Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)

Southeast Asia and Pacific Department

Southeast Asia Division 5
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

1. Basic Information
Country: The Republic of the Philippines
Project name: Post Disaster Stand-by Loan (Phase 2)
Loan Agreement: September 15, 2020

2. Background and Necessity of the Project

(1) Current state and issues of the disaster risk reduction sector in the Republic of the
Philippines and the positioning of this Project
The Republic of the Philippines (hereinafter referred to as “the Philippines”) is
regarded as one of the most disaster-prone countries in Southeast Asia. Since 1990, the
Country has been affected by 565 disasters and consequently suffered a loss totaling
2.3 billion USD (UNDRR, 2019). The majority of the loss has arisen from large-scale
typhoons; Typhoon Yolanda in 2013 brought 6,300 deaths and an economic loss of 12.9
billion USD, which accounted for 4.7% of its GDP. In addition to these natural disaster
risks, the pandemic threat exists in the Philippines. As of September 6, 2020, the
Country’s recorded numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths are 237,365 and 3,875
persons, respectively, which are the highest in Southeast and East Asian regions. The
Philippines is estimated to experience a significant economic loss and IMF accordingly
revised its GDP growth forecast for 2020 for the Philippines from 0.6% (April 2020) to
-3.6% (June 2020).
Under such threats of natural disasters and a public health emergency, the
Government of the Philippines enacted the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Act (Republic Act (RA) No.10121) (hereinafter referred to as the “DRRM Act”) to
introduce a comprehensive approach that covers not only post-disaster measures but
also disaster prevention and disaster risk reduction measures. The DRRM Act defines a
disaster as “a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving
widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which
exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources”
and the “State of Calamity” as a condition involving mass casualty and/or major damages
as a result of the occurrence of natural or human-induced hazard. In recent years, the
Government of the Philippines declared the State of Calamity under the DRRM Act in
response to the Taal volcano eruption in February 2020 and the epidemic of Covid-19 in
March 2020.
The Government of the Philippines also established the “Mandatory Reporting of
Notifiable Diseases and Health Events of Public Health Concern Act” (RA No.11332) to
protect its citizens from threats to public health with effective and efficient surveillance in
April 2019. The Act stipulates that when an infectious disease or public health risk that
may threatens national security, the President shall declare a “State of Public Health
Emergency” and mobilize governmental and nongovernmental agencies to respond to
the threat. In March 2020, the President Duterte declared a “State of Public Health
Emergency” in response to the epidemic of Covid-19.
Based on the DRRM Act, the Government of the Philippines formulated the “National
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan (NDRRMP)” (2012) to enhance national
and local resilience to disasters by clarifying respective roles of stakeholders in reducing
and managing disaster risks. The Government also established the “National Disaster
Risk Financing and Insurance Strategy (hereinafter referred to as “DRFI Strategy”)” in
2015 to develop a disaster financing mechanism that is directly accessible by the central
and local governments as well as individual households. While these plan and strategy
have been formulated as counteracts mainly against natural disasters, the epidemic of
Covid-19 now indicates the necessity to strengthen the capacity to cope with infectious
diseases.
The DRFI Strategy stipulates the use of disaster funds and stand-by loan
arrangements in combination to prepare for the temporal increase in funds after a large-
scale disaster. While securing funds required for recoveries from damages caused by
Typhoon Yolanda (2013) and Mangkhut (2018) via the World Bank’s Risk Management
Development Policy Loan with a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (CAT DDO)
(2011 to 2014), the Second CAT DDO (2015 to 2018), and JICA’s Post Disaster Stand-
by Loan (2014 to 2017), the Government of the Philippines has implemented policy
actions to improve its disaster risk reduction and management capacity to satisfy the
requirements of these projects.
In the above-mentioned background, the Government of the Philippines requested
the Post Disaster Stand-by Loan (Phase 2) (hereinafter referred to as the “Project”) to
prepare for the financial need expected to arise when a natural disaster, an epidemic of
infectious disease, or other large-scale disaster occurred.
(2) Japan and JICA’s cooperation policy, etc. in the disaster risk reduction sector and
the positioning of this Project
In the Country Development Cooperation Policy for the Republic of the Philippines
(April 2018), “Ensuing Human Security for Inclusive Growth” is set as a priority area.
Accordingly, Japan has determined to help the country overcome vulnerabilities to
various risks impacting especially the poor and to stabilize and fortify basis for livelihood
activities. JICA Country Analysis Paper for the Philippines (July 2020) identified the
importance of support for implementing the DRFI Strategy taking account of substandard
practices of disaster risk reduction and management in the Philippines and an increase
of extreme climate due to climate change. The Paper also pointed out, taking Covid-19
into account, the necessity of consideration to provide financial support and technical
assistance to strengthen the Philippines’ capacity to cope with infectious diseases. In
addition, this Project will boost the Philippines’ high-quality growth in terms of
inclusiveness, sustainability, and resilience and contribute to peacebuilding and
stabilization (humanitarian assistance and disaster relief), which is an objective of the
Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP).
(3) Other aid organizations
The board of directors of the World Bank approved the Third-phase Disaster Risk
Management Development Policy Loan (500 million USD) in April 2020. The World Bank
is also developing a development policy loan for strengthening of pandemic
countermeasures.
The Asian Development Bank expects to obtain approval for the Disaster Resilience
Improvement Project (DRIP) (500 million USD), a similar stand-by loan scheme, from its
board of directors in September 2020. A policy matrix will be developed to improve the
Country’s capacity to manage disaster risks and to cope with public health crises, local
governments’ resilience to damages to physical properties caused by disasters and
climatic events, and disaster risk financing.

3. Project Description
(1) Project objective
The objective of this Project is to support quick recovery after natural and health-
related disasters by promoting policy actions on disaster risk reduction and management
and strengthening disaster preparedness by providing quick-disbursing budget support,
thereby contributing to build a resilient society.
(2) Project site / location
The entirely of the Philippines
(3) Project components
In this Project, the executing agency will monitor the Government of Philippines’
policy actions regarding disaster risk reduction and management and infectious diseases
control (see the table below). When the requirement that indicates the occurrence of a
disaster (hereinafter referred to as the “trigger”) is acknowledged and the Department of
Finance (DOF) requested a drawdown of the stand-by loan, JICA will immediately make
a loan to the Government of the Philippines. The trigger shall be (a) the declaration of
State of Calamity under the DRRM Act of the Philippines (hereinafter referred to as “State
of Calamity”) as a result of natural or health-related disaster, or in case of health-related
disaster, (b) the declaration of Public Health Emergency by the President in accordance
with Section 7 of RA 11332, or (c) imposition of an Enhanced Community Quarantine
(ECQ) or Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ) (community quarantine
measures introduced by the Government of the Philippines that are stricter than those of
the Government of Japan under the declaration of state of emergency) in National
Capital Region or in any other highly urbanized area with significant economic impact.
Table Policy actions for disaster risk reduction and infectious disease control
Target Field Prior Actions Expected Actions
(September 2020) (September 2023)
1. Strengthening the policy Based on the “DRRM Act 2010”: 1. Guidelines for regional/local
and institutional framework - Capacity of OCD to support LGUs hazard information use and risk
for Disaster Risk Reduction on Regional and Local DRRM assessment developed.
and Management Plans (RDRRMPs/LDRRMPs) 2. Guidelines for formulation and
planning has been enhanced revision of RDRRMPs/LDRRMPs
Implementing agency: through the activities conducted in based on disaster risk
Office of Civil Defense five pilot areas. information developed, of which
(OCD) - The government has directed all gender mainstreaming and
departments and agencies to use disability considerations are
integrated hazard and risk analysis incorporated.
in physical planning and evidence-
based policy-making through a
cabinet directive in July 2019.
*Republic Act No. 10121 enacted on
May 2010.
2. Strengthening financial The government has established a 1. Development of roadmap for
resilience to natural standing body to formulate and application of risk-based premium
disasters and climate recommend public asset management calculation tool to public asset
change policies. insurance.
*Referendum (DBCC resolution No 2. Development of roadmap for
Implementing agency: 2019-4) application of insurance valuation
Department of Finance, The government has created an inter- system compatible with National
Bureau of Treasury, agency committee to formulate the Asset Registry System at the
Government Service necessary policies, rules and Bureau of the Treasury.
Insurance System regulations for ensuring adequately
insurance of key properties, assets and
other insurable interests.
*Administrative Order (No.4 2017)
3. Strengthening Public The government has enacted 1. Roadmap for strengthening
Health Emergency “Mandatory Reporting of Notifiable national laboratory network are
Preparedness Diseases and Health Events of Public developed.
Health Concern Act” or Republic Act 2. Manuals and training modules
No. 11332 on April 2019. on laboratory management and
Implementing agency:
Department of Health DOH has developed guidelines that biosafety for sub-national
(DOH) support the law: laboratories are developed.
(a) Guidelines for the Inclusion and 3. Capacity of Research Institute
Delisting of Diseases, Syndromes and of Tropical Medicine (RITM) and
Health Events in the List of Notifiable target laboratories in the sub-
Diseases, Syndromes and Health national level on laboratory
Events of Public Health Concern (AO management and biosafety has
No. 2018-0028) been enhanced based on the
(b) Guidelines for the Inclusion of the developed training modules.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
in the List of Notifiable Diseases for
Mandatory Reporting to the DOH (AO
No. 2020-0012)

(4) Estimated project cost

Loan amount: 50,000 million yen
(5) Project implementation period
The period targeted for policy actions by this Project runs to September 2023. The
period targeted for the stand-by loan runs three years after L/A signing. This Project will
be completed when all the amount of stand-by loan is loaned out or the stand-by period
ends. The stand-by period can be extended by three years and a total of four times, or a
total of 15 years.
(6) Project implementation structure
1) Borrower: The Government of the Philippines
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing agency: Department of Finance (hereinafter referred to as “DOF”)
4) Management structure: Progresses of each policy action will be checked by
asking stakeholder agencies to report as required at twice-annual monitoring
meetings held by DOF and JICA, where milestones will be set for the next six
months to check progresses of each policy action and changes or improvements
required will be proposed. DOF will monitor the level of achievement of actions
by stakeholders. Primary implementing organizations for each policy action are
listed in Table of 3. (3).
(7) Coordination and division of roles with other projects and aid organizations
1) Japanese aid activities
Support is being provided to the Government of the Philippines in implementing
policy actions via “Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Capacity Enhancement
Project Phase 2” (technical cooperation, ongoing) for the target field 1 and via
technical cooperation projects being formulated for the target field 2 and 3.
2) Aid activities provided by other aid organizations
The policy actions of the Project are harmonizing with those of the World Bank
and ADB that are agreed with DOF.
(8) Environmental and Social Considerations, Cross-Sectional Matters, and Gender
Categories
1) Environmental and social considerations
(1) Category: C
(2) Reason for categorization: This project is considered to have minimal
adverse impact on the environment as per JICA Guidelines for Environmental
and Social Considerations (released April 2010).
2) Cross-organizational matters
Climate change: The formulation of a guideline for the utilization of local hazard
information, one of the policy actions of this Project, will contribute to “Roll-out of
science-based climate/disaster risk and vulnerability assessment process as the
basis for mainstreaming climate and disaster risks reduction in development plans,
programs and projects” set out in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
prepared by the Government of the Philippines, and will thus contribute to climate
change countermeasures (adaptation measures).
 Consideration for disabilities: During the process of the formulation of the disaster
risk information-based RDRRMP/LDRRMP development guideline, consideration for
persons with disabilities will be integrated (inclusive designing of evacuation places,
support for persons with disabilities in emergencies, etc.)
Infectious disease control: Strengthening of the laboratory network, a policy action
under this Project, will contribute to infectious disease control in general
3) Gender categories: GI (S) (Gender Informed (Significant) Project)
<Activity/ Reason for categorization>
Consideration for gender issues are planned to be integrated in the process of
the formulation of the disaster risk information-based RDRRMP/LDRRMP
development guideline and preparation of the guideline, manual, and training module
for strengthening laboratory network.
(9) Other Special Matters
None.

4. Project Outcomes
(1) Quantitative outcomes
1) Outcomes (operation and impact indicators)
Baseline
Target
Indicator (Actual record of
(September 2023)
September 2020)
2
[Field 1: Strengthening the policy and
(Guidelines for regional/local hazard
institutional framework for Disaster Risk
information use and risk assessment,
Reduction and Management] 0
and formulation and revision of
Number of guidelines developed for
RDRRMPs/LDRRMPs based on disaster
promoting DRRM activities
risk information)
[Field 2: Strengthening financial
resilience to natural disasters and
2
climate change]
(Roadmaps towards the application of a
Number of roadmaps towards the 0
risk-based premium calculation tool and
application of a risk-based premium
an insurance valuation system)
calculation tool and an insurance
valuation system
[Field 3: Strengthening Public Health
Emergency Preparedness]
 Number of roadmaps for
strengthening national laboratory 0 1
network developed
 Number of manuals and training
modules on laboratory management
0 1
and biosafety for laboratory
technicians developed
 Percentage (%) of laboratory
Note)
technicians in the sub-national level xx
0
trained based on the training module

Note) The quantitative target will be agreed at the beginning of the technical cooperation.
(2) Qualitative outcomes
Post-disaster stabilization of the economic basis of the Government of the
Philippines, prompt implementation of rehabilitation projects, recovery and stabilization
of livelihoods of affected people, and resilient society building.

5. Prerequisites and External Conditions

(1) Prerequisites: None
(2) External conditions: None

6. Lessons from Similar Past Projects and Application to this Project

The ex-post evaluation of “Stand-by Loan for Disaster Recovery and Rehabilitation”
for the Philippines (Fiscal 2017) identified, as a lesson learned for DOF, the importance
of facilitating stakeholders’ commitment both at the planning and implementation phases
in order to enable them to successfully implement respective actions listed in the policy
matrix and to monitor their actions effectively. Taking the finding into account, stakeholder
organizations have been encouraged to involve in the project formulation process to
enable DOF to closely coordinate with them. DOF was invited to consultations with
implementing agencies to facilitate mutual understanding.
The ex-post evaluation also concluded, as a lesson learned for JICA, that designing
the policy matrix by taking JICA’s technical cooperation projects into account was the
key component that lead to the achievement of policy actions. Based on this lesson
learned, the policy actions of this Project have been set for fields supported by JICA’s
technical cooperation projects. In the implementation phase, JICA will endeavor to make
stakeholder organizations properly implement respective policy actions.

7. Result of Evaluation
This Project is considered to be consistent with the Philippines’ development policies
as well as the cooperation policies and analyses of the Government of Japan and JICA.
It is also considered to contribute to SDGs Goal 3 (Ensure healthy lives and promote
well-being for all at all ages), Goal 11 (Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe,
resilient and sustainable), and Goal 13 (Take urgent action to combat climate change
and its impacts). Hence, there is a need to provide support for the implementation of this
Project.

8. Plan for Future Evaluation

(1) Indicators to be used in future evaluations
As mentioned in 4.
(2) Future evaluation schedule
Ex-post evaluation is schedule two years after the completion of the project