Probability

Definitions and Theorems:

∗ 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
∗ 𝑃(𝑆) = 1
∗ 𝑃(∅) = 0

1- 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

2- 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)/𝑃(𝐵)
3- 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) (𝑖𝑓 𝐴 & 𝐵 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡. )
4- 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0 (𝑖𝑓 𝐴 & 𝐵 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑗𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡. )
5- 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) ; 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ) = 𝑃(𝐴̅ )
Question 1:
Suppose that we have: P( A)  0.4 , P( B)  0.5 , P( A  B)  0.2

1. The probability P( A  B ) is: 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.4 + 0.5 − 0.2 = 0.7
A) 0.7 B) 0.4 C) 0.5 D) 0

2. The probability P( A  BC ) is: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.4 − 0.2 = 0.2

A) 0.51 B) 0.20 C) 0.40 D) 0.60

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.2
3. The probability P( A | B ) is: 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)
= 0.5 = 0.4

A) 0.51 B) 0.40 C) 0.20 D) 0.30

4. The events A and B are: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≟ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) ⟹ 0.2 = 0.4 × 0.5

A) disjoint B) dependent C) equal D) Independent

19
Question 2:
If the events A, B we have: P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.5 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.1 , then:
1) The events A , B are :

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≟ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) ⟹ 0.1 = 0.2 × 0.5

(a)Dependents (b) both are empties (c) Disjoints (d) Independents

2) The probability of A or B is:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.2 + 0.5 − 0.1 = 0.6

(a) 0.5 (b) 5.0 (c) 0.2 (d) 0.6 (e) None is correct

3) If P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4 and that A and B are disjoint, then P(AB) =

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 0 = 0.2 + 0.5 − 0 = 0.7

(a) 0.7 (b) 0.12 (c) 0.6 (d) 0.1 (e) None

4) If P(A) = 0.2 and P(B│A) =0.4 , then P(A ∩ B) =

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = ⟹ 0.4 = ⟹ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.2 × 0.4 = 0.08
𝑃(𝐴) 0.2

(a) 0.6 (b) 0.08 (c) 0.5 (d) 2.0 (e) None is correct

5) Suppose that the probability a patient smokes is 0.20. If the probability that
the patient smokes and has a lung cancer is 0.15, then the probability that
the patient has a lung cancer given that the patient smokes is

𝑃(𝑆) = 0.20 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝐶) = 0.15 𝑃(𝐶|𝑆) =?

𝑃(𝐶∩𝑆) 0.15
𝑃(𝐶|𝑆) = = = 0.75
𝑃(𝑆) 0.20

(a) 0.25 (b) 0.2 (c) 0.75 (d) 1.33 (e) None is correct
20
 Question 3:
Suppose that we have two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 such that,
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.5, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.2.
[1] 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵): 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.4 + 0.5 − 0.2 = 0.7

A 0.1 B 0.9 C 0.7 D 0.8

[2] 𝑃(A𝑐  B): 𝑃(A𝑐  B) = 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.5 − 0.2 = 0.3

A 0.3 B 0.2 C 0.5 D 0.7

[3] 𝑃(A𝑐  Bc ): 𝑃(A𝑐  Bc ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3

A 0.7 B 0.2 C 0.5 D 0.3

[4] 𝑃(A𝑐 ): 𝑃(A𝑐 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 0.4 = 0.6

A 0.4 B 0.6 C 0.1 D 0.9

𝑃(A𝑐  B) 0.3
[5] 𝑃(A𝑐 | B): 𝑃(A𝑐 | B) = 𝑃(𝐵)
= 0.5 = 0.6

A 0.4 B 0.6 C 0.1 D 0.9

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.2
[6] 𝑃(𝐵 | A): 𝑃(𝐵 | A) = 𝑃(𝐴)
= 0.4 = 0.5

A 0.4 B 0.6 C 0.3 D 0.5

[7] The events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are …. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≟ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) ⟹ 0.2 = 0.4 × 0.5

A Exhaustive B Disjoint C Independent D Dependent

21
Question 4:

Following table shows 80 patients classified by sex and blood group.

Sex Blood Group

A B O
Male (M) 25 17 15
Female (F) 11 9 3

1) The probability that a patient selected randomly is a male and has blood
group A is

(a) 25/36 (b) 25/57 (c) 25/80 (d) 52/80 (e) None

2) The probability that a patient selected randomly is a female is

(a) 6/80 (b) 40/80 (c) 22/80 (d) 23/80 (e) None

3) In a certain population, 4% have cancer, 20% are smokers and 2% are

both smokers and have cancer. If a person is chosen at random from the
population, find the probability that the person chosen is a smoker or
has cancer.

𝑃(𝐶) = 0.04 𝑃(𝑆) = 0.20 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝐶) = 0.02 𝑃(𝑆 ∪ 𝐶) =?

𝑃(𝑆 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝑆) − 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝐶)
𝑃(𝑆 ∪ 𝐶) = 0.04 + 0.20 − 0.02 = 0.22

(a) 0.02 (b) 0.24 (c) 0.2 (d) 0.22 (e) None

22
Question 5:
Gender Diabetics (D) Not Diabetic (Dc) TOTAL
Male (M) 72 288 360
Female (F) 48 192 240
TOTAL 120 480 600
Consider the information given in the table above. A person is selected randomly

1. The probability that the person found is male and diabetic is:
72
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐷) = 600 = 0.12

(A) 72 (B) 0.12 (C) 0.60 (D) 0.67

2. The probability that the person found is male or diabetic is:

360 120 72 408
𝑃(𝑀 ∪ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑀) + 𝑃(𝐷) − 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐷) = + − =
600 600 600 600
(A) 0.12 (B) 0.68 (C) 0.60 (D) 0.97

3. The probability that the person found is female is:

240
𝑃(𝐹) = 600 = 0.4

(A) 0.24 (B) 0.12 (C) 0.40 (D) 0.5

4. Suppose we know the person found is a male, the probability that he is
diabetic, is:
𝑃(𝑀∩𝐷) 72/600 72
𝑃(𝐷|𝑀) = = 360/600 = 360 = 0.2
𝑃(𝑀)

(A) 0.2 (B) 0.12 (C) 0.40 (D) 0.68

5. The events M and D are:

72 360 120
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑀) × 𝑃(𝐷) ⟹ = ×
600 600 600

(A) Disjoint (B) Independent (C) mutually exclusive (D) Dependent

23
Question 6:
A group of people is classified by the amount of fruits eaten and the health status:
Fruits Eaten Few Some Many Total
Health Status
(F) (S) (M)
Poor (B) 80 35 20 135
Good (G) 25 110 45 180
Excellent (E) 15 95 75 185
Total 120 240 140 500
If one of these people is randomly chosen give:

5. The event “(eats few fruits) and (has good health)“, is defined as.
A) F  Gc B) FG C) FE D) SE

6. P(B  M) =
A) 0.51 B) 0.0.28 C) 0.27 D) 0.04

7. P(G  S) =
A) 0.48 B) 0.36 C) 0.22 D) 0.62

8. P(Ec) =
A) 0.63 B) 0.37 C) 0.50 D) 1

9. P(G | S) =
A) 0.6111 B) 0.2200 C) 0.4583 D) 0.36

10.P(M | E) =
A) 0.6111 B) 0.2200 C) 0.405 D) 0.36

24
Question 7:
The following table classifies a sample of individuals according to gender and
period (in years) attendance in the college:

Gender
College
Attended Male Female Total
None 12 41 53
Two Years 14 63 77
Three Years 9 49 58
Four Years 7 50 57
Total 42 203 245
Suppose we select an individual at random, then:
1. The probability that the individual is male is:
(A) 0.8286 (B) 0.1714 (C) 0.0490 (D) 0.2857
2. The probability that the individual did not attend college (None) and
female is:
(A) 0.0241 (B) 0.0490 (C) 0.1673 (D) 0.2163
3. The probability that the individual has three year or two year college
attendance is:
(A) 0.551 (B) 0.0939 (C) 0.4571 (D) 0
4. If we pick an individual at random and found that he had three year
college attendance, the probability that the individual is male is:
(A) 0.0367 (B) 0.2143 (C) 0.1552 (D) 0.1714
5. The probability that the individual is not a four year college attendance is:
(A) 0.7673 (B) 0.2327 (C) 0.0286 (D) 0.1429
6. The probability that the individual is a two year college attendance or male
is:
(A) 0.0571 (B) 0.8858 (C) 0.2571 (D) 0.4286
7. The events: the individual is a four year college attendance and male are:
(A) Mutually (B) Independent (C) Dependent (D) None of
exclusive these

25
Question 8:

Blood pressure
Low Medium High
(L) (M) (H)
Has obesity ( B ) 50 150 300

Does not have 250 240 110

obesity (B )
If an individual is selected at random from this group, then the probability
that he/she

1.has obesity or has medium blood pressure is equal to

A) 0.442 B) 0.50 C) 0.725 D) 0.673

2.has low blood pressure given that he/she has obesity is equal to

A) 0.90 B) 0.1 C) 0.66 D) 0.44

26
 Bayes' Theorem, Screening Tests, Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive
Value Positive and Negative

 The predictive value positive:

𝑃(𝐷∩𝑇) 𝑃(𝑇|𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)
𝑃(𝐷|𝑇) = = ̅ )𝑃(𝐷
̅)
𝑃(𝑇) 𝑃(𝑇|𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)+𝑃(𝑇|𝐷

(𝑆𝑒𝑛) × 𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )
=
̅𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )
(𝑆𝑒𝑛) × 𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 ) + (𝑓 +) × 𝑃(𝐷

 The predictive value negative:

̅ ̅ 𝑃(𝑇̅ |𝐷
̅ )𝑃(𝐷
̅)
̅ |𝑇̅) = 𝑃(𝑇∩𝐷) =
𝑃(𝐷 ̅)
𝑃(𝑇 ̅ ̅ ̅ ̅
𝑃(𝑇 |𝐷 )𝑃(𝐷)+𝑃(𝑇 |𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)

(𝑆𝑝𝑒) × 𝑃(𝐷 ̅𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )

=
̅𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 ) + (𝑓 −) × 𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )
(𝑆𝑝𝑒) × 𝑃(𝐷
27
Question 1:
The following table shows the results of a screening test:

Disease confirmed (D) Disease not confirmed ( D )

Positive test (T) 38 10
Negative test ( T ) 5 18

10
1. The probability of false positive of the test is: 28
= 0.3571

A) 0.3571 B) 0.2083 C) 0.7916 D) 0.2173

5
2. The probability of false negative of the test is: 43
= 0.1163

A) 0.3571 B) 0.7826 C) 0.2173 D) 0.1163

38
3. The sensitivity value of the test is: 43
= 0.8837

A) 0.2173 B) 0.8837 C) 0.6429 D) 0.3571

18
4. The specificity value of the test is: = 0.6429
28

A) 0.6429 B) 0.3571 C) 0.2173 D) 0.2535

Suppose it is known that the rate of the disease is 0.113,

5. The predictive value positive of a symptom is: 1 − 0.113 = 0.887

(𝑆𝑒𝑛)× 𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 ) 0.8837 ×0.113
= ̅
(𝑆𝑒𝑛)× 𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )+(𝑓+)×𝑃(𝐷
= 0.8837×0.113+0.3571×0.887 = 0.2397
𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )

A) 0.9797 B) 0.5714 C) 0.2397 D) 0.34591

6. The predictive value negative of a symptom is:

̅
(𝑆𝑝𝑒)× 𝑃(𝐷 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 ) 0.6429 ×0.887
= ̅
= 0.6429 ×0.887+0.1163 ×0.113 = 0.9772
(𝑆𝑝𝑒)× 𝑃(𝐷 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )+(𝑓−)×𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )

A) 0.9775 B) 0.5714 C) 0.2397 D) 0.34591

28
Question 2:

It is known that 40% of the population is diabetic. 330 persons who were
diabetics went through a test where the test confirmed the disease for 288
persons. Among 270 healthy persons, test showed high sugar level for 72
persons. The information obtained is given in the table below.

Test Diabetics (D) Not Diabetic (Dc) TOTAL

Positive ( T ) 288 72 360
Negative ( T ) 42 198 240
TOTAL 330 270 600

288
1. The sensitivity of the test is: = 0.873
330

(A) 0.873 (B) 0.480 (C) 0.733 (D) 0.33

198
2. The specificity of the test is: = 0.733
270

(A) 0.873 (B) 0.330 (C) 0.48 (D) 0.733

72
3. The probability of false positive is: = 0.267
270

(A) 0.1549 (B) 0.127 (C) 0.713 (D) 0.267

4. The predictive probability positive for the disease is:

(𝑆𝑒𝑛)× 𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 ) 0.873 × 0.40

= (𝑆𝑒𝑛)× ̅𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )
= = 0.686
𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )+(𝑓+)×𝑃(𝐷 0.873 × 0.40 +0.267 ×0.60

(A) 0.686 (B) 0.800 (C) 0.480 (D) 0.873

29
Question 3:

The following table shows the results of a screening test evaluation in which a
random sample of 700 subjects with the disease and an independent random
sample of 1300 subjects without the disease participated:

Disease Present Absent

Test result
Positive 500 100
Negative 200 1200

500
1) The sensitivity value of the test is: = 0.7143
700

(A) 0.2649 (B) 0.7143 (C) 0.7538 (D) 0.923

1200
2) The specificity value of the test is: = 0.923
1300

(A) 0.1 (B) 0.7143 (C) 0.9943 (D) 0.923

100
3) The probability of false positive of the test is: = 0.0769
1300

(A) 0.0583 (B) 0.2462 (C) 0.0769 (D) 0.2649

4) If the rate of the disease in the general population is 0.002, then the
predictive value positive of the test is:
(𝑆𝑒𝑛)× 𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 ) 0.7143 × 0.002
= (𝑆𝑒𝑛)× ̅𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )
= = 0.01827
𝑃(𝐷𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 )+(𝑓+)×𝑃(𝐷 0.7143 × 0.002 +0.0769 ×0.998

(A) 0.9748 (B) 0.01827 (C) 0.002 (D) 0.0252

30
 Question 4:

In a study of high blood pressure, 188 persons found positive, of a sample of 200 persons with the
disease subjected to a screening test. While, 27 persons found positive, of an independent sample of
300 persons without the disease subjected to the same screening test. That is,

High Blood Pressure

Test Result Yes 𝐷 No 𝐷 ̅ Total
Positive 𝑇 188 27 215
Negative 𝑇̅ 12 273 285
Total 200 300 500

[1] Given that a person has the disease, the probability of a positive test result, that is, the
"sensitivity" of this test is:

A 0.49 B 0.94 C 0.35 D 0.55

[2] Given that a person does not have the disease, the probability of a negative test result, that
is, the "specificity" of this test is:

A 0.91 B 0.75 C 0.63 D 0.49

[3] The "false negative" results when a test indicates a negative status given that the true status
is positive is:

A 0.01 B 0.15 C 0.21 D 0.06

[4] The "false positive" results when a test indicates a positive status given that the true status is
negative is:

A 0.16 B 0.31 C 0.09 D 0.02

Assuming that 15% of the population under study is known to be with high blood pressure.
[5] Given a positive screening test, what is the probability that the person has the disease? That
is, the "predictive value positive" is:

A 0.22 B 0.65 C 0.93 D 0.70

[6] Given a negative screening test result, what is the probability that the person does not have
the disease? That is, the "predictive value negative" is:

A 0.258 B 0.778 C 0.988 D 0.338

31
Question 5:

Suppose that the ministry of health intends to check the reliability of the central
Diabetic Lab in Riyadh. A sample person with Diabetic disease ( D ) and
another without the disease ( D ) had the Lab tests and the results are given
below:

Present ( D ) Absence ( D )
Positive ( T ) 950 40
Negative ( T ) 25 640
Then:

1. The probability of false negative result is:

(A) 0.0256 (B) 0.9412 (C) 0.9744 (D) 0.0588
2. The probability of false positive result is:
(A) 0.0256 (B) 0.9412 (C) 0.9744 (D) 0.0588
3. The sensitivity of the test is:
(A) 0.0256 (B) 0.9412 (C) 0.9744 (D) 0.0588
4. The specificity of the test is:
(A) 0.0256 (B) 0.9412 (C) 0.9744 (D) 0.0588

Assume that the true percentage of Diabetic patients in Riyadh is 25%.

Then

5. The predictive value positive of the test is:

(A) 0.847 (B) 0.924 (C) 0.991 (D) 0.695
6. The predictive value negative of the test is:
(A) 0.195 (B) 0.982 (C) 0.847 (D) 0.991

32
Question 6:

A Fecal Occult Blood Screen Outcome Test is applied for 875 patients with
bowel cancer. The same test was applied for another sample of 925 without
bowel cancer. Obtained results are shown in the following table:

Present Disease Absent Disease

(D ) ( D)
Test
Positive 850 10
(T)
Test
Negative 25 915
(T)

1. The sensitivity of the test is

A) 0.85 B) 0.971 C) 0.915 D) 0.988

2. The specificity of the test is

A) 0.850 B) 0.250 C) 0.915 D) 0.989

3. The probability of false positive is

A) 0.989 B) 0.011 C) 0.250 D) 0.915

4. The probability of false negative is

A) 0.250 B) 0.971 C) 0.029 D) 0.10

5. If the rate of the disease in the general population is equal to 15%

then the predictive value positive of the test is
A) 0.941 B) 0.995 C) 0.674 D) 0.150

33
 More Exercises

Question 1:
Givens:
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟓, 𝑷(𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟒, 𝑷(𝑪 ∩ 𝑨𝒄 ) = 𝟎. 𝟔,
𝑷(𝑪 ∩ 𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟐, 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟗

(a) What is the probability of 𝑷(𝑪):

𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ) + 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) = 0.6 + 0.2 = 0.8

(b) What is the probability of 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩):

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

⇒ 0.9 = 0.5 + 0.4 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

(c) What is the probability of 𝑷(𝑪 ∣ 𝑨):

𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) 0.2
𝑃(𝐶 ∣ 𝐴) = = = 0.4
𝑃(𝐴) 0.5

(d) What is the probability of 𝑷(𝑩𝒄 ∩ 𝑨𝒄 ):

𝑃(𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐴) = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1

Question 2:
Givens:
𝑷(𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟑, 𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟒

𝑻𝒉𝒆𝒏 𝒇𝒊𝒏𝒅 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = ?

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
⇒ 0.4 =
0.3
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.4 × 0.3 = 0.12
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Question 3:
Givens:

̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟑, 𝑷(𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟒, 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑, 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟖

(1) Are the event A and b independent?

̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1 − 0.88 = 0.12

𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.3 × 0.4 = 0.12

⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
Therefore, A and B are independent.

(2) What is the probability of 𝑷(𝑪 ∣ 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩):

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) 0.03
𝑃(𝐶 ∣ 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = = = 0.25
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 0.12

Question 4:
Givens:
𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ) = 𝟎. 𝟒, 𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑨𝟐 ) = 𝟎. 𝟐, 𝑷(𝑨𝟑 ∣ 𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑨𝟐 ) = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟓

(1) Find the 𝑷(𝑨𝟐 |𝑨𝟏 ):

𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) 0.2
𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐴1 ) = = = 0.5
𝑃(𝐴1 ) 0.4

(2) Find the 𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑨𝟐 ∩ 𝑨𝟑 ):

𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 )
𝑃(𝐴3 ∣ 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) =
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 )

𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 )
0.75 =
0.2

𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = 0.75 × 0.2 = 0.15

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