Earth Magazine June 2016
Earth Magazine June 2016
EARTH
QUAKES IN HAZARD MAPS FAULT IN AMERICA? REVEALS RECURRENCE
June 2016
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EARTH
June 2016 | vol. 61 no. 6 | earthmagazine.org
FEATURES
32
virtually uncharted. | Timothy Oleson
40 | TRAVELS IN GEOLOGY:
Turkey’s Storied Turquoise Coast
Turkey’s Turquoise Coast — where the rugged Taurus
Mountains meet the Mediterranean Sea — owes
its breathtaking scenery to tectonic contortions
that have created a landscape that is both
spectacular and geographically complex. The many
Mediterranean civilizations that have inhabited this
40 coastline left behind an impressive legacy of ruins.
| Terri Cook and Lon Abbott
VOICES
Records dating back to the Vikings describe The authors suggest novel ways to reach and
large rock avalanches into Norwegian fjords share geologic knowledge with constituencies
that set off lethal displacement waves. Today, in your community who may not otherwise be
increased development and tourism are exposed to geology. | Robert and Johanna Titus
exacerbating the risk. | Reginald L. Hermanns
ON THE COVER: Underwater vehicle-mounted multibeam sonar helps scientists map the ocean floor down to
meter-scale resolution. Credit: K. Cantner, AGI
NEWS
16
16 SURPRISE QUAKE AT MOUNT FUJI TRIGGERED BY
RISING GASES
22
17 DOUBLE TROUBLE: VOLCANIC ERUPTION LEADS
TO STRONG EARTHQUAKE EIGHT MONTHS LATER 22 ANCIENT INDONESIAN TOOLS MADE BY
MYSTERIOUS INHABITANTS
18 DATING OF LANDSLIDES AROUND OSO REVEALS
RECURRING PATTERNS 22 UNDERWATER ROMAN MARBLE TRACED TO
GREECE, ITALY AND TURKEY
19 ABOVE OIL SEEPS, PHOTOSYNTHETIC LIFE
FLOURISHES 23 ICE (RE)CAP
DEPARTMENTS
I
t’s become almost cliché to say that
EARTH
we know more about the surface of
Mars and the moon than we do about
the ocean floor of our own planet.
Cliché or not, it’s true to an extent: We have 4220 King Street
higher-resolution surface maps of Mars and Alexandria, VA 22302-1507, USA
Phone: (703)379-2480 Fax: (703)379-7563
the moon than we have of our own seafloor
www.earthmagazine.org
(although we know more about the chem- [email protected]
istry and geology of the seafloor than of the
PUBLISHER
surfaces of those other two bodies). We’ve mapped so little of the ocean bottom at P. Patrick Leahy
meter-scale resolution that, with rounding, it amounts to zero percent, according EXECUTIVE EDITOR
to one source in this month’s feature on seafloor mapping. Think about that: Zero Christopher M. Keane
percent. Granted, more than 70 percent of Earth’s crust is hidden beneath the EDITOR
Megan Sever
sea, but it seems we could do better than that given today’s technologies.
SENIOR EDITOR
Over the last two months, we’ve run two in-depth (pun intended) features on Sara E. Pratt
the seafloor. In May, we ran a complex feature on how magmatism at mid-ocean
NEWS EDITOR
ridges may be related to Earth’s climatic oscillations. This month, EARTH’s News Timothy Oleson
Editor Timothy Oleson brings us a techy look at the latest attempts to map the ROVING CORRESPONDENTS
seafloor in high definition using multibeam sonar, satellites and autonomous Terri Cook
Mary Caperton Morton
underwater vehicles. Let me be the first to tell you: I have learned a lot these last
DESIGNERS
two months! For instance, did you know that the largest mountain range on Earth Nicole Schmidgall
lies beneath the oceans: the mid-ocean ridge system? It makes up 23 percent of Brenna Tobler
Earth’s total surface. And did you know that in Iceland, where the Mid-Atlantic ILLUSTRATOR
Kathleen Cantner
Ridge breaches the ocean’s surface, you can stand inside a rift where two conti-
nents are pulling apart? WEB PRODUCTION
Mary Jo Alfano
I don’t know about you, but standing on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is on my bucket
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list. If oceans aren’t your thing, we have plenty of other great stories this month, John P. Rasanen
including a feature on what some consider America’s most dangerous fault: the
CONTRIBUTORS
Hayward Fault, which runs through the San Francisco Bay Area. And Terri Cook Elizabeth Goldbaum
Rebecca Heisman
and Lon Abbott take us along on another of their family’s adventures, traveling Lucas Joel
along Turkey’s gorgeous Turquoise Coast (now also on my bucket list). Joellen Talbot
Here’s hoping you can knock some sites off your own bucket list this summer, EDITORIAL EXTERNS
Julie Freydlin
and that you bring EARTH along for the ride. Logan Nagel
Abbey Nastan
Lance Newman
CUSTOMER SERVICE
Nia Morgan
CONTRIBUTING EDITORS
Megan Sever Callan Bentley
EARTH Editor (Northern Virginia Community College)
Scott Burns
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T
At Marshall’s Beach south of the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, the Franciscan
M
a relatively new phenomenon in the history work, most still head out to the hinterlands where rocks iddle America is not lot of unanswered questions about how thick in some places, Stein says. Rifts
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A
ll high-latitude coastlines have changed the risk. Today, the Nor-
with pronounced relief are wegian Directorate for Civil Protection
characteristically incised considers a rockslide disaster as the
by deep fjords — carved by fourth-highest risk to Norwegian society,
repeated glacial cycles — reaching far only topped by a pandemic, a long-term
into the mountain landscapes. What is electrical grid failure or a strong earth-
not characteristic of all of these coast- quake in a city.
lines is settlements, as these landscapes In Norway, individual communities
tend to be quite inhospitable, not to are responsible for the safety of their
mention dangerous, thanks to the like- populations, while the Norwegian Water
lihood of rockslides. Norway, however, Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)
with thousands of people living on and is responsible for landslide and flood
visiting its fjordlands, is a different hazard mapping. The Geological Survey
story. In recent years, Norway’s geolog- of Norway (NGU) has also undertaken Florence Magnin is installing tem-
ical community has worked to reduce mapping of large rock slope instabil- perature loggers at 1,400 meters
the risks posed by landslides to fjord- ities across the entire country, due to above Loen Lake on an unstable
land communities. the complexity of geologic conditions slope at Hoggrenningsnibba Moun-
Norwegian fjordlands have been set- favoring and triggering rock slope fail- tain. In the background across the
tled since at least the Bronze Age, with ures, and because displacement waves lake, a rockslide scar can be seen
significant development occurring since do not stop at municipality boundaries. at Ramnefjellet Mountain; it is the
the late 1950s, when oil was discovered The NGU mapping efforts start with the failure surface of two previous rock-
on the Norwegian continental shelf. use of remote sensing data, especially slides that caused displacement
Whole communities sprang up as oil satellite-based InSAR technology, which waves in 1905 and 1936 (with max-
companies moved in and their workers’ has helped reveal unstable rock slopes imum wave runups of 40.5 and
grew prosperous along the fjords. In in high-mountain settings without veg- 74.2 meters), which killed 61 and
some localities along the coast, what etation, and lidar data, which helps in 74 people, respectively.
were small villages only 70 years ago are areas with thick vegetation. Credit: Reginald L. Hermanns
now cities with large harbor facilities, Systematic mapping started in 2007,
airports, hotels, football stadiums and and in nine years, three and a half of medium- to high-risk sites, like unstable
more. In addition, due to its natural the 17 counties with high relief have slopes that, upon collapse, could form
beauty, Norway is a hot spot for Euro- been fully mapped, revealing more than rock avalanches that could crash into
pean tourism. Fjords that boast only 250 unstable rock slopes. The coun- fjords and create displacement waves.
about 100 wintertime residents see tens ties with high relief are being mapped Mitigation measures include every-
of thousands of tourists per day in the in high resolution. Last year, Norway thing from draining rock slopes, which
summer. This sort of fast development, decided it would image the entire coun- stabilizes them — a process that has been
in such a setting, bears risks. try, not just the high relief areas, but at proven effective elsewhere, but which is
In the 20th century, three large rock a lower resolution than in the high relief extremely expensive and challenging due
avalanches dropped into Norwegian areas, relying on data from the Sentinel to many such sites only being reachable
fjords or fjord-lakes, setting off dis- satellites, part of the European Space by helicopter — to emplacing continuous
placement waves tens of meters high Agency’s Copernicus program: Each monitoring networks, including early
and killing dozens of people. Records locality will be over-flown once every warning networks. These installations —
dating back to the Vikings indicate that, six days, allowing for near real-time based on multiple instruments, such as
on average, such disasters occur two observations all year long. tiltmeters, extension meters, microseis-
to four times per century. If the fjords Once mapping reveals that slopes are mic networks and DGNSS (Differential
were undeveloped, this would be merely unstable, the NGU uses a rigorous hazard Global Navigation Satellite System) sta-
a geological curiosity. But the rapid and risk classification system on each tions — are also costly and challenging
development and increase in tourism slope to focus mitigation measures on to build and maintain.
T
he U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
regularly releases National Seismic
Hazard Maps that summarize haz-
ards from potential ground shaking
produced by faults across the country. This
year, for the first time, those maps include not
only natural earthquakes, but also earthquakes
induced by human activities — particularly injec-
tion of wastewater produced during oil and gas
extraction practices. The new maps were released
in March on the USGS website.
The incidence of induced quakes has increased
dramatically since 2010, with the central U.S. The new USGS seismic hazard maps show the
experiencing more than 1,000 earthquakes above forecast likelihoods that damaging shaking
magnitude 3 in 2015, up from roughly 24 such from natural earthquakes will occur in the west-
quakes per year between 1973 and 2008. To date, ern U.S. (left), or from natural or induced earth-
the largest induced event was a magnitude-5.6 quakes in the central or eastern U.S. (right).
quake recorded in 2011 near Prague, Okla., which Credit: U.S. Geological Survey
was linked to several active wastewater injection
wells nearby. On its own, hydraulic fracturing, or fracking process as natural earthquakes,” he said. “When we look at
— commonly used to help liberate gas and oil trapped in the seismograms, there’s nothing we’ve found to distinguish
underground rock formations — is thought to only rarely whether they were triggered naturally or induced. Obviously,
trigger earthquakes above magnitude 3. this is a critical question and an area of very active research.”
The 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps did not consider A clearer picture will require better seismic data, “with
induced earthquakes in its forecasts. The quakes’ inclusion in more seismometers on the ground to record even the small-
2016 highlights the evolving understanding of induced quakes, est events,” Rubinstein said. “And we need better data from
as more detailed seismic data have allowed researchers to link industry, including injection volumes, injection pressures, and
earthquakes in time and space to fluid-injection practices, information about where they’re injecting and when.”
particularly in Oklahoma. “I don’t think there is any debate Access to industrial data is limited; the U.S. Environmental
within the scientific community that wastewater injection Protection Agency only requires that petroleum companies
causes earthquakes,” said Justin Rubinstein, deputy chief of release their injection data on an annual basis. “For us to
the Induced Seismicity Project at USGS in Menlo Park, Calif., advance our scientific modeling, we really need more infor-
in a press conference accompanying the maps’ release. mation, more often,” Rubinstein said. “Ideally, we’d like to
Overall, inclusion of induced earthquakes in the new seis- get daily reports.”
mic hazard maps shows a significantly increased likelihood Efforts to map the location and geometries of active faults
of damaging earthquakes occurring in parts of the central near injection well sites have been more effective, with state
and eastern U.S., potentially affecting more than 7 million geologic agencies working with USGS to produce updated
people in six states (Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, fault maps. “These maps have been instrumental in linking
Oklahoma and Texas). “In a few portions of the central and earthquakes to active injection wells to the point that we are
eastern U.S., the chance of damage from induced and natural certain these induced earthquakes are directly related to the
earthquakes is similar to the hazard from natural earthquakes petroleum process,” Petersen said.
in high-hazard areas of California,” said Mark Petersen, chief In addition to including induced seismicity for the first
of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project, at the time, the new models also forecast the potential for ground
press conference. shaking in the calendar year 2016, the shortest time frame yet
Despite scientists’ improved capabilities in identifying for a USGS seismic hazard map. The maps typically forecast
induced earthquakes based on their timing and location, shaking potential over 50-year periods. The shorter time frame
distinguishing them from naturally triggered events still reflects the tendency of induced earthquake activity to rap-
presents a challenge, Rubinstein said. “As far as we can tell, idly increase or decrease over time with wastewater injection
induced earthquakes are produced through the same slip activity. The map will need to be updated more frequently now
that it includes induced quakes, especially as new regulations injection practices have led to an immediate and sustained
and restrictions concerning wastewater disposal come into reduction in induced seismicity. “The data are still coming
play, Petersen said. in … but it does seem that better regulation of fluid injection
In parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas, new regulations does lead to a decrease in seismicity in areas,” Rubinstein said.
and restrictions enacted in the last few years on wastewater Mary Caperton Morton
A
new study shows that giant As floating icebergs melt, they release processes. In the study, published in
icebergs floating in the iron and other nutrients stored in the Nature Geoscience, scientists tracked
Southern Ocean around ice, boosting phytoplankton growth in dozens of icebergs that were longer than
Antarctica may be playing their wake. Phytoplankton are formi- 18 kilometers; these behemoths may be
a larger role in carbon sequestration dable agents of carbon sequestration, responsible for up to 20 percent of the
and Earth’s global carbon cycle than taking up carbon dioxide through photo- total carbon sequestered in the Southern
previously thought. synthesis and storing it in their calcium Ocean, Bigg’s team estimated.
By studying satellite images of the carbonate shells. When the microorgan- The new study sheds light on how
Southern Ocean taken between 2003 isms die — or after they are consumed Earth’s carbon cycle might be affected in
and 2013, Grant Bigg of the University and subsequently excreted by whales the future, as massive icebergs continue
of Sheffield in England and colleagues and other sea life — they sink to the to calve off of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. “If
found that drifting icebergs left a trail seafloor, where much of the carbon is giant iceberg calving increases this cen-
of enhanced phytoplankton activity at stored long-term in marine sediments. tury as expected, this negative feedback
the ocean surface for as long as a month The Southern Ocean is thought to on the carbon cycle may become more
after they passed. The resulting plank- be responsible for about 10 percent of important than we previously thought,”
ton blooms could stretch for hundreds the ocean’s total carbon sequestration Bigg said in a statement.
of kilometers. through both biological and chemical Mary Caperton Morton
A
slow-moving portion of the Alaska-Aleutian Mega Thick sand deposits sepa-
thrust Fault near Alaska’s Dutch Harbor appears rated by dark bands of soil
more capable of generating sizable tsunamis than offered evidence of six tsu-
previously thought, according to a new study. namis in the last 1,700 years
Researchers led by Robert Witter of the U.S. Geological at Stardust Bay on Alaska’s
Survey dug and cored into the ground at dozens of sites at Sedanka Island.
Stardust Bay on Sedanka Island. Within a few meters of the Credit: Richard Koehler
surface, they found distinct sheets of marine sand left by half
a dozen past tsunamis up to about 800 meters inland and “creeping.” Creeping portions of faults, where seismic stress
15 meters above sea level. Radiocarbon dating revealed that is gradually released as two plates move slowly and contin-
the oldest of the six layers was deposited about 1,700 years uously past each other, are typically thought to pose smaller
ago, and that the events occurred every 300 to 340 years on earthquake and tsunami hazards than locked portions.
average. The most recent deposit was likely left by the 1957 But the study shows that this area has experienced frequent,
magnitude-8.6 Andreanof Islands earthquake, which struck large tsunamis in the past. The mechanisms of how these past
to the west of Stardust Bay and also carried large drift logs events were triggered — this fault segment may have previ-
far inland, they reported in Geophysical Research Letters. ously been locked, or the tsunamis could have been caused
Unlike the locked fault segments immediately to the east by submarine landslides, for example — are unknown, but
and west — which last ruptured in 1946 and 1957, respectively Witter and colleagues noted that the findings should prompt
— the roughly 400-kilometer-long stretch of the Alaska-Aleu- re-evaluations of tsunami hazards faced by coastal commu-
tian Megathrust Fault extending from just southwest of nities around the Pacific Rim and in Hawaii.
Sedanka Island to the northeast is known from GPS data to be Timothy Oleson
T
he occasional excursion to Ground-penetrating radar data, in
Death Valley or mineralog- map view, indicates dozens of likely
ical study of bloodstone burials at Holy Mother of the Rosary
notwithstanding, geoscien- Cemetery in Cheektowaga, N.Y., in
tists don’t often delve into the macabre an area where only a handful of grave
in the course of their work. But when markers were visible on the surface.
the administrators of two cemeteries in Credit: Kevin Williams
western New York came calling in 2014,
researchers from Buffalo State College
ended up using their geophysical field
skills to hunt for centuries-old graves.
Grass-covered and mostly free of
tombstones or other markers, several
plots at Oakwood Cemetery in Niagara
Falls and Holy Mother of the Rosary
Cemetery in Cheektowaga, just outside
of Buffalo, appeared on the surface to
be devoid of burials. The cemeteries
were interested in whether the plots
could be used for future interments, but Kevin Williams (left) and Trevor Jen-
first wanted to confirm that the ground nings conduct a ground-penetrat-
below wasn’t already occupied — ideally ing radar survey at a cemetery in
without digging to check. western New York.
“With a lot of cemeteries, they could Credit: courtesy of Kevin Williams
just go back into their records and The administrators at Holy Mother
see if there were burials there,” says boulders or other objects buried in the were “kind of shocked” when they saw
Kevin Williams, a geologist at Buffalo soil, Williams says. But adding in the the results, Williams says, “but shocked
State. But both Oakwood and Holy third dimension, parallel to the ground in a good way.” Now, the cemeteries can
Mother of the Rosary “had lost their surface, improved the view substantially. update their records to mark spaces that
records in the early 1900s. So … they With this perspective, many of the reflec- are or are not empty. Unfortunately,
weren’t sure if [the grassy plots] were tions appeared cigar-shaped — about GPR doesn’t help uncover the identities
actually empty or not,” he says. what you would expect from human of those buried in the unmarked sites,
In summer 2014, Williams and Trevor burials. “You can also look at the orien- although Williams says differences in
Jennings, an undergraduate at Buffalo tations and spacing [of the reflections], the sizes and spacing of reflections offer
State, spent four days at each cemetery and that improves your confidence in clues as to whether graves hold adults
collecting three-dimensional ground your interpretation,” Williams adds. or children.
penetrating radar (GPR). The technique, In one 820-square-meter parcel at The cemetery visits have also offered
which has been employed on occasion Holy Mother of the Rosary Cemetery, student learning and outreach oppor-
to detect unmarked gravesites, entailed where just five grave markers were vis- tunities. While Williams and Jennings
carefully walking a wheeled radar unit ible, Williams reported at the annual collected GPR data, his colleague at Buf-
along grids of transects. The radar signal meeting of the Geological Society of falo State, anthropologist Lisa Anselmi,
reflects off interfaces between materi- America (GSA) last fall in Baltimore led students from the college’s archae-
als or layers of different density — say, that he and Jennings were “confident” ological field school through hands-on
between disturbed and compacted soil, of 99 burial sites, labeling dozens of training in surveying and record-keeping
or between soil and a casket — providing others as “likely” or “possible” burials methods. And when the team has been
rough images of what’s below the surface. as well. It’s not clear what became of at the cemeteries, Williams says, people
The pair found numerous indica- the rest of the markers, but some were have also “come out to see what we’re
tions of potential burials. Just looking probably wooden crosses or plaques that doing, and we’re able to educate them
at two-dimensional depth profiles from deteriorated over the years, while others about the equipment and the earth sci-
their GPR data, they saw reflections may have been buried, Williams noted ence side of things.”
similar to those you’d expect from in his talk at GSA. Timothy Oleson
T
he Carboniferous Period is famous for sup-
plying Earth with an abundance of coal
deposits. According to one hypothesis, the
formation of all this coal is explained by a proposed
60-million-year gap, or lag, between the spread of
the forests globally about 360 million years ago and
the rise of wood-eating microbes and fungi that
could break down tough plant matter. But a new
study refutes this idea, instead attributing the Car-
boniferous’ copious coal to the consolidation of the The majority of the world’s coal dates to the Carbon-
iferous Period.
supercontinent Pangea. Credit: Mary Caperton Morton
When the “evolutionary In the new study, Boyce that’s hundreds of millions depositories for wet organic
lag” hypothesis was first pro- and his colleagues surveyed of years old, finding signs of plant matter, which was bur-
posed in the 1990s, “some in Carboniferous coal samples life — whether from plants, ied, compressed and cooked
the scientific community were from around North America bacteria, fungi, algae, insects over geologic time to form
really enamored of it,” says and found that lignin was not or other animals — can be coal. Similar conditions likely
Kevin Boyce, a geobiologist the dominant plant constit- tricky, he says, but “there’s also produced coal deposits
at Stanford University and uent preserved in the coal. plenty of evidence for fungi during the Mesozoic Era, and
an author of the new study, Many samples were com- in Carboniferous coals if you the Paleocene and Eocene
published in Proceedings posed mainly of lycopsids, know where to look.” epochs, often in conjunction
of the National Academy of an ancient group of plants Boyce says his team’s with mountain-building epi-
Sciences. “Despite plenty of that had little lignin in their findings lend support to an sodes such as the formation
evidence that the story doesn’t cell walls. The researchers alternate hypothesis: one that of the Rocky Mountains.
add up, it has refused to die.” also found that coals high credits the abundance of coal This tectonic- and cli-
The evolutionary lag in lignin did not necessarily formed during the Carbon- mate-driven explanation
hypothesis hinges on the date to times when larger vol- iferous to a combination of for Carboniferous coals has
amount of lignin — a class umes of coal were produced, wet climate conditions and been around for a while,
of tough cell wall polymers further suggesting that lignin basin-forming tectonics that Boyce says, but the new
that lend strength to plant tis- content was not a substantial prevailed during the assem- results make the case for it
sue and are more resistant to control on coal formation. bly of Pangea more than even stronger. “If you look
degradation than other plant In addition to the 300 million years ago. at the stratigraphic distri-
components — contained in prominent role that the “To form coal you need bution of coal over geologic
trees and plants during the evolutionary lag hypothesis two basic conditions: wet time, it’s clear that fungi
Carboniferous. Most species attributes to lignin in form- tropics and a hole to bury aren’t controlling accu-
of modern trees contain large ing Carboniferous coals, the organic matter in for a long mulation rates,” because
amounts of lignin, and if the hypothesis also suggests that period of time,” Boyce says. periods of coal formation
same were true of ancient fungi are rare or absent in During the formation of come and go throughout
trees before microbes and the coals, says James Hower, Pangea, collisions between the geologic record. But, he
fungi evolved to break it a sedimentary geologist at continents raised mountain says, coal accumulation pat-
down, the lignin would have the University of Kentucky ranges while downwarp- terns make “a lot of sense in
provided a huge source of who was not involved in the ing adjacent crust, which terms of wet climates and
carbon that could be con- new study. But that’s just created massive basins. basins opening.”
verted to coal. not the case, he says. In coal These basins became ideal Mary Caperton Morton
O
n March 15, 2011, four meanwhile, isotopic analysis of hot seismic monitoring networks. “Even
days after the magnitude-9 spring waters sampled from boreholes at active volcanoes, [the underlying]
Tohoku megathrust earth- around the volcano tested whether the local geological structure is rarely stud-
quake and tsunami struck water — and the gases in it — derived ied to discern” how seismicity could be
Japan, a magnitude-5.9 earthquake from near the deep magma chamber or remotely induced, he says.
shook the southern flank of Mount Fuji. a shallow aquifer. When it comes to remote triggering
Seismicity has been rare at the volcano “We found a mechanically weak zone of earthquakes, proving causality can be
since its last eruption in 1707, leading [within the volcano] that is apparently difficult, says David Hill, a seismologist
many researchers to suspect that the Fuji susceptible to remote seismic trigger- with the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo
quake — which hit about 300 kilome- ing,” Aizawa says. This weak zone, a Park, Calif., who was not involved in the
ters southwest of the megaquake — was northwest-trending fault zone sur- new research. “We always have to ask: Is
remotely triggered by the Tohoku event. rounding the hypocenter of the Fuji it really triggering or just coincidence?”
In a new study, scientists looking at quake, was identified by high electrical he says. “The evidence they have all
the volcano’s underlying structure and conductivity in the researchers’ mag- points to the same process: a deep source
plumbing have offered a potential mech- netotelluric survey. Meanwhile, the of magmatic gases, which then migrate
anism for how Tohoku’s shaking could isotopic analysis revealed high levels up, increasing the pressure [in the fault
have touched off the Fuji earthquake: of magma-sourced gases like helium zone near Fuji] and setting off a quake.
through rising gas-rich fluids released and carbon dioxide in the groundwa- I think they have a pretty good case.”
from the magma chamber beneath ter. “With the results of the isotopic Fuji is an ideal place to study the
the volcano. analysis, we interpret this electrically poorly understood phenomenon
“Seismicity at Mount Fuji has been conductive zone … as a fracture zone of remote triggering because it is so
very low for 20 years, and volcanolo- that allows magmatic gas to move well monitored, Hill says. This study
gists were shocked by the quake,” says upward through the groundwater net- identifies some intriguing structural
Koki Aizawa, a geophysicist at the Uni- work,” he says. Seismic waves from the features underground, many of which
versity of Tokyo and Kyushu University Tohoku quake may have kickstarted an are similar to “other volcanic systems
in Japan and lead author of the new upwelling of gas-rich fluids and bubbles in earthquake-prone landscapes, such
study, published in Geology. “We were from the volcano’s magma chamber as Mammoth Mountain [in California].”
really surprised and worried about an along this fractured pathway, leading Since 2011, Mount Fuji has remained
eruption because the hypocenter [of to an increase in pore pressure in the characteristically quiet, but Japanese
the Fuji quake] was located above the fault zone, which ultimately set off the geoscientists keep a close watch on the
magma chamber.” Fuji earthquake, the team wrote. volcano, which lies 100 kilometers south-
To study the trigger mechanisms for Remote triggering by both distant and west of Tokyo. “This work highlights the
the Mount Fuji temblor, Aizawa and local earthquakes has been observed at possibility that future eruptions could
colleagues surveyed the plumbing and other volcanoes, most often in highly break out along this newly recognized
groundwater system surrounding the active volcanic systems. “Mount Fuji weak zone,” Hill says. “A better under-
volcano in detail using magnetotelluric is unique in that the remote triggering standing of the plumbing system under
resistivity and isotopic analyses. The occurred at a very quiet volcano,” Aizawa the volcano will enhance our ability to
magnetotelluric method relied on local says. The study presents a rarely seen make more useful predictions about
variations in Earth’s natural electromag- perspective on subvolcanic structure, future hazards.”
netic field to image subsurface structure; one that was aided by Japan’s dense Mary Caperton Morton
I
n January 2002, Nyiragongo Volcano erupted
in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, kill-
ing more than 100 people. Eight months later
and 19 kilometers to the south, a magnitude-6.2
earthquake shook the Lake Kivu region, partially
destroying the town of Kalehe. Now, scientists have
determined that the two events were linked, and their
results highlight a newly observed trigger for strong
earthquakes near active volcanoes.
“When you have two Dike formation has been The deadly January 2002 eruption of the Nyiragongo
events strike the same area known to trigger microseis- Volcano in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
within a few months of each micity at other volcanoes, also triggered a damaging earthquake in October
other, you have to wonder if such as during the Bardar- 2002 near Lake Kivu.
they’re linked in some way,” bunga eruption in Iceland in Credit: Christelle Wauthier/Penn State
says Christelle Wauthier, a 2014 and 2015, Wauthier says.
geophysicist at Penn State “At Bardarbunga, you could to trigger the earthquake in fail. We don’t yet know why it
University and lead author follow the propagation of the October is unknown. took eight months.”
of the new study published dike by tracking the micro- The timing of these events Even with a better under-
in Geochemistry, Geophys- seismicity, but the quakes is one of the most interest- standing of the timeline of
ics, Geosystems. were very small in magni- ing aspects of this study, says events, it’s not likely this
Wauthier and colleagues tude. [Lake Kivu] is one of the Tim Wright, a geoscientist kind of study will help pre-
used remote sensing radar first [places] that we have a at the University of Leeds dict when earthquakes might
data to analyze the shape link between a big earthquake in England, who was not occur in this kind of situation,
of the ground surface and magma intrusion.” involved in the new study. Wright says. “I don’t think
between Nyiragongo and To be sure the volca- “The seismic studies give us this information can be used
Lake Kivu before and after nic dike formation and the a lot of detailed timing infor- for its predictive power, but it
both the eruption and the earthquake weren’t just a mation about this series of can help improve models and
earthquake. Based on the coincidence, Wauthier and events. We know there was an tell us something about the
observed ground deforma- colleagues calculated how the eruption, closely followed by probabilities of fault failure
tion, they inferred that a dike intrusion would have a dike intrusion, and we know in these situations.”
19-kilometer-long dike intru- affected stress on faults in a big earthquake happened That may ultimately
sion, running between the the region. After identifying eight months later. So what improve hazard profiles for
volcano and the epicenter of the fault that slipped during was happening in that win- communities located near
the earthquake, had formed. the October 2002 earth- dow between the intrusion the East African Rift, which
Dike intrusions are common quake, along the border of and the earthquake?” runs for thousands of kilome-
in this part of the world, the East African Rift system, Wauthier says timing is ters through nine countries
where the East African Rift they found that the stresses difficult to pin down in the in East Africa, Wauthier
system is creating an exten- generated by the intruding case of triggered events. “The says. “Next,” she says, “we
sional tectonic environment. dike as it moved through the reason for the time interval plan to look at some other
As Earth’s crust is pulled crust could have pushed the between the dike intrusion magnitude-5 events that
apart by extensional forces, fault to near failure. The dike and the earthquake is an open were recorded along the rift
magma rises to the surface, intruded in January, soon question. The dike put stress in Tanzania to see if they’re
forming vertical magmatic after the eruption, but why on the fault and then some related to dike intrusions.”
intrusions called dikes. it took another eight months later perturbation caused it to Mary Caperton Morton
O
n March 22, 2014, after a Rowan and Headache Creek landslides,
period of heavy rain, a hill- just downstream and upstream of the
side near the town of Oso, 2014 event, respectively. They found that
Wash., collapsed, send- the Rowan Landslide — approximately
ing 7.6 million cubic meters of mud five times the size of the Oso slide —
and debris across the North Fork of occurred between 300 and 700 years Sean LaHusen points to buried
the Stillaguamish River, destroying a ago, and the Headache Creek Landslide debris in a landslide deposit that
rural neighborhood and killing 43 peo- is about 6,000 years old. predates the 2014 disaster on the
ple. The slide took Oso residents by Then, with dates for three area slides, North Fork of the Stillaguamish River.
surprise, but scientists say the event the team used lidar data to create what’s Credit: Alison Duvall/University of
was not altogether unexpected, as evi- called a roughness curve for the 22 other Washington
dence for dozens of past landslides can slides along the 6-kilometer section of
be found throughout the Stillaguamish the valley studied. Roughness curves are simultaneously, such as during a big
River Valley. New research suggests that commonly used to identify landslides earthquake, he says. This would help
large slides have occurred in the Oso in a landscape. But they may also be “test the validity of their assumption that
vicinity even more frequently than pre- used to date adjacent slides, LaHusen all landslides begin with the same degree
viously suspected. says, as newer landslides tend to have of surface roughness,” which “under-
During the last ice age, about rougher surfaces, which then smooth out pins” the whole study, Iverson says,.
16,000 years ago, the Cordilleran Ice over time due to erosion. The technique Knowing the recurrence rate for
Sheet extended from Canada into Wash- allowed the team to determine approx- landslides helps inform future hazard
ington’s Puget Sound. The ice sheet imate dates for the remaining slides in assessments, but it doesn’t help geosci-
dammed many of the rivers flowing west the valley without having to radiocarbon entists predict when the next slide might
out of the Cascade Mountains, building date each one. occur, LaHusen says. The team did find
up massive deposits of fine clay and The researchers found that many of evidence, however, for a pattern that
silt particles more than 200 meters the Stillaguamish slides were younger might provide clues as to where the next
thick in what is now the Stillaguamish than expected, less than 2,000 years slide could take place.
River Valley. old, meaning that landslides have been “There appears to be a close interac-
“This is a setup for landslides: a occurring more frequently in recent tion between the location of the river and
lot of inherently unstable and imper- times, perhaps as often as every 140 years landslides,” LaHusen says. As the river
meable material in a climate that gets on average instead of every 500 years. erodes laterally into the glacial material,
a lot of rain,” says Sean LaHusen, a “That’s a significant difference in recur- it destabilizes [valley] walls, leading to
geomorphologist at the University of rence rates, which are important when slides. Landslides of sufficient volume in
Washington and lead author of the new establishing hazard assessments for this turn block the course of the river, forcing
study published in Geology. valley,” LaHusen says. it to the other side of the valley. The river
Lidar studies conducted before and “This is the first time that a team starts “eroding the opposite side of the
after the 2014 Oso slide revealed 25 land- has used surface roughness as a dating valley, triggering a landslide on that side,”
slides up and down the Stillaguamish technique,” even though the technique and creating an alternating pattern.
River Valley. The river is known to have has been used a lot to identify landslides LaHusen says a team led by
begun cutting the valley through the and distinguish them from surrounding Adam Booth at Portland State University
glacial sediments roughly 12,000 years terrain, says Richard Iverson, a hydrol- plans to expand their study through-
ago, suggesting an average recurrence ogist with the U.S. Geological Survey in out the entire 25-kilometer-long river
rate of about 500 years based on the Vancouver, Wash., who was not involved valley, which shows signs of more than
25 landslides. in the new study. However, he says, 200 slides, to look at patterns in how
“But nobody knew how old any of the the surface roughness technique needs the landscape is evolving. “Do landslides
old slides were,” LaHusen says. To get an more testing to establish its validity as cluster in certain places? Or occur at
age for the valley’s landslides, LaHusen an absolute dating tool. certain intervals? These are patterns
and colleagues, including Alison Duvall, The next step should be to test you can only tease out when you look at
also at the University of Washington, the technique in a different location a larger area.”
started by dating plant material in the where a lot of landslides have occurred Mary Caperton Morton
T
he direct effects of oil and gas phytoplankton in ocean surface waters
releases in the ocean are typi- during a shipboard survey of previously
cally negative — as in the case recognized seeps. The biggest impact on
of 2010’s Deepwater Hori- phytoplankton communities “was seen a
zon oil well disaster, which devastated few hundred feet deep in the water col-
marine ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico. umn, at the point where phytoplankton
But scientists have now found that when have enough light from above to still
natural oil and gas seeps upwell toward grow, and are receiving the most nutri-
the ocean’s surface, they can also carry ents rising from below,” according to a Researchers found that phyto-
nutrients such as nitrates and nitrites press release accompanying the paper, plankton abundances in the Gulf
from the seafloor that feed communi- published in Nature Geoscience. Specif- of Mexico were higher in the water
ties of phytoplankton, which flourish ically, the team found that chlorophyll column above naturally occurring
as a result. concentrations above seeps were roughly oil and gas seeps than in nearby
Nigel D’souza, a postdoctoral twice as high as over nonseep sites. areas not above seeps.
researcher at Columbia University It is not yet known which phytoplank- Credit: NASA
who is now at Georgia Tech, and his ton species are benefiting most from the
colleagues spotted the effects of the seeps, or if some kinds of phytoplankton observations in the Gulf of Mexico prob-
seeps on phytoplankton abundance are also harmed by the oil. Still, “given ably reflect a worldwide phenomenon,”
while monitoring the fluorescence of the global abundance and distribution D’souza and his colleagues wrote.
chlorophyll compounds produced by of offshore hydrocarbon seeps, these Lucas Joel
Battelle to take over NEON Severe bleaching hits mean number of tornadoes per out-
The National Science Foundation Great Barrier Reef break and the number of outbreaks
announced that it has selected Aerial surveys over much of the north- per year.
Battelle Memorial Institute to take ern portion of the Great Barrier Reef Tippett and Cohen, Nature Communica-
over its troubled National Ecological off Australia in March revealed an tions, February 2016
Observatory Network (NEON), which unprecedented scale of bleaching,
has experienced delays and budget far outpacing large-scale bleaching
“Pregnant” T. rex helps
overruns while under construction. events in 1998 and 2002, according
National Science Foundation Special to Australia’s National Coral Bleach- researchers tell dinosaur
Announcement, March 2016 ing Taskforce. Only four of more than gender
500 reefs viewed showed no sign of Scientists have long struggled with
bleaching, while most were under- discerning male from female dino-
Jupiter’s red color may
going severe bleaching. saurs just from fossilized bones. But
come from irradiated sulfur Australian Research Council Centre of in a new study, researchers have
Jupiter’s Great Red Spot, an enor- Excellence for Coral Reef Studies Media identified a type of reproductive tis-
mous persistent atmospheric storm, Release, March 2016 sue called medullary bone — today
may have cosmic radiation to thank found only in female birds just before
for some of its famous coloration. or during egg laying — in a Tyranno-
Extreme tornado
Researchers found that when they saurus rex femur. The finding suggests
irradiated ammonium hydrosulfide outbreaks growing more the presence of the tissue could help
— thought to be a component in common determine the gender of other fossil
Jovian clouds — with high-energy Large tornado outbreaks — extreme specimens, and “gives us a window
protons, the resulting chemical weather events that can last up to into the evolution of egg laying in
byproducts absorbed near-ultravi- three days and spawn hundreds of modern birds,” the lead author said
olet and bluer visible wavelengths funnel clouds across multiple states in a press release.
of light, leaving redder wavelengths — have grown more frequent and Schweitzer et al., Scientific Reports, March
to be reflected. more severe since 1954, accord- 2016; North Carolina State University Press
Loeffler et al., Icarus, February 2016 ing to a new study looking at the Release
E
arth’s stratigraphic record amount of sediment that settled in the Straub and his colleagues were par-
offers a patchwork diary of how delta, and the level of the model ocean ticularly interested in studying sea-level
different parts of the planet surface in the basin. During experiments fluctuations brought on by Milankovitch
have formed and changed over in which sea level was raised at a con- Cycles driven by variations in Earth’s
time. Some of the most extensive pieces stant rate, for instance, they observed orbit and axis, which contribute sub-
of the stratigraphic record are found “incredibly vibrant … dynamics that stantially to the planet’s glacial cycles.
in deltas, making them ideal places to were happening with the delta,” says The study found that during icehouse
look for long-term chronicles of Earth’s Kyle Straub, a sedimentologist at Tulane conditions, when continental-scale gla-
history, as well as clues to future changes University and a co-author of the study. ciers grow and shrink, the range of the
to our coastal landscapes. Stream channels jumped around, mov- resulting sea-level fluctuations, which
The stratigraphy of deltas, which ing to new locations and adding their varied from tens of meters to more
form where rivers empty into the ocean, own story to changes in the model strati- than 100 meters, was large enough to
is primarily controlled by fluctuations graphic record brought by the rising and be recorded in the stratigraphic records
in sea level. When sea level rises and lowering sea level. of almost all deltas. During greenhouse
shorelines move inland, for example, The goal of the work, Straub says, is conditions, however, when there were
the layers of sediment deposited in a to distinguish records of sea-level vari- no continental-scale ice sheets and sea-
delta may change from sands and plant ations caused by larger environmental level fluctuations were relatively small,
roots washed down rivers to mud and changes outside the delta from changes large deltas mostly did not record sea-
shells more characteristic of deeper caused by a delta’s internal activity. level changes while small deltas typically
marine environments. But internal Sea levels have naturally fluctuated in did. The researchers concluded that the
processes in deltas, such as the shift- the past — rising and falling by millime- larger deltas did not record the smaller
ing paths of different stream channels, ters over periods of days, up to hundreds sea-level changes because they experi-
muddle records of sea-level fluctuations of meters over hundreds of millions of enced more internal activity over larger
caused by external events like glacia- years. Short-period sea-level fluctua- areas and longer timescales that over-
tions, complicating efforts to interpret tions are primarily driven by shifting printed the signal of sea-level change.
those records. In a new study published atmospheric conditions, such as storms The delta’s internal activity, including
in Geology, researchers using physi- over deltas; longer-period fluctuations variations in channel size and location,
cal models to imitate natural deltaic can be caused by widespread glaciation can leave imprints on the stratigraphic
processes have shed new light on how or the breakup or assembly of super- record that cannot be separated from
and when scientists can confidently use continents. “Earth has done countless imprints left by the sea-level fluctua-
deltaic stratigraphic records to glean natural experiments for us,” says Chris tions, the authors say.
insights into Earth history. Paola, a sedimentologist at the Univer- The study provides guidelines
The team constructed model river sity of Minnesota who was not involved for understanding how the size of an
deltas out of sand-, silt- and clay-sized with the study. And this study “tells ancient delta system relates to the scale
sediment grains in an experimental us something about how to read,” or of sea-level fluctuations that can be con-
basin in a laboratory. The setup allowed sometimes not to read, the stratigraphic fidently interpreted from that system,
them to control the amount of water record based on those experiments, says Elizabeth Hajek, a sedimentolo-
that flowed into and out of the delta, the Paola says. gist at Penn State University who was
not involved in the study. For instance, This study “is an exciting example of meters below sea level — any change in
during greenhouse conditions, a small how we’re starting to take the sedi- sea level is going to cause a big problem,”
delta system like the Rio Grande Delta mentary record … and treat it much he says.
will likely preserve evidence of sea-level more quantitatively.” Gaining confidence in interpreting
change, whereas a larger delta system Learning how deltas responded to past sea-level changes in deltas is import-
like the Mississippi Delta will not record past sea-level fluctuations should also ant for preparing for future changes,
that same change. help researchers forecast potential Hajek adds. “Our landscapes and our
These physical experiments are use- impacts from future fluctuations in sea coastlines are going to be changing with
ful for demonstrating, in a measureable level, Straub says. “When you live only climate change, and we’re sort of heading
way, what happens over long times- a meter or two above sea level — or in into uncharted territory,” she says.
cales in Earth’s history, Hajek says. some locations in New Orleans, several Elizabeth Goldbaum
I
t’s easy to anecdotally pin environ- cores with accounts of social upheaval
mental changes and their societal recorded in church documents.
impacts on shifting climates. But The results show how climate change
when scientists and historians and societal forces influence each other,
came together to look at environmental Mensing says. After being left unde-
changes through the warm Medieval Cli- veloped by the Romans, and by the
mate Anomaly and cold Little Ice Age in Ostrogoths who succeeded them, the
Rieti, Italy, they found that the real story forested Rieti Basin was converted into
of climate and social change is much grassland and pasture between A.D. 870
more complex — and interesting. and 925. Rather than being closely tied
Rieti is a wetland-filled valley in to climate, this transformation occurred Researchers combined written
the mountains north of Rome that has before the height of the warm Medieval historical records housed in the
undergone a series of environmental Climate Anomaly, driven by the arrival Abbey of Farfa and Rieti Cathe-
shifts since it was first settled in the of the Lombards and new trends toward dral, seen here, with environmental
Iron Age almost three millennia ago, large, intensely farmed monastic estates. records from sediment and pollen
according to written historical records Then, starting in the late 14th cen- to see how the landscape of Ita-
from the region. Scott Mensing, a paleo- tury, cooler, wetter conditions during ly’s Rieti Valley changed through
ecologist at the University of Nevada the Little Ice Age, combined with depop- medieval times.
and lead author of a new study in the ulation caused by the plague, resulted Credit: Alessandro Antonelli, CC BY 3.0
journal Anthropocene looking into the in the plain being largely abandoned,
region’s past, wanted to see how physical and it reverted to swampland and for- to build a new channel that drained the
evidence of past environmental changes est. These conditions “caused people valley once and for all.
would compare to the written records. to abandon the land, and it returned to “Studies like this are important for
He and his colleagues collected sed- forest remarkably quickly. Within 50 or understanding societal responses to cli-
iment cores from one of the valley’s 60 years, you had forest back in an area mate change, and they provide a wake-up
modern remnant lakes, then dated the that was probably all pasture before call to the fact that humans have been
sediments and analyzed the pollen to that,” Mensing says. “The speed of these impacted by climate change in the past,
reconstruct local plant populations over transitions really surprised me.” even within single human life spans,”
time. They also recruited local histori- It was advances in hydrologic engi- says Elizabeth Thomas of the University
ans who could read medieval Italian to neering, not the return of a more at Buffalo, who was not involved in the
analyze archives of historical documents amenable climate, which eventually study. “It’s also interesting to note that
kept at the valley’s Farfa Abbey and the allowed the valley to be returned to cul- societies can learn, adapt and engineer
Rieti Cathedral. Thus, Mensing’s team tivation: In 1596, near the height of the solutions to changing environments,”
matched the changes in local vegeta- Little Ice Age, Pope Clemente VII com- she says.
tion recorded by pollen in the sediment missioned architect Giovanni Fontana Rebecca Heisman
T
he island of Sulawesi is one 194,000 and 118,000 years ago, which
link in a chain of islands substantially predates indications from
between mainland Asia and studies of limestone-encrusted rock art
Australia, and was likely an panels found on Sulawesi and attributed
important stepping stone in human to modern humans. These stone artifacts were found
dispersal from Eurasia through Ocea- Despite the rich stone tool record scattered on the ground near Talepu
nia to Australia. Previous research has uncovered at Sulawesi, the team, led by Hill on the island of Sulawesi, and
placed modern humans on Sulawesi as Gerrit van den Bergh of the University of date to at least 118,000 years ago.
early as 40,000 years ago, but scientists Wollongong in Australia, did not find any Credit: Erick Setiabudi
have now dated a set of stone tools to human remains, leaving the identity of
at least 118,000 years ago, suggesting the toolmakers a mystery. Reporting their Given the predominant flow of ocean
humans occupied the island far earlier findings in Nature, the team proposed currents through the island network of
than thought. three candidates for Sulawesi’s early Indonesia, “we speculate that the most
Excavations conducted on Sulawesi occupation based on fossils found on likely points of origin for the Sulawesi
between 2007 and 2012 uncovered four other islands: Homo floresiensis, known colonizers are Borneo to the west and
new early hominid sites and hundreds to be on Flores roughly 190,000 years ago; the Philippines to the north, with the
of lithic tools, including stone cores, Homo erectus, which appeared on Java implication being that other islands in
choppers and flakes. Uranium dating of 1.5 million years ago; or the enigmatic the region harbor undiscovered records
the soils containing the artifacts estab- Denisovans, who could have reached of archaic hominins,” the team wrote.
lished an age range for the site between Indonesia before modern humans. Mary Caperton Morton
F
rom the first century B.C. to the third century A.D.,
the city of Baiae, located on the west coast of Italy,
near Naples, was the preferred summer home of
Roman emperors, including Augustus and Nero. The
once-grand city now lies under more than 5 meters of water
due to coastal subsidence, and is preserved as the Underwater
Archaeological Park of Baiae. Researchers have now traced the
opulent city’s white marble floors to some of the most famous
quarries in Italy, Greece and Turkey.
Scientists led by Michela Ricca of the University of Cal-
abria in Italy took 50 samples from different marble floors
and entryways throughout the submerged city. The samples Scientists take the plunge underwater to analyze
were then studied using microscopy, X-ray diffraction, mass one of the most valuable materials used to construct
spectrometry and isotopic analyses. The unique characteristics affluent Roman villas: white marble.
of each sample, such as manganese content, crystal size, and Credit: courtesy of Michela Ricca et al.
carbon and oxygen isotopes, were then compared to known
samples of white marble from ancient quarries. the best ornamental marble of that time period,” said co-author
The results, published in the journal Applied Surface Mónica Alvarez de Buergo, a researcher at the Geosciences
Science, identified the origins of 45 out of 50 samples from Institute, a joint center of the Spanish Research Council and
quarries in Italy (Carrara), Greece (Thassos, Paros and Pente- Complutense University of Madrid in Spain, in a statement.
likon), and Turkey (Proconnesos, Docimium and Aphrodisias). “This helps to determine the trade routes that were used at
“The variety and quality of the marble identified highlight that point in time during the Roman Empire.”
the importance held by [Baiae] in the past seeing as it yielded Mary Caperton Morton
Ice (Re)Cap
F
rom Antarctica to the Arctic; from polar caps, permafrost
and glaciers to ocean-rafted sea ice; and from burly bears
to cold-loving microbes, fascinating science is found in
every nook and crevasse of Earth’s cryosphere, and new findings are
announced often. Here are a few of the latest updates.
The entire length of the Hayward Fault runs through densely populated cities such as
Oakland, Fremont and Berkeley (shown here), and is not far from the metropolises of San
Francisco (background) and San Jose. The U.S. Geological Survey describes the Hayward
Fault as “the single most urbanized earthquake fault in the United States.”
Credit: ©iStockphoto.com/ConstantGardner
Steven Newton
L
ast summer, a startling article appeared in The New Yorker magazine outlining
what could happen to the Pacific Northwest in the event of a large earthquake
event happened today, the results would be devastating. The article attracted a great deal of
attention, especially among people who had never heard of the possibility that the heavily
Gre
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re
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One of the most danger- Nevada
en
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re
San
connect to the Calaveras
en
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vil
Fault in the south, accord-
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ing to recent research. The
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Hetch Hetchy water sys-
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tem, which provides water San Andreas Lake
ult
San Antonio Reservoir
to San Francisco, is extraor- Fremont
Crystal Springs Reservoir
dinarily vulnerable to seis- Calaveras Reservoir
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mic disruption as it moves
Ca
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And several of the system’s
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The Pacific Northwest is not the only region of Location, Location, Location
the United States in tectonic jeopardy. The San The Hayward Fault splinters from the Calaveras
Francisco Bay Area also suffers from the unfor- Fault, which itself is an offshoot of the San Andreas
tunate confluence of large populations and active Fault, near Hollister, south of the Bay Area. All
faults. However, the nine counties of the Bay three faults are right-lateral strike-slip faults. The
Area are home to dozens of major faults — the Hayward Fault is shorter than the San Andreas,
San Andreas, the Calaveras, the Concord-Green running about 70 kilometers from Fremont to
Valley, the San Gregorio, the Rodgers Creek and Point Pinole, and is therefore not expected to pro-
the Hayward, chief among them. These very active duce the magnitude-8-plus quakes we know the
faults, which produce small quakes (mostly under San Andreas can generate. But what the Hayward
magnitude 2.5) on a daily basis as well as occa- Fault lacks in potential magnitude, it makes up
sional quake swarms — a swarm in October 2015 for with proximity to people, lying directly under
produced more than 400 small quakes in two structures where many people live and work: hos-
weeks — cut through important infrastructure in pitals, schools, retirement homes, and house after
every city in the region, potentially affecting more house after house.
than 7 million people.
Most people have heard of the San Andreas, What the Hayward Fault lacks in potential magnitude,
which they assume will be the source of the next it makes up for with proximity to people, lying directly
big quake in the Bay Area, thanks in part to Hol- under structures where many people live and work:
lywood disaster movies, such as the dreadful “San hospitals, schools, retirement homes, and house after
Andreas,” which perpetuate geologic absurdities. house after house.
Despite the notoriety of the San Andreas Fault, it is
not the greatest seismic threat to the Bay Area. East The San Andreas cuts predominantly through
of San Francisco, across the muddy, green waters remote areas, whereas the entire length of the
of San Francisco Bay, sits a smaller fracture in the Hayward Fault runs through densely populated
crust: the Hayward Fault. One day, the Hayward cities such as Oakland (pop. 406,000), Fremont
Fault could produce the greatest natural disaster (pop. 224,000) and Berkeley (pop. 116,000), and
ever to hit the United States. is not far from the metropolises of San Francisco
While some of the fault lies at a depth of 15 kilo- In Berkeley, the Hayward Fault runs beneath
meters, near the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) the University of California at Berkeley’s foot-
commuter train station in Fremont, the fault ball stadium, offsetting the south wall.
breaches the surface. The surface expression can Credit: top: Kai Schrieber, CC BY-SA 2.0; bottom:
be seen near the Fremont Main Library and the Steven Newton
Fremont Police Department, as well as two hos-
pitals. It skirts the East Bay hills, then plunges When it ruptures, the Hayward Fault will do
into downtown Hayward, where it offsets the old more than damage homes, zoos and football sta-
Hayward City Hall, creating cracks in the walls and diums: It will endanger numerous lives and likely
distinct offsets in the tile floor, and slices a retire- deal a devastating economic blow. According to the
ment home. In San Leandro, the Hayward Fault Bureau of Labor Statistics, the region is home to
runs near the Fairmont Hospital and the earthen 87,000 businesses, 1.5 million jobs and quarterly
dam holding back the Lake Chabot Reservoir. The wages nearing $25 billion; the Bay Area’s overall
entrance to the Oakland Zoo is marked by the fault; GDP would, if it were a separate country, rank as
the zoo even notes the location of the fault on its the 19th largest in the world.
grounds with a sign. In Berkeley, the fault runs Some of the most important American tech-
beneath the University of California at Berkeley’s nology companies are located near the Hayward
football stadium, where offset on the south wall Fault. The headquarters of Facebook and Google
can be seen. The fault continues north, underneath and Apple’s new “spaceship” campus are less than
residential areas and the campus of Contra Costa 20 kilometers away — all close enough for shaking
Community College. to affect the operations of the companies.
1992 Landers
1999 Hector Mine
Particularly ready faults:
Hayward
Calaveras
Rockett Drive in Fremont shows the distinctive evi- Near the Hayward Plunge swimming center,
dence of fault creep. As with all offsets on the Hay- the concrete wall of a playground is dra-
ward, the sense of movement is right-lateral; in other matically split.
words, when looking across the fault, the other side Credit: Steven Newton
appears to be moving to one’s right.
Credit: Steven Newton
Ripple Effects
HAZUS can also model how infrastructure
other than buildings will be affected by a quake.
Assessing casualties is more challenging. For For instance, it suggests that immediately after
instance, a lot depends on where people are when a magnitude-7 Hayward Fault event, out of
the quake hits. At 2 a.m., most people would be 920,502 households near the fault trace, 298,605
home asleep in wood-framed, single-family homes (32 percent) will be without water and 367,519
that are unlikely to collapse completely. But if (40 percent) will be without electricity. These losses
a quake occurred at 2 p.m. on a weekday, many are just the beginning of the infrastructure prob-
people would be at work or school in vulnerable lems a Hayward Fault quake will create. A big quake
structures constructed with brick walls and unre- in a highly populated area means that virtually
inforced masonry. The HAZUS model estimates every aspect of modern civilization — transporta-
the death toll of a 2 p.m. quake would be five times tion, gas, sewer, water, electricity, Internet access
greater than a quake occurring at 2 a.m. (The Kobe and more — will be affected.
quake occurred before 6 a.m., as did the 1994
Northridge quake and the 1906 San Francisco [HAZUS simulations] suggest that immediately
quake. It is possible that each of these quakes after a magnitude-7 Hayward Fault event, out of
could have produced higher casualties if they had 920,502 households near the fault trace, 298,605
occurred later in the day.) (32 percent) will be without water and 367,519
HAZUS predicts casualties in these ranges: (40 percent) without electricity.
The Hayward Fault breaches the surface near the BART station in Fremont.
Credit: Adam Moss, CC BY-SA 2.0
Traveling over the water will be no less difficult; infrastructure, would take months to years. While
HAZUS estimates between 43 and 78 bridges will hazard planners commonly advise Bay Area resi-
be damaged. Since many of these bridges form dents to stockpile enough water for 72 hours, the
choke-points in traffic flow, damage to even a few reality is that many areas will be cut off from water
could create epic traffic jams. However, such traf- infrastructure for far longer.
fic jams may never materialize if damage to road A further problem is flooding. Most of the Bay
infrastructure is so severe that people cannot get Area’s water is impounded in reservoirs, in hills
on the freeways at all. far out of sight and out of mind of the residents.
Each reservoir has the potential for damage and
The Hayward Fault holds the potential for great catastrophic failure. The worst flooding could hap-
devastation, but many people are only vaguely pen to the city of Fremont. The Calaveras and San
aware of the danger it poses. Antonio reservoirs store more than 180 million
cubic meters of water, perched above the city of Fre-
Long stretches of freeways in the Bay Area sit mont and its 224,000 residents. These reservoirs
near sea level, built on marshy tidal flats that will sit 8 and 11 kilometers, respectively, from traces of
almost certainly experience liquefaction during the the Hayward Fault as it passes through Fremont.
quake. If liquefaction damages even small sections The worst-case scenario is a rupture of one or
of such freeways, they become unusable. Addition- both of these reservoirs. Inundation maps based
ally, if freeway overpasses collapse or become too on ruptures from these reservoirs show the entire
damaged for vehicles to travel underneath them city of Fremont flooded, from the hills to the bay.
safely, then freeways are rendered useless. In many Underscoring this risk, the Calaveras Reservoir’s
parts of the Bay Area, these roadways represent earthen dam, constructed in 1925, has been deemed
the only feasible way to move between areas; free- so seismically vulnerable that a replacement dam
ways physically isolate some communities, with farther downstream is currently under construction.
pedestrian movement impossible between them. The Calaveras and San Antonio reservoirs are
The quake would essentially cut off large parts of part of the Hetch Hetchy water system, an improb-
the Bay Area. able Rube Goldberg-like scheme to move water
Ground movement also has the potential to from the Sierra Nevada across the Central Valley,
destroy water delivery systems at multiple lev- across the Calaveras Fault, across the Hayward
els: at the household level, with pipes breaking Fault, across the liquefaction-vulnerable marshes
and flooding homes or unsecured water heaters of the southern bay, then into two long, linear
detaching; at the neighborhood level, with breaks sag ponds: the Crystal Springs and San Andreas
in municipal water lines or water mains; and at the reservoirs. (The latter gave its name to the fault
city level, with municipal water treatment plants when it was first recognized in 1895.) The Hetch
failing or reservoirs and dams rupturing. Repairs Hetchy water system is extraordinarily vulnerable
for many of these problems, which involve digging to seismic disruption. Unfortunately, it is also the
up streets and rebuilding major parts of the water prime water source for San Francisco.
Timothy Oleson
G
liding through pitch- In the California Borderland region the San Andreas is,” says MBARI marine
black waters 50 meters just off the state’s southern coast, for geologist Charles Paull. “Some of the big
off the ocean bottom, the example, detailed bathymetry has faults are right offshore.”
“D. Allan B” can sense the helped researchers piece together a
seafloor below in striking clarity, despite clearer picture of the complex array of
the darkness. In its backyard off the faults that parallel the shoreline. These Only a tiny fraction of the
California coast, the 5-meter-long, tor- offshore faults were formed by the same seafloor has been surveyed so
pedo-shaped autonomous underwater tectonic forces that created well-known far at meter-scale resolution.
vehicle (AUV) operated by the Monte- faults on land like the San Andreas and Rounding off, it’s about
rey Bay Aquarium Research Institute San Jacinto, but a reliable view of the zero percent.
(MBARI) has surveyed submarine positions and sizes of the offshore faults — Charles Paull, Monterey Bay
topography ranging from deep canyons — let alone their past movements or Aquarium Research Institute
incising the continental shelf to sub- the potential hazards they pose — has
tle scarps weaving through blankets of eluded scientists. Yet, these Borderland
ocean-bottom sediments. Since enter- faults — the Palos Verdes and San Diego Much remains to be learned about the
ing operation about a decade ago, the Trough faults to name a couple — are tectonics off California, but high-resolu-
AUV’s mapping prowess — it can dis- thought to accommodate as much as tion, AUV-acquired maps of the seafloor
tinguish features less than a meter wide 15 to 20 percent of the motion between have allowed Paull and his colleagues to
and just 10 centimeters tall, a level of the Pacific and North American plates. locate fault traces with far greater accu-
precision that rivals NASA’s Mars-map- “That’s not insignificant, particularly racy and even determine slip rates and
ping HiRISE camera — has become an in Southern California where you’re past seismicity on some, information
integral tool in MBARI’s efforts to study dealing with potentially very large faults that should improve hazard assessments
Earth’s surface beneath the waves. that are closer to the urban centers than for the state.
The rugged Taurus Mountains meet the Mediterranean Sea along Turkey’s Turquoise Coast.
Credit: Terri Cook and Lon Abbott
Travels in Geology
We visited Turkey in June 2015, prior to the like to visit historic sites, and the kids prefer to skip
heightening of the Syrian refugee crisis. At the the history in favor of a pizza or ice cream stop. Tur-
time, there were few security concerns, but due to key’s Turquoise Coast — where the rugged Taurus
recent turmoil, the U.S. Department of State has Mountains meet the Mediterranean Sea — offers all
issued a travel warning encouraging Americans to of this and more, making it the perfect destination
avoid visiting southeastern Turkey and warning of to satisfy the diverse tastes of any group of travelers.
heightened threats from terrorist groups through-
out the country. At press time, none of the areas
covered in this article were within the State Depart- Where the Mountains Meet
ment’s advised avoidance area. However, it’s best the Sea
to frequently check the State Department website The Turquoise Coast stretches for more than
(https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en.html) 500 kilometers from Anamur in the east to the area
prior to your trip and sign up for their travel alerts around Bodrum, where the Aegean Sea blends into
in case additional warnings are posted. the Mediterranean. The region owes its breathtak-
T
ing scenery to the complex tectonic plate boundary
rip planning in our family of four can be on which it lies. Here, the Anatolian Microplate is
a slightly contentious affair. Two of us moving to the west, escaping the vice-like collision
love to lounge on sandy beaches, whereas occurring between the much larger African and
the other two favor hiking to mountain Eurasian plates. This collision, which closed most
summits and camping beneath the stars. The adults of the ancient Tethys Sea beginning in the Late
0 km 100
Aladaglar
National Park
Selge
Perge
Termessos Aspendos
Dalaman Mersin
Antalya Caves of
Oludeniz Side Heaven
Myra Chimaera and Hell Kizkalesi
Demre
Patara
Mamure
Kas Ucagiz Anamur Castle
BULGARIA GEORGIA
MACEDONIA
Istanbul The Taurus Mountains, which
ALBANIA begin in central Turkey, are
Ankara ARMENIA
a good jumping-off point for
GREECE TURKEY
Izmir
Cappadocia a visit to the Turquoise Coast.
Credit: Terri Cook and Lon Abbott
Antalya
SYRIA IRAQ
CYPRUS
Cretaceous, appended multiple tectonic fragments, small component of compression (this combina-
known as terranes, to the Turkish continental mar- tion is called transpression), which causes crustal
gin. Bits of oceanic crust and underlying mantle, thickening. The individual sub-ranges within the
called ophiolites, typically mark ancient sutures. sprawling Taurus mountain chain have been raised
The collision zone’s enormous compressional forces where transpression has occurred.
heaped the area’s rocks into a series of giant recum- Ultimately, these tectonic contortions have
bent folds, which stack atop one another like giant created a landscape that is both spectacular and
breaking waves. After the last terrane collision, geographically complex. We couldn’t wait to explore
the area subsided beneath the sea, allowing Mio- the myriad impressive ruins left behind by the many
cene-aged marine limestone to be deposited on top Mediterranean civilizations that have called the
of the contorted folds. Turquoise Coast home.
The region re-emerged above the Mediterra-
nean waves about 8 million years ago when the
Taurus Mountains were uplifted. By that time, The Aladaglar: Crest of the
the Anatolian Microplate’s westward motion was Taurus Mountains
being accommodated by two major strike-slip We began our adventure close to the Cappadocia
faults, the North Anatolian and East Anatolian, region, a bit inland from the Turquoise Coast, in
which bound the fertile Anatolian Plateau to the the heart of the impressive Taurus Mountains: the
north and southeast, respectively. (These faults are Aladaglar Range. There, transpression along the
active today, posing the greatest natural hazard to Ecemis Fault raised the towering limestone peaks
Istanbul and other areas of Turkey.) Several other of the Aladaglar to a lofty 3,700 meters, making it
important strike-slip faults form subsidiary splays the highest of the Taurus ranges and the centerpiece
off the two main ones. Although these splays mainly of Aladaglar National Park. An ice cap there during
accommodate the horizontal sliding characteristic the Pleistocene fed glaciers up to 17 kilometers long
of strike-slip faults, many of them also feature a that carved the range’s deep, U-shaped valleys that
The 13th-century
Mamure Castle still
has 39 towers and
an intact moat,
making it the largest
of the many Cilician
fortresses along the
Turquoise Coast.
Credit: both: Terri Cook
and Lon Abbott
today are studded with alpine lakes. Several premier Once we reached the Mediterranean Sea, the
trekking routes loop through the range’s alpine Caves of Heaven and Hell, a few kilometers west
grandeur, and rock climbers flock to the range to test of Mersin, were our first destination. Both are
their skills on the steep walls of Tethyan limestone. massive sinkholes formed by dissolution of the
We stayed in a tiny village called Cukarbag, Turquoise Coast’s abundant limestone bedrock. You
where we settled into a cozy cabin at the Aladaglar can marvel at the 120-meter-deep Pit of Hell from
Camping Bungalow run by two climbers who know a platform built out over the abyss. According to
every trek and every rock climb in these moun- legend, Zeus imprisoned the fire-breathing monster
tains. Their expertise helped us organize several Typhon in this pit after vanquishing him in battle.
delightful days of trekking through the stark lime- You can also descend into the Chasm of Heaven
stone landscape. down 450 treacherously slippery steps, passing
a fifth-century Byzantine chapel en route. In the
Cave of Typhon, the deepest part of the chasm, we
Cilicia’s Crusader Castles and heard an eerie sound, like the gurgling of a river,
Roman Ruins making it easy to understand why the legendary
From Cukarbag, we headed south to the east- River Styx is said to begin on the other side of the
ernmost portion of the rugged Turquoise Coast, cavern’s limestone walls.
which, similar to Italy’s Amalfi Coast, is marked by a Just west of the caves, the rugged coastline
beautiful drive that traverses pine-covered hills and bulges southward, reaching toward the island of
precipitous gorges. The pass from interior Turkey Cyprus. Along this coast, in A.D. 1080, Armenians
through the Taurus Mountains, known as the Cili- fleeing the Turkish advance on the crumbling Byz-
cian Gates, has historically been a strategic choke antine Empire founded the Kingdom of Cilicia
point. The town that guards its southern entrance, (Lesser Armenia) amid the relative sanctuary of
Mersin (ancient Yumuktepe), dates to 4500 B.C., the coastal mountains. Cilician science and cul-
making it one of the world’s oldest fortified settle- ture thrived in the succeeding centuries, and the
ments. Travelers and armies have passed through Cilicians built a series of stout castles that later
the gates for millennia, including such luminaries served as safe havens for Christian armies on their
as Alexander the Great and Saint Paul. journeys east during the Crusades.
Cook (www.down2earthscience.com) is a
science and travel writer based in Colorado
and an EARTH roving correspondent. Abbott
is a geology professor at the University of Col-
orado at Boulder.
AGI
american
geosciences
institute
connecting earth, science, and people
T
he catastrophic collapse of the St. Francis Dam, located 80 kilometers
north of downtown Los Angeles and east of the town of Santa Clarita, just
before midnight on March 12, 1928, claimed more than 400 lives when
towering floodwaters destroyed homes, bridges and farmland, as they
swept through downstream communities. The disaster was initially blamed on the
failure of the west abutment, anchored in soft conglomerate rock. Additional studies
have revised this explanation, with recent research citing other geologic and design
factors that likely contributed. Regardless, the collapse effectively ended the career
of William Mulholland, the self-taught engineer whose 1913 Owens Valley Aqueduct
made the explosive growth of Los Angeles possible. Yet, despite the magnitude of
the disaster and its impact on local and national policy, it has been almost entirely
forgotten, except by a few historians.
In “Floodpath: The Deadliest Man-Made Disaster of 20th-Century America
and the Making of Modern Los Angeles,” author Jon Wilkman explores this lit-
tle-known episode of California history and the decades-long efforts of scientists,
engineers and historians to discover what really happened that night. Wilkman, an
award-winning filmmaker who spent more than 20 years researching the disaster
with his late wife and partner, Nancy, is currently working on a documentary as a
follow-up to the book. He recently spoke with EARTH about his efforts to shed new
light on the disaster.
AN: What was your goal in writing resources and water. All of those were “Floodpath: The Deadliest Man-
the book? factors in the technical mechanism of the Made Disaster of 20th-Century
JW: My goal in writing the book was collapse, beyond the forces of geology or America and the Making of Mod-
to take a surprisingly unknown story an engineering failure. ern Los Angeles,” by Jon Wilkman,
and put it in its proper historical sig- Bloomsbury Press, 2016, ISBN-13:
nificance and context; at the minimum, AN: You grew up about 30 kilo- 978-1620409152.
to honor those who had died and been meters away from the ruins of the
forgotten. At the same time, it’s not just dam. But you say that it was never survivors and eyewitnesses. Some of
an old story. I wanted to engage people mentioned in school, is that right? them had never been asked what hap-
dramatically and intellectually to the JW: I grew up in Los Angeles. It was pened to them. I also realized that there
point where they can apply what they never mentioned by anybody. This is was another layer of obscurity: I began,
learn in the book to issues that are quite a story with an enormous impact not really for the first time, to interview
vital today. only on Los Angeles, but California and some of the Mexican-American workers
the rest of the country. But few have who had been personally affected by the
AN: What is the one piece of infor- heard of it. I began thinking: What really catastrophe but had been largely over-
mation that is most valuable for happened here? And even more of a looked in the intervening years. Many of
people to learn from the book? mystery: Why don’t we know about it? them were young people, children at the
JW: Science and technology do not This was the second biggest disaster time, but they remembered the flood.
exist in a vacuum separate from social, in California after the 1906 San Fran-
political, economic and personal factors. cisco earthquake and fire. But this was AN: So, growing up, you had
This may seem obvious, but so often peo- a man-made disaster. So I just had to not heard about the St. Francis
ple forget that, and the St. Francis Dam look into it. Dam, but did you learn about Wil-
story is connected to the growth of the [Researching the book] took a long, liam Mulholland?
city, the rapid evolution of technology, long time. Early on, I noticed that the JW: Yes, I knew about him. I knew
the powerful personality of one man, the people who had witnessed this were there was a Mulholland Drive and I knew
political and economic struggles over dying, so as early as 1995, I interviewed there was a Mulholland Fountain, but
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I
n the small French town of
Gonesse in August 1783, a
large, spherical and nebulous
object painted with red and yellow
stripes fell from the sky and began
fluttering about on the ground. The
town’s peasants, fearful, attacked
the object with pitchforks, and then
tied it to a horse’s tail to be dragged
through the streets.
The invader, it was later discovered, was
Le Globe — the first hydrogen-powered
balloon. Le Globe’s inventor, French sci-
entist Jacques Charles, had built it shortly
after two French brothers, Joseph-Michel
and Jacques-Étienne Montgolfier, had A crowd of peasants attacked the first hydrogen balloon in Gonesse,
launched the first public hot-air balloon France, in August 1783.
only a few months earlier on June 4. Credit: public domain
Balloons lifting
off at Albuquer-
que’s annual
Balloon Fiesta.
Credit: a4gpa, CC
BY-SA 2.0
you are because you can see what the In the 1980s, balloons recorded some of
other guy is doing behind his lines,” the first measurements that helped sci-
Crouch says. entists discover a hole in the ozone layer
The scientific utility of balloons also above Antarctica.
eventually became apparent. In 1896, Human-piloted balloon flights, flown
French meteorologist Léon Teisserenc for pleasure, are now widespread. One
de Bort, who is credited with discovering of the best places to find them is in
the stratosphere and the tropopause, New Mexico at the annual Albuquerque
began launching the first weather bal- International Balloon Fiesta, held every
loons from his observatory in Trappes, October, where hundreds of parti-col-
France. Today, hundreds of weather bal- ored balloons — many as extravagant
loons, carrying instrument arrays called as the one the Montgolfiers sent up
sondes, are launched every 12 hours for the French royalty 233 years ago —
from locations around the world. Other take flight.
initiatives, like NASA’s scientific bal-
Launch of a NASA balloon from the loon program, which was founded in Joel is a freelance science writer
Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility the 1960s and 1970s, send unmanned based in Ann Arbor, Mich. You
in New Mexico. instrumented balloons floating into the can find more of his writing at
Credit: NASA/JHU APL highest reaches of the upper atmosphere. www.lvjwriter.com.
** Kindle files can be read on a Kindle e-reader. They can also be read in Amazon Kindle for PC or
Amazon Kindle for Mac, software that you can download for free to your Windows or Mac computer.
G
rowing up in California during the Space Race, Thomas Berger was fasci-
nated with aeronautics and aviation, so when he arrived at the University
of California at Berkeley, physics seemed like the natural choice. After
graduating with a degree in engineering physics, Berger took a job with Lockheed
Aircraft in Burbank. But he soon decided it was not for him and returned to graduate
school at Stanford, where he discovered a new passion: solar physics.
His first job out of graduate school was, ironically, back at Lockheed Martin,
where, this time, he stayed for 15 years primarily developing magnetograph instru-
mentation for ground- and space-based solar telescopes. In 2012, he moved to the
National Solar Observatory in Sunspot, N.M., as the project scientist on the Daniel
K. Inouye Solar Telescope under construction on Haleakala Volcano in Hawaii.
In August 2014, Berger was appointed director of NOAA’s National Space
Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), in Boulder, Colo., which is responsible for Thomas Berger is director of NOAA’s
monitoring and forecasting solar and geomagnetic events that can impact satel- National Space Weather Prediction
lites, power grids, GPS, communications, navigation and many other technologies Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colo.
Credit: NOAA/SWPC
that modern societies rely upon. He took the helm at SWPC at a critical time for
the space weather community: the government was developing the country’s first
space weather strategy, and critical gaps had emerged in the system of satellites
that comprise Earth’s space weather sentinel.
Berger recently spoke to EARTH about the importance of open data in maximizing
our return on “big science” investments like telescopes, the role of international
cooperation in funding satellite missions, and what is needed to ensure our ability
to predict a severe geomagnetic storm.
SEP: Who influenced your early interest data. And we also operated the telescope in a way
in science? that was different from a lot of previous missions in
TB: My father, a doctor, was also very interested astrophysics and solar physics. We used what’s been
in physics and astronomy. But probably the most called “service mode,” in which the telescope was
influential element in my early life, in terms of continually doing different [observing] programs
science, was the original Exploratorium in San proposed by the community; and the proposal pro-
Francisco. There was no admission fee; you just cess was very easy. You just had to fill out a form
walked in, and there were all these things sitting saying, “I would like Hinode to observe this location
around on the floor like a giant warehouse full of at this time using these instruments,” and we would
physics toys. It was really just a wide open experi- do it. Then your data would show up immediately
mental space, which was wonderful for kids. after that at the data center. So you didn’t have to
put in a lengthy proposal, you weren’t in charge
SEP: At Lockheed you worked on the Hinode of running the telescope, and you didn’t have to
project — a Japanese mission to fly a tele- go to the control center, which is the “principal
scope to observe the sun. What lessons from investigator” model.
that work did you try to implement at the This had been done with other satellites as
National Solar Observatory? well, including some NASA satellites for solar
TB: One thing about Hinode that is very good is observing. But this was very controversial for the
that the data are rapidly made publicly available. ground-based [telescope] community, which was
We had a very good pipeline from the telescope entrenched in the principal investigator mode,
to the data center where people could pick up the where you have a small group of people taking and
essentially sitting on those data; and the number of and the solar magnetic field conditions, and any-
papers that came out based on the data from those body on the ground who’s using GPS and/or the
missions was quite meager. power grid. We all rely on the power grid, which is
As soon as you give the data to the public, there potentially vulnerable to a large-scale geomagnetic
is an amplifying effect on your return on investment storm. Satellites are also a consideration: You can
in the telescope. The number of papers out of the short out a satellite because of electron pileup just
Hinode mission in six years was many times that due to solar wind changes.
produced by ground-based solar telescopes, which There are a lot of things we need to do on a
had never been used in service mode until Hinode daily basis to monitor the solar wind and the solar
showed the way. weather, but we also can’t lose sight of looking out
for the “big one” as part of our mission.
SEP: Why do we need to predict space
weather? Who needs to know about it? SEP: Why did it take so long for the U.S. to
TB: Space weather prediction, in my view, develop a space weather strategy?
is analogous to a combination of hurricane and TB: It wasn’t until the ‘70s that it became obvious
tsunami forecasting. It’s a constantly changing that if we had a really big geomagnetic storm, such as
phenomenon, and there is space weather that is last occurred in May 1921, which blew out the New
significant outside of just the extreme events — York City subway switching system and disrupted
smaller storms that occur regularly. But it’s really telegraph service nationwide, you could potentially
the big storms that occur due to huge eruptions on have a wide-scale, prolonged blackout. The farther
the sun that we can’t yet predict that we have to north you go, the stronger these geomagnetically
watch out for. The biggest driver of space weather induced currents are, so it’s conceivable that Wash-
on Earth is the sun. But we’re finding, as we develop ington, D.C., could be hit, requiring the government
models of the ionosphere [the upper layer of Earth’s to move. And any time you require the government
atmosphere that interacts primarily with the solar to move, under what’s called the continuity of gov-
wind], that the lower atmosphere of Earth — the ernment scenario, that’s a big deal.
troposphere and stratosphere — also has to be In 2012, President Obama asked John Holdren,
included in models because waves in those regions his science advisor, to develop a new national
propagate up into the ionosphere and rearrange strategy specifically to ensure that we can predict,
it. You have to understand the entire system of mitigate and respond to an extreme geomagnetic
Earth’s atmosphere, Earth’s magnetic field, and storm. The strategy deals with what we would do
Earth’s interactions with solar wind and with the as a nation if we got hit with one of these extreme
solar magnetic field. geomagnetic storms that could potentially black out
The major [consumers of space weather fore- large portions of the country and damage the grid
casts] are anybody operating in space, obviously, to the point where it would take weeks, or perhaps
who needs to know about the solar wind conditions even months, to get it back up.
politicians need to answer: How much money do SEP: What’s the role of international coop-
we spend on probabilistic events, events that may eration in these missions?
or may not occur in our lifetimes, but if they do, TB: These deep-space missions are very expen-
could be extremely severe? That balance is, I think, sive. For example, DSCOVR has a nominal five-year
very difficult to achieve. lifetime. Hopefully, by 2020, perhaps 2022, NOAA
will launch its replacement, which will include a
SEP: Why is the Deep Space Climate Obser- coronagraph. However, NOAA has not committed
vatory (DSCOVR) mission, which you to launching a mission to the L5 Lagrangian point
worked on and which launched in February due to cost constraints, for example. Fortunately,
2015, important? international partners, such as the U.K. Met Office,
TB: DSCOVR is the first operational space which also runs a 24/7 space weather forecast-
weather satellite dedicated to space weather oper- ing service, are looking at launching a mission
ated by NOAA, not NASA. So it’s a huge milestone to the L5 orbit that would complement NOAA’s
in that sense. It represents a big step in the direction L1 mission.
of [making] space weather prediction a national That’s the ideal scenario in terms of international
priority, like what the National Weather Service cooperation. NOAA takes care of one requirement,
does — 24/7, absolutely reliable communications and the international community supplies others,
of predictions of environmental effects. But that and we eventually end up with a system of senti-
means we need dedicated instrumentation just like nels in positions to give us good CME predictions
weather satellites. And DSCOVR is the first step in through international cooperation.
achieving that.
DSCOVR was developed from the repurposed SEP: When was the last time you saw an
Triana spacecraft, originally designed just to view aurora, and can you appreciate them aes-
Earth. It was never intended to have a large number thetically, or do you just think about the
of solar instruments on board, and a coronagraph potential danger?
unfortunately could not be accommodated. In TB: Well, actually, it’s funny. That’s a good
the end, DSCOVR has solar wind measurement question, and the answer, which is uncomfortable
instruments, which are very important because to provide, is: I’ve never seen an aurora. I’ve always
as that eruption comes sweeping by the DSCOVR wanted to. On transatlantic or transpacific flights, I
spacecraft, it takes another 15 to 30 minutes before always try to position my seat at a window so that
the satellite signal gets to Earth. So it at least gives I can look north. I think it would be fantastic, but
you that 15-to-30-minute warning time, but if you I haven’t had the chance to make a dedicated trip
don’t have a coronagraph looking at the eruption to see one yet.
as it comes off the sun, you won’t be able to gauge
how fast it’s going and when it’s going to arrive. Pratt is senior editor of EARTH.
CAREER OPPORTUNITIES season begins on June 11. August 6 But EARTH welcomes applicants of all
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Philmont Scout Ranch is one of geology of the area at http://pubs. In any given week or month when you
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applications (you have to be a scout, Most of our externs have backgrounds study or report, and include quotes
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“Within an eight-hour
drive of any point in
southern California,
you may view the
results of almost
every type of geologic
process, from desert
erosion to glaciation,
from ancient to recent
volcanism, and from
prehistoric landslides
to active earthquake
faults.”
—FROM THE INTRODUCTION
OF Roadside Geology of
Southern California
Mountain Press 6 x 9, full color
P U B L I S H I N G CO M PA N Y
P.O. Box 2399 • Missoula, MT 59806 • 406-728-1900 400 pages
800-234-5308 • info @mtnpress.com
www.mountain-press.com $26.00
OUTSTANDING IN OUR FIELD
AGI Foundation Leadership AGI Foundation Trustees: John A. Adamick, TGS-NOPEC Geophysical
Chair: Richard M. Powers, Company • John J. Amoruso, Legends Exploration • Ronald G. Amundson,
Consultant/AMEC-BCI (Ret.) Univ. of California • Bruce S. Appelbaum, Mosaic Resources • Michael J.
Vice Chair: Daniel D. Domeracki, Schlumberger Baranovic, Shell (Ret.) • Steven R. Bell, CASA Exploration • C. Scott Cameron,
Shell Energy Resources Co. (Ret.) • Peter D. Carragher, BP America, Inc. (Ret.)
Secretary: Stephen M. Cassiani, ExxonMobil (Ret.)
• William E. Crain, Chevron (Ret.) • Scot Evans, Halliburton • William L. Fisher,
Treasurer: William A. Van Wie,
Univ. of Texas at Austin • Michael C. Forrest, Shell (Ret.) • William E. Gipson,
Devon Energy Corp. (Ret.)
Gas Investments/Gas Fund Inc. • Priscilla C. Grew, Univ. of Nebraska State
Interim Executive Director: P. Patrick Leahy, AGI Museum (Ret.) • Elwyn C. Griffiths, ExxonMobil (Ret.) • Charles G. Groat,
The Water Institute of the Gulf • James W. Handschy, ConocoPhillips (Ret.)
• Jeffrey J. Heppermann, Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. • G. Warfield Hobbs IV,
Ammonite Resources • Ernest Leyendecker, Anadarko • Kate C. Miller,
AGI Foundation
Texas A&M Univ. • James H. Painter, Cobalt International Energy • Thomas
P. Patrick Leahy
E. Scoulios, Polarcus US, Inc. • John N. Seitz, GulfSlope Energy, Inc. • Mark
AGIF Interim Executive Director W. Shuster, Shell Energy Resources Company • Berry H. Tew Jr., Geological
c/o American Geosciences Institute Survey of Alabama • M. Ray Thomasson, Thomasson Partner Associates •
4220 King Street, Alexandria, VA 22302 Jack C. Threet, Shell Oil Co. (Ret.) • Scott W. Tinker, Texas Bureau of Economic
[email protected] Geology • Nick Way, ExxonMobil Exploration Co. • Paul Weimer, Univ. of
www.agifoundation.org Colorado • Kane C. Weiner, Texas Crude, LLC • Lawrence P. Wilding, Texas
Tel: (703) 379-2480 A&M Univ. • John Willott, ExxonMobil (Ret.)
page 63 • June 2016 • EARTH • www.earthmagazine.org
Geologic Column
O
ne might think ice age history how geologic events had shaped each We continue to do what we have
an unlikely topic for a pop- one. Glaciers had advanced down the done annually for the last 25 years: give
ular science book, but our Hudson Valley and then rose up into the dozens of talks and write about 70 geol-
2012 book, “The Hudson Val- Catskills. They had shaped the Catskill ogy columns, which are syndicated in
ley in the Ice Age,” seems to have struck Escarpment and many of the area’s regional weekly, monthly and quarterly
a chord with the public. Over the last few lakes. As the glaciers were melting, tor- publications. These, along with the book,
years, we have built upon our success to rents of meltwater eroded picturesque our talks and trail guides, have opened
highlight local awareness of our Hudson gorges and canyons. The artists were doors for us to communicate with the
Valley and Catskills regional geology. drawn to these scenic locations, most of general public about our local geology.
We thought our story might encourage them not realizing that the ice age was We believe that we continue to reach
others to undertake similar efforts in responsible for their raw beauty. many people who may not otherwise
their own communities. We have also partnered with local ever be exposed to geology, and help
It began when our book was included civic groups, such as area land con- make them aware of the role geology
on a list of Christmas gift suggestions servancies, which are dedicated to has had in shaping our regional culture.
by an Albany television station, which preserving parcels of land and keep- We encourage you to reach out to
soon afterward invited us to appear on ing them free of development. Their those constituencies in your commu-
one of their Sunday morning interview members form a natural constituency nity who perhaps wouldn’t otherwise
shows. After that, the speaking invi- for geology outreach. Land conser- be exposed to geology and to find new
tations started pouring in: first from vancy members generally feel a strong ways to share your knowledge with them.
local libraries, then historical societies, attachment to the land, but often do not It won’t make you rich, but at the end
environmental groups, hiking clubs, art have in-depth knowledge of its geologic of the day, you will feel good.
museums and book stores. history. Thus, they make for extremely
We were even asked to speak at a responsive audiences, and such groups Robert Titus is a professor of geol-
meeting of a kidney research association; are often looking to sponsor events for ogy at Hartwick College in Oneonta,
they had heard about us while looking their members, typically including lec- N.Y., and Johanna Titus is a professor
for interesting speakers outside of med- tures and nature walks. of biology at Dutchess Community
icine. We developed an ice age hike for When the Woodstock Land Conser- College in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. They
the annual Hudson River Valley Ramble, vancy — founded to protect an especially are celebrating 25 years of writing
a series of events celebrating the region’s scenic cornfield that was threatened by regular geology columns for Kaatskill
cultural and natural history. developers — was planning to celebrate Life magazine, the Columbia-Greene
Because our book discussed how ice their 25th anniversary, they invited us Media newspaper chain and the
age landscapes inspired the landscape to speak. You can imagine their surprise Woodstock Times, and recently pub-
painters of the Hudson River School of and pleasure when we informed them lished their 800th column. The authors
Art, as well as many of America’s pio- that their treasured cornfield had once can be contacted at randjtitus@
neering landscape architects, we were been an ice age lake. Another of their prodigy.net. Join them on their Face-
also able to reach the artistic community. properties, Sloan Gorge, had formed as book page at: The Catskill Geologist.
This led to speaking invitations from an ice age meltwater spillway. We vol- The views expressed are their own.
the Albany Institute of History and Art unteered to make this a formal geology
and the Roosevelt Presidential Library trail and worked with the conservancy
in Hyde Park. to create a trail guide for self-guided
It also led to our contribution to the tours. Today, it’s one of their most vis-
Hudson River School Art Trail, which ited preserves. We did much the same
highlights many of the most important for the Columbia Land Conservancy, for
sites and views painted by artists like which we led a geology walk on one of
Thomas Cole, Frederic Erwin Church their properties on the east bank of the
and Asher Durand. We visited Art Trail Hudson River. That property had once
locations and put together accounts of been on the floor of Glacial Lake Albany. Credit: Linda Post
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