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Bridge Probability 1

This document discusses probability concepts in the card game Bridge. It covers the number of possible Bridge hands, odds against uncommon hands, prior probabilities of card distributions, and how to combine probabilities for multiple events. It also explains how Bayes' Theorem can be used to calculate posterior probabilities based on new information during gameplay.

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Suvasish Dasgupta
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510 views

Bridge Probability 1

This document discusses probability concepts in the card game Bridge. It covers the number of possible Bridge hands, odds against uncommon hands, prior probabilities of card distributions, and how to combine probabilities for multiple events. It also explains how Bayes' Theorem can be used to calculate posterior probabilities based on new information during gameplay.

Uploaded by

Suvasish Dasgupta
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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BRIDGE AND PROBABILITY

Aims

Bridge
1) Introduction to Bridge

Probability
2) Number of Bridge hands
3) Odds against a Yarborough
4) Prior probabilities: Suit-Splits and Finesse
5) Combining probabilities: Suit-Splits and Finesse
6) Posterior probabilities: Suit-Splits
1) Introduction to Bridge –
The Basics
• Partnership game with 4 players

• 13 cards each

W E

S
Introduction to Bridge
- The Auction

• Bid how many “tricks” you predict you and your partner can make

• Bidding boxes

• “Declarer”, “Dummy” and the “Defenders”

Bidding Box
Introduction to Bridge
- The Play
• “Dummy” hand
• One card played at a time going clockwise
N

• “Trick” : W E

• “Follow suit”
S

• “Trumps”

• Winner begins the next trick


2) Number of Bridge hands
- The Basics
• The number of ways you can receive 13 cards from 52 is:

52 X 51 X ………………….. X 40

possibilities possibilities possibilities


for the 1st card for the 2nd card for the 13th card
Number of Bridge hands
- Combinations
• Order does not matter

• Therefore, divide by 13! (or in general r!)

n X (n-1) X (n-2) X … X (n - r + 1) = nCr = n!


______________________________________________________________________________ ___________________

r! (n- r)! r!

• 52C13 = 52! = 635,013,559,600


____________________

39!13!
3) Odds against a Yarborough
- The Basics
• A Yarborough = A hand containing no card higher than a 9

• Earl of Yarborough

• Number of cards no higher than 9 is:

8 in each suit:

X 4 suits = 32
Odds against a Yarborough
- The Odds
32C13
• P(Yarborough) = ___________________

52C13

• Odds against → P(Ā) Note P(Ā) = complement of A


___________________
= P(not A)
P(A)

• Odds against being dealt a Yarborough are 1827 to 1


4.1) Prior Probabilities
– Suit-split
• Suit split = The division of cards between the 2 defenders in 1 suit

• P(3-3 split) = 6C3 X 20C10 = 0.3553


_________________________________________

26C13

Split Probability

3-3 0.3553

4-2 & 2-4 0.4845

5-1 & 1-5 0.1453

6-0 & 0-6 0.0149


4.2) Prior Probabilities
- Finesse
• When East has the
King, the Finesse
always loses
Dummy
N

W E

Declarer
S
Prior Probabilities
- Finesse
• When East has the • However, when West
King, the Finesse has the King, the
always loses Finesse always wins
Dummy
N

W E

Declarer
S
Prior Probabilities
- Finesse
• When East has the • However, when West
King, the Finesse has the King, the
always loses Finesse always wins
Dummy
N • Therefore the Finesse
has Probability 0.5 of
succeeding
W E

Declarer
S
5) Combining Probabilities
- Intersection and Union
N

W E

Dummy S Declarer

Suit Definite tricks Possible extra tricks


Spades 1 (Ace) 1 (if finesse the Queen)
Hearts 1 (Ace) 0
Diamonds 3 (Ace, King, Queen) 1 (if defenders have a 3-3 split)
Clubs 2 (Ace, King) 0
Total 7 2
Combining Probabilities
- Intersection and Union
• If you bid to make 9 tricks you have to make your 7 definite tricks and both of the
possible extra tricks
• Intersection
P(A  B) = P(A) x P(B) if A and B are independent

• P(9 tricks) = P(“Finesse succeeds”  “3-3 split”)


= P(“Finesse succeeds”) X P (“3-3 split”)
= 0.1777
Combining Probabilities
- Intersection and Union
• If you bid to make 8 tricks you have to make your 7 definite tricks and 1of the
possible extra tricks
• Union
Note if A and B are mutually
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - p (A  B) exclusive P(A  B) = 0

• P(8 tricks) = P(“Finesse succeeds”  “3-3 split”)


= P(“Finesse succeeds”) + P(“3-3 split”)
– ( P(Finesse succeeds”) X P(“3-3 split”) )
= 0.6777
6) Posterior Probabilities
– Suit-splits
• Probabilities change with each piece of new information
• Bayes Theorem: P(A|B) = P(B|A) X P(A)
____________________________________

P(B)

• P(3-3 diamond split | Defenders 2 diamonds each)


= P(Defenders 2 diamonds each | 3-3 diamond split) X P(3-3 diamond split)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

P(Defenders 2 diamonds each)


• Partition Theorem:
P(B) = P(B|A) X P(A) + P(B|(Ā) X P(Ā)
Posterior Probabilities –
Suit-splits
• P(Defenders 2 diamonds each)
= P(Defenders 2 diamonds each | 3-3 split) X P(3-3 split)
+ P(Defenders 2 diamonds each | 4-2 split) X P(4-2 split)
+ P(Defenders 2 diamonds each | 5-1 split) X P(5-1 split)
+ P(Defenders 2 diamonds each | 6-0 split) X P(6-0 split)
= 1 X 0.3553 + 1 X 0.4845 + 0 X 0.1453 + 0 X 0.0149
= 0.8398

• P(3-3 diamond split | Defenders 2 diamonds each) = 1 X 0.3553


___________________________
= 0.4231
0.8398
Summary
I used:
• Combinations for the:
Number of Bridge hands
Odds against a Yarborough
Prior probabilities of Suit-splits
• Intersection and Union for the:
Combined probabilities of Suit-splits and Finesse
• Bayes Theorem and Partition Theorem for the:
Posterior probability of Suit-splits

In my essay I will also use:


• Decision Theory to analyse the Scoring System
• Game Theory to analyse Bridge moves

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