9/11/2017

Population Growth
• Population:
• Latin word ‘Populus’ meaning people
• in Ecology – Group of organisms of a particular species, which breed
among themselves and have potential to do so and generally occupy a
particular shape
• Population Growth:
• Change in strength of population per unit area at a particular time
Population Growth • Varies
V i from
f time
ti to t time
ti
• Factors – Birth rate, Death rate. Immigration / Emigration
• Population Prediction / Forecasting:
• Essential to assess the use and demand of the resources by the growing
population
Dr. Abhisek Santra
• Strategy development to meet the demand
Associate Professor • Vital for maintaining economic growth rate, innovating proper scientific
Department of Civil Engineering methods and engineering construction so as to avail alternate energy sources
Haldia Institute of Technology without polluting the environment
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Population Growth Cont..... Population Growth Cont.....

• Population Growth Rates: In the beginning, t = 0, the initial size of population is N0

Thus, ln N0 = R * 0 + z
• Exponential Growth
or, z = ln N0
• Logistic Growth
Now putting z = ln N0, the equation becomes
• Exponential Growth: ln Nt = Rt + ln N0
• Rate of change of population α Size (Nt) of population at or, ln Nt – ln N0 = Rt
that
h time
i (t)( ) – ‘J’-shaped
‘J’ h d curve or, ln
l (Nt / N0) = Rt
or,
dNt / dt α Nt
or, dNt / dt = RNt (R = Constant of proportionality)
or, dNt / Nt = Rdt
Integrating both sides

or, ln Nt = Rt + z
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Population Growth Cont..... Population Growth Cont.....

• Doubling Time of Population (td): •World population in 1850 has been estimated to have been
• Time required for population to become double of its initial about 1 billion. It reached 4 billion in 1975. Use the exponential
number (Nt), so that it grows exponentially and growth rate growth rate equation to find the growth rate constant and also
remains constant throughout calculate the doubling time value.
Since
Since for double the population
for double the population (N0 = 1 billion)
or, 4 = 1 x e^125R
or, 125R = ln4
or, or, R = ln4/125 = 0.011
or, (taking natural log) Thus, growth rate constant = 1.1%
Doubling time (td) = 70 / R (%) = 70/1.1 = 63.63 years
or, td = ln2 / R = 0.693 / R = 69.3 / R (%) = 70 / R (%)

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Population Growth Cont..... Population Growth Cont.....

• Half Life Time of Population : • Validity of Exponential Growth :

• Time required for population to become half of its present • Considering td = 70 / R (%) if in 2000 the population of a country is 3
number (Nt), when it decays exponentially and the decay rate billion, then at 2% growth rate it will be 6 billion in 2035 and 48 billion
remains constant throughout in 2140. In 20 doubling times it will be in order of quadrillion (or, >1
person / sq. ft. area)
Since
• This pinpoints the limitation of exponential growth model
for double the ppopulation
p • Also population growth depends on the availability of natural resources
for time t to be t1/2 • With limited natural resources, a species cannot support any population
thus, Nt = N0 / 2 beyond a certain limit
or, Under conditions of similar • Carrying capacity of environment – The upper limit to the no. of
growth and decay rates (R1 =R), individuals that an environment can support
the doubling time and half life • If we assume exponential growth – resources will be consumed quickly
time becomes equal – fossil fuels will vanish rapidly
• From this limitations – Logistic or ‘S’-shaped (Sigmoidal) growth curve
developed

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Population Growth Cont..... Population Growth Cont.....

• Logistic Growth : • Logistic Growth :

• Derived from the following differential equation proposed by the
French mathematician Verhulst

(where N = population size, K = carrying capacity of the

environment, r = logistic growth rate)
environment

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Population Growth Cont..... Population Growth Cont.....

• Logistic Growth : • Logistic Growth :
• Phases –
• a (population grows exponentially – environment is highly suitable •Ecosystem has limited resources – if population grows
for growth) : N << K. Thus, N/K almost 0. So, dN/dt = rN, beyond carrying capacity – resource limit shows adverse
or, dN/dt α N
• b (population increment is relatively rapid than phase ‘a’ – called
effect on population by increasing death rates or reducing
the logarithmic phase – population growth is steady) : N is not much birth rates – Such resistance is called “Environmental
less than K.
K Thus,
Thus dN/dt = Constant Resistance” or “Growth
Resistance Growth Realisation Factor
Factor”
• c (population growth decreases as N approaches K) : (N – K)
becomes smaller and smaller. When N = K, dn/dt = 0 • Factor (1 – N/K) : Environmental Resistance
• d (population saturation value) : r = 0

• If N > K then, (1 – N/K) becomes negative, so dN/dt

becomes negative – thus this factor is responsible for
changing exponential growth curve into logistic growth
curve
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Population Growth Cont..... Population Growth Cont.....

• Maximum Sustainable Yield : • Difference between Exponential and Logistic
Population Growth Models:
•Maximum rate that individuals can be harvested (removed) without
reducing population size
• Correspond to the point on logistic curve where slope is maximum (its
inflection point)
• Setting the derivative of the slope equal to zero, we can find MSY point

Yield = slope = dN/dt = rN(1-N/K)

Setting derivative of the slope = 0 gives
1 – 2N*/K = 0 (N*=Population at MSY point)
or, N* = K/2 (for MSY)
Thus, MSY = (dN/dt)max = r K/2 {1 – (K/2)/K} = rK/4
Putting the value of r = R0 / (1 – N0/K) we get,
(dN/dt)max = {R0 / (1 – N0/K)} * K/4
or, (dN/dt)max = R0K2 / 4(K – N0)
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