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Chapter 8

This document discusses steps for determining, evaluating, and managing risks on projects. It identifies several possible risk factors across project life cycle phases and planning information. Methods are presented for assessing the probability and consequences of risks, developing risk management strategies, and communicating about risks. The key steps outlined are to 1) identify risks, 2) assess their potential effects, 3) develop risk mitigation plans, 4) monitor risks, and 5) inform audiences about risks.

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francis pacaigue
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28 views

Chapter 8

This document discusses steps for determining, evaluating, and managing risks on projects. It identifies several possible risk factors across project life cycle phases and planning information. Methods are presented for assessing the probability and consequences of risks, developing risk management strategies, and communicating about risks. The key steps outlined are to 1) identify risks, 2) assess their potential effects, 3) develop risk mitigation plans, 4) monitor risks, and 5) inform audiences about risks.

Uploaded by

francis pacaigue
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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2020

Dealing with Risk and


Uncertainty
Chapter
8

Presenter: Mary Jayne L. Pentecostes


2020

The larger the project is the


bigger the risk is expected.

Chapter
8 STEPS to determine, evaluate and manage the RISKS:
1. Identify the risks.
2. Assess their potential effect on your project.
3. Develop plans for mitigating the effect of the risks.
4. Monitor the status of your project risks throughout the
project.
2
5. Inform key audiences.
2020 Table 8-1 Possible Risk Factor
Life-Cycle Phase Possible Risk Factor
All Insufficient time
Key information not in
writing
Move to another phase without
completing one or more of the
earlier phases

Chapter Conceive Some background information and


8 plans not in writing
No formal cost-benefit analysis
No formal feasibility study
Unknown originator of project idea

Define Plan prepared by people unfamiliar


with similar projects
Plan not in writing
Missing parts to the plan
All or some part of plan is not
approved by all key audienes
3
Start Plan not prepared by people on
the project team
Plan not reviewed
No effort to establish team idenity
2020
Life-Cycle Phase Possible Risk Factor

Perform Change of primary client’s need


Incomplete information
Inconsistent project-progress
reporting
Reassignment of one or more key
project supporters
Chapter Replacement of team members
8 Change of marketplace or
demands
Changes handled informally, with
consistent analysis on the
overall project

Close Project results not formally


approved by one or more
project drivers
Workers assigned to new projects
4
before completion
2020 Table 8-2 Possible Risk Factors
Planning Information Possible Risk Factors
Project audiences New client
Prior problems with your client
No project champion
Unidentified project audiences
Chapter
8 Project background No conclusive proof that the project can eliminate the problem
Your projects beginning preceded by other completed activities

Project scope Unusully large project


Variety of skills and knowledge required
Different organizational units involved

Project strategy No declared strategy


5
New, untested technology or approach
Project objectives Missing objective(s)
2020
Unclear performance measure
Difficult to quantify performance measure
Missing targets or specificatons

Constraints No identified limitations


Vague constraints

Chapter Assumptions Not clear


8 Risk factors in all assumptions

Work packages Insufficient detailed


Not done by the team members

Roles and responsibilities Not clear

6 Schedule New procedures for part of project


Activities are unfamiliar
2020

Personnel No estimate for actual work activities


No planned work schedules
Chapter
8 Other resources No plans to identify the type , amount, or timing o fnecessary
nonpersonnel resources

Funds No project budget

7
IDENTIFYING RISKS

Product risk Schedule risk Resource risk

2020
Review
Chapter past Brainstorm
8
records of Be
with
problems in specific
8
experts
similar
situations
2020 SCHEMES to describe the chances that a
RISK will OCCUR:

Chapter
*PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCE
8 *CATEGORY RANKING
*ORDINALS RANKING
*RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURENCE

9
RELYING ON OBECTIVE INFO

1 2
3
2020 The more
Consider Consider similar
Chapter
8
previous as many situations,
experience similar the more
10
with similar situations confidence
projects as possible you can have
To INCREASE ACCURACY

• Define the category as clearly as possible


• Consider opinions of others as many as possible
•
QUOTE
Be sure the projects your respondents have worked on are
truly similar to yours
• Don’t allow people to discuss their estimates with each other
before they share them with you
• Let them discuss their reasons for their estimates after they
11 submit to you the initial estimates
2020

Estimating the extent of the


CONSEQUENCES

Chapter
8
Consider the effects of a risk on the total
project not on the portion

Consider the combined effect of related


12 risks
2020

MANAGING RISK

Chapter
8

• Consider the likelihood of a risk, if high


risk, develop a plan
13
2020

DEVELOPING A RISK-MANAGEMENT
Chapter STRATEGY
8
• MINIMIZE THE CHANCES THEY’LL OCCUR
• DEVELOP CONTINGENCIES
• BUY INSURANCE
• TRANSFER THE RISK

14
2020

COMMUNICATING ABOUT RISKS

• EXPLAIN IN DETAIL
Chapter
8 • TELL TO PEOPLE CURRENT CHANCES THAT CERTAIN
RISKS MAY OCCUR, AND HOW THEY CAN REDUCE IT
• ENCOURAGE THEM TO THINK AND TALK ABOUT
RISKS, TO MINIMIZE NEGATIVE EFFECTS
• DOCUMENTING IN WRITING ALL THE INFORMATION
15 ABOUT THE RISK
PREPARING A RISK-
2020

MANAGEMENT PLAN
• RISK FACTOR New client/new project
• RISKS Product, schedule, resources
• ANALYSIS Misunderstanding,
underestimate
Chapter • STRATEGY -Reviewing past
8 -At least 2 team members present in
every meeting with the client
-Always put in writting
-Sharing progress assessments with
the client every two weeks
thoughout the project
THANKS
REFERENCE:

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