07.tax Burden and Income
07.tax Burden and Income
Abstract
This article explores the effects of taxation system of Pakistan, especially indirect
taxes, on the distribution of wealth between the rich and poor. The purpose is to
determine the tax burden and the resultant income disparities focusing on the poor
segment of the society. Pakistan’s taxation system emerged from the ashes of British
colonial rule and so it absorbed exploitative and iniquitous tendencies. With a large
population living below the taxable threshold, reliance of the government to use
indirect taxation as a mean to raise the tax to GDP ratio reduces the welfare dividend
and compounds income inequality. This produces a cyclic process of economic
inefficiencies and distortions which inadvertently widens the socio-economic gap. This
article also proposes a Tax Revenue Strategy to policy planners to mitigate the effects
of negative economic distortions arising out of weak taxation structure to reduce
income inequalities.
Key Words: Direct and Indirect Taxes, Vertical and Horizontal Equity,
Progressive, Regressive, Distortions
Introduction
T he question of how to widen the tax net has baffled every government as it
always faced difficulty in choosing the appropriate instrument(s) or the
right tax mix to raise revenue. No government can perform its functions
and meet the domestic social, economic and defence needs without a sound
revenue base and the only way to generate sound revenue is through an
effective tax system. In Pakistan, the challenge is exacerbated as people avoid
paying taxes, lack trust in government’s handling of its finances and above all
the bulk of the population resides below the minimum taxable threshold and
hence cannot be optimally taxed. Moreover, the poor class in our society lives in
the “informal sector” where tax collection is difficult, costly and the return is
low due to abject poverty.1 In this situation, the essential question remains as to
what can be the optimal tax mix for revenue generation that doesn’t overtax the
poor or leave the rich under taxed. Gross income inequality amongst the
masses, ineffective service delivery and excessive government expenditures
prohibit cultivation of a conducive tax climate which responds to the needs of
the government and the society.
*
Mr Adnan Zulfiqar Mirza is a graduate of National Security and War Course and Dr Hassan
Jalil Shah is registrar of National Defence University, Islamabad and Dr Tahir Mahmood is
currently serving as Assistant Professor at School of Economics Quaid –i- Azam University,
Islamabad.
Many consider that increase in rates of taxes will enhance the tax to GDP
ratio. Although a convenient option, there are long term ramifications of such
an undertaking as any increase directly impacts the economic activity and the
consumption behavior of the people thereby affecting revenue generation the
policy aims to increase. Also, the size of “shadow” economy in our country is
increasing and the true potential and magnitude of this economic reality is little
known. When imposed, taxes do not discriminate between the rich and poor
but they do enhance the relative income disparities by causing reduction in the
amount of capital in the hands of the consumer. Whenever there is greater
reliance on indirect taxes, the tax burden on the poor class will be more than
the affluent class which leads to uneven distribution of wealth. Aforesaid in
view, there is a need to study the effects of current system of taxation on the
common man and how these can be mitigated through a more equitable tax
system.
There has been no worthwhile research on the issue of vertical and
horizontal equity with regard to Pakistan’s system of taxation that analyzes the
tax burden on the common man. This research is an effort to study the effects of
taxation, both direct and indirect, on the distribution of wealth and the income
disparities arising thereof focusing on the poor segment of the society. It is
hoped that the proposed strategy at the end may provide some insight and food
for thought for policy planners to make the system of taxation more responsive
to the needs of the poverty stricken.
15-20 years were consulted. Video lectures and talks by experts organized in the
National Defence University also provided immense and valuable information
to embellish this work besides providing new vistas for further exploration.
Direct Taxes
40%
Indirect
Taxes
60%
With such a huge share of indirect taxes in the overall “Tax Mix”, the
resultant regression in the tax mechanism is natural which fosters income
inequalities rather than reducing them. Countries with high tax to GDP ratios
adopt a policy of progressive taxation which caters well to address the income
inequalities in the society. Contrarily in Pakistan, the incidence of indirect
taxation directly impacts the entire social structure oppressing the poor and the
affluent alike without discrimination.
Direct Taxes
Direct taxes contribute 40% of total revenue collected by the government.
Income tax alone contributes 28% within which only 4% is collected from
personal income taxes.4 This poor collection leaves the government with little
choice but to levy more number of indirect taxes to address the shortfall.
Indirect Taxes
Developing countries are often challenged by larger segments of poor
population and only a small percentage of the elite or the affable class. Hence,
in such situations indirect taxation emerges as the predominant tool for revenue
generation owing to a very narrow tax base, very high compliance costs and an
unusually large informal sector that is quite difficult to document as well as
luring in into the tax net. In addition, accomplishing a better redistribution of
the tax burden as well as enhancing progressivity become an onerous task. It is
unfortunate that “indirect tax” has become an indispensable tool in the hands of
the government to enhance revenue. In Figure 2, the trend of steady rise in the
scale and magnitude of indirect taxation is clearly visible. Mostly, in our context
indirect taxes include the Sales Tax on consumption, the Federal Excise Duty
(FED), Custom Duty, Petroleum levy etc.
Federal taxes were 92% of the total collections in 2015/16. In the year 2016/17
the revenue collection improved by 8.2% compared to the preceding year. In the
year 2017/18 the revenue collection increased by another 14.1%.5 Sales Tax, a
major indirect tax, has the largest share in the total which is 36% and is the lion
share holder. Income tax is next at 33%. Custom duties and excise duties are at
11% and 5 % respectively. Provincial taxes are about 7% of the total revenue.
Compared with India, the provincial share is very low as Indian states
contribute almost 35% of their total revenue which is quite high. On the
average, almost 60% of the total revenue collected by the government is
received from indirect taxes which is quite a high percentage. Due to the huge
share, it is evident that a very large segment of the population belonging to the
poor class is significantly affected by the same.
Likewise, agriculture holds a share of 20% in our GDP but its contribution in
taxes is barely 1%.6
Figure 3: Share of Major Economic Sectors in GDP (1999–2018)
80
60
40
20
0
Agricultural Sector Industrial Sector Services Sectors
This imbalance diverts heavy investments towards least taxed sectors and
withdrawal or reduction of economic activity in heavily taxed sectors. Thus, a
developing country which is not managing the allocation of its economic
resources well is compromising on the magnitude of revenue collection as well
as retarding the pace of growth. The arising mismatch of resources increases
the tax burden in certain areas and also increases the burden of honest tax
payers as the government will be forced to levy new taxes to make up for the
shortfall induced by an underperforming sector. This act of the government will
further affect the economic efficiency and thus produce an undesirable cycle of
poor economic performance in addition to compounding horizontal and vertical
iniquities.
etc. Complex rules and regulations of taxation, high tax rates, and lack of
confidence on the part of taxpayers on the tax system further complicate it.
Also, a narrow tax base results in a higher tax rate which in turn compels more
people to the folds of undocumented economy. Size of the informal economy in
Pakistan in 2008 ranged between a massive 74 to 91 percent of the formal
economy.9 As per the Labour Force Survey of Pakistan (2010-11), almost 74 per
cent of the non-agricultural labour force is earning livelihoods through the
informal sector, and of the total employed labour force, 40.6 per cent or 21.8
million relied directly on the informal economy for their sustenance.10 A large
informal sector compels the government to seek foreign aid, easy loans and
grants hence pushing the country towards a vicious debt cycle which impacts
the national economy.
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
In the 2nd example (Figure 6), we analyze the market of biscuits, the
demand for which is ‘elastic’. In this case, the new tax reduces the demand by a
significant margin (from 80 to 50 as shown along x axis). As the consumers can
survive without biscuits, therefore, stop buying biscuits and move to other
substitutes. The tax burden is greater on the seller. This forces the supplier to
produce less which may lead to closing of business, job layoffs etc. This results
into other economic inefficiencies in the system.
Figure 6: Tax Incidence – Elastic Demand
Research Findings
Overall, the study has concluded that share of indirect taxes within the
federal and provincial tax codes is quite large and difficult to be dispensed with
at the outset, especially when the government is faced with a huge debt and
balance of payments crisis. However in the long run, for better economic
efficiency, it is vital that as the tax base is widened then correspondingly the
share of indirect taxes be gradually reduced. This will not significantly affect net
revenue collection as the reduction effect will be nullified by the expansion
effect achieved at the tax base. Reduced burden of taxes will propel economic
activity by leaving a larger share of after –tax income in the hands of the
consumers which is vital for boosting aggregate demand and attaining increased
growth. Thus, the hypothesis of the study stands proven that reduction in
percentage of regressive taxes will not reduce the future net revenue collection;
rather it will be conducive to socio—economic well - being of the masses at the
lower level who in turn will expand the tax base, and hence the net revenue,
when they move upwards in the socio-economic ladder.
A few more specific findings of the study include:
a. Pakistan’s taxation system, inherited from the British days, had been
slow to transform and internalize according to our native cultural and
socio-economic needs.
b. The poorer ones pay more “in proportion” than the affluent class in
terms of indirect taxes despite the fact that the richer pay more ‘in
magnitude” for the same type of taxes.
c. Increased distortions in the tax system create economic inefficiencies
and poor service delivery giving rise to inequality and social tensions
creating an imbalance in the society.
d. Higher rates of indirect taxes increase DWL which reduces purchasing
power of common people and enhances income disparities.
e. The benefit provided to the taxpayer in the form of services may be
neutralized or minimized by the accruing DWL in terms of market
inefficiency induced.
Recommendations
Since a new government has assumed the charge at the Centre, the urgency
to implement and sustain a reform agenda in the tax code is the only solution
for better fiscal management. Only an adaptive and responsive tax system can
meet the needs of the globalizing economic environment. In the ensuing paras,
a possible strategy to enhance revenue has been proposed, which provides a
road map to making the tax system more equitable, mitigate effects of income
disparities and achieve better redistribution of wealth:
achieved through the “Ability to Pay Principle’. This implies rich and
poor pay according to the proportion of their incomes and profits.
Progressivity will be achieved when deterrence is effective against
evaders, especially the rich and elite to bring them into the tax net.
Effective intelligence, monitoring and surprise audits are needed to
ascertain wealth and prohibit evasion. FBR must deal with the services
sector with an iron hand as it remains under taxed due to on spot
bribery, underwriting tax obligations and profits whereas most of them
charge hefty amounts from the poor class for the services rendered.
Increased progressivity will reduce share of regressive taxes.
Lowering of tax rates is yet another form of curbing evasion and easing
out the poor class. This should be done in local industry market to
ensure that small markets don’t lose vibrancy. Initially, the government
may lower tax rates by small fractions to incentivize the consumers and
sellers followed by higher reductions, tax concessions etc. This will also
help in taxing a larger segment of people through low rates and help
achieve better, or at the minimum, the same level of revenue being
collected when the rates were higher through a broadened base.
The government should minimize DWL (deadweight loss) arising out
of taxation in every commodity market where the demand is inelastic.
This will help generate a more efficient economic activity as well as
reduce the burden on the consumer. This implies designing a tax
instrument according to market efficiency of each commodity i.e. the
government may impose tax on a wide range of goods and services but
it may have different rates for each.
In order to achieve equitable effects in taxation in the rural domain, the
government may consider bringing landlords with large landholdings
into the tax net. As agriculture remains a soft sector from taxation
point of view, there is a need to gradually reform this area. Presumptive
taxation (tax in advance) can be initiated as a test case for levying tax
on agriculture. One way to do so is to estimate the size of the land, the
productivity of the land and an assessment of the input costs specific to
that area. Once the crop has been harvested, the final liability can be
adjusted to collect revenue. Such measures will reduce the need for
huge subsidies in the agriculture sector and allow the government to
utilize collected revenue on reducing income gaps in the rural sector
through provision of allied services and facilities such as healthcare,
education etc.
Government’s tax policy must be able to sustain and endure internal
pressures from vested groups and pressure tactics especially in policy
formulation and implementation. The introduction of numerous
concessions, tax exemptions providing relief to the affluent create
Conclusion
The inferences drawn from this research ratify the fact that distributional
effect of taxation in our environment has not been optimal due to larger share
of regressive taxation. The existence of an ever growing informal sector and the
pace with which it is expanding must ring alarm bells before it is too late. If this
informal sector is documented, beginning from the larger and more productive
units in the economy, their contribution, albeit slowly but assuredly, is likely to
increase the revenue.
The main objective of the government in Pakistan should be to recalibrate
the existing tax system in a manner that tax reduces economic burden on the
common man and also maximizes the component of social welfare. The
conclusions thus support the notion that decrease in tax rates are likely to
increase the revenue collection rather than the contrary, as widely believed. We
can presume that lowering the tax rates has a positive relationship with
economic behavior of subjects within the state. Also, greater reliance on indirect
taxation will disrupt the vertical equity of the tax system. It is vital, therefore,
that the government should endeavor to evenly distribute the burden of taxes
rather than merely rely on indirect taxes as the sole mean of revenue generation.
Adam Smith reiterated this notion as under,
“The subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support
of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their
respective abilities.”
Endnotes
1
Chaudhry, Imran Sharif, and Farzana Munir. “Determinants of Low Tax Revenue
in Pakistan.” Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 2010, 439–452.
2
Cyan, Musharraf R., Antonios M. Koumpias, and Jorge Martinez-Vazquez. “The
Determinants of Tax Morale in Pakistan.” Journal of Asian Economics 47
(December 1, 2016): 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2016.09.002.
3
“The Poverty Implications of Alternative Tax Reforms: Results from a Numerical
Application to Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Papers. Accessed May 19,
2019. https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/1813-9450-8164.
4
Musharraf R. Cyan and Jorge Martinez- Vazquez, Pakistan’s Enduring Agenda
for Tax Reforms, In Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Musharraf Rasool Cyan, The
Role of Taxation in Pakistan's Revival (Oxford: Oxford University Press,2015).
5
Government of Pakistan, Federal Board of Revenue Year Book 2017-18
(Islamabad: Federal Board of Revenue, 2018).
6
Pakistan GDP Distribution across Economic Sectors 2017 Statistic.” Accessed
January 6, 2019. https://www.statista.com/statistics/383256/pakistan-gdp-
distribution-across-economic-sectors/.
7
Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Musharraf Rasool Cyan, The Role of Taxation in
Pakistan's Revival (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).
8
J.Martinez Vázquez, & M. R. Cyan, Pakistan’s Enduring Agenda for Tax Reforms,
Page 18. In J. Martinez Vázquez, & M. R. Cyan, The Role of Taxation in
Pakistan's Revival. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
9
Qazi, Ghulam Mustafa. n.d. “Business Climate in Pakistan-Challenges and
Remedies,” 113.
10
Tahir, Nadia. “Informal Employment in Pakistan: Survivalist or Structuralist?,”
n.d., 13.
11
Lawson, Max, and Matthew Martin. “The Commitment to Reducing Inequality
Index 2018: A Global Ranking of Governments Based on What They Are Doing
to Tackle the Gap between Rich and Poor.” Development Finance International;
Oxfam, October 9, 2018. https://doi.org/10.21201/2018.3415.