities along a
fault plane and be only a few tens or hundreds of meters in length. Because of their longer lengths, it is the first and second
types of segments that have the most relevance to evaluating seismic hazards and are discussed here.
The identification of segments is not particularly easy, and methods for doing so are in the early stages of
development. As more segmented faults are observed and studied, the physical characteristics and controls of segmentation
will become more readily identifiable and better understood. The best types of data that provide information on
segmentation are those that quantify differences in behavior along the length of a fault during its most recent seismic cycle.
The most definitive is the difference in the timing of the most recent event, followed by differences in the timing of older
events as indicated by paleoseismological recurrence data. Differences in representative slip rates, major changes in the
strike of the fault, the occurrence of significant lithologic changes, and the presence of transverse geologic structures may
spply additional information that can be used to recognize fault segments.
For many faults it appears that surface geology and changes in fault geometry frequently have a one-to-one correlation
with, and are an expression of, rupture processes occurring at seismogenic depths. As a result, geologic, seismologic, and
geophysical data can be used to define fault-specific segmentation models for individual faults. Implicit in segmentation
modeling is the concept that segments can persist as generally discrete units through significant periods of time and,
therefore, that each segment ruptures separately. There are no geologic data that currently preclude the possibility that some
ruptures may cross segment boundaries or that adjacent segments may rupture completely during the same event. However,
in instances where the amount of surface slip during a historical event can be compared with that from previous events at
the same location it is observed often that displacement during successive events has been essentially the same. This
indicates that the slip distribution along the fault, and by inferences the rupture length, has remained relatively constant.
When the amount and rate of short-term (i.e., Holocene) deformation on a fault segment can be compared with the amount
of long-term deformation, there is often a good correspondence. For example, Schwartz and Coppersmith (1984) showed
that Wasatch Fault segments defined on the basis of paleoseismicity data are also reflected by systematic changes in the
elevation of the Wasatch Range. The elevation of the range is highest where late Quaternary slip rates are fastest and
recurrence intervals are shortest, the elevation of the range decreases at segment boundaries and where Holocene scarps die
out, and the elevation of the range is lowest at each end where paleoseismicity data reveal the lowest Holocene slip rates
and the longest recurrence intervals along the fault zone. Along the south-central segment of the San Andreas Fault, the
parts of the segment that had the largest amounts of coseismic slip in 1857 also have the higher long-term slip rates. Aki
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(1979, 1984) suggested that strong, stable barriers to rupture propagation persist through many repeated earthquakes, and
the observations noted above are consistent with this.
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For dip-slip faults these barriers appear to be mainly transverse geologic structures inherited from previous stress regimes
that permit decoupling of adjacent segments. The controls of segmentation on strike-slip faults are not so clear, and,
because these faults propagate laterally, the longevity of individual segments may be shorter than for dip-slip faults.
The independent behavior of fault segments has important implications for seismic hazard evaluation. Segment
identification provides a physical basis for the selection of rupture lengths used in the calculation of maximum
earthquakes. Also, if a fault is segmented, the potential hazard posed by each segment may be different. For example,
variability in segment length will mean variability in the size of the maximum earthquake. Moreover, recognition of
segments and of the differences in the behavior of each will be extremely important for long-range earthquake forecasting.
Information on the difference in the elapsed time and on the recurrence interval for each segment can be used to assess
where along a fault zone the next major event will most likely occur and to calculate the probability of that event. This
provides a basis for selecting parts of a fault zone for more intensive investigation for purposes of short-term earthquake
prediction.
THE CHARACTERISTIC EARTHQUAKE MODEL
Recent fault-specific geologic investigations have shown that many individual faults and fault segments tend to
generate essentially the same size or characteristic earthquakes having a relatively narrow range of magnitudes at or near
the maximum (Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984). The characteristic earthquake model was developed from geologic
observations that, at a point along a fault, the displacement during successive surface-faulting earthquakes remained
essentially constant. This was observed in trenches along the Wasatch Fault zone, where past displacements could be
measured using colluvial deposits derived from erosion of fault scarps. Similar behavior is observed along the south-central
segment of the San Andreas Fault, where location-specific displacement during the 1857 earthquake appears to repeat the
amount of displacement of at least the two previous events. This has been shown to be the case at Wallace Creek (Sieh and
Jahns, 1984) as well as at other sites along the fault segment.
The 1983 Borah Peak, Idaho, Earthquake—A Characteristic Event
Comparisons of observations of the October 28, 1983, Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake (MS=7.3) with paleoseismic
observations provide strong support for the characteristic earthquake model. In 1976 a trench was excavated across a fault
scarp of the Lost River Fault zone that was developed in a Pinedale-age outwash fan (approximately 15,000 yr old) at
Doublespring Pass Road (Figure 14.4). Relationships in this trench suggested that only one major surface faulting event had
occurred since formation of the fan surface and that this event was mid-Holocene (about 6000 yr) in age (Hait and Scott,
1978). As part of the evaluation of the 1983 earthquake, a parallel trench was excavated to re-expose the pre-1983
earthquake relationships and observe the changes that occurred in 1983. A generalized log of the 1984 trench is shown on
Figure 14.6. Within this trench, correlative stratigraphic marker horizons occur on both sides of the main fault and can be
traced across the graben. Because of this, the complete postfan faulting history is exposed, and measurement of pre-1983
displacements can be made and compared with those of 1983 displacements. Mapping and analysis of the stratigraphic and
structural relationships in the trench (Schwartz and Crone, 1985) indicate the following sequence of events:
1. Pre-1983 surface faulting. The fan surface was displaced, and a series of graben and a horst were produced
across a 40-m-wide zone west of the main scarp. The amount of displacement on individual faults formed
during this event is the same across the base of a pedogenic carbonate horizon (Ck) that was near the surface of
the fan and lithologic contacts at the base of the trench (for example, the top of the distinctive silty gravel).
2. Deposition of scarp-derived colluvium. This occurred at and west of the main fault (meters 5 through 10) and
in graben (meters 15 through 19; 24 through 27). Fissure infills also developed (meters 24 and 39). These
deposits are shown by the gray stippled pattern in Figure 14.6.
3. Continued colluviation and the development of an organic A-horizon (slanted pattern) at the pre-1983 ground
surface.
4. 1983 surface faulting. All pre-1983 faults were reactivated, one new trace developed, and the existing colluvial
wedge at the main fault was backtilted to the east.
5. Deposition of scarp-derived colluvium. Postfaulting colluvial deposits (dashed pattern) buried fault scarp free
faces and are prominently developed at the main fault (meter 5) and in a graben (meters 15 and 19).
Important conclusions can be drawn from the new Doublespring Pass trench regarding the number and size of past
events. Only one pre-1983 surface faulting earthquake occurred along this segment of the Lost
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FIGURE 14.6 Generalized log of trench across the Lost River Fault and surface rupture from the 1983, Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake at Doublespring Pass Road (from Schwartz and Crone, 1985). The
trench location is shown on Figure 14.4.
223
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River Fault zone between the time of formation of the surface of the Pinedale-age outwash fan and the 1983 event.
Surface displacement that occurred in 1983 closely mimicked displacement from the previous event in both style and
amount. All individual pre-1983 faults in the trench were reactivated, including small graben and the well-defined horst.
Displacement across the main fault was similar for both events, as was displacement on many of the synthetic and antithetic
faults.
Crone and Machette (1984) showed the distribution of displacement along the length of the 1983 surface rupture.
Although measurements of pre-1983 displacements have not been made systematically, mapping suggests that scarp
heights from 1983 were extremely similar to heights developed during the one pre-1983 event; small 1983 scarps are
associated with small pre-1983 scarps and large 1983 scarps are associated with large pre-1983 scarps. The pattern of
faulting is also remarkably consistent. This is shown not only in the trench but also at other locations along the fault where
other graben and existing en echelon scarps were all reactivated in 1983. Therefore, it appears that point-specific
displacement is essentially the same for the past two events. These observations, coupled with those of segmentation,
support the characteristic earthquake model and imply that the 1983 earthquake was a characteristic event for this segment
of the Lost River Fault zone.
EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE MODELS
An earthquake recurrence model describes the rate or frequency of occurrence of earthquakes of various magnitudes,
up to the maximum, on a fault or in a region. We distinguish this from an earthquake hazard model, which describes the
likelihood or probability of future earthquake occurrence. Statistical studies of the historical seismicity of large regions
have shown that the number of earthquakes is exponentially distributed with earthquake magnitude. The general form of
this recurrence model is the familiar Gutenberg-Richter exponential frequency magnitude relationship
(14.1)
where N(m) is the cumulative number of earthquakes of magnitude m or greater and a and b are constants. This is often
termed a “constant b-value” model. In the general absence of fault-specific seismicity data, it has commonly been assumed
that the exponential recurrence model is as appropriate to individual faults as it is to regions.
Recent geologic studies of late Quaternary faults strongly suggest that the exponential recurrence model is not
appropriate for expressing earthquake recurrence on individual faults. The evaluation of geologic recurrence rests on the
ability to recognize past events, date the interval between events, and evaluate the size of each event. By combining the
recurrence intervals for large-magnitude earthquakes developed from geologic data with the recurrence for smaller-
magnitude events developed from seismicity data, a characteristic earthquake recurrence model is derived that has the
general form shown in Figure 14.7. Notice that the geologic data represented by the box on Figure 14.7 include the
uncertainty in both the recurrence intervals and the magnitude of the paleoseismic events. The model has a distinctive
nonlinear b value that changes from values of about 1.0 in the small-magnitude range to lower values of about 0.2–0.4 in
the moderate- to large-magnitude range. The low b value reflects a recurrence curve anchored at the large-magnitude events
and having relatively fewer moderate-magnitude earthquakes than would be expected for b of about 1.0 (Schwartz and
Coppersmith, 1984). The implications of this are that for an individual fault, estimates of the frequency of occurrence of
large earthquakes based on extrapolation of the frequency of occurrence of small earthquakes may be subject to
considerable error. Likewise, the concept
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FIGURE 14.7 Diagrammatic cumulative frequency-magnitude recurrence relationship for an individual fault or fault segment. A
low b value is required to reconcile the small-magnitude recurrence with geologic recurrence, which is represented by the box
(from Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984).
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SEISMIC HAZARDS: NEW TRENDS IN ANALYSIS USING GEOLOGIC DATA 225
of a “probable” earthquake that is somewhat more likely to occur than the maximum event, and is therefore usually
assumed to be somewhat smaller, is probably erroneous.
Although it may be argued that the nonlinear slope of the recurrence curve in Figure 14.7 results from too short a
sampling period of historical seismicity data, the distinctive nonlinear recurrence relationship suggested by the
characteristic earthquake model has been observed solely from historical seismicity data along fault zones that historically
have had repeated characteristic events. Examples are the Alaskan subduction zone (Utsu, 1971), the Mexican subduction
zone (Singh et al., 1983), Greece (Bath, 1983), Japan (Wesnousky et al., 1983), and Turkey (Bath, 1981). These
observations suggest that the nonlinear slope is real and not merely the result of an inadequate data base. From these data,
Youngs and Coppersmith (1985) developed a recurrence density function for the characteristic earthquake model. This
relationship is essentially a refinement of the generalized characteristic earthquake recurrence model and, unlike the
exponential model, is appropriate for describing fault-specific recurrence.
Slip Rate and Earthquake Recurrence
As discussed, geologic studies have been successful at identifying prehistoric earthquakes in the geologic record and
at estimating recurrence intervals between surface-faulting earthquakes. Unfortunately, these types of paleoseismicity data
are not currently available for most faults. The late Quaternary geologic slip rate, however, can frequently be obtained and
is being used to constrain fault-specific earthquake recurrence relationships for seismic hazard analysis.
Fault slip rates offer the advantage over historical seismicity data of spanning several seismic cycles of large-
magnitude earthquakes on a fault, and they can be used to estimate average earthquake frequency. Their use, however,
requires a number of assumptions, and each of these must be carefully considered when using a slip rate to calculate
recurrence on a specific fault. These assumptions are (1) all slip measured across the fault is seismic slip, unless fault creep
has been recognized; (2) surface measurements of slip rate are representative of slip at seismogenic depths; (3) the slip rate
is an average, which does not allow for short-term fluctuations in rate to be recognized; (4) the slip rate measured at a point
is representative of the fault; and (5) the slip rate is applicable to the future time period of interest.
Two basic approaches have been developed for using geologic slip rates. The first, proposed by Wallace (1970),
allows average earthquake recurrence intervals to be calculated by dividing the slip rate into the displacement per event.
Slemmons (1977) developed this further and arrived at relationships between recurrence intervals, magnitude, and slip rate.
This general approach assumes that only one size earthquake, usually the maximum, occurs and that the displacement per
event used represents this event. However, because earthquakes with magnitudes less than the maximum also occur on the
fault, less of the total slip rate is available for the maximum event. Therefore the maximum event may have a longer
recurrence interval than would be calculated assuming that no other slip events occur.
The second approach is based on the assumption that the slip rate reflects the rate at which strain energy (seismic
moment) accumulates along the fault and is available for release. Seismic moment, M0, is the most physically meaningful
way to describe the size of an earthquake in terms of static fault parameters:
(14.2)
where µ is the rigidity or shear modulus (usually taken to about 3×1011 dyne/cm2), A is the area of fault plane
undergoing slip during the earthquake, and D is the average displacement over the slip surface (Aki, 1966). The seismic
moment rate which is the rate of energy release along a fault, is estimated by (Brune, 1968)
(14.3)
where S is the average slip rate along the fault (in centimeters per year). The seismic moment rate provides an
important link between geologic and seismicity data. For example, seismic moment rates determined from fault slip rates in a
region may be directly compared with seismic moment rates based on seismicity data (Doser and Smith, 1982).
Once a seismic moment rate has been calculated for a fault, it must be partitioned into various magnitude earthquakes
according to an assumed recurrence model. Most commonly, an exponential magnitude distribution is used. Several authors
(Smith, 1976; Campbell, 1977; Anderson, 1979; Molnar, 1979; Papastamatiou, 1980) have developed relationships between
earthquake recurrence and fault or crustal deformation rates, assuming an exponential magnitude distribution.
As discussed, there is increasing evidence that, at least for some faults, a recurrence model based on the characteristic
earthquake may be more appropriate than the exponential model for individual faults and fault segments. Youngs and
Coppersmith (1985) developed a generalized recurrence density function for this model that can be used when fault slip rate
data are available. The choice of either the exponential model or the characteristic earthquake model can have a significant
im
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SEISMIC HAZARDS: NEW TRENDS IN ANALYSIS USING GEOLOGIC DATA 226
pact on the resulting recurrence relationship. Figure 14.8 compares the earthquake recurrence relationship for a single fault
developed using an exponential magnitude distribution (solid curve) with that developed using the characteristic magnitude
distribution (dashed curve). Both relationships were developed using the same maximum magnitude, b value (for the
exponential distribution magnitude range), and fault slip rate. As shown in Figure 14.8, for the same slip rate, use of the
characteristic earthquake model rather than a constant b-value model results in a significant reduction in the rate of
occurrence of moderate-magnitude earthquakes and a modest increase in the rate of the largest events. This difference can
have a significant impact on seismic hazard assessment at a site, depending on whether the moderate-magnitude events or
the large events contribute most to the hazard.
One final consideration that is important in assessing earthquake recurrence from fault slip rate (moment rate) is
sensitivity to the choice of maximum magnitude used in the analysis. As shown in Figure 14.9, for the same slip rate
(constant moment rate), increasing the maximum magnitude from 6 to 8 results in a dramatic decrease in the recurrence rate
for smaller events. This is because the largest earthquakes account for the major part of the total seismic moment rate and
adding a single large earthquake requires the subtraction of many smaller events to maintain the same moment rate.
FIGURE 14.8 Comparison of recurrence relationships
FIGURE 14.9 Effect of variations in maximum magnitude
based on an exponential magnitude distribution (solid
on the recurrence relationship for a fault when fault slip
curve) and a characteristic earthquake distribution (dashed
rate (moment rate) is held constant (from Youngs and
curve). Both relationships assume the same maximum
Coppersmith, 1985).
magnitude, b value, and fault slip rate (from Youngs and
Coppersmith, 1985).
EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODELS
One primary goal of a seismic hazard analysis is to quantify the hazard in such a way that it can be used for
engineering decisions regarding seismic design. For the seismic design of dams, power plants, hospitals, and schools it has
been common practice to use deterministic design criteria. That is, the design is based on the assumption that a particular
earthquake magnitude, level of ground motion, or amount of displacement on a fault will occur during the life of the
facility. In recent years, probabilistic models have become increasingly used in evaluating seismic hazards.
Estimates of the likelihood or probability of future earthquake occurrence are quantified into probabilities through the
use of earthquake hazard models. These models express assumptions regarding the timing and size of earthquake
occurrence based on a physical and statistical understanding of the earthquake process. As
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SEISMIC HAZARDS: NEW TRENDS IN ANALYSIS USING GEOLOGIC DATA 227
our understanding of fault behavior advances, the use of forecast models and the quantification of probabilities based on
more refined geologic input will take on greater importance in guiding judgments regarding seismic design parameters.
Some of the more common models are discussed below. They range from simple models that require few data constraints to
complex models that, because of their large number of data constraints, have rarely been applied. It is expected that, with
our evolving understanding of fault behavior and earthquake generation, increasingly sophisticated models will be put into
more frequent use.
Poisson-Exponential Model
The most commonly used hazard model (see Cornell, 1968) is based on the assumption that earthquakes follow a
Poisson process. That is, along a fault or within a seismic source zone, earthquakes are assumed to occur randomly in time
and space. Coupled with this assumption is the exponential distribution of earthquake magnitudes. The Poisson-exponential
model assumes that the times between earthquake occurrences are exponentially distributed and there is some time between
occurrences of particular magnitudes. Therefore, the time of occurrence of the next earthquake is independent of the elapsed
time since the previous one. Also, the Poisson process has no “memory” in that the magnitude of the next earthquake will
not depend on the magnitude of any past events. Finally, the magnitude, locations, and times of occurrence of earthquakes
along the fault are independent. This means, for example, that a long period of quiescence does not imply anything about
the size of the next earthquake. Also, the next event is just as likely to occur on a segment of a fault that recently ruptured
as on any other segment. Where data on faults and fault behavior are lacking, the Poisson-exponential model may be
necessary and useful. However, in many cases the assumptions of the model may not be compatible with our understanding
of the physical processes of earthquake generation.
For the Poisson-exponential model few data constraints are required. The probability of occurrence of x number of
events during time t is only a function of the rate v (the average number of events per unit time or the average recurrence
interval):
(14.4)
The rate v may come directly from geologically derived estimates of earthquake recurrence.
Time-Predictable Model
The time-predictable model, as proposed by Shimazaki and Nakata (1980), is based on assumptions of constant rates
of stress and strain accumulation and that stress accumulates to some relatively constant threshold at which failure occurs.
From these assumptions, given the size of the most recent strain release (usually expressed as coseismic fault slip) and the
rate of strain accumulation (slip rate), one can predict the time to the next earthquake Figure 14.10). In this regard, the
time-predictable model is relatively deterministic, although some uncertainty may be introduced in the model parameters.
For example, stochastic models of earthquake occurrence have been developed based on the time-predictable model
(Anagnos and Kiremidjian, 1984).
The evaluation of seismic hazards would be greatly simplified if all faults followed a time-predictable behavior.
However, it is likely that this is not the case. Rather, time-predictable behavior may be strongly dependent on tectonic
environment. Along plate boundaries, such as major transform fault zones like the San Andreas, or subduction zones, where
the rate and source of stress are relatively constant and the rate of strain accumulation is high, major faults and fault
segments may approach a generally uniform behavior. In these cases, a time-predictable model may provide a reasonable
approach to quantifying hazard, even if there is some uncertainty in the precision regarding the regularity of recurrence.
Geodetic observations in Japan suggest that the rate of strain accumulation between large earthquakes is not constant, but if
the true variations in rate can be measured, the time-predictable model may still be applicable (Thatcher, 1984). However,
the time-predictable model does not appear to be applicable to interplate environments, where repeat times for the same-
size earthquake on a fault can be highly variable.
FIGURE 14.10 The time-predictable recurrence model. With information on the amount of the most recent coseismic fault slip
(heavy line) and the assumption of linear strain accumulation (thin line), the time to the next earthquake (dashed line) can be
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estimated (from Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980).
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SEISMIC HAZARDS: NEW TRENDS IN ANALYSIS USING GEOLOGIC DATA 228
Renewal Models
Renewal models, which are also referred to as real-time models, also imply a time-dependent accumulation of energy
between major earthquakes. As opposed to the Poisson model, renewal models have a one-step “memory” that considers
the time since the most recent event (Figure 14.11). That is, the likelihood of earthquake occurrence during a particular
future period of interest, which is referred to as conditional probability, is related to the elapsed time since the most recent
event and the average recurrence interval between major earthquakes. To use this model, the parameters required are the
elapsed time, the average recurrence interval, and the uncertainty of dispersion about the average recurrence.
Renewal models and variations thereof have been widely used to describe earthquake occurrence (Veneziano and
Cornell, 1976; Kameda and Ozaki, 1979; Savy et al., 1980; Grandori et al., 1984). More complex models that are based on
an assumed renewal process have also been proposed. However, additional parameters are required to specify these
models, for example, the semi-Markov two-step memory that relates the probability of future earthquakes of particular
sizes to both the elapsed time since the most recent event and the magnitude of the prior event. This model has been used to
assess probabilities of earthquake occurrence in Alaska (Patwardhan et al., 1980), the Wasatch Fault zone (Cluff et al.,
1980), and the San Andreas Fault (Coppersmith, 1981).
FIGURE 14.11 Schematic diagram of simple renewal model. A, The distribution of earthquake repeat times (recurrence
intervals) is represented by the probability density function. The future period of interest is shown from present, t to (t+ǻt). The
conditional probability of earthquake occurrence is defined as area under the density function (stippled area) divided by the
area under the curve to the right of the present. B, For the renewal model the conditional probability varies as a function of the
elapsed time since the most recent earthquake, whereas the Poisson estimate is independent of the elapsed time.
In many instances, renewal models have the potential to provide the most realistic estimates of seismic hazard.
Therefore, it should be the goal of hazard evaluation studies to provide the fault behavior data that best characterize seismic
sources.
SOME FINAL THOUGHTS
In recent years there has been an evolution in the approach toward the evaluation of seismic hazards. Deterministic
estimates of maximum earthquake size and associated ground motion that are based on a restricted data base are gradually
being replaced by probabilistic assessments of future earthquake potential that incorporate information on earthquake
recurrence intervals, displacement per event, fault slip rate, fault segmentation, and the uncertainties in these parameters.
This is occurring, in large part, because of the progress that has been made in obtaining and using geologic data to quantify
fault behavior and earthquake processes. We are optimistic that future geologic investigations, especially of faults or
seismic sources associated with historical events that can be used for calibration, will provide even greater insights into
understanding the space-time relationship between faults and earthquakes. Characterization of hazards in greater detail will
increase our ability to make better informed and more realistic engineering decisions regarding seismic design.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We thank Walter J.Arabasz and Robert D.Brown for their insightful and constructive reviews.
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VOLCANOES: TECTONIC SETTING AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY 231
15
Volcanoes: Tectonic Setting and Impact on Society
DONALD W.PETERSON
U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver
ABSTRACT
Volcanic eruptions frequently interfere with human affairs; impacts range from minor nuisances to major disasters. Some 50 to
65 different volcanoes typically are active in any given year, and among these a small number may cause significant damage
and human casualties. Eruptions of catastrophic proportions occur but a few times in a century. Volcanoes are a dramatic
manifestation of tectonic processes, and the distribution of most of them is closely related to tectonic belts. Consequently only
about 10 percent of the world's population lives in localities that may, at one time or another, be affected by volcanic activity.
Near long-dormant volcanoes, public attitudes toward hazards commonly reflect unconcern. In contrast, the onset of activity
may spawn unreasoning fear.
Geological studies of volcanic systems and monitoring of active volcanoes have revealed important insights into volcanic
processes. Volcanologists can inform people about volcanoes and help to improve responses to volcanic crises. But in so
doing, volcanologists stray into unfamiliar territory, dealing frequently with public officials, land managers, and members of
the news media. Misunderstandings may arise among these groups because of differences in background, objectives, and
perceptions, and at times even well-based scientific opinions may encounter skepticism. It is vital, however, for volcanologists
to communicate effectively with civic leaders and journalists, for it is only through constructive and harmonious interactions
that optimum public response to volcanic hazards can be developed.
INTRODUCTION
Volcanic eruptions are among the most spectacular and awesome of all natural phenomena. From earliest human
history they have both fascinated and terrorized mankind. Volcanoes have created some of the Earth's most beautiful
scenery but also caused some of its greatest catastrophes. The geologic record reveals countless prehistoric eruptions that
were orders of magnitude more voluminous and violent than any that have occurred in the brief span of human history;
when such huge events occur again they will cause unprecedented disasters. The problems posed by known volcanism
during recorded history and contemporary times, as well as those posed by the unknown but inevitable volcanism of the
future, are compelling reasons to improve our understanding of volcanic phenomena. Even though little hope exists for
controlling other than the most benign volcanic manifestations, some forms of volcanic energy can be harnessed for man's
benefit; an example is the
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utilization of geothermal energy as a source of heat and electrical power. Compared with many other fields of science,
volcanology is in its infancy; yet substantial progress is being made both in understanding volcanic processes and in
developing methods of forecasting eruptions.
This paper (1) reviews the relations that volcanoes bear to the tectonic belts of the Earth, (2) summarizes the major
kinds of volcanic activity, (3) reviews principal methods that scientists have used to study and forecast volcanic activity,
and (4) discusses the ways that people react to volcanic activity.
VOLCANISM IN THE CONTEXT OF TECTONICS
The distribution of volcanoes throughout the world broadly parallels the major tectonic belts, although they do not
precisely coincide (Figure 15.1). Epicenters of major earthquakes are much more widely scattered than are volcanoes, and
large segments of active tectonic belts have no volcanoes at all. Nevertheless, all but a few of the world's active volcanoes
lie close enough to the major zones of active earth movement to have long provoked speculation and discussion on the
nature of and connection between earthquakes and volcanoes. The current theory of plate tectonics provides a unifying
framework explaining the association.
Most volcanoes lie on or near two of the three principal types of boundaries between the moving crustal plates: (1)
spreading boundaries, where plates move away from each other, and (2) compressive boundaries, where plates move
toward each other and one overrides the other. The third type of boundary, transform, along which the plates slide laterally,
is rarely associated with volcanism. But some volcanoes lie far from plate margins, and most of these are explained as a
result of the plate moving across a stationary, magma-generating spot beneath the crust. Other intraplate volcanoes require a
more elaborate explanation.
FIGURE 15.1 Map of the volcanoes of the world, showing the relation between volcanoes and tectonic belts. Solid circles are
volcanoes with eruptions since 1880; open circles are volcanoes with dated eruptions prior to 1880; triangles are volcanoes
with undated but geologically recent eruptions; small crosses are volcanoes with uncertain or solfataric activity. Light double
lines are spreading boundaries; thin cross-hatched lines are compressive boundaries (adapted from Simkin and Siebert, 1984).
Most spreading boundaries are sites of frequent volcanism, but most submarine eruptions go undetected (see text), hence few
specific submarine volcanoes appear on this map.
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The basic concepts of plate tectonics have been formulated during the past two decades through multidisciplinary
efforts; useful summaries of the developments are found in Oxburgh (1971), Vine (1971), Wyllie (1971), and LePichon et
al. (1973). An easily read summary of how volcanoes fit into plate-tectonics theory is provided by Decker and Decker
(1981). The following discussion summarizes the concept and its relations to volcanism.
Most spreading boundaries lie on the floors of oceans (Figure 15.1), where they form a broad, linear ridge typically
surmounted by a narrow trough or graben along the crest. As the opposing plates separate from each other, magma rises
from depth along the tensional cracks to erupt as fluid basaltic lava on the ocean floor, thus forming new crust along the
spreading boundary. Although no deep ocean-floor eruptions have been detected or observed in progress, bathymetric
mapping of the seafloor, studies of the basalt recovered by deep-sea dredging, and photography and other observations from
deep-diving submersible vehicles provide evidence demonstrating the close relations between volcanism and the spreading
process.
Computations based on rates of seafloor spreading and the relative ages of mid-ocean ridge basalts show that the
worldwide total volume rates of eruption from submarine volcanism are several times the totals from subaerial volcanism
(Nakamura, 1974). However, this most common form of the Earth's volcanism has essentially no direct impact in the form
of hazards on human society because of its depth and remote location beneath the ocean. Future technology may change
this if attempts are made to recover mineral deposits believed to be associated with submarine volcanoes. However, in a few
places, spreading-type volcanism does impinge on people: it has produced islands such as Iceland astride the mid-Atlantic
ridge, and a spreading rift crosses part of East Africa.
Most compressive or convergent plate boundaries form a subduction zone along which one plate descends beneath the
other. A linear submarine trench commonly marks the boundary between two such plates. Within, adjacent to, or above the
downward-moving slab, partial melting occurs. The resulting magma migrates upward through the crust to emerge
eventually at the surface, causing volcanic eruptions from a linear belt of volcanoes that typically lies inland from but
parallel to the compressive boundary. The long-recognized circum-Pacific “ring of fire” is the result of subduction. More
than 80 percent of the world's recorded historic volcanism has occurred along the Pacific margin and offshoots such as the
Indonesian and Marianas arcs.
The third type of plate boundary, transform faults, does not seem to cause volcanism, but some transform faults may
incidentally offset a spreading or compressive boundary along which volcanoes are located.
Although most active volcanism is associated with plate boundaries, some important volcanic centers lie within the
interior of plates, in some cases thousands of kilometers from a boundary. An explanation of some intraplate centers of
volcanism is the concept of a melting or hot spot—an inferred stationary source in the upper mantle producing magma that
rises through the overlying moving plate to form volcanoes at the surface (Wilson, 1963, Morgan, 1971, 1972a,b). The
melting-spot hypothesis has been further supplemented by the concept of “gravitational anchors,” a model that explains
both the processes at melting spots and many of the geophysical and geochemical data observed at intraplate volcanoes
(Shaw and Jackson, 1973). The most fully documented example of such a system is that of the volcanic islands and
seamounts of the Hawaiian-Emporer chain (Dalrymple et al. 1973). Several other volcanic centers in the mid-Pacific Ocean
may be associated with melting spots.
Other intraplate volcanic centers lie in the western United States, central and eastern Asia, west Africa, and west-
central Europe. Most of these show no apparent evidence for being related to a melting spot, and how they fit the plate-
tectonic theory requires special explanation. The structures and volcanic evolution of the western United States have been
related to complex interactions among plates and subplates along the Pacific-North American margin throughout the past 30
m.y. (Christiansen and Lipman, 1972). The prehistoric but potentially active volcanic centers throughout this region are
associated with an extremely complicated and continually changing state of stress, and pulses of motion along structural
lineaments have been proposed as triggering the formation of magma (Smith and Luedke, 1984). These ideas demonstrate
the important role of volcanism in the past and ongoing development of the concepts of plate tectonics.
CHARACTERISTICS OF VOLCANOES AND ERUPTIONS
The term “volcano” is defined in two ways; both definitions are valid and are in common use. A volcano is (1) the
opening or vent through which volcanic material (molten, solid, or gaseous) is emitted to the surface, and (2) the edifice—
hill or mountain—built by the emitted material. The first definition applies chiefly to new volcanoes that have not yet
emitted enough material to build an edifice and to those whose products have been dispersed by post-eruption processes.
The second defini
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tion is perhaps the more familiar. The size, shape, and structure of volcanoes vary widely with the physical and chemical
characteristics and amount of the emitted material, and they are classified according to these various factors. Examples of
large volcanic edifices include composite cones and shield volcanoes. Composite cones are typically steep-sided structures,
some of great beauty like Mayon in the Philippines and Fuji in Japan. Most large volcanoes associated with compressive
plate boundaries are composite cones. They are built of lava flows alternating with layers of pyroclastic fall, pyroclastic
flow, and other fragmental material. Shield volcanoes, in contrast, are broad, gently sloping structures, built of many
overlapping tongues of lava that had great fluidity; Mauna Loa and Kilauea in Hawaii are examples. Descriptions of these
and other volcanic landforms are in such textbooks on volcanoes as those by Macdonald (1972), Bullard (1976), Williams
and McBirney (1979), and Decker and Decker (1981).
Material erupted by volcanoes is of widely diverse type and character. Eruptions cover the spectrum of size, violence,
and rates of ejection and travel of the material. Hazards vary accordingly. Volcanic products assume a variety of forms,
including lava flow, pyroclastic fall, pyroclastic flow, lahar, volcanic gas, and debris avalanche and a wide assortment of
intermixtures and intergradations.
Lava flows originate by quiet welling from a vent or by more vigorous lava fountains, and they vary from fluid and
mobile to viscous and slow. Fluid flows may travel long distances, they may be either sheetlike or lobate depending on
topography, and they are thin relative to their length and breadth. On steep slopes, speeds may reach several tens of
kilometers per hour. Viscous flows travel slowly and only short distances, and they are thick relative to fluid flows of
comparable lateral dimensions. Speeds are typically a few meters to a few hundred meters per hour. Lava flows commonly
destroy property, arable land, buildings, and other structures, but relatively few have taken human lives. A rare exception
was the 1977 eruption of the African volcano Nyiragongo, from which a highly fluid, fast-moving lava flow overwhelmed
several villages and killed about 300 people.
Pyroclastic falls result from violent ejection of fragmented or pulverized rock that travels through the air and falls to
the ground. “Tephra” is a widely used term for this material. Mechanisms that cause fragmentation include explosive
eruptions and vigorous streaming of gas from a vent. Fallout may be directly from eruption columns or from clouds
produced by convective columns and transported by the wind. Convective clouds may rise above pyroclastic flows (see
below) and be transported and deposited as pyroclastic falls. Pyroclastic falls probably constitute the most common of all
volcanic hazards. A small to moderate amount of tephra, with thicknesses of up to a few centimeters, is a nuisance and
causes damage and inconvenience by clogging machinery and covering buildings, roads, and vegetation. It causes breathing
difficulties for humans and animals, and it can abrade tooth enamel. Voluminous tephra falls may be highly destructive;
eruptions during historical and recent times have produced deposits many meters thick that collapsed structures and buried
towns and farms. Fine material may be carried tens to hundreds of kilometers; some large prehistoric eruptions have
deposits that can be recognized thousands of kilometers from their source.
Pyroclastic flows, also known in various forms as ash flows, pumice flows, glowing avalanches, and nuées ardentes,
are gravity-controlled ground-hugging masses of rapidly moving hot particulate matter. Their high mobility is the result of
fluidization of the mass of particles, thought to be caused by both dissolved gases escaping from the hot particles during
travel and the rapid expansion of suddenly heated air engulfed by the advancing mass. The size and shape of source vents,
volume-rate of ejection, temperature of material, and mechanism of transport all vary widely, and each is a factor in
determining the characteristics of the resulting deposit. Pyroclastic-flow deposits may range from narrow and lobate to
broad and sheetlike, and thicknesses may vary from a fraction of a meter to hundreds of meters. Particularly high-
temperature and/or voluminous pyroclastic flows may result in the flattening and welding of particles within parts of the
deposit to form welded tuffs.
The rapid ejection of large volumes of material from a magma reservoir may cause the overlying surface area to
collapse, producing a caldera. Calderas are circular to elongate depressions that are from one to several tens of kilometers
across with walls that may be hundreds of meters high. Crater Lake, Oregon, is an example of this process. Relatively few
caldera-forming eruptions have occurred during historical time, but they include some of the more notable eruptions such
as Tambora (in 1815); Krakatau (in 1883), and Katmai (in 1912). These voluminous eruptions represent perhaps the most
severe of all known volcanic hazards, and localities throughout the circum-Pacific belt and elsewhere have the potential for
producing such eruptions. Their frequency of occurrence, fortunately, is very low by human time standards. Several times
during the past million years, however, calderas have formed during truly immense eruptions of pyroclastic flows with
volumes one or two orders of magnitude larger than those of historic erup
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VOLCANOES: TECTONIC SETTING AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY 235
tions. For example, calderas at Yellowstone National Park, Long Valley (California), Lake Taupo (New Zealand), and Lake
Toba (Sumatra) all developed during pyroclastic-flow eruptions with volumes of tens to hundreds of cubic kilometers.
General summaries of pyroclastic-flow deposits are provided by Smith (1960a,b) and Ross and Smith (1961); summaries of
the concepts of relations between pyroclastic-flow deposits and calderas include those of Williams (1941), Smith (1960a,
1979), Smith and Bailey (1966, 1968), and Fisher and Schminke (1984).
Pyroclastic surge is a type of flow of particulate matter characterized by a relatively low ratio of solids to gas.
Consequently surges are less dense, and they tend to be of relatively low temperature; their deposits are commonly sorted
and stratified and display assorted bedforms, such as crossbedding. In contrast, typical pyroclastic flows have a high ratio
of particulate matter to gas and have relatively high temperatures; deposits are typically nonsorted and nonstratified. Surges
tend to be pulsating, whereas other pyroclastic flows are more continuous. Like pyroclastic flows, surges may travel at high
speed, commonly in the range of 50 m per second but sometimes exceeding 100 m per second. Large historical surges have
traveled as much as 30 km from the source. Surges may occur either separately or together with pyroclastic flows, and
sometimes surges precede or follow pyroclastic flows, forming intergradational deposits. For these reasons, pyroclastic
surge is here considered as a variant form of pyroclastic flow, even though some authors regard it as a distinct process.
Several different types of surge have been described, and the development of the concept and additional references are
found in Moore (1967), Sparks (1976), Wohletz and Sheridan (1979), and Fisher and Schminke (1984). Both flows and
surges are highly destructive of property, crops, and natural resources; they have taken many human lives. The eruption of
Pelée in 1902, for example, which included both flow and surge phenomena, claimed 28,000 lives.
Lahars are dense slurries of water-saturated volcanic debris that travel downslope, occasionally at velocities as high as
40 m/sec. They are sometimes called volcanic mudflows; but because they consist of material of all sizes, including blocks
as much as several meters in diameter, the Indonesian term lahar is preferred. They may be generated during eruptions
when fragmented volcanic material becomes intermixed with water, such as from a crater lake or any other body of water
or from eruption-induced melting of snow and ice or from eruption-induced rainfall. They may also be generated during
quiet periods between eruptions when heavy rain or breaching of ponds or lakes mobilizes unconsolidated tephra.
Historically, lahars have been one of the most destructive of all volcanic agents, with a high toll of both lives and property.
Some historical deposits are tens of cubic kilometers, and some prehistoric deposits are hundreds of cubic kilometers in
volume, and large lahars can travel over 100 km from their source. Kelut Volcano, Indonesia, is a notorious example where
dozens of historical eruptions have been accompanied by lahars; in 1919 more than 100 villages were destroyed and over
5000 people were killed. Ruiz volcano (Colombia) had a moderate eruption in November 1985; melted snow and ice
generated lahars that destroyed cities and towns greater than 50 km from the volcano, and more than 20,000 people were
buried.
During volcanic eruptions gases are not only a major product of emission, but they are considered to be the chief
agent that propels the eruption. The most abundant volcanic gases include H2O, CO2, CO, SO2, SO3, H2S, HCl, and HF, and
minor amounts of many other gases have been identified. Gas emissions often continue between eruptions, and some vents
issue volcanic gas continually for years and decades. Several of the gases are poisonous, and some are corrosive; and in
developed areas near gas vents humans, animals, plants, and property may be adversely affected. Certain forest trees and
agricultural crops may become stunted or fail to survive gas emissions, such as during the 1783 eruption of Laki, Iceland,
when fluorine-poisoned crops resulted in a famine that led to 10,000 deaths. At some volcanoes heavy gases have
accumulated in basins or flowed down valleys, displacing oxygen and killing humans and animals. At Dieng, Indonesia,
such gas emitted during a small eruption in 1979 killed 150 people.
Another important volcanic process, which became much more widely recognized as a result of the 1980 eruption of
Mount St. Helens, is the debris avalanche. At Mount St. Helens, an earthquake triggered the unstable, oversteepened north
flank of the volcano into motion, and a catastrophic large landslide ensued that deposited some 2.8 km3 of debris in the
nearby river courses and lake basin (Voight et al. 1981). Although large landslide deposits had previously been identified
at a number of volcanoes, many additional deposits of similar origin have subsequently been recognized throughout the
world. The experience at Mount St. Helens demonstrates that not only is the avalanche itself destructive, but the abrupt
removal of material can depressurize an underlying phreatomagmatic system, which may then explode with cataclysmic
violence (Lipman and Mullineaux, 1981). At Mount St. Helens, the debris avalanche launched a whole array of additional
volcanic processes, including pyroclastic surges, flows and falls, and lahars.
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IMPACT OF VOLCANOES ON PEOPLE
Distribution of Volcanoes in Relation to Human Population
Concentration of volcanoes along relatively narrow belts means not only that a relatively small proportion of the land
area of the world is close to volcanoes but also that a relatively small proportion of the human population has direct
exposure to volcanic activity. Table 15.1 shows an approximation of the percentage of the world's population under risk
from volcanic activity, either continuously, often, or only occasionally. It is assumed that people living within, say, about
300 km of an active volcano would be the most aware of and concerned about volcanoes. The table shows a total world
population of 3709 million persons, of whom approximately 357 million live near volcanoes. As a result, somewhat less
than 10 percent of the world's population is likely to experience risk from volcanic activity, and many of these for only
relatively brief periods. Hence efforts to generate support for research and surveillance of volcanoes frequently encounter
only apathy and disinterest because the great majority of people have not directly experienced the problems. Only after
major volcanic disasters does general interest become widespread, such as that generated by the 1980 eruption of Mount
St. Helens.
A high proportion of those countries having large segments of the population living in hazardous areas are developing
countries, such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and countries in Central and South America (Table 15.1). These countries
have but limited resources for dealing with the problems posed by volcanoes. Some developed countries with volcanic
problems, such as New Zealand and Iceland, have but small populations. In western Europe, only Italy has historically
active volcanoes located in areas that affect major population centers. The United Kingdom and France have overseas
possessions with volcanoes (Caribbean and Indian Ocean regions), but these island colonies have small populations and lie
far from the centers of government and industry. Similarly, the volcanoes of Spain and Portugal lie in the Canary and Azore
Islands, well removed from national centers. Geologically young volcanic districts in France and West Germany have had
no activity during human recorded history. Most of the volcanoes of the Soviet Union lie in a remote region of eastern
Siberia thousands of kilometers from the center of government. The historically active volcanoes of the United States lie
only in Hawaii and Alaska and in the Cascade Range of California, Oregon, and Washington. They directly affect less than 5
percent of the people of the United States. Other volcanic centers throughout the western United States have the potential
for extremely destructive eruptions (Smith and Luedke, 1984), but because they have had no historical activity, public
perception of their hazard is low. Among the largest powers, only Japan has active volcanoes in areas where they have
direct and frequent influence on a high proportion of the population near the centers of national life. This selective
distribution of volcanoes relative to centers of major influence in world affairs appears to be a cause of the rather low level
of concern and understanding of volcanic hazards among the people of the world.
Effects of Volcanoes on People and Their Activities
In spite of the widespread lack of concern, nearly 10 percent of the world's people do live and work near active
volcanoes. Among the discussions of volcanic hazards and their implications to society are those by Macdonald (1972,
1975), Murton and Shimaburuko (1974), Warrick (1975, 1979), Marts (1978), Hodge et al. (1979), Sheets and Grayson
(1979), Williams and McBirney (1979), Blong (1984), Crandell et al. (1984), and Tomblin and Fournier d'Albe (in press).
Each provides insight into the hazards and risks posed by volcanoes. Most conclude that except during and shortly after
crises, most people in risk-prone regions have little concern even about their own neighborhood, although they may be
aware that elsewhere major eruptions cause serious consequences.
The adverse effects of volcanoes are partly offset by often-overlooked beneficial effects. Volcanoes are builders of
land. Many oceanic islands throughout the world owe their very existence to volcanic activity, and in these and other
coastal areas volcanoes occasionally add new land. Even greater benefits are the water and air of the planet. Ancient
volcanoes transferred volatile components from the molten depths to the surface to form the primitive oceans and
atmosphere, and these were gradually modified to form the environment in which living things could develop. Hence
volcanoes are one of the agents to which life itself owes its existence.
Fertile soils develop from volcanic rock, and products from eruptions naturally renew them from time to time. In
Indonesia the heaviest population is concentrated in the parts of Java and Bali that experience frequent damage or
destruction by volcanic ejecta, for these are also the areas that sustain the richest agriculture. Where the climate is
compatible, virtually every volcanic region on Earth is noted for its agricultural productivity. Volcanoes also produce
outstanding scenery, and many volcanic areas support thriving tourist industries.
The common proximity of volcanic belts to coastlines
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means that some volcanoes lie near heavily used transportation and shipping routes. Geographic location and the benefits
of volcanoes thus combine to attract human populations and activities to certain eruption-prone regions. Agriculture,
tourism, shipping, and accompanying commercial and industrial activities may grow and flourish, especially near
volcanoes with long eruption-recurrence intervals.
TABLE 15.1 Tabulation of Estimated Population Dwelling Near Volcanoes in Each Continent or World Region Compared with
Total Population for Each Region
Continent or Region Country or Section Within Continent or Region That Has Volcanoesb
Name a
Total Population (in Name Total Population Population Near Subtotals
millions) Volcanoesc
Africa 354 Ethiopia 26 2
Other E. Africa 74 4
Central Africa 37 1
West Africa 104 2 9
Asia (except USSR) 2,104 Indonesia 125 105
Philippines 39 32
Japan and Ryukyus 106 95 232
North America 229 Alaska 0.3 0.2
(including Hawaii) Washington 2.9 2.9
Oregon 1.8 1.8
California 18.8 6
Hawaii 0.7 0.7 11
Middle America 96 Mexico 53 40
Central America 17 13
Caribbean Islands 26 4 57
South America 195 Colombia 22 7
Ecuador 6 6
Peru 14 5
Chile 10 3 21
Europe (except 466 Iceland, Jan Mayan 0.3 0.3
USSR) Italy 54 22
Greece 9 0.4
Canary Is., Azores 1.3 1
USSR 245 Kamchatka 0.4 0.2 24
Oceania 20 New Zealand 3 1.5
Papua New Guinea 3 0.5
Island groups (i.e., 1 1 3
Mariannas, Solomons,
New Hebrides,
Samoa)
Total World 3,709 Total Population Near 357
Population Volcanoes
aPopulation figures are for early 1970s and have been adapted from Ehrlich and Ehrlich (1972). Some sectional figures have been derived from various
geographic atlases.
b Precise data not available in convenient references; figures are estimates based on broad distribution of populations both within and outside volcanic
belts.
cThe countries and sections listed are derived from those having appreciable historic activity as shown in Simkin et al. (1981).
At some places the activity is frequent and people learn to coexist with the volcanoes, carrying out mitigating
measures as necessary. When the activity is mild, eruptions are an inconvenience, but more vigorous activity may cause
minor to major destruction. Repeated destruction in some areas has led to adoption of land-use zoning, where frequently
damaged areas are left undeveloped or minimally developed. Relatively successful adaptations are found in Japan,
Philippines, Indonesia, and Iceland, but even in these countries some authorities are concerned over excessive development
in places susceptible to damage by volcanoes. Volcano observatories have been established at a several frequently active
volcanoes throughout the world, where systematic sur
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veillance and monitoring are carried out to provide advance warnings of impending activity.
At many volcanoes, however, intervals between eruptions may be so long that the hazards are overlooked or
forgotten. Commercial, industrial, agricultural, and residential development may proceed without regard to the potential
threat of the volcano. When indications of potential activity commence, it may be difficult to evaluate their significance.
Many such signs either subside with no activity or lead only to mild activity. However, sometimes precursory signs are
followed by major disastrous eruptions that destroy both lives and property. Several well-known, large eruptions that
followed quiet intervals of decades to centuries are Vesuvius (Italy, AD 79); Krakatau (Indonesia, 1883); Pelée
(Martinique, 1902); Lamington (Papua New Guinea, 1951); Agung (Indonesia, 1963); Mount St. Helens (United States,
1980); and El Chichon (Mexico, 1982). Each of these eruptions cost human lives. Minor symptoms precede almost all large
eruptions, but at infrequently active volcanoes they may be either ignored or misinterpreted. Even at Mount St. Helens,
where the early minor symptoms were extensively studied, it was not possible to forecast the time or character of the
cataclysmic event. However, precursors have been successfully interpreted to predict more than a dozen subsequent
eruptions (Swanson et al., 1983).
Cataclysmic events, although uncommon, have a far greater influence on human perceptions than do the many lesser
eruptions that occur each year throughout the world. Major eruptions arouse the awareness of people everywhere to this
natural process and its capacity for destruction. Such eruptions demonstrate the need for improved understanding of the
processes that cause volcanic activity. The interest generated by new major eruptions generally leads to temporary modest
increases in support of research on volcanic processes and improvement of surveillance techniques.
VOLCANO MONITORING
From a world total of about 540 volcanoes with identified historical activity (Simkin et al., 1981), about 50 to 65
different volcanoes erupt every year. Many eruptions occur in remote regions where their impact on human affairs is
minimal, and many of those reported are small and cause but minor damage. Even so, on the average about a dozen
volcanoes per year cause appreciable damage and sometimes human casualties, and from one to a few times per decade
volcanic eruptions cause major damage and disruption with many casualties.
In spite of the subordinate ranking of volcanic hazards in public consciousness, most countries with active volcanoes
have been able to organize some effort to observe and study them. The United Nations and several of the more developed
countries with foreign aid programs have given occasional assistance to countries whose own resources are small, and
efforts are being made to improve and continue these programs. However, in every country decisions must be made on how
to allocate the limited available resources in the most effective way. For example, it must be decided whether to achieve
broad but dilute coverage for an entire region or instead to concentrate on one or a few frequently active volcanoes. The
ideal goal would be to monitor them all, but this is rarely possible. Decisions on priority are reached by fitting the available
surveillance program to known patterns of volcanic behavior. Even with abundant resources, it is difficult to achieve fully
satisfactory warning capabilities. While great strides have been made in monitoring procedures and general volcanic
processes are becoming better understood, each volcano has a wide range of individual behavior, and few volcanoes
exhibit the same precursors or eruptive style. Virtually every eruption at every volcano adds new information to the scope
of possibilities.
Within this framework of limitations and difficulties, a wide array of tools and techniques has proven important for
study, monitoring, and forecasting. Some techniques have universal applicability, whereas others prove useful only at some
volcanoes or for certain eruptive episodes. Hence monitoring techniques applied at any volcano are best established by trial
and error, gradually discovering the most effective techniques and adapting them to local behavior patterns. As more data
are collected, perhaps more universal behavior patterns will be recognized.
Monitoring Te chnique s
The most basic of all techniques, and one frequently overlooked or ignored in these times of high technology, is that
of careful, systematic, visual observation. Descriptions by trained and practiced observers for background and quiet
conditions, for precursory periods, for eruptive activity, and for changes caused by eruptions constitute the most essential
surveillance technique of all. Such observations are the starting point from which all other techniques begin. It is desirable
for the observations to be supplemented by topographic maps at several scales, aerial photographs with stereographic
coverage, and systematic documentary photographs—all made at appropriate time intervals. But even when these valuable
supplements are not available, the records of keen and diligent observers are vital.
An extensive literature describes the multitude of in
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strumental techniques utilized in volcano monitoring. Useful summaries and applications of common techniques are
provided by Stacey (1969), UNESCO (1971), Civetta et al. (1974), Lipman and Mullineaux (1981), Martin and Davis
(1982), and Tazieff and Sabroux (1983). Citations to individual papers within these collections will not be given in this
abbreviated summary.
Seismic monitoring is the single most essential instrumental technique used in volcano surveillance. As magma rises
toward the surface before eruption, stresses forming in the adjacent rocks are relieved by fracturing and slippage, which
seismographs detect as earthquakes. Most of these are of very small magnitude (less than Richter magnitude 1), although
these microearthquakes may be interspersed with some quakes of larger magnitude (1 to 5). Another type of signal
commonly recorded is a fairly continuous, low-frequency rhythmic vibration that is termed volcanic tremor (more
commonly but slightly erroneously called harmonic tremor). It is generally thought to be associated with the movement of
fluid through passageways in rock, though the mechanism that generates volcanic tremor is not fully understood.
At most volcanoes the numbers of earthquakes per unit time and the rate of seismic energy release show systematic
increases prior to eruptions. Such increases, particularly when accompanied by or interspersed with volcanic tremor, are
one of the most important techniques in forecasting volcanic eruptions (Figure 15.2). They are used with most confidence
where repeated similar patterns have been observed prior to earlier eruptions. Each volcano seems to have an individual set
of characteristic signals, so although the general principles are common to all, the details recorded at one volcano do not
necessarily apply at any other. Not every increase in seismic activity at a volcano precedes an eruption, which sometimes
greatly complicates the forecasting process and emphasizes the importance of utilizing multiple techniques for
surveillance. However, rarely if ever does an eruption begin without being preceded by an increase in seismicity; hence any
volcano with even primitive seismic instrumentation will likely give some warning before eruption.
Nearly as important as seismic monitoring are various techniques of measuring ground deformation. As magma rises,
it displaces rock, and these displacements are transmitted through intervening rock and expressed at the surface.
Displacement of the surface may also be caused by pressure exerted by gases exsolving from the magma. These
displacements cause points on the surface of the ground to move in relation to one another, both vertically and horizontally,
and the amounts and rates of movement can be detected by a variety of techniques. The simplest of these is a measuring
tape; if cracks or faults develop, distances between fixed points on opposite sides of the break can be measured
periodically, and rates, and sometimes directions, can be determined and plotted. Across distances from tens of meters to
tens of kilometers, horizontal displacement between fixed points can be monitored by electronic distance meters; modern
precise instruments utilize a laser beam. Vertical changes can be determined by repeated leveling along survey lines.
Changes in slope of the ground are determined by tilt measurements by precise surveying techniques, water-tube devices,
or electronic tiltmeters. High-precision photogrammetry is now capable of detecting ground displacements to within
fractions of a
FIGURE 15.2 Plot showing data as detected by three different monitoring methods spanning a 2-month period at Mount St.
Helens. The period includes an episode of lava extrusion during September 1984. Increases in seismicity, rate of ground
displacement, and rate of gas emission were associated with this extrusion. The extrusion of lava began about September 10
and continued for a few days. Signals commonly increase at accelerating rates during days prior to the onset, and decrease
when extrusion begins. A, Seismicity as shown by daily earthquake count at a seismograph located in the crater. Counts began
to increase in late August and progressively increased for several days; signals saturated the record from about September 8 to
11. Seismicity returned to background about September 14. B, Maximum daily rate of displacement of selected target on lava
dome. Prior to September 1, the background rate was from about 2 to 5 cm/day; from September 2 to 8 the rate increased from
10 cm/day to about 3.5 m/day. The displacement rate exceeded 50 m/day just prior to onset of extrusion and declined rapidly
after extrusion began. C, SO2 gas emission rate as measured by aircraft-mounted COSPEC. Data are not continuous because
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flights are made at irregular intervals. This extrusion was preceded and accompanied by a pronounced increase in emission
rate, but some events show little or no change.
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meter, so it holds promise of being a useful supplement in detecting deformation, particularly in places where access is
difficult. Repeated measurements by any of these techniques may give an indication of when swelling of the volcano is
occurring, but ideally a combination of all of them is employed, preferably with multiple stations and lines to attain a broad
coverage. Constant rates of displacement indicate steady inflation or deflation of the volcano. Days to weeks before an
eruption, rates of displacement may increase or total displacement may reach some critical level. Such changes, especially
when correlated with seismic observations, are important in predicting eruptions (Figure 15.2). When observations are
made over a wide enough area, displacement vectors can estimate the location of the center of swelling, and further
analysis may give indications of the depth, size, and behavior of the magma body. Ground deformation studies are,
therefore, important both to forecasting and to improving understanding of volcanic processes.
The chemical and mineralogical composition of the erupted products is important in assessing the character of an
eruption and the general state of the volcano, and systematic collection and analysis of lava and tephra samples are critical
activities. Any change in composition during an eruption provides clues to magmatic processes and may hint of potential
changes in eruptive behavior.
Changes in the gravitational-field strength are caused by a change in elevation or a change in the density of nearby
rocks or both. At a volcano the altitude of points on the surface may change in response to intrusion or withdrawal of
magma, and the nearby mass distribution may also change in response to the same processes. Eruptions add new rock to the
surface, and other volcanic processes may cause collapse or other redistribution of material, which affects the local gravity
field. Changes in the level of groundwater associated with eruptions, rainfall, or accumulated snow and ice can cause
changes in the gravitational-field strength. Because of these complexities, it is unlikely that gravity measurements can be
used as a forecasting tool. But when coupled with other techniques, especially ground-deformation measurements, they can
be useful in constraining and better defining models for movement of magma and other volcanic processes.
Gases are significant components of magma, and their chemistry, rate of emission, and relative proportions provide
clues to magmatic behavior and to volcanic processes in general. The manner and rate at which gases are liberated from the
magma are primary factors determining the type and style of any eruption. Moreover, during the times between eruptions,
gases being exhaled from vents and fumaroles provide the only component of magma that can be readily sampled. Hence
gases have long been recognized as an important subject for study, both for potential value in eruption forecasting as well
as in improving the understanding of volcano behavior. Modern collecting and analytical techniques can yield reliable
results for gas composition, and changes in ratios among different gases can help scientists to infer the eruptive potential of a
volcano. Changes in the absolute emission rates of volcanic gas empirically would seem to reflect the likelihood of eruption
because, as magma rises, confining pressure decreases and cracks develop in adjacent rocks, which should tend to increase
gas flux. Use of the correlation spectrometer (COSPEC) at Mount St. Helens and other volcanoes has helped to confirm
this concept. The COSPEC, an instrument originally designed to monitor air pollution, can be utilized to measure the flux
rate of SO2 gas, and results have demonstrated broad, and sometimes specific, fluctuations that correlate with volcanic
behavior (Figure 15.2). Electronic probes to detect hydrogen emissions and transmit data via telemetry have been deployed
at a few volcanoes.
Changes in the strength of the magnetic field at a volcano can be caused either by the underground movement of
magma or by changes in the stress patterns in the adjacent rocks. Regardless of the cause, a change in field strength should
be a useful supporting technique to forecast eruptions. Studies have been carried out at a number of volcanoes, generally by
deploying an array of magnetometers at sites on the volcano with one instrument established at a site remote from the
volcano; the readings are systematically telemetered to a recording station. In addition to the absolute magnetic field
measurements, the field-strength differences between the distant and near sites are recorded so as to neutralize nonvolcanic
fluctuations such as magnetic storms and diurnal variations. Promising results have been obtained at several volcanoes,
showing some changes in field strength associated with volcanic events, but assorted difficulties with instruments,
telemetry, and volcano-induced damage have not yet allowed the technique to achieve its full potential.
Several kinds of study have been performed at volcanoes using a variety of electrical and electromagnetic techniques.
Electrical resistivity of magma and molten lava is low, whereas that of dry solidified lava is high; resistivity is further
modified by the variable conductivity of permeating groundwater. The contrasts are adaptable to a wide variety of studies
and experiments with different kinds of instruments and equipment. Self-potential, very-low-frequency electromagnetic,
resistivity, and induced polarization are a few of the tech
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niques that have been used for experiments and studies at volcanoes.
Measurement of temperature changes at the surface seems to be an obvious method of detecting change within a
volcano, but it must be applied with caution. Under certain conditions at some volcanoes, increases in temperature occur at
hot springs, fumaroles, and crater lakes, and systematic temperature surveillance is a useful monitoring tool. But surface
temperatures can be affected by many nonvolcanic factors—rainfall, snow, changing groundwater levels, vegetation,
weather conditions such as clouds and wind, and diurnal changes—so measurements must be carefully interpreted. A
number of methods may be used to determine temperature; the simplest being direct measurements using thermometer,
thermistor, or thermocouple, depending on the temperature range. Care must be taken on successive readings to occupy the
same location under as consistent environmental conditions as possible. Thermal infrared techniques have been used at
some volcanoes; measurements can be made remotely, either from ground stations or by aerial survey. These methods are
useful in detecting broad changes in thermal patterns, but unless expensive calibrated equipment is used they do not yield
quantitative results. Readings depend heavily on atmospheric conditions; clouds, rain, dust, and volcanic fume will affect
results. In spite of these difficulties, efforts are under way at some volcanoes to establish consistent calibrated thermal
surveys. Fluctuating temperatures at some crater lakes have preceded some eruptions; such changes can supplement
symptoms revealed by other techniques to help forecast activity.
PUBLIC RESPONSE TO VOLCANIC ERUPTION
Most people, in areas impacted by a volcanic eruption, are not especially interested in the research that keeps
volcanologists occupied. During an emergency, they are concerned chiefly with the practical matters that affect them
directly. Their questions are: Will the volcano erupt again? Will the lava (or volcanic ash) come in our direction? How
often will it happen? How long will the eruption last? When can we go home? When can we resume our regular work?
People generally expect scientists to answer these questions, yet they rarely can be answered with confidence.
When confronted with the stark conditions of displacement, discomfort, and perhaps survival, people may be surprised
that the volcanologists are concerned with such seemingly esoteric matters as rock chemistry, tiny motions of survey
markers, and wiggly lines on paper charts. While some people are interested and understanding, others will regard such
activities as irrelevant, inane, or futile, and scientists may be viewed with indifference, skepticism, or hostility. It is
difficult for some people to comprehend that answers to the scientific questions are ultimately the chief hope for answering
their own questions. For a more beneficial outlook, people need information and education, both about volcanoes and about
methods used in their study. Hence in regions likely to experience volcanic eruptions, it is important for regular programs
of education to be carried out before times of crisis. It is in the interest of scientists themselves to provide impetus,
encouragement, and even to sponsor such education. In making long-range plans for appropriate use and development of
land, zones may be established as defined by relative degrees of volcanic hazard (Crandell et al., 1984).
Various ways can be utilized to inform people about volcanoes, such as special meetings; talks to schools, civic
groups, and clubs; and through booklets and pamphlets, displays at museums and visitor centers, newspaper articles,
television and radio programs, and open houses at volcano observatories or other research facilities. The specific means can
be adapted to local conditions.
In the broad scheme of interactions between a volcano and the people, three other groups besides the scientists play
key roles: public officials, land and property managers, and representatives of the news media. When a nearby volcano is
quiet, all groups have the opportunity to participate in the important functions of education about volcanoes and preparation
for crises, both for their own enlightment and for the benefit of the people they serve. When the volcano becomes active,
all become responsible for critical functions. In many branches of science, scientists have but minimal or casual dealings
with public officials, land managers, and news media, but when working with an active volcano, scientists must deal
regularly with them all. Each group will find it advantageous to attain a good understanding of the role of the other and to
gain appreciation and respect for the requirements, capabilities, and limitations of one another. While each group performs a
different role, all have the common goal of promoting the welfare of the community.
Interactions Between Volcanologists, Public Officials, and Property and Land Managers
Wide variations exist from one country to another in the type of government and land ownership. Regardless of the
prevailing system, however, those vested with appropriate responsibility each have an essential role to play when
confronting problems posed by volcanoes. In areas of high volcanic risk, public officials and property
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and land managers will be wise to gain at least minimal knowledge about the nature, characteristics, and range of behavior
of the volcanoes in and near their jurisdiction. Ideally volcanologists will assist them, and members of each group will
establish acquaintance and a good working relationship during times when the volcano is quiet. All can foster education,
both for children in schools and for adults in meetings and forums by public and private groups. Officials can formulate
contingency plans that prescribe courses of action for all departments in the event of a volcanic emergency. Property and
land managers can anticipate questions regarding operations and access on their property and develop contingency policies
in conjunction with public officials. Drills may be held by all groups for practice and to test and improve the plans. At some
volcanoes, the hazards affect two or more local jurisdictions, in which case the adjoining governments should cooperate in
developing the plans and in practicing the procedures. Volcanologists may serve as advisors in such exercises.
In most societies, elected or appointed officials hold authority for making the decisions on common action in response
to a volcanic crisis (Warrick, 1979; Blong, 1984; Tomblin and Fournier d'Albe, in press). Depending on the situation and
conditions, the officials may be at the local, regional, or national level. They must decide if and when people are to be
evacuated; designate the boundaries of the evacuated area; determine routes and transportation methods; arrange for food,
shelter, sanitation, medical care, and other needs of the evacuees; and pay the costs. An evacuation is an economic loss in
terms of the cost of evacuation, care of those evacuated, and interrupted productivity; it is a social disruption because of the
displacement of people from their homes and occupations. Officials face grave decisions when confronted with a volcanic
crisis: to fail to evacuate during early activity when a destructive eruption follows may result in lives lost; yet to evacuate
when no eruption follows results in social and economic loss. Either circumstance is inevitably followed by a hail of
criticism (Hodge et al., 1979; Blong, 1984; Fiske, 1984; Tomblin and Fournier d'Albe, in press).
Officials themselves are rarely able to judge independently whether the condition of a volcano warrants evacuation;
they must depend on the advice of scientists. At frequently active volcanoes, especially those where an observatory keeps
the volcano under regular surveillance, the advice of the scientists is usually reliable. At these volcanoes, procedures for a
warning and subsequent decisions and actions are generally well established; familiarity and frequent practice aid officials
in making sound decisions. Several correct decisions on warning and evacuation will build up public confidence and likely
some tolerance for an occasional incorrect decision. Officials tend to lean toward the side of caution when issues of public
safety are involved. The expenses incurred in unnecessary evacuations may help to convince officials that costs of volcano
research are sound investments. But all should realize that even well-monitored volcanoes produce surprises.
In contrast, at volcanoes that are little studied, infrequently active, or believed to be extinct, the onset of unrest may
create confusion and uncertainty. Public officials are likely to be unsure over the proper steps to protect the people and to
uphold the public interest. They desperately need sound scientific advice, yet volcanologists brought in to evaluate such
situations must often make conclusions based on inadequate data gathered quickly. Any resulting advice to officials may be
heavily qualified with uncertainties. Unless mutual understanding has been established earlier, such advice may be
perceived as inadequate or incompetent. During such situations, controversy may develop between scientists and public
officials. Sometimes the officials want the scientists to make and be responsible for the decisions on evacuation and degree
of allowable public access; more commonly the officials prefer not to relinquish this authority. Such decisions involve
economic and social consequences about which scientists generally have little expertise, and the officials must weigh
carefully the degree of hazard against the consequences of various choices. The volcanologists have the responsibility to
state the degree of risk in language that is as clear and unambiguous as possible, recognizing that few officials are familiar
with technical terminology or with scientific methods of judging uncertainties based on scant evidence. However, if
evidence is compelling that hazards are severe or unequivocal, volcanologists must make this clear by making appropriate
recommendations. Yet all parties should understand that, unless authority is otherwise vested, the ultimate decisions about
public safety are in the hands of the public officials.
Interactions Between Volcanologists and the News Media
Newspapers, magazines, television, and radio constitute the principal means by which people learn about potential or
actual eruptive activity at any particular volcano. The degree and type of news coverage is determined by the size and
character of the volcano or eruption, its accessibility, and the size and distribution of the local population. Journalists are
generally more interested in the impact of an event on people than in the scientific aspects. Major eruptions in isolated
regions of
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ten receive little or no notice by the press, whereas even minor events in populated areas receive much attention.
It is important that public officials, property and land managers, and scientists have effective means for
communicating with the press, because the public welfare requires that prompt, reliable, accurate information be conveyed
to the news media. Both public officials and large land managers deal with the press regularly, so channels and procedures
are normally already in place. Volcanologists, however, may be unfamiliar with media procedures, so it is important that
they prepare themselves.
If a group of scientists is studying an erupting volcano or one showing signs of erupting, it is well to designate a single
member of the group to communicate with the news media; if the team is small the person may be the leader. Having a
single representative ensures continuity and consistency and permits mutual confidence and rapport to develop while
minimizing the chances for misunderstandings. Ideally this scientist-for-information is fully informed on the status of the
volcano and on the activities, findings, and opinions of every team member and reports to the press regularly after
consultation with the other scientists. Reports should be as complete and factual as possible, emphasizing what has
happened and is happening. The scientist must be prepared on how to respond to questions regarding the timing, nature, and
magnitude of future events. These are important questions, and seeking their answers is one of the principal reasons for the
scientists' activities; yet most of the time these questions do not have clearly defined answers. The scientist must still
respond in a factual, helpful manner, stating the range of possibilities and the degrees of uncertainty in terms of ongoing
processes that are understood. Many reporters will be dealing with an unfamiliar subject, and information should be
presented, insofar as possible, in straightforward, everyday language. The scientist should be patient with reporters as they
learn and be genuinely concerned in helping them to produce complete and accurate stories. Honesty and sincerity inspire
confidence from media members, which in turn enhances the quality of the news stories.
Departures from this ideal sometimes occur. Controversies between scientists may arise, sometimes when two or more
groups come from different institutions or different countries. It is best to try to resolve such controversies privately. But if
the news media learn of them, the controversies can still be handled constructively by showing that volcanology is a young,
inexact science and that progress is made by testing opposing hypothesis. Sometimes, however, such public disagreements
become antagonistic; the disagreement may rival the story of the eruption, relations between scientists and media
deteriorate, the public becomes confused or angry, and scientists lose credibility. Such a controversy occurred at La
Soufrière Volcano on Guadeloupe in 1976 (Fiske, 1984).
While constructive and mutually supportive relations between scientists and the news media are the ideal goal, it is
sometimes not achieved. Most scientists who have experienced more than a few interviews can cite examples of
misquotations, quotations out of context, or news stories that are flatly inaccurate. On the other hand, reporters have equally
valid complaints about scientists who talk in obtuse language, refuse to see them, or are perceived to be arrogant.
Differences in perceptions and goals between scientists and journalists are probably the cause of most of this antagonism
and controversy. In an effort to help members of each group better understand the other, Table 15.2 outlines some of the
complaints scientists and journalists have expressed about each other. These problems stem partly from the basically
different personalities attracted by the contrasting professions. Their respective job requirements are different. Scientists
must be accurate, analytical, and deliberate, and they must consider many lines of evidence before reaching conclusions.
Statements of their conclusions are commonly hedged with qualifiers. In contrast, journalists must be quick and decisive,
and while they strive for accuracy it must be achieved within a framework of perpetual deadlines. Further, they must
quickly identify the key factors, emphasize them, and reduce a body of information to its simplest terms. Table 15.2 is
arranged to illustrate opposite but corresponding complaints, which demonstrate how mutual misunderstandings develop
from particular situations. Obviously not every aspect of these problems can be covered in an abbreviated and generalized
table, but even so it implies ways to improve understanding between scientists and journalists.
When scientists understand the reporters' needs to get quickly to the main point, they can dispense with lengthy
preambles and excessive qualifiers. Scientists can minimize jargon and be sure that those technical terms that are necessary
are clearly defined. It is useful for them to remember that they are not delivering a paper at a scientific meeting but instead
are conveying information, through the reporter, to people from all walks of life. Reporters in turn have the responsibility to
strive for accuracy in expressing the information. Nothing is more frustrating to the scientist than to find himself misquoted
or to have his statements used in a wrong context. He is put in the position of seeming to provide incorrect, perhaps
damaging, information to the public. Reporters should not be reluctant to check back to
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TABLE 15.2 Some Common Sources of Friction Between Scientists and Journalists
Complaints by Scientists About Reporters Complaints by Reporters About Scientists
We get misquoted in news stories Scientists talk in jargon that no one else can understand
Reporters are too pushy and aggressive Scientists are aloof, hard to reach, uncooperative
Reporters are not satisfied with what we tell them; they are Scientists do not tell the whole story, they hold back and conceal
always looking for hidden angles; they are too suspicious information
Many reporters are poorly prepared; they know nothing about Scientists expect us to be experts in their subject, they are
the subject or even about what has already happened here impatient in giving us the background we need
Reporters interrupt our work schedules; they do not seem to see Scientists do not understand the time deadlines under which we
how they themselves are hindering us in trying to find answers to are required to operate
their (and everyone's) questions
Reporters do not really listen to the whole story we try to tell Scientists are too long-winded; they talk all around the subject
them; their coverage is shallow; they omit the all-important and never get to the point. They do not understand that we need
qualifiers to our statements; they think all answers should be to use straightforward simple statements; we have to convert
black and white but ignore all the intermediate shades of gray their complicated discourses to words that people can read
Reporters seek out differences of opinion between scientists and When we try to verify our story with a second opinion, we
overemphasize them; they try to make a story by fabricating cannot get any consistency between different scientists. How do
discord we know who to believe?
NOTE: This table shows examples of attitudes and actions that lead to antagonism between scientists and journalists. Their listing here is not intended as
criticism of either group nor to fuel controversy. Instead they are intended to help each group recognize how its own attitudes and actions impinge on the
other, thereby aiding members of each group to seek ways to improve the perceptions of the other. Happily, the complaints are not universal, and many
members of both groups understand and accommodate the others' viewpoints and requirements.
verify the accuracy of their stories; scientists should welcome such opportunities. Many of the hard-to-reach scientists
about whom the reporters complain are those who have been embarrassed by past misquotations. These potential problems
demonstrate the value of having a specified scientist to provide information; this person can become practiced in
responding to reporters' needs, seek ways to improve each presentation and avoid past mistakes, and build up friendly
rapport. Likewise it is helpful if the same reporters stay on the story long enough to gain knowledge and build consistency;
when new reporters are assigned, they can avoid many problems if they acquire appropriate background before starting
their interviews.
It is important that each group understand the work requirements and time schedules of the other. Newspapers and
television have deadlines at different times, and neither necessarily fits the normal working schedule of a field
volcanologist. When the scientific staff is small, stopping work to grant interviews interferes with the acquisition and
interpretation of data. However, when both groups better understand the others' legitimate requirements and limitations, it
is almost always possible for them to accomodate each other. When such cooperation is achieved, the public reaps the
benefits.
Summary of the Volcanologist's Role in Enhancing Public Unde rstanding
People properly informed about the character and behavior patterns of volcanoes are best prepared to deal with
volcano emergencies when they arise. Only near volcanoes that either erupt frequently or have just recently erupted,
however, are members of the general public likely to have much awareness of volcano hazards (Murton and Shimaburuko,
1974). In areas distant from volcanoes, or in areas near long-dormant volcanoes, people are unlikely to be aware of
problems posed by volcanoes. Even at times of volcanic crisis elsewhere, the general reaction is commonly, “aren't we
lucky those things don't happen here.”
Among all groups of people, volcanologists and other earth scientists are the most likely to be aware of the
troublesome potential of nearby volcanoes. Many recognize the responsibility to raise the general awareness of the hazards,
yet their efforts are often misunderstood or misconstrued. For example, when the now-renowned report by Crandell and
Mullineaux (1978) on volcanic hazards at Mount St. Helens first appeared, it received considerable local criticism for being
scarey and potentially adverse to the economy. Then, in spite of the les
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sons learned at Mount St. Helens in 1980, a storm of criticism arose when a notice of potential hazard was issued in 1982
at Mammoth Lakes, California, in response to repeated earthquake swarms (the hazards are summarized in Miller et al.,
1982). The warnings were perceived by some of the local population and the press as self-serving to the scientists as well as
highly damaging to property values and local business. Even in Hawaii, where, if anywhere, people should be aware of
problems posed by volcanoes, a report describing volcanic hazards of the Island of Hawaii (Mullineaux and Peterson,
1974) was severely criticized by some community leaders for depressing the local economy and hampering development in
volcano-prone areas. Similar reactions have occurred during recent seismicity and deformation at both Rabaul, Papua New
Guinea, and Pozzuoli, Italy. Such reactions demonstrate traits typical of human nature and emphasize the attitudes of
indifference or hostility induced when receiving information about potentially unpleasant matters.
They also underscore the challenge that faces scientists as they attempt to inform the public about volcano hazards.
The importance of the message is great enough that the scientists must not only be willing to face the adverse reactions but
also to persist in finding truly effective ways of conveying information that is important to societal needs. Competent
scientific information does little good if it is ignored, scorned, or disbelieved. It is important for scientists to be tactful,
patient, and perservering as they deal with the news media and public officials on matters concerning volcano hazards.
They must find ways to employ the same qualities of innovation and resourcefulness that they normally display in scientific
research if their hazard messages to the public are to be heard and heeded.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This paper reflects the experience, ideas, and opinions developed during service at both the Hawaiian Volcano
Observatory and the Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO). I am grateful to my colleagues at each facility for support,
discussions, and constructive debate on both the scientific and societal issues associated with hazardous volcanoes. I am
also grateful to the public officials, land managers, and representatives of the press in both regions, with whom we explored
together to find positive ways to solve the problems that we faced. The paper was reviewed by D.R.Mullineaux,
R.W.Decker, and several colleagues at CVO, and it has been greatly improved by their suggestions.
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VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE 247
16
Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Disposal of High-Level Radioactive
Waste
BRUCE M.CROWE
Los Alamos National Laboratory
ABSTRACT
Volcanic hazard studies for disposal of high-level radioactive waste pose a number of unique problems. These include the long
time frame of hazard assessment (104 to 106 yr), the limited geologic record of volcanic activity at disposal sites and the
political sensitivity of this national problem. The major variables affecting volcanic hazards are the structure of magma feeder
systems at repository depths and the magma fragmentation and dispersal energy of eruptions. The latter is generally controlled
by magma composition and the presence or absence of groundwater. Long-lived volcanic fields (>1 m.y.) provide the greatest
potential risk for waste disposal, but these can be avoided by proper site selection. Short-lived volcanic fields are more difficult
to avoid but are generally mafic in composition, which results in smaller disruption zones and explosive eruptions of lower
energy than those of long-lived centers.
Volcanic hazards are evaluated through risk assessment, which is a product of probability and consequences. These studies
have been completed for a potential waste disposal site in the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Cenozoic volcanism of the NTS region
is divided into three distinct episodes. The youngest episode, 3.7 to 0.3 m.y., comprises scattered, monogenetic Strombolian
centers of small volume (<1 km3 ). Rates of volcanic activity for the NTS region are estimated to be about 10í6 event/yr, based
on vent counts through time and calculation of rates of magma production. The conditional probability of disruption of the
possible waste disposal site at the NTS by basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10í8 to 10í10 yrí1. Consequences,
expressed as radiological release levels, were evaluated by assuming disruption of a repository by basaltic magmas fed along
narrow dikes. Limits are placed on the volume of waste material incorporated in magma by analogy to the abundance of lithic
fragments in basalt scoria and lava. These consequences would be increased if rising magma encountered water and produced
magma/water vapor explosions, which can eject large volumes of country rock. Such a mechanism would be important only if
the vapor explosions excavated a crater to repository depths (380 m)—an unlikely event, based on the dimensions of
hydrovolcanic craters. The total expected release from disruption of a repository by basaltic magma for a 104-yr period is 1.8
Ci for spent fuel and 1.3 Ci for high-level waste.
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INTRODUCTION
Regardless of the current or future use of nuclear power reactors for the generation of electricity, one of the major
national problems facing scientists across a range of disciplines is the safe disposal of high-level radioactive wastes.
(High-level radioactive waste refers to heat-producing waste.) By current definitions, this includes two by-products of
nuclear reactors—spent fuel assemblies and reprocessed spent-fuel assemblies. The current consensus of the scientific
community is that the most viable means of waste isolation is through deep burial in selected rock formations. This is the
present policy of the U.S. Department of Energy. The suitability of a number of sites for storage of high-level radioactive
waste is now being actively investigated. Two of the sites that have undergone thorough geologic investigations are the
Hanford site in southern Washington (waste burial in the Columbia River Basalt) and the Nevada Test Site (NTS) in
southern Nevada (waste burial in ash-flow sheets of the Timber Mountain-Oasis Valley caldera complex).
Geologic investigations leading to selection of sites for burial of radioactive wastes pose several problems. First,
detailed characterization of a block of the Earth's crust is required on a level that is unprecedented in the science. This
characterization has unique requirements. First, the repository block must be defined with a high degree of confidence, and
yet penetrations of the block by exploratory drilling or tunnels must be limited so the integrity of the block is not
compromised. This restriction requires an emphasis on geophysical techniques as a primary means of site exploration.
Second, the potential effects of construction of a repository tunnel complex and the thermal disturbance of the rock from
the emplacement of heat-producing waste must be evaluated with respect to induced changes that could alter the isolation
properties of the rocks. Third, the rates of operation of natural geologic processes on the block, such as groundwater
movement and tectonic uplift or erosion, must be defined to evaluate the suitability of the block for containment of
radioactive waste elements. Finally, possible future changes from naturally occurring but more catastrophic tectonic
processes such as seismicity or volcanism must be evaluated for the required isolation period of high-level waste. This last
topic, which falls in the regime of predictive geology is the focus of this paper. More and more frequently, geologists are
being asked by other scientists and the public to make specific predictions on the future activity of geologic phenomena.
Although some progress has been made in prediction of earthquake and volcanic activity, most predictions are valid for
periods of months or at most a few tens of years. In contrast, geologic predictions required for waste disposal must
encompass a period of thousands of years. We have limited experience in the geologic methods used to make such
predictions and even less experience in communicating and defending decisions based on geologic predictions in a public
forum. This chapter describes recent work concerned with prediction of tectonic processes for one specific problem—
volcanic hazards related to permanent isolation of high-level radioactive wastes. Two topics are emphasized: (1) the special
problems posed by volcanic hazard assessment for waste disposal and (2) the use of risk-assessment techniques to evaluate
volcanic hazards for the storage of high-level radioactive waste in tuff in southern Nevada (Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage
Investigations).
SPECIAL PROBLEMS INHERENT IN VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR WASTE DISPOSAL
SITES
Perhaps the most novel aspect of volcanic hazard assessment for radioactive waste disposal is the length of time for
which hazards must be forecast. The required containment period of high-level radioactive waste is 104 yr as defined in the
draft version of the Environmental Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and
Transuranic Radioactive Wastes [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1982) 40 CFR 191]. This standard, which has
not yet been formally approved, is based on a radiological comparison of the projected mass of radioactive waste [105
metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM)] with an equivalent amount of unmined uranium ore. A 104-yr period has been chosen
as the required interval for radioactive waste to decay to a level where the risk is about the same as the smallest estimate of
the risk from an equivalent amount of uranium ore (EPA 520/1 82–025, p. 29). However, Bredehoeft et al. (1978) noted
that 104 yr provides adequate containment for the short-lived radionuclides such as 90Sr or 137Cs but allows for only a
limited reduction in the potential hazards of long-lived radionuclides like 129I. Gera (1982) argued that the waste should be
allowed to decay until the radiotoxicity levels are equal to the levels from the amount of uranium consumed in a reactor.
This would require an isolation time of about 105 yr. Whatever the required isolation period of high-level waste, this period
becomes the minimum length of time for which future volcanic hazards must be forecast. Both 104 and 105 yr are long
compared to the rates of operation of volcanic processes.
The long time frame of hazard assessment is a special problem of waste disposal. There is neither an estab
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lished methodology nor scientific experience to draw on to test data conclusions. Because the regulatory guidelines for
volcanic hazards are general, it is difficult to decide what types of data best satisfy licensing requirements. This ambiguity
has led to increased pressure to quantify the interpretations because numeric data are more easily judged in licensing
decisions. However, no matter how the arguments are constructed, these calculations have large uncertainties that are
difficult to evaluate within the constraints of the existing general guidelines for site licensing. Moreover, the development
of safe methods to permanently isolate radioactive waste is closely linked to the future use of nuclear power reactors, a
highly sensitive national issue. Studies dealing with the suitability of a site for waste disposal are subjected to intense public
scrutiny.
Another problem that applies to most tectonic processes and to volcanism in particular is the relatively limited record
used to forecast future activity. Licensing requirements of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (document 10 CFR
60) specify that a site under consideration for disposal of high-level radioactive waste must have limited Quaternary
igneous activity. Although this is logical for siting considerations, it presents a dilemma for forecasting future rates of
volcanism. Either subjective assumptions must be made to estimate numerical rates of volcanism from the limited
Quaternary record, or the time scale of the volcanic assessment must be lengthened to include more volcanic events.
Neither approach is satisfactory and both increase the possibility that the data do not adequately represent possible future
volcanic activity at a repository site.
FORECASTING VOLCANIC HAZARDS: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Examination of the distribution of volcanic rocks in the United States shows that all Quaternary and, in fact, all major
Cenozoic sites of volcanic activity are restricted to the western conterminous United States (for example, Suppe et al.,
1975; Smith and Luedke, 1984). Giletti et al. (1978) noted that for the area east of the Rocky Mountains “…the probability
for a magmatic incursion into a waste repository during the next million years has been taken as astronomically low, but
numerically uncertain.” The obvious conclusion, therefore, is that siting a waste repository east of the Rocky Mountains
eliminates volcanism as a licensing issue. However, all current potential waste disposal sites, with the exception of an
unspecified site in domal salt in Louisiana or Mississippi, are west of the Rocky Mountains and within the broad region
identified by Smith and Luedke (1984) as having the potential for future volcanic eruptions.
Crowe (1980) reviewed the major factors controlling the disruption of a repository by volcanism. He noted that the
significant variables are the structure of magmatic intrusions or feeder systems at repository depths (>300 m) and the
eruptive style of surface activity. The latter is generally controlled by magma composition and the presence or absence of
groundwater. Magma feeder systems range from narrow dikes to diapirs; the controlling variables are the viscosity and
yield strength of the melt and the rate of heat exchange between the wall rock and the magma. It must be possible for the
magma to ascend to the surface before falling temperatures or crystallization prevent eruption (Wilson and Head, 1981).
Basaltic magmas ascend along linear dikes because of their low viscosities and Newtonian fluid behavior. Calculated
ascent rates based on the presence of high-density nodules, geophysical data, and theoretical considerations are about 1 to
10 cm/sec (Crowe et al., 1983b). In contrast, silicic magmas must ascend as diapirs as a result of their high viscosity. The
rate of rise is controlled by the diapir size and the viscosity of the wall rock; ascent velocities are 10í2 to 10í6 cm/sec
(Marsh, 1984).
Monogenetic volcanic centers are single-cycle volcanoes with eruptive durations of days, months, or years. Magmas
associated with these centers are generally of basaltic composition with variations toward andesite. Field studies of the
roots of monogenetic centers show that they are fed by narrow dikes (aspect ratios of 10í2 to 10í3), which is consistent with
their composition (Crowe et al., 1983b). Eruptive activity in these centers is transitory, and the flux of magma is
insufficient to maintain a magma chamber at shallow crustal levels (Fedotov, 1981). The disruption zone associated with
monogenetic volcanic centers is limited, therefore, to the feeder dikes. Magma along these dikes must directly intersect a
repository to disrupt and disperse waste radionuclides. In contrast, shield volcanoes, stratavolcanoes, or large silicic
centers, such as caldera complexes, are long-lived features with multiple eruption cycles and life spans of several million
years. Field and geophysical evidence shows that they are fed from shallow-reservoir magma chambers. The presence of
shallow magma chambers, multiple feeder systems, and hydrothermal circulation systems above a magma chamber means
that the potential effect of repository disruption by these magmas is much greater than that by magmas from monogenetic
volcanic centers.
The potential effect of eruption mechanisms on disruption and dispersal of the inventory of a waste repository is
illustrated in Figure 16.1. This figure, which is
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VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE 250
used for classification of eruption types based on the properties of the pyroclastic component (Walker, 1973; Wright et al.,
1980), can be viewed as a measure of the explosiveness of an eruption. Positive displacement along the x axis represents
increased particle dispersal, and height along the y axis represents increased particle fragmentation. Volcanic eruptions of
basaltic composition have low dispersal and fragmentation values because of their low water contents (0.1 to 2 wt. %),
lower viscosities (102 to 103 P), and Newtonian fluid properties. These eruptions fall into the Hawaiian and Strombolian
fields in the lower left part of Figure 16.1. The limited dispersal and fragmentation characteristics of basaltic eruptions
result in the smallest potential for disruption effects should a repository be penetrated by basaltic magma. The only
important exception is hydrovolcanic activity, when basalt magma mixes at shallow levels with water and is fragmented
and dispersed by water/magma vapor explosions. These eruptions have greatly increased particle fragmentation and
somewhat increased dispersal and fall within the Surtseyan field of Figure 16.1. In marked contrast, andesitic to silicic
volcanic activity spans the sub-Plinian, Plinian, Vulcanian, and Ultraplinian fields of Figure 16.1. These eruptions have
orders of magnitude greater dispersal of pyroclastic debris than that of basaltic eruptions. Silicic eruptions have the
potential for disrupting the entire area of a waste repository and dispersing waste radionuclides on a global scale (Crowe,
1980).
FIGURE 16.1 Classification diagram for pyroclastic eruptions (after Walker, 1973; Wright et al., 1980). The F is the weight
percent of material finer than 1 mm on the axis of dispersal, where it is crossed by the 0.1Tma x isopach. The D is the area
inclosed by the 0.01Tma x isopach.
We thus have two end members of volcanic activity with very different potential effects on a buried radioactive waste
repository: (1) monogenetic volcanoes of mafic composition, which have limited dispersal and disruptive effects, and (2)
long-lived silicic volcanoes, which have large dispersal and disruptive effects. The potential risk from the latter type of
volcanic activity can and should be greatly reduced by careful selection of sites for a repository. Large-volume, long-lived
volcanic centers are generally confined to distinct volcanic zones. For example, continental arc volcanoes form aligned
volcanic chains that are located above active subduction zones. The long-term existence of the arc itself and the host of
tectonic features associated with an active subduction zone make arc volcanism relatively easy to recognize and avoid (for
example, the Cascade volcanic arc in the Pacific Northwest). Similarly, we now recognize that many if not all of the major
silicic volcanic fields of the western United States exclusive of the Cascade chain (for example, the Jemez field in New
Mexico, the Yellowstone field in Wyoming, and the Long Valley field in California) occur in distinct volcanic lineaments
(Smith and Luedke, 1984). These volcanic zones appear to form from melting of the lower crust within areas of upwelling
of mantle-derived basaltic magmas (Smith, 1979;
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Hildreth, 1981). The large flux of basaltic magma required to raise crustal rocks to their melting temperatures and the
apparent need for extensional deformation to provide storage space for the basalts mean that sites of silicic magmatism are
zones of high heat flow and tectonic activity. Again, these are relatively easy to recognize and avoid in selection of sites for
waste storage. The problem of choosing a site for waste disposal in the western United States and minimizing potential
effects of future volcanism becomes a matter of determining the risk of future volcanic eruptions in recognized volcanic
zones.
SITE-SPECIFIC TECHNIQUES OF VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT
There are two methods for assessing the hazards of volcanism at a site being investigated as a repository for high-level
radioactive waste. The first and generally more traditional approach is to study the past record of volcanism at and around a
site by using the current tools available to geologic sciences (field mapping, geochronology, petrology, geochemistry, and
geophysics). Whereas this approach provides essential data for understanding the past record of volcanism, it does not
provide a direct means for deciding whether volcanism represents a significant threat to waste disposal. The second
method, which is used increasingly in geological studies for waste disposal, is risk assessment (for example, Crowe and
Carr, 1980; D'Alessandro et al., 1980). In this sense, risk is defined as the product of probability and consequences.
Probability determinations provide a means of specifying levels of risk as a function of time, and consequences give a
perspective for judging acceptable probability levels. In the following sections, the use of risk assessment is described for a
potential waste disposal site on and adjacent to the NTS.
Volcanic Geology of the Nevada Test Site Region
The NTS is located in southcentral Nevada approximately 80 km northwest of Las Vegas (Figure 16.2). The current
proposed site for burial of high-level radioactive wastes is Yucca Mountain, a linear range upheld by a thick accumulation
of ash-flow and air-fall tuff and associated volcaniclastic rocks derived from the Timber Mountain-Oasis Valley caldera
complex (Christiansen et al., 1977). The identified volcanic hazards for the Yucca Mountain site are twofold: the hazards
of future silicic volcanism and the hazards of basaltic volcanism. The hazards of silicic volcanism are considered to be
negligible for a number of reasons (Crowe et al., 1983a):
1. There has been no silicic volcanism within the NTS region for at least the last 7 million years (m.y.). The
youngest silicic volcanic activity (7 to 8 m.y.) was associated with the Black Mountain caldera, which is
located approximately 80 km north-north west of Yucca Mountain.
2. There has been a dramatic regional decrease, and in most areas a cessation, of silicic volcanic activity within
the southern Great Basin during the last 10 to 20 m.y. (Stewart et al., 1977).
3. Silicic volcanic activity of Quaternary age is restricted entirely to the margins of the Great Basin.
The hazards of basaltic volcanism are much more difficult to define and have been the subject of detailed studies
(Crowe and Carr, 1980; Vaniman and Crowe, 1981; Crowe et al., 1982, 1983a,b). The NTS region is in a zone of active
volcanism referred to as the Death Valley-Pancake Range (DV-PR) volcanic zone. This zone extends from the Lunar
Crater volcanic field in central Nevada south-southwestward to southern Nevada and adjoining areas of eastern California
(Figure 16.2). The zone merges at its southern end with the Western Cordilleran rift zone of Smith and Luedke (1984). The
DV-PR volcanic zone has been active since the cessation of silicic volcanism in the southern Great Basin, about 8 m.y.
ago. At that time, basaltic volcanism surpassed silicic volcanism in erupted volume. Centers of active basaltic and minor
silicic volcanism shifted progressively to the margins of the southern Great Basin, whereas intermittent activity continued
within the DV-PR volcanic zone (Crowe et al., 1983a). Centers of Quaternary volcanic activity in the volcanic zone include
the Cinder Hill scoria cone in southern Death Valley (0.7 m.y.), the Lathrop Wells scoria center (0.3 m.y.) located 20 km
south of the waste disposal site at Yucca Mountain, four basalt centers (1.2 m.y.) aligned along a north-northeast trending
arc in Crater Flat immediately west of Yucca Mountain, two small scoria cones named the Sleeping Butte cones (0.3 m.y.)
located 10 km south of Black Mountain caldera, and at least 10 centers in the Lunar Crater volcanic field.
Two major types of volcanic fields are present in the DV-PR volcanic zone. Type-I fields include long-lived volcanic
fields that are active over a period of several million years. Mafic centers in these fields are clustered, with vent densities of
10í1 to 102 vents/km. Magma volumes of individual centers are approximately 1 to 2 km3, and the total volume of the fields
exceeds 10 km3. The range of rock types in type-I fields includes basaltic andesite and trachyte that probably evolved
through fractionation from basalt and bimodal basalt-rhyolite as
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semblages. Type-I volcanic fields in the DV-PR volcanic zone include the Greenwater and Black Ranges in southern Death
Valley (8 to 4 m.y.), the oldest episode of basaltic volcanism in the NTS region (11 to 8.5 m.y.), the Reveille Range (6 to 5
m.y.), and the Lunar Crater volcanic field (4 m.y. to Recent). Type-II volcanic fields include small-volume (<1 km3)
monogenetic centers, which consist of clusters of scoria cones and small-volume lava flows. Vent densities of these fields
are low and average about 10í3 to 10í4 vent/km2. Lava compositions are predominantly hawaiite with lesser amounts of
alkalic olivine basalt. The hawaiites tend to be of evolved composition (Vaniman et al., 1982) with Mg numbers [Mg/(Mg
+Fe2+)] generally <0.55. Parental basalts (Mg number >0.68) are rare. Type-II volcanic fields in the DV-PR volcanic zone
include southernmost Death Valley, the NTS region, and Kawich Valley (Figure 16.2).
FIGURE 16.2 Generalized geologic map of the Death Valley-Pancake Range volcanic zone. SWM: Stonewall Mountain; BM:
Black Mountain; TM-OV: Timber Mountain-Oasis Valley caldera complex; YM: Yucca Mountain exploration block; DV:
Death Valley; and CR: Coso Range.
Crowe et al. (1983a) divided the basaltic rocks of the NTS area surrounding the Yucca Mountain site into three
episodes; each episode spans several million years and includes basalt from many eruptive centers. The volume relations of
these episodes versus time are shown on Figure 16.3. The oldest episode of basaltic volcanism includes the basalts of the
silicic episode, which erupted during the waning phase of silicic volcanic activity (11 to 8.5 m.y.). These basalts form
bimodal basalt-rhyolite centers that crop out in a northwest-trending zone extending from the south moat zone of the
Timber Mountain caldera to Stonewall Mountain (Figure 16.2). Volumes of basaltic magma associated with the basalts of
the silicic episode are large, and individual centers exceed 10 km3 in volume. The basalts of the silicic episode were
replaced gradationally in time by the older rift basalts. The older rift basalts are either distinctly younger than or spatially
separate from the silicic volcanic cen
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ters. They consist of small-volume (<1 km3) monogenetic Strombolian centers that erupted during the probable peak of
extensional faulting. Magma volumes during this episode declined drastically, then stabilized at low but uniform rates
(Figure 16.3). There was a brief but important pause in volcanic activity between 6.5 and 3.7 m.y. This hiatus was followed
by eruption of the younger rift basalts. These basalts form widely scattered, small-volume centers identical to those of the
older rift basalts. They are separated from the older rift basalts on the basis of their age (3.7 m.y. to Recent) and their
enrichment in incompatible trace elements, with the exception of Rb (Vaniman et al., 1982). The younger rift basalts record
an interval of declining magma production rates (Figure 16.3). The decline may coincide with a declining rates of tectonism
in the NTS region and increased activity in the adjoining southwestern areas of the Great Basin (Death Valley and Owens
Valley, Figure 16.2).
FIGURE 16.3 Plot of magma volume versus time for volcanic episodes of the NTS region. Volumes for the silicic episode are
average estimations for a 1 m.y. period. Volumes of the rift basalts are for individual volcanic cycles. The identification of the
volcanic hiatus is based on extensive age determinations of volcanic rocks in the NTS region.
Figure 16.4 is a geologic map of the Lathrop Wells center. This center illustrates a number of characteristic features of
Strombolian centers of both the younger and older rift basalts. Each center consists of a main scoria cone flanked by
several smaller satellite cones. The satellite cones are generally older and are located south or southeast of the main scoria
cone. This suggests a north to northeastward migration of active vents during an eruption cycle. The number of vents per
center averages 2 to 3 for the Quaternary centers of the NTS region (Crowe et al., 1983b). Blocky aa lava flows vented from
the flanks of the main scoria cone and traveled short distances. Measured flow lengths of Quaternary flows in the NTS
region range from 0.6 to 1.9 km with a mean length of 1.1 km. It is inferred that scoria fall sheets extended downwind from
the main scoria cone. These are entirely removed by erosion at all but the youngest centers in the NTS region. The only
exception is the 270,000-yr-old scoria fall sheet of the Lathrop Wells center, and only minor remnants of this sheet are
preserved. The cumulative volume of individual centers in the NTS region (dense rock equivalent) was calculated assuming a
scoria fall sheet-to-cone ratio of 5:1. Magma volumes for the Quaternary cones of the NTS region range from 105 to 108 m3
with a mean of 3×10 7 (Crowe et al., 1983b, p. 269).
PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT
Probability
Several aspects of the history of basaltic volcanism in the NTS region provide justification for a probabilistic approach
to volcanic hazards. First, there has been a consistency or decline in the rates of basaltic volcanism for the past 8.5 m.y.
Second, all basalt centers formed during the past 8.5 m.y. are small-volume Strombolian centers. Third, the petrology of the
erupted basalts is broadly similar throughout this period, which is indicative of similar conditions of magma genesis. The
consistency in rates, eruptive style, and petrology for this extended period provides a basis for forecasting rates of future
volcanism for the required containment period of high-level radioactive waste.
The probability of disruption of a repository by basal
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tic magma can be formulated as a case of conditional probability
FIGURE 16.4 Geologic map of the Lathrop Wells basalt center located 20 km south of Yucca Mountain. From Vaniman and
Crowe (1981).
(16.1)
where Pr is the probability of repository disruption, E1 is the rate of occurrence of volcanic events, and E2 is the
probability of intersection of a repository by magma, given E1. This probability can be expressed as (Crowe et al., 1982)
(16.2)
where Ȝ is the rate of volcanic activity and p is the probability that an event is disruptive. This formulation assumes
that the time between events is exponentially distributed, and the number of events in time intervals of length t has a
Poisson distribution with a mean of Ȝt. The p can be estimated as the ratio a/A, where a is the area of a repository or of an
assigned volcanic disruption zone (whichever is larger) and A is some minimal area that encloses the repository and the
volcanic events used to describe Ȝ. For the case of basaltic volcanic activity, a is the area of the repository. It is estimated to
be about 6 to 8 km2, based on the size of the exploration block at Yucca Mountain (Crowe et al., 1982). The A can be
selected in a number of ways. Crowe and Carr (1980) defined A as the area enclosed by circles of 25- and 50-km radii with
centers at the Yucca Mountain exploration block. This approach, although computationally simple, does not consider the
spatial trends in the distribution of volcanic centers that are controlled by tectonic features. Crowe et al. (1982) developed a
numerical approach to find the minimum area circle and the minimum area ellipse that contain the volcanic centers of
interest and the repository site. Differing combinations of ellipses and circles were obtained using geologic assumptions
concerning the tectonic setting of volcanic centers. Disruption probability values are calculated and tabulated in table form
(Crowe et al., 1982), which allows a range of values p to be used in Eq. (16.2). The preferred definition of p is based on the
distribution of volcanic centers in the DV-PR volcanic zone.
The most difficult parameter to estimate for probability calculations is Ȝ, the rate of volcanic activity. Ideally, rates
should be determined from an understanding of the controlling processes of volcanic activity. Although this is not now
possible, a number of studies suggest that rates of volcanism are related in a direct but as yet poorly understood way to the
regional stress-strain pattern. That is, rates of volcanism, similar to regional
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VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE 255
seismicity, reflect the degree of tectonic activity of a region. For example, Shaw (1980) related rates of magma production
at Hawaii to seismic moment—a measure of the volume change represented by the release of seismic energy. He assumed
that the potential energy available in a tectonic system may be released through both seismic radiation and the generation
and ascent of magma. The demonstration of a connection between the release of seismic energy per year and the annual rate
of magma production suggests that the two tectonic processes are closely related and that, by inference, magmatism may be
an important process in regulating mantle stress levels (Shaw, 1980, p. 259). Similarly, Feigensen and Spera (1981)
recognized a correlation between the occurrence of tholeiitic and incompatible-element-enriched alkalic magmas and
eruption frequency in Hawaiian lavas. They related magma production to shear-stress deformation (viscous deformation of
Shaw, 1973) and suggested that a reduction in shear stress caused a decrease in the degree of partial melting and an increase
in the time between eruptions. Bacon (1982) documented a time-predictable relation among the basalts and high-SiO2
rhyolites of the Coso volcanic field. He suggested that the magma production rate for the field is controlled by a constant
strain rate. A minimum strain value equal to the failure strength of the crustal rocks must be exceeded to allow ascent of
magma.
These studies, although promising, are not yet sufficiently developed to allow estimates of volcanism rates,
particularly for relatively inactive regions such as the NTS. We thus are forced to forecast future rates of volcanic activity
on the basis of past activity. Crowe et al. (1982) estimated rates of volcanic activity in two ways: through counts of age-
controlled volcanic centers and through variations in magma volume versus time. The first technique involves field
mapping vent zones for Quaternary volcanic centers. Each vent is treated as one volcanic event, and time control is
provided by the K-Ar age and the magnetic polarity of the volcanic center. A somewhat similar approach, with less
rigorous age controls, was used to determine the probability of faulting for a potential waste disposal site in Italy
(D'Alessandro et al., 1980). Estimated rates of volcanic activity are calculated by counting vents within the areas defined in
the determination of A. These rates during Quaternary time (<1.8 m.y.) are about 8×10í6 volcanic events per year for the
NTS region, 7×10í5 volcanic events per year for the DV-PR volcanic zone, and 8×10 í5 volcanic events per year for the
southern Great Basin (Crowe et al., 1982). The latter two calculations are strongly effected by the high cone density of the
Lunar Crater volcanic field at the northern end of the DV-PR volcanic zone.
The calculation of volcanic rates by using rates of magma production is based on Figure 16.5, an expanded version of
Figure 16.3. Figure 16.5 shows magma volume (dense rock equivalent) versus time for the past 3.7 m.y. The basaltic
eruptions show a linear decrease in magma volume with time. Regression analysis, treating magma volume as the
dependent variable, gives a coefficient of determination of 0.8 and a rate of magmatic production of 210 m3/yr. This magma
production rate is used to calculate the times required to generate magma volumes that are equal to representative volumes
of past magmatic cycles in the NTS region. These times, corrected for the time since the last basaltic
FIGURE 16.5 Plot of magma volume (dense rock equivalent) versus time for the younger rift basalts. Error bars for time are
the standard deviation (1) of replicate age determinations. Error bars for the volume are estimates of errors in volume
calculations. From Crowe et al. (1982).
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eruption (2.7×105 yr) give predicted occurrence times or rates of future activity (Crowe et al., 1982).
The conditional probability for the combined occurrence of a future basaltic event and that event to directly
intersecting a buried radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain is calculated using Eq. (16.2) and the data tables for Ȝ
and p. Because of the large uncertainties in the probability calculations, little emphasis is placed on individual calculations.
Rather, a range of probability values is assembled by using a matrix of area ratios and rate determinations. Probability
bounds are established by the extremes of the calculated probabilities. These bounds are 5×10í8 to 3×10í10 yrí1 for the
Yucca Mountain site (Crowe et al., 1982).
Consequence
Consequence analysis involves identification of volcanic processes that could lead to failure of a waste-isolation system
and calculation of the results of failure expressed as radiological levels of released waste elements. Crowe et al. (1983b)
suggested that the most likely event to affect a buried repository at Yucca Mountain would be intrusion of the repository by
rising basaltic magma, followed by Strombolian eruptions of waste-contaminated magmas. They argued, based on field
evidence, that the most likely intrusion structure for basalt at repository depths (>300 m) would be linear dikes, that there
would be 2 to 3 dikes per volcanic event, and that the dike widths and lengths would be 0.3 to 4 m and 0.5 to 5 km,
respectively. Using these background parameters, the important questions become: (1) How much waste material would be
incorporated in the basalt magma, and (2) how would the waste material be dispersed with the magma at the surface?
The mechanisms of intrusion of basalt magma into a waste repository are difficult to predict. Magma could completely
flood a repository tunnel or intrude as narrow dikes with the only magma/waste contact being along the dike walls. In
either case, the number of waste canisters that would be contacted by magma and potentially carried to the surface ranges
from 0 to more than 400 (Logan et al., 1982). It is possible to establish limits on the volume of waste material incorporated
in basalt magma by assuming that the repository is intersected by a dike of random orientation and tracing the pathways of
waste incorporated in magma through analogy with the distribution of lithic (country-rock) fragments in basalt scoria.
Studies of the distribution of these fragments in basaltic rocks revealed that they are derived from shallow levels and are
concentrated in the pyroclastic component (Crowe et al., 1983b). This latter conclusion is based on the fact that particles in a
magma exsolving volatiles are preferential sites of bubble nucleation (Sparks, 1978) and that lithic fragments are present in
small amounts in cone scoria but are extremely rare in lava. Two mechanisms are proposed for the incorporation of lithic
fragments in basaltic magma: (1) during magma fragmentation when the gas-to-magma ratio reaches 0.75 and the magma
disrupts (Wilson and Head, 1981) and (2) during hydrovolcanic explosions associated with a predominantly Strombolian
eruptive cycle. Assuming that waste particles are dispersed in an eruption in the same pattern as country-rock lithic
fragments would be, Crowe et al. (1983b) calculated that 600 to 1100 m3 of a repository inventory would be dispersed in a
pyroclastic eruption. Of that inventory, 15 to 20 percent will be deposited in the scoria cone (less than 1 percent will be
exposed at the surface during a time period of 104 yr), 50 to 80 percent will be deposited in the scoria fall sheet, and 2 to 5
percent will be regionally dispersed with the fine-grained particle component (windborne). These calculations are based on
an average lithic fragment abundance of 0.032 percent by volume in studied scoria deposits of the NTS region and the San
Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona (Crowe et al., 1983b).
An additional eruptive process in basaltic eruptions is hydrovolcanic vapor explosions. This type of eruption occurred
at three basalt centers in the NTS region during the past 10 m.y. The increased dispersal distance and the greater particle
fragmentation of hydrovolcanic explosions, as noted previously, could greatly increase the consequences of repository
disruption. Crowe and Carr (1980) originally argued that hydrovolcanic activity was unlikely at Yucca Mountain. This was
based on the depth to the groundwater table at Yucca Mountain (>300 m below the surface) and the lack of surface water as a
result of the arid climate and steep drainage gradients. Moreover, the moisture content of the unsaturated zone at Yucca
Mountain is insufficient to allow initiation or maintenance of hydrovolcanic explosions except under extreme saturation
conditions (Crowe et al., 1983b). New data on hydrovolcanic activity have caused re-examination of this question.
Although field evidence indicates that lithostatic load has an inhibiting effect on the formation of hydrovolcanic activity
(probably because the vapor phase of water is suppressed), this may not always be the case. In the geologic setting of
Yucca Mountain, groundwater may mix in a supercritical state with magma below the repository level. As the magma/
water mix ascends and the pressure drops, vapor explosions may occur throughout an interval extending from the water
table through the repository horizon to the surface. Studies of fuel-coolant interactions and experimental work using
thermite melt mixed with
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water to simulate volcanic eruptions (Wohletz and McQueen, 1984) show that the major control of hydrovolcanic
explosions is the mass ratio of water to magma. Eruptions may vary between Surtseyan and Strombolian, depending on this
ratio. The optimum ratio for development of Surtseyan explosions is about 0.3 (Wohletz and McQueen, 1984).
The occurrence of lithic fragments in basalt scoria of the Lathrop Wells center may be due, as noted above, to
hydrovolcanic explosions. Such explosions would require a water-to-magma ratio of less than about 0.3 so that the
eruptions would have been predominantly Strombolian with only a minor hydrovolcanic component. This is suggested by
the irregular distribution of fragments in scoria (intermittent explosions) and the fact the initial eruptions of the center were
hydrovolcanic (Vaniman and Crowe, 1981). If it is assumed that the fragments were produced by a hydrovolcanic
component, possible effects of hydrovolcanic explosions were included in the calculations of lithic fragment abundance. In
this case, the consequences of a hydrovolcanic component can be shown to be small (Logan et al., 1982). A more extreme
case, having major negative consequences for waste isolation, would be the possibility of exhumation of a buried repository
during crater-forming hydrovolcanic explosions. This possibility is tested by data summarized in Figure 16.6, which is a
relative-frequency diagram of crater depth for hydrovolcanic centers (maars and tuff rings) based on the data of Pike and
Clow (1981). The crater-depth data are positively skewed, and the mean depth is 91±67 m. The average depth to the
repository horizon at Yucca Mountain is about 380 m (the depth varies throughout the exploration block because of the 6 to
8° eastward dip of the currently favored repository horizon). A depth of 380 m is greater than 4 standard deviations from
the mean depth of hydrovolcanic craters and exceeds the maximum listed crater depth in the data catalog of Pike and Clow
(1981). The low probability of repository disruption (10í8 to 10í10 yrí1), coupled with the low probability of exhumation of a
repository by explosive cratering, suggests that the risk of hydrovolcanic explosions is of limited concern at Yucca
Mountain.
The radiologic consequences of basaltic volcanism have been calculated for the disruption of two hypothetical
repositories, both located at Yucca Mountain (Logan et al., 1982). The first contained unreprocessed spent fuel and the
second reprocessed waste. The calculations assumed a repository storage capacity of half the estimated volume of spent
fuel or reprocessed waste generated by commercial power reactors through the year 2000. It was estimated that the
repository area would be 1640 m2 and would contain waste aged for 10 yr at the time of emplacement. A range of
geometric arguments is used to determine the number of canisters that would be intersected by a linear basalt dike. The
preferred approach was to assume a random orientation of the dikes
FIGURE 16.6 Relative-frequency diagram of crater depth for hydrovolcanic craters. The data are positively skewed with a
mean of 91 m. Repository depth is the estimated average depth to the repository horizon at Yucca Mountain. Maximum crater
depth is the deepest measured crater. Data on crater depths are from Pike and Clow (1981).
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encountering the repository tunnel complex. Accordingly, magma would intersect about seven canisters of spent fuel and
about one cannister of high-level waste—equivalent to an inventory fraction in both cases of about 8×10í5 (Logan et al.,
1982, p. 32). There are no data on the behavior of a waste canister in rising and vesiculating magma. Therefore, it was
assumed that all waste contacted by magma would be incorporated uniformly in the magma and carried to the surface to be
erupted preferentially with the pyroclastic component. Radiological dose was examined in two forms: the dose resulting
from the waste entrained in the basalt eruption column and the dose resulting from exposure to waste-bearing scoria
deposits, resuspended particles, and radionuclides entering the food chain. Population, agricultural, and meteorological data
from Yucca Mountain were used to calculate doses from the airborne component. The worst case for the airborne dose
resulted in a cumulative total of 25 health effects in 106 yr (Logan et al., 1982, p. 6). Dose effects were calculated from
scoria deposits that formed the scoria cone and the scoria fall deposits downwind of a hypothetical eruption and include
effects of erosional transport during a period of 106 yr. The worst case here yields about 2800 health effects in 106 yr.
Finally, Logan et al. (1982) calculated the total activity that would be transported to the surface, normalized to 103 MTHM.
The values vary for the type of waste and the time of eruption relative to emplacement and closure of the repository.
Stepwise integration of the release fraction by radionuclide with the annual probability of volcanic disruption of a
repository using the computer code AMRAW (Logan and Berbano, 1978) gives total expected releases as a function of
time. The total expected release for 104 yr is 1.8 Ci or 0.038 Ci/ 103 MTHM for spent fuel and 1.3 Ci or 0.034 Ci/103
MTHM for high-level waste (Logan et al., 1982, p. 163).
DISCUSSION
A variety of evidence shows that there is a finite risk of volcanism with respect to storage of radioactive waste at
Yucca Mountain. In particular, the site is located in a zone of active volcanism—the Death Valley-Pancake Range volcanic
zone and five Quaternary volcanic centers (1.2 to 0.3 m.y.) are present within a range of 8 to 20 km of the exploration
block. Geologic data show that there has been a consistency in the rates, eruptive style, and petrology of basaltic volcanism
in the NTS region for the past 8 m.y. Volcanic activity in the region was characterized by formation of scattered small-
volume Strombolian scoria cones and lava flows. Rates of volcanism have been low, and there is some evidence of a
decline in the rate of magma production during the past 3.7 m.y. The consistency in the geologic record provides some
degree of confidence that future volcanic patterns can be projected for periods of 104 to 105 yr. These circumstances
provide a reasonable basis for applying risk-assessment techniques to define the magnitude of volcanic hazards. Probability
estimates of the likelihood of the combined occurrence of a future volcanic event and the likelihood that the volcanic event
will intersect a buried repository at Yucca Mountain are very low—10í8 to 10í10 per year. The consequences of penetration
of a repository by basaltic magma followed by eruption of the magma at the surface are limited, perhaps surprisingly
limited. This is due to the small subsurface area of basalt feeder dikes, the probable limited intrusion effects of these dikes,
and the limited surface dispersal of basaltic particulates in Strombolian eruptions. The combination of the low probability
and limited consequences indicate that the risk of volcanism at this particular site is low.
The suitability or unsuitability of the Yucca Mountain site will be decided by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
Commission if the Department of Energy recommends the site as a formal candidate for a waste repository. Certainly many
other criteria other than volcanism will be considered in any licensing decisions; this paper emphasizes the methods
followed to define the magnitude of volcanic hazards. In the Nevada case, geologic, geochronologic, petrologic,
geochemical, and geophysical data are used in combination with techniques of risk assessment to evaluate volcanic
hazards. Some but not all of these methods may be useful for hazard assessment at other sites under consideration for
disposal of high-level radioactive waste.
How reliable are the geologic data used for risk assessment? Certainly the field, geophysical, and laboratory data have
been gathered as carefully as possible, and the reliability of this work must be judged by research standards established in
the current geologic literature. Research data have been evaluated at review meetings where hazard data were presented to a
panel of scientists. The volcanic hazard work has also been published in the scientific literature to provide a wide exposure
to the scientific community. An additional item of concern is the built-in bias in the work. That is, the purpose of the
Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations is to attempt to find and prove a site for disposal of radioactive waste. As
studies of a site progress and increased funding is invested, there is mounting pressure to “prove” the site. The presentation
of both positive and negative evidence of the hazards of volcanism (Crowe et al., 1983b) is an attempt to overcome this
bias.
There is a continuing controversy over the use of
the authoritative version for attribution.
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VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE 259
probabilistic studies in geology. Indeed, the special problems of hazard prediction in waste disposal have brought this
question to the forefront (for example, Marsily and Merriam, 1982). Questions have been raised whether geologic process
are truly random and suitable for probabilistic analyses (D'Alessandro and Bonne, 1982). Certainly, with respect to the
Nevada work, the data used for probability calculations are limited at best. The number of data points for rate calculations
are small, and it is difficult to include effects of tectonic setting in localizing sites of volcanism. What is the time sensitivity
of the data? For the Nevada site, future rates of volcanism are forecast on the basis of the geologic history of the region
during the past 3.7 m.y. The isolation period of radioactive waste is 3 to 0.3 percent of this time, and, thus, it is not clear
how sensitive this approach is to short-term variations in tectonic processes. Because of these data uncertainties, the
probability is presented as a range spanning 3 orders of magnitude and the data assumptions are biased toward the worst
case to provide conservative estimates (Crowe et al., 1982). Similar questions are raised about the results of consequence
analyses. The detailed effects of intrusion of a repository by volcanism are not clear. Variations in the strike of linear dikes
intersecting a repository result in differences in the number of contacted cannisters, ranging from 0 to more than 400
(Logan et al., 1982). Equally, we can only speculate how waste could be incorporated in a magma. It may be maintained in
its cladding, may be fragmented as a particulate, or may be geochemically dispersed in the magma. Any of these
possibilities results in major changes in the calculated radiological dose levels through time.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Much of the work on the volcanic hazards of the NTS site was completed with Will Carr (U. S. Geological Survey)
and Dave Vaniman (Los Alamos National Laboratory); probability studies were completed with Mark Johnson and Richard
Beckman (Los Alamos National Laboratory). I have been greatly aided by their cooperation and numerous discussions. The
manuscript was reviewed critically by B.D.Marsh, G.D.Robinson, D.T.Vaniman, and K.H.Wohletz. Funding for the NTS
work was provided by the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations and the Office of Basic Energy Sciences through
the U.S. Department of Energy.
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Press, New York.
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Protection Agency Rep. 520/6–78–005.
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VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE 260
Hazards, Geophysics Study Committee, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 67–83.
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volume, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep. 81–1038, 40 pp.
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Princeton University Press, pp. 201–264.
Smith, R.L. (1979). Ash-flow magmatism, in Ash-Flow Tuffs, C.E. Chapin and W.E.Elston, eds., Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Paper 180, pp. 5–27.
Smith, R.L., and R.G.Luedke (1984). Potentially active volcanic lineaments and loci in western conterminous United States, in Explosive Volcanism:
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47–66.
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Utah, Geol Soc. Am. Bull. 88, 67–77.
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States, Am. J. Sci. 275-A, 397–436.
Vaniman, D., and B.M.Crowe (1981). Geology and petrology of the basalts of Crater Flat: Applications to volcanic risk assessment for the Nevada
Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations, Los Alamos National Laboratory Rep. LA-8845-MS.
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80, 341–357.
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Wohletz, K.H., and R.G.McQueen (1984). Experimental studies of hydromagmatic volcanism, in Explosive Volcanism: Inception, Evolution, and
Hazards, Geophysics Study Committee, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 158–169.
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INDEX 261
Index
A indicators of, 52–53, 81, 84–85, 137– Australia, northeastern, character of coast-
Active faulting/Faults 140, 142 line, 97
definition, 5, 51–52 investigation via surficial earth pro- Avalanches, 235
detection methods, 50–51 cesses, 136–146
geodetic indicators of, 53 process response models in, 141–146 B
geologic indicators of, 52 rates of, 141–146 Baja California, tectonic activity of, 21–22
geomorphic indicators of, 52–53 research priorities and actions, 17–19, Barbados, strandlines of, 100, 107
in interplate regions, 49 120, 148–152 Basalt flows
in San Francisco Bay area, 157 seismological and paleoseismological dating by, 133–134
in Transverse Ranges, 24 research techniques in, 148–152 see also Lava flows
landform indicators of, 52 time period of analysis, 4, 9–10, 21 Basin and Range province, 127–129, 135,
parameters for estimating earthquake volcanism in context of, 232–233 190, 192, 211
magnitudes, 55 see also Coastal tectonics; Bay of Bothnia, character of, 98
patterns of, 12 Tectonic listings Benioff-Wadati zone, 57–58
related to folding, 63–77 Adirondack Dome, 31, 33, 39 Beryllium-10 dating, 205, 212
secondary ruptures along, 47–48 Afterslip, 32, 165, 166, 171, 173–175 Big Colewa Creek
seismological indicators of, 53–54 Alaska channel profile of, 89
societal implications of, 75–77 crust deformation in, 45 effect of Monroe Uplift on, 89–90
stratigraphic relations along, 10 Gulf of, 111–112, 119 Boeuf River, channel profile of, 89
surface rupture by, 47–48 seismic gaps near, 57 Bogue Homo Creek, effect of Wiggins
sympathetic offsets on, 48 strandlines in, 115 Uplift on, 90–91
trenching across, 152 uplift in, 37, 97, 115, 118–119 Boreholes, 51
Active tectonics Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone, earth- Boso Peninsula, Japan, 200, 202
alluvial river response to, 80–92 quakes along, 58 British Columbia Coast Mountains, uplift
definition, 3, 5 Alluvial fans, 139–140, 141 activity in, 26
evaluation techniques, 3, 9–12, 42, 137– Alluvial rivers
139 drainage pattern disruptions, 81 C
forecasts, 3, 4, 11, 16 response to active tectonics, 80–92 Calderas, 36, 104–105, 234–235
future concerns, 9 see also Channels California
geodetic measurement of, 4, 10, 155–163 Amino acid racemization, 197, 199, 201, active strike-slip faulting in, 141
geomorphic analyses of, 4, 11 206 active-tectonic realms of, 20–26
geomorphic evidence of, 81–85, 136–146 Appalachian Mountains, uplift of, 37, 39 borderland, tectonic activity of, 23
impact on effective use of rivers and Arching, of Gulf Coastal Plain, 38 Coast Ranges, tectonic activity of, 25
canals, 85–92 Ash, volcanic dating, 133, 134, 210 coastline displacement, 107
impacts on society, 12–17 Asthenospheric bumps, 40 Gulf of, tectonic activity of, 21–22
the authoritative version for attribution.
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INDEX 262
seismic monitoring network in, 159 by progressive landform modification, see also Fault displacements
strandlines, 96, 101, 108, 113–114 199, 208 Distributed shear, 41
vertical displacements in, 7 by rock and mineral weathering, 199,
see also Baja California 206–207 E
Canals, impact of active tectonics on, 85, 92 by soil development, 197, 199, 207–208 Earthquakes
Carbon-14, 56–57, 152, 197–202, 203, 213 by tektites, 200 Alaskan (1964), 7, 48, 49, 64, 111–112,
Cascade Range, 26, 57 carbon-14, 56–57, 152, 197–202, 203, 118–119, 171
Channels 213 along San Andreas Fault, 140–141
classification of, 82 coastal area deformation, 203, 206 belts, 30–31
effect of uplift on, 90 control of, 209 Borah Peak, Idaho (1983), 7, 13, 15, 33,
modifications of, 81 correlation methods, 209–210 204, 222–224
pattern changes, 82–85 cosmogenic isotope, 198, 205 Borrego Mountain (1968), 48, 144
profile of, 134 desert environments, 207 caused by quarrying, 67
source of morphologic changes in, 91 episodes of faulting, 200 Charleston, South Carolina (1886), 31,
Chronology fault scarps, 189–193 34, 35, 50, 57, 97, 150
Pleistocene to Holocene, 146 fission-track, 197, 198, 204 Coalinga (1983), 25, 48, 72–73, 76, 160,
see also Varve chronology glaciations, 207 166
Climate, effects of on geomorphic pro- landforms, 126 countermeasures, 15–17
cesses, 8–9, 37, 52, 84 methods, 195–213 deformation cycle, 156
Coastlines morphologic, of fault scarps, 181–193 deformations resulting from, 32–35,
active-tectonic, 98 paleoseismological techniques, 151 149, 155–158
morphology and tectonic setting, 96–98 Pleistocene strandlines, 100–102 differences in, 149
see also Strandlines potassium-argon, 197, 198, 204 Dixie Valley, Nevada (1954), 32, 33,
Columbia River Basalt, radioactive waste prehistoric faults, 156, 197, 200 49, 51, 57, 191
disposal in, 248 problems, 200–202, 203, 212–213 El Asnam, Algeria (1980), 48, 67, 69,
Consequence assessment, 256–258 Quaternary, 52, 135, 205 72, 152, 218–219
Cratons radiometric, 75, 102, 103, 118, 197–205 elapsed time of, 217
earthquakes in, 31 research priorities on, 17 Fort Tejon (1857), 25
North American, 26 sedimentary materials, 205 Ganges flood plain, 64
vertical motions of, 30–32 spanning different time intervals, 210– generation process diagram, 196
Creep, 48, 140, 151, 152, 165–166, 169, 212 ground displacement during, 25
171, 173–174, 185–187 stable isotope, 200 Guatemalan (1976), 48–49
Creepmeters, 7, 10, 53, 169 uranium series, 197, 198, 202–204 hazards, 14, 24, 45–60, 226–228
Crust uranium-trend, 197, 198, 205 Hebgen Lake, Montana (1959), 33
dynamics, studies of, 11 Death Valley, alluvial fans in, 139 Himalayan, 64
extension patterns, 6, 21, 27 Deformation historical records of, 10, 45–46
horizontal displacement of, 167–169 coseismic, 32, 41, 156 Homestead Valley (1979), 166
loadings, 36–37 ground, measurement of, 239 identification of, 150
lower, magma intrusion into, 40 interseismic, 34 Imperial Valley (1979), 171
movements in coastal areas, 104 permanent, 156, 160–162 in cratons, 31
shortening, 6, 27 postseismic, 32 in Upper Indus Basin, 92
vertical displacements of, 7, 103–107, preseismic, 32, 34 Inangahua, New Zealand (1968), 67, 171
112, 169–171 societal impact, 158–160 intraplate, 32–33, 46, 116
see also Hot spots tectonic, 48 Kanto (1703, 1923), 116–117
Crust deformation see also Crust deformation; Lompoc (1981), 75–76
documentation of, 26–27 Earthquakes; magnitude, 33, 35, 49, 54, 55, 216
importance of studies on, 20–21 Faulting/Faults maximum credible and maximum prob-
types, 5–6 Deformation rates able, 215–216
Crustal blocks, see Plates dating by, 199 mechanics of minor movements, 165
irregularities in, 158–160 Murchison (1929), 171
D monitoring, 155–156 Nankai (1946), 109, 161–162
Dams, Auburn thin arch, 12–13, 14, 47, present-day, 156–158 Nankaido (1707), 117
215–216 Dendrochronology, 142, 197, 198, 202 Napier (1931), 171
Dating Desert environments, dating, 207 New Madrid (1811–1812), 14, 16, 31,
annual, 197 Disaster preparedness, advances in, 16–17 35, 50, 59, 85, 87, 150
by basalt flows and volcanic ash depos- Displacements Niigata, Japan (1964), 49
its, 133, 134, 210 glacio-isostatic, 104–106 Oroville, California (1975), 33
by deformation rate, 199 ground, during Fort Tejon earthquake, 25 Parkfield (1966), 25
by deposition rate, 199 horizontal, 167–169 Pleasant Valley (1915), 191
by fossils and artifacts, 200, 210 per event, 217 prehistoric, 11, 149–152
by geomorphic position and incision tectonic, 106–107 recurrence, 9, 15, 56–57, 73, 85, 95,
the authoritative version for attribution.
rate, 199 vertical, 7, 48, 103–107, 112–115, 151, 114, 115–120, 136–137, 142, 144–
by historical records, 197, 198 169–171 145, 161, 200, 217, 224–226
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INDEX 263
San Fernando (1971), 24, 48, 138, 167, evaluation difficulties, 46 recommended research priorities on, 17
171 geometry of, 217 satellite, 53
San Francisco (1906), 12, 156, 157 hazards related to, 47–49 Geodetic monitoring
secondary effects of, 48–49 Holocene deposits in, 52, 144 accuracy, 37, 167–171
size of intraplate, 50 identification of, 150 techniques, 10, 167–177
size relation to fault rupture parameters, lateral movement of, 115 Geologic history, tectonic activity fore-
45–46, 54–55 Lost River, 219–220, 222 casts from, 4, 9
subduction zone, 58 low-shake, 76 Geology
Tabas-e-Golshan, Iran (1978), 48 Meers, 15, 45, 46, 50, 55, 58–59 data base, 216–217
Valentine, Texas (1931), 33, 34 monitoring, 25, 165 real-time, recommended research priori-
West Yellowstone (1959), 184, 188, 191 mountain fronts generated by, 127–129 ties on, 18
Yellowstone Park, Wyoming (1975), 33 North Anatolian, 56, 63, 151, 169, 173 volcanic, of Nevada Test site, 251–253
see also Microearthquakes; Oued Fodda, 217–218 Geomorphic indices
Paleoseismology; patterns of offset vs. time, 212 mountain-front sinuosity, 138–139
Predictions recorded in strandlines, 112–115 stream gradient, 137–138
Elastic rebound theory, 156 recurrence, 49, 52, 56–57, 211 valley width-to-height ratio, 139
Electron spin resonance, 197, 198, 204–205 rupture parameters, 45–46, 54–55 Geomorphic processes
Embayments, geometry of, 130–131 San Andreas, 6, 7, 12, 13, 21, 23, 25, rates of, 7–9, 131–134
En echelon anticlines, 72 27, 30, 39, 48, 51, 136, 138, 140, surficial, 136–146
Engineering projects, cancellations, 12– 144, 149, 150, 151, 157, 158, 165, Geomorphology
14, 47, 215–216 168–170, 173, 175, 200, 220–222 focus of, 11
Epeirogeny, 5–6, 30–32, 37–42 San Jacinto, 144, 170, 174, 211 investigatory techniques of, 136–146
Erosion segmentation, 55, 217–222 recommended research priorities on, 17
cycle of, 126 slip, 165–167 soil, 146
of fault scarps, 152 slip rates, 51–52, 56, 149 studies in, 27
stream valley, 128 Stillwater, 57 tectonic, of escarpments and mountain
Escarpments Superstition Hills, 48 fronts, 125–135, 139–141
drainage divide, 130 thrust, 6, 8, 63, 69, 72, 106, 173 Glaciations, dating of, 206–207
profiles of, 131 Ventura, 69, 70, 75 Global Positioning System, 53, 162–163
see also Fault scarps; vertical movement of, 112–115 Grand Wash Cliffs, 130, 132, 133
Scarps Wasatch, 34, 51, 136, 151, 183, 185, Gravitational field, changes preceding vol-
188, 211, 218, 221 canic eruption, 240
F see also Active faulting/Faults; Gravity
Fault displacements Flexural-slip faults; effects of on geomorphic process rates, 9
frequency of occurrence, 5 Strike-slip faults methods for studying fault zones, 51
lateral, 7 Fennoscandia, postglacial rebound of, 36, Grey-Inangahua Basin, flexural-slip faults
measurement, 10 105 of, 65, 72, 76
relationship between earthquake magni- Flexural-slip faults Ground motion, strong, characteristics
tude and, 55 characteristics, 64–65 and intensity, 47
vertical component of, 113–114 examples of coseismic, 67–68 Gulf Coastal Plain, arching of, 38
Fault scarps Grey-Inangahua Basin, New Zealand,
erosion of, 152 65, 72, 76 H
flexural-slip, 68 related to folding, 48 Hawaii
generation of, 129–131 seismicity of, 75–76 dry-tilt measurement in, 172
gravitational effects on, 9 slip rates of, 146 volcanic activity in, 7–8, 31
hypothetical uplift history of, 126 Ventura Basin, California, 65–66 Hazardous waste, tectonic stability of dis-
identification of, 150 Fold-and-thrust belts posal sites, 92, 247–259
in alluvium, 127 active tectonics of on-land, 73–75, 76 Hazards
Late Quaternary, 48 mechanics of, 64 earthquake, 14, 24, 45–60, 226–228
mapping, 55 Folding/Folds evaluation, 3, 4, 14, 24, 41, 45–60, 151,
morphologic dating and modeling deg- active faults related to, 63–77 215–228, 247–259
radation of, 181–193 expressed by strandlines, 109–112 related to faults, 47–49
morphology of, 11, 142–144 flexural-slip fault relationship to, 48 seismic, trends in geologic analysis,
Reelfoot Lake, 46 importance in tectonic studies, 11 215–228
simple, 189–193 near-surface, 69–70 volcanic, 13, 247–259
Faulting/Faults and Fault systems and related to faulting, 69–73 Henry Mountains, 183–184
zones societal implications of, 75–77 Hillslopes
activity rates of, 54 Fossils, value in dating, 210 character of, 126
Alpine, 63, 149 degradation patterns of, 181–183
bending moment, 68–69, 72, 76 G loosening-limited, 183–185, 188–189,
classification of, 67 Gases, volcanic, 235, 240 191
the authoritative version for attribution.
dating prehistoric, 197, 200 Geodesy profile of, 187
discontinuities in, 55–56 near-field tectonic, 164–177 transport-limited, 183–188, 189, 191–193
earthquake epicentral and hypocentral
distributions of, 53
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INDEX 264
weathering-limited, 184 assemblages, 126, 139–141 effects of uplifts on, 91
see also Slopes dating, 126 history of, 87
Himalaya evaluation of faulted, 144 longitudinal profiles of, 86
greatest earthquakes of, 64 study of active tectonics through, 4, 11 profile through Monroe Uplift, 88
map of southern margin of, 74 types, 125–126 Mississippi Valley
thrust front, profile of, 74 Landslides, 48–49, 92, 150 earthquake potential, 14
Historical records Laser ranging impact of active tectonics on river use,
geodetic monitoring through, 10 satellite, 10, 42, 163 85–91
of earthquakes, 10, 45–46 strain measurement by, 10 Modeling/Models
Holocene two-color, 10 characteristic earthquake, 222–224
deposits, as indicators of fault activity, 52 Lava flows, 234 crustal structure and behavior, 24
deposits, in faults, 144 Level lines, 10, 53, 168 earthquake hazard, 226–228
fault displacements, 13, 15 Leveling, geodetic, 42, 53, 159–161, 166, earthquake recurrence, 56, 224–226
motions, 39 169–171, 175 Hillslope degradation, 185–193
strandlines, 96–99, 102–108, 110–113, Lichenometry, 197, 199 of fault scarps, 181–193
115–120 Liquefaction, 48–49, 150 of fault segments, 55
see also Chronology; Lithospheric plates, see Plates of fold-and-thrust belt mechanics, 64,
Paleoseismology Loess deposits, thermoluminescence dat- 76–77
Hot spots, 39, 41 ing of, 205 Poisson-Exponential, 227
Hudson Bay, character of, 98 Los Gatos Creek, deformation of stream process response, 141–146
Hurricane Cliffs, 130, 135 bed of, 72–73, 160–161 renewal, 228
Hydration Lost River Range, faults along, 13–14 schematic, of fault structure, 57
obsidian, 197, 199, 206 Low-Sun angle photography, 50, 53, 56 seismic deformation cycle, 156
tephra, 197, 199 seismogenic, 47
M snowplow, 64
I Magma time-predictable, 227
India associated with monogenetic volcanic Mojave Desert
active foreland thrust belt of, 73 centers, 249 nontectonic fault slip in, 169
alluvial plain of, 73 feeder systems, 249 pediment surface in, 133
as a rigid indentor, 41 inflation, intraplate, 35–36 Molasse sediments, 74
underthrusting beneath Himalaya, 75 intrusion into lower crust, 40 Monitoring
Indus Valley, impact of active tectonics movements, subsurface, 35 crustal tilt, 171–173
on river use, 85 separation, 40 deformation rates, 155–156
Instruments, geodetic monitoring, 10 volume vs. time plots, 253, 255 dry-tilt method, 172–173
Interferometry, very-long-baseline, 10, 163 Magnetic field, changes preceding vol- faults, 25, 165
Interplate regions, characteristics of, 49 canic eruption, 240–241 geodetic, 10, 17, 37, 164–177
Intraplate deformations Magnetostratigraphy, 73, 75 Long Valley, 36
mechanisms for, 40 Magnitude recurrence of slip-stick faulting, 76
social impact of, 41 maximum moment, of subduction zone San Andreas Fault system, 25
Intraplate movements, 9, 30–42, 45–46, rupture, 58 seismic, of volcanoes, 239
49–50, 55, 59 moment, 54, 149 strain and stress, 18, 53
Intraplate regions scales, 54 stratigraphic, 10–11
seismic hazard evaluation of, 49–50 surface wave, 52 volcanoes, 238–241
Iran see also Earthquake magnitudes see also Instruments
impact of active tectonics on canal use, 85 Mammoth Lakes, intracrustal magmatism Monroe Uplift
strandlines in, 115 in, 36 active tectonics of, 87–90
uplift rate in, 10 Mantle, densification, 40 uplift rates of, 7
Iwo Jima, volcanic uplift of, 104–105 Matuyama Reversed-Polarity Chron, 210 Montague Island, vertical displacement
Mendocino triple junction of, 7, 48
J deformations at, 21, 25, 26 Montalvo Mounds, 72
Japan plate activity at, 6, 20, 26 Morphology, stream-valley, 128–129
active folding in, 66–67 Michigan Basin, 31, 33, 40 Mountain blocks, 127–128
coseismic uplift in, 115–118 Microearthquakes, 149 Mountain fronts
investigation of faulted terraces in, 145 Microplates fault-generated, 127–129
strandlines, 97, 101, 108–110, 113, 115 boundaries, 49 hypothetical uplift history of, 126
stratigraphic record of, 10 collision with major plates, 6 tectonic geomorphology of, 125–135
vertical displacement rates in, 7 domains, fault characteristics of, 49 Mountains, see specific mountains
Microseismicity, determining distribu- Murray River, 81
L tions of, 11–12
Microtopography, 140 N
Lahars, 235
Middle America, population dwelling Nankai Trough, seismic activity of, 161–
the authoritative version for attribution.
Land use planning, 137
Landforms near volcanoes in, 237 162
as indicators of fault activity, 52 Mississippi River Neotectonics, 9, 39
Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line
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INDEX 265
Nevada Test Site Peninsular Ranges, tectonic activity of, 23 Ring of Fire, 30, 233
radioactive waste disposal in, 248 Plate tectonics theory, 30, 49, 233 Rio Grande rift, 35, 36
volcanic geology of, 251–253 Plates Rivers
New Guinea activity along margins of, 5–6 major, in areas of structural instability, 80
coastline tilt of, 109 Asiatic, 6 see also Aluvial rivers;
strandlines, 96, 99–100, 107–109 Australia-India, 119 specific rivers
New Mexico, uplift in, 35 boundaries, 57, 95, 233 Rockfalls, 48
New York, seismicity in, 34–35, 39 boundary forces of, 39
New Zealand collision of, 6, 39 S
block diagram of Giles Creek faulting, 66 convergence, 21, 57–58, 63, 73, 232–233 Salton Trough, 21–22, 166, 169
coseismic uplift in, 119–120 Eurasian, 73, 75, 115, 116 San Francisco Bay area, active faults of,
investigation of faulted terraces in, 145 Indian, 6, 39, 73, 75 157
strandlines, 97, 101, 111–113, 120 Juan de Fuca-Gorda, 5–6, 20, 21, 26, San Gabriel Mountains, application of
see also Grey-Inangahua Basin 57–58, 158 stream-gradient index to, 137–138
North America location of volcanoes relative to, 232–233 Sand blows, liquefaction-related, 57, 150
seismicity of eastern coast, 97 movement of, 6, 7, 10 21, 30 Santa Clara syncline, diagrammatic cross-
southeastern, character of coastline, 97, North American, 5–7, 20–21, 25, 26, 39, section, 66
101 50, 57, 75, 158, 211 Satellite, geodesy, 53
western, historical earthquake records Pacific, 5–7, 20, 21, 25, 26, 30–31, 75, Scarps
of, 10 119, 211 tectonic geomorphology of, 125–135
see also United States Philippine Sea, 161 with simple initial morphology, profile
Nuclear fuel, spent, disposal of, 248 rotation, 23 of, 183
Nuclear reactors sliding past each other, 30 see also Escarpments;
Bodega Bay, 12–13 see also Interplate and Intraplate listings; Fault scarps
GE Vallecitos test, 210 Microplates Sea level
seismic hazards to, 215 Pleistocene changes, 36–37, 95–121
siting, 51, 215 strandlines, 96, 98–102, 104, 106–109, history, 96, 99, 104
111, 113, 115 Sedimentary deposits, use to appraise
O see also Chronology; earthquake hazards, 24
Oakwood Salt Dome, 92 Dating; Seiches, 48–49
Obduction, description, 6 Paleoseismology Seismic gaps, description, 57
Oil exploration, in active fold-and-thrust Porpoise structure, 23, 25 Seismic moment, 54, 149
belts, 76 Postglacial rebound, 30, 32, 36–37, 39, Seismic networks, 4, 54
Oklahoma, fault displacements in, 15 41, 105 Seismic reflection techniques, 51
Oregon Predictions Seismicity
active-tectonic realms of, 21, 22, 26 implications of preseismic deformations global map of, 31
Coast Ranges, tectonic activity of, 26 for, 34 of eastern United States, 50
coastline displacement, 107 seismic event, 4, 7–8, 16–17, 34, 41, 49, of intraplate regions, 49–50
plate activity beneath, 6 57, 118, 136, 142, 144, 169, 249–251 patterns of, 53–54
Orogeny Probabilistic risk assessment, 253–256 resulting from magma inflation, 35
deformational processes of, 5–6 Probability studies, recommended see also Paleoseismicity
examples, 6 research priorities on, 18 Seismographs, 25, 239
Pyroclastic falls and flows, 234 Seismology
P Pyroclastic surge, 235 improved techniques of, 149
Pakistan research techniques in, 148–152
R Seismometer networks, 53, 152
active foreland thrust belt of, 73
Salt Range, 64, 73 Radar imagery, 50 Shivwitz Plateau, 132
Paleomagnetism, 200, 210 Radioactive waste disposal, volcanic haz- Sierra Nevada foothills, earthquake and
Paleoseismicity ard assessment for, 247–259 fault displacement potential of, 13
Holocene, 144 Radioactive waste repository, effect of Sinuosity
Paleoseismology volcanic eruption on, 249–251 mountain front, 8, 128, 137–139
Central Nevada Seismic Belt, 57 Range fronts, characterization, 8 river channel, 82–84, 87, 88–92
earthquake magnitude approximation in, Ranges, see specific ranges Slip
55 Reactivation concept, 39 aseismic, 165
earthquake risk assessment through, 125 Red Mountain, strandline across, 113 coseismic, 114
of San Andreas Fault zone, 56 Research needs dynamically triggered, 166–167, 169,
progress in, 149 coastal tectonics, 120–121 174, 176
recommended research priorities on, 17– in coastal tectonics, 120–121 preseismic, 174
18 in tectonic geomorphology, 135 rates, 51–52, 56, 146, 149, 158, 216,
research techniques in, 148–152 morphologic dating of fault scarps, 193 225–226
on dating, 17 Slopes
the authoritative version for attribution.
Palos Verdes Peninsula, marine strand-
lines of, 95 on probability studies, 18 characterization of, 126–127
Pearl River, effect of Wiggins Uplift on, 91 seismological and paleoseismological, elements of, 143
Pediments, 131, 133 17–18, 151–152
Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Active Tectonics: Impact on Society
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lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as
INDEX 266
equilibrium in, 126–127 analysis of, 11 Volcanoes
evolution of, 127 definition, 21 active, 26
patterns of change of, 127 western conterminous United States, 21– Cascade Range, 26
replacement, 130, 131 26 characteristics of, 233–235
retreat, 130 Tectonics, intraplate, see Intraplate listings deformations associated with, 26
scarp, 142 Tephrochronology, 73, 75, 200, 210 distribution of, 232–233, 236
transport-limited, 127 Thermoluminescence, 197, 198, 204–205 eruptions of, 7–8, 233–235, 238, 241–245
weathering-limited, 127 Thrusting Hawaiian Islands-Emperor Seamount
see also Hillslopes dip-slip, 69 chain, 31
Soils oblique-slip, 69 hazards to radioactive waste disposal,
disturbances be faulting and earth- Tide-gauge records, 95–97, 102, 104–105 247–259
quakes, 152 Tigrus and Euphrates Valley, impact of historical record of, 10
geomorphology, 146 active tectonics on canal use, 85 impact of people, 236–238
Profile Development Index, 207 Tilt location relative to plates, 232–233
Source directivity, 47 along a straight coastline, 109 monitoring, 238–241
Strain leveling to detect, 171–173 Mount St. Helens, 7–8, 235, 239, 244
gauges, 27 of bedrock and river terraces over Ven- public response to, 241–245
meters, 10 tura Avenue Anticline, 146 sociological impacts of, 231–245
rates, 34 of marine strandlines, 107–109 tectonic setting of, 231–245
release, 7–8, 48 rate calculation, 108 vertical displacements by, 104–105
tectonic, 10 Tiltmeters, 10, 134 world distribution of, 232
Strandlines Tomography, 149
depositional, 96, 97 Toppenish Ridge, Washington, bending W
displacement and deformation of, 103– moment faults at, 69, 72 Wasatch Range, 185, 221
120 Transverse Ranges Washington (state)
erosional, 96, 97 active faults in, 24, 149 active tectonic realms of, 21, 22, 26
fault movement recorded in, 112–115 tectonic activity of, 23, 63–64, 65–66, 75 Coast Ranges, tectonic activity of, 26
Holocene, 96–99, 102–108, 110–113, Tremor, volcanic or harmonic, 239 coastline displacement, 107
115–120 Trenching/Trenches plate activity beneath, 6
marine, 95–120 across active faults, 152, 222–224 volcanic activity in, 8
Pleistocene, 96, 98–102, 104, 106–109, exploratory, 51, 69 Wiggins Uplift, active tectonics of, 90–91
111, 113, 115 log of, 222–223 Wrench faulting, 26
Stratigraphy, monitoring tectonic activity Triangulation, 53, 166–168
through, 10–11, 200, 209–210, 213 Trilateration, 10, 53, 156, 158–159, 166, Y
Stream valleys, morphology, 128–129 168–169 Yellowstone National Park, intracrustal
Strike-slip faults Tsunamis, 48–49 magmatism in, 36
disruptions by, 6
landform assemblage characteristic of, U Z
140–141 United States Zagros Mountains, 64
relationship between earthquake magni- central and eastern, earthquake charac-
tude and displacement for, 55 teristics in, 46
simple shear associated with, 142 eastern, seismicity in, 50
vertical displacements of, 151 eastern, vertical motion of, 39
Subduction intraplate stress patterns for, 39
along offshore Peru-Chile trench, 98 investigation of faulted terraces in, 145
character of in northwestern United northwestern, subduction character of,
States, 45, 57–58 57–58
description, 6 western, active fault evaluation in, 46
oblique, 26 western, vertical displacement rates in, 7
of Juan de Fuca plate, 26, 57–58 see also North America
of Pacific Ocean plates, 30 Uplift
volcanic association with, 35, 36 following glacial unloading, 37
zones, earthquake magnitude in, 49 hypothetical history of, 126
Subsidence, 48 of Appalachian Mountains, 37
Subsurface radar profiling, 50 of bedrock and river terraces over
Surveys Ventura Avenue Anticline, 146
aeromagnetic methods, 51 rates, 7, 10–11, 23, 35, 36, 40, 100, 104,
alignment, 53 106, 115–120, 125–126
geodetic, 53, 162–163 strandline production by, 115–120
space-based, 163 theoretical patterns of, 116
surface magnetic method, 51
the authoritative version for attribution.
V
T
Valleys
Taiwan, fold-and-thrust belt of, 64 warping of alluvial terraces in, 81
Tallahala Creek, channel profile of, 90–91 width-to-height ratio, 139
Tectonic activity, see Active tectonics see also Stream valleys
Tectonic processes Varve chronology, 197, 198
rates, 5–9 Ventura Avenue anticline, 7, 23, 75–76,
types, 5–6 146
see also Epeirogeny; Ventura Basin, 65, 73, 138
Folding/Folds; Vermillion Cliffs, 131
Orogeny Viscoelastic relaxation, 32
Tectonic realms
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