National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences

Department of Civil Engineering

Master Thesis Proposal

Date: 28.10.2020

Author: Zain Mehmood Rana Supervisor: Dr. Mubashir Aziz

Student ID: 19L1767 E-mail: [email protected]
E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 03249486609
Phone: 03334407695 Co-Supervisor (if any): Dr. Muhammad Abdullah
Specialization: Transportation Engineering

Proposed Topic:

A study of pedestrian environment and behavior in Lahore, Pakistan

Registered in MS Thesis - I: Yes Date of Registration: 13.11.2020

Background:

Being a prime form of movement and considered to be the most sustainable and
environmentally friendly mode, walking is the first means of transport on any journey,
whether by car or by private / public transport. It is because access to the means of
transport itself requires movement, and unless people with disabilities follow their means of
movement. In reality, cities are made up of pedestrians, and their patterns of movement
and their behavior patterns have an impact on their development. However, at the same
time as developing / planning a sustainable green city, several parameters pertaining to
pedestrian movement, behavior and circulation need to be addressed in advance.
Importantly; these parameters to be considered at the planning stage are relative to the
different needs of the social group and the area in which they reside. Inadequate planning
that does not meet the needs of social groups prevailing in cities results in car-dependent
societies resulting in externalities such as congestion, parking problems, casualties, etc. In
developing countries, unprompted growth, lack of planning institutions and enforcement
has further aggravated the situation and problems specifically related to pedestrians have
become chronic. It is because the pedestrian movement is not given due consideration
during the planning and construction process in transportation infrastructure.
The volume of traffic in Lahore has increased sharply over the last decade. This led to
overcrowded roads and packed jams. These jam-packed roads and geometric features of
the road infrastructure have increased the points of conflict between the pedestrian and the

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moving vehicles at or near the intersection.

In 2015, 25 percent of the total road traffic accidents in the metropolitan city of Lahore
involved pedestrians. Almost forty-five thousand crashes took place in the city in 2016.
Seventy percent of the victims of these accidents were unstable, 55 percent were
motorcyclists, bikers and pedestrians, 25 percent were over-speed and 10 percent were
underage and distracted drivers. The Lahore City Traffic Police attribute this high rate of
pedestrian deaths to their unsafe walking behavior, especially at busy intersections. This
study intends to carry out an attempt to understand and investigate the existing side-
walking and road-crossing behavior of pedestrians at intersections in Pakistan's second
most populous city. The study also looked at the conduct of drivers in relation to
pedestrians at intersections. To this end, the data collection of pedestrians and drivers
must be required in order to understand their behavior. We can observe video recordings at
different intersections and differences in side-walking and road-crossing behavior will be
investigated on the basis of gender, age group, neighborhood land-use characteristics and
the presence of a traffic signal at the intersection. Driver behavior with respect to
pedestrians may also be investigated for the same factors, excluding the characteristics of
the neighborhood for land use.

Literature Review:

Road safety literature agrees that safe mobility of pedestrians is associated with human
behavior, general or situational factors, and infrastructure-related factors (Šucha, 2014).
The literature reports that the choice of a crossing point, non-compliance at designated
crossing points, speed of crossing, alcohol consumption by pedestrians and failure to
attend to traffic are factors that could increase the risk of road traffic collisions (Martin,
2006). With regard to the choice of a crossing point, signaled crossings are considered to
be the safest, as drivers are more likely to give way to pedestrians at formal crossings.
Pedestrian collisions not only occur due to negligent behavior on the part of pedestrians,
but also due to poor interaction between pedestrians and drivers. For example, when it
suits them, pedestrians are likely to cross the road in terms of convenience and save time
rather than thinking about the potential safety implications (Martin, 2006). The literature on
communication between pedestrians and drivers and their impact on the safety of
pedestrians informs that the likelihood of a driver giving priority increases if information on
the intention of a pedestrian is increased by means of a combination of different types of
signs. A study concluded that while almost none of the drivers gave priority to a zebra
crossing when the pedestrian just stopped at the sidewalk and looked at the approaching
drivers, 31 percent stopped or slowed down when the pedestrian looked at the driver, put

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his foot on the carriageway, and signaled that he was about to cross (Šucha, 2014).
Road safety literature has also documented the impact of demographic characteristics on
the behavior of pedestrians. It is widely demonstrated that pedestrian collisions involve
more males than females and are proportionately younger than older people. One possible
explanation is that women are less likely to run and cross the street than men and appear
to be at greater risk than older pedestrians (Holland and Hill, 2007). For example, studies
have shown that young people (aged between 17 and 25 years) and especially young
males are more likely to cross the road at unmarked crossings. Similarly, children,
especially adolescents, perform a number of potentially unsafe behaviors (Elliott et al.,
2003). However, in the case of a complex traffic situation, studies have shown that the
behavior of older pedestrians crossing roads can be less safe than their younger
counterparts (Oxley and Day, 1995).
The type of land-use, e.g. shopping or residential, is also found to influence the behavior of
the pedestrian. The likelihood of a crash increases in proportion to the socio-economic
activity in the area (Šucha, 2014). For example, higher risk of pedestrian collisions is
associated with land-use shopping (Summersgill and Layfield, 1996).
In Pakistan, a high proportion of pedestrian deaths due to road accidents are attributed to
poor road markings, including drivers who do not give way to pedestrians, inadequate
pedestrian walkways, and lack of traffic control at many intersections within the city,
intrusion of sidewalks due to commercial activities and placement of garbage and garbage
collection containers. It is argued that not only is the recognition of pedestrian mobility
overlooked in the country, but that, when provided, pedestrians do not make appropriate
use of pedestrian facilities (Batool et al., 2012; Randhawa, 2016; Zia et al., 1999). There
was a decrease of 11 percent in walking tours in Lahore, which was 51 percent in 1999 and
40 percent in 2010 (JICA, 2012).
The city reported 81 percent zero car ownership of households in 2010 and is projected to
be 56 percent in 2030 (JICA, 2012). In the case of a city with such a large percentage of
zero cars owned by households, this decline in walking trips should be considered a
serious concern. Road safety in the city is also deteriorating with a 6.7 percent increase in
traffic fatalities between 2015 and 2016 (Shahzad, 2016). From 1 January to 24 December
2016, traffic authorities reported more than forty-five thousand accidents in the city.
Seventy percent of the victims of these accidents were unstable, 55 percent were
motorcyclists, bikers and pedestrians, 25 percent were over-speeding, and 10 percent were
underage and distracted drivers (Shahzad, 2016).

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Hypotheses:

There are 3 principal hypotheses that will be the core focus in my thesis work which are
given as follows to fully understand the behavior of drivers as well as pedestrian using road
intersection.
Hypothesis #1: Comparison of side-walking and road-crossing behaviors with respect to
gender, age group, land-use of neighborhoods, and presence of traffic signals at the
intersection.
Hypothesis #2: Comparison of the actions of drivers with regard to gender, age group and
the presence of a traffic signal at the intersection.

Methodology:

Methodology for this study involves a composite approach involving a descriptive,

quantitative and quantitative analysis approach. The combination of both subjective and
objective techniques will help to examine the prevailing conditions and to propose the
necessary infrastructure needed to meet the needs of pedestrians. The assessment of the
current situation will be carried out by field visits, consultation meetings and, if any, a
descriptive examination of the available literature. Further assessment will also help to
define the physical description of the existing infrastructure. In the second phase, methods
or analytical tools will be used, i.e. both quantitative and qualitative techniques for
collecting primary information on pedestrian needs and requirements.
Pedestrian count surveys will formulate a quantitative part; whereas the focus group will be
a qualitative part of the methodology. In the next phase, both secondary and primary data
collected will be analyzed and a proposal will be made for the development of infrastructure
facilities. The entire process will be documented in the last phase.

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Time-Frame:

Outline:

The outline of the thesis is a brief description of the main parts of the thesis. It begins with
the Abstract, Introduction, literature overview, objectives, and methodology section of the
outcome, analysis, discussion and conclusions section. There will be seven (07) basic
chapters in my thesis, which will be included in the writing of the thesis. The list is given
below.
1) Abstract
2) Introduction
3) Literature Review
4) Methodology to the results
5) Analysis and Results
6) Findings and Discussion
7) Conclusion

References / Bibliography:

[1] Šucha, M., 2014. Road users' strategies and communication: driver-pedestrian interaction.

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Transp. Res. Arena 2014 Proceedings.

[2] Oxley, J., Fildes, B., Ihsen, E., Charlton, J., Day, R., 1997. “Differences in traffic judgements
between young and old adult pedestrians”. Accident Analysis Prev. 29, 839–847.
[3] Martin, A., 2006. “Factors Influencing Pedestrian Safety: A Literature Review”, p. 106.
[4] Holland, C., Hill, R., 2007. “The effect of age, gender and driver status on pedestrians' intentions
to cross the road in risky situations”. Accident Analysis Prev. 39, 224–237.
[5] Batool, Z., Carsten, O., Jopson, A., 2012. “Road safety issues in Pakistan: a case study of
Lahore”. Transp. Plan. Technol. 35, 31–48.
[6] Elliott, M.A., Armitage, C.J., Baughan, C.J., 2003. “Drivers' compliance with speed limits: an
application of the theory of planned behavior”. J. Appl. Psychol. 88, 964–972.

Important Note:

 The page limit for research proposal is 7-10 pages.

 The formatting style of the proposal should be followed as such (i.e. no changes should be
made in font size/font style/line spacing/page settings, etc.)

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 IEEE citation format should strictly be followed in the literature review and other relevant
sections of the proposal.

________________________
(Author’s Signature)

Approval:

The Graduate Studies Committee in its meeting held on ___________ approved the MS

research proposal of ___________________ titled “___________________________”.

Graduate Studies Committee Members:

Sr. Name Signatures

1. Dr. Javaid Ahmad (HOD) ________________________

2. Dr. Shahid Ali ________________________

3. Dr. Syed Ali Rizwan ________________________

4. Dr. Mubashir Aziz ________________________

5. Dr. Mansoor Ahmed ________________________

6. Dr. Tauqir Ahmed ________________________

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