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3 - Climate Change

This document discusses climate change science and uncertainties. It defines weather, climate, and global warming, and examines the evidence that recent climate change is human-caused, including increasing greenhouse gas levels and surface temperatures. Effects of climate change are described, as are projections for future climate change under different emissions scenarios. Uncertainties in the climate system are also addressed.

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39 views

3 - Climate Change

This document discusses climate change science and uncertainties. It defines weather, climate, and global warming, and examines the evidence that recent climate change is human-caused, including increasing greenhouse gas levels and surface temperatures. Effects of climate change are described, as are projections for future climate change under different emissions scenarios. Uncertainties in the climate system are also addressed.

Uploaded by

pujan77
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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IU032

Climate Change, Science,


and Uncertainties

March 21, 2019


International School of Urban Science
University of Seoul
Group Discussions

• What is weather? What is climate? What’s different?


• What is the difference between global warming and climate change?
• Is the climate change being observed today a natural or human-caused
phenomenon?
• Has the climate already begun to change, and how do we know?
• What are some effects of global warming?
Weather vs. Climate

• Weather
- the state of the atmosphere at any given time and place
- familiar aspects of weather include temperature, precipitation, clouds,
and wind.
• Climate
- the long-term average of the weather in a given place.
- average temperature and precipitation,
- the type, frequency, duration, and intensity of weather events such as
heat waves, cold spells, storms, floods, and droughts
- average conditions tend to remain stable unless the Earth experiences a
force that can shift the climate
Climate Change

• Identifiable change in the global climate that lasts for an extended period
of time
• Global temperature depends on the balance between sun’s energy
entering and leaving the earth system.
• Causes of Climate Change
- Change in the greenhouse effect
- Variations in the sun’s energy reaching the earth
- Changes in the reflectivity of earth’s atmosphere and surface
Main Drivers of Climate Change

Source: IPCC, 2013


Albedo
• A fraction of the incoming solar radiation (S) is reflected back into space, the rest is
absorbed by the planet. Each planet has a different reflectivity, or albedo (α):
- Earth: α=0.31 (31% reflected, 69% absorbed)
- Mars: α=0.15
- Venus: α=0.59
• Net incoming solar radiation = S(1- α)
Radiative Equilibrium

Radiation adsorbed from sun


=
Radiation emitted by earth

Source: ERBE, Atmospheric Sciences Division, NASA LaRC.


Greenhouse Effect
• Greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere trap some of the
energy emitted from the
earth’s surface.
• It prevent the energy
immediately escaping from the
earth system.
• The greenhouse gases then
reemit this energy in all
directions warming the earth’s
surface and lower atmosphere.
• Average earth temperature:
-18°C  15°C
Source: US EPA
Greenhouse Gases

Nitrous oxide (N ₂O)


Methane (CH₄)
Carbon dioxide (CO₂)

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆)


Water vapor (H ₂O)
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

• The atmospheric concentration


of greenhouse gases has
increased over the past two
centuries, largely due to human-
generated carbon dioxide
emissions from burning fossil
fuels.
• This increase has amplified the
natural greenhouse effect by
trapping more of the energy
emitted by the Earth. This
change causes Earth's surface
temperature to increase. Source: US EPA
Effects of Global Warming

• More heat extremes


• More frequent wildfires
• Longer periods of drought
• Rise in sea level
• Temporary severe cold spell
• Rapid migration of ecological zones
• Shrinking arctic sea ice
• Increasing acidity of the oceans
Causes of Climate Change
• Earth’s orbit: 100,000 yr
• Orientation of the Earth’s axis of rotation: 22.1 ↔ 24.5 (41,000 yr)
• Solar variability: fluctuations in the solar output
• Volcano
• Changes in Albedo
• Changes in greenhouse gases
Development of Capabilities of Observation
Climate Change: How Do We Know?

Source: NASA
Global Surface Temperature Changes:
Natural Change
Greenhouse Gases and Temperature
(Enhanced Greenhouse Effect)

CO2 In 2011:
391 ppm

Source: IPCC, 2007


Variations of deuterium (δD) in antarctic ice
Recent Changes in Climate System:
Surface Temperature

• The globally averaged


combined land and ocean
surface temperature data
as calculated by a linear
trend, show a warming of
0.85°C, over the period
1880 to 2012.

Source: IPCC, 2013


Recent Changes in Climate System:
Surface Temperature

Source: IPCC, 2013


Recent Changes in Climate System:
Precipitation

Source: IPCC, 2013


Recent Changes in Climate System: Cryosphere

Source: IPCC, 2013


Recent Changes in Climate System:
Atmospheric CO₂ (Keeling Curve), Ocean CO₂ & pH

Source: IPCC, 2013


Human Contributions to Global Warming

Source: IPCC, 2014


Future Global Climate Change:
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

• RCP 8.5: High emissions with no policy changes to reduce emissions


• RCP: RCP 6: Intermediate emissions with application of a range of
technologies and strategies for reducing GHG emissions
• RCP 4.5: Intermediate emissions with relatively ambitious emissions
reductions
• RCP 2.6: Low emissions with ambitious emissions reductions
Future Global Climate Change

Source: IPCC, 2013


Future Global Climate Change

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed
1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 . (Source: IPCC 2014)
Future Global Climate Change

Source: IPCC, 2013


Future Global Climate Change

Source: IPCC, 2013


Future Global Climate Change

Source: IPCC, 2013


Future Impacts of Climate Change

• Extreme weather events (Floods, Typhoon, Heat waves,


Drought, Wildfires, Temporary severe cold spell, etc.)
• Reduction in renewable surface water
• Rise in sea level
• Increasing acidity of the oceans
• Health
• Rapid migration of ecological zones
- Species extinction (biodiversity)
- Food security
Regional key risks &
potential for risk reduction
(Source: IPCC, 2014)
Uncertainty

• Do we understand every aspect of the climate process perfectly?


• Can future technologies help mitigate the climate change?
• Can we change our way of getting energy before it is too late?
• Will our global economic and political system be able to respond to
the problem appropriately?
Integrated Framework of Climate Change

Source: IPCC, 2013

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